Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.

Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;

David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;

“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;

Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;

At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.

Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.

Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.

David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.

“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;

Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;

Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;

However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.

Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.

The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.

Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.

“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.

“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" />

Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.

The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.

“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.

“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" />

Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.

“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.

The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.

“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”

The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.

The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.

Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.

Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.

The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.

“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.

“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.

“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”

The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.

“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”

From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.

“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”

The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.

“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.

Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.

“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.

“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”

The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.

“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.

Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.

&nbsp;

Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

Interest Rates

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GUEST OBSERVER
Our September target for AUD/USD had been 73¢ since we last adjusted our forecasts back in April. At the time the AUD was trading around 79¢. Our year-end target at that time was 72¢, implying a reasonably sized fall through the middle of the year and stability (with downside risk) beyond.
With our September target now achieved, we have decided to lower our year-end target by 2¢ to 70¢ to reflect lower forecasts for global growth and commodity prices and our assessment that markets are largely in denial that the US Federal Reserve is likely to begin raising interest rates in September with a follow up move in December.
When we adopted the end year-end target of 72¢ in April, our contemporaneous estimate of fair value was around 74¢ compared to an actual of 79¢ - a premium of 5¢. (The AUD has traded at a consistent margin above fair value through most of its depreciation in recent years.) At that time our projection of fair value by year end was 69¢, based on our forecasts for commodity prices, interest rate differentials and Australia’s net foreign debt – the key drivers of fair value.
We have recently revised down our outlook for commodity prices and we have also increased our projected net foreign debt, both of which lower fair value. The net effect has subtracted 3¢ from our prior figure, leaving our fair value projection for the end of the year at 66¢.
On the commodity front, in April, when we forecast AUD/USD to reach 72¢ by year’s end we expected the Australian commodities index to reach 188. That has now been revised down to 165 (–12%), with the bulk commodity component forecast falling from 227 to 203 (–11%).
A significant explanation for this downward revision has been our lower forecast for global growth in both 2015 and 2016. The 2015 forecast has been reduced from 3.5% in April to 3.2% and the 2016 forecast has been reduced from 4.1% to 3.6%. Downward adjustments to the growth outlook in the US, China and East Asia have been largely responsible for these changes.
A potential supporting factor for the AUD has been our expectation that market pricing, which had been giving a 60-80% probability of a rate cut by the RBA by year’s end would prove to be unfounded. Recently the market has moved to lower that probability as the Bank appeared to be less committed to a lower exchange rate. The Governor’s statement following the August board meeting omitted the key sentiment around “further depreciation”. 
Prior to August the Bank had been quite successful in assisting the fall in the AUD from 79¢ to 73¢ with a consistent commentary that “further depreciation seems both likely and necessary”. In the August statement the Governor merely noted that the AUD had been adjusting, arguably implying that he was satisfied with its current level.
Pressure for further rate cuts accordingly eased and the currency rebounded almost a cent from its lows, before settling around 73.5¢. This uplift, which was clearly associated with the market’s revision to the outlook for the RBA appears to have now largely run its course.
Moving on to the other major factor at play, the market remains in denial that the Federal Reserve is likely to decide to raise its policy rate at the September 16/17 meeting. Current market pricing is only giving around a 25% probability to a Fed rate hike in September and an 80% probability of one hike by December. We expect hikes in both September and December – events that are likely to give a solid boost to the USD as markets adjust to the “surprise”.
This adjustment is likely to further weigh on high yield currencies such as the AUD as markets begin to alter their expectations about the pace of the narrowing of the interest rate differential between Australia and the US. For example, further out along the curve markets are currently expecting slightly less than three rate hikes by the Fed by the end of 2016. After moves in both September and December markets are likely to scramble to price in at least two more hikes by end 2016, further pressuring the Australian dollar.
We suspect that the potential for this sort of scenario to play out may be influencing the tactical thinking of the RBA. The Bank would see a strengthening of the US dollar as a beneficial trend which would allow for a lower Australian dollar without the need for additional interest rate cuts.
BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
 
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bevans-rYk9SxEa4r

Reserve Bank's eyes on a strong US dollar: Bill Evans

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A widely expected ‘no change’ decision has now been announced over three consecutive months.
There is still the possibility of a further rate cut this cycle and chatter about this prospect will ebb and flow through the remainder of 2015.
A very low mortgage rate environment is very supportive of new home construction activity. The RBA’s signal that they won’t be taking rates higher in 2015/16 is obviously welcome.
Governments can complement the RBA’s current interest rate environment by progressing vital economic and taxation reform. The imperative for supply-side reforms in housing around planning timelines, land supply, infrastructure delivery, and inefficient taxation has never been greater. 
Successful reform outcomes would generate improved economic and productivity growth, greatly assisting the rebalancing of Australia’s economic growth.
The credit rationing to residential investors and higher barriers to new foreign property investment is, however, a different story entirely. These moves will have some adverse impact on new home building activity. 
You wouldn’t want these controls to get out of hand given new home construction is the key driver of domestic growth through the economy’s current rebalancing.
Harley Dale is chief economist at the Housing Industry Association and can be contacted <a href="https://au.linkedin.com/pub/harley-dale/52/bb7/b8" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Steady RBA rate is only part of the story: HIA's Harley Dale

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What does it all mean?
The biggest change in the text accompanying the interest rate decision were the comments relating to the Aussie dollar. Since May last year the RBA has suggested that the Aussie dollar was too high in relation to commodity prices. In April 2015 the RBA indicated that further depreciation of the Aussie dollar was “likely”. And in recent months it has noted depreciation was “likely and necessary”. In the latest statement the RBA merely says that “The Australian dollar is adjusting to the significant declines in key commodity prices.” 
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<div class="column">That doesn’t mean that the Aussie dollar won’t fall further, but the RBA is seemingly happy with the adjustment that has occurred to date. In other words, the dollar is broadly where it needs to be. </div>
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<div class="column">In terms of the economy, the only real issue is the exuberance by property purchasers in Melbourne and Sydney. Still, banks have lifted interest rates on residential investment loans in response to requests from APRA to restrain investor enthusiasm. At the same time, the supply of residential properties is set to lift in Melbourne and Sydney over the coming 18 months judging by data on council approvals to build new dwellings. The increased supply of homes (new construction) will gradually meet the elevated demand and therefore temper growth in home prices. </div>
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<div class="column">The majority of private sector economists believe that official interest rates will be unchanged over the coming year. However, a small number of economists still believe that there is scope for the Reserve Bank to cut rates again. </div>
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On the economy, the Reserve Bank continues to mull whether the speed limit of the economy has declined: “In Australia, the available information suggests that the economy has continued to grow. While the rate of growth has been somewhat below longer-term averages, it has been associated with somewhat stronger growth of employment and a steady rate of unemployment over the past year.” 
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On home prices, the Reserve Bank is watching developments closely: “Dwelling prices continue to rise strongly in Sydney, though trends have been more varied in a number of other cities. The Bank is working with other regulators to assess and contain risks that may arise from the housing market.” 
<ul>
<li>Perspectives on interest rates </li>
<li>The previous rate cut was in May 2015 (25 basis points), taking the cash rate to a record low of 2.00%. </li>
<li>There have been 10 rate cuts since November 2011. </li>
<li>The Reserve Bank had previously lifted rates seven times from October 2009 to November 2010 – a total of 1.75 percentage points, from 3.00% to 4.75% </li>
</ul>
<a href="/images/2015/08/04/Screen%20Shot%202015-08-04%20at%203.55.09%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/08/04/Screen%20Shot%202015-08-04%20at%203.55.09%20PM.png" alt="">
What are the implications of today’s decision?
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We remain on the belief that the Reserve Bank is reluctant to cut rates again, with the central bank questioning whether another rate cut would actually give the economy a boost or whether it would be counter-productive. If the Reserve Bank was to cut interest rates again – and it wasn’t in response to a major negative event – then it may very well be the case that many Australians would become less, rather than more, confident, questioning just how bad the economy really was if further rate cuts are deemed necessary. 
</li>
<li>
Residential property investors need to do their homework. Some lenders have lifted interest rates; other lenders have retreated either in part or in full from the residential investment property market. At the same time, a large number of apartment projects are underway across the country, especially in Melbourne and Sydney. 
</li>
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Those seeking a return on cash investments also have homework to do to ensure they are receiving the best returns available. 
CRAIG JAMES is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>.
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Biggest change from RBA on Aussie dollar: Craig James

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GUEST OBSERVER
As expected the Reserve Bank Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 2.0%.
However, we were very surprised that in the Governor’s statement on the Australian dollar he did not repeat the sentence “Further depreciation seems both likely and necessary”. Since he introduced that language in May, the AUD has fallen from USD0.787 to USD0.728. This strategy had proved to be quite successful in ‘talking down’ the Australian dollar.
It was reasonable to expect that the strategy would be repeated given that even at USD0.728 the AUD was still above most estimates of fair value. However, the Governor’s statement was scaled back to merely observe that “The Australian dollar is adjusting to the significant declines in key commodity prices”. It is reasonable that markets will interpret this comment as indicating that the Bank no longer sees further depreciation of the AUD as “likely and necessary”.
This perception will impact market pricing for both the AUD and the outlook for interest rates. It is reasonable that a key explanation for markets pricing in around a 60% probability of a rate cut by November is the expectation that the Bank would continue to openly discuss the possibility of rate cuts. A key motivation behind cutting rates would be to further lower the AUD. That motivation now seems to have dissipated.
As we did expect, there are very few additional changes to this statement. The Bank remains confident that inflation will remain consistent with the target over the next one or two years and also notes that the economy is likely to be operating with a degree of spare capacity for some time yet.
In July, we noted that the Governor commented that the unemployment rate had been little changed recently and this was emphasised once again, noting somewhat stronger growth in employment and observing that the unemployment rate had been steady now over the past year. In a recent speech the Governor raised the issue that trend growth in the Australian economy may be lower than 3-3.25% partly explaining the stable unemployment rate despite growth only being 2.5%.
Despite recent evidence of rapid house price growth in both Sydney and Melbourne there was no elevated concern around the house price issue. Strong price rises were noted in Sydney with the qualification that trends were more varied in other cities.
Recent increases in interest rates for housing investors were not noted although the observation that the Bank was working with regulators to contain risks was repeated.
There was a mild surprise in the observation that weaker commodity prices largely reflected increased supply given that softer demand conditions must also be a relevant factor.
Finally, the Bank repeated its expectation that the Federal Reserve will start increasing its policy rate later this year. That move of course is likely to contribute to slowing down any recovery in the AUD that might come as a result of the markets’ perception that the RBA is no longer calling for a lower AUD. The Fed’s decision will be known by 17 September although markets are likely to become more focussed on that event than is currently the case where only a modest probability is given to a Fed move at that time.
Outlook
Clearly there is nothing in this statement that would motivate us to move away from our call that rates will remain on hold in 2015 and through the course of 2016.
As discussed, less urgency around the AUD weakens one argument for lower rates in 2015, although if the RBA observes a very strong market response then it may need to reinstitute its successful strategy at the September and/or October statements.
BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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RBA Governor's statement scaled back on dollar: Bill Evans

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GUEST OBSERVER
Going in to today’s meeting, economists and market participants were in agreement that rates would be left unchanged. As such, there was no surprise in the RBA’s decision to leave the cash rate unchanged at 2.0%.
There were a number of familiar themes in the Governor’s accompanying Statement. Indeed, a large chunk of the Statement was left unchanged from the July Statement (see page 2 for a comparison).
There was a distinct lack of forward guidance with the Bank noting, like last month, that “information on economic and financial conditions to be received over the period ahead will inform the Board's assessment of the outlook and hence whether the current stance of policy will most effectively foster sustainable growth and inflation consistent with the target”. In other words, another rate cut has not been ruled out. But equally, the RBA doesn’t have an explicit easing bias. What we previously described as a soft implicit easing bias has been further watered down by a change in narrative around the labour market and AUD.
The Bank has clearly become more comfortable with conditions in the labour market. After refraining from commenting on the labour market in last month’s statement, Governor Stevens stated that below trend growth, “has been associated with somewhat stronger growth of employment and a steady rate of unemployment over the past year.”
The previous mantra around AUD depreciation seeming likely and necessary to foster growth was noticeable in its absence. Instead, the Governor simply noted that, “the Australian dollar is adjusting to the significant declines in key commodity prices.” In our view, the change in rhetoric on the exchange rate is likely to reflect the Bank’s assessment that the AUD is trading in the ‘sweet spot’. That is, it’s now low enough to help the Australian economy rebalance, but not so low that is poses a risk to the inflation outlook.
The outlook
We have had a 2% terminal cash rate target for a while now and that remains our base case. Steven’s declaration two weeks ago that further rate cuts remain, “on the table” was hosed down when he said that, “it is not quite good enough simply to say that evidence of continuing softness should necessarily result in further cuts in rates, without considering the longer-term risks involved.”
The change in language today on the AUD and labour market was telling. The RBA would need to see conditions deviate from where they are now to pull the interest rate trigger again. Our take is that further monetary policy easing will be data dependent. This means that the recent strength in the labour market, coupled with a lift in a range of leading indicators, makes a near term rate cut look unlikely.
The focus now turns to Thursday’s employment report and the August Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP), published on Friday. In our view, the RBA is likely to leave its growth and inflation forecasts unchanged. Mechanically a lower AUD means some upside risk to growth and inflation forecasts. But these are likely to be tempered by a bigger than expected fall in the terms of trade. These opposing forces are likely to cancel each other out. 
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The RBA left the cash rate unchanged at a record low of 2.0% at the August meeting. 
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<div class="column">Gareth Aird is economist at Commonwealth Bank and can be contacted <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://au.linkedin.com/pub/gareth-aird/14/790/905" target="_blank">here</a>.</div>
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No surprise in the RBA’s August decision: Gareth Aird

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The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has kept the official cash rate at 2.0% for August.
CoreLogic RP Data head of research Tim Lawless said rather than lifting interest rates in an effort to slow down the pace of appreciation in Sydney and Melbourne home values, the RBA will be looking towards recent prudential supervisory activities by APRA to dampen investment demand.
"We are expecting investor demand will start to moderate as investment loans are both more difficult and costly to obtain," Mr Lawless said
"Additionally, the cumulative effect of low rental yields, worsening affordability, record levels of new dwelling construction and the maturity of the growth cycle are likely to act as a disincentive to any further acceleration in investment demand across Sydney and Melbourne, despite the steady interest rate environment.
"With dwelling values continuing their stellar run of growth through July, the housing market was likely to be a key topic of conversation for the Reserve Bank when they deliberated the cash rate today. Australian regulators, including the RBA and APRA, were probably hoping to see value growth in the housing market decelerating during the winter months, however the opposite has been true in Sydney and Melbourne."
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RBA keeps rates on hold at August meeting

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Governor of the Reserve Bank, Glenn Stevens August 2015 statement.
At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 2.0 per cent.
The global economy is expanding at a moderate pace, but some key commodity prices are much lower than a year ago. Much of this trend appears to reflect increased supply, including from Australia. Australia's terms of trade are falling nonetheless.
The Federal Reserve is expected to start increasing its policy rate later this year, but some other major central banks are continuing to ease policy. Hence, global financial conditions remain very accommodative. Despite fluctuations in markets associated with the respective developments in China and Greece, long-term borrowing rates for most sovereigns and creditworthy private borrowers remain remarkably low.
In Australia, the available information suggests that the economy has continued to grow. While the rate of growth has been somewhat below longer-term averages, it has been associated with somewhat stronger growth of employment and a steady rate of unemployment over the past year. Overall, the economy is likely to be operating with a degree of spare capacity for some time yet. Recent information confirms that domestic inflationary pressures have been contained. That should remain the case for some time, given the very slow growth in labour costs. Inflation is thus forecast to remain consistent with the target over the next one to two years, even with a lower exchange rate.
In such circumstances, monetary policy needs to be accommodative. Low interest rates are acting to support borrowing and spending. Credit is recording moderate growth overall, with growth in lending to the housing market broadly steady over recent months. Dwelling prices continue to rise strongly in Sydney, though trends have been more varied in a number of other cities. The Bank is working with other regulators to assess and contain risks that may arise from the housing market. In other asset markets, prices for equities and commercial property have been supported by lower long-term interest rates. The Australian dollar is adjusting to the significant declines in key commodity prices.
The Board today judged that leaving the cash rate unchanged was appropriate at this meeting. Further information on economic and financial conditions to be received over the period ahead will inform the Board's ongoing assessment of the outlook and hence whether the current stance of policy will most effectively foster sustainable growth and inflation consistent with the target.
 
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Sydney property rising strongly: RBA Governor Glenn Stevens' August 2015 statement

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Property investors are urged to brace for higher housing prices despite experts tipping the Reserve Bank to leave the cash rate at 2.00% ahead of its board meeting on Tuesday, August 4, 2015.
Experts who responded to the finder.com.au <a href="https://www.finder.com.au/rba-cash-rate" target="_blank">Reserve Bank Survey </a>suggested given the latest two rate cuts in February and May are yet to filter through the economy and with unemployment stable, the Reserve Bank has no reason to move the cash rate in August.
31 economists and property experts were surveyed and unanimously agreed the RBA will hold rates at 2.00%.
19% of the experts surveyed forecast a rate cut by the end of the year, with Mark Crosby from the Melbourne Business School and Peter Boehm from onthehouse.com.au expecting the cash rate to rise in the last quarter of 2015.
55% believe the cash rate will start rising next year and 39% consider there will be long stability before the cash rate will start rising beyond 2016.
Finder.com.au money expert Michelle Hutchison said while we may not see another rate cut this year, it’s still likely that property prices will continue to rise, which means higher costs for new borrowers.
 “According to the finder.com.au Reserve Bank Survey, the majority of experts surveyed (21 or 68%) are expecting property prices will keep rising this year, while almost one in five (six of 19%) believe property prices will remain at the same level for the remainder of 2015. For the hottest property market in Australia, almost one in five experts (19%) believe the Sydney property market won’t ease for the next few years, while 61% expect it to ease next year and five experts think it could be as early as this year," Michelle said. 
“Despite this, the vast majority (81% or 25 of the 31 experts surveyed) believe there is no housing bubble. However 5 experts (16 percent) expect the housing bubble will burst within the next 18 months. One of the experts – Shane Oliver from AMP – said there is one housing bubble in Sydney and it’s likely to start reversing in 2017.
“We’re expecting more borrowers to start hitting the market in spring, which is traditionally the busiest time for the property and home loan markets. If you’re planning to hit the market this mortgage season, be careful with your budget as it won’t be worth over-stretching yourself in the heat of the moment to buy a home when rate rises are also around the corner.”
 
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Experts tip RBA will keep rate at 2%: Finder.com.au

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The Reserve Bank Board meets on August 4. We expect the Board will decide to keep rates on hold. 
Markets are in full agreement with this view with only a negligible probability of a rate cut being priced in. 
It is a different story for November with market pricing oscillating between 60% and 80% probability of a cut by then. 
With this in mind, attention will focus on the Governor’s decision statement, released at 2:30pm on August 4, and the Statement on Monetary Policy which will print at 11.30am on August 7. 
We are not expecting any surprises in the Governor’ statement. He has finally found the right approach to ‘talking down’ the Australian dollar with the language:
 “Further depreciation seems both likely AND necessary, particularly given the significant declines in commodity prices”. He first used that sentence in May when the AUD was around USD 0.787; followed up in June (USD 0.7682) and then in July (USD 0.744). 
Now at USD 0.73 the AUD has certainly not fallen sufficiently for the Governor to abandon a successful strategy. Further, we suspect that the key reason behind his referring to potential further easing (“We remain open to the possibilities of further easing if that is, on balance, beneficial for sustainable growth”) in speeches is also a desire to maintain downward pressure on the Australian dollar. 
The forecasts for growth and inflation presented in the Statement on Monetary Policy will be of critical interest. 
Recall that in February this year the Bank adopted an approach of assuming ‘market pricing’ for the cash rate profile. At the time the market had a near 100% probability of a further rate cut by June to complement the cut in February. Markets could be excused 
for interpreting that change of approach as, in effect, franking its pricing for another rate cut. The Bank repeated the approach in its May Statement on Monetary Policy, when market pricing only had a 40% probability of a follow-up cut by year’s end price in – not a high enough probability to encourage speculation. 
Next week, with markets pricing in a 65% probability of a further rate cut by year’s end and an 80% probably of a move by early next year, considerable attention will be given to whether the assumption of market pricing is retained. I expect that for the purposes of continuity the Bank will retain the market pricing assumption but would not interpret this as any kind of signal. 
On the other hand, if the Bank drops that assumption, it would be a most discouraging signal for those folks expecting a near term rate cut. 
Note that in the May Statement on Monetary Policy the Bank forecast that underlying inflation would centre around 2.25% in 2016. Apart from during the depths of concerns around the Global Financial Crisis in 2009, this is the first time since the Bank started publishing forecasts that it has forecast underlying inflation to be below than the midpoint of the target range in the next calendar year.
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This is surely a very dovish signal from the authorities. Even though the AUD has fallen from USD 0.80 (the assumption used for its inflation and growth forecasts in May) to USD 0.73 I expect that the Bank will retain its dovish inflation forecast. 
The other risk is around the Bank’s assessment of trend growth. 
As discussed in last week’s note the Governor indicated that the Bank would be reviewing its assumption of trend growth, which has generally been assessed as 3–3.25%. 
Australia has been consistently growing below that pace since the GFC. The assessed negative output gap has weighed on inflation. If however, the trend growth rate was, say, 2.75% then the negative output gap would be smaller and disinflationary pressures less intense. Theoretically, all else being equal, that would imply a need to raise the inflation forecasts. 
We expect that the Bank may make that adjustment in future but not in the next Statement on Monetary Policy. 
Recall that the growth forecasts are currently 2.5% for 2015 and 3.25% for 2016, down from 2.75% and 3.5% respectively in the February Statement. 
Since May the data releases around the real economy have generally been disappointing. In particular the March quarter national accounts and the March quarter Capex survey have revealed a weaker than expected investment profile for both mining and non-mining and no evidence of a recovery in the downbeat 2.5% annualised pace of consumer spending. 
The ‘sticker shock’ effect of further lowering the 2015 forecast seems too high to consider but it does seem likely that the growth forecast for 2016 will be reduced to 3%. 
Policy will be targeted on growth in 2016. At 3%, growth would still be assessed at ‘around’ current estimates of trend and would still be consistent with no policy change. 
However, markets might seize on the disturbing downtrend in the 2016 growth forecasts and speculate on a ‘below trend’ forecast for 2016 in the November Statement on Monetary Policy. 
That would not be a good strategy. 
By then the Bank is likely to have adopted a lower trend growth assumption (say 2.5–2.75%). Even with a further downward revision to the growth forecast in 2016, from 3% to 2.75%, this would still be at or above the newly assessed trend precluding the need for a policy response. 
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BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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RBA will hold: Westpac's Bill Evans

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Latest figures from HSBC's global research team expect the Reserve Bank to keep rates on hold next week in order to further stabilise growth and keep a lid on asset prices.
Recent moves by APRA to slow investor lending will begin to take effect in the next few months, according to Paul Bloxham, chief economist of HSBC, with concerns the benefits of cutting rates further could be outweighed by the costs. 
"The prudential regulator is now requiring banks to hold more capital and, to this end, has announced that mortgage risk weightings will be increased for the major banks from approximately 16% currently to at least 25% by 1 July 2016," Mr Bloxham said. 
"The banks are responding to the APRA’s increased scrutiny by toughening up requirements for investor mortgages. Actions taken so far have included lifting interest rates on investor loans, imposing limits onmaximum loan-to-value and increasing servicing requirements."
"We expect the cash rate to be held steady at 2.00% next week and for the RBA to repeat its emphasis on the need for the AUD to fall to assist the ongoing rebalancing of growth."
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