<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/broadbeach-qld-4218">Broadbeach</a> offers plenty of reasons to live vertically, but moving from a substantial family home into an apartment can expose the compromises of high-density living. Privacy, room for guests and usable living space tend to matter more when an apartment is intended as a permanent home rather than an occasional coastal base.

A typical residential floor at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-eveleigh-broadbeach-7-9-surf-parade-broadbeach-qld-4218">The Eveleigh</a>, on Surf Parade,&nbsp;contains just four apartments. The 94-residence development by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/hirsch-faigen">Hirsch &amp; Faigen</a> is predominantly made up of expansive three-bedroom homes, with a limited collection of half-floor penthouses above.

Across the apartment floors, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a> has used the relatively limited number of residences to give each home greater access to natural light and outlook. Living spaces extend towards full-height glazing, while a series of bay windows frame selected views across the Pacific Ocean, city and hinterland rather than treating the building edge as a continuous wall of glass.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=149670 project_image_fid=360965]

“The apartment floors deliver a collection of homes that embrace controlled outlook via a series of bay windows deliberately framing moments of view,” Rothelowman Director Kim Lowman said.

From outside, those projecting forms contribute to the tower’s faceted profile. Strong horizontal and vertical elements establish its proportions, while the changing position of the sun alters the light, shadow and reflection across the façade throughout the day.

The same attention moves inside the apartments, where the material palette combines warm timber, natural stone, metallic detailing and softer curved forms. Kitchens sit within the main living zone, with stone island benches, integrated joinery and European appliances, before the living areas extend towards the glazing and the outlook.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=149670 project_image_fid=360981]

Three genuine bedrooms provide room to accommodate family and guests, while two secure car spaces and storage address some of the practical considerations that can become more noticeable when moving from a larger home. Feedback from the display suite has centred on the warmth and restraint of the interiors, with buyers commenting that the residences feel like homes rather than conventional coastal apartments.

A limited collection of half-floor penthouses occupies the upper levels, increasing the scale of the living spaces and adding private balconies and elevated finishes. From this position, the outlook extends between the ocean and hinterland.

Outside the private residences, The Eveleigh separates its shared spaces between the podium and rooftop. The podium is centred on wellness, with subtropical landscaping surrounding a swimming pool and pool terrace, yoga garden, private gymnasium, sauna and hot and cold plunge facilities. Landscaped retreats and pavilions provide additional places to sit away from the main recreation areas.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=149670 project_image_fid=360966]

Higher in the building, a rooftop pavilion and private dining suite sit alongside resident lounge, barbecue and outdoor dining areas, opening towards panoramic views across the ocean, city and hinterland.

“Buyers are no longer just looking for an apartment, but a lifestyle where they can relax, reset, and enjoy a balanced way of living,” Hirsch &amp; Faigen Director of Sales Matt George said.

Interest to date has come from established owner-occupiers and interstate lifestyle purchasers, including buyers planning a future move to the Gold Coast. Many are coming from larger homes and want to reduce ongoing maintenance without giving up space for family and guests, privacy, two car spaces or the ability to entertain at home.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=149670 project_image_fid=360969]

Much of that daily life can also take place beyond the building without requiring a drive. Kurrawa Beach and Pratten Park are an easy walk from Surf Parade, while Pacific Fair, Oracle Boulevard, The Oasis, restaurants, cafés, entertainment and public transport are also within walking distance.

The Eveleigh is Hirsch &amp; Faigen's fourth Gold Coast development since entering the market in 2021, following The Hemingway at Palm Beach, The Emerson at Kirra and Yves at Mermaid Beach. Each of the preceding projects sold out before completion.

“Broadbeach had been on our radar throughout our time operating on the Gold Coast,” the developer said. “Following our projects in Palm Beach, Kirra and Mermaid Beach, Broadbeach represented the natural next step for the business.”

The Surf Parade site brought together proximity to the beach, protected coastal outlooks and walkability to dining, shopping and recreation. Hirsch &amp; Faigen also identified the street as an emerging premium residential address, with enough separation from Broadbeach's busier destinations to retain a quieter environment at home.

The Eveleigh is now under construction by Maxcon, with completion forecast for mid-2028. Three-bedroom residences are currently available from $2.87 million.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=149670]

Joel Robinson

The Eveleigh brings house-like apartments to Broadbeach

A long-stalled Campbelltown development site is back in play, with new plans for 139 apartments set to supersede a mixed-use scheme approved almost a decade ago but never built.

The new proposal for 28 Cordeaux Street would deliver 116 market and 23 affordable apartments in a part 14-storey building, bringing a substantial new project into a Campbelltown market where new apartment supply remains limited.

Plans have been filed over the 3,092 sqm corner site at Moore-Oxley Street, around 600 metres from Campbelltown Railway Station and the city-centre retail core.

The site already carries a mixed-use residential approval dating to 2016. Doroch Architects has now been engaged on a larger replacement scheme, which is progressing as a State Significant Development Application following a Housing Delivery Authority determination in August 2025.

The apartment mix comprises 39 one-bedroom, 72 two-bedroom and 28 three-bedroom residences. Two-bedroom apartments make up just over half of the project, while three-bedroom homes account for 20 per cent.

<img alt="First look: New 139-apartment plans revive long-stalled Campbelltown city centre site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="136dd5b9-3791-4da6-9e31-76f533f5b4de" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Campbelltown%20da2.png?VersionId=LgOSy9nwf5u.MGswBBwaGGxuX8QpHSl_" />

Of the 139 apartments, 23 will be delivered as affordable housing under the in-fill affordable housing provisions of the Housing SEPP. The affordable component represents 15 per cent of the residential gross floor area and will be managed by a registered Community Housing Provider.

Doroch has sought to break the scale of the building into two distinct elements, with a masonry podium of around four storeys establishing the street edge before the residential tower steps back above.

The corner position has shaped that approach. Cordeaux Street faces toward the commercial and civic centre, while Moore-Oxley Street leads into the lower-scale residential neighbourhood to the south, and the design verification report describes the site as "bridging the commercial core to the north and established residential areas to the south."

The podium will be expressed predominantly in face brick, while the upper levels shift to brushed and grooved concrete cladding with darker metal detailing. Recessed sections, deep balcony edges and landscaping break down the upper form, with an approximately 11.8-metre setback to the northern boundary addressing the adjoining St Peters Anglican School.

<img alt="First look: New 139-apartment plans revive long-stalled Campbelltown city centre site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c8b3d2d3-c561-4bfc-a5d9-a68c0c10dac1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Campbelltown%20da1.png?VersionId=AeAEyJU02Gk2k5noUj2StziCvdQ7fW4B" />

Campbelltown has been starved of new residential developments in the last decade.

The only other notable development set to come to market this year is ALAND's Queen Square, a mixed-use precinct on over two hectares that will comprise apartments above a vibrant ground-level retail and hospitality dining precinct.

First look: New 139-apartment plans revive long-stalled Campbelltown city centre site

First Look: Sherlock Construction pitches apartments for low-rise Deception Bay

Queensland builder-developer MAYD has revealed the first look at its major North Kirra beachfront development, lodging amended plans that reduce the number of apartments and increase the proportion of larger residences.

The project is planned across a substantial 4,742 sqm amalgamated site spanning seven lots at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/2-6-pacific-parade-bilinga-qld-4225">2-6 Pacific Parade</a> and 27-33 Golden Four Drive in Bilin​ga, directly opposite Nor​th Kirra Beach.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mayd-group">MAYD</a> secured the site for $32.5 million in 2025, in what was one of the Gold Coast's largest property transactions of the year.

The development will be delivered across two stages, with the first stage carrying an estimated gross realisation value of around $360 million.

The latest amendments seek to reduce the overall apartment count and shift the project further toward the owner-occupier market, with larger residences designed for buyers wanting considerably more space than traditionally offered in a beachfront apartment.

The residential mix will include townhomes, oversized two-bedroom apartments, substantial three-bedroom residences and four-bedroom homes.

MAYD has appointed Cera Stribley to lead the architecture and interiors, with the Melbourne-based design practice drawing on the beachfront setting through a series of ocean-facing terraces and heavily landscaped balconies.

Strong horizontal forms and curved balconies will define the exterior, with subtropical landscaping integrated throughout the building to soften the built form and increase the connection between the residences and the beachfront.

The project will also include an extensive collection of resident wellness and lifestyle facilities, continuing the broader shift across the Gold Coast's luxury apartment market toward larger homes supported by resort-style amenity.

<img alt="MAYD" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1bcbb05-e659-4b47-8bd4-1e595315e2ad" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%202.05.03%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=jj0XEud1X1DuLt7_KyElhjMdZGOXmLHP" />

MAYD Founder Todd Mould said North Kirra was increasingly appealing to buyers attracted to the more established, lower-density character of the southern Gold Coast.

"North Kirra presents one of the most compelling luxury residential opportunities currently emerging in Australia, combining absolute beachfront with the character and authenticity that buyers are increasingly seeking, and the same sense of tight-knit community that defined Burleigh and Currumbin perhaps 10 or 15 years ago," Mould said.

"With Gold Coast Airport on its doorstep, it also offers a level of accessibility that broadens its appeal across almost every market demographic."

The project comes as the southern Gold Coast continues to attract an increasing share of high-end apartment development and buyer activity.

Kirra in particular has emerged as one of the region's more tightly held beachfront markets, with its relatively low-density character, established surf and hospitality scene and proximity to Gold Coast Airport differentiating it from the higher-density markets further north.

Mould said those characteristics had informed the approach MAYD and Cera Stribley had taken to the project.

"We've worked closely with Cera Stribley to create a vision that is deeply connected to its surroundings," he said.

"Inspired by the coastline itself, the architecture has been shaped around space, privacy and resort-style living, creating a collection of homes that reflects the next generation of luxury on the southern Gold Coast."

MOTIV Managing Director Carly Cottam, who has been appointed to market the project, said buyer attention had continued to move south along the Gold Coast.

"Purchasers who may once have defaulted to Broadbeach, Main Beach or Surfers Paradise are increasingly recognising the value of a genuine beachfront location that offers lower density, strong amenity and a more established sense of community," Cottam said.

"Kirra has a powerful combination of growing demand and genuine scarcity. Beachfront supply is inherently constrained, the area remains relatively low density, and buyers are increasingly placing a premium on locations that feel established, uncrowded and authentic rather than heavily developed."

Cottam said the proximity to Gold Coast Airport was also proving increasingly important for interstate and second-home buyers.

"Being minutes from Gold Coast Airport makes it particularly compelling for interstate buyers, frequent travellers and second-home purchasers who can access an authentic coastal lifestyle almost immediately after stepping off a flight."

The acquisition takes MAYD's active development portfolio to more than $500 million, with the North Kirra project representing one of its largest undertakings to date.

MAYD is targeting an early 2027 launch.

First look at MAYD's North Kirra mixed-use precinct

<main data-perf-region="main">
Castle Hill, the longtime hub of the Hills District, has been one of the major beneficiaries of Sydney's Metro expansion, with improved connectivity helping drive continued population growth, development and buyer demand across the Hills District.

But despite that growth, the suburb has seen relatively few major new apartment projects brought to market over the past 18 months.

Hills District developer Reve Group is looking to fill that gap with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nova-r-ve-castle-hill-2-garthowen-crescent-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Nova Rêve</a>, a major new mixed-use precinct on the corner of Garthowen Crescent and Old Castle Hill Road, a short walk from Castle Hill Metro Station and Castle Towers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377679]

The project will comprise three residential towers alongside a hotel, restaurants, cafes and a skybar, more than 1,600 sqm of ground-floor retail and almost an acre of landscaped gardens.

It represents the largest project undertaken by Reve Group, the development arm of the Kassis family, which has been building across the Hills District for more than 30 years through Kassis Homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377675]

Nova Rêve also represents a significant step up from the family's first apartment development, Grand Rêve, which was delivered nearby on Garthowen Crescent.

Grand Rêve introduced larger, house-like apartment layouts and premium inclusions including Wolf and Sub-Zero appliances to the Castle Hill market.

Nova Rêve takes that approach to a precinct scale, combining the residential component with hospitality, retail and substantial public and resident landscaping.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377685]

Reve Group Managing Director Sam Kassis said the project reflected the family's three decades of building in the Hills, which has evolved from trophy homes on quarter-acre blocks to larger-scale apartment development.

"Grand Rêve was our first apartment project here and it showed us what this pocket of Castle Hill could be. Nova Rêve is the refinement of that idea: not just apartments, but a place the whole suburb can use," Kassis said.

A key part of that approach is the hotel, which has been designed to operate as an amenity for the wider Castle Hill community rather than solely hotel guests.

It will include restaurants, cafes, skybars and all-day dining, alongside conference and event facilities catering to business functions, community groups and private events.

At ground level, more than 1,600 sqm of shops and cafes will open onto the surrounding streets and landscaped areas.

Almost an acre of gardens designed by Land and Form Studios will run through the precinct, incorporating pathways, seating, barbecue areas and children's play spaces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377680]

Reve Group's Romio Georges said creating an active ground plane had been central to the planning of Nova Rêve.

"There are gardens with pathways, barbecues, seating and play areas, shops and cafes opening onto the street, and a hotel with restaurants and a skybar that anyone in Castle Hill can walk into," Georges said.

The project's elevated position on one of Sydney's highest ridgelines will also provide apartments with outlooks toward the Sydney skyline, surrounding parkland and the Blue Mountains.

More than 80 per cent of the apartments will occupy corner positions, with Turner responsible for both the architecture and interiors.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152737]

<h3 data-end="3697" data-section-id="q3n5ak" data-start="3672">&nbsp;</h3>
</main>

Nova Rêve arrives as Reve Group bets on Castle Hill's next growth phase

Interest Rates

<html><body>
Property enthusiasts are no doubt gearing up for the results of the RBA meeting at 2.30pm today.
In the meantime, we look at the things that you should know about interest rates and the current environment.
Here are 10 things you should know:
<ol>
<li>The current interest rate is 2.5%. 
</li>
<li>It’s at a historical low. 
</li>
<li>The low interest rate is being called one of the primary reasons that <a href="/expert-insights/finance/thanks-to-low-interest-rates-affordability-at-highest-level-for-over-a-decade-hia-cba-index">affordability was recently recorded at the highest level in a decade</a>, according to the HIA-CBA Housing Affordability Index. <a href="/expert-insights/finance/thanks-to-low-interest-rates-affordability-at-highest-level-for-over-a-decade-hia-cba-index"> </a>
</li>
<li>Interest rates haven’t been changed by the Reserve Bank since this time last year, August 2013, when it was reduced by 0.25%. 
</li>
<li>Prior to this, the historical low was 3% in April 2009, which lasted until a 0.25% hike in their October 2009 meeting. 
</li>
<li>In August 2012, the rate was set at 3.5%. In August 2011, it was 4.5%. 
</li>
<li>In the last 25 meetings where changes were seen (taking us to 8 August 2007), 11 were increases of 25 basis points, nine were decreases of 25 basis points, three were decreases of 100 basis points, one was a 75 basis point decrease and one was a 50 basis point decrease. 
</li>
<li>In RBA governor <a href="/expert-insights/finance/strong-expansion-in-housing-construction-underway-glenn-stevens-july-statement">Glenn Stevens’ last meeting minutes (July)</a> he noted that the most prudent course of action is a period of interest rate stability. HSBC's Paul Bloxham has said that <a href="/expert-insights/investing/rates-will-go-up-but-not-this-time-around-hsbcs-bloxham">a change in language in upcoming minutes is the factor to keep an eye out for</a>. <a href="/expert-insights/finance/strong-expansion-in-housing-construction-underway-glenn-stevens-july-statement"> </a>
</li>
<li>Low interest rates and rising property prices have seen<a href="/expert-insights/investing/economists-warn-of-a-property-bust-if-interest-rates-stay-too-low"> international economists predicting a ‘property bust’</a>. <a href="/expert-insights/investing/economists-warn-of-a-property-bust-if-interest-rates-stay-too-low"> </a>
</li>
<li>Just two experts in a recent panel from Finder.com.au expect interest rates to increase by the end of the year… however, the majority expect increases next year with a “new normal” of 4% expected.</li>
</ol>
YOU MAY ALSO WANT TO READ
Interest rates crash course: <a href="/expert-insights/finance/interest-rates-crash-course-whats-the-relationship-to-the-property-market">What’s the relationship to the property market?</a>
</body></html>

jduke-EHk3XBmHkn

10 things to know about the current interest rate

<html><body>
A new report from HSBC Global Research’s chief economist Peter Bloxham said that the RBA is expected to keep rates on hold next week with the next movement expected to be up.
While this has been expected for the last couple of months, Bloxham made an interesting observation of what must be watched in the next statement from RBA governor Glenn Stevens.
It’s all in the wording.
“A key thing to watch out for will be a possible language change in the statements,” Bloxham explained.
“For the past six months, the RBA has been stating that a 'period of stability' in rates was likely; however, with rates now having been stable for almost a year that language may change, simply because there has already been a long period of stable rates.”
He noted that Stevens had warned about a forthcoming language change, but said that it was not necessarily an indication that rate hikes were being considered.
Next week, Bloxham expects the RBA to reiterated that the Australian dollar remains higher than they would like it to be, and to revise down CPI forecasts.
Sentiment was also noted to be improving.
{module When do you think the next RBA movement will be?}
</body></html>

RBA expected to keep rates on hold, next movement up: HSBC

<html><body>
<h1><img src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/55198/width668/h3p45kff-1406675366.jpg" alt="" style="color: #333333; font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 1.3em;"></h1>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/29843/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
Charis Palmer is deputy business editor and Emil Jeyaratnam multimedia editor at <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a>.
This article was originally published on <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a>.
</body></html>

po-LsXgBTHBmX

Australia’s housing debt: The infographic that shows why we should be cautious

<html><body>
The Reserve Bank has been giving a rolling seminar on why economists don’t get real estate.
This has taken the form of speeches by the Guv, Glenn Stevens, and press releases on RBA research and opinions.
The RBA view of residential real estate is a bible for economists, containing various commandments with which most economists comply. They include:
<ul>
<li>There is just one property market in Australia;</li>
<li>Sydney is Australia;</li>
<li>Australians are naughty because they like to invest in real estate;</li>
<li>They’re even naughtier when they borrow to do it;</li>
<li>When property prices rise we’re all very naughty and deserve a smack;</li>
<li>We’re all stupid because we think property prices always rise;</li>
<li>Buying a home is, or should be, a financial decision and emotion or culture shouldn’t intrude;</li>
<li>Financially it’s smarter to rent so how come we all don’t want to rent; and</li>
<li>We’re not building enough houses because that’s what our charts say.</li>
</ul>
Stevens has been getting out and about delivering his core message, which I suspect he lifted from the pages of Real Estate for Dummies. This is - wait for it, drum roll please -“property prices don’t always go up”!
Many media outlets have breathlessly reported that Stevens “has warned home buyers that people should not assume that prices always rise”. Just in case we haven’t got it, he drives home the message with this thunderbolt of wisdom: “Sometimes they fall!”
This is why Stevens earns the big money. He understands things the masses do not.
Seriously, is there anyone in Australia above the age of 11 who doesn’t know that property prices sometimes fall? Maybe someone who’s been meditating in a cave in the Himalayas might have missed the general decline in prices from 2010 to 2012. In my experience, most Australians have a hyper awareness of the value of their home, especially when it’s in reverse.
These days we have not only quarterly and monthly price monitors, we have attention-seekers claiming they can chart weekly price changes, even daily. Pretty soon we’ll have minute-by-minute price barometers.
And all these sporadic movements in prices, both up and down, have been reported ad nauseum by a gullible media.
According to some sources, prices have dropped three times in the past six or seven months.
Why does Stevens think none of us have noticed? He has intoned the “prices don’t always rise” sermon several times recently. Obviously he doesn’t get the emails I get, from people who bought five years ago on the Gold Coast and watched their investment steadily decline in value. Or from people who own Noosa apartments. Or from people who bought during the Gladstone boom and are now dismayed at the drop in values. Or from those who own real estate in Mackay, Moranbah, the Hunter Valley, Port Hedland, Karratha and Broome.
Or people who own a home in Canberra, where values in some areas are now going south.
Another offering of economist-centric advice from the RBA is that we might all be better off renting than investing. According to an RBA research paper, it’s only if prices rise 2.9% or more annually that it may be worth owning your home.
I wonder why they bothered with this research. Nothing better to do? It’s only when you understand that this is the work of economists that it makes any sort of sense.
This really is at the heart of why economists struggle to understand real estate. They think it’s about economics. They get a tad vexed when it doesn’t behave.
Most households don’t give a damn whether home ownership makes economic sense or not. It’s not about economics. It’s about culture. It’s about how they want to live.
According to the logic of the RBA research, unless values are rising around 3% a year on average it’s not worth owning. On this basis, nobody should own a home in Sydney, because it’s capital growth rate over 10 years has barely managed that level. How have so many people got it so wrong?
The RBA paper speculates that price growth in the future will be less than in the recent past, in which case we ‘d all be better off financially if we rented.
One question: price growth where? Everywhere in Australia? Price growth everywhere will be too low to justify home ownership?
This brings us back to one of my original points - that one of the great weaknesses of the RBA and economists generally is that they see Australia as one homogeneous market. That’s why they’ve looked at the national average price growth figure - not for Australia, mind you, but for the eight capital cities - and concluded that because the city average is 10% Australia has been having a real estate boom, oblivious to the reality - that only one city has had growth that big.
They really don’t get it.
You can contact Terry via <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email</a> or on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>.
</body></html>

terryryder-YECXbqmri2

The RBA just doesn't get the housing market

<html><body>
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting minutes for the July monetary policy meeting that saw the interest rate held at 2.5% has made particular note of the increase in dwelling investment.
Pointing to the noticeable increase in the March quarter, and mentioning that over the six months to March investment levels are running close to the fastest pace seen in a decade, it doesn’t appear that the RBA is as yet concerned.
"Dwelling investment increased noticeably in the March quarter and, over the six months to March, was running at close to the fastest pace seen in around a decade," the minutes explained.
“Residential building approvals had declined somewhat in recent months, but they remained at relatively high levels and both work yet to be done and loan approvals for new dwellings pointed to further strong growth in dwelling investment in coming quarters.
“At the same time, there had been signs of a tempering in conditions in the established housing market.
Members were said to have particularly observed that looking past the monthly volatility, housing price inflation was recorded as slowing in recent months, auction clearance rates had fallen from their last year highs and loan approvals were little changed over the past six months.
Overall, they noted that GDP growth was above trend in the March quarter, and resource exports were expected to expand in coming quarters, even if not at such a rapid pace as previously.
A gradual improvement in the non-resource sector, and growth in residential construction was a prospect, “despite some easing of conditions in the established housing market over recent months”.
The exchange rate was also noted as high when compared to historical rates, and therefore offering less assistance in achieving economic growth than might be otherwise expected.
It appears the factors they will are now keeping under close watch is the extent to which the low interest rates offset the decline in mining investment that is anticipated, and the effect of planned fiscal consolidation.
A period of interest rate stability was noted as the most prudent course given current indications.
</body></html>

Dwelling investment close to fastest pace seen in a decade: RBA meeting minutes

<html><body>
While current market pricing points to around a 50% chance of further easing by the end of the year, ANZ modelling puts the prospect at less than 10% chance of occurring. 
"The results of our probit model are consistent with ANZ’s view of how the economy is evolving and suggests that the market is too complacent about prospects of monetary policy nominalisation," the report by ANZ Research economists Dylan Eades, Savita Singh, and Felicity Emmett said.
The bank said while momentum in the domestic economy has softened recently, most indicators are continuing to point to a gradual improvement in the non-mining sectors of the economy. 
"As such, we continue to expect the RBA to be on hold for some time, before commencing a gradual hiking cycle in early 2015. 
"While we think that the hurdle for further rate cuts is high, we remain cognisant that a number of risks remain that could push out the start of the RBA’s tightening cycle.
"Indeed, the ongoing strength in the Australian dollar combined with a moderation in domestic dataflow suggests that the risks, at this stage, are tilted towards a slightly later start to the tightening cycle, rather than the risk being that the next move in rates is down."
After testing a number of indicators, ANZ found that the indicators which had the best power to predict a cut in the cash rate were:
<ul>
<li>
The NAB business survey’s index of profitability (with a five month lag),
</li>
<li>Three-month ended growth in retail sales (with a six month lag),</li>
<li>The level of building approvals (with a six month lag),</li>
<li>
A subseries in Westpac-Melbourne-Institute’s consumer confidence survey that is more correlated with household consumption growth, ‘family finances compared to a year ago’ (with a five month lag),
</li>
<li>The spread between the Australian 10-year bond yield and 90-day bank bill (with a six month lag), and</li>
<li>The level of the cash rate</li>
</ul>
 
 
 
 
</body></html>

jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Forget 50/50: Rate cut prospect less than 10%: ANZ

<html><body>
Reserve Bank of Australia research has suggested that house prices would have to continue to rise at the same rate as over the last six decades for property owners to be as well off financially as renters.
Home ownership is more attractive the longer a house is owned, because transactions costs are amortised over a longer period, it concluded.
Assuming real house prices increased at the historical 2.4%, after inflation, buying beats renting when the owner held for more than eight years.
But with the 1.7% rate, after inflation, experienced over just the past 10 years, owning only beat renting over an ownership period longer than 30 years.
“Consistent with conventional wisdom, households expecting to move again in a few years’ time are better off renting, unless they believe they can sell the property for an unusually large capital gain,” the 45 page research paper said.
"We find that if real house prices grow at their historical average pace, then owning a home is about as expensive as renting.
"If prices grow more slowly, as some forecasters predict, the framework used in this paper suggests that the average home buyer would be financially better off renting.
"We decompose house prices into contributions from rents, interest rates and expected capital gains, which may help policy makers in the detection of housing bubbles.
"Recent data do not show signs of a bubble," the RBA researchers Ryan Fox and Peter Tulip suggested.
Given that individual circumstances vary, the paper noted that no-one should base personal investment decisions solely on the estimates. 
The key limitation within the paper, the RBA noted was that it focused on owner-occupied purchases, as investors in housing may be better off because of tax reasons.
The RBA also noted non-financial benefits such as security of tenure, pride of ownership and freedom to renovate.
Real house prices have increased at an average annual rate of slightly less than 21⁄2 per cent since 1955.
"If this rate of appreciation is expected to continue then our estimates suggest that houses are fairly valued.
"Forecasting house price growth is subject to considerable uncertainty.
"That said, many observers have suggested that future house price growth is likely to be somewhat less than this historic average.
"In that case, at current prices, rents, interest rates and so on, the average household is probably financially better off renting than buying."
It noted overfall prices were overvalued in the early 2000s, becoming undervalued in the second half of the decade, then switching back to overvalued following the global financial crisis. 
The discussion paper series is intended to make the results of the current economic research within the Reserve Bank available to other economists. Its aim is to present preliminary results of research so as to encourage discussion and comment. 
The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Reserve Bank. 
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No property bubble, but RBA pinpoints the possible future wisdom in renting

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Raine &amp; Horne chief, Angus Raine, has said that the Reserve Bank of Australia should take a lead from Europe and meet every six weeks rather than once a month.
With a recent meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank committing to the change, Raine said that it would be sensible for the Reserve Bank to follow their lead and move to this new six week cycle. The European Central Bank will be taking this step from January 2015, although their non-monetary policies will continue as usual.
Raine said that in the past, RBA decisions take a few months to wash through the system and to affect consumer confidence, business activity and the real estate market, however they continue to meet and make decisions on a monthly basis.
“Moreover, we've seen how the lead up to an RBA board meeting can be front page news and the hype and speculation leaves buyers and sellers holding their breath in the weeks before and after the outcome is announced, which stymies real estate activity,” said Raine.
“To be fair, the impact of the monthly meetings is not as emphatic in a bull run like we've enjoyed over the past two years but I'm more concerned about the effect when the RBA starts tightening monetary policy with a series of hikes, which is expected to begin later this year or early next.”
He noted that even if changes cause mortgage repayments to increase by as little as $50, it will take home owners a fortnight to calculate what they can afford.
“Longer intervals between meetings could give the RBA more time for its decisions to work their magic and minimise the impact that the meetings have on business and investment activity,” he said.
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RBA should turn to meetings every six weeks: Angus Raine

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ANZ refrained from changing its variable interest rates for its home loans in its hastened July monthly review.
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Its standard variable home loan rate remains at 5.88% per annum (5.98% per annum comparison rate). 
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But the ANZ has announced, while sticking to a formal monthly review, that it will now come quicker - by the Friday following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s board meeting, not the second Friday.
“The change to the timing of our monthly review follows consistent customer feedback that they would like to understand the outcome of our interest rate review process earlier in the month in line with our competitors,” the ANZ chief Philip Chronican said.
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“Given the more predictable international economic environment and the greater stability that exists in offshore funding markets we are now in a position to assess the impact of any RBA decision along with the other drivers of funding costs in a more timely way,” Mr Chronican said.
The ANZ went solo in late 2011 with its second Friday monthly review following a statement in December 2011 that the bank would announce any changes to variable mortgage rates for retail mortgages and small business lending on the second Friday of each month
The other big banks have stuck to erratically making announcements without any formal timetable following official RBA cash rate announcements that come on the first Tuesday of the month. 
The latest ANZ interest rate change was announced last August lowering interest rates for variable rate mortgages by 0.25% per annum following its monthly interest rate review.
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ANZ will be quicker to announce any rate change

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The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has again chosen to keep the overnight cash rate at its record low level of 2.5%. The cash rate has not moved since August 2013.
The decision was widely anticipated by property industry commentators, with 18 surveyed industry experts recently <a href="/expert-insights/finance/experts-predict-rba-will-keep-rates-on-hold-for-july-finder">predicting the cash rate would stay on hold</a>.
RP Data’s research director Tim Lawless says that the cash rate is likely to stay on hold for the rest of the year.
“The RBA interest rate decision came at a time when value growth across the housing market continues to trend higher, albeit at a lower rate than in the recent past and the Australian dollar has remained stubbornly high around the ninety four cent mark,” said Lawless.      
“RP Data recently reported that dwelling values were down 0.2% over the June quarter, dragged down by a very weak May result and a partial recovery of values in June.  Policy makers, including the RBA, are likely to be reassured by the slowdown in housing market conditions, where the rate of growth earlier in the year was increasingly viewed as unsustainable.
“It is looking increasingly like the official cash rate will remain at its low setting, at least for the remainder of this year, which should continue to support housing demand.  Capital gains over the past financial year were recorded at 10.1% across the combined capital cities, however we are expecting growth rates to wind down over the coming financial year as natural affordability constraints and low rental yields in the largest capital cities work to slow the rate of capital gains.
LJ Hooker chief executive Grant Harrod said that a future increase is expected.
“The continued stability of rates will give buyers extra confidence, even with speculation an increase will eventually come,’’ said Harrod.
“We have seen property price growth soften as the market heads into winter but, even still, demand is strong as seen in the volume of sales and auction clearance rates around Australia’s various markets.’’
LJ Hooker national research manager Mathew Tiller said unemployment levels remain at a stable 5.8%, in spite of concerns over the retail and mining sectors, while inflation is within the RBA’s target band.
However, he said that international markets could affect local interest rates offered by banks.
“In the US and EU, rates are set at close to zero and are not expected to move till mid-2015, while the risk of deflation in Europe has seen the European Central Bank introduce negative interest rates for bank deposits,” said Tiller.
“Major lenders here may look to tap into this cheap source of debt.”
Photo courtesy of Newtown grafitti/<a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/" target="_blank">Creative Commons</a>.
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