One of North Sydney's best-known commercial buildings could become hundreds of new homes, with insurance giant Zurich Australia lodging a State Significant Development Application (SSDA) to transform 5 Blue Street into a mixed-use residential development above North Sydney Station.

Rather than demolishing the existing building and starting again, Zurich is proposing an adaptive reuse project that would convert the landmark office building into a 15-level residential development delivering 62 apartments, 86 affordable co-living dwellings, activated retail and significant upgrades to the Blue Street Plaza.

The proposal reflects a growing trend of commercial property owners repositioning ageing office assets into residential housing as Sydney grapples with housing supply shortages and changing workplace demand.

<img alt="Zurich" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0bba7d12-06dc-4375-aad7-238c94b21ac5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-22%20at%2010.42.05%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=NJl5oLAEBDGuPmY3RnyliKODjMc8lvRh" />

Located directly above North Sydney Metro and train station, the 3,051 sqm site occupies one of the most strategically positioned parcels of land on Sydney's Lower North Shore.

Designed by fjcstudio, the proposal seeks to retain and adapt much of the existing structure while creating a contemporary residential address that better connects with the public domain surrounding North Sydney Station.

The application proposes two basement levels, ground floor retail, affordable co-living accommodation across the podium levels, and apartments above, while preserving and enhancing the publicly accessible Blue Street Plaza.

Rather than pursuing maximum apartment numbers, Zurich has opted for a housing mix heavily weighted towards larger owner-occupier residences.

The proposal includes 62 build-to-sell apartments comprising 12 one-bedroom, 19 two-bedroom, 29 three-bedroom apartments and two premium penthouses. It also incorporates 86 affordable co-living dwellings, which would be managed in perpetuity by a Community Housing Provider.

That balance between traditional apartments and affordable housing reflects the NSW Government's push to increase housing diversity around major transport infrastructure.

The proposal has been lodged concurrently with a rezoning application, with Zurich arguing the site is ideally positioned to support additional housing given its immediate proximity to public transport, employment and services.

"The proposal aims to respond to the housing challenges facing Sydney through the delivery of diverse housing types in a highly accessible location," the design report by fjcstudio states. It also seeks to improve pedestrian amenity through upgrades to Blue Street Plaza while creating a high-performing residential building that responds to the surrounding context.

<img alt="Zurich" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="36082e15-c636-4481-bb68-5a5f6443fe39" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-22%20at%2010.41.36%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=5P6VD.fvmqjQfIG3TWWMRXxQWiQBjeFB" />

Rather than replacing the commercial building, fjcstudio has developed a design that works with the existing structural framework above the rail corridor, an approach that significantly reduces demolition while allowing the site to be repositioned as a mixed-use residential precinct.

The existing structural constraints have informed much of the building's design, including its relationship with Blue Street and surrounding public spaces.

The building has been designed as a slender tower rising above a clearly defined podium, with vertically expressed façades intended to reduce the perceived bulk while reinforcing North Sydney's emerging skyline.

According to fjcstudio, the architectural language responds directly to the surrounding commercial towers while maintaining a finer grain expression more closely aligned with the neighbouring Lavender Bay streetscape.

The tower incorporates articulated façade elements, landscaped podium edges and recessed upper levels to soften its appearance and improve pedestrian amenity below.

A significant component of the proposal is the revitalisation of Blue Street Plaza.

The existing public space has long served as one of the primary pedestrian connections between North Sydney Station, Greenwood Plaza and Blue Street, yet its role is expected to become even more important following the opening of Sydney Metro.

Zurich's proposal seeks to strengthen that role by improving landscaping, introducing new retail frontages, enhancing pedestrian permeability and creating more active edges throughout the day and evening.

Ground floor retail would wrap the plaza, while separate residential and co-living entries have been designed to improve wayfinding without reducing street activation.

Landscape design has been integrated throughout the podium and public realm, softening what is currently one of the most heavily urbanised parts of North Sydney.

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fjcstudio has carefully oriented apartments towards Sydney Harbour and the CBD while using privacy blades and articulated façades to minimise overlooking between neighbouring buildings.

Large framed openings along the western elevation maximise harbour outlooks, while the eastern apartments have been angled towards the south-east to improve privacy from neighbouring development.

The project forms part of the continuing transformation of North Sydney from a predominantly commercial CBD into a genuine mixed-use city centre.

Since the completion of Victoria Cross Metro Station, developers have increasingly shifted their attention towards residential projects capable of leveraging the area's unparalleled transport connectivity.

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FiveX recently lodged plans for a 61-storey, 490-apartment tower that would become one of the tallest residential buildings in North Sydney if approved.

Aqualand continues to expand its Lower North Shore presence following the completion of AURA on Walker Street and its recent St Leonards and Roseville proposals.

Developers are also progressing projects throughout Walker Street, Miller Street and the Victoria Cross precinct as demand for well-located owner-occupier apartments continues to strengthen.

Joel Robinson

First look: Zurich targets North Sydney office conversion with 148-unit proposal above Metro station

Busy developer Aqualand Prestige has formally taken the next step in its expansion across Sydney's Lower North Shore, lodging a State Significant Development Application (SSDA) for its long-held Archer Street site in Chatswood.

The application covers <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/51-55-archer-street-chatswood-nsw-2067">51-55 Archer Street</a>, a 1,767 sqm amalgamated site on the eastern edge of the Chatswood CBD, where the developer is seeking approval for a 45-level mixed-use tower delivering 114 apartments, including a significant affordable housing component, alongside retail, commercial space and six basement levels of parking.

The SSDA marks the latest milestone for a project Aqualand has been quietly progressing over the past two years. The developer first secured the site for its Aqualand Prestige platform before undertaking an alternative design excellence process with PTW Architects, ultimately avoiding a formal design competition through the Housing Delivery Authority pathway.

The proposal has evolved considerably from Aqualand's original concept. The revised scheme has been designed around larger owner-occupier product, with an unusually high proportion of three and four-bedroom apartments, targeting the more affluent buyer profile, and downsizer, emerging across the North Shore.

<img alt="Archer St" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0171204c-5811-41b5-9b09-2335d1b7c3d0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-22%20at%208.52.48%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=6YTuxfq.puZo7k2wbfgemcO5K3QfXYGQ" />

The 114-apartment mix comprises six studios, 27 one-bedroom apartments, 18 two-bedroom apartments, 50 three-bedroom residences and 13 four-bedroom homes. A quarter of the building will be dedicated to affordable housing, well above the mandated 15 per cent&nbsp;

PTW has structured the building vertically, with affordable housing across levels one to six, premium apartments through levels seven to 31, duplex skyhomes on klevels 32 to 43, a penthouse on level 44, and a rooftop plant level above. Six basement levels will provide resident parking and servicing.

The tower is proposed to reach approximately 154 metres, placing it among a growing collection of residential high-rises transforming Chatswood's skyline.

Rather than competing purely on height, PTW says the design has been driven by creating a slimmer tower capable of delivering significantly larger apartments.

"The primary objective of this project was to create a distinctive building that stands out from the recently approved or built structures in the Chatswood area," the design report states, noting the structural efficiency allows greater investment into apartment quality and resident amenity.

Residents would have access to more than 450 sqm of communal open space including landscaped gardens, swimming pool, rooftop entertaining areas, fitness spaces, community gardens, children's play areas and barbecue facilities.

A major focus of the design has been the public domain.

The ground plane has been opened up through landscaped terraces inspired by Willoughby's sandstone ridges, with native planting, public seating, artwork, retail activation and a series of gathering spaces intended to soften what has traditionally been a hard commercial streetscape.

The landscape strategy references Blue Gum forests once common throughout the area, while incorporating Indigenous storytelling, public art and lighting installations to strengthen the connection to Country.

Chatswood has been one of Sydney's busiest apartment markets over the past 12 months, with a steady pipeline of both new project launches and fresh development applications.

Hyecorp recently launched Celine, a 122-apartment development just along Archer Street, while Changfa and Huirong Group are progressing The Anderson, an 84-apartment project on Anderson Street.

Develotek recently secured approval for a 101-apartment tower on Pacific Highway, while Tian An LFD received the green light for Hammond Greens, its apartment development on the edge of the Chatswood Bowling Club.

Commercial property developer FiveX is also making its move into the residential market. Last month it lodged plans for a 61-storey tower with 490 apartments, which, if approved, would become one of the tallest residential buildings in Chatswood.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-fivex-targets-chatswood-skyline-with-61-storey-tower-after-north-sydney-plans">First look: FiveX targets Chatswood skyline with 61-storey tower after North Sydney plans</a>

Aqualand is also expanding its development pipeline following the launch of its luxury residential brand, Aqualand Prestige. The developer has delivered a string of high-end apartment projects across Sydney's affluent suburbs over the past decade, most recently AURA by Aqualand on Walker Street in North Sydney.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=30959 project_image_fid=292863]

It has since quietly assembled its next wave of projects.

Earlier this year Aqualand launched Boronia in Roseville, a boutique 111-apartment development on Larkin Street. The project is one of the first significant apartment developments to launch in the suburb ahead of what is expected to become one of Sydney's most active new housing precincts under the NSW Government's Low and Mid-Rise Housing reforms, which allow greater density around train stations.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152095 project_image_fid=373685]

The developer has also lodged plans for a two-tower, 413-apartment development on Herbert Street in nearby St Leonards, further strengthening its presence across the Lower North Shore.

Beyond that, Aqualand remains behind the final stage of Barangaroo, where plans will deliver a five-hectare mixed-use precinct comprising new homes, retail, hospitality and community facilities, alongside a new Metro entrance and more than two hectares of public open space, completing the Barangaroo precinct.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/central-barangaroo-development-takes-big-step-with-concept-proposal-approval">Central Barangaroo development takes big step with concept proposal approval</a>

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-aqualand-joins-st-leonards-apartment-party">First look: Aqualand joins St Leonards apartment party</a> 
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First look: Aqualand pushes ahead with Chatswood apartment tower as SSDA lodged for Archer Street

Mass timber is becoming an increasingly popular construction material in apartment developments, but Adelaide developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/otello">Otello</a> is taking the approach a step further.

At its new <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flowe-bowden-18-gibson-street-bowden-sa-5007">Flowe Bowden</a> development, the exposed cross-laminated timber (CLT) structure isn't just about reducing the building's environmental footprint. It also forms the foundation of a broader wellness strategy, influencing everything from indoor air quality and natural materials to the way residents move through and experience the building.

The 115-apartment mixed-use development, designed by Melbourne-based architecture practice Fieldwork, will occupy a prominent island site opposite Bowden Village Reserve, combining one, two and three-bedroom apartments with retail and a dedicated wellness destination.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152022 project_image_fid=375528]

Wellness isn't confined to a gym or shared resident facility at Flowe. Instead, Fieldwork embedded the concept into the building itself.

The development has been split into two residential wings connected by a naturally ventilated central breezeway, replacing traditional enclosed corridors with open-air walkways that improve natural light, encourage cross ventilation and create more opportunities for neighbourly interaction.

"Rather than treating wellness as something that only happens on the ground floor, our response integrates it throughout the building, which led us to ask what it really means to design a healthy building," Fieldwork Director Quino Holland said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152022 project_image_fid=375531]

The building's architecture also reflects Bowden's industrial heritage. The lower podium references the area's historic brick and sandstone buildings, while the upper levels transition to exposed CLT, allowing the timber structure to become a defining feature throughout the apartments and shared spaces.

The use of mass timber sits alongside a range of sustainability initiatives, including a fully electric, gas-free design, rooftop solar and a targeted 5 Star Green Star rating.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152022 project_image_fid=375524]

Inside the residences, the focus remains on natural, durable materials. Blackbutt engineered timber flooring, exposed CLT ceilings, porcelain surfaces and warm timber joinery create a calming interior palette, while low-VOC finishes and responsibly sourced materials have been selected to improve indoor air quality.

Kitchens have been designed as the centrepiece of each apartment, featuring porcelain island benchtops, timber-look cabinetry and brushed steel tapware, with layouts that maximise natural light and ventilation.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152022 project_image_fid=375530]

The more traditional interpretation of wellness comes in the form of Level Eleven, a two-storey wellness club spanning the ground floor, mezzanine and first floor.

The facility will include a gym, yoga and reformer Pilates studios, Finnish and infrared saunas, magnesium hot and cold plunge pools, and dedicated recovery spaces. Unlike many residential wellness facilities, Level Eleven will also operate commercially, allowing the broader Bowden community to access the venue while giving residents exclusive membership benefits.

The ground floor has also been designed around everyday living. A café overlooking Bowden Village Reserve will activate the street frontage, while a bike workshop with tool storage, co-working space and dog wash has been incorporated to support daily routines and encourage interaction between residents.

"Flowe brings together my two biggest passions, creating places and creating healthier lives," Otello founder Daniel Harris said.

"We wanted to create something Adelaide hasn't seen before, a genuinely healthy building, where the way you live is lifted without even trying."

Flowe is positioned directly opposite Bowden Village Reserve and within walking distance of Bowden Railway Station and the Adelaide Entertainment Centre, placing future residents just minutes from the Adelaide CBD while remaining connected to one of the city's most established urban renewal precincts.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152022]

Otello launches wellness-focused Flowe Bowden with Adelaide-first mass timber apartment design

Not all apartment amenities are immediately visible.

Swimming pools, gyms, rooftop terraces and residents' lounges have long featured on buyers' wishlists, but as the way Australians live has changed, so too have the features that make apartment living more convenient.

Increasingly, buyers are placing value on the practical aspects of day-to-day life. Fast internet, EV charging, secure bike storage, flexible workspaces and parcel management are becoming just as relevant as lifestyle amenities, reflecting changing habits and expectations.

Online shopping has been one of the biggest drivers of that shift.

Australians spent a record $82.6 billion shopping online in 2025, with almost one in every four retail dollars now spent digitally, making parcel deliveries a routine part of everyday life rather than an occasional convenience.

For apartment residents, however, receiving those deliveries isn't always straightforward.

Without someone home to accept a parcel, deliveries can be redirected to a nearby Post Office, left in building foyers or common areas, or require building management to temporarily store packages. As apartment living continues to grow across Australia's cities, parcel management has become an increasingly important consideration for both residents and developers.

Australia Post's Parcel Locker network is one response to that shift.

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/KPZ9j5FRdsQ?si=Qztc1dNP3ZvEIUhb" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>

Rather than relying on home delivery, eligible parcels can be directed to a nominated Parcel Locker, where they're securely stored until collected. Once a parcel arrives, residents receive a notification through the AusPost app or SMS and can retrieve it using a one-time code or QR code at a time that suits them.

The network has expanded to more than 1,500 locations nationwide, with Parcel Lockers positioned at Post Offices, shopping centres, supermarkets, transport hubs and, increasingly, within or alongside residential developments.

That growing presence reflects a broader change in how apartment buildings are being planned.

Developers are increasingly considering the operational side of apartment living alongside traditional lifestyle amenities. Just as secure mailrooms, bicycle storage and EV charging have become more common inclusions, parcel management is emerging as another feature that supports everyday convenience.

It also helps preserve the arrival experience within a building. Carefully designed lobbies and communal spaces can quickly become cluttered when deliveries accumulate, while secure parcel solutions reduce the likelihood of missed deliveries or parcels being left unattended.

For buyers comparing apartments, these everyday details are becoming part of the decision-making process.

Location, floorplans and finishes remain fundamental, but the features that simplify daily life are carrying greater weight than they once did. As online shopping continues to shape consumer behaviour, secure parcel delivery is increasingly becoming another amenity worth looking for.

Parcel delivery is joining the apartment amenity checklist

Inca Property Group has lodged a State Significant Development Application (SSDA) for Dawn, a 53-apartment oceanfront development overlooking Mona Vale Beach.

The proposal, at 35-39 Darley Street East, would replace an existing 18-apartment strata building with a new owner-occupier-focused development comprising 53 two and three-bedroom apartments, including nine affordable built-to-rent residences delivered under the State's infill affordable housing scheme.

Positioned on a 2,679 sqm elevated site around 280 metres from Mona Vale Beach, the development has been designed to maximise panoramic ocean views while responding to the site's sloping topography.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/inca-property-group">Inca Property Group</a> Managing Director Josh Thompson said the State Significant pathway provided greater certainty for projects of this scale.

"This State Significant pathway gives the team real certainty to progress <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/dawn-35-39-darley-street-east-mona-vale-nsw-2103">Dawn</a> through to completion," Thompson said.

"It allows us to acquire a one-off site, design it carefully and deliver the right offering for the suburb, assessed by the NSW Government's planning department."

The project is one of the first developments in the area to be assessed under the NSW Government's Low and Mid-Rise Housing policy, with the site sitting on the edge of the policy's designated inner area.

The proposal includes three basement levels providing 124 car spaces, alongside a range of resident amenities including a swimming pool, gym, sauna, wellness facilities and private plunge pools for selected ground-floor and penthouse apartments.

<img alt="Dawn" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="fc1a1daf-0ce4-4f12-9076-b1fa553c7a91" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-21%20at%208.42.11%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=4GZ9h.gpNkTljbxyAET8Jfhv51XUamDm" />

Thompson said Dawn had been designed specifically for owner-occupiers and downsizers, a buyer profile that has driven demand across Inca's recent Upper North Shore developments.

"The majority of buyers in our recent North Shore projects have been downsizers, and we are learning exactly what this market is looking for. Beyond the location itself, we have included resort-style amenities to deliver a genuine lifestyle offering," Thompson said.

Located within walking distance of Mona Vale Beach, the town centre, Mona Vale Golf Club and the Royal Motor Yacht Club, Dawn represents Inca's first Northern Beaches project following the sell-out of Tara on Park in Waitara and Ellis Residences, currently under construction in St Ives.

Construction will be undertaken by Inca's in-house construction arm, GOP Constructions.

Dawn is the latest major apartment proposal for Mona Vale, with the suburb emerging as one of the key beneficiaries of the NSW Government's new Low and Mid-Rise Housing policy.

New developer One Living, led by industry veteran Joseph Scuderi, recently secured a site on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, where it is planning around 140 apartments.

IPM is also planning its third project in Mona Vale, significantly increasing the scale of its previous developments with an 82-apartment proposal at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/159-167-darley-street-west-mona-vale-nsw-2103">159-167 Darley Street West</a>, opposite Bayview Golf Course and less than 800 metres from Mona Vale town centre.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/one-living-enters-sydneys-new-apartment-market-with-northern-beaches-site-acquisition">One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition</a>

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-ipm-plans-third-mona-vale-project">First look: IPM plans third Mona Vale project</a>

First look: Inca eyes Mona Vale with State Significant DA for Dawn apartments

Population

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVATION
Any moves to greatly increase the population of northern Australian by 2060 could have a devastating impact on the local environment without long-term careful planning by all tiers of government.
That’s the finding of <a href="https://tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/07293682.2019.1620302" target="_blank" title="The consequences of three urbanisation scenarios for northern Australia">research</a> that looked at several scenarios to increase the population of the north to 5 million people.
That’s an extra 3.7 million people, or an almost four-fold increase in the current population of northern Australia.
But, given the potential impact of climate change on northern Australia, we could see population movement the other way as people in the north head south.
Northern exposure
The region of Australia above the Tropic of Capricorn covers an area of 3,500,000km² – about 45% of Australia’s landmass – yet it houses only 5% of its population.
Proponents of development envisage extreme population growth because of the region’s growing geopolitical importance.
Northern Australia has <a href="https://adcforum.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/NDS14_report_web_sample.pdf" target="_blank" title="NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT Creating the future Australia">already been identified</a> as a “gateway to Asia”.
It’s also <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt24h8n3" title="The Nature of Northern Australia: Its natural values, ecological processes and future prospects">described</a> as the largest intact “savanna remaining on Earth […] with a rich biodiversity of international significance”.
Current federal government planning for northern Australia is in the <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/data-and-publications/our-north-our-future-white-paper-on-developing-northern-australia">Our North, Our Future</a> white paper, released in 2015.
The report adopts a pro-development stance, seeing the north as a place of economic bounty and opportunity.
While it is mute on issues of settlement patterns, there are statements that allude to the government’s support for significant urbanisation:
We need to lay the foundations for rapid population growth and put the north on a trajectory to reach a population of four to five million by 2060.
The white paper also refers to “the development of major population centres of more than a million people”. Such cities would be around six times the size of the current largest northern city of Townsville, <a href="https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/UCL303004?opendocument">population about 180,000</a>.
Three plans for growth
Given the existing city planning documents do not countenance the scale of population growth projected in the white paper, we developed three scenarios for how the federal government could distribute this northern Australian population of 5 million by 2060.
<ul>
<li>Scenario 1: Growth</li>
</ul>
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298027/original/file-20191022-56220-fspunk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298027/original/file-20191022-56220-fspunk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Scenario 1: Growth. Julian Bolleter, Author provided
Economic and lifestyle factors concentrate the increased population in the four dominant northern cities of Darwin, Cairns, Townsville and Mackay. Each would have populations of more than a million by 2060.
<ul>
<li>Scenario 2: Decentralised Growth</li>
</ul>
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298028/original/file-20191022-56198-16qw0fx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298028/original/file-20191022-56198-16qw0fx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Scenario 2: Decentralised Growth. Julian Bolleter, Author provided
The populations of Port Hedland, Broome, Kununurra, Darwin, Cairns, Bowen, Townsville and McKay will each increase by 462,000 people.
<ol>
<li>Scenario 3: Concentrated Growth</li>
</ol>
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298029/original/file-20191022-56242-1q6fv76.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298029/original/file-20191022-56242-1q6fv76.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Scenario 3: Concentrated Growth. Julian Bolleter, Author provided
Economic opportunities see northern Australia’s growing population concentrated in Darwin, which would grow by 1.5 million people by 2060.
This figure is in line with the Australian government’s vision of northern cities with “more than a million people”.
The fate of the north
Irrespective of the scenario, our findings show population growth will not be good for the local environment without any overarching long-term planning frameworks to steer urbanisation.
This is particularly the case for scenarios 1 and 3 where the required increase in urban area either outstrips, or is only just commensurate with, the availability of cleared land adjacent to Darwin, Cairns and Townsville.
As such, population growth at the scale proposed by the white paper could result in substantial destruction, degradation and fragmentation of peri-urban ecosystems – where urban meets rural – by urban development and expanding road networks.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298034/original/file-20191022-56228-1mcel56.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298034/original/file-20191022-56228-1mcel56.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Scenario 1: Growth for Darwin. Julian Bolleter, Author provided
In Darwin’s case, in Scenario 1 the additional 925km² of urbanisation required would sprawl south of the city in a corridor to as far as Humpty Doo (1) and down to Acacia Hills (2).
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298033/original/file-20191022-56215-1cto1wd.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298033/original/file-20191022-56215-1cto1wd.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Scenario 1: Growth for Townsville. Julian Bolleter, Author provided
In Townsville, in Scenario 1 for growth, the additional 925km² of urbanisation would result in sprawling along the coast and around the existing centres of Giru (1) and Woodstock (2), and around Mount Surround (3).
While Townsville has 957km² of cleared land and theoretically could just accommodate this growth, it is likely to cause extensive damage to the local environment through land degradation and fragmentation by urban development.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298035/original/file-20191022-56224-1294zua.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298035/original/file-20191022-56224-1294zua.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Scenario 3: Concentrated Growth for Darwin. Julian Bolleter, Author provided
In Darwin, with Scenario 3 and concentrated growth, the urban expansion required for the city is 1,500km². This would dwarf the city’s 296km² of developable land and result in substantial clearing of remnant vegetation.
Proper planning required
Clearly then, if the scale of population growth envisaged in the white paper occurs without any comprehensive planning, the result will be harmful for the north.
To avoid this fate we need a bipartisan settlement strategy (most closely resembling Scenario 2) to steer the urbanisation of northern Australia.
Policymakers and planners should develop this strategy based on a comprehensive landscape analysis of northern Australia. If the scale of population growth envisaged in the white paper occurs without such planning, the result will be ruinous for one of the world’s last great wildernesses.
But the federal government should also decide whether a population of 5 million in the north is something we should aspire to at all.
If the worst climate change projections are borne out, we could end up with migration from cities such as Darwin to cities further south, even into the southern states.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/125063/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
Julian Bolleter<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/julian-bolleter-292111"></a>, Deputy Director, Australian Urban Design Research Centre, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-western-australia-1067" target="_blank">University of Western Australia</a>.
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/you-cant-boost-australias-north-to-5-million-people-without-a-proper-plan-125063" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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You can’t boost Australia’s north to 5 million people without a proper plan: Julian Bolleter

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The Sunshine Coast property market is heavily reliant on population increases, according to the latest Herron Todd White (HTW) residential report. 
The report suggests the Sunshine Coast has traditionally been one of the fastest growing regions in Australia.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/9/25/sunshine%20coast%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: 
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"When we then look at the volume of residential property sales taking place on the Sunshine Coast in recent years, the correlation between population growth and sale volumes can be seen," the valuation firm said. 
"This graph shows that in 2003 when the population spiked, sale volumes were highest, then in 2011 when the growth rate bottomed out, sale volumes followed accordingly."
A two bedroom beachfront apartment in Caloundra has been sold for $450,000 (pictured below). 
Located at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-unit-qld-caloundra-131641478" target="_blank">3/19 Bulcock Beach Esplanade</a>, the apartment comes with two bedrooms, open plan living areas with balcony, kitchen and two secure garages. 
It's close to the Caloundra CBD with just 200 metres from restaurants, cafés, and parks.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/26/caloudra.jpg" alt="">
A four bedroom house with panoramic views in Maroochy River has been sold for $830,000.
The hilltop home at<a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-qld-maroochy+river-130623542" target="_blank"> 18 Valdora Road</a> (pictured below) comes with four bedrooms, open plan living area, gourmet kitchen and resort style pool.
Other features include BOSE surround sound system, alarm system and ample water storage. 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/26/maroochy.jpg" alt="">
"It’s pretty hard to say if any one area is attracting more out of towners than others" the valuation firm added. 
"Most of our locations on the Coast seem to be having their fair share of new arrivals into their communities though it would be fair to say that suburbs along the coastline would be top of the list.
"Given the increased demand for housing, we mainly the upgrade to the Bruce Highway. Travel times have been lessened and the affordability in the area has made it very popular." 
The inner rural residential ring around the township has increased in demand as have some of the character houses in town.
As a result, some new businesses have been opening up in a number of industries.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/9/25/sunshine%20coast%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/25/sunshine%20coast%202.jpg" alt="">
The report notes the increase in population of the Sunshine Coast assists in underpinning property values. The issue then lies in jobs and infrastructure.
"It is good that the University Hospital is not at full capacity, the new airport runway is yet to be finished and we have a new town centre, however just driving around the Coast, you do feel that there are more and more people on the roads. It used to be in holiday periods but now feels like it’s all the time.
"The question is whether those roads and other services will keep up with the growth," the valuation firm concluded. 
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Sunshine Coast population growth assists in underpinning property values: HTW residential 

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<div>There's quite a bit been said on the apparent mass exodus from Sydney.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Again, there's a strong element truth to this story.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>But it's equally important not to take away the wrong visual image from this. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The fact is, New South Wales always loses people interstate, and it always will, largely to Brisbane, south east Queensland, and even to Melbourne.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In reality, though, the numbers leaving the state on a net basis were dramatically lower in the 2011-2016 Census period than they were in the preceding five years. And they were much, much lower than they were in the five years before that, with net interstate migration tracking at way under the half the rate of seen from 2001 to 2006.</div>
 
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<div>
To the regions... Now it's true that more people, especially Baby Boomers, have been taking their newly-boosted Sydney equity to move out to regional New South Wales, such as to the Hunter Valley, or to the South Coast.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, this has been offset by a marked <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2017/09/population-growth" target="_blank">increase in immigration to Sydney</a>, as migrants seek employment opportunities. The harbour city of Greater Sydney is growing at a faster pace than previously, probably now at somewhere close to 100,000 per annum, which is well ahead of the decade average.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This will presumably continue for as long as Sydney continues to create <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2017/09/jobs-boom-to-continue" target="_blank">record job openings</a>. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The net impact of this dynamic - high immigration and resident Sydneysiders moving outwards or interstate - is that Sydney has a substantial foreign-born population (which now comprises more Chinese-born residents than British-born, a remarkable statistic in its own right). There's plenty of disingenuous 'analysis' of the capital city economies, focusing on resources exports and ignoring services exports, for example, while also ignoring Australia's record levels of household wealth and the comparative improvement in standard of living for so many immigrants. The Productivity Commission ("PC") has delivered another long report on the importance of the large cities to Australian wealth, and why services industries and employment growth fare best within them, in part due to proximity to other businesses and labour supply. The fact is that over the most recent year Sydney (38.6 per cent) and Melbourne (28.4 per cent) have unsurprisingly dominated contributions to Australia's GDP growth, according to analysis by Terry Rawnsley of SGS Economics &amp; Planning. Challenges abound
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>All of the above having been said, it's reasonable expect to see interstate migration to south east Queensland accelerating again over the next five years. One of the most noteworthy challenges identified by the PC is that about 60 per cent of new jobs are created within 10 kilometres of the Central Business Districts, but housing supply in those locations is not keeping up with this pace of growth by about half. The PC found that most jobs that can be reached within 45 minutes by car are located in the inner city, while on the city fringe this is the case for fewer that 20 per cent of jobs.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>By 2050 an additional 10.8 million people are projected to be living in Australia's capital cities, as well as an extra 2.4 million people in the non-capital city areas. </div>
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The population exodus from Sydney: Pete Wargent

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<div>The 2016 Census showed that Australia still has an ageing population, and the number of deaths continues to rise to record highs, in turn meaning that the natural increase in the population has been slowing. </div>
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<div>The ageing of the population has been combated through the immigration programme, which is largely - if not exclusively - tilted towards younger migrants into Australia. While new government figures show that 457 visa issuance is falling, student visas are recording double digit rates of growth, and now sit at the highest level on record. The rising tide of international students will largely impact the inner suburbs of Melbourne and Sydney. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>And annual net overseas migration has really picked up the pace over the past six quarters, up by +30 per cent to +231,890 in the March 2017 quarter. </div>
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<div>This surge in net overseas migration has pushed the annual national rate of growth in the estimated resident population back up to +1.6 per cent or +389,072. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Population growth in the seasonally strong March quarter was particularly stark in 2017 at +126,138. </div>
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<div>Headcount growth remains a bit below the rate of growth seen during the headiest of the mining boom migration years, but is nevertheless very strong.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Apartment glut picked off</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Moreover, there's a concentration issue afoot, with immigrants overwhelmingly heading to three main regions: Sydney, Melbourne, and south-east Queensland. </div>
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<div>Internally, migration continues to take folks away from Sydney (nothing new there, it's been happening for decades). Some Sydneysiders are taking their boosted equity out to regional New South Wales - especially to the South Coast and to the Hunter - and others are heading north to Queensland. Western Australia, Northern Territory, and South Australia continue to lose residents at a concerning rate, with internal migrants largely headed to Melbourne (for jobs) or south-east Queensland (for climate, lifestyle...and, well, hopefully a job). A smattering of interstate migrants are also bound for Hobart and Canberra. </div>
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<div>The net result has been to send Victoria's annual population growth steaming up to a gold-rush-like +149,374 or +2.43 per cent, which is a staggering rate of growth, and renders predictions of a Melbourne dwelling oversupply meaningless, at least until population growth slows. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>From a year earlier, growth in the estimated resident population has also accelerated very strongly in New South Wales (+123,296) and Queensland (+75,372). The capital cities account for the great bulk of the population growth in the two most populous states, and somewhat less so in Queensland's case. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Annual population growth appears to have steadied in Western Australia, after some downward revisions to previous estimates. </div>
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<div>Build, and they may come</div>
<div> </div>
<div>With the ageing of the population and an accelerating 'death bust', if that's not too dramatic a term, growth in headcount has become much more focused on net immigration than natural increase. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>It's interesting to note that the sharp increase in the estimated resident population over the past 18 months has largely impacted the apartment construction hotspots of Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>A high number of apartment completions are expected in 2017, yet with the estimated resident population increasing by more than 126,000 in the first three months of the calendar year alone, the assumed apartment glut may not deliver the jolt previously anticipated. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.
His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.
</div>
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Build and they may come: Pete Wargent on the headcount and apartment glut speculation

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GUEST OBSERVER
Population estimates
Population: Australia’s population expanded by 389,072 people over the year to March 2017 to 24,511,773 people. Overall, Australia’s annual population growth rate rose from 1.553 per cent to 1.613 per cent – the fastest population growth in three years. 
Big quarterly increase: Australia's population grew by 126,138 people over the March quarter - the biggest quarterly increase in nine years.
Victoria leads: Over the past year population growth was the strongest in Victoria (2.43 per cent, the fastest population growth since 1960), followed by the ACT (1.78 per cent), NSW (1.60 per cent), Queensland (1.56 per cent), Western Australia (0.72 per cent), South Australia (0.599 per cent), Tasmania (0.598 per cent) and the Northern Territory (0.14 per cent).
The population figures are especially important for companies exposed to home building and consumer spending.
What does it all mean?
In Victoria, population growth is the fastest in 57 years. In NSW, population growth is the fastest in eight years. And In Tasmania you have to go back six years to find a faster rate of population growth. In fact in all states and territories other than South Australia and Northern Territory, population growth is lifting.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/28/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-28%20at%208.14.49%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/09/28/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-28%20at%208.14.49%20AM.png" alt="">
In some regions, it is natural increase – more babies being born (less the number of deaths) – that is driving population growth. In other regions it is immigration. But overall the stronger rate of population growth is boosting spending, demand for infrastructure, demand for homes, and overall economic growth.
Businesses need to dissect the figures and drill down further to find out which regions are growing the faster, Because those regions present some of the best opportunities
What do the figures show?
Population Statistics:
Australia’s population expanded by 389,072 people over the year to March 2017 to 24,511,773 people. Overall, Australia’s annual population growth rate rose from 1.553 per cent to 1.613 per cent – the fastest population growth in three years
Over the past year population growth was the strongest in Victoria (2.43 per cent, the fastest population growth since 1960), followed by the ACT (1.78 per cent), NSW (1.60 per cent), Queensland (1.56 per cent), Western Australia (0.72 per cent), South Australia (0.599 per cent), Tasmania (0.598 per cent) and the Northern Territory (0.14 per cent).
Australia’s population grew by 126,138 people over the March quarter – the biggest quarterly increase in nine years. 
A total of 231,900 people migrated to Australia over year to March, up from 209,000 in the year to December and the biggest annual gain in four years. Still, growth is still down the peak of 315,700 migrants in the year to December 2008.
There were 302,500 babies born in the past year – just shy of the record growth of 312,200 babies born in the year to December 2012.
Population growth in Victoria is 19.7 per cent above the decade average and population growth in NSW is 14.3 per cent above the decade average. In Tasmania population growth is 8.1 per cent higher than the decade average.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/28/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-28%20at%208.16.21%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/09/28/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-28%20at%208.16.21%20AM.png" alt="">
Why is the data important?
Demographic Statistics are issued by the Bureau of Statistics each quarter. The figures include estimates of births, deaths, in-bound and out-bound migration movements and estimates of population change by State.
What are the implications?
There are more people coming to Australia and more babies being born. Overall, population is rising, adding to demand for a raft of businesses across a range of industry sectors. 
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The lift in the growth of the population and the physical population numbers, lifts demand for infrastructure, thus boosting the outlook for builders, building material companies and construction companies. 
While economic growth is poised to lift over the coming year, CommSec believes that cash rates will remain unchanged until late in 2018. 
Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>.
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Biggest quarterly lift in population in 9 years driving building boost: Craig James

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GUEST OBSERVER
The latest statistics show Australia's population growth in the last decade has been significantly higher than in other developed countries.
Population growth has profound impacts on Australian life, and sorting myths from facts can be difficult. This is the second article in our series, Is Australia Full?, which aims to help inform a wide-ranging and often emotive debate.
Population change has long been a topic of public debate in Australia, periodically escalating into controversy.
It is inextricably linked to debates about immigration levels, labour force needs, capital city congestion and housing costs, refugee intakes, economic growth in country areas and northern Australia, the “big versus smaller” Australia debate, and environmental pressures.
Views about the rate of population growth in Australia are numerous and mixed. At one end of the spectrum are those who are vehemently opposed to further population increases; at the other end are supporters of substantially higher population growth and a “very big” Australia.
Logically, population debates usually quote Australia’s demographic statistics. But there is value in comparing our population growth in the international context.
<h2>Average growth rates compared globally</h2>
Although growth rates have fluctuated considerably from year to year, statistics just released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) show that Australia’s population grew by 3.75 million between 2006 and 2016. This indicates an average annual growth rate of 1.7%.
As the chart below shows, this was quite high compared to other countries and global regions. Over the decade, other English-speaking countries such as New Zealand, Canada and the US all experienced growth rates lower than Australia’s. The world’s more developed countries in aggregate grew by an annual average of 0.3%.
The world’s population as a whole increased by an average of 1.2% per year.
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According to the UN Population Division, Australia ranked 90th out of 233 countries in terms of population growth rate over the decade. The countries or territories with higher growth rates were mostly less developed countries, particularly in Africa, and the oil-rich Gulf states. The only developed countries with faster rates of growth were Singapore, Luxembourg and Israel.
<h2>Why Australia’s population growth rate is higher</h2>
There are two main reasons for Australia’s high growth.
Net overseas migration (immigration minus emigration) is one major factor. It has been generating a little over half (56%) of population growth in recent years.
Demand for immigration – to settle permanently, work in Australia, or study here for a few years – is high, and there are many opportunities for people to move to Australia. In the 2015-16 financial year about 190,000 visas were granted to migrants and 19,000 for humanitarian and refugee entry. Temporary migrants included 311,000 student visas, 215,000 working holidaymaker visas and 86,000 temporary work (skilled) 457 visas.
Over the last five years, ABS figures show that immigration has averaged about 480,000 per year and emigration about 280,000. This puts annual net overseas migration at around 200,000.
This is high in international terms. UN Population Division data for the 2010-15 periodreveals Australia had the 17th-highest rate of net overseas migration of any country.
But it is not just overseas migration driving Australia’s population growth. High natural increase (the number of births minus the number of deaths) also makes a substantial contribution. Natural increase has been responsible for a little under half (44%) of population growth in recent years (about 157,000 per year).
Australia has a relatively healthy fertility rate, which lately has averaged almost 1.9 babies per woman. We also enjoy one of the highest life expectancies in the world.
This combination of an extended history of net overseas migration gains, a long baby boom and a healthy fertility rate has resulted in Australia being less advanced in the population ageing transition than many other developed countries.
In particular, relatively large numbers of people are in the peak childbearing ages. This means that even if migration fell immediately to zero the population would still increase. Demographers call this age structure effect “population momentum”.
<h2>Whether Australia’s population is growing too fast</h2>
While Australia’s population growth rate is high in a global context, this does not necessarily mean its population is growing too fast. It all depends on your point of view.
It is important to stress that the overall population growth rate is just one aspect of Australia’s demography. A more comprehensive debate about the nation’s demographic trajectory should consider a broad range of issues, such as:
<ul>
<li>
population age structure (the numbers of people in different age groups);
</li>
<li>
the health and wellbeing of a rapidly growing population at the highest ages;
</li>
<li>
population distribution across the country;
</li>
<li>
economic growth and development;
</li>
<li>
the contributions of temporary workers and overseas students;
</li>
<li>
appropriate infrastructure for the needs of the population; and
</li>
<li>
environmental management and per-capita carbon emissions.
</li>
</ul>
Progress on issues such as healthy ageing, economic development,and environmental management depend on appropriate strategies to deal with these challenges. Total population numbers will often be relevant to the discussion, but they are only part of the equation.
Tom Wilson is a Principal Research Fellow at Charles Darwin University and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/tom-wilson-1717" target="_blank">here</a>.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

How babies and migrants have contributed to Australia’s population growth: Tom Wilson

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GUEST OBSERVER
In Sydney and Melbourne, the squeeze is on. Population is booming; house prices are still rising; roads and trains are congested.
Australian governments generally have ignored the benefits of relating metropolitan and regional planning.
However, some state governments are now investigating more integrated sectoral and spatial planning strategies, initially through shifting public sector jobs to regional centres. 
In particular, improved regional rail connections do work. Already rail investments have brought Ballarat, Geelong and other regional centres closer in travel time to Melbourne than many outer suburbs, and this trend will continue. 
Sydney has similar opportunities with regional rail connections, but has not yet exercised them. Rail services to and from Gosford, Newcastle and Wollongong have improved little over recent decades. 
Rail bypasses clogged arteries
For decades, policymakers’ preferred solution to congestion has been adding and widening freeways. But promises of faster travel times and freer movement have been illusory. New roads and freeway lanes induce more traffic and will provide short-lived solutions in our biggest cities.
These cities are the main drivers of Australia’s national economy, attracting advanced business service professionals and knowledge providers. 
Access to high-value jobs, transport arteries that function well, and better-managed population growth will become critically important to urban economies as these cities move towards populations of 8 million people. 
In Sydney and Melbourne, critics are claiming that major new road projects such as WestConnex and the Western Distributor will increase central city traffic congestion, particularly for work-related journeys. 
Victoria proves regional rail works
Contrast that with the success of regional rail development. Victoria has invested several billion dollars in a series of projects. These have raised maximum regional train speeds to provincial cities to 160kph, increased reliability, provided new and much faster trains and transformed frequency.
The 119km peak-hour trip from Ballarat to Melbourne before these investments took two hours, with four trains a day on offer. Today 22 daily trains operate in each direction between Melbourne and Ballarat. Boarding the 4.33pm from Southern Cross delivers passengers to Ballarat 65 minutes later. 
From Geelong, the transformation has been even greater. The recently completed Regional Rail Link runs 55 daily trains each way. The project was the first to be approved by Infrastructure Australia, backed by A$3.8 billion in state and Commonwealth funding.
Patronage boom calls for more work
These upgrades, however, have become victims of their own success. Some lines have recorded a 300% increase in patronage. Similar increases are projected for the next decade. 
Remarkably, within two years of opening, patronage growth has already reached capacity on the inner part of the Regional Rail Link (which segregates metropolitan from country trains for travel to and from central Melbourne). There is little or no capacity for extra trains to be run in peak times. 
Trains are becoming ever more crowded. Long-distance commuters have valued their ability to work, read or sleep on these trains, especially during their homeward journeys. They must now compete for seats with others from rapidly expanding western suburbs, which are yet to gain their own suburban train services. 
A short-term fix would create longer trains of eight carriages instead of six. A medium-term fix would electrify and provide separate services to the part of the Geelong line that serves the new dormitory suburbs. 
These changes need to be complemented by more frequent and better co-ordinated feeder bus services to stations. In addition, easily accessed large commuter carparks need to be built on vacant land on the Melbourne side of the major regional centres.
In the longer term, the answer lies in providing more multiple tracks to fully segregate suburban and regional trains in suburban areas. Providing robust double-line railways in each corridor will prevent the cascade effect that occurs when trains delay each other on single lines. 
The completion of level-crossing removals will also allow higher operating speeds and safer operations. Trains will be able to move progressively to maximum speeds of 200kph where feasible rather than 160kph. 
Regional cities must avoid past mistakes
These rail investments will further promote population growth in regional cities. Already, regionally developed services, more affordable housing stock and less frantic lifestyles are acting as attractors.
It is essential to integrate the planning of major regional transport projects with spatial planning to avoid the undesirable results of fragmented policy. 
Some regional centres are repeating the worst mistakes of metropolitan low-density urban sprawl by expanding on greenfield sites far from town centres. Modelling of Victorian regional towns has shown that they contain in-fill opportunities to at least double existing populations and provide a range of affordable housing options. 
To maintain liveability for expected high population growth, heavy rail investment is vital. Carefully targeted regional rail investment can shrink distance, provide access to more jobs and better lifestyles, and contribute to wider housing choices. 
This investment is a critical requirement for continued prosperity in Australia’s largest urban centres.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/michael-buxton-1381" target="_blank">Michael Buxton</a> is professor of Environment and Planning, RMIT University and author for <a href="https://theconversation.com/au" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>.
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This is how regional rail can help ease our big cities’ commuter crush

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/78183/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
Considering all the aspects of life in Australia that are affected by population, it's remarkable that the nation doesn't have a national policy on it.
Population growth has profound impacts on Australian life, and sorting myths from facts can be difficult. This is the first article in our series, Is Australia Full?, which aims to help inform a wide-ranging and often emotive debate.
Australia lacks an overarching population policy or strategy. Over the years, multiple inquiries have recommended such a policy. Population policies the world over typically focus on births and migration.
As part of post-war reconstruction, Australia adopted a 2% population growth target. Mass immigration was a defining feature, and couples were called on to populate or perish. Immigration was successful, but women were big losers in the push for births.
The 1975 National Population Inquiry proved a significant moment in Australian demography. The inquiry found that Australia should not seek to influence population, but should anticipate and respond.
Population policy was revisited in the 1990s with the National Population Council. Its 1994 report found no optimal population size for Australia, but again called for a responsive population policy of preparedness.
Interest in sustainable population policy was renewed in 2010 following Kevin Rudd’s infamous endorsement of a “big Australia”. We even had a minister for population, Tony Burke, for about six months until the portfolio was expanded. Population was subsequently dropped from any ministerial title.
After an exhaustive inquiry, A Sustainable Population Strategy for Australia was released in 2011. This stopped short of recommending a population policy but removed any option of population limits. Change felt possible in shifting the narrative to a proactive endeavour concerning population matters, particularly evident in the National Urban Policy.
Despite such inquiries and recommendations to adopt a population policy, governments have so far resisted. Unsuccessful attempts at population policy can be understood in terms of difficulties in gaining political support and concerns about coercion.
But national population policy need not be coercive – unlike, for example, in India or China. Instead, it can be a series of targets and connected policy domains with oversight.
Presently, the policy landscape is disjointed. Parenting leave, family and childcare payments, and immigration are each somewhat responsive to population changes, but not prepared. Family payments have been shown not to increase birth rates.
<h2>Births, deaths, migration – and taxes</h2>
The intergenerational reports have been our only glimpse of responsiveness and preparedness. But these have increasingly been criticised for their political tone. Who could forget the Challenge of Change campaign?
What we know is that Australia’s population continues to age, so among the nation’s pressing issues is fewer taxpayers. The total age-related dependency ratio, of people aged over and under working age relative to the working-aged population, was 52 per 100 people in 2016.
While the child-dependency rate (0-14 year olds) is higher than the aged-dependency rate (people 65 and over), the rate of people aged less than 15 has steadily declined as the population aged 65 and over has driven increases in the so-called dependency burden.
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The relative increase in people older than working age is increasing pressure on the economy and government budgets. While government spending on young people is substantial, the highest per person spending is among people aged 65 and over.
A robust workforce contributing income tax and services is essential to ensure current lifestyles are afforded to the young while also sustaining the public spending necessary for people over 65 years who have over their lives contributed to the nation.
With birth rates low and deaths increasing, natural increase is no longer driving Australia’s population. Immigration is increasingly relied on to offset the ageing of the workforce. Over half (54%) of Australia’s population growth is from net overseas migration.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/05/xdgfchgjhjn.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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<h2>Preparing for an older population</h2>
In a 2013 United Nations survey, the Australian government reported concerns about population ageing, a desire to increase the “too low” birth rate, but satisfaction with the level of net overseas migration. Interestingly, a preference for migration away from cities was also cited.
From current policy and discourse, you would not know these views were held. Most Australians also report a preference for the level of immigration to remain the same or be increased, contrary to sentiments we often hear.
Australia has time to prepare for, and make opportunities of, the challenges of an ageing population. Some countries are facing tough decisions now and it is interesting to watch the politics play out. What Japan, China and Germany show is that we need to take action now.
Insightful guides are in place already. South Australia has had a population strategy since 2004. Tasmania recently adopted one.
These state strategies focus on growth to curb economic downturn. What is important in these two cases is that both emphasise policy portfolio linkages, as well as evidence and reporting against targets without coercive measures.
<h2>What is a sensible approach to population policy?</h2>
A renewed, earnest and transparent population conversation is needed. With ever more reliance on immigration, we must go beyond the unhelpful pro-immigration versus pro-nationalism debate to consider our population prospects.
The key question is: how can Australia make opportunities of its demographic challenges?
Australia has the potential to be a global leader in innovative markets and research and development. An ageing population provides an interesting market opening; we just need to be smart about it. Without careful consideration, Australia will be merely a bystander in the increasingly competitive global market.
Policy connectedness should exist between portfolios. These include: health; housing; education, skills and training; employment; infrastructure; regional development; water and energy; environment; and migrant settlement.
We can invest more effectively in young people – our future workforce and economic lifeblood – if we consider a life-course approach to population dynamics. Family friendly, gender-equal workplaces will go a long way to ease the pressures of having children. Integral to this is affordable and accessible child care.
And establishing a ministerial portfolio overseeing population strategy would be a good start.
Liz Allen is a Demographer, ANU Centre for Social Research and Methods, Australian National University and author for The Conversation. she can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/liz-allen-10193" target="_blank">here</a>.
 
 
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Australia doesn’t have a population policy – why? Liz Allen

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GUEST OBSERVER
A recent episode of ABC TV’s Ask the Doctor pointed to poor urban planning as a major culprit in worsening obesity rates and associated lifestyle diseases such as diabetes. The show highlighted suburbs without footpaths, fresh-food outlets or exercise opportunities.
Built environments are important contributors to our health and wealth. Urban planners strive to create the best environments, but many describe the results as “obesogenic” – that is, places where fast-food outlets abound and there are few opportunities to be sufficiently physically active.
Increasing access to health data, along with the powerful analytical tools needed to interpret these data, provides an opportunity to develop a real fix for this worsening situation.
How far planners have come
Urban planners have come a long way in supporting healthy and active living. Internationally, this goes back to the late 1940s, when the World Health Organisation (WHO) defined health as much more than the absence of disease.
The subsequent and ongoing development of the WHO Healthy Cities movement, the declaration of the Ottawa Charter, and the publication of the social determinants of health and the related settlement map, further reinforced the importance of urban planning and design in creating places that support health and wellbeing.
Recently, the UN Sustainable Development Goals cemented this focus on healthy built environments.
In Australia, this global recognition has brought built environment and health professionals into a closer working relationship. For example:
The Victorian government requires local councils to prepare municipal health plans.
The New South Wales government policy acknowledges the built environment as a key determinant of health.
In Western Australia, the longitudinal RESIDE project traces the health impacts on residents of the Liveable Neighbourhoods Community Design Guidelines.
In Queensland, a Healthy Futures Commission has been legislated to tackle chronic disease by adopting healthy lifestyles.
The National Heart Foundation has made an impressive set of contributions to healthy built environments.
The Planning Institute of Australia has spearheaded interdisciplinary collaborations. Most recently, it issued a statement supporting healthy built environments.
How health data can help
Despite this progress, some health indicators continue to deteriorate. The numbers of children either overweight or obese is a global public heath epidemic. In Australia, around 25% of children are overweight or obese.
This trend is worrying, as obesity in childhood and adulthood is strongly linked.
Being overweight or obese is a significant risk factor for developing type 2 diabetes. Globally, more than 420 million people have type 2 diabetes, and these numbers have quadrupled since 1980. In Western Sydney alone, 60% of adults are overweight or obese.
But increasing access to health data and more readily available analytical tools offer new opportunities to tackle ever-growing rates of obesity.
The Heart Foundation has published comprehensive design guidelines and a website linking research evidence to good practice.
In NSW, the Healthy Urban Development Checklist assists health professionals to comment on the extent to which urban planning proposals will support health. In Victoria, Community Indicators link practitioners with communities to create healthy places.
Other tools include Healthy Built Environment Indicators and the NSW Integrated Planning and Reporting Framework to get physical activity and healthy eating into local council community strategic plans.
Beyond these approaches, geographical information systems (GIS) and other analytical tools can help tackle obesity. South Australia’s Department for Health and Ageing used GIS to plot gaps in built environment facilities and resources that impact childhood obesity. One study established a link between obesity and access to fast-food outlets.
Another initiative provided insights into the spatial patterning of health issues by developing a diabetes map.
Using these tools is a step in the right direction. But challenges remain, particularly in terms of access to health data. The release of datasets such as the National Health Services Directory and the National Deaths and Mortality database is encouraging.
Greater ease of use improves implementation
Increasing user-friendliness of analytical tools, such as GIS and online portals like the AURIN workbench, and walkability planning support systems offer more powerful means of understanding the relationship between health and the built environment.
However, to seize these opportunities, we need enhanced data analysis, interpretation and presentation skills for planners and policymakers.
It takes skill to communicate the stories in the data and clearly identify the implications and required policy responses. Practical and policy-relevant research is critical.
Enshrining the need for planning healthy built environments in legislation will help planners in their fundamental role of promoting healthy lifestyles. Planners can be taught the theory. But putting it into practice requires a strong policy framework to support principles, maintain standards and withstand cost-cutting pressures.
With the increasing democratisation of health data and better access to analytical tools such as Australian National Data Services, AURIN and others, spatial thinking, data-driven approaches and collaborative action can fast-track plans for new and renewed environments that enable healthy living.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/alison-taylor-388947" target="_blank">Alison Taylor</a> is lecturer, Faculty of Built Environment, UNSW.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/christopher-pettit-388997" target="_blank">Christopher Pettit</a> is professor of Urban Science, UNSW.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/ori-gudes-114294" target="_blank">Ori Gudes</a> is research fellow, Cities Futures Research Centre, UNSW.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/susan-thompson-116543" target="_blank">Susan Thompson</a> is professor of Planning and Head, City Wellbeing Program, City Futures Research Centre, UNSW.
All are authors for <a href="https://theconversation.com/au" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>.
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