Fresh off completing Pienza Neutral Bay, developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/central-element">Central Element</a> is preparing its next move in the coveted Lower North Shore suburb.&nbsp;

Central Element (CE) has lodged plans for an eight-storey apartment building at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/54-64-barry-street-neutral-bay-nsw-2089">54–64 Barry Street</a>, a 1,659 sqm site just south of Military Road and the Neutral Bay town centre.

The $52 million development will involve the demolition of four detached homes across four lots to deliver 45 apartments, including eight affordable housing units to be managed by Bridge Housing. The mix will comprise six one-bedroom apartments, 24 two-beds, and 15 three-beds. The apartments will sit above three basement levels with 62 car parking spaces and 50 bicycle spaces.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/mhn-design-union">MHN Design Union</a> (MHNDU) has returned as architect following its work on Pienza, again shaping a mid-rise form with a clear street presence. The design features a lower four-storey podium element that responds to surrounding context, with upper levels recessed to reduce perceived bulk. Communal open space is proposed both at ground level and on the rooftop, the latter including an outdoor kitchen and swimming pool.

“The building has been designed with a lower four-storey element and with building materials commensurate with the character of the area,” Beam Planning noted in its submission to the North Sydney Council.

<img alt="Barry Street, Neutral Bay Nsw 2089" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3a28ab3a-b8ba-4476-81cd-e4a8bb84f3a7" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Barry-Street-Neutral-Bay-1327x742.png?VersionId=hlgvxszAWXIHgHtdR5HiwIKiSli2lLZV" />

Bridge Housing will manage the affordable units for a period of 15 years, as required under the Housing SEPP’s incentive provisions.

MHNDU’s design report further highlights the site's strategic location just 250 metres from key bus stops and 1.3 kilometres from North Sydney CBD, positioning it for transit-accessible housing supply. In their planning justification, the design team emphasised the site’s compatibility with emerging local character and scale.

Central Element has a solid apartment pipeline spread all over Sydney. They recently completed&nbsp;Pienza, 37 apartments just 500 metres away from the new project, and are currently building Ethos Chatswood, Ballamac House in Coogee, and Bianca on the harbour in Drummoyne.

They have plans for future projects in Mosman, Bondi Beach, Greenwich, Lavender Bay, along with a tower on the edge of Hyde Park.

Joel Robinson

First look: Central Element unveils second Neutral Bay apartment project

Real estate investment fund Wentworth Wentworth Equities is soon to launch a "Los Angeles-inspired" residential, leisure and lifestyle precinct in Brisbane’s Hamilton riverside ahead of the predicted Olympic-led population explosion for the city.

Drawing its style inspiration and name from Los Angeles’ renowned The Grove, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/hamilton-grove-19-hercules-street-hamilton-qld-4007">Hamilton Grove</a> will feature three residential towers and a vibrant street-level public precinct with curated luxury lifestyle, retail and dining offerings.

The first of the three towers, to launch in March 2026, will comprise 61 apartments, in the same building as a premium hotel.<img alt="Hamilton Grove" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d227fe61-8392-45b7-b386-9133f29a249f" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-01-19%20at%209.10.56%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=HTCV35HZ4h84jQCmHwhsdIPN0ctO5d7Z" />

Wentworth Equities Executive Chairman Sameh Ibrahim said the precinct will be unique in its appeal to both residents and the wider community.

“Hamilton is already one of Brisbane’s most sought-after riverside suburbs and for good reason,” Ibrahim said.

“Where else in the world can you walk out of your front door and have everything you could possibly need at your fingertips? The city is just around the corner, the airport is only ten minutes away, you have the river and green spaces right there and premium retail and dining on your doorstep."

Wentworth Equities acquired the 7637 sqm Hercules St site in 2014, when Ibrahim said he had a "very clear vision" for the precinct, but ultimately it wasn't the right time to develop. He said Hamilton was still very much an "emerging precinct."

“Since then, Hamilton and surrounding suburbs like Ascot and Albion have significantly grown and matured into a precinct that aligns with our vision for Hamilton Grove. Brisbane as a whole has so much to offer in the way of lifestyle appeal, but as it stands it is so widespread – you go to Howard Smith Wharves for fine dining, you go to James Street for shopping, you go to West End to walk along the river – but what if you could go to Hamilton Grove for everything?

“Our vision is a precinct that brings together the best of Brisbane into one central space abundant with culture, class and culinary experience – a place that a lucky few will get to call home, but the rest of Brisbane still get to explore and experience at their leisure.”

<img alt="Hamilton Grove" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="46550990-8aeb-44d4-bb47-150cdca96529" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-01-19%20at%209.10.50%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=bmCkApPKY_Bj3z02Q8vI7Kyo_caJXOnv" />

Experienced civil engineering contractor Mainland Civil has been appointed to commence early works for the project, adding Hamilton Grove to their extensive portfolio where it will join other iconic Brisbane developments including Queens Wharf, 300 George Street, Infinity Tower and 1 William Street.

Construction on Tower One is scheduled to commence in early 2026 with completion expected in late 2028.

Fast Facts 
 
• Three residential towers and a vibrant street-level public precinct with curated luxury lifestyle, retail and dining offerings. 
• Construction on Tower One is expected to commence in Quarter One 2026, with completion expected in late 2028. 
• 7,637 square metre site at 19 Hercules St, Hamilton (part of Economic Development Queensland’s 304 hectare Northshore Hamilton Priority Development Area). 
• 61 waterfront residences and skyhomes in the first tower, ranging from two to five bedrooms. 
• Hamiton Grove will be officially launched in March 2026.

"LA-inspired" Hamilton Grove to launch on Brisbane riverside

There’s a quiet patch of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/hawthorn-vic-3122">Hawthorn</a>, between the bustle of Glenferrie Road and the curve of the Yarra, that rarely sees change, and even more rarely, new apartments. But that’s exactly where <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/pomeroy-pacific-quattro-corp">PQD</a> is planting Kooyongkoot: a deliberate, 18-residence answer to the question of what downsizers actually want.

“This is something this pocket of Hawthorn has never seen before,” says Fil Gacesa, head of sales at PQD. “<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/kooyongkoot-hawthorn-1-kooyongkoot-road-hawthorn-vic-3122">Kooyongkoot</a> will deliver just 18 large-scale apartments in the heart of Hawthorn. It is the true definition of resort-style living.”

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/59D7VxzltmM?si=1iCzRD7FRneKryfv" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>

That scale is central to the story. It’s what allows for two dedicated lift cores, short corridors, and a generous lightcourt that draws natural ventilation and sunlight into every residence. It’s also what makes room for the sort of amenity usually confined to high-density towers: a fully equipped wellness centre with infrared and traditional saunas, yoga and pilates studio, cold therapy shower, and treatment room. There’s a golf simulator, car and dog wash stations, and extensive storage too, not bolted on, but baked in from the start.

But more than the checklist, it’s the design intent that carries weight. “This project has been many years in the making,” says Mark Pomeroy, Director of PQD. “Not just in planning, but in listening, to what our buyers and the local community are looking for”.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355289]

That listening shows up in the materials, oak floors, natural stone, V-ZUG appliances, and in how space is handled. Penthouses feature private rooftop terraces with pools. Terraces and garden residences embrace outdoor connection. Inside, the layouts skew large and open, geared for hosting, not just housing.

Architecturally, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a>’s approach is grounded. There’s no reaching for spectacle here. Instead, the building offers a sculptural calm, anchored by landscaping from Eckersley Garden Architecture.&nbsp;

“We wanted to create spaces that feel expansive, serene, and meaningfully connected to daily life,” said founding partner Chris Stribley elsewhere.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355304]

That sentiment, calm, connection, echoes in the location itself. Kooyongkoot sits just a short stroll from Central Gardens, Fairview Park, and the Rivoli Cinema. Tram lines and schools are close, but the street is tucked, quiet, and leaf-lined.&nbsp;

“Residents of Kooyongkoot will be a short stroll from Fairview Park, Central Gardens, and the Glenferrie Road retail strip," Gacesa notes, "but you're also cocooned in this peaceful pocket behind extensive landscaping by Eckersley Garden Architecture.”

Kooyongkoot is set for completion in late 2026.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=102717]

Staff Writer

The project that said no to compromise: Inside Kooyongkoot, Hawthorn

When long-time Ivanhoe locals Graeme and Catherine, decided it was time to downsize, they weren’t necessarily in a rush.&nbsp;

Like many in their stage of life, they had started thinking about apartment living, but anticipated making the shift in two to three years.

That timeline changed when they visited <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/new-apartments/candela-ivanhoe-40-upper-heidelberg-road-ivanhoe">Candela</a>, a new boutique development by <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/developers/salter-brothers">Salter Brothers</a>. The project ticked all the boxes they were looking for: location, quality design, and long-term lifestyle benefits, which prompted them to bring their decision forward.

“It was the right place at the right time,” they said. “We knew immediately it ticked all the boxes, and we didn’t want to wait.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=342 project_image_fid=358855]

Their decision to downsize was driven by a combination of practical needs and lifestyle considerations. Their existing home, while much loved, had become increasingly difficult to maintain. It spanned multiple levels, included extensive front and back gardens, and was starting to show the wear that comes with age.&nbsp;

They were looking for a more manageable lifestyle, one with less upkeep and more freedom. A brand-new apartment with no maintenance requirements and the ability to simply “lock up and leave” gave them peace of mind and a greater sense of control over their future.

Financially, the purchase made sense as well. The available stamp duty savings, strong price-to-value offering, and timing of the settlement suited their plans, making the transition smoother and more cost-effective. The apartment's design and inclusions further supported their choice.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=342 project_image_fid=357493]

The layout was both functional and flexible: three bedrooms, a butler’s pantry, a separate laundry, and a large open-plan living area. It gave them the freedom to host a family, accommodate guests, or set up a home office. The expansive balcony and elevated views added to the appeal, providing a sense of openness and connection to the outdoors.

“It just had a really good flow,” Catherine noted, something they found lacking in many other apartments they’d considered, particularly in the established market.

Candela’s boutique scale was another deciding factor. With a smaller number of residences and a top-floor penthouse position, the couple felt the development offered the privacy and space they were looking for, without feeling isolated.

“We liked that it wasn’t a huge development. It felt well-balanced, modern but still with a sense of community, not overwhelming,” they said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=342 project_image_fid=357508]

Equally important was the ability to remain in Ivanhoe, a suburb they know well and have deep roots in. After 46 years in the area, proximity to local parks, shops, and familiar faces mattered just as much as the apartment itself.

“We didn’t want to give up the community we’ve known for decades. Candela allowed us to upgrade our lifestyle while staying in the place we call home.”

With a Walk Score of 90, the village location supports a convenient, connected lifestyle. <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/ivanhoe-vic-3079">Ivanhoe</a> Station is just a eight-minute walk away, and the neighbourhood offers access to parks, cafes, restaurants, and schools along Upper Heidelberg Road, all within easy reach.

Beyond the apartment, the couple also saw value in the broader vision for Candela, one that integrates residential living with public spaces and local amenities.&nbsp;

The development introduces 58 new apartments as well as a mix of commercial and social spaces that integrate contemporary architecture with the suburb’s existing character.&nbsp;

At ground level, residents will find a charming café and a lifestyle wellness centre, perfect for unwinding and rejuvenating. Meanwhile, the rooftop garden offers a stunning vantage point for residents to enjoy breathtaking sunsets, host gatherings, or enjoy barbecues with family and friends. It's not just a place to live; it's a vibrant community where every moment is an opportunity to connect and create lasting memories.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=342]

Why Ivanhoe locals are choosing to downsize to Candela

Mark and Roy Makari are expanding their presence in Sydney’s South West with a second major proposal for Leppington, this time envisioning a 900-dwelling mixed-use development just 850 metres from their previously lodged tower trio on Fifth Avenue.

Project management and construction management firm Creative Vision filed the plans for the&nbsp;multi-building project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/230-rickard-road-leppington-nsw-2179">230 Rickard Road, Leppington</a>. The proposal seeks to establish a new focal point for the precinct through a high-density, transit-oriented development supported by diverse land uses.

According to the Scoping Report prepared for the Department of Planning, the scheme includes around 900 apartments across multiple towers, including 135 dwellings designated for affordable housing. A mix of market and subsidised apartments will be supported by ground-level activation through retail and office space, a childcare centre, and a hotel, forming a comprehensive urban precinct.

<img alt="Mixed Use Development 230 Rickard Rd Leppington" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="34797362-f3dc-4d84-8235-2657fc5f3bde" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Plan.png?VersionId=Uzckrz9tUpDQl5lX1_WMhjnv16bsr8wG" />

The Design Report by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/studiosc-0">Studio SC</a> notes that the project “intends to deliver a high-quality, high-density built form that supports the vision for the Leppington Town Centre, integrating mixed-use outcomes and public domain upgrades.” The development is expected to be delivered in stages, although a precise timeline is yet to be confirmed.

The project will be assessed through a future State Significant Development Application, with the Scoping Report indicating the team will seek design excellence via a competitive process or through an expert design review panel. Early massing diagrams suggest a series of mid- to high-rise buildings framing a central landscaped spine, with emphasis on pedestrian permeability and public space.

The planning documentation flags a strong sustainability agenda, stating that the development will “respond to the urban heat island effect, incorporate water sensitive urban design, and prioritise active transport”.

<img alt="Mixed Use Development 230 Rickard Rd Leppington" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="369d7b54-1279-4cde-88ec-dcb215594414" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Podium_1.png?VersionId=QArL7B2kkLt63vl5xvL0FNV_ardAlez4" />

The proposal follows in the footsteps of the Makaris’ nearby Fifth Avenue site, where they’ve submitted plans for three towers comprising nearly 500 apartments, with 10 per cent dedicated to affordable housing. That project features commercial podiums, a childcare centre, and a new public park that would occupy more than a third of the site.

Both developments are situated within walking distance of Leppington Train Station and fall under strategic precinct plans promoting higher density housing. The town centre is undergoing substantial transformation, driven by state government planning reforms aimed at fast-tracking housing delivery.

Together, the two projects represent a combined ambition of nearly 1,400 new homes across just under two kilometres of central Leppington.

First look: 900-home mixed-use precinct planned for Leppington

Mining Boom

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There are growing reasons for hope and optimism for property investors who bought in resources-related towns at the height of the mining investment boom.
The question I get asked most often is “when will Gladstone recover?” - or similar questions about other resources-impacted regional centres around Australia.
For the past couple of years, the honest answer did not give much cheer to those holding properties worth considerably less than they paid and earning a lot less in rent than before (if a tenant could be found at all).
But now, increasingly, the news is more positive. Many of these places are showing definite signs of recovery and investors can look forward to the prospect of better prices and rentals.
I’m not suggesting anyone should rush out and buy in these places, most of which sit at the high-risk end of the investment spectrum – just that, for those who own property there (it’s amazing how many people do), there is light at the end of a very long tunnel.
In our latest edition of the Price Predictor Index, the number of Regional Queensland locations classified as Danger markets has dropped from a record high of 31 late in 2016 to 19 now. 
Markets showing signs of recovery include Dalby, Emerald, Moranbah, Rockhampton, Mackay and the Whitsundays. 
Mackay is showing quite strong signs of returning to growth, with sales activity up, vacancies down and some evidence of prices rising again. With the Central Queensland mining industry revitalising, Mackay is likely to show some reasonable growth in the next couple of years.
Dalby’s economic and property fortunes rose and fell with the fortunes of the coal seam gas industry in the Surat Basin. Right now, its median house price ($255,000) is lower than it was five years ago but likely to recover in the near future.
Quarterly sales in Dalby over the past two years have been 32, 33, 41, 43, 50, 52, 65 and 75, a pattern that confirms the recovery in this market. Vacancies have dropped to around 2%, according to SQM Research.
Some of the worst-affected markets still have high vacancies and falling property values - and should be approached with caution. 
They include Mount Isa and Gladstone. Mount Isa still has eight suburbs classified as Danger markets and Gladstone still has six. Gladstone should improve, as the overall vacancy rate has dropped from a peak of 12% early in 2016 to around 3.5% now - still a little too high, but the trend is encouraging.
Regional areas of WA are nudging towards recovery, notably the resources-related centres in the north of the state.
Karratha and Port Hedland/South Hedland both have sales activity heading in the right direction again, a factor confirmed by our latest survey of sales volumes and also by new figures for the June Quarter from the Real Estate Institute of WA.
At the pinnacle of the resources investment boom, the median house price for Port Hedland was well above $1 million. 
The latest figures show a median price around $395,000. This is 14% above the level of a year ago, though still well below the peak during the resources boom. 
The median price bottomed out around $350,000 earlier in the year, so there appear to be early signs of growth.
But we continue to urge caution - this kind of volatility is common in resources-related markets and they are not for the faint-hearted.
Similarly, there is a general pattern of growth in the Karratha market - and a similar history with prices.
The Karratha market was achieving only 45-55 sales per quarter in 2015 but in the past six quarters have each topped 80 sales. 
Typical house prices in Karratha are now below $300,000, compared with $700,000 to $800,000 at the peak of the resources investment boom.
Median prices in the Karratha area include $260,000 for Bulgarra (up 13% in the past 12 months but down 40% over 3 years), $345,000 for Nickol (up 28% in 12 months but 20% below the levels of three years ago) and $250,000 for Pegs Creek (up 5% in 12 months but still 42% below the levels of three years ago).
There is even a glimmer of recovery in sales activity in the remote resources town of Newman, with a median price ($145,000) at a fraction of the boom-time levels. 
Sales levels in Newman have improved, although from a very low base - in 2015 there were only 11 sales in the town, but there were 57 in 2016 and 75 in 2017.
The Kalgoorlie-Boulder market remains well below par. In 2012/2013 this market was recording around 250 sales per quarter but in the past 12 months fewer than 125 per quarter. We continue to classify Kalgoorlie as a Danger market.
In South Australia, former growth star Whyalla has been classified in The Price Predictor Index as a Danger market over the past two years, but there is hope for better things. 
Our latest quarterly survey shows signs of an upturn in sales, but at levels still well below the resources-fuelled peak of 2013/2014.
Sales in the past four quarters have been 10, 30, 31  and 37, which shows a pattern of improvement, but compares to quarterly sales of 96, 99, 89 and 84 in 2012-13.
Better news about the future of ailing steel maker Arrium, one of the region’s major employers, gives rise to hope for recovery in the local economy and property market. 
I await the next few quarterly surveys to see whether recent signs of upturn in sales activity are real.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
ryder@hotspotting.com.au
twitter.com/hotspotting
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

When will Gladstone recover? Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
State Government approvals which appear to green light the Adani coal project represent a clear and present danger for property investors with poor research and short memories. 
I was alarmed to see News Ltd media publishing stories with headlines like this: “Adani impact: Mining towns on cusp of a housing boom”.
This article was repeated in various forms of media across the nation, with content like this: “After years of poor property price growth, cities like Gladstone, Rockhampton and Emerald are poised to become an investors’ paradise following the State Government’s decision to give the green light for the Adani mine in the Galilee Basin.
“Home prices in towns like Bowen, Longreach and Moranbah, which are up to 73% below their peak, could be on the cusp of a major rebound with work on the Carmichael coal mine set to start immediately.”
Investors’ paradise? Seriously? This is the pinnacle in irresponsible journalism. Anything goes, it seems, in the interests of creating clickbait.
And Longreach to experience an Adani related boom? It’s about 600km south-west of the mine site and, as far as I can tell, has nothing to do with the project or its alleged benefits. (There have been some concerns expressed by Longreach farmers about negative impacts on water resources).
Let’s get some perspective. Mining towns have shown themselves in the recent past to be more of a fool’s paradise than an investor’s paradise. They’re at the extreme danger end of the risk spectrum for property investors. More people have lost money than made fortunes investing in places like Moranbah and Gladstone.
There’s no doubt that many of these places have shown exceptional price growth at times in their history and have also delivered periods of very high rental returns. But the booms have been followed by disastrous busts.
At one point, during the last resources investment boom, Moranbah’s median house price topped $700,000. It had an annual average growth rate around 30% - that’s 30% per year over 10 years. Weekly rents around $1,500 were common.
But what happened next is the core lesson for investors: the major mining companies became fed up with paying those sorts of rents and prices for very ordinary houses. And they came up with a new model that cost them less – they constructed temporary workers’ camps to accommodate fly-in-fly-out (FIFO) workers.
The median house price of Moranbah dropped to around $150,000 and vacancies went above 10%, with a dramatic negative effect on rents.
In the past year or so, the market there has started to recover. Vacancies have come down to below 2% and prices are rising again (from a very low base). 
But will the opening of major new mines create a new housing boom? It’s unlikely, because the mining companies have established a successful model of FIFO workers and workers camps. Those crazy booms of the past won’t be repeated. Any peripheral upsurge in values will be temporary.
Right now, the long-term growth rate for Moranbah prices (the average annual change over the past 10 years) is -3% per year. That’s minus 3% per year. Which means the current median price – around $205,000 – is considerably lower than it was 10 years ago.
The Moranbah story has been repeated in mining-related locations elsewhere in Queensland, including Gladstone, Emerald and the towns of the Surat Basin. It’s also happened, spectacularly, in resources centres in Western Australia, like Port Hedland and Karratha.
Gladstone had a big property market slump while three huge gas plants costing $60 billion were under construction. The market in Newman in the Pilbara region of WA dived while Gina Rinehart was building a $10 billion iron ore mine near the town.
All suffered from the same syndrome: while developers built lots of new dwellings in anticipation of a property boom, the resources companies built workers camps and many of the new homes sat empty, creating a property downturn.
The notion that a big new mine means a housing boom for nearby towns is no longer valid.
And, when you read a little deeper into the News Ltd article, you find this:
CoreLogic senior research analyst Cameron Kusher said it was hard to say what the approval of the mine would mean for the surrounding regions because there was still a lot of contention around how many local jobs would be created.
“If you assume job creation is significant, it will increase demand for housing both from a purchase and rental perspective,” Mr Kusher said. “The challenge will be that since the end of the mining boom these areas have seen very low demand for housing so, if demand exceeds supply you would expect rents and prices to increase, however, I can’t say with any confidence whether that will or won’t be the case.”
I agree with those sentiments. And I would go further – the big property booms in mining towns are history, unless the miners’ modus operandi changes.
There will be some benefits to property markets from the Adani mine, if it goes ahead (it still has some federal regulatory hurdles to get over). Townsville will benefit from having the project HQ, Bowen is close to the export port and may get some spinoff - and Mackay may benefit through proximity and the ability to provide workers, perhaps.
I regard Mackay as a growth property market, because it is benefitting from the revival in Central Queensland mining plus – and this is the key factor – it has other growth elements to its economy. It’s not solely reliant on a buoyant mining sector.
Investors seeking to exploit the Central Queensland mining revival would be better off considering the larger, more diversified regional cities like Mackay, rather than the small towns near the mine sites.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
 
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Be careful of “The Adani Boom” hype: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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There are growing signs that some regional markets impacted by the resources sector have passed the worst and are starting to improve.
These are locations where increased dwelling supply coincided with a downturn in demand as the mining investment boom subsided (or miners built workers camps), causing sales and prices to fall.
Places where demand appears to be rising again include NSW towns impacted by the coal industry (Muswellbrook, Singleton and Mudgee), WA centres for the iron ore and gas sectors (Port Hedland and Karratha), and Queensland towns impacted by coal (Emerald, Mackay and Moranbah).
But that’s not a signal for investors to start buying in these places again. I would hope the many boom-bust scenarios that occurred over the past 4-5 years has left a lasting impression on investors across Australia.
Before the end of the resources investment boom, far too many investors jumped into these markets without understanding the extreme volatility of them and/or their own risk profiles.
The extent of the slump in some of these locations is demonstrated by these figures: at the pinnacle of the resources investment boom, the median house price for Port Hedland in WA was well above $1 million. The latest figures shows a median price around $400,000, following a further 33 percent decline in the past year.
In the coal-mining town of Moranbah in Central Queensland, the median house price has fallen from above $700,000 at the peak of the boom to around $160,000 today.
These are some of the most extreme examples of decline but there are many others, including Queensland centres like Gladstone, Mackay, Emerald and Surat Basin towns such as Chinchilla.
In many cases the downturn in local markets was not caused by any decline in the key resources industry (in many cases it was the CSG/LNG sector which continued to create jobs and economic activity in the affected locations) but by a fundamental switch in the approach of the mining companies to accommodating personnel in workers camps.
Developers who built lots of new product in these places found out, too late, that there was not the expected demand for local dwellings. Places like Gladstone in Queensland and Newman in WA had a boom economy but a doom property market.
Now there is evidence that sales activity is rising in some of these places, after slumping significantly in the past three years. In 2015, each quarter had fewer than 45 sales for Port Hedland and South Hedland combined. But the past three quarters have each had more than 60 sales, with a pattern of rising sales numbers.
In Karratha, residential sales numbered fewer than 55 in most quarters throughout the three years covering 2013 to 2015. But sales activity rose noticeably in 2016, with the past three quarters each delivering more than 75 sales. The general trend is up and we await evidence that 2017 will continue the pattern.
In the meantime, I urge extreme caution for investors considering dipping a toe in these dangerous waters. Resources-related markets are at the high-risk end of the spectrum - there are periods of sharp rises, often followed by catastrophic decline.
I would never buy in these places, because the risks are too high. And the modern trend of workers camps mean that the dwelling demand generated by major mining projects is considerably lower than in the past.
A warning is timely because there is renewed confidence in the resources sector. New projects are being planned and mothballed ventures are being reactivated, particularly in Queensland and WA. As sales activity rises in resources centres, the industry will be pumping out press releases suggesting the boom days are returning.
Hopefully the massive price and rental decline of recent years will live long in the memories of investors.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can  <a href="mailto:%20%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'%3E%20%3C!--%20var%20prefix%20=%20'ma'%20+%20'il'%20+%20'to';%20var%20path%20=%20'hr'%20+%20'ef'%20+%20'=';%20var%20addy38821%20=%20'ryder'%20+%20'@';%20addy38821%20=%20addy38821%20+%20'hotspotting'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'com'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'au';%20document.write('%3Ca%20'%20+%20path%20+%20'/''%20+%20prefix%20+%20':'%20+%20addy38821%20+%20'/'%3E');%20document.write(addy38821);%20document.write('%3C//a%3E');%20//--%3E/n%20%3C/script%3E%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'%3E%20%3C!--%20document.write('%3Cspan%20style=/'display:%20none;/'%3E');%20//--%3E%20%3C/script%3EThis%20email%20address%20is%20being%20protected%20from%20spambots.%20You%20need%20JavaScript%20enabled%20to%20view%20it.%20%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'%3E%20%3C!--%20document.write('%3C/');%20document.write('span%3E');%20//--%3E%20%3C/script%3E">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting">Twitter.</a>
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Growing signs resources-heavy regional property markets on the improve

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Australia's housing boom has cooled after five years of expansion. Sydney housing prices have stopped rising and price growth is slowing in Melbourne. The housing construction boom is past its peak. Thankfully, this is arriving just as the drag from falling mining investment and commodity prices is coming to its end.
 Importantly, the mining decline was much bigger, so the net effect should still be growth-positive. We see any negative 'wealth effect' from the end of housing boom as negligible. We see growth lifting in 2018 and expect it to be more broad-based across industries and regions than it has been in at least a decade.
Australia's housing boom has helped to fill the gap left by falling mining investment over the past five years, as the economy has needed to rebalance. Now, the housing boom is coming to its end (Chart 1). House prices have levelled out in Sydney since April and house price growth has slowed in Melbourne. The housing construction boom is also past its peak. Dwelling investment has already levelled out and is set to be a drag on overall growth from the second half of 2018, as the pipeline of apartment construction is completed.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/11/20/Figure1.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge</a>. 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/11/20/Figure1.jpg" alt="">
Thankfully, the fall in dwelling investment is arriving just as the mining investment drag is coming to its end and, importantly, the drag from mining was much bigger. The mining investment decline is set to go from a maximum drag of around 1.5ppts of GDP in mid-2016, to no drag at all by mid-2018 (Chart 2). By comparison, the dwelling investment contribution to growth, which was a maximum of around 0.5ppts of GDP in mid-2016, is forecast to be a drag of around 0.25ppts by 2019. The collective effect from these two sectors is that a net drag on GDP of around 1ppt in mid-2016 is set to be almost no drag at all in 2018 and 2019.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/11/20/Figure2.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/11/20/Figure2.jpg" alt="">
Of course, there are also other forces at work. Falling commodity prices, between 2011 and 2016, were a large drag on national incomes. The lift in commodity prices from their trough levels in early 2016 is now supporting growth in national incomes. There has also been a ramp up in investment in urban infrastructure, largely funded by state government asset sales, which is supporting local growth and is set to continue to ramp up through 2018. Finally, tourism and education exports, supported by a much lower AUD in recent years and rising middle class incomes in Asia, are helping to fill the gap left by falling mining investment.
Nonetheless, some observers have argued that the end of the housing boom may have a strong negative effect on the economy, which could weigh on overall growth over the next couple of years. The argument is that households will be less inclined to spend as the cooling of the housing boom means they are no longer seeing wealth gains. However, in our view, there has been little evidence of a positive wealth effect in recent years, so we see a large negative wealth effect as unlikely. 
The more downbeat observers point to the fall in the national household saving rate as evidence of a positive wealth effect. We disagree. Although the national household saving rate has fallen in recent years, the state-level numbers show that the saving rate has not fallen in the states which have had housing prices boom (NSW and Victoria) (Chart 3). If the rise in wealth had driven households to consume more, surely it would have happened in the states where wealth has been rising? Instead, household saving rates have only fallen in the mining states (WA and Queensland), after rising during the mining boom.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/11/20/Figure3.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/11/20/Figure3.jpg" alt="">
The moves in household saving rates therefore appear to reflect the impact of the resources cycle on incomes, not a wealth effect. Estimates of housing equity flows also suggest that households have been injecting equity into their dwellings in recent years, rather than withdrawing it, which is further evidence that there has not been a wealth effect. With no positive wealth effect, a negative wealth effect from the end of the housing boom seems unlikely.
Rather than wealth changes, the critical factor that has driven trends in household consumption in recent years has been household income growth. Weak growth in household consumption has been due to the slow growth in household incomes, reflecting weak jobs and wages growth at the end of the mining boom. However, as the mining sector starts to stabilise, we are now seeing the strongest growth in employment is coming from the mining states (WA and Queensland) (Chart 4). This should start to lift household income in those states and support consumption growth.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/11/20/Figure4.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/11/20/Figure4.jpg" alt="">
What we have not seen yet is a pick-up in wages growth. This is the final stage of the 'rebalancing act' at the end of the mining boom. The cyclical factors are now supportive of a pick-up in wages growth, although there are also structural factors weighing on wages. On the cyclical story, commodity prices have lifted, corporate profitability has improved, business conditions are at high levels and, critically, the labour market is tightening up. However, the structural factors weighing on wages growth include, the changing nature of work, due to technology, offshoring, as a result of globalisation, decreased unionisation, and, increasing casualization of the workforce, amongst others.
 
Our central case is that the cyclical factors, particularly the tightening of the labour market, will see a pick-up in wages growth in 2018, which will complete Australia's 'great rebalancing act'. We also expect growth to be more broad-based across industries and regions than it has been in at least a decade, which should help to see a pick-up in wages pressures as spare capacity from across the economy is absorbed. Of course, the clear risk is that this process takes longer than we have factored in, as the structural factors continue to offset the impact of the positive cyclical forces. The outlook for wages growth remains the main focus of the story.
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Australia's housing boom finished, but so is the drag from mining: HSBC'S Paul Bloxham

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/76461/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
As rents soar in Melbourne and Sydney, the rental market in Western Australia has become more affordable for low-wage workers since the end of the mining boom.
But many households still struggle to find affordable accommodation.
Today Anglicare released its annual national Rental Affordability Snapshot, which includes a focus on each state. 
In WA, 14,123 private rentals were advertised at the beginning of April, up 8% from a year ago. With increased stock, rents are becoming more affordable across the state. The median rent in the Perth metro area fell 11% to A$350; by 6% in the Southwest and Great Southern regions; and by 7% in the Northwest, including the Pilbara and Kimberley. 
Following years of inflated rents during the mining boom, working families in WA are seeing some real improvement in rental affordability – defined as less than 30% of household income. More than 46% of properties listed in Perth were found to be affordable for a couple both earning minimum wages and receiving Family Tax Benefit in 2017, compared to 39% in 2016. Similar families could afford 23% of properties in Melbourne and only 4% in Sydney. 
Single parents on a minimum wage had far fewer options. They could afford only 6% of listed properties in Perth. In all of Sydney and Melbourne, only one property was affordable for single parents on a minimum wage.
The situation remains dire for households on fixed incomes in WA – as it does for similar households across Australia. A person on a disability pension could afford only 25 properties (0.2% of available properties). A single parent could afford 48 (0.3%). And pensioners could afford 105 (2.7%) in all of WA. 
People on Newstart or Youth Allowance had no affordable options in the entire state. This includes boarding houses and share houses, where rooms are rented out individually. 
<h2>What are the consequences?</h2>
With more than 18,500 households on the waiting list for social housing and an average wait time of three years, most low-income households must find somewhere to live in the private rental market. When housing is unaffordable, low-income households end up paying a large percentage of their income on rent. Doing this means they forgo basic necessities, borrow money to stay afloat and, in some cases, experience homelessness. 
The number of people at risk of homelessness is increasing every year. More than 24,000 Western Australians sought help from a homelessness service in 2016, an increase of 5% from the previous year.
The slowing state economy has brought insecurity and uncertainty to many working families. With growing rates of unemployment and under-employment, and increased casualisation of the workforce, many WA households are in precarious financial circumstances. 
Anglicare WA financial counsellors report an increase in requests from tenants who have had to break their lease due to a job loss or needing to move interstate for employment. They find themselves liable for the period the rental remains vacant in the soft housing market, as well as the difference between the rent they paid and the likely reduced rent for new tenants. 
Landlords remain protected from the loss, while the tenants often end up paying for a home they no longer live in.
<h2>What can be done?</h2>
To start with, increasing the stock of social housing would go some way to overcoming the lack of affordable options for people on low incomes. 
The creation of affordable housing bonds, similar to those discussed by Treasurer Scott Morrison in his address to the Affordable Housing and Urban Research Institute earlier this month, would create a pool of funds for social housing providers to use to build more stock. However, such a mechanism is still many years off.
In the meantime, increasing the rate of Newstart from the current $268 per week to ensure a basic standard of living for job-seekers would bring households living in poverty back from the brink of homelessness. 
Two other policy options would also help improve housing affordability for people on low incomes. The government should remove distortionsin the tax system that inflate the cost of housing and discourage institutional investment in the private rental sector. Commonwealth Rent Assistance could also be increased and better targeted.
The main conclusion from this study is that broader discussions about housing affordability overlook the fact that the private rental market is not capable of meeting the needs of many people on low and fixed incomes without trapping them in poverty by consuming most of their available funds.
 
Shae Garwood is honorary research fellow, School of Social and Cultural Studies, University of Western Australia and author for The Conversation. She can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/shae-garwood-293422" target="_blank">here</a>.
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