A landmark former orphanage site in Surrey Hills could be transformed into a new residential community under plans lodged by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/antipodean-land-developments">Antipodean Land Developments</a> that would deliver 76 apartments and townhouses while restoring some of the suburb's most significant heritage buildings.

The burgeoninng Melbourne-based developer has submitted plans for the 9,158 sqm site at 1 Kent Road and 24 Durham Road, home to the former St Joseph's Home for Destitute Children, a historic institutional complex dating back to the late 19th century. The proposal seeks to adaptively reuse several heritage buildings while introducing two new four-storey residential buildings set within extensive landscaped grounds.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/woods-bagot">Woods Bagot</a> and Kerstin Thompson Architects, the project has been conceived as a contemporary residential village embedded within a restored heritage precinct. The development team describes the design approach as "The Village in the Garden," with new buildings positioned among mature landscaping by OCULUS and significant heritage structures.

<img alt="First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="44ec8c1b-c0b6-44ae-859e-5811b3e6a023" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Untitled%20design%20%281%29.png?VersionId=p.p1_KFh4iQoV4nisdnPfQBAsWNi7m79" />

The proposal would deliver 76 dwellings comprising a mix of apartments and duplex-style residences, significantly increasing housing supply on one of the largest privately held residential landholdings in Surrey Hills. The development includes 127 car spaces, 24 bicycle spaces and more than 1,000 sqm of communal amenity, with the existing chapel building earmarked for conversion into resident facilities.

According to the planning submission, the project centres on the restoration and adaptive reuse of the site's most significant heritage assets, including the original c.1889 St Joseph's building, the chapel designed by architect Augustus Andrew Fritsch, and the historic brick perimeter walls and entry gates. The proposal also incorporates the retention of other contributory buildings including the former infirmary and school building.

Tract Consultants, in the planning report accompanying the application, said the scheme had been shaped through extensive heritage analysis and design development.

"The shared vision for the Site by the project team has culminated in a scheme which successfully breathes life back into a historic site while delivering upon the objectives of Victoria's Housing Statement in a carefully curated and contextually responsive manner."

<img alt="First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7263b7d8-95ea-400f-9531-6ca7d22c3c33" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Untitled%20design%20%282%29.png?VersionId=4cR1tiWOsDpgxEOwZi5vVFcyvvOsYkIE" />

The proposal is being assessed under Victoria's Significant Residential Development with Affordable Housing pathway. As part of the application, three per cent of the project's residential development cost would be contributed to the Social Housing Growth Fund. The development would also provide a diverse mix of one, two and three-bedroom residences targeting a broader range of buyers than typically found in Surrey Hills' detached housing market.

Sustainability initiatives include an anticipated 66 per cent BESS score, natural cross-ventilation to 80 per cent of apartments, 28 per cent deep soil landscaping and a canopy cover outcome exceeding local planning requirements. The proposal also sets aside more than 1,083 sqm for communal indoor and outdoor resident amenity spaces.

<img alt="First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="33fad46f-fe26-4d0a-acfd-6b776e1c6a3d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Untitled%20design.png?VersionId=D9F6WVSyYCtGvSUmith35LRp6R7PQkw_" />

Planning documents describe the property as one of the largest underutilised residential sites in Surrey Hills, arguing it presents a rare opportunity to introduce "missing middle" housing in an established inner-eastern suburb while preserving and revitalising a significant heritage precinct.

Antipodean Land Developments has built a reputation for design-focused residential projects across Melbourne, particularly in the medium-density sector. Previous developments include Neighbourhood in Brunswick East, delivered with Breathe Architecture, and Balfe Park Lane, designed by Kerstin Thompson Architects.

They've been very active in site acquisition as they build out their future development pipeline. They recently launched Thornubury House, 45 apartments above a mix of commercial, retail, and food and beverage tenancies, and have plans for a boutique project in Fitzroy and another <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/vic/antipodean-plan-apartments-for-deepdenes-missing-middle-on-whitehorse-road">"missing middle" project</a> on Deepdene's Whitehorse Road.

Joel Robinson

First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills

Developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/auyin-property-development">Auyin</a> is the latest to turn to the Victorian Government's Development Facilitation Program in an effort to secure approval for its long-planned, mixed-use project in Elsternwick.

In 2018, Auyin lodged plans with Glen Eira City Council for a 14-storey building, however Council approved a reduced eight-storey scheme. A subsequent VCAT appeal in 2019 upheld the eight-storey height limit.

The project was later amended to nine storeys, but Auyin is now seeking to revive something closer to its original vision. The developer argues that the planning context has evolved significantly over the past decade, particularly within the Elsternwick Activity Centre, where higher-density development has increasingly been encouraged along Glen Huntly Road.

The proposal would transform the 1,239 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/7-12-horne-street-elsternwick-vic-3185">7-15 Horne Street</a>, opposite Elsternwick Railway Station, into a 13-storey residential and retail development designed by CBG Architects, with 40 apartments

The site currently comprises three commercial properties.

<img alt="First look: 13-storey mixed-use tower planned for Elsternwick activity centre" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="5f465dd4-509b-4082-a669-0253b313914b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/elsternwick%20podium.png?VersionId=72frWi0SmQ5AVJ3ARRhX5ILUYObhTm7x" />

The proposed apartment mix comprises 25 two-bedroom and 15 three-bedroom residences above 200 sqm of retail space at ground level. Residents would have access to a 90 sqm wellness facility, a 351 sqm communal indoor and outdoor terrace on the third level, and extensive landscaped areas throughout the development. A publicly accessible 135 sqm plaza would be created on the north-east corner of the site, providing seating, landscaping, and a new gathering space adjoining Horne Street.

The design adopts a four-storey podium that references the finer-grain character of the surrounding streetscape, with the upper tower recessed behind generous setbacks on all boundaries.

<img alt="First look: 13-storey mixed-use tower planned for Elsternwick activity centre" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e637e763-2abc-4c34-a0aa-5c7ad36fae18" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/elsternwick%20open.png?VersionId=J1AoOpZgTyaF.KeeFSX6lMjEScX8KKRi" />

A key element of the proposal is the reconfiguration and widening of the surrounding laneways. Vehicle access would be retained from Lois Lane, with upgraded pedestrian connections linking Ross Street and Horne Street. The development would provide 58 residential car spaces, two retail car spaces, and 52 bicycle spaces across two basement levels and ground-floor facilities.

Architecturally, the building draws inspiration from the established character of Elsternwick Village. The façade combines dark charcoal brickwork, textured concrete, bronze-toned metal detailing, and extensive planting integrated into podium and tower levels. The design also incorporates a chamfered corner treatment and publicly accessible plaza intended to strengthen pedestrian activity around the station precinct.

Elsternwick's last new development completion was&nbsp;EVA Elsternwick by Pitard late last year. <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/milieu-property">Milieu</a> is working away on its nature-led neighbourhood, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/elsternwick-gardens-by-milieu-8-gordon-street-elsternwick-vic-3185">Elsternwick Gardens</a>, on Gordon Street, with its first stage expected to complete next year.

First look: Auyin seeks mixed-use apartment project in growing Elsternwick Activity Centre

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/otium-parkdale-123-125-como-parade-east-parkdale-vic-3195">Otium Parkdale</a>, the 13-residence boutique development by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/huxtable-property">Huxtable Property</a>, has entered its final stages of delivery, with completion expected within the coming month and more than half of the residences sold.

The Como Parade East project is nearing the finish line at a time when opportunities to purchase new apartments in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/parkdale-vic-3195">Parkdale</a> remain exceptionally limited. Fewer than 10 per cent of dwellings in the bayside suburb are apartments, making developments like Otium a relatively rare addition to a market traditionally dominated by detached housing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134974 project_image_fid=5427]

The three-level development comprises 13 residences, including ten two-bedroom apartments and three larger three-bedroom homes, all positioned above a secure basement car park.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/almeida-architects">Almeida Architects</a> with a strong connection to its coastal surroundings, Otium combines red brick, exposed concrete and dark metal detailing with integrated landscaping and greenery. Expansive glazing, generous balconies and terraces have been incorporated throughout the design to maximise natural light and reinforce indoor-outdoor living.

Inside, the residences feature engineered European oak flooring, natural and reconstituted stone benchtops, Bosch kitchen appliances, ducted heating and cooling, lift access and secure entry systems. The larger three-bedroom residences on the upper level have been designed with house-like proportions, while the two-bedroom apartments prioritise functionality, flexibility and low-maintenance living.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134974 project_image_fid=5421]

The project is now in its final stages, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/labco">Labco</a> completing the remaining landscaping and external finishing works following the completion of the residences' interiors.

Otium's location within the heart of Parkdale continues to underpin its appeal. Residents will be just steps from local cafés, restaurants, shops and the newly elevated Parkdale Station, while the beach is less than a kilometre away.

With the project tracking ahead of schedule, buyers can currently secure a residence with a five per cent deposit and benefit from settlement terms of up to eight months. The advanced stage of construction also provides buyers with the opportunity to walk through the near-complete residences and experience the quality and finishes firsthand ahead of completion.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134974]

Otium Parkdale enters final month before completion as rare apartment opportunity nears sellout

A new boutique apartment development is entering the market in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/chermside-qld-4032">Chermside</a>, with Brisbane-based developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/ausdev">Ausdev</a> bringing 33 residences to a well-connected pocket of Brisbane's north.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/parkdrive-apartments-chermside-25-sammells-drive-chermside-qld-4032">Parkdrive Apartments</a>, at 25 Sammells Drive, will comprise a mix of one- and two-bedroom residences positioned within walking distance of Westfield Chermside, The Prince Charles Hospital, and Bradbury Park.

Established in 1989, Ausdev has a long-standing presence across both development and construction, with Parkdrive Apartments representing its latest residential project in Brisbane's northern suburbs.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152125 project_image_fid=363778]

The development has been designed around open-plan living and natural light, with residences featuring stone benchtops, timber cabinetry, BOSCH appliances, and private balconies that extend the living areas outdoors.

Kitchens are positioned as the centrepiece of the homes, incorporating natural material palettes and integrated appliances, while bathrooms have been designed with a focus on functionality and understated finishes.

Residents will have access to a communal barbecue and entertaining area on Level 3, providing shared outdoor space within the development. Secure parking and lift access are also incorporated into the building.

The project will deliver a limited collection of 33 apartments, with one-bedroom residences priced from $749,000.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152125 project_image_fid=363782]

Beyond the building itself, the location places residents within easy reach of several of Chermside's key amenities. Bradbury Park is around 350 metres away, while Westfield Chermside is approximately 1.3 kilometres from the site. The Prince Charles Hospital is located within 750 metres, and the Chermside Bus Interchange is around 1.5 kilometres away, providing connections across Brisbane.

Parkdrive Apartments adds to the growing residential pipeline in Chermside, a suburb that continues to evolve as a major retail, healthcare, and transport hub for Brisbane's north.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152125]

Ausdev introduces boutique Parkdrive Apartments to Chermside's growing centre

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/skymark-group">Skymark</a>'s boutique Cronulla development Solis has secured a 10-year Latent Defects Insurance policy through Resilience Insurance, providing buyers of the 16-residence building on Ewos Parade with structural and waterproofing protection that extends a decade beyond the building's completion.

Currently under construction and due for completion in late 2027, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/solis-cronulla-8-ewos-parade-cronulla-nsw-2230">Solis</a> is one of a small number of new developments in the Sutherland Shire to carry Resilience LDI coverage, a distinction that carries increasing weight as buyer confidence in the off-the-plan sector continues to be shaped by how developers stand behind their product.

Latent Defects Insurance, which entered the Australian market in 2022 when Resilience Insurance was approved to offer the cover, protects buyers against major structural or waterproofing defects for ten years post-completion. Unlike traditional statutory warranties, it operates as a first-resort policy, if a covered defect arises, the insurer responds directly, without the buyer needing to pursue the builder or developer through a lengthy claims process.

Resilience Insurance CEO Corey Nugent has noted that the product addresses something fundamental to the new apartment market.

"The overarching feedback from prospective buyers in the new development space is that they want more confidence and assurances around the quality of the build," Nugent says.

"Resilience Insurance Latent Defects Insurance not only gives them complete peace of mind for 10 years, but it shows the developer they are buying from is standing by their product."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150499 project_image_fid=370898]

For Solis, the Resilience LDI policy adds a meaningful layer of accountability to an already considered project. The development comprises nine two-bedroom and seven three-bedroom residences, including one dual-level three-bedroom apartment, across a five-storey building on Ewos Parade, positioned between Shelly Beach and South Cronulla.

Garden apartments connect directly to private landscaped courtyards, while upper-level homes capture beach views to the east from level four and above.&nbsp;

All 16 residences include at least one balcony or courtyard, and select apartments on the upper floors feature bar areas and secondary flexible living spaces.

Hiba Sander, Managing Director of Skymark, says Solis offers a rare balance, nestled between the quiet beauty of secluded beaches and the lively charm of South Cronulla's esplanade.

"It's a place to choose your pace and live gracefully, seaside'," Sander says.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150499 project_image_fid=370900]

The architecture, designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ida-design-group">IDA Design Group</a>'s Michael Trinh, draws from the natural erosion patterns of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/cronulla-nsw-2230">Cronulla</a>'s sandstone headlands, translating the organic forms of the coastline into soft curves, pavilion-style massing, and a material palette chosen for longevity in a salt-tinged environment.&nbsp;

Textured natural stone, soft renders, and timber-look battens reference the tones of the surrounding cliffs, while the building has been oriented to maximise natural light and passive ventilation, with primary living spaces facing north and east to capture morning sun and sea breezes.

"At Solis, our aim was to create architecture that feels quietly confident, grounded in natural materials like stone and timber, and elevated by light and landscape," Trinh says.&nbsp;

"The buildings are designed to sit gently within their coastal surrounds, with expansive glazing and abundant greenery creating a seamless dialogue between inside and out."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150499 project_image_fid=370897]

Interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/hot-black">Hot Black</a> carry the same material language through to every room. Kitchens feature integrated Gaggenau appliances, sculpted stone benchtops, and Lo &amp; Co joinery, while bathrooms feature natural stone, timber, and brushed metal finishes.&nbsp;

Hot Black Founder and Design Director Sophie Safrin describes the intent as one of considered restraint: "At Solis, every detail has been thoughtfully considered to create a timeless coastal retreat, calm, refined, and effortlessly liveable. From natural finishes to seamless indoor-outdoor flow, Solis offers a quiet elegance that's deeply connected to its surroundings.

The landscape, designed by Julian Brady of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/sitedesignstudios">Site Design Studios</a>, treats green space as an integral part of the resident experience rather than an afterthought.&nbsp;

"Gentle curves and layered native plantings mirror the ebb and flow of the ocean," Julian Brady says, "creating a serene connection between architecture and place."&nbsp;

Coco Republic has provided bespoke furniture packages tailored to the project's coastal palette.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150499 project_image_fid=370899]

Skymark has an established track record in the Sutherland Shire, with a portfolio spanning Cronulla, Woolooware and Burraneer that includes Isla, Sylva, Bask, Shells, Sula and Mist. Securing LDI on Solis reflects a broader shift in how the developer is positioning its buildings to buyers, at a time when Resilience Insurance expects the policy to become mandatory in New South Wales by 2028.

Sales at Solis are launching soon through Ray White Projects, with an official event scheduled for 11 June. Enquire for more information.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150499]

Skymark takes out 10-year Resilience Insurance LDI at Solis Cronulla

Oversupply

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GUEST OBSERVER
As mining investment falls, Australia’s growth has needed to rebalance to other sectors of the economy. A key driver of this rebalancing act has been a pick-up in housing construction, motivated by low interest rates and rising housing prices. Dwelling approvals have been at record levels in recent months.
This has been a positive story, as Australia did not build many houses when the mining boom was at its height and had an accumulated housing undersupply. But for how long will it be a positive story? When will we have built enough houses, or potentially too many? These questions have become more pertinent recently, given both the ramp-up in housing construction and a slowdown in population growth.
Answering these questions is tricky. There are good measures of the number of new houses being built (supply), but estimates of housing oversupply or undersupply also rely on growth in the number of households (demand). This is affected by population growth and the number of people in each dwelling, which is poorly measured and a swing factor when there are housing shortages or affordability changes. For example, when housing prices rise, more people live together. In short, the numbers are quite ‘rubbery’.
However, despite the uncertainties, it is clear that the recent ramp-up in housing supply means the cumulative housing deficit is diminishing. Our estimates see the national housing market in balance by 2017. Across the states, Victoria has the highest risk of oversupply, while NSW and Queensland will have undersupplies for some time yet.
The bottom line is: Australia does not currently have an oversupply of housing, but a further jump in approvals could increase the risk of building too many houses. This could affect the house price outlook. It may also make the RBA more cautious about cutting rates further from here, as the costs of cutting further could start to outweigh the benefits.  
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Housing supply is ramping up, while population growth slows 
Housing supply has been ramping up in the past couple of years in Australia (Chart 1). Indeed, a pick-up in housing investment directly contributed 0.4ppts to GDP growth over the year to June 2015, which has been helping to rebalance growth as mining investment falls. 
Leading indicators of construction activity have recently risen to record levels with over 200,000 dwellings approved in the past year. The number of new dwellings approved in H1 2015 was 40% higher than in H1 2013. As building approvals typically lead dwelling completions by around 1-3 quarters, the current high level of approvals implies that some further ramp-up in construction is likely in coming quarters. We expect housing construction to continue to be a support for GDP growth in 2016. 
However, the ramp-up in housing investment has come at a time when population growth is slowing. The latest estimates show that population growth slowed to 1.4% in 2014, down from a recent peak of 1.7% in 2012 (Chart 2). The slowdown reflects slower growth in inward migration, with the largest driver of this trend being an increase in the net flow of Kiwis back to New Zealand. 
At first glance, these contrasting trends may seem worrisome. If housing supply is ramping up at the same time that demand is weakening, surely there could be excess supply in the market at some point? However, the story is more complex than this. Much of the recent ramp-up has been needed to work off an accumulated implicit undersupply of dwellings that occurred over the past decade. 
Australia has an accumulated housing undersupply 
Measuring the extent of undersupply in the housing market is, however, also quite tricky. This is partly because there is no literal housing shortage. Instead, the number of people per household adjusts to keep demand in line with supply. For example, when there is insufficient supply of housing at a reasonable price, young people may choose to live in their family home for longer. 
This pattern has been apparent in recent years with population growth exceeding the rate of growth in new households between the 2006 and 2011 censuses (Chart 3). Over that period, the average number of people per household levelled out, rather than falling in line with the historical trend. Importantly, small variations in the number of people per household can make a big difference to estimates of growth in the number of households (which drives housing demand). Measuring housing demand is further complicated by the fact that data on the number of people per household are only available on a five-year basis. 
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‘Underlying’ demand, therefore, has to be estimated, usually based on historical trends. To do this, we have used different scenarios for the number of people per household (Chart 4). In all cases, however, growth in the number of households has exceeded growth in the number of dwellings on average over the past 15 years (particularly between 2007 and 2010). So, on average, we have an accumulated implicit housing undersupply because in previous years we had built too few houses to meet new housing demand at a constant household size. 
When will the housing undersupply be worked off? 
Although there is significant uncertainty in these estimates, it is likely that we are now working off some of the undersupply that had previously built up. This is because dwelling construction is quite clearly growing faster than population growth. Our central estimates show that the housing undersupply probably peaked in 2012 at around 200,000 dwellings and has been falling since then (Chart 5). 
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Just how quickly we will work off the housing undersupply will depend on a number of factors, including how many dwellings are built from here, how much population growth slows and, of course, how many people there are per household. 
In Chart 5, we set out three scenarios based on varying rates of growth in the number of households and all assuming that dwelling construction continues at its current level, with completions running at around 220,000 dwellings (net of 15% for demolitions and un-occupied dwellings). In the central case, with household growth of 1.4% a year this sees the undersupply of housing worked off by 2017. 
Supply imbalances differ across the states 
Although there has been a lift in residential construction in most states recently, there have been stark differences in housing supply and demand dynamics over the past decade (Charts 6 and 7). 
Victoria and New South Wales (NSW) have experienced similar levels of population growth since around 2007; however, in Victoria, construction has kept pace with the increase in the population, while in NSW it has not (Charts 8 and 9). Since the beginning of 2007, the population of NSW has grown by an estimated 813,000 people. In Victoria, the increase was almost identical at 815,000 people. However, over that time, NSW has added 214,000 dwellings, while Victoria added 307,000.
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These disparities across the states mean the national story of a housing shortfall does not apply evenly. Our estimates show significant shortfalls seem likely in NSW and Queensland. In contrast, Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia appear to be much closer to balance. These trends in housing demand and supply are no doubt contributing to the strong growth in housing prices in Sydney and weaker housing price growth elsewhere (Chart 10). 
Looking forward, housing construction has been lifting in all states and recent building approvals suggest further growth to come. In Queensland and Western Australia, there has also been a sharp slowdown in population growth. These factors combined point to a rapid improvement in the level of the housing stock relative to demand. In NSW, a significant upswing in housing construction is underway, and population growth appears to be slowing modestly. However, the accumulated housing deficit appears to have been largest in NSW, so adjustment may take some time yet. In Victoria, as discussed above, housing construction appears to have kept pace with population over recent years. Slower population growth and even stronger construction poses the risk that certain parts of the market may become oversupplied. 
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<a href="https://www.about.hsbc.com.au/hsbc-in-australia/management-team" target="_blank">P</a>aul Bloxham is chief economist (ANZ) for HSBC . Daniel Smith is economist. They can be contacted <a href="https://www.about.hsbc.com.au/hsbc-in-australia/management-team" target="_blank">here</a>.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Australia’s housing supply ramp-up: HSBC's Paul Bloxham

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The supply of apartments in Melbourne's CBD and the inner suburbs is plentiful over the next few years with a mounting concern for potential over supply, according to Herron Todd White.
HTW's Month in Review for September estimates 160,000 established apartments will be in the market by 2018 - a 43% increase compared to 112,000 apartments in 2015 and said the recent resale of new apartments, even being sold in brand new condition, are struggling to achieve their original off the plan purchase price.
"It was recorded that 1,518 new apartments settled in the CBD over the past 12 months to May 2015 (City Scope, 2015)," the report noted.
"Demand will need to remain strong in order to match the large influx of new apartments over the short to medium term. Inner city apartments that are established or are not being sold off the plan, can generally be purchased at a lower price than a new apartment. 
"Off the plan sales in the CBD are strongly underpinned by foreign purchasers. 95% of 941 apartments within the proposed 92-storey skyscraper known as Aurora located in the heart of the city were sold in a fortnight. Approximately 75% of the buyers are from South-East Asia and China. EQ Tower, another 63-storey skyscraper on A’Beckett Street, was sold out within eight months. The development will comprise 633 apartments on completion in June 2017."
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mick.cee-iDmgDDAmu8

Growing concern of oversupply in Melbourne's inner unit market: HTW

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GUEST OBSERVATION
If I were an Australian central banker, politician, bank economist, or even a negatively geared property investor, I’d be telling you Australia has a chronic housing shortage, which is responsible for our sky-high housing prices. But as an independent macro researcher, the data tells me otherwise.
The best method to determine whether a surplus or deficit of housing exists is to compare the flow of new net dwellings to new net households. This has given rise to the LF Economics Dwelling Supply Index, which tracks the supply and demand trends since June 1996.
Using the most conservative estimates to err on the side of caution by biasing downward the number of dwellings while biasing upward the number of new households, the data tells us the following:
<ul>
<li> In September 2014, Australia had a net cumulative excess supply of at least 165,000 dwellings.</li>
<li> This surplus is equivalent to more than one year’s supply at current population growth rates nationwide, and about three years for the most oversupplied state, Victoria.</li>
<li> Australia’s dwelling oversupply peaked in June 2006 at 349,000 dwellings.</li>
</ul>
Western Australia, Queensland and Northern Territory are the only states undersupplied, given the rapid influx of population to service the mining sector. This is reflected in both the continuing net deficit of dwellings relative to households and strong rental price growth. These metrics are now reversing as the mining boom unwinds.
This illustrates the classic case of supply and demand: when the index shows a persistent surplus, rental prices remained subdued. During the global financial crisis, however, rental prices surged as a genuine shortage occurred because of a moderation in construction and heightened population growth via net overseas migration. Unlike capital prices, rents cannot be leveraged, so they demonstrate the true supply and demand situation.
If there were such a dire shortage of housing as the housing cheerleaders suggest, property investors en masse would not be negatively geared in a record low interest rate environment. This tells us leveraged speculation has generated “artificial” demand that has absorbed a wealth of the supply.
Sydney and Melbourne are today’s prime examples. Unfortunately, it is only when the tide rolls out that the masses realise no such housing shortage exists. Miami and Dublin are excellent examples.
The numerous global housing price booms of the 2000s were written off by government, industry and the economics profession as a failure of inadequate housing supply and a rapidly growing population. The facts later demonstrated these booms were actually gigantic asset bubbles, spectacularly crashing and revealing mass overbuilding.
A tiny fraction of the 15,000 professional economists in the United States managed to correctly identify that their housing price boom represented a bubble and was not the result of a dwelling shortage. Relative to scale, Ireland was no different. And it appears Australia’s economists are following suit by falling into the same trap of illogic.
It is easy to see why Australia’s housing lobby places the blame for high prices on government regulations and dwelling shortages: it’s an easy and a much safer explanation than admitting the real cause to be debt-financed speculation – a bubble. Indeed, as of September 2014, Australia has the world’s third-most indebted household sector relative to GDP, edging closer to Denmark (1st) and Switzerland (2nd).
Unfortunately, the faulty narrative is maintained by government and industry, whose experts have numerous unresolved conflicts of interest.
Lindsay David is the author of <a href="https://blog.australiaboomtobust.com/2015/02/lindsay-davids-new-book-print-central-bankers-bubble-now-available/">Australia: Boom to Bust and Print: The Central Bankers Bubble.</a> David holds an MBA from IMD Business School and recently founded <a href="https://www.lfeconomics.com/about">LF Economics</a>.
This article first appeared on <a href="https://www.prosper.org.au/" target="_blank">Prosper Australia</a>.
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Melbourne and Sydney are in housing oversupply: Lindsay David

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A few weeks agowe highlighted that the number of dwellings approved for construction reached an all-time high over the year to November 2014 with almost 200,000 approvals registered nationally. 
<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/2015/01/record-high-number-dwelling-approvals-november-2014/" target="_blank"> Over the year house approvals were up 3.6%</a> compared with an 18% increase in the number of multi-unit dwellings approved.
<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Chart-1.jpg" rel="wp-prettyPhoto[g4190]"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-4147" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Chart-1.jpg" alt="Chart 1" width="500" height="181"></a>
The record level of housing supply in the pipeline comes at a time when population growth (ie housing demand) is winding down and some of the heat is coming out of the housing market.
A deep dive on the Australian Bureau of Statistics approvals data pinpoints exactly where the bulk of the development pipeline from the past year is geographically concentrated. 
At a broad level we can see the majority of new dwelling approvals are located in Melbourne where 44,633 new dwellings have been approved for construction over the 12 months ending November 2014.  Melbourne dwelling approvals accounted for 23% of all approvals nationally and 31% of all approvals across the combined capital city metro areas.
Sydney was close behind, recording just over 39,000 new dwelling approvals over the year.  67% of all approvals across the Sydney market were for multi-unit dwellings (the highest proportion of apartments approved of any capital city).
<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Table-national-approvals-across-cap-city-and-ros-regions.jpg" rel="wp-prettyPhoto[g4190]"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-4199" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Table-national-approvals-across-cap-city-and-ros-regions-580x399.jpg" alt="Table - national approvals across cap city and ros regions" width="580" height="399"></a>
While new housing supply should generally be viewed as  positive and a necessary factor in the Australian housing market and economy, areas where the approved supply pipeline are out of alignment with demand can offer up an element of risk. 
We recommend that prospective buyers factor supply levels into their housing market analysis and undertake additional research where they fear an area may be in oversupply or at least moving in this direction. 
The number of multi-unit dwellings, particularly in Melbourne and Brisbane are hovering around record highs.  Of course demand for this type of product is increasing but there are risks associated with too much new development of this product type, particularly given values are rising and population growth is slowing.
Eight of the top 20 SA3 regions, based on the number of dwelling approvals over the year to November 2014, are located in Melbourne; five are located in Perth, four in Sydney, two in Brisbane and one in Canberra.
<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Table-National-top-20.jpg" rel="wp-prettyPhoto[g4190]"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-4208" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Table-National-top-20-580x400.jpg" alt="Table National top 20" width="580" height="400"></a>
 
A state by state rundown on new housing supply begins on the next page. Please click below.
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The tables and maps below highlight exactly where the largest amount of new housing supply is in the pipeline.
<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Sydney2.jpg" rel="wp-prettyPhoto[g4190]"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-4198" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Sydney2-580x351.jpg" alt="Sydney2" width="580" height="351"></a>
<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Table-NSW.jpg" rel="wp-prettyPhoto[g4190]"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-4201" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Table-NSW-580x276.jpg" alt="Table NSW" width="580" height="276"></a>
Seven of the top ten SA3 regions showing the most dwelling approvals across Sydney have a strong bias towards multi-unit dwellings, with the Inner Sydney region topping the list at 2,631 new apartments approved over the twelve months to November 2014. 
Within the inner city region it is the Waterloo-Beaconsfield area that is attracting the most developer interest.  These suburbs account for 1,047 (or 41%) of the apartments being developed across the Inner Sydney SA3 region.  Several areas around Sydney’s inner ring are attracting very little in the way of densification over the past year. 
The Manly region has only recorded 48 new dwelling approvals over the past year and similarly, Leichardt has recorded only 65 new dwelling approvals.  Towards the outskirts of the city, the regions attracting the largest supply pipeline are Parramatta (1,558 new unit approvals over the past year and 119 house approvals) as well as the Bringelly-Green Valley region which is seeing an influx of new detached housing approvals (1,449).
 
<hr>
<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Melbourne2.jpg" rel="wp-prettyPhoto[g4190]"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-4196" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Melbourne2-580x351.jpg" alt="Melbourne2" width="580" height="351"></a>
<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Table-Vic.jpg" rel="wp-prettyPhoto[g4190]"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-4206" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Table-Vic-580x281.jpg" alt="Table Vic" width="580" height="281"></a>
Melbourne’s inner city tops the nation with the majority of new dwelling approvals, recording just over 5,000 new apartment approvals over the past year. 
The high approval reading comes after 3,725 apartments were approved in the same region over the previous year as well as 5,419 the year before that.  More than half of last year’s approvals across the Melbourne Inner City were located in the Melbourne CBD (2,418) followed by North Melbourne (682) and Docklands (657). 
Outside of the inner city, the majority of new dwelling approvals across the Melbourne metro area have been located in the outer fringes and are primarily detached dwellings.  The Whittlesea-Wallan region has recorded the second highest number of Greater Melbourne dwelling approvals over the twelve month period at 2,956 of which 83% were detached dwellings. 
The data shows that the densification taking place in the Melbourne housing market is very much focussed within the inner city core.
 
<hr>
<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Brisbane2.jpg" rel="wp-prettyPhoto[g4190]"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-4192" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Brisbane2-580x351.jpg" alt="Brisbane2" width="580" height="351"></a>
<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Table-Qld.jpg" rel="wp-prettyPhoto[g4190]"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-4203" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Table-Qld-580x286.jpg" alt="Table Qld" width="580" height="286"></a>
The Brisbane Inner North SA3 region has recorded the third highest number of new dwelling approvals of all SA3 regions nationally over the 12 months to November 2014.  2,981 new apartment approvals were recorded over the year and 117 house approvals. 
The suburbs of Bowen Hills and Newstead comprise the majority of these approvals with 1,535 new apartments approved for construction over the twelve month period. 
The Inner City region also recorded a high number of multi-unit dwelling approvals, with 1,881 new apartments approved for construction over the year. 
Outside of the state capital, the regional city of Townsville recorded the third highest number of dwelling approvals across the state over the twelve month period, with 1,228 houses and 410 apartments. 
Interestingly, the resource-intensive regions of Mackay and Gladstone-Biloela, where market conditions have softened substantially, have also made it into the top ten for the state for new dwelling approvals over the year.
 
<hr>
<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Adelaide2.jpg" rel="wp-prettyPhoto[g4190]"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-4191" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Adelaide2-580x351.jpg" alt="Adelaide2" width="580" height="351"></a><a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Perth2.jpg" rel="wp-prettyPhoto[g4190]"> </a><a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Table-SA.jpg" rel="wp-prettyPhoto[g4190]"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-4204" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Table-SA-580x285.jpg" alt="Table SA" width="580" height="285"></a>
Slightly less than one third (31.3%) of all new dwelling approvals across Adelaide were for multi-unit dwellings over the twelve months ending November 2014, with the city having a clear preference for detached dwellings. 
The largest supply pipeline, based on approvals over the twelve month period, can be found in Onkaparinga where 1,103 new dwelling approvals were issued over the year.  Most of the approvals were at Seaford (418), Aldinga (164) and Christies Beach (132). 
The Charles Sturt region was the only other SA3 in South Australia to record more than 1,000 approvals over the year.
Article continues on the next page. Please click below.
 
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Perth2.jpg" rel="wp-prettyPhoto[g4190]"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-4197" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Perth2-580x351.jpg" alt="Perth2" width="580" height="351"></a>
<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Table-WA.jpg" rel="wp-prettyPhoto[g4190]"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-4207" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Table-WA-580x284.jpg" alt="Table WA" width="580" height="284"></a>
At a time when the Perth housing market is slowing down, new dwelling approvals have moved to historic highs. 
The SA3 region of Wanneroo ranks as number two nationally for dwelling approvals, with 3,406 new homes approved for construction over the twelve months to November 2014.  
The Swan region ranked second highest across Western Australia and 8th nationally with 2,557 new dwelling approvals.  The urban form of Perth housing continues to be mostly focussed on detached housing, with only 23% of new dwelling approvals being for multi-unit dwellings (only Hobart shows a lower proportion at 11%). 
With home value growth slowing and both sales volumes and rents falling, buyers of new homes, particularly if they are buying for investment purposes, should be cautious.
 
<hr>
<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Hobart2.jpg" rel="wp-prettyPhoto[g4190]"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-4195" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Hobart2-580x365.jpg" alt="Hobart2" width="580" height="365"></a>
<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Table-Tas.jpg" rel="wp-prettyPhoto[g4190]"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-4205" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Table-Tas-580x277.jpg" alt="Table Tas" width="580" height="277"></a>
Despite recording the lowest number of dwelling approvals of any state or territory over the twelve months ending November 2014, dwelling approvals across Tasmania have been trending higher to reach their highest point since early 2012. 
The most significant level of approval activity over the twelve months to November last year was located in the north of the state at Launceston where 329 dwellings were approved for construction.
 
<hr>
<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Darwin2.jpg" rel="wp-prettyPhoto[g4190]"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-4194" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Darwin2-580x351.jpg" alt="Darwin2" width="580" height="351"></a>
<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Table-NT.jpg" rel="wp-prettyPhoto[g4190]"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-4202" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Table-NT-580x261.jpg" alt="Table NT" width="580" height="261"></a>
58% of Darwin dwelling approvals over the twelve months to November 2014 were for multi-unit dwellings, the highest proportion of apartment approvals outside of Sydney. 
The largest development pipeline, based on dwelling approvals over the twelve month period, was at Palmerston with 818 new dwelling approvals a majority of which were units.
 
<hr>
<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/canberra2.jpg" rel="wp-prettyPhoto[g4190]"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-4193" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/canberra2-580x366.jpg" alt="canberra2" width="580" height="366"></a>
<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Table-ACT.jpg" rel="wp-prettyPhoto[g4190]"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-4200" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Table-ACT-580x269.jpg" alt="Table ACT" width="580" height="269"></a>
The annual number of dwelling approvals has been trending lower across the Australian Capital Territory since early 2014 as housing market conditions broadly soften across the national capital. 
The Gungahlin region remains the most popular location for dwelling approvals across the Territory, with 2,160 new dwelling approvals over the twelve month period ending November last year. 
That figure is almost three times higher than the next most popular SA3 location, Cotter-Namadji, where 762 dwellings were approved for construction.
Buyers and developers of new stock should be cautious given that values, sales volumes and rental rates are currently falling in Canberra.
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Where are the housing supply pipelines? A state by state rundown

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Melbourne has defied the critics with better than expected post-GFC property price growth. The city boasts a wonderful cultural lifestyle, Australia's best town transport network, and year-round tourism.
But, is that enough to justify plonking money in to a market where the cost of accommodation is already significantly higher than two thirds of Australia?
A significant portion of Victorian government revenues over the last five to six years has been in the form of property-related taxes from an <a href="https://www.propertyology.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/2013.02.16_Propertyology_FieldOfDreams.pdf">over stimulated construction industry</a>.
<img src="/images/2015/01/30/pressley%20jan%2030%20one.jpg" alt="">
We have been increasingly concerned about an oversupply implication on Melbourne property markets. The data in our building approvals graphic shows that property supply has been significantly higher over the last five years than previous trends.
To date, the higher supply has been counter-punched by higher demand in the form of a swing in population growth. Population growth rates have come from two main sources: <a href="https://www.propertyology.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/InterstateMigration_2014-06.jpg" target="_blank">net interstate migration</a> and the international student market.
We believe that Melbourne’s property market is very delicately poised. We question the sustainability of Victoria’s ‘we’ll keep building and they’ll keep coming’ strategy. The market has been over supplied for some time. Rental yields are already the lowest in the country and vacancy rates will rise above where they are now.
In our opinion, Victoria has some significant economic challenges on the horizon. The state has a high exposure to manufacturing and the closure of Ford, Holden and Toyota during 2016-17 will inflict a lot of pain. According to a study conducted by University of Adelaide, 98,000 Victorian jobs will be lost. The city councils with the biggest exposure are Melbourne City (15,000), Hume (9,000), Dandenong (7,000), Hobsons Bay (6,000) and Geelong (5,000).
A new state government was elected in to office in November 2014 which resulted in the scrapping of one of the state’s very few major infrastructure projects – the $18 billion East West Link transport project.
With a waning manufacturing industry, fewer state-owned assets than the likes of New South Wales and Queensland, and a small infrastructure pipeline it remains to be seen how the jobs will be created to support a growing population.
Will the new government play the ‘just expand the public sector’ card?
<img src="/images/2015/01/30/pressley%20jan%2030%20three.jpg" alt="">
Even with the higher population growth rates, the rates of property supply are enough to be concerned about. Things could become quite ‘ugly’ if intervention doesn’t create the extra jobs needed to support population growth. We might see interstate migration trends do an about face over the next couple of years.
Simon Pressley is managing director of Propertyology, a property market analyst, accredited property investment adviser, and buyer’s agent. 
<a href="https://www.propertyology.com.au/more-than-a-buyers-agent/" target="_blank">Propertyology </a>works exclusively with property investors to purchase properties in strategically chosen locations all over Australia.
<h2>How to purchase high-performing investment properties: a free Propertyology eBook</h2>
 
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spressley-sBoeMhannA

Melbourne oversupply is an increasing concern: Simon Pressley

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Rumours of the imminent demise of the residential construction boom were somewhat exaggerated, it seems. Only yesterday morning I mused in the Twittersphere that we would need to see a proverbial "king wave" of building approvals for the month of November to reinstate the data series to a record high...
<img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-eRHnncJlYUw/VK6c4jalVHI/AAAAAAAASW4/Rc1gJIDLC_g/s1600/pete.jpg">
...and, in the event, that's exactly what we got. Buoyed by a sizeable increase in attached dwellings over the past year, a further total of 18,245 <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/8731.0Nov%202014?OpenDocument" target="_blank">building approvals</a> in November took total approvals to the highest annual level on record at 199,173. Over the past year there have been approvals for 113,734 houses (+4%) and 85,439 units and apartments (+18%) representing an excellent supply response to low interest rates and the ensuing increase in dwelling prices. The 18,245 approvals seasonally adjusted in the month of November also smashed the previous two decade old monthly record of 17,745 set way back in August 1994, by more than 3%.
The below chart thus indicates an impressive volume of approvals in the pipeline. With population growth sliding in most states outside New South Wales this generally points towards cooling dwelling price growth in many market sectors as supply steadily comes online. 
<img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-MhBxXFt4g18/VK5xJqYxgII/AAAAAAAASVw/qMPFy9uGRSg/s1600/BA1.jpg">
Let's take a run through the key facts and figures in three short parts, commencing with...
Part one - Australian economy
November 2014 was a monster month for the value of residential building jobs at a seasonally adjusted $5,465 million - this is by a huge margin the greatest monthly figure on record, thereby taking the total value of building jobs to new record heights on an annualised basis.
<img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-dIEWm7ZsazM/VK5xLJsWHFI/AAAAAAAASV8/X9K1KZdNKYc/s1600/BA6.jpg"> 
Victoria has been the kingpin of residential construction for some years now. Yet while this provides some short-term juice for the local economy, an oversupply of apartment stock is nurturing a systemic risk in that market as detailed in part three below.
As <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/construction-work-done-sounds-alarm-on" target="_blank">analysed here previously</a> residential construction alone doesn't stand a snowball's chance of successfully offseting the forthcoming declines in mining construction, particularly as "alterations and additions" (major renovations activity) has contributed so little to GDP over the past year, though commercial and infrastructure construction will assist.
The other state which has really embraced a building boom has been New South Wales - but contrary to popular belief the surge in the number of cranes on the Sydney skyline is not leading to an oversupply of residential property.
<img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-tdP6OgG_zPI/VK5xLkYK-kI/AAAAAAAASWI/IszyJS7S8Zk/s1600/BA7.jpg"> 
In fact the enormous boom in building jobs values and construction has to a significant extent been driven by infrastructure and commercial projects.
These include some of those initiated by LendLease (ASX: LLC) such as the gargantuan $6 billion Barangaroo project, of which the enormous office towers "T1, T2 and T3" have been progressing apace since the middle of 2014 (see some of my <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2014/06/hanging-gardens-of-barangaroo" target="_blank">site photos here</a> among various places on this blog for an idea of the scale).
<img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-f-3HPevuKmU/VK5xMzGRPjI/AAAAAAAASWY/GbYiABmaz2s/s1600/BA8.jpg"> 
Article continues on the next page. Please click below. 
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
Part two- Capital cities
Rather than imbue readers with a chronic case of "chart fatigue" we will omit the state level data today other than to note that Victoria is approving huge volumes of supply, but approvals in New South Wales are now sliding.
Let's skip directly to what is happening at the more interesting capital city level where Greater Melbourne is being joined by Greater Perth in approving the largest number of houses.
 <img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-fMSl5a7IuzE/VK5xNiypVfI/AAAAAAAASWg/uZXBFmckqK4/s1600/ba2.jpg"> 
However it is the supply of inner city apartment stock that holds most intrigue for us in this data series. 
The trend data for Sydney apartment approvals peaked way back in September 2013 and continues to slide on a rolling annual basis - now down to a level at around 24,000 which can be easily absorbed by the growing market demand (population growth in the city could tip in at up to around 90,000 this year). 
Notably some commentators have called an oversupply of residential building in Greater Sydney. I can see why you would think that given the construction that is visibly taking place. 
But much of this is commerical in natue and the numbers tell another story - with the exception of a few small pockets in inner south and inner city suburbs, the market remains tight.
In reality much of desirable inner suburban Sydney has precisely the opposite problem with planning permissions generally difficult to come by and vacancy rates contracting to their <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2014/12/perfect-storm-for-sydney" target="_blank">lowest level in more than 22 months</a> - since February 2013 - at just 1.5%.
Not only is the new construction not causing an oversupply, in most locations it has barely even begun to address the inherent undersupply.
 <img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-nWgP2Dzi2AY/VK5xN-zJObI/AAAAAAAASWk/pfebfudDE-Y/s1600/ba3.jpg"> 
Greater Brisbane continues to approve a higher number of units and apartments than has been historically typical.
Therefore although we feel that Brisbane is likely to be Australia's best performing property market over the next few years, we would suggest avoiding those inner suburbs where there is a raft of new projects coming online as detailed here previously.
The problem child is Greater Melbourne. The month of November saw an extraordinary pre-election surge of 3,931 attached dwelling approvals (to add to more than 22,000 detached house approvals in the last 12 months).
Despite there already being a glut of apartment stock on the market and elevated vacancy rates, this takes rolling annual attached dwelling approvals to an unprecedented level for Melbourne at more than 25,000, and trending rapidly towards a figure with a "3 handle".
Article continues on the next page. Please click below.
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Part three - Melbourne going highrise bonkers
The value of approvals in Victoria as charted below - while promising an attractive short-term sugar hit to the local construction economy - also hints at an underlying muddle.
 <img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-nqwGVFyEW6I/VK5xJwi7UaI/AAAAAAAASWE/PpY6yV-ab18/s1600/BA5.jpg">
The number of high rise units continues to break new record levels, largely thanks to the prevailing trend towards constructing towering apartment structures to be exported to offshore investors. 
In localities such as Docklands a high percentage of units are thought to stand vacant as well highlighted at the suburb level in a recent Prosper report entitled Speculative Vacancies in Melbourne 2014.
Drilling into the number of apartments approved by number of storeys below highlights the crux of the issue. More than 3,000 units of four or more storeys were approved in November alone (!) taking the rolling annual total close to 15,000. This is well over double the figures being notched as recently as 2009.
 <img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-DhYEmGMmWq0/VK5xJxa6XRI/AAAAAAAASV0/JPMIZKQo-jQ/s1600/BA4.jpg"> 
Put another way, across the last five years Victoria has approved an extraordinary 62,837 "high rise" (four plus storey) units - well over triple the 18,705 approvals in the preceding five years (New South Wales has been doing something similar in recent years but Sydney is playing catch-up after six years of woeful undersupply).
In short there is clear oversupply of highrise apartments set to land squarely in the city of Melbourne. 
Of course, over the long-term this will easily be absorbed as the city population grows and the largest Australian cities adopt a more Asian city feel and style of high-density living.
Over the short-term, however, this presents a systemic risk and may result in a painful correction in that sector of the market. 
The wrap
From a macroeconomic perspective this was a big result in November both in terms of the number and value of building approvals, which bodes well for this residential construction cycle pushing through until 2017.
At the capital city level apartment approvals have continued to ease back in Greater Sydney meaning that those waiting to see a harbour city oversupply are likely to be disappointed. 
Melbourne, on the other hand, is continuing to wave through high rise approvals at a maniacal rate. This may mask malignant adverse consequences.
Pete Wargent is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.
His new book '<a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>' is out now.
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Building approvals hit record high: We need to talk about Melbourne

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With cranes dotting the horizon and a new apartment complex seemingly launched every week, many are wondering whether Melbourne will soon have more homes than it knows what to do with.
The Housing Institute of Australia forecasts a total of 51,007 dwelling starts for 2014. The figure puts Victoria's housing output above that of any other state, as it has been for every year since 2005. Dwelling starts in Victoria are predicted to reach 8.7% above those recorded last year.
According to <a href="/news">Victorian government predictions</a>, the number of households in Victoria is set to grow by an average of 1.9% between 2011 and 2021 to a total of 2,600,000 households.
The population projections have some arguing that Victoria is equipping itself for a migration boom. Others, however, believe we are building excess stock that will eventually result in a housing downturn. Meanwhile, the latest Speculative Vacancies Report from Prosper estimates a total of 64,386 properties are likely currently vacant in Melbourne.
<div id="stcpDiv" style="position: absolute; top: -1999px; left: -1988px;">64,386</div>
Property Observer took the question to the experts: Is Melbourne facing an oversupply problem?
Catherine Cashmore: independent analyst and author of Prosper's 2014 Speculative Vacancies Report<img src="/images/authors/fullbody/Catherine-Cashmore.png" alt="" style="float: right;">
If you're looking at it over the state as a whole, compared with the increase in population, it appears that there is ample property for the population.
If you narrow it down it down and look at it at a micro level, some areas definitely have an oversupply. Areas like Cardinia: there are about another 21,000 homes or that are to be built over the next five years or so. But almost 15% of the existing stock is sitting there vacant or unused.
When you say oversupply, in raw terms, sure. But the fact that it's not available to be accessed is important.
This is why it's really important for the government to understand how much latent supply is out there. If we do have a downturn in economic activity – which we will have, property cycles are quite predictable – investors try to offload their stock. That's what happened in 2008. A whole load of tiny apartments came onto the market because investors needed to access funds. Vacant properties go on the rental market. People sell off holiday homes.
In a downturn, people are hit in the pocket and the latent supply becomes active.
I wouldn't touch an inner city apartment. I'm talking about the Docklands, Carlton, West Footscray – all of these areas have seen an enormous uplift in apartment stock.
In Abbotsford, I'd advise any investor to keep glued to SQM's vacancy rates. In Abbotsford, SQM's <a href="https://www.sqmresearch.com.au/terms_vacancy.php" target="_blank">vacancy rate</a> came to 14% at one point. If you add that to our [Prosper's] <a href="https://www.prosper.org.au/2014/11/05/speculative-vacancies-7/" target="_blank">speculative vacancy rate</a>, of properties that have been vacant for 12 months or more – that figure rises considerably.
That is a red flag. The risks are just too great. The supply is not going to go away. You're not going to get capital gains from it, and you're not going to get a tenant.
The government can't keep talking about having a housing supply crisis. [Victorian Planning Minister] Matthew Guy says he doesn't want to see Melbourne suffering from a shortage of supply. They're fine concentrating on pushing the city's boundaries outwards and building more highrises, rather than concentrating on the supply that is vacant.
Robert Larocca: Victoria housing market specialist, RP Data<img src="/images/authors/fullbody/Robert-Larocca.png" alt="" style="float: right;">
The question of supply levels is a vexed one, after all a high level of supply can be great for buyers as it can dampen price growth, but as most buyers are sellers too it is not that simple.
The question is also hard to comprehensively answer, as there are a wide range of data sets and stages in the development cycle to compare.
At a citywide level the volume of homes on the market at any given time is a good measure.  In the month ending on 9 November there were 4.5% more homes newly listed for sale and 6.6% fewer overall homes for sale in Melbourne. Given values have been rising that suggests that there is not oversupply of homes for sale, buyers are buying the new homes and the older stock is also reducing.
But what of the unit market? A casual glance at the Melbourne skyline shows a lot of new high rise residential towers being constructed. Our data shows that those units are finding buyers. The number of units listed for sale is marginally, 2.4% lower than a year ago, and the overall number of units on the market is 3.3% higher.
That suggests that the supply is exceeding demand to a greater extent than is the case in the houses market. That is not necessarily a bad thing. Over the past decade the state government’s policies to address housing affordability concerns have been centred on increased supply in the inner city unit market and outer suburbs. The data shows that it is working.
This article continues on the next page. Please click below.
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Andrew Wilson: Chief economist, Domain Group's Australian Property Monitors<img src="/images/authors/fullbody/Andrew-Wilson.png" alt="" style="float: right;">
I think it's almost becoming common knowledge that in the CBD highrise market, it clearly looks like supply has moved ahead of underlying demand.
We have record levels of approvals for highrises over the last two years.
It's a market that's under development in the sense that demand isn't pushing supply, but supply is trying to lead demand. The difficulty is that a lot of the development is funded by overseas development. The question is whether that investment model reflects the investment model we have here. That is, ensuring there are a lot of pre-sales before construction commences to ensure demand meets supply.
The prospect of empty towers is raised, and it also presents a conundrum for those developers who are looking for a critical mass of pre-sales before construction commences. With the market seemingly flooded, it means there's a lot of competition for a small pool of buyers. I don't know if there's an underlying culture of CBD living in Melbourne, particularly a culture that would satisfy the number of apartments that would be built. I'm not sure if there's the infrastructure to support it. I'm not sure Melbourne has the natural attributes that would support inner city living like in Sydney and Brisbane.
We probably have a lack of high rise in some of the inner suburban areas. South Yarra has undertaken a change in its profile, as has Prahran. I think demand and supply are matching each other in Prahran and South Yarra.
In Boroondora and Bayside and Stonnington, there are constraints from the local community to high rise development but there is the demand there. It's not all about high rise - it's a question of median density as well. The key question is whether there will be a medium density homes available for downsizers. If we do have these restrictions, there is a shortage.
We seem to be moving away from balance. We're building more high rises in the inner city and fewer medium density suburbs.
Developers such as Little Projects seem to be meeting the market, as are many other developers. In the city of Yarra, there seems to be a reasonable balance there.
Terry Ryder: Founder, hotspotting.com.au<img src="/images/authors/fullbody/Terry-Ryder.png" style="float: right;">
I'm surprised this is even up for debate. The oversupply in Melbourne's inner city apartment is starkly obvious. Also readily apparent is that it will get worse. A lot worse. It has the potential to cause a market crash.
Current vacancy rates include 5% in Docklands, 6% in the CBD and 7% in Southbank. That's about 1,200 apartments sitting vacant and seeking tenants, without considering the thousands of apartments under construction or being marketed off the plan prior to construction.
The true level of vacancies may be higher, given a recent report which found that 17% of Docklands apartments consumed no water last year, which presumably means they were permanently vacant.
New highrise projects are being approved by Planning Minister Matthew Guy at a frantic rate. Since coming to office four years ago, Guy has approved close to 100 buildings in Melbourne's inner city areas.
A recent study by RMIT, looking at additions to the supply of inner-city units from 2011 to 2021, found 85,000 apartments either built, under construction or in the pipeline.
Guy has shown that he will approve anything and everything that comes across his desk. A report six weeks ago suggested there were applications for 42 more apartment buildings on his desk – and the record suggests they will all be approved. You have to wonder about his motivations.
It's overbuilding on a grand and reckless scale. And it's all being done, not to provide homes for Melbourne buyers, but for sale to Asian investors.
There is clearly no local demand to support the scale of new supply that's being created. We will soon have vacancies above 10% throughout the inner city suburbs, with rents falling and property values being dragged down with it.
Inner city Melbourne has experienced oversupply in the past. It helps to explain why the market performance of inner city units has been so poor in Melbourne.
There has been no growth in the median unit price for the CBD over the past three years, while the median prices for Southbank and Docklands have fallen in that time.
Over the past five years, the median price for Docklands has averaged growth of just 1.7% per year, while Southbank and the CBD has managed little better, at around 3% per year.
Given the poor historic performance of inner city apartments, the current high vacancies and the impending glut of new properties, I would strongly urge investors – and home buyers – to steer well clear of this market.
This article continues on the next page. Please click below.
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Miriam Sandkuhler: Founder, <a href="https://www.propertymavens.com.au" target="_blank">Property Mavens<img src="/images/authors/fullbody/sandkuhler-profile.png" alt="" style="float: right;"></a>
Having lived in and around the inner Bayside suburbs over the last 20 plus years, the ongoing addition of highrise development, especially in and around Port Melbourne, has had an enormous impact on the area.
While Port Melbourne has an attractive location on the bay with some great amenity, I would say that oversupply of apartments is an issue, not just for investors but for local residents alike.
When attempting to shop at Coles or anywhere in Bay Street, it is often a struggle to find a car park. In securing one, the one hour time limit frequently isn't adequate and the grey ghosts are hot to trot in this densely populated part of the suburb. Bay Street also carries a high volume of traffic during peak hour into and from the CBD and surrounding suburbs.
The local primary school is full to overflowing and the new Albert Park high school is also at capacity (it services Albert Park residents ahead of Port Melbourne residents). There is strong demand for a high school and child care to be built in Port Melbourne.
As we know, high demand and low supply drives capital growth. As demand in Port Melbourne is average, I wouldn't recommend investing in Port Melbourne. Investors can do better in other inner city suburbs with less high and midrise development, lower supply and greater demand.
This is evidenced by there being over 1,000 apartments available for rent and over 1,150 apartments for sale as at today, not including houses for rent or sale. Demand for housing to buy is average, based on data from listings over the last 12 months on realestate.com.au.
If owner occupiers particularly wanted to reside in Port Melbourne, I would recommend that they only buy a period style house to maximise capital growth and keep to the older and more established parts of Port Melbourne - on the north side of Graham Street and towards the city.
In other words, steer clear of all of the apartments.
Todd Hunter: Director and location researcher, <a href="https://www.wheregroup.com.au/" target="_blank">wHere Group</a><img src="/images/authors/fullbody/hunter-profile-2.png" alt="" style="float: right;">
Note: Last year, <a href="/news/vic/melbournes-potential-oversupply-the-experts-have-their-say">when asked the same question</a>, Todd Hunter said Melbourne was "absolutely" facing oversupply. 
So I went back and had a re-look at the available properties for sale and for lease, and I'm sorry, but the numbers tell a similar story:
Docklands and surrounding suburbs: 1,904 units for lease, 2,205 for sale, 4.5% yield
Melton: 840 houses for sale, 170 for lease, 4.7% yield
Whittlesea: 1,912 for sale, 414 for lease, 4.7% yield
Pakenham: 765 for sale, 414 for lease, 4.9% yield
Point Cook: 1,685 for sale, 518 for lease, 4.3% yield
Roxburgh Park: 902 for sale, 178 for lease, 5.1% yield
Werribee: 1,680 for sale, 504 for lease, 4.6% yield
In the above numbers, I have not used any price point and ticked the surrounding areas on realestate.com.au and the suburbs next door also add relevance to the huge over supply in these locations. All locations except for Docklands are houses.
It is also relevant to note that the above numbers account for each advert on the website. Now on many of the adverts where new House and Land is being offered or Blocks of Land, there are many properties on the one advert, so the numbers are even more scary than above – and the yields are very reflective of an over supplied market place.
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jrichardson-uRX5hFdKfN

Exclusive: Does Melbourne have an oversupply problem?

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A media release this week was positively gushing in its eulogy of the Brisbane inner city apartment market. Sales are surging, it said, and the level of new construction in the pipeline was a cause for celebration. The market, apparently, “continues to shine”.
From where I’m sitting, sales are not surging and the new construction – 14 new projects with 1,400 apartments were launched in the June quarter alone - will make worse an existing oversupply.
The thing is, the people building, promoting and selling apartments are concerned only about finding buyers. They’re not interested in the broader consequences of the projects that are earning them money.
If the apartments in the current project sell, they pocket the profits and commissions, and move on to the next one.
Others have to deal with the carnage created by their projects. And there will be repercussions from the overbuilding of apartments in Brisbane.
The situation in the Brisbane inner city market is not (yet) as serious as that in Melbourne, where the existing oversupply is serious and the future oversupply will border on catastrophic.
But Brisbane is heading down the same slippery slope to surplus as Melbourne.
In Brisbane, as in Melbourne, Sydney, the Gold Coast and other major unit markets, the inspiration for the high level of new building is the Chinese investment market. Everyone is targeting Chinese investors.
Developers and their marketing stooges don’t care about the vacancy rate figures. That’s someone else’s problem. If they can flog their apartments to Asian buyers, nothing else needs to be considered.
The people who will feel the most pain in the future will be the investor buyers. High vacancies will push down rents and the returns they will earn from their investment. That in turn will undermine values.
Others will suffer. Owners of existing properties in or near the inner city will also find it hard to tenant their properties and will have to cut rents. Their values will fall also. Home owners in those areas will be equally affected by falling values.
Overbuilding is a constant and recurrent problem in inner city apartment markets. It’s the reason capital growth rates have been so poor in Brisbane.
The average annual rise in the median unit price in the Brisbane CBD has been around 3% per year over the past five years and also the past 10 years. In real terms, capital growth has been negligible at best.
Suburbs just outside the CBD, including Kangaroo Point, Fortitude Valley and South Brisbane, have similar track records.
This week’s media release claims sales are now “surging” in the Brisbane inner city apartment market. Not according to the sales data I’m seeing. Sales levels did rise last year, with every quarter producing an increase in sales volumes. But the market peaked in the December 2013 quarter and sales activity has declined in 2014.
That probably explains why there has been little price growth in evidence recently. According to Australian Property Monitors data, there was no change to median prices in the CBD and Woolloongabba in the most recent quarter, a rise of about 1% in Fortitude Valley and South Brisbane, and a 4% decrease in Kangaroo Point.
The real issue is that the Brisbane inner city areas already have too many apartments. The CBD and the near city suburbs all have vacancy rates in the 3.5% to 4.5% range. Those vacancy levels would not cause undue concern, except that massive levels of new supply are in the pipeline.
The writer of this week’s media release was clearly excited about the new projects coming up. It scoffed as the “predictable murmurings” about oversupply. But the concerns are real and well-placed. Dozens of new highrise apartment buildings are under construction or in planning, bringing thousands of new units to an oversupplied market.
There’s been a lot of media about the potential for prices to fall because of a “bubble”. There is no bubble in Australian property prices but there is a real threat of value decline in many major markets caused by developer overbuilding.
We’ve seen many times in the recent past how much damage oversupply can do and how much angst it can cause to property owners, including both investors and home owners, when values fall.
The Gold Coast has just emerged from years of falling property values - many people own properties worth less than they paid four or five years ago. The median unit price in Surfers Paradise is still lower than it was in 2009.
Owners of property in Gladstone have suffered double-digit value losses, not because of a decline in demand but because of absurd levels of overbuilding by developers. What were they thinking?
Where overbuilding has coincided with a sharp drop in demand because of a pause in the resources sector, values have dropped as much as 40% from their peak levels, including in Karratha in Western Australia and Moranbah in Queensland.
Inner city apartment markets, including those in Brisbane, face the same risk.
I’m not sure what the solution is, with councils and state governments eager to approve anything that’s proposed and trumpet the outcomes as a construction boom benefiting everyone. Until Chinese investors realise they’re being sold over-priced apartments for which there is little or no tenancy demand, developers will continue throwing up high-rise in inner Brisbane and elsewhere.
The outcome, in some places at least, will be a market crash that will be ugly to behold.
I’m urging investors and owner-occupiers to stay well away from these markets.
You can contact Terry via <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email</a> or <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>. 
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Brisbane on the slippery slope to oversupply

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Currently Australia has a population of some 23,640,000 and we are rapidly heading towards the 24 million mark.
In the most recent population update issued by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) for the March quarter 2014 there are some interesting facts and some shifting fortunes for various Australian states. Some of the changes directly reflect the shifting strengths of the associated local real estate market, but there are many other influences the population is having on demand for housing.
Our march towards a population of 24 million is being fuelled by some key facts; our birth-rate is healthy while our death-rate is much lower. According to the ABS a new birth takes place every one minute and 43 seconds, while a death occurs every three minutes and 31 seconds. So births are well ahead. There is one new international migration into Australia every two minutes and five seconds, and we have the net result adding one new person to the local population every one minute and 17 seconds.  Our population growth rate is at around 1.8% which is very high by international standards; therefore we lead the OECD ranks.
It’s little wonder that we see so many new baby wear shops in our local shopping centres, and also continued strong demand for housing.
International Migration
While our natural rate of population growth is impressive, it only accounts for 40% of overall growth, with 60% coming from international migration to Australia. The impact is also apparent in NSW and Victoria, the two states currently leading in population gains.
The March Quarter ABS figures show that in NSW the population increased by 114,500 with 67% of that coming from net overseas migration. In Victoria the population grew by 108,800 with migration making a 57% contribution and we know that these two states also have the most demand for housing and the most robust prices. Clearly the arrival of one new international migrant almost every two minutes is having a major impact on growth and creates more immediate demand for housing than the numbers of new born babies.
Interstate Migration Shows Major Shifts
While WA still leads in the rate of growth at 2.5%, that is well down from the rate of 3.5% just 12 months ago, as momentum is shifting towards the big states like NSW and with its current population at 7,500,600 it’s easy to see how important that state and Victoria and their local economies are as we move out of the mining boom. The ABS figures go further and show how population trends have changed over the last five years.
In 2009 some 12,300 residents left NSW to move to Queensland, in 2014 that figure had fallen to 4,800.  That’s a very big shift. More people are arriving and staying in NSW where housing supply is at its most critical. At the same time growth has slowed in Queensland and WA. In fact NSW has recorded its lowest interstate migration of population in 30 years and Victoria has had its highest gains on interstate migration to that state on record. Queensland has seen its lowest rate of gain, dropping 65% in five years.
We are seeing some changes that are reversing decade-long trends and the different population pressures in each state are reflected in local demand for housing. New migrants and expanded families need homes and both are having a major impact on our local real estate markets and possibly compounding the problems of undersupply.
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pchittenden-eLqUUC8TWW

Population growth compounding our undersupply problems

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It makes absolute sense that a parliamentary committee would propose hitting foreign investors with extra fees.
If politicians are silly enough to bring on a lengthy, costly, pointless inquiry into a mythical problem (housing affordability), it follows that they would come up with “solutions” that are equally ineffectual.
The idea which reportedly is being considered by the parliamentary committee investigating housing affordability is to charge foreign buyers of Australian property extra stamp duty or other additional fees.
The “logic” goes like this: there is an affordability crisis; foreign investors are causing it and therefore if we hit foreign buyers with lots of extra costs they’ll all go away and there won’t be a problem any more.
Housing will be affordable once again and young Australians will all live happily every after.
Here’s the problem with the solution: we don’t have an affordability crisis, foreign investors are not pricing young Australians out of the market and charging them additional stamp duty will not have the slightest impact on the cost of dwellings for first home buyers.
The Reserve Bank and many commentators from the property research sector have said they believe the impact of foreign buyers is being overstated. I think they’re right.
None of that should prevent the committee from proceeding with the idea of punishing foreign investors. This whole exercise, remember, is being run according to the 'Boys Own Manual of Bureaucratic Smokescreens' written by Sir Humphrey Appleby.
Foreigners account for a small percentage of residential property sales. Their numbers are dwarfed by local investors and in particular by the most powerful force in Australian real estate, home buyers other than first home buyers.
Foreigners are not out-bidding Australians at Sydney and Melbourne auctions because foreigners are restricted in what they are allowed to buy (although there are claims they are sidestepping the rules in the some cases). The “debate” has got to the point where anyone Asian-looking who buys at auction is deemed to be a foreign investor.
Most foreign buyers are purchasing off the plan apartments in locations such as inner city Melbourne and the Gold Coast. These places are not first homebuyer territory so they are not competing with young Aussie wannabes.
My interpretation is that the impact of foreign investors on Australian house prices is close to zero.
Here’s the great irony in all this: if you really wanted to bring down the price of city real estate, you should be providing incentives for foreigners to buy off the plan apartments, not disincentives.
The only way to reduce property values is to create a massive oversupply. Simply increasing supply a little won’t do it. You need a serious glut, with vacancies at 10% or 15%.
The only markets around Australia where values have dropped a lot (such as mining towns and resources regional centres) are locations with major vacancies caused by oversupply.
Several of the inner city markets in our biggest cities already have high vacancies but developers are bringing on more and more new towers. Why? Because they think they can flog them to foreign investors. At least half of the apartments being built around Australia are being developed by Asian companies.
These apartment towers are not being built for Aussie first home buyers or Aussie buyers of any genre. They’re being built for gullible Chinese investors. Some of our cities, headed by Melbourne, will end up with scary oversupplies, big enough to crash rentals and prices – and not just in the inner city areas.
If politicians scare off foreign investors by hitting them with onerous charges, many highrise developments will be scrapped. No oversupply, no collapsing property values, no cheap dwellings for first home buyers – and, incidentally, no construction boom and none of the jobs it would generate.
On that basis, I think deterring foreign investors is a good idea – not because it will help housing affordability but because it will prevent a disastrous oversupply of apartments in Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth, the Gold Coast and, eventually, Sydney.
You can contact Terry via <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email</a> or on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>. 
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