<p>Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.</p>

<p>Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;</p>

<p>David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]</p>

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

<p>Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;</p>

<p>At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.</p>

<p>Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.</p>

<p>Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]</p>

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

<p>Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.</p>

<p>David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.</p>

<p>“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;</p>

<p>Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]</p>

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

<p>While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;</p>

<p>However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.</p>

<p>Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;</p>


Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.</p>

<p>The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.</p>

<p>Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.</p>

<p>“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.</p>

<p>“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”</p>

<p><img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" /></p>

<p>Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.</p>

<p>The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.</p>

<p>“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.</p>

<p>“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”</p>

<p><img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" /></p>

<p>Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.</p>

<p>“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.</p>

<p>The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.</p>

<p>“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”</p>

<p>The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.</p>

<p>The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.</p>


Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

<p>Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.</p>

<p>Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.</p>

<p>The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.</p>

<p>“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.</p>

<p>“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.</p>

<p>“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”</p>

<p>The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.</p>

<p>“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”</p>

<p>From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.</p>

<p>“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”</p>

<p>The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.</p>

<p>“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.</p>

<p>Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.</p>

<p>“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.</p>

<p>“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”</p>

<p>The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.</p>

<p>“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.</p>

<p>Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>


Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

<p>Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.</p>

<p>The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.</p>

<p>It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.</p>

<p>With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.</p>

<p>“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.</p>

<p>“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”</p>

<p><img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" /></p>

<p>GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.</p>

<p>“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”</p>

<p>Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.</p>

<p>“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.</p>

<p><img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" /></p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.</p>

<p>Green praised local policy settings.</p>

<p>“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”</p>

<p>One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.</p>

<p>“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.</p>


One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

<p>It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.</p>

<p>Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.</p>

<p>Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be</p>

<p data-end="683" data-start="511">"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.</p>

<p data-end="882" data-start="690">"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."</p>

<p data-end="882" data-start="690">[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]</p>

<p>The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.</p>

<p>The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.</p>

<p>Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]</p>

<p>Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.</p>

<p>The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]</p>

<p data-end="247" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="" data-start="0">While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.</p>

<p>WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.</p>

<p>With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]</p>


WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

Housing Market

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<p>CoreLogic RP Data research director Tim Lawless said capital city housing markets started the year off on a positive note with dwelling values rising by 0.9% in January in his latest video update.</p>
<p>  The month on month lift in dwelling values wasn't enough to offset the weaker readings in December and November, according to Tim, who said this dragged the rolling quarterly rate of capital gain down 0.6%.</p>
<p>To watch the January Housing Market update <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/housing-update/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p>
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po-LsXgBTHBmX

Watch the latest housing market update across the capital cities: Tim Lawless

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<p>Where you live may be an important factor in the sorts of jobs you find, where your children go to school, and how safe you feel walking home after working late. A tight rental market clearly limits housing choices for the less well-off. But are there other factors that might affect this – such as ethnicity?</p>
<h2>How we tested for discrimination</h2>
<p>To investigate this, we designed an experiment to compare the experience of Anglo, Indian and Muslim Middle Eastern “renters” in Sydney, to see if they were treated differently. We chose to look at these two ethnic minorities because other studies have reported they experience housing discrimination.</p>
<p>Each week between August and November 2013, we sampled properties advertised for rent across Sydney. We used paired testers (people of the same gender and age, but different ethnicities) as “mystery shoppers”. They phoned the listed agent and then, if possible, attended an inspection in person.</p>
<p>The testers completed a detailed questionnaire about what the agents told them. We completed a total of 537 phone-call tests and 369 in-person inspection tests.</p>
<p>The study covers only the enquiry and inspection stages of the housing search. We couldn’t test what happens once an application is actually submitted, because that would have involved lying. However, even at these early stages, we found some clear differences in how Anglo testers were treated compared to Muslim Middle Eastern or Indian testers.</p>
<h2>What happened in the tests?</h2>
<p>The chart below summarises the proportion of “tests” (properties that both testers visited) falling into one of three categories: the minority tester was favoured; both testers were treated identically; and the Anglo tester was favoured.</p>
<p>We tested which of these differences were statistically significant (not likely to be the result of random variation). The net difference between the numbers of Anglos and minorities favoured is shown in the chart labels, along with the statistical significance of the difference.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/02/11/image-20160129-27177-1e62dl2.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/02/11/image-20160129-27177-1e62dl2.png" alt=""></p>
<p>On some dimensions, minority testers were more likely to be favoured. Agents were more likely to tell the minority tester when the property would be available and that all adult occupants must sign a lease.</p>
<p>Agents were also more likely to take the minority testers' details – although they were less likely to contact them after the inspection.</p>
<p>But on most dimensions, particularly those that might meaningfully affect someone’s search for housing, agents favoured the Anglo tester. Agents were three to four times more likely to offer Anglo (but not minority) testers an individual appointment to inspect the property, to ask Anglo testers about their housing needs and to tell them of other available housing.</p>
<p>Agents also gave Anglo testers information about the application process that the minority partner was not given (such as the deadline for applications). And, although agents did this in only a small number of cases, they were more likely to contact Anglo compared to minority testers after the inspection.</p>
<p>All of these differences might make it far easier for Anglo renters to find the right property, at the right price and in the right location.</p>
<h2>What can we reasonably conclude?</h2>
<p>Paired testing has its limitations. It is difficult to match individuals perfectly. Underlying characteristics (such as how confident someone is) might affect how they are treated.</p>
<p>We screened testers carefully and spent time training them. We also monitored the weekly survey responses to control quality.</p>
<p>One obvious limitation is that we looked at the experiences of only two ethnic minority groups, because we had limited funds. It’s likely that other ethnic and racial groups might have quite different experiences in the rental housing market. Our results also don’t say anything about other Australian cities.</p>
<p>Despite these limitations, we believe paired tests offer unique insight into how people of different ethnicities are treated in the market. Surveying agents or renters about their perceptions would have resulted in just that – a study of perceptions.</p>
<p>No-one can accurately compare their own experience of the world to someone else’s. So, relying only on complaints of discrimination is likely to underestimate substantially the actual incidence of differential treatment. We think our study offers a much more robust glimpse at housing inequity and has the potential to supplement anti-discrimination enforcement.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><em><span class="fn author-name">Heather MacDonald is </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">head of the school of built environment and professor of planning in the Faculty of Design, Architecture and Building, University of Technology Sydney and author for The Conversation.</span></em></p>
<p><em><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">She can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/heather-macdonald-219145" target="_blank">here</a>.</span></em></p>
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Sydney's discriminatory rental housing market

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<p><span>National Australia Bank's latest survey of the housing market anticipates a rise of one per cent in house prices for 2016.</span></p>
<p><span>Apartment prices are expected to fall by 1.2 percent.</span></p>
<p><span>Houses in capital cities experienced average price growth of 7.8 percent in 2015.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/02/04/Screen%20Shot%202016-02-04%20at%2012.18.37%20PM.png" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2016/02/04/Screen%20Shot%202016-02-04%20at%2012.18.37%20PM.png" alt=""></span></p>
<p><span>The survey is based on the responses of 250 real estate professionals, fund managers, property owners and investors.</span></p>
<p><span>NAB’s Residential Property Index fell to its lowest level since mid-2012 as the slowdown in house price growth continued. Queensland is expected to lead the country for capital growth over the next 1-2 years.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/02/04/Screen%20Shot%202016-02-04%20at%2012.03.33%20PM.png" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2016/02/04/Screen%20Shot%202016-02-04%20at%2012.03.33%20PM.png" alt=""></span></p>
<p><span>Local investors played a smaller role in both new and established property markets in Q4.</span></p>
<p><span>Foreign buyers were also less active, except in Queensland.</span></p>
<p><span>NAB has lowered its average forecast for national house prices for 2016 to 1%, with expectations softer in all cities (led by Sydney and Melbourne). The outlook for unit prices (included for the first time) also points to flat to falling apartment prices across all capitals.</span></p>
<p><span>The NAB Residential Property Index fell to +1 in Q4 (+10 in Q3) and now sits well below its long-term average (+13).</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/02/Screen%20Shot%202016-02-04%20at%2012.11.20%20PM.png" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2016/02/Screen%20Shot%202016-02-04%20at%2012.11.20%20PM.png" alt=""></span></p>
<p><span>Market sentiment continued to weaken in most states, particularly in NSW and Queensland. Sentiment also fell in Victoria, but it has replaced NSW as the strongest overall and is currently the only state tracking above its long-term average. Sentiment fell further in SA/NT and remains very weak in WA.</span></p>
<p><span>Average survey expectations for national house price growth over the next 1-2 years were scaled back in most states.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/02/04/Screen%20Shot%202016-02-04%20at%2012.12.29%20PM.png" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2016/02/04/Screen%20Shot%202016-02-04%20at%2012.12.29%20PM.png" alt=""></span></p>
<p><span>Queensland, is predicted to be the best state for capital growth (1.9% &amp; 2.7%), followed by Victoria (0.7% &amp; 1%). House price growth in NSW in the next 1-2 years is expected to be flat, with weak growth also tipped for SA/NT (-0.6% &amp; 0.2%) and WA (-0.5% &amp; 0.6%).</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/02/04/Screen%20Shot%202016-02-04%20at%2012.14.45%20PM.png" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2016/02/04/Screen%20Shot%202016-02-04%20at%2012.14.45%20PM.png" alt=""></span></p>
<p><span>According to NAB Group chief economist Alan Oster the weakening fundamentals have already seen the market starting to cool, "suggesting the best of the price gains are probably behind us”.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/02/04/Screen%20Shot%202016-02-04%20at%2012.20.42%20PM.png" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2016/02/04/Screen%20Shot%202016-02-04%20at%2012.20.42%20PM.png" alt=""></span></p>
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NAB survey predicts slight apartment price fall in 2016

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<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The housing market concluded 2015 with a whimper, with national house prices falling again at the national level in December. However, strong price growth in the first half of the year meant that prices were still up solidly over the past year.</span></p>
<p>But the current environment of subdued demand is likely to see price growth remain sluggish as we move into 2016.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/01/11/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-11%20at%2010.25.42%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/01/11/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-11%20at%2010.25.42%20AM.png" alt="" width="891" height="258"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p>Prices fell across the key markets of Sydney and Melbourne in December in seasonally adjusted terms. Prices in Sydney have now fallen for three consecutive months – the first such run in nearly five years. </p>
<p>Prices are being driven by softer demand and sentiment in the housing sector. Tighter regulation and higher interest rates have contributed to auction clearance rates falling from their recent peak. As clearance rates dipped further in December, to a three-year low in Sydney, house prices have been correspondingly soft (Figure 1). </p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/01/11/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-11%20at%2010.28.46%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/01/11/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-11%20at%2010.28.46%20AM.png" alt="" width="806" height="580"></p>
<p>Falling prices were prevalent across most of the smaller capitals too in December. However, one brighter spot was Brisbane, which experienced rising prices over the past two months. This is consistent with our belief that Queensland’s economy has turned the corner, supporting housing sentiment. In addition, the absence of earlier price growth to the extent of Sydney or Melbourne means that there is less room for unwinding over the near term (Figure 2). </p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/01/11/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-11%20at%2010.28.57%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/01/11/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-11%20at%2010.28.57%20AM.png" alt="" width="797" height="547"></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/01/11/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-11%20at%2010.31.55%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/01/11/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-11%20at%2010.31.55%20AM.png" alt="" width="780" height="552"></p>
<p> </p>
<p><em>Cherelle Murphy is c<span>o-head of Australian economics, ANZ and </span><span>Daniel Gradwell is economist. They can be contacted <a href="https://bluenotes.anz.com/authors/our-economists/" target="_blank">here</a>.</span></em></p>
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Australian house prices finished 2015 on a whimper: ANZ Research

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<p><span>Houses in Sydney, Melbourne and Coffs Harbour are in the peak of the market, according to the Herron Todd White December 2015 property clock.</span></p>
<p><span>The report suggested that the lure of cheap money and competitiveness of the banking industry have fuelled demand throughout all sectors of the market, particularly the sub $500,000 sector where the demand is strongest.</span></p>
<p><span>"This demand has naturally flowed through into the mid to high value range ($500,000 to $1 million) culminating in two beachfront sales in excess of $2 million which is the first in many years," the report said.</span></p>
<p><span>The valuation firm noted that the new unit and housing construction sector which was hit hardest by the GFC has seen a strong recovery.</span></p>
<p><span>"Park Beach north of the Coffs Harbour CBD has experienced the greatest number of new unit developments with Sapphire Beach topping the list for housing," they added.  </span></p>
<p><span>The market conditions in all sectors have been extremely buoyant over the past twelve months which has not entirely been driven by the record low interest rates but more importantly fundamentals such as continual population growth, resurgence in local tourism, upgrading of major road infrastructure, an increasing industrial base and the growing health and education sectors. </span></p>
<p><span>Here's a list of pricey houses recently sold in Coffs Harbour -- postcode 2450 -- that Property Observer found over recent times:</span></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/12/16/700_coffs.jpg" alt="" width="445" height="270"></p>
<p>1. A seven-bedroom house at <a href="https://www.realestateview.com.au/real-estate/11-charlesworth-bay-road-coffs-harbour-nsw/property-details-sold-residential-8765182" target="_blank">11 Charlesworth Bay Road, Coffs Harbour 2450</a> (above) was sold for $2.65 million, seemingly the district's top sale this year. The property show some growth having last exchanged hands for $1.9 million in 2004.</p>
<p> <img src="/images/2015/12/16/c2.jpg" alt="" width="540" height="405"></p>
<p><span>2. A nine-bedroom house at <span><a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-coffs+harbour-120475877" target="_blank">39 Jarrett Street Coffs Harbour NSW 2450</a> (above)</span> was sold for $1 million. Its previous selling price was $715,000 in 2012.</span></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/12/16/main-1.jpg" alt="" width="531" height="398"></span></p>
<p><span>3. A seven-bedroom house at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-acreage+semi+rural-nsw-boambee-119476487" target="_blank"><span>19 Middle Boambee Road Boambee NSW 2450</span></a> (above) was recently sold after 628 days on the market for an undisclosed price. Given its price guide was $2.45 million after listing at $2.5 million in 2014, there seemingly wasn't much price growth. The property last traded in 2008 for $2.35 million</span></p>
<p><span>The median house price for Coffs Harbour is $405,000, according to Corelogic RP Data.</span></p>
<p><span>Recent sales around the median price are:</span></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/12/16/main-2.jpg" alt="" width="527" height="395"></span></p>
<p><span>1. A three-bedroom house at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-coffs+harbour-121478070" target="_blank"><span>12 Hannaford Place Coffs Harbour NSW 2450</span></a> (above) sold for $430,000. It last sold for $329,500 in 2010.</span></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/12/16/c3.jpg" alt="" width="563" height="422"></span></p>
<p><span>2. A three-bedroom home at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-coffs+harbour-116184343" target="_blank"><span>37 Taloumbi Road Coffs Harbour NSW 2450</span></a> (above) sold recently for $407,000. This one last changed hands for $145,000 in 2002.</span></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/12/16/main-4.jpg" alt="" width="502" height="376"></span></p>
<p><span>3. A four-bedroom house at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-coffs+harbour-121264762" target="_blank"><span>10 Zara Place Coffs Harbour NSW 2450</span></a> (above) recently sold for $412,000. It fetched $350,000 in 2010.</span></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/12/18/main-5.jpg" alt="" width="481" height="361"></span></p>
<p><span>4. A four-bedroom house at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-coffs+harbour-120626909" target="_blank">56 Loaders Lane Coffs Harbour NSW 2450</a> (above) recently sold for $415,000. It last changed hands for $225,000 in 2002.</span></p>
<p><span> </span></p>
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Coffs Harbour has surprising strength as Sydney and Melbourne house prices also peaking: HTW property clock

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<p>There's an inflection point across the board, according to CoreLogic RP Data's head of research Tim Lawless, who looks at property markets across Australia.</p>
<p>The annual rate of growth has slipped to 8.7%, he advised.</p>
<p>You can watch the update <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b6OoEyY81J8" target="_blank">here</a>. </p>
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Video: CoreLogic RP Data's Australian housing market December 2015 recap

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<p><span>The Australian student housing market is set to gain from the fastest growing foreign student population in the world next year, creating a significant development and investment opportunity for domestic and international organisations, says new research by global real estate advisor Savills.</span></p>
<p><span>Enrolments by foreign students in Australia rose 10.1% to 348,000 enrolments in the year to March 2015, while its student housing sector recorded annual growth in the volume of beds of 4.3% between 1999 and 2014.</span></p>
<p><span>The number of beds is projected to grow at an annual rate of 4.7% to 2018 but the sector is expected to suffer a supply shortfall with the provision of purpose-built accommodation currently at just 7%.</span></p>
<p><span>The market therefore offers major development and investment opportunities, although competing bids from residential projects for sites in major cities such as Melbourne and Brisbane may drive up costs.</span></p>
<p><span>Typical prime initial yields stand at 7%, much higher than the UK (5%) and the US (5.75%).</span></p>
<p><span>Savills’ World Student Housing report says Australia is the third biggest destination for foreign students globally, and the third-most popular destination for Chinese students after the US and Japan.</span></p>
<p><span>Attracted by an enviable, if comparatively expensive, quality of life, globally-recognised institutions and relative proximity to south-east Asia, Australia’s student population is set to increase exponentially in the coming decades, it says.</span></p>
<p><span>“With the US market having reached maturity, and the UK having reported record investment volumes of $ 6.5 billion in the first three quarters of 2015, Australia’s growing popularity among students globally offers a potentially new and exciting opportunity," said Marcus Roberts, director of student investment and development.</span></p>
<p><span>"We’ve already seen some landmark deals in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane, but the market is relatively immature compared to the US and UK, and therefore presents good prospects for entrepreneurial capital and cash-rich organisations which have already cut their teeth in the US or UK."</span></p>
<p><span>He had a word of caution for investors, though, because the Australian government’s intention to remove the cap on tuition fees from 2016 could dent the country’s popularity.</span></p>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Housing to gain as Australia has fastest rise in foreign student population: Savills

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<p>The standout feature of Domain’s Top 10 prestige beach suburbs list is the remarkably poor performance on capital growth.</p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The best of them wouldn’t make the Top 10 list for capital growth rates in Melbourne, Perth, Darwin, Sydney or Brisbane – nor the Top 25 list of best performers in regional Australia. </span></p>
<p>One of the so-called Top 10, Noosa, has recorded zero growth over 10 years. This helps to confirm our ranking of Noosa as Australia’s biggest real estate lemon.</p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The Domain list of Top 10 prestige beach suburbs continues a grand tradition of Australian media publishing real estate lists that are pointless, inaccurate or farcical.</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">It says something about the mediocre performance of these apparently prestigious beachside locations that one of the Top 10 has recorded no growth at all over the past decade. </span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">It’s the antithesis of investment, which is meant to be about achieving growth. The only thing of value to owners in many of these ritzy locations is the ego trip. Beyond that, they’re crying all the way to the bank.</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">These locations, which include Brighton in Melbourne, Bronte in Sydney and Cottesloe in Perth, have all the qualities that many people imagine would make them out-performers on capital growth: great beaches, quality restaurants, wonderful amenities and top quality homes. </span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Many investors would rue their inability to afford to buy there and grow their wealth. But they need not concern themselves: there’s better capital growth in the middle market areas and the downmarket suburbs, which dominate the Top 10 growth lists in most of our major cities.</span></p>
<p>Remember that old real estate adage about property doubling in value every 10 years, which means a growth rate averaging better than 7% per year? It’s generally untrue. The best performers achieve it, but most properties do not. And certainly none of the Top 10 prestige beach suburbs have done so.</p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The No.1 ranked prestige beach suburb for capital growth, which apparently is Brighton in Melbourne, has managed growth averaging just 6.7% per year.</span></p>
<p>No.2 Portsea, also in Melbourne, recorded growth averaging only 5.55% per year. This is not a stellar performance, although the people who put together the list apparently thought it was.</p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Byron Bay, which according to Domain Group senior economist Andrew Wilson is “an exceptional market”, has averaged a mediocre 5.4% per year - a growth rate at which it would take over 13 years for values to double.</span></p>
<p>The bottom half the Top 10 list is made up of suburbs with growth rates that don’t even match inflation. </p>
<p>Main Beach on the Gold Coast has a growth rate of a little over 1% per year. Palm Beach in Sydney, where the median price is $2.7 million, has managed less than 1% per year.</p>
<p>To put these growth rates into perspective, the best suburbs in Darwin, Perth and Melbourne all have growth rates above 10% per year. The best in Sydney are above 9% per year.</p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">And, outside the capital cities, the Top 25 regional centres all have growth rates of 10% per year or better, with the top four achieving 15%-plus. </span></p>
<p>If you’d bought the typical Palm Beach property 10 years ago, you would have paid around $2.46 million and managed capital gains of around $220,000 a decade later. In real terms, you lost money.</p>
<p>If you’d spent that $2.46 million in the best-performing suburbs in Perth, Darwin, Sydney and Melbourne (you could have bought multiple properties in multiple cities for that sum), your capital gain would have been $4.2 million.</p>
<p>Which would you rather have: the prestige - or $4.2 million?</p>
<p> </p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"><em>Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a></em> </span></p>
<p> </p>
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Poor capital growth performance for beach retreats: Terry Ryder

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<div>One of the occupational hazards of middle age is that from the mouths of babes can spout seemingly simple questions which are devilishly difficult to answer. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This troublesome issue was highlighted in a wittily observed <em>Bigpond</em> advert a decade or so ago, in which a hapless father answers to his curious son that the Great Wall of China was built by "Emperor Nasi Goreng...to keep the rabbits out."</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>The difficulty in answering an apparently straightforward question such as "how much money is there?" is twofold. Firstly, this is because the answer depends on what you mean by "money". And secondly since the money supply is a moving target, by the time you have scraped together a coherent answer more money will inevitably have been created. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">How much money is there?</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>For those of us with bank accounts today, generally we don't come in to direct physical contact with most of our money. Instead, we just see a number on a screen which changes daily.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The latest figures from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) showed that the total there is more than $65 billion of currency and $250 billion of current deposits - for a total of just over $315 billion which is represented by the green line in the chart below and known as the "M1" measure of the money supply in circulation.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It's an arresting thought that in the years since I was born there is more than 30 times more M1 money knocking around in Australian circulation.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/23/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/11/23/A1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<span>Of course, as the above chart shows, the green line is only a small and increasingly insignificant part of the money supply, partly because today most of us use alternative forms of payment, including credit cards and EFTPOS.</span><br><br><span>The red line in the chart above (known as "M3") - which includes term deposits, certificates of deposit, and various other deposits from building societies and credit unions with banks - totals well over $1.8 trillion, the dollar value of M3 money in circulation having increased by more than 45 times over the same time period.</span>
</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/23/A1-1.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/11/23/A1-1.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Adding the green shaded areas in the graphic above (currency and current deposits, or "M1") to the blue shaded areas (the aforementioned other deposits) gets us to "M3", while there is a broader measure of money still, which funnily enough is known as "broad money" - it includes certain other borrowings denoted by the red shaded area.<br><br>All up the money supply comprises $1.83 trillion of broad money in circulation.</div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Boiling frogs</span></strong><br><br><div>One thing that we all learn in childhood is that if something that a lot of people want is scarce, then it tends to go up in value. Unfortunately, however, the supply of money has been anything but scarce. </div>
<div>
<br>While 6.3% growth in M3 money over the past 12 months (following on from 8% in the preceding year) may not sound like all that much, due to the power of compounding these cumulative increases in the money supply have snowballed into an enormous expansion.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This, of course, is why folk have tended not to leave large sums of money in their bank accounts earning low returns for too long, and often instead aim to invest in inflation-busting businesses, "hard assets" with intrinsic value such as gold and silver, or well-located residential property with a high land value component. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Over time we expect the price of quality assets in high demand to appreciate, while the value of any associated debt is surprisngly quickly inflated away. Only one decade ago the broadest monetary aggregate ("broad money") showed $784 billion of money supply in circulation, an amount which has comfortably doubled and then some to $1.83 trillion today.<br><br>Summarily there is well over double the amount of money chasing a limited supply of desirable assets. These figures are in themselves powerful enough, but in truth even the money supply in circulation represents only one part of the tale.</div>
<div> </div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Credit where it's due</span></strong><br><br><div>The other part of the story is that of "credit", being loans, advances and bills discounted to the private sector (but excluding loans made to other financial intermediaries).<br><br>Note in the chart below the massive surge in credit growth following the deregulation of the financial system in 1983 which lasted all the way through until the early 1990s "recession we had to have".</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/23/A3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/11/23/A3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>While there is not necessarily a link between the expansion of the broad money supply and growth in credit, the data over the long run suggests that a relationship between the two clearly exists, albeit a complex one.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>As explained by a Bank of England research paper last year, the way in which most money is created in a modern economy is through banks making loans. When a bank creates a loan, it also creates a deposit in the borrower's bank account (and in turn it follows that if a bank lends me money to buy your house, then that after the settlement you will have more money in the form of a deposit).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Thus, contrary to what you might intuitively expect, deposits are not created by households saving income, but by banks creating money through loans, although of course there is ultimately a speed limit as to how much banks can lend.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/20/A7.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/11/20/A7.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>The above chart shows what has happened to the amount of "narrow credit" (a measure which excludes securitisations) sloshing around Australia since 1976, which is to say that it has expanded at an even more furious pace from $36 billion to nearly $2.4 trillion, thereby increasing by an astonishing factor of more than 66 times. </div>
<br><div>While back in the year I was born housing accounted for only 24% of ourstanding credit (refer to the red shaded areas in the chart below), today that figure has expanded to 61%, with housing credit growth continuing to outpace the growth in lending to businesses.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/23/A5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/11/23/A5.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>There are a number of identifiable reasons for this trend, but probably the most significant of these is simply that banks love to lend against housing - for even if you default on a mortgage you cannot easily take the house with you, and in any case the land that it sits on isn't going anywhere.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There have been many predictions of falling house prices over the last decade, but a bet against housing has essentially been a bet against the above chart, which shows that over the past ten years the stock of outstanding housing credit has more than doubled, from approximately $700 billion to $1.5 trillion.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Of course, the price of all residential property has not increased as a result of this flood of credit. There is no scarcity of land in many mining regions, for example, and the demand for it has been declining in recent years, resulting in spectacularly crashing prices in many cases. Outer suburban Sydney property is now correcting sharply in some instances due to similar dynamics.<br><br>It would be true to say, however, that suburban land values in capital cites have generally been increasing strongly over time.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The outlook for credit growth</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Onthe subject of speed limits, the regulatory body APRA recently decreed that it would like to see lenders growing their investor mortgage books at a pace of no faster than 10 per cent per annum, and for this reason we can expect to see banks instead pushing products in their largest and most profitable market sector, being owner-occupier housing credit.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The private sector credit figures arguably represent one of the more significant indicators of what is happening in the domestic economy, and for this reason I analyse the data on this blog at the end of each calendar month. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>As I looked at in more detail at the end of last month the series showed that while commodity prices may be tanking over the year to September annual business credit growth moved up to a 79 month high of 6.3%, while housing credit growth had also accelerated to a 60 month high of 7.5%.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Now sure, 7.5% is certainly a lower level of growth for housing credit than we have seen in cycles past - mainly because we are starting from a higher base - yet if sustained it would be enough to more than double the stock of outstanding housing credit to beyond $3 trillion within the next decade, which is food for thought (gulp).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Whether or not banks can continue to expand owner-occupier credit growth will be one of the key housing market narratives to watch over through 2016. I'll analyse all the key figures here, of course. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

How much money is there? Pete Wargent

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<p><span>Migration is a key factor to the ongoing strength of Sydney's housing market and especially the rising demand for high rise apartments.</span></p>
<p><span>Most of the forecast growth in household numbers in Sydney is attributable to migration.</span></p>
<p><span>With forecast net overseas migration (NOM) of 240,000 per annum over the decade to 2022, the total number of households in Sydney will grow by 309,000. However, if NOM is nil, the local population growth in households in Sydney over the decade is estimated at 110,000.</span></p>
<p><span>The reason why migration is such a major contributor to household growth, especially in the young age cohorts, is that Sydney is the main settlement location for the recent surge in migrants holding temporary visas, mainly students, but also working holiday migrants, 457 visa holders and visitors.</span></p>
<p><span>This has not necessarily been a revolving door as thousands stay on by switching to other temporary visas or gaining permanent residence through sponsorship by employers and by marriage.</span></p>
<p><span>Currently Sydney is receiving some 28 per cent of Australia’s migrant intake - more than its proportional share by comparison as Sydney makes up 20 per cent of Australia’s current population.</span></p>
<p><span>Youthful migration is especially high as in 2013-14 around 16 per cent of the net inflow of movers to Australia were aged 15-19 and 23 per cent were aged between 20-24.</span></p>
<p><span>By comparison, only 6.3 and 7.0 per cent respectively of Australia’s population are in those two age groups.</span></p>
<p><span>The housing patterns of recently arrived migrants is highly diverse — but most disperse to live with a resident whether Australian-born or former migrant.</span></p>
<p><span>Only a minority of the recent migrants live in migrant only households, according to a recent report by academics Bob Birrell and David McCloskey from the Australian Population Research Institute. </span></p>
<p><span>Mostly in apartments, as significantly only 30 per cent of the migrants who arrived in Australia between 2006 and 2011 were living a separate house, compared with 71 per cent of the Australian-born persons living in Sydney.</span></p>
<p><span>The report suggested massive numbers of migrants live in tiny apartments totally unsuitable for raising a family.</span></p>
<p><span>"They are tiny because developers selling into overseas markets need to keep prices below $600,000."</span></p>
<p><span>As migrants extend their stay to between six and ten years (those arriving 2001 to 2005) the report noted the numbers living in separate houses had increased slightly.</span></p>
<p><span>The outcomes for Sydney, by comparison with Melbourne and the rest of Australia, are striking, the report suggested.</span></p>
<p><span>Just 44 per cent of these migrant-only households who arrived over the years 2001 to 2005 were living in a separate house in Sydney, compared with 65 per cent in Melbourne and 75 per cent for those living elsewhere in Australia.</span></p>
<p><span>Since many of the new migrant households will begin raising a family during the decade to 2022, they are forecast to will generate the need an additional 57,000 separate houses in Sydney.</span></p>
<p><span>But the report suggests the capacity of migrants to afford separate houses will continue at very low levels. </span></p>
<p><span>Furthermore Sydney's chronic low numbers of building approvals for detached dwellings – just 10,920 annually - would ensure competition for detached housing in the inner and middle suburbs was likely to intensify as young households look to switch away from apartments.</span></p>
<p><span>But these young migrant families will be forced to pursue their dream ever further towards the periphery of Sydney and perhaps beyond. And once there will have to make do with a semi-detached dwelling, rather than a detached house.</span></p>
<p><em>This article was first published in the Saturday Daily Telegraph.</em></p>
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