Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.

Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;

David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;

“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;

Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;

At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.

Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.

Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.

David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.

“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;

Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;

Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;

However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.

Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.

The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.

Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.

“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.

“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" />

Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.

The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.

“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.

“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" />

Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.

“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.

The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.

“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”

The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.

The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.

Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.

Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.

The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.

“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.

“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.

“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”

The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.

“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”

From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.

“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”

The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.

“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.

Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.

“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.

“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”

The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.

“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.

Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.

&nbsp;

Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

Interest Rates

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The CAMA RBA Shadow Board believes the RBA will keep the current interest rate on hold at 2% due to a weakening outlook for the global economy and shaky financial markets.
According to the CAMA RBA Shadow Board, due to the latest estimates of inflation at 1.5%, below the RBA’s target band of 2-3%, and delayed action by the US Fed, 72% of Shadow Board members believe the RBA will keep rates as they are.
The said the Australian property market is still looking strong, with the construction PMI surging to 53.8 in August, from 47.1 in July. 
"However, in the same month building permits have fallen by nearly 7%. The local stock market has been suffering considerable losses, the S&amp;P/ASX200 closing below 5000 earlier this week. With heightened uncertainty affecting global capital markets, it is unlikely domestic share prices will rebound significantly," it said.
"The Federal Reserve Bank has delayed the highly anticipated increase in the federal funds rate, citing low inflationary pressure and fragile capital markets. Delayed action by the Federal Reserve is likely to reduce the pressure to increase the domestic cash rate. In Europe, attention has shifted from the Greek debt crisis to the unabating refugee crisis. China’s economy continues to slow, with its manufacturing sector contracting for the second month in a row. Many experts are now expecting China’s GDP growth to fall to 6%. Global capital markets continue to pose threats.
"The probabilities at longer horizons are as follows: 6 months out, the estimated probability that the cash rate should remain at 2% equals 25% (27% in September). The estimated need for an interest rate increase lies at 62% (65% in September), while the need for a rate decrease is estimated at 13% (8% in September). A year out, the Shadow Board members’ confidence in a required cash rate increase equals 68% (six percentage points down from September), in a required cash rate decrease 14% (9% in September) and in a required hold of the cash rate 18% (unchanged)."
 
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mick.cee-iDmgDDAmu8

RBA to keep interest rates on hold

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Currency depreciations may not work for every country, but the lower AUD is already providing clear support for Australia's growth (and inflation). 
Services exports, including tourism and education exports, have picked up and the lower currency is also beginning to discourage services imports. Net services exports have contributed more to GDP growth over the past year than resources exports, in a clear sign that the lower AUD is working. More broadly, business conditions and jobs growth have picked up, as very low interest rates and the lower AUD support growth. 
For quite some time, the central bank had been concerned that Australia would not be able to head back to a balanced growth path with low interest rates alone and that it would require the AUD to fall. In the past three months it has fallen 6% in trade-weighted terms and is now at a level with which the RBA is comfortable. In recent testimony, RBA Governor, Glenn Stevens, noted that 'you would be hard pressed to say [the AUD] was seriously misaligned at the moment'. Comparing the AUD to the level of commodity prices suggests that around US68-70 cents is currently approximately 'fair value'. 
Modelling also shows that the falling currency should be a strong support for growth, with much of the effect still to come. Recent published work from the RBA suggests that the decline in the exchange rate over the past year (15% in trade-weighted terms) should be expected to lift GDP by 0.4-0.9% over 1-2 years, if it's temporary, and by 1.0-1.4% over 2-3 years, if it's permanent. These are big numbers. 
With the AUD doing the work for them, we expect the RBA to be reluctant to cut rates further, despite the slowdown in China and the recent delay to the Federal Reserve's interest rate 'lift off'. Indeed, a key question the central bank is now likely to be asking is: would further rate cuts provide more benefits than costs? To a large degree this question is: would the RBA want to boost housing prices and construction further at this point in the cycle? We suspect not and expect the RBA to be on hold in coming quarters. 
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Looser policy is now coming through a lower AUD 
The AUD has now fallen to a level at which it is providing significant support for the rebalancing of growth. Indeed, having fallen by 9% in the past three months the AUD (against the USD) is now around a level that is consistent with the fall in commodity prices that has occurred, which is part of the reason the RBA is no longer publicly suggesting that it expects or needs the currency to fall further (Chart 1). 
The combination of low interest rates and the lower AUD is lifting domestic economic activity. Employment growth has picked up to 2.0% y-o-y and business conditions have been improving (Chart 2). The positive effect of low interest rates and the lower AUD is also likely to have further to run, particularly as the AUD has declined sharply in just the past three months.
There is also clear evidence in the trade statistics that the lower AUD is supporting growth. Exports of services, including tourism and education services, are picking up and growth in imports of services is also slowing down. Net services exports have contributed more to GDP growth over the past year than resources exports, although resource exports are still positive (Chart 3). 
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A solid lift in the non-mining sectors of the economy is needed, as the fall in mining investment is still only part way done. Mining investment is set to fall again in 2016, before it may start to stabilise in 2017 (Chart 4). We expect the fall in mining investment to be more than offset by the pick-up in exports and the non-mining sectors of the economy, allowing growth to gradually lift over coming quarters. 
Costs of another rate cut could outweigh the benefits 
Nonetheless, the market is looking for more possible rate cuts. In this regard, a key question the central bank is now likely to be asking is: would further rate cuts provide more benefits than costs? Would the RBA really want to boost housing prices and construction further at this point in the cycle? Although the effect of interest rates is not only on the housing market – they affect asset prices, household cash flows and businesses' costs of capital, among other things – the strongest impact is on housing sector activity. 
Indeed, a key driver of the rebalancing of Australia's growth, as mining investment has fallen, has been a pick-up in housing construction, motivated by low interest rates and rising housing prices. This has mostly been a positive story because Australia did not build many houses during the mining boom and had an accumulated undersupply of dwellings. 
But the recent ramp up in housing construction combined with slower population growth means that the cumulative housing deficit is diminishing (Chart 5). On our estimates, based on building approvals remaining around their current levels into next year, the housing market could be in balance by 2017. At a state level we see the biggest risk of over-supply in Victoria, which is already close to balance, while NSW and Queensland are likely to have undersupplies for quite some time yet. 
Further rate cuts could therefore risk both over-inflating housing prices, particularly in Sydney where they have already risen by 50% over the past three and a half years and potentially driving an over-supply of dwellings (Chart 6). In short, the costs of cutting interest rates further may outweigh the benefits. It may be better to hold steady on rates and allow the exchange rate to rebalance growth towards the exchange-rate sensitive industries, as it already appears to be doing. 
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RBA tactics and commentary 
As we have argued above, the RBA is likely to see the recent fall in the AUD as a further loosening of financial conditions that should preclude the need for further interest rate cuts at this stage. We have also argued that the central bank will be reluctant to cut interest rates any further because of the risks of overinflating the housing market or potentially causing an eventual over-supply of housing. 
In the RBA's figuring, we expect global developments to play a role. On-going concern about the slowdown in China is a risk for the local growth outlook, although we note that the RBA has been expecting China's growth to slow for some time. The RBA is likely to also hope that the Federal Reserve raises rates before the end of the year, as this would help maintain downward pressure on the AUD. We expect the commentary from the RBA to flag these global risks, but to be fairly neutral on the local economy. 
Finally, in terms of the medium-term outlook for policy, watching out for the Q3 CPI print, which is due to be published on 28 October, will be important. Underlying inflation has remained within the RBA's target band, albeit in the lower half (Chart 7). We expect a solid underlying inflation print in Q3, partly supported by the impact of the lower currency (Chart 8). The y-o-y rate is also likely to get additional support as the effect of the removal of the carbon tax (which held down inflation in Q3 and Q4 2014) largely drops out of the annual numbers. On our estimates, this effect is likely to add around 0.1-0.2ppts to the y-o-y underlying rate of inflation. 
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<a href="https://www.about.hsbc.com.au/hsbc-in-australia/management-team" target="_blank">PAUL BLOXHAM</a> IS CHIEF ECONOMIST (AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND) FOR HSBC. 
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RBA on hold as the falling AUD supports growth: HSBC's Paul Bloxham

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Fixed rate home loan demand fell significantly last month. 
According to the latest national home loan approval data from Mortgage Choice, fixed rate home loans accounted for just 14.41% of all loans written throughout the month of September – down from 17.41% the month prior. 
Demand for fixed rate home loans hasn’t been this low for more than four years. 
The last time fixed rate demand was this low was back in August 2011, when this type of home loan accounted for 13.78% of all home loans written. 
It seems borrowers are increasingly opting for variable rate home loans as they believe rates are unlikely to rise for some time yet. And, if the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s September Board meeting are anything to go by, the official cash rate could be left on hold for the foreseeable future.
In the September Board meeting, the Reserve Bank said inflation was forecast to remain consistent with the target over the next one to two years. 
If this proves to be the case, we could see rates left on hold for some time yet. 
Across the country, demand for fixed rate home loans was weakest in Victoria, where this type of product accounted for just 8.61% of all loans written. 
Western Australia was not far behind, with fixed rate home loans accounting for 12.35% of all loans written. At the other end of the spectrum, fixed rate demand was strongest in New South Wales, with this type of product accounting for 16.65% of all loans written.
Of the variable rate loans on offer, ongoing discount products once again proved the most popular with borrowers, with this type of product making up 50.51% of all loans written in September. 
While the property market is showing signs of volatility at the moment, one thing is constant – low rates. 
While rates are low and there is little talk of future rate hikes, borrowers will continue to opt for variable rate products.
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John Flavell is chief executive officer <a href="https://www.mortgagechoice.com.au/" target="_blank">Mortgage Choice</a>.
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Fixed rate demand hits four year low: Mortgage Choice's John Flavell

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World interest rates are currently very low. Market expectations for future interest rate movements are also remarkably benign.
If we look at the forward swap curves for US and Australia we note the following profiles:
US: Current Federal Funds Rate is 0.12% and markets expect the rate to be 0.61% in one year’s time.
Over the following years markets expect the Federal funds rate to average: 0.9% in the year to September 2017; 1.4% in the year to September 2018; and 1.8% in the year to September 2019.
Australia: Current RBA cash rate is 2.0% and markets expect that rate to be 1.75% in one year’s time.
Over the following years markets expect the RBA cash rate to average 1.8% in the year to September 2017; 2.0% in the year to September 2018; and 2.4% in the year to 2019.
The question is whether these extremely benign expectations are realistic.
For the US for instance these market expectations imply that even over the next 4 years, when inflation is expected to “settle” at around 2%, real interest rates will still be negative.
Real interest rates are also expected to be negative over that period in Australia with inflation reasonably expected to average around 2.5% - the middle of the RBA’s target 2-3% zone.
How does this outlook compare with the pre-GFC period in the US?
Taking a starting date of 1985, when US inflation had moved towards a more normal range, we note that the FEDERAL FUNDS Rate averaged 5.1% and the 10 year bond rate averaged 6.4%.
Over that period economic growth averaged around 3.2% and inflation around 2.5%. A reasonable “rule of thumb” is for bond rates to reflect the sum of economic growth and inflation. We accept that the “theoretical bond rate is the sum of the real cash rate; expected inflation and the term premium although we would expect that the term premium should be related to an expected growth concept.
With the equilibrium margin between bond rates and the cash rate at around 1.5% the current market expectation for bond rates over the 4 years to September 2019 is around 3% (cash rate averaging around 1.5%).
Most forecasters for the US economy would expect growth to average around 2% and inflation around the same. That suggests that current market pricing for rates is probably too “low”, even given the more subdued outlook for growth and inflation since the GFC.
How does this compare for Australia?
If we take a comparable post boom inflation period for Australia: 1993 – 2007 we note that average GDP growth was 3.7% while inflation averaged 2.6%. The 10 year bond rate averaged 6.5% and the RBA cash rate averaged 5.6%. That “rule of thumb” with growth and inflation broadly in line with bond rates also held for Australia during that period.
The equilibrium margin between the cash rate and the bond rate was around 1% - lower than in the US.
The Forward Curves are pricing in much lower interest rates post GFC than pre-GFC.
Is it indeed reasonable to assume a much more subdued outlook for growth and inflation post GFC?
I believe that the answer is a qualified “yes” mainly due to the headwinds which developed economies are now facing on the demand side as a result of the build -up in private and public sector debt since the GFC.
Consider the US: between December 2003 and December 2007 household debt ballooned from USD 9012 trillion to USD 13228 trillion (up nearly 50% in 4 years). Despite significant write-offs US household debt remains at USD 12692 trillion – limited progress has been made in rewinding the debt. Households are cautious, unwilling to take on more debt – that behaviour blunts the effect of low rates, constrains growth, and widens negative output gaps.
Similarly US government debt has ballooned from USD 7959 trillion in late 2007 to USD 16049 trillion by end June 2015. Governments are a drag on growth constantly seeking to repair fiscal damage – this effect is also likely to continue well beyond even the 4 year period we are considering with the yield curves.
In the case of Australia, gross household debt ballooned from 100% of disposable income in 2000 to 153% by the beginning of the GFC. Households have been able to stabilise this ratio at 155% of disposable income but have had no success in being able to reduce the ratio.
However, we have seen how these debt levels have muted the impact of the RBA’s rate cuts with households generally choosing to use any cash flow improvements to pay down debt rather than boost spending.
Although Australian corporates have generally low gearing they have behaved as if they are in a debt minimising world rather than necessarily profit maximising. Prior to the GFC non mining investment averaged around 13.5% of GDP. That ratio fell sharply to around 10.5% and has remained stubbornly around that level ever since. 
Government debt levels have constrained both state and Federal governments. Net government (including both state and Federal) debt has risen from -1.2% of GDP in 2007/08 to 27% of GDP in 2014/15.
Policies to address fiscal fragility have impacted government’s scope to boost growth on the demand side.
Equally we might address the growth outlook from the supply side. Political difficulties associated with the debt levels have constrained government’s scope to embrace the reform needed to boost productivity while the weak demand conditions tempt governments to slow down immigration impacting on the future growth in the workforce.
Similarly firms’ fixation with debt and associated cautious approach to investment will also detract from boosting productivity.
So do these more subdued growth and inflation outlooks post GFC justify current market pricing?
The answer is a qualified “no”.
US pricing implies a bond rate in equilibrium of around 3% whereas, even in a post GFC world, growth (2%) and inflation (2%) implies a bond rate of around 4% rather than 3%.
For Australia, pricing indicates an equilibrium bond rate of around 4.0% whereas inflation (2.5%) and growth (2.5%) would imply a bond rate much nearer to 5%.
Conclusion
Markets are pricing in an incredibly benign outlook for interest rates. There are good reasons associated with the pre and post GFC build up in debt levels that justify a lower growth and inflation outlook.
But markets have gone too far with these assessments and implied bond and cash rates look to be around 1% lower over the next 4-5 years than economic fundamentals would imply.
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BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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Benign outlook for growth and inflation: Westpac's Bill Evans

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A shift in the balance of risks in Australia has prompted us to forecast that the RBA will ease rates twice more, in H1 2016.
This shift in tact means that the probability that the AUD overshoots its fundamental fair value has risen and we revise our forecasts lower. The AUD will now trough at USD0.64.
This means that we are now expecting the AUD/NZD to depreciate modestly. We look for the cross to ease towards 1.0850 by the middle of 2016.
The AUD has continued to trade in a fashion consistent with an overshooting framework for the currency (as outlined in our FX Insight published on 14 September). That is to say, global investors have diverted their collective attention away from events in both the domestic economy and broader commodity markets, and have been more focused on financial market volatility.
In the period ahead, the focus is set to shift back to the domestic economy. ANZ is expecting the RBA to ease rates by a further 50 basis points next year. While we do not expect growth to deteriorate drastically, we do think that growth will not be sufficient over 2016 and 2017 to eat into spare capacity in the economy.
Hence, extra policy support will be needed. Risks to global growth remain to the downside, while housing market activity and the weakness in the AUD will have a diminishing impact on the domestic economy as they start to slow. 
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For some time we have highlighted the fact that we expected an overshoot in the AUD and that risks remain tilted to the downside. This shift in our RBA call makes those risks more tangible, and as such prompts us to further reduce our forecasts, with the expectation of a move deeper into overshoot territory.
We take a further 3 cents off of our terminal AUD forecast and expect the AUD to be at USD0.64 by the middle of 2016.
This will have more serious consequences for our expectations for the AUD/NZD cross. A large portion of our previous bullishness on the cross was driven by a divergence in the biases of central banks, where we expected the RBNZ to maintain it easing track, while the RBA to have remained cautiously optimistic.
With the RBA’s bias now matching that of the RBNZ, we see some near term downside in this cross. That said, this is not a shift that will justify a large move – we simply expect the cross to trade back down towards the bottom of its recent range at 1.0850.
 
Daniel Been is ‎senior FX strategist, <a href="https://www.anz.com/corporate/research/" target="_blank">ANZ</a>.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

RBA cuts make overshoot more certain: ANZ's Daniel Been

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GUEST OBSERVER
We now expect the RBA to cut the cash rate by a further 50bps next year, taking the cash rate to 1.50%. Pinpointing the timing of the cuts is tricky, but we are pencilling in 25bp cuts in February and May at this stage. 
Since the Bank cut the cash rate by 50bps earlier this year, we have consistently characterised the risks as being towards further monetary policy easing at some stage. We are now making that our central case. 
The change of view has largely been driven by two factors and our judgement that growth will not be sufficient over 2016 and 2017 to eat into spare capacity in the economy. Hence, extra policy support will be needed. 
First, we recently downgraded our global growth forecasts to ‘more of the same’ from previously expecting a modest pick-up. The downgrade reflects a softer profile for EM growth. Gaining traction in global growth has remained difficult despite very accommodative monetary policy globally. The fact that ‘everyone’ has wanted a lower currency is telling in our view. Risks to growth in Australia’s major trading partners in Asia, and Australia’s terms of trade, are skewed to the downside, with China in particular facing several significant challenges. 
Secondly, while current momentum in Australia’s non-mining economy is sufficient to keep the RBA ‘content’ this year, we see waning support to non-mining growth from housing market activity and the sharply lower AUD next year. Governor Stevens has previously noted that growth in the non-mining economy needs to be above average for a couple of years to eat into spare capacity – at best it is currently around average with little prospect of improving much in our view. At the same time, mining investment has much further to fall. 
With this backdrop, it is difficult to see how inroads can be made into an elevated unemployment rate. Even an expected unchanged jobless rate for two years – as currently forecast by the RBA – would ultimately be very uncomfortable for a central bank, especially if asset prices are flat and domestic interest rates are above global levels. The economic backdrop we have outlined above points to greater risk that unemployment worsens rather than improves over the next 12-24 months. Governor Stevens’ ‘path of least regret’ suggests he will need to cut rates again. 
Where could we be wrong? (i) A large China stimulus, but this would represent just a delay and could eventually make things worse if it furthers inflates imbalances in their economy. (ii) Momentum in the non-mining economy persists for longer than we expect. We actually expect most domestic activity indicators to remain relatively solid over the next few months; it’s next year where we see things softening. 
FIGURE 1. MORE CUTS NEEDED TO EAT INTO UNEMPLOYMENT
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GLOBAL GROWTH TRACTION REMAINS HARD WON 
For some time we have been expecting global growth to improve. While we remain constructive on the outlook for the US and Europe, we recently revised down the outlook for world GDP growth (see ANZ Live) and view the risks as being tilted to the downside. Emerging market (EM) economies are now half of global economic activity and the lion’s share of economic growth. It is these economies that are slowing. Our still constructive, even optimistic, view of global growth has it steady at around 3.5% for the next two to three years. 
The risks to this view are to the downside and ultimately centre on EM and China where: growth is slowing in a structural sense; there has been a very significant increase in leverage since the GFC and the spectre of rising bad debts lingers, both limiting the prospect of upside surprises to growth; a changing composition of growth – ie less steel intensive – which is less growth-friendly for Australia in the near term; and policymakers face the challenge of keeping reform ticking over given that growth is slowing. 
FIGURE 2. DOWNSIDE RISKS TO AUSTRALIA’S MAJOR TRADING PARTNER GROWTH
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NON-MINING ACTIVITY WILL WANE 
Despite sharp falls in mining investment and the drag on national income from lower commodity prices, overall growth in Australia has been sufficient to keep the unemployment rate broadly unchanged over the past year or so. Heading into 2016, however, we see two key supports to growth so far – housing activity and the lower AUD – waning. 
HOUSING 
Robust housing market activity, largely in Sydney and Melbourne, has supported growth via strong housing construction and positive effects on consumer spending (directly on household goods and indirectly through ‘wealth effects’). While further growth in housing construction is anticipated over the next 6-9 months, there are clear signs that new housing construction will then peak (Figure 3). While we expect dwelling construction to remain at a high level, particularly in Sydney, the impetus to growth will wane. 
At the same time, cooler housing markets in Sydney and Melbourne, particularly investor activity, would remove a clear hurdle for the Bank to cut rates further. Sentiment in auction markets in the major cities has clearly shifted and already suggests that house price momentum is slowing (Figure 4). Signs are also emerging that borrowing by housing investors has started to moderate in-line with regulators’ plans (Figure 5). We expect investor activity to moderate further.
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Combined with the threat of further regulatory action by APRA if needed, our view is that the Bank will become reasonably comfortable that further rate cuts will not pose significant macro or financial stability risks down the track.
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<pre> <a href="/images/2015/09/24/Screen%20Shot%202015-09-24%20at%204.32.37%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a> <img src="/images/2015/09/24/Screen%20Shot%202015-09-24%20at%204.32.37%20PM.png" alt=""> </pre>
THE CURRENCY
The belated depreciation of the AUD has clearly supported many parts of the economy. Most evidently, the contribution from net services trade has shifted from the largest ever subtraction from GDP growth to the biggest ever contribution to growth (Figure 6). Along with strong support from housing/property markets, the non-mining services part of the economy has strengthened noticeably. Over 90% of jobs growth over the past year came from just three services industries: professional services, health, and hospitality.
The key here is that even with further expected falls in the AUD, the impetus to overall growth from the currency is expected to diminish (Figure 6 highlights this).
While the AUD continues to play its ‘shock absorber’ role (Figure 7), overall GDP growth remains soft at around 2% whichever way one cuts the data. Even if this understates true growth in the economy, it’s clear that growth is not above average which is where it needs to be to eat into economic spare capacity and send the unemployment rate lower. 
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INFLATION NO OBSTACLE TO MONETARY EASING 
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With growth set to be below trend and spare capacity in the labour market, inflation is likely to remain benign over the next year or so. We expect the inflation ‘pulse’ to remain towards the bottom of the RBA’s 2-3% target range for the medium term. The risks to this forecast, as guided by global factors, are to the downside. 
Global disinflationary pressures are also likely to weigh on inflation. Many studies have shown that global factors are increasingly important, if not dominant, in most countries’ inflation outcomes. Spare capacity in the global manufacturing sector, lacklustre wages growth in developed economies, and persistent weakness in commodity prices are all consistent with a subdued global inflation outlook. 
FISCAL POLICY REMAINS CONSTRAINED 
The other main macro policy lever – fiscal policy – remains relatively constrained despite signs of modestly less restraint recently. Government spending is 20% of GDP. 
The prospect of looser fiscal policy to assist growth is negligible, with the new Commonwealth Treasurer Scott Morrison stating this week that expenditure at over 26% of GDP is “not something that we believe is sustainable”. His comments suggest the current trajectory for a tightening in fiscal policy through smaller underlying cash deficits each year for the next three remains firmly in place. Equally, state governments have given no indication that they intend to stray from their policies of keeping a tight rein on expenditure. 
But what about the pick-up in infrastructure spending? Centred on Sydney, this will provide some modest additional support to overall growth in the coming years. Our view has been, and remains, that this support is relatively modest in the face of ongoing weakness in non-residential building and ongoing large falls in mining and related investment.
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CONFIDENCE BOOST FROM NEW LEADERSHIP NOT ENOUGH
While it is encouraging to see a strong lift in consumer confidence following the change in Australia’s political leadership, it may not be enough to move the dial on the economy in the next 12-18 months. Even if the jump in consumer confidence, and what we expect to see as a jump in business confidence, is sustained over the next six months, that needs to be translated into investment spend and employment growth. We doubt it will, or at least not enough to offset the effects of a softening in property markets and weaker EM growth.
The government needs to focus on two key planks to economic policy, both medium to long term in nature. First, they need to get the government’s finances in order. This is well advanced, but more work needs to be done. As noted above, this will be a headwind to the economy, rather than a support. Second, they need to present a vision for Australia’s economy and communicate and legislate the adjustments to how our economy operates to get there. This takes time and may even come at the cost of growth in the short term.
As we move into 2016, sub-par economic growth in the context of weaker property markets will leave the job of supporting activity, once again, to the RBA. In our view, a modest downward adjustment to the cash rate will ensure stable unemployment and support economic activity over the medium term. 
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Warren Hogan is chief economist and Justin Fabo is senior economist, <a href="https://www.anz.com/corporate/research/" target="_blank">ANZ Research</a>.
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RBA to cut in 2016: ANZ Research

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Spring home loans are on sale according to comparison website Mozo.com.au, who state the gap between the average Big 4 variable home loan rate and the best offer on market has widened since September 2014.
The lowest variable home loan rate is now at a new low of 3.84% due to intense competition.
Mozo director Kirsty Lamont said data shows that the average Big 4 bank variable home loan rate is now 1.00% more expensive than the best on market, up from 0.84% last year.
“Four years ago, the lowest home loan rate was 2.74% higher than today’s, proving how important it is to keep an eye on rates and weigh up the potential savings,” she said. 
“Lenders are also promoting cash back offers of up to $1,500, annual fee waivers and other discounts to entice Spring buyers and refinancers so it’s an ideal time to shop around and save yourself some serious cash by getting a better home loan deal.
“Online lenders and challenger banks are tightening the screws on the big banks and aggressively lowering rates in a sign that home loan competition is now well and truly back to pre-GFC levels. “Borrowers who look outside the Big 4 banks can now access huge savings, with the top five home loan rates right now all below 4% and exclusively from smaller lenders."
A 1.00% difference between the average big 4 bank rate and the best on market works out to be a saving of $20,640 over 10 years on the average home loan, according to Mozo.com.au.
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Gap widens between Big 4 and best variable rates: Mozo's Kirsty Lamont

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GUEST OBSERVER
No surprises from the Reserve Bank Governor. Some may be a bit surprised at Governor Stevens’ upbeat tone but he always has been a ‘glass half-full’ than ‘glass half-empty’ Governor.
It is clear that interest rate settings are solidly on hold, especially given that the Governor is more comfortable with the level of the Aussie dollar.
What does the testimony reveal?
Terms of trade
“They are now back to about the same level as in 2006 – still about 30 per cent above their 20th century average level.”
Economic conditions
“Outside the mining sector and parts of the economy most directly exposed to it, there are signs that conditions have been very gradually improving.”
“Over the year to June, real GDP grew by 2%. This was in line with our forecast of three months ago and at the lower end of our forecast range from a year ago.”
 “... what is pretty clear is that the economy is growing, albeit not as fast as we would like, the adjustment to the decline in the terms of trade is well advanced, and non-mining activity is improving rather than deteriorating. If the latter trend continues, it is credible to think that we can achieve better output growth, particularly as we reach the later phases of the decline in mining investment. This is what is needed to bring down the unemployment rate.”
“There is still a pretty good chance that we will come out of this episode (resources boom) fairly well, and much better than we came out of previous episodes of this type.”
Job market
“The rate of unemployment, though variable from month to month, seems to have stopped rising, and it is at a level a bit lower than we had thought, six months ago, it might reach.”
Lower Aussie dollar
“More recently, the significant decline in the exchange rate is starting to have more discernible effects on the pattern of spending and production.”
“We are hearing about the effects of this in our liaison and also seeing it in the data on such things as tourism flows as well as exports of business services.” 
Job market
“The rate of unemployment, though variable from month to month, seems to have stopped rising, and it is at a level a bit lower than we had thought, six months ago, it might reach.”
US interest rates
“Some fretting about the first increase in US interest rates for nine years is to be expected, no matter how well telegraphed it has been. The more important factor, though, will be the pace of subsequent increases. The Federal Reserve has indicated this is expected to be very gradual, but of course that will depend on what happens with the US economy.”
Questions &amp; answers
Potential US interest rate hike
“The most anticipated or fretted about change in the history of the world”
“It is a good sign” that the Federal Reserve is debating a lift in interest rates.
Australian interest rates
“We are pretty content with where we are right now"
Investor housing lending
“It is about containing leverage”
Reserve Bank Governor notes that impact of APRA/ASIC changes for investor housing lending so far “is quite positive”
Business &amp; consumer confidence
“I take issue (with comments) that consumer &amp; business confidence are low" They are "pretty close to average" Employment
“Getting pretty good growth in employment"
Lower than “trend” economic growth
In the past “trend” economic growth was a bit over 3 – “3 point something”. Growth has been a bit lower for some time but unemployment stable and the Reserve Bank is working through the apparent discrepancy.
Economic pessimism
RBA Governor on economic debate "we have a tendency to be more negative that the facts warrant” Aussie dollar
“Aussie dollar is “finding its own level”; it is “doing its job”
Affordability of housing
Question from student on the cost of buying first home. Stevens noted that first time entry into the housing market has always been daunting and it was for him. But Stevens noted that the answer to greater access to the housing market must come through supply side – greater supply of land and appropriately configured transport. He notes that there would be something wrong in Australia given our large land mass if we can’t increase the supply of residential land at a lower marginal cost.
What is the importance of the economic data?
The Reserve Bank Governor testifies to the House of Representatives Economics Committee twice a year.
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
Interest rates are on hold. CommSec expects unchanged interest rate settings over the coming year.
The Reserve Bank Governor is sticking with the view that growth will pick up over the next few years although it was “picking up more slowly than I would like.” 
 
Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>.
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Reserve Bank content with rate settings: CommSec's Craig James

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Following the most anticipated and hotly debated Fed meeting in years the Fed has decided to leave interest rates on hold. More importantly, the commentary around the decision was relatively dovish. After all the hoopla in the run up to the Fed meeting it was all a bit of a non-event really…just as well I didn’t get up at 4am for it! 
The case for the Fed to raise interest rates is well known: the US economy has been growing around 2-2.5% and the labour market has strengthened with unemployment falling to 5.1%. And since inflation normally turns up with a lag after the jobs market there is an argument for the Fed to start hiking interest rates before that actually happens.
As a result a few months ago it was widely expected the Fed would move to start hiking at its September meeting. In the interim though uncertainty about Chinese and emerging market growth has increased and inflation expectations have fallen and so the Fed has rightly responded to this by leaving interest rates on hold. This was in line with US fixed income market expectations that had only priced in a 30% chance of a hike at this meeting.
More importantly though the commentary from the Fed was relatively dovish.
While the so called “dot plot” of Fed meeting participants interest rate expectations is still pointing to a rate hike this year, several participants have moved their view of the first hike into 2016 or 2017, one is now arguing for a rate cut into negative territory and the whole profile of Fed interest rate expectations is  0.25% lower.
On top of this, the Fed is clearly conscious of the risks posed by recent “global and financial developments” (read China and the emerging world) and the downside risks posed by this to US inflation.
The clear message from the Fed is that is that it is aware of what is going on globally and is not going to do anything to threaten global growth at a time when US inflation is below target.
There was no recognition from the Fed that it is any closer to satisfying the conditions for a rate hike. While the Fed is likely comfortable that it has seen enough improvement regarding the jobs market it still seems to lack “confidence that inflation will move back to its 2% objective over the medium term.” And this lack of confidence partly stems from the uncertainty regarding Chinese and emerging market growth, along with the impact of the stronger $US.
While Fed Chair Janet Yellen has indicated that the Fed’s October meeting remains “live” for a rate hike, it’s hard to see enough changing by then to justify lift off. As such December is more likely for a move but there is a reasonable risk that lift off could be pushed into 2016.
In terms of market implications, the move by the Fed to leave rates on hold and indications that it won’t do anything to upset global growth are positive and should help allay some of the upwards pressure on the $US and downwards pressure on emerging market currencies in the short term. However, a Fed rate hike is likely still out there somewhere and uncertainty around it will likely return at some point. It’s likely to come at a time though when there is less global uncertainty and so hopefully should mainly be a constraint on US shares as opposed to global shares.
For Australia, the Fed’s decision is a mixed blessing. On the one hand it would have been better to have seen the Fed able to raise interest rates as it would signal greater confidence in global growth and ongoing downwards pressure on the value of the $A. As it is there is a risk that an on hold for now Fed sees the $A bounce a bit higher. Ultimately though the downtrend in the $A is likely to resume – as the Fed is still likely to hike at some point, the RBA is likely to remain under pressure to cut and commodity prices remain weak – so there is no change to my view that the $A will fall to around $US0.60 in the next 12 months or so.
Finally, perhaps anticipating talk of a “Yellen put” it was of interest to hear Janet Yellen pointing out that the “Fed should not be responding to the ups and downs of markets” but rather to considering “what is causing them” which in this case has been “concerns about the global economic outlook”. It’s hard to argue with that.
 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://plus.google.com/110172465327488162875?rel=author" target="_blank">SHANE OLIVER</a> is head of investment strategy and economics and chief economist at <a href="https://www.ampcapital.com.au/home" target="_blank">AMP Capital</a> and is responsible for AMP Capital's diversified investment funds.
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Aussie dollar to fall to 60c: AMP Capital's Shane Oliver

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<div class="column">Australia is still creating jobs – it is just that job growth is still just covering new entrants to the job market, resulting in a jobless rate that hasn’t budged over the past year.</div>
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 But if business and consumer confidence lifts in response to the end of political uncertainty, boosting spending, investment and employment, then the jobless rate may trend lower to 5.5 per cent over the next year.
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 Healthcare is the biggest employer and the sector was the biggest job creator over the past year. Unfortunately the data on employment by industry is still volatile on a quarterly basis. In fact the data suggest that Mining was the biggest job creator over the last three months – a result most would find hard to reconcile. But the big picture story is consistent: Healthcare leads the way.
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 Employment in the manufacturing sector hit new lows in the latest quarter, shedding just over 42,000 jobs. Manufacturing still remains the sixth largest employer in Australia but it appears set to drop another position in the next year. The good news is that the jobs are being more than made up elsewhere. 
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What does the data show? 
Industry employment: 
Employment rose by 78,000 over the three months to August after a gain of 82,800 in the previous three months. It was the strongest back-to-back gain in jobs since late 2010.
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 Employment rose in 10 of the 19 industry sectors. Employment rose most in Mining (up 19,300) followed by Education &amp; Training (up 15,900) and Construction (up 14,000).
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 In the quarter, the number of jobs fell the most in Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (down 58,700), Manufacturing (down 42,300) and Wholesale Trade (down 17,100).
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 Healthcare remains the biggest employer with 1.47 million employees (12.4 per cent of the total) followed by Retail Trade (1.21 million jobs or 10.3 per cent) and Construction (1.05 million or 8.9 per cent). Over the past year, Healthcare added 87,500 jobs, well ahead of Professional, Scientific and Technical Services with a gain of 29,100 jobs.
What is the importance of the report?
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) provides detailed labour market figures one week after releasing ‘top level’ statistics of employment &amp; unemployment levels across states and territories. The detailed data is useful in identifying broader underlying trends and instructive about the health of the economy. 
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What are the implications for interest rates and investors? 
The Reserve Bank Board minutes noted that demand for labour has improved “particularly in service sectors” with members noting “that spare capacity remained and wage pressures continued to be weak.” In other words, the RBA is in no rush to change rates in either direction. Healthcare will continue to provide opportunities for businesses, consumers and investors in coming months.
Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>.
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