Not all apartment amenities are immediately visible.

Swimming pools, gyms, rooftop terraces and residents' lounges have long featured on buyers' wishlists, but as the way Australians live has changed, so too have the features that make apartment living more convenient.

Increasingly, buyers are placing value on the practical aspects of day-to-day life. Fast internet, EV charging, secure bike storage, flexible workspaces and parcel management are becoming just as relevant as lifestyle amenities, reflecting changing habits and expectations.

Online shopping has been one of the biggest drivers of that shift.

Australians spent a record $82.6 billion shopping online in 2025, with almost one in every four retail dollars now spent digitally, making parcel deliveries a routine part of everyday life rather than an occasional convenience.

For apartment residents, however, receiving those deliveries isn't always straightforward.

Without someone home to accept a parcel, deliveries can be redirected to a nearby Post Office, left in building foyers or common areas, or require building management to temporarily store packages. As apartment living continues to grow across Australia's cities, parcel management has become an increasingly important consideration for both residents and developers.

Australia Post's Parcel Locker network is one response to that shift.

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/KPZ9j5FRdsQ?si=Qztc1dNP3ZvEIUhb" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>

Rather than relying on home delivery, eligible parcels can be directed to a nominated Parcel Locker, where they're securely stored until collected. Once a parcel arrives, residents receive a notification through the AusPost app or SMS and can retrieve it using a one-time code or QR code at a time that suits them.

The network has expanded to more than 1,500 locations nationwide, with Parcel Lockers positioned at Post Offices, shopping centres, supermarkets, transport hubs and, increasingly, within or alongside residential developments.

That growing presence reflects a broader change in how apartment buildings are being planned.

Developers are increasingly considering the operational side of apartment living alongside traditional lifestyle amenities. Just as secure mailrooms, bicycle storage and EV charging have become more common inclusions, parcel management is emerging as another feature that supports everyday convenience.

It also helps preserve the arrival experience within a building. Carefully designed lobbies and communal spaces can quickly become cluttered when deliveries accumulate, while secure parcel solutions reduce the likelihood of missed deliveries or parcels being left unattended.

For buyers comparing apartments, these everyday details are becoming part of the decision-making process.

Location, floorplans and finishes remain fundamental, but the features that simplify daily life are carrying greater weight than they once did. As online shopping continues to shape consumer behaviour, secure parcel delivery is increasingly becoming another amenity worth looking for.

Joel Robinson

Parcel delivery is joining the apartment amenity checklist

Inca Property Group has lodged a State Significant Development Application (SSDA) for Dawn, a 53-apartment oceanfront development overlooking Mona Vale Beach.

The proposal, at 35-39 Darley Street East, would replace an existing 18-apartment strata building with a new owner-occupier-focused development comprising 53 two and three-bedroom apartments, including nine affordable built-to-rent residences delivered under the State's infill affordable housing scheme.

Positioned on a 2,679 sqm elevated site around 280 metres from Mona Vale Beach, the development has been designed to maximise panoramic ocean views while responding to the site's sloping topography.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/inca-property-group">Inca Property Group</a> Managing Director Josh Thompson said the State Significant pathway provided greater certainty for projects of this scale.

"This State Significant pathway gives the team real certainty to progress <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/dawn-35-39-darley-street-east-mona-vale-nsw-2103">Dawn</a> through to completion," Thompson said.

"It allows us to acquire a one-off site, design it carefully and deliver the right offering for the suburb, assessed by the NSW Government's planning department."

The project is one of the first developments in the area to be assessed under the NSW Government's Low and Mid-Rise Housing policy, with the site sitting on the edge of the policy's designated inner area.

The proposal includes three basement levels providing 124 car spaces, alongside a range of resident amenities including a swimming pool, gym, sauna, wellness facilities and private plunge pools for selected ground-floor and penthouse apartments.

<img alt="Dawn" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="fc1a1daf-0ce4-4f12-9076-b1fa553c7a91" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-21%20at%208.42.11%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=4GZ9h.gpNkTljbxyAET8Jfhv51XUamDm" />

Thompson said Dawn had been designed specifically for owner-occupiers and downsizers, a buyer profile that has driven demand across Inca's recent Upper North Shore developments.

"The majority of buyers in our recent North Shore projects have been downsizers, and we are learning exactly what this market is looking for. Beyond the location itself, we have included resort-style amenities to deliver a genuine lifestyle offering," Thompson said.

Located within walking distance of Mona Vale Beach, the town centre, Mona Vale Golf Club and the Royal Motor Yacht Club, Dawn represents Inca's first Northern Beaches project following the sell-out of Tara on Park in Waitara and Ellis Residences, currently under construction in St Ives.

Construction will be undertaken by Inca's in-house construction arm, GOP Constructions.

Dawn is the latest major apartment proposal for Mona Vale, with the suburb emerging as one of the key beneficiaries of the NSW Government's new Low and Mid-Rise Housing policy.

New developer One Living, led by industry veteran Joseph Scuderi, recently secured a site on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, where it is planning around 140 apartments.

IPM is also planning its third project in Mona Vale, significantly increasing the scale of its previous developments with an 82-apartment proposal at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/159-167-darley-street-west-mona-vale-nsw-2103">159-167 Darley Street West</a>, opposite Bayview Golf Course and less than 800 metres from Mona Vale town centre.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/one-living-enters-sydneys-new-apartment-market-with-northern-beaches-site-acquisition">One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition</a>

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-ipm-plans-third-mona-vale-project">First look: IPM plans third Mona Vale project</a>

First look: Inca eyes Mona Vale with State Significant DA for Dawn apartments

Seasoned Victorian apartment developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/central-equity">Central Equity</a> has logged more than $400 million in sales in its luxury apartment project Palmera Residences at Northcliffe on the Gold Coast.&nbsp;

Central Equity Director Karl Kutner said the sales result reflected a combination of location, product quality and delivery certainty with the project already under construction by building powerhouse Multiplex.&nbsp;

"Surpassing $400 million in sales since launch is a significant milestone and an outstanding endorsement of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/palmera-residences-gold-coast-18-garfield-terrace-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Palmera Residences</a>,” he said.&nbsp;

"We believe one of the key reasons for this strong result is the confidence purchasers have in knowing the project is under construction with Multiplex. Buyers are increasingly looking for certainty. They want to know that the project they commit to today will be delivered by an experienced team with a proven track record."&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365782]

Kutner said it was clear there was still high demand for luxury projects that offered certainty of delivery.&nbsp;

“We are in a market where many residential developments have faced delays due to rising construction costs, labour shortages and financing challenges,” said Kutner.&nbsp;

"But having construction underway has provided our buyers with resounding confidence backed by more than 40 years of development delivery by Central Equity combined with construction by one of Australia's most respected construction companies."&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365785]

Central Equity is one of Australia's most experienced privately-owned property developers. Over more than four decades, the company has delivered in excess of 85 residential developments including 10,000 apartments and many thousands of stand alone homes.&nbsp;

Located on Garfield Terrace at Northcliffe, between Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach, Palmera Residences occupies one of the Gold Coast's most sought after beachside locations. The development has been designed to appeal to owner occupiers seeking premium residences that combine generous living spaces and resort style amenities.&nbsp;

Palmera Residences will feature an exceptional collection of resort style amenities, including two swimming pools: a generously sized family pool with safe shallow zones for relaxed recreation, and a 20 metre lap pool positioned to maximise all day sunlight.&nbsp;

Residents will also enjoy exclusive access to wellness and recreational facilities including a magnesium pool, sauna, yoga studio, expansive fitted gymnasium, resident lounge, outdoor BBQ’s&nbsp;and indoor and outdoor dining areas, together with a dedicated concierge and luxurious hotel inspired entrance foyer.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365767]

A unique feature at Palmera Residences has been designed to enhance the Gold Coast lifestyle which includes both indoor and outdoor gymnasium facilities, together with thoughtfully designed indoor and outdoor dining and entertaining areas. A corner café has also been incorporated to provide residents with a destination for their everyday needs.&nbsp;

Kutner said buyer demand had been broad based with purchasers attracted from interstate as well as throughout South East Queensland.&nbsp;

"We're seeing strong interest from owner occupiers, lifestyle buyers and people relocating to the Gold Coast. Many purchasers have been searching for a premium beachside residence where quality, design and delivery are equally important."&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365771]

Kutner said the sales milestone was an important achievement, but the focus remained firmly on delivering an exceptional development.&nbsp;

"While reaching $400 million in sales is an important milestone, our priority remains delivering a project that exceeds purchaser expectations,” he said.&nbsp;

"Palmera Residences has been designed to become one of the Gold Coast's landmark residential addresses, and we look forward to welcoming our purchasers to their new homes."&nbsp;

There are a limited number of residences remaining in selected configurations with pricing from $2,950,000 to $8,950,000. Palmera Residences is also crowned by expansive penthouses with wrap around views.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=108274]

Construction certainty and strong buyer demand drive major sales result for luxury Gold Coast development

Palmera Residences fly out the door as sales pass $400 million

National property developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/goldfields-group">Goldfields</a> has appointed BINAH as its construction partner for Quartet, its new Brisbane apartment development in the undersupplied suburb of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/milton-qld-4064">Milton</a>.

Located just two kilometres from the Brisbane CBD and moments from key 2032 Olympic precincts, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/quartet-milton-33-manning-street-milton-qld-4064">Quartet</a> will deliver 131 one, two, three, and four-bedroom apartments priced from $1 million to $4.2 million, combining elevated design with a wellness-focused lifestyle offering.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108736 project_image_fid=368000]

Goldfields’ Chief Executive Officer, Lachlan Thompson, said the appointment of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/binah-constructions">BINAH</a> marked an important milestone for the project.&nbsp;

“Bringing BINAH on board as our construction partner will allow us to bring our vision for Quartet forward with a team that has a proven track record of delivering high-quality residential projects,” Thompson said.&nbsp;

“We’ve taken a considered approach to progressing the site because we wanted to deliver the whole package. Buyers ultimately back great developers, great projects and great builders, and with Quartet, we’ve made sure all three line up.

“People want certainty, they want to know the project will be built, that the homes will be delivered as promised, and that the developer stands behind the quality of what they create. That’s something Goldfields has built its reputation on over many years.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108736 project_image_fid=367993]

BINAH’s Managing Director, Khalil Hafza, said the company was proud to be partnering with Goldfields to deliver Quartet.&nbsp;

“Quartet is an exciting project to bring to life, particularly given the level of detail in the residences and the extensive rooftop amenity planned for the building,” Mr Hafza said.&nbsp;

“Our focus is on delivering a high-quality build that brings that design vision to life and creates homes residents will enjoy for many years.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108736 project_image_fid=367999]

The facilities at Quartet have been feared towards the roof, with a&nbsp;25 metre lap pool, spa, sauna and cold plunge, and a communal barbecue area and alfresco.

Town planning was designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a> and brought to life by Melbourne-based architecture firm Cera Stribley.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/cera-stribley">Cera Stribley</a> Co-Founder and Managing Principal, Dom Cerantonio, said the project responds to both its riverside setting and Brisbane’s evolving urban character.&nbsp;

“Quartet has been designed to sit comfortably within its riverside context, offering a refined take on urban living through well-planned, generously proportioned residences that will stand the test of time,” Mr Cerantonio said.&nbsp;

“An emphasis on natural light, natural textures and carefully selected finishes from timber and marble to premium appliances, creates calm, considered interiors designed for comfort and long-term liveability.”&nbsp;

Construction of Quartet will commence in July 2026, with completion anticipated in Q4 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=108736]

Construction to commence on 131-residence tower designed around wellness-focused living

Goldfields appoints BINAH for Quartet apartments in Milton

The first partnership between national developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/fortis">Fortis</a> and Adelaide-based developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/otello">Otello</a> has made a strong start, with the pair securing $21 million in unconditional sales at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/one-four-four-hutt-adelaide-144-hutt-street-adelaide-sa-5000">One Four Four Hutt</a>&nbsp;on the edge of the Adelaide CBD.

Over a third of apartments have been snapped up in the boutique 44-apartment project on the corner of Hutt Stret and Wakefield Road. Local downsizers and owner-occupiers wanting to remain in Adelaide's tightly-held southeast quarter have been the most prominent purchasers.

The DKO-designed, mixed-use development is one of the few new apartment projects in the precinct, an area where new housing supply has remained limited despite continued demand from buyers wanting to stay close to the CBD, Victoria Park and Adelaide's established east-end amenities.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151233 project_image_fid=375378]

Fortis Head of Development SA Arthur Dendrinos said the early sales reflected both the strength of the local owner-occupier market and confidence in the Hutt Street location.

"The level of early commitment reflects the confidence local buyers have in the Hutt Street precinct," Dendrinos said.

"Many purchasers are long-term east-end residents who love the area and want to stay connected to the neighbourhood. They recognise the value of a well-designed, well-located development.

"Our partnership with Otello has been central to this success, and the number of unconditional sales at this stage only strengthens our confidence in the South Australian market."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151233 project_image_fid=375379]

Otello Director Daniel Harris said the sales result also highlighted the lack of new apartment opportunities within the Hutt Street precinct.

"One Four Four Hutt has clearly resonated with buyers, with strong early sales reflecting both the appeal of the Hutt Street corridor and the lifestyle on offer," Harris said.

"The activated ground-floor retail has also been a key drawcard, with purchasers responding to the vision of a more vibrant and connected streetscape, not just the residences themselves."

One Four Four Hutt will deliver 44 one, two and three-bedroom apartments, alongside a collection of penthouses, above a ground-floor retail offering designed to further activate the Hutt Street precinct.

Construction is scheduled to commence in the third quarter of this year, with completion anticipated in 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=151233]

Fortis Head of Development SA Arthur Dendrinos said the early sales reflected both the strength of the local owner-occupier market and confidence in the Hutt Street location.

Fortis makes Adelaide debut with Otello as One Four Four Hutt records strong early sales

Justin Smirk

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The June quarter has brought a very modest lift in wage inflation.
In the quarter the Wage Price Index (WPI) lifted 0.6% vs market expectation for a 0.5% rise and up slightly from the 0.5% rise in the March quarter. This held the annual rate flat at 2.3%yr which is a modest lift from the low of 1.9% in 2017 but can hardly be described as a breakneck pace.
We still expect wage inflation to drift higher from here - our forecasts have it peaking around 2¾%yr in 2020 - but given how well contained wage inflation is across the nation, and between sectors, even this modest increase looks optimistic and the risks to this forecast remain more to the downside than upside.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/14/wage%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/14/wage%201.jpg" alt="">
In the March quarter, total hourly wages ex bonuses rose 0.6% compared to a market median (and Westpac) expectation for 0.5%.
The print was 0.61% at two decimal places with a 0.54% rise in private sector wage rates and a very solid 0.82% rise in public sector wages, the largest quarterly rise in public sector wages since Q1 2014.
But it should be noted that this followed the smallest quarterly rise in public sector wages since March 2000 of 0.45% rise in the last quarter highlighting a bit more volatility in this series than what is normally the case. It appears that state governments have released the purse strings, a little, for wages.
In the quarter, the largest increase in public sector wages was in Victoria (1.5%) with a more average rise in Queensland (0.5%) and a below average rise in NSW (0.2%).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/14/wage%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/14/wage%202.jpg" alt="">
Private sector wages printed 0.54% in the last two quarters. The annual pace eased back to 2.3% from 2.4% as the March 2018 quarter print of 0.55%, the fastest pace since December 2014, dropped out of the equation.
Public sector wage inflation lifted a little to 2.6% from 2.4% over the year to be back on par with the recent peak of 2.6% in September 2018.
So while an annual pace of wages growth of 2.3% is a modest lift from the 2.1% held from December 2017 to September 2018 which, in itself, was an improvement from the record low of 1.9% in the four quarters before 2017 Q3, it does not suggest any reason to suspect a “wages breakout” is hiding in the wings as wage inflation is well contained and remains under the historical average.
Since 2018, Westpac watched the rapid fall in the Victorian unemployment rate, and because of this, we have been looking an acceleration in Victorian wage inflation.
In the June quarter, Victorian wages lifted 0.7%, stronger than the 0.5% gain in March but a moderation from the 0.8% gain in both Q3 and Q4 of 2018.
The annual pace of Victorian wage inflation has lifted to 2.9% - the fastest pace by any state and the fastest pace in that state since September 2013.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/14/wage%203.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/14/wage%203.jpg" alt="">
Contrast that with NSW, where wage inflation was flat at 2.3%yr. Here there has been a longer history of a tighter labour market and yet it has failed to generate wage inflation as it has in Victoria.
We are closely watching how far the lift in Victorian wages extends. If it continues into 2020, it should lead to modest wages pressures in other states (particularly in NSW) as employers start competing for labour.
But we would not overstate this as we expect the overall impact to be modest given that the improvement in the national labour market, as measured by the fall in underutilisation, has not been as significant as it is has been in Victoria.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/14/wage%204.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/14/wage%204.jpg" alt="">
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/14/wage%205.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/14/wage%205.jpg" alt="">
Private sector wages including bonuses continues to run at a faster pace than the measure excluding bonuses (2.4%yr vs 2.3%yr respectively) but the pace has slowed from a recent peak of 2.7% in Q4 2018.
The faster pace growth of growth in variable compensation, which tends to be positively correlated with the economic cycle, was pointing to some upside risk for wages.
However, as the pace of economic activity slows, this modest pressure is easing, suggesting the pressure on variable compensation is unlikely to be transferred to fixed compensation.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/14/wage%206.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/14/wage%206.jpg" alt="">
By industry, the fastest gains in wages are still in what we consider to be non-cyclical sectors such as heath care (3.3%yr), arts &amp; recreation (2.8%yr), public administration (2.5%yr), education &amp; training, other services and professional &amp; scientific (last three all on 2.4%yr).
The slowest wage growth remains in the cyclical industries such as wholesale trade (1.7%yr), retail trade and construction (both 1.9%yr) with manufacturing at just 2.0%yr.
Even in mining, where there is talk of a modest recovery in investment and talk of emerging shortages of skilled labour, wages are growing just 2.2%yr.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/14/wage%207.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/14/wage%207.jpg" alt="">
Overall, today’s WPI print is a disappointing update and one that will make us take a closer look at our forecast for wage inflation to get back to around 2¾%yr in 2020.
Click here to see the <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2019/August/Q2Wages-FI.pdf" target="_blank">full chart pack</a>.
JUSTIN SMIRK is ‎a senior economist for Westpac,
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Wage inflation modest, but upside surprise does not change weak fundamentals: Justin Smirk 

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
A robust update but participation hit a new record high at the same time. So while the employment growth continues to outperform expectations the unemployment rate is very sticky around 5.2%.  As such, it is hard to see unemployment getting below 5% any time soon, let alone getting down the RBA’s natural rate of 4.5%.
Westpac is forecasting the unemployment rate to rise from here on the back of a soft patch in employment.
In the past year the largest share of employment gains have been for full-time females, male full-time employment has grown slower than total employment, suggesting employment gains remain focused in the services industries that are rich in female employment.
This update gives us comfort that the RBA will opt to wait-and-see at the September Board meeting and leave the cash rate unchanged.
The July Labour Force Survey reported a 41.1k gain in employment. As we head into the second half of the year, employment remains quite robust with a three month average gain of 28k in July, unchanged from June and slightly down from 35k in May.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/15/westpac%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
 <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/15/westpac%201.jpg" alt="">
The May survey reported a strong +45.2k gain in employment with participation surging to a new record high of 66.1%, boosting the labour force and therefore holding unemployment flat at 5.2% despite the strong gain in employment. 
Since then, while the month to month employment gains have been volatile, the trend remains robust and unemployment has been flat at 5.2%.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/15/westpac%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/15/westpac%202.jpg" alt=""> 
In the year to July, employment has grown 333k or 2.6%. The pace of employment growth has eased back from 2.9%yr in May but it is still stronger than the 2.2%yr at the end of 2018, while the six month annualised pace has was flat at 2.4%yr. 
Our Jobs Index suggests employment should be growing around 2.4%yr currently before slowing to 2.1%yr through Q4.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/15/westpac%203.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: 
 <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/15/westpac%203.jpg" alt="">
We think it is worth noting that June employment was revised to –2.3k from +0.5k with June now recording the first negative print on employment in three years. 
In July, unemployment was flat at 5.2% (5.23% at two decimal places - it was 5.24% in June) with participation rising to a new record high of 66.1% (66.06% at two decimal places from 65.96% in June) the labour force grew a very solid 41.9k.
We had expected that a soft employment print would have been associated with a moderation in participation so we are not surprised that a robust employment gain is matched by a lift in participation.
Today’s update is further confirmation of a robust upward trend in participation, but there was a shift on which state is in the driving seat.
NSW hit a record high of participation of 66.2% in May and has since eased back a bit as has Victoria, which leaves Qld supporting the more recent gains in participation.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/15/westpac%204.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge:
 <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/15/westpac%204.jpg" alt="">
In June we were surprised by the drop in underemployment (those employed who are willing and able to work more hours) which fell 0.4ppts to 8.2%. 
Underemployment did not improve as much as unemployment through 2018 and had recently been trending higher compared to the unemployment rate. But in July, underemployment bumped back up to 8.4%, still down on the 8.6% in May but it did help to lock in a stronger trend.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/15/westpac%205.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
 <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/15/westpac%205.jpg" alt="">
Underemployment lifted in both NSW and Victoria (from 7.5% to 7.9% and 7.9% to 8.5% respectively) while it fell in Queensland and WA (from 8.6% to 8.5% and 9.6% to 9.4% respectively).
We note how high underemployment is in Victoria compared to unemployment — unemployment is well below the national average (4.8% vs. 5.2% nationally) whereas the underemployment rate of 8.5% is higher than the national average of 8.2%.
In the last year to July, the gains in employment have mostly been full-time (255.6k/3.0%yr) and with females gaining slightly more than males (153.8k/4.9%yr for females, 101.8k/1.9%yr for males).
The mix is interesting as female full-time employment has lifted 153.8k (4.9%yr) in the year while male fulltime rose 101.8k (1.9%yr).
In contrast male part-time employment has lifted 59.2k in the year (4.8%) while female part-time grew just 17.8k (0.6%yr).
It does appear that employment gains continued to be focused in the services sectors that are rich in female full-time employment positions.  
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/15/westpac%206.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: 
 <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/15/westpac%206.jpg" alt="">
Employment growth has held together and has been quite robust so far in 2019 with the July update suggesting the pace of growth may be picking up — somewhat unexpectedly given the softening leading indicators.
Unemployment is flat around 5.2% but underemployment is drifting higher as the employment to population ratio has held around 62.5% to 62.6% since April highlighting that the gains in employment have only been pacing the gains in working age population.
In the year to July, employment has grown 161.4/4.0%yr in NSW compared to 97.8k/3.0%yr gain in Victoria. Employment grew more modestly in Queensland (57.8k/2.3%yr) and just 6.9k/0.8%yr in SA and slight better in WA with 19.5k/1.5%yr in WA.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/15/westpac%207.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: 
 <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/15/westpac%207.jpg" alt="">
Since December the unemployment rate has risen 0.1ppt in NSW to 4.4% (the national low), +0.6ppt in Victoria to 4.8% with a smaller 0.3ppt in Queensland at 6.4% but a solid 0.9ppt lift in SA to 6.9%, the highest unemployment rate in Australia.
The only state to record a decline in unemployment from December is WA where it fell –0.4ppt to 5.9% which is still above the national average.
For complete chart pack <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2019/August/JulyLabour-FI_chart_pack.pdf" target="_blank">July Labour Force Chart Pack (pdf 334kb)</a>
JUSTIN SMIRK is ‎a senior economist for Westpac
 
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Labour force data will leave the RBA on the sidelines next month: Justin Smirk

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<div class="column">The CPI was 0.6% in the June quarter compared to the market median (and Westpac’s) forecast for 0.5%. The annual rate lifted to 1.6% from 1.3%.</div>
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<div class="column">The average of the core measures, which are seasonally adjusted and exclude extreme moves, rose 0.4% in the June quarter/1.4% over the year. In the quarter, the trimmed mean gained 0.42% while the weighted median lifted 0.37%.</div>
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 Incorporating revisions, the six month annualised growth in core inflation was flat at 1.3% over the year well below the bottom of the RBA target band and the slowest pace since March 1999.</div>
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 Standouts in the quarter were: on the positive or high side of expectations, clothing &amp; footwear which suggests we are starting see some impact from the AUD depreciation, stronger transports cost which was not just due to a jump in fuel prices but also a surprising 1.4% bump in automotive prices while the seasonal fall in pharmaceuticals was smaller than the historical norm.</div>
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<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/1/CPI.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: </div>
<div class="column"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/1/CPI.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="column">Source: Westpac</div>
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 Prices that fell or where on the low side of expectations – tobacco prices surprised with a fall, housing was flat on falling house purchases and utilities, household contents fell more than expected while health rose less than expected and recreation fell more than expected.</div>
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 Food prices fell as expected, with falling fruit &amp; vegetable prices more than offsetting rising prices elsewhere. For now, the impact of the drought has been limited but we are watching this space closely as it extends in length and depth.</div>
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 It is worth noting the lack of inflationary pulse in housing. Overall housing costs fell a little more than expected as falling dwelling prices combined with falling electricity prices and flat rents. This moderation in housing costs is central to our outlook for low non- tradable and core inflation.</div>
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 In nine of the ten quarters to the 2019 Q1, inflation forecasters overestimated the quarterly rise in the CPI by 0.12ppts. Including Q2 analysts’ have now underestimated the quarterly print for the CPI in two quarters of the last three quarters. This suggests that the disinflationary pulse may be fading, if not coming to an end.</div>
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<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/1/CPI%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:</div>
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<div class="column">Source: Westpac</div>
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 There are still some embryonic indicators that retail, in particularly clothing &amp; footwear, furniture &amp; appliances as well as motor vehicles, are turning modestly inflationary due to the AUD depreciation.</div>
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 However, housing has a significant weight in the CPI (22%) so it has a meaningful impact on both headline and core inflation. As such, it is hard to find any near- term risk of a meaningful acceleration in inflation.</div>
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 Our preliminary estimate for Q3 CPI is 0.4% in the quarter/1.6% over the year for headline and 0.3% in the quarter/1.5% over the year for the trimmed mean.</div>
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Waiting for Godot has ended its long run
In the December quarter 2018, for the first time in two year the quarterly rise in the CPI exceeded market expectations. However, the first quarter of 2019 saw a return of a disinflationary pulse with the CPI print coming in under expectations with a flat print. 
Then it was reversed again in the June quarter with the CPI rising 0.6% vs. a median expectation for 0.5%.
 Including Q2 analysts’ have now underestimated the quarterly print for the CPI in two quarters of the last three quarters. This suggests that the disinflationary pulse may be fading, if not coming to an end.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/1/contributions.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/1/contributions.jpg" alt="">
 
ABS confirms June quarter negative seasonality
As noted in our preview the June quarter 2019 was expected to be a seasonally soft quarter. 
However, on the estimates from the March quarter the estimated seasonal adjustment was +0.2ppt. 
In the June quarter release the seasonally adjusted CPI rose 0.7% so the seasonal adjustment factor was a smaller 0.1ppt. 
Revisions to the seasonal factors are a regular occurrence with the ABS conducting concurrent seasonal reanalysis.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/1/seasonality.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/1/seasonality.jpg" alt="">
For core inflation, the trimmed mean lifted 0.4% in the quarter
The average of the core measures, which are seasonally adjusted and exclude extreme moves, rose 0.4% in the June quarter. 
In the quarter, the trimmed mean gained 0.28%/1.6%yr while the weighted median lifted 0.37%/1.2%yr. 
The annual pace of the average of the core measures printed 1.4%, a very modest deceleration from the 1.5% pace in the March quarter.
Incorporating revisions, the six month annualised growth in core inflation was flat at 1.2% over the year, holding well below the bottom of the RBA target band and the slowest pace of core inflation since March 1999.
For a broader core inflation measure, more in line with some international measures, market sector goods and services excluding volatile items rose 0.5% in the quarter with the annual pace lifting to 1.8% from 1.6%.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/1/core%20inflation.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/1/core%20inflation.jpg" alt="">
We are yet to see the full inflationary impact of the drought
Food prices came as expected at 0.4% decline. Fruit &amp; vegetables fell slightly more than expected (2.8% vs 2.1%). 
Alcohol &amp; tobacco was slightly stronger (1.1% vs. 1.0%) with tobacco having a robust 2.4% rise following a surprising 0.7% in Q1.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/1/durables.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/1/durables.jpg" alt="">
 
A surprising bump up in car prices
Transportation rose 3.4% vs. 2.9% expected as car prices lifted 1.4% vs. our expectation for a 1.0% fall. 
Car prices are now up 3.4%yr, the fastest pace of growth since June 2020 and another sector we would expect to see the impact of the weaker AUD. 
However, the rise in car prices is more than what you would expect given the weakness of the AUD in either TWI terms or against the Japanese Yen.
Clothing has a larger than expected bump highlighting AUD pass-through...
Clothing &amp; footwear was stronger than expected rising 1.6% vs. our 0.5% expected. We are now seeing some pass through of the weaker AUD but the impact has not been uniform across this sector. 
Male garments are up 4.8% over the year while garments for women are down 0.2%. Footwear is down 1.1% over the year while accessories are down 1.0%.
...as does the rise in household contents &amp; services.
An area where the downside pressure on prices has been significant was household contents &amp; services. 
In the June quarter they rose 0.7% vs. our expectation for a 0.5%. There has been a turnaround in the trade exposed components with furniture prices up 2.8% over the year and household appliances up 5.1%.
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However, it is not all one way with textiles down 0.5% over the year and glassware down 4.1%. All up household furnishings are down just 0.4%, the softest deflationary pace since March 2018.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/1/inflaction%20pressure.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/1/inflaction%20pressure.jpg" alt="">
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Housing reveals signs of the housing correction in Vic and Qld, not so strong in NSW
The slightly softer than expected housing print reflected the fall in dwelling prices (0.2% vs. our forecast for a flat print – this reflected a further fall in Victorian dwelling prices of 0.4% in the quarter,  a larger 0.6% fall in Brisbane and a more modest 0.1% fall in NSW).
Rents were flat as expected while utilities fell more than expected (1.0% vs. 0.4% forecast) due to a 1.7% fall in electricity prices.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/1/dwelling.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/1/dwelling.jpg" alt="">
There remains a significant near term negative risk around dwelling purchases prices in NSW.
 Prices are already falling in Victoria while rents have flattened in NSW. Given that rents and dwelling purchases together are worth around 15% of the CPI, this is a significant risk for headline inflation, and even more so for the core measures where the weight is somewhat higher.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/1/narrow%20turnaround.png" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/8/1/narrow%20turnaround.png" alt="">
Tradables stronger while non-tradables had a modest rise
Tradables rose 1.2% in the June quarter. Tradable goods rose 1.2% due to automotive fuel (10.2%). Tradable services rose 2.5% due to international holiday, travel and accommodation (2.7%).
Non-tradables rose 0.2% in the June quarter. Non-tradable goods rose 0.2% due to tobacco (2.4%). Non-tradable services rose 0.3% due to medical and hospital services (2.6%).
Looking forward inflation holds below the band
There are signs that we are getting some AUD deprecation pass-through to inflation in clothing &amp; footwear (for some selected groups) and in automotive vehicles. But it is harder to find any broader impact or wider inflationary pulse.
As housing has a significant group weighting in the CPI (22%) it has a meaningful impact on estimates of both headline and core inflation. As such, with core inflation below the bottom of the RBA’s target band we can find little to suggest any risk of a meaningful acceleration.
With crude oil prices easing there has been a turnaround in fuel prices which are expected to be a drag in Q3. Our preliminary estimate for the June quarter 2019 CPI is 0.4% which would see the annual pace steady at 1.6%.
Our preliminary estimate for the trimmed mean in the September quarter CPI is 0.3% seeing the annual pace ease a touch to 1.5%.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/1/inflaction%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
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Justin Smirk is ‎senior economist, Westpac Group and can be contacted <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/about-westpac/westpac-group/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Q2 CPI: Some AUD pass-through but housing is the anchor on inflation - Justin Smirk

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EXPERT OBSERVER
An expected soft update but a robust trend in participation is making it very hard to see unemployment getting below 5% any time soon, let alone getting down the RBA’s natural rate of 4.5%. Westpac is forecasting the unemployment rate to rise from here.
The June Labour Force Survey reported a 500 gain in employment. So far this year employment has been quite robust with a three month average gain of 29.2k in June from 35.8k in May and 24.45k in April.
The trend in employment remains on par with the three month average gain of 31.2k in January.
The May survey reported a strong 45.3k gain in employment (revised from 42.3k) with participation surging to a new record high of 66.0% boosting the labour force and lifting unemployment to 5.2%.
As such, we had thought there was a high risk of a statistical correction this month which is why we forecast a modest 10k rise in employment. The market median was 9k.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/7/18/unemployment%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/18/unemployment%201.jpg" alt="">
 
In the year to June, employment has grown 296.3k or 2.4%.
The pace of employment growth has eased back from 2.9% in May but it is still stronger than the 2.2% at the end of 2018.
Our Jobs Index suggests employment should be growing around 2.4%yr currently before slowing to 2.1% through Q4.
In June, unemployment was flat at 5.2% (5.24% at two decimal places so just a whisker from 5.3% - it was 5.19% in May) and with the participation holding a record high of 66.0% (65.98% at two decimal places from 66.03% in May) the labour force grew just 700.
We had expected that a statistical decline in participation would have seen the unemployment rate fall to 5.1%.
Today’s update is further confirmation of a robust upwards trend in participation particularly in NSW which hit a record high of 66.2% in May.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/7/18/unemployment%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/18/unemployment%202.jpg" alt="">
The big surprise in June was the drop in underemployment (those employed who are willing and able to work more hours) which fell 0.4ppts to 8.2%.
Underemployment did not improve as much as unemployment through 2018 and had recently been trending higher compared to the unemployment rate.
The correction in June has mostly reversed the surprising 0.3ppt jump in April.
In Victoria, the underemployment rate fell 1.5ppt taking that state’s underemployment rate back to 7.9%, more in line with 7.5% in NSW.
We had been surprised by just how high underemployment has been in Vic over the last few months.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/7/18/unemployment%203.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/18/unemployment%203.jpg" alt="">
In the last year to June, most of the gains in employment have been full-time (246.5k/2.9%) and the share has been split evenly between males (121k/2.2%) and females (125.5k/4.0%).
As females are growing from a lower base they have a much faster growth rate but it is somewhat surprising that in the year to June, part-time female employment has been broadly flat while male part-time employment has grown at a 4.2% pace over the year. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/7/18/unemployment%204.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
 <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/18/unemployment%204.jpg" alt="">
Employment growth has held together so far in 2019 even if it is on a softening trend.
Unemployment and underemployment are drifting higher but the employment to population ratio has held around 62.4% since the end of 2019 highlighting that the rise in unemployment is more about rising participation than weak employment.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/7/18/unemployment%205.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/18/unemployment%205.jpg" alt="">
In the year to June, employment has grown 121.9k/3.5% in NSW compared to 126.5k/3.8% gain in Victoria.
Employment grew more modestly in Queensland (27.9k/1.8%) and just 11k/1.7% in South Australia and 20.5k/0.9%yr in Western Australian.
In the year to April unemployment has fallen 0.1ppt in NSW to 4.6% (the national low), –0.8ppt in Victoria to 4.8% and rose 0.6ppt in Queensland at 6.5%.
In which case, Queensland rose to 6.5% from 6.2% in May or 5.8% in June 2018. But this trend is shifting with unemployment up 0.3ppt in the last six months in NSW, 0.6ppt in Victoria with a 0.4ppt rise in Queensland.
Justin Smirk is ‎senior economist, Westpac Group and can be contacted <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/about-westpac/westpac-group/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Unemployment rate set to rise: Westpac's Justin Smirk

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Westpac is forecasting a 0.5% rise in the June quarter consumer price index (CPI) lifting the annual pace to a 1.5% rise from a 1.3% rise.
The June quarter tends to be a seasonally soft quarter with the ABS projecting a seasonal factor of 0.2ppt increase. The seasonally adjusted CPI is forecast to rise 0.7%.
The trimmed mean is forecast to rise 0.33% in the June quarter or 1.5% over the year and the weighted median is forecast to rise 0.30% in the June quarter/1.1% over the year.
The average of the core inflation measures is forecast to print 0.31% in the June quarter with the annual pace easing back to a 1.3% rise from a 1.4% rise.
In June, we forecast that fresh fruit and vegetable prices drag food prices down 0.4% in the quarter.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/7/16/CPI%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/16/CPI%201.jpg" alt="">
Source: Westpac 
Housing costs are down slightly due to falling utilities and there is the usual seasonal fall in pharmaceuticals while car prices fall again.
Auto fuel is forecast to make the single largest contribution rising 11%.
Alcohol and tobacco rose modestly while clothing and footwear had a positive quarter.
Health costs continue to rise solidly (as rising medical and hospital services more than offset falling pharmaceuticals) and there was an unseasonal gain in domestic holiday travel.
Traded prices are forecast to rise 0.8% in the June quarter while non- traded prices are forecast to rise 0.4% in the June quarter.
Outside of fuel, there is very little inflationary pressure in the Australian economy.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/7/16/CPI%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/16/CPI%202.jpg" alt="">
 
Core inflation remains well below the bottom of the RBA target band as moderating housing costs hold back modest inflationary pressure elsewhere.
Competitive deflationary pressure in consumer goods is limiting the pass through of the weaker AUD though it is having an impact.
As such, we find it hard to see how core inflation could break higher any time soon.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/7/16/2019%20Q2.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/16/2019%20Q2.jpg" alt="">
Recap March quarter CPI - above expectations
The CPI was flat in the March quarter compared to a market median expectation of 0.2% and Westpac’s 0.1%.
The annual rate eased back to 1.3% from 1.8% in Q4.
Of note, housing costs were flat in the quarter as falling dwelling prices offset modest gains in rents and other housing costs which is key to low non-tradable and core inflation prints.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/7/16/dwelling%20inflation.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge:
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<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/7/16/dwelling%20prices.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
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<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/16/weaker%20AUD.jpg" alt="">
Drought is a surprising negative for food prices in Q2
The continuing dry conditions on the east coast have, for now, suppressed wholesale prices for agricultural goods as growers sell stock they can no longer support increasing supply. 
This is particularly so for meat (beef and lamb) but we have to be careful not to take this too far due to significant variation in the quality of stressed stock plus, for now, anecdotally many growers are choosing to bear the costs of feeding stock rather than selling.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/7/16/lamb%20price%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/16/lamb%20price%201.jpg" alt="">
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/7/16/beef%20price.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
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Beef and veal prices are expected to rise modestly as are lamb and goat prices.
Pork should have a seasonal fall in price but we are closely watching the rise in global pork prices as a large proportion of the Chinese pork herd is slaughtered to control an outbreak of African swine flu. This should be boosting the price of imported pork and has been boosting the demand for alternative meats including chicken.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/7/16/veggie%20price.png" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/7/16/veggie%20price.png" alt="">
Wholesale prices are pointing to meaningful fall in fresh fruit and vegetable prices. All up we are looking for a –0.4% fall in food prices (–0.07ppt contribution).
Alcohol and tobacco remains a source of inflation
Tobacco in particular remains a key source of inflationary pressure.
Even without excise indexing, tobacco prices are expected to rise 2% in Q2 contributing 0.06ppt to the CPI.
By comparison alcohol is expected to rise 0.4% contributing 0.02ppt to the CPI.
Clothing and footwear has a small seasonal rise
In recent years clothing and footwear prices have tended to rise in the June quarter due to the repricing post the New Year sales and before the start of the end of financial year sales.
We also expect to see some pass-through from the weaker AUD that has given a small boost to imported goods prices.
However, the trend has been for the Q2 rise to be softer than historically hence Westpac is forecasting a very modest 0.5% gain in the quarter contributing 0.02ppt.
Housing set to be flat in the quarter
We are looking for rents to be flat in Q2. Industry data suggests that with vacancy rates rising, particularly in Sydney, the pressure remains on rents.
But this series measures all rents being paid, including public sector rents, and not just the new contracts being signed (which is what is reported in most industry data).
As such, we caution against forecasting ongoing falls in rental prices, at least for now.
Dwelling purchase price changes in Sydney and Melbourne have been quite volatile on a quarterly basis but there has been a moderation in the annual pace consistent with industry data.
Price changes have eased in Brisbane and Adelaide while the correction in Perth was having a second wind through the second half of 2018 but stabilised in 2019 Q1.
For utilities we are also looking for the usual June quarter rebound in gas prices while the wholesale prices suggest some further correction in electricity prices is likely.
Our forecast a 0.1% fall in housing costs will contribute –0.01ppt to the CPI.
Household contents and services to have a seasonal bump
Furniture and carpets, household textiles and appliances are set to have a seasonal bump but we have muted it a bit for appliances as the price competition here has been limiting this rise.
Our estimate is 0.5% (contributing 0.04ppts) does include an allowance for some modest pass through from the impact of the weaker AUD on import goods prices.
Health has a seasonal bump despite falling pharmaceuticals
The June quarter is the first quarter for many households where the PBS (Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme) kicks in as they have spent over the threshold limit on healthcare and thus can access government assistance.
But the rise in other health costs more than offsets this price fall and Westpac is forecasting 2.1% rise in health costs contributing 0.12ppt.
Automotive fuels will be the main boost to prices
For transport, pump prices of automotive fuels lifted 11% in the June quarter.
However, allowing for a seasonal fall in vehicle prices, and modest gains elsewhere, transport costs are likely to rise 2.9% in the June quarter contributing 0.29ppt.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/7/16/auto%20fuel.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/16/auto%20fuel.jpg" alt="">
Airfare data suggests domestic holiday travel prices are rising rather than the seasonal norm for a fall.
Normally domestic holiday travel costs fall in the June quarter as it is the offseason for the Australian travel/holiday industry. But BITRE airfare data suggests there were some modest gains in the quarter.
In addition, the weaker AUD is pointing to some price gains for international holidays.
When you add in the ongoing falls in the price of audio visual and computer equipment, recreation and culture is forecast to rise 0.7% in the June quarter contributing 0.07ppt.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/7/16/domestic%20travel.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/16/domestic%20travel.jpg" alt="">
Core inflation remains below the bottom of the band.
The trimmed mean is forecast to rise 0.3% with the annual pace easing back to 1.5% from 1.6% over the year.
Our forecast for the average of the RBA core measures of inflation is a modest 0.3% in the June quarter with the annual rate easing back to 1.3% from 1.4% over the year.
This will see the two quarter annualised pace of the average of the core measures ease back to 1.0% from 1.2% over the year.
Traded goods and services are forecast to rise 0.8% in the June quarter/0.7% over the year and non–traded prices are forecast to rise 0.4% in the June quarter /1.9% over the year.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/7/16/indicator%20of%20cpi.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/16/indicator%20of%20cpi.jpg" alt="">
JUSTIN SMIRK is ‎a senior economist, Westpac Group and can be contacted <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/about-westpac/westpac-group/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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CPI forecast to rise for June quarter: Westpac's Justin Smirk

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GUEST OBSERVER
The February Gauge printed a decline of 0.3 percent/mth taking the annual rate down slightly from 2.0 percent/yr to 1.9 percent/yr.
The three month change dipped to 0.8 percent from 1.2 percent in January.
As February is the mid-month of Q1 it provides the Gauge's first estimate of the Q1 CPI.
More recently, the end quarter reading has provided a better guide to the CPI than the mid-month.
As such, we will wait for the March reading to get a more comprehensive update.
However, since March 2016 neither measure has provided us with a reliable guide to the CPI.
As such we recommend the cautious application of the Gauge as a leading indicator of the CPI.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/Gauge-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/Gauge-1.jpg" width="600" height="248">
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/Gauge-2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/Gauge-2.jpg" width="600" height="378">
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/Gauge-3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/Gauge-3.jpg" width="600" height="378">
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/Gauge-4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/Gauge-4.jpg" width="600" height="378">
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/Gauge-5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/Gauge-5.jpg" width="600" height="378">
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/Gauge-6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/Gauge-6.jpg" width="600" height="366">
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/Gauge-7.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/Gauge-7.jpg" width="600" height="378">
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/Gauge-8.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/Gauge-8.jpg" width="600" height="378">
 
Justin Smirk is ‎senior economist, Westpac Group and can be contacted <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/about-westpac/westpac-group/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Justin Smirk

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