Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.

Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;

David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;

“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;

Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;

At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.

Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.

Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.

David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.

“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;

Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;

Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;

However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.

Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.

The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.

Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.

“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.

“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" />

Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.

The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.

“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.

“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" />

Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.

“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.

The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.

“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”

The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.

The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.

Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.

Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.

The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.

“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.

“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.

“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”

The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.

“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”

From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.

“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”

The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.

“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.

Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.

“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.

“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”

The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.

“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.

Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.

&nbsp;

Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

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The RBA’s increased focus on financial stability, particularly record high household debts amid rising housing prices will likely keep the central bank from further rate cuts in 2017, according to a recent report by the NAB.
Recent comments from RBA officials raise the possibility that “macro-prudential measures may be stepped up” and a further rate cut is unlikely anytime soon, said the Forward View – Australia,  report for March by NAB Group Economics.
“We have removed our expectation of a 25bp rate cut in late 2017, although continue to flag the risk of further monetary policy easing at some point given our concerns about economic growth and the labour market in 2018,” it said.
It said the property markets in Sydney and Melbourne “continue to defy belief in 2017, with property prices showing no real signs of slowing despite tightening credit conditions and concerns about affordability”.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/15/NABHousingPrices.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/03/15/NABHousingPrices.png" alt="">
The report said the economy’s contraction in Q3 was only a temporary setback as it bounced back in Q4 with broad-based growth amid higher commodity prices.
But labour income continued to be weak, a fact pointed to recently by RBA Governor Philip Lowe who said that low wages growth and record high household debt are a sobering combination.
The report said housing finance has remained strong, especially for investors. Auction volumes are also solid, and auction clearance rates are up from the levels seen at the same time last year – suggesting the markets remain tight. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/15/NABAuctionClearance.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/03/15/NABAuctionClearance.png" alt="">
Elsewhere, price movements were relatively mixed in February, but the trends have generally been fairly positive in most markets. 
“Even Perth prices have been showing signs of stabilisation,” it said.
NAB says recent government measures to ease housing affordability, especially for first home buyers (FHB’s), could actually push prices higher.
The Victorian government recently announced stamp duty cuts for house sales under $600,000.
It said government measures along with the “the surprising momentum could suggest some further upside risk to our price forecasts”. 
Although, no further rate cuts would offset it to some extent. 
The research said it was leaving “our property price forecasts unchanged. Our national forecasts for 2017 are 3.4 percent for houses and 0.8 percent for units.”
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prateek24-ezbwHMbNAk

NAB drops rate cut forecast for 2017 

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Australians and businesses overwhelmingly think our country is a great place to live and have a business.
However, Australian consumers and businesses are anxious about what the future holds.
National Australia Bank (NAB) today released a new report which asks consumers and businesses to explore life, work and running a business in Australia – now and in the future.
“Nine in 10 Australians told us our country’s open spaces, people and lifestyle and access to affordable and quality healthcare are the biggest contributors to liveability and their choice to call Australia home,” NAB Chief Economist Alan Oster said.
“There are some clear differences between states. Consumers in SA/NT are much more positive in relation to travel time, living costs and housing – and in Victoria, a love of sport means entertainment options feature more prominently for liveability than any other state.”
Businesses too are optimistic, with 8 in 10 (82%) surveyed viewing Australia as a great place to have a business.
“Australian business people see the economy, our close proximity and strong connections to Asia and the growing population as some of Australia’s key strengths,” Mr Oster said.
“Making the most of these strengths is vitally important for Australia, to support more growth opportunities for businesses and the millions of Australians they employ.”
But despite their current optimism, the report found only 1 in 2 people and 60% of businesses think Australia will be a great place to live and have a business in 10 years’ time.
“There is a clear message of anxiety in the future coming from Australian consumers and businesses,” Mr Oster said.
“Australians identified access to social welfare, living costs, tax levels, jobs and housing affordability as the key factors they expect will deteriorate the most in the next 10 years.
Consumers are saying they expect very little progress in the areas already holding Australia back now.
“While a person’s income didn’t affect current perceptions of liveability, there was a large future disconnect between high income earners (earning over $100,000) and those earning under $35,000 a year.”
Businesses are slightly more optimistic.
“Australian businesses expect the things that make our country great now to continue to make us great in the future – this includes our population, proximity to Asia and our innovative and entrepreneurial economy.”
“These insights on how Australians feel about our country may be able to help businesses and governments discover what we’re concerned about, and prompt discussion on how to tackle some of the big issues,” Mr Oster said
About 2,300 consumers and 500 businesses took part in the survey, and full findings can be viewed at news.nab.com.au
NAB Chairman Dr Ken Henry will be speaking about the research today in his address to the Centre for Economic Development.
You can find a full version of his speech at <a href="https://www.news.nab.com.au" target="_blank">news.nab.com.au</a>.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Life in the lucky country: What makes Australia great?

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Moderate growth in the US is expected to continue, but with some strengthening later in the year if, as expected, the new Administration delivers a fiscal stimulus, according to NAB’s latest update.
The President has indicated details of his tax plans will be released in 2-3 weeks.
However, the size of any stimulus is likely to be more limited than the President’s election policies would suggest due to the underlying weak budget outlook.
The US economy continues along the same moderate growth path it has experienced in its recovery from the Global Financial Crisis.
Growth slowed in the December 2016 quarter, following a particularly strong headline result in the September quarter.
The underlying details were reasonable: consumption growth was solid, residential investment resumed growing again and business investment showed some further improvement.
Temporary drags came from a fall in power consumption and the reversal of last quarter’s spike in food exports, although they were partly offset by faster inventory accumulation.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/10/NAB-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/10/NAB-1.jpg" alt="">
More positively, business sector readings for the US from the ISM have been trending up in recent months.
In January, the manufacturing ISM moved to its highest level since late 2014 and, while the non- manufacturing ISM declined slightly, it remained at a robust level.
Consumer sentiment has also received a post-election boost, and is back to pre-GFC levels.
The labour market is also in good shape, with strong growth in non-farm employment reported for January 2017.
Nevertheless, there has been a trend slowing in employment growth as the US moves closer to full employment, although it remains strong enough to pull down unemployment over time.
While the unemployment rate rose in January to 4.8%, reversing some recent gains, this was due to a rise in workforce participation.
Further evidence of the strength of the labour market comes from initial jobless claims which are at historically low levels.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/10/NAB-2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/10/NAB-2.jpg" alt="">
The January employment report also showed a slowdown in wages growth; however, the data are volatile and the trend still appears to be upwards.
Improved consumer and business sentiment since the election, as well as the rise in the stock market, and on-going strength in the labour market are positive signs for the growth outlook.
Measures of future manufacturing capital expenditure intentions have also improved recently.
However one headwind is the appreciation of the US dollar since August which we think has a bit further to go notwithstanding some pull-back in recent weeks.
That said, the manufacturing sector, which is particularly trade exposed, appears to be largely unaffected so far if the ISM survey is anything to go by.
Along with a higher dollar, interest rates have increased which is likely to weigh on sectors such as consumer durables and housing.
Changes in credit conditions overall are threatening to turn into another headwind.
Lending standards for business loans tightened somewhat last year, although the most recent Fed Senior Loan Officer Survey suggests that this process has paused for commercial and industrial loans.
Moreover, credit conditions are starting to tighten for consumer loans.
Balancing this, however, credit spreads (relevant for corporates accessing non-bank finance) have eased.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/10/NAB-3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/10/NAB-3.jpg" alt="">
Rising oil prices may also hold the economy in check as the US is a net importer of energy.
That said, while a clear negative for household consumption, some businesses will benefit from higher oil prices.
In particular the energy sector but also manufacturers and businesses that provide inputs to the sector.
“Reflecting these various factors, we expect further moderate growth rates in coming quarters before some strengthening later in the year, assuming the President delivers a fiscal stimulus to the economy.
For 2017 we are forecasting GDP growth of 2.1%, and 2.3% in 2018.
We have not made any allowance for the US imposing additional trade barriers or changes that will significantly reduce net immigration.
These represent downside risks to the outlook,” the update stated.
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Higher interest rates to impact housing in the United States: NAB

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National Australia Bank (NAB) and realestate.com.au have announced a five year partnership aimed at combining the property search with securing finance.
“By partnering with NAB, we are building a truly innovative solution that will marry property search and property finance,” said Tracey Fellows, CEO of REA Group, which operates realestate.com.au.
“We will be assisting home buyers throughout their entire property journey, whether it be buying, renting, investing or selling.”
Anthony Cahill, COO at NAB, said that the partnership would combine online property searching and home lending in a manner unseen both nationally and globally.
“We’re combining our respective expertise to deliver more to Australian property buyers and create a game-changing experience,” he said.
With the partnership just announced, details on the exact products to be offered have yet to be announced.
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Realestate.com.au website partners with NAB to offer home loans

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Commercial property professionals continue to be confident over the next two years and sentiment is improving, the NAB Commercial Property Survey for Q3 shows.
The NAB Commercial Property Index rose 11 points to +16, with sentiment higher across the four surveyed sectors of Office, Retail, Industrial and CBD Hotels.
Market sentiment remained strongest in NSW, which rose 17 points over the quarter to +55 and Victoria (up 2 to +30), consistent with the stronger business conditions also exhibited in those states.
<a href="/images/2016/11/09/Commercial%20property%20index.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/11/09/Commercial%20property%20index.jpg" alt="">
In contrast, sentiment fell a further 6 points in Western Australia to -54.
“Stronger sentiment this quarter came despite moderations in business conditions over the quarter, as recorded by the NAB Quarterly Business Survey,” NAB senior economist Rob de Iure said.
“While sentiment has improved, gains are narrowly based on the eastern seaboard with NSW and Victoria outperforming the rest of the country in sentiment, capital growth and income returns.
“Looking forward, confidence levels from respondents were also high, with gains in the CBD Hotels, Office and Industrial sectors offsetting lower confidence in Retail – likely driven by weaker retail business conditions and subdued consumer spending.”
The Q3 Survey shows nearly two-thirds of all developers looking to start projects were looking at the residential sector, however only 34% planned to start work in the next six months – dropping to 18% in 18 months’ time.
<a href="/images/2016/11/09/Property%20table%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/11/09/Property%20table%201.jpg" alt="">
“Survey respondents may be telling us that the current housing construction cycle, particularly for high density properties, may slow in the coming two years,” Mr de Iure said.
“And while the number of property developers planning to source more capital to fund their development was broadly unchanged quarter-on-quarter, nearly half (48%) were unsure of their intentions over the next 12 months – up from 31% in the second quarter.”
In addition, the Survey found more property developers are using land-banked stock to start new work, which may reflect the high levels of building activity in the residential sectors and land shortages in some cities.
Property professionals on balance also report that it is getting harder to obtain debt and equity for their businesses – with professionals expecting access to funding to remain difficult for the next 6-12 months.
About 240 property professionals participated in the Q3 Survey.
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East-West sentiment divide deepens in NAB Commercial Property Survey

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GUEST OBSERVER
The Q3 NAB SME Survey suggests a loss of momentum in SME business conditions and confidence but this is against the exceptionally strong results in Q2.
Overall, conditions and confidence remain above their long-term averages which suggest relatively solid levels of underlying activity.
A further narrowing in the gap between conditions experienced by SMEs and larger businesses as indicated by the NAB Quarterly Business Survey suggests that the pace of growth is now more consistent across small and large businesses.
The NAB SME Survey is the leading business survey of small businesses in Australia, and complements the comprehensive Quarterly NAB Business Survey.
It offers a rich repertoire of insights into factors affecting smaller firms’ conditions by state, industry and size, as well as an assessment of their outlook for investment and output.
<a href="/images/2016/10/31/NAB%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/31/NAB%201.jpg" alt="">
However, the base of industries which reported positive conditions shrank in the quarter and this warrants close monitoring for signs of further weakening in the near future. The sustained weakness in retail conditions is of particular concern as it has the potential to affect other affiliated industries such as wholesale and transport.
Meanwhile, we continue to witness strong conditions in tertiary services such as health, business and financial services.
SME business confidence eased marginally in the quarter to +5, but continues to exceed its long-term average of +2.
The fall in SME confidence was in spite of the RBA’s 25bps cut to the cash rate in August, perhaps a reflection of the absence of a sustained depreciation in the AUD despite the rate cut.
<a href="/images/2016/10/31/NAB%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/31/NAB%202.jpg" alt="">
In Q3, business conditions were mixed by state. NSW, Victoria and WA reported relatively stable conditions, SA improved but was still lacklustre, while Queensland deteriorated sharply. The readings for Queensland in particular have been volatile recently so we will need additional information to determine the underlying trend for the state,” said Mr Oster.
NSW and Victoria continue to outperform in terms of conditions, while WA remains the weakest.
The ongoing mining downturn continues to weigh on WA conditions, while the recent improvements in commodity prices have done little to assuage the pessimism of SMEs from the state, with WA continuing to be the least confident state as well. Apart from WA, SA was the only other state to report negative confidence. Meanwhile, NSW, Victoria and Queensland tied in the top spot for confidence at +7 index points.
<a href="/images/2016/10/31/NAB%203.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/31/NAB%203.jpg" alt="">
 
SME forward orders rose by 1 point to +4 index points in Q3, which is notably above the long-term average of -1 index points and consistent with the result for general businesses as reported in the QBS.
The generally positive readings for forward orders since late 2013 are broadly in line with a moderate recovery in real economic activity.
By industry, the quarterly movements were mixed. Apart from manufacturing, retail and transport, all other industries reported positive forward orders.
<a href="/images/2016/10/31/Survey%204.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/31/Survey%204.jpg" alt="">
Forward orders for finance (up 16 points to +17) and health services (up 9 points to +16) jumped by the most in the quarter to record the strongest results, pointing to the continuing outperformance of services sectors.
Forward orders for manufacturing fell the most (down 8 points to -1). Meanwhile, transport and retail, both at -3, were the weakest in the quarter.
This is consistent with the lacklustre conditions and confidence experienced by the retail sector at the moment.
<a href="/images/2016/10/31/Survey%205.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/31/Survey%205.jpg" alt="">
The SME stock index improved marginally to +5 index points, to be above the long-term average of +2 index points and that of larger businesses indicated by the QBS (at +2).
The improvement was largely driven by business services and health, both rising by 6 points to +13 and 0 respectively.
The stock index for business services was also the highest in the quarter, followed closely by wholesale (down 6 points to +11). The relatively high stock levels reported by the wholesale sector is consistent with a higher capacity utilisation rate and resilient forward orders in the quarter.
<a href="/images/2016/10/31/Survey%206.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/31/Survey%206.jpg" alt="">
That said, the sharp deterioration in the conditions of larger wholesale businesses as indicated by the QBS could signal an imminent weakening of wholesale SMEs in coming quarters.
Meanwhile, stocks for manufacturing (down by 11 points to +3) and property services (down 9 points to -7) fell by the most in the quarter, with the latter the weakest across industries.
The two consecutive quarterly falls for property services are consistent with a lower transaction volume in the housing market recently.
<a href="/images/2016/10/31/Survey%207.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/31/Survey%207.jpg" alt="">
The non-seasonally adjusted cash flow index was the strongest in Q3 for financial services (at +24), followed by business services (at +22) and the weakest for transport (-9) and retail (-8).
Overall, SME price indicators point to relatively contained price pressures.
Growth in input costs (purchase costs, overheads and labour costs) have generally eased over the last two years and have contributed to improved margins readings.
<a href="/images/2016/10/31/Survey%208.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/31/Survey%208.jpg" alt="">
That said, final price growth appears to have lost some momentum in recent quarters – probably indicative of strong downstream competition – and is consistent with a subdued inflation outlook.
Business conditions for SMEs eased by 2 points to +5 index points in Q3, but remain slightly above the long-run average of +4.
Encouragingly, low-tier SMEs continued to report positive business conditions after recording the first positive reading in two years in Q2 to be around its long-term average.
SME conditions are now only marginally below those of general businesses indicated by the NAB Quarterly Business Survey (QBS), but this mostly reflects a notable fall in the conditions of the latter. SME business confidence also eased in the quarter to +5 (from +6 in Q2), but remains above the long-term average of +2.
<a href="/images/2016/10/31/Survey%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/31/Survey%201.jpg" alt="">
Two of the three components that make up SME business conditions fell, with trading conditions (down 5 points to +11) and profitability (down 2 points to +4) both retreating from their recent peaks but continuing to stay above their long-term averages.
Despite a sustained period where trading and profitability conditions exceed their historical average, the employment index was in negative territory for the eight consecutive quarter at -1, which was unchanged from the quarter before.
The lack of momentum in SME employment conditions are seemingly at odds with the relatively more robust reports by general businesses in the QBS, where the employment index has been tracking above long-term average levels since H2 of 2015.
<a href="/images/2016/10/31/Survey%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/31/Survey%202.jpg" alt="">
This possibly reflects the weaker financial capacity of SMEs to hire new employees or a greater difficulty for them to find suitable labour compared to their larger counterparts.
In Q3, business conditions were mixed by state. NSW, Victoria and WA reported relatively stable conditions, SA improved but was still lacklustre, while Queensland deteriorated sharply. The business conditions index for Queensland gave up all its the gains, dropping by 10 points from Q2 to be back at +1 again.
The eastern non-mining states of NSW and Victoria continue to outperform at +13 and +10 respectively, while WA remains the weakest of all states at -14. Despite the sharp fall in conditions, Qld was the only state which reported improved confidence in the quarter (up 2 points to +7) to tie with NSW and Victoria in having the strongest confidence.
Meanwhile, stronger commodity prices in the quarter had done very little to bolster confidence of SMEs in WA, which reported a decline in confidence (down 5 points to - 6) in the quarter to be the weakest of all states.
Most SME industry sectors reported weaker conditions in the quarter, with services sectors continuing to outperform more traditional sectors in general. Similar to Q2, health, finance and business services occupied the top three spots, while transport (at -7) replaced construction (at +2) as the weakest sector, followed by retail (at - 4).
The wholesale sector managed to hold onto its recent gains in conditions to be at +8 index points, a sign that perhaps some of the earlier upstream cost pressures had ameliorated. However, weak growth in wholesale final price suggests that competitive pressures downstream are elevated.
Business confidence by industry paints a more positive picture overall, with more sectors reporting an improvement rather than a decline in the quarter. Apart from property and retail, all other industries recorded positive confidence.
<a href="/images/2016/10/31/Survey%203.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/31/Survey%203.jpg" alt="">
Somewhat surprisingly, confidence of the property sector suffered the sharpest decline in the quarter to be the weakest across industries, even though dwelling prices continue to grow strongly in major markets of Sydney and Melbourne, and more recently, ACT.
Compared to the larger businesses in the QBS, SME business conditions outperform general businesses in finance, wholesale and property, but are significantly weaker in transport.
Analysis by firm size shows that low-tier SME firms continue to report weaker conditions and confidence compared to their larger counterparts, although the fact that their conditions and confidence indices are positive remains encouraging.
Alan Oster is group chief economist, National Australia Bank, and can be contacted <a href="https://business.nab.com.au/author/alan-oster/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Property confidence dips as SME business conditions remain upbeat overall: Alan Oster

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A confidential National Australia Bank borrowers’ blacklist of more than 600 towns and suburbs across Australia has emerged where it has capped lending to property buyers.
It is because of what the bank sees as continued or growing risks in the housing market.
The listed has 120 postcodes across the nation will need a larger deposit of as much as 30 percent to be eligible for a loan “to ensure that we are lending responsibly and sustainably”, according to internal documents used by the bank to explain its change in strategy to mortgage brokers.
NAB’s list is divided into A category postcodes, where loan-to-value ratios are capped at 70 percent, and B category, where it is 80 percent.
Rural Western Australia, South Australia, Northern Territory and Queensland are most affected, with buyers needing a 30 percent deposit to qualify for a loan.
Those wanting to by an inner city apartment in many suburbs in Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne will need a 20 percent deposit.
Group A 70 percent LVR
WA
6390 Boddington*
6429 Coolgardie*
6436 Menzies, Ularring
6437 Leinster, Sir Samuel
6438 Leonora, Lake Darlot
6440 Bandya, Beadell, Cosmo Newberry, Lake Wells, Laverton, Neale
6442 Kambalda East and West
6442 Meekatharra*
6646 Wiluna, Lake Carnegie, Little Sandy Desert
6710 Cane, Onslow, Peedamulla, Talandji, Yannarie
6713 Dampier
6714 Antonymyre, Balla Balla, Banynton, Bulgarra, Burrup, Cleaverville, Cooya Pooya, Gap Ridge, Gnoorea, Karratha, Karratha Industrial Estate, Maitland, Mardie, Millars Well, Mulataga, Nickol, Pegs Creek, Sherlock, Stove Hill
6716 Pannawonica*
6718 Roebourne, Whim Creek
6720 Cossack, Point Samson, Wickham
6721 Port Hedland*
6722 South Hedland*
6725 Eighty Mile Beach*
6728 St George Ranges*
6751 Tom Price*
6753 Newman
6754 Paraburdoo
6758 Nullagine
6760 Marble Bar
QLD
4413 Auburn*
4415 Columboola*
4420 Baroondah*
4455 Wycombe*
4521 Mount Pleasant*
4581 Eurong, Fraser Island, Inskip, Rainbow Beach
4660 Apple Tree Creek*
4674 Oyster Creek*
4678 Bororen, Foreshores, Rodds Bay, Turkey Beach
4680 Gladstone*
4715 Mount Murchison*
4717Blackwater
4720 Emerald, Yammala
4737 Sarina*
4738 Ilbilbie, Koumala
4740 Beaconsfield*
4741 Mount Ossa*
4742 Burton, Eaglefield, Elphinstone, Hail Creek, Kemmis, Mount Britton, Nebo, Oxford, Strathfield, Turrawulla, Valkyrie
4743 Suttor, Glenden
4744 Moranbah
4745 Cotherstone, Dysart
4746 May Downs, Middlemount
4800 Conway*
4804 Collinsville, Mount Coolon, Mount Wyatt, Newlands, Scottville, Springlands
4805 Bowen*
4820 Campaspe*
SA
5600 Whyalla, Whyalla Playford
5601 Point Lowly*
5608 Whyalla Norrie, Whyalla Stuart
5609 Whyalla Jenkins
5725 Olympic Dam, Roxby Downs NT
0885 Alyangula
TAS
7030 Brighton*
7155 Kettering
7467 Queenstown, Lake Margaret
7468 Macquarie Heads, Strahan
7469 Zeehan, Trial Harbour, Renison Bell, Granville Harbour
7470 Rosebery
Group B 80 percent LVR
NSW
2000 Barangaroo, Dawes Point, Haymarket, Millers Point, Sydney, The Rocks
2008 Chippendale, Darlington
2017 Waterloo, Zetland
2019 Banksmeadow, Botany
2037 Forest Lodge, Glebe
2067 Chatswood
2112 Denistone East, Putney, Ryde
2118 Carlingford
2127 Newington, Sydney Olympic Park, Wentworth Point
2140 Homebush
2141 Berala, Lidcombe, Rookwood
2142 Camellia, Clyde, Granville, Holroyd, Rosehill
2144 Auburn
2146 Toongabbie
2150 Harris Park, Parramatta
2153 Baulkham Hills, Bella Vista, Winston Hills
2166 Cabramatta, Canley Vale, Canley Heights, Lansvale
2168 Ashcroft, Busby, Cartwright, Green Valley, Heckenberg, Hichinbrook, Miller, Sadleir
2194 Campsie
2195 Lakemba, Wiley Park
2199 Yagoona
2205 Arncliffe, Turella, Wolli Creek
2208 Kingsgrove
2209 Beverly Hills, Narwee
2210 Lungarno, Peakhurst, Riverwood
2211 Padstow
2220 Hurstville
2222 Penhurst
2566 Varroville, Bow Bowing, Minto, Raby, St Andrews
2767 Bungarribee, Doonside, Woodcroft
2769 The Ponds
VIC
3000 Melbourne CBD
3004 St Kilda Road Central
3006 South Bank, South Wharf
3008 Docklands
3067 Abbotsford
QLD
4000 Brisbane City, Petrie Terrace, Spring Hill
4006 Bowen Hills, Fortitude Valley, Herston, Newstead
4010 Albion
4032 Chermside,
4101 Highgate Hill, South Brisbane, West End
4102 Dutton Park, Woolloongabba
4215 Labrador, Southport
SA
5000 CBD Adelaide
5001 CBD Adelaide
WA
6000 Perth CBD
6003 Highgate, Northbridge
6004 East Perth
6005 Kings Park, West Perth
6100 Burswood, Lathlain, Victoria Park
6103 Rivervale NT
800 Darwin
* = and surrounds
“NAB takes into account a range of economic factors, and regularly monitors the performance of local markets to ensure we continue to lend responsibly and sustainably,” a bank spokesperson told The Australian Financial Review.
“We recognise that no two suburbs are the same, and there are some geographic areas across Australia which have been impacted by local economic conditions.
"As a responsible lender, we adopt strategies in these geographic areas that seek to reduce the risk to our customers and our business.”
The bank is still lending to borrowers in the named suburbs.
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The 600 suburbs where the NAB requires more than a 10 percent deposit for home loans

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The NAB Consumer Anxiety Index fell to 59.2 points in Q3 2016 (60.2 in Q2 2016) to its lowest level in more than 3 years.
According to NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster consumers felt less stressed about their jobs, government policy and the cost of living, with anxiety related to their health spending and retirement funding unchanged.
The cost of living, along with government policy, is still the biggest driver of overall consumer anxiety. But with low inflation persisting, cost of living anxiety fell to its lowest level since the Survey began in early 2013.
“It was pleasing to see just 1 in 4 Australian consumers now reporting “high” anxiety over their cost of living, compared to more than 1 in 3 in mid-2014” said Mr Oster.
By state, consumer anxiety was highest in Queensland and lowest in NSW and Victoria.
Women were far more anxious than men, particularly those aged 30-49 who were also the most anxious across all demographic groups.
“Women reported higher stress for all drivers of anxiety, especially when it came to their retirement funding and the cost of living, and women aged 30-49 were also one of the very few groups still reporting above average levels of anxiety” said Mr Oster.
Despite lower levels of overall anxiety, consumer spending behaviours are still very conservative and dominated by spending on “essentials” such as paying down debt, utilities and medical expenses.
“On a positive note, however, we have loosened our purse strings a little with fewer consumers cutting back on non-essential spending” said Mr Oster.
Australians were also less anxious in regards to their current financial position, with all drivers of household financial stress causing less concern.
Financing retirement, providing for our family’s future, health expenditure and the ability to raise emergency funds remain the biggest drivers of financial stress.
In an attempt to measure financial resilience, Australian consumers were asked for the first time to rate how well they have been able to cover their basic living expenses and any unforseen financial expenses such as a major home or car repair in the last 12 months.
Australian consumers believe they are only “moderately” placed to cover their basic living expenses.
“Men were better placed than women in all age groups to meet their basic living expenses and unforseen expenses. Having a higher income also helps a lot” said Mr Oster.
Looking forward, NAB expects moderate but easing household consumption growth over the next few years, with real household consumption growth forecast to average around 2.7% for 2016, before slowing to 2.1% in 2017 and 2.3% in 2018.
<a href="/images/2016/09/15/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-15%20at%2012.46.13%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/09/15/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-15%20at%2012.46.13%20PM.png" alt="">
Consumer Behaviour Survey Q3 2016
 Consumer anxiety fell again in Q3 and we are worrying less about the cost of living. We are still spending conservatively, although there were signs our purse strings loosened. We were less anxious about our current financial position, with all drivers of household stress causing less concern. But we rate our financial resilience only “moderate” when it comes to our ability to meet life’s expenses.
Consumer anxiety falls to its lowest level since mid-2013 
Australian consumers are becoming less anxious, with NAB’s Consumer Anxiety Index falling to 59.2 points in Q3 2016 (60.2 in Q2 2016). The index currently stands at its lowest level in more than 3 years and is down from a survey high 64.4 points in mid-2014.
NAB consumer anxiety trends
<a href="/images/2016/09/15/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-16%20at%209.43.55%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/09/15/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-16%20at%209.43.55%20AM.png" alt="">
Lower consumer anxiety in Q3 2016 was underpinned by reduced concerns relating to our job security, government policy and the cost of living. Anxiety levels related to our health spending and ability to fund our retirement were largely unchanged.
Notwithstanding recent improvements, the cost of living and government policy continue to be the biggest drivers of our consumer anxiety.
NAB consumer anxiety index
<a href="/images/2016/09/15/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-16%20at%209.46.34%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/09/15/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-16%20at%209.46.34%20AM.png" alt="">
However, we are continuing to see some very encouraging improvements in anxiety stemming from our cost of living, which has now fallen to its lowest level since the survey began in 2013. Indeed, just 1 in 4 (25%) Australian consumers are now reporting “high” anxiety over their cost of living, down from just over 37% (more than 1 in 3 consumers) in mid-2014.
But consumer anxiety continues to vary widely across demographic groups. Overall, it was highest in Q3 for middle-aged women (65 points), divorced Australians (63 points) and the self-employed (61.9 points). It was lowest for men over 50 (54.4 points), the highest income earners (55.3 points), young men (55.6 points) and widows (56.1 points).
By state, anxiety was highest in Queensland (60.1 points), where cost of living concerns were notably above all other states and in SA/NT (59.9 points) and WA (59.8 points) where stress relating to job security played a bigger role. Not surprisingly, consumer anxiety was lost lowest in NSW/ACT (58.5 points) and Victoria (59 points) - where economic growth is also leading the country.
Consumer anxiety was also a much bigger issue for women (61.7 points) than for men (56.7 points) - and across all age groups - with women also reporting notably higher stress across all key drivers, especially in relation to their ability to fund their retirement and cost of living.
Consumer anxiety by group
<a href="/images/2016/09/15/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-16%20at%209.49.29%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/09/15/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-16%20at%209.49.29%20AM.png" alt="">
It was also noticeable that middle-aged women, consumers living in Tasmania, and those that are self- employed were the only groups still reporting above average levels of anxiety - and in all cases due to above average stress relating to their jobs, health expenditure and ability to fund retirement.
Our spending behaviours
 
Despite falling levels of consumer anxiety, changes in consumer spending patterns remain largely conservative.
In Q3, more Australians increased their spending in relation to paying down debt. More Australians also increased their spending on utilities, medical expenses, transport and they added to their savings, superannuation and investments.
In contrast, more consumers in net terms are still cutting their spending on “non-essentials”, particularly eating out, entertainment, major household items, charitable donations and credit use.
Spending behaviours in Q3 (Net)
<a href="/images/2016/09/15/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-16%20at%209.53.02%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/09/15/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-16%20at%209.53.02%20AM.png" alt="">
On a more positive note, the chart below shows that fewer Australian consumers increased their spending on “essentials” over the past year, while fewer of us also cut back on many “non-essentials”.
However, our overall spending behaviours remain very conservative and we are cutting back where we can. This pattern is also broadly consistent across most states (see State Spending Behaviours below).
Changes in spending behaviour (Net)
<img src="/images/2016/09/15/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-16%20at%209.55.47%20AM.png" alt="">
How our spending is changing
Another way to show consumer spending behaviour is by grouping all “non essentials” (entertainment, eating out, major household items, home improvements, personal goods and travel), “essentials” (medical, utilities, transport, groceries and children) and “financial spending (paying off debt, savings/super/investments and use of credit).
Consumer behaviour by type of spending
<a href="/images/2016/09/15/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-16%20at%209.57.55%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/09/15/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-16%20at%209.57.55%20AM.png" alt="">
Our spending behaviours in relation “essentials” and our financial behaviour were largely unchanged in Q3. But “non-essential” spending sentiment (a broad proxy for consumer confidence) improved to -16, its highest reading since Q4 2015.
Our current financial position
We were less anxious overall about our current financial position in Q3 (63.1 points). But this varied according to where we lived, our age and gender.
NSW/ACT (60.2 points) was the least anxious state and Queensland (64.7 points) the most anxious. SA/NT (61.9 points) was the only state to report higher anxiety over their current financial situation.
Anxiety over our financial position
<a href="/images/2016/09/15/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-16%20at%2010.00.25%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/09/15/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-16%20at%2010.00.25%20AM.png" alt="">
Men over 50 (54.7 points) reported the lowest anxiety in relation to their current financial position. Middle aged women (69.6 points) were the most stressed, while women over 50 (63.1 points) were the only group to report higher anxiety in Q3.
Not surprisingly, there was a clear relationship between financial stress and income, with stress levels considerably lower in the highest income group (54.5 points) compared to the lowest income group (69.2 points).
All drivers of household financial stress causing less concern
Reduced stress over our current financial position in Q3 was supported by lower concern over all key drivers of household financial stress.
However, we continue to identify financing retirement, providing for our family’s future, health expenditure and our ability to raise emergency funds as the biggest drivers of financial stress, but somewhat less so than in the previous quarter and notably less so than at the same time last year.
Drivers of financial stress
<a href="/images/2016/09/15/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-16%20at%2010.03.50%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/09/15/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-16%20at%2010.03.50%20AM.png" alt="">
Financial resiliance - our ability to cover life's expenses
Australian consumers were asked for the first time how well they have been able to cover their basic living expenses and any unforseen financial expenses (such as major home or car repairs, major illness, funeral or wedding expenses, birth of a child etc.) in the last 12 months - essentially how financially resilient do they think they are.
Australian consumers believe they are only “moderately” placed to cover their basic living expenses (72 out of 100 where 100 = “completely” resilient). Their ability to meet unforseen financial expenses is even lower (61.4 points) and across all key demographic groups.
But men were better placed than women (in all age groups) to meet both their basic living expenses and unforseen expenses. Having a higher income also helps a lot.
Interestingly, consumers in Tasmania rated highest for their ability to meet their basic living expenses (ahead of Victoria and SA/NT), while consumers in NSW/ACT and Victoria were best placed to meet unforseen financial expenses. Low income earners struggled most with unforseen expenses.
Ability to cover our living costs 
<a href="/images/2016/09/15/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-16%20at%2010.06.46%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/09/15/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-16%20at%2010.06.46%20AM.png" alt="">
The view from NAB economics
Household consumption appeared to have lost some momentum in recent quarters, possibly reflecting the slowdown in the labour market since late last year, as well as persistently soft wages growth consistent with compositional shifts in the labour market towards part-time jobs which tend to be lower-paid.
The Q2 National Accounts revealed a relatively soft household final consumption expenditure result of 0.4% q/q, with slowing retail spending causing a more apparent drag on overall household spending activity. That said, the broader trend of services consumption outpacing goods consumption continued, with health, hospitality and financial services being the largest contributors in the quarter.
Meanwhile, higher frequency data such as the official ABS retail trade data, our monthly NAB Online Retail Index and NAB Business Survey pointed to further softening in sales and conditions in the retail sector in recent months.
A stabilisation in the household saving ratio at around 8% - a level higher than the trough reached in Q4 2015 of 7.5% - suggests a return of consumer caution which could weigh on household spending in the near-term.
While clearly more downside risks to the consumption outlook have emerged from the above factors, they should be partly offset by the positive impetus stemming from a sustained low interest environment and renewed strength in house price growth, especially in Sydney and Melbourne.
We now expect moderate but easing household consumption growth over the next few years, with real household consumption growth forecast to average around 2.7% for 2016, slowing to 2.1% in 2017 and 2.3% in 2018.
Spending behaviours by state
New South Wales/ACT 
Spending behaviours in NSW/ACT were largely unchanged in Q3. There were some cutbacks in medical, transport and credit use, but more consumers increased spending on major household items, travel, charity and saved more.
<a href="/images/2016/09/15/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-16%20at%2010.09.31%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/09/15/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-16%20at%2010.09.31%20AM.png" alt="">
 Victoria
Notably more Victorian consumers increased their savings, super and investments and spent more on transport and travel in Q3. In contrast, cutbacks were most apparent in regards to their credit use, spending on children and entertainment. Most other areas of spending were broadly unchanged.
<a href="/images/2016/09/15/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-16%20at%2010.11.51%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/09/15/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-16%20at%2010.11.51%20AM.png" alt="">
Queensland
Fewer consumers in Queensland increased their spending on “essentials” in Q3, particularly in regards to transport. A lot more consumers also cut back on their use of credit, but they more added to their savings, superannuation and investments.
In contrast, more consumers spent on “non essentials”, particularly home improvements, travel, eating out, charitable donations and personal goods. The number of consumers in Queensland that have cut back their spending on “non-essentials” over the past year is also noticeably lower.
<a href="/images/2016/09/15/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-16%20at%2010.13.43%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/09/15/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-16%20at%2010.13.43%20AM.png" alt="">
Western Australia
More consumers in Western Australia increased their spending across most categories in Q3 2016. In particular, there were some big increases in the number of local consumers spending more on charitable donations, their savings, superannuation and investments and on utilities relative to the last quarter. Spending fell in just 2 areas - credit usage and on medical expenses.
<a href="/images/2016/09/15/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-16%20at%2010.15.43%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/09/15/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-16%20at%2010.15.43%20AM.png" alt="">
South Australia
Spending behaviours in South Australia in Q3 were dominated by big increases in the number of consumers saving more and spending more on groceries and utilities, but also by notable increases in the number spending more on “non-essentials” such as entertainment, travel and major household items. Fewer consumers increased spending on transport, charitable donations, medical and paying down debt.
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Tasmania
Spending behaviours in Tasmania remain volatile. In Q3, they were dominated by large increases in the number of consumers spending more on home improvements, major household items, their savings, utilities, personal goods and medical. Fewer consumers increased spending on eating out and their children or used credit.
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Consumers less stressed about jobs, government policy and cost of living: NAB

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The housing market sentiment has softened amongst property professionals, according to the first NAB residential property survey since the official RBA cash rate cut in May
The NAB Residential Property Index fell to +3, from +6 in Q1 2016, to remain below its long term average of +13.
Sentiment moderated in all states except South Australia and the Northern Territory, which rose 19 points, albeit still in negative territory.
New South Wales joined Victoria as the best performing state, followed by Queensland.
Confidence has however improved, with the national index rising to +29 next year, and +36 in two years’ time.
The NAB Residential Property Survey for Q2 2016 also found that respondents expect Victoria and Queensland to provide the best capital returns over the next one to two years.
NAB chief economist Alan Oster said that it's still a mixed picture across Australia, with house price expectations for the next 12 months holding up well in the eastern states.
He suggested that the house price expectations will stay flat in South Australia and Northern Territory, and will continue to fall sharply in Western Australia.
NAB Economics has also revised its national house price forecasts for 2016 upwards to 5.1% (from 1.5%). Unit price forecasts were revised up to 3.6% for 2016.
“Our upwards revisions in price forecasts reflects the strength in prices to date. Over the last six months, Sydney and Melbourne prices have increased by an annualised rate of nearly 19% and 12% respectively,” Oster said.
“However, while there is significant amount of uncertainty over the outlook for prices, we expect that this renewed momentum in the housing market is unlikely to be sustained over the longer term.”
Looking out to 2017, NAB forecasts prices to be flat across most capital cities, with falls particularly in Perth, Melbourne and Brisbane.
While the declines in Perth largely reflect economic conditions, the falls in Melbourne and Brisbane can be partly attributed to added supply and weaker investor demand.
“NAB is forecasting a much softer residential property market, with 0.5% growth in house prices and nearly 2% decline in unit prices in 2017,” Mr Oster said.
NAB Economics continues to hold the view that residential property prices are unlikely to experience a sharp ‘correction’ without a trigger from a shock that leaves unemployment or interest rates sharply higher.
The residential property survey series also measures foreign buyer activity in the Australian housing market.
Market share of foreign buyers in new Australian housing markets fell for the third straight quarter in a row – to 10.4%. A sharp fall in foreign buyer activity in Queensland was offset by growth in Victoria and a modest rise in NSW. Market share of foreign buyers in established markets was unchanged at 7.2%.
 
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Housing market sentiment softens following the RBA rate cut: NAB residential property survey

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The overall share of foreign buyers in Australian property markets fell to a two-and-a-half year low in both new and established property markets in the first quarter of March, according to NAB's latest Residential Property Survey.
Foreign buyers accounted for just 11.8% of total new property sales (14.4% in Q4), while it was 7.2% in established property markets (8.6% in Q4).
In new property markets, foreign buyers fell to 10.7% in VIC (16.4% in Q4) - its lowest level in two years and significantly below survey high levels of 32.5% in Q4’14. Foreign buyers were also less prevalent in NSW, where their market share fell to 11.1% (11.7% in Q4). This down from a survey high 21% in Q1’15 and now at its lowest level since Q4’13. In WA, foreign buyers of new property accounted for just 2.9% of total demand (5.8% in Q4) down from around 10- 11% in the first half of 2015.
In contrast, the share of foreign buyers in new property markets in QLD continued to grow, rising to 21.9% in Q1’16 (20.9% in Q4). The market share of foreign buyers in new property markets has grown for three consecutive quarters and may suggest that they are being attracted by lower average prices there. In established property markets, foreign buyers accounted for just 7.1% of total demand in VIC - a 3 year low and down from 8.6% in Q4. Foreign buyers were also less active in NSW (7.8% vs. 9.4% in Q4) and QLD (6.7% vs. 8.9% in Q4), but they increased their market share in WA to a Survey high 8.8% (7.2% in Q4).
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Type of property purchased by foreign buyers
Overall, 51% of all foreign purchases of Australian residential property were for apartments (53% in Q4), 31% houses (32% in Q4) and 18% for re-development (16% in Q4). However, these ratios continue to vary widely by state.
In VIC, 39.4% of sales in Q1’16 were for apartments (down from 44.2% in Q4), 37.6% were houses (35.2% in Q4) and almost 1 in 4 (23.1%) was land for re-development (20.6% in Q4). In NSW, 54.6% of all properties purchased by foreigners were apartments (53.9% in Q4) and 29.9% houses (32.4% in Q4). The share of property bought for re-development purposes rose to 15.9% (14.1% in Q4). In QLD, apartments made up 58.8% of all sales (60.8% in Q4) - still by far the biggest share among the main states. Houses accounted for just 24.3% of foreign sales (26.4% in Q4), but purchases for re-development purposes climbed to 17.5% (12.8% in Q4). In WA, apartment sales accounted for 48.4% of all foreign purchases (50.8% in Q4), houses for 34.5% (29.8% in Q4) and land for re-development 17% (19.4% in Q4).
Price range of property purchased by foreign buyers
Around 31% of apartments purchased by foreigners were valued at less than $500,000 (33.7% in Q4) while 40% were valued between $500,000-$1 million (41.7% in Q4). Just over 16% were in the $1-2 million range (14.8% in Q4), with the number of sales in the $2-5 million range unchanged at 7.9%. Just over 1 in 20 foreign buyers (5.5%) purchased apartments valued above $5 million (3.3% in Q4). There remain some interesting differences across states. In the apartment market, more foreign buyers in WA (42.8%) purchased properties worth less than $500,000 than in any other state. In NSW, just 18.4% of apartment purchases were below $500,000, probably reflecting a lower stock of apartments at this price level. Almost one in two apartments purchased in QLD were in the $500,000-$1 million range, compared to just 34% in VIC.
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It was also notable that one in four purchases in NSW were in the $1-2 million range, compared to around 12-14% in all other states. More foreign buyers in NSW (6.6%) and VIC (4.9%) purchased apartments valued over $5 million than in any other state. In the house market, around 63% of foreign purchases were valued below $1 million. Around 25% were for properties below $500k and 38% between $500,000-$1 million. Just over 23% of all house sales were in the $1-2 million range, 11% in the $2-5 million range and 4% over $5 million. By state, approximately 57% of houses sold to foreigners in VIC and 46% in NSW were valued below $1 million, compared to 72% in QLD and 82% in WA. Around 35% of houses purchased in NSW and 25% in VIC were valued between $1-2 million, with 15% and 13% of houses in NSW and VIC respectively valued between $2-5 million. Almost 7% of houses in VIC and just over 4% of houses in NSW were sold for more than $5 million. 
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