Mortgage Volume

<div>Australia's largest mortgage aggregator Australian Finance Group (AFG) reported in its&nbsp;Mortgage Index&nbsp;that year-on-year total quarterly mortgage volumes increased by +8 percent to a record $15.19 billion.</div>

<div>&nbsp;</div>

<div>The index is not seasonally adjusted.&nbsp;</div>

<p><br />
<img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="/images/2016/10/10/AFG4.jpg" /><br />
&nbsp;</p>

<div>Since the standard variable home loan rate fell below 7 percent in Australia in the September 2012 quarter, the average mortgage size has increased by +$90,000 or +23 percent.&nbsp;</div>

<p><a href="/images/2016/10/10/AFG2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>

<p><img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="/images/2016/10/10/AFG2.jpg" /></p>

<div>&nbsp;</div>

<div>Investor market share ticked back to 32 percent in the quarter - well down from the 2015 peak of 40 per cent - in part due to more restrictive lending criteria, combined with widespread fears of an apartment oversupply.&nbsp;</div>

<p><a href="/images/2016/10/10/AFG5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a><br />
<img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="/images/2016/10/10/AFG5.jpg" /></p>

<div>According to AFG the lift in mortgage volumes was largely driven by homeowners looking to save, with refinancers accounting for 38 percent of activity, up from 36 percent in the prior year comparative quarter. AFG noted that home loans are widely available from below 4 percent.&nbsp;</div>

<p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">State versus state</span></strong><br />
&nbsp;</p>

<div>At the state level the average mortgage size hit new highs in New South Wales ($597,656) and Queensland ($400,566). South Australia also notched a fresh high average mortgage size of $379,405. Elsewhere average mortgage sizes were either at or below previous peaks.&nbsp;</div>

<p><a href="/images/2016/10/10/AFG1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>

<div class="separator"><img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="/images/2016/10/10/AFG1.jpg" /></div>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<div>Quarterly mortgage lodgement volumes hit record highs in each of the three most populous states plus South Australia, offset by declines in Western Australia and the Northern Territory.&nbsp;</div>

<div class="separator">&nbsp;</div>

<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/10/10/AFG3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>

<div class="separator"><img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="/images/2016/10/10/AFG3.jpg" /></div>

<div class="separator">&nbsp;</div>

<div>Victoria continues to defy gloomy predictions with heady levels of buyer activity, while Queensland also recorded an very large year-on-year uplift, even after accounting for possible shifts in AFG's market share.&nbsp;</div>

<p><a href="/images/2016/10/10/AFG6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>

<div class="separator"><img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="/images/2016/10/10/AFG6.jpg" /></div>

<p><br />
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong>&nbsp;</p>

<div>The AFG figures are always well worth a read given their materiality.<br />
<br />
The headline result was very strong, but it does need to be recognised that a significant volume of mortgage finance presently relates to refinancing in the prevailing low interest rate environment.<br />
<br />
These data suggest to me that interstate buyers are likely to see better results in Queensland than elsewhere, at least initially (for the right property type, at any rate, which does not mean high-rise apartments). The economy of Western Australia remains in recession, and as a result Perth may not come on to the radar of interstate buyers until 2018.&nbsp;</div>

<div>&nbsp;</div>

<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT&nbsp;is the co-founder of&nbsp;<a href="https://allenwargent.com/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">AllenWargent</a>&nbsp;property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and&nbsp;<a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em></span></p>

<p><em>His&nbsp;latest book is&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>


pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Average mortgage size hits new high: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<div>
<div>EXPERT OBSERVATION</div>
<div> </div>
<div align="justify">Private sector credit (effectively outstanding loans) rose by 0.2 per cent in May after a 0.4 per cent rise in April. It was the slowest monthly growth in 16 months. Credit was up 4.8 per cent over the year – equalling the slowest rate in four years.</div>
<div align="justify"> </div>
<div align="justify">Investor housing finance was flat in May with annual growth easing to a record low of 2.0 per cent. The data has been compiled since 1990.</div>
<div align="justify"> </div>
<div align="justify">In seasonally-adjusted terms, new detached house sales fell by 4.4 per cent in May to stand 12.8 per cent down on the peak in December and stand 14.1 per cent lower than a year ago.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Private sector credit figures have implications for finance providers, retailers, and companies dependent on business spending.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/6/29/CJ%20Graph%201.JPG" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
</div>
<div>
<div><strong>What does it all mean?</strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div align="justify">The regulators have been clearly successful in slowing investor demand for home loans. Investor home lending is still growing, but at the slowest pace in 28 years of records.</div>
<div align="justify"> </div>
<div align="justify">Overall Aussie consumers and businesses remain wary about taking on more debt. Credit is broadly lifting in line with the nominal growth of the economy with owner-occupier home loans and business lending providing the main supports. The Reserve Bank will be comforted by recent trends.</div>
<div align="justify"> </div>
<div align="justify">Banks will need to work harder for the affections of borrowers and savers. Aussies are reluctant to borrow and returns on savings are arguably more attractive in the sharemarket.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong>What do the figures show?</strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Private sector credit (effectively outstanding loans)rose by 0.2 per cent in May after a 0.4 per cent rise in April. It was the slowest monthly growth in 16 months. Credit was up 4.8 per cent over the year – equalling the slowest rate in four years.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Housing credit grew by 0.4 per cent in  per cent May and has risen 0.4-0.5 per cent a month over the past year. But annual growth eased from 6.0 per cent to 5.8 per cent – the lowest growth rate for over four years.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Owner occupier housing credit rose by 0.6 in May to stand 7.9 per cent higher over the year.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Investor housing finance was flat in May with annual growth easing to a record low of 2.0 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Personal credit fell for the fourth straight month, down 0.1 per cent in May to be down 1.3 per cent over the year. It was the biggest annual decline in six years.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Business credit fell by 0.2 per cent in May with annual growth easing from an 8-month high of 4.3 per cent to 3.8 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Both M3 and Broad Money rose by 0.4 per cent in May to be up 2.5 per cent for the year. Broad Money is growing at the slowest annual pace in 25½-years.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Term deposits with banks fell by $0.6 billion to $581.1 billion in May. Annual growth fell from 3.2 per cent to a four month low of 3.1 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Loans and advances by banks grew by 4.9 per cent in the year to May. And loans and advances by non-bank financial intermediaries rose by 4.4 per cent over the year, down from a 9½-year high of 7.1 per cent in March.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Deposits at banks rose by just 0.1 per cent in May to stand 2.5 per cent higher than a year ago.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In seasonally-adjusted terms, new detached house sales fell by 4.4 per cent in May to stand 12.8 per cent down on the peak in December and stand 14.1 per cent lower than a year ago.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Housing Industry Association reported: The monthly reduction in May was synchronised across the surveyed states – sales fell by 6.8 per cent in New South Wales, 4.6 per cent in Victoria, 5.0 per cent in Queensland, 0.2 per cent in South Australia and 2.4 per cent in Western Australia.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>No data was published by the HIA for multi-unit sales.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong>What is the importance of the economic data?</strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Private sector credit figures are released by the Reserve Bank on the last working day of the month. Credit is separated into three categories – housing, other personal and business. Private sector credit is effectively the amount of loans outstanding in the economy. If growth in lending is strong then it suggests that credit from financial institutions is freely available, underlying demand for assets such as cars and houses is firm and that the price of credit (interest rates) is attractive.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Housing Industry Association releases data on the sales of new homes each month. The HIA collects the data each month from a sample of Australia's largest 100 home builders. The survey covers around 15 per cent of the home building industry.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/6/29/CJ%20graph%202.JPG" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong>What are the implications for interest rates and investors?</strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Home building and buying activity will be driven by those seeking to live in the dwellings rather than looking at homes as a potential investment. The latest trends in lending should allay concerns about the potential for a massive oversupply of homes developing.<br><br>
</div>
<div>The reduction in investor home loan demand should ensure that home prices grow at more sustainable rates over the next few years.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Credit and money growth remain sluggish, keeping inflationary pressures at bay.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/6/29/CJ%20Graph%203.JPG" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>CommSec expects official interest rates to remain on hold until 2019.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><em>Craig James is chief economist at CommSec.</em></div>
</div>
</body></html>

cjames-5S2v74qSNK

Record slowdown for investor home loans: Commsec's Craig James

<div>Australia's largest mortgage aggregator Australian Finance Group (AFG) reported in its&nbsp;Mortgage Index&nbsp;that year-on-year total quarterly mortgage volumes increased by +8 percent to a record $15.19 billion.</div>

<div>&nbsp;</div>

<div>The index is not seasonally adjusted.&nbsp;<br />
<img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="/images/2016/10/10/AFG4.jpg" /><br />
&nbsp;</div>

<div>Since the standard variable home loan rate fell below 7 percent in Australia in the September 2012 quarter, the average mortgage size has increased by +$90,000 or +23 percent.&nbsp;</div>

<p><a href="/images/2016/10/10/AFG2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>

<p><img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="/images/2016/10/10/AFG2.jpg" /></p>

<div>&nbsp;</div>

<div>Investor market share ticked back to 32 percent in the quarter - well down from the 2015 peak of 40 per cent - in part due to more restrictive lending criteria, combined with widespread fears of an apartment oversupply.&nbsp;</div>

<p><a href="/images/2016/10/10/AFG5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a><br />
<img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="/images/2016/10/10/AFG5.jpg" /></p>

<div>According to AFG the lift in mortgage volumes was largely driven by homeowners looking to save, with refinancers accounting for 38 percent of activity, up from 36 percent in the prior year comparative quarter. AFG noted that home loans are widely available from below 4 percent.&nbsp;</div>

<p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">State versus state</span></strong><br />
&nbsp;</p>

<div>At the state level the average mortgage size hit new highs in New South Wales ($597,656) and Queensland ($400,566). South Australia also notched a fresh high average mortgage size of $379,405. Elsewhere average mortgage sizes were either at or below previous peaks.&nbsp;</div>

<p><a href="/images/2016/10/10/AFG1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>

<div class="separator"><img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="/images/2016/10/10/AFG1.jpg" /></div>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<div>Quarterly mortgage lodgement volumes hit record highs in each of the three most populous states plus South Australia, offset by declines in Western Australia and the Northern Territory.&nbsp;</div>

<div class="separator">&nbsp;</div>

<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/10/10/AFG3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>

<div class="separator"><img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="/images/2016/10/10/AFG3.jpg" /></div>

<div class="separator">&nbsp;</div>

<div>Victoria continues to defy gloomy predictions with heady levels of buyer activity, while Queensland also recorded an very large year-on-year uplift, even after accounting for possible shifts in AFG's market share.&nbsp;</div>

<p><a href="/images/2016/10/10/AFG6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>

<div class="separator"><img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="/images/2016/10/10/AFG6.jpg" /></div>

<p><br />
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong>&nbsp;</p>

<div>The AFG figures are always well worth a read given their materiality.<br />
<br />
The headline result was very strong, but it does need to be recognised that a significant volume of mortgage finance presently relates to refinancing in the prevailing low interest rate environment.<br />
<br />
These data suggest to me that interstate buyers are likely to see better results in Queensland than elsewhere, at least initially (for the right property type, at any rate, which does not mean high-rise apartments). The economy of Western Australia remains in recession, and as a result Perth may not come on to the radar of interstate buyers until 2018.&nbsp;</div>

<div>&nbsp;</div>

<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT&nbsp;is the co-founder of&nbsp;<a href="https://allenwargent.com/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">AllenWargent</a>&nbsp;property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and&nbsp;<a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em></span></p>

<p><em>His&nbsp;latest book is&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>


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