Just a few months after acquiring a prime Broadbeach site on the corner of First Avenue and Surf Parade, family-run developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/raptis">Raptis</a> has filed fresh plans for a new apartment development.

Raptis is seeking to deliver a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/17-19-first-avenue-broadbeach-qld-4217">29-storey tower with 73 apartments</a> on the 818 sqm site. It will be the developer's seventh project in the suburb, as they are approaching completion of The Sterling on George Avenue.

There will be a pool, barbecue and outdoor dining area, residents lounge and dining, sauna and steam room, gym, and a Yoga and Pilates studio.

<img alt="Raptis" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b554da3f-7344-49aa-b1c9-44cf459af0d7" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-05%20at%2010.41.45%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=zzjWu1iO1wnuYv4EV4fyOyf5nSXjGYut" />

Raptis Joint Managing Director, Evan Raptis, says they remain&nbsp;committed to developing quality infill sites across the Gold Coast in the lead-up to the 2032 Brisbane Olympics.

"This project continues our long track record of delivery in Broadbeach, and we look forward to bringing another premium development to this thriving precinct."

The announcement follows strong delivery momentum for Raptis, with The Sterling Broadbeach nearing completion and construction well underway on the final stage of the Waterpoint community adjacent to Harbour Town. The developer's continued investment in the Gold Coast reflects confidence in the region's apartment market fundamentals, underpinned by sustained Southeast Queensland population growth.&nbsp;

The outlook for the region is further bolstered by infrastructure investment tied to the Brisbane 2032 Olympic Games, which is expected to drive continued economic and population growth across the SEQ corridor.&nbsp;

Subject to a favourable response from Gold Coast City Council, construction on the new First Avenue tower is targeted to commence before the end of 2026.&nbsp;

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/it-s-all-in-the-family-four-decades-later-raptis-continues-to-shape-the-gold-coast-skyline">It’s all in the family: Four decades later, Raptis continues to shape the Gold Coast skyline</a>

Read more: <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/raptis-secures-prime-surf-parade-site-for-next-broadbeach-apartment-development">Raptis secures prime Surf Parade site for next Broadbeach apartment development</a> 
&nbsp;

Gold Coast developer brings seventh Broadbeach project to market, targeting construction commencement before year end

Joel Robinson

First look: Raptis lodges plans for new 29-storey Broadbeach tower 

Brisbane development veteran Kevin Seymour's Seymour Group is set to deepen its presence on one of Brisbane's most tightly held riverfront addresses, lodging revised plans for a luxury apartment development on Oxlade, just a few doors down from The Oxlade, which it completed in 2024.

The <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/70-72-oxlade-drive-new-farm-qld-4005">new project at 70-72 Oxlade Drive</a>, directly north of The Oxlade, will have 27 apartments across a seven-storey building&nbsp;overlooking the Brisbane River and Merthyr Park. It's a revision from a 2021-approved design.

Designed by bureau^proberts, the project has evolved from the previously approved 26-apartment scheme, introducing an additional penthouse level while maintaining a low-density, boutique character. The development will comprise 26 three-bedroom apartments and a single four-bedroom penthouse, supported by two basement levels with 86 car spaces and 34 bicycle spaces.

The architectural response is centred around two distinct building forms separated by a landscaped open-air atrium.&nbsp;"This dual composition captures and embraces Brisbane’s subtropical environment whilst breaking down built form and scale," the submission to the Brisbane City Council noted.

<img alt="First look: Seymour Group returns to Oxlade Drive with revised riverfront apartment plans in New Farm" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c12d84d0-bc11-4067-b46f-5bd2d786a34d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/new%20farm%20landscape.png?VersionId=YEPc2k5CAdh6aAPlu4uVpgZadh4MEfRd" />

A defining feature of the design is a deep landscaped void running through the centre of the building, creating what bureau^proberts describes as a "natural ravine" that enhances airflow, daylight penetration and resident amenity. The design report notes that the separation of the two building volumes is intended to maximise natural light, cross-ventilation and outlook while strengthening connections to the surrounding riverfront setting.

Curved balcony edges, integrated planting and extensive landscaping throughout the façade reinforce the subtropical design approach. The building's façade is softened by elevated gardens and planter beds, creating a green edge that complements the established landscape character of Oxlade Drive and neighbouring Merthyr Park.

New Farm has become one of Brisbane's most sought-after suburbs for developers delivering premium downsizer-focused apartments.

GRAYA has been particularly active in the precinct, completing both Chalk and York in recent years, while construction of Moray House, being delivered for Spyre, is now nearing completion. Architect-turned-developer Joe Adsett recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/arcilla-new-farm-by-joe-adsett-28-maxwell-street-new-farm-qld-4005">Arcilla on Maxwell Street</a>, an exclusive collection of just nine apartments.

First look: Seymour Group returns to New Farm's Oxlade Drive with riverfront apartment plans

A new residential tower will be the first piece of a broader mixed-use precinct set to reshape a prominent Newcastle West site, with local developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gwh">GWH</a> bringing its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/cambridge-quarter-newcastle-west-12-denison-street-newcastle-west-nsw-2302">Cambridge Quarter</a> vision to market.

The first release, Tempo, will introduce 87 apartments across a 24-storey tower, marking Stage 1 of the residential component of a larger urban regeneration project planned for the western end of Newcastle's city centre, encompassing the former Cambridge Hotel site.

Positioned on Denison Street, Tempo has been designed as the inaugural building within Cambridge Quarter, a precinct that will ultimately combine apartments, retail activation and revitalised public spaces including the revamping of the Cambridge Hotel.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135876 project_image_fid=368853]

The tower will comprise a mix of one, two and three-bedroom apartments, including layouts with multipurpose rooms, catering to a broad cross-section of owner-occupiers. Apartment sizes range from around 60 sqm to 192 sqm, with a number of residences oriented to capture views across Newcastle Harbour, the city skyline and coastline.

GWH has emphasised liveability in the design, with open-plan layouts extending to generous balconies and terraces. Residents will have a choice of two interior palettes, while specifications include engineered stone benchtops, SMEG appliances, full-height bathroom tiling and secure building access. Premium upgrade packages will also be available.

Multiple rooftop resident retreats will provide communal outdoor space overlooking the harbour and city, offering an elevated amenity layer above the activity of the precinct below.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135876 project_image_fid=368851]

The broader Cambridge Quarter vision extends beyond the residential tower itself. Ground-level retail activation and landscaped public areas are planned throughout the precinct, creating a walkable neighbourhood environment connected to the surrounding renewal of Newcastle West. The Cambridge Hotel is also earmarked for future redevelopment into a family-friendly hospitality venue integrated with the new precinct.

The project is strategically positioned within walking distance of Newcastle Interchange, providing access to light rail, regional rail services and direct connections to Sydney. Residents will also be close to Honeysuckle, Newcastle Harbour and the city's beaches and coastal walkways.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135876 project_image_fid=368852]

For GWH, Cambridge Quarter represents one of its most significant Newcastle developments to date. The locally based developer, which has operated in the Hunter region since 1995, describes the project as a new chapter in the ongoing transformation of Newcastle West.

GWH Executive Director Jonathan Craig said the project had been shaped by a focus on creating lasting community connections.

"We take pride in creating places that last. Spaces where people feel connected, comfortable and a genuine sense of belonging," Craig said.

"Cambridge Quarter is something we are truly proud of, a place shaped by local knowledge, built with care and designed to be part of Newcastle's next chapter."

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135876]

GWH unveils first release at landmark Cambridge Quarter precinct in Newcastle West

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/ss-projects">S&amp;S Projects</a>,&nbsp;Rainbow Bay's busiest developer,&nbsp;has officially lodged plans for the largest development in its booming local portfolio, seeking approval for a further 88 apartments on Boundary Street.

The proposal&nbsp;at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/209-213-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">209–213 Boundary Street, Coolangatta</a>,&nbsp;marks the next chapter in the developer's transformation of the southern Gold Coast beachside precinct. It will be its fifth in the area, having already delivered Flow, Awaken and Esprit, while construction continues on the 38-apartment Radia. The new project would rise 57 metres above a consolidated 1,518 sqm site, on the same street as Radia and Esprit.

&nbsp;

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cottee-parker-architects">Cottee Parker</a>, the proposed development comprises 88 two and three-bedroom apartments across a contemporary podium-and-tower form that integrates extensive landscaping from street level through to the rooftop.

The tower would be delivered above a basement and multi-level podium accommodating resident and visitor parking, with the residential component commencing from level three. The design incorporates cascading planting throughout the façade, landscaped podium edges, and deep planting zones along the Boundary Street frontage.

<img alt="First look: S&amp;S Projects lodges plans for 88-apartment wellness tower at Coolangatta's Boundary Street" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="677e6615-b5c0-4b6c-b4f9-efb14fcde1a6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/ss%20da%20pers.png?VersionId=YOnPKQm7IFXv0M5H326djEpxk80500Hi" />

A key feature of the development is its expansive rooftop wellness and recreation precinct. Plans reveal a resort-style pool deck, gymnasium, sauna, steam room, hot and cold plunge pools, rooftop terraces, barbecue areas and landscaped relaxation spaces positioned to capture views across the southern Gold Coast coastline.

The rooftop wellness focus builds on the vision S&amp;S Projects first outlined when it acquired the site for $20.25 million last year.

"We are taking every advantage to create a truly unique rooftop wellness experience with a natural feel for residents, offering stone features throughout and an underlying theme that emulates a botanical garden," S&amp;S Projects founder and director Paul Gedoun said at the time.

The proposal seeks a 57-metre building height, representing a 50 per cent uplift on the site's mapped 38-metre height limit. Planning documents argue the additional height is consistent with recently approved and emerging towers in the immediate Boundary Street and Rainbow Bay precinct.

Urbis, acting as planning consultant, said the development would provide "88 dwellings, comprising a mix of two and three-bedroom apartments, contributing to housing choice and supply within an established medium to high-rise coastal urban neighbourhood."

The scheme has undergone extensive pre-lodgement consultation with the City of Gold Coast, with the design refined following feedback relating to architectural expression, landscaping, traffic access and podium treatment.

<img alt="S&amp;S" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0a2d70fd-62ac-4b83-97c6-b798fc1243dd" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-05%20at%209.16.31%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=yHmghUwKM3IVGpBktQU1mE.0Lpf3WimG" />

The architectural team is led by Brisbane-based Cottee Parker, one of Australia's most active residential design studios, with landscape architecture by Dunn + Moran. The consultant team also includes ADG Engineers, Windtech and Acoustic Works.

S&amp;S Projects has become one of the most influential private developers operating on the southern Gold Coast. Since entering Rainbow Bay in 2022, the company has assembled a portfolio exceeding $1 billion in end value, establishing itself as a key player in the area's evolution into a premium apartment destination. Pezet Matheson will again handle the sales for S&amp;S.

Coolangatta is entering another wave of apartment development, following the delivery of several prominent residential projects in recent years.

John Kearney's Immerse Projects will launch&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/kaiya-kirra-beach-5-haig-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Kaiya on Haig Street</a>&nbsp;soon, meanwhile, Palm Beach-based Sherpa Property Group is preparing to bring its debut Coolangatta development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-viver-87-griffith-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Flourish Viveré</a>, to market later this year, subject to approvals.

First look: S&S Projects proposes 88-apartment wellness tower at Coolangatta's Boundary Street

A landmark former orphanage site in Surrey Hills could be transformed into a new residential community under plans lodged by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/antipodean-land-developments">Antipodean Land Developments</a> that would deliver 76 apartments and townhouses while restoring some of the suburb's most significant heritage buildings.

The burgeoninng Melbourne-based developer has submitted plans for the 9,158 sqm site at 1 Kent Road and 24 Durham Road, home to the former St Joseph's Home for Destitute Children, a historic institutional complex dating back to the late 19th century. The proposal seeks to adaptively reuse several heritage buildings while introducing two new four-storey residential buildings set within extensive landscaped grounds.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/woods-bagot">Woods Bagot</a> and Kerstin Thompson Architects, the project has been conceived as a contemporary residential village embedded within a restored heritage precinct. The development team describes the design approach as "The Village in the Garden," with new buildings positioned among mature landscaping by OCULUS and significant heritage structures.

<img alt="First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="44ec8c1b-c0b6-44ae-859e-5811b3e6a023" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Untitled%20design%20%281%29.png?VersionId=p.p1_KFh4iQoV4nisdnPfQBAsWNi7m79" />

The proposal would deliver 76 dwellings comprising a mix of apartments and duplex-style residences, significantly increasing housing supply on one of the largest privately held residential landholdings in Surrey Hills. The development includes 127 car spaces, 24 bicycle spaces and more than 1,000 sqm of communal amenity, with the existing chapel building earmarked for conversion into resident facilities.

According to the planning submission, the project centres on the restoration and adaptive reuse of the site's most significant heritage assets, including the original c.1889 St Joseph's building, the chapel designed by architect Augustus Andrew Fritsch, and the historic brick perimeter walls and entry gates. The proposal also incorporates the retention of other contributory buildings including the former infirmary and school building.

Tract Consultants, in the planning report accompanying the application, said the scheme had been shaped through extensive heritage analysis and design development.

"The shared vision for the Site by the project team has culminated in a scheme which successfully breathes life back into a historic site while delivering upon the objectives of Victoria's Housing Statement in a carefully curated and contextually responsive manner."

<img alt="First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7263b7d8-95ea-400f-9531-6ca7d22c3c33" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Untitled%20design%20%282%29.png?VersionId=4cR1tiWOsDpgxEOwZi5vVFcyvvOsYkIE" />

The proposal is being assessed under Victoria's Significant Residential Development with Affordable Housing pathway. As part of the application, three per cent of the project's residential development cost would be contributed to the Social Housing Growth Fund. The development would also provide a diverse mix of one, two and three-bedroom residences targeting a broader range of buyers than typically found in Surrey Hills' detached housing market.

Sustainability initiatives include an anticipated 66 per cent BESS score, natural cross-ventilation to 80 per cent of apartments, 28 per cent deep soil landscaping and a canopy cover outcome exceeding local planning requirements. The proposal also sets aside more than 1,083 sqm for communal indoor and outdoor resident amenity spaces.

<img alt="First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="33fad46f-fe26-4d0a-acfd-6b776e1c6a3d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Untitled%20design.png?VersionId=D9F6WVSyYCtGvSUmith35LRp6R7PQkw_" />

Planning documents describe the property as one of the largest underutilised residential sites in Surrey Hills, arguing it presents a rare opportunity to introduce "missing middle" housing in an established inner-eastern suburb while preserving and revitalising a significant heritage precinct.

Antipodean Land Developments has built a reputation for design-focused residential projects across Melbourne, particularly in the medium-density sector. Previous developments include Neighbourhood in Brunswick East, delivered with Breathe Architecture, and Balfe Park Lane, designed by Kerstin Thompson Architects.

They've been very active in site acquisition as they build out their future development pipeline. They recently launched Thornubury House, 45 apartments above a mix of commercial, retail, and food and beverage tenancies, and have plans for a boutique project in Fitzroy and another <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/vic/antipodean-plan-apartments-for-deepdenes-missing-middle-on-whitehorse-road">"missing middle" project</a> on Deepdene's Whitehorse Road.

First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills

Population

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Any moves to greatly increase the population of northern Australian by 2060 could have a devastating impact on the local environment without long-term careful planning by all tiers of government.
That’s the finding of <a href="https://tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/07293682.2019.1620302" target="_blank" title="The consequences of three urbanisation scenarios for northern Australia">research</a> that looked at several scenarios to increase the population of the north to 5 million people.
That’s an extra 3.7 million people, or an almost four-fold increase in the current population of northern Australia.
But, given the potential impact of climate change on northern Australia, we could see population movement the other way as people in the north head south.
Northern exposure
The region of Australia above the Tropic of Capricorn covers an area of 3,500,000km² – about 45% of Australia’s landmass – yet it houses only 5% of its population.
Proponents of development envisage extreme population growth because of the region’s growing geopolitical importance.
Northern Australia has <a href="https://adcforum.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/NDS14_report_web_sample.pdf" target="_blank" title="NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT Creating the future Australia">already been identified</a> as a “gateway to Asia”.
It’s also <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt24h8n3" title="The Nature of Northern Australia: Its natural values, ecological processes and future prospects">described</a> as the largest intact “savanna remaining on Earth […] with a rich biodiversity of international significance”.
Current federal government planning for northern Australia is in the <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/data-and-publications/our-north-our-future-white-paper-on-developing-northern-australia">Our North, Our Future</a> white paper, released in 2015.
The report adopts a pro-development stance, seeing the north as a place of economic bounty and opportunity.
While it is mute on issues of settlement patterns, there are statements that allude to the government’s support for significant urbanisation:
We need to lay the foundations for rapid population growth and put the north on a trajectory to reach a population of four to five million by 2060.
The white paper also refers to “the development of major population centres of more than a million people”. Such cities would be around six times the size of the current largest northern city of Townsville, <a href="https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/UCL303004?opendocument">population about 180,000</a>.
Three plans for growth
Given the existing city planning documents do not countenance the scale of population growth projected in the white paper, we developed three scenarios for how the federal government could distribute this northern Australian population of 5 million by 2060.
<ul>
<li>Scenario 1: Growth</li>
</ul>
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298027/original/file-20191022-56220-fspunk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298027/original/file-20191022-56220-fspunk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Scenario 1: Growth. Julian Bolleter, Author provided
Economic and lifestyle factors concentrate the increased population in the four dominant northern cities of Darwin, Cairns, Townsville and Mackay. Each would have populations of more than a million by 2060.
<ul>
<li>Scenario 2: Decentralised Growth</li>
</ul>
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298028/original/file-20191022-56198-16qw0fx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298028/original/file-20191022-56198-16qw0fx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Scenario 2: Decentralised Growth. Julian Bolleter, Author provided
The populations of Port Hedland, Broome, Kununurra, Darwin, Cairns, Bowen, Townsville and McKay will each increase by 462,000 people.
<ol>
<li>Scenario 3: Concentrated Growth</li>
</ol>
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298029/original/file-20191022-56242-1q6fv76.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298029/original/file-20191022-56242-1q6fv76.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Scenario 3: Concentrated Growth. Julian Bolleter, Author provided
Economic opportunities see northern Australia’s growing population concentrated in Darwin, which would grow by 1.5 million people by 2060.
This figure is in line with the Australian government’s vision of northern cities with “more than a million people”.
The fate of the north
Irrespective of the scenario, our findings show population growth will not be good for the local environment without any overarching long-term planning frameworks to steer urbanisation.
This is particularly the case for scenarios 1 and 3 where the required increase in urban area either outstrips, or is only just commensurate with, the availability of cleared land adjacent to Darwin, Cairns and Townsville.
As such, population growth at the scale proposed by the white paper could result in substantial destruction, degradation and fragmentation of peri-urban ecosystems – where urban meets rural – by urban development and expanding road networks.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298034/original/file-20191022-56228-1mcel56.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298034/original/file-20191022-56228-1mcel56.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Scenario 1: Growth for Darwin. Julian Bolleter, Author provided
In Darwin’s case, in Scenario 1 the additional 925km² of urbanisation required would sprawl south of the city in a corridor to as far as Humpty Doo (1) and down to Acacia Hills (2).
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298033/original/file-20191022-56215-1cto1wd.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298033/original/file-20191022-56215-1cto1wd.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Scenario 1: Growth for Townsville. Julian Bolleter, Author provided
In Townsville, in Scenario 1 for growth, the additional 925km² of urbanisation would result in sprawling along the coast and around the existing centres of Giru (1) and Woodstock (2), and around Mount Surround (3).
While Townsville has 957km² of cleared land and theoretically could just accommodate this growth, it is likely to cause extensive damage to the local environment through land degradation and fragmentation by urban development.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298035/original/file-20191022-56224-1294zua.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298035/original/file-20191022-56224-1294zua.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Scenario 3: Concentrated Growth for Darwin. Julian Bolleter, Author provided
In Darwin, with Scenario 3 and concentrated growth, the urban expansion required for the city is 1,500km². This would dwarf the city’s 296km² of developable land and result in substantial clearing of remnant vegetation.
Proper planning required
Clearly then, if the scale of population growth envisaged in the white paper occurs without any comprehensive planning, the result will be harmful for the north.
To avoid this fate we need a bipartisan settlement strategy (most closely resembling Scenario 2) to steer the urbanisation of northern Australia.
Policymakers and planners should develop this strategy based on a comprehensive landscape analysis of northern Australia. If the scale of population growth envisaged in the white paper occurs without such planning, the result will be ruinous for one of the world’s last great wildernesses.
But the federal government should also decide whether a population of 5 million in the north is something we should aspire to at all.
If the worst climate change projections are borne out, we could end up with migration from cities such as Darwin to cities further south, even into the southern states.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/125063/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
Julian Bolleter<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/julian-bolleter-292111"></a>, Deputy Director, Australian Urban Design Research Centre, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-western-australia-1067" target="_blank">University of Western Australia</a>.
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/you-cant-boost-australias-north-to-5-million-people-without-a-proper-plan-125063" target="_blank">original article</a>.
</body></html>

j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

You can’t boost Australia’s north to 5 million people without a proper plan: Julian Bolleter

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The Sunshine Coast property market is heavily reliant on population increases, according to the latest Herron Todd White (HTW) residential report. 
The report suggests the Sunshine Coast has traditionally been one of the fastest growing regions in Australia.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/9/25/sunshine%20coast%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/25/sunshine%20coast%201.jpg" alt="">
"When we then look at the volume of residential property sales taking place on the Sunshine Coast in recent years, the correlation between population growth and sale volumes can be seen," the valuation firm said. 
"This graph shows that in 2003 when the population spiked, sale volumes were highest, then in 2011 when the growth rate bottomed out, sale volumes followed accordingly."
A two bedroom beachfront apartment in Caloundra has been sold for $450,000 (pictured below). 
Located at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-unit-qld-caloundra-131641478" target="_blank">3/19 Bulcock Beach Esplanade</a>, the apartment comes with two bedrooms, open plan living areas with balcony, kitchen and two secure garages. 
It's close to the Caloundra CBD with just 200 metres from restaurants, cafés, and parks.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/26/caloudra.jpg" alt="">
A four bedroom house with panoramic views in Maroochy River has been sold for $830,000.
The hilltop home at<a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-qld-maroochy+river-130623542" target="_blank"> 18 Valdora Road</a> (pictured below) comes with four bedrooms, open plan living area, gourmet kitchen and resort style pool.
Other features include BOSE surround sound system, alarm system and ample water storage. 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/26/maroochy.jpg" alt="">
"It’s pretty hard to say if any one area is attracting more out of towners than others" the valuation firm added. 
"Most of our locations on the Coast seem to be having their fair share of new arrivals into their communities though it would be fair to say that suburbs along the coastline would be top of the list.
"Given the increased demand for housing, we mainly the upgrade to the Bruce Highway. Travel times have been lessened and the affordability in the area has made it very popular." 
The inner rural residential ring around the township has increased in demand as have some of the character houses in town.
As a result, some new businesses have been opening up in a number of industries.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/9/25/sunshine%20coast%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/25/sunshine%20coast%202.jpg" alt="">
The report notes the increase in population of the Sunshine Coast assists in underpinning property values. The issue then lies in jobs and infrastructure.
"It is good that the University Hospital is not at full capacity, the new airport runway is yet to be finished and we have a new town centre, however just driving around the Coast, you do feel that there are more and more people on the roads. It used to be in holiday periods but now feels like it’s all the time.
"The question is whether those roads and other services will keep up with the growth," the valuation firm concluded. 
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Sunshine Coast population growth assists in underpinning property values: HTW residential 

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<div>There's quite a bit been said on the apparent mass exodus from Sydney.</div>
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<div>Again, there's a strong element truth to this story.</div>
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<div>But it's equally important not to take away the wrong visual image from this. </div>
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<div>The fact is, New South Wales always loses people interstate, and it always will, largely to Brisbane, south east Queensland, and even to Melbourne.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In reality, though, the numbers leaving the state on a net basis were dramatically lower in the 2011-2016 Census period than they were in the preceding five years. And they were much, much lower than they were in the five years before that, with net interstate migration tracking at way under the half the rate of seen from 2001 to 2006.</div>
 
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To the regions... Now it's true that more people, especially Baby Boomers, have been taking their newly-boosted Sydney equity to move out to regional New South Wales, such as to the Hunter Valley, or to the South Coast.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, this has been offset by a marked <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2017/09/population-growth" target="_blank">increase in immigration to Sydney</a>, as migrants seek employment opportunities. The harbour city of Greater Sydney is growing at a faster pace than previously, probably now at somewhere close to 100,000 per annum, which is well ahead of the decade average.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This will presumably continue for as long as Sydney continues to create <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2017/09/jobs-boom-to-continue" target="_blank">record job openings</a>. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The net impact of this dynamic - high immigration and resident Sydneysiders moving outwards or interstate - is that Sydney has a substantial foreign-born population (which now comprises more Chinese-born residents than British-born, a remarkable statistic in its own right). There's plenty of disingenuous 'analysis' of the capital city economies, focusing on resources exports and ignoring services exports, for example, while also ignoring Australia's record levels of household wealth and the comparative improvement in standard of living for so many immigrants. The Productivity Commission ("PC") has delivered another long report on the importance of the large cities to Australian wealth, and why services industries and employment growth fare best within them, in part due to proximity to other businesses and labour supply. The fact is that over the most recent year Sydney (38.6 per cent) and Melbourne (28.4 per cent) have unsurprisingly dominated contributions to Australia's GDP growth, according to analysis by Terry Rawnsley of SGS Economics &amp; Planning. Challenges abound
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<div> </div>
<div>All of the above having been said, it's reasonable expect to see interstate migration to south east Queensland accelerating again over the next five years. One of the most noteworthy challenges identified by the PC is that about 60 per cent of new jobs are created within 10 kilometres of the Central Business Districts, but housing supply in those locations is not keeping up with this pace of growth by about half. The PC found that most jobs that can be reached within 45 minutes by car are located in the inner city, while on the city fringe this is the case for fewer that 20 per cent of jobs.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>By 2050 an additional 10.8 million people are projected to be living in Australia's capital cities, as well as an extra 2.4 million people in the non-capital city areas. </div>
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The population exodus from Sydney: Pete Wargent

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<div>The 2016 Census showed that Australia still has an ageing population, and the number of deaths continues to rise to record highs, in turn meaning that the natural increase in the population has been slowing. </div>
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<div>The ageing of the population has been combated through the immigration programme, which is largely - if not exclusively - tilted towards younger migrants into Australia. While new government figures show that 457 visa issuance is falling, student visas are recording double digit rates of growth, and now sit at the highest level on record. The rising tide of international students will largely impact the inner suburbs of Melbourne and Sydney. </div>
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<div>And annual net overseas migration has really picked up the pace over the past six quarters, up by +30 per cent to +231,890 in the March 2017 quarter. </div>
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<div>This surge in net overseas migration has pushed the annual national rate of growth in the estimated resident population back up to +1.6 per cent or +389,072. </div>
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<div>Population growth in the seasonally strong March quarter was particularly stark in 2017 at +126,138. </div>
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<div>Headcount growth remains a bit below the rate of growth seen during the headiest of the mining boom migration years, but is nevertheless very strong.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Apartment glut picked off</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Moreover, there's a concentration issue afoot, with immigrants overwhelmingly heading to three main regions: Sydney, Melbourne, and south-east Queensland. </div>
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<div>Internally, migration continues to take folks away from Sydney (nothing new there, it's been happening for decades). Some Sydneysiders are taking their boosted equity out to regional New South Wales - especially to the South Coast and to the Hunter - and others are heading north to Queensland. Western Australia, Northern Territory, and South Australia continue to lose residents at a concerning rate, with internal migrants largely headed to Melbourne (for jobs) or south-east Queensland (for climate, lifestyle...and, well, hopefully a job). A smattering of interstate migrants are also bound for Hobart and Canberra. </div>
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<div>The net result has been to send Victoria's annual population growth steaming up to a gold-rush-like +149,374 or +2.43 per cent, which is a staggering rate of growth, and renders predictions of a Melbourne dwelling oversupply meaningless, at least until population growth slows. </div>
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<div>From a year earlier, growth in the estimated resident population has also accelerated very strongly in New South Wales (+123,296) and Queensland (+75,372). The capital cities account for the great bulk of the population growth in the two most populous states, and somewhat less so in Queensland's case. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Annual population growth appears to have steadied in Western Australia, after some downward revisions to previous estimates. </div>
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<div>Build, and they may come</div>
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<div>With the ageing of the population and an accelerating 'death bust', if that's not too dramatic a term, growth in headcount has become much more focused on net immigration than natural increase. </div>
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<div>It's interesting to note that the sharp increase in the estimated resident population over the past 18 months has largely impacted the apartment construction hotspots of Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>A high number of apartment completions are expected in 2017, yet with the estimated resident population increasing by more than 126,000 in the first three months of the calendar year alone, the assumed apartment glut may not deliver the jolt previously anticipated. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.
His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.
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Build and they may come: Pete Wargent on the headcount and apartment glut speculation

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GUEST OBSERVER
Population estimates
Population: Australia’s population expanded by 389,072 people over the year to March 2017 to 24,511,773 people. Overall, Australia’s annual population growth rate rose from 1.553 per cent to 1.613 per cent – the fastest population growth in three years. 
Big quarterly increase: Australia's population grew by 126,138 people over the March quarter - the biggest quarterly increase in nine years.
Victoria leads: Over the past year population growth was the strongest in Victoria (2.43 per cent, the fastest population growth since 1960), followed by the ACT (1.78 per cent), NSW (1.60 per cent), Queensland (1.56 per cent), Western Australia (0.72 per cent), South Australia (0.599 per cent), Tasmania (0.598 per cent) and the Northern Territory (0.14 per cent).
The population figures are especially important for companies exposed to home building and consumer spending.
What does it all mean?
In Victoria, population growth is the fastest in 57 years. In NSW, population growth is the fastest in eight years. And In Tasmania you have to go back six years to find a faster rate of population growth. In fact in all states and territories other than South Australia and Northern Territory, population growth is lifting.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/28/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-28%20at%208.14.49%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/09/28/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-28%20at%208.14.49%20AM.png" alt="">
In some regions, it is natural increase – more babies being born (less the number of deaths) – that is driving population growth. In other regions it is immigration. But overall the stronger rate of population growth is boosting spending, demand for infrastructure, demand for homes, and overall economic growth.
Businesses need to dissect the figures and drill down further to find out which regions are growing the faster, Because those regions present some of the best opportunities
What do the figures show?
Population Statistics:
Australia’s population expanded by 389,072 people over the year to March 2017 to 24,511,773 people. Overall, Australia’s annual population growth rate rose from 1.553 per cent to 1.613 per cent – the fastest population growth in three years
Over the past year population growth was the strongest in Victoria (2.43 per cent, the fastest population growth since 1960), followed by the ACT (1.78 per cent), NSW (1.60 per cent), Queensland (1.56 per cent), Western Australia (0.72 per cent), South Australia (0.599 per cent), Tasmania (0.598 per cent) and the Northern Territory (0.14 per cent).
Australia’s population grew by 126,138 people over the March quarter – the biggest quarterly increase in nine years. 
A total of 231,900 people migrated to Australia over year to March, up from 209,000 in the year to December and the biggest annual gain in four years. Still, growth is still down the peak of 315,700 migrants in the year to December 2008.
There were 302,500 babies born in the past year – just shy of the record growth of 312,200 babies born in the year to December 2012.
Population growth in Victoria is 19.7 per cent above the decade average and population growth in NSW is 14.3 per cent above the decade average. In Tasmania population growth is 8.1 per cent higher than the decade average.
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Why is the data important?
Demographic Statistics are issued by the Bureau of Statistics each quarter. The figures include estimates of births, deaths, in-bound and out-bound migration movements and estimates of population change by State.
What are the implications?
There are more people coming to Australia and more babies being born. Overall, population is rising, adding to demand for a raft of businesses across a range of industry sectors. 
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The lift in the growth of the population and the physical population numbers, lifts demand for infrastructure, thus boosting the outlook for builders, building material companies and construction companies. 
While economic growth is poised to lift over the coming year, CommSec believes that cash rates will remain unchanged until late in 2018. 
Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>.
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Biggest quarterly lift in population in 9 years driving building boost: Craig James

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/78097/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
The latest statistics show Australia's population growth in the last decade has been significantly higher than in other developed countries.
Population growth has profound impacts on Australian life, and sorting myths from facts can be difficult. This is the second article in our series, Is Australia Full?, which aims to help inform a wide-ranging and often emotive debate.
Population change has long been a topic of public debate in Australia, periodically escalating into controversy.
It is inextricably linked to debates about immigration levels, labour force needs, capital city congestion and housing costs, refugee intakes, economic growth in country areas and northern Australia, the “big versus smaller” Australia debate, and environmental pressures.
Views about the rate of population growth in Australia are numerous and mixed. At one end of the spectrum are those who are vehemently opposed to further population increases; at the other end are supporters of substantially higher population growth and a “very big” Australia.
Logically, population debates usually quote Australia’s demographic statistics. But there is value in comparing our population growth in the international context.
<h2>Average growth rates compared globally</h2>
Although growth rates have fluctuated considerably from year to year, statistics just released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) show that Australia’s population grew by 3.75 million between 2006 and 2016. This indicates an average annual growth rate of 1.7%.
As the chart below shows, this was quite high compared to other countries and global regions. Over the decade, other English-speaking countries such as New Zealand, Canada and the US all experienced growth rates lower than Australia’s. The world’s more developed countries in aggregate grew by an annual average of 0.3%.
The world’s population as a whole increased by an average of 1.2% per year.
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According to the UN Population Division, Australia ranked 90th out of 233 countries in terms of population growth rate over the decade. The countries or territories with higher growth rates were mostly less developed countries, particularly in Africa, and the oil-rich Gulf states. The only developed countries with faster rates of growth were Singapore, Luxembourg and Israel.
<h2>Why Australia’s population growth rate is higher</h2>
There are two main reasons for Australia’s high growth.
Net overseas migration (immigration minus emigration) is one major factor. It has been generating a little over half (56%) of population growth in recent years.
Demand for immigration – to settle permanently, work in Australia, or study here for a few years – is high, and there are many opportunities for people to move to Australia. In the 2015-16 financial year about 190,000 visas were granted to migrants and 19,000 for humanitarian and refugee entry. Temporary migrants included 311,000 student visas, 215,000 working holidaymaker visas and 86,000 temporary work (skilled) 457 visas.
Over the last five years, ABS figures show that immigration has averaged about 480,000 per year and emigration about 280,000. This puts annual net overseas migration at around 200,000.
This is high in international terms. UN Population Division data for the 2010-15 periodreveals Australia had the 17th-highest rate of net overseas migration of any country.
But it is not just overseas migration driving Australia’s population growth. High natural increase (the number of births minus the number of deaths) also makes a substantial contribution. Natural increase has been responsible for a little under half (44%) of population growth in recent years (about 157,000 per year).
Australia has a relatively healthy fertility rate, which lately has averaged almost 1.9 babies per woman. We also enjoy one of the highest life expectancies in the world.
This combination of an extended history of net overseas migration gains, a long baby boom and a healthy fertility rate has resulted in Australia being less advanced in the population ageing transition than many other developed countries.
In particular, relatively large numbers of people are in the peak childbearing ages. This means that even if migration fell immediately to zero the population would still increase. Demographers call this age structure effect “population momentum”.
<h2>Whether Australia’s population is growing too fast</h2>
While Australia’s population growth rate is high in a global context, this does not necessarily mean its population is growing too fast. It all depends on your point of view.
It is important to stress that the overall population growth rate is just one aspect of Australia’s demography. A more comprehensive debate about the nation’s demographic trajectory should consider a broad range of issues, such as:
<ul>
<li>
population age structure (the numbers of people in different age groups);
</li>
<li>
the health and wellbeing of a rapidly growing population at the highest ages;
</li>
<li>
population distribution across the country;
</li>
<li>
economic growth and development;
</li>
<li>
the contributions of temporary workers and overseas students;
</li>
<li>
appropriate infrastructure for the needs of the population; and
</li>
<li>
environmental management and per-capita carbon emissions.
</li>
</ul>
Progress on issues such as healthy ageing, economic development,and environmental management depend on appropriate strategies to deal with these challenges. Total population numbers will often be relevant to the discussion, but they are only part of the equation.
Tom Wilson is a Principal Research Fellow at Charles Darwin University and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/tom-wilson-1717" target="_blank">here</a>.
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How babies and migrants have contributed to Australia’s population growth: Tom Wilson

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/81902/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
In Sydney and Melbourne, the squeeze is on. Population is booming; house prices are still rising; roads and trains are congested.
Australian governments generally have ignored the benefits of relating metropolitan and regional planning.
However, some state governments are now investigating more integrated sectoral and spatial planning strategies, initially through shifting public sector jobs to regional centres. 
In particular, improved regional rail connections do work. Already rail investments have brought Ballarat, Geelong and other regional centres closer in travel time to Melbourne than many outer suburbs, and this trend will continue. 
Sydney has similar opportunities with regional rail connections, but has not yet exercised them. Rail services to and from Gosford, Newcastle and Wollongong have improved little over recent decades. 
Rail bypasses clogged arteries
For decades, policymakers’ preferred solution to congestion has been adding and widening freeways. But promises of faster travel times and freer movement have been illusory. New roads and freeway lanes induce more traffic and will provide short-lived solutions in our biggest cities.
These cities are the main drivers of Australia’s national economy, attracting advanced business service professionals and knowledge providers. 
Access to high-value jobs, transport arteries that function well, and better-managed population growth will become critically important to urban economies as these cities move towards populations of 8 million people. 
In Sydney and Melbourne, critics are claiming that major new road projects such as WestConnex and the Western Distributor will increase central city traffic congestion, particularly for work-related journeys. 
Victoria proves regional rail works
Contrast that with the success of regional rail development. Victoria has invested several billion dollars in a series of projects. These have raised maximum regional train speeds to provincial cities to 160kph, increased reliability, provided new and much faster trains and transformed frequency.
The 119km peak-hour trip from Ballarat to Melbourne before these investments took two hours, with four trains a day on offer. Today 22 daily trains operate in each direction between Melbourne and Ballarat. Boarding the 4.33pm from Southern Cross delivers passengers to Ballarat 65 minutes later. 
From Geelong, the transformation has been even greater. The recently completed Regional Rail Link runs 55 daily trains each way. The project was the first to be approved by Infrastructure Australia, backed by A$3.8 billion in state and Commonwealth funding.
Patronage boom calls for more work
These upgrades, however, have become victims of their own success. Some lines have recorded a 300% increase in patronage. Similar increases are projected for the next decade. 
Remarkably, within two years of opening, patronage growth has already reached capacity on the inner part of the Regional Rail Link (which segregates metropolitan from country trains for travel to and from central Melbourne). There is little or no capacity for extra trains to be run in peak times. 
Trains are becoming ever more crowded. Long-distance commuters have valued their ability to work, read or sleep on these trains, especially during their homeward journeys. They must now compete for seats with others from rapidly expanding western suburbs, which are yet to gain their own suburban train services. 
A short-term fix would create longer trains of eight carriages instead of six. A medium-term fix would electrify and provide separate services to the part of the Geelong line that serves the new dormitory suburbs. 
These changes need to be complemented by more frequent and better co-ordinated feeder bus services to stations. In addition, easily accessed large commuter carparks need to be built on vacant land on the Melbourne side of the major regional centres.
In the longer term, the answer lies in providing more multiple tracks to fully segregate suburban and regional trains in suburban areas. Providing robust double-line railways in each corridor will prevent the cascade effect that occurs when trains delay each other on single lines. 
The completion of level-crossing removals will also allow higher operating speeds and safer operations. Trains will be able to move progressively to maximum speeds of 200kph where feasible rather than 160kph. 
Regional cities must avoid past mistakes
These rail investments will further promote population growth in regional cities. Already, regionally developed services, more affordable housing stock and less frantic lifestyles are acting as attractors.
It is essential to integrate the planning of major regional transport projects with spatial planning to avoid the undesirable results of fragmented policy. 
Some regional centres are repeating the worst mistakes of metropolitan low-density urban sprawl by expanding on greenfield sites far from town centres. Modelling of Victorian regional towns has shown that they contain in-fill opportunities to at least double existing populations and provide a range of affordable housing options. 
To maintain liveability for expected high population growth, heavy rail investment is vital. Carefully targeted regional rail investment can shrink distance, provide access to more jobs and better lifestyles, and contribute to wider housing choices. 
This investment is a critical requirement for continued prosperity in Australia’s largest urban centres.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/michael-buxton-1381" target="_blank">Michael Buxton</a> is professor of Environment and Planning, RMIT University and author for <a href="https://theconversation.com/au" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>.
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This is how regional rail can help ease our big cities’ commuter crush

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/78183/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
Considering all the aspects of life in Australia that are affected by population, it's remarkable that the nation doesn't have a national policy on it.
Population growth has profound impacts on Australian life, and sorting myths from facts can be difficult. This is the first article in our series, Is Australia Full?, which aims to help inform a wide-ranging and often emotive debate.
Australia lacks an overarching population policy or strategy. Over the years, multiple inquiries have recommended such a policy. Population policies the world over typically focus on births and migration.
As part of post-war reconstruction, Australia adopted a 2% population growth target. Mass immigration was a defining feature, and couples were called on to populate or perish. Immigration was successful, but women were big losers in the push for births.
The 1975 National Population Inquiry proved a significant moment in Australian demography. The inquiry found that Australia should not seek to influence population, but should anticipate and respond.
Population policy was revisited in the 1990s with the National Population Council. Its 1994 report found no optimal population size for Australia, but again called for a responsive population policy of preparedness.
Interest in sustainable population policy was renewed in 2010 following Kevin Rudd’s infamous endorsement of a “big Australia”. We even had a minister for population, Tony Burke, for about six months until the portfolio was expanded. Population was subsequently dropped from any ministerial title.
After an exhaustive inquiry, A Sustainable Population Strategy for Australia was released in 2011. This stopped short of recommending a population policy but removed any option of population limits. Change felt possible in shifting the narrative to a proactive endeavour concerning population matters, particularly evident in the National Urban Policy.
Despite such inquiries and recommendations to adopt a population policy, governments have so far resisted. Unsuccessful attempts at population policy can be understood in terms of difficulties in gaining political support and concerns about coercion.
But national population policy need not be coercive – unlike, for example, in India or China. Instead, it can be a series of targets and connected policy domains with oversight.
Presently, the policy landscape is disjointed. Parenting leave, family and childcare payments, and immigration are each somewhat responsive to population changes, but not prepared. Family payments have been shown not to increase birth rates.
<h2>Births, deaths, migration – and taxes</h2>
The intergenerational reports have been our only glimpse of responsiveness and preparedness. But these have increasingly been criticised for their political tone. Who could forget the Challenge of Change campaign?
What we know is that Australia’s population continues to age, so among the nation’s pressing issues is fewer taxpayers. The total age-related dependency ratio, of people aged over and under working age relative to the working-aged population, was 52 per 100 people in 2016.
While the child-dependency rate (0-14 year olds) is higher than the aged-dependency rate (people 65 and over), the rate of people aged less than 15 has steadily declined as the population aged 65 and over has driven increases in the so-called dependency burden.
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The relative increase in people older than working age is increasing pressure on the economy and government budgets. While government spending on young people is substantial, the highest per person spending is among people aged 65 and over.
A robust workforce contributing income tax and services is essential to ensure current lifestyles are afforded to the young while also sustaining the public spending necessary for people over 65 years who have over their lives contributed to the nation.
With birth rates low and deaths increasing, natural increase is no longer driving Australia’s population. Immigration is increasingly relied on to offset the ageing of the workforce. Over half (54%) of Australia’s population growth is from net overseas migration.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/05/xdgfchgjhjn.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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<h2>Preparing for an older population</h2>
In a 2013 United Nations survey, the Australian government reported concerns about population ageing, a desire to increase the “too low” birth rate, but satisfaction with the level of net overseas migration. Interestingly, a preference for migration away from cities was also cited.
From current policy and discourse, you would not know these views were held. Most Australians also report a preference for the level of immigration to remain the same or be increased, contrary to sentiments we often hear.
Australia has time to prepare for, and make opportunities of, the challenges of an ageing population. Some countries are facing tough decisions now and it is interesting to watch the politics play out. What Japan, China and Germany show is that we need to take action now.
Insightful guides are in place already. South Australia has had a population strategy since 2004. Tasmania recently adopted one.
These state strategies focus on growth to curb economic downturn. What is important in these two cases is that both emphasise policy portfolio linkages, as well as evidence and reporting against targets without coercive measures.
<h2>What is a sensible approach to population policy?</h2>
A renewed, earnest and transparent population conversation is needed. With ever more reliance on immigration, we must go beyond the unhelpful pro-immigration versus pro-nationalism debate to consider our population prospects.
The key question is: how can Australia make opportunities of its demographic challenges?
Australia has the potential to be a global leader in innovative markets and research and development. An ageing population provides an interesting market opening; we just need to be smart about it. Without careful consideration, Australia will be merely a bystander in the increasingly competitive global market.
Policy connectedness should exist between portfolios. These include: health; housing; education, skills and training; employment; infrastructure; regional development; water and energy; environment; and migrant settlement.
We can invest more effectively in young people – our future workforce and economic lifeblood – if we consider a life-course approach to population dynamics. Family friendly, gender-equal workplaces will go a long way to ease the pressures of having children. Integral to this is affordable and accessible child care.
And establishing a ministerial portfolio overseeing population strategy would be a good start.
Liz Allen is a Demographer, ANU Centre for Social Research and Methods, Australian National University and author for The Conversation. she can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/liz-allen-10193" target="_blank">here</a>.
 
 
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Australia doesn’t have a population policy – why? Liz Allen

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/80604/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
A recent episode of ABC TV’s Ask the Doctor pointed to poor urban planning as a major culprit in worsening obesity rates and associated lifestyle diseases such as diabetes. The show highlighted suburbs without footpaths, fresh-food outlets or exercise opportunities.
Built environments are important contributors to our health and wealth. Urban planners strive to create the best environments, but many describe the results as “obesogenic” – that is, places where fast-food outlets abound and there are few opportunities to be sufficiently physically active.
Increasing access to health data, along with the powerful analytical tools needed to interpret these data, provides an opportunity to develop a real fix for this worsening situation.
How far planners have come
Urban planners have come a long way in supporting healthy and active living. Internationally, this goes back to the late 1940s, when the World Health Organisation (WHO) defined health as much more than the absence of disease.
The subsequent and ongoing development of the WHO Healthy Cities movement, the declaration of the Ottawa Charter, and the publication of the social determinants of health and the related settlement map, further reinforced the importance of urban planning and design in creating places that support health and wellbeing.
Recently, the UN Sustainable Development Goals cemented this focus on healthy built environments.
In Australia, this global recognition has brought built environment and health professionals into a closer working relationship. For example:
The Victorian government requires local councils to prepare municipal health plans.
The New South Wales government policy acknowledges the built environment as a key determinant of health.
In Western Australia, the longitudinal RESIDE project traces the health impacts on residents of the Liveable Neighbourhoods Community Design Guidelines.
In Queensland, a Healthy Futures Commission has been legislated to tackle chronic disease by adopting healthy lifestyles.
The National Heart Foundation has made an impressive set of contributions to healthy built environments.
The Planning Institute of Australia has spearheaded interdisciplinary collaborations. Most recently, it issued a statement supporting healthy built environments.
How health data can help
Despite this progress, some health indicators continue to deteriorate. The numbers of children either overweight or obese is a global public heath epidemic. In Australia, around 25% of children are overweight or obese.
This trend is worrying, as obesity in childhood and adulthood is strongly linked.
Being overweight or obese is a significant risk factor for developing type 2 diabetes. Globally, more than 420 million people have type 2 diabetes, and these numbers have quadrupled since 1980. In Western Sydney alone, 60% of adults are overweight or obese.
But increasing access to health data and more readily available analytical tools offer new opportunities to tackle ever-growing rates of obesity.
The Heart Foundation has published comprehensive design guidelines and a website linking research evidence to good practice.
In NSW, the Healthy Urban Development Checklist assists health professionals to comment on the extent to which urban planning proposals will support health. In Victoria, Community Indicators link practitioners with communities to create healthy places.
Other tools include Healthy Built Environment Indicators and the NSW Integrated Planning and Reporting Framework to get physical activity and healthy eating into local council community strategic plans.
Beyond these approaches, geographical information systems (GIS) and other analytical tools can help tackle obesity. South Australia’s Department for Health and Ageing used GIS to plot gaps in built environment facilities and resources that impact childhood obesity. One study established a link between obesity and access to fast-food outlets.
Another initiative provided insights into the spatial patterning of health issues by developing a diabetes map.
Using these tools is a step in the right direction. But challenges remain, particularly in terms of access to health data. The release of datasets such as the National Health Services Directory and the National Deaths and Mortality database is encouraging.
Greater ease of use improves implementation
Increasing user-friendliness of analytical tools, such as GIS and online portals like the AURIN workbench, and walkability planning support systems offer more powerful means of understanding the relationship between health and the built environment.
However, to seize these opportunities, we need enhanced data analysis, interpretation and presentation skills for planners and policymakers.
It takes skill to communicate the stories in the data and clearly identify the implications and required policy responses. Practical and policy-relevant research is critical.
Enshrining the need for planning healthy built environments in legislation will help planners in their fundamental role of promoting healthy lifestyles. Planners can be taught the theory. But putting it into practice requires a strong policy framework to support principles, maintain standards and withstand cost-cutting pressures.
With the increasing democratisation of health data and better access to analytical tools such as Australian National Data Services, AURIN and others, spatial thinking, data-driven approaches and collaborative action can fast-track plans for new and renewed environments that enable healthy living.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/alison-taylor-388947" target="_blank">Alison Taylor</a> is lecturer, Faculty of Built Environment, UNSW.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/christopher-pettit-388997" target="_blank">Christopher Pettit</a> is professor of Urban Science, UNSW.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/ori-gudes-114294" target="_blank">Ori Gudes</a> is research fellow, Cities Futures Research Centre, UNSW.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/susan-thompson-116543" target="_blank">Susan Thompson</a> is professor of Planning and Head, City Wellbeing Program, City Futures Research Centre, UNSW.
All are authors for <a href="https://theconversation.com/au" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>.
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