Lower North Shore developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/abadeen-group">Abadeen</a> has secured development approval for its ultra-luxury residential project on the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/34-burran-avenue-mosman-nsw-2088">dress circle Burran Avenue</a>.

The project, just&nbsp;50 metres from Balmoral Beach within Mosman’s prestigious Golden Triangle, will commence construction in early 2026,&nbsp;following the successful completion of its nearby Hampden Mosman project.

Lodged in April 2025 and approved in September 2025, the development will comprise three whole-floor residences, each designed to capture panoramic harbour views through Sydney Heads.

<img alt="34 Burran Avenue, Mosman" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7f4c7816-0ac8-4ef7-be0a-8ef23b693b68" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/BURRAN%20EV01%20R04%20option%201%20%281%29.jpg?VersionId=gVzI8pT6_K59Nhzaz0FLEvY6Kj9Kc8Fg" />

Set on an elevated 550 sqm corner site at the junction of Burran Avenue and Stanton Road, the building has been designed to sit within Balmoral’s natural slope. The façade mixes stone and metal cladding with angular forms, while oversized terraces and full-height sliding doors create a connection between interior living spaces and outdoor entertaining areas.

The delivery team from Abadeen’s Hampden Mosman project, which includes construction company Reform Projects and interiors company Mathieson, has been retained to bring the same level of execution and craftsmanship to Burran Avenue.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/platform-architects">Platform Architects</a> has been appointed project architect, bringing extensive experience from recent luxury residential projects in Manly, Fairlight and Freshwater.

&nbsp;

Justin Brown, Executive Chairman and Founder of Abadeen, said sites of this calibre, this close to Balmoral, are incredibly rare.

“Burran Avenue is an extraordinary site; its location, its scale and its outlook make it truly one of a kind. Receiving DA approval marks an exciting milestone for Abadeen."

"We’re proud to be moving forward with an exceptional team to deliver a project that will set a new standard for ultra-luxury living on Sydney’s Lower North Shore. Construction is planned to commence in early 2026, and interest is already strong from discerning local buyers who recognise the uniqueness of this address."

Brown anticipates prices will set new Mosman benchmarks above $20 million. Sales are expected to launch in March 2026.

Joel Robinson

Abadeen approved for Mosman's priciest apartments

Lifestyle developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gurner">GURNER™ Group</a>, in partnership with Costa Property Group, has announced plans to reimagine Cunningham Pier in Geelong, one of Victoria's most recognisable heritage landmarks.

The announcement follows the City of Greater Geelong’s release of its Draft Geelong Waterfront Master Plan, which seeks to revitalise the waterfront with new energy, tourism, and investment. GURNER and Costa Property Group’s vision aligns with the Council’s ambitions to create a vibrant, connected, and economically powerful precinct for the community.&nbsp;

The future of Cunningham Pier will draw inspiration from Sydney Harbour’s luxury waterfront residences through to Dubai’s sculptural pier-edge towers, blending architectural excellence with &nbsp;resort-style living, hospitality, and public amenity.&nbsp;

The concept, described as “Saint Moritz on the Sea”, is envisioned to include:&nbsp;

<ul>
	<li>Six-star hotel accommodation and services&nbsp;</li>
	<li>World-class restaurants, bars, and public spaces&nbsp;</li>
	<li>High-end residential offerings&nbsp;</li>
	<li>Entertainment and cultural venues&nbsp;</li>
	<li>Potential cruise ship port facilities, integrating Geelong into the global travel network&nbsp;</li>
</ul>

The transformative project aims to become a magnet for tourism, investment, and innovation, while &nbsp;ensuring continued public access and connection to Corio Bay’s pristine waterfront.&nbsp;

Cunningham Pier has been operated by Costa Property Group for more than 15 years, with the City of Greater Geelong expressing strong support for strategic commercial partnerships that unlock &nbsp;tourism-led economic development for the region’s fast-growing population.&nbsp;

Tim Gurner, Founder &amp; Executive Chairman, GURNER™ Group, said the project is a "once-in-a-generation opportunity to put Geelong on the global map," adding that their version will be of what icons like the Opera House, Story Bridge or Empire State Building have done for other great cities.

“We’ll be working hand-in-hand with the Mayor, Council, the local community, and State Government to deliver something truly iconic that positions Geelong on the world stage. This project brings together everything we’ve built our brand on – world-class design, hospitality, &nbsp;lifestyle, and experience – all in one place. From six-star hotels and restaurants to the possibility of a &nbsp;new cruise ship terminal and luxury residences, the vision is extraordinary.”&nbsp;

City of Greater Geelong&nbsp;Mayor Stretch Kontelj said he welcomes the "bold and inspiring vision reimagining our beloved Cunnigham Pier as a global destination."

"This ambitious plan and the opening of Nyaal Banyul Geelong Convention and Event Centre next year have the potential to take our already world-class waterfront to even greater heights.”

Sydney Harbour, Dubai pier towers, to influence Gurner's Cunningham Pier, Geelong development

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bates-smart">Bates Smart</a> is one of Melbourne's longest standing architecture firms.

Founded in Melbourne in 1853 by Joseph Reed, the firm began as Reed &amp; Barnes and has evolved through various partnerships before adopting the Bates Smart name in the 20th century. With a continuous presence spanning more than 170 years, the practice has played a pivotal role in shaping Melbourne’s architectural identity.

In the 19th century, Bates Smart designed several of Melbourne’s enduring landmarks, including the Royal Exhibition Building (1880), a UNESCO World Heritage site, and the Melbourne Town Hall. The firm’s influence continued into the 20th century with notable works such as Ici House (1958), considered Melbourne’s first modern skyscraper and a milestone in post-war Australian architecture.

One of their landmark designs was&nbsp;The First Church of Christ, Scientist, at 336-340 St Kilda Road. The building, which is listed on the Victorian Heritage Register, was designed by Bates, Peeble and Smart with construction completed in 1922. Architecturally, the building is significant as a rare example of early twentieth century classicism applied to a religious building. Historically, the building is significant as the first church of the Christian Science movement.

Melbourne developer Time &amp; Place decided to bring Bates Smart back to the area to design their next residential apartment project, Park Modern.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=138453 project_image_fid=2138]

<a href="https://www.urban.com.au/new-apartments/park-modern-south-melbourne-1-middleton-lane-south-melbourne-vic-3205">Park Modern</a>, on one of the largest island sites on the Melbourne CBD fringe, bordered by Dorcas Street, Wells Street, and Middleton Lane, will comprise two sculptural towers. It is being positioned as a design-forward response to evolving owner-occupier preferences in the Domain precinct.

Tim Price, Director at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/time-place">Time &amp; Place</a>, says&nbsp;Bates Smart have got a footprint on this city, probably like no other architect.

"It’s a really nice kind of next chapter story, that they created from a design perspective so long ago," Price told Apartments.com.au.

Park Modern will be the third time Time &amp; Place has worked with Bates Smart, having successfully designed and delivered Collins House and Opera on St Kilda Road together.

The brief focused on creating a built form that would feel contextually appropriate while offering a contemporary evolution of inner-city apartment living.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=138453 project_image_fid=2137]

The focus for Park Modern is squarely on owner-occupiers.

“It’s not always about downsizing," Price says.

"Sometimes it’s just about creating a space which is easily maintained, lock up and leave, reflecting people’s aspirations, whether they’re entertainers, big dining room spaces, big open terraces, they’re important parts of any design consideration.”

The building includes a mix of one, two and three-bedroom apartments, as well as penthouses, with layouts and floor plans designed to suit a broad demographic. The architecture has been shaped to capture&nbsp;view corridors to the Botanic Gardens, Port Phillip Bay and the CBD skyline.

Each apartment has been oriented to maximise natural light and provide a clear outlook, elements often cited by owner-occupiers as key criteria.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=138453 project_image_fid=351806]

Rather than defaulting to a generic luxury offering, the amenity strategy at Park Modern reflects specific insights into how residents want to live. The ground floor will include co-working areas, wellness facilities, and a concierge-led lobby that blends indoor and outdoor design cues.

“Wellness has become a more thoughtful consideration, not just gyms or lap pools, but things like magnesium plunge pools, saunas, daybeds, and studio spaces for Pilates and the regular cardio workout,” says Price.

One notable inclusion is a substantial porte-cochère, a covered vehicle drop-off zone integrated into the site plan. It’s a feature rarely seen in inner-urban developments and speaks to the team’s emphasis on ease of arrival and departure for residents and guests.

A display suite for Park Modern is now open by appointment, giving prospective buyers an early look at the project.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=138453]

100 years on, Bates Smart returns to South Melbourne's Domain Precinct to design Park Modern

One of the most significant beachfront projects ever proposed for the small suburb of Miami on the Gold Coast, has taken a major step forward.&nbsp;Monaco Property Group has secured approval for <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nalu-miami-122-marine-parade-qld-4220">NALU</a>, a $500 million development comprising just 45 ultra-luxury residences on the iconic former Nobby’s Outlook site.

Acquired by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/monaco-property-group">Monaco Property Group</a> in 2024 for $70 million, the rare 7,238 sqm Marine Parade parcel boasts more than 80 metres of uninterrupted ocean frontage.

With approvals now secured, Monaco Property Group will move NALU into its delivery phase. The project has been designed by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bda-architecture">BDA Architecture</a>, who collaborated with&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/ldg-landscape-architecture">LDG Landscape Architecture</a> and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/tom-mark-henry">Tom Mark Henry Interiors</a>&nbsp;to create the low-rise building, its landscaping, and interiors.

<img alt="NALU" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3fdf578e-7cc4-4b17-bbc2-ba853522a5d8" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/122_Marine_Parade_002.jpg?VersionId=zFhJWVzX0jmCO.5iIIxNELImHesTjWS4" />

Residences will range from 237 sqm layouts to beachfront homes exceeding 1,400 sqm.

At the heart of the project is a 2,200 sqm lifestyle precinct with a bathhouse, fitness centre and resort-style pool, elevated by a concierge service.

Jonathan Grasso, Co-Founder of Monaco Property Group, said the council approval marks an exciting milestone for NALU, which will launch in Q1 2026.

“The project will now progress toward construction, working alongside our world-class collaborators to bring NALU to life," Grasso said.

“Our vision is to create a legacy project for the Gold Coast, one that not only honours the history of the site but also elevates its future, setting a new standard for coastal living in Australia. NALU embodies the pinnacle of design and location and will stand as an enduring icon of prestige and liveability.”

<img alt="NALU" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="6ae8545b-87ca-4dea-90ed-ac273ec6515d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Image7.jpg?VersionId=Wnmie4bu3x2WQonnG4Pwmh39NdZVKeOV" />

Originally developed in the 1970s as Nobby’s Outlook and later refurbished in 2019 as Nalu, the property has long held a place in the local community’s coastal identity. The new vision will build on this legacy, creating luxury residences that capture ocean views while fostering a lifestyle defined by wellness, connection, and ease.&nbsp;

Beyond its residential offering, NALU will deliver significant economic benefits to the Gold Coast through job creation and opportunities for local suppliers and contractors. Construction is anticipated to commence in early 2026, with completion expected in Q3 2028.

Monaco Property Group approved for $500 million NALU apartments on Miami beach

The most elevated residential tower in Palm Beach, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/corallo-palm-beach-5-palm-beach-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Corallo</a>, has officially launched this week, however only a handful of buyers will have an opportunity to buy in to the 17-storey project.

The $200 million mixed-use project includes ground floor dining and retail and is considered so valuable its developer, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/changfa-group">Changfa Group</a>, will be staging its release of one-, two- and three-bedroom apartments and penthouses to the market.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112194 project_image_fid=806]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/colliers">Colliers</a> International, Director, David Higgins, said the development’s location just metres from the beach on the corner of Palm Beach Avenue and the Gold Coast Highway influenced the sculptural design by the acclaimed Plus Architecture studio.

“<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/palm-beach-qld-4221">Palm Beach</a> locals understand the rare opportunity here at Corallo, particularly being the tallest building in the suburb and its proximity to the beach and local restaurants, and they’ve represented the bulk of pre-launch enquiries,” Higgins said.

“The orientation of the apartments captures views of the coastline from Surfers Paradise to Currumbin, and the diversity of floor plans and apartment types provide an exceptional level of choice.

“The first release includes just 59 one-, two and three-bedroom apartments and two half-floor penthouses, with flexible use designed to appeal to both owner-occupiers and investors."

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112194 project_image_fid=799]

In addition to the ground floor amenity, residents will also have access to a private dedicated wellness level offering 734 sqm of resort-style amenities including a pool, cold plunge, wet deck, steam room, sauna, gym, day bed, fire pit, barbecue area, dining area and yoga/stretch deck.

The project is located within walking distance of Tallebudgera Creek, Burleigh Heads village, Currumbin Alley and Palm Beach Currumbin High School. The Gold Coast Airport is under 10 minutes away.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112194 project_image_fid=814]

Higgins said Palm Beach remained a hotly contested suburb for home buyers, with prices doubling in the past five years.

“What makes Corallo so appealing to the local market is the diversity of apartment types and pricing, with one-bedroom apartments starting from $841,000 and two-bedroom apartments starting from $1.34 million,” he said.

“The ground floor retail and dining offering will further expand on Palm Beach’s village atmosphere and create a meeting place for locals, and those opportunities for connection are highly valued.”

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112194 project_image_fid=807]

The on-site sales display, which includes a fully fitted kitchen, bathroom and bedroom, will be open until early works commence in Q1 2026. Each residence at Corallo will feature premium finishes including natural stone, artisanal brickwork, and warm copper accents.

Changfa Group has a two-decade history of delivering premium developments in Australia and internationally, having recently completed its collection of premium townhomes at Lyra, Hope Island, as well as apartment projects in Leichhardt, Carlingford, and Chatswood in New South Wales.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112194]

$200 million Corallo Palm Beach launches with limited apartment release

Oversupply

pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Does Australia have a greater housing oversupply than the US? Pete Wargent

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Forecaster BIS Shrapnel this week used apartment oversupply as part of the justification for predicting (minor) price decline in some of our major cities over the next three years.
While I certainly share their concerns about over-building of high-rise apartments, I don’t agree that this means prices generally will fall in those cities.
Does a unit over-supply in inner-city Adelaide or Brisbane prevent house prices from growing in housing markets in the middle-ring and outer suburbs?
On the Gold Coast, past oversupply has resulted in key locations like Surfers Paradise having pricing levels lower than 10 years ago. But it hasn’t prevented inland housing suburbs from delivering price growth averaging 4-5 percent per year over the past decade.
So I expect price growth in housing markets in Brisbane, Adelaide, Canberra and Hobart – as well as the Gold Coast – regardless of the over-supply issue in the high-rise areas of those cities. I’m not expecting much from Sydney or Melbourne in the next few years, because those markets have passed their peaks and sales levels have fallen away dramatically, leading to price stagnation or minor decline.
The unit oversupply is a separate issue – and a serious one. It’s significant that lenders are including high-rise areas on blacklists, that developers are deferring planned projects and that vacancy rates are rising in key areas.
This week I updated vacancy rates for Brisbane inner-city suburbs for a seminar presentation. There has been a market blow-out in vacancies in all six suburbs I reference in that presentation. Most now have vacancies in the 5-6 percent range, according to SQM Research figures. 
In the space of three months, the vacancy rate for the Brisbane CBD has increased from 4.4 percent to 5 percent, while Woolloongabba is up from 4.8 to 5.5 percent and New Farm has increased from 5.3 to 6.1 percent.
These statistics will worsen as projects now under construction are completed and their apartments join the rental pool – because very few of the sales are being made to owner-occupiers.
Apartment markets with current or looming surpluses of stock make up half of the 10 markets highlighted in my No Go Zones report (the only half being regional areas impacted by the resources sector).
This really is one of the core issues facing the property industry. While the developer lobby keeps running the party line about dwelling shortages – despite two years of record building approvals pumped up by apartment projects – the big issue is the opposite problem of surplus.
It’s inevitable that, in some markets, vacancies will rise, rents will fall and values will be impacted.
As BIS Shrapnel senior director Angie Zigomanis says: “Nearly all capital cities are building apartments at record rates on the back of the recent strength in investor demand. As these projects are progressively completed, it is likely that there will not be enough tenants in a number of cities to support rents and consequently values upon completion.”
I’m amazed at how many people are still buying apartments in Surfers Paradise, inner-city Melbourne and inner-city Brisbane, and by the number of new projects seeking approval in oversupplied markets like Perth, Brisbane and Melbourne.
Across the key high-rise suburbs of the Gold Coast, Melbourne and Brisbane, 8,242 people have bought apartments in the past 12 months, including 1,588 in Surfers Paradise and 1,501 in the Melbourne CBD. 
Do these people not read? Don’t they have access to the Internet? The warnings from analysts, commentators, lenders and the Reserve Bank over the past 12-18 months add up to a deafening roar.
If you’re ignoring all that and still buying high-rise units off-the-plan in these markets - or if you’re oblivious to it because you haven’t done even the most basic research - you deserve to lose money.
 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="mailto:hotspotting@gmail.com">hotspotting@gmail.com</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
 
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Apartment over-building doesn't mean prices will fall: Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The narrative of over-supply and under-performance in Brisbane units has dominated conversations around south-east Queensland property for almost 5 years.
At January 2020, Brisbane unit values remain 11.5% below their 2010 peak to be at similar levels to 2007. But the latest data on property values, construction and population growth suggest that the story is changing. It is worth noting that over-supply is very much a unit-centric story. H
ouses across Brisbane have actually seen quite strong capital growth returns in the past few years, except for a brief, cyclical downturn over part of 2019. In the previous trough-to-trough cycle that lasted between 2012 and 2019, annual house value growth outperformed unit growth by an average of 290 basis points.
This is larger than usual discrepancies, and is above the series average difference of 130 basis points. In other words, the past cycle saw units significantly ‘under-perform’ relative to housing stock in Brisbane. The rolling annual growth figure shows that unit values have largely declined since July 2016
2016 was a time when units were being built across Brisbane at an unprecedented level. ABS completion data suggests 21,342 units were completed, against a historic average of 11,585 per year. In the December 2016 quarter, the number of unit completions even eclipsed the number of houses delivered across the state.
It is difficult to understand the exact impact this supply has on the Brisbane unit market, given that ABS completions data is currently unavailable beyond a state level on a quarterly basis. However, cross-referencing the approvals dataset with the ABS data by region series, suggests about 75% of state-wide unit construction was centred within the Greater Brisbane metropolitan region.
The time series suggests that the lag between approvals and completions varies from about 1-2 years.
Since 2015, unit approvals have been moderating in response to subdued capital growth performance. The latest quarter of data shows approvals are 46% below the decade average of approvals. This means the delivery of new units across Queensland is likely to be subdued over 2020.
CoreLogic project data suggests unit completions across Brisbane over 2020 will average about 4,000 per quarter, reflecting the long-term average. But supply is only one side of the story. Looking at how population growth has tracked relative to unit completions brings further clarity to value declines in units over 2016.
The figure below shows ‘housing demand’ relative to completions across Queensland. Housing demand represents the number of dwellings needed to accommodate additions to population at each quarter, divided by household density of 2.6. The housing demand is presented as a rolling annual average.
Future housing demand is also estimated based on the Queensland government ‘median’ scenario of population projections, suggesting about 8,000 dwellings are required to house the growing population each quarter to June 2021.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/2/20/Brisbane%20Oversupply.JPG" alt="">
There has been a convergence between the number of dwellings required and supplied since the start of 2018. With approvals data suggesting a decline in construction, and steady estimates of population growth, Queensland dwellings may fall into undersupply in the year ahead.
Rental yields are also well above the capital city average at 5.3% gross, meaning there could also soon be a turning point in investor demand. However, one unknown in this analysis would be projects that have stalled due to falling unit values in the past few years. If these re-commence, added supply could once again weigh down growth.
The turnaround in the supply-demand dynamic is already being seen in unit values. Since bottoming out in June 2019, CoreLogic indices show the Brisbane unit market has recovered 2.2%.
This fits in with a more broad-based recovery, as reductions in the cash rate have reduced the cost of servicing debt, and increased incentive to purchase property.
ELIZA OWEN is the Head of Research for Australia at CoreLogic
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Is Brisbane still oversupplied? CoreLogic's Eliza Owen

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An undisclosed major bank has a blacklist of 6700 apartment projects across Australia.
The projects are where buyers are either refused loans or are offered reduced loan to value ratios (LVR).
The list has been obtained by The Australian Financial Review from the mortgage broker, Home Loan Experts. The newspaper article only pinpointed a handful of effected projects.
<div>
<div>
It reveals projects where buyers have either been denied loans or offered less funding are 19 Larkin Street in Camperdown in inner-city Sydney, Finbar's Aire apartments in West Perth and Meriton's developments on Main Beach on the Gold Coast and 1 Janoa Place in Chiswick, inner west Sydney.
Sydney-based Home Loan Experts noted "blacklisted" projects vary across the banks. 
Areas which are consistently "blacklisted" however include Wolli Creek and Zetland (above) in inner south Sydney and the Brisbane CBD given a potential oversupply of new units or the bank reaching maximum exposure of loans on a project, managing director Otto Dargan said. 
Earlier this year RiskWise declare Zetland as the riskiest off the plan suburb in 2018.
No Lending (Exposure Reached)
19 Larkin Street, Camperdown, NSW;
58 Cairds Avenue, Bankstown, NSW;
23 Mcintyre Street, Gordon, NSW;
10 Rosamond Road, Footscray, VIC.
Restricted Lending
29 Woodroffe Avenue, Main Beach, QLD, Maximum LVR: 70%; 
1 Janoa Place, Chiswick, NSW, Maximum LVR: 80%; 
Cromwell Road, South Yarra, VIC, LVR: 80%; 
275-277 The Esplanade, Cairns North, QLD, LVR: 70%; 
36 Griffith Street, New Farm, QLD, LVR: 90%; 
659 Murray Street, West Perth, QLD, LVR: 80%
</div>
<div>A dense project is usually one which has more than 30 apartments, Dargan said.</div>
<div>
Serviced apartments or converted hotels are always considered as high-risk lending.
Assisting borrowers who have been rejected by banks is now a constant challenge, Dargan added.
</div>
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Wolli Creek and Zetland apartment projects on "bank's blacklist" 

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
Skilled job vacancies advertisements rose for an 18th consecutive month according to the Department of Employment, for the first time since March 2011. 
There was quite a jump in the month too, from 184,000 to 189,000, with the trend result now +34% higher (or +47,400 advertisements) than the October 2013 nadir. 
<img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-wACLnNcO25o/WtayckwYfTI/AAAAAAAApcs/NAfKDJ132Uk4Xc5RIzsU6j4V8F11bgsrACLcBGAs/s640/B1.jpg" width="640" height="374" data-original-height="803" data-original-width="1369">
Conditions improved everywhere, especially Western Australia, although South Australia was the notable laggard, with only a small annual change in vacancies. 
Things are certainly looking up, slowly but surely, and when the economy improves often so too does immigration rise.
Indeed, the number of permanent and long term arrivals hit the highest ever level in February 2018 at 105,630, in turn sending the annual total to a record high of 788,260.
If you've ever wondered why Melbourne's supposed oversupply of housing never materialised, here's why.
<img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-mlLxLHUvi3w/WtaybzH43kI/AAAAAAAApco/HmjblYeLJrIEUgLPlTys3ev-gY9FUkryQCLcBGAs/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="392" data-original-height="826" data-original-width="1348">
February also played host to a tourism bonanza in honour of Chinese Lunar New Year, with a record 226,900 Chinese arrivals in the month.
<img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-hUpl_MJtO1Y/Wtaycs4gKVI/AAAAAAAApcw/0dl1EY2hoNYX9IHzKotD0Fi2b1jmheH3QCLcBGAs/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="406" data-original-height="823" data-original-width="1292">
Including arrivals from Hong Kong there were more than ¼ million visitors in just 28 days.
Unprecedented. 
With 1.4 million short-term visitors over the year to February it's no surprise that China grabs the tourism headlines, though there were also record arrivals from other countries, including India at 311,500. 
<img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-IrLBHimJPGk/Wta1mkKqYzI/AAAAAAAApdQ/g4mNZRNIIbchfD7OO2gbjLq_qT7iWpkCgCLcBGAs/s640/STAs.jpg" width="640" height="378" data-original-height="830" data-original-width="1404">
February is also a key intake month for international students, and education arrivals were also extremely high at 111,500, although this was just a notch below the record high for a month set in February 2017.
Annual arrivals were above 564,000, but these numbers need to be treated with a little care due to double-counting. 
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-LY3iAQhR8ik/Wta2MZB6NVI/AAAAAAAApdY/UXhrF7oggZEDKbqNggnxpR3KXSo_FeQOgCLcBGAs/s640/Education.jpg" width="640" height="396" data-original-height="825" data-original-width="1331">
Lots of moving parts here, but the big picture is very strong demographic flows, especially into Sydney and Melbourne, coupled with booming tourism for Australia. A heady combination. 
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Why Melbourne's supposed oversupply of housing never materialised: Pete Wargent

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Despite strengthening underlying demand from the perspective of people wanting to occupy apartments in the Inner Brisbane Apartment (IBA) area, record levels of new apartment completions have tipped the market into oversupply. This has placed downwards pressure on rents and prices. This paper profiles indicators relating to demand, supply, rents and prices.
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Development in Inner Brisbane occurs mainly in large scale and high rise projects in the following locations:
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CBD/Spring Hill 
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Inner East 
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Inner North 
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West End 
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Toowong 
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Woolloongabba 
</li>
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APARTMENT PROFILE 
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According to recently released 2016 Census data, private rental apartments accounted for 56% of the total apartment stock in the IBA area. This was considerably higher than the 33% share in the Greater Brisbane region. This highlights a strong preference for investors to purchase apartments in the IBA. The share of private rental stock has also increased from the 54% recorded in the 2011 Census. Owner occupied dwellings formed 27% of IBA area stock, with a slightly greater share of these having a mortgage (being purchased).
Conversely, a significantly higher 59% of Greater Brisbane dwellings were owner occupied. Unoccupied dwellings—properties that are second homes or kept empty as a speculative investment—comprised 17% of total apartment stock across the IBA area, compared to 8% across Greater Brisbane. The increased number of unoccupied dwellings is reflective of the rising level of overseas demand, with many of these properties not entering the private rental market.
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DEMAND PROFILE 
The age profile of IBA apartment residents indicate that people first rent when moving into the IBA area, with 60% of rental households at the 2016 Census consisting of occupants aged 20 to 34 years old. If people remain in, or move into, the IBA area beyond 34 years of age, there is a far higher propensity to purchase an apartment.
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Households with a mortgage were mostly younger, with 52% of these apartment occupants aged 30 to 54 years old. Whilst within fully owned apartments in the IBA area, the demographic was much older, with 68% of occupants in these apartments aged 50 years old and over. 
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SUPPLY PIPELINE 
Sustained demand for apartment stock within the IBA area, with moderate growth from 2013 onwards can be attributed to attractive yields, low or volatile returns for other investments and low interest rates. The rise in off–the–plan sales allowed a greater number of projects to reach sufficient pre–commitment levels to obtain finance and begin construction. As a result, the IBA area has experienced a surge in apartment completions, with a record number of completions occurring each year in 2014/15, 2015/16 and 2016/17. Last year 5,700 apartments were completed, while in 2017/18 we estimate that approximately 8,300 apartments will be completed; a new record annual level of apartment completions. As a result, vacancy rates in Inner Brisbane have been rising and were 4% in December quarter 2017. 
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Falling rents and price growth has led to a softening in investor demand. Coupled with restrictions on interest only loans (a mainstay of investors) and the Queensland government introducing a stamp duty surcharge for overseas investors, we expect to see significantly fewer projects being able to achieve the pre-sales requirements for projects to commence. Sharply rising construction costs have also meant that developer’s margins have been eroded, impacting the next round of projects, particularly if there is a slump in prices making planned projects no longer viable.
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A marked trend through 2017/18 has been for developers to abandon or defer projects still in the planning stage. Across the IBA area, 52 projects amounting to well over 10,000 apartments were abandoned or deferred. Some investor demand for IBA apartment stock may be supported by its relative affordability in comparison to equivalent apartment stock in Melbourne and Sydney, although this is unlikely to absorb substantial new apartments stock while the market is in oversupply. 
IBA area completions are expected to fall slightly in 2018/19 and are then expected to revert closer to the longer term average of around the 2,000 completions per annum. Of all IBA precincts, the West End, CBD and the Inner North will see the highest number of apartments come to market. This will be followed by Toowong and Woolloongabba, with a relatively small number of apartments to come online in the Inner East and Hamilton precincts. 
 
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Demand, oversupply, rents and prices of inner Brisbane apartments: BIS

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The Bank of Queensland chairman Roger Davis has indicated he remained wary about the Brisbane apartment market.
Speaking at the bank’s annual general meeting on Thursday, Davis said cooling markets on the east coast of Australia were being watched closely.
“BOQ takes some comfort from moderating east coast housing prices and risk conditions, especially in Sydney, and sees no evidence of any systemic weakness in its housing portfolio or substantive increases in its mortgage arrears,” Davis said.
“We do remain wary of conditions in the residential apartment market, especially in Brisbane, where the RBA is warning that this financial year is “crunch time” given the oversupply, low rental increases, tightening credit conditions and ongoing targeted macroprudential regulations,” Domain Media reported.
REIQ chief executive Antonia Mercorella said the bank’s warning to shareholders was fair, but said the medium to long term outlook was much more positive.
“We’ve been dealing with concerns about the oversupply for the past two years,” she said.
“There’s really no evidence at the moment there’s a great cause for alarm. From our perspective, it’s better to take a long term view of the issue."
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Bank of Queensland remains wary of Brisbane apartment market 

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The attention on Brisbane apartment oversupply has been on the newly completed off the plan settlements.
But many established apartments in Brisbane's inner city suburb of Fortitude Valley have quietly notched up resales below their previous sales prices.
Here's a list of some apartments that Property Observer has spotted selling below their first sale prices:
1) <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property/unit-509-25-connor-st-fortitude-valley-qld-4006" target="_blank">509/25 Connor Street</a> Fortitude Valley, QLD, 4006
The one-bedroom apartment in the M&amp;A apartment block (above) sold for $320,000 in January 2017, well below its last sold price of $359,660 in 2013, according to CoreLogic RP Data.
It was on the market for 71 days, and was offered for $339,000 earlier in 2016 as well, when it was advertised as the “best deal in Fortitude Valley”.
It was listed for renting for $380 per week in August 2015 and then again a year later in September 2016 for $395 per week.
2) <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-unit-qld-fortitude+valley-124571858" target="_blank">504/25 Connor Street</a>, Fortitude Valley, Qld 4006
This two-bedroom apartment with an area of 74 sqm sold for $425,000 in April 2017 after being on the market for 74 days.
It sold below its previous sale price of $492,000 in 2015. The apartment first sold for $519,000 in 2013, when it was built, CoreLogic RP Data shows.
3) <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-apartment-qld-fortitude+valley-122526038" target="_blank">306/25 Connor Street</a> Fortitude Valley, QLD, 4006
This one-bedroom apartment close to the CBD spanning 61 sqm sold for $315,000 in March 2017, according to CoreLogic RP Data. The apartment was on the market for 337 days.
According to its advert, Ray White agent said it was returning $395 per week.
It previously sold for $371,000.
4) <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-apartment-qld-fortitude+valley-125515742" target="_blank">305/25 Connor Street</a> Fortitude Valley, QLD, 4006
Another one-bedroom unit in the same apartment development - right next door - sold below its previous price.
The latest sale in August 2017 fetched $298,000, well below its previous sale in 2010 at $361,000, CoreLogic RP Data shows.
It was on the market for 188 days.
The unit was advertised for rent at $370 per week.
5) <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-apartment-qld-fortitude+valley-125980430" target="_blank">212/25 Connor Street</a> Fortitude Valley, QLD, 4006
This two-bedroom unit, built in 2013, sold recently for $370,000 after being on the market for just 12 days. However, the sale price was well below its initial sold price of $499,000, CoreLogic RP Data shows.
Even rents have fallen. First advertised for rent in February 2016 for $495 per week, the asking rate was dropped to $480 within a week and earlier this year it was advertised for $450 per week.
6) <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property/unit-1016-8-church-st-fortitude-valley-qld-4006" target="_blank">1016/8 Church Street</a> Fortitude Valley, QLD, 4006
This two-bedroom unit in Mosaic Apartments last changed hands for $425,000 in November 2107.
The unit dropped significantly in price from its previous sale in 2012 when it fetched $542,225, CoreLogic RP Data shows.
Asking rents have fallen too from $500 per week in 2015 to $440 by April 2017.
7) <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property/unit-5-125-robertson-st-fortitude-valley-qld-4006" target="_blank">5/125 Robertson Street</a> Fortitude Valley, QLD, 4006
This two-bedroom apartment was built in 2000 fetched $400,000 at its recent sale in July 2017, just marginally above its previous selling price of $394,000 in 2010, according to CoreLogic RP Data.
The unit fetched $305,000 in 2006.
It was last advertised for rent at $400 per week. Asking rents have, however, been falling. It was on the market for $475 per week rent previously in 2010.
8) 10/53 Warry Street Fortitude Valley, QLD, 4006
This two-bedroom unit sold for $319,000 in July 2017. Curiously, it sold for $318,000 earlier this year in January. But overall, it has appreciated from its sale in 1998 for $115,000, CoreLogic RP Data shows.
It was last advertised for rent at $380 per week.
 
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Up to $120,000 cheaper: eight loss making established apartment resales in Fortitude Valley 

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The academic report by researchers from the Australian National University (ANU) that outlines the potential over supply of housing in Sydney misunderstands the strong swing to inner city urban living, says the Urban Taskforce. 
The academic report by Australian National University researchers Cukko Joseph and Ben Phillips seems to be based on search algorithms rather than the reality of the market place.
The researchers utilise the search algorithm Newton-Raphsin in the Gregwt SAS Code in their 22 page report to conclude that there is a major oversupply of new homes in Australian cities but NSW government data indicates an undersupply.
The ANU report focusses on a supposed over supply of 5,900 new homes in Inner Sydney but rents are still high in this region indicating an undersupply. The NSW Government predictions are that 40,000 new homes are required each year for Metropolitan Sydney for 20 years yet we are currently only at 35,000 new homes a year.
The Sydney inner city housing market is being driven by a swing to urban living where young couples and older downsizers are looking for a cosmopolitan urban lifestyle that is close to amenities and public transport. Predictions on housing demand must understand this change in living preferences that is quite different to a few decades ago.
The study does acknowledge that its methodology does not account for real demand for new housing. A ‘real demand’ analysis would incorporate consumer preferences and other economic drivers, such as interest rates or employment’. The study also admits there are limitations in its analysis – in terms of its conceptual basis and the data it relies upon. It also states that the study ‘does not conclude that people’s housing needs are being met’.
While all research reports are useful, inputs into the current discussion on housing supply and demand must be balanced with the extensive demographic research undertaken by government agencies.
Our concern with the ANU statements is that they could encourage governments at state and local level to put a brake on housing supply by adding further levies and by slowing down planning approvals. The end product would be to dramatically reduce supply and so drive up the price of housing creating affordability problems.
The Urban Taskforce urges governments at all levels to reduce levies on new housing and to simplify the planning system so that affordable housing can be delivered for those keen to own their own home as well as for those that prefer to rent.
CHRIS JOHNSON is chief executive officer of property development industry group Urban Taskforce and can be contacted <a href="https://www.urbantaskforce.com.au/index.php?option=com_content&amp;view=article&amp;id=97&amp;Itemid=126#.Vdaart55dFI" target="_blank">here</a>.
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cjohnson-8xfqfuuCSq

ANU predictions of housing over supply in Sydney misunderstanding the swing to urban living

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Apartment purchases in more than 100 Brisbane suburbs, circulated on a confidential list, will face new lending restrictions from next Monday from the home town lender, Suncorp.
The list covers 39 Brisbane postcodes.
Under Suncorp's new rules, it will no longer accept investment loan applications for apartments where the buyer does not have a minimum deposit of 20 percent or more.
The exceptions are existing home loan applications and those received before Friday.
"Our settings have been adjusted for postcodes based on recent weakness in the investment unit market in Brisbane, with evidence of a reduction in prices," a Suncorp Bank spokesman said.
4000 Inner Brisbane City
4005 New Farm; Tenneriffe
4006 Fortitude Valley; Bowen Hills; Newstead; Herston
4007 Ascot; Hamilton
4009 Eagle Farm
4010 Albion
4011 Clayfield; Hendra
4012 Nundah; Toombul, Wavell Heights
4013 Northgate
4029 Royal Brisbane Hospital
4030 Kalinga; Lutwyche; Windsor; Wooloowin
4031 Gordon Park; Kedron
4032 Chermside
4051 Alderly; Enoggera; Gaythorne; Grange; Newmarket; Wilston
4053 Brookside Everton Park; Everton Hills, McDowall; Mitchelton; Stafford
4054 Arana Hills, Keperra
4059 Kelvin Grove; Red Hill
4060 Ashgrove
4061 The Gap
4064 Paddington; Milton
4065 Bardon
4066 Toowong; Auchenflower; Mount CootTha
4067 St Lucia
4068 Chelmer; Indooroopilly; Taringa 
4072 University of Qld
4075 Graceville; Corinda; Sherwood; Oxley
4101 Highgate Hill; South Brisbane; West End
4102 Dutton Park; Woolloongabba
4103 Annerley; Fairfield; Fairfield Gardens
4104 Yeronga
4105 Moorooka; Tennyson; Yeerongpilly
4120 Greenslopes; Stones Corner
4121 Holland Park; Wellers Hill; Tarragindi
4122 Mansfield; Mount Gravatt; Wishart
4152 Camp Hill; Carina; Carindale
4169 East Brisbane, Kangaroo Point
4170 Cannon Hill; Morningside; Norman Park; Seven Hills
4171 Balmoral; Bulimba; Hawthorne
4172 Murarrie 
 
The Australian Financial Review who obtained the list reports developers, such as Consolidated Properties, claim Brisbane has been cruelled by restrictions on financing set up to ease speculative apartment buying in Melbourne and Sydney.
Suncorp is a Brisbane based top 20 ASX-listed company with $97 billion in assets which employs 13,400 people and serves close to nine million customers across Australia and New Zealand. 
It commenced business in 1916 as the State Accident Insurance Office. 
The RBA has repeatedly warned buyers of the likely oversupply in Brisbane apartments.
Last week the bank noted to date, the adjustment in the Brisbane apartment market has not resulted in significant stress.
"Settlement failures appear to have remained in line with historical norms, although the peak of new supply is yet to come.
"Some developers, however, report that tighter financing conditions are contributing to delays in the settlement of off-the-plan purchases, as valuations below the purchase price reduce the amount banks will lend.
"In liaison, industry participants and banks express confidence that the Brisbane market will continue to absorb the new supply despite tighter financing conditions for buyers.
"Continued weakness in rents, and so rental income, remains a debt-servicing risk for investors," the RBA said. 
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