<p>Developers and apartment buyers have a narrowing window of opportunity before Brisbane's Olympic infrastructure pipeline begins competing directly with residential construction, pushing up costs, tightening labour supply and making new projects increasingly difficult to deliver.</p>

<p>While Brisbane's apartment market continues to benefit from strong population growth and limited housing supply, industry research suggests the years leading up to 2027 could prove to be the most important period for developers looking to secure builders and buyers hoping to purchase before the next wave of price increases.</p>

<p>A new Colliers report, <em>Brisbane 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games: Creating Solutions</em>, highlights the scale of the challenge. While thousands of new homes are planned across South East Queensland, the Brisbane Olympic Athletes Village alone will deliver more than 10,500 beds during the Games before being converted into around 1,750 to 2,000 apartments. Equivalent to almost two years of typical inner-city apartment supply, the project will also absorb a significant share of the construction workforce and building materials.</p>

<p>The broader construction pipeline paints an even clearer picture.</p>

<p>Construction Skills Queensland's <em>Horizon 2032</em> report forecasts Queensland's annual construction pipeline will average $69 billion over the coming years before peaking at $75 billion in 2027-28. Demand for construction workers is expected to increase by 17 per cent to almost 150,000 people, with the industry facing an annual shortfall of around 19,000 workers that could blow out to as many as 35,000 during the peak construction period.</p>

<p>The Olympic venues, athletes village and supporting infrastructure will account for billions of dollars worth of work across South East Queensland through to 2032, creating intense competition for labour at a time when Australia's residential construction sector is already under pressure.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150489 project_image_fid=373834]</p>

<p>Colliers Queensland Residential Director Andrew Scriven said the convergence of these projects is creating a clear window of opportunity for both developers and buyers.</p>

<p>"From 2027 onwards, the market will shift dramatically," Scriven said.</p>

<p>"Labour will increasingly be locked into government-led infrastructure and Olympic projects, which means private residential developments will face higher costs and tighter margins. The developers who move now are the ones most likely to get projects off the ground."</p>

<p>Scriven said the same dynamic would also affect buyers, with fewer apartment projects expected to launch once construction capacity tightens.</p>

<p>"If you're looking to change your lifestyle over the next five years, now is your window of opportunity to buy."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150713 project_image_fid=373827]</p>

<p>Developers are already positioning themselves ahead of that window.</p>

<p>Following the success of Monarch at Toowong, Consolidated Properties is preparing to launch two new Brisbane apartment projects in the second half of 2026. They include <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/gloriette-30-bedivere-street-yeerongpilly-qld-4105">Gloriette</a> at Yeerongpilly Green, a 25-storey tower within one of Brisbane's key Olympic precincts, and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/castile-47-skyring-terrace-newstead-qld-4006">Castile</a>, a recently approved 25-storey riverfront development at 47 Skyring Terrace in Newstead.</p>

<p>Hutchinson Builders will deliver both projects, with early works already underway at Yeerongpilly and Newstead expected to commence later this year.</p>

<p>The timing comes as Brisbane's fundamentals continue to strengthen, with strong interstate migration, population growth and vacancy rates remaining below 1.5 per cent.</p>

<p>Colliers Queensland researcher Pragya Sharma said Greater Brisbane is forecast to require around 40,000 new apartments between 2021 and 2031.</p>

<p>"There's a real mismatch emerging between when housing is needed and when it will be feasible to build," Sharma said.</p>

<p>"As a result, the period leading up to 2027 presents a key window of opportunity for developers to secure approvals, funding and construction capacity, while buyers will have greater choice before supply constraints intensify."</p>


Colliers research outlines a critical pre-2027 window to start residential projects before labour squeeze: now is the time to buy

Joel Robinson

Developers, buyers on watch in South East Queensland ahead of construction crunch: Colliers

<p>It's taken less than nine months for developer Sherpa Property Group to sell out all 51 apartments in its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-oasis-palm-beach-7-9-sixth-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Oasis</a> development in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/palm-beach-qld-4221">Palm Beach</a>, over a year before its anticipated completion.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>Located at 7-9 Sixth Avenue, the $67 million development has resonated strongly with both local owner-occupiers and downsizers seeking high-quality apartments within walking distance of the beach, dining precincts and everyday amenities.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357458]</p>

<p>Christie Leet, Founder of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sherpa-property-group">Sherpa Group</a>, said the sell-out reflected both the strength of the Palm Beach market and the success of Sherpa's community-first approach to development.</p>

<p>"The sell-out of Oasis is a fantastic outcome and reinforces the strong demand we're seeing for thoughtfully designed apartments in lifestyle locations," Leet said.</p>

<p>"From the outset, our vision was to create a development that genuinely enhanced the Palm Beach community while providing residents with exceptional homes and wellness-focused amenities.</p>

<p>"We've been incredibly encouraged by the level of local support throughout the campaign, 72.5 per cent of buyers are locals, with a significant proportion of purchasers choosing Oasis as their future home rather than an investment."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357463]</p>

<p>Construction is now progressing following development approval, with trusted builder LPS Group delivering the project and completion anticipated in Q3 2027.</p>

<p>Oasis forms part of Sherpa Group's successful Flourish collection, which has become recognised for its focus on wellness, community and elevated coastal living.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357469]</p>

<p>Residents will have private access to a rooftop amenity space featuring a pool, gym, sauna, steam room, hot and cold plunge pools, spa and barbecue facilities.</p>

<p>"The success of Oasis demonstrates that buyers continue to prioritise quality, location and lifestyle," Leet said.</p>

<p>"We are proud to have delivered a project that has resonated so strongly with the market and look forward to bringing Oasis to life for our future residents."</p>

<p>Sherpa recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-palm-beach-1150-1160-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a>, its third instalment of the Flourish brand in Palm Beach following Flourish Oasis and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/amargo-6-12-sixth-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Amargo</a>.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=151449]</p>


Sherpa sells out Flourish Oasis in booming Palm Beach

<p>Urban Property Group's <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/la-vera-macquarie-park-94-talavera-road-macquarie-park-nsw-2113">La Vera</a> is leading the next phase of Macquarie Park's residential evolution, with the new apartment development set to become the first of several new apartment projects in the precinct to complete.</p>

<p>The 169-apartment building has now topped out ahead of its scheduled completion in the third quarter of 2026, as new residential investment continues to reshape one of Sydney's largest employment hubs into a true mixed-use precinct.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=368645]</p>

<p>Cox Architecture has designed La Vera to capture the best of its unique positioning on Talavera Road, orienting the building towards Lane Cove National Park.&nbsp;The building features a sculpted northern façade with flowing curves inspired by the surrounding landscape, while its city-facing elevation adopts a more structured architectural expression to maximise skyline views.</p>

<p>"The vision for the project was to conceive a building that adopted an organic and curvilinear form to the northern portion that faces the Lane Cove National Park," <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">Cox Architecture</a> Director Felipe Miranda said.</p>

<p>"The residents that reside in the northern portion of the building benefit by having beautifully crafted curved balconies that speak to the natural context and heighten the relationship of their internal living spaces to the external balconies."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=358802]</p>

<p>La Vera offers a diverse mix of one, two, three, and four-bedroom configurations, with prices currently starting from $740,000. Buyers so far have been a mix of Sydney-based investors,&nbsp;metro commuters, owner-occupiers and downsizers from surrounding North Shore suburbs.</p>

<p>Both investors and owner-occupiers have been drawn to La Vera's proximity to Macquarie University, Macquarie University Hospital, Macquarie Centre and the Sydney Metro, infrastructure that supports both strong rental demand and a convenient lifestyle for residents.</p>

<p>The apartments feature full-height glazing, timber flooring throughout living areas, stone kitchen benchtops, SMEG appliances, floor-to-ceiling bathroom tiling and ducted air conditioning.</p>

<p>Residents will have access to a rooftop recreation level featuring a swimming pool, sauna, barbecue facilities and landscaped relaxation areas, complemented by additional communal space at ground level. Many apartments enjoy uninterrupted views across Lane Cove National Park, reinforcing the project's connection to its natural setting.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=364551]</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a>, a family-owned developer and builder with nearly four decades of experience, holds a 4.5-star iCIRT rating and was Australia's first developer to introduce 10-Year Latent Defects Insurance (LDI). La Vera is the first apartment development in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/macquarie-park-nsw-2113">Macquarie Park</a> approved to offer the additional insurance protection, alongside a five-year warranty on SMEG appliances.</p>

<p>Urban Property Group CEO Patrick Elias said the additional protection reflects changing buyer expectations in the off the plan market.</p>

<p>"Consumers are a lot more weary and a lot more concerned in buying off the plan than they ever have been. Having LDI is a tool to portray the confidence that we have in our product, and a confidence we want buyers to share," Elias said.</p>

<p>Following completion of the building later this year, buyers will move into their apartments well before Christmas.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134951]</p>


La Vera closes in on completion as Macquarie Park continues residential transformation

<p>Brisbane developer Red &amp; Co's decision to include dual key apartments in its debut Gold Coast apartment development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/como-varsity-lakes-22-lake-street-varsity-lakes-qld-4227">COMO Varsity Lakes</a>, is proving to be one of the project's biggest drawcards, with buyers quickly snapping up the flexible residences.</p>

<p>More than half of the project's 36 dual key apartments have already sold, helping drive COMO beyond the 50 per cent sold mark within the first month of launch.</p>

<p>The strong response highlights growing demand for apartment designs that can adapt to changing lifestyles, with buyers increasingly looking for homes that accommodate multi-generational living, provide rental income opportunities or simply offer greater flexibility over time.</p>

<p>Located on the shores of Lake Orr, COMO will deliver 156 apartments across 16 levels, with the dual-key residences forming a limited release within the broader development.</p>

<p>Each combines a primary two-bedroom apartment with a fully self-contained studio on a single title, connected by a shared foyer and lockable internal door. The design allows owners to house ageing parents, adult children or guests while maintaining privacy, or lease the secondary residence to generate additional income.</p>

<p>Just 17 of the original 36 dual key apartments remain available.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=367096]</p>

<p>The innovative configuration combines two fully self-contained residences on a single title, typically comprising a primary two-bedroom apartment alongside a separate studio residence, connected via a shared foyer and lockable internal door.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The model is proving particularly attractive to owner occupiers navigating changing family dynamics and the realities of the current housing crisis.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=363511]</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/npa">NPA</a>&nbsp;CEO Andrew Erwin said dual key living was resonating strongly with modern buyers because it delivered both financial flexibility and practical lifestyle benefits.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“The housing crisis and rising cost of living are fundamentally changing how Australians think about home ownership,” Erwin said.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“Dual key apartments provide a genuine solution for families who want to stay connected while maintaining independence. Parents can help adult children save for a future home, ageing parents can remain nearby without moving into aged care, and owners still retain privacy and flexibility.</p>

<p>“Importantly, buyers are also recognising the financial advantages. It creates the opportunity to generate additional income from part of the home without the holding costs associated with owning a separate investment property.”&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=363509]</p>

<p>Unlike traditional dual occupancy arrangements, the residences operate under a single title, meaning owners only incur one set of body corporate fees, council rates and holding costs.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The secondary residence can also evolve over time - functioning as guest accommodation, a home office, creative studio or private retreat before later becoming an income-producing asset.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/red-co">Red &amp; Co</a>&nbsp;Director and Co-Founder David Laverty said the strong early sales reflected growing buyer urgency and changing priorities within the market.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“Securing more than half of COMO’s residences within such a short timeframe is an outstanding result and a clear endorsement of both the design and location,” Laverty said.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“Buyers are responding to the combination of location, connectivity and amenity, but ultimately it’s value relative to other East Coast markets that is driving enquiry.”&nbsp;</p>

<p>“We’re also seeing strong interest from owner occupiers looking for homes that can adapt with them over time. Flexibility has become one of the most important considerations for buyers in today’s market.”&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=363515]</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bda-architecture">BDA Architecture</a>, COMO features a mix of one-, two- and three-bedroom residences with 2.7-metre ceilings and larger-format floorplans aimed at owner occupiers, downsizers and lifestyle-focused buyers.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The development will feature an extensive rooftop recreation and wellness offering including a 25-metre lap pool, sundeck, barbecue and dining areas, gym, sauna, plunge baths, landscaped gardens, wellness spaces and rooftop pickleball and paddleball courts.</p>

<p>The remaining dual key apartments range from 137 sqm to 167 sqm and include generous three-bedroom layouts with separate self-contained studio accommodation and dual parking.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Erwin said the dual key concept represented a broader shift in how Australians would live in the future.</p>

<p>“People want homes that can evolve with their lives,” he said.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“A dual key apartment can suit a family today, support an ageing parent tomorrow, and potentially generate income later on. That adaptability is becoming incredibly valuable in the current environment.”</p>

<p>Prices currently range from $2,115,750 to $2,583,000.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135546]</p>


Inter-generational living drives demand for COMO’s dual key apartments as housing pressures reshape buyer priorities 

<p>Builder-developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/ceerose">Ceerose</a> has doubled down on its Leichhardt ambitions, lodging its second State Significant Development Application (SSDA) in the suburb in the last six months.</p>

<p>Their newest proposal seeks to transform a former industrial precinct into a new residential community centred around the adaptive reuse of one of the site's heritage warehouse buildings.</p>

<p>The new project, on a 6,930 sqm block at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/40-76-william-street-leichhardt-nsw-2040">40–76 William Street</a>, will bring more than 200 apartments to a suburb that has seen little to no new supply in recent years. It follows Ceerose's late 2025 SSDA for a mixed-use apartment project on nearby Parramatta Road, signalling the developer's growing investment in Sydney's Inner West.</p>

<p>Ceerose Founder Edward Doueihi told Apartments.com.au the developer’s long-standing presence in Leichhardt and the Inner West had given it a strong understanding of how the area has evolved and where its future opportunities lie.</p>

<p>“Ceerose has had a long-standing presence in Leichhardt and the Inner West, giving us a unique understanding of the area’s evolution and future potential,” Doueihi said.</p>

<p>“Having delivered projects throughout the region, we have witnessed the suburb’s transformation first-hand and understand the opportunities for its continued growth.”</p>

<p>Doueihi said that understanding also informed the planning process, with a comprehensive Stakeholder Engagement Outcomes Report prepared before the application was lodged.</p>

<p>The report identified the key issues and concerns raised by neighbouring residents and other stakeholders, allowing those matters to be considered and incorporated into the design where appropriate.</p>

<p>He said the delivery of additional housing would also play an important role in supporting the revitalisation of Norton Street and the Italian Forum.</p>

<p>“By increasing the local residential population, the development is expected to strengthen demand for local businesses, encourage further investment, and help restore the vibrancy that made the precinct a thriving destination in the early 2000s.”</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7258c54c-8167-479e-8361-2d5fca9915b4" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010B%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%202.jpg?VersionId=S9DQfxu_jpcB5LrAEYFUbyMzg5odW6i5" /></p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/woods-bagot">Woods Bagot</a>, the redevelopment would involve the demolition of four existing industrial buildings while retaining and adaptively reusing the site's most significant warehouse. The retained structure would anchor a new residential precinct comprising five interconnected buildings arranged around a large central landscaped courtyard, with heights stepping from five storeys along the surrounding residential streets to 11 storeys at the William Street corner.</p>

<p>According to the Architecture Design Report by Woods Bagot, the proposal "seeks to create a residential village centred around a generous green heart while celebrating the site's industrial heritage through the adaptive reuse of the existing warehouse building."</p>

<p>The development would comprise 203 apartments, with 188 proposed as build-to-sell residences, alongside 15 affordable housing apartments.</p>

<p>Rather than treating the retained warehouse as a standalone heritage object, Woods Bagot has sought to weave the site's industrial history throughout the masterplan. The proposal retains the north and west facades of the landmark corner warehouse, while new buildings reinterpret the site's brick-and-steel industrial language through their material palette and architectural expression.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="9e8c64c2-881b-49e1-8c90-6b6acaaa45b6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010C%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%203.jpg?VersionId=Qm8_8H_Xrg_sc4Mdjc59vlAcKF_5wRTb" /></p>

<p>The design is organised around what Woods Bagot describes as a "green heart", a landscaped communal open space that reinstates the leafy character removed when the site became an industrial storage facility. A new pedestrian laneway running through the site would improve permeability between William, North and Francis streets, linking residents through landscaped public spaces while activating the ground plane.</p>

<p>Residents would have access to communal gardens and shared recreation areas distributed throughout the development. Sustainability has also been prioritised, with the project targeting an average 7.9-star NatHERS rating. Proposed initiatives include rooftop solar generation, rainwater harvesting, passive solar design, naturally ventilated lobbies, extensive cross-ventilation and the reuse of existing building fabric to reduce embodied carbon.</p>

<p>The adaptive reuse strategy became a defining feature of the application after heritage investigations found only one of the site's industrial buildings could feasibly be retained. The Heritage Impact Statement concludes that preserving the key warehouse façades while referencing the site's industrial character throughout the new development provides an appropriate balance between renewal and conservation.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="efffafdb-594f-4e2b-a067-921fd51c05e1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010D%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%204.jpg?VersionId=DPmE4.k16YRt0i27hEZVtJAffarpvUfx" /></p>

<p>"Retention and adaptation of the site buildings has been explored but found not to be feasible except for the tallest building, whose street facades will be retained," the heritage report states.</p>

<p>"The proposed building will interpret the brick and steel character of the subject site, including reuse of some components and construction of a large 'sawtooth' structure in the proposed open space."</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3bfef2b5-83f5-40cd-9cab-767092f34266" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010E%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%205.jpg?VersionId=7asb3i_ql4ybbuJOUb5UHBEIy0Q9t.DF" /></p>

<p>The William Street site is located around 300 metres from Leichhardt North Light Rail station and a short walk to Norton Street's retail, dining and hospitality precinct. The surrounding area has increasingly become a focus for urban renewal given its proximity to public transport and the Parramatta Road corridor.</p>

<p>Doueihi founded Ceerose in 1998 and has grown the business to become one of Sydney's more active apartment developers in recent years, with completed projects including The Alex Collective in Alexandria, Abbie's Lane in Annandale, and the award-winning Munro House in Elizabeth Bay. They are currently delivering Belgravia, 17 luxury apartments in Potts Point.</p>


First look: Ceerose doubles down in Leichhardt with adaptive reuse of former warehouse site

Property 2019

<html><body>
<p>It's well known that most <a href="http://petewargent.com/2019/01/10/being-approximately-right-not-precisely-wrong/" target="_blank">market predictions</a> are a <a href="http://petewargent.com/2018/01/04/forecasting-fails/" target="_blank">waste of time</a>: they usually just project <a href="http://petewargent.com/2019/01/02/the-small-numbers-fallacy/" target="_blank">more of what's been happening</a>, and are rarely much chop at picking turning points. </p>
<div>With almost no housing market activity over the long Easter break, this does feel like a potential <a href="http://petewargent.com/2018/01/07/tipping-point/" target="_blank">inflection point</a> - for better or worse - and certainly it's as a good a time as any for a largely baseless opinion piece. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>It's clear that the speculative heat has been well and truly removed from the housing market by the credit squeeze and a range of other factors. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In fact, the reverse is now the case, with investor credit growth running at the lowest level in Australia's history.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Zj-1Sx_I9FE/XLrwf1FtTII/AAAAAAAAvoE/FiK8ITEj7oEO15XnZ3VSYZbmN0cb6Rd1wCLcBGAs/s1600/RBA.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Zj-1Sx_I9FE/XLrwf1FtTII/AAAAAAAAvoE/FiK8ITEj7oEO15XnZ3VSYZbmN0cb6Rd1wCLcBGAs/s640/RBA.jpg" width="640" height="372" data-original-height="808" data-original-width="1388"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The stock of interest-only loans has been spectacularly reduced by regulatory tweaks and is also at the lowest share on record: probably down to about 21 per cent of residential loans by value by the end of this quarter, representing an epic decline from 39 per cent in early 2017.</div>
<div> </div>
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<p><span>The share of high LVR lending is also tracking at around the lowest level on recent record.</span></p>
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<p><br><span>Low-doc lending, meanwhile, has been all but eliminated over the past decade. </span></p>
<div>Average paper net rental losses (aka. 'negative gearing') claimed are at the lowest level in almost a decade-and-a-half, with further declines in the post on rising yields, lower mortgage rates, and changes to allowable deductions for plant and equipment depreciation and travel. </div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>With loans being tested for serviceability at 7¼ per cent lending metrics have, if anything, become too conservative, and borrowing capacity has in many cases been reduced by 20 to 40 per cent (or simply eliminated entirely for many portfolio investors).  </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>Almost every way you look at it, credit has rarely been so tough to come by. </span></div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Prices cooled since early 2017</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>If the housing market downturn was to end here then I reckon most sober commentators and respected international observers would applaud a job well executed. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In any event, a lot of the 'bubble' talk is way overdone.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There's a lot of debt on a gross basis; but mortgage serviceability isn't particularly stretched, while there's also been an unprecedented build-up in cash and cash equivalents, mortgage buffers, and balances in offset accounts.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In Adelaide it's not all that hard to buy a house for the same price as a decade ago, which given where mortgage rates have gone must represent about a 50 per cent improvement in affordability (without backing this statement up with any hard numbers). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In Brisbane apartment prices are often seen to be lower than they were almost a dozen years ago, so affordability is now stupendously high compared to where it was. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Housing prices had already declined for years in Perth; and they've been roundly smashed in Darwin.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The major house price gains since 2012 were seen in Sydney, where median prices have since declined over a period of more than two years by about 13 per cent, representing a real decline versus incomes nudging about 20 per cent from the peak (much more in parts of Western Sydney, according to a piece in the AFR this week). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>It seems that most of the regulatory actions taken to cool the housing market have all but washed through, but despite the lower fixed mortgage rates on offer lately market activity is still awfully gummed up.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And there's still a non-trivial possibility that the actions taken to promote financial stability, in the end, sink it. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The economy has been stymied for some time now, with two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in per capita terms possibly set to be repeated for a third quarter. Consumption and retail are weak. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>It's difficult to get an accurate real-time reading of housing market turnover but many experienced commentators seem to believe it's at the lowest level on record. </div>
<div>
<br>So, what gives?</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Responsible lending: level up</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>A major part of the challenge for activity in the housing market is some of the breathtaking pedantry related to mortgage applications, which I've experienced a bit of, but often only mortgage brokers have a really good feel for. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-JG7UzCC5iT4/XLruWrgS01I/AAAAAAAAvnk/ef8TSFTV3Wc2-_5hoNtClGB4brfhpKnnwCLcBGAs/s640/APRA3.jpg" width="640" height="310" data-original-height="349" data-original-width="719"></div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-PTwCs7Ka104/XLr1vo2gdjI/AAAAAAAAvoM/d5N4y64uIc4NisobrNKGdRHTbl8wxrv0ACLcBGAs/s640/Perth.jpg" width="640" height="226" data-original-height="268" data-original-width="755"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>There's always a chance that responsible lending morphs into a nanny state mentality, and this is now almost literally becoming so in some cases.</div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-kaKMGR8IQOE/XLruXr4RJ-I/AAAAAAAAvno/FKcZTVfD1z43-VKp6V9u4ibDkXDuOrKlwCLcBGAs/s640/APRA4.jpg" width="640" height="142" data-original-height="162" data-original-width="721"></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>When lenders are stress-testing for scenarios incorporating up to the equivalent of a dozen or more rate hikes it defies belief that a homebuyer registering for Netflix or using Uber might be grounds for the refusal of a loan, but the banking Royal Commission brought this level of paranoia to the fore. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-l9qWpR2REqU/XLruX6zkBoI/AAAAAAAAvns/1Sg96dEAxc8rUDuRYnDAe_yKthlm8oGDACLcBGAs/s640/APRA5.jpg" width="640" height="354" data-original-height="352" data-original-width="635"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>These sometimes amusing and apparently trivial examples are merely the tip of the iceberg in what has been at times a truly Titanic pile of administrative poppycock.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Everyone involved in mortgage lending knows that consumer behaviour and discretionary spend changes post-purchase, so all this rigmarole is largely fruitless and may now be effectively adding to FS risks rather than reducing them. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Tipping point</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Lower interest rates alone don't fix this; but in truth I don't know what does. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Maybe it's the simply passage of time.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Perhaps lenders need some assurance that they aren't going to be hauled over the coals even more than has already been the case. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>By the same token prospective homebuyers would doubtless like to see more certainty given the recent shifting of goalposts (with further changes to market dynamics now proposed by the Labor Party). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Whatever's the case, something needs to get mortgages flowing dependably again, or else there's a risk that the measures to shore up risks in the housing market will no longer be hailed as a success, but instead blamed for capsizing it.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em><span> </span>
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Speculative heat removed from the housing market by the credit squeeze: Pete Wargent

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<p class="post-title entry-title">EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<div id="post-body-36613851729109642" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>In May 2018, I noted that I didn't think we'd end up with a major housing crunch.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Part of my reasoning was that 'lenders gonna lend'.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In other words, just as we've used a knife and fork for more than 800 years, Australia's financial system has been deregulated for decades, and we still have four major banks, all of which need to lend money to make money.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>I felt this would insulate the housing downturn, despite the heavy macroprudential changes.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>What wasn't so clear at that time, at least to me, was the full impact that the Royal Commission would have on the appetite of lenders. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In the event, a full seven rounds of public hearings was played out in front the media throng, and the final report wasn't delivered until last month.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Accordingly there have been some nervous operators over the past year or so, and there was a very noticeable impact on mortgage processing and practices. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Policy moves</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The RC final report being submitted only in February 2019, this is all very much fresh in the memory, so any loosening of the credit taps is likely to be gradual.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>But still, with a smaller mortgage pie to be shared around - lending volumes are down by a fifth from a year earlier - and major banks having lost market share in recent years, I believe there will be some policy moves to win business and get mortgage book growth back into positive territory.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It's only March, bear in mind, the month after the final RC report, but today we saw the first interesting move of any note, from ANZ Bank:</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-RLHPrcZuxFk/XIn45vh_1pI/AAAAAAAAu98/uLIiYyi0OloMf308ZHbLqUL6TF8JDBlrwCLcBGAs/s1600/Wemyss.jpg"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-RLHPrcZuxFk/XIn45vh_1pI/AAAAAAAAu98/uLIiYyi0OloMf308ZHbLqUL6TF8JDBlrwCLcBGAs/s640/Wemyss.jpg" width="640" height="233" data-original-height="274" data-original-width="745"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>90 per cent LVR investment mortgages with a 10-year interest-only term should generate a bit of welcome business for ANZ (not to mention profit, since rates and have tended to be higher on IO mortgages). </div>
<div>
<br>And ANZ has generally been one of the more proactive lenders of late.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Some context is due.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Borrowers taking this option on a 10-year IO mortgage will see sundry borrowing capacity hampered, due to the way in which this mortgage debt is assessed.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And, indeed, most IO loans don't run for 10 years. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>But it's a nice cushion for borrowers seeking IO certainty, and moreover it's the first positive signal of competition returning for investor borrowers. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em><span> </span>
</div>
</div>
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Credit to loosen a little: Pete Wargent

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<div>EXPERT OBSERVER</div>
<div> </div>
<div>With the blindingly obvious caveat that an index doesn't denote anything meaningful for individual properties, metropolitan housing prices are now rising again. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Sydney and Melbourne home values both rose over the week for the first time since all the way back in 2017, with a 0.3 per cent gain for Sydney, and a marginal increase in Melbourne. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-8aKda9WEHZw/XOzUrFfUKCI/AAAAAAAAwPY/bVa47XyYWFE9z_9Ok9_shvSS0oifxwaDgCLcBGAs/s640/NAB.jpg" width="640" height="424" data-original-height="488" data-original-width="735"></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>
<span>Commonwealth Bank CEO Matt Comyn reported the largest volume of loan applications in six months this week, now that the looming threat of wholesale changes to taxation has been extinguished. </span><br><span><br></span><span>Whether or not those loans are approved on a timely basis...let's see. </span>
</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div>
<span>The bottom's been 'n' gone in the established housing market, but ne</span><span>w dwelling markets still have a long way to clear. </span>
</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>It was interesting to note during the downturn phase that all those old real estate clichés about there 'always' being a level of competition for A-grade stock did to a large extent hold true.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div>In saying that, some investors still got battered by paying wildly inflated prices during the frenzied peak, or through overcapitalising. </div>
<p><em><strong>PETE WARGENT</strong> is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em><span> </span></p>
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The property rebound is on: Pete Wargent

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<p>It was a tricky year in the property markets last year, with the landscape shifting in some capitals following the Federal election which saw a new FHB initiative.</p>
<p>There were many stories that caught the eye of our readership.</p>
<p>Property Observer's 19 most popular stories of 2019 including our regular columnist Terry Ryder who endeavoured to point out <a href="/expert-insights/investing/australias-top-10-property-price-growth-areas-in-2019-hotspottings-terry-ryder">Australia's top 10 property price growth areas</a>.</p>
<p>There was also Ryder's contribution on <a href="/expert-insights/buying">Where is it a good time to be buying property in 2019</a>.</p>
<p>There was also strong reader interest in the <a href="/expert-insights/top-five-suburbs-for-property-investors-in-2019-margaret-lomas">Top five suburbs for property investors in 2019: by Margaret Lomas</a>.</p>
<p>Bad news triggered strong interest especially when <a href="/news/prestige-melbourne-home-builder-canny-builders-goes-into-voluntary-administration">Prestige Melbourne home builder Canny Builders went into voluntary administration</a>. </p>
<p>In Sydney there was the <a href="/expert-insights/investing/chinese-epping-developer-collapse-sees-61-gondon-elysee-apartments-for-sale">Chinese Epping developer collapse triggering 61 Gondon Elysee apartments for sale</a>.</p>
<p>We watched after <a href="/news/landmark-white-shares-fall-10-percent-after-dark-web-data-revelation">LandMark White shares fall 10 percent after dark web data revelation</a>.</p>
<p>A big story was after cracks emerged in the apartment market with concerns over the quality of construction.</p>
<p>The issue extended to legacy builders as evident when <a href="/news/cracks-see-frasers-property-clemton-park-village-caught-up-in-widening-apartment-building-defect-calamity">Cracks saw Frasers Property Clemton Park Village caught up in widening apartment building defect calamity</a>.</p>
<p>Readers were keen to see the <a href="/news/nsw-government-to-appoint-building-commissioner-following-industry-reform-report">NSW government appoint Building Commissioner following industry reform report</a>.</p>
<p>There were <a href="/news/precast-column-movement-concerns-stops-work-at-cbus-447-collins-street-pantscraper-twin-tower-project">Precast column movement concerns that briefly stopped work at CBUS 447 Collins Street, Pantscraper twin tower project</a>.</p>
<p>There were emerging trends including <a href="/expert-insights/techfin-and-the-technology-battle-of-the-banks">Techfin and the technology battle of the banks</a>. </p>
<p>Along with build to rent. <a href="/news/nsw-government-shortlists-three-consortia-for-redfern-build-to-rent-development">NSW Government shortlists three consortia for Redfern build-to-rent development</a>.</p>
<p><span>The 19th most popular article was a curiosity story showing the a<a href="/news/precast-column-movement-concerns-stops-work-at-cbus-447-collins-street-pantscraper-twin-tower-project"> </a>s</span>hift to residency seeing <a href="/news/shift-to-residency-sees-sydneys-palm-beach-top-ato-tax-payers-list">Sydney's Palm Beach top ATO tax payers list</a>. </p>
<p>There's no higher profile celebrity than <a href="/news/selling-houses-australias-andrew-winter-lists-his-own-reno">Selling Houses Australia's property guru Andrew Winter who listed his own reno</a>. It did sell eventually.</p>
<p>Readers loved it when <a href="/news/delta-goodrem-secures-4-8-million-paparazzi-proof-sydney-bolthole">Delta Goodrem secured a $4.8 million paparazzi-proof Sydney bolthole</a>.</p>
<p>The Block always captures attend and last year it was <a href="/expert-insights/building/the-agencys-jesse-raeburn-portrayed-as-cocky-contestant-on-skint-the-block-goldrush-series">The Agency's Jesse Raeburn when portrayed as cocky contestant on skint The Block Goldrush series</a>.</p>
<p>There's no sale yet but readers were interested in <a href="/news/mortgage-choice-co-founder-peter-higgins-lists-sydney-polo-club">Mortgage Choice co-founder Peter Higgins listing Sydney Polo Club</a>.</p>
<p>Development projects always attract interest: we saw strong readership of the <a href="/expert-insights/buying/development-approval-for-goldfields-project-in-chatswood">Development approval for Goldfields project in Chatswood</a>.</p>
<p>Plus interest when the <a href="/expert-insights/investing/historic-cyclops-leichhardt-toy-factory-listed-with-development-potential">Historic Cyclops, Leichhardt toy factory was listed with development potential</a>.</p>
<p>There was interest when the <a href="/expert-insights/investing/leichhardt-warehouse-with-residential-development-potential-sold-for-3-335-million">Leichhardt warehouse with residential development potential sold for $3.335 million</a>.</p>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Property Observer's top 19 stories of 2019

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>According to ABS housing finance data for August 2019, first home buyers comprised the largest proportion of national owner occupier mortgage activity since early 2012.  </p>
<p>The data showed first home buyers comprised 29.8% of the national market for owner occupier home loans; almost five percentage points above the decade average of 25%.</p>
<p> A similar trend can be seen across every state, with first home buyers a larger proportion of the market relative to the decade average.<br><br>There are a variety of factors that have provided first time buyers with a leg up into the housing market.  Housing affordability has improved through the recent housing downturn, mortgage rates have come down, home loan servicing rules have been relaxed and some states have provided additional incentives for first home buyers in the form of stamp duty exemptions or discounts as well as existing first home buyer grants which generally apply to the purchase of new dwellings across most states.  </p>
<p><img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2019-10/first_home_buyers_as_a_of_all_owner_occupier_mortgage_commitments_nationally.png" width="600" height="251"></p>
<p>First home buyers, as a % of all owner occupier mortgage commitments nationally</p>
<p>There’s also the fact that first home buyers haven’t had to compete as fiercely with investors, with investor activity generally trending lower since peaking in 2015 at 43% of mortgage demand.  The August update shows investors comprised only 26% of mortgage demand which is well below the decade average of 34%.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2019-10/first_home_buyers_nsw_and_vic.png" width="600" height="266"></p>
<p>First home buyers are the most active across the Northern Territory and Western Australia where this segment of the market comprises 45% and 37% respectively of owner occupier mortgage demand.  These are also the two regions where housing values have fallen the most, providing a substantial improvement to housing affordability.  Dwelling values are down 27% since peaking across the Northern Territory and 23% lower since peaking across Western Australia.  </p>
<p><img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2019-10/first_home_buyers_qld_and_sa.png" width="600" height="262"></p>
<p><br>The regions where first home buyers are the least active are South Australia and Tasmania where first time buyers comprised 22% and 24% of owner occupier mortgage demand in August.  Despite being the lowest of any state, first home buyer participation remains above the decade average in these regions. </p>
<p><img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2019-10/first_home_buyers_wa_and_tas.png" width="600" height="241"></p>
<p>Looking forward it’s likely first home buyer’s will reduce as a proportion of overall market activity.  Housing prices are once again rising across most regions of the country while growth in household incomes remain sluggish, which will create renewed housing affordability pressures in markets where home values are rising faster than incomes.  </p>
<p><img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2019-10/first_home_buyers_nt_and_act_0.png" width="600" height="246"></p>
<p><br><br>Additionally, investor activity is likely to ramp up as the prospects for capital gain start to become more widespread and the spread between rental yields and mortgage rates remains around record lows.  Capital city gross rental yields are tracking at 3.7% compared with three year fixed rate mortgages for investment purposes tracking around 3.8%.  In the past, rising home values and greater participation from investors has seen first home buyer activity reduce.<br><br>The First Home Loan Deposit Scheme, which goes live in January next year is likely to be oversubscribed, however we aren’t expecting this program to make a substantial difference to overall first home buyer participation rates considering the scheme is capped at 10,000 buyers, which equates to less than 10% of first home buyers numbers over the past year.</p>
<p><em><strong>TIM LAWLESS</strong> is the CoreLogic Head of Research</em></p>
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tlawless-5VLUrbAk9s

First home buyers accounted for largest segment of mortgage activity since 2012: Tim Lawless

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>There is a wide-spread belief that Reserve Bank Governor Lowe’s speech on 21 May clearly indicated that the RBA are set to cut official interest rates on Tuesday 4 June when they next meet.</p>
<p>While I (and the interest rate futures market and the overwhelming majority of economic commentators) believe that is still the most likely outcome, I can see a scenario whereby the RBA once again keeps rates on hold.</p>
<p>People love to tell me that housing isn’t the economy, and they’re right it isn’t however, it is the largest single asset class in the country and thereby pretty important to the health of the economy. Over recent weeks there have been a number of changes that have been overall a positive for the housing market going forward:</p>
<p>There was no change of government at the federal election. Whether you believe that changing the rules around negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount would have a big impact on the market or not, those proposed changes did inject a level of uncertainty into the market.</p>
<p>While the Labor Party was expected by most to win the election, the aftermath of a Coalition win seems to have seen a level of confidence returning to the market.</p>
<p>Dwelling value declines were already slowing but now lenders are reporting much higher levels of mortgage demand and auction clearance rates last week lifted to their highest level nationally since mid-May last year and in Sydney they increased to their highest level since April last year. </p>
<p>APRA has signalled they are looking to change serviceability calculations on new mortgages.</p>
<p>Ultimately it will mean that some people that previously weren’t able to borrow will be able to and those that could already borrow will potentially be able to borrow more.</p>
<p>Again, these changes aren’t yet live but once implemented, easier access to a housing loan should support a lift in market activity and help to provide a floor under housing prices.</p>
<p>The RBA flagged that interest rates would be reduced. After official interest rates have remained on hold for 33 months, Governor Lowe dropped his biggest hint yet that interest rates will be reduced in June during his speech on the 21 May.</p>
<p>Interest rate cuts put more cash in mortgage holders pockets, if someone is struggling to repay their mortgage they can contact their banks and ask for a reduction in repayments (assuming lenders pass on a cut which is highly likely) and for those that choose not to reduce their repayments they end up paying back more of the loan principal thereby paying down debt quicker.</p>
<p>Furthermore, a lower cash rate typically means lower interest rates on savings accounts, thereby reducing the incentive to save and increasing the incentive to spend.</p>
<p>All three of those items are overall a positive for the housing market. It is important to note that items two and three have not yet happened so anyone now buying could have bought pre-election but chose not to.</p>
<p>To me that indicates a concern around policy changes proposed by the party perceived as most likely to win the election. So with the largest asset class looking more positive why would the RBA choose to cut now? It’s not a cut about housing it is a cut related to economic growth and inflation.</p>
<p>Headline inflation was unchanged over the March quarter and just 1.3% higher over the year.</p>
<p>The RBA’s preferred measure of underlying inflation was 0.2% over the quarter and 1.4% higher over the year, both drifting further away from the 2% to 3% target range. Underlying inflation has been allowed to sit below the target range since December 2015 and hasn’t hit the midpoint (2.5%) since September 2014.</p>
<p>Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or economic growth was recorded as 0.2% over the December 2018 quarter its lowest growth rate since September 2016. On an annual basis, GDP rose 2.3% which was its slowest rate of growth since June 2017.So we have low inflation and sluggish economic growth, which has been the case for some time but both have weakened further in their recent releases.</p>
<p>The RBA has repeatedly stated the main reason for not cutting interest rates is the strength of the labour market however, it has now also weakened. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the unemployment rate in April 2019 was 5.2% having risen for two consecutive months and the highest unemployment rate since August 2018.</p>
<p>Although the unemployment rate has risen, annual jobs growth has increased to 2.6%, its fastest growth rate since June 2018 and the workforce participation rate at 65.8%, the highest it’s been since January 2018.</p>
<p>So while the unemployment rate has weakened, more people are in work or looking for work and job creation has accelerated. We should note that unemployment is typically a lagging indicator and measures of job advertisements are showing slowdown over recent months.</p>
<p>Given all of this, I still believe than an interest rate cut on June 4 is the most likely scenario but I won’t be surprised if the RBA, which has taken a slow and measured approach to cash rate setting of late, is tempted to wait another month.</p>
<p>Waiting another month will allow the RBA to gather more evidence as to whether the housing market is truly improving and it will afford them the luxury of seeing the March quarter GDP figures which are released the day after their board meeting (June 5).</p>
<p>Another weak quarter of economic growth will surely trigger the need for a 25 basis point or even 50 basis point cut to the cash rate in July. Furthermore, by the time of the RBA’s July board meeting there will be another read on the labour force and if there is another monthly increase in the unemployment rate that surely constitutes a trend.</p>
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ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

What if the RBA doesn't cut rates? Cameron Kusher

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>Dwelling value drops of -7.2% over the year to April 2019 highlights just how easy it can be to forget the diversity across property market performance as some regions continue to deliver solid growth conditions while others drag averages lower.</p>
<p>Over the 12 months to April 2019, Adelaide, Hobart and Canberra were the only capital cities in which dwelling values haven’t fallen. Although value declines have been prevalent, there are certain SA2 regions which have significantly outperformed the broad capital city and equally many regions have significantly underperformed.</p>
<p><strong> Sydney:</strong> With dwelling values having fallen by -10.9% over the year to April 2019, only two SA2 regions, both of which are located in the Blue Mountains, have recorded annual growth. A further region of the Blue Mountains has recorded one of the most moderate declines along with two regions on the Northern Beaches. In terms of the Sydney regions with the greatest value declines, SA2 regions in the Inner South West are prevalent on the list.</p>
<p><strong>Melbourne:</strong> Over the 12 months to April 2019, dwelling values have reduced by 10.0%. Only two SA2 regions have recorded a rise in values and the five regions with the strongest annual change were located close to the city centre, demonstrating some strength in the established unit market. On the other hand, the five regions that have recorded the greatest annual fall were all located in Melbourne’s Inner East.</p>
<p><strong> Brisbane:</strong> Dwelling values are down marginally over the past year, having fallen by -1.9%. The top five SA2 regions with the strongest value growth over the past year are all located in the west of the city and are either within or towards Ipswich. The regions with the largest value falls are much more varied with some emphasis around areas with a mix of residential and industrial land uses featuring on the list.</p>
<p><strong>Adelaide:</strong> Over the past year, dwelling values have continued to rise (marginally) up 0.3% over the year. The strongest performing regions are all located either within the Central and Hills region or the North region of the city. The regions with the largest annual value falls are more mixed, with two situated in the Central and Hills region, two in the North and one in the South.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/5/9/May%209%20Property%20Pulse%202.JPG" target="_blank">Click</a> to enlarge.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/5/9/May%209%20Property%20Pulse%202.JPG" alt=""></p>
<p><strong>Perth:</strong> Dwelling values have been falling since mid 2014 and have declined by a further -8.3% over the 12 months to April 2019. Given this it is no surprise only one SA2 region of the city has recorded an increase in values over the year. The regions with the most moderate declines were all located in either the North West or North East of the city. Conversely, the 5 regions with the largest value falls over the past year were all in either Perth’s South West or Mandurah highlighting a fairly distinct area in which the largest falls are occurring.</p>
<p><strong>Hobart:</strong> Values have increased by 3.8% over the past year which is the largest annual increase of all capital cities. The areas with the strongest value growth over the year are quite diverse both geographically and based on the value of dwellings however, 3 are situated in the North East. The list includes some of the most affordable and most expensive regions of the city. Four of the five regions with the most moderate value change over the year are located in the city centre and are some of the most expensive regions of the city.</p>
<p><strong>Darwin:</strong> Dwelling values have been falling since mid2015 and have declined by a further -7.1% over the past year. With such weak conditions only one region of the city (Wagaman) recorded an increase in values. The regions with the most moderate value declines were typically amongst the more expensive areas of the city. Conversely, the areas in which value falls were greatest were generally located close to the city centre however, highlighting the ongoing weakness across the inner city apartment sector.</p>
<p><strong>Canberra: </strong>Over the 12 months to April 2019, dwelling values in Canberra have risen by 2.5%. Four of the five regions with the greatest value increase over the past year were located in the northern area of the city around Belconnen and Gungahlin. Meanwhile three of the five weakest markets over the year were also in the north of the city while some of the weakest performers were amongst the most affordable regions of the city. With dwelling values falling broadly across the capital cities, there are still some precincts where values are continuing to trend higher, although the list of positive growth areas has shrunk over the past year.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/5/9/May%209%20Property%20Pulse.JPG" target="_blank">Click</a> to enlarge.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/5/9/May%209%20Property%20Pulse.JPG" alt=""></p>
<p>Looking to the data there is some suggestion that in individual cities certain geographic areas and value points are more likely to still be seeing values increase than others.</p>
<p><em><span>CAMERON KUSHER</span> is the head of research for the Australian branch of CoreLogic</em></p>
<p><em>Kusher regularly posts on the <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/taxonomy/corelogic-people/cameron-kusher" target="_blank">CoreLogic website</a>.</em></p>
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Capital city dwelling values drop 7.2% in 1 year: Cameron Kusher

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<p>Australian household balance sheets are seeing significant shifts that are likely to restrain demand and are a key risk to the domestic outlook, according to Westpac's latest Red Book.</p>
<p>In particular, a prospective ‘wealth effect’ drag on demand stemming from the decline in house prices is a major area of uncertainty. </p>
<p>Given the importance of this issue, Westpac economists will be providing more regular updates going forward.</p>
<p>For the most part this will be building on previous commentary profiling trends by state, looking at consumer sentiment during previous wealth effect episodes, sizing the current wealth decline, and providing some sensitivity analysis around potential wealth effects.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/4/18/Redbook%20Wealth%20Effect%201.JPG" alt=""></p>
<p><em>(Source: Westpac)</em></p>
<p>The housing correction is starting to have a clearer impact on the household balance sheet.</p>
<p>The total value of dwelling assets fell $270bn over 2018, reflecting both lower prices and slower dwelling completions.</p>
<p>The decline amounts to 40% of annual income and is about half of the peak to trough falls seen in the GFC and 2011-12 correction.</p>
<p>While the overall decline in net worth, including other assets, is a touch milder than our early estimates it has clearly extended into 2019.</p>
<p>Chart 14 shows Westpac estimates of household net worth and savings rates by state updated to Q4.</p>
<p><em><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/4/18/Redbook%20Wealth%20Effect%202.JPG" alt=""></em></p>
<p><em>(Source: Westpac)</em></p>
<p>Recall that the ‘signature’ of a wealth effect drag is a fall in net worth accompanied by a rise in the savings rate, the latter meaning that spending is growing at a slower pace than incomes.</p>
<p>Also Westpac noted that these estimates are compiled from a range of annual and quarterly benchmarks, and as such should be treated as broadly indicative. </p>
<p>The latest estimates show larger falls in net worth in NSW and Vic where declines are closer to 60% of annual income. That said, they also show the extent of the prior run up with net worth in both states still well above 2015 levels. </p>
<p>On savings, the latest data again points to declines concentrated in NSW and Vic consistent with a wealth effect boost to spending rather than a drag. Any hint of a turn in Q1 will be a key pointer to demand.</p>
<p>The Wealth effect has been seen to have supported demand over 2013-17.</p>
<p>Falls in wealth are less likely to impact when the labour market is strong and income growth is firm.</p>
<p>The latest spending detail shows a clear slowing in wealth-sensitive items, slightly more so in NSW, Vic and WA.</p>
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