<p>Just a few months after acquiring a prime Broadbeach site on the corner of First Avenue and Surf Parade, family-run developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/raptis">Raptis</a> has filed fresh plans for a new apartment development.</p>

<p>Raptis is seeking to deliver a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/17-19-first-avenue-broadbeach-qld-4217">29-storey tower with 73 apartments</a> on the 818 sqm site. It will be the developer's seventh project in the suburb, as they are approaching completion of The Sterling on George Avenue.</p>

<p>There will be a pool, barbecue and outdoor dining area, residents lounge and dining, sauna and steam room, gym, and a Yoga and Pilates studio.</p>

<p><img alt="Raptis" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b554da3f-7344-49aa-b1c9-44cf459af0d7" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-05%20at%2010.41.45%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=zzjWu1iO1wnuYv4EV4fyOyf5nSXjGYut" /></p>

<p>Raptis Joint Managing Director, Evan Raptis, says they remain&nbsp;committed to developing quality infill sites across the Gold Coast in the lead-up to the 2032 Brisbane Olympics.</p>

<p>"This project continues our long track record of delivery in Broadbeach, and we look forward to bringing another premium development to this thriving precinct."</p>

<p>The announcement follows strong delivery momentum for Raptis, with The Sterling Broadbeach nearing completion and construction well underway on the final stage of the Waterpoint community adjacent to Harbour Town. The developer's continued investment in the Gold Coast reflects confidence in the region's apartment market fundamentals, underpinned by sustained Southeast Queensland population growth.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The outlook for the region is further bolstered by infrastructure investment tied to the Brisbane 2032 Olympic Games, which is expected to drive continued economic and population growth across the SEQ corridor.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Subject to a favourable response from Gold Coast City Council, construction on the new First Avenue tower is targeted to commence before the end of 2026.&nbsp;</p>

<p><em>Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/it-s-all-in-the-family-four-decades-later-raptis-continues-to-shape-the-gold-coast-skyline">It’s all in the family: Four decades later, Raptis continues to shape the Gold Coast skyline</a></em></p>

<p><em>Read more: <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/raptis-secures-prime-surf-parade-site-for-next-broadbeach-apartment-development">Raptis secures prime Surf Parade site for next Broadbeach apartment development</a></em><br />
&nbsp;</p>


Gold Coast developer brings seventh Broadbeach project to market, targeting construction commencement before year end

Joel Robinson

First look: Raptis lodges plans for new 29-storey Broadbeach tower 

<p>Brisbane development veteran Kevin Seymour's Seymour Group is set to deepen its presence on one of Brisbane's most tightly held riverfront addresses, lodging revised plans for a luxury apartment development on Oxlade, just a few doors down from The Oxlade, which it completed in 2024.</p>

<p>The <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/70-72-oxlade-drive-new-farm-qld-4005">new project at 70-72 Oxlade Drive</a>, directly north of The Oxlade, will have 27 apartments across a seven-storey building&nbsp;overlooking the Brisbane River and Merthyr Park. It's a revision from a 2021-approved design.</p>

<p>Designed by bureau^proberts, the project has evolved from the previously approved 26-apartment scheme, introducing an additional penthouse level while maintaining a low-density, boutique character. The development will comprise 26 three-bedroom apartments and a single four-bedroom penthouse, supported by two basement levels with 86 car spaces and 34 bicycle spaces.</p>

<p>The architectural response is centred around two distinct building forms separated by a landscaped open-air atrium.&nbsp;"This dual composition captures and embraces Brisbane’s subtropical environment whilst breaking down built form and scale," the submission to the Brisbane City Council noted.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Seymour Group returns to Oxlade Drive with revised riverfront apartment plans in New Farm" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c12d84d0-bc11-4067-b46f-5bd2d786a34d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/new%20farm%20landscape.png?VersionId=YEPc2k5CAdh6aAPlu4uVpgZadh4MEfRd" /></p>

<p>A defining feature of the design is a deep landscaped void running through the centre of the building, creating what bureau^proberts describes as a "natural ravine" that enhances airflow, daylight penetration and resident amenity. The design report notes that the separation of the two building volumes is intended to maximise natural light, cross-ventilation and outlook while strengthening connections to the surrounding riverfront setting.</p>

<p>Curved balcony edges, integrated planting and extensive landscaping throughout the façade reinforce the subtropical design approach. The building's façade is softened by elevated gardens and planter beds, creating a green edge that complements the established landscape character of Oxlade Drive and neighbouring Merthyr Park.</p>

<p>New Farm has become one of Brisbane's most sought-after suburbs for developers delivering premium downsizer-focused apartments.</p>

<p>GRAYA has been particularly active in the precinct, completing both Chalk and York in recent years, while construction of Moray House, being delivered for Spyre, is now nearing completion. Architect-turned-developer Joe Adsett recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/arcilla-new-farm-by-joe-adsett-28-maxwell-street-new-farm-qld-4005">Arcilla on Maxwell Street</a>, an exclusive collection of just nine apartments.</p>


First look: Seymour Group returns to New Farm's Oxlade Drive with riverfront apartment plans

<p>A new residential tower will be the first piece of a broader mixed-use precinct set to reshape a prominent Newcastle West site, with local developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gwh">GWH</a> bringing its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/cambridge-quarter-newcastle-west-12-denison-street-newcastle-west-nsw-2302">Cambridge Quarter</a> vision to market.</p>

<p>The first release, Tempo, will introduce 87 apartments across a 24-storey tower, marking Stage 1 of the residential component of a larger urban regeneration project planned for the western end of Newcastle's city centre, encompassing the former Cambridge Hotel site.</p>

<p>Positioned on Denison Street, Tempo has been designed as the inaugural building within Cambridge Quarter, a precinct that will ultimately combine apartments, retail activation and revitalised public spaces including the revamping of the Cambridge Hotel.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135876 project_image_fid=368856]</p>

<p>The tower will comprise a mix of one, two and three-bedroom apartments, including layouts with multipurpose rooms, catering to a broad cross-section of owner-occupiers. Apartment sizes range from around 60 sqm to 192 sqm, with a number of residences oriented to capture views across Newcastle Harbour, the city skyline and coastline.</p>

<p>GWH has emphasised liveability in the design, with open-plan layouts extending to generous balconies and terraces. Residents will have a choice of two interior palettes, while specifications include engineered stone benchtops, SMEG appliances, full-height bathroom tiling and secure building access. Premium upgrade packages will also be available</p>

<p>Multiple rooftop resident retreats will provide communal outdoor space overlooking the harbour and city, offering an elevated amenity layer above the activity of the precinct below.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135876 project_image_fid=368851]</p>

<p>The broader Cambridge Quarter vision extends beyond the residential tower itself. Ground-level retail activation and landscaped public areas are planned throughout the precinct, creating a walkable neighbourhood environment connected to the surrounding renewal of Newcastle West. The Cambridge Hotel is also earmarked for future redevelopment into a family-friendly hospitality venue integrated with the new precinct.</p>

<p>The project is strategically positioned within walking distance of Newcastle Interchange, providing access to light rail, regional rail services and direct connections to Sydney. Residents will also be close to Honeysuckle, Newcastle Harbour and the city's beaches and coastal walkways.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135876 project_image_fid=368852]</p>

<p>For GWH, Cambridge Quarter represents one of its most significant Newcastle developments to date. The locally based developer, which has operated in the Hunter region since 1995, describes the project as a new chapter in the ongoing transformation of Newcastle West.</p>

<p>GWH Executive Director Jonathan Craig said the project had been shaped by a focus on creating lasting community connections.</p>

<p>"We take pride in creating places that last. Spaces where people feel connected, comfortable and a genuine sense of belonging," Craig said.</p>

<p>"Cambridge Quarter is something we are truly proud of, a place shaped by local knowledge, built with care and designed to be part of Newcastle's next chapter."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135876]</p>


GWH unveils first release at landmark Cambridge Quarter precinct in Newcastle West

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/ss-projects">S&amp;S Projects</a>,&nbsp;Rainbow Bay's busiest developer,&nbsp;has officially lodged plans for the largest development in its booming local portfolio, seeking approval for a further 88 apartments on Boundary Street.</p>

<p>The proposal&nbsp;at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/209-213-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">209–213 Boundary Street, Coolangatta</a>,&nbsp;marks the next chapter in the developer's transformation of the southern Gold Coast beachside precinct. It will be its fifth in the area, having already delivered Flow, Awaken and Esprit, while construction continues on the 38-apartment Radia. The new project would rise 57 metres above a consolidated 1,518 sqm site, on the same street as Radia and Esprit.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cottee-parker-architects">Cottee Parker</a>, the proposed development comprises 88 two and three-bedroom apartments across a contemporary podium-and-tower form that integrates extensive landscaping from street level through to the rooftop.</p>

<p>The tower would be delivered above a basement and multi-level podium accommodating resident and visitor parking, with the residential component commencing from level three. The design incorporates cascading planting throughout the façade, landscaped podium edges, and deep planting zones along the Boundary Street frontage.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: S&amp;S Projects lodges plans for 88-apartment wellness tower at Coolangatta's Boundary Street" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="677e6615-b5c0-4b6c-b4f9-efb14fcde1a6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/ss%20da%20pers.png?VersionId=YOnPKQm7IFXv0M5H326djEpxk80500Hi" /></p>

<p>A key feature of the development is its expansive rooftop wellness and recreation precinct. Plans reveal a resort-style pool deck, gymnasium, sauna, steam room, hot and cold plunge pools, rooftop terraces, barbecue areas and landscaped relaxation spaces positioned to capture views across the southern Gold Coast coastline.</p>

<p>The rooftop wellness focus builds on the vision S&amp;S Projects first outlined when it acquired the site for $20.25 million last year.</p>

<p>"We are taking every advantage to create a truly unique rooftop wellness experience with a natural feel for residents, offering stone features throughout and an underlying theme that emulates a botanical garden," S&amp;S Projects founder and director Paul Gedoun said at the time.</p>

<p>The proposal seeks a 57-metre building height, representing a 50 per cent uplift on the site's mapped 38-metre height limit. Planning documents argue the additional height is consistent with recently approved and emerging towers in the immediate Boundary Street and Rainbow Bay precinct.</p>

<p>Urbis, acting as planning consultant, said the development would provide "88 dwellings, comprising a mix of two and three-bedroom apartments, contributing to housing choice and supply within an established medium to high-rise coastal urban neighbourhood."</p>

<p>The scheme has undergone extensive pre-lodgement consultation with the City of Gold Coast, with the design refined following feedback relating to architectural expression, landscaping, traffic access and podium treatment.</p>

<p><img alt="S&amp;S" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0a2d70fd-62ac-4b83-97c6-b798fc1243dd" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-05%20at%209.16.31%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=yHmghUwKM3IVGpBktQU1mE.0Lpf3WimG" /></p>

<p>The architectural team is led by Brisbane-based Cottee Parker, one of Australia's most active residential design studios, with landscape architecture by Dunn + Moran. The consultant team also includes ADG Engineers, Windtech and Acoustic Works.</p>

<p>S&amp;S Projects has become one of the most influential private developers operating on the southern Gold Coast. Since entering Rainbow Bay in 2022, the company has assembled a portfolio exceeding $1 billion in end value, establishing itself as a key player in the area's evolution into a premium apartment destination. Pezet Matheson will again handle the sales for S&amp;S.</p>

<p>Coolangatta is entering another wave of apartment development, following the delivery of several prominent residential projects in recent years.</p>

<p>John Kearney's Immerse Projects will launch&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/kaiya-kirra-beach-5-haig-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Kaiya on Haig Street</a>&nbsp;soon, meanwhile, Palm Beach-based Sherpa Property Group is preparing to bring its debut Coolangatta development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-viver-87-griffith-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Flourish Viveré</a>, to market later this year, subject to approvals.</p>


First look: S&S Projects proposes 88-apartment wellness tower at Coolangatta's Boundary Street

<p>A landmark former orphanage site in Surrey Hills could be transformed into a new residential community under plans lodged by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/antipodean-land-developments">Antipodean Land Developments</a> that would deliver 76 apartments and townhouses while restoring some of the suburb's most significant heritage buildings.</p>

<p>The burgeoninng Melbourne-based developer has submitted plans for the 9,158 sqm site at 1 Kent Road and 24 Durham Road, home to the former St Joseph's Home for Destitute Children, a historic institutional complex dating back to the late 19th century. The proposal seeks to adaptively reuse several heritage buildings while introducing two new four-storey residential buildings set within extensive landscaped grounds.</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/woods-bagot">Woods Bagot</a> and Kerstin Thompson Architects, the project has been conceived as a contemporary residential village embedded within a restored heritage precinct. The development team describes the design approach as "The Village in the Garden," with new buildings positioned among mature landscaping by OCULUS and significant heritage structures.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="44ec8c1b-c0b6-44ae-859e-5811b3e6a023" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Untitled%20design%20%281%29.png?VersionId=p.p1_KFh4iQoV4nisdnPfQBAsWNi7m79" /></p>

<p>The proposal would deliver 76 dwellings comprising a mix of apartments and duplex-style residences, significantly increasing housing supply on one of the largest privately held residential landholdings in Surrey Hills. The development includes 127 car spaces, 24 bicycle spaces and more than 1,000 sqm of communal amenity, with the existing chapel building earmarked for conversion into resident facilities.</p>

<p>According to the planning submission, the project centres on the restoration and adaptive reuse of the site's most significant heritage assets, including the original c.1889 St Joseph's building, the chapel designed by architect Augustus Andrew Fritsch, and the historic brick perimeter walls and entry gates. The proposal also incorporates the retention of other contributory buildings including the former infirmary and school building.</p>

<p>Tract Consultants, in the planning report accompanying the application, said the scheme had been shaped through extensive heritage analysis and design development.</p>

<p>"The shared vision for the Site by the project team has culminated in a scheme which successfully breathes life back into a historic site while delivering upon the objectives of Victoria's Housing Statement in a carefully curated and contextually responsive manner."</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7263b7d8-95ea-400f-9531-6ca7d22c3c33" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Untitled%20design%20%282%29.png?VersionId=4cR1tiWOsDpgxEOwZi5vVFcyvvOsYkIE" /></p>

<p>The proposal is being assessed under Victoria's Significant Residential Development with Affordable Housing pathway. As part of the application, three per cent of the project's residential development cost would be contributed to the Social Housing Growth Fund. The development would also provide a diverse mix of one, two and three-bedroom residences targeting a broader range of buyers than typically found in Surrey Hills' detached housing market.</p>

<p>Sustainability initiatives include an anticipated 66 per cent BESS score, natural cross-ventilation to 80 per cent of apartments, 28 per cent deep soil landscaping and a canopy cover outcome exceeding local planning requirements. The proposal also sets aside more than 1,083 sqm for communal indoor and outdoor resident amenity spaces.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="33fad46f-fe26-4d0a-acfd-6b776e1c6a3d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Untitled%20design.png?VersionId=D9F6WVSyYCtGvSUmith35LRp6R7PQkw_" /></p>

<p>Planning documents describe the property as one of the largest underutilised residential sites in Surrey Hills, arguing it presents a rare opportunity to introduce "missing middle" housing in an established inner-eastern suburb while preserving and revitalising a significant heritage precinct.</p>

<p>Antipodean Land Developments has built a reputation for design-focused residential projects across Melbourne, particularly in the medium-density sector. Previous developments include Neighbourhood in Brunswick East, delivered with Breathe Architecture, and Balfe Park Lane, designed by Kerstin Thompson Architects.</p>

<p>They've been very active in site acquisition as they build out their future development pipeline. They recently launched Thornubury House, 45 apartments above a mix of commercial, retail, and food and beverage tenancies, and have plans for a boutique project in Fitzroy and another <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/vic/antipodean-plan-apartments-for-deepdenes-missing-middle-on-whitehorse-road">"missing middle" project</a> on Deepdene's Whitehorse Road.</p>


First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills

Immigration

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<p>GUEST OBSERVATION</p>
<p>Immigration policy will be a critical issue in forthcoming state (Victoria, NSW) and federal elections. The disproportionate impact of immigration on population growth and public infrastructure in Sydney and Melbourne is the key issue.</p>
<p>If we look to the example of another immigrant-friendly country, Canada, however, we can see how giving states and territories a greater role in immigration target setting and selection can help take the pressure off major cities without drastically reducing immigration rates.</p>
<p>Immigration certainly impacts on Australia’s population to a greater degree than most Western nations. Among OECD countries, only Switzerland and Luxembourg have a higher percentage of foreign-born people than Australia.</p>
<p>Today, 28% of the Australian population <a href="http://migrationcouncil.org.au/policy/#the-economic-impact-of-migration-2015" target="_blank">was born overseas</a>. The key issue for Australia is that immigrants are more likely to live in large cities than smaller cities or regional areas. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/lookup/4102.0main+features102014" target="_blank">85% of immigrants</a> live in major urban areas, compared to just 64% of Australian-born people.</p>
<p>Indeed, <a href="https://publications.iom.int/books/world-migration-report-2015-migrants-and-cities-new-partnerships-manage-mobility" target="_blank">according to the International Organisation for Migration (IOM)</a>, Sydney is now equal-fourth in the world (with Auckland and Los Angeles) with the highest percentage of foreign-born residents (39%), while Melbourne is not far behind (35%). Nearly two-thirds of residents in Sydney, Melbourne and Perth <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/inquirer/census-2016-migrants-make-a-cosmopolitan-country/news-story/da01bec138fc8600ea7bb84d1844ea80" target="_blank">have at least one parent who was born overseas</a>.</p>
<p><strong>A new state-based approach?</strong></p>
<p>The stress that rapid population growth has placed on Melbourne and Sydney has recently become a topic of much debate. This week, <a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-prime-minister-foreshadows-cut-to-migration-settings-107262" target="_blank">Prime Minister Scott Morrison pledged</a> to reduce the annual permanent immigration cap of 190,000. Australia <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/13/industry-brands-australias-10-migration-intake-drop-disappointing" target="_blank">accepted just 162,417 immigrants</a> last year, the lowest level in a decade.</p>
<p>Morrison has also called for a <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/states-in-best-position-to-determine-skilled-migrant-numbers-morrison" target="_blank">major rethink</a> of the “top-down” approach to immigration in Australia, allowing states and territories to request the number of skilled migrants they’d like to admit each year.</p>
<p>The states and territories currently have a limited ability to nominate applicants for <a href="https://immi.homeaffairs.gov.au/visas/getting-a-visa/visa-listing/skilled-nominated-190" target="_blank">certain skilled visas</a>. But state-nominated and regional visa approvals <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-13/regional-migration-approvals-stalling-five-year-bush-visa/10488204">have fallen in recent years</a> to just over 36,000 last fiscal year <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/yourlanguage/punjabi/en/article/2018/07/02/state-nomination-changes-skilled-visas-leave-visa-seekers-lurch" target="_blank">following tighter restrictions</a>.</p>
<p>Morrison <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/immigration/population-plan-not-working-scott-morrison/news-story/f469e167d2e490b55c769b8a69d10c60" target="_blank">wants to see</a> a bigger role for states and territories:</p>
<p>"This is a blinding piece of common sense, which is: how about states who plan for population growth and the Commonwealth government who sets the migration levels, actually bring this together?"</p>
<p><strong>What we can learn from Canada</strong></p>
<p>The Canadian government gave provinces a say in setting targets and selecting economic immigrants – similar to Australia’s skilled migration intake – in the early 1990s. Quebec was first to <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/politique-du-quebec-immigration" target="_blank">receive a high degree of autonomy</a> in the process – it was given the right to set its own level and selection criteria for all economic immigrants. (The ability to speak French was a must.)</p>
<p>Quebec was also granted the right to set all of its integration programs, funded by Ottawa every year. The payments <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-quebec-to-get-50-million-boost-in-immigration-funding-even-if-it/" target="_blank">reached C$540 million this fiscal year</a>, or C$13,500 for each newcomer.</p>
<p>After Quebec was given this authority, the other Canadian provinces demanded the same. But they received far more limited rights than Quebec. They can <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/immigrate-canada/provincial-nominees/works" target="_blank">nominate the number of economic migrants</a> they need as part of the national immigration target set by the federal government, but they can’t independently set their intake target and selection criteria like Quebec.</p>
<p>While provinces nominate – or in Quebec’s case, decide – annual intakes, all cases are still routed through Ottawa for application integrity testing and vetting for criminality, health and security. Ultimately, final approval rests with Ottawa.</p>
<p>Last year, the Canadian government set an <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/immigration-canada-2018-1.4371146" target="_blank">ambitious target</a> of admitting 1 million total immigrants from 2018-2020. The target for next year is 330,000 immigrants, of which about <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/notices/supplementary-immigration-levels-2019" target="_blank">190,000 will be economic migrants</a>. The remainder will enter under the family reunification category and the refugee, humanitarian and protected category.</p>
<p>About one-third of the economic migrants (61,000) will be admitted through the Provincial Nominee Program. This figure excludes Quebec, which will set its numbers separately.</p>
<p><strong>How the Canadian system encourages rural immigration</strong></p>
<p>Giving the provinces a greater immigration policy role has helped to dramatically shift the settlement of immigrants beyond Canada’s biggest cities.</p>
<p>According to immigration statistics, <a href="https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/ircc/migration/ircc/english/pdf/pub/annual-report-2018.pdf" target="_blank">34% of economic migrants in 2017</a> landed in destinations outside Canada’s three most populous provinces, Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia – compared to just 10% in 1997.</p>
<p>After immigrants arrive, the key issue for the provinces is retention, since immigrants can leave at any time. The provinces put a strong emphasis on ensuring that economic migrants receive a strong welcome on arrival and are provided with support programs, including education, access to local migrant community networks and assistance finding a job for those who are not sponsored by employers.</p>
<p>One of the biggest success stories of the Provincial Nominee Program is thinly populated Manitoba, which has <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/provincial-nominee-program-anniversary-immigration-manitoba-1.4907396" target="_blank">added 130,000 migrants since 1998</a>. Ninety percent have gotten a job within a year of arriving and nearly the same number has ended up staying in Manitoba permanently. New arrivals also <a href="https://umanitoba.ca/faculties/arts/research/media/A_Manitoba_Success_Story.pdf" target="_blank">express some of the greatest feelings</a> of belonging of all immigrants in western Canada.</p>
<p><strong>Why this could work in Australia</strong></p>
<p>South Australia, Tasmania and the Northern Territory – as well as other regional and rural areas across Australia – want more immigrants and refugees.</p>
<p>Attracting immigrants to less-populated states is the easy part: those willing to settle outside Sydney and Melbourne can receive more points if they are skilled migrants, possibly making the difference as to whether they come to Australia or not. The key issue is retention.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/refugees-are-integrating-just-fine-in-regional-australia-101188" target="_blank">My fieldwork with refugees in Australia</a> has shown that the majority of these migrants love living in regional communities and have received a warm welcome from locals. Our research also found they are willing to stay in regional areas if they can get jobs there. Another way of encouraging more immigrants to settle in regional areas could be to offer them priority in the family reunion process.</p>
<p>Importantly, Canada also doesn’t politicise immigration policy. Australia should follow Canada’s lead by giving the states a bigger seat at the immigration policy table and resisting the temptation to blame immigration for complex growth problems in our overcrowded cities.</p>
<p>Reducing the immigration intake cap will have no significant impact on reducing congestion or strain on public infrastructure in Sydney and Melbourne, but it could <a href="http://migrationcouncil.org.au/policy/#the-economic-impact-of-migration-2015" target="_blank">severely constrain economic growth</a>.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/107283/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;"></p>
<p><em><strong>Jock Collins</strong>, Professor of Social Economics, UTS Business School, University of Technology Sydney</em></p>
<p><em>This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-canadas-immigration-system-has-been-a-success-and-what-australia-can-learn-from-it-107283" target="_blank">original article</a>.</em></p>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Why Canada’s immigration system has been a success, and what Australia can learn from it

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
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<p><span>The Prime Minister’s proposal to develop an immigration policy from the bottom up needs to be balanced </span><span>with national leadership on infrastructure.</span></p>
<p>Prime Minister, Scott Morrison, is proposing that immigration policy is developed by asking cities and towns how many extra people they would like.</p>
<p>But this will lead to towns with no jobs wanting extra people and small cities calling for growth when many people prefer the energy of a large city.</p>
<p><span>The reality around the world is that people are attracted to larger cities because of the greater job </span><span>opportunities and the diversity of cultural activities. So most immigrants will be attracted to the larger cities </span><span>like Sydney and Melbourne.</span></p>
<p><span>What Australia needs is national government investment in urban infrastructure to ensure that the cities </span><span>people want to live and work in have the rail networks and the hospitals and schools that are needed. The most important infrastructure for Australian cities as they transition from a low rise suburban model to a </span><span>higher rise urban model is a metro rail network like the ones in London, Paris and New York.</span></p>
<p><span>Australia needs skilled younger m</span><span>igrants to balance the large number of baby-boomers moving into </span><span>retirement so that taxation income is maintained.</span></p>
<p><span>The Prime Minister should ask cities for growth options based on varying contributions to transport </span><span>infrastructure. A good example is the f</span><span>ederal government’s funding of Sydney’s second airport and related infrastructure. Clearly it is this new infrastructure that generates the possibility of future growth.</span></p>
<p><span>Ultimately the discussion on immigration numbers and where </span><span>growth should occur will be a balance between bottom up opportunities for growth and top down leadership on how to manage growth through new infrastructure. A condition of federal funding for infrastructure must be the minimising of red tape in planning systems which is adding unnecessary costs to housing especially in Sydney.</span><span><br></span></p>
<p><span>The Urban Taskforce believes significant growth can occur in Australian cities like Sydney if new </span><span>infrastructure is matched with the new growth. We also believe that federal leadership is needed on the benefits of growth and the changing nature of our cities.</span><span><br></span></p>
<p><em>CHRIS JOHNSON is the CEO of <a href="https://www.urbantaskforce.com.au/" target="_blank">The Urban Taskforce</a>.</em></p>
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Bottom up immigration policy must be balanced with national leadership on infrastructure

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>Changes to visas for skilled workers have delivered an immediate hit to Australia’s population growth.</p>
<p>ABS data released today shows that Australia’s annualised population growth rate slowed for the fourth consecutive quarter.</p>
<p>Australia’s overseas migration fell by 9 per cent since changes to visa requirements came into force in April 2017, slowing the population growth rate to 1.6 per cent.</p>
<p>In April 2017, Australia introduced a range of visa changes which have been successful in reducing the number of skilled migrants arriving in Australia.</p>
<p>The current phase of Australia’s 28 years of continuous economic growth is built upon the arrival of skilled migrants. Skilled migration is necessary to offset the impact of our aging population.</p>
<p>Looking domestically, states such as New South Wales and Victoria that have benefited the most from overseas migration over recent years are now seeing population growth rates slowing.</p>
<p>The slowing rate of population growth, while it remains high for a developed economy, will contribute to slower growth of household consumption.</p>
<p>This means slower growth in sectors such as retail and residential building.</p>
<p>Given that these two sectors are amongst the nation’s largest employers the risks presented a decline in population growth should not be underestimated.</p>
<p>Over the year to March 2018, Victoria saw the strongest growth in population (+2.2 per cent), followed by the ACT (+2.1 per cent) and Queensland (+1.7 per cent).</p>
<p>New South Wales was fourth fastest (+1.6 per cent) with Tasmania fifth (+1.0 per cent), Western Australia sixth (+0.8 per cent) and South Australia seventh (+0.7 per cent).</p>
<p>The population of the Northern Territory has actually declined over the last two quarters and the annual rate of growth has slowed to 0.1 per cent.</p>
<p dir="ltr"><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/9/20/HIA%20ground.JPG" alt=""></p>
<p><em>Geordan Murray is the Principal Economist for HIA </em></p>
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Overseas migration into Australia is down by 9 per cent: Geordan Murray

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>Australia should cut its immigration intake, according to Tony Abbott in a recent speech at the Sydney Institute. Abbott explicitly cites economic theory in his arguments: “It’s a basic law of economics that increasing the supply of labour depresses wages; and that increasing demand for housing boosts price.”</p>
<p>But this economic analysis is too basic. Yes, supply matters. But so does demand.</p>
<p>While migration has increased labour supply, it has done so primarily in sectors where firms were starved of labour, and at a time of broad economic growth.</p>
<p>Immigration has put pressure on infrastructure, but our problems are more a function of governments failing to upgrade and expand infrastructure, even as migrants pay taxes.</p>
<p>And while migrants do live in houses, the federal government’s fondness for stoking demand and the inactivity of state governments in increasing supply are the real issues affecting affordability.</p>
<p><strong>The economy isn’t a fixed pie</strong></p>
<p>Let’s take Abbott’s claims about immigration one by one, starting with wages.</p>
<p>It’s true that if you increase labour supply that, holding other factors that affect wages constant, wages will decline. However, those other factors are rarely constant.</p>
<p>Notably, if the demand for labour is increasing by more than supply (including new migrants), then wages will rise.</p>
<p>This is a big part of the story when it comes to the relationship between wages and migration in Australia. Large migrant numbers have been an almost constant feature of Australia’s economy since the end of the second world war, if not earlier.</p>
<p>But these migrants typically arrived in the midst of economic growth and rising demand for labour. This is particularly true in recent decades, when we have had one of the longest periods of unbroken growth in the history of the developed world.</p>
<p>In our study of the Australian labour market, we found no relationship between immigration rates and poor outcomes for incumbent Australian workers in terms of wages or jobs.</p>
<p>Australia uses a point system for migration that targets skilled migrants in areas of high labour demand. Business is suffering in these areas. Migrants into these sectors don’t take jobs from anybody else because they are meeting previously unmet demand.</p>
<p>These migrants receive a higher wage than they would in their place of origin, and they allow their new employers to reduce costs. This ultimately leads to lower prices for consumers. Just about everybody benefits.</p>
<p>There’s an idea called the “lump of labour fallacy”, which holds that there is a certain amount of work to be done in an economy, and if you bring in more labour it will increase competition for those jobs.</p>
<p>But migrants also bring capital, investing in houses, appliances, businesses, education and many other things. This increases economic activity and the number of jobs available.</p>
<p>Furthermore, innovation has been shown to be strongly linked to immigration. In the United States, for instance, immigrants apply for patents at twice the rate of non-immigrants. And a large number of studies show that immigrants are over-represented in patents, patent impact and innovative activity in a wide range of countries.</p>
<p>We don’t entirely know why this is. It could be that innovative countries attract migrants, or it could be than migrants help innovation. It’s likely that the effect goes both ways and is a strong argument against curtailing immigration.</p>
<p>Abbott’s comments are more reasonable in the case of housing affordability because here all other things really are held constant. Specifically, studies show that housing demand is overheated in part by federal government policies (negative gearing and capital gains tax exemptions, for instance) and state governments not doing enough to increase supply.</p>
<p>Governments have responded to high housing prices by further stoking demand, suggesting that people dip into their superannuation, for instance.</p>
<p>In the wake of Abbott’s speech there has been speculation that our current immigration numbers could exacerbate the pressures of automation, artificial intelligence and other labour-saving innovations.</p>
<p>But our understanding of these forces is nascent at best. In previous instances of major technological disruption, like the industrial revolution, the long-run effects on employment were negligible. When ATMs debuted, for example, many bank tellers lost their jobs. But the cost of branches also declined, new branches opened and total employment did not decline.</p>
<p>In his speech, Abbott said that the government needs policies that are principled, practical and popular. What would be popular is if governments across the country could fix our myriad policy problems. Abbott identified some of the big ones – wages, infrastructure and housing affordability.</p>
<p>What would be practical is to identify the causes of these problems and address these directly. Immigration is certainly not a major cause. It would be principled to undertake evidence-based analysis regarding what the causes are and how to address them.</p>
<p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/92255/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">A lot of that has already been done, notably by the Grattan Institute. What remains is for governments to do the politically difficult work of facing the facts.</p>
<p><em><strong>Robert Breunig</strong>, Professor of Economics, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University.</em></p>
<p><em><strong>Mark Fabian</strong>, Postgraduate student, Australian National University.</em></p>
<p><em>This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/blaming-immigrants-for-unemployment-lower-wages-and-high-house-prices-is-too-simplistic-92255" target="_blank">original article</a>.</em></p>
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Blaming immigrants for high house prices is too simplistic

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<a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2017/12/record-high-immigration-to-sydney"></a><strong style="color: #333333; font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.16px;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Immigration ramps up</span></strong> </h3>
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<div>The natural increase in Australia's population slowed a bit over the 2017 financial year as the number of deaths increased. </div>
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<div>However net immigration from overseas boomed by +27 per cent from +193,000 to 245,500, so you can comprehensively chalk that one up as a good call for this blog page (a year ago much of the idle talk of was population growth dropping because of a slowing economy). </div>
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<div>Australia is the planet's sixth largest country so this isn't such a big deal in itself, but the concentration of the immigration will raise a few eyebrows, as we shall see below. </div>
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<div>Over the financial year Australia's population grew by +388,100 or +1.6 per cent to 24.6 million by the end of June 2017. </div>
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<br>The Aussie population will pass the 25 million landmark in 2018.<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The MEL-SYD magnet</span></strong><br><br><div>Net overseas migration into the two most populous states rose to the highest level on record. </div>
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<div>New South Wales (+98,600) and Victoria (+86,800) accounted for the great bulk of immigration, with new arrivals overwhelmingly clustering into the capital cities of Greater Sydney and Melbourne respectively. </div>
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<div>Immigration into Queensland is also picking up the pace, from a cyclical nadir of +18,300 over the year to September 2015 up to +31,100 in the 2017 financial year, with the trend pointing north as the economy improves. </div>
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<div>Just as significantly for Queensland, the state is now pulling Sydneysiders up and away from New South Wales. </div>
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<div>Net interstate migration to the Sunshine State hit a decade-high +5,050 in the June quarter, taking the rolling annual total up to +17,400, surpassing Victoria to notch the biggest draw of any state. </div>
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<div>This is positive news for Brisbane, while unlike the most populous states Queensland has other worthy growth hubs, including Gold Coast and the Sunshine Coast. </div>
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<div>South Australia lost -5,900 residents interstate, and Western Australia lost -11,700, although in each case the bottom appears to be in. </div>
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<br><span>The big migratory trend in 2018 will clearly be from New South Wales up to Queensland. </span><br><br><div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
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<div>Totting up the figures New South Wales (+121,800), Victoria (+144,400), and Queensland (+79,600) accounted for 89 per cent of population growth in the 2017 financial year. </div>
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<div>Victoria's population growth rate of +2.3 per cent exceeds the rate at which appropriate new accommodation can realistically be built, let alone the availability of new land supply. </div>
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<div>On the other hand population growth rate was considerably weaker than the national average in Western Australia (+21,400 or +0.8 per cent), South Australia (+10,500 or +0.6 per cent), Tasmania (+3,300 or +0.8 per cent), and the Northern Territory (+400 or +0.1 per cent). </div>
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<div>Last, but certainly not least, the Australian Capital Territory added +6,800 or +1.7 per cent to its population, which will help to fill up all those new apartments. </div>
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<span>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of </span><a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a><span> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and </span><a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a><span>.</span>
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Record high immigration to Sydney and Melbourne: Pete Wargent 

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<p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/78097/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1"></p>
<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>The latest statistics show Australia's population growth in the last decade has been significantly higher than in other developed countries.</p>
<p>Population growth has profound impacts on Australian life, and sorting myths from facts can be difficult. This is the second article in our series, Is Australia Full?, which aims to help inform a wide-ranging and often emotive debate.</p>
<p>Population change has long been a topic of public debate in Australia, periodically escalating into controversy.</p>
<p>It is inextricably linked to debates about immigration levels, labour force needs, capital city congestion and housing costs, refugee intakes, economic growth in country areas and northern Australia, the “big versus smaller” Australia debate, and environmental pressures.</p>
<p>Views about the rate of population growth in Australia are numerous and mixed. At one end of the spectrum are those who are vehemently opposed to further population increases; at the other end are supporters of substantially higher population growth and a “very big” Australia.</p>
<p>Logically, population debates usually quote Australia’s demographic statistics. But there is value in comparing our population growth in the international context.</p>
<h2>Average growth rates compared globally</h2>
<p>Although growth rates have fluctuated considerably from year to year, statistics just released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) show that Australia’s population grew by 3.75 million between 2006 and 2016. This indicates an average annual growth rate of 1.7%.</p>
<p>As the chart below shows, this was quite high compared to other countries and global regions. Over the decade, other English-speaking countries such as New Zealand, Canada and the US all experienced growth rates lower than Australia’s. The world’s more developed countries in aggregate grew by an annual average of 0.3%.</p>
<p>The world’s population as a whole increased by an average of 1.2% per year.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/05/6%20july%20expert.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
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<p>According to the UN Population Division, Australia ranked 90th out of 233 countries in terms of population growth rate over the decade. The countries or territories with higher growth rates were mostly less developed countries, particularly in Africa, and the oil-rich Gulf states. The only developed countries with faster rates of growth were Singapore, Luxembourg and Israel.</p>
<h2>Why Australia’s population growth rate is higher</h2>
<p>There are two main reasons for Australia’s high growth.</p>
<p>Net overseas migration (immigration minus emigration) is one major factor. It has been generating a little over half (56%) of population growth in recent years.</p>
<p>Demand for immigration – to settle permanently, work in Australia, or study here for a few years – is high, and there are many opportunities for people to move to Australia. In the 2015-16 financial year about 190,000 visas were granted to migrants and 19,000 for humanitarian and refugee entry. Temporary migrants included 311,000 student visas, 215,000 working holidaymaker visas and 86,000 temporary work (skilled) 457 visas.</p>
<p>Over the last five years, ABS figures show that immigration has averaged about 480,000 per year and emigration about 280,000. This puts annual net overseas migration at around 200,000.</p>
<p>This is high in international terms. UN Population Division data for the 2010-15 periodreveals Australia had the 17th-highest rate of net overseas migration of any country.</p>
<p>But it is not just overseas migration driving Australia’s population growth. High natural increase (the number of births minus the number of deaths) also makes a substantial contribution. Natural increase has been responsible for a little under half (44%) of population growth in recent years (about 157,000 per year).</p>
<p>Australia has a relatively healthy fertility rate, which lately has averaged almost 1.9 babies per woman. We also enjoy one of the highest life expectancies in the world.</p>
<p>This combination of an extended history of net overseas migration gains, a long baby boom and a healthy fertility rate has resulted in Australia being less advanced in the population ageing transition than many other developed countries.</p>
<p>In particular, relatively large numbers of people are in the peak childbearing ages. This means that even if migration fell immediately to zero the population would still increase. Demographers call this age structure effect “population momentum”.</p>
<h2>Whether Australia’s population is growing too fast</h2>
<p>While Australia’s population growth rate is high in a global context, this does not necessarily mean its population is growing too fast. It all depends on your point of view.</p>
<p>It is important to stress that the overall population growth rate is just one aspect of Australia’s demography. A more comprehensive debate about the nation’s demographic trajectory should consider a broad range of issues, such as:</p>
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<p>population age structure (the numbers of people in different age groups);</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>the health and wellbeing of a rapidly growing population at the highest ages;</p>
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<p>population distribution across the country;</p>
</li>
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<p>economic growth and development;</p>
</li>
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<p>the contributions of temporary workers and overseas students;</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>appropriate infrastructure for the needs of the population; and</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>environmental management and per-capita carbon emissions.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<p>Progress on issues such as healthy ageing, economic development,and environmental management depend on appropriate strategies to deal with these challenges. Total population numbers will often be relevant to the discussion, but they are only part of the equation.</p>
<p><em>Tom Wilson is a Principal Research Fellow at Charles Darwin University and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/tom-wilson-1717" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
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How babies and migrants have contributed to Australia’s population growth: Tom Wilson

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<p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/78183/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1"></p>
<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p><span>Considering all the aspects of life in Australia that are affected by population, it's remarkable that the nation doesn't have a national policy on it.</span></p>
<p>Population growth has profound impacts on Australian life, and sorting myths from facts can be difficult. This is the first article in our series, Is Australia Full?, which aims to help inform a wide-ranging and often emotive debate.</p>
<p>Australia lacks an overarching population policy or strategy. Over the years, multiple inquiries have recommended such a policy. Population policies the world over typically focus on births and migration.</p>
<p>As part of post-war reconstruction, Australia adopted a 2% population growth target. Mass immigration was a defining feature, and couples were called on to populate or perish. Immigration was successful, but women were big losers in the push for births.</p>
<p>The 1975 National Population Inquiry proved a significant moment in Australian demography. The inquiry found that Australia should not seek to influence population, but should anticipate and respond.</p>
<p>Population policy was revisited in the 1990s with the National Population Council. Its 1994 report found no optimal population size for Australia, but again called for a responsive population policy of preparedness.</p>
<p>Interest in sustainable population policy was renewed in 2010 following Kevin Rudd’s infamous endorsement of a “big Australia”. We even had a minister for population, Tony Burke, for about six months until the portfolio was expanded. Population was subsequently dropped from any ministerial title.</p>
<p>After an exhaustive inquiry, A Sustainable Population Strategy for Australia was released in 2011. This stopped short of recommending a population policy but removed any option of population limits. Change felt possible in shifting the narrative to a proactive endeavour concerning population matters, particularly evident in the National Urban Policy.</p>
<p>Despite such inquiries and recommendations to adopt a population policy, governments have so far resisted. Unsuccessful attempts at population policy can be understood in terms of difficulties in gaining political support and concerns about coercion.</p>
<p>But national population policy need not be coercive – unlike, for example, in India or China. Instead, it can be a series of targets and connected policy domains with oversight.</p>
<p>Presently, the policy landscape is disjointed. Parenting leave, family and childcare payments, and immigration are each somewhat responsive to population changes, but not prepared. Family payments have been shown not to increase birth rates.</p>
<h2>Births, deaths, migration – and taxes</h2>
<p>The intergenerational reports have been our only glimpse of responsiveness and preparedness. But these have increasingly been criticised for their political tone. Who could forget the Challenge of Change campaign?</p>
<p>What we know is that Australia’s population continues to age, so among the nation’s pressing issues is fewer taxpayers. The total age-related dependency ratio, of people aged over and under working age relative to the working-aged population, was 52 per 100 people in 2016.</p>
<p>While the child-dependency rate (0-14 year olds) is higher than the aged-dependency rate (people 65 and over), the rate of people aged less than 15 has steadily declined as the population aged 65 and over has driven increases in the so-called dependency burden.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/05/fedwrefedde.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
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<p>The relative increase in people older than working age is increasing pressure on the economy and government budgets. While government spending on young people is substantial, the highest per person spending is among people aged 65 and over.</p>
<p>A robust workforce contributing income tax and services is essential to ensure current lifestyles are afforded to the young while also sustaining the public spending necessary for people over 65 years who have over their lives contributed to the nation.</p>
<p>With birth rates low and deaths increasing, natural increase is no longer driving Australia’s population. Immigration is increasingly relied on to offset the ageing of the workforce. Over half (54%) of Australia’s population growth is from net overseas migration.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/05/xdgfchgjhjn.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/07/05/xdgfchgjhjn.jpg" width="700" height="473"></p>
<h2>Preparing for an older population</h2>
<p>In a 2013 United Nations survey, the Australian government reported concerns about population ageing, a desire to increase the “too low” birth rate, but satisfaction with the level of net overseas migration. Interestingly, a preference for migration away from cities was also cited.</p>
<p>From current policy and discourse, you would not know these views were held. Most Australians also report a preference for the level of immigration to remain the same or be increased, contrary to sentiments we often hear.</p>
<p>Australia has time to prepare for, and make opportunities of, the challenges of an ageing population. Some countries are facing tough decisions now and it is interesting to watch the politics play out. What Japan, China and Germany show is that we need to take action now.</p>
<p>Insightful guides are in place already. South Australia has had a population strategy since 2004. Tasmania recently adopted one.</p>
<p>These state strategies focus on growth to curb economic downturn. What is important in these two cases is that both emphasise policy portfolio linkages, as well as evidence and reporting against targets without coercive measures.</p>
<h2>What is a sensible approach to population policy?</h2>
<p>A renewed, earnest and transparent population conversation is needed. With ever more reliance on immigration, we must go beyond the unhelpful pro-immigration versus pro-nationalism debate to consider our population prospects.</p>
<p>The key question is: how can Australia make opportunities of its demographic challenges?</p>
<p>Australia has the potential to be a global leader in innovative markets and research and development. An ageing population provides an interesting market opening; we just need to be smart about it. Without careful consideration, Australia will be merely a bystander in the increasingly competitive global market.</p>
<p>Policy connectedness should exist between portfolios. These include: health; housing; education, skills and training; employment; infrastructure; regional development; water and energy; environment; and migrant settlement.</p>
<p>We can invest more effectively in young people – our future workforce and economic lifeblood – if we consider a life-course approach to population dynamics. Family friendly, gender-equal workplaces will go a long way to ease the pressures of having children. Integral to this is affordable and accessible child care.</p>
<p>And establishing a ministerial portfolio overseeing population strategy would be a good start.</p>
<p><em>Liz Allen is a Demographer, ANU Centre for Social Research and Methods, Australian National University and author for The Conversation. she can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/liz-allen-10193" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span> </span></p>
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Australia doesn’t have a population policy – why? Liz Allen

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<p>The federal government’s much-hyped budget measures to improve housing affordability completely skirted the topic of its large immigrant intake which affects home prices, according to a senior journalist.  </p>
<p>The Australian’s Judith Sloan said while the Treasurer Scott Morrison said before the budget that social housing and renters would be a focus of the affordability measures,  the budget failed to address the fact that rapid population growth causes a housing price surge as supply fails to keep up with demand.  </p>
<p>The much-awaited housing affordability package was “just too meagre to warrant the big sell”, says Sloan. </p>
<p>A recent op-ed piece by Michael Sukkar, Assistant Minister to the Treasurer, about the government’s measures was “feeble” she says.</p>
<p>The government has said it will free up some Defence land for housing, has tasked Treasury to set up the National Housing Finance and Investment Corporation which will operate an affordable housing bond aggregator.  </p>
<p>A first home super saver scheme will allow voluntary superannuation contributions of $15 000 per annum and cumulative maximum of $30 000 in total (per person if in a couple) for first home buyers. </p>
<p>Others such as concessions for wealthy retirees to downsize and penalties for foreign investors if they left their houses vacant were too meagre, she says.</p>
<p>Property Observer had earlier reported that there had been mixed reactions to the budget's housing measures. </p>
<p>“The list may seem long but the impact on housing affordability will be negligible and the government knows that,” says Sloan. </p>
<p>In reality, most of the real determinants of housing affordability are not controlled by the federal government: land release, planning and development approval processes, interest rate policy and availability of credit. </p>
<p>However, it does control migration, and that lever can impact housing prices simply because of the demand-supply equation.  </p>
<p>Sloan said there had been no change to the migration numbers under the skilled and family reunion categories. Australia will take in 190,000 a year for the coming financial year and in the next three. </p>
<p>She says there was no mention of this fact in the budget papers and it “was an attempt to hide this fact”.</p>
<p>Sloan likens Immigration Minister Peter Dutton to a tough cop when it comes to certain immigrants. </p>
<p>“But we are effectively being asked to look over there — we are deporting a few hundred failed asylum-seekers — while the large-scale immigration program is simply allowed to roll on without adjustment,”  says Sloan. </p>
<p>At 190,000 a year, immigration now makes up more than half of our population growth, and Australia has one of the highest rates of population growth among developed economies.</p>
<p>In fact, Australia’s population growth of almost 1.7 per cent is more than double the growth rate of many other countries, including Germany and the US.</p>
<p>“So why wouldn’t the government make the obvious call and reduce this number, particularly as this would have given substance to the claim that the pressing issue of housing affordability is being ­addressed?,” she asks. </p>
<p>Among the reasons is Treasury’s advice to the government that reducing the number of immigrants would hit GDP growth, but the real measure that should be considered is GDP per head of population and it is not at all clear that high rates of immigration are associated with growth in the preferred figure.</p>
<p>While Australia hasn’t had a recession in more than 25 years, the story for GDP per capita is different. </p>
<p>“There have been at least two episodes in the past 25 years when we have experienced technical recessions in GDP per capita (two successive quarters of negative growth).” </p>
<p>Another reason was the lobbying by the business sector to keep the numbers high.  </p>
<p>“After all, if your firm is in the game of property development… what’s not to love about high immigration?,” she says.</p>
<p>Then there are the firms that find it easier to recruit migrant workers than train up the locals, says Sloan.</p>
<p>Also, for universities to sell “overpriced degrees to overseas students, it is necessary to be able to offer the byproduct of permanent residence for graduates,” argues Sloan. </p>
<p>Any reduction in immigration numbers would make that sell harder and she says there was likely a bit of “wink-and-nod” between the government and the vice-chancellors on this topic. </p>
<p>If the government really wanted to show its commitment to improve housing affordability, it would have slashed the migration programme numbers, but vested interests had their way, Sloan concludes.</p>
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Government didn't slash high immigration rate to improve housing affordability: Judith Sloan   

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<div>Despite evidence of a slowdown in immigration across many parts of Australia, we recently saw immigration accelerate to a 4-year high. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The main population growth is being seen particularly in Melbourne, and in Sydney. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>And now it's getting faster. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In February, permanent and long term arrivals soared to 103,570, the single biggest month on record. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Meanwhile, long term departures fell to just 30,080, resulting a net intake of 73,490 in a single month, which puts the high volume of apartment construction in a different light.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Of course, immigration can dry up or even turn negative when the outlook turns bad, but for now population growth is absolutely hammering along.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It may seem odd that the monthly intake just hit a record high given weak employment figures.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>But remember that most immigrants head for New South Wales and Victoria where the economies have been performing relatively well, and jobs vacancies have been highest. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Smoothing the permanent and long term immigration figures over the last year shows only an apparently small spike.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, caution should always be urged when using these numbers from month to month, not least because overwhelmingly the "long term" departures from Australia have historically returned to Australia within a year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/13/B1-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/13/B1-1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>There has been a very sharp drop in the number of permanent settlers from New Zealand and the United Kingdom in recent years. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The big numbers are now hailing from China, and especially India, with a crunching 2,330 Indian settlers in February. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/13/B6-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/13/B6-1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<p><br><span>The number of settlers from North Africa &amp; the Middle East has also comfortably more than doubled over the past year, reflecting a quietly increased humanitarian intake.</span></p>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Record visitors, many from China</span></strong></div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> </span></strong></div>
<div>Perhaps the less well understood side of the equation is the huge number of short term arrivals to Australia, which tore to another record in February at more than 8.36 million. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/13/B4-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/13/B4-1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>There has been a substantial uplift in the number of visitors from America and India, but the real driver has been another record surge in visitors from China. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/13/B5-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/13/B5-1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Lunar New Year straddled January and February this year, but looking at the original data over the three months to February an unprecedented 525,500 visitors from China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong graced Australian shores. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Wow. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/13/B2-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/13/B2-1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>Finally, I've been blathering on since 2015 about how international students will ultimately become the main driving force of migration into Australia. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>And check out the number of education arrivals in February at 123,900, by far the biggest month on record and more than 30 percent higher than a year ago. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/13/B3-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/13/B3-1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<p> </p>
<div>International students largely hail from China, and many are expected in time to become Australian residents on sundry visa types. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Think I've posted more than enough here for a day or two, but my population growth versus dwelling completions models show that the oversupply of apartments in Melbourne...well, it basically isn't.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In Sydney the story is a little different, in that supply has been playing catch up, but with a record number of dwellings under construction right across the state in 2016 the balance is swing sharply as 2017 rolls on. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
</div>
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The property effect of record busting immigration: Pete Wargent

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<p>Annual net permanent and long term arrivals into Australia increased marginally in September to +267,500, some way up from the nadir of +262,800 in June. </p>
<div id="post-body-5241173402093429277" class="post-body entry-content"><a href="/images/2016/11/15/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="post-body entry-content">
<br><div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/11/15/A1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div>A significant driver of the rebound has been permanent settlers from Asia, of which there were 74,300 over the year to September, or 56.6 per cent of the total. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>By contrast, permanent settlers from New Zealand, and from Europe with their weakened currencies, continued to wane significantly.</div>
<br><a href="/images/2016/11/15/A4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
</div>
<div class="post-body entry-content"> </div>
<div class="post-body entry-content">
<img src="/images/2016/11/15/A4.jpg" alt=""><br><div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">8 million &amp; beyond</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The rebalancing quietly continues, with the number of short term departures ticking a notch lower for a third consecutive month in September, while short term arrivals smashed new records by a huge margin at 709,700 in the month (+11.7 per cent over the year).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The chart therefore dovetails into a neat 'pincer' formation, as short term arrivals flew beyond 8 million for the first time, and the pace of increase approaching two decade highs!</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/11/15/A5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<br><img src="/images/2016/11/15/A5.jpg" alt=""><br><br><div>No surprises for guessing that the increase was driven by the 1.58 million visitors from China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong, which even now are still increasing at an annual pace of more than 20 per cent. Extraordinary!</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/11/15/A2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/11/15/A2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div>There has also been a huge lift in tourism from the United States, rising at an annual pace of around +18 percent. </div>
<br><div>While tourism is of course a major driver, the role of international education should not be underestimated with a record 506,200 education arrivals over the year to September (+12.7 percent).</div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/11/15/A3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/11/15/A3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>While there are inevitably some back-and-forth trips within these figures, as an indicator this chart matches up quite closely with enrolments data which have also suggested rapid growth in international student numbers, particularly from China and India.</div>
<br><div class="separator"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Quite a solid set of numbers across the board here, with record short term arrivals and increasing immigration. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Overall, this points to annual population growth tracking at around +350,000, but note how population growth is being driven less by 'permanent' arrivals and more by those arriving on other types of visa. </div>
<div> </div>
</div>
<div class="post-footer">
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
</body></html>

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