Buyers considering a residence at boutique Gordon townhouse development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/lume-gordon-43-47-dumaresq-street-gordon-nsw-2072">Lume</a>&nbsp;now have another reason to bring forward their decision.

For a limited time, purchasers of a residence at Lume will receive a BMW iX3 50 electric SUV, valued at more than $120,000, as part of their purchase. The offer is designed to add value for buyers while complementing the lifestyle envisioned for the architecturally designed Upper North Shore development.

Scott Timmins, Development Manager at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/winim">WINIM</a>, said the partnership was created to provide buyers with a compelling reason to act.

"In today's market, buyers need a compelling reason to act now, and the BMW partnership was designed to create that catalyst. We wanted to add genuine value for our future purchasers. Choosing the all-electric BMW iX3 50 also reflects the values behind LUME, forward-thinking design, innovation and a more sustainable way of living. It's a premium incentive that complements the lifestyle our buyers aspire to and rewards those who commit early."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7354 project_image_fid=374893]

Delivered by WINIM in partnership with Burtonwood Investment Partners, Lume comprises 14 architecturally designed two, three and four-bedroom townhomes created for families seeking the space of a freestanding house with the ease of modern, low-maintenance living.

The three-storey residences, designed by award-winning architecture practice <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a>, have been tailored for families and multi-generational living, featuring private internal lifts, flexible lower-level spaces, generous open-plan living and entertaining areas, media rooms, and landscaped outdoor spaces with custom outdoor kitchens.&nbsp;

Inside, engineered oak flooring, bespoke dining joinery with integrated wine fridges and backlit bars, sculptural porcelain bathrooms, Parisi freestanding baths and Astra Walker tapware create interiors that balance functionality with refined finishes.

Each townhome has been designed to combine generous internal spaces with sustainability initiatives such as EV charging infrastructure, while <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/arcadia-landscape-architecture">Arcadia</a>'s landscaped communal areas, centred around a restored creek line and native planting, encourage residents to connect with nature and spend more time outdoors.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7354 project_image_fid=269527]

Rothelowman's Gary Tsui said the architecture was conceived to respond carefully to its Upper North Shore setting.

"Our vision was to create elegant, uplifting homes that draw on and positively contribute to the local character through meticulously considered design and an interaction with the surroundings."

The communal landscape has been designed as more than an open space between homes. Arcadia's Ben Newell and Kate Phillips said the adjoining reserve provided an opportunity to create a distinctive natural retreat for residents.

"Just as waterways carve their way through Ku-ring-gai's landscape, a raised boardwalk weaves through the reserve, connecting the homes to this tranquil oasis."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7354 project_image_fid=374892]

Located just 300 metres from <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/gordon-nsw-2072">Gordon</a> Village and Gordon railway station, Lume offers convenient access to Sydney's CBD while placing residents close to some of the North Shore's leading schools, including Ravenswood, Pymble Ladies' College and Knox Grammar. Lane Cove National Park, Gordon Golf Club and a range of cafés and restaurants further reinforce the family-focused lifestyle on offer, with the BMW iX3 50 complementing everything from local trips around Gordon to weekend drives and city commutes.

Construction is underway with completion expected in mid-2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=7354]

Joel Robinson

Boutique Gordon townhomes now come with a BMW iX3 50

Two apartments have sold for more than $10 million at EADE Byron Bay, setting some of the highest apartment prices ever achieved in the coastal town and underlining the growing appetite for luxury beachfront apartments in Australia's most popular coastal locations.

The $210 million project by Vitale Property Group has now secured more than $70 million in sales, led by residences that changed hands for $12.75 million and $11.75 million.

The record-breaking transactions reinforce the shift occurring in Byron Bay's premium property market, where affluent downsizers and lifestyle buyers are increasingly opting for high-end apartments over large beachfront homes.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/eade-byron-bay-29-shirley-street-byron-bay-nsw-2481">EADE Byron Bay</a> occupies a rare 6,000 sqm absolute beachfront site on the corner of Shirley and Milton Streets overlooking Main Beach and The Wreck surf break, just 350 metres from Byron Bay's town centre.

The 25-residence development is the first beachfront apartment project approved in Byron Bay in more than a decade and is currently under construction, with completion expected in May 2027.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145590 project_image_fid=359521]

The project has attracted a mix of local Byron Shire residents downsizing from larger homes, alongside interstate buyers from Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane seeking a permanent coastal lifestyle without compromising on space.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/hayball">Hayball</a> and with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/alexander-co">Alexander &amp; Co</a>, EADE comprises&nbsp;10 garden apartments ranging from 284 sqm to 622 sqm, nine with private pools, five full-floor apartments and 10 rooftop residences with private plunge pools, expansive outdoor entertaining areas and uninterrupted ocean views.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145590 project_image_fid=359527]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/vitale-property-group">Vitale Property Group</a> Managing Partner Chris Vitale said the project's combination of scale, location and limited future supply was driving buyer demand.

"There isn't another beachfront holding in Byron Bay of this size and position that could be developed again," Vitale said.

"Buyers are responding to the scarcity and the irreplaceability of a site of this calibre and to floorplans they can't find elsewhere in the market.

"We are seeing buyers place significant value on quality, space, design, resort-style amenities and the rarity of the location. The sales achieved to date demonstrate that discerning purchasers recognise the long-term significance of what is being created at EADE Byron Bay.

"Many are coming from larger homes in the Byron region, or from Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane, and are after the space, security and convenience, without the upkeep of a house."

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145590 project_image_fid=359523]

The Byron Bay project follows Vitale Property Group's delivery of the Mondrian Hotel and Private Residences at Burleigh Heads, with EADE continuing the developer's focus on luxury coastal developments.

Residents will have access to a resort-style swimming pool, gymnasium, sauna, cold plunge pool, concierge services and dedicated workspaces, while the project is targeting an 8-Star Green Star rating.

EADE Byron Bay is being exclusively marketed by Projx Australia in conjunction with WHITEFOX Projects.

WHITEFOX National Projects Director Phillip Rand said demand had been driven predominantly by owner-occupiers.

"We are seeing buyers at EADE place significant value on quality, space, design, resort-style amenities and the rarity of this location," Rand says.

"The sales achieved to date demonstrate that purchasers at this level recognise the long-term significance of what is being created at EADE Byron Bay."

Residences at EADE Byron Bay are currently priced between $4.75 million and $15.95 million.

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[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=145590]

Vitale breaks Byron Bay records with EADE sales flurry 

When buying an apartment, most people compare the big-ticket items first. Floorplans. Kitchens. Balcony size. Natural light. The view.

But there's one everyday consideration that often doesn't come up until after moving in: how parcels are delivered.

As online shopping has become part of everyday life, parcel deliveries have shifted from an occasional event to a regular occurrence. Australians spent a record $82.6 billion shopping online in 2025, with almost one in every four retail dollars now spent digitally.

For apartment residents, that can present a challenge.

If nobody is home to accept a delivery, parcels may be redirected to a nearby Post Office, left in a building lobby or common area, or require building management to step in. In higher-density buildings, where dozens or even hundreds of residents may receive deliveries each day, parcel management has become an increasingly important part of everyday living.

That can create a range of frustrations. A missed delivery often means making time to collect a parcel elsewhere, while packages left unattended in foyers or mail areas can create clutter and increase the risk of theft. What seems like a minor inconvenience can quickly become a recurring issue for residents who shop online regularly.

It's one of those details that rarely features in a display suite but can have a noticeable impact once residents move in.

As a result, buyers are beginning to look beyond traditional apartment features and consider how a building supports day-to-day convenience, including whether there are secure options for receiving deliveries.

Australia Post's Parcel Lockers provide one solution.

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/CkF2oKmlACg?si=C50sDaoUUn2nuLmq" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>

Rather than having a parcel delivered directly to an apartment, eligible deliveries can be sent to a nominated Parcel Locker. Once the parcel arrives, residents receive a notification through the AusPost app or SMS and can collect it using a QR code or one-time PIN at a time that suits them.

The Parcel Locker network now includes more than 1,500 locations nationwide, with installations at Post Offices, shopping centres, transport hubs and an increasing number of residential developments. By providing a secure collection point, Parcel Lockers help reduce missed deliveries and avoid parcels being left unattended in common areas.

For developers, parcel infrastructure is becoming another way to improve the resident experience. Rather than relying on concierge staff or leaving parcels in communal spaces, secure collection points help streamline deliveries while preserving the presentation and functionality of shared areas.

For buyers, it's a reminder that the best apartment features aren't always the most obvious.

A generous floorplan or quality finishes might help narrow the shortlist, but the conveniences that simplify everyday life, whether that's EV charging, secure bike storage or reliable parcel delivery, often become the features residents appreciate most once they're living there.

The apartment feature many buyers don't think about, until their first missed delivery

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/hg-developments">HG Developments</a> is doubling down on Maud Street in Newstead, filing plans for a new apartment tower just a few doors down from its under-construction Aire Newstead development.

Recently submitted to Brisbane City Council, the proposal is for an 18-storey building designed by bureau^proberts, which has drawn heavily on Brisbane's subtropical design principles while referencing the suburb's industrial heritage.

A total of 64 apartments are planned for the amalgamated 1,518 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/17-21-maud-street-newstead-qld-4006">17–21 Maud Street</a>, a short walk from the Brisbane River and Newstead Riverwalk.

<img alt="First look: HG Developments plans 18-storey subtropical apartment tower for Newstead" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a400c7fd-bd15-48f8-a63b-10ede92efe00" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Maud%20st%20bldg.png?VersionId=.0vPmjpbC7CNP7kqGWa6L7rGIwsNExaw" />

"The building is defined by a series of vaulted motifs that reinterpret the arches, colonnades and layered facades evident throughout Newstead's historic built fabric," the Urban Design Report states.

"Combined with recessed glazing and generous balconies, these elements create a layered building envelope that provides shade, weather protection and opportunities for natural ventilation whilst establishing a distinctive architectural identity."

The proposal comprises 64 two, three and four-bedroom apartments across 18 residential levels, positioning it alongside a growing number of taller residential projects transforming Newstead's northern precinct. The tower incorporates extensive subtropical landscaping, with cascading planter boxes, deep planting at street level and a landscaped rooftop recreation area.

<img alt="First look: HG Developments plans 18-storey subtropical apartment tower for Newstead" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="1d8140f4-8b98-45cd-b1b8-1efe8c8e266b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Maud%20st%20podium.png?VersionId=VAZtbCoD44YCJ57N99fQCAKeSJx7ldZs" />

Bureau Proberts has prioritised passive environmental design throughout the project, with generous balconies, recessed glazing and operable façades helping reduce solar heat gain while maximising natural ventilation. River views become available from the upper levels, while the building has been orientated to capture prevailing breezes from both the Brisbane River and the west.

The architects say landscape is intended to be integral to the building rather than an applied element.

"Vertical greenery, cascading planter boxes and elevated gardens are woven throughout the architecture, softening the built form and strengthening the connection between residents and the subtropical environment."

"Through the integration of landscape, high-quality materials and passive design principles, the development delivers a refined residential address that celebrates Newstead's heritage character while contributing positively to Brisbane's evolving subtropical identity."

Newstead has remained one of Brisbane's most active apartment markets in recent years, with a number of developers continuing to back the inner-city suburb.

HG Developments is currently delivering the 40-apartment Aire Newstead at 25 Maud Street. Fortis recently launched the 65-apartment <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/crest-walker-newstead-12-kyabra-street-newstead-qld-4006">Crest &amp; Walker</a> on Kyabra Street, while builder-developer BPG and Don O'Rorke's Consolidated Properties are both expected to launch their respective Newstead projects before the end of the year.

HG Developments doubles down in Newstead with second Maud Street apartment development

Walk past a new apartment development promoting its sustainability credentials and it's easy to picture rooftop gardens, mature trees, landscaped courtyards and residents surrounded by nature.

But in many cases, that's not actually what those sustainability ratings guarantee.

Australia's leading environmental rating tools have played a significant role in improving the energy efficiency and environmental performance of buildings. Yet despite their focus on reducing emissions, many don't require developers to include trees, biodiversity or meaningful green space.

In other words, a building can achieve one of the country's highest sustainability ratings while containing little more than concrete, glass and hard landscaping.

That disconnect has led to the emergence of a new movement across Australia's property industry: nature-based cities.

The concept goes beyond designing buildings that consume less energy. Instead, it encourages developers to treat nature as essential infrastructure, integrating biodiversity, tree canopy, living landscapes and green spaces into projects from the earliest stages of planning.

Research has consistently linked access to nature with better physical and mental health, cooler neighbourhoods, improved biodiversity, stronger climate resilience and more connected communities. As Australia's cities continue to become denser, advocates say those outcomes should be considered just as important as energy efficiency.

Nature Based Cities (NBC) was established in 2022 to help accelerate that shift.

Founded by Hamton Executive Chairman Paul Hameister OAM, the not-for-profit was created after research highlighted a significant gap in Australia's sustainability framework. While existing environmental rating tools rewarded energy performance and emissions reductions, they placed little emphasis on the inclusion of living landscapes.

"We've always wanted to do more, and we know other developers who want to do more, but the ESD rating tools just aren't there," Hameister says.

"In Australia, you can have a five-green-star rated building that's concrete and glass with not a blade of grass.

"The focus is on reducing emissions, which is laudable, but there hasn't been enough attention paid to protecting and re-establishing nature. We need both for the health of the environment and for communities."

Since its launch, NBC has developed independent design guidelines and accreditation frameworks that encourage developers to prioritise ecology, biodiversity, tree canopy, walkability and living landscapes alongside traditional sustainability measures. The organisation first focused on medium and high-density residential developments before recently expanding into precinct-scale communities and masterplanned neighbourhoods.

Jan Talacko, founder of sustainability consultancy Ark Resources and a member of the Nature Based Cities Advisory Council, says the initiative addresses an area that has largely been overlooked by the property industry.

"Throughout my 25 years of working collaboratively with all stakeholders in the property sector, I've always favoured a pragmatic approach to sustainable design which encourages initiatives that not only meet environmental expectations but also improve amenity," Talacko says.

"Whilst we are making steady progress in relation to energy and carbon emissions from buildings, there has been much less emphasis on encouraging biodiversity and tackling the urban heat island effect.

"The Nature Based Cities initiative responds to a gap in the suite of tools currently used by the property development sector, which don't provide sufficient incentive, or recognition, for the integration of landscaping and greenery."

For apartment buyers, the shift is also changing the questions worth asking.

Rather than assuming a sustainable building will naturally include abundant green space, buyers are increasingly being encouraged to look beyond environmental ratings and ask what nature is actually being delivered. How much tree canopy will the development create? Has biodiversity been considered? Are landscaped spaces designed for people as well as appearance?

As Australia's cities continue to grow upwards and outwards, the next generation of sustainability may not simply be measured by lower emissions, but by how successfully developments bring nature back into everyday urban life.

What does it really mean for a building to be 'green'?

Prices Bottomed

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The decline in property prices continued in the June quarter and will most likely mark the bottom of the cycle, according to the latest research from the Real Estate Institute of Australia. 
REIA president Adrian Kelly said REIA Real Estate Market Facts for the June 2019 quarter show weighted average median prices decreased by 1.0 per cent for houses and by 0.6 per cent for other dwellings.  
“This is a continuing decline since June 2018 for both houses and other dwellings, but the decline is slowing,” Kelly said.   “The weighted average median price for houses for the eight capital cities decreased to $720,041 over the quarter, with prices decreasing in all capital cities except for Canberra and Hobart.  “The weighted average median price for other dwellings decreased to $565,753 over the quarter, with prices decreasing in all capital cities except for Melbourne, Hobart and Darwin.”  Kelly said whilst the total number of new finance commitments for the quarter were down 15.1 per cent over last year, including first home buyers down 7.6 per cent it needs to be remembered that the Federal election was held in the middle of the quarter. “There was considerable uncertainty regarding the outcome and concern about changes to property taxation and its impact should there be a change in Government. 
“With the post election boost in confidence in the real estate market as evidenced by higher levels of enquiry, two cuts in interest rates and changes in APRA’s requirements, the June quarter will most likely mark the bottom of the cycle. “Lending figures for the month of June 2019 show, in seasonally adjusted terms, that the number of owner occupied finance commitments excluding refinancing increased by 0.4 per cent.
"The value of investment housing commitments, excluding refinancing, increased by 0.5 per cent in June with the rise driven by the first rise in New South Wales since April 2018.” 
 
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wdavis-8cCN98p7xp

Market hit the bottom in the June quarter: REIA

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The Sydney housing market has bottomed out. Many leading indicators now suggest the current September quarter will record about a 2% rise in Sydney dwelling prices and we are expecting a rise of another 4% for the December Quarter. That should take the full year to about a 1% gain compared to 2018.   But let it be known Sydney has bottomed out at an overvalued point. The data suggests the Sydney housing market remains 21% overvalued despite the two year correction. For reference, the average overvaluation (since 1986) in Sydney is 19% with a low point of 5.9% ‘undervalued’ in June 1987 and a high point of 55.5% overvalued in December 2003.  The most recent overvalued point was 51.6% in the June Quarter 2017. The most recent undervalued point was 1.6% undervalued in September 2012.   This is all based on our view that there is a relationship between nominal GDP and house prices. And when you read this chart we think the evidence is there. Logically there should be a relationship. Housing price rises cannot outpace income growth forever. And the more the gap between the two, the more housing prices have to be supported by cheaper and easier access to credit.   Historically, the Sydney housing market has rarely been undervalued. There has nearly always been some sort of premium attached.
To enlarge, <a href="https://gallery.mailchimp.com/9badbd870addb4af72206c2eb/images/4c539bd2-4f54-4a6b-8cad-28e2a88d92d8.png" target="_blank">click here</a>.   <img src="https://gallery.mailchimp.com/9badbd870addb4af72206c2eb/images/4c539bd2-4f54-4a6b-8cad-28e2a88d92d8.png" width="800" height="444">
Effectively the current point suggests, that, left unchecked, we could soon be heading towards yet another historic overvaluation point similar to levels recorded in 2003 and 2017.
The key word though in this is “unchecked”. How will the regulators respond when they read newspaper headlines of a new booming Sydney housing market recording annualised double digit percentage price growth?     Our initial thinking is they are unlikely to respond well and may introduce more lending restrictions once again. Then again, if the powers that be feel cornered due to perhaps rising unemployment pressure or the need to hit inflation targets, etc., they may well let the market run.   And then finally consider what happens if we have another rate cut?
Louis Christopher is the managing director of <a href="https://sqmresearch.com.au/" target="_blank">SQM Research</a>.
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Sydney housing market has bottomed out: SQM's Louis Christopher

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The ANZ Bank has revised its forecast and now sees the bottoming of the housing market "in the coming months" following the policy turnaround. 
Economists Felicity Emmett and Adelaide Timbrell have forecasted prices will rise modestly through to the end of 2019.
They expect a three percent growth in 2020.
"After a period of significant weakness, house prices appear to be stabilising," their latest Australian Housing Update read.
"Sydney prices have fallen 15%, while Melbourne’s are down 11%," they advised.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/16/Monthly%20housing%20prices%20ANZ.jpg" alt="">
"Brisbane prices have fallen only modestly, while Adelaide prices have been broadly stable.
"Perth remains weak, but Hobart has been a standout.
They cite the election result, back the back RBA cash rate cuts and APRA loosening their lending serviceability have all contributed to the quickening of the end of the downturn.
"All of these factors have helped to shift sentiment from one of pervasive negativity to cautious optimism," Emmett and Timbrell said.
They warned however against a property boom that we saw from 2012 to 2017.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/16/Capital%20city%20prices%20v%20auction%20results%20ANZ.jpg" alt="">
"While the outlook definitely looks more positive, we do not expect a V-shaped recovery for prices," the report noted.
"Our view for some time has been that the tightening in credit has been the major driver of weakness, and while there has been some easing at the margin, changes to the use of Household Expenditure Measure (HEM) and the introduction of comprehensive credit reporting will offset some of the impact.
"Moreover, there is still a substantial amount of supply coming on stream, particularly in Sydney where the rental vacancy rate is at a 15-year high.
"This all suggests that the recovery is likely to be a fairly modest one.
 
 
 
 
 
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ANZ sees bottoming of the housing market in coming months

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The residential downturn is expected to reach bottom in most Australian markets by as early as the end of 2019 or early 2020 – much sooner than previously predicted.
In the February release of CBRE’s Real Estate Market Outlook 2019 report we identified the Banking Royal Commission and the federal election as the two ‘unknown’ factors influencing Australia’s residential market outlook.
Signs are now emerging that a controlled relaxation of credit constraints was being managed and forecast interest rates cuts would help stabilise property prices.
The strong likelihood of further rate cuts by the RBA over the remainder of 2019 is expected to boost the prospects of an earlier than anticipated market recovery.
The results of the Banking Royal Commission and federal election would provide some comfort across the remainder of the year, increasing the number of buyers looking to enter residential markets, providing stronger support for prices and bringing forward the cyclical market bottom into 2019.
The federal election’s unexpected result and the relaxation of certain credit market constraints have provided a catalyst for market change.
The Coalition victory means proposed taxation changes impacting investment property, including negative gearing and capital gains tax changes, are off the agenda, while first home buyers have received a modest additional assistance package. The residential markets in general are expected to continue working through their adjustment cycle, with credit availability remaining the key constraint at present.
The results of the Banking Royal Commission were creating a more sustainable credit environment underpinning residential markets, resulting in an arguable credit market overcorrection, with banks appearing to have adjusted their requirements to reflect ‘responsible lending’ practices.
CRAIG GODBER is the Head of Residential Research for CBRE
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Slowing residential headwinds bring market bottom forward: CBRE's Craig Godber

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The negatives weighing on Australian residential property prices remain significant but the past few weeks have seen a number of developments that suggest that prices could bottom earlier and higher than we have been expecting.
The election outcome removed a key threat, but several other factors also help. 
The biggest home price fall in the last 40 years
According to CoreLogic data, capital city dwelling prices are down 9.7% from their September 2017 high, which is their worst decline in the last 40 years.
Of course, there is a huge range here with prices down from their top by 15% in Sydney, 11% in Melbourne, 28% in Darwin, 18% in Perth, 2% in Brisbane, less than 1% in Adelaide and at record highs in Canberra &amp; Hobart
Drags on house prices remain significant…
The decline in prices reflects a range of factors, most notably, a “correction” to the huge surge in prices into 2017 in Sydney and Melbourne that left prices very overvalued relative to income, rents and their long-term trend and affordability very poor and household debt very high. 
The end of the mining investment boom impacting prices in Perth and Darwin since their peak in 2014. 
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/5/23/shallow%201.JPG" alt="">
A tightening in lending standards that initially cracked down on lending to investors but since 2017 moved on to interest only loans and then a more fundamental focus around credit quality which made it harder to get loans. 
A surge in the supply of units to record levels which has led to rising rental vacancy rates in Sydney. 
An 80% collapse in foreign demand. 
A big pool of interest only borrowers switching to principal and interest loans driving higher debt servicing costs. 
Price falls feeding on themselves – just as the boom in prices was accentuated by a fear of missing out (FOMO), falling prices are driving falling price expectations &amp; leading to reduced demand and FONGO (fear of not getting out). 
Investors started to factor in some probability that Labor would win the election which would have meant that negative gearing would be restricted and the capital gains tax discount halved – with estimates that this could have knocked another 5-10% from property prices.
The negatives weighing on the housing market remain significant. In particular, credit conditions are still tight with housing finance still falling with a brief bounce in February giving rise to further falls in March and the start-up of Comprehensive Credit Reporting which will see banks crack down on borrowers with multiple undeclared loans. And the pipeline of units to hit the Sydney and Melbourne markets is still huge as reflected in a still high crane count.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/5/23/Shallow%202.JPG" alt="">
Meanwhile, auction clearance rates in Sydney and Melbourne have risen from their December lows but this looks largely seasonal with clearances still weak at pre-boom levels just above 50% as are sales volumes.
What’s more the number of capital cities seeing monthly price falls has gone from three out of eight a year ago to now seven out of eight. Given all these considerations we have been reluctant to read too much into the slowing in downwards momentum in monthly property price falls in recent months, particularly given that Perth and Darwin have seen several phases where price declines slowed then sped up again during their five-year slump. And Australian housing still remains expensive.
Real house prices have fallen from 27% above their long-term trend to 7% above now, but housing is still expensive compared to incomes and rents. Sydney home prices may have fallen 15% from their 2017 high but this was after a 75% gain since 2012 when wages rose just 14%. And household debt remains very high.
…but some positives are starting to creep in
However, while the drags remain significant several positives have become apparent over the last few weeks. First, financial support for first home buyers is now on the way with the Government’s First Home Loan Deposit (underwriting) Scheme.
On its own it’s not a game changer particularly given that it’s capped in terms of numbers, the borrowers will be taking on bigmortgages, which will come with a higher risk of negative equity, borrowers will still have to meet the tougher credit standards of recent times and it won’t kick in until next year.
That said, with the Federal budget looking even healthier and probably already in surplus thanks to the surging iron ore price, I suspect that the deposit scheme will morph into a far more attractive home buyer grant at some point. Second, APRA is looking to relax the 7% mortgage rate serviceability buffer.
This was inevitable given APRA’s move to focus on more fundamental credit standards and 7% is way out of whack with current interest rates. Again, on its own it’s not a game changer - it wasn’t the main driver of the property downturn and borrowers still have to meet tougher credit standards. And don’t forget that relaxation of the 10% cap on growth in investor loans and the 30% limit on interest only loans last year had little impact. But it may help at the margin.
Third, RBA Governor Lowe has all but confirmed that rate cuts are on the way with his comment that “at our meeting in two weeks’ time, we will consider the case for lower interest rates” after observing that it needs lower unemployment to get inflation back to target.
We expect 0.25% rate cuts in June and August and that the bulk of these will be passed on to borrowers given the recent reduction in bank funding costs. This would be a bit earlier than the August and November rate cuts we were assuming back in January when we last reviewed our house price forecasts.
House prices bottomed around three months after the first cuts in 2008 and 2011. It may take longer this time as debt is now much higher, rates are already very low and lending standards are tougher. But they will still help. Finally, the threat of changes to negative gearing and CGT is gone with Labor’s defeat.
So a big negative for property is gone. Given the difficulty in predicting the election our house price forecasts had allowed for a 50% probability (ie 50/50 Labor would win) of an 8% additional drag on prices in Sydney and Melbourne from this, ie 4%. In other cities it was a bit less. Now it’s zero and we need to remove this from our forecasts.
It’s also worth noting that we have not seen much evidence of panic selling or forced selling by the banks despite rising (but still low) levels of negative equity. Mortgage delinquency rates remain relatively low – even in Perth where prices have fallen 18% and unemployment has spiked.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/5/23/shallow%203.JPG" alt="">
Meanwhile, strong population growth of around 1.6% pa is still driving strong underlying demand for housing at a time when supply is likely to start slowing again next year (given falling building approvals). And vacancy rates while very high in Darwin and above trend and rising in Sydney are actually benign to low in most capital cities and have collapsed in Perth.
So taking all these things together – some of which are minor but are still positive – it’s likely that we are going to see house prices bottom out a bit earlier and higher than we had expected.
What about the risk of higher unemployment?
The main risk is that Australia slides into a downwards spiral as the housing downturn - maybe in concert with a global slump - triggers a surge in unemployment which triggers rising defaults and a further plunge in house prices ultimately causing 30% plus falls in national property prices.
This is still a risk, but we remain of the view that it will be avoided. The housing cycle downturn will lead to the loss of around 60,000 jobs on our estimates. But there are a number of other things that will keep growth going – albeit at a slower pace than the RBA and Government are assuming – but which should be enough to stop unemployment surging beyond 6% and feeding back to become a bigger threat to house prices.
Infrastructure spending is strong, resources investment is close to the bottom, non-mining investment is looking healthier, tax cuts for low and middle income earners next quarter (whether paid upfront or backdated a few weeks later when passed by Parliament) will provide some help, fiscal stimulus is likely to be increased helped by the windfall from the surging iron ore price and rate cuts will provide some help fo households with a mortgage.
Yes, the trade war could spiral out of control – but this probably means more stimulus from China which provides an offset for global growth and explains why the iron ore price keeps rising. The other big risk is that investors decide to exit in the face of low net rental yields &amp; diminished capital growth expectations.
Revised house price forecasts
Our forecasts for national average prices have been for a price fall of 15% top to bottom (of which we have done 10% so far) and for Sydney and Melbourne it’s been for a price fall of 25% top to bottom (of which Sydney has already done 15% and Melbourne 11%) and for prices to bottom in 2020.
Reflecting the considerations discussed above – notably the removal of the threat of changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax, imminent rate cuts, assistance for first home buyers and APRA’s relaxation of the 7% serviceability test - we are revising the estimate for Sydney home prices to a 19% top to bottom fall, Melbourne to 15% top to bottom (partly because it has been holding up much better likely reflecting stronger population growth) and the national average to 12% top to bottom with prices likely to bottom by year end.
However, given still poor affordability, still very high debt debt levels, tighter lending standards and rising unemployment a quick return to boom time conditions is most unlikely.
More likely is a lengthy period of constrained range bound house prices after they bottom later this year (although I thought the same around 2011-12 – but things are different now!).
DR SHANE OLIVER Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist AMP Capital
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Australian house prices approaching the bottom, it looks shallow: Shane Oliver

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Darwin property owners seeking a sale in the first quarter of 2018 should recognise the city’s housing values have bottomed, according to leading real estate group, Raine &amp; Horne. 
“Investment firm AMP Capital l<a name="x__ednref1" href="x-webdoc://DC3B27C2-F28F-4666-9E47-11992185BC89#x__edn1" title=""></a>ast week indicated that the Darwin real estate market has bottomed, which means that local owners should feel less pressure to take the first offer from a buyer,” said Glenn Grantham, general manager at Raine &amp; Horne Darwin.
“The Darwin property market in fact reached the bottom of the price cycle a few months ago, yet there still seems to be many owners believing they must take the first offer that comes their way.”
The failure by owners to recognise that prices have bottomed can be as costly as paying too much at the top of the market cycle, advised Grantham.
“We have heard of instances where some owners at the end of 2017 were accepting auction bids that were considerably lower than the going market rate.
“With the Darwin property market now at the bottom of the cycle, it’s critical that owners work with real estate agents, such as Raine &amp; Horne, who will put their interests first, and secure them the best price possible.”
Markets such as apartments in central Darwin and houses in Palmerston are set to be major buying hotspots in 2018.
“If you recognise that Darwin has reached the bottom of the price cycle, then you need to look at the sub-markets where prices have been most affected,” said Mr Grantham.
“In this regard, it’s hard to go past apartments in the centre of Darwin and houses in Palmerston.”
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/1/17/darwin3.jpg" alt="">
The median 3-bedroom house price in Palmerston is $300,000 and mid-$400,00s for a four-bedroom house, according to Raine &amp; Horne Darwin.
“Inner city, two-bedroom apartments start from around $300,000, and this is the market where we’re seeing more investor activity,” said Mr Grantham.
The wet season which extends to April coincides with an influx of interstate workers moving to Darwin for government and defence work.
“Many of the transient workers buy a Darwin property to live in, before transitioning it to the rental market when they leave,” noted Mr Grantham
“Almost 90% of investors are from interstate who move to Darwin for short to medium periods and recognise its property market offers the prospect of immediate price affordability and long-term growth. 
“Workers from interstate often purchase Darwin properties with an understanding that when they leave, they’ll keep it as an investment asset that can produce growth and income yields significantly higher than the southern capitals.”
Raine &amp; Horne Darwin has 66 properties on their books.
Their priciest is an apartment in the <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-apartment-nt-darwin+city-119146115" target="_blank">Evolution on Gardiner</a> building in the city which has views of the water (top and above).
Agents Glen Grantham and Dan Campbell are asking for $985,000 for the three bedroom, two bathroom apartment.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/1/17/darwin2.jpg" alt="">
Grantham and Campbell are also marketing an off the plan townhouse in the <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-townhouse-nt-the+gardens-123840718" target="_blank">Terrace Gardens project</a> (above).
The three bedroom, two bathroom townhouse is priced at $825,000.
There has only been one Darwin sale by the Raine &amp; Horne Darwin team this year. That was an <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-apartment-nt-darwin+city-120654785" target="_blank">apartment in the Marrakai complex</a> (below) which sold for $350,000.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/1/17/marrakai.jpg" alt="">
The ninth level apartment with two bedrooms and two bathrooms last traded for $245,000 in 2000 and had been on the market for over two years.
It initially sought a price between $520,000 and $550,000.
A unit Raine &amp; Horne sold in Cullen Bay went back in price late last year when it sold for $485,000.
The two bedroom apartment overlooking Cullen Bay Marina last sold for $620,000 in 2008, and even $500,000 in 2007, still above its price today 10 years later.
 
 
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