<p>Just a few months after acquiring a prime Broadbeach site on the corner of First Avenue and Surf Parade, family-run developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/raptis">Raptis</a> has filed fresh plans for a new apartment development.</p>

<p>Raptis is seeking to deliver a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/17-19-first-avenue-broadbeach-qld-4217">29-storey tower with 73 apartments</a> on the 818 sqm site. It will be the developer's seventh project in the suburb, as they are approaching completion of The Sterling on George Avenue.</p>

<p>There will be a pool, barbecue and outdoor dining area, residents lounge and dining, sauna and steam room, gym, and a Yoga and Pilates studio.</p>

<p><img alt="Raptis" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b554da3f-7344-49aa-b1c9-44cf459af0d7" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-05%20at%2010.41.45%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=zzjWu1iO1wnuYv4EV4fyOyf5nSXjGYut" /></p>

<p>Raptis Joint Managing Director, Evan Raptis, says they remain&nbsp;committed to developing quality infill sites across the Gold Coast in the lead-up to the 2032 Brisbane Olympics.</p>

<p>"This project continues our long track record of delivery in Broadbeach, and we look forward to bringing another premium development to this thriving precinct."</p>

<p>The announcement follows strong delivery momentum for Raptis, with The Sterling Broadbeach nearing completion and construction well underway on the final stage of the Waterpoint community adjacent to Harbour Town. The developer's continued investment in the Gold Coast reflects confidence in the region's apartment market fundamentals, underpinned by sustained Southeast Queensland population growth.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The outlook for the region is further bolstered by infrastructure investment tied to the Brisbane 2032 Olympic Games, which is expected to drive continued economic and population growth across the SEQ corridor.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Subject to a favourable response from Gold Coast City Council, construction on the new First Avenue tower is targeted to commence before the end of 2026.&nbsp;</p>

<p><em>Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/it-s-all-in-the-family-four-decades-later-raptis-continues-to-shape-the-gold-coast-skyline">It’s all in the family: Four decades later, Raptis continues to shape the Gold Coast skyline</a></em></p>

<p><em>Read more: <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/raptis-secures-prime-surf-parade-site-for-next-broadbeach-apartment-development">Raptis secures prime Surf Parade site for next Broadbeach apartment development</a></em><br />
&nbsp;</p>


Gold Coast developer brings seventh Broadbeach project to market, targeting construction commencement before year end

Joel Robinson

First look: Raptis lodges plans for new 29-storey Broadbeach tower 

<p>Brisbane development veteran Kevin Seymour's Seymour Group is set to deepen its presence on one of Brisbane's most tightly held riverfront addresses, lodging revised plans for a luxury apartment development on Oxlade, just a few doors down from The Oxlade, which it completed in 2024.</p>

<p>The <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/70-72-oxlade-drive-new-farm-qld-4005">new project at 70-72 Oxlade Drive</a>, directly north of The Oxlade, will have 27 apartments across a seven-storey building&nbsp;overlooking the Brisbane River and Merthyr Park. It's a revision from a 2021-approved design.</p>

<p>Designed by bureau^proberts, the project has evolved from the previously approved 26-apartment scheme, introducing an additional penthouse level while maintaining a low-density, boutique character. The development will comprise 26 three-bedroom apartments and a single four-bedroom penthouse, supported by two basement levels with 86 car spaces and 34 bicycle spaces.</p>

<p>The architectural response is centred around two distinct building forms separated by a landscaped open-air atrium.&nbsp;"This dual composition captures and embraces Brisbane’s subtropical environment whilst breaking down built form and scale," the submission to the Brisbane City Council noted.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Seymour Group returns to Oxlade Drive with revised riverfront apartment plans in New Farm" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c12d84d0-bc11-4067-b46f-5bd2d786a34d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/new%20farm%20landscape.png?VersionId=YEPc2k5CAdh6aAPlu4uVpgZadh4MEfRd" /></p>

<p>A defining feature of the design is a deep landscaped void running through the centre of the building, creating what bureau^proberts describes as a "natural ravine" that enhances airflow, daylight penetration and resident amenity. The design report notes that the separation of the two building volumes is intended to maximise natural light, cross-ventilation and outlook while strengthening connections to the surrounding riverfront setting.</p>

<p>Curved balcony edges, integrated planting and extensive landscaping throughout the façade reinforce the subtropical design approach. The building's façade is softened by elevated gardens and planter beds, creating a green edge that complements the established landscape character of Oxlade Drive and neighbouring Merthyr Park.</p>

<p>New Farm has become one of Brisbane's most sought-after suburbs for developers delivering premium downsizer-focused apartments.</p>

<p>GRAYA has been particularly active in the precinct, completing both Chalk and York in recent years, while construction of Moray House, being delivered for Spyre, is now nearing completion. Architect-turned-developer Joe Adsett recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/arcilla-new-farm-by-joe-adsett-28-maxwell-street-new-farm-qld-4005">Arcilla on Maxwell Street</a>, an exclusive collection of just nine apartments.</p>


First look: Seymour Group returns to New Farm's Oxlade Drive with riverfront apartment plans

<p>A new residential tower will be the first piece of a broader mixed-use precinct set to reshape a prominent Newcastle West site, with local developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gwh">GWH</a> bringing its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/cambridge-quarter-newcastle-west-12-denison-street-newcastle-west-nsw-2302">Cambridge Quarter</a> vision to market.</p>

<p>The first release, Tempo, will introduce 87 apartments across a 24-storey tower, marking Stage 1 of the residential component of a larger urban regeneration project planned for the western end of Newcastle's city centre, encompassing the former Cambridge Hotel site.</p>

<p>Positioned on Denison Street, Tempo has been designed as the inaugural building within Cambridge Quarter, a precinct that will ultimately combine apartments, retail activation and revitalised public spaces including the revamping of the Cambridge Hotel.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135876 project_image_fid=368853]</p>

<p>The tower will comprise a mix of one, two and three-bedroom apartments, including layouts with multipurpose rooms, catering to a broad cross-section of owner-occupiers. Apartment sizes range from around 60 sqm to 192 sqm, with a number of residences oriented to capture views across Newcastle Harbour, the city skyline and coastline.</p>

<p>GWH has emphasised liveability in the design, with open-plan layouts extending to generous balconies and terraces. Residents will have a choice of two interior palettes, while specifications include engineered stone benchtops, SMEG appliances, full-height bathroom tiling and secure building access. Premium upgrade packages will also be available.</p>

<p>Multiple rooftop resident retreats will provide communal outdoor space overlooking the harbour and city, offering an elevated amenity layer above the activity of the precinct below.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135876 project_image_fid=368851]</p>

<p>The broader Cambridge Quarter vision extends beyond the residential tower itself. Ground-level retail activation and landscaped public areas are planned throughout the precinct, creating a walkable neighbourhood environment connected to the surrounding renewal of Newcastle West. The Cambridge Hotel is also earmarked for future redevelopment into a family-friendly hospitality venue integrated with the new precinct.</p>

<p>The project is strategically positioned within walking distance of Newcastle Interchange, providing access to light rail, regional rail services and direct connections to Sydney. Residents will also be close to Honeysuckle, Newcastle Harbour and the city's beaches and coastal walkways.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135876 project_image_fid=368852]</p>

<p>For GWH, Cambridge Quarter represents one of its most significant Newcastle developments to date. The locally based developer, which has operated in the Hunter region since 1995, describes the project as a new chapter in the ongoing transformation of Newcastle West.</p>

<p>GWH Executive Director Jonathan Craig said the project had been shaped by a focus on creating lasting community connections.</p>

<p>"We take pride in creating places that last. Spaces where people feel connected, comfortable and a genuine sense of belonging," Craig said.</p>

<p>"Cambridge Quarter is something we are truly proud of, a place shaped by local knowledge, built with care and designed to be part of Newcastle's next chapter."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135876]</p>


GWH unveils first release at landmark Cambridge Quarter precinct in Newcastle West

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/ss-projects">S&amp;S Projects</a>,&nbsp;Rainbow Bay's busiest developer,&nbsp;has officially lodged plans for the largest development in its booming local portfolio, seeking approval for a further 88 apartments on Boundary Street.</p>

<p>The proposal&nbsp;at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/209-213-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">209–213 Boundary Street, Coolangatta</a>,&nbsp;marks the next chapter in the developer's transformation of the southern Gold Coast beachside precinct. It will be its fifth in the area, having already delivered Flow, Awaken and Esprit, while construction continues on the 38-apartment Radia. The new project would rise 57 metres above a consolidated 1,518 sqm site, on the same street as Radia and Esprit.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cottee-parker-architects">Cottee Parker</a>, the proposed development comprises 88 two and three-bedroom apartments across a contemporary podium-and-tower form that integrates extensive landscaping from street level through to the rooftop.</p>

<p>The tower would be delivered above a basement and multi-level podium accommodating resident and visitor parking, with the residential component commencing from level three. The design incorporates cascading planting throughout the façade, landscaped podium edges, and deep planting zones along the Boundary Street frontage.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: S&amp;S Projects lodges plans for 88-apartment wellness tower at Coolangatta's Boundary Street" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="677e6615-b5c0-4b6c-b4f9-efb14fcde1a6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/ss%20da%20pers.png?VersionId=YOnPKQm7IFXv0M5H326djEpxk80500Hi" /></p>

<p>A key feature of the development is its expansive rooftop wellness and recreation precinct. Plans reveal a resort-style pool deck, gymnasium, sauna, steam room, hot and cold plunge pools, rooftop terraces, barbecue areas and landscaped relaxation spaces positioned to capture views across the southern Gold Coast coastline.</p>

<p>The rooftop wellness focus builds on the vision S&amp;S Projects first outlined when it acquired the site for $20.25 million last year.</p>

<p>"We are taking every advantage to create a truly unique rooftop wellness experience with a natural feel for residents, offering stone features throughout and an underlying theme that emulates a botanical garden," S&amp;S Projects founder and director Paul Gedoun said at the time.</p>

<p>The proposal seeks a 57-metre building height, representing a 50 per cent uplift on the site's mapped 38-metre height limit. Planning documents argue the additional height is consistent with recently approved and emerging towers in the immediate Boundary Street and Rainbow Bay precinct.</p>

<p>Urbis, acting as planning consultant, said the development would provide "88 dwellings, comprising a mix of two and three-bedroom apartments, contributing to housing choice and supply within an established medium to high-rise coastal urban neighbourhood."</p>

<p>The scheme has undergone extensive pre-lodgement consultation with the City of Gold Coast, with the design refined following feedback relating to architectural expression, landscaping, traffic access and podium treatment.</p>

<p><img alt="S&amp;S" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0a2d70fd-62ac-4b83-97c6-b798fc1243dd" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-05%20at%209.16.31%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=yHmghUwKM3IVGpBktQU1mE.0Lpf3WimG" /></p>

<p>The architectural team is led by Brisbane-based Cottee Parker, one of Australia's most active residential design studios, with landscape architecture by Dunn + Moran. The consultant team also includes ADG Engineers, Windtech and Acoustic Works.</p>

<p>S&amp;S Projects has become one of the most influential private developers operating on the southern Gold Coast. Since entering Rainbow Bay in 2022, the company has assembled a portfolio exceeding $1 billion in end value, establishing itself as a key player in the area's evolution into a premium apartment destination. Pezet Matheson will again handle the sales for S&amp;S.</p>

<p>Coolangatta is entering another wave of apartment development, following the delivery of several prominent residential projects in recent years.</p>

<p>John Kearney's Immerse Projects will launch&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/kaiya-kirra-beach-5-haig-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Kaiya on Haig Street</a>&nbsp;soon, meanwhile, Palm Beach-based Sherpa Property Group is preparing to bring its debut Coolangatta development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-viver-87-griffith-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Flourish Viveré</a>, to market later this year, subject to approvals.</p>


First look: S&S Projects proposes 88-apartment wellness tower at Coolangatta's Boundary Street

<p>A landmark former orphanage site in Surrey Hills could be transformed into a new residential community under plans lodged by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/antipodean-land-developments">Antipodean Land Developments</a> that would deliver 76 apartments and townhouses while restoring some of the suburb's most significant heritage buildings.</p>

<p>The burgeoninng Melbourne-based developer has submitted plans for the 9,158 sqm site at 1 Kent Road and 24 Durham Road, home to the former St Joseph's Home for Destitute Children, a historic institutional complex dating back to the late 19th century. The proposal seeks to adaptively reuse several heritage buildings while introducing two new four-storey residential buildings set within extensive landscaped grounds.</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/woods-bagot">Woods Bagot</a> and Kerstin Thompson Architects, the project has been conceived as a contemporary residential village embedded within a restored heritage precinct. The development team describes the design approach as "The Village in the Garden," with new buildings positioned among mature landscaping by OCULUS and significant heritage structures.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="44ec8c1b-c0b6-44ae-859e-5811b3e6a023" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Untitled%20design%20%281%29.png?VersionId=p.p1_KFh4iQoV4nisdnPfQBAsWNi7m79" /></p>

<p>The proposal would deliver 76 dwellings comprising a mix of apartments and duplex-style residences, significantly increasing housing supply on one of the largest privately held residential landholdings in Surrey Hills. The development includes 127 car spaces, 24 bicycle spaces and more than 1,000 sqm of communal amenity, with the existing chapel building earmarked for conversion into resident facilities.</p>

<p>According to the planning submission, the project centres on the restoration and adaptive reuse of the site's most significant heritage assets, including the original c.1889 St Joseph's building, the chapel designed by architect Augustus Andrew Fritsch, and the historic brick perimeter walls and entry gates. The proposal also incorporates the retention of other contributory buildings including the former infirmary and school building.</p>

<p>Tract Consultants, in the planning report accompanying the application, said the scheme had been shaped through extensive heritage analysis and design development.</p>

<p>"The shared vision for the Site by the project team has culminated in a scheme which successfully breathes life back into a historic site while delivering upon the objectives of Victoria's Housing Statement in a carefully curated and contextually responsive manner."</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7263b7d8-95ea-400f-9531-6ca7d22c3c33" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Untitled%20design%20%282%29.png?VersionId=4cR1tiWOsDpgxEOwZi5vVFcyvvOsYkIE" /></p>

<p>The proposal is being assessed under Victoria's Significant Residential Development with Affordable Housing pathway. As part of the application, three per cent of the project's residential development cost would be contributed to the Social Housing Growth Fund. The development would also provide a diverse mix of one, two and three-bedroom residences targeting a broader range of buyers than typically found in Surrey Hills' detached housing market.</p>

<p>Sustainability initiatives include an anticipated 66 per cent BESS score, natural cross-ventilation to 80 per cent of apartments, 28 per cent deep soil landscaping and a canopy cover outcome exceeding local planning requirements. The proposal also sets aside more than 1,083 sqm for communal indoor and outdoor resident amenity spaces.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="33fad46f-fe26-4d0a-acfd-6b776e1c6a3d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Untitled%20design.png?VersionId=D9F6WVSyYCtGvSUmith35LRp6R7PQkw_" /></p>

<p>Planning documents describe the property as one of the largest underutilised residential sites in Surrey Hills, arguing it presents a rare opportunity to introduce "missing middle" housing in an established inner-eastern suburb while preserving and revitalising a significant heritage precinct.</p>

<p>Antipodean Land Developments has built a reputation for design-focused residential projects across Melbourne, particularly in the medium-density sector. Previous developments include Neighbourhood in Brunswick East, delivered with Breathe Architecture, and Balfe Park Lane, designed by Kerstin Thompson Architects.</p>

<p>They've been very active in site acquisition as they build out their future development pipeline. They recently launched Thornubury House, 45 apartments above a mix of commercial, retail, and food and beverage tenancies, and have plans for a boutique project in Fitzroy and another <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/vic/antipodean-plan-apartments-for-deepdenes-missing-middle-on-whitehorse-road">"missing middle" project</a> on Deepdene's Whitehorse Road.</p>


First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills

Population

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<p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/70642/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1"></p>
<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>The Australian Census came under intense scrutiny in the wake of <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/censusfail-30048">#censusfail</a>. Parliament conducted a review, the Senate an inquiry, and some in the media questioned the entire point. </p>
<p>But cost and privacy concerns aside, population is one of the three pillarsof the economy. </p>
<p>Understanding population characteristics is vital to inform us of challenges and opportunities, and is a necessary input in other economic indicators. The quality and timely population data found in the census is not gathered through any other means. If changes need to be made, it’s in the discussion around the census.</p>
<h2>So we know who is where</h2>
<p>The census is unique in that it is a total survey of the population, covering a range of social and economic variables. At present, it is the only way such data is obtained in Australia. </p>
<p>Without the census, we wouldn’t know how many we are, who we are and where we live. This means important planning and policy issues couldn’t be addressed. The location of schools and hospitals, provision of medical facilities, funding for major infrastructure would all be done without an accurate idea of who is where. </p>
<p>In fact, local, state and federal governments rely heavily on data only available in the census. The number of children, working age population, travel to work information, occupations, housing suitability and vulnerable populations is all data only found in the census.</p>
<p>The census also allows for sub-national analyses to be performed, particularly legislated population estimates and projections. These estimates form the basis of economic indicators such as labour force statistics and gross domestic product per capita.</p>
<p>The estimates and projections also highlight inequalities within society, and provide opportunities for policy responses and development at a regional level.</p>
<p>But the purpose of taking a census goes beyond informing resource allocation, taxation and electoral representation. </p>
<p>The statistical benchmarks used in surveys and studies, research and analysis, and, most importantly, lower level aggregates and groups of interest can only be informed by census data. Low level aggregates allow identification of need. Identification of areas with high proportions of young people who cannot access employment or education can provide much insight into barriers to economic participation.</p>
<p>Quality information about homelessness, minorities, and Indigenous populations is only truly obtained via a census.</p>
<h2>The data we already collect won’t do</h2>
<p>One of the arguments against the census is that we can get the same data elsewhere from the multitude of service providers that already come in contact with the public. </p>
<p>The problem is that these data collections are administrative. They’re collected for a reason and with limited scope. </p>
<p>Centrelink data is collected to provide a service. Information we provide to the tax office ensures tax compliance. Medicare doesn’t keep information about overseas nationals and people who have never had their birth registered, which is an issue in remote and Indigenous communities.</p>
<p>Australia’s large immigrant population would become a blind spot if we were to rely on the data the government already collects, as many aren’t eligible for certain government services. The data collected by Centrelink, the tax office and Medicare don’t provide sufficient scope. So far the census is the only data source that fits the bill.</p>
<h2>Some alternatives</h2>
<p>Population registers are a viable alternative to our five-yearly censuses. Finland uses a computerised system to record population data including births, deaths, marriages, migration and so on. The Netherlands, on the other hand, conducts a virtual census by pulling together digital data from a number of different sources. </p>
<p>These registers offer real-time data, but they require ongoing maintenance and verification and often exceed the cost of our census. Ironically, they also need to be checked against a census. And Germany’s experience shows population registers are not always accurate. </p>
<p>Further, major legislation changes would have to go through for Australia to be able to pool data like this. The establishment of a national population register would be costly and demand interdepartmental government coordination.</p>
<p>We could also look to the United States’ method of conducting surveys in between a 10-yearly census. This mixed methodology was suggested by the ABS in 2015 to cut costs.</p>
<p>However, limited financial upside, together with lower quality data, makes it a risky alternative for Australia. Plus we shouldn’t think of the census as an unrecoverable cost. The Office of National Statistics in the United Kingdom estimated the costs of their 2011 census were recoveredin just over a year.</p>
<h2>The future is data</h2>
<p>So how can we improve our census?</p>
<p>Online census completion will save money, improve data quality and reduce data processing time. However, online collection must be balanced to ensure disadvantaged populations aren’t excluded. The end of the census collector hasn’t arrived just yet.</p>
<p>More importantly, we must define contemporary data needs moving into the future. An informed public conversation about migration, employment, families and our changing population is much needed to gain social licence to collect and use relevant data. </p>
<p>Whether the methodology of census continues as is or we introduce an alternative method of data collection, the key going forward is the question of legitimacy. Steps must be taken to justify the need to take a census, and to assuage privacy and security concerns. Without social license we’ll see the failings of the 2016 census play out over and over again.</p>
<p>Australia’s future relies on strong evidence we can agree on. This isn’t solely the domain of researchers. We all have a stake.</p>
<p><em><span class="fn author-name">Liz Allen is p</span>ostdoctoral fellow, Centre for Aboriginal Economic Policy Research, Australian National University and author for The Conversation. She can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/liz-allen-10193" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
<p> </p>
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

In a world awash with data, is the census still relevant?

<html><body>
<p>The South West is the fastest growing region in Western Australia.</p>
<p>As the rest of the state is slowing in population growth the South West is continuing to grow and expand, according to Herron Todd White.</p>
<p>The valuation advisory firm said the region is a very desirable place to live as it "boasts amazing beaches, surf, a good climate, a relaxed lifestyle and world renowned wineries."</p>
<p>Because of these characteristics people want to live in the region, it suggested.</p>
<p>The demographics of the people moving into the locality range from young adults who love the beaches and work in hospitality, young families who want their children to experience a relaxed, outdoor upbringing and of course the baby boomers who have reached or are getting close to retirement and want to live out the golden years away from the frenetic pace of Perth.</p>
<p>"The increasing population has helped the property market," HTW noted.</p>
<p>"The Perth market has been weak for approximately 24 months and values have been declining because of a slow down in the state’s resource sector, causing significant job losses and general economic uncertainty.</p>
<p>"The South West has traditionally followed the highs and the lows of the metropolitan market, however for the first 18 months the region has been resilient and values have remained stable.</p>
<p>"It has only been in the past six months that the market has started to weaken but nowhere near the reduction in values that occurred in the Perth market.</p>
<p>"The strong population growth has been a reason for this resilience."</p>
<p>HTW noted another driver of the South West market is the tourism industry.</p>
<p>"With the Australian dollar weakening over the past couple of years we have seen significant numbers of interstate and international tourists visiting the region.</p>
<p>"These numbers have increased considerably in recent times which have also helped underpin the overall local economy.</p>
<p>"The upcoming expansion of the Busselton Airport to interstate and potentially international standard should also increase the number of tourists visiting the region.</p>
<p>"Therefore on the back of an increasing population and a strong tourism industry the South West continues to be driven forward, making the long term future of the region look promising and exciting," HTW noted.</p>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

The South West hasn't seen the slowdown of elsewhere in WA: HTW

<html><body>
<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>The Eastern seaboard markets have performed counter-cyclically to growth in wages and GDP, both of which are trending below the historical average.</p>
<p>When wages are low but growth in housing is high, the credit used to fund this growth in housing is found elsewhere.</p>
<p>Reportedly, an increased number of Australians coming into retirement have used money in a Self-Managed Super Fund (SMSF) to take out a loan for property. The new normal of low economic growth and low yields from most assets makes east-coast property an economic anomaly.</p>
<p class="Body1">Graph 3 shows the latest data from the Australian Taxation Office on SMSFs. The graph plots the number of SMSFs and the asset allocation to property, at each quarter over the last 5 years.</p>
<p><span><strong>Graph 3: Percentage of Real Estate Assets in SMSFs vs No. SMSFs</strong></span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/08/04/Graph_3.jpg" target="_blank"><span><strong>Click to enlarge</strong></span></a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/08/04/Graph_3.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><em><span>Source: ATO, SMSF Statistical Report September 2015</span></em></p>
<p>Without a longer time series, it is difficult to say whether residential property has made up an increasing percentage of retirement portfolios. However, the increase of SMSFs with a fairly consistent rate of allocation to residential real estate suggests this could be one source of growth in the Australian housing market.</p>
<p>From the March to September quarter of 2015, there was an increase of allocation to residential property from SMSFs, of 0.43 percent. This was a time when the Sydney market was coming into its peak growth rates for this cycle.</p>
<p>Interestingly, the same period saw a higher increase in the share of commercial property that composed SMSFs assets. This could be because the ATO sometimes permits the purchase of business premises for fund members to operate in. Commercial property also presents a favourable tax environment, with a capital gains tax of just 10 percent if the property is held for over 12 months.</p>
<p>These trends are important to note as they highlight the sources of demand outside of Australian wages and employment. When there are multiple sources of demand flowing into a locally supplied market, property prices could be affected by the current regulatory uncertainty around superannuation.</p>
<p>It is also important to note that the oldest baby boomers in Australia are now at retirement age. The property purchased through SMSFs will one day need to be liquidated in order to supplement pension income and address extremely high health and aged care costs. If a large number of stock is to be liquidated at once, this could erode some value in the properties owned by retirees, unless offset by an increased population.</p>
<p>Eliza Owen, is market analyst for Onthehouse.com.au and can be contacted <a href="https://www.onthehouse.com.au/" target="_blank">here</a>.</p>
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Housing and an ageing population: Eliza Owen

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<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">In case it wasn't already obvious from reading this blog, I absolutely love analysing data flows, and I particularly love it when the numbers "just work"!</span></p>
<p>Immigration and population growth is a great case in point.</p>
<p>There was a huge surge in immigration and population growth to more than 450,000 per annum through the mining boom, which naturally slowed as the peak was passed and unemployment began to rise.</p>
<p>I've been hinting on this blog for a while that population growth probably bottomed out in 2015 and by now is probably rising again, though I haven't had any hard data to back that up just yet.</p>
<p>This is partly because a better performing Australian economy is now attracting more migrants - annual employment growth of about +2.3 per cent has been far outpacing population growth of about +1.3 per cent, helping the unemployment rate to cascade into a 28 month downtrend.</p>
<p>And secondly because, largely unrecognised by commentary, a relaxation of visa rules will see tens of thousands of international students acquire permanent residency through the "back door" of higher education.</p>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Immigration rises again</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>There was a significant +14 per cent year-on-year jump in the number of permanent and long term arrivals in February to 91,590, while the number of permanent and long term departues wasn't much changed at +31,700, for a net monthly inflow of just under 60,000.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>I wouldn't read too much into one month of figures, granted, but mapping the data on a rolling annual basis showed a rise in net immigration for the first time in two years. </div>
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<img src="/images/2016/04/8/A3.jpg" alt=""><br><br><div>The share of settlers from Asia over the year to February continued to increase to its highest ever level at +58.1 per cent, largely at the expense of arrivals from the United Kingdom and New Zealand. </div>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Record short term arrivals help rebalancing</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The lower dollar is very slowly but surely helping the rebalancing of the economy, with a record 7.55 million short term arrivals in the year to February.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Australia is a wealthy nation when measured in per capita terms, yet provided the dollar stays low enough for long enough evenutally there could even come a time when short term arrivals match the number of our own overseas trips, as more Aussies opt to holiday at home, thereby boosting the economy. In the words of British Rail, "we're getting there".</div>
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<div>The annual number of short term arrivals from China, Hong Kong &amp; Taiwan (1.44 million) is poised to eclipse those from New Zealand &amp; Oceania imminently (1.49 million). </div>
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<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Education arrivals going vert!</span></strong><br><br><div>With the share of overseas born Aussies now at a 120 year high, more than 2 million persons per annum are venturing Down Under to visit friends and relatives, which in turn reinforces the strength in the number of visitors from Asia. </div>
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<div>The most significant demographic shift of all has been the near-exponential surge in education arrivals, which bolted to another new record high of 95,100 in February, taking the annual total past half a million for the first time on record. </div>
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<br><div class="separator">This is extremely significant, as in the years ahead tens of thousands of these international students will become permanent residents, largely in the largest capital cities.</div>
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<div class="separator"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Well, it has certainly been a while coming, but February saw the first rebound in immigration in a couple of years.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In truth, population growth never really slowed that much in the largest capital cities anyway - still chugging along at a thunderous 80,000 to 90,000 per annum - the slowdown was more of a resources and a regional thing. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In any case from observing the ABS data and from mapping out official government forecasts it looks as though population growth probably bottomed out at around 310,000 per annum, and is set to increase to about 340,000 in 2016, and to beyond 400,000 per annum before the end of the decade.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Perhaps just as relevantly, it is important to note that the population growth is becoming increasingly centralised and focussed on a handful of capital cities, a trend which will only accelerate thanks to Asian and international student migration. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Population growth to rebound in 2016: Pete Wargent

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<p>In 2014/15, Camden in south-west Sydney recorded the fastest population <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">growth rates for local government areas, up by over 5,000 people or 7.6 percent. The Melbourne City LGA </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">grew by over 6,800 people or 5.6 percent in 2014/15.</span></p>
<p>Regional migration: In 2014/15, Moreton Bay in Queensland recorded the biggest inflow of people (5,598) <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">while Brisbane recorded the biggest outflow of people (4,597).</span></p>
<p>Regional population: Melbourne was the fastest growing capital city in 2014/15 with population growing by <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">91,600 people or 2.1 percent.</span></p>
<p>Overseas Migration: Latest data shows that 28.2 percent of Australians were born overseas – the highest <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">proportion for over 120 years.</span></p>
<p>The demographic data have implications for all businesses, especially those located in rural and regional areas which are looking to <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">target the fastest growing regions.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/03/30/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-30%20at%203.09.41%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/03/30/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-30%20at%203.09.41%20PM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>What does it all mean?</p>
<p>For any business, it’s important to track your catchment <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">area – determine whether population is advancing or </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">declining as well as determining whether there are other </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">regions that represent greater opportunities.</span></p>
<p>The Bureau of Statistics provides population estimates at <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">different levels, allowing businesses to cut and dice figures </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">a number of different ways.</span></p>
<p>What stands out is the outflow of people from Western <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Australian mining areas in the last financial year and the </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">big population gains in the new housing areas of Victoria, </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">and to a lesser extent, NSW.</span></p>
<p>A number of Queensland areas recorded significant <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">inflows of people last financial year, notably the Gold </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Coast, with net migration the largest in eight years. The </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Sunshine Coast also recorded notable inflows of people for </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">the second year.</span></p>
<p>Queensland is notable for the ‘churn’ factor – the high level <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">of people arriving and departing from regions each year </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">with Brisbane highest from the Gold Coast.</span></p>
<p>It is clear that there are tremendous opportunities for <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">businesses with a raft of regions recording solid population </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">growth rates. The number of people in Lane Cove in</span></p>
<p>Sydney’s north has lifted sharply over the past two year <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">largely on apartment demand than free-standing homes.</span></p>
<p>What do the figures show?</p>
<p>Overseas Migration 2014/15</p>
<p>The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">estimates that net overseas migration eased from </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">186,365 to 168,183 in the 2014/15 financial year.</span></p>
<p>All states and territories recorded a net inflow of <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">migrants in 2014/15 with NSW (39.3 percent) and </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Victoria (32.1 percent) dominating the share of net </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">migrants coming to Australia.</span></p>
<p>As at June 2015, 28.2 percent of all Australians <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">were born overseas, up from 28.1 percent in </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">2014 and the highest share since 1894.</span></p>
<p>The ABS is only able to determine why migrants <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">came to Australia with a lag, that is “</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">An individual's </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">actual travel behaviour and associated </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">characteristics, including visa type, are only </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">available from final NOM data, as these can only </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">be accurately determined at the end of the 16 </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">month reference period following a traveller's initial </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">border crossing.”</span></p>
<p>In 2013/14, 67 percent of net migration to <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Australia was by people on temporary visas, </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">notably higher education (28.3 percent), ‘visitor’ </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">(17.7 percent and ‘working holiday’ (14.7 percent).</span></p>
<p>Regional Migration 2014/15</p>
<p>In 2014/15, 339,000 people moved interstate, down 2.9 per cent (10,190 people) on the previous year. Only <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Victoria (+10,200) and Queensland (+6,417) recorded a positive net increase of people by way of interstate </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">migration.</span></p>
<p>The region with the biggest net inflow of people was the Moreton Bay local government area in Queensland with <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">almost 5,600 moving into the region. Next highest was Wyndham in Victoria (up 4,760), Sunshine Coast in </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Queensland (up 4,732) and Gold Coast (up 4,492).</span></p>
<p>The region with the biggest net outflow of people was Brisbane (down 4,597).</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/03/30/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-30%20at%203.15.50%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/03/30/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-30%20at%203.15.50%20PM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Regional population 2014/15</p>
<p>In 2014/15, Camden in south-west Sydney recorded the fastest population growth rates for local government <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">areas, up by 5,112 people or 7.6 percent. Camden’s population growth has accelerated over the past five years.</span></p>
<p>Of the 563 local government areas, 336 regions recorded positive population growth in the year to June 2015.</p>
<p>Western Australia dominated the regions recording the biggest declines in population, recording all of the 17 <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">biggest percentage falls.</span></p>
<p>The ABS has provided further observations on population:</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/03/30/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-30%20at%203.17.26%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/03/30/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-30%20at%203.17.26%20PM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>“The combined population of Greater Capital Cities increased by 263,100 people (1.7 percent) between 30 <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">June 2014 and 30 June 2015, accounting for 83 percent of the country's total population growth.</span></p>
<p>Melbourne had the largest growth of all Greater Capital Cities (up by 91,600 people), followed by Sydney <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">(83,300), Brisbane (35,200) and Perth (31,100).</span></p>
<p>Melbourne also had the fastest growth (up by 2.1 percent), ahead of Darwin (1.9 percent) and Sydney (1.7 <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">percent).</span></p>
<p>The top four Statistical Areas Level 2 (SA2s) with the largest population growth in Australia were outer <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">suburbs of Greater Melbourne.</span></p>
<p>The SA2 of ACT - South West had the fastest growth (up 127 percent), followed by Cranbourne East in <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Greater Melbourne (32 percent).</span></p>
<p>Wyndham in Melbourne's west had the highest net migration gain of all Statistical Areas Level 3 (SA3s) in <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Australia in 2014-15 (4,900 people). It was one of a number of SA3s in Melbourne's outer suburban fringe to h</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">ave comparatively high net migration growth. These included Whittlesea - Wallan (4,100), Casey - South </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">(4,000) and Melton - Bacchus Marsh (3,300) in Melbourne's north-east, south-east and west respectively.</span></p>
<p>The SA3s with the highest net losses in 2014-15 were Canterbury (-3,300 people) in Sydney's inner southwest, <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Strathfield - Burwood - Ashfield and Fairfield (both -3,100) in Sydney's inner-west and south-west </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">respectively, and Monash (-2,600) in Melbourne's south-east.”</span></p>
<p>What is the importance of the economic data?</p>
<p>The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) provides detailed annual population estimates, including data on <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">migration and population changes in regional areas.</span></p>
<p>What are the implications?</p>
<p>Population growth has slowed at a broad, Australia-wide level, but there are marked variations beneath the <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">surface. As would be expected, the ending of the mining construction boom has led to an outflow of people from a </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">raft of Western Australian regions. Population growth is fastest in Victoria and there remains high numbers of </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Aussies, and newly-arrived, migrants, trying out the lifestyle in Queensland. Good social infrastructure will be </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">important if Queensland regions are successful in retaining the new arrivals.</span></p>
<p>The ABS has continued to highlight net migration losses in Sydney from Canterbury, Strathfield, Burwood, <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Ashfield and Fairfield. In Melbourne there continue to be outflows of people from Dandenong and Monash in the </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">south-east but inflows to the north-east, south-east and western suburbs of Melbourne.</span></p>
<p>The latest population estimates are of importance to private and public sector businesses alike whether it is the <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">location of stores or planning of transport and social infrastructure. Poor transport and infrastructure could lead to </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">population outflows affecting business revenues and council rates.</span></p>
<p> A good economy is important for holding onto people. Fewer people left NSW in the last financial year, basically <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">because job opportunities had improved. And the number of people leaving NSW was sharply lower than over the </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">previous decade despite weaker housing affordability.</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> <em>Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>.</em></span></p>
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Winners and losers on population growth: CommSec's Craig James

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<p>P<span style="line-height: 1.3em;">opulation growth is slowing as overseas migration winds down, </span>according<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span>to new<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> figures </span>released<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> by CoreLogic RP Data.</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The August 2015 </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Housing Market and Economic Update noted a 1.4% annual change in population.</span></p>
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Population growth slowing, overseas migration winds down: CoreLogic RP Data

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<span style="line-height: 1.3em;">After a bit of pause in the ABS </span><a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/3401.0Main+Features1Apr%202015?OpenDocument" target="_blank" style="line-height: 1.3em;">Overseas Arrivals and Departures</a><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> survey we have had no fewer than </span><strong style="line-height: 1.3em;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">seven</span></strong><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> such releases since May...and there's yet another in the post in the next couple of days too!</span>
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<div> </div>
<div>The slowdown in Australia's population growth to +330,000 in 2014 was straightforward enough to predict for those who were paying attention - with Sydney and Melbourne leading the population growth charts - and regular readers will be well across the drivers of the downtrend.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>While most commentary is finally just about latching on to last year's story, I'm now getting more interested in trying to anticipate the eventual rebound - the causes thereof, and the likely timing.<br><br>Let's have a look at a four trends to watch, and particularly the role of exchange rates thereon.</div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">1 - Net long term migration</span></strong><br><br><div>Rolling annual net long term migration slowed considerably from around 411,000 in January 2013 to just above 300,000 by April 2015.</div>
<div> </div>
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<br><div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-CsKHLxNp92E/VZhovUp0ezI/AAAAAAAAWog/kgkTP1sMsjg/s1600/Arr1.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-CsKHLxNp92E/VZhovUp0ezI/AAAAAAAAWog/kgkTP1sMsjg/s640/Arr1.jpg" width="640" height="280"></a></div>
<br><div><span>The downtrend is still in place but appears to be slowing. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>In any case, following some analysis of<span> previous years' data the ABS itself <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2015/06/boomerang-departures-to-drive" target="_blank">cast doubts</a> on the relevance of the permanent departures statistics.</span></span></div>
<span><span><br></span></span><span><span>The ABS research implied that while ostensibly more than 380,000 Australians left the country on a </span></span><span><span>long term or "permanent" basis over the past 12 months, a high proportion of them are likely return home within just a year. </span></span><span>Observed the ABS:</span><br><div><span> </span></div>
<div>
<span><em>"Analysis shows that the majority of those with an intention of permanently departing, return to Australia within the following year. </em></span><em><span><span>For example, in the calendar year 2011, out of the 84,240 Australian residents who stated they were departing permanently, only 15,890 spent 12 months or more overseas</span><span>."</span></span></em>
</div>
<br><div>Whether or not this proves to be true in the future is less clear, but it does serve as a timely reminder that all is often not as it seems when it comes to demographic trends.</div>
<br><div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">2 - Record short term arrivals</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>As the Aussie dollar has declined from around 110 US cents close to just 75 cents, the domestic economy is set to benefit from record high short term arrivals, now tracking at well over 7 million in the year to April 2015.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The chart below suggests that we might expect trends in short term arrivals and departures to dovetail with respect to changes in the strength or otherwise of our currency.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>With the awesome strength of the Aussie dollar through the mining investment boom it was no surprise to see short term departures exploding higher.<br><br>
</div>
<div>I even took full advantage of this myself to undertake a rather extravagant world cruise in 2011, something which seems somewhat less appealing now, at least from a cost perspective!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Now that the dollar has depreciated it is all but inevitable that this rampant trend towards overseas travel will reverse and comparatively fewer Australians will choose to travel and holiday overseas.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-aeVfFBTDcNc/VZhoxu3OR4I/AAAAAAAAWo0/POJh6u2LYwI/s1600/arr4.jpg">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<br><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-aeVfFBTDcNc/VZhoxu3OR4I/AAAAAAAAWo0/POJh6u2LYwI/s1600/arr4.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-aeVfFBTDcNc/VZhoxu3OR4I/AAAAAAAAWo0/POJh6u2LYwI/s640/arr4.jpg" width="640" height="290"></a><br><br>In fact, although the above chart doesn't yet appear to suggest so, this has already begun to happen, which is a net positive for the domestic economy.<br><br><div>The below chart records the ratio of short term departures to short term arrivals by month, and reveals that the ratio has steadily fallen to sit at its lowest level since the first quarter of calendar year 2011.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-d6rsK8_HQD0/VZhow5WJAMI/AAAAAAAAWoo/hGaZ0NeT8ys/s1600/Arr8.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<br><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-d6rsK8_HQD0/VZhow5WJAMI/AAAAAAAAWoo/hGaZ0NeT8ys/s1600/Arr8.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-d6rsK8_HQD0/VZhow5WJAMI/AAAAAAAAWoo/hGaZ0NeT8ys/s640/Arr8.jpg" width="640" height="274"></a><br><br>The Aussie dollar likely has further to fall, and in turn so too does this ratio.<br><br><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>3 - Compositional shift of arrivals</strong></span><br><br>When people observe housing market trends and opine that the role of Chinese investment might be a passing fad, they might want to think again.<br><div> </div>
<div>Credit Suisse projects that Chinese investors will drop some $60 billion into Australia's housing markets over the five years to 2020, more than double the estimated $28 million in the preceding five years. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Meanwhile the number of Chinese USD millionaires is expected to rise at 14% per annum (Chinese stock market corrections notwithstanding!) thereby doubling to 2.6 million by the end of the decade.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>While there must be an element of guesswork and extrapolation involved here, I've seen nothing in the housing market activity which causes me to cast doubt on the estimates.</div>
<br><div>Comfortably the most significant change in short term visitors to Australia has been the explosion in Chinese short term arrivals since the turn of the century.</div>
<br><div>In February 2015, the month which incorporated Chinese New Year, an astonishing 198,700 visitors came to Australia from China, Hong Kong and Taiwan combined.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-FriL70hzVFg/VZjW4f53AUI/AAAAAAAAWp8/RZosv0cwvJw/s1600/Chindia.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a><br><br><div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-FriL70hzVFg/VZjW4f53AUI/AAAAAAAAWp8/RZosv0cwvJw/s1600/Chindia.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-FriL70hzVFg/VZjW4f53AUI/AAAAAAAAWp8/RZosv0cwvJw/s640/Chindia.jpg" width="640" height="276"></a></div>
</div>
<span>Interestingly the "original" data for the three months to April also revealed unprecedented numbers of Indian short term arrivals at 66,500, while the Americans are also enjoying the shifts in the exchange rate with rolling annual number of short term visitors rising to a record 563,800.</span><br><div class="separator"> </div>
<br><div>We can expect that eventually some of these trends will flow through to Australia's permanent settler figures.</div>
<br><div>While the number of Brits settling is threatening to become immaterial - at just 590 settlers in April, less than a quarter of the levels seen in 2008 - and permanent New Zealander immigrants are trending sharply down, Indian and Chinese settlers are rapidly tracking at or close to record levels.<br><br>
</div>
<div><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-f8touQwzFSo/VZhowb-0JsI/AAAAAAAAWos/5pVKyqyQIbY/s1600/Arr6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-f8touQwzFSo/VZhowb-0JsI/AAAAAAAAWos/5pVKyqyQIbY/s1600/Arr6.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-f8touQwzFSo/VZhowb-0JsI/AAAAAAAAWos/5pVKyqyQIbY/s640/Arr6.jpg" width="640" height="278"></a><br><div> </div>
<div>Indeed, there were 73,370 settlers hailing from Asia in the year to April 2015 as compared to fewer than 15,000 from Europe.</div>
<br>It's a huge shift in composition that is underway.<br><div class="separator"> </div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">4 - Record education enrolments in Q1 2015</span></strong><br><br><div>One other unfolding trend to watch which is also tied to the depreciation of the currency is the record number of foreign student enrolments seen in the first quarter of 2015.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The ABS series shows that the rolling annual number of short term arrivals into Australia in the year to April for education has blasted to its highest ever level at 421,400.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-rfQpqET2No8/VZhovXWXDPI/AAAAAAAAWoc/7GjRMo7Gbjo/s1600/Arr5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-rfQpqET2No8/VZhovXWXDPI/AAAAAAAAWoc/7GjRMo7Gbjo/s1600/Arr5.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-rfQpqET2No8/VZhovXWXDPI/AAAAAAAAWoc/7GjRMo7Gbjo/s640/Arr5.jpg" width="640" height="280"></a></div>
<br><div>This is another demographic trend which is heavily skewed towards Asian participants, and Chinese students in particular, and one we can expect to keep on growing.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Watch the dollar driven demographic dispositions: Pete Wargent

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<div>Population growth in Australia has slowed from its recent peak of a shade above 405,000 per annum in September 2013 back to around 354,600 per annum on the latest figures.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This headline number will have some way to fall yet, with the December 2014 figures yet to be reported.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, a rebound is in the post in time.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In the summer month of January 2015, traditionally a strong month for long term arrivals, the <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/3401.0/" target="_blank"><em>Australian Bureau of Statistics</em> figures</a> recorded a bounce from 52,160 to 76,310, although the January result is still 9 per cent lower than one year ago.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/06/09/wargent1.jpg" alt="" width="751" height="366"></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>On the departures side, however, long term and permanent departures also declined in January from 46,740 to 42,100, which notably is a below<strong> </strong>figure than the prior year comparative.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>On a rolling annual basis net long term migration of 318,560 sits some 22 per cent below the most recent peak of January 2013.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/06/09/wargent2.jpg" alt="" width="673" height="324"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>When it comes to the long term and permanent departures data, stated intentions when ticking boxes on forms are one thing, but today's reality is quite another.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Boomerang departures are one of the reasons that our capital cities appear so crowded, despite the apparently slowing population growth data.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>On the one hand we now have record high short term arrivals at close to 7 million per annum.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And meanwhile most of those who claim to be migrating overseas permanently have "pulled a boomerang" within a year of leaving.</div>
<br><div>
<a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/3401.0Main%20Features2Jan%202015?opendocument&amp;tabname=Summary&amp;prodno=3401.0&amp;issue=Jan%202015&amp;num=&amp;view=" target="_blank">Analysis</a> of prior years' data from the <em>Australian Bureau of Statistics</em> reveals that while ostensibly more than 380,000 Australians left the country on a long term or "permanent" basis over the past 12 months, more than 80 per cent of them are likely return home within just a year!</div>
<br><div><span><span><em>"Analysis shows that the majority of those with an intention of permanently departing, return to Australia within the following year. </em></span></span></div>
<div><span><span><em> </em></span></span></div>
<div><span><span><em>For example, in the calendar year 2011, out of the 84,240 Australian residents who stated they were departing permanently, only 15,890 spent 12 months or more overseas."</em></span></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div>So much for the "long term-ness" of the long term departures, if you'll kindly pardon my dreadful English.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Perhaps those pastures further afield aren't as greener-er as what people think they are, and that's why they done that.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>OK I'm getting rather grammatically bogged down here, so let's move on to look at...</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Record high visitors (the delayed Oprah effect)</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Shifting seamlessly along to short term arrivals we can see that visitors to Australia have sprinted to their highest level on record at more than 6.9 million.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/06/09/wargent3.jpg" alt="" width="829" height="390"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>The idea that Kiwis are flocking home to rediscover the beauty of their homeland is an appealing narrative, but also one that has been overplayed.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In fact, record numbers of New Zealanders arrived in Australia in the past year on a "short term" basis at close to 1.25 million.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There has also been a notable surge in the number of American visitors to Australia to a record 555,300 on a rolling annual basis.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Oprah Winfrey said it'd happen, and it seems she was right.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Although the detailed figures do show a spike relating to her December 2010 visit - from memory she brought along a few hundred whooping guests, and even greater numbers of security guards and filming crew - it is only in the past 12 months that American visitor numbers have really picked up strongly.<br><br>Naturally the decline of the Aussie dollar towards the mid 70 cent range against the greenback is a big driver here. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/06/09/wargent4.jpg" alt="" width="893" height="434"></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>And the below mega-trend, I've documented here often previously.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/06/09/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-09%20at%209.45.00%20AM.png" alt="" width="744" height="341"></span></div>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<span>Expect more of the same based upon what I've seen around the traps in 2015.</span><br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Asian settlers </span></strong><br><br><div>In terms of settlers in Australia the trend has clearly been away from Brits and Kiwis since the financial crisis and towards Chinese and Indians.<br><br>
</div>
<div>However, there was a reasonable rebound in the number of New Zealander settlers in January so this particular downtrend may have run its course for now, although Kiwi settler numbers are still clearly down by 10 per cent or so from a year ago.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Poms clearly are evidently still opting to stay at home, though.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/06/09/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-09%20at%209.46.16%20AM.png" alt="" width="817" height="411"></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>The last 12 months has seen some 71,310 settlers from Asia, another mega-trend that shows no real sign of abating.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/06/09/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-09%20at%209.47.21%20AM.png" alt="" width="828" height="418"></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div id="post-body-3022590133789834441" class="post-body entry-content">
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The rolling long term net migration figures imply that Australian population growth will sink back towards the low 300,000s range over the near term.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, a complex range of factors will combine to drive a rebound in due course. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Not least of these trends is that most who claim to be slinging their hooks for good don't even make it past year one before "pulling a boomerang".</div>
<div> </div>
</div>
<div class="post-footer">
<em><span>PETE WARGENT</span> is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br><p><em>His book '<a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>' is out now.</em></p>
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Boomerang departures drive population growth rebound: Pete Wargent

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<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Someone asked me last week if I am "bullish on property?".</span></p>
<p>It's a bit of wild concept if you think about it.</p>
<p>At the last count there are around 9,300,700 dwellings in Australia, and the vast majority of them I wouldn't invest in.</p>
<p>There are a huge number of areas that I would consider to be extremely risky, in fact, including a whole range of mining towns and regional centres, and even some larger cities with weak population growth and job markets.</p>
<p>My position always been that if you can demonstrate a certain level of skill and invest in the right suburbs and property types you can make a lot of money, but I wouldn't say that makes me bullish on housing <em>per se</em>.</p>
<p>In Britain, London and its surrounds has been the only area worthy of investing for my money over all the years.</p>
<p>In Australia, I generally stick to certain suburbs in Sydney. </p>
<p>In 2007, that meant a number of key suburbs in the inner west, and even then only certain types of property. </p>
<p>Last year we were buying on the lower north shore, but again only in a handful of suburbs and certain types of property. </p>
<p>At the weekend, the lower north recorded another blistering auction clearance rate of 92%. </p>
<p>I wouldn't get too bogged down in the weekly conspiracy theories about under-reporting: just look at the actual results <a href="https://domainmastheads.homepriceguide.com.au/saturday_auction_results/Sydney.pdf" target="_blank">reported</a> in suburbs like Kirribilli, Wollstonecraft, Cremorne and Neutral Bay. </p>
<p>The lower north shore is now absolutely flying!</p>
<p>We expect to see Milsons Point and Waverton outperforming in 2014 too.</p>
<p>We try to avoid buying in heated markets, however, so we may leave the hordes to the auction frenzies at ever-higher prices now, and look elsewhere.</p>
<p>Next on our hit-list will include three suburbs in particular to the west and south-west, a little further out than the traditional capital growth hotspots, in order to catch the ripple effect of capital growth which is repeated in most property market cycles. </p>
<p><strong>March property prices</strong><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p>RP Data will released its <a href="/expert-insights/investing/melbourne-tops-the-list-of-best-performing-capital-cities-in-march-quarter-rp-data-rismark">property price results for the month of March</a>, which unsurprisingly will continue to report very strong gains in Australian capital cities (+2.3%) for the 10th month in a row.</p>
<p>Leading the way, of course, were Sydney (+2.8%) and Melbourne (+2.3%), although in fact gains were recorded everywhere in March.</p>
<p>Over the past 12 months, the best performing capital city has continued to be Sydney, and the worst, perhaps not surprisingly given its weak jobs market and low population growth, Adelaide.</p>
<p class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-j43vYsDmeWo/Uzjzxz9ceQI/AAAAAAAAMN4/3tun4W9-5oA/s1600/RPD111.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-j43vYsDmeWo/Uzjzxz9ceQI/AAAAAAAAMN4/3tun4W9-5oA/s1600/RPD111.jpg" width="460" height="181"></a></p>
<p><span><strong>Philosophy</strong><br></span></p>
<p><span>Like most people, my investment philosophy has changed a bit over time, but the basic principles remain the same.</span></p>
<p>About a decade and a half ago, Robert Kiyosaki wrote a book, <em>Rich Dad Poor Dad</em>, which showed a diagram something like the one below which demonstrates the difference between the typical financial profile of a salary earner (lots of expenses, lots of liabilities) and that of an investor (fewer expenses and lots of income-producing assets).</p>
<blockquote>
<p>My basic philosophy is to think of investment as being like a snowball, compounding and growing its income and capital appreciation year after year, for as long as I live.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Spending less than you earn and investing the difference was a real "aha!" or "light bulb" moment for millions of people around the globe. Kiyosaki sold 26 million copies of that book alone and went on to build a substantial business empire from this one very simple core idea.</p>
<div><img src="https://www.richdad.com/MediaLibrary/RichDad/images/blogs/rdpd-wealthy-vs-middleclass-chart.jpg" width="400" height="303"></div>
<p><em>Concept: Robert Kiyosaki</em></p>
<p>Kiyosaki's point was that investors should try to avoid getting into bad debts (credit cards, car loans, school loans etc) and instead load up the asset column with your business, real estate and stocks.</p>
<p><strong>My one simple big idea</strong></p>
<p>Like many people I've experimented with a few different approaches, including trading or buying speculative stocks. These days I have stripped back my investment philosophy to keep it as simple as humanly possible. My one simple ideas as it relates to my investment philosophy is this: </p>
<p>I want every single dollar I invest to still be going out to work for me if I live to be 110 years old. </p>
<p>That's my basic philosophy, to think of investment as being like a snowball, compounding and growing its income and capital appreciation year after year, for as long as I live.</p>
<p><strong>What to invest in?</strong><span> </span></p>
<p>So what assets to invest in to achieve that goal? </p>
<p>You can spend a lot of time analysing companies and still get it wrong. The simplest method for most average investors might be to pick out some diversified Listed Investment Companies (LICs) which have a proven track record of increasing their profits and dividends for decade after decade after decade.</p>
<p>I don't recommend individual stocks for others to invest in. You have to pick companies which suit your own risk profile. But this is the kind of chart that I look for:</p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-iZUT2PTDq2g/Uznpgh8Z4HI/AAAAAAAAMOI/AX9f8KgSmjc/s1600/MLT.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-iZUT2PTDq2g/Uznpgh8Z4HI/AAAAAAAAMOI/AX9f8KgSmjc/s1600/MLT.jpg" width="400" height="173"></a></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><em>Source: MLT Annual Report 2013</em></div>
<div class="separator"><em><span> </span></em></div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-7UCvvjPl6TU/Uzn3J6MCj2I/AAAAAAAAMPA/lWOyNZnEWAY/s1600/WHF.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-7UCvvjPl6TU/Uzn3J6MCj2I/AAAAAAAAMPA/lWOyNZnEWAY/s1600/WHF.jpg" width="400" height="236"></a></div>
<p><em>Source: WHF Annual Report 2013</em></p>
<p>If a company can achieve this type of result with its bottom line profits with its and franked dividend payments then the share price will likely take care of itself over time.  Through investing in these types of diversified companies your dollars can go to work for you from now until... forever.</p>
<p>You don't even need to know what the wires do, although of course, you can lift the cover plate and see what the inner workings are up to if you so desire.</p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-m6Ug96wmaaE/UznqPMdYIPI/AAAAAAAAMOQ/Yg_SYJCw978/s1600/BKI.jpg"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-m6Ug96wmaaE/UznqPMdYIPI/AAAAAAAAMOQ/Yg_SYJCw978/s1600/BKI.jpg" width="400" height="317"></a></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><em>Source: BKI Annual Report 2013</em></div>
<div><em><span> </span></em></div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-a8UdJKNChMo/Uzn2XPoACII/AAAAAAAAMO4/eTCnft7XLm0/s1600/ARGO.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-a8UdJKNChMo/Uzn2XPoACII/AAAAAAAAMO4/eTCnft7XLm0/s1600/ARGO.jpg" width="400" height="371"></a></div>
<p class="separator"><em>Source: ARG Annual Report 2013</em></p>
<p>Companies may in theory be perpetual but, surprisingly, many of them come and go. How much more re-assuring it is to be invested in a company which holds 100-120 top companies and trusts? Even if one of the companies held experiences a huge corporate fraud or failure, the investor should not be hurt too much. I covered in more detail why I like LICs <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2013/04/5-reasons-to-consider-lic" target="_blank">here</a>.</p>
<p><strong>Real estate</strong><span> </span></p>
<p>I apply very similar principles in property investment. I want to invest in cities which will still be thriving if I live to be 110 years old. That means that for the core of my portfolio, I tend to steer away from small regional cities or one-industry towns. </p>
<p>It's no coincidence that my company has offices in London and Sydney, by the way, for those are two cities with tremendously strong fundamentals for the long-term.</p>
<p>Knight Frank reported yesterday that London prices are up by 68% in the last five years since March 2009. How on earth, and why on earth, is that happening? </p>
<p>It's partly because of desperately inadequate construction. Parts of the market are desperately undersupplied and the activity in the market resembles a feeding frenzy at the moment.</p>
<p>It's also because in recent times, there has been a tremendous shift of funds towards residential real estate as a store of wealth, but only in certain key global cities. It's fairly obvious why prices have been growing when you consider this chart.</p>
<div><img src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/03/London%20market_0.jpg" width="400" height="322"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>If you know your history, you'll know that London has had something of a rollercoaster ride as a city.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-gLopaBB9AhA/UzntvXvbM7I/AAAAAAAAMOc/wCMOLBe16KE/s1600/LONPOP.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-gLopaBB9AhA/UzntvXvbM7I/AAAAAAAAMOc/wCMOLBe16KE/s1600/LONPOP.jpg" width="460" height="275"></a></div>
<p>Centuries ago we had wars, plagues and even a Great Fire, and from the Second World War through to 1991 the city population declined for five consecutive decades as the city de-industrialised and went through a process of slum clearance and suburbanisation. </p>
<p>Since 1991, London has been busy establishing itself as a major financial centre, and international migration combined with an economic boom has seen the population explode from 6.4 million to above 8.1 million. London's population has been increasing at twice the speed of that of the rest of the UK and is expected to surpass 9 million by the end of this decade.</p>
<p>Importantly, the population in inner London has often been expanding at the same percentage rate as that of the Greater City of London, despite the limited availability of land. I don't worry too much what the talking heads in the press consider likely to happen this year or next. I just know that over the decades, London property will continue to represent an absolute no-brainer.</p>
<p><span><strong>Sydney</strong></span></p>
<p>As a newer city, Sydney has not been through such a rollercoaster ride: the population trend is simply up, up, up and away.</p>
<p>The below is a dated population projection from the Bureau of Statistics. More recent data suggests that the estimates have been under-cooked and that Sydney's population could rise much more rapidly still than this (click chart) to <a href="https://www.afr.com/f/free/national/why_australia_needs_to_get_real_7hEC3IX0RZWitSkELPcJEI" target="_blank">around 8 million by 2050</a>, instead following the trajectory of the red line (click chart). </p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-bS0zccQITYI/Uzn49dmzSuI/AAAAAAAAMPM/WMo25KmGhDU/s1600/POPSYD.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-bS0zccQITYI/Uzn49dmzSuI/AAAAAAAAMPM/WMo25KmGhDU/s1600/POPSYD.jpg" width="460" height="245"></a></div>
<p>So much energy is diverted towards what might happen to prices in the next 12 months, but as an investor, inactivity can actually be your greatest friend. </p>
<p>As for the flow of international funds, well let's be blunt: this will have very little (if any impact) on regional centres. The impact will be felt most keenly in inner Sydney where land is scarce, and inner Melbourne.</p>
<p>Through owning properties in suburbs where the supply is fixed you can be assured that your dollars you invested in investment properties will still be out there working for you for decades and decades to come. And more comforting still, the nature of compound growth means that they gains just get better and better over time. </p>
<p><em>You can visit <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) or Pete's <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blog</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>His new book '<a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>' is out now.</em></p>
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