<p>Buyers considering a residence at boutique Gordon townhouse development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/lume-gordon-43-47-dumaresq-street-gordon-nsw-2072">Lume</a>&nbsp;now have another reason to bring forward their decision.</p>

<p>For a limited time, purchasers of a residence at Lume will receive a BMW iX3 50 electric SUV, valued at more than $120,000, as part of their purchase. The offer is designed to add value for buyers while complementing the lifestyle envisioned for the architecturally designed Upper North Shore development.</p>

<p>Scott Timmins, Development Manager at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/winim">WINIM</a>, said the partnership was created to provide buyers with a compelling reason to act.</p>

<p>"In today's market, buyers need a compelling reason to act now, and the BMW partnership was designed to create that catalyst. We wanted to add genuine value for our future purchasers. Choosing the all-electric BMW iX3 50 also reflects the values behind LUME, forward-thinking design, innovation and a more sustainable way of living. It's a premium incentive that complements the lifestyle our buyers aspire to and rewards those who commit early."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7354 project_image_fid=374893]</p>

<p>Delivered by WINIM in partnership with Burtonwood Investment Partners, Lume comprises 14 architecturally designed two, three and four-bedroom townhomes created for families seeking the space of a freestanding house with the ease of modern, low-maintenance living.</p>

<p>The three-storey residences, designed by award-winning architecture practice <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a>, have been tailored for families and multi-generational living, featuring private internal lifts, flexible lower-level spaces, generous open-plan living and entertaining areas, media rooms, and landscaped outdoor spaces with custom outdoor kitchens.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Inside, engineered oak flooring, bespoke dining joinery with integrated wine fridges and backlit bars, sculptural porcelain bathrooms, Parisi freestanding baths and Astra Walker tapware create interiors that balance functionality with refined finishes.</p>

<p>Each townhome has been designed to combine generous internal spaces with sustainability initiatives such as EV charging infrastructure, while <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/arcadia-landscape-architecture">Arcadia</a>'s landscaped communal areas, centred around a restored creek line and native planting, encourage residents to connect with nature and spend more time outdoors.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7354 project_image_fid=269527]</p>

<p>Rothelowman's Gary Tsui said the architecture was conceived to respond carefully to its Upper North Shore setting.</p>

<p>"Our vision was to create elegant, uplifting homes that draw on and positively contribute to the local character through meticulously considered design and an interaction with the surroundings."</p>

<p>The communal landscape has been designed as more than an open space between homes. Arcadia's Ben Newell and Kate Phillips said the adjoining reserve provided an opportunity to create a distinctive natural retreat for residents.</p>

<p>"Just as waterways carve their way through Ku-ring-gai's landscape, a raised boardwalk weaves through the reserve, connecting the homes to this tranquil oasis."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7354 project_image_fid=374892]</p>

<p>Located just 300 metres from <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/gordon-nsw-2072">Gordon</a> Village and Gordon railway station, Lume offers convenient access to Sydney's CBD while placing residents close to some of the North Shore's leading schools, including Ravenswood, Pymble Ladies' College and Knox Grammar. Lane Cove National Park, Gordon Golf Club and a range of cafés and restaurants further reinforce the family-focused lifestyle on offer, with the BMW iX3 50 complementing everything from local trips around Gordon to weekend drives and city commutes.</p>

<p>Construction is underway with completion expected in mid-2027.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=7354]</p>


Joel Robinson

Boutique Gordon townhomes now come with a BMW iX3 50

<p>Two apartments have sold for more than $10 million at EADE Byron Bay, setting some of the highest apartment prices ever achieved in the coastal town and underlining the growing appetite for luxury beachfront apartments in Australia's most popular coastal locations.</p>

<p>The $210 million project by Vitale Property Group has now secured more than $70 million in sales, led by residences that changed hands for $12.75 million and $11.75 million.</p>

<p>The record-breaking transactions reinforce the shift occurring in Byron Bay's premium property market, where affluent downsizers and lifestyle buyers are increasingly opting for high-end apartments over large beachfront homes.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/eade-byron-bay-29-shirley-street-byron-bay-nsw-2481">EADE Byron Bay</a> occupies a rare 6,000 sqm absolute beachfront site on the corner of Shirley and Milton Streets overlooking Main Beach and The Wreck surf break, just 350 metres from Byron Bay's town centre.</p>

<p>The 25-residence development is the first beachfront apartment project approved in Byron Bay in more than a decade and is currently under construction, with completion expected in May 2027.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=145590 project_image_fid=359521]</p>

<p>The project has attracted a mix of local Byron Shire residents downsizing from larger homes, alongside interstate buyers from Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane seeking a permanent coastal lifestyle without compromising on space.</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/hayball">Hayball</a> and with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/alexander-co">Alexander &amp; Co</a>, EADE comprises&nbsp;10 garden apartments ranging from 284 sqm to 622 sqm, nine with private pools, five full-floor apartments and 10 rooftop residences with private plunge pools, expansive outdoor entertaining areas and uninterrupted ocean views.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=145590 project_image_fid=359527]</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/vitale-property-group">Vitale Property Group</a> Managing Partner Chris Vitale said the project's combination of scale, location and limited future supply was driving buyer demand.</p>

<p>"There isn't another beachfront holding in Byron Bay of this size and position that could be developed again," Vitale said.</p>

<p>"Buyers are responding to the scarcity and the irreplaceability of a site of this calibre and to floorplans they can't find elsewhere in the market.</p>

<p>"We are seeing buyers place significant value on quality, space, design, resort-style amenities and the rarity of the location. The sales achieved to date demonstrate that discerning purchasers recognise the long-term significance of what is being created at EADE Byron Bay.</p>

<p>"Many are coming from larger homes in the Byron region, or from Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane, and are after the space, security and convenience, without the upkeep of a house."</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=145590 project_image_fid=359523]</p>

<p>The Byron Bay project follows Vitale Property Group's delivery of the Mondrian Hotel and Private Residences at Burleigh Heads, with EADE continuing the developer's focus on luxury coastal developments.</p>

<p>Residents will have access to a resort-style swimming pool, gymnasium, sauna, cold plunge pool, concierge services and dedicated workspaces, while the project is targeting an 8-Star Green Star rating.</p>

<p>EADE Byron Bay is being exclusively marketed by Projx Australia in conjunction with WHITEFOX Projects.</p>

<p>WHITEFOX National Projects Director Phillip Rand said demand had been driven predominantly by owner-occupiers.</p>

<p>"We are seeing buyers at EADE place significant value on quality, space, design, resort-style amenities and the rarity of this location," Rand says.</p>

<p>"The sales achieved to date demonstrate that purchasers at this level recognise the long-term significance of what is being created at EADE Byron Bay."</p>

<p>Residences at EADE Byron Bay are currently priced between $4.75 million and $15.95 million.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=145590]</p>


Vitale breaks Byron Bay records with EADE sales flurry 

<p>When buying an apartment, most people compare the big-ticket items first. Floorplans. Kitchens. Balcony size. Natural light. The view.</p>

<p>But there's one everyday consideration that often doesn't come up until after moving in: how parcels are delivered.</p>

<p>As online shopping has become part of everyday life, parcel deliveries have shifted from an occasional event to a regular occurrence. Australians spent a record $82.6 billion shopping online in 2025, with almost one in every four retail dollars now spent digitally.</p>

<p>For apartment residents, that can present a challenge.</p>

<p>If nobody is home to accept a delivery, parcels may be redirected to a nearby Post Office, left in a building lobby or common area, or require building management to step in. In higher-density buildings, where dozens or even hundreds of residents may receive deliveries each day, parcel management has become an increasingly important part of everyday living.</p>

<p>That can create a range of frustrations. A missed delivery often means making time to collect a parcel elsewhere, while packages left unattended in foyers or mail areas can create clutter and increase the risk of theft. What seems like a minor inconvenience can quickly become a recurring issue for residents who shop online regularly.</p>

<p>It's one of those details that rarely features in a display suite but can have a noticeable impact once residents move in.</p>

<p>As a result, buyers are beginning to look beyond traditional apartment features and consider how a building supports day-to-day convenience, including whether there are secure options for receiving deliveries.</p>

<p>Australia Post's Parcel Lockers provide one solution.</p>

<p><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/CkF2oKmlACg?si=C50sDaoUUn2nuLmq" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></p>

<p>Rather than having a parcel delivered directly to an apartment, eligible deliveries can be sent to a nominated Parcel Locker. Once the parcel arrives, residents receive a notification through the AusPost app or SMS and can collect it using a QR code or one-time PIN at a time that suits them.</p>

<p>The Parcel Locker network now includes more than 1,500 locations nationwide, with installations at Post Offices, shopping centres, transport hubs and an increasing number of residential developments. By providing a secure collection point, Parcel Lockers help reduce missed deliveries and avoid parcels being left unattended in common areas.</p>

<p>For developers, parcel infrastructure is becoming another way to improve the resident experience. Rather than relying on concierge staff or leaving parcels in communal spaces, secure collection points help streamline deliveries while preserving the presentation and functionality of shared areas.</p>

<p>For buyers, it's a reminder that the best apartment features aren't always the most obvious.</p>

<p>A generous floorplan or quality finishes might help narrow the shortlist, but the conveniences that simplify everyday life, whether that's EV charging, secure bike storage or reliable parcel delivery, often become the features residents appreciate most once they're living there.</p>


The apartment feature many buyers don't think about, until their first missed delivery

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/hg-developments">HG Developments</a> is doubling down on Maud Street in Newstead, filing plans for a new apartment tower just a few doors down from its under-construction Aire Newstead development.</p>

<p>Recently submitted to Brisbane City Council, the proposal is for an 18-storey building designed by bureau^proberts, which has drawn heavily on Brisbane's subtropical design principles while referencing the suburb's industrial heritage.</p>

<p>A total of 64 apartments are planned for the amalgamated 1,518 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/17-21-maud-street-newstead-qld-4006">17–21 Maud Street</a>, a short walk from the Brisbane River and Newstead Riverwalk.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: HG Developments plans 18-storey subtropical apartment tower for Newstead" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a400c7fd-bd15-48f8-a63b-10ede92efe00" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Maud%20st%20bldg.png?VersionId=.0vPmjpbC7CNP7kqGWa6L7rGIwsNExaw" /></p>

<p>"The building is defined by a series of vaulted motifs that reinterpret the arches, colonnades and layered facades evident throughout Newstead's historic built fabric," the Urban Design Report states.</p>

<p>"Combined with recessed glazing and generous balconies, these elements create a layered building envelope that provides shade, weather protection and opportunities for natural ventilation whilst establishing a distinctive architectural identity."</p>

<p>The proposal comprises 64 two, three and four-bedroom apartments across 18 residential levels, positioning it alongside a growing number of taller residential projects transforming Newstead's northern precinct. The tower incorporates extensive subtropical landscaping, with cascading planter boxes, deep planting at street level and a landscaped rooftop recreation area.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: HG Developments plans 18-storey subtropical apartment tower for Newstead" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="1d8140f4-8b98-45cd-b1b8-1efe8c8e266b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Maud%20st%20podium.png?VersionId=VAZtbCoD44YCJ57N99fQCAKeSJx7ldZs" /></p>

<p>Bureau Proberts has prioritised passive environmental design throughout the project, with generous balconies, recessed glazing and operable façades helping reduce solar heat gain while maximising natural ventilation. River views become available from the upper levels, while the building has been orientated to capture prevailing breezes from both the Brisbane River and the west.</p>

<p>The architects say landscape is intended to be integral to the building rather than an applied element.</p>

<p>"Vertical greenery, cascading planter boxes and elevated gardens are woven throughout the architecture, softening the built form and strengthening the connection between residents and the subtropical environment."</p>

<p>"Through the integration of landscape, high-quality materials and passive design principles, the development delivers a refined residential address that celebrates Newstead's heritage character while contributing positively to Brisbane's evolving subtropical identity."</p>

<p>Newstead has remained one of Brisbane's most active apartment markets in recent years, with a number of developers continuing to back the inner-city suburb.</p>

<p>HG Developments is currently delivering the 40-apartment Aire Newstead at 25 Maud Street. Fortis recently launched the 65-apartment <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/crest-walker-newstead-12-kyabra-street-newstead-qld-4006">Crest &amp; Walker</a> on Kyabra Street, while builder-developer BPG and Don O'Rorke's Consolidated Properties are both expected to launch their respective Newstead projects before the end of the year.</p>


HG Developments doubles down in Newstead with second Maud Street apartment development

<p>Walk past a new apartment development promoting its sustainability credentials and it's easy to picture rooftop gardens, mature trees, landscaped courtyards and residents surrounded by nature.</p>

<p>But in many cases, that's not actually what those sustainability ratings guarantee.</p>

<p>Australia's leading environmental rating tools have played a significant role in improving the energy efficiency and environmental performance of buildings. Yet despite their focus on reducing emissions, many don't require developers to include trees, biodiversity or meaningful green space.</p>

<p>In other words, a building can achieve one of the country's highest sustainability ratings while containing little more than concrete, glass and hard landscaping.</p>

<p>That disconnect has led to the emergence of a new movement across Australia's property industry: nature-based cities.</p>

<p>The concept goes beyond designing buildings that consume less energy. Instead, it encourages developers to treat nature as essential infrastructure, integrating biodiversity, tree canopy, living landscapes and green spaces into projects from the earliest stages of planning.</p>

<p>Research has consistently linked access to nature with better physical and mental health, cooler neighbourhoods, improved biodiversity, stronger climate resilience and more connected communities. As Australia's cities continue to become denser, advocates say those outcomes should be considered just as important as energy efficiency.</p>

<p>Nature Based Cities (NBC) was established in 2022 to help accelerate that shift.</p>

<p>Founded by Hamton Executive Chairman Paul Hameister OAM, the not-for-profit was created after research highlighted a significant gap in Australia's sustainability framework. While existing environmental rating tools rewarded energy performance and emissions reductions, they placed little emphasis on the inclusion of living landscapes.</p>

<p>"We've always wanted to do more, and we know other developers who want to do more, but the ESD rating tools just aren't there," Hameister says.</p>

<p>"In Australia, you can have a five-green-star rated building that's concrete and glass with not a blade of grass.</p>

<p>"The focus is on reducing emissions, which is laudable, but there hasn't been enough attention paid to protecting and re-establishing nature. We need both for the health of the environment and for communities."</p>

<p>Since its launch, NBC has developed independent design guidelines and accreditation frameworks that encourage developers to prioritise ecology, biodiversity, tree canopy, walkability and living landscapes alongside traditional sustainability measures. The organisation first focused on medium and high-density residential developments before recently expanding into precinct-scale communities and masterplanned neighbourhoods.</p>

<p>Jan Talacko, founder of sustainability consultancy Ark Resources and a member of the Nature Based Cities Advisory Council, says the initiative addresses an area that has largely been overlooked by the property industry.</p>

<p>"Throughout my 25 years of working collaboratively with all stakeholders in the property sector, I've always favoured a pragmatic approach to sustainable design which encourages initiatives that not only meet environmental expectations but also improve amenity," Talacko says.</p>

<p>"Whilst we are making steady progress in relation to energy and carbon emissions from buildings, there has been much less emphasis on encouraging biodiversity and tackling the urban heat island effect.</p>

<p>"The Nature Based Cities initiative responds to a gap in the suite of tools currently used by the property development sector, which don't provide sufficient incentive, or recognition, for the integration of landscaping and greenery."</p>

<p>For apartment buyers, the shift is also changing the questions worth asking.</p>

<p>Rather than assuming a sustainable building will naturally include abundant green space, buyers are increasingly being encouraged to look beyond environmental ratings and ask what nature is actually being delivered. How much tree canopy will the development create? Has biodiversity been considered? Are landscaped spaces designed for people as well as appearance?</p>

<p>As Australia's cities continue to grow upwards and outwards, the next generation of sustainability may not simply be measured by lower emissions, but by how successfully developments bring nature back into everyday urban life.</p>


What does it really mean for a building to be 'green'?

Mining Downturn

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<div id="post-body-3564066941325967105" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>Another interesting article was written by the doyen of economic commentary Ross Gittins this weekend, in which he points out that the economy will look better once mining investment stops falling. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The reversion in resources capital investment has long been flagged as a major downside risk for the Australian economy, or even as some kind of economic Armageddon.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Engineering construction activity had declined by about 10 percent in the year to September 2015 to a quarterly value of around $25.4 billion, which is now some 24 per cent down from the peak of $33.6 billion.<br><br>Yet as highlighted by Gittins, despite this ongoing contraction the economy managed to grind out GDP growth of 2.5 per cent, helped by net exports and an increase in dwelling construction. Indeed, the non-mining economy grew by about 3 per cent.<br><br>I took a more detailed look at the components of GDP growth (and the troublesome decline in the terms of trade) over the year to September 2015.<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Mining investment won't fall forever</span></strong><br><br>The good news noted by Gittins is that resources investment cannot continue to decline forever, and sooner or later the nadir will be reached.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The latest available figures showed that the decline was reasonably well advanced by September 2015, although activity still remained well above its "normal" level, particularly in Western Australia and the Northern Territory.</div>
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<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/02/02/A1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div>As you can see in the chart above the good news for Queensland is that much of the decline had already taken place by September, with quarterly engineering construction activity declining by 42 per cent year-on-year to just $4.9 billion. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This was a substantial 57 per cent below the September 2013 quarterly peak, when engineering construction activity hit a state record $11.5 billion. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The September 2015 National Accounts showed state final demand (a measure of activity which excludes exports) in Queensland of -0.2 per cent marking a fifth consecutive quarterly decline for the Sunshine State, driven by an ongoing weakness in private gross fixed capital formation (declining non-dwelling construction) as large scale resources projects approached their completion.<br><br>This was a significant improvement on the -1.3 per cent decline in Queensland state final demand in the June 2015 quarter, and hearteningly the largest part of the decline in engineering construction activity is now in the rear view mirror.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>A great challenge for Western Australia (where quarterly engineering construction activity is still highly elevated at $10.3 billion) and the Northern Territory (miles above historic norms at $2 billion, due to the massive Inpex Ichthys LNG project), however, is that the great bulk of the decline in construction activity has yet to take place. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Trade balance improving</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>It is worth noting that decline in resources construction is not in itself a bad thing: after all the whole point of constructing mining and resources projects is that they will eventually produce commodity exports (<em>reductio ad absurdum</em> if a decline in construction is a 'bad thing', we should never have partaken in a mining boom in the first instance).<br><br>A look at the latest International Trade figures shows that over the past three months Queensland has produced a positive trade balance of $1.2 billion per month, after churning out several negative prints in 2014. </div>
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<img src="/images/2016/02/02/QLD2.jpg" alt=""><br><div> </div>
<div>With the Gladstone natural gas venture now kicking into gear and the first shipments underway, GLNG exports will begin to make a welcome positive contribution in 2016, question marks over commodity price action notwithstanding.</div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong><br><div> </div>
<div>The figures show that the decline in mining investment still has a way to run, but eventually the downturn will be complete and the remainder of the economy will enjoy rising commodity exports.<br><br>The biggest unknown factor is what will happen to commodity prices over the years ahead.<br><br>Queensland's economy has been through a rough trot since 2013 as resources investment has nosedived, knocking it down to sixth spot in the state rankings.<br><br>However, things should begin to pick up in time, and although population growth from net overseas migration has slowed, Queensland will be one of only two states (the other being Victoria) to benefit from <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2015/12/sydney-melbourne-dominate-population" target="_blank">net interstate migration</a>, particularly as more Sydneysiders opt to make the journey north. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>But if doom and gloom is your thing, fear not, for there will always be someone doing something stupid somewhere in the world, and in turn there will be something new to worry about: oil prices, China's property bubble, a Cyprus default, weapons in North Korea, the Ebola virus...</div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The week ahead!</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>An exciting week ahead! </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will leave interest rates on hold at 2 per cent on Tuesday afternoon (recall that it wasn't so very long ago that a rate cut by February was 100 per cent priced in). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>With the unemployment rate having declined from 6.4 per cent to 5.8 per cent and employment having reportedly grown by +2.6 per cent in 2015, another interest rate cut does remain fully priced in, but not until the fourth quarter of 2016.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>At the end of the week the RBA will also release its Statement on Monetary Policy (SOMP), within which it is expected that economic growth forecasts for 2015 will be revised up from 2.25 per cent to 2.5 per cent. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Inflation forecasts on the other hand are likely to remain unchanged after this week's release showed that inflation is well under control. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Also this week we will get the latest Building Approvals figures for December, which may show a bit of a bounce from last month's sharp drop, but we might expect to see the downtrend remaining in place.<br><br>
</div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/02/02/A2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div>Finally there will be the latest International Trade figures to look forward to - expect to see a another substantial deficit in December of perhaps more than $3 billion, with low iron ore prices the key driver - and recall there was a wild explosion in rural exports (legumes boom!) last month, which surely cannot be repeated in December.<br><br><div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/02/02/A3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div> </div>
<div>The truth is still out there. Stay tuned, and have a great week! </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Brighter days ahead for Queensland: Pete Wargent

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>Australia continues to grow jobs, but wages aren’t keeping up and policymakers are running out of options.</p>
<p>Let’s begin with an economy that is doing relatively well.</p>
<p>In the US, the data were both predictable and moderately positive.</p>
<p>Consumer prices (as measured by the CPI) were up only 0.1% in October, but this was in line with expectations. Recall that two major hurricanes drove up gasoline prices in September, and those increases rolled off (they were up 13.1% in September and fell 2.4% in October). The year-on-year CPI increase was 2.0% – again, in line with expectations.</p>
<p>The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by a healthy 2.6% on a year-on-year basis – despite a drop in gasoline prices for producers of 4.6% (note the difference between wholesale and retail price changes). Perhaps most importantly, there were relatively strong increases in elements of the index that the US Federal Reserve cares most about (as they are less cyclical than, say, energy prices), like healthcare costs.</p>
<p>Less expected, but happy news, was the 0.2% rise in retail sales. That puts retail sales up 4.6% on an annual basis. This is further evidence of the solid rebound in the US economy.</p>
<p>And now to Australia.</p>
<p>On the plus side, a fair number of jobs are being created. As Treasurer Scott Morrison was eager to point out on Thursday, 296,400 jobs have been created this year; 236,000 of them full-time.</p>
<p>But the continued depressing news is about wages. The wage-price index was up 0.5% for the third quarter, below market expectations of 0.7%. That puts annual wages growth at 2.0%. With inflation running at 1.8%, that means real wages growth is effectively zero. And it has been like that for a long time.</p>
<p>This is causing enormous problems for Australian households and policymakers.</p>
<p>Recall that Australian households are among the most highly leveraged in the world – with debts at around 190% of GDP. So what is going to reduce that debt?</p>
<p>There are two possibilities: more inflation or more income. Inflation helps reduce the debt in real terms, and income helps for obvious reasons. Right now, both avenues look shaky.</p>
<p>On the former, the Melbourne Institute reported on Thursday that inflation expectations fell this month, providing further evidence that future inflation is likely to be low.</p>
<p>On the latter, there has been a continued run of low wages growth. This is an experience being felt in advanced economies around the world. That suggests it is something to do with technology, or global economic conditions, and therefore not all that amenable to policy.</p>
<p>That leaves us with heavily indebted households, with no obvious way out. This, of course, puts a strain on consumer spending, which in turn affects business investment and employment, and the whole (vicious) cycle loops back on itself.</p>
<p>What is the cut-through for policymakers?</p>
<p>The RBA could drop interest rates from their current 1.50% level – and increasingly some economists are suggesting that. The worry is that a rate cut might further fuel housing prices, making the problem worse, not better.</p>
<p>Federal income tax cuts would be another avenue, but with the budget in structural deficit, and with an economically illiterate crossbench, that looks unlikely.</p>
<p>The government could embark on a major infrastructure spending plan, which could rejuvenate regional employment in areas hit by the forces of globalisation. With interest rates at very low levels, for very long maturities, this seems like a good idea, as long as the projects are assessed on a rational basis.</p>
<p>The concern in this regard is politics. Both major parties have their predilections and bases to pander to. A bad outcome would be, for example, a big coal mine investment by the Coalition, and some uneconomic green-energy boondoggle by the opposition.</p>
<p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/87517/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">As I have said before in this column, the US seems to be navigating the post-2008 economic world relatively well, although caution is certainly warranted. Australia is doing much less well. And the narrative that we have “successfully transitioned from the mining boom” seems a lot more like wishful thinking than hard evidence.</p>
<p><em><strong>Richard Holden</strong>, Professor of Economics and PLuS Alliance Fellow, UNSW.</em></p>
<p><em>This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-australias-mining-boom-transition-is-on-shaky-ground-87517" target="_blank">original article</a>.</em></p>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Australia's mining boom transition is on shaky ground: Richard Holden

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<p><span>GUEST OBSERVER</span></p>
<p><span>Australia's economy has done well, considering it has had to absorb a significant negative shock from the end of the mining boom. </span></p>
<p><span>Over the past few years, commodity prices have fallen by 60 percent and mining investment has declined from around 8 percent to 3.5 percent of GDP. </span></p>
<p><span>Historically, much smaller falls have typically caused recessions. But, as last week's GDP figures clearly illustrated, Australia's 'R-word' has been rebalancing not recession. Although business investment was a -1.6ppt drag on growth, overall GDP grew by a strong 3.3 percent y-o-y in Q2. </span></p>
<p><span>The mining investment fall has been more than offset by a ramp up in resources exports and growth in services exports, housing construction and household spending. Looking forward, the drag from mining investment and falling commodity prices should now fade. This is expected to mean continued solid overall GDP growth, despite the housing construction boom nearing its end. We see the RBA on hold in coming quarters. </span></p>
<p><span>The more downbeat economic observers have, in recent years, described the economy as falling off the 'mining investment cliff' and said that Australia would have an 'income recession' as a result of the fall in commodity prices. The end of the mining boom has, indeed, been a big negative shock to absorb. </span></p>
<p><span>But although mining investment has fallen significantly and declining commodity prices have weighed on nominal GDP, growth in real GDP and employment has remained solid. Last week's GDP numbers showed that Australia's economy grew at an above-trend 3.3 percent over the year to Q2 2016. Over the past five years, GDP growth has averaged 2.8 percent (which is around its trend rate) and jobs growth has been strong enough to see the unemployment rate fall from its early-2015 peak of 6.25 percent to now sit around 5.75 percent. </span></p>
<p><span>How has this happened? Australia's growth has been rebalancing from the mining to the non- mining sectors (</span><span>'Australia's great rebalancing act', December 2012</span><span>). Low interest rates have supported a housing price and construction boom while the lower AUD and rising middle class incomes in Asia are driving increased demand for Australia's services exports, including tourism, education and business services. </span></p>
<p><span>Importantly, the big drag from mining investment and commodity prices is almost done. The worst is in the past. As a result, even those that have been pessimistic about the impact of the end of the mining boom should now have less to worry about. </span></p>
<p><span>Mining investment, which has been a drag of a hefty 4.5ppts of GDP over the past four years, will stop being a drag soon. On our estimates, mining investment subtracted around 1.8ppts from GDP over the year to Q2 2016, but will only subtract 0.5ppts from growth in the year to Q2 2017 and will not be a drag the following year. </span></p>
<p><span>The drag will therefore subside by 1.3ppt this coming year and 0.5ppt the next year. And, because the LNG export ramp up will still be underway, the resources sector as a whole should contribute to overall real GDP growth. </span></p>
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<p><span>We also expect that commodity prices have already passed the trough. If so, nominal GDP growth, tax revenues and even wages should get some support. Commodity prices have already made up the losses from late last year and are flat y-o-y, so are no longer a drag. On our forecasts, nominal GDP growth could pick-up from 3.4 percent y-o-y in Q2 2016 to 6 percent y-o-y by Q2 2017. </span></p>
<p><span>Other downbeat commentators now point out that the end of Australia's housing price and construction boom could see weaker growth next year and into 2018. Having grown so strongly recently, housing construction will fall at some point and weaker house prices could deliver a negative wealth effect. While we agree that the housing price boom is over and that housing construction will start to be a drag on growth from around mid-2017, to us, the arithmetic suggests that this will be more than offset by the subsiding mining investment drag. </span></p>
<p><span>Mining will stop being a drag just as the housing sector becomes one. The net of the two effects should still leave the economy growing, as the fall in mining investment was much bigger than the decline in housing investment is likely to be. </span></p>
<p><span>We see little evidence that the housing price boom has driven a particularly strong positive wealth effect so doubt that the cooling of the housing price boom will see a significant negative one. </span></p>
<p><span>What will be the main driver of growth? Services exports, led by tourism, education and business services. It's already happening, and in our view, is set to continue. Keep in mind that the services sector accounts for over 70 percent of Australia's GDP. </span></p>
<p><span>This should continue to support jobs growth, as it has done in recent years. It should also start to spur more business investment. Last week's GDP numbers showed tentative signs of a pick-up in non-mining business investment. </span></p>
<p><span>Australia's rebalancing is almost complete, at which point we expect domestic wages and inflation to stabilise. Once we have passed the trough in domestic wages and underlying inflation we expect that the RBA is unlikely to cut further. Our central case has the RBA on hold at 1.50 eprcent in coming quarters. </span></p>
<p><span><span> </span><em><a href="https://www.about.hsbc.com.au/hsbc-in-australia/management-team" target="_blank">PAUL BLOXHAM</a> IS CHIEF ECONOMIST (AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND) FOR HSBC. </em></span></p>
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Property 101: Mining's big drag is almost done: HSBC's Paul Bloxham

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>The rotation in economic activity towards the non-mining states is continuing, while conditions in mining states have become more challenging as commodity prices have fallen further.</p>
<p><span>•</span><span> </span><span><strong>In terms of domestic demand, NSW and Victoria will be the most solid performers, with growth gradually improving</strong>. </span></p>
<p><span>Both will receive less impetus from housing activity and prices in FY 2016-17. </span></p>
<p><span>Notwithstanding this, our central case remains for solid (though unspectacular) employment growth and lower petrol prices to sufficiently support household incomes and consumption (despite ongoing subdued wages growth). </span></p>
<p><span>•</span><span> </span><span><strong>The AUD is acting as a stabiliser, although the troubled global backdrop presents downside risk to all states and territories. </strong></span></p>
<p><span>Further depreciation of the AUD to USD66c will continue to improve the competitiveness of export-oriented and import-competing firms to varying degrees. </span></p>
<p>This will be particularly helpful for services sectors, including those benefiting from tourism and international student arrivals such as hospitality, retail and education. </p>
<p><span>States for which tourism-related activity makes up a large proportion of the economy such as Tasmania and Queensland will be particularly supported. </span></p>
<p><span>Tourism and education are also bright spots for NSW, Victoria, South Australia and the NT. </span></p>
<p>While not our core view, a sharper global slowdown could lower demand for travel to Australia, education exports and Australian property, particularly if the household sectors in China and East Asia come under stress. </p>
<p>Queensland and the Northern Territory will outperform in terms of overall gross state product in coming years as LNG export volumes ramp up.</p>
<p>However the outlook for associated income and government revenue has deteriorated as commodity prices have dropped further, and any residual mining-related investment in the pipeline is unlikely to proceed. </p>
<p>Western Australia is more advanced into the mining investment downturn, with broad-ranging effects to continue across the states’ economy in 2015-16, before LNG export volumes come through in subsequent years, but to a lesser extent than previously forecast. </p>
<p>A restrained approach towards non-mining business investment is likely to persist across all states in coming years.</p>
<p>Recent equity market volatility and uncertainty about future taxation arrangements are likely to add to this air of caution, particularly given firms continue to demand a restrictively high rate of return on investment. </p>
<p> </p>
<p><span>•</span><span> </span><span><strong>An overview of the outlook for each state and territory is in the attached document. Links to individual handbooks for each state and territory are available at the links below. </strong></span></p>
<p><span>•</span><span> <a href="https://business.nab.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/NSW_Jan16.pdf"><span><strong>New South Wales</strong></span></a></span><span> will remain the standout in terms of domestic demand. Robust employment growth will be supportive of household spending, while business conditions and capacity utilisation remain elevated, particularly across services sectors. The challenge for NSW will be maintaining robust growth as momentum from the housing sector begins to fade through 2016.</span></p>
<p>• <a href="https://business.nab.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/VIC_Jan16.pdf"><strong>Victoria</strong></a> will also continue to experience solid domestic demand growth, and is also well positioned to take advantage of the lower AUD in its tourism and education sectors. Strong employment growth will support consumer spending, although there will be less impetus from the housing sector through 2016. </p>
<p><span>•</span><span> </span><span>In <a href="https://business.nab.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/QLD_Jan16.pdf"><span><strong>Queensland</strong></span></a> , the sharp decline in mining investment will be offset by exports, although lower LNG and coal prices will reduce the export earnings, profitability and government revenue. Meanwhile, key tourist destinations are benefiting from the lower AUD (with interstate visitor arrivals particularly strong). Domestic demand growth is slowly improving. More attractive rental yields and housing affordability than in NSW and Victoria are driving dwelling investment in Brisbane.</span></p>
<p><span>•</span><span> <a href="https://business.nab.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/WA_-Jan16.pdf"><span><strong>Western Australia</strong></span></a></span><span> is well into the throes of the mining investment downturn, which is having a dramatic impact across many segments of the economy. Offsets from stronger mineral export volumes helped to prop up Gross State Product (GSP) growth in 2014-15, but big declines in state final demand have had a major impact on the state’s labour market and asset prices. These trends are expected to continue given the lack of momentum in non-mining sectors. A ramping-up in LNG exports in subsequent years should see growth lift, but by less than previously forecast.</span></p>
<p><span>•</span><span> <a href="https://business.nab.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/SA_Jan16.pdf"><span><strong>South Australia</strong></span></a></span><span> continues to underperform, challenged by unfavourable demographics and the structural decline of its manufacturing base. Business conditions remain weak, with the retail sector and some improvement in tourism rare bright spots.</span></p>
<p><span>•</span><span> <a href="https://business.nab.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/TAS_Jan16.pdf"><span><strong>Tasmania</strong></span></a></span><span> – while the outlook has improved over the last year, thanks in large part to a pick-up in business investment and strong domestic tourism, recent data suggest that the recovery may be losing a little steam. </span></p>
<p><span>•</span><span> <a href="https://business.nab.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/ACT_Jan16.pdf"><span><strong>Australian Capital Territory</strong></span></a></span><span> – the economy is gradually recovering from the recent fiscal tightening and public sector job cuts. The labour market has shown promising signs of improvement, and together with a modest pick up in population growth will support household consumption and dwelling investment. </span></p>
<p><span>•</span><span> <a href="https://business.nab.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/NT_Jan16.pdf"><span><strong>Northern Territory</strong></span></a></span><span> - Growth<strong> </strong>will remain strong in coming years as the Icthys LNG project commences export. Medium-term the economy will struggle to replace this source of income and employment, despite the lower AUD supporting tourism.</span></p>
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