&nbsp;

A local Australian has spent a Lower North Shore record $15.1 million at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/elevate-hume-place-crows-nest-25-hume-street-crows-nest-nsw-2065">Elevate Hume Place</a>, the new TOD above the recently opened Crows Nest Metro Station.

The buyer amalgamated a penthouse and sub-penthouse to create the triplex apartment that will have five bedrooms, five bathrooms, a private rooftop pool, expansive terrace, and panoramic views of Sydney Harbour and skyline. The building is being created by burgeoning developer Third.i, alongside joint venture partner Phoenix Property Investors.

The buyer was drawn to Elevate’s unrivalled connectivity, situated directly above the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/crows-nest-nsw-2065">Crows Nest</a> Metro Station, and the vibrant lifestyle precinct that surrounds it. The Metro connects to the CBD in just seven minutes, and Chatswood in four.

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Designed by internationally acclaimed architects <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/woods-bagot">Woods Bagot</a>, Elevate draws inspiration from the ancient blue gum forests native to the area. The building is a Net Zero development, created in consultation with Indigenous communities and exceeding sustainability benchmarks. Interiors feature chevron-engineered timber flooring, natural stone benchtops, and premium Sub-Zero Wolf appliances, delivering timeless elegance and next-level comfort.

The exchange of the $15.1 million apartment, follows a recent $5 million sale, and over $30 million currently in expressions of interests. Interest in Elevate’s penthouse stock has surged, reflecting a strong appetite for ultra-luxury residences that combine design excellence with unmatched connectivity.

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“We’re seeing a significant uptick in interest from local and international buyers who are prioritising connectivity, sustainability, and lifestyle,” said Callum Billinghurst, Head of Sales at Third.i Group.&nbsp;

“These recent sales are a testament to the vision behind Elevate. It’s not just about luxury finishes or panoramic views, it’s about creating homes that are deeply connected to the city and the community. Buyers are responding to that. They want to live somewhere that offers more than just a postcode, they want culture, convenience, and long-term value. Elevate delivers all of that, and more.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=142550 project_image_fid=297878]

As part of the Hume Place precinct, Elevate is transforming Crows Nest into Sydney’s most dynamic urban village. Elevate’s unique position directly above the metro, combined with its curated amenity offering, has made it a magnet for buyers seeking a future-proof investment and a vibrant urban lifestyle.

The next release at Elevate is expected later this year.

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“We’re seeing a significant uptick in interest from local and international buyers who are prioritising connectivity, sustainability, and lifestyle,” said Callum Billinghurst, Head of Sales at Third.i Group


Joel Robinson

Third.i & PPI set Lower North Shore apartment record with $15.1m sale at Elevate Hume Place penthouse amalgamation

Sydney developer Deicorp is set to officially open its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/hills-showground-village-castle-hill-2-mandala-parade-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Showground Village</a> precinct in Castle Hill.

NSW Premier Chris Minns will attend the opening on Sunday August 31, alongside&nbsp;Minister for Planning and Public Spaces Paul Scully, The Hills Shire Council Mayor Dr Michelle Byrne, Landcom CEO Alex Wendler, and Deicorp Founder Fouad Deiri.

Located just moments from Hills Showground Metro Station, the centre spans 9,500 sqm across four levels and features 26 specialty retailers as well as a 1,400 sqm public plaza, creating a new community meeting point for shopping, dining, fitness, and everyday convenience.&nbsp;

Showground Village forms part of the Hills Showground Station Precinct, an urban renewal initiative led by Landcom and Sydney Metro that will provide for around 2,300 new jobs over the next 20 years and around 9,000 new homes.&nbsp;

Deicorp was recently approved for another new development next door to Showground Village.

The new five residential buildings in the East Showgrounds Precinct, will see another 873 dwellings delivered, as well as&nbsp;3,500 sqm of open public space in the form of landscaped courtyards, a public park and communal outdoor recreational space including a playground, barbeque area, and outdoor seating.

“This approval will allow us to start construction on a range of beautifully designed, conveniently located apartments and create another vibrant, walkable and well-connected community,” said&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/deicorp" target="">Deicorp</a>&nbsp;Founder Fouad Deiri.

“These new homes will provide their residents with a seamless connection to jobs and services along Metro North West, and the new&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/hills-showground-village-castle-hill-2-mandala-parade-castle-hill" target="">Hills Showground Village</a>&nbsp;retail precinct currently under construction."

Deicorp has several thousand apartments in planning and under construction across Sydney, from Zetland and Five Dock to Crows Nest and Macquarie Park.

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Deicorp, NSW Premier officially open Showground Village, new retail and hospitality hub in Castle Hill

ASX-listed developer Cedar Woods is progressing its plans for its Southbank arts precinct site.&nbsp;

The developer has filed plans, which are now with the&nbsp;Department of Transport and Planning, for a new 20-level tower at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/141-151-sturt-street-southbank-vic-3006">141–151 Sturt Street</a>, a 2,718 sqm block opposite the Habitat Filter sculpture.

The proposal seeks to demolish the two-level&nbsp;commercial building, including a small supermarket and medical tenancies, and create a new building with 180 apartments and a focus on an&nbsp;active public realm and arts integration.

&nbsp;

<img alt="Southbank site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="76a72db6-91ef-43ae-827d-a9cfa72893d2" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Site.png?VersionId=DZgtB4K6BswVh0QtCs3iLjXaLp0CbcEb" />

&nbsp;

There will be a full mix of apartment configurations, including 28 studio apartments, 16 one-bedroom, 104 two-bedroom, and 32 three-bedroom units.

Retail, creative arts, and residential amenity functions are integrated across the lower levels. A food and drink tenancy is planned to front Dodds Street, while a retail tenancy fronting Sturt Street will be accessed via an elevated walkway. The first floor includes a substantial 734 sqm creative arts space, envisioned to support Melbourne’s growing cultural and digital industries.

Architecture firm <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a> has put together the plans. In their&nbsp;Urban Design Report they highlighted the project’s ambition to embed itself within Southbank’s evolving cultural fabric.

A central feature of the design is a through-block link connecting Sturt and Dodds Streets, landscaped with native plantings and embedded with universal access ramps.

“The ramp has been thoughtfully integrated as the primary access point, ensuring universal accessibility for all users,” the report noted, with the link offering “a direct response to the urban planning scheme of creating more green spaces within our communities”.

<img alt="Southbank podium" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="4d24b1b2-d69c-4a11-a11d-ec6df432221c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/podium.png?VersionId=geWoJyZDmPSLODZ_.PNJ0LvpOmyyCdpo" />

The building’s podium form responds to the mandatory height limits along Dodds Street and maintains a fine-grain interface to adjoining developments. Above the podium, the tower is articulated with recessed balconies and a focus on views toward the CBD and surrounding arts institutions. A communal rooftop recreation deck and indoor lounge are positioned on level four, adjoining seven apartments and providing over 900 sqm of resident amenity space.

Vehicle access and loading will be provided via Dodds Street, with 155 resident car spaces located across two basement levels and the first three above-ground floors. Bicycle storage is more generous, with 226 spaces distributed across resident, staff and visitor needs.

Rothelowman describes the architecture as “humanist,” with ground-level interfaces designed to encourage social interaction and provide a dignified entry for both residents and passers-by. “All street interfaces are crafted to invite and nurture human connections,” the design report states. “The façade transitions to a human scale, providing an approachable and engaging streetscape”.

Cedar Woods, while well-known for its large communities it develops outside of Australia's capital cities, they have recently developed in Melbourne's inner-ring before. They are approaching completion at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/88-leveson-north-melbourne-88-leveson-street-north-melbourne-vic-3051">88 Leveson</a>, just 15 townhouses in the heart of North Melbourne.

Cedar Woods progresses with new apartment plans in Southbank arts precinct

Brisbane developers Core Property Partners and Vector Property Australia has teamed up for Brisbane's newest apartment development.

The duo identified <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/east-brisbane-qld-4169">East Brisbane</a> as their preferred suburb, on the fringe of the Gabba Precinct, where they've just revealed BANKSII, 72 apartments opposite Raymond Park.

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The one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments will sit in a glass-wrapped building that will also feature a rooftop with an&nbsp;infinity-edge pool, a BBQ area and alfresco dining spaces, sun lounges, and a sauna, as well as a resident-only gym and a ground-floor cafe.

Rhett Williams, Director of Vector Property Australia, said the project will lift the quality of the East Brisbane community and set a new benchmark.

"In Brisbane’s current property landscape, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/banksii-east-brisbane-169-wellington-road-east-brisbane-qld-4169">BANKSII</a> stands out through its emphasis on lifestyle-oriented living, connectivity and sophisticated design," Williams says.

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The 10-level building has been designed by MAS Architecture. Their designs were inspired by the native Banksia flower, with the architecture and interiors reflecting the organic symmetry of its namesake flora. MAS has interpreted this throughout the building’s curved form, façade detailing and interior palette.&nbsp;

The building’s flowing geometry and natural tones are complemented by large balconies and floor-to-ceiling glazing, maximising cross-breezes, daylight and views over the city, parklands and river.

“Having a strong narrative for a building helps us architecturally,” MAS noted. "We can choose colours that come off that species of flowers. The trunk and the trees and the flower elements all are now visible in our joinery on the inside and in our architectural finishes on the outside."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136432 project_image_fid=5485]

Apartments will feature timber floors, soft porcelain tiles, brushed bronze fittings, and stone benchtops with warm veining.&nbsp;

Kitchens feature premium SMEG appliances and generous storage, while bathrooms have been designed as calming retreats with curved cabinetry and twin sinks in the master ensuites.

The building will feature a suite of rooftop and wellness amenities. Residents will have access to an infinity-edge pool, BBQ and alfresco dining areas, sun lounges and a rooftop sauna.&nbsp;

A residents-only gym will be located on the podium level, while a ground-floor café and landscaped laneway will further activate the site and improve neighbourhood connectivity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136432 project_image_fid=5488]

BANKSII will rise from a prime Wellington Road site, with the building oriented to overlook the adjacent Raymond Park and take in extensive city views. It is also on the doorstep of key&nbsp;lifestyle infrastructure, including the future Kangaroo Point Green Bridge, The Gabba stadium, and the planned Brisbane Live arena.&nbsp;

Public transport options, including ferry, bus and rail - including the future Cross River Rail Woolloongabba station - are all nearby, supporting a car-optional lifestyle just minutes from the CBD.

Williams said the team spent over a year searching for the ideal site before securing this location.

"We were attracted to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/east-brisbane-qld-4169">East Brisbane</a> as it is a vibrant and growing community that offers a perfect balance of urban convenience and natural beauty with the parklands and river on our doorstep.”

The project is part of the broader Woolloongabba Games precinct, which is undergoing significant investment in the lead-up to the 2032 Brisbane Olympics. This urban renewal, coupled with infrastructure upgrades, is expected to enhance long-term liveability and capital growth in the area.

Given the wide max of configurations, BANKSII is expected to suit everyone from first home buyers and investors to families and downsizers.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=136432]

BANKSII sales launch in booming East Brisbane apartment market

The Minns Labor Government will deliver Sydney’s first new heavy rail station in more than a decade – enabling up to 10,000 new homes by rezoning land around Woollahra and Edgecliff stations, right next to the CBD, to tackle the housing crisis and rebalance growth across the city.

Recent reports by the NSW Productivity Commission have warned that Sydney is losing twice as many young people as it is gaining, while also finding that Woollahra is the most feasible Local Government Area (LGA) in New South Wales to build new housing.

Despite this, housing approvals in Woollahra consistently lag well behind other LGAs, and the population has declined by 11 per cent over the past 50 years while Greater Sydney as a whole has grown by 74 per cent.

The new station that will be an eight-minute trip from Sydney CBD, will be located on the Eastern Suburbs train line in Woollahra, where a station build was started in the 1970s but never completed.

To enable the delivery of new homes the NSW Government will lead a rezoning of Woollahra and Edgecliff stations similar to other state led rezonings to allow additional homes to be built around the stations.

Affordable housing will also make up a proportion of development on the site with the final amount of affordable housing required, to be determined as part of the rezoning process.

The area surrounding the new station is within walking distance of major green and recreational space including Cooper, Trumper, Rushcutters Bay and Centennial Parks.

The Eastern Suburbs train line between Bondi Junction and Sydney CBD also has the lowest passenger usage rates during the AM peak of any line on the Sydney network, with only 43 per cent of operating capacity during the AM peak currently being utilised by passengers.

Sydney Water and Infrastructure NSW have confirmed there is capacity in the water and wastewater systems to accommodate the proposed 10,000 dwellings without major upgrades.

The rezoning is expected to take around two years and will further support the Government’s housing targets that rebalance the delivery of new homes around existing infrastructure.

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

Next stop Woollahra train station - delivering up to 10,000 new homes in the heart of Sydney

Lockdown

The extended lockdown across greater Sydney could be the catalyst for another Australian recession, according to experts surveyed in this month&rsquo;s Finder RBA Cash Rate Survey.&nbsp;

All 40 experts and economists that weigh&nbsp;in on future cash rate moves and other issues relating to the state of the economy, expect&nbsp;a rate hold for this month.

With greater Sydney set to be in lockdown until at least the end of August, the majority of experts who weighed in* (63%, 19/30) believe that the lockdowns could see Australia enter another recession.&nbsp;

Nearly 2 in 5 (38%, 8/21) of economists think that it could take as little as another two months in lockdown for the recession to hit.&nbsp;

Graham Cooke, head of consumer research at Finder, said all eyes will be on the length of Sydney&rsquo;s lockdown.

Close to half of respondents who responded (43%, 12) think that Australia&rsquo;s response to the pandemic has hurt its international reputation.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7363 project_image_fid=41840]

Uncertainty returns for employment and wage growth&nbsp;

While positivity towards both wage growth and employment surged in July, August saw both of these economic indicators dip significantly.&nbsp;

Cooke said it was no surprise that the latest Covid developments had driven sentiment into the ground.&nbsp;

&ldquo;Last month, we saw positivity towards wage growth spike to its highest point since our survey began. While this has seen a sharp decrease, it&rsquo;s employment that&rsquo;s seen the biggest dip, dropping from 71% in July to 29% in August.&quot;

&ldquo;Positive economic sentiment overall has dropped to 14% in August, down from 28% last month,&rdquo; Cooke added.&nbsp;

All 40 experts and economists surveyed expect a rate hold for this month.

jordan_55689

Experts warn extended Sydney lockdown could lead to another recession: Finder

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GUEST OBSERVATION
The idea of moving to the country has <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-10/post-covid-19-pandemic-simpler-life-migration/12229082">gained momentum</a> through the COVID-19 pandemic. Many workplaces have introduced <a href="https://theconversation.com/with-management-resistance-overcome-working-from-home-may-be-here-to-stay-144850">new policies on working from home</a> that give employees the flexibility needed to make the switch.
Lockdowns have shown many just how cramped and uncomfortable life can be when you cannot escape to the usual activities that get you out of the house. And if everything is closed, what is the point of being in the city and paying a higher rent or mortgage anyway? The Reserve Bank has <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2020/sep/the-rental-market-and-covid-19">noted rents have gone down</a> and vacancy rates have gone up in major cities.
At the same time, some real estate agents have <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-15/australians-seek-regional-affordability-house-prices-coronavirus/12242252">noticed an upturn</a> in interest in renting or buying rural and regional properties. The <a href="https://www.domain.com.au/news/these-are-the-best-performing-property-markets-in-australia-domain-house-price-report-1000315/">demand in some regional areas</a> has pushed up prices by <a href="https://www.domain.com.au/news/where-regional-australian-house-prices-moved-the-most-domain-house-price-report-1000799/">as much as 30%</a> in the year to October. It seems many are already making the switch to country living.
It sounds idyllic. Escape the rat race, have space to grow veggies and let the kids play outside. You won’t have to commute any more, and you might even be able to buy a house in the country at a time when city prices remain out of reach for many. You could be living the dream.
Find a place that matches your values
So how do you know if this is right for you, or a disaster waiting to happen?
In <a href="https://eprints.usq.edu.au/34713/">my research</a> with people who moved to the country, I found successful moves came down to how closely aligned people’s values were with the attributes of the place they moved to. For example, some people value space and quiet more than bustle and activity. If they found these attributes in their new home, then they were able to craft a new life that was deeply satisfying.
When you look through the pages of a glossy magazine such as Country Style, you might find yourself yearning for the lifestyle it depicts – the grassy fields, the peaceful but quirky homes filled with flea-market finds, the home-grown abundance and the happy, contented people. These are long-held and highly regarded values that many hold dear.
The roots of these ideals are deep. Representations of the country as a rural idyll, a place to escape to, are centuries older than our <a href="https://theconversation.com/imagining-your-own-seachange-how-media-inspire-our-great-escapes-105207">current media</a>.
Epicurus (340BC to 270BC) moved from the centre of Athens to the countryside just outside so he could grow vegetables and live simply. Virgil’s (70BC to 19BC) Eclogues emphasised a rural idyll, as did much later painters such as John Constable and Eugene von Guérard. Henry David Thoreau’s Walden (1845) is an oft-quoted classic about an urban dweller moving to a rural place to live a better life (albeit temporarily in his case).
Early Australian writers such as A.B. “Banjo” Paterson and Henry Lawson took up this nostalgic ideal in the fledgling colony. So did artists such as Tom Roberts, Arthur Streeton and Charles Condor when they travelled to then-rural Heidelberg, now part of Melbourne, to paint the uniquely Australian countryside.
More recently, we have seen Peter Mayle’s <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Year_in_Provence">A Year in Provence</a> (1991) sketch a romantic picture of city dwellers moving to rural France. And there are popular television series such as <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Good_Life_(1975_TV_series)">The Good Life</a> (1975-77), <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SeaChange">Seachange</a> (1998-2000, 2019), <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/River_Cottage_Australia">River Cottage Australia</a> (2013-16) and most recently <a href="https://tvtonight.com.au/2020/10/escape-from-the-city-reaches-final-episode">Escape from the City</a>.
Beware the gap between depictions and reality
We know the media are a powerful factor in helping us develop and share our identity and personal narratives. We respond to television shows, books and magazines that we are interested in by becoming their audience. We might share values, goals, ideas or even similar stories with the media we watch. We then, consciously or unconsciously, learn from or adopt those ideas and values in a process of socialisation that shows us how we might live a better life.
Media are only a representation, however. A multitude of factors, not least of which are sales and advertising revenues, go into the process of decision-making as images and stories are crafted for the various outlets. There can be a tendency for media to adopt stereotypes as a shorthand form of communication, but these do not necessarily reflect the reality they purport to depict.
This might seem obvious, but it is all too easy to accept these images as truth when we are inclined towards that viewpoint anyway.
Do you value the things that make a rural place what it is, whether that is peacefulness, an absence of people, vistas of rolling hills, or the community of a small country town? If you do, there’s a good chance a move to the country will enable you to live more closely in line with your values and so be a successful one.
If, on the other hand, you value city-style living, which includes attractions, shops, events and being close to services, you might want to reassess whether a seachange or treechange is right for you.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/rachael-wallis-568028">Rachael Wallis</a>, Lecturer, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-southern-queensland-1069">University of Southern Queensland</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/it-seemed-like-a-good-idea-in-lockdown-but-is-moving-to-the-country-right-for-you-148807">original article</a>.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

It seemed like a good idea in lockdown, but is moving to the country right for you?

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A large majority of Victorians approve of the way Premier Daniel Andrews is handling his job, according to a Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey on Victoria’s Stage 4 restrictions.
However, 76 per cent said the Victorian government should compensate small businesses not forced to close.
The current restrictions will continue until the end of September, with a longer roadmap keeping many businesses closed throughout October.
The survey asked respondents three questions from a pool of six to determine their attitudes towards the current government directives.
According to the results, only 38 per cent of Melbournians say the night-time curfew in Melbourne should end now, compared to only 31 per cent of country Victorians.
Over 80 per cent of respondents who identified with the ALP and Greens parties, supported Andrews’ handling, whilst only 43 per cent of L-NP approving of his leadership.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/Screen%20Shot%202020-09-10%20at%202.11.03%20pm.png" alt="">
L-NP supporters also favoured ending the restrictions, with 51 per cent saying Melbourne restaurants should be able to provide table services.
Only 26 per cent of ALP supporters agreed, preferring to keep restrictions as they are.
The survey was conducted on Tuesday, September 8, with a Victoria-wide cross-section of 2,325 Victorians.
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Majority of Victorians approve of the Premier's handling of his job: Roy Morgan

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Restaurant &amp; Catering Australia welcomed Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews’ announcement that regional Victoria will be able to move to step 3 of the roadmap.
From 11.59PM on Wednesday, September 16, hospitality businesses in regional Victoria were able to serve patrons outdoors, with a cap of 50 seated patrons per venue.
An updated ‘two square metre’ density limit will be put into place.
Under the new guidelines, venues can open with a cap of 10 seated customers per space – with up to two spaces per venue – and in line with the existing ‘four square metre’ density rule.
The announcement was welcome news for regional Victorian businesses, according to R&amp;CA CEO Wes Lambert.
“This is undoubtedly welcome news to the thousands of regional Victorian hospitality businesses who have been under strict lockdowns despite the fact that case numbers have been virtually at zero”, he said.
However, Lambert noted that more is needed to help businesses across Greater Melbourne, who will be subject to strict lockdowns until at least the end of November.
“R&amp;CA will continue to lobby the Andrews Government and the DHHS for indoor dining to be allowed under step 3 rather than outdoor only,” he said.
The industry association believes that allowing limited indoor dining earlier, as has been done for regional Victoria, will save thousands of businesses and jobs across Melbourne. 
R&amp;CA presents the interests of over 45,000 restaurants, cafes and catering businesses in Australia, with the aim of ensuring owners and operators within the hospitality industry remain profitable and sustainable. 
“While support for our sector is welcome, there is only one way to truly support our sector – and that is to get us open sooner”, Lambert said.  
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The hospitality industry welcomes regional Victoria's reopening

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EXPERT OBSERVER
With Melbourne returning to lockdown conditions amidst an acceleration in virus cases, it’s worthwhile looking back at the housing markets performance through the earlier lockdown period. From midnight of July 8th, residents of Melbourne and the Mitchell Shire will be unable to leave their home unless they are shopping for essential items, seeking/giving medical care, exercising or required to study/work away from home. The return to lock down measures comes as the COVID-19 curve accelerates, with the number of new daily cases reaching record highs over the past few days.
Although onsite auctions and open homes aren’t listed specifically as restricted activities on the DHS web site, considering the strict ‘stay at home’ rules, the implication is that the renewed lockdown measures include a ban on-site auctions and open home inspections.
Over the previous lockdown period, which was in place between late March and mid-May, housing market activity was significantly disrupted. The previous lockdown period saw real estate agent activity across Victoria slump by almost 70% before gradually improving post-Easter, with a sharp rise in activity once lockdown policies were eased around mid-May.
The drop in real estate agent activity foreshadowed a sharp drop in new listing numbers across Melbourne. Between mid-March and early-May the number of new listings added to the Melbourne housing market more than halved, to be 34% lower compared wit the same time a year ago.
As restrictions were eased and consumer sentiment recovered to more normal levels, new listing numbers increased and were tracking 18% higher than a year ago through the first week of July. With advertised stock levels falling and a plunge in consumer sentiment, the lockdown period also saw sales activity drop to the lowest level since the early 1990’s (excluding the seasonally slow January months).
CoreLogic’s estimate of home sales dropped by 8.1% in March before plunging by 38.1% in April. As restrictions eased and both sellers and buyers became more confident, the number of home sales has picked up over the past two months to be 59% higher than the April low.
Auction results provided a further signpost of the housing market’s performance through the lock-down period, with Melbourne clearance rates falling to just 20% in early April after consistently tracking around the mid-70% range prior to March 2020.
The drop in clearance rates was influenced by a substantial number of withdrawn auctions, while the large proportion of successful auctions (around 80%) were actually sold before the auction was held signaling a lack of vendor confidence to test the market under the hammer. Since restrictions were lifted, clearance rates have returned to the early 60% range, and the proportion of withdrawn auctions and ‘sold priors’ have normalised.
Melbourne also saw home values starting to trend lower from April, recording a 2.3% drop in dwelling values over the June quarter, which has been the largest decline to-date across the capital cities through the COVID period.
Looking forward, the six-week lockdown period will result in renewed downwards pressure on Victoria’s economy, including a worsening in labour market conditions, especially in those industries such as food and accommodation services and the arts and recreation services, that have proven to be extremely sensitive to strict social distancing measures.
Consumer sentiment readings, which are highly correlated with housing activity, have already been dragged lower due to the acceleration in Victoria’s virus curve, and will likely fall further as consumers react negatively to the economic and social implications of the lockdown along with increased uncertainty.
If the housing market’s performance through the previous lockdown is anything to go by, it’s highly likely that Melbourne property transaction activity will see a sharp drop over the next six weeks, with both a material decline in new listings as vendors lose confidence in testing the market, and a lower number of sales as buyers retreat to the sidelines.
Real estate agents are arguably more prepared to switch towards an online selling environment, however, as we have seen through the previous lockdown period, the negative impacts of weaker confidence and less ability to inspect a property is likely to result in less buying and selling activity. The impact on home values is harder to see.
The downturn in Melbourne home values has been mild to date, and dwelling values were continuing to fall after restrictions were lifted amidst rising market activity.
A return to a shortage of advertised supply should help to insulate home values from material declines, as will persistently low interest rates, ongoing government stimulus and forbearance measures for distressed borrowers which will help to keep urgent sales off the market.
Once the restrictions are lifted in six weeks-time there is likely to be a level of pent-up demand which will see housing activity improve, as it did when previously when social distancing measures were relaxed or lifted.
TIM LAWLESS is the research director for CoreLogic Asia Pacific
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tlawless-5VLUrbAk9s

Impact of the second lockdown on Melbourne’s housing market: Tim Lawless

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Winter may be setting in but lockdown restrictions are continuing to thaw, leading to a rise in auction numbers for this second weekend of June, according to CoreLogic data.
There are 1,179 capital city auctions being tracked by CoreLogic this week, increasing on the 711 auctions last week.
While volumes are expected to be the highest we’ve seen since mid-April, auction activity remains lower than what we would usually see, with 1,505 auctions held over the same week one year ago.
There are 561 Sydney homes scheduled for auction this week, up on the 398 held last week according to final figures, and higher than the 534 held one year ago.
In Melbourne, 467 auctions are scheduled across the city this week, increasing on the 195 auctions last week, however lower than volumes from the same week last year 724.
Across the smaller markets, scheduled volumes are set to remain steady across Perth, while the remaining cities are all expected to see a rise in activity over the week.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/6/9/CL%20June%2011.JPG" alt="">
The Ray White Surry Hills | Alexandria | Glebe | Erskineville office is heading into the weekend with eight homes going under the hammer on-site.
Examining some highlights, Director Ercan Ersan said the converted warehouse apartment at C80/240 Wyndham St, Alexandria in The Hudson has had 100 groups through and 30 contracts given out.
“It’s the epitome of luxury inner city living designed by the celebrated architects at Allen Jack+Cottier,” Mr Ersan said.
“We’re expecting between 10 and 15 registered bidders and it should break the building record.”
Another standout is 4/11-33 Maddison St (pictured in title) in Redfern with Mr Ersan saying the apartment has one of the best renovations he’s seen.
“We’ve already got five people coming to the auction and it should sell at $1.4 million,” he said.
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Soaring Winter auction volumes as lockdown restrictions thaw

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EXPERT OBSERVER
As Australia begins to relax its COVID-19 restrictions there is understandable debate about how quickly that should proceed, and whether lockdowns even made sense in Australia in the first place.
The sceptics arguing for more rapid relaxation of containment measures point to the economic costs of lockdowns and appeal to the cold calculus of <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cost-benefitanalysis.asp" target="_blank">cost-benefit analysis</a> to conclude that the lives saved by lockdowns don’t justify the economic costs incurred to do so.
Their numbers don’t stack up.
To be able to weigh the value of a life against the economic costs of forgone output from lost jobs and business closures, requires placing a dollar value on one person’s life. This number is called the value of a statistical life.
In Australia, the Government generally uses a value of A$<a href="https://www.pmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/publications/Value_of_Statistical_Life_guidance_note.pdf" target="_blank">4.9 million</a>. The United States uses a value of <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-value-of-life/" target="_blank">US$10 million</a>.
What are the benefits of the shutdown? This is the value of lives saved plus any indirect economic or health benefits. Lives saved are those excess lives that would be lost if government relied on a strategy that allowed enough people to get infected to result in so-called <a href="https://www.webmd.com/lung/what-is-herd-immunity#1" target="_blank">herd immunity</a>.
How many extra lives would be lost under this second strategy?
To answer this, we need assumptions about the virus.
<h2>The lives lost if we let it rip</h2>
The <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/world/europe/coronavirus-R0-explainer?referringSource=articleShare" target="_blank">initial reproduction rate</a> of the virus, R0, was thought to be about 2.5. This means that every 2 people infected were likely to infect another 5; producing an average infection rate per person of 2.5.
Herd immunity for COVID-19 is estimated to require roughly 60% of the population be infected before the <a href="https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-flatten-the-curve" target="_blank">curve begins to flatten</a> and the peak infections fall.
This happens when the reproduction rate, R0, falls below one. Because of subsequent new infections, the total number infected over the course of the pandemic is closer to 90%.
Given a population of 25 million people and assuming a fatality rate of 1%, this would produce 225,000 deaths.
An assumption of a 1% fatality rate is low from the perspective of those making decisions at the onset of the pandemic, at a time when crucial and reliable data were missing.
<h2>Those lives are valued at $1.1 trillion</h2>
Converting those fatalities to dollars using the Australian value of a statistical life of A$4.9 million per life yields a cost of A$1.1 trillion.
In rough terms, that’s the amount we have gained by shutting down the economy, provided deaths do not skyrocket when lockdown measures are relaxed and borders re-open.
It is about three fifths of one year’s gross domestic product, which is about A$1.9 trillion.
What are the costs of the shutdown?
These are the direct economic costs from reduced economic activity plus the indirect social, medical, and economic costs, all measured in terms of national income.
A starting point is to take the lost income that occurs from the recession that has probably already begun.
<h2>What will the shutdown cost?</h2>
Let’s assume that the downturn results in a 10% drop in gross domestic product over 2020 and 2021 – about $180 billion – consistent with IMF forecasts of a fall in GDP of 6.7% in 2020 and a sharp rebound of 6.1% growth in 2021, and comparable to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s forecasts in the latest <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2020/may/" target="_blank">Statement on Monetary Policy</a>.
Comparing this cost from shutting down – about $180 billion – to the benefit of $1,103 billion – makes the case for shutdown clear.
But this calculation grossly overestimates the costs of the shutdown.
The recession is a consequence of both the shutdown and the pandemic.
We need to attribute costs to each.
Most of the economic costs of the recession are likely to be due to the pandemic itself rather the shutdown.
<h2>Many costs would have been borne anyway</h2>
Even before the shutdown, economic activity was in decline.
Both in Australia and internationally air travel, restaurant bookings and a range of other activities had fallen sharply.
They were the result of a “private shutdown” that commenced before the mandated government shutdown.
Even in a country such as Sweden, where a shutdown has not been mandatory, there has been a more than 75% reduction in movement in central Stockholm and a more than 90% reduction in travel to some domestic holiday destinations.
To be generous, let’s assume the costs attributable to the government-mandated part of the shutdown are half of the total costs, making their cost A$90 billion.
In reality, they are likely to be less, one important study suggests <a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.04630.pdf" target="_blank">much less</a>.
It is hard to imagine a much bigger private shutdown not taking place had the government decided to simply let the disease rip until its spread was slowed by herd immunity.
<h2>Support is not a cost</h2>
It is also important to note that the government’s spending of A$214 billion to support the economy during the shutdown is a transfer of resources from one part of society to another rather than a cost.
It creates neither direct costs nor benefits for society as a whole, other than the economic distortions coming from raising the revenue to service the spending.
With long-term government bond rates near 1% (less than inflation), the total cost of distortions is likely to be tiny.
Of course, this discussion simplifies what are incredibly complex social, health and economic questions. There are clearly further costs, from both relaxing restrictions and keeping them in place.
<h2>Other costs are not that big</h2>
These costs are worthy of serious study and should rightly be part of a comprehensive public policy discussion. But looked at through the lens of a cost-benefit analysis these combined effects are likely to be small relative to the value of preventing mass death.
Among them are the incidence of mental health problems and domestic violence under lockdowns. They are important concerns that should be addressed by targeted and well-designed programs.
Weighing against that is evidence that economic crises are associated with <a href="https://voxeu.org/article/economic-crises-and-mortality" target="_blank">declines</a> in overall mortality rates. 
While suicides rise, total mortality, including deaths from heart attacks and workplace and traffic accidents, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/04/02/coronavirus-economy-reopen-deaths-balance-analysis-159248" target="_blank">falls</a>.
In the specific case of this pandemic there is <a href="https://psyarxiv.com/3kfmh" target="_blank">survey evidence</a> based on respondents from 58 countries suggesting that strong government responses to the pandemic have been reducing worry and depression.
Also, we have to acknowledge that recessions and educational disruption have health and economic costs that are unequally spread.
The shutdown disproportionately impacts more-disadvantaged people including short-term casual workers, migrant workers, those with disabilities and the homeless.
<h2>The most-disadvantaged suffer, either way</h2>
This skewing will also be present in the herd immunity option. As New York City makes clear, a rapid spread of the disease also disproportionately impacts disadvantaged communities. One can only speculate about the disease burden should some of our remote indigenous communities get exposed.
To this we should add further achievements of the shutdown:
<ul>
<li>
elimination of mental trauma and grief from losing our loved ones
</li>
<li>
avoiding the costs of possible longer-term implications of the disease, which we still know little about
</li>
<li>
avoiding a collapse in the capacity of the health system to deal with other emergencies through the sheer numbers of COVID-19 infected combined with staff shortages due to illness
</li>
</ul>
Those advocating cost-benefit analysis of this kind have to apply the principle systematically. It is difficult to see how the total of these sorts of considerations on each side of the ledger could compare to the benefit of lives saved. They will be an order of magnitude, if not two, smaller.
<h2>$90 billion, versus $1.1 trillion</h2>
In the cold calculus of cost-benefit analysis, a highly pessimistic view of the economic costs of Australia’s shutdown comes to around $90 billion.
It is a small price to pay compared to the statistical value of lives the shutdown should save, around A$1.1 trillion.
It produces a simple message. The shutdown wins.
The question we now face is how quickly to relax restrictions. Here, too, there are costs and benefits, and we need to be mindful of the economic cost of a second-wave outbreak, plus mortality costs of disease spread before effective treatments or vaccine become available.
And in all of this bean counting, we should remember that putting a price tag on human life is sometimes unavoidable – such as when a doctor with access to only one ventilator has to choose between two patients.
But we shouldn’t mistake necessity for desirability. We should seek to avoid needing to make such wrenching choices whenever possible.
Dr Jen Schaefer of the Royal Children’s Hospital Melbourne assisted with the preparation of this piece.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/138303/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-holden-118107" target="_blank">Richard Holden</a>, Professor of Economics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414" target="_blank">UNSW</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/bruce-preston-452859" target="_blank">Bruce Preston</a>, Professor of Economics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-melbourne-722" target="_blank">University of Melbourne</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-costs-of-the-shutdown-are-overestimated-theyre-outweighed-by-its-1-trillion-benefit-138303" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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