Brisbane-based <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/red-co">Red &amp; Co Developments</a> has officially launched its $250million COMO apartment development in Varsity Lakes, while simultaneously commencing construction.&nbsp;

Building work is now underway at COMO following the appointment of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/5point-projects">5Point Projects</a> as contractor to deliver the boutique development which will rise on a 2857 sqm site overlooking Lake Orr at 22 Lake Street.

When completed, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/como-varsity-lakes-22-lake-street-varsity-lakes-qld-4227">COMO</a> will comprise 156 apartments across 16 levels located in the heart of Varsity Lakes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=363515]

The project, which will sit alongside Bond University, will deliver a diverse array of apartment designs comprising one-, two- and three-bedroom residences that have already attracted interest from local and interstate investors as well as an array of owner occupiers looking to gain a foothold in the precinct.

Red &amp; Co, which has largely focused on the Brisbane market in recent years where it has delivered more than 500 apartments and townhouses across 26 projects, has designed COMO to combine tranquil, lakeside living with the vibrant urban convenience of the vibrant Varsity Lakes village.

“We’re thrilled to announce a start to construction of COMO in conjunction with the official launch of the project, our first for the Gold Coast,” said Red &amp; Co Director and Co-Founder David Laverty.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=363509]

“COMO is superbly positioned to capture the essence of the Varsity Lakes village lifestyle and its thriving café and dining precinct, while delivering a much-needed diverse supply of premium residences for the local market.

“Pre-launch inquiries have been strong among both local and interstate investors and owner-occupiers, including downsizers and upgraders who appreciate the value proposition that COMO represents.”

Prices at COMO start from $1,000,050.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=363511]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bda-architecture">BDA Architecture</a>, the COMO development incorporates an extensive range of amenities for residents including a 25-metre rooftop lap pool, sundeck, barbecue and dining areas, as well as multiple rooftop pickleball and paddleball courts, a wellness and activity centre, gym, sauna, plunge baths and landscaped gardens.

“COMO presents a rare opportunity to secure a stylish, lifestyle-focused home in one of the Gold Coast’s most sought-after neighbourhoods,” added Laverty.

“The rooftop will be the epicentre of fun for residents with an array of amenities for residents that are quite unique for a boutique project such as this, all while offering spectacular vistas across the Gold Coast as far north as Southport and south to Burleigh.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=363514]

&nbsp;

Red &amp; Co has chosen the Varsity Lakes site for its proximity to top-tier schools, major shopping hubs, such as Robina Town Centre and its CBD offering, as well as key Gold Coast transport links, including Varsity Lakes Train Station.

COMO will be located just a short walk to shops, cafes and restaurants in Varsity Lakes and just a 10-minute drive to the Burleigh Heads beachfront.

With construction currently underway, Red &amp; Co anticipates COMO will be completed in 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135546]

Joel Robinson

Red & Co to launch debut Gold Coast development Como Varsity Lakes as construction commences

Longstanding Gold Coast developer Raptis has acquired a prime development site on Surf Parade for its next Broadbeach apartment project.

Progressing towards completion of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-sterling-broadbeach-6-8-george-avenue-broadbeach-qld-4218">The Sterling Broadbeach</a>, 90 apartments on nearby George Avenue, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/raptis">Raptis</a>, led by second-generation family man Evan Raptis, has picked up a block on the corner of Surf Parade and First Avenue.

The site had been earmarked for a luxury apartment project with 33 full-floor apartments across a 37-storey tower. Raptis will go back to the drawing board and create a building more appropriate for the site. The development application will be lodged later this month.

Evan Raptis told Apartments.com.au the site ticks all the boxes.

"Broadbeach is a suburb we've developed several buildings over the years. Surf Parade ticks all the boxes for the type of apartment development we want to deliver."

Raptis had several pre-lodgement meetings with council to ensure they are aligned in the development.

<img alt="Raptis" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="f0d58573-07a4-47a8-9f5e-fbf35fb03dc3" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-03-05%20at%204.58.23%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=iczZEd_4_o4UL0PHMPJGfy_q3tv96J5i" />

Surf Parade has emerged in recent years as one of the most popular streets in Broadbeach for development.

South East Queensland developer Mosaic Property Group kicked it off with Marella by Mosaic. Bassar Group sold out Infinity on the street, while for its&nbsp;first Gold Coast development, Polycell grabbed a Surf Parade site for <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-rochester-broadbeach-143-surf-parade-broadbeach-qld-4218">The Rochester</a>, which is nearly sold out.

Melbourne-based developer Hirsch &amp; Faigen recently launched its fourth Gold Coast project on the exclusive strip. The Eveleigh Broadbeach will have 100 apartments across a 31-storey building designed by Rothelowman.

GV Property Group site development specialists Antonio Mercuri and Luke Reaby, who both amalgamate sites and sell shovel-ready sites to developers up and down the Gold Coast, sold Surf Parade to Raptis.

Raptis secures prime Surf Parade site for next Broadbeach apartment development

Less than two years after breaking ground, Gardner Vaughan Group is celebrating the topping out of Bask, its second development in the exclusive coastal enclave of Bokarina on Queensland’s Sunshine Coast.&nbsp;

Located only minutes from the beachfront, the two seven-storey luxury apartment towers, known individually as Mydas and Caretta, offer a selection of one-to-four-bedroom residences with views of Lake Kawana, the Glasshouse Mountains, and Bokarina Beach.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=141609 project_image_fid=333359]

Gardner Vaughan Group Commercial Director Sam Gardner said the milestone marks the home stretch for construction, with first residents expected to be able to move in from Spring 2026.&nbsp;

“This is a significant milestone in bringing this development to life and represents our confidence in this region’s long-term growth and appeal,” Gardner said.&nbsp;

“With 85 per cent of apartments already sold, buyers are joining an established, coastal village that offers the very best of the Sunshine Coast – seasonally patrolled surf beaches, renowned restaurants, and links to established health and retail.&nbsp;

“The final collection of three- and four- bedroom apartments range in size from 127sqm to 300sqm, each with two or three secure car parks and storage, and with construction fast approaching completion we don’t expect the last few apartments to remain on the market for long.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=141609 project_image_fid=333362]

Local restaurateur Luke Stringer, who co-owns and manages the award-winning Bocca Italian and Playa Mexican restaurants in Bokarina, has lived in the beachside suburb for 18 months and worked there for more than three years, and said the beachside suburb was thriving.&nbsp;

“It’s fair to say Bokarina is finally stepping into the sun and there’s a lot to love about the place,"&nbsp;Stringer said.

"It’s such a great community, where you see the same smiling faces every morning and everything’s within easy reach – it’s the perfect hub in the middle of the Sunshine Coast.

“When we first opened Bocca Italian, we were the lone restaurant, but it’s been amazing to see how the area has grown. The more venues that open, the busier it gets for everyone. When Playa Mexican opened its first Saturday night, Bocca had a record night and Playa was packed too, which blew us away how everyone is thriving.&nbsp;

“There’s a great energy around the place now, and people are really embracing Bokarina as a food and lifestyle destination.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=141609 project_image_fid=363368]

Stringer joined other buyers at Bask Bokarina and the Gardner Vaughan Group team to celebrate the topping out at a special event in February.&nbsp;

Located in Kawana Waters, midway between Caloundra and Maroochydore, Bokarina locals enjoy scenic walking paths around Lake Kawana, playgrounds, beachfront boardwalk and parklands, alongside all the convenience of a masterplanned beachside community.&nbsp;

“You see people jogging or swimming in the morning, then grabbing coffee at the cafes, people are really embracing the area and all this growth is bringing more people to Bokarina,” Stringer added.&nbsp;

To take advantage of the vistas, each of the 135 apartments at Bask is designed with full size windows and high ceilings that provide an abundance of natural light.&nbsp;

Prices for the remaining three-bedroom apartments start at $1,599,000 and four-bedroom apartments start at $3,149,000.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=141609 project_image_fid=363369]

The mixed-use development also features ground-level retail space for cafés, dining options and boutiques, including the soon-to-be-opened ‘Corner Shop’, by the team behind Noosa’s well known ‘Organika’.

Sam Gardner said Gardner Vaughan Group’s 37-year history building and developing across South East Queensland has contributed to the success of its second development in Bokarina, which follows the recently completed Zinc Apartments.&nbsp;

“We care how people live and this is reflected in the way we approach the design and delivery of every development,” he said. “Furthermore, as a builder-developer we have full control over the construction program and our 100 per cent completion rate is something people can draw confidence from.”&nbsp;

Founded by civil engineers Guy Gardner and Darryl Vaughan in 1989, the family-owned business has evolved from a consultancy firm to an award-winning builder-developer, with projects across the Sunshine Coast, Moreton Bay, Brisbane and the Gold Coast.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=141609]

Gardner Vaughan Group tops out Bask Bokarina apartments

Prolific Melbourne developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/hirsch-faigen">Hirsch &amp; Faigen</a> has launched its fourth new Gold Coast development in as many years.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/hirsch-faigen">Hirsch &amp; Faigen</a>, led by Daniel Faigen and backed by Eddie Hirsch, co-founder of United Petroleum, has unveiled The Eveleigh, on a prime 1,100 sqm site at 7-9 Surf Parade in the heart of Broadbeach.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-eveleigh-broadbeach-7-9-surf-parade-broadbeach-qld-4218">The Eveleigh</a> will deliver 100 apartments across 31 levels, making it the company’s largest Gold Coast project to date. It builds on the success of its three earlier developments, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/hemingway-1267-1273-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach">The Hemingway in Palm Beach</a> and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/emerson-kirra-100-musgrave-street-coolangatta">The Emerson at Kirra</a>, both completed, and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/yves-mermaid-beach-7-9-mermaid-avenue-mermaid-beach">Yves Mermaid Beach</a>, which is nearing completion.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=149670 project_image_fid=360966]

The announcement of The Eveleigh affirms the company’s sustained confidence in the Gold Coast market which continues to remain undersupplied. It also increases the value of Hirsch &amp; Fa​igen’s Gold Coast development portfolio to more than $700 million since the company first entered the market in 2021 with Hemingway.

The company has enlisted its preferred architecture firm Rothelowman to design The Eveleigh, which will offer a thoughtfully curated lifestyle, including a substantial wellness precinct, communal recreation areas, children’s play spaces, work-from-home facilities, and shared lounge and dining areas.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=149670 project_image_fid=360965]

Designed for the prime market demographic of downsizers and interstate lifestyle investors in mind, The Eveleigh has been crafted to offer an increasingly rare blend of affordable luxury in a tightly held market. Uniquely positioned in the heart of the Gold Coast’s most sought-after lifestyle suburb of Broadbeach, the project will also boast uninterrupted beach and hinterland views.

The Surf Parade site is just a short walk to the bustling Broadbeach dining and retail precinct, Pacific Fair, The Star Gold Coast and convention centre, and an easy stroll to Kurrawa Beach and the recreational amenity of Pratten Park on the Broadbeach foreshore.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=149670 project_image_fid=360975]

“We’re excited to be proceeding with our fourth project on the Gold Coast in what is certain to become the new luxury precinct in Broadbeach,” says Anthony Bueti, the CFO of Hirsch &amp;a​mp; Faigen and a shareholder of the group.

“With the likes of Mosa​ic and Abedian &amp;a​mp; Co also launching quality projects in the area, the transformation will cement Broadbeach as the premier lifestyle and amenity suburb on the Gold Coast.

"After four years in the Gold Coast market, and with three successful projects completed, The Eveleigh is the product of everything we have learned to love about the Gold Coast and it will be an incredible addition to our growing portfolio in one of the most vibrant property markets in the country. We continue to remain very confident in the high-end Gold Coast property market.”

Urban Activation Director Matt George is handling sales for The Eveleigh, having sold out The Emerson, The Hemingway, and Yves, all before construction was completed.

Melbourne builder MAXCON has already commenced construction on The Eveleigh. They are forecasting a mid-2028 completion.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=149670]

Hirsch & Faigen unveils The Eveleigh in Broadbeach

Two years after securing development approval for the final stage of its award-winning Thornton Precinct on the doorstep of Penrith Station, Urban Property Group is set to launch <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/mayfair-on-penrith-172-lord-sheffield-circuit-penrith-nsw-2750">Mayfair on Penrith</a>, around 400 apartments designed to reflect two of Sydney’s most iconic structures.

The builder-developer has continued refining the design plans for the two-building development on a significant 8,280 sqm site on Sheffield Circuit, recognising the importance of the prime parcel as one of the closest developable sites to the station.

UPG enlisted architecture firm SJB to design the project. The team said they drew inspiration from both the General Post Office in Martin Place and East Circular Quay to help shape the design. The two-level colonnade, in particular, reflects the famous GPO building, which dates back to the 1860s.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136726 project_image_fid=362014]

There will be one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments on offer, with interiors by Cox Architecture. Residences will sit above a retail podium featuring hospitality and lifestyle operators such as One Playground and Volcano’s Steakhouse, contributing to an activated ground plane within the broader Thornton precinct.

A communal rooftop with a pool and views towards the Blue Mountains will provide shared open space for residents. The development is positioned between Ron Mulock Oval and Westfield Penrith, with the Nepean River and Great River Walk also nearby, placing daily amenity and green space within walking distance.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136726 project_image_fid=362015]

Mayfair is being delivered by Urban Property Group, a family-owned developer and builder with nearly 40 years’ experience across Sydney. The project will be the first in Penrith to be offered with Resilience Insurance’s 10-year Latent Defects Insurance (LDI) policy, which Urban Property Group has adopted across a number of its recent developments. The developer also has a 4.5-star iCIRT rating, one of the best ratings in market providing further confidence to buyers.

Urban Property Group CEO Patrick Elias said providing additional assurance to off-the-plan buyers has become increasingly important.

“Anything we can do to give confidence in our product is a plus,” Elias told Apartments.com.au.

“Consumers are a lot more weary and a lot more concerned in buying off the plan than they ever have been. They’re making their single large investment, which is their home, and providing confidence is something that we feel is paramount.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136726 project_image_fid=362020]

The LDI policy provides a 10-year warranty covering structural defects, with independent inspections carried out during construction and protection for owners if defects arise post-completion.

Mayfair represents Urban Property Group’s sixth and final development within Thornton, consolidating the masterplanned precinct immediately east of the station.

The developer, which builds its own projects, has already commenced construction. SRM Residential is handling the sales campaign.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=136726]

Urban Property Group to close the curtain on award-winning Thornton precinct with Mayfair on Penrith release

Mining Boom

<html><body>
There are growing reasons for hope and optimism for property investors who bought in resources-related towns at the height of the mining investment boom.
The question I get asked most often is “when will Gladstone recover?” - or similar questions about other resources-impacted regional centres around Australia.
For the past couple of years, the honest answer did not give much cheer to those holding properties worth considerably less than they paid and earning a lot less in rent than before (if a tenant could be found at all).
But now, increasingly, the news is more positive. Many of these places are showing definite signs of recovery and investors can look forward to the prospect of better prices and rentals.
I’m not suggesting anyone should rush out and buy in these places, most of which sit at the high-risk end of the investment spectrum – just that, for those who own property there (it’s amazing how many people do), there is light at the end of a very long tunnel.
In our latest edition of the Price Predictor Index, the number of Regional Queensland locations classified as Danger markets has dropped from a record high of 31 late in 2016 to 19 now. 
Markets showing signs of recovery include Dalby, Emerald, Moranbah, Rockhampton, Mackay and the Whitsundays. 
Mackay is showing quite strong signs of returning to growth, with sales activity up, vacancies down and some evidence of prices rising again. With the Central Queensland mining industry revitalising, Mackay is likely to show some reasonable growth in the next couple of years.
Dalby’s economic and property fortunes rose and fell with the fortunes of the coal seam gas industry in the Surat Basin. Right now, its median house price ($255,000) is lower than it was five years ago but likely to recover in the near future.
Quarterly sales in Dalby over the past two years have been 32, 33, 41, 43, 50, 52, 65 and 75, a pattern that confirms the recovery in this market. Vacancies have dropped to around 2%, according to SQM Research.
Some of the worst-affected markets still have high vacancies and falling property values - and should be approached with caution. 
They include Mount Isa and Gladstone. Mount Isa still has eight suburbs classified as Danger markets and Gladstone still has six. Gladstone should improve, as the overall vacancy rate has dropped from a peak of 12% early in 2016 to around 3.5% now - still a little too high, but the trend is encouraging.
Regional areas of WA are nudging towards recovery, notably the resources-related centres in the north of the state.
Karratha and Port Hedland/South Hedland both have sales activity heading in the right direction again, a factor confirmed by our latest survey of sales volumes and also by new figures for the June Quarter from the Real Estate Institute of WA.
At the pinnacle of the resources investment boom, the median house price for Port Hedland was well above $1 million. 
The latest figures show a median price around $395,000. This is 14% above the level of a year ago, though still well below the peak during the resources boom. 
The median price bottomed out around $350,000 earlier in the year, so there appear to be early signs of growth.
But we continue to urge caution - this kind of volatility is common in resources-related markets and they are not for the faint-hearted.
Similarly, there is a general pattern of growth in the Karratha market - and a similar history with prices.
The Karratha market was achieving only 45-55 sales per quarter in 2015 but in the past six quarters have each topped 80 sales. 
Typical house prices in Karratha are now below $300,000, compared with $700,000 to $800,000 at the peak of the resources investment boom.
Median prices in the Karratha area include $260,000 for Bulgarra (up 13% in the past 12 months but down 40% over 3 years), $345,000 for Nickol (up 28% in 12 months but 20% below the levels of three years ago) and $250,000 for Pegs Creek (up 5% in 12 months but still 42% below the levels of three years ago).
There is even a glimmer of recovery in sales activity in the remote resources town of Newman, with a median price ($145,000) at a fraction of the boom-time levels. 
Sales levels in Newman have improved, although from a very low base - in 2015 there were only 11 sales in the town, but there were 57 in 2016 and 75 in 2017.
The Kalgoorlie-Boulder market remains well below par. In 2012/2013 this market was recording around 250 sales per quarter but in the past 12 months fewer than 125 per quarter. We continue to classify Kalgoorlie as a Danger market.
In South Australia, former growth star Whyalla has been classified in The Price Predictor Index as a Danger market over the past two years, but there is hope for better things. 
Our latest quarterly survey shows signs of an upturn in sales, but at levels still well below the resources-fuelled peak of 2013/2014.
Sales in the past four quarters have been 10, 30, 31  and 37, which shows a pattern of improvement, but compares to quarterly sales of 96, 99, 89 and 84 in 2012-13.
Better news about the future of ailing steel maker Arrium, one of the region’s major employers, gives rise to hope for recovery in the local economy and property market. 
I await the next few quarterly surveys to see whether recent signs of upturn in sales activity are real.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
ryder@hotspotting.com.au
twitter.com/hotspotting
</body></html>

terryryder-YECXbqmri2

When will Gladstone recover? Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
State Government approvals which appear to green light the Adani coal project represent a clear and present danger for property investors with poor research and short memories. 
I was alarmed to see News Ltd media publishing stories with headlines like this: “Adani impact: Mining towns on cusp of a housing boom”.
This article was repeated in various forms of media across the nation, with content like this: “After years of poor property price growth, cities like Gladstone, Rockhampton and Emerald are poised to become an investors’ paradise following the State Government’s decision to give the green light for the Adani mine in the Galilee Basin.
“Home prices in towns like Bowen, Longreach and Moranbah, which are up to 73% below their peak, could be on the cusp of a major rebound with work on the Carmichael coal mine set to start immediately.”
Investors’ paradise? Seriously? This is the pinnacle in irresponsible journalism. Anything goes, it seems, in the interests of creating clickbait.
And Longreach to experience an Adani related boom? It’s about 600km south-west of the mine site and, as far as I can tell, has nothing to do with the project or its alleged benefits. (There have been some concerns expressed by Longreach farmers about negative impacts on water resources).
Let’s get some perspective. Mining towns have shown themselves in the recent past to be more of a fool’s paradise than an investor’s paradise. They’re at the extreme danger end of the risk spectrum for property investors. More people have lost money than made fortunes investing in places like Moranbah and Gladstone.
There’s no doubt that many of these places have shown exceptional price growth at times in their history and have also delivered periods of very high rental returns. But the booms have been followed by disastrous busts.
At one point, during the last resources investment boom, Moranbah’s median house price topped $700,000. It had an annual average growth rate around 30% - that’s 30% per year over 10 years. Weekly rents around $1,500 were common.
But what happened next is the core lesson for investors: the major mining companies became fed up with paying those sorts of rents and prices for very ordinary houses. And they came up with a new model that cost them less – they constructed temporary workers’ camps to accommodate fly-in-fly-out (FIFO) workers.
The median house price of Moranbah dropped to around $150,000 and vacancies went above 10%, with a dramatic negative effect on rents.
In the past year or so, the market there has started to recover. Vacancies have come down to below 2% and prices are rising again (from a very low base). 
But will the opening of major new mines create a new housing boom? It’s unlikely, because the mining companies have established a successful model of FIFO workers and workers camps. Those crazy booms of the past won’t be repeated. Any peripheral upsurge in values will be temporary.
Right now, the long-term growth rate for Moranbah prices (the average annual change over the past 10 years) is -3% per year. That’s minus 3% per year. Which means the current median price – around $205,000 – is considerably lower than it was 10 years ago.
The Moranbah story has been repeated in mining-related locations elsewhere in Queensland, including Gladstone, Emerald and the towns of the Surat Basin. It’s also happened, spectacularly, in resources centres in Western Australia, like Port Hedland and Karratha.
Gladstone had a big property market slump while three huge gas plants costing $60 billion were under construction. The market in Newman in the Pilbara region of WA dived while Gina Rinehart was building a $10 billion iron ore mine near the town.
All suffered from the same syndrome: while developers built lots of new dwellings in anticipation of a property boom, the resources companies built workers camps and many of the new homes sat empty, creating a property downturn.
The notion that a big new mine means a housing boom for nearby towns is no longer valid.
And, when you read a little deeper into the News Ltd article, you find this:
CoreLogic senior research analyst Cameron Kusher said it was hard to say what the approval of the mine would mean for the surrounding regions because there was still a lot of contention around how many local jobs would be created.
“If you assume job creation is significant, it will increase demand for housing both from a purchase and rental perspective,” Mr Kusher said. “The challenge will be that since the end of the mining boom these areas have seen very low demand for housing so, if demand exceeds supply you would expect rents and prices to increase, however, I can’t say with any confidence whether that will or won’t be the case.”
I agree with those sentiments. And I would go further – the big property booms in mining towns are history, unless the miners’ modus operandi changes.
There will be some benefits to property markets from the Adani mine, if it goes ahead (it still has some federal regulatory hurdles to get over). Townsville will benefit from having the project HQ, Bowen is close to the export port and may get some spinoff - and Mackay may benefit through proximity and the ability to provide workers, perhaps.
I regard Mackay as a growth property market, because it is benefitting from the revival in Central Queensland mining plus – and this is the key factor – it has other growth elements to its economy. It’s not solely reliant on a buoyant mining sector.
Investors seeking to exploit the Central Queensland mining revival would be better off considering the larger, more diversified regional cities like Mackay, rather than the small towns near the mine sites.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
 
</body></html>

Be careful of “The Adani Boom” hype: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

<html><body>
There are growing signs that some regional markets impacted by the resources sector have passed the worst and are starting to improve.
These are locations where increased dwelling supply coincided with a downturn in demand as the mining investment boom subsided (or miners built workers camps), causing sales and prices to fall.
Places where demand appears to be rising again include NSW towns impacted by the coal industry (Muswellbrook, Singleton and Mudgee), WA centres for the iron ore and gas sectors (Port Hedland and Karratha), and Queensland towns impacted by coal (Emerald, Mackay and Moranbah).
But that’s not a signal for investors to start buying in these places again. I would hope the many boom-bust scenarios that occurred over the past 4-5 years has left a lasting impression on investors across Australia.
Before the end of the resources investment boom, far too many investors jumped into these markets without understanding the extreme volatility of them and/or their own risk profiles.
The extent of the slump in some of these locations is demonstrated by these figures: at the pinnacle of the resources investment boom, the median house price for Port Hedland in WA was well above $1 million. The latest figures shows a median price around $400,000, following a further 33 percent decline in the past year.
In the coal-mining town of Moranbah in Central Queensland, the median house price has fallen from above $700,000 at the peak of the boom to around $160,000 today.
These are some of the most extreme examples of decline but there are many others, including Queensland centres like Gladstone, Mackay, Emerald and Surat Basin towns such as Chinchilla.
In many cases the downturn in local markets was not caused by any decline in the key resources industry (in many cases it was the CSG/LNG sector which continued to create jobs and economic activity in the affected locations) but by a fundamental switch in the approach of the mining companies to accommodating personnel in workers camps.
Developers who built lots of new product in these places found out, too late, that there was not the expected demand for local dwellings. Places like Gladstone in Queensland and Newman in WA had a boom economy but a doom property market.
Now there is evidence that sales activity is rising in some of these places, after slumping significantly in the past three years. In 2015, each quarter had fewer than 45 sales for Port Hedland and South Hedland combined. But the past three quarters have each had more than 60 sales, with a pattern of rising sales numbers.
In Karratha, residential sales numbered fewer than 55 in most quarters throughout the three years covering 2013 to 2015. But sales activity rose noticeably in 2016, with the past three quarters each delivering more than 75 sales. The general trend is up and we await evidence that 2017 will continue the pattern.
In the meantime, I urge extreme caution for investors considering dipping a toe in these dangerous waters. Resources-related markets are at the high-risk end of the spectrum - there are periods of sharp rises, often followed by catastrophic decline.
I would never buy in these places, because the risks are too high. And the modern trend of workers camps mean that the dwelling demand generated by major mining projects is considerably lower than in the past.
A warning is timely because there is renewed confidence in the resources sector. New projects are being planned and mothballed ventures are being reactivated, particularly in Queensland and WA. As sales activity rises in resources centres, the industry will be pumping out press releases suggesting the boom days are returning.
Hopefully the massive price and rental decline of recent years will live long in the memories of investors.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can  <a href="mailto:%20%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'%3E%20%3C!--%20var%20prefix%20=%20'ma'%20+%20'il'%20+%20'to';%20var%20path%20=%20'hr'%20+%20'ef'%20+%20'=';%20var%20addy38821%20=%20'ryder'%20+%20'@';%20addy38821%20=%20addy38821%20+%20'hotspotting'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'com'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'au';%20document.write('%3Ca%20'%20+%20path%20+%20'/''%20+%20prefix%20+%20':'%20+%20addy38821%20+%20'/'%3E');%20document.write(addy38821);%20document.write('%3C//a%3E');%20//--%3E/n%20%3C/script%3E%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'%3E%20%3C!--%20document.write('%3Cspan%20style=/'display:%20none;/'%3E');%20//--%3E%20%3C/script%3EThis%20email%20address%20is%20being%20protected%20from%20spambots.%20You%20need%20JavaScript%20enabled%20to%20view%20it.%20%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'%3E%20%3C!--%20document.write('%3C/');%20document.write('span%3E');%20//--%3E%20%3C/script%3E">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting">Twitter.</a>
</body></html>

Growing signs resources-heavy regional property markets on the improve

<html><body>
Australia's housing boom has cooled after five years of expansion. Sydney housing prices have stopped rising and price growth is slowing in Melbourne. The housing construction boom is past its peak. Thankfully, this is arriving just as the drag from falling mining investment and commodity prices is coming to its end.
 Importantly, the mining decline was much bigger, so the net effect should still be growth-positive. We see any negative 'wealth effect' from the end of housing boom as negligible. We see growth lifting in 2018 and expect it to be more broad-based across industries and regions than it has been in at least a decade.
Australia's housing boom has helped to fill the gap left by falling mining investment over the past five years, as the economy has needed to rebalance. Now, the housing boom is coming to its end (Chart 1). House prices have levelled out in Sydney since April and house price growth has slowed in Melbourne. The housing construction boom is also past its peak. Dwelling investment has already levelled out and is set to be a drag on overall growth from the second half of 2018, as the pipeline of apartment construction is completed.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/11/20/Figure1.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge</a>. 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/11/20/Figure1.jpg" alt="">
Thankfully, the fall in dwelling investment is arriving just as the mining investment drag is coming to its end and, importantly, the drag from mining was much bigger. The mining investment decline is set to go from a maximum drag of around 1.5ppts of GDP in mid-2016, to no drag at all by mid-2018 (Chart 2). By comparison, the dwelling investment contribution to growth, which was a maximum of around 0.5ppts of GDP in mid-2016, is forecast to be a drag of around 0.25ppts by 2019. The collective effect from these two sectors is that a net drag on GDP of around 1ppt in mid-2016 is set to be almost no drag at all in 2018 and 2019.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/11/20/Figure2.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/11/20/Figure2.jpg" alt="">
Of course, there are also other forces at work. Falling commodity prices, between 2011 and 2016, were a large drag on national incomes. The lift in commodity prices from their trough levels in early 2016 is now supporting growth in national incomes. There has also been a ramp up in investment in urban infrastructure, largely funded by state government asset sales, which is supporting local growth and is set to continue to ramp up through 2018. Finally, tourism and education exports, supported by a much lower AUD in recent years and rising middle class incomes in Asia, are helping to fill the gap left by falling mining investment.
Nonetheless, some observers have argued that the end of the housing boom may have a strong negative effect on the economy, which could weigh on overall growth over the next couple of years. The argument is that households will be less inclined to spend as the cooling of the housing boom means they are no longer seeing wealth gains. However, in our view, there has been little evidence of a positive wealth effect in recent years, so we see a large negative wealth effect as unlikely. 
The more downbeat observers point to the fall in the national household saving rate as evidence of a positive wealth effect. We disagree. Although the national household saving rate has fallen in recent years, the state-level numbers show that the saving rate has not fallen in the states which have had housing prices boom (NSW and Victoria) (Chart 3). If the rise in wealth had driven households to consume more, surely it would have happened in the states where wealth has been rising? Instead, household saving rates have only fallen in the mining states (WA and Queensland), after rising during the mining boom.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/11/20/Figure3.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/11/20/Figure3.jpg" alt="">
The moves in household saving rates therefore appear to reflect the impact of the resources cycle on incomes, not a wealth effect. Estimates of housing equity flows also suggest that households have been injecting equity into their dwellings in recent years, rather than withdrawing it, which is further evidence that there has not been a wealth effect. With no positive wealth effect, a negative wealth effect from the end of the housing boom seems unlikely.
Rather than wealth changes, the critical factor that has driven trends in household consumption in recent years has been household income growth. Weak growth in household consumption has been due to the slow growth in household incomes, reflecting weak jobs and wages growth at the end of the mining boom. However, as the mining sector starts to stabilise, we are now seeing the strongest growth in employment is coming from the mining states (WA and Queensland) (Chart 4). This should start to lift household income in those states and support consumption growth.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/11/20/Figure4.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/11/20/Figure4.jpg" alt="">
What we have not seen yet is a pick-up in wages growth. This is the final stage of the 'rebalancing act' at the end of the mining boom. The cyclical factors are now supportive of a pick-up in wages growth, although there are also structural factors weighing on wages. On the cyclical story, commodity prices have lifted, corporate profitability has improved, business conditions are at high levels and, critically, the labour market is tightening up. However, the structural factors weighing on wages growth include, the changing nature of work, due to technology, offshoring, as a result of globalisation, decreased unionisation, and, increasing casualization of the workforce, amongst others.
 
Our central case is that the cyclical factors, particularly the tightening of the labour market, will see a pick-up in wages growth in 2018, which will complete Australia's 'great rebalancing act'. We also expect growth to be more broad-based across industries and regions than it has been in at least a decade, which should help to see a pick-up in wages pressures as spare capacity from across the economy is absorbed. Of course, the clear risk is that this process takes longer than we have factored in, as the structural factors continue to offset the impact of the positive cyclical forces. The outlook for wages growth remains the main focus of the story.
</body></html>

jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Australia's housing boom finished, but so is the drag from mining: HSBC'S Paul Bloxham

<html><body>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/76461/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
As rents soar in Melbourne and Sydney, the rental market in Western Australia has become more affordable for low-wage workers since the end of the mining boom.
But many households still struggle to find affordable accommodation.
Today Anglicare released its annual national Rental Affordability Snapshot, which includes a focus on each state. 
In WA, 14,123 private rentals were advertised at the beginning of April, up 8% from a year ago. With increased stock, rents are becoming more affordable across the state. The median rent in the Perth metro area fell 11% to A$350; by 6% in the Southwest and Great Southern regions; and by 7% in the Northwest, including the Pilbara and Kimberley. 
Following years of inflated rents during the mining boom, working families in WA are seeing some real improvement in rental affordability – defined as less than 30% of household income. More than 46% of properties listed in Perth were found to be affordable for a couple both earning minimum wages and receiving Family Tax Benefit in 2017, compared to 39% in 2016. Similar families could afford 23% of properties in Melbourne and only 4% in Sydney. 
Single parents on a minimum wage had far fewer options. They could afford only 6% of listed properties in Perth. In all of Sydney and Melbourne, only one property was affordable for single parents on a minimum wage.
The situation remains dire for households on fixed incomes in WA – as it does for similar households across Australia. A person on a disability pension could afford only 25 properties (0.2% of available properties). A single parent could afford 48 (0.3%). And pensioners could afford 105 (2.7%) in all of WA. 
People on Newstart or Youth Allowance had no affordable options in the entire state. This includes boarding houses and share houses, where rooms are rented out individually. 
<h2>What are the consequences?</h2>
With more than 18,500 households on the waiting list for social housing and an average wait time of three years, most low-income households must find somewhere to live in the private rental market. When housing is unaffordable, low-income households end up paying a large percentage of their income on rent. Doing this means they forgo basic necessities, borrow money to stay afloat and, in some cases, experience homelessness. 
The number of people at risk of homelessness is increasing every year. More than 24,000 Western Australians sought help from a homelessness service in 2016, an increase of 5% from the previous year.
The slowing state economy has brought insecurity and uncertainty to many working families. With growing rates of unemployment and under-employment, and increased casualisation of the workforce, many WA households are in precarious financial circumstances. 
Anglicare WA financial counsellors report an increase in requests from tenants who have had to break their lease due to a job loss or needing to move interstate for employment. They find themselves liable for the period the rental remains vacant in the soft housing market, as well as the difference between the rent they paid and the likely reduced rent for new tenants. 
Landlords remain protected from the loss, while the tenants often end up paying for a home they no longer live in.
<h2>What can be done?</h2>
To start with, increasing the stock of social housing would go some way to overcoming the lack of affordable options for people on low incomes. 
The creation of affordable housing bonds, similar to those discussed by Treasurer Scott Morrison in his address to the Affordable Housing and Urban Research Institute earlier this month, would create a pool of funds for social housing providers to use to build more stock. However, such a mechanism is still many years off.
In the meantime, increasing the rate of Newstart from the current $268 per week to ensure a basic standard of living for job-seekers would bring households living in poverty back from the brink of homelessness. 
Two other policy options would also help improve housing affordability for people on low incomes. The government should remove distortionsin the tax system that inflate the cost of housing and discourage institutional investment in the private rental sector. Commonwealth Rent Assistance could also be increased and better targeted.
The main conclusion from this study is that broader discussions about housing affordability overlook the fact that the private rental market is not capable of meeting the needs of many people on low and fixed incomes without trapping them in poverty by consuming most of their available funds.
 
Shae Garwood is honorary research fellow, School of Social and Cultural Studies, University of Western Australia and author for The Conversation. She can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/shae-garwood-293422" target="_blank">here</a>.
</body></html>

Mining Boom

Editor's Picks

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News

Mining Boom

Editor's Picks

Receive the latest news stories to your inbox

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News