A landmark former orphanage site in Surrey Hills could be transformed into a new residential community under plans lodged by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/antipodean-land-developments">Antipodean Land Developments</a> that would deliver 76 apartments and townhouses while restoring some of the suburb's most significant heritage buildings.

The burgeoninng Melbourne-based developer has submitted plans for the 9,158 sqm site at 1 Kent Road and 24 Durham Road, home to the former St Joseph's Home for Destitute Children, a historic institutional complex dating back to the late 19th century. The proposal seeks to adaptively reuse several heritage buildings while introducing two new four-storey residential buildings set within extensive landscaped grounds.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/woods-bagot">Woods Bagot</a> and Kerstin Thompson Architects, the project has been conceived as a contemporary residential village embedded within a restored heritage precinct. The development team describes the design approach as "The Village in the Garden," with new buildings positioned among mature landscaping by OCULUS and significant heritage structures.

<img alt="First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="44ec8c1b-c0b6-44ae-859e-5811b3e6a023" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Untitled%20design%20%281%29.png?VersionId=p.p1_KFh4iQoV4nisdnPfQBAsWNi7m79" />

The proposal would deliver 76 dwellings comprising a mix of apartments and duplex-style residences, significantly increasing housing supply on one of the largest privately held residential landholdings in Surrey Hills. The development includes 127 car spaces, 24 bicycle spaces and more than 1,000 sqm of communal amenity, with the existing chapel building earmarked for conversion into resident facilities.

According to the planning submission, the project centres on the restoration and adaptive reuse of the site's most significant heritage assets, including the original c.1889 St Joseph's building, the chapel designed by architect Augustus Andrew Fritsch, and the historic brick perimeter walls and entry gates. The proposal also incorporates the retention of other contributory buildings including the former infirmary and school building.

Tract Consultants, in the planning report accompanying the application, said the scheme had been shaped through extensive heritage analysis and design development.

"The shared vision for the Site by the project team has culminated in a scheme which successfully breathes life back into a historic site while delivering upon the objectives of Victoria's Housing Statement in a carefully curated and contextually responsive manner."

<img alt="First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7263b7d8-95ea-400f-9531-6ca7d22c3c33" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Untitled%20design%20%282%29.png?VersionId=4cR1tiWOsDpgxEOwZi5vVFcyvvOsYkIE" />

The proposal is being assessed under Victoria's Significant Residential Development with Affordable Housing pathway. As part of the application, three per cent of the project's residential development cost would be contributed to the Social Housing Growth Fund. The development would also provide a diverse mix of one, two and three-bedroom residences targeting a broader range of buyers than typically found in Surrey Hills' detached housing market.

Sustainability initiatives include an anticipated 66 per cent BESS score, natural cross-ventilation to 80 per cent of apartments, 28 per cent deep soil landscaping and a canopy cover outcome exceeding local planning requirements. The proposal also sets aside more than 1,083 sqm for communal indoor and outdoor resident amenity spaces.

<img alt="First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="33fad46f-fe26-4d0a-acfd-6b776e1c6a3d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Untitled%20design.png?VersionId=D9F6WVSyYCtGvSUmith35LRp6R7PQkw_" />

Planning documents describe the property as one of the largest underutilised residential sites in Surrey Hills, arguing it presents a rare opportunity to introduce "missing middle" housing in an established inner-eastern suburb while preserving and revitalising a significant heritage precinct.

Antipodean Land Developments has built a reputation for design-focused residential projects across Melbourne, particularly in the medium-density sector. Previous developments include Neighbourhood in Brunswick East, delivered with Breathe Architecture, and Balfe Park Lane, designed by Kerstin Thompson Architects.

They've been very active in site acquisition as they build out their future development pipeline. They recently launched Thornubury House, 45 apartments above a mix of commercial, retail, and food and beverage tenancies, and have plans for a boutique project in Fitzroy and another <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/vic/antipodean-plan-apartments-for-deepdenes-missing-middle-on-whitehorse-road">"missing middle" project</a> on Deepdene's Whitehorse Road.

Joel Robinson

First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills

Developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/auyin-property-development">Auyin</a> is the latest to turn to the Victorian Government's Development Facilitation Program in an effort to secure approval for its long-planned, mixed-use project in Elsternwick.

In 2018, Auyin lodged plans with Glen Eira City Council for a 14-storey building, however Council approved a reduced eight-storey scheme. A subsequent VCAT appeal in 2019 upheld the eight-storey height limit.

The project was later amended to nine storeys, but Auyin is now seeking to revive something closer to its original vision. The developer argues that the planning context has evolved significantly over the past decade, particularly within the Elsternwick Activity Centre, where higher-density development has increasingly been encouraged along Glen Huntly Road.

The proposal would transform the 1,239 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/7-12-horne-street-elsternwick-vic-3185">7-15 Horne Street</a>, opposite Elsternwick Railway Station, into a 13-storey residential and retail development designed by CBG Architects, with 40 apartments

The site currently comprises three commercial properties.

<img alt="First look: 13-storey mixed-use tower planned for Elsternwick activity centre" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="5f465dd4-509b-4082-a669-0253b313914b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/elsternwick%20podium.png?VersionId=72frWi0SmQ5AVJ3ARRhX5ILUYObhTm7x" />

The proposed apartment mix comprises 25 two-bedroom and 15 three-bedroom residences above 200 sqm of retail space at ground level. Residents would have access to a 90 sqm wellness facility, a 351 sqm communal indoor and outdoor terrace on the third level, and extensive landscaped areas throughout the development. A publicly accessible 135 sqm plaza would be created on the north-east corner of the site, providing seating, landscaping, and a new gathering space adjoining Horne Street.

The design adopts a four-storey podium that references the finer-grain character of the surrounding streetscape, with the upper tower recessed behind generous setbacks on all boundaries.

<img alt="First look: 13-storey mixed-use tower planned for Elsternwick activity centre" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e637e763-2abc-4c34-a0aa-5c7ad36fae18" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/elsternwick%20open.png?VersionId=J1AoOpZgTyaF.KeeFSX6lMjEScX8KKRi" />

A key element of the proposal is the reconfiguration and widening of the surrounding laneways. Vehicle access would be retained from Lois Lane, with upgraded pedestrian connections linking Ross Street and Horne Street. The development would provide 58 residential car spaces, two retail car spaces, and 52 bicycle spaces across two basement levels and ground-floor facilities.

Architecturally, the building draws inspiration from the established character of Elsternwick Village. The façade combines dark charcoal brickwork, textured concrete, bronze-toned metal detailing, and extensive planting integrated into podium and tower levels. The design also incorporates a chamfered corner treatment and publicly accessible plaza intended to strengthen pedestrian activity around the station precinct.

Elsternwick's last new development completion was&nbsp;EVA Elsternwick by Pitard late last year. <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/milieu-property">Milieu</a> is working away on its nature-led neighbourhood, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/elsternwick-gardens-by-milieu-8-gordon-street-elsternwick-vic-3185">Elsternwick Gardens</a>, on Gordon Street, with its first stage expected to complete next year.

First look: Auyin seeks mixed-use apartment project in growing Elsternwick Activity Centre

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/otium-parkdale-123-125-como-parade-east-parkdale-vic-3195">Otium Parkdale</a>, the 13-residence boutique development by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/huxtable-property">Huxtable Property</a>, has entered its final stages of delivery, with completion expected within the coming month and more than half of the residences sold.

The Como Parade East project is nearing the finish line at a time when opportunities to purchase new apartments in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/parkdale-vic-3195">Parkdale</a> remain exceptionally limited. Fewer than 10 per cent of dwellings in the bayside suburb are apartments, making developments like Otium a relatively rare addition to a market traditionally dominated by detached housing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134974 project_image_fid=5427]

The three-level development comprises 13 residences, including ten two-bedroom apartments and three larger three-bedroom homes, all positioned above a secure basement car park.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/almeida-architects">Almeida Architects</a> with a strong connection to its coastal surroundings, Otium combines red brick, exposed concrete and dark metal detailing with integrated landscaping and greenery. Expansive glazing, generous balconies and terraces have been incorporated throughout the design to maximise natural light and reinforce indoor-outdoor living.

Inside, the residences feature engineered European oak flooring, natural and reconstituted stone benchtops, Bosch kitchen appliances, ducted heating and cooling, lift access and secure entry systems. The larger three-bedroom residences on the upper level have been designed with house-like proportions, while the two-bedroom apartments prioritise functionality, flexibility and low-maintenance living.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134974 project_image_fid=5421]

The project is now in its final stages, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/labco">Labco</a> completing the remaining landscaping and external finishing works following the completion of the residences' interiors.

Otium's location within the heart of Parkdale continues to underpin its appeal. Residents will be just steps from local cafés, restaurants, shops and the newly elevated Parkdale Station, while the beach is less than a kilometre away.

With the project tracking ahead of schedule, buyers can currently secure a residence with a five per cent deposit and benefit from settlement terms of up to eight months. The advanced stage of construction also provides buyers with the opportunity to walk through the near-complete residences and experience the quality and finishes firsthand ahead of completion.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134974]

Otium Parkdale enters final month before completion as rare apartment opportunity nears sellout

A new boutique apartment development is entering the market in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/chermside-qld-4032">Chermside</a>, with Brisbane-based developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/ausdev">Ausdev</a> bringing 33 residences to a well-connected pocket of Brisbane's north.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/parkdrive-apartments-chermside-25-sammells-drive-chermside-qld-4032">Parkdrive Apartments</a>, at 25 Sammells Drive, will comprise a mix of one- and two-bedroom residences positioned within walking distance of Westfield Chermside, The Prince Charles Hospital, and Bradbury Park.

Established in 1989, Ausdev has a long-standing presence across both development and construction, with Parkdrive Apartments representing its latest residential project in Brisbane's northern suburbs.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152125 project_image_fid=363778]

The development has been designed around open-plan living and natural light, with residences featuring stone benchtops, timber cabinetry, BOSCH appliances, and private balconies that extend the living areas outdoors.

Kitchens are positioned as the centrepiece of the homes, incorporating natural material palettes and integrated appliances, while bathrooms have been designed with a focus on functionality and understated finishes.

Residents will have access to a communal barbecue and entertaining area on Level 3, providing shared outdoor space within the development. Secure parking and lift access are also incorporated into the building.

The project will deliver a limited collection of 33 apartments, with one-bedroom residences priced from $749,000.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152125 project_image_fid=363782]

Beyond the building itself, the location places residents within easy reach of several of Chermside's key amenities. Bradbury Park is around 350 metres away, while Westfield Chermside is approximately 1.3 kilometres from the site. The Prince Charles Hospital is located within 750 metres, and the Chermside Bus Interchange is around 1.5 kilometres away, providing connections across Brisbane.

Parkdrive Apartments adds to the growing residential pipeline in Chermside, a suburb that continues to evolve as a major retail, healthcare, and transport hub for Brisbane's north.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152125]

Ausdev introduces boutique Parkdrive Apartments to Chermside's growing centre

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/skymark-group">Skymark</a>'s boutique Cronulla development Solis has secured a 10-year Latent Defects Insurance policy through Resilience Insurance, providing buyers of the 16-residence building on Ewos Parade with structural and waterproofing protection that extends a decade beyond the building's completion.

Currently under construction and due for completion in late 2027, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/solis-cronulla-8-ewos-parade-cronulla-nsw-2230">Solis</a> is one of a small number of new developments in the Sutherland Shire to carry Resilience LDI coverage, a distinction that carries increasing weight as buyer confidence in the off-the-plan sector continues to be shaped by how developers stand behind their product.

Latent Defects Insurance, which entered the Australian market in 2022 when Resilience Insurance was approved to offer the cover, protects buyers against major structural or waterproofing defects for ten years post-completion. Unlike traditional statutory warranties, it operates as a first-resort policy, if a covered defect arises, the insurer responds directly, without the buyer needing to pursue the builder or developer through a lengthy claims process.

Resilience Insurance CEO Corey Nugent has noted that the product addresses something fundamental to the new apartment market.

"The overarching feedback from prospective buyers in the new development space is that they want more confidence and assurances around the quality of the build," Nugent says.

"Resilience Insurance Latent Defects Insurance not only gives them complete peace of mind for 10 years, but it shows the developer they are buying from is standing by their product."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150499 project_image_fid=370898]

For Solis, the Resilience LDI policy adds a meaningful layer of accountability to an already considered project. The development comprises nine two-bedroom and seven three-bedroom residences, including one dual-level three-bedroom apartment, across a five-storey building on Ewos Parade, positioned between Shelly Beach and South Cronulla.

Garden apartments connect directly to private landscaped courtyards, while upper-level homes capture beach views to the east from level four and above.&nbsp;

All 16 residences include at least one balcony or courtyard, and select apartments on the upper floors feature bar areas and secondary flexible living spaces.

Hiba Sander, Managing Director of Skymark, says Solis offers a rare balance, nestled between the quiet beauty of secluded beaches and the lively charm of South Cronulla's esplanade.

"It's a place to choose your pace and live gracefully, seaside'," Sander says.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150499 project_image_fid=370900]

The architecture, designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ida-design-group">IDA Design Group</a>'s Michael Trinh, draws from the natural erosion patterns of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/cronulla-nsw-2230">Cronulla</a>'s sandstone headlands, translating the organic forms of the coastline into soft curves, pavilion-style massing, and a material palette chosen for longevity in a salt-tinged environment.&nbsp;

Textured natural stone, soft renders, and timber-look battens reference the tones of the surrounding cliffs, while the building has been oriented to maximise natural light and passive ventilation, with primary living spaces facing north and east to capture morning sun and sea breezes.

"At Solis, our aim was to create architecture that feels quietly confident, grounded in natural materials like stone and timber, and elevated by light and landscape," Trinh says.&nbsp;

"The buildings are designed to sit gently within their coastal surrounds, with expansive glazing and abundant greenery creating a seamless dialogue between inside and out."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150499 project_image_fid=370897]

Interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/hot-black">Hot Black</a> carry the same material language through to every room. Kitchens feature integrated Gaggenau appliances, sculpted stone benchtops, and Lo &amp; Co joinery, while bathrooms feature natural stone, timber, and brushed metal finishes.&nbsp;

Hot Black Founder and Design Director Sophie Safrin describes the intent as one of considered restraint: "At Solis, every detail has been thoughtfully considered to create a timeless coastal retreat, calm, refined, and effortlessly liveable. From natural finishes to seamless indoor-outdoor flow, Solis offers a quiet elegance that's deeply connected to its surroundings.

The landscape, designed by Julian Brady of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/sitedesignstudios">Site Design Studios</a>, treats green space as an integral part of the resident experience rather than an afterthought.&nbsp;

"Gentle curves and layered native plantings mirror the ebb and flow of the ocean," Julian Brady says, "creating a serene connection between architecture and place."&nbsp;

Coco Republic has provided bespoke furniture packages tailored to the project's coastal palette.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150499 project_image_fid=370899]

Skymark has an established track record in the Sutherland Shire, with a portfolio spanning Cronulla, Woolooware and Burraneer that includes Isla, Sylva, Bask, Shells, Sula and Mist. Securing LDI on Solis reflects a broader shift in how the developer is positioning its buildings to buyers, at a time when Resilience Insurance expects the policy to become mandatory in New South Wales by 2028.

Sales at Solis are launching soon through Ray White Projects, with an official event scheduled for 11 June. Enquire for more information.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150499]

Skymark takes out 10-year Resilience Insurance LDI at Solis Cronulla

Income

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Home loan arrears are just beginning to creep a bit higher on weak income growth. So reports the Commonwealth Bank (ASX: CBA) in its trading update. 
<div class="separator"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Pmu1pNOxlig/WvI_Z6QG82I/AAAAAAAAp6k/BOUkDZcbQ1MFLXlP6aL2Pe5dtLBJFaXBwCLcBGAs/s1600/CBA.jpg"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Pmu1pNOxlig/WvI_Z6QG82I/AAAAAAAAp6k/BOUkDZcbQ1MFLXlP6aL2Pe5dtLBJFaXBwCLcBGAs/s640/CBA.jpg" width="640" height="374" data-original-height="505" data-original-width="863"></a></div>
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Source: ASX 
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<div>The market was unhappy with the trimmed unaudited cash profit of $2.35 million. The result is 2.1 per cent lower than the unaudited figure for the prior year's corresponding period. </div>
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<div>Share price latest: down -3.4 per cent to $71, having bounced off the intraday lows at $70.80.</div>
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<div>Our latest report for funds and institutional investors <a href="https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/3-immediate-implications-of-tighter-lending-standards" target="_blank">Chemical Change</a> discusses the downside risks eventuating from a combination of trimmed lending volumes, a potential loss of market share, compressed margins, and an uptick in home loan arrears. </div>
<div> </div>
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Weak income growth triggering higher arrears: Pete Wargent

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GUEST OBSERVATION
In all Australia’s capital cities, average share-house rents in the inner suburbs (where <a href="https://theconversation.com/rapid-growth-is-widening-melbournes-social-and-economic-divide-117244" target="_blank">jobs are concentrated</a>) leave people without enough money for food and other basics, new research shows.
This research, for a forthcoming report by the authors, proves there is a rental housing crisis for people on Newstart (and other low-income earners) everywhere in Australia.
The analysis was based on Real Estate Institute of Australia (REIA) <a href="https://reia.asn.au/product-category/individual-data-purchase/" target="_blank">data</a>, using common indicators such as housing affordability and stress. Housing stress for people on low incomes is <a href="https://www.ahuri.edu.au/policy/ahuri-briefs/3040-indicator#targetText=The%20'30'%20in%20the%2030,to%20be%20in%20housing%20stress." target="_blank">defined</a> as when rent costs more than 30% of their income.
For example, the dataset for Victoria (the third-most-expensive rental market and broadly representative of the nation) shows rent for a share house in Melbourne averages 70% of income for a single person receiving <a href="https://www.humanservices.gov.au/individuals/services/centrelink/newstart-allowance/how-much-you-can-get" target="_blank">Newstart</a> (A$277.50 per week) and <a href="https://www.humanservices.gov.au/individuals/services/centrelink/rent-assistance" target="_blank">Commonwealth Rent Assistance</a> (A$45.74 per week). This leaves people with A$98 a week to live on. That’s less than half the <a href="http://unsworks.unsw.edu.au/fapi/datastream/unsworks:46141/binaaacbcf3-915f-40bc-a70f-2052746ab643?view=true" target="_blank">A$216 a week</a> that experts calculate is a healthy base level of income for a single unemployed person.
After paying rent, people on Newstart have just A$14 a day to cover food, utilities and the costs of job seeking such as mobile phone plans and travel cards (<a href="https://www.ptv.vic.gov.au/tickets/fares/metropolitan-fares/" target="_blank">A$4.40 a day in Melbourne</a>).
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292976/original/file-20190918-187957-hzokjt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292976/original/file-20190918-187957-hzokjt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Author analysis based on REIV data, Author provided
While it was assumed rent for people on low incomes eats up much of their benefits, this analysis shows just how bad the situation has become in all capital cities. It is worst in Sydney. As the chart below shows, median weekly rent in Sydney is A$550, which when split between two renters amounts to A$275 each. This leaves a renter on Newstart with the princely sum of just A$48.24 a week – A$6.89 a day – to live on.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293088/original/file-20190918-187991-14slgpp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293088/original/file-20190918-187991-14slgpp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Affordable rent points compared to median rents in capital cities. Author analysis using REIV data, Author provided
What about living in cheaper areas?
Another worrying aspect of the data is it suggests high rents are compelling people on Newstart payments to relocate from inner cities to the outer suburbs and satellite towns with worse labour markets and higher transport costs. And even in these towns, the data paint a bleak picture.
In Victorian regional cities like Bendigo and Ballarat the rent for sharers exceeds the commonly accepted 30% benchmark for housing stress. Here they would be paying A$130 a week – almost half their Newstart payments. With Rent Assistance, that would leave them with A$192 – still A$24 less than the healthy benchmark.
There are only two regions in all of Australia where single unemployed people would have any hope of meeting rents. These are northern Tasmania and outer Hobart, where the <a href="https://www.rdatasmania.org.au/news/tasmania-ranks-high-in-youth-unemployment-hotspots/" target="_blank">youth unemployment rate is 16%</a>. You can add about another <a href="http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=22954" target="_blank">10 points to the unemployment rate</a> to get a real sense of the challenges of getting jobs in these places.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293089/original/file-20190918-187935-wq63n8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293089/original/file-20190918-187935-wq63n8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Affordable rent points compared to median rents for regions. Author analysis using REIV data, Author provided
Benefit increases are essential
So what is affordable for people on Newstart? For single people receiving Newstart and <a href="https://www.humanservices.gov.au/individuals/services/centrelink/rent-assistance" target="_blank">Rent Assistance</a>, share-house rents would have to be A$87.
While the table below shows A$97, that would be the affordable rent if maximum Rent Assistance were paid. But it does not actually kick in until <a href="https://www.humanservices.gov.au/individuals/services/centrelink/rent-assistance/eligibility-payment-rates/how-much-you-can-get" target="_blank">weekly rent exceeds A$61</a>. So low-rent places do not attract as much of a subsidy from Rent Assistance as higher-rent properties.
This points to the need for Rent Assistance to kick in at a lower income point. It also needs to be increased to avoid housing stress.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293091/original/file-20190918-187985-ykep1q.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293091/original/file-20190918-187985-ykep1q.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Author provided
The federal government’s response to this kind of evidence always relies on an argument that Newstart is intended as a <a href="https://www.financeminister.gov.au/transcript/2019/07/22/abc-radio-%E2%80%93-am" target="_blank">“transitional” payment</a>. The unemployed are told they should “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jul/29/unfunded-empathy-scott-morrison-pushes-back-on-growing-calls-to-lift-newstart-rate" target="_blank">get a job</a>”.
But it is very clear this is not as easy as it sounds. That is because there are increasing numbers of people on Newstart <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/200-000-australians-with-a-disability-struggling-to-get-by-on-newstart-report-20190916-p52rt6" target="_blank">with disabilities</a> and <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-09-25/mature-workers-on-newstart/10195296" target="_blank">over 55 years old</a> – the majority of <a href="https://theconversation.com/are-most-people-on-the-newstart-unemployment-benefit-for-a-short-or-long-time-120826" target="_blank">long-term unemployed</a> are now mature-age job seekers.
There are also <a href="https://theconversation.com/these-job-snob-claims-dont-match-the-evidence-121429" target="_blank">far more applicants than job vacancies</a>. It’s worse in regional areas where there are fewer jobs to begin with.
Many welfare agencies are preparing submissions to a <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Community_Affairs/Newstartrelatedpayments" target="_blank">Senate inquiry</a> into Newstart and related payments in time for the September 30 deadline. These submissions are expected to contain even more compelling analysis showing it is impossible to survive on Newstart.
The Australian Council of Social Service (<a href="https://www.acoss.org.au/about-us/" target="_blank">ACOSS</a>) and several other agencies are demanding that <a href="https://raisetherate.org.au/" target="_blank">Newstart be raised by at least A$75 a week</a>. Even this badly needed increase will not fully alleviate housing stress, which is the <a href="https://www.acoss.org.au/housing-homelessness/" target="_blank">main cause of homelessness among low-income people</a>.
Simone Casey, Research Associate, Future Social Service Institute, RMIT University
Liss Ralston, Urban Statistician, Centre for Urban Transitions, Swinburne University of Technology
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/city-share-house-rents-eat-up-most-of-newstart-leaving-less-than-100-a-week-to-live-on-123772" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

City share-house rents eat up most of Newstart, leaving less than $100 a week to live on

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/73841/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
As in many other countries, income inequality in Australia has grown over the past two decades.
At the same time, Australia is one of the most urbanised countries in the world, with more than 60 percent of the population concentrated in just six major cities. Incomes in these cities are very spatially segregated, with high and low earners concentrated in different suburbs. 
Do recent trends mean this joke is increasingly likely to be true?
In new research, I used census data to examine these patterns. Focusing on the incomes of men aged 25-54 in our six largest cities, I found that income inequality among men has grown substantially since 1991 – particularly during the 1990s. 
This has been associated with increases in the relative income gaps between different areas within the cities. The share of inequality associated with location has also increased over time – an indicator of increasing segregation. 
To the extent to which people draw on the resources of the people who live in their local area, this spatial segregation has potential implications for social cohesion and intergenerational inequality. There are also substantial differences across cities. Sydney was substantially more unequal than other cities over the whole period.
<h2>The census tells us the gap has widened</h2>
These results are based on detailed tabulations from the five censuses from 1991 to 2011. The focus on men aged 25-54 is partly for data availability reasons, but also permits a simpler focus on those income trends associated with wage growth and workforce-age income support payments. 
The research examines how incomes vary across the local areas in our six largest cities. These areas are defined using the Australian Bureau of Statistics “statistical local areas” (SLAs) designation. 
In Sydney and Melbourne, SLAs correspond closely to local government areas, while they are generally smaller areas in the other states. The income measure is the single census question on the person’s total income (before deducting taxes) – answered in categories. 
Statistical interpolation techniques are used to generate a smooth income distribution and to compensate for a change in the payments of income support between 1991 and 1996. More details can be found here.
The graph below shows trends in city-wide inequality since 1991. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/11/image-20170306-919-fd0169.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<h4><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/04/11/image-20170306-919-fd0169.png" alt=""></h4>
<h4>
Figure 1: City-wide inequality. Author's calculations from ABS Census data
</h4>
In each city, male income inequality grew substantially during the 1990s. It flattened out after 2001 (generally increasing slightly up to 2006, then falling back a little after the global financial crisis). In all years, incomes were substantially more unequal in Sydney than the other cities, with this gap widening over the period. 
In part, this reflects the larger size of Sydney. However, Sydney is now only slightly larger than Melbourne. Most of the gap is likely due to the high wages in parts of the financial services industry centred in Sydney. 
Within the sub-regions of each city, inequality also increased, following a similar pattern. However, the growth in income inequality within local areas was less than the overall growth in inequality. Corresponding to this, the gap between the average incomes in each region also increased. 
This is indicated in the graph below, which shows a measure of between-region inequality – the extent to which the average incomes in each area differ. Using the “GE(1)” measure of inequality, this more than doubled between 1991 and 2001. It then increased slightly up to 2006 and fell back slightly after the GFC.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/11/image-20170306-926-134dws8.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<h4><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/04/11/image-20170306-926-134dws8.png" alt=""></h4>
<div class="enlarge_hint">
Figure 2: Between-SLA inequality. Author's calculations from ABS Census data
</div>
The overall combination of these trends is that the share of city-level inequality associated with location has grown over the period. For the GE(1) measure, this share increased from about 15% to 18%. That is, spatial segregation between rich and poor has increased over time.
<h2>Are we segregating ourselves?</h2>
One simpler way of describing the spatial concentration of incomes is to consider the situation of the top 10% of Sydney men – those with annual pre-tax incomes of $141,000 or more in 2011. 
What fraction of these rich men lived in the low-income areas of Sydney? If we define low-income areas as the SLAs with the lowest average incomes and containing 20% of the male working-age population, then we find that only 5% of rich men lived in these areas in 2011. 
So while it is true that some rich men live in the areas that have low average incomes (and maybe they might meet poor men), they are four times less likely to do so than the average man (5% vs 20%). And this segregation has increased over time. Back in 1991, 6.2% (rather than 5%) of rich men lived in these poor regions.
The other cities are also segregated, though not quite as much as Sydney. Looking at the top 10% of earners in each city in 2011, the percentage of these who were in poor local areas was 5.6% in Melbourne and Brisbane, 5.9% in Adelaide, and around 9% in Canberra and Perth.
<h2>Dark shades of inequality</h2>
This data also allows us to consider which areas are more segregated or mixed. This is mapped below for Sydney and Melbourne.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/11/image-20170306-898-vhl1on.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<h4><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/04/11/image-20170306-898-vhl1on.png" alt=""></h4>
<div class="enlarge_hint"> Figure 3a: Within-SLA inequality in Sydney. Author's calculations from ABS Census data
</div>
<div class="enlarge_hint"> </div>
<div class="enlarge_hint"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/11/image-20170306-914-1kme7i3.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="enlarge_hint"> </div>
<div class="enlarge_hint"><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/04/11/image-20170306-914-1kme7i3.png" alt=""></div>
<h4>
Figure 3b: Within-SLA inequality in Melbourne. Author's calculations from ABS Census data
</h4>
The darker shades indicate local areas with more within-area inequality – though for small regions such as this, it is more appropriate to use a word with more positive connotations such as “heterogenous” or just “mixed”. The more mixed areas are generally those with higher average incomes (plus some areas with high ethnic heterogeneity). 
This is driven by the fact that most regions include at least some men with low incomes, but high-income men are unlikely to live in the more homogeneous outer suburbs.
The concentration of high-paying employment and the poor transport linkages of Australia’s major cities undoubtedly play a large part in driving this.
Bruce Bradbury is associate professor, Social Policy Research Centre, UNSW and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/bruce-bradbury-6437" target="_blank">here</a>.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

What did the rich man say to the poor man? Why spatial inequality in Australia is no joke

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GUEST OBSERVER
Job growth has been on the surge for a while now. And much of that surge makes sense:
Although China is squeezing Australia's income, it has had much less of an impact on our production growth, and it's the latter which drives jobs.
Even better, within the overall economy, the sectoral make up has seen greater strength in service sectors, which by and large are the key job generating industries in the nation.
Finally, a combination of weak wage growth and good productivity gains has made workers a more competitive option for businesses as they decide between more workers and more machines.
That backdrop is one which is increasingly favourable for the nation’s CBD office markets. The strength in the national job numbers had held true for white collar employment as well, but it had been failing to fully translate into bums on seats in CBD offices. Yet latest data have shown that gap narrowing pretty fast. However, this is very much a Sydney story. The picture remains mixed outside the Premier State, with Melbourne doing fine but Brisbane and Adelaide both labouring, and Perth continuing on its downward spiral. In fact, outside of NSW itself, the most notable good news story is that a pause in public sector cutbacks has seen Canberra’s market steady of late, though even there the overall job numbers are continuing to fall.
The big office markets of Sydney – Sydney CBD and North Sydney – are at sixes and sevens. Or to be more specific, overall jobs in those markets have grown at rates in the range of 6-7% in the last 12 months. In case you are wondering, the last time that the CBD was at that speed was ahead of the Sydney Olympics. Cathy Freeman hadn’t done a victory lap when the pace of growth in CBD office demand was last this strong.
While Sydney’s performance ranks alongside Ben Johnson’s at the Seoul Olympics in 1988 – and for potentially some of the same artificial reasons – Melbourne’s job gains have been strengthening, but remain more believable than those north of the Murray. To be clear, it’s not that white collar job gains in Melbourne’s CBD are accelerating by that much, but they are now clearly ahead of this market’s longer term trend rate of growth (which, by the way, is the strongest of any bar that of Canberra).
Brisbane – in contrast – remains very much more subdued. Or, at least, that’s true of the CBD, with the Near City market much healthier. To be clear, this isn’t an office market that is going backwards. 2014-15 marked a return to growth in Brisbane’s CBD office demand, and 2015-16 seems to have cemented that return to growth. Yet most rebounds show an initial turn of speed, and that simply isn’t the case in Brisbane.
A fast fading resources boom has torn strips out of the performance of the Perth market. That pain will eventually end, but – despite some green shoots – there’s not going to be much joy generated any time soon. It’s on the back foot already, China is still slowing, miners remain under a lot of financial pressure, and big construction projects are essentially in a run off phase, with very few new projects to follow in their wake.
Unlike much of the rest of Australia, Adelaide isn’t benefiting from measured strength in the finance sector.
Moreover, with 2016-17 shaping up as one of weakness in business services, it may be a few years before this particular market finally gets back in gear.
Canberra’s time in purgatory seems set to end. 2016 is, after all, an election year, and such years often trigger promises that usher in a greater need to for public service. These forecasts point to a return to happier times for the capital’s office demand.
James Allnutt is a Deloitte Access Economics director specialising in <a href="https://www.deloitteaccesseconomics.com.au" target="_blank">demographic, forecasts of state economies, and property demand</a>. 
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Job growth surge spills into CBD markets: Deloitte Access Economics

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Tourism in Australia is forecast to grow over next three years as cheaper oil and a weaker Australian dollar ensures a healthy stream of visitors to the country, according to Deloitte Access Economics' latest outlook for the sector.
The latest Tourism and Hotel Market Outlook has seen Deloitte Access Economics again raise its forecasts for international visitation, with trips to grow by 5.4% and visitor nights by 5.3% per annum over the next three years.
Macro conditions remain favourable for international travel generally, and for Australian tourism specifically -- oil prices fell 40% and the Australian dollar dropped 11% for the 2015 calendar year.
Last year saw China join the million visitors a year club.
"The fact this occurred a year earlier than expected reinforces the extraordinary pace at which the number of visitors from China is growing. Average visitation growth in 2015 was faster over the preceding five years. At this rate, Australia’s first ever two million visitors a year market may be closer than we thought," Lachlan Smirl, Deloitte Access Economics partner, said.
“The forecast for China alone is for another 285,000 visitors per year by 2018 – equivalent to an extra 10 return A380 services every week. When each of those people spends an average $7,300 in our domestic economy, it really adds up. At current prices, we would need to ship 160 tonnes of iron ore to China to get the same trade gain as an extra Chinese tourist choosing to holiday in Australia. It’s a simplistic comparison, but you can see where the opportunity lies.”
Australia’s appeal as a tourism destination is not limited to China. Three-quarters of Australian source markets grew above their five-year trend, and one-fourth of markets grew at twice that pace.
The US was the main rebounder with 50,000 more visitors, or 9% in 2015.
“The US is starting to look more like an economy with business–as–usual levels of economic growth, which is good for household incomes and outbound travel, as well as growth for US trading partners,” said Smirl.
Around 8% of Australia’s workforce, or about 1 million people, are directly or indirectly engaged in the tourism sector. So the positive effects of growth in tourism will be widespread.
Meanwhile, Australians are increasingly keen on travel in all forms: domestic trips, international trips, even day trips are all well above trend growth. With expenditure in each of these categories up 6-7%, Australians are spending a larger share of their incomes on travel. Almost half of this extra spending was associated with leisure travel, the report said.
The impact of a lower Australian dollar hasn’t been as clear-cut as some would expect, explained Smirl: “We haven’t seen a sharp substitution from international to domestic holiday travel. Australians are seeking out cheaper destinations, holidaying for shorter periods, or in part absorbing the higher prices. The picture is more nuanced, but a return to Australian’s love interest with local holiday favourites is evidently upon us.
However, travel to Western Australian mining centres is the exception, falling sharply. The local FIFO index is down 27% from its peak in January 2013 and at the current rate, will be back to pre-boom levels in two to three years.
"The challenge for Perth, and Western Australia in general, is to facilitate leisure tourism. Major projects underway, including Elizabeth Quay and Perth Stadium, will help to enhance the visitor experience over time,” said Smirl.
Other key highlights from H2 2015 included: 
- Though not a major contributor of volume, business travel from a number of South East Asian markets, including Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore, was down 25%
- Tasmania topped the growth league table, with international visitor numbers growing 19%, boosted by a 40% increase from China
- Victoria saw the second fastest growth in international visitor arrivals – 11% evenly split between corporate and leisure travel
- Visitation to the Northern Territory slid backwards for holiday travel, and was flat overall for 2015. Flight reductions were a contributory factor, although low seat utilisation was also at play 
- In South Australia, Cricket World Cup visitation in the first half of the year offset reductions in international services from Air Asia X, leaving international visitation up only 0.5% 
- Gold Coast Airport overtook Adelaide as Australia’s 5th fifth busiest international airport, and has the potential to become a mini-transit hub for international passengers travelling with Air Asia X 
- Tropical North Queensland also benefitted from peaks in the school holiday travel. Melbourne families are rediscovering the region with passenger volumes between Tullamarine and Cairns up 16% last year.
The outlook
Despite increasing levels of global economic uncertainty, tourism is poised to growth because of macro drivers, according to Smirl.
International visitor numbers are forecast to grow above five-year trend pace, increasing at an annual rate of 5.4% per year to December 2018. Asia will be responsible for 60% of this growth, with China alone responsible for 26%. The outlook suggests mixed fortunes for Australia’s legacy markets – New Zealand will contribute 10% of the additional nights, while mainland Europe will provide just 4%.
“With domestic travel conditions improving, our forecasts for domestic travel have been upwardly revised. Overnight visitor numbers are now forecast to grow 3.3% per year to December 2018. This is acknowledging Australians are keen to spend more of their budget on travel in all forms,” Smirl said.
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