Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.

Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;

David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;

“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;

Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;

At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.

Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.

Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.

David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.

“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;

Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;

Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;

However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.

Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.

The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.

Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.

“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.

“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" />

Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.

The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.

“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.

“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" />

Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.

“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.

The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.

“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”

The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.

The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.

Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.

Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.

The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.

“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.

“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.

“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”

The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.

“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”

From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.

“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”

The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.

“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.

Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.

“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.

“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”

The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.

“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.

Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.

&nbsp;

Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

Interest Rates

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVER
Total new loans (personal, business, housing &amp; lease) rose by 3.5 percent in February after a 3 percent fall in January. Lending was just 5.5 percent shy of the 7ó-year high recorded in September.
Total lending is down 0.7 percent on a year ago.
Consumer sentiment: The Westpac/Melbourne Institute index of consumer confidence fell by 4 percent in April to 95.1 – a 7-month low. A reading of 100 is the dividing line separating optimism from pessimism.
Dwelling starts: Starts fell by 5.1 percent in the December quarter after lifting by a revised 2.3 percent in the September quarter. Work started on a record 220,845 new dwellings over the year to December, well above the decade average of 164,317 dwellings.
China trade data: The trade surplus narrowed from US$32.59 billion to US$29.86 billion in March. Exports were up 11.5 percent over the year (forecast: +2.5 percent) while imports were down by -7.6 percent (forecast: -10.1 percent).
The lending figures have implications for finance providers, retailers, and companies dependent on consumer and business spending. The consumer confidence data is important for retailers and consumer-facing businesses. Building &amp; building material companies are affected by dwelling starts including Boral, James Hardie, Adelaide Brighton, Brickworks, AV Jennings Limited, Devine Limited and Beacon Lighting.
<a href="/images/2016/04/13/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-13%20at%202.57.15%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/13/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-13%20at%202.57.15%20PM.png" alt="">
What does it all mean?
A mixed bag in terms of the data flow. Aussie consumers have certainly become more cautious, with confidence levels sliding to 7-month lows. The result mirrors the four-week slide in the weekly consumer sentiment survey.
Unfortunately elections cause consumers and businesses to hold back on spending, employment and investment plans, and that is the risk to the positive momentum that has built up in recent months. Interestingly not even a stronger Australian dollar has been able to prop up consumer confidence. No doubt policymakers would be hoping that the slide in confidence is a temporary situation.
Encouragingly the lending data was more upbeat alongside better exports figures out of China. The last couple of months of Chinese data need to be studied with caution given the timing of Chinese New Year.
However the latest data certainly suggests that activity levels are lifting and no doubt will give investors a degree of optimism, particularly in light of the recent surge in commodity prices.
The lift in borrowing across the economy in February essentially negates the prior month’s weakness. Overall, lending is healthy - no doubt driven by housing but leasing has also been strong. The hope would be that business borrowings continue to lift - driving investment and supporting medium term growth.
The generational low interest rates will be supportive of further borrowing – but there is no guarantee. The interesting point for the Reserve Bank though is whether another cut in the cash rate would serve any purpose.
Borrowers are cautious about taking on more debt. And lower interest rates compress bank margins, affecting profits and potentially investment, employment and shareholder returns.
<a href="/images/2016/04/13/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-13%20at%202.59.33%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/13/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-13%20at%202.59.33%20PM.png" alt="">
What do the figures show?
Lending Finance
Total new loans  (personal, business, housing &amp; lease) rose by 3.5 percent in February after a 3 percent fall in January. Lending was just 5.5 percent shy of the 7ó-year high recorded in September. Total lending is down 0.7 percent on a year ago.
Housing finance:  The seasonally adjusted measure of construction and new purchases rose by 1.7 percent in February while alterations &amp; additions rose by 2.7 percent. Home loans are up 15.6 percent on a year.
Commercial finance : The seasonally adjusted series for the value of total commercial finance commitments rose by 5.6 percent in February after falling by 2.6 percent in January. Revolving credit commitments rose by 10.6 per cent. Fixed lending commitments rose by 4 percent. Business loans are down 5.6 percent over the year.
Personal finance : The seasonally adjusted series for the value of total personal finance commitments fell by 3.1 percent in February after falling by 1.3 percent in January. Revolving credit commitments fell by 9.8 percent and fixed lending commitments rose by 1.3 percent. Personal loans are down 11.9 percent over the year.
Within personal fixed finance commitments,  loans for new cars were up by 17.2 percent on a year earlier while loans for used cars were up 4.3 percent. Loans for residential blocks of land were up by 10.8 percent on a year ago.
Lease finance : Lending fell by 3.3 percent in February and was up 9.2 percent over the year.
Consumer sentiment:
The Westpac/Melbourne Institute index of consumer confidence fell by 4 percent in April to 95.1 after sliding by 2 percent in March. The confidence index is down 1.1 percent on a year ago.
The current conditions index fell by 1.1 percent while the expectations index fell by 6 percent.
Four of the five components of the index fell in April:
The estimate of family finances compared with a year ago was down  by 3.9 percent;
The estimate of family finances over the next year was down  by 6.6 percent;
Economic conditions over the next 12 months was down  by 5.5 percent;
Economic conditions over the next 5 years was down  by 6 percent;
The measure on whether it was a good time to buy a major household item was up  by 1.1 percent.
Gender &amp; demographics: Men (index reading of 99.2, down 5.1 percent) were more optimistic than Women (91.2, down 3.3 percent). The sentiment index for young people rose by 10.7 percent to 109.6 in April. Across the other demographics: 25-44 years (index 99.4, down by 3.6 percent); 45 years plus (index 88.7, down 7.8 percent).
Housing outlook: A good time to buy a dwelling? – Index down 9.2 percent in the month and down 12.3 percent on the year.
State sentiment levels: NSW (down 10.3 percent), Victoria (up 0.7 percent), Queensland (up 7.4 percent), Western Australia (down 12.2 percent) and South Australia (down 5.9 percent).
<a href="/images/2016/04/13/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-13%20at%203.00.32%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/13/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-13%20at%203.00.32%20PM.png" alt="">
Dwelling starts
Dwelling starts (commencements) fell by 5.1 percent in the December quarter after lifting by a revised 2.3 per cent in the September quarter. House approvals fell by 5.4 percent and apartments fell by 3.8 percent. Work started on a record 220,845 new dwellings over the year to December, well above the decade average of 164,317 dwellings.
Across Australia, starts in the December quarter rose in five states: NSW (up 1.6 percent); Victoria (up 4.7 percent); Queensland (up 4.9 percent); South Australia (down 4.8 percent); Western Australia (down 5.7 percent); Tasmania (down 2.8 percent); Northern Territory (up 2.1 percent); and the ACT (up 2.9 percent)
In the year to December, dwelling starts were higher than the decade average in all the states &amp; territories except for Western Australia (down 12 percent) and South Australia (down 9.5 percent). Starts were at record highs in Victoria (68,943), and NSW (59,016).
Dwelling starts in NSW in the December quarter were 62.9 percent above the decade average.
Chinese trade data
The trade surplus  narrowed from US$32.59 billion to US$29.86 billion in March. Exports were up 11.5 percent over the year (forecast: +2.5 percent) while imports were down by -7.6 percent (forecast: -10.1 percent).
What is the importance of the economic data?
Lending Finance is released monthly by the Bureau of Statistics and contains figures on new housing, personal, commercial and lease finance commitments. The importance of the data lies in what it reveals about the appropriateness of interest rate settings, confidence and spending levels in the economy.
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
The Reserve Bank will maintain its ‘easing bias’ as it attempts to gauge how the economy is tracking. No doubt the lift in the Australian dollar to above US77c following the release of the China trade figures would cause policymakers some angst if it was maintained. Tomorrow’s labour market figures and inflation (April 27) will be the key data points ahead of the May Reserve Bank Board meeting.
It’s important not to ‘over-think’ consumer confidence. For most punters, the Aussie dollar, interest rates, petrol prices, home prices and the job market are the key factors determining whether someone is positive or negative on supposedly ‘economic’ issues.
Savanth Sebastian is an economist for <a href="https://www.commsec.com.au/" target="_blank">CommSec</a>
</body></html>

jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Lending lifts, confidence at 7-month lows: CommSec's Savanth Sebastian

<html><body><div class="page" title="Page 1">
<div class="section">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
GUEST OBSERVER
Australia's rebalancing act is well underway. Following the end of the mining boom, low interest rates and the lower AUD have supported a housing boom and, more recently, a strong pick-up in exports of tourism and education services. But challenges remain. 
The housing boom is now cooling. Housing prices have levelled out over the past six months and building approvals have fallen over the past year. The end of the housing boom is set to weigh on growth, while the lift in housing debt, due to the boom, may increase the risks to financial stability, particularly as there has been a significant boost to housing supply. 
We remain cautiously optimistic that the housing market will see a soft landing and that the lift in services exports will continue to create jobs, but there are risks around this central scenario. 
Australia's mining investment boom peaked in 2012 and, since then, growth has needed to rebalance to being driven by something else. As regular readers will know, we have long been optimistic that this would occur. 
The first stage of this process has been a housing price and construction boom. This has mostly been a positive story. By building more housing we have been working off an accumulated under supply of housing (Australia did not build many houses during the mining boom, which helped to keep wages and inflation contained during that episode). 
But, as with all housing booms, they cannot continue indefinitely. If housing prices and construction continued to rise rapidly, there would eventually be a housing oversupply or a price bubble. There are now clear signs that Australia's housing market is cooling. Housing prices have tracked sideways since about October 2015, following previous double-digit growth. Sydney and Melbourne, where the housing boom has been centred, have seen flat housing prices in the past six months, following annual averages of 10 percent and 6 percent in the previous four years. The cooling has been driven by a collection of factors, including tighter prudential settings and the ramp up in new housing supply (which is meeting demand). 
Our central case is for a soft landing. We see housing prices rising by 3-4 percent in 2016, following growth of 9 percent in 2015 (see 'Downunder Digest: Australia's housing market cools', 11 December 2015). Housing construction is also expected to slow. Following a 0.5ppt contribution to GDP growth in 2015, housing construction is set to contribute about 0.2ppts to GDP growth in 2016 and to be a small drag on growth by 2017. 
However, for the overall economy we expect this drag from housing construction to be offset by two key factors. First, services exports have been ramping up and we expect these to continue to contribute around 0.5ppts to GDP growth (see 'Downunder Digest: Services exports and the AUD', 30 March 2016). Second, mining investment is set to be less of a drag on GDP growth in 2017, as the mining downturn matures. All up, we see the end of the housing boom as manageable, as the next stage of the rebalancing act sees growth transitioning to being led by the services sectors. 
<div class="page" title="Page 2">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
But this is the central case and there are clearly some risks to the 'housing soft landing' central scenario. Here we focus on three. First, stoking a housing boom has driven housing prices higher and led to an increase in the household debt to income ratio from 167 percent to 186 percent over the past four years. Higher debts may have increased the risks to financial stability. 
Second, there has also been a substantial ramp up in housing construction, particularly on apartments in the major cities, and there is a risk of over-supply in some of these markets. Third, and importantly, our central case assumes continued household income growth, supported by job creation in the services sectors, which helps to make the higher debts sustainable. A negative shock to income growth, most likely emanating from overseas, is a risk to the central scenario. 
For each of the risks, there are also a number of mitigating factors. On the first risk, of higher housing prices and debts, our view remains that it is the allocation of debt that matters, not the absolute levels (see 'Downunder Digest: Australia's household debt: why we are not worried', 21 November 2013). As long as the households that have taken on the debt can continue to service it, the debt is sustainable. In Australia's case, we believe the debt is fairly well allocated. In Australia there are no sub-prime loans, all loans are full-recourse, lending standards have been tightening recently, the bulk of the debt is held by higher income households and the average mortgage is over two years pre-paid, leaving many households with significant equity to withdraw if required. 
On the second risk, of housing oversupply, our estimates show that this is not the national story, even though there are some clear pockets of over-building (see 'Downunder Digest: Australia's housing supply ramp up', 9 September 2015). 
In Sydney, where housing prices have risen by the most, our estimates suggest that there is still undersupply, which is likely to keep prices from falling.
 In Melbourne, the apartment market appears oversupplied, but the detached housing market does not. For apartments, some have also been bought by foreign buyers with the likely intention to hold for a long period, as a store of value, rather than for speculation. In Perth and Brisbane there are some signs of oversupply of apartments, but not of detached dwellings. Neither of these markets has seen much housing price appreciation in recent years, potentially limiting the downside. 
The third risk, of a fall in household incomes, is the hardest to guard against. Here, Australia fares comparatively well, but is not in as good shape as it was when the global financial crisis struck in 2008. The RBA still has a cash rate at 2.00 percent, which gives it room to cut further and government net debt is low, at 18 percent of GDP, giving the fiscal authorities more room to move than other countries. However, by comparison, the cash rate was 7.25 percent in mid-2008 and the government had a net asset position of 4 percent of GDP. 
Finally, it is worth considering the appropriate policy response to these risks. In terms of financial stability, the prudential regulator is continuing to tighten standards to making the banking system 'unquestionably strong'. This has included raising bank capital requirements. This should help to further protect Australia's financial system. 
In terms of protecting against weaker demand, the central bank could still cut its cash rate further (our central case is for a cut in Q2, partly to ensure the AUD remain competitive). A lower AUD (rather than one that is rising, as it has been recently), would also be helpful, as it would help to improve competitiveness and support jobs growth in the export industries. 
Fiscal authorities could also help to support growth by further reform to support productivity growth and well-planned infrastructure investment, which would support demand and also improve productivity. We remain optimistic about Australia's growth outlook, but, as always, there remain risks to the central view. 
</div>
</div>
</div>
<a href="https://www.about.hsbc.com.au/hsbc-in-australia/management-team" target="_blank">PAUL BLOXHAM</a> IS CHIEF ECONOMIST (AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND) FOR HSBC. 
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div></body></html>

mick.cee-iDmgDDAmu8

Navigating the end of the housing boom: HSBC's Paul Bloxham

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVER
The ATO have released important information detailing interest rates, loan-to-value ratios (‘LVRs’) and other terms that constitute safe harbours for SMSF limited recourse borrowing arrangements (‘LRBAs’) so that arrangements will be taken to be consistent with an arm’s length dealing. The ATO is officially calling their release a ‘Practical Compliance Guideline’.
Broadly speaking, LRBAs consistent with arm’s length terms should not give rise to non-arm’s length income (‘NALI’). On the other hand, LRBAs that are not consistent with arm’s length terms will attract NALI.
It is important to note here that many refer to non-arm’s length LRBAs as ‘related party’ LRBAs. However, some SMSFs have obtained loans from unrelated parties such as friends that are not related parties that still fall under the ATO’s target of LRBAs that are not on arm’s length terms. Accordingly, in this article we refer to ‘non-bank’ LRBAs.
Accordingly, this ATO Practical Compliance Guideline is critical for:
·         SMSF trustees that have already entered into LRBAs as action might be required; and
·         SMSF trustees that are considering entering into LRBAs,
that are not financed by a bank.
SMSF trustees that have already entered into non-bank LRBAs might need to revise the terms of the loan or take other timely corrective action by 30 June 2016. In view of the ATO safe harbours, we strongly recommend that a review be undertaken of every LRBA that is not financed by a bank as soon as practicable and in any event prior to 30 June 2016.
DBA Lawyers provides advice and documentation in respect of all SMSF matters and  we also offer a fixed fee service to alter the terms of an existing LRBA with appropriate documentation. Indeed, there are LRBAs that have insufficient documentation in place that are not consistent with arm’s length terms.
Background
At the risk of oversimplifying, to the extent that an SMSF has NALI, that income is taxed at a very high rate (47% in the 2016 financial year) even if the fund is in pension mode. 
When the predecessor of the current LRBA laws (ie, the old instalment-warrant exception in the now repealed s 67(4A)) was first introduced in 2007, a question mark was over non-bank loans that have terms that favour the SMSF. In this regard, see ATO Taxpayer Alert TA 2008/5.
In 2010 the ATO released ATO ID 2010/162, which considered whether an SMSF trustee contravenes the arm’s length provisions of the Superannuation Industry (Supervision) Act 1993 (Cth) ‘if it borrows money from a related party of the SMSF under a limited recourse borrowing arrangement on terms favourable to the SMSF?’ The ATO answered this in the negative saying that it was not a contravention.
Later on, in the December 2012 NTLG minutes, the issue of interest free or low interest loans to SMSF trustees was considered. These minutes record that ‘ATO ID 2010/162 failed to identify whether any other provisions of the superannuation or tax law would be contravened by the trustee entering into a no interest or low interest limited recourse loan arrangement.’
These minutes went on to state:
The ATO position on low rate loan arrangements and LRBA is that that they do not generally invoke a contravention of the SISA, do not give rise to non-arm's length income under section 295-550 of the Income Tax Assessment Act 1997 (ITAA), do not invoke Part IVA of the ITAA 1936 and are not considered to give rise to contributions to the SMSF just from that one fact alone. [Emphasis added]
Accordingly, this piqued the interest of some in non-bank LRBAs that favour the SMSF.
However, DBA Lawyers has always felt non-bank LRBAs pose risks and NTLG minutes are not binding. Accordingly, we have always cautioned our clients to keep all LRBA terms on an arm’s length basis.
In December 2014 the ATO released ATO ID 2014/39 and ATO ID 2014/40 (since replaced — but not practically altered — by ATO ID 2015/27 and ATO ID 2015/28 respectively). These both considered non-bank LRBAs with nil interest being charged and both stated that the ATO’s view is that the arrangements did give rise to NALI.
Accordingly, the position that DBA Lawyers had long been in favour of then became broadly well accepted by all in the industry, namely, that non-bank LRBAs should be on the same terms that would be agreed with an arm’s length lender.
In December 2014 the ATO released a page on their website (since taken off the ATO’s website, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150322033333/https://www.ato.gov.au/Super/Self-managed-super-funds/In-detail/News/Non-commercial-limited-recourse-borrowing-arrangements/" target="_blank">available here</a> stating:
To be able to demonstrate that NALI does not arise, a fund trustee entering into an LRBA with a related-party borrower should obtain and keep documentation that enables them to establish that the terms of the loan, taken together, and the ongoing operation of the loan are consistent with what an arm’s length lender dealing at arm’s length would accept in relation to the particular borrowing by the fund trustee. 
Accordingly, the importance of benchmarking terms of non-bank LRBAs to what, for example, a bank might offer, was reinforced to the entire industry.
However, in a practical sense, benchmarking can be difficult. Accordingly, the ATO safe harbours are a very positive step and the ATO should be commended for developing and releasing them.
Terms of the safe harbour
The Practical Compliance Guideline states that the ATO:
will accept that an LRBA structured in accordance with this Guideline is consistent with an arm’s length dealing and that the NALI provisions do not apply purely because of the terms of the borrowing arrangement.
At the risk of oversimplifying, essentially the terms are as follows:
<a href="/images/2016/04/8/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-08%20at%209.36.17%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/8/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-08%20at%209.36.17%20AM.png" alt="">
The Practical Compliance Guideline also provides further detailed guidance regarding the specifics of setting interest rates, particularly for fixed versus variable loans.
What to do if an existing non-bank LRBA does not meet the safe harbour
Advisers should contact all clients with non-bank LRBAs and tell them to read the Practical Compliance Guideline in full. Naturally, this article is just a summary and does not do the Practical Compliance Guideline justice.
If the existing LRBA does not meet the safe harbours set out above, the Practical Compliance Guideline provides the follow options by 30 June 2016:
·         Option 1 — Change the terms so that they are consistent with an arm’s length dealing by 30 June 2016. 
·         Option 2 — Bring the LRBA to an end by 30 June 2016.
·         Option 3 — Refinance to a commercial lender by 30 June 2016.
The ATO also require all non-bank LRBAs to be put on arm’s length terms on or before 30 June 2016. This includes, for example, SMSFs being required to pay a full year’s repayments under loans prior to 30 June 2016. This may place many SMSFs under financial stress given that they only have limited time available to come up with substantial cash funding. 
Moreover, from 1 July 2016 LRBAs covered by the ATO’s safe harbour will need to make regular monthly repayments of principal and interest. As you would be aware, some non-bank LRBAs may have allowed more flexible repayments such as only requiring annual payments and some only required full repayment on finalisation of the loan term.
The closeness of 30 June 2016 cannot be overemphasised. All advisers (and then SMSF trustees) should act immediately as time is needed to obtaining advice, prepare documents and arrange the cash flow to be obtained and transferred before the 30 June deadline If the 30 June deadline is not practical and is likely to be overshot, then expert advice should be obtained as soon as practical as a special approach to the ATO may be required.
Interesting points to note
Assets not covered by the safe harbours
What should one now make of non-bank LRBAs that are not covered by the safe harbour?
First, the safe harbours in the Practical Compliance Guideline only expressly apply to:
·         real property;
·         a collection of shares in a stock exchange listed company; and
·         a collection of units in a stock exchange listed unit trust.
 
For example, if an SMSF trustee has borrowed from a non-bank to acquire units in a specific class of units in certain Vanguard managed funds what action should the SMSF trustee take? Many think of such an investment as being tantamount to a listed security, but technically it’s not.
Perhaps somewhat more controversially, what to do if an SMSF trustee has borrowed to acquire units in a related trust such as a reg 13.22C/div 13.3A unit trust?
Given there is no safe harbour available, the ATO’s comments from December 2014 are more important than ever, namely: 
To be able to demonstrate that NALI does not arise, a fund trustee entering into an LRBA with a related party borrower should obtain and keep documentation that enables them to establish that the terms of the loan, taken together, and the ongoing operation of the loan are consistent with what an arm’s length lender dealing at arm’s length would accept in relation to the particular borrowing by the fund trustee.’
Therefore the onus is on the SMSF trustee to obtain sufficient and appropriate evidence to support the arm’s length nature of the terms of their LRBA. This may be difficult where there is no readily available market information and quotes and proposals from third parties and other sources may need to be researched and documented.
Indeed, some may not wish to continue with a non-bank lender and may prefer to refinance with a bank.
Actually calculating the loan-to-value ratio
How is the LVR calculated? More specifically, is the ‘value’ of the real property its value excluding GST, stamp duty and other similar costs? In the absence of ATO clarification, the conservative approach is to assume that the answer is yes.
The ATO require the market value to be established at the time of the relevant loan. Thus, the market value of the asset will generally be at the time of refinancing or if there is no refinancing at the date of the original loan.
Multiple assets for one loan
The Practical Compliance Guideline reinforces that it is possible to have multiple loans to acquire one asset. More specifically, it states:
If more than one loan is taken out in respect of the acquisition of the asset, the total amount of all those loans must not exceed [for real property] 70% of the asset’s market value [or 50% for listed securities].
What does ‘real property’ mean?
The Practical Compliance Guideline refers to real property. On first blush it seems to cover all real property, referring to ‘real property, whether that property is residential or commercial premises (including property used for primary production activities)’.
However, there are a lot of ambiguous assets which might be seen as real property or might not be so seen, such as:
·         A tenants in common interest in real estate — technically this is real property but the ATO do not expressly mention a non-bank lending to an SMSF to acquire a, for example, 50% tenants in common interest in a house using a 70% LVR and a 5.75% interest rate.
·         Life interests in real estate or listed shares/units — technically this is real property, but similar to tenants in common we doubt whether the ATO would be comfortable with an SMSF using these safe harbours to acquire such an asset.
·         Shares in a real estate company — there exists ‘company title’ whereby a property does not have a plan of subdivision per se but rather comprises a number of apartments and a company owns all the property and by buying, for example, all of the C class shares the owner of the shares has exclusive possession to apartment number 3. Technically, such shares are not real property. However, there are certain areas of the laws that essentially allows them to be treated as real property (such as the CGT main residence exemption). The conservative position would be to treat such shares in a real estate company as not constituting real estate for the safe harbour relief and apply to the ATO for SMSF specific advice.
Don’t interpret the safe harbours for something they are not
The safe harbours do not state that just because the terms in the Practical Compliance Guideline are satisfied NALI can never occur. Rather, they have the following more restrained comment ‘an LRBA structured in accordance with this Guideline is consistent with an arm’s length dealing and that the NALI provisions do not apply purely because of the terms of the borrowing arrangement’ (emphasis added). For example, if an SMSF acquires an asset for a non-market value from a related party, NALI could apply (refer Darrelen Pty Ltd v Commissioner of Taxation [2010] FCAFC 35).
Conclusions
The safe harbours are critically important. They are a very practical solution and the ATO should be commended accordingly for its positive manner in managing these non-bank LRBAs.
All non-bank LRBAs should be reviewed and appropriate taken by 30 June 2016.
 
Bryce Figot and Daniel Butler are directors, DBA Lawyers and can be contacted <a href="https://www.dbalawyers.com.au" target="_blank">here</a>.
This article is for general information only and should not be relied upon without first seeking advice from an appropriately qualified professional.
</body></html>

po-LsXgBTHBmX

ATO releases critical safe harbours for non-bank SMSF LRBAs

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVER
The RBA held its cash rate steady at 2.00 percent, as expected, and maintained an easing bias. The biggest change to the post-meeting statement was an added paragraph noting concerns about the recent appreciation of the AUD.
The RBA stated that 'under present circumstances, an appreciating currency could complicate the adjustment under way in the economy'.
It is clear that the RBA believe that a rising currency is unhelpful, as it could slow the pace of rebalancing, particularly towards the tourism and education sectors, which are exchange-rate sensitive. We stick by our view that a further cash rate cut will be needed. On timing, our central case is for a cut before end-Q2, but we see this as 50:50, given the upcoming budget timing and the possibility of an early election.
Facts
- The cash rate was held steady today at 2.00 percent, as expected (all 26 economists in the Bloomberg survey expected a hold decision).The market was pricing a 5 percent chance of a cut just prior to the announcement.
Implications
Today's post-meeting statement appears to have shifted the RBA back into AUD 'jawboning' mode. Although the statement made no reference to an appropriate level for the currency, it relayed the RBA's concern about the recent rise in the currency.
Whereas the previous statement had noted that 'the exchange rate had been adjusting to the evolving economic outlook', today the RBA said that, although the appreciation 'in part, reflects some increase in commodity prices, monetary developments elsewhere in the world have also played a role'.
The first point of interest is that the RBA acknowledges that the rise in the currency is not just in line with commodity prices. The second point is the reference to monetary developments elsewhere in the world, which suggests that the RBA may be becoming increasingly concerned about the dovish stance of the Federal Reserve and of the negative rate settings in Europe and Japan.
The challenge for the RBA remains that global inflation and interest rates are low, which is putting upward pressure on the AUD at a time when Australia needs a more competitive currency to assist with rebalancing growth at the end of the mining boom. As they noted today, 'under present circumstances, an appreciating currency could complicate the adjustment under way in the economy'.
Their use of the words 'under present circumstances', implies that the currency is an increasingly important driver of growth as Australia's economy shifts to being more driven by services exports, such as tourism and education exports.
Although the RBA has considerable reluctance about the idea of cutting its cash rate further, it may yet have to cut, in order to keep the currency competitive.
 
<a href="https://www.about.hsbc.com.au/hsbc-in-australia/management-team" target="_blank">PAUL BLOXHAM</a> IS CHIEF ECONOMIST (AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND) FOR HSBC. 
</body></html>

RBA jawboning the AUD, again: HSBC's Paul Bloxham

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVER
As expected the Board of the Reserve Bank decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 2 percent.
It also retained the key final sentence in the Governor’s statement: “Continued low inflation would provide scope for easier policy, should that be appropriate to lend support to demand.”
As we indicated in the preview by far the most important section of the statement was going to be the commentary around the Australian dollar. Since the March meeting the AUD has risen from 71.50c US to 75.75 (at the time of the meeting) having exceeded 76.50 just before the meeting. Astute observers of the Reserve Bank know that the key currency measure is the Australian trade weighted index which also had risen from 61.30 to 64.20 between meetings (an increase of 4.7%). The question was whether the Governor would attempt to ‘talk down’ the AUD along the lines he used through 2014 and up until July 2015. In fact in July 2015 when the AUD was 74.5c US and the TWI 62.5 he noted “further depreciation seems both likely and necessary”.The broad commodity price index was around the same level in July last year as it is today.
In our preview we commented that it was unlikely that the Governor would attempt to talk down the currency. In the event that proved to be correct. He certainly recognised that the AUD had risen (“somewhat”) and partly attributed it to monetary policy overseas. He also noted that an appreciating exchange rate could complicate the economic adjustment. All of these remarks are factual rather than indicating a clear intention to bring down the AUD. We can only conclude that a further substantial appreciation in the AUD would be necessary to trigger a policy response. It is interesting that the AUD lifted above 76c US in the aftermath of the statement indicating that currency markets at least were expecting stronger negative sentiment towards the recent rise in the AUD.
There has been recent talk about the importance of the upcoming inflation report due out on April 27. Westpac expects that the underlying inflation will print at 0.6%qtr consistent with the Bank’s current forecast that underlying inflation print 2.5% for the year. Surprises on inflation are always important indicators for policy and it is significant that the Governor referred to “new information … to assess the outlook for inflation”. With global financial markets settling down since the March statement the inflation report has replaced “recent financial turbulence” as the important new source of information along with labour market conditions.
A possible compromise for the Bank to put indirect downward pressure on the AUD would have been a more downbeat view on China than we saw in March. In the event the statement’s line on China was the same as March: “China’s growth rate has continued to moderate”.
Since the March meeting the Board has had the benefit of the December quarter GDP report which showed that the Australian economy grew by 3% in 2015 compared to the Bank’s forecast in February 2016 of 2.5%. Such results encouraged the Governor to continue to be reasonably upbeat about the economy: “available information suggested the economy is continuing to rebalance”; “the Board judged that there were reasonable prospects for continued growth in the economy”.
There was no change in the commentary on the housing market while the stronger growth confirmed, from the Bank’s perspective, the improved labour market conditions.
Conclusion
We are retaining our call that rates will remain on hold for the remainder of the year. That is predicated on the Australian dollar remaining broadly in the 70-76c US range. Factors that will assist the containment of the recent lift in the AUD will be a tightening by the US Federal Reserve in June and ongoing concerns about stability in China. Today’s statement certainly does not identify a trigger level for the AUD to elicit a policy response. We do not envisage a further significant surge in the AUD and remain comfortable with a steady policy outlook.
BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
</body></html>

bevans-rYk9SxEa4r

Rates will remain on hold for the remainder of the year: Westpac's Bill Evans

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVER
As widely expected the RBA left interest rates on hold at its April meeting. This marks the eleventh month in a row with the cash rate remaining at 2 percent.
In its Statement accompanying the decision, the RBA again made very little changes and retained an easing bias. However, it did acknowledge the recent improvement in commodity prices and financial markets and dropped the reference to assessing the impact of financial turbulence on the economic outlook. 
Significantly though the RBA singled out the rise in the value of the Australian dollar, which is up 6 percent since the last meeting, devoting a whole paragraph to the currency as opposed to a single sentence in last month’s Statement.
In noting that an appreciating Australian dollar could “complicate the adjustment underway in the economy”, the RBA has effectively reintroduced a subtle form of jawboning designed to try and push it back down again. The clear implication is that a further gain in the value of the $A could cause the RBA to act on its bias to cut interest rates again.
Our view remains that the RBA will indeed cut interest rates again in the months ahead for four reasons. First, growth is likely to slow back to around 2-2.5 percent as the contribution from housing fades reflecting falling building approvals (see the next chart) and fading wealth effects at a time when mining investment is still contracting. Second, unemployment is likely to remain relatively high at around 6 percent with jobs growth slowing. Third, inflation is likely to remain at or below the bottom of the RBA’s 2-3 percent inflation target.
And finally, the recent rebound in the value of the $A is a threat to trade exposed sectors like tourism, higher education and manufacturing helping to fill the growth gap left by a slowing housing sector. Soft jobs data next week, soft March quarter inflation data later this month and continued strength in the $A could set the scene for a May rate cut, which is our base case, or failing that it could be delayed into the September quarter.
 <a href="/images/2016/04/6/image004.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/6/image004.png" alt="">
Source: ABS, AMP Capital
 
However, whether there is another rate cut or not from the RBA, it remains very hard to see rate hikes any time soon. So the period of low interest rates is set to continue.
<a href="/images/2016/04/6/image007.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a> 
<img src="/images/2016/04/6/image007.png" alt="">
Source: RBA, AMP Capital
 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://plus.google.com/110172465327488162875?rel=author" target="_blank">SHANE OLIVER</a> is head of investment strategy and economics and chief economist at <a href="https://www.ampcapital.com.au/home" target="_blank">AMP Capital</a> and is responsible for AMP Capital's diversified investment funds.
</body></html>

soliver-smf6LQXgW9

RBA on hold for 11th month in a row, but rising $A presenting complications: AMP Capital's Shane Oliver

<html><body>
At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 2.0 per cent.
Recent information suggests that the global economy is continuing to grow, though at a slightly lower pace than earlier expected. While several advanced economies have recorded improved growth over the past year, conditions have become more difficult for a number of emerging market economies. China's growth rate has continued to moderate.
Commodity prices have generally increased a little recently, but this follows very substantial declines over the past couple of years. Australia's terms of trade remain much lower than they had been in recent years.
Sentiment in financial markets has improved recently after a period of heightened volatility. However, uncertainty about the global economic outlook and policy settings among the major jurisdictions continues. Funding costs for high-quality borrowers remain very low and, globally, monetary policy remains remarkably accommodative.
In Australia, the available information suggests that the economy is continuing to rebalance following the mining investment boom. Consistent with developments in the labour market, overall GDP growth picked up over 2015, despite the contraction in mining investment. The pace of lending to businesses has also picked up.
Inflation is quite low. Recent information has confirmed that growth in labour costs remains quite subdued. Given this, and with inflation also restrained elsewhere in the world, inflation in Australia is likely to remain low over the next year or two.
Given these conditions, it is appropriate for monetary policy to be accommodative. Low interest rates are supporting demand, while supervisory measures are working to emphasise prudent lending standards and so to contain risks in the housing market. Credit growth to households continues at a moderate pace, albeit with a changed composition between investors and owner-occupiers. The pace of growth in dwelling prices has moderated in Melbourne and Sydney and has remained mostly subdued in other cities.
The Australian dollar has appreciated somewhat recently. In part, this reflects some increase in commodity prices, but monetary developments elsewhere in the world have also played a role. Under present circumstances, an appreciating exchange rate could complicate the adjustment under way in the economy.
At today's meeting, the Board judged that there were reasonable prospects for continued growth in the economy, with inflation close to target. The Board therefore decided that the current setting of monetary policy remained appropriate.
Over the period ahead, new information should allow the Board to assess the outlook for inflation and whether the improvement in labour market conditions evident last year is continuing. Continued low inflation would provide scope for easier policy, should that be appropriate to lend support to demand.
</body></html>

House price growth moderating or subdued: RBA Governor Glenn Stevens' April 2016 statement

<html><body>
The RBA cash rate decision came out at 2.30 today with the decision to hold yet again. The bank's last move saw it go to 2 percent at the May 2015 meeting.
The bank says there is scope to cut if inflation remains low. The dollar dropped after poor trade figures today.
CoreLogic RP Data head of research Tim Lawless said with annual growth in Australia’s capital city dwelling values falling to the slowest pace in 31 months by the end of March 2016, the RBA is likely to be focussing on other aspects of the economic landscape in their interest rate deliberations.
"The higher Australian dollar, commodity prices, low inflation and global uncertainty were likely the primary discussion points during the Reserve Bank’s meeting today," he said.
"With some of the heat coming out of the housing market and inflation remaining low, the Reserve Bank has room to cut the cash rate later this year if they see a requirement to do so. 
"If we do see a lower cash rate later this year, chances are we won’t see the full rate cut passed on to mortgage rates due to the higher funding costs facing Australian lenders. Arguably, a cash rate cut wouldn’t have the same stimulatory effect on the housing market as what we saw from previous rate cuts in February and May last year."
LJ Hooker chief executive officer Grant Harrod, said today’s announcement to keep rates on hold was unsurprising even given the recent spike in the Australian dollar, however, he does not rule out a mid or late year reduction if needed. 
“The East Coast is holding up and we are not seeing any significant change in Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane where listings remain tight,’’ Mr Harrod said.
“Good properties in highly sought after areas are selling well above their reserve or anticipated price, even though there is some indication the number of buyers may be lessening.
“It is however a different story in Western Australia where the market is in favour of buyers with an array of properties for sale to choose.”
</body></html>

RBA April 2016 meeting holds rates at 2 percent

<html><body>
The Australian columnist Alan Kohler says to a large extent the 2016 Federal will be all about house prices, which he suggests "is both good and bad."
He says the Reserve Bank is out of ideas as "cutting interest rates to lower the dollar just sends house prices higher."
Instead Kohler says its the politicians’ turn to do something. 
The Labor Party wants to limit negative gearing to new construction, the Coalition wants to reintroduce the Australian Building and Construction Commission.
The policies, he suggests are seeking to address high property prices and  high wages. 
"Workers have to be paid a lot to service their housing debt; without overpriced houses, Australian wages wouldn’t have to be so high," he notes.
"Labor has a tricky selling task selling its negative gearing policy because it is trying to argue that the change will make housing more affordable, but won’t result in house prices falling. 
"So Labor leader Bill Shorten has to assert that it will merely lower the rate of increase in house prices.
"Similarly, the Coalition’s policy of cracking down on the construction union and bringing back that ABCC, which is the potential trigger for the double dissolution election and therefore its key reason, is an attempt to reduce the cost of building apartments and thereby reduce Australia’s high cost structure."
Kohler suggests despite it being discussed politically as an ideological anti-union crusade, "which it is to some extent", at a practical level it’s just an attempt to bring down Australia’s high cost of housing. 
"The dividing point between union and non-union construction is three storeys: anything above that height must involve the CFMEU.
"Research commissioned by Master Builders Australia has found that the difference in labour cost between four storeys and two storeys is 24 percent."
</body></html>

Politicians time to take the reins with RBA out of ideas: Alan Kohler

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVER
Growth remains solid, supported by the services sectors, but it is still insufficient to lift inflation. The recent lift in the AUD could start to weigh on services exports, which have been a key source of recent growth.
We expect the RBA to be on hold, but to keep its easing bias, as it seeks to put downward pressure on the AUD.
Rising AUD is an increasing problem
The RBA is expected to be on hold next week. Domestic growth is solid, commodity prices have lifted, and global markets have stabilised. There is no pressing need to cut. The more interesting question is whether the easing phase is done?
On the one hand, the rebalancing act is well underway, demand in the non-mining sectors is solid and the unemployment rate appears to be past its peak. This argues for the RBA to remain on hold. On the other hand, underlying inflation is at the bottom edge of the RBA’s 2-3 percent target band and, although demand has lifted, so far, the pickup is insufficient to drive a rise in inflation. At the same time, lower global inflation and interest rates have been driving the AUD higher, which is set to weigh further on local inflation and potentially on growth. This argues for a further cut at some point.
Given HSBC’s view that global inflation and rates will stay low for some time yet, our central case is that the RBA will cut further. Otherwise, the AUD could rise further, putting more downward pressure on inflation and local growth. Our central case has the RBA delivering a 25bp cut in Q2, following the next CPI print, which we expect will show underlying inflation dropping below the bottom edge of the RBA’s 2-3 percent target band. Importantly, the RBA’s reaction function has historically been very much driven by the quarterly CPI prints. Combine this with a labour market where spare capacity is still weighing on wages growth and an AUD that is rising and we expect the central bank may need to cut further to keep inflation on target.
However, there is a clear risk that the RBA has a higher tolerance for low inflation than we expect. It is also possible that near-term domestic indicators will lift, following the apparent end of the recent bout of financial turbulence. In addition, the timing of a potential cut is complicated by local political developments. Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s recent announcement that the federal budget will be a week earlier than usual, on 3 May, means that it will be on the RBA’s May meeting day, making a cut on that day less likely. There is also a possibility (not yet confirmed) of an early election, on 2 July, which could make a Q2 cut less likely. We stick by our view that a further cut will  be needed, but acknowledge that the likelihood of a Q2 cut is about 50:50, in our view.
<a href="/images/2016/04/4/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-04%20at%209.50.05%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/4/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-04%20at%209.50.05%20AM.png" alt="">
 
Growth has been solid as the ‘rebalancing act’ continues
The domestic indicators continue to suggest that the rebalancing of growth towards the non mining sectors is underway. Although the fall in mining investment has been massive drag on GDP growth, it has been more than offset by a strong pick-up in other factors. The significant fall in mining investment weighed on the economy over 2015, such that overall business investment subtracted around 2ppts from GDP over the year. However, the lift in other factors, including exports of resources and services, and household consumption, was sufficient to see GDP growth running at 3.0 percent y-o-y (an upside surprise to the market and RBA) (Chart 1).
The upside surprise to GDP growth was mostly driven by stronger-than-expected growth in household consumption, as the household saving rate dropped by a sharp 1.5ppts over the past year (Chart 2). Given the recent levelling out in housing prices (since August 2015) and the recent financial market turbulence, we do not expect further near-term falls in the saving rate, so we see household consumption growth slowing in the first half of 2016, in line with continued weak growth in household disposable incomes.
At the same time, other recent timely indicators also suggest that growth has slowed into the first quarter of 2016. Surveyed business conditions have pulled back from the high levels reached in the latter part of 2015, albeit they still imply solid growth rates (Chart 3). The official labour market numbers have also been weaker in recent months, albeit part of the retracement reflects measurement issues following exceptionally rapid reported jobs growth in late 2015 (Chart 4).
<a href="/images/2016/04/4/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-04%20at%209.52.30%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/4/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-04%20at%209.52.30%20AM.png" alt="">
 
<a href="/images/2016/04/4/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-04%20at%209.53.29%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/4/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-04%20at%209.53.29%20AM.png" alt="">
 
Recent lift in the AUD is worrisome
A key challenge the RBA faces is not that the domestic economy is not holding up well, but that local growth is insufficient to lift inflation and that weak conditions and lower interest rates in the rest of the world are putting upward pressure on the AUD. This is particularly important because the lower AUD has been a key driver of the rebalancing of Australia’s growth away from mining.
Exports of services, including tourism and education, have moved from being a significant drag on GDP growth (of around 0.75ppts four years ago) when the AUD was well above USD parity, to being a solid contributor to GDP growth more recently (0.5ppts over the past year) (Chart 5).
An increase in the AUD could weigh on growth in these sectors, which are expected to be the next drivers of Australia’s growth. In short, the response of the AUD to relative global interest rates may be becoming an increasing problem for the RBA. For more on this topic see Downunder Digest: Services exports and the AUD, 30 March 2016.
Although part of the increase in the AUD clearly reflects that commodity prices have rallied over the past month, our estimates suggest that the pick-up in the AUD has been sharper than is implied just by the rise in commodity prices (Chart 6). To a large degree, we see this as reflecting interest rate differentials, with more dovish recent commentary from the Federal Reserve’s Janet Yellen, contributing to the market’s view that the rise in US rates is likely to be slow.
The higher AUD is also set to weigh further on the inflation outlook. As at the RBA’s last set of forecasts (on 4 February 2016) the AUD was at USD0.72. The 7 percent rise since then would be expected to knock 0.1-0.2ppts off the RBA’s CPI forecasts, unless it also lifts its own domestic growth projections to offset this impact via an expected rise in domestic inflation.
To cut or not to cut, that is the question
The RBA has considerable reluctance to consider cutting further and understandably so. The cash rate is already at a record low of 2.00 percent, growth is solid and the unemployment rate appears to be past its peak. However, underlying inflation is at the bottom edge of its 2-3 percent band and the spare capacity in the labour market is keeping wages pressures subdued, which means domestic inflation is set to stay low. At the same time, the AUD has picked up, which is set to push imported inflation lower and could weigh on the new growth drivers: tourism and education exports. Much of the problem is that the rest of the world has much lower inflation and lower interest rates. If the RBA maintains its resolve, the AUD could increase further, slowing growth and weakening inflation. On balance, we expect the RBA may need to cut further.
Timing, tactics and politics
For the RBA the most common trigger for a cut is the quarterly inflation print, with the Q1 numbers due to be published on 27 April. Our central case is that the RBA’s underlying measures (the trimmed mean and weighted median) will drop below the bottom edge of the RBA’s target band in y-o-y terms. If this is the case and the unemployment rate remains well above full employment while the AUD is still higher, then the case for a cut in May would be strong.
However, the recent announcement by Prime Minister Turnbull that the annual federal budget will be handed down a week earlier than usual, on 3 May, now means that the budget will arrive on the RBA’s board meeting day. This reduces the likelihood of a cut on that day, as the central bank is unlikely to consider cutting while the government is delivering the budget.
It is also worth keeping in mind that the reason Prime Minister Turnbull has moved the budget forward is to allow him the option of calling an early election on 2 July. The prime minister is required by law to call an election before 17 January 2017 and had previously stated that an election was likely in September or October 2016. However, for political reasons, Prime Minister Turnbull is considering dissolving both houses of parliament and calling an early election on 2 July. If he were to call an early election (which is not a foregone conclusion), this could also reduce the likelihood of a further cut in rates in June or July (although it does not rule it out).
In short, irrespective of the economic numbers, a Q2 cut is looking less likely than previously for tactical reasons associated with politics. Saying this, a weak enough set of economic indicators would mean the RBA would cut anyway, despite the possible political implications.
We still expect a cut around mid-year but acknowledge that the likelihood of a cut in Q2 is now 50:50, in our view, partly due to these political possibilities.
 
<a href="https://www.about.hsbc.com.au/hsbc-in-australia/management-team" target="_blank">PAUL BLOXHAM</a> IS CHIEF ECONOMIST (AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND) FOR HSBC. 
</body></html>

Interest Rates

Editor's Picks

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News

Interest Rates

Editor's Picks

Receive the latest news stories to your inbox

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News