Developers and apartment buyers have a narrowing window of opportunity before Brisbane's Olympic infrastructure pipeline begins competing directly with residential construction, pushing up costs, tightening labour supply and making new projects increasingly difficult to deliver.

While Brisbane's apartment market continues to benefit from strong population growth and limited housing supply, industry research suggests the years leading up to 2027 could prove to be the most important period for developers looking to secure builders and buyers hoping to purchase before the next wave of price increases.

A new Colliers report, Brisbane 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games: Creating Solutions, highlights the scale of the challenge. While thousands of new homes are planned across South East Queensland, the Brisbane Olympic Athletes Village alone will deliver more than 10,500 beds during the Games before being converted into around 1,750 to 2,000 apartments. Equivalent to almost two years of typical inner-city apartment supply, the project will also absorb a significant share of the construction workforce and building materials.

The broader construction pipeline paints an even clearer picture.

Construction Skills Queensland's Horizon 2032 report forecasts Queensland's annual construction pipeline will average $69 billion over the coming years before peaking at $75 billion in 2027-28. Demand for construction workers is expected to increase by 17 per cent to almost 150,000 people, with the industry facing an annual shortfall of around 19,000 workers that could blow out to as many as 35,000 during the peak construction period.

The Olympic venues, athletes village and supporting infrastructure will account for billions of dollars worth of work across South East Queensland through to 2032, creating intense competition for labour at a time when Australia's residential construction sector is already under pressure.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150489 project_image_fid=373834]

Colliers Queensland Residential Director Andrew Scriven said the convergence of these projects is creating a clear window of opportunity for both developers and buyers.

"From 2027 onwards, the market will shift dramatically," Scriven said.

"Labour will increasingly be locked into government-led infrastructure and Olympic projects, which means private residential developments will face higher costs and tighter margins. The developers who move now are the ones most likely to get projects off the ground."

Scriven said the same dynamic would also affect buyers, with fewer apartment projects expected to launch once construction capacity tightens.

"If you're looking to change your lifestyle over the next five years, now is your window of opportunity to buy."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150713 project_image_fid=373827]

Developers are already positioning themselves ahead of that window.

Following the success of Monarch at Toowong, Consolidated Properties is preparing to launch two new Brisbane apartment projects in the second half of 2026. They include <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/gloriette-30-bedivere-street-yeerongpilly-qld-4105">Gloriette</a> at Yeerongpilly Green, a 25-storey tower within one of Brisbane's key Olympic precincts, and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/castile-47-skyring-terrace-newstead-qld-4006">Castile</a>, a recently approved 25-storey riverfront development at 47 Skyring Terrace in Newstead.

Hutchinson Builders will deliver both projects, with early works already underway at Yeerongpilly and Newstead expected to commence later this year.

The timing comes as Brisbane's fundamentals continue to strengthen, with strong interstate migration, population growth and vacancy rates remaining below 1.5 per cent.

Colliers Queensland researcher Pragya Sharma said Greater Brisbane is forecast to require around 40,000 new apartments between 2021 and 2031.

"There's a real mismatch emerging between when housing is needed and when it will be feasible to build," Sharma said.

"As a result, the period leading up to 2027 presents a key window of opportunity for developers to secure approvals, funding and construction capacity, while buyers will have greater choice before supply constraints intensify."

Colliers research outlines a critical pre-2027 window to start residential projects before labour squeeze: now is the time to buy

Joel Robinson

Developers, buyers on watch in South East Queensland ahead of construction crunch: Colliers

It's taken less than nine months for developer Sherpa Property Group to sell out all 51 apartments in its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-oasis-palm-beach-7-9-sixth-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Oasis</a> development in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/palm-beach-qld-4221">Palm Beach</a>, over a year before its anticipated completion.

&nbsp;

Located at 7-9 Sixth Avenue, the $67 million development has resonated strongly with both local owner-occupiers and downsizers seeking high-quality apartments within walking distance of the beach, dining precincts and everyday amenities.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357458]

Christie Leet, Founder of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sherpa-property-group">Sherpa Group</a>, said the sell-out reflected both the strength of the Palm Beach market and the success of Sherpa's community-first approach to development.

"The sell-out of Oasis is a fantastic outcome and reinforces the strong demand we're seeing for thoughtfully designed apartments in lifestyle locations," Leet said.

"From the outset, our vision was to create a development that genuinely enhanced the Palm Beach community while providing residents with exceptional homes and wellness-focused amenities.

"We've been incredibly encouraged by the level of local support throughout the campaign, 72.5 per cent of buyers are locals, with a significant proportion of purchasers choosing Oasis as their future home rather than an investment."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357463]

Construction is now progressing following development approval, with trusted builder LPS Group delivering the project and completion anticipated in Q3 2027.

Oasis forms part of Sherpa Group's successful Flourish collection, which has become recognised for its focus on wellness, community and elevated coastal living.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357469]

Residents will have private access to a rooftop amenity space featuring a pool, gym, sauna, steam room, hot and cold plunge pools, spa and barbecue facilities.

"The success of Oasis demonstrates that buyers continue to prioritise quality, location and lifestyle," Leet said.

"We are proud to have delivered a project that has resonated so strongly with the market and look forward to bringing Oasis to life for our future residents."

Sherpa recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-palm-beach-1150-1160-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a>, its third instalment of the Flourish brand in Palm Beach following Flourish Oasis and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/amargo-6-12-sixth-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Amargo</a>.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=151449]

Sherpa sells out Flourish Oasis in booming Palm Beach

Urban Property Group's <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/la-vera-macquarie-park-94-talavera-road-macquarie-park-nsw-2113">La Vera</a> is leading the next phase of Macquarie Park's residential evolution, with the new apartment development set to become the first of several new apartment projects in the precinct to complete.

The 169-apartment building has now topped out ahead of its scheduled completion in the third quarter of 2026, as new residential investment continues to reshape one of Sydney's largest employment hubs into a true mixed-use precinct.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=368645]

Cox Architecture has designed La Vera to capture the best of its unique positioning on Talavera Road, orienting the building towards Lane Cove National Park.&nbsp;The building features a sculpted northern façade with flowing curves inspired by the surrounding landscape, while its city-facing elevation adopts a more structured architectural expression to maximise skyline views.

"The vision for the project was to conceive a building that adopted an organic and curvilinear form to the northern portion that faces the Lane Cove National Park," <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">Cox Architecture</a> Director Felipe Miranda said.

"The residents that reside in the northern portion of the building benefit by having beautifully crafted curved balconies that speak to the natural context and heighten the relationship of their internal living spaces to the external balconies."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=358802]

La Vera offers a diverse mix of one, two, three, and four-bedroom configurations, with prices currently starting from $740,000. Buyers so far have been a mix of Sydney-based investors,&nbsp;metro commuters, owner-occupiers and downsizers from surrounding North Shore suburbs.

Both investors and owner-occupiers have been drawn to La Vera's proximity to Macquarie University, Macquarie University Hospital, Macquarie Centre and the Sydney Metro, infrastructure that supports both strong rental demand and a convenient lifestyle for residents.

The apartments feature full-height glazing, timber flooring throughout living areas, stone kitchen benchtops, SMEG appliances, floor-to-ceiling bathroom tiling and ducted air conditioning.

Residents will have access to a rooftop recreation level featuring a swimming pool, sauna, barbecue facilities and landscaped relaxation areas, complemented by additional communal space at ground level. Many apartments enjoy uninterrupted views across Lane Cove National Park, reinforcing the project's connection to its natural setting.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=364551]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a>, a family-owned developer and builder with nearly four decades of experience, holds a 4.5-star iCIRT rating and was Australia's first developer to introduce 10-Year Latent Defects Insurance (LDI). La Vera is the first apartment development in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/macquarie-park-nsw-2113">Macquarie Park</a> approved to offer the additional insurance protection, alongside a five-year warranty on SMEG appliances.

Urban Property Group CEO Patrick Elias said the additional protection reflects changing buyer expectations in the off the plan market.

"Consumers are a lot more weary and a lot more concerned in buying off the plan than they ever have been. Having LDI is a tool to portray the confidence that we have in our product, and a confidence we want buyers to share," Elias said.

Following completion of the building later this year, buyers will move into their apartments well before Christmas.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134951]

La Vera closes in on completion as Macquarie Park continues residential transformation

Brisbane developer Red &amp; Co's decision to include dual key apartments in its debut Gold Coast apartment development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/como-varsity-lakes-22-lake-street-varsity-lakes-qld-4227">COMO Varsity Lakes</a>, is proving to be one of the project's biggest drawcards, with buyers quickly snapping up the flexible residences.

More than half of the project's 36 dual key apartments have already sold, helping drive COMO beyond the 50 per cent sold mark within the first month of launch.

The strong response highlights growing demand for apartment designs that can adapt to changing lifestyles, with buyers increasingly looking for homes that accommodate multi-generational living, provide rental income opportunities or simply offer greater flexibility over time.

Located on the shores of Lake Orr, COMO will deliver 156 apartments across 16 levels, with the dual-key residences forming a limited release within the broader development.

Each combines a primary two-bedroom apartment with a fully self-contained studio on a single title, connected by a shared foyer and lockable internal door. The design allows owners to house ageing parents, adult children or guests while maintaining privacy, or lease the secondary residence to generate additional income.

Just 17 of the original 36 dual key apartments remain available.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=367096]

The innovative configuration combines two fully self-contained residences on a single title, typically comprising a primary two-bedroom apartment alongside a separate studio residence, connected via a shared foyer and lockable internal door.&nbsp;

The model is proving particularly attractive to owner occupiers navigating changing family dynamics and the realities of the current housing crisis.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=363511]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/npa">NPA</a>&nbsp;CEO Andrew Erwin said dual key living was resonating strongly with modern buyers because it delivered both financial flexibility and practical lifestyle benefits.&nbsp;

“The housing crisis and rising cost of living are fundamentally changing how Australians think about home ownership,” Erwin said.&nbsp;

“Dual key apartments provide a genuine solution for families who want to stay connected while maintaining independence. Parents can help adult children save for a future home, ageing parents can remain nearby without moving into aged care, and owners still retain privacy and flexibility.

“Importantly, buyers are also recognising the financial advantages. It creates the opportunity to generate additional income from part of the home without the holding costs associated with owning a separate investment property.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=363509]

Unlike traditional dual occupancy arrangements, the residences operate under a single title, meaning owners only incur one set of body corporate fees, council rates and holding costs.&nbsp;

The secondary residence can also evolve over time - functioning as guest accommodation, a home office, creative studio or private retreat before later becoming an income-producing asset.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/red-co">Red &amp; Co</a>&nbsp;Director and Co-Founder David Laverty said the strong early sales reflected growing buyer urgency and changing priorities within the market.&nbsp;

“Securing more than half of COMO’s residences within such a short timeframe is an outstanding result and a clear endorsement of both the design and location,” Laverty said.&nbsp;

“Buyers are responding to the combination of location, connectivity and amenity, but ultimately it’s value relative to other East Coast markets that is driving enquiry.”&nbsp;

“We’re also seeing strong interest from owner occupiers looking for homes that can adapt with them over time. Flexibility has become one of the most important considerations for buyers in today’s market.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=363515]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bda-architecture">BDA Architecture</a>, COMO features a mix of one-, two- and three-bedroom residences with 2.7-metre ceilings and larger-format floorplans aimed at owner occupiers, downsizers and lifestyle-focused buyers.&nbsp;

The development will feature an extensive rooftop recreation and wellness offering including a 25-metre lap pool, sundeck, barbecue and dining areas, gym, sauna, plunge baths, landscaped gardens, wellness spaces and rooftop pickleball and paddleball courts.

The remaining dual key apartments range from 137 sqm to 167 sqm and include generous three-bedroom layouts with separate self-contained studio accommodation and dual parking.&nbsp;

Erwin said the dual key concept represented a broader shift in how Australians would live in the future.

“People want homes that can evolve with their lives,” he said.&nbsp;

“A dual key apartment can suit a family today, support an ageing parent tomorrow, and potentially generate income later on. That adaptability is becoming incredibly valuable in the current environment.”

Prices currently range from $2,115,750 to $2,583,000.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135546]

Inter-generational living drives demand for COMO’s dual key apartments as housing pressures reshape buyer priorities 

Builder-developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/ceerose">Ceerose</a> has doubled down on its Leichhardt ambitions, lodging its second State Significant Development Application (SSDA) in the suburb in the last six months.

Their newest proposal seeks to transform a former industrial precinct into a new residential community centred around the adaptive reuse of one of the site's heritage warehouse buildings.

The new project, on a 6,930 sqm block at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/40-76-william-street-leichhardt-nsw-2040">40–76 William Street</a>, will bring more than 200 apartments to a suburb that has seen little to no new supply in recent years. It follows Ceerose's late 2025 SSDA for a mixed-use apartment project on nearby Parramatta Road, signalling the developer's growing investment in Sydney's Inner West.

Ceerose Founder Edward Doueihi told Apartments.com.au the developer’s long-standing presence in Leichhardt and the Inner West had given it a strong understanding of how the area has evolved and where its future opportunities lie.

“Ceerose has had a long-standing presence in Leichhardt and the Inner West, giving us a unique understanding of the area’s evolution and future potential,” Doueihi said.

“Having delivered projects throughout the region, we have witnessed the suburb’s transformation first-hand and understand the opportunities for its continued growth.”

Doueihi said that understanding also informed the planning process, with a comprehensive Stakeholder Engagement Outcomes Report prepared before the application was lodged.

The report identified the key issues and concerns raised by neighbouring residents and other stakeholders, allowing those matters to be considered and incorporated into the design where appropriate.

He said the delivery of additional housing would also play an important role in supporting the revitalisation of Norton Street and the Italian Forum.

“By increasing the local residential population, the development is expected to strengthen demand for local businesses, encourage further investment, and help restore the vibrancy that made the precinct a thriving destination in the early 2000s.”

<img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7258c54c-8167-479e-8361-2d5fca9915b4" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010B%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%202.jpg?VersionId=S9DQfxu_jpcB5LrAEYFUbyMzg5odW6i5" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/woods-bagot">Woods Bagot</a>, the redevelopment would involve the demolition of four existing industrial buildings while retaining and adaptively reusing the site's most significant warehouse. The retained structure would anchor a new residential precinct comprising five interconnected buildings arranged around a large central landscaped courtyard, with heights stepping from five storeys along the surrounding residential streets to 11 storeys at the William Street corner.

According to the Architecture Design Report by Woods Bagot, the proposal "seeks to create a residential village centred around a generous green heart while celebrating the site's industrial heritage through the adaptive reuse of the existing warehouse building."

The development would comprise 203 apartments, with 188 proposed as build-to-sell residences, alongside 15 affordable housing apartments.

Rather than treating the retained warehouse as a standalone heritage object, Woods Bagot has sought to weave the site's industrial history throughout the masterplan. The proposal retains the north and west facades of the landmark corner warehouse, while new buildings reinterpret the site's brick-and-steel industrial language through their material palette and architectural expression.

<img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="9e8c64c2-881b-49e1-8c90-6b6acaaa45b6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010C%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%203.jpg?VersionId=Qm8_8H_Xrg_sc4Mdjc59vlAcKF_5wRTb" />

The design is organised around what Woods Bagot describes as a "green heart", a landscaped communal open space that reinstates the leafy character removed when the site became an industrial storage facility. A new pedestrian laneway running through the site would improve permeability between William, North and Francis streets, linking residents through landscaped public spaces while activating the ground plane.

Residents would have access to communal gardens and shared recreation areas distributed throughout the development. Sustainability has also been prioritised, with the project targeting an average 7.9-star NatHERS rating. Proposed initiatives include rooftop solar generation, rainwater harvesting, passive solar design, naturally ventilated lobbies, extensive cross-ventilation and the reuse of existing building fabric to reduce embodied carbon.

The adaptive reuse strategy became a defining feature of the application after heritage investigations found only one of the site's industrial buildings could feasibly be retained. The Heritage Impact Statement concludes that preserving the key warehouse façades while referencing the site's industrial character throughout the new development provides an appropriate balance between renewal and conservation.

<img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="efffafdb-594f-4e2b-a067-921fd51c05e1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010D%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%204.jpg?VersionId=DPmE4.k16YRt0i27hEZVtJAffarpvUfx" />

"Retention and adaptation of the site buildings has been explored but found not to be feasible except for the tallest building, whose street facades will be retained," the heritage report states.

"The proposed building will interpret the brick and steel character of the subject site, including reuse of some components and construction of a large 'sawtooth' structure in the proposed open space."

<img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3bfef2b5-83f5-40cd-9cab-767092f34266" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010E%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%205.jpg?VersionId=7asb3i_ql4ybbuJOUb5UHBEIy0Q9t.DF" />

The William Street site is located around 300 metres from Leichhardt North Light Rail station and a short walk to Norton Street's retail, dining and hospitality precinct. The surrounding area has increasingly become a focus for urban renewal given its proximity to public transport and the Parramatta Road corridor.

Doueihi founded Ceerose in 1998 and has grown the business to become one of Sydney's more active apartment developers in recent years, with completed projects including The Alex Collective in Alexandria, Abbie's Lane in Annandale, and the award-winning Munro House in Elizabeth Bay. They are currently delivering Belgravia, 17 luxury apartments in Potts Point.

First look: Ceerose doubles down in Leichhardt with adaptive reuse of former warehouse site

Property 2019

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVATION
Over the past five years, Chinese developers have significantly ramped up their presence building landmark residential towers around the world, including along the skyline of the Australian east coast.
In 2018, Chinese developers and investors purchased $1.3 billion worth of Australian residential sites; equivalent to 31% of total sites sold.
This was down substantially from the $2.02 billion recorded a year earlier, although the share of total sales fell only slightly from 33%; reflecting a wider, slower-paced market.
There is no denying Chinese developers have met with challenges throughout this time. From the Chinese government attempting to moderate capital outflow, to locally, the impact when major domestic banks restricted lending to offshore borrowers.
This limited Chinese developers’ ability to rely on deep databases of clients familiar with projects in their home towns.
In addition, current challenges being faced by all developers include the local changes to Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) rules and the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) encouraging stricter lending practices for investors cooling off-the-plan presales—not to mention the introduction of state-based surcharges.
The majority of Chinese developers which have entered the Australian landscape are settling in for the long haul, now diversifying their portfolios to adapt to local market trends.
Over the past year, the likes of Zone Q, China Poly Group, Yuhu Group and Aqualand have increased their exposure to office assets and this trend is likely to continue in 2019.
Also they are shifting weight towards lower-density residential with 41% of sites purchased in 2018, up from 29% in 2017. Overall however with a 58% share, the more accustomed, higherdensity sites still dominated; this past year moving away from medium-density sites.
Chinese developers and investors have purchased more than 25% of the residential development sites that have transacted each year over the past five years.
Factoring inlead times for planning and marketing the project, naturally the number of Australian apartments built by Chinese developers only started to ramp up in 2016, and were located in Sydney, as shown in Figure 1.
In saying this, reflecting on the past five years, Chinese-developed projects have tended to move hastily into construction mode once development approval is granted; in many cases citing a lower reliance on funding (when compared to a local developer).
Almost 11% of all new apartments, or 5,160 apartments, were built by Chinese Collective Sales for Development September 2018 Australian Residential Development Review 2018 developers in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane in 2018.
Still concentrated on the major east coast cities, this share is projected to rise to 15% in 2019 for those 5,440 apartments currently under construction, then increase to 22% in 2021.
This includes those projects which have already commenced, and those with development approval which are currently being marketed (7,360 apartments).
With current headwinds heading into 2019, the likelihood of all projects proposed by Chinese developers going ahead in this timeframe is diminishing, except those with an exceptional product.
Projects submitted for development approval and those already with approval, but not yet having started a marketing campaign, tend to taper-off substantially with less than 6% of total projects in the pipeline each year beyond 2023.
Going forward, developers—both Chinese and local—must hold realistic expectations following a residential market in correction mode after a lengthy period of significant growth. It will be imperative proper time is allocated to strengthen their position in the market for when the time to proceed arrives.
MICHELLE CIESIELSKI is a Director within Research &amp; Consulting at Knight Frank
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Chinese development in Australia in 2019: Knight Frank's Michelle Ciesielski

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
Falling property values dragging household wealth lower backed up by data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed that overall household wealth fell over the final two quarters of 2018.
Total household assets were recorded at a value of $12.6 trillion at the end of 2018, while total household assets fell in value over both the September and December 2018 quarters taking household wealth -1.6% lower relative to June 2018.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/4/4/CL%20PP%20Values%201.JPG" alt="">
While the value of household assets fell by -1.6% over the past two quarters, liabilities have increased by 1.5% over the same period to reach $2.4 trillion.
As a result, net household worth was recorded at $10.2 trillion; the lowest it has been since September 2017.
Based on the data from the ABS, the Reserve Bank (RBA) then calculates a number of household finance ratios.
The first metric detailed from the RBA are the ratios of household and housing debt to disposable income.
As at December 2018, household debt was 189.6% of disposable income, a record high and up from 188.7% the previous quarter.
Housing debt was also a record high 140.2% of disposable income and had risen from 139.5% the previous quarter.
While debt levels are quite high, the ratios of asset value to disposable income are much higher.
While that may be the case, it is important to understand that if asset values fall, the value of the debt typically doesn’t reduce at the same speed, which can lead to asset value erosion.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/4/4/CL%20PP%20Values%202.JPG" alt="">
As at December 2018, household assets were 927.9% of disposable incomes.
This ratio has declined as property values have fallen, down from a peak of 962.1% in December 2017.
Similarly, the ratio of housing assets to disposable income is currently 495.3%, down from its peak of 529.7% in December 2017. The 495.3% figure is the lowest it has been since September 2016.
However because of a reduction in the ratio of assets to disposable income, the ratio of debt to assets is climbing.
Total household debt is now 20.4% of household assets, the highest it has been since March 2016.
Total housing debt is 28.3% of total housing assets, the highest it has been since September 2014.
Again, this reflects the fact that asset values are falling as debt increases.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/4/4/CL%20PP%20Values%203.JPG" alt="">
Despite generational low official interest rates, the measures of interest payments to disposable income have risen over recent quarters and likely reflective of lenders lifting interest rates independently of any adjustment to the cash rate by the RBA.
Household interest payments represented 9.1% of household disposable income in December 2018, their highest share since September 2013.
Housing interest payments accounted for 7.6% of household disposable income in December 2018, their highest share since March 2013.
Despite the cash rate tracking at generational lows, households are paying a proportionally higher share of interest than they have in many years.
With housing values falling and expected to keep falling the ratio of assets to disposable incomes is likely to fall over the coming quarters.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/4/4/CL%20PP%20Values%204.JPG" alt="">
Although most households will likely remain in a position whereby the value of their assets is significantly higher than their debt, no doubt an increasing number of recent property purchasers will have higher levels of debt than the value of their asset.
This is probably an area of most concern for the RBA. If this leads to reduced consumer expenditure an in-turn slower economic growth, it may be a trigger for either lower official interest rates or changes to mortgage lending policies (or both).
Furthermore, with household debt at record highs and households dedicating more of their income to servicing their debt at a time when interest rates are so low, and if household debt levels haven’t declined by the time interest rates rise, it could create more challenges for households.
In closing, the ABS/RBA data releases will be very important to focus on over the coming quarters.
CAMERON KUSHER is a Research Analyst for CoreLogic
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ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Falling property values drags household wealth lower: Cameron Kusher

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
<div id="post-body-36613851729109642" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>In May 2018, I noted that I didn't think we'd end up with a major housing crunch.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Part of my reasoning was that 'lenders gonna lend'.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In other words, just as we've used a knife and fork for more than 800 years, Australia's financial system has been deregulated for decades, and we still have four major banks, all of which need to lend money to make money.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>I felt this would insulate the housing downturn, despite the heavy macroprudential changes.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>What wasn't so clear at that time, at least to me, was the full impact that the Royal Commission would have on the appetite of lenders. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In the event, a full seven rounds of public hearings was played out in front the media throng, and the final report wasn't delivered until last month.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Accordingly there have been some nervous operators over the past year or so, and there was a very noticeable impact on mortgage processing and practices. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Policy moves</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The RC final report being submitted only in February 2019, this is all very much fresh in the memory, so any loosening of the credit taps is likely to be gradual.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>But still, with a smaller mortgage pie to be shared around - lending volumes are down by a fifth from a year earlier - and major banks having lost market share in recent years, I believe there will be some policy moves to win business and get mortgage book growth back into positive territory.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It's only March, bear in mind, the month after the final RC report, but today we saw the first interesting move of any note, from ANZ Bank:</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-RLHPrcZuxFk/XIn45vh_1pI/AAAAAAAAu98/uLIiYyi0OloMf308ZHbLqUL6TF8JDBlrwCLcBGAs/s1600/Wemyss.jpg"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-RLHPrcZuxFk/XIn45vh_1pI/AAAAAAAAu98/uLIiYyi0OloMf308ZHbLqUL6TF8JDBlrwCLcBGAs/s640/Wemyss.jpg" width="640" height="233" data-original-height="274" data-original-width="745"></a></div>
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<div>90 per cent LVR investment mortgages with a 10-year interest-only term should generate a bit of welcome business for ANZ (not to mention profit, since rates and have tended to be higher on IO mortgages). </div>
<div>
 And ANZ has generally been one of the more proactive lenders of late.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Some context is due.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Borrowers taking this option on a 10-year IO mortgage will see sundry borrowing capacity hampered, due to the way in which this mortgage debt is assessed.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And, indeed, most IO loans don't run for 10 years. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>But it's a nice cushion for borrowers seeking IO certainty, and moreover it's the first positive signal of competition returning for investor borrowers. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>. 
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Credit to loosen a little: Pete Wargent

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EXPERT OBSERVER
With the housing market weakening over the past few years, most capital cities have experienced dwelling value falls with a more significant correction experienced in Sydney, Melbourne, Perth and Darwin.
Although the past few decades have been characterised by increasing property values, that doesn’t mean there haven’t been periods when property values have reversed; in fact the housing market is highly cyclical with upswings generally followed by a period of falling values.
At a national level, since 1980 there have been eight separate housing market downturns (as highlighted in the first chart).
The current downturn which commenced after October 2017, has seen values fall by -6.8%. Although that may not seem like a substantial downturn, since the early 80s there have only been two downturns which were larger, 2008-09 and 1982-83.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/3/14/Widespread%201.JPG" alt="">
 
National housing market downturns have also been generally fairly short-lived with the current downturn of 16 months already the second longest with the 2010-12 decline running two months longer than the current downturn.
The decline in values throughout the current downturn has been larger across the combined capital cities, with values now -8.6% lower.
By next month, assuming the falls continue, this will be the largest downturn in the combined capital city index any time since 1980.
The current downturn is also closing in on being the longest.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/3/14/Widespread%202.JPG" alt="">
 
With values having peaked in September 2017, they have now been falling for 17 months with the previous longest period of decline coinciding with the last recession, running for 20 months between 1989 and 1991.
Since peaking in July 2017, Sydney dwelling values have fallen by -13.2% to February 2019.
Not only is this now the deepest period of decline it is also one of the longest. With little sign that the falls will abate over the coming months, this current downturn may end up being the deepest and longest in modern times.
This downturn is also very different to other downturns which have generally been driven by an economic contraction or higher interest rates.
This downturn is more closely linked to a significant tightening of credit conditions at a time in which the economy continues to grow and interest rates are unchanged (despite some moderate increases for owner occupiers and larger rises for investors).
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/3/14/Widespread%203.JPG" alt="">
 
The housing market in Melbourne peaked in November 2017 and up until the end of February 2019 dwelling values across the city have fallen by -9.6%.
Interestingly, comparing the downturn in Melbourne to Sydney, 15 months into Melbourne’s downturn values have fallen -9.6% compared to a decline of -8.2% 15 months into Sydney’s downturn.
The downturn in Melbourne’s housing market is closing in on its largest downturn of -10% between 1989 and 1992 while the downturn (so far) has been much shorter than the 36 month period in 1989-92.
 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/3/14/Widespread%204.JPG" alt="">
While Sydney and Melbourne have recorded substantial increases in dwelling values over recent years and are now seeing large falls, Brisbane never saw anywhere near the magnitude of value growth during the upswing.
Despite more moderate growth in recent years, values in Brisbane are now falling on an annual basis, albeit quite moderately.
Brisbane dwelling values peaked in April 2018 and they have now declined by -1.0% to February 2019. To date the fall is moderate however, with housing market weakness entrenched values are expected to move slightly lower or, at best hold firm, over the coming months.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/3/14/Widespread%205.JPG" alt="">
Much like Brisbane, value growth in Adelaide has been moderate over recent years however, that has not stopped values from starting to decline over recent months.
Values peaked in December of 2018 and have fallen over each of the past two months to be -0.3% lower at the end of February 2019.
While there have been previous periods of value falls in Adelaide, they have tended to be more moderate than those recorded across the other capital cities.
To-date the decline has been short and moderate and it will be interesting to see over the coming months whether values continue to fall.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/3/14/Widespread%206.JPG" alt="">
The Perth housing market has been in an extended downturn over recent years with values having now fallen by -17.8% since their June 2014 peak.
The current downturn has run substantially longer than previous downturns and it is also a much deeper value fall than recorded across previous downturns.
In late 2017/early 2018 it was looking as if the falls were coming to an end however, the market has weakened further in line with weaker labour market and economic conditions as well as tighter credit conditions.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/3/14/Widespread%207.JPG" alt="">
Hobart is the only capital city in which dwelling values are continuing to rise.
Although they are still rising, the annual rate of growth in February 2019 was recorded at 7.2% which was its slowest rate of growth since October 2016.
Housing affordability has been a big driver of growth over recent years however, housing affordability has been eroded and there is a likelihood that the rate of growth will continue to ease over coming months.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/3/14/Widespread%208.JPG" alt="">
Darwin housing data commences from 1999 and over that time there have only been two downturns. The current downturn which commenced from May 2014 has now seen values in Darwin fall by -27.0%.
The downturn is significantly longer and deeper than the previous downturn and the deepest downturn recorded for any capital city over recent decades.
With weak labour market and economic conditions persisting, there is a high likelihood of further declines this year.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/3/14/Widespread%209.JPG" alt="">
Canberra dwelling values fell by -0.2% in February 2019. Although there is no evidence of a negative trend, the rate of annual growth has been consistently slowing and it is clear that some heat has exited the Canberra housing market.
Although values may edge lower, the outlook for Canberra’s housing market is likely to be relatively steady conditions.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/3/14/Widespread%2010.JPG" alt="">
With values now falling across most capital cities the question of course becomes when do the falls stop.
No one really knows the answer to that question, our models show, at least for the short-term, that values are likely to continue trending lower, with the rate of decline easing later this year and into 2020.
The other main question is once markets reach a trough, how quickly will the market recover?
Historically, market recoveries from their trough have generally been fairly rapid however, the recoveries have generally been driven by lower interest rates or a mix of stimulus such as the first home buyers grant boost.
Although there is an expectation that interest rates may move lower, we probably won’t see the entire rates cuts passed through to mortgage rates and the much tighter credit conditions are likely to limit any rebound in the housing market, particularly given borrowers are being assessed on their ability to repay a mortgage at a much higher rate (above 7%).
CAMERON KUSHER is a Senior Analyst for CoreLogic
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House value downturn still spreading: Cameron Kusher

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Conditions in businesses within the property industry remain benign with a focus on strategies for future success, according to findings in the latest Avdiev Property Industry Remuneration Report.
The report found that companies with foreign clients, parent companies or branch offices are most affected and falling residential prices have dampened sentiment with a flow on effect for developers, builders and consultants working in related market sectors.
"After 28 years of continuous economic prosperity a reminder of the cyclic nature of property was well overdue," said Rita Avdiev, Managing Director of the Avdiev Group, remuneration consultants.
"Our subscribers have reported a good volume of business activity to date and for most, only a modest impact on their plans to date." 
The authors note that media focus on falling residential property prices has sent a message to the community about the cyclic nature of property assets, but is overshadowing good news from healthy commercial and industrial market sectors.
With the moderation of activity, property remuneration has also moderated. This time last year, it reported an overall increase in the property markets of 3% compared with the latest finding of 2.5%.
The latest ABS figures as at December 2018 showed the Wage Price Index rose 2.3% through the year and the Consumer Price Index 1.8%.
The report found that "the young continue to outpace their senior colleagues".
"Median pay rises were 2.5% overall, with spikes in sectors where shortages of competent people exist," it said.
Click <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/3/12/Avdiev%20graph.JPG" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/3/12/Avdiev%20graph.JPG" alt="">
According to Avdiev findings, millennials are invading traditional hierarchies.
Following an influx of young professionals, encouraged by a Property Council campaign, there has been generational change in the property industry.
Corporate restructuring in the last few years has encouraged millennials to rise up the ranks.
"Millennials are young, ambitious, with fresh attitudes to speed, change and results,” says Rita Avdiev.
"With the property industry and global and local economies in a state of flux, their ways of dealing with what comes next will be interesting to watch."
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Property industry business conditions remain benign: Avdiev

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
Companies have had to deal with a raft of negative influences.
These include the China-US trade war; Brexit (Brambles, Reliance Worldwide); global financial market volatility (Challenger); political factors and uncertainty (Healthscope, Challenger, CSL); falls in Australian home prices; and on-going soft wage growth and consumer attitudes (Coles, Wesfarmers, Woolworths).
Even some companies highlighted weather influences including wet weather in Sydney (Coles, Suncorp, Steadfast, QBE and Transurban). 
Certainly the tougher business environment has been reflected in surveys. Even the Reserve Bank Governor says that the economic environment is “less positive” than a year ago. Not, a ‘negative’ environment mind you, but “less positive”. 
Companies are still making money. In fact 93 per cent of the companies reporting ‘interim’ results reported a statutory profit (net profit after tax). That is near the record high in the equivalent earnings season in February 2018. But only 49 per cent of companies lifted profits compared with a year ago. 
Aggregate statutory earnings lifted by 15.3 per cent on a year ago, but once Wesfarmers and BHP are excluded, profits are down 5.8 per cent on the year. The percentage of companies that issued a dividend is at 6-year lows; expenses outpaced sales; and cash levels for all ASX 200 companies – half or full-year reporting companies – were up 5 per cent on a year ago. 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/3/1/Craig%20James%201.JPG" alt="">
 Some of the themes of the season:
Share prices of companies were volatile on the day of their earnings announcement. But the spread of companies recording a lift in its share price almost completely matched those recording a share price fall. That is, ‘ups’ matched ‘downs’. 
Costs or expenses continue to lift, as has been the case for the past year. Growth of cost of sales/expenses now exceeds that of sales/revenues. Higher wage and energy costs were specifically noted. A similar theme of ‘margin’ pressures was highlighted in the European reporting season. 
Despite falls in home prices, housing construction and development companies didn’t report a marked impact on earnings results.
In the ASX200 index group, 138 companies with a June 30 reporting date issued half-year results while 31 companies with a December 31 reporting date issued full-year results. 
In aggregate, revenues rose by 4.8 per cent on a year ago to $308 billion; expenses rose by 5.6 per cent to $261 billion; profits lifted by 15.3 per cent to $33.5 billion; dividends lifted by 11.7 per cent and cash rose by 5.0 per cent. 
The 11.7 per cent lift in dividends was heavily influenced by special dividends by Fortescue, Flight Centre and Wesfarmers. Excluding these companies, aggregate dividend payments rose by 2.0 per cent.
Excluding BHP and Wesfarmers, profits fell by 5.5 per cent. While ‘underlying’ results may show a different picture, BHP reported a 61.2 per cent rise in statutory profit with Wesfarmers net profit rising from $212 million to $4,538 million (profit from continuing operations was up 4.2 per cent). 
Profits of BHP, Wesfarmers and CBA accounted for 40 per cent of all interim profits.
On revenues, 79 per cent reported increases and 21 per cent reported declines.
On expenses, 80 per cent reported increases and 20 per cent reported declines. 
On profits, 93 per cent reported a profit. 
Only 49 per cent reported a lift in profit (long-term average 61.5 per cent).
Of those reporting a profit, 52 per cent lifted profits and 48 per cent reported a decline.
Of all HY reporting companies, 83 per cent issued a dividend and 17 per cent didn’t.
Of those reporting a dividend, 58 per cent lifted the dividend, 17 per cent cut and 24 per cent left dividends unchanged. 
Of all companies reporting half-year earnings, 51 per cent lifted cash holdings over the year and 49 per cent cut cash levels. 
Cash holdings of both full-year and half-year reporting companies stood at $120.9 billion as at December 31, (half-year companies, up 5.0 per cent on a year ago to $91.5 billion).
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/3/1/Craig%20James%202.JPG" alt="">
The trends 
Surveys conducted over the past eight months have generally indicated tougher business conditions. 
The NAB business conditions index hit record (21-year) highs in April 2018 but conditions have significantly softened in the period since. This hasn’t been confined to Australia – business surveys across the globe have softened since the second quarter of 2018. 
Companies are still making money. The near 93 per cent of companies that reported a statutory profit for the six months to December was just off the record high (18 profit seasons) recorded in February 2018. 
But the fact that fewer companies were able to lift profits, accords with survey evidence. In fact only around half of all companies managed to lift profits compared with a year ago. Certainly the ‘comp’ was harder – the comparison with a year ago. That was a time when business surveys were recording the best operating conditions for over 20 years. 
The even split between those lifting and cutting profits also lines up with the mixed results of company share price performances on the day of reporting earnings. The first day change in share price is useful for picking up various elements – whether results have met expectations; outlook statements; capital management initiatives; and judgements by investors on whether recent share price performances have been justified in light of the new information. 
Revenues rose in aggregate by 4.8 per cent – in line with nominal growth of the economy (real growth near 3 per cent and inflation of 2 per cent). But the cost of sales and expenses rose even more on a year ago – closer to 5.6 per cent. A number of companies reported increases in the cost of doing business. More people are being employed and wage growth is higher than a year ago. The cost of materials and transport costs also lifted in the second half of 2018, especially fuel prices (Qantas). 
Companies are still keen to pay dividends. But the 83 per cent of companies electing to pay a dividend is below the longer-term average (86 per cent). Some investors had believed that more companies would be paying or lifting dividends ahead of mooted changes in franking policies advocated by the opposition Labor Party. 
Aggregate dividends are up 11.7 per cent over the year, but they were up almost 14 per cent on a year in the 2017/18 financial year.
Some companies (especially in the resources sector) reported ‘special’ dividends, the prevalence was no greater than in the previous reporting season. 
Of companies paying a dividend, the 58 per cent that elected to lift dividends was the smallest proportion in around six years. The trend was actually in favour of companies keeping dividends stable – the 24 per cent of companies was the highest proportion in six years.
The tougher business environment meant it was harder to lift dividends and also to lift cash levels. In aggregate, cash holdings rose by 5.0 per cent but there was a relatively even split of those lifting cash level to those trimming cash levels. What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/3/1/Craig%20James%203.JPG" alt="">
Last profit season we noted that “While corporate profits continue to rise, this disguises the challenges beneath the surface.” And indeed some of the challenges rose above the surface over the past six months. 
The impact of the challenges certainly hasn’t been uniform. It depends on what adjustments or strategies have been employed by companies. For instance in retail, shopping centres and consumer-dependent companies there have been examples of firms winning the battle (CityChic, Lovisa, Tassal and Vicinity Centres).
But other companies highlight challenges such as Woolworths, noting a shift by consumers to lower-priced options. 
Resource companies have benefited from strong demand and higher prices in the past year and many elected to pay higher dividends. But looking ahead there are greater challenges. Oil prices have eased from highs but are starting to lift again. The outlook for coal remains challenging. But iron ore prices have lifted. 
It is expected that companies will be focussed on cutting costs in the next six months. Notably mining companies have highlight the cost cutting focus. And Monadelphous says its biggest challenge is the availability of workers in the resource sector given the tighter job market.
The record level of homes being built continue to support housing-related companies. But forward-looking indicators have softened (Qube cited weaker demand for building materials). Demand for new and existing homes will ease over the coming year, although there will be marked differences across regions. Higher renovation activity will serve to cushion the fall for builders and suppliers. 
The lower Australian dollar has supported miners and other companies reporting results in US dollars. And despite the tough environment there are still companies looking for acquisitions such as Wesfarmers, Ansell and Perpetual. 
If the China-US trade war is defused – and not replaced by a US-Europe trade war – then business sentiment and conditions should lift across the globe, including in Australia. The main domestic issue is whether falling Sydney and Melbourne home prices lead to lower spending and employment and thus a loss of economic momentum.
The Reserve Bank is well placed to cut rates should it become necessary. However it should be noted that labour markets remain strong – especially in Sydney and Melbourne and the actual interest rate paid on home loans continues to fall. 
The Australian sharemarket suffered from global jitters just like other bourses in late 2018. But this year global bourses have rebounded. Between late August and late December, the Australian sharemarket fell around 14 per cent. From the lows the ASX 200 has lifted 13 per cent. US sharemarkets have similarly rebounded from the lows reached just before Christmas. 
Assuming satisfactory agreement between the US and China on trade, we expect the global sharemarket recovery to continue over 2019. We expect the All Ordinaries to be in a range of 6,450-6,750 by the end of 2018, with the range for the ASX 200 between 6,350-6,650 points.
CRAIG JAMES is CommSec's Chief Economist
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Corporate Australia finds it tough this reporting season: CommSec's Craig James

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
We expect Q4 GDP to confirm a softening trend, recording another soft print of 0.4% in the quarter to be 2.6% higher over the year.
This release will also provide an important update on household sector dynamics around dwelling investment and consumption – two factors we see constraining growth over the next year or so and look to have done so in Q4. With growth projected to slow, amidst remaining spare capacity in the economy, we see rates on hold for an extended period.
While this release is unlikely to trigger an immediate shift on rates, it will provide another marker on the growth front which may lead to an eventual reassessment of the future growth path by the RBA, particularly if weaker growth flows through to labour market conditions.
Looking forward, we see the economy supported by public sector spending, a rise in LNG exports and healthy growth in business investment. Offsetting these supports, consumption is likely to only grow modestly and dwelling investment is expected to fall. 
Wednesday’s GDP figures are forecast to show the economy growing at a similar pace to Q3, printing at 0.4% q/q and seeing a year-average result of 2.9% for 2018.
In doing so, the data would confirm the economy slowed significantly in the H2 2018. Retail sales data and NAB’s modelling of household spending on services suggests that consumption growth will lift slightly to 0.5% - an improvement from Q3, but still a weak outcome.
Official data on residential construction suggest dwelling investment is to fall by around 3%, in line with NAB’s expectation of a decline of around 18% over the next two years, a view supported by the ongoing decline in building approvals. For our Q4 forecasts we see some downside risk to consumption and upside risk to public demand roughly offsetting. 
Looking forward, we expect growth over the next two years to be driven by public infrastructure investment, business investment and further growth in net exports, with consumption to only see modest growth and dwelling investment to fall relatively sharply.
For now, we do not forecast a ‘wealth effect’ weighing on spending, despite our forecast for further declines in house prices, but rather see a larger effect from housing through a significant fall in the construction cycle.
The key uncertainty around our forecasts relates to consumption and business investment. While consumption is playing out broadly as we expected based on weaker income growth, there remains some risk from further declines in house prices leading to a ’wealth effect’.
On the business side, the NAB business survey suggests some loss in momentum over the past 6 months and a recent dip in capacity utilisation. This presents a downside risk to our strong outlook for investment.
With wage and price data suggesting inflationary pressure remained weak in Q4, we expect national accounts measures of prices and income growth will also remain modest. Nonetheless, this release will provide an update on household income growth, the savings rate and the pattern of household expenditure. Unit labour costs look to have remained weak - consistent with ongoing weakness in market sector inflation.
Monetary policy implications: While the RBA remains focused on labour market for now, weaker GDP data will provide little comfort that activity will support ongoing strong employment growth.
Also, these data will provide a signal as to the likely speed and magnitude of the dwelling investment downturn as well as the pattern of household consumption – both downside risks to the RBA’s forecasts for growth.
The national accounts will likely confirm that income growth has remained low and also pose further questions around whether the labour market as a lagging indicator is yet to respond to the slowing in growth from mid last year.
We think that the RBA will wait for further evidence of a slowing labour market before shifting to an easing bias as leading indicators of the labour market are still favourable. Though with growth slowing we think the risk is building to the downside as the last effects of strong growth early in 2018 fade.
ALAN OSTER is NAB's Chief Economist 
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Household sector weakness to persist: NAB's Alan Oster

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RBA members have noted their uncertainty about the extent and speed of the downturn in the dwelling investment cycle.
Dwelling investment was likely to have been close to its peak in the second half of 2018, the February minutes of the central bank advised.
"Although there was still a large pipeline of residential work to be done and few signs that projects already under way were being cancelled, it had become more difficult for new apartment projects to obtain finance, and building approvals were the lowest they had been for five years. 
"As a result, dwelling investment was expected to remain at a high level in the near term, but then to decline faster than previously expected."
From a longer-run perspective, the RBA members assessed that, following such large increases in housing prices, the effect of the recent price falls on overall economic activity was expected to be relatively small. 
"However, members observed that if prices were to fall much further, consumption could be weaker than forecast, which would result in lower GDP growth, higher unemployment and lower inflation than forecast. 
"From a financial stability perspective, tighter lending standards, an improving labour market and low interest rates were all likely to support households' capacity to service their debt. 
"Few households were in negative equity positions despite the falls in housing prices, implying that banks' losses would be limited even if household financial stress were to become more widespread."
Members spent some time considering a paper on the implications of recent developments in housing markets for the economic outlook.
After rising by almost 50 percent over the five years to September 2017, national housing prices had fallen by around 8 per cent to be back around mid-2016 levels.
Members noted the significantly different developments in housing prices across the country.
Housing prices had fallen by 12 percent in Sydney and by 9 percent in Melbourne from their peaks in 2017.
There had also been significant falls in housing prices in Perth and Darwin over recent years.
By contrast, housing prices in Hobart and Canberra had increased over 2018, while housing prices in Adelaide, Brisbane and many regional centres had been flat.
Members noted that the cumulative falls in housing prices in Sydney and Melbourne were relatively large by historical standards, and that it was unusual for housing prices to fall significantly in an environment of low mortgage interest rates and a declining unemployment rate.
Members noted that some of the dynamics in housing prices could be explained by the fact that the supply of housing does not respond quickly to changes in demand.
In particular, the run-up in housing prices had occurred during a period when housing supply had not picked up sufficiently to match higher demand from more rapid population growth.
Over time, higher housing prices had eventually led to a sizeable increase in supply, but this had taken longer than in previous cycles.
Another factor weighing on prices was a noticeable decline in demand from foreign buyers in recent years, which had also been apparent in housing markets in some other economies.
The RBA minutes noted rental vacancy rates are one key indicator of the balance of supply and demand in the housing market.
In most states, rental vacancies had been around or somewhat below average at the end of 2018, suggesting supply and demand for housing had been roughly balanced.
In Melbourne, despite the fall in prices and large increase in supply, the vacancy rate had declined.
By contrast, rental vacancies in Sydney had been increasing and advertised rents had fallen.
Members also noted that housing credit growth had declined further in preceding months and that there had been a notable drop in loan approvals by the major banks.
Growth in lending to investors had slowed sharply since mid 2017 to be close to zero, while growth in lending to owner-occupiers had moderated to around 5½ per cent in six-month-ended annualised terms.
The slower growth in lending for housing over the preceding year appeared to reflect weaker demand, the minutes advised.
"Nevertheless, credit conditions for some borrowers had remained tighter than they had been for some time following the strengthening of lending policies and practices over recent years.
"Liaison with mortgage brokers suggested that the increased public scrutiny associated with the Royal Commission into Misconduct in the Banking, Superannuation and Financial Services Industry may have led some individual loan assessors at banks to apply stricter criteria than specified in official lending requirements.
"However, banks reported that while loan assessors had been referring more approvals to credit officers, final loan approval rates had remained high.
"Moreover, lenders had continued to compete for borrowers of high credit quality by offering new loans at lower interest rates than those offered on existing loans."
To read the full minutes, <a href="/expert-insights/finance/minutes-of-february-2019-monetary-policy-meeting-of-the-reserve-bank-board">click here.</a>
 
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RBA has uncertainty about the extent and speed of the downturn in dwelling investment cycle: February 2019 minutes

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Many discretionary vendors don't think it is quite the right time to test the market in the emerging few months of 2019.
But the early bird 2019 vendors have actually done okay, with less competition on the Saturday auction scene.
We have had two weekends with the preliminary Sydney clearance rate sitting nice in the 50s.
The boss of Ray White Brian White wasn't surprised has he'd sensed buyers are looking for opportunities in the markets that have been hardest hit by the recent adjustment. 
Agents had been noticing since early January that the numbers of attendees at their open for inspections were well up on the same time last year, which gave them some confidence.
Ofcourse inspection numbers are just one indicator, getting hands up at auction quite another feat.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/subscribe" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/2/Subscriber%20strip%20ad.jpg" alt=""></a>
All the negative headlines - sometimes validated by chats among friends and family around the backyard summer bbqs - do have the capacity to undermine our collective psyche.
The early 2019 auction volumes are low, and therefore harder to read in market direction, but there is a possibility some would-be buyers have said enough, and are happy to buy.
February auction clearance rates are always much stronger than where the prior year left off. 
Last December auctions saw a fatigued 40 per cent clearance rate, according to CoreLogic.
The auction success rate had declined through the year having opened 2018 with a 64 percent February clearance rate.
Through the years there have been big new year rebounds. 
There was a huge turnaround coming out of the global financial crisis over summer with the December 2008 success rate being 42 percent but 63 percent in February 2009.
Confident starts after the summer break are or course no guarantee that the entire year remains strong.
Especially as while the new listings around Sydney in the past 28 days are down by around 22 percent on last year, there are very high levels of unsold auction and private treaty stock left over from last year that might be a weight on the 2019 market.
CoreLogic calculate unsold Sydney stock left over from last year sitting now at 27,000 or so, which is up 15 percent on last February's 23,000 offerings, meaning much more choice for buyers than this time last year. 
It was at 19,000 listings in February two years ago.
We don't know the bone fides of all these vendors, and some are just there as window displays for estate agents keen to use dormant listings as a means to attract bites.
Vendors do need to be aware that the market is far tougher, even for the most experienced of agents.
The average private treaty is seeing an 8.7 percent discount on asking price before any house sale, and 8.8 percent for apartments.
This time last year it was required 5.7 percent discount on asking price before any house sale, and 5 percent for apartments.
Attuned pricing is more important than ever if vendors want to get a quick decent sale.
Getting wise counsel on the asking price or likely reserve price for an auction is crucial when thinking of just which agent and which sale process best suits your home.
Don't necessarily automatically pick the agent who suggests they'll get the highest price.
Ofcourse go with a confident realistic agent, but ensure your agent selection process includes getting prospective agents to advise on their recent sales and listings.
And ask just where the prices began with these marketing campaigns.
This article was first published in the Saturday Telegraph.
 
 
 
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Crucial to select a confident realistic agent in tougher 2019 property market

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A Melbourne buyers agent Mal James says part of the reason Melbourne's clearance rates are so poor was "the inexperienced/lazy agents’ mindset and sellers’ selection of those agents."
"The right agent in this market is the key to the right price quote, which is the key to maximising a vendor’s price and indeed whether they sell or not," he said.
James suggested price quote lowerings were often a "death sign" for getting a decent price on a publicly listed home last year.
"Price drops make some buyers very nervous, as they perceive the market is saying maybe it’s a bad home and shouldn’t be considered," he blogged
"In these more nervous times, this is not a feeling a professional agent should be inflicting on buyers, as their selling clients want all of them.
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He suggested as Melbourne had been in a falling market for 18 months that current values should not be a surprise to some agents.
"Why pay a selling agent the big bucks if he/she can’t give you the seller, accurate and forthright advice," he said.
He suggested some agents appear to have been frozen into a quoting regime that was not best for their selling client.
But he stressed he was not suggesting agents “underquote.”
"Underquoting is where the agent “knows” the home is worth more than or “knows” the sellers definitely wouldn’t accept the number he/she puts in the Statement of Information  – it’s illegal and immoral and in our opinion, those agents should be prosecuted as it’s deceptive conduct
"However, where an agent “knows” a home is worth considerably less and allows a high quote to become public and then lowers it a few weeks later, because he or she was not prepared to give the hard truths (professionally) to his or her selling client early, is for us, borderline unethical and definitely unprofessional."
James concluded that all agents are allowed a mistake or two as valuing is not a perfect science.
"It's when you see consistent price quote dropping or pass-ins from the same agents, that you cry unprofessional."
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