Queensland builder-developer MAYD has revealed the first look at its major North Kirra beachfront development, lodging amended plans that reduce the number of apartments and increase the proportion of larger residences.

The project is planned across a substantial 4,742 sqm amalgamated site spanning seven lots at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/2-6-pacific-parade-bilinga-qld-4225">2-6 Pacific Parade</a> and 27-33 Golden Four Drive in Bilin​ga, directly opposite Nor​th Kirra Beach.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mayd-group">MAYD</a> secured the site for $32.5 million in 2025, in what was one of the Gold Coast's largest property transactions of the year.

The development will be delivered across two stages, with the first stage carrying an estimated gross realisation value of around $360 million.

The latest amendments seek to reduce the overall apartment count and shift the project further toward the owner-occupier market, with larger residences designed for buyers wanting considerably more space than traditionally offered in a beachfront apartment.

The residential mix will include townhomes, oversized two-bedroom apartments, substantial three-bedroom residences and four-bedroom homes.

MAYD has appointed Cera Stribley to lead the architecture and interiors, with the Melbourne-based design practice drawing on the beachfront setting through a series of ocean-facing terraces and heavily landscaped balconies.

Strong horizontal forms and curved balconies will define the exterior, with subtropical landscaping integrated throughout the building to soften the built form and increase the connection between the residences and the beachfront.

The project will also include an extensive collection of resident wellness and lifestyle facilities, continuing the broader shift across the Gold Coast's luxury apartment market toward larger homes supported by resort-style amenity.

<img alt="MAYD" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1bcbb05-e659-4b47-8bd4-1e595315e2ad" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%202.05.03%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=jj0XEud1X1DuLt7_KyElhjMdZGOXmLHP" />

MAYD Founder Todd Mould said North Kirra was increasingly appealing to buyers attracted to the more established, lower-density character of the southern Gold Coast.

"North Kirra presents one of the most compelling luxury residential opportunities currently emerging in Australia, combining absolute beachfront with the character and authenticity that buyers are increasingly seeking, and the same sense of tight-knit community that defined Burleigh and Currumbin perhaps 10 or 15 years ago," Mould said.

"With Gold Coast Airport on its doorstep, it also offers a level of accessibility that broadens its appeal across almost every market demographic."

The project comes as the southern Gold Coast continues to attract an increasing share of high-end apartment development and buyer activity.

Kirra in particular has emerged as one of the region's more tightly held beachfront markets, with its relatively low-density character, established surf and hospitality scene and proximity to Gold Coast Airport differentiating it from the higher-density markets further north.

Mould said those characteristics had informed the approach MAYD and Cera Stribley had taken to the project.

"We've worked closely with Cera Stribley to create a vision that is deeply connected to its surroundings," he said.

"Inspired by the coastline itself, the architecture has been shaped around space, privacy and resort-style living, creating a collection of homes that reflects the next generation of luxury on the southern Gold Coast."

MOTIV Managing Director Carly Cottam, who has been appointed to market the project, said buyer attention had continued to move south along the Gold Coast.

"Purchasers who may once have defaulted to Broadbeach, Main Beach or Surfers Paradise are increasingly recognising the value of a genuine beachfront location that offers lower density, strong amenity and a more established sense of community," Cottam said.

"Kirra has a powerful combination of growing demand and genuine scarcity. Beachfront supply is inherently constrained, the area remains relatively low density, and buyers are increasingly placing a premium on locations that feel established, uncrowded and authentic rather than heavily developed."

Cottam said the proximity to Gold Coast Airport was also proving increasingly important for interstate and second-home buyers.

"Being minutes from Gold Coast Airport makes it particularly compelling for interstate buyers, frequent travellers and second-home purchasers who can access an authentic coastal lifestyle almost immediately after stepping off a flight."

The acquisition takes MAYD's active development portfolio to more than $500 million, with the North Kirra project representing one of its largest undertakings to date.

MAYD is targeting an early 2027 launch.

Joel Robinson

First look at MAYD's North Kirra mixed-use precinct

<main data-perf-region="main">
Castle Hill, the longtime hub of the Hills District, has been one of the major beneficiaries of Sydney's Metro expansion, with improved connectivity helping drive continued population growth, development and buyer demand across the Hills District.

But despite that growth, the suburb has seen relatively few major new apartment projects brought to market over the past 18 months.

Hills District developer Reve Group is looking to fill that gap with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nova-r-ve-castle-hill-2-garthowen-crescent-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Nova Rêve</a>, a major new mixed-use precinct on the corner of Garthowen Crescent and Old Castle Hill Road, a short walk from Castle Hill Metro Station and Castle Towers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377679]

The project will comprise three residential towers alongside a hotel, restaurants, cafes and a skybar, more than 1,600 sqm of ground-floor retail and almost an acre of landscaped gardens.

It represents the largest project undertaken by Reve Group, the development arm of the Kassis family, which has been building across the Hills District for more than 30 years through Kassis Homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377675]

Nova Rêve also represents a significant step up from the family's first apartment development, Grand Rêve, which was delivered nearby on Garthowen Crescent.

Grand Rêve introduced larger, house-like apartment layouts and premium inclusions including Wolf and Sub-Zero appliances to the Castle Hill market.

Nova Rêve takes that approach to a precinct scale, combining the residential component with hospitality, retail and substantial public and resident landscaping.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377685]

Reve Group Managing Director Sam Kassis said the project reflected the family's three decades of building in the Hills, which has evolved from trophy homes on quarter-acre blocks to larger-scale apartment development.

"Grand Rêve was our first apartment project here and it showed us what this pocket of Castle Hill could be. Nova Rêve is the refinement of that idea: not just apartments, but a place the whole suburb can use," Kassis said.

A key part of that approach is the hotel, which has been designed to operate as an amenity for the wider Castle Hill community rather than solely hotel guests.

It will include restaurants, cafes, skybars and all-day dining, alongside conference and event facilities catering to business functions, community groups and private events.

At ground level, more than 1,600 sqm of shops and cafes will open onto the surrounding streets and landscaped areas.

Almost an acre of gardens designed by Land and Form Studios will run through the precinct, incorporating pathways, seating, barbecue areas and children's play spaces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377680]

Reve Group's Romio Georges said creating an active ground plane had been central to the planning of Nova Rêve.

"There are gardens with pathways, barbecues, seating and play areas, shops and cafes opening onto the street, and a hotel with restaurants and a skybar that anyone in Castle Hill can walk into," Georges said.

The project's elevated position on one of Sydney's highest ridgelines will also provide apartments with outlooks toward the Sydney skyline, surrounding parkland and the Blue Mountains.

More than 80 per cent of the apartments will occupy corner positions, with Turner responsible for both the architecture and interiors.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152737]

<h3 data-end="3697" data-section-id="q3n5ak" data-start="3672">&nbsp;</h3>
</main>

Nova Rêve arrives as Reve Group bets on Castle Hill's next growth phase

A collection of just 25 large-format apartments and penthouses overlooking Goodwin Park is entering the Coolangatta market, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marea-residences-coolangatta-27-27a-dixon-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Maréa Residences</a> combining a low-density, residential-only approach with uninterrupted park and Pacific Ocean outlooks.

Located at 27 Dixon Street, Maréa comprises three and four-bedroom residences alongside a limited number of dual-level penthouses, with the project positioned between Goodwin Park and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/coolangatta-qld-4225">Coolangatta</a>’s coastal precinct.

Construction has commenced, with completion currently estimated for late 2027. Three-bedroom residences are priced from $1.8 million.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374005]

The project has been designed around its northern outlook across the park, with the building’s architecture, landscaping and material palette intended to establish a connection with the neighbouring green space. The residences have been configured to maximise natural light and views across Goodwin Park towards the ocean.

Inside, the material palette incorporates timber, stone and brushed brass, complemented by curved detailing and ambient lighting. Kitchens and bathrooms carry the same natural material approach, while residences also include basement parking, storage and lift access.

Maréa’s penthouses are arranged over two levels and include private pools, adding another layer to the project’s focus on larger-format apartment living. Across the development, residences are configured with three or four bedrooms rather than the broader mix of smaller apartment types commonly found in larger projects.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374010]

Resident amenity is concentrated at rooftop level, where landscaped entertaining terraces and pools take advantage of elevated views across Coolangatta and the Pacific Ocean.

The project has so far been particularly well received by local owner-occupiers and downsizers, according to Urban Activation Property Sales and Marketing Director Matt George, with the residential-only format, construction quality and northern park outlook among the features resonating with purchasers.

“The uninterrupted northern aspect overlooking Goodwin Park has been a key point of difference, with buyers attracted to the sense of serenity and open space the park provides, while still enjoying easy access to the ocean and being within walking distance of the lifestyle and amenities Coolangatta has to offer,” George said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374002]

“The combination of high-quality construction, a residential-only building, park outlook and proximity to the beach has resonated strongly with the local downsizer market.”

The Dixon Street address is within walking distance of Coolangatta Beach and the broader southern Gold Coast coastline, including the surf breaks at Snapper Rocks and Kirra. Coolangatta’s cafés, restaurants and retail are nearby, while Gold Coast Airport is also within close proximity.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150999]

Maréa Residences brings parkside apartments to Coolangatta

Melbourne developer PDG has secured Victorian Government approval for its $1.5 billion Southbank development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-one-1-queens-bridge-street-southbank-vic-3006">The One</a>, clearing the way for the long-dormant riverfront site opposite Crown to finally be developed.

The Minister for Planning has approved the project at 1-29 Queens Bridge Street, with the Department of Transport and Planning issuing the planning permit following its assessment.

The approval will allow PDG to develop the prominent 5,059 sqm site with a major mixed-use tower comprising premium apartments, including branded residences, a luxury hotel and boutique office space.

PDG acquired the site in late 2024, with its position directly opposite Crown's main entrance and near Melbourne's Arts Precinct making it one of Southbank's most significant remaining development opportunities.

<img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3933013e-6332-4386-b9be-089df05caf17" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.22%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sITIgBqDL0N3VNSMwWEmF5UA.uvcsRyu" />

Designed by COX in collaboration with ODO and PDG, the tower's architecture draws on the movement of the Yarra River, with six vertical pleats running the height of the sculpted facade.

The project will also see the heritage-listed Queens Bridge Hotel restored and incorporated into the development&nbsp;with new hospitality and public uses, including a rooftop venue.

A significant component of The One will be its residential amenity.

More than 5,000 sqm of resident facilities will be delivered across a single level, making it one of the largest consolidated residential amenity offerings proposed in an Australian apartment development.

The planning approval also incorporates a major upgrade of Queensbridge Square, which PDG will deliver in partnership with the City of Melbourne.

<img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="73167fcd-1031-4b6f-a408-a064cfe45ed1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.17%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=Pf1AEWxw6SNmBqR0zQW5lyEze.MtxgFp" />

The existing square will be revitalised as a new civic and pedestrian space along the Yarra River, strengthening the connection between the project, Southbank and the riverfront.

PDG Founder and Managing Director Vince Giuliano said the approval represented a major milestone for a site which has remained largely underutilised for more than 15 years.

“This is the most significant Planning Permit approval Melbourne has seen in recent years,” Giuliano said.

“For more than 15 years, this site has remained underutilised. This approval enables us to deliver a project that will contribute meaningfully to the revitalisation of Southbank, restore and reactivate an important heritage building, and create a new civic and hospitality destination for Melbourne.”

The latest approval follows an earlier planning permit issued by the City of Melbourne covering demolition works across part of the site at 9-29 Queens Bridge Street. Those demolition and early works are already underway.

PDG has also started generating early interest in the residential component from owner-occupiers ahead of a planned public launch in early 2027.

PDG secures approval for $1.5bn Southbank apartment development, The One

Local developer Harridan is seeking to turn its Woolloongabba apartment project into the first stage of a broader transformation of Burke Street, using a new 16-storey mixed-use building to establish a greener pedestrian connection toward the rapidly evolving Boggo Road transport and knowledge precinct.

The South East Queensland developer has filed plans for 154 apartments on the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/4-burke-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">southern side of Burke Street</a>, where its proposal has been designed alongside a wider vision by LatStudios for the street.

That vision positions the southern side of Burke Street for buildings of 15 storeys and above, while envisaging lower-rise development of up to five storeys on the northern side to transition into Woolloongabba's existing character housing. It also proposes wider pedestrian verges, deep planting, new street trees and upgrades to the pedestrian approach to Boggo Road Station.

The Harridan development itself has been designed by Brisbane-based Arqus Design and will comprise 154 apartments across 16 storeys. The mix is weighted heavily toward two-bedroom apartments, with 121 proposed alongside 10 one-bedroom and 23 three-bedroom residences. There will typically be around 14 units per floor.

A lower-ground car park and three podium levels will accommodate 156 resident parking spaces, along with visitor and commercial parking. There will also be 154 resident bicycle spaces and 40 visitor bicycle parks.

&nbsp;

Harridan is a family-owned developer and part of the Holmwood Highgate Group, with more than three decades of development activity across South East Queensland. Its portfolio spans residential, commercial and industrial property, with current residential projects including Riverbank on Byron in Bulimba, Esperance Residences in Carina and The Precinct at Kinross Road in Thornlands.

Wooloongabba has been popular for apartment developers, particularly since the announcement of the 2032 Summer Olympics games in Brisbane.

While there have been a lot of development applications, it has failed to materialize into real supply.&nbsp;

Sarazin has been the major player in the area. They are under construction at Murcia Residences, on the fringe of East Brisbane and Woolloongabba. They have just launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-stanley-residences-woolloongabba-8-trafalgar-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">The Stanley Residences</a>, in Woolloongabba on Trafalagar Street. They also have Nuage coming soon on the nearby <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nuage-woolloongabba-14-wellington-road-woolloongabba-qld-4102">Wellington Road</a>.

First look: Harridan plans Burke Street transformation beside Boggo Road transport hub

Housing Market

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVER
The latest available China housing data reports that the pick up in house price momentum in August was sustained in September, across both new and existing markets.
For new housing, 63 cities reported price gains in the month, broadly in line with August’s 64 and the recent peak of 65 in April 2016. Emphasising the breadth of the improvement in 2016, a year ago only 37 cities reported price gains.
The secondary market improved further in September with 60 cities reporting price gains in the month. That contrasts to 57 in August 2016; 54 in March 2016; and 40 a year ago. Only 7 cities are currently experiencing price declines – the best result for this metric since end-2013.
<a href="/images/2016/10/24/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-24%20at%2012.24.07%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/24/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-24%20at%2012.24.07%20PM.png" alt="">
Investigating annual price growth by tier, 2016’s key themes endured in September. Price growth of near 30 percent/yr continues to be seen on average in tier- 1 cities, across both new (29.4 percent/yr) and existing (33.0 percent/yr) markets.
Also, the tier-2 averages gained further momentum, from 9.1 percent/yr to 11.1 percent/yr for new and 7.6 percent/yr to 9.0 percent/yr for existing. Meanwhile, tier-3 price growth remains fickle, new and existing house prices up 6.6 percent/yr and 4.4 percent/yr respectively.
<a href="/images/2016/10/24/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-24%20at%2012.17.44%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/24/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-24%20at%2012.17.44%20PM.png" alt="">
As we have previously highlighted, the most interesting aspect of the price data is not the tier averages, but rather the city-by-city detail.
Herein we continue to see strong evidence of speculative demand, with a wide spectrum of price activity by city.
In tier-1, against the 29 percent/yr average result for new housing: Shenzhen price growth has slowed from near 63%yr in April to 34 percent/yr currently; over the same period, price growth has accelerated from around 17 percent/yr to 27 percent/yr and 23 percent/yr respectively in Beijing and Guangzhou. Shanghai has been stable near 30 percent/yr.
In tier-2, against the 11 percent/yr average: Hefei and Nanjing are currently seeing price growth of 46 percent/yr and 40 percent/yr, while many other cities such as Dalian are broadly flat year on year.
Similarly in tier-3, against its 6.6 percent/yr average for new housing, annual price growth varies between 47 percent/yr in Xiamen to –4.5 percent/yr in Jinzhou.
Clearly, cities with close ties to tier-1 and/or new industry are attracting investors (and owner occupiers); but elsewhere, demand is lacking.
<a href="/images/2016/10/24/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-24%20at%2012.19.11%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/24/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-24%20at%2012.19.11%20PM.png" alt="">
Given the disparate conditions across the nation, the divergence between sales and starts is likely to persist as significant inventory of unsold new homes lingers in many jurisdictions.
Indeed, even in areas where price growth has been strong, developers have cause to manage new supply carefully so as to see prices sustained at high levels. This is particularly true if authorities impose further restrictions in ‘overheated’ markets.
<a href="/images/2016/10/24/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-24%20at%2012.20.27%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/24/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-24%20at%2012.20.27%20PM.png" alt="">
As a consequence, while it has improved through 2016, growth in real estate investment is likely to remain soft relative to history, providing only modest support to manufacturing and commodity prices.
<a href="/images/2016/10/24/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-24%20at%2012.21.44%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/24/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-24%20at%2012.21.44%20PM.png" alt="">
As a final point, note that the strong price gains witnessed over the past year pose a risk to services activity into 2017. Chinese households remain willing to invest in property despite the higher cost, but doing so could crimp their ability and willingness to spend elsewhere. This is particularly true if job creation in the construction sector and related areas disappoints. 
<a href="/images/2016/10/24/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-24%20at%2012.22.47%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/24/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-24%20at%2012.22.47%20PM.png" alt="">
 
Elliot Clarke is senior economist, Westpac and can be contacted <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">here</a>.
</body></html>

jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Pick up in China housing data sustained: Westpac's Elliot Clarke

You don’t address housing affordability by crashing the housing market: Scott Morrison

<html><body>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/67536/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
Treasurer Scott Morrison has outlined his vision for increasing home ownership at a speech to the Urban Development Institute of Australia.
The Treasurer acknowledged it’s hard for first home buyers to get into the Australian housing market and suggested a number of barriers to increasing housing supply. We asked an expert panel to analyse these and suggest what other ideas they might have for easing the problem.
What the states need to do
Nicole Gurran, Professor of Urban and Regional Planning, University of Sydney
The Treasurer’s comments about the planning system are out of date. A decade of state reforms to alleviate supply constraints have enabled the inner city apartment boom, and generated a steady supply of outer suburban land to build on. 
With housing construction at record numbers, state planning systems are clearly able to respond to rising market demand. Putting aside questions about the location and quality of new housing, increased construction hasn’t delivered cheaper homes, nor does the Treasurer seem to want that. In fact, he spends much of his speech cautioning about risks to the housing market from the removal of negative gearing or from an over-supply of apartments.
With our housing system so dependent on the private sector, the real question is how to keep construction running when the market cools. If Treasurer Morrison is truly concerned about affordability he should also be asking how to secure affordable homes as part of new development, without lowering values across the established market.
Providing incentives for developers to provide affordable homes is an obvious solution and one that the property industry itself has been lobbying for. This entails government support to drive investment towards affordable rental housing and to enable a new range of housing products such as shared equity and low cost home ownership.
At present, only around 2 percent of new homes are delivered by affordable and non profit housing providers. A larger affordable housing sector, assisted by government to draw on innovative sources of institutional finance, would be able to sustain new housing construction, irrespective of the market cycle.
The commonwealth should negotiate with states so that infrastructure investment and land release is closely linked to mandatory targets for including affordable housing. This way opportunities for affordable homes can be secured before land values rise. This will help stabilise housing production while boosting the supply of well-located and affordable homes. 
Cutting the cost of infrastructure to go with housing
Robin Goodman, Deputy Dean of Sustainability at the School of Global, Urban and Social Studies and Joe Hurley, Senior Lecturer, Sustainability and Urban Planning, RMIT
The planning, cost and provision of adequate infrastructure may add to the cost of housing. But the real cost of housing must include the ongoing costs of living. These will be greatly increased if there is little or no public transport, schools, services and jobs in anywhere near close proximity. 
The growing difference between expensive and unaffordable locations and prices on the urban fringe, shows people buying houses value infrastructure and services and the access to opportunities these provide. Morrison’s view of the costs of infrastructure as impeding housing supply, suggests we should spend less on infrastructure. Were we to do this we would be significantly adding to this growing inequality which will have implications for both liveability and prosperity. 
The way infrastructure is funded at the moment is partially through contributions from property developers and some of this will be passed on to the home buyer, increasing purchase costs. Governments fund some infrastructure directly however the current federal government has been more prepared to do this with freeways and roads, but less so with public transport and facilities. Housing affordability is a broader problem which involves the costs of both buying and renting and the ongoing costs of living within a house and a city. 
Rather than reducing the funding of infrastructure, or absolving developers of making some contribution towards it, the real issue is accurately targeting investment to where it most needed. The most urgent need for new outer urban areas is for adequate public transport to begin to give all residents more equal access to jobs and opportunities. 
Releasing more land and relaxing regulations
Steven Rowley, Associate Professor of Economics and Property, Curtin University Business School
The core driver of new housing supply is profit and that profit is a result of demand (the revenue from sales) and cost (the physical construction, land, finance, taxes). There are many barriers to this profit and hence new housing supply. A solution often put forward, and we heard again from the treasurer, is removing land use planning regulations that unnecessarily impede housing supply. 
Sounds sensible, but it’s no good just randomly releasing land and expecting development to occur. Policy makers must understand that more land does not necessarily lead to more development. For example, why would developers flood a local market with new product of a similar type; it will just reduce prices and hence profitability.
Infill development, where development occurs within existing built up areas, was barely mentioned in the speech. States are grappling with the challenges of increasing proportions of new dwellings on infill sites in an attempt to tackle urban sprawl. Large scale, coordinated infill projects can deliver open space and amenity, adding quality to our existing urban areas. This scale will be difficult to achieve without public sector intervention.
Challenges abound in the infill space and include community opposition, upgrades to existing infrastructure and allowing for housing diversity (attached houses and low rise apartments, not just high density towers). If the government wants to make a difference to the supply of dwellings, in places where many people want to live, they need to facilitate development at scale and deliver significant affordable housing contributions on government-owned land. This will not be popular with local communities and local council members, but is essential in delivering the diverse housing essential in our cities. 
Planning where to put more houses
John Daley, CEO of The Grattan Institute
Treasurer Morrison is right, planning is the biggest lever to make housing more affordable. Current rules make it reasonably easy to build apartments in the CBD – so that is what we’re getting. But it also makes it very difficult to subdivide and create extra residences in the middle rings of our capital cities, up to 20km out of the CBD.
It’s important that new supply is focused on the inner and middle rings (2-20km out of the CBD) of our large capital cities. New developments on the edge tend to be a long way from where additional jobs are being created. Over half of the net growth in jobs in Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane in the last five years was within 10km of the CBD. 
<a href="/images/2016/10/25/image-20161024-26504-uo2gpc.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/25/image-20161024-26504-uo2gpc.png" alt="">
<h4>Grattan Institute, Author provided</h4>
Apartments in the CBD are never going to be enough to fill the demand for accessible housing – supply is limited by a very small area of land. There isn’t much governments can do about where employers decide to create jobs. But governments can set planning rules so that housing is built appropriately.
But unfortunately while Treasurer Morrison was spruiking the benefits of making it easier to subdivide and release land, he glossed over the impact on the prices of existing homes. And simultaneously he went out of his way to argue that reforms to negative gearing would both do nothing for housing affordability and lead to a crash in house prices.
Not all of these things can be true. By definition, if housing is more affordable, then prices are lower than otherwise. It would be more honest to recognise that changes to negative gearing will have less impact on home prices – and affordability – than to planning. On the other hand, changes to negative gearing will also reduce distortion in investment decisions, discourage excessive private sector leverage, and contribute to budget repair – outcomes which should all warm the cockles of a treasurer’s heart.
<div class="hover tooltip bottom">John Daley is chief executive officer, Grattan Institute and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/john-daley-1870" target="_blank">here</a>. Joe Hurley is senior lecturer, Sustainability and Urban Planning, RMIT University and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/joe-hurley-157161" target="_blank">here</a>.; Nicole Gurran is professor - Urban and Regional Planning, University of Sydney and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/nicole-gurran-759" target="_blank">here</a>. Robin Goodman is professor of Urban Planning, Deputy Dean, Sustainability and Urban Planning, RMIT University and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/robin-goodman-213975" target="_blank">here</a>. Steven Rowley, is director, Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute, Curtin Research Centre, Curtin University and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/steven-rowley-201914" target="_blank">here</a>.</div>
<div class="hover tooltip bottom"> </div>
<div class="hover tooltip bottom">All are authors for The Conversation.</div>
 
</body></html>

Solutions beyond supply to the housing affordability problem

<html><body>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/63880/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
Despite a relatively healthy supply-side picture for the general housing market, the expected trickle down of housing opportunities to low-income households in Australia has failed to materialise.
The UK Department for Communities and Local Government boasted this year of a seven-year high in construction starting on new houses; in the 12 months to December 2015, there were a little over 143,500 housing starts. With a population of 54.3 million, the English housing sector is adding one new dwelling for every 380 persons. 
Over the same period there were 231,411 housing approvals in Australia. With a population of 23.5 million in 2014, the Australian housing sector is adding one new dwelling for every 102 persons.
The supply of new housing has matched Australian population growth in recent times. The figure below profiles growth of the housing stock between 2006 and 2014, and compares it to population growth over the same period Australia-wide, as well as across the state capitals, Canberra and Darwin. 
Growth in the national housing stock has kept pace with population growth for almost a decade.
However, the picture differs across state and territory capitals. In Perth and Sydney, increases in the housing stock are insufficient to match the increase in these state capitals’ populations. But there are different patterns underlying this common outcome.
In Perth, population growth was exceptionally strong. It was faster than any other city: its population soared (by 2014) to more than 28% above 2006 levels. Such rapid growth would stretch the capacity of most housing construction sectors, even in the absence of any supply-side impediments. 
Sydney’s population growth (at 14%) is below the average across all cities (17%). Despite this relatively low increase in its population, housing supply failed to produce a matching increase in the housing stock. 
<h2>A housing system under pressure</h2>
The balance between growth in population and expansion in housing stock through new housing supply is thought to be relevant to an understanding of housing affordability pressures. New housing construction that matches population growth should ease price and rent pressures, where all else is equal. 
Although most new housing is built and sold in the higher price ranges and therefore purchased by higher-income groups, the housing they vacate will fall in price. It therefore becomes accessible to middle-income groups. And, as they shift upmarket, the housing they move out of falls in price and becomes accessible to lower-income households. 
Eventually, this filtering process opens up new opportunities for the homeless.
Housing affordability is generally thought to be worsening, especially for low-income households. Homelessness numbers remain stubbornly high. And official figures for June 2015 reveal there were 154,000 households on state housing authority waiting lists for public housing.
It is likely that the length of these waiting lists underestimates the need for public housing. We have modelled the income rules determining eligibility for public housing, and estimate that there are nearly 900,000 households satisfying these income eligibility criteria. 
More than two-thirds of these households (650,000) contain one or more persons who:
<ul>
<li>
are aged 65 and over; 
</li>
<li>
have a long-term health condition or disability; or
</li>
<li>
have children aged under 15.
</li>
</ul>
These are people who value the security of tenure that has typically been offered by public housing, but who are unlikely to be able to buy their own homes. There are nearly 1 million individuals in these households – a group that is currently ill-served by Australia’s housing system. 
<h2>Housing solutions through private-public partnerships</h2>
The need for new housing solutions for these low-income groups is clearly a pressing requirement. However, raising the capital funding to expand public or social housing to meet their housing needs seems improbable. 
Secure leasing is a private-public partnership option that offers a rent premium to those private landlords willing to offer long-term leases to those satisfying the income tests for public housing. They would also be either of pension age, disabled or caring for children. 
In the unregulated Australian rental housing market, leases are almost always short term. This gives landlords the option to realise investments in the near term. Hence, a long-term lease proposal requires Australian governments to offer landlords a rent premium to compensate them for the money sacrificed when they enter into a long-term arrangement.
Consider a reform scenario in which landlords are given an incentive to offer five-year secure leases to households eligible for public housing who are now living in the private rental sector, with rent increases capped at increases in the consumer price index over the secure lease period.
We estimate that, over five years, the budgetary cost to the government to house these 650,000 households in secure lease arrangements is A$13.4 billion.
The uneven distribution of these households across states and territories means the program’s cost varies across the five most-populous states. Our estimates are $4.7 billion in New South Wales, $3 billion in Victoria, $2.5 billion in Queensland, $1 billion in South Australia, and $1.8 billion in Western Australia – with the remainder borne by Tasmania and the territories. 
This cost is much more affordable than the capital funding required to expand the social housing stock through the construction of new social housing dwellings.
The Australian tax system currently provides indirect support for the supply of private rental housing through tax concessions such as negative gearing and capital gains tax discounts. Is it now time to harness some of the private investment stimulated by these concessions to help improve the supply of affordable and secure housing opportunities for low-income households.
Gavin Wood is professor of housing, RMIT University and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/gavin-wood-113723" target="_blank">here</a>.
Rachel Ong is deputy director, Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre, Curtin University and author for The Conversation. She can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/rachel-ong-113482" target="_blank">here</a>.
</body></html>

Can the private rental sector provide a secure, affordable housing solution?

<html><body><div class="page" title="Page 1">
<div class="section">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
GUEST OBSERVER
The six month annualised growth rate in the Westpac- Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, rose from +0.15 percent in August to +0.58 percent in September. 
<div class="page" title="Page 1">
<div class="section">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
The September reading is the second consecutive above trend result and follows fifteen months of persistent below trend reads. It is the strongest growth rate recorded since December 2013 and a clear positive signal for the near term economic outlook. That signal is broadly consistent with Westpac’s forecast for growth to hold around a 3 percent pace over the course of both this year and next. 
The Leading Index growth rate has lifted sharply over the last six months from a 1.18 percent below trend reading in April to the current 0.58 percent above trend result. While all components have contributed to the improvement the main lift continues to come from ‘offshore developments’. Nearly two thirds of the gain has come from the combination of: a rally in commodity prices (+0.51ppts); a modest recovery in US industrial production (+0.40ppts) and globally-driven improvements in financial conditions reflected in the sharemarket (+0.20ppts) and the yield spread (+10ppts) components.
<a href="/images/2016/10/19/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-19%20at%2010.46.54%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/19/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-19%20at%2010.46.54%20AM.png" alt="">
 
That said, we continue to see some improvement in in local components as well with a notable positive from stabilising labour market conditions (aggregate hours worked contributing +0.40pts) and modest support from consumer sentiment and dwelling approvals (contributing +0.15ppts on a combined basis). 
The Reserve Bank Board next meets on November 1. A significant number of commentators have been predicting a rate cut in November and a few weeks ago markets had been giving around a 50 percent probability to a move. We were never convinced that the inflation report which is due to be released on October 26 would provide the case for a cut. In fact, with a 0.3 percent/qtr reading for underlying inflation dropping out, it seems likely that the September quarter report will actually show that annual underlying inflation has lifted. 
<div class="page" title="Page 1">
<div class="section">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
It has also become clear that ‘financial stability’ concerns will be given considerable weighting in policy deliberations. In his maiden speech this week Governor Lowe clearly stated these had already factored in recent policy decisions and would continue to be given prominence. With Sydney house prices having been reported to have lifted by 3.5 percent and Melbourne by 5 percent in the last three months the risks of further boosting housing with another rate cut will be a significant consideration for the Board. 
Indeed while we give little probability to a further rate cut at the next meeting our assessment of the growth outlook, including the shape of the construction cycle, points to rates remaining on hold for the foreseeable future.
BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div></body></html>

jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Risk of boosting housing with another rate cut a significant consideration for RBA: Westpac's Bill Evans

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVER
The property market fundamentals of Australia’s biggest city council are as bent as a banana.
While rates of population growth continue to ease, the high volumes of new housing supply are absurd, and the situation with Brisbane jobs is not as rosy as the state government are trying to portray.
Whilst Brisbane City Council (BCC) has the highest population out of all of Australia’s 550 local government authorities, its population growth rate has come down a long way from the dizzy heights which it consistently produced throughout the noughties decade. Its 2015 growth rate of 1.4 per cent is now back in line with the national average.
<a href="/images/2016/10/18/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-18%20at%208.16.18%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/18/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-18%20at%208.16.18%20AM.png" alt="">
In spite of the distinct easing in population growth (housing demand) the rates of new housing supply have gone in the other direction, scaling record levels.
During the four years ending June 2010, BCC’s population increased by 85,313, thereby creating demand for an additional 32,809 dwellings (BCC has 2.6 people per household according to 2011 Census); 28,409 new dwellings were approved.
Contrast this to the most recent three years, additional housing demand was 17,285 (based on population growth of 51,804) yet a staggering 47,977 new dwellings were approved. As shown in Chart 2, things are completely out of whack.
84 per cent of approvals over the last three years were for attached dwellings. Obscene!
<a href="/images/2016/10/18/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-18%20at%208.17.48%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/18/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-18%20at%208.17.48%20AM.png" alt=""> 
In 2014 and 2015, most property pundits repeatedly predicted that Brisbane’s property market would follow in the footsteps of Sydney and Melbourne; often referring to a ‘knock-on effect’ and Brisbane’s more affordable housing as their so-called ‘research’. Conversely, Propertyology downgraded its outlook for Brisbane in early 2014, instead forecasting that Brisbane was likely to see only modest price growth unless something significant occurred to help turnaround Queensland’s disappointing economic performance.
Median property values subsequently increased in Brisbane by 4 percent (2014) and 4.3 percent (2015), well below Sydney (15.1 percent and 15.1 percent) and Melbourne (9.1 percent and 12.7 percent).
<a href="/images/2016/10/18/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-18%20at%208.18.47%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/18/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-18%20at%208.18.47%20AM.png" alt=""> 
On the surface, Greater-Brisbane’s unemployment rate of 4.9 percent [June 2016] looks very favourable compared to national and state averages of 5.8 percent and 6.3 percent, respectively. But, here’s the thing: a decline in Brisbane’s unemployment rate from 7.4 percent in February 2014 to the current 4.9 percent is totally at odds with the lack of confidence demonstrated by Brisbane business owners.
Where are all of these jobs that the Queensland state government continues to refer to in press release after press release since coming in to office in January 2014?
A close examination of the detail behind the employment data clearly illustrates that the economic reality is different to the broad-brush unemployment rate. According to official ABS data, the 46,921 extra jobs created in Queensland during the period February 2014 to May 2016 represents 9.1 per cent of jobs of the 517,333 jobs created nationally. Given that Queensland represents 20.3 per cent of Australia’s total population I’d say that banana-benders have been batting well below their weight!
<a href="/images/2016/10/18/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-18%20at%208.19.48%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/18/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-18%20at%208.19.48%20AM.png" alt=""> 
Further analysis of individual industry sectors suggests that Queensland’s economic engine has actually seized up. Of the 46,921 extra jobs created, public administration, health and education have collectively increased by 51,622 over the period. One can’t help but scratch their head and question why, with a significantly smaller population than New South Wales and Victoria, that Queensland added more jobs in the Public Administration sector (8,838 additional taxpayer-funded government jobs) than any other state.
Sixteen out of nineteen industry sectors collectively LOST 4,701 jobs.  
<a href="/images/2016/10/18/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-18%20at%208.21.10%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/18/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-18%20at%208.21.10%20AM.png" alt="" width="583" height="583">
The 25,300 jobs lost in Queensland’s mining industry will include plenty of white collar jobs in Brisbane’s CBD where, according to Property Council of Australia, commercial office vacancy rates rose to 16.9 per cent in August 2016.
The most compelling statistic is the 22,167 jobs lost in Queensland’s retail sector; cash register activity is one of the most reliable measurements of a community’s economic pulse. Job numbers in the Retail Trade sector have increased in every Australian state except Queensland.
New South Wales and Victoria’s impressive volume of jobs growth in retail trade reflects the confidence shown at auctions and open homes. On the other hand, property sales volumes in Brisbane City Council declined from an already modest level over the last twelve months (2.8 per cent fewer house sales and 17.2 percent fewer apartments).
<a href="/images/2016/10/18/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-18%20at%208.23.11%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/18/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-18%20at%208.23.11%20AM.png" alt="">
If Brisbane can get its act together, its property market does have potential. But, jobs and confidence are the key. Unlike New South Wales where an infrastructure boom is unfolding, the Queensland public voted against an asset sale proposal to fund new infrastructure projects. The Legacy Way tunnel and Moreton Bay Rail Link projects have recently been completed and there are very few new infrastructure projects in the pipeline.
Queensland’s third biggest employment sector, the 223,000 people construction industry, lost 8,095 jobs between February 2014 and May 2016 and, with an over-supply of housing already brewing, further construction industry job losses would have to be on the cards without several new infrastructure projects.
<a href="/images/2016/10/18/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-18%20at%208.24.06%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/18/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-18%20at%208.24.06%20AM.png" alt=""> 
Yes, property is much more affordable in Brisbane than in Sydney and Melbourne. But, Queensland’s interstate migration trend is (again) falling and few people will relocate without being exceptionally confident of their employment prospects. The under-performing economy is why Brisbane’s property market hasn’t found its way out of first gear.
And, the ridiculous volume of new housing supply may soon see that gear changed to neutral. Propertyology will continue to invest in locations across Australia where cash registers are ringing louder than Brisbane.
Simon Pressley is Managing Director of Propertyology, a REIA Hall Of Fame Inductee, property market analyst, accredited property investment adviser, and Buyer’s Agent. <a href="https://www.propertyology.com.au/more-than-a-buyers-agent/" target="_blank">Propertyology works exclusively with property investors</a> to purchase properties in strategically chosen locations all over Australia.
</body></html>

Answers to Brisbane property market found in cash register:  Simon Pressley

<html><body>
Tighter lending to investors is tipped to soften the Australian residential property market during the next three years, improving affordability and creating opportunities for owner occupiers, according to QBE’s Housing Outlook 2016-19.
The QBE commissioned BIS Shrapnel report, now in its 15th year, is an annual overview of the Australian housing market and forecast movements.
Brisbane is forecast to experience the highest house price growth of the three largest capital cities to June 2019, while Brisbane unit prices are expected to fall by a cumulative 8.2 percent in the same period.
Sydney house prices are tipped to remain flat in the period to June 2019, while unit prices are forecast to fall 6.8 percent cumulatively during the next three years.
Melbourne house and unit prices are forecast to decline, with units expected to decline by a total of 9 percent to June 2019, according to the report.
Nationally, slowing rental and price growth is likely to contain investor appetite for residential property, and recent tightening in bank lending policy towards overseas investors will also slow overall investor demand, the QBE Housing Outlook finds.
QBE Lenders’ mortgage insurance chief executive officer Phil White said it was a fascinating time to be looking at the Australian residential property and mortgage market. 
“Prices are forecast to soften through the three years to 2019, which is likely to be positive for housing affordability.”
Fewer investors are now entering the market due to banks tightening lending criteria. In 2015/16 investors accounted for 44 percent of all residential loans, compared to 51 percent in 2014/15, according to the report.
“It’s expected owner occupiers, including first home buyers, will be stepping in to pick up some of this opportunity in the market.”
Phil White said meeting the long-term demand for housing with the limited availability of land in most of our capital cities, will remain a significant challenge for State and Territory governments and underpin long-term property prices.
Sydney
Sydney's median house price reached $1.048m at June 2016 and is forecast to rise by 1.7 percent to $1.065m by mid-2017 before decreasing to $1.055m by June 2018 and $1.050m by June 2019, resulting in median house price growth being effectively flat by the end of the forecast period.
Price growth in the Sydney unit market has been below that of the house market. Sydney’s median unit price rose by an estimated 41 percent in the four years to June 2016. However, price growth has already started to flatten with the median unit price growing by just 3 percent in 2015/16.
Sydney’s median unit price growth is forecast to fall 1.8 percent in 2016/17 and cumulatively by 6.8 percent during the three years to June 2019 to a median unit price of $680,000.
Melbourne
The underlying demand and continued growth of the Melbourne house market has been underpinned by a strong population increase, with Victoria recording a net boost of 11,000 people in the year to June 2016. This population growth has continued to maintain a deficiency of dwellings in the Melbourne market despite continued growth in new dwelling supply.
Melbourne will see dwelling completions peak in 2016/17. Short term population growth is expected to ease and a 0.6 percent price decline in the median house price is forecast for the period ending 2018/19.
Record levels of unit completions and a strong project pipeline are expected to affect Melbourne’s median unit price, which is forecast to decline by a total of 9 percent to June 2019.
Brisbane
Moderate house price growth in Brisbane during the past four years is in line with Queensland’s challenging economic conditions. Without strong employment drivers, Queensland is not expected to be able to capitalise on Brisbane’s affordability advantage over Sydney and Melbourne.
Nevertheless, an overall dwelling deficiency should help to support Brisbane’s median house price that is forecast to rise by 6.5 percent to June 2019, the highest price growth during this period of the three largest capitals.
Perth
After peaking in December 2014, Perth’s median house price declined by 5.6 percent in the eighteen months to June 2016. Mining investment is now greatly reduced and economic conditions have weakened. Perth’s median house price is forecast to decline by 3 percent to June 2018 while the forecast median house price at June 2019 is expected to be 10% below its 2014 peak.
Overall, the Perth market is expected to weaken across both housing and unit markets. The median unit price was down by 6.5 percent to June 2016 with further declines totalling 6 percent forecast in 2016/17 and 2017/18 before prices decrease further to June 2019.
Adelaide
The median house price in Adelaide is forecast for limited growth of around 0.9 percent in 2017/18 and an overall decline of 1.3 percent is forecast by June 2019. Adelaide’s unit and apartment market is expected to remain relatively flat during the next three years declining a total of 0.6 percent to June 2019, moving in line with the forecast for house prices.
Hobart
Hobart’s median house price is forecast to rise around 4% per annum or at a cumulative rate of 12.5 percent by June 2019. With investor activity declining, the softness in the unit market is expected to continue to dampen demand, limiting median unit price growth to between 1 percent and 2 percent per annum through to 2018/19.
Darwin
Darwin’s median house price is forecast to decline by 6.3 percent by June 2019. Median unit prices are expected to decline by 4 percent in 2016/17 followed by further declines of 4 percent and 2 percent in subsequent years to take the median unit price 10% lower by June 2019.
Canberra
Canberra’s median house price is forecast to rise by 3.5 percent in 2016/17 with a further growth of 2.4 percent and 2.3 percent in the two years to June 2019. In contrast, the median unit price fell 2.6 percent in 2016 and a further downside of 4 percent is forecast in 2016/17 and 2018/19 by which time the dwelling supply is expected to peak and be absorbed by June 2019.
</body></html>

j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Brisbane houses top QBE price growth forecast, but units tipped to fall: QBE Housing Outlook 2016-19

<html><body><div class="page" title="Page 1">
<div class="section">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
GUEST OBSERVER 
Expensive housing and high household debt leave Australian housing vulnerable. But without a recession or much higher interest rates a property crash is unlikely.
However, the surging supply of apartments and the continuing strength of the Sydney and Melbourne property markets pose an increasing risk. Average dwelling prices in these cities are likely to see another cyclical 5-10 percent price downswing around 2018, with unit prices in oversupplied areas likely to decline 15-20 percent.
The combination of high house prices, huge gains in Sydney and Melbourne, low rental yields and a coming surge in the supply of apartments mean property investors need to be careful. Best to focus on undersupplied, less loved parts of the property market. 
Housing matters a lot in Australia. Having a house on a quarter acre block is part of the "Aussie dream". Housing is a popular investment destination. And the housing cycle is a key component of the economic cycle and closely connected to interest rate movements.
But in the last 15 years or so it has taken on a darker side as a surge in house prices that started in the late 1990s has led to poor affordability and gone hand in hand with surging household debt. Reflecting this, predictions of an imminent property crash bringing down the Australian economy have been repeated ad nauseam since 2003.
This note looks at the risks of a property crash, particularly given the rising supply of units, implications from the property cycle for economic growth and how investors should view it.
High house prices and high debt
The big picture view on Australian residential property is well known. First, Australian housing is expensive. According to the 2016 Demographia Housing Affordability Survey the median multiple of house prices in cities over 1 million people to household income is 6.4 times in Australia versus 3.7 in the US and 4.6 in the UK. In Sydney it’s 12.2 times and in Melbourne it’s 9.7 times.
The ratios of house price to incomes &amp; rents are at the high end of OECD countries and have been since 2003.
Second, the surge in home prices has gone hand in hand with a surge in household debt, which has taken Australia’s household debt to income ratio from the low end of OECD countries 25 years ago to now around the top. This can be seen in the next chart which shows the deviation in the house price to income ratio against its long term average for Australia against the ratio of household debt to income. The shift to overvaluation and high debt mostly occurred over the 1995-2005 period. 
<a href="/images/2016/10/13/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-13%20at%209.09.15%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
</div>
<div class="column">
<div class="page" title="Page 1">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
 <img src="/images/2016/10/13/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-13%20at%209.09.15%20AM.png" alt="">
How did it come to this?
While it’s common to look for scapegoats to blame for high home prices and debt the basic driver looks to be a combination of the shift from high to low interest rates over the last 20-30 years which has boosted borrowing and buying power and the inadequacy of a supply response (thanks to tight development controls, restrictive land release and lagging infrastructure) to suppress the resultant rise in the ratio of prices to incomes.
The following chart shows a cumulative shortfall of over 100,000 dwellings relative to underlying demand had built up by 2014. 
<a href="/images/2016/10/13/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-13%20at%209.11.08%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<div class="page" title="Page 1">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<img src="/images/2016/10/13/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-13%20at%209.11.08%20AM.png" alt="">
<div class="page" title="Page 1">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
A home price crash remains unlikely
The surge in prices and debt has led many to conclude a crash is imminent. But we have heard that lots of times over the last 10-15 years. Several considerations suggest a crash is unlikely.
First, we have not seen a generalised oversupply and at the current rate we won’t go into oversupply until around 2017-18.
Second, despite talk of mortgage stress the reality is that debt interest payments relative to income are around 2004 levels.
Third, Australia has still not seen anything like the deterioration in lending standards seen in other countries prior to the GFC. In fact in recent years there has been a decline in low-doc loans and a reduction in loans with high loan to valuation ratios. 
<a href="/images/2016/10/13/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-13%20at%209.12.51%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/13/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-13%20at%209.12.51%20AM.png" alt="">
Finally, it is dangerous to generalise. While property prices have surged 60 percent and 40 percent over the last four years in Sydney and Melbourne, they have fallen in Perth to 2007 levels and have seen only moderate growth in the other capital cities.
But the risks on the unit supply front are a concern
To see a property crash - say a 20% plus average price fall - we probably need to see one or more of the following:
A recession – much higher unemployment could clearly cause debt servicing problems. This looks unlikely though.
A surge in interest rates – but rate hikes are unlikely until 2018 and the RBA knows households are more sensitive to higher rates so it’s very unlikely rates will reach past highs. 
However, the risks on the supply front are clearly rising in relation to apartments where approvals to build more apartments are running at more than double normal levels. 
<div class="page" title="Page 2">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column"><a href="/images/2016/10/13/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-13%20at%209.16.36%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="column"><img src="/images/2016/10/13/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-13%20at%209.16.36%20AM.png" alt=""></div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">
<div class="page" title="Page 2">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
Due to the rising supply of units, vacancy rates are trending up &amp; rents are stalling, making property investment less attractive.
<div class="page" title="Page 2">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
Outlook 
Nationwide price falls are unlikely until the RBA starts to raise interest rates again and this is unlikely before 2018 at which point we are likely to see a 5% or so pullback in property prices as was seen in the 2009 &amp; 2011 down cycles. Anything worse would likely require much higher interest rates or recession both of which are unlikely. However, it’s dangerous to generalise: 
<div class="page" title="Page 2">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
Sydney and Melbourne having seen the biggest gains are more at risk and so could fall 5-10% around 2018. 
<a href="/images/2016/10/13/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-13%20at%209.18.26%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/13/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-13%20at%209.18.26%20AM.png" alt="">
</div>
</div>
</div>
 
<div class="page" title="Page 2">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
Price growth is likely to remain negative in Perth and Darwin as the mining boom continues to unwind but this should start to abate next year. 
The other capitals are likely to see continued moderate growth and a less severe down cycle in or around 2018. 
But units are at much greater risk given surging supply and this could see unit prices in parts of Sydney and Melbourne fall by 15-20% as investor interest fades as rents fall. 
The property cycle and the economy 
Slowing momentum in building approvals points to a slowdown in the dwelling construction cycle ahead. While this might be delayed into 2017 as the huge pipeline of work yet to be done is worked through, slowing dwelling investment combined with a slowing wealth affect from rising home prices mean that contribution to growth from the housing sector is likely to slow. However, as this is likely to coincide with a fading in the detraction from growth due to falling mining investment and commodity prices it’s unlikely to drive a slowing in the economy. 
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<a href="/images/2016/10/13/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-13%20at%209.21.32%20AM.png" target="_blank"> Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/13/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-13%20at%209.21.32%20AM.png" alt="">
<div class="page" title="Page 2">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
However, a likely decline in rents (as the supply of units hits) will constraint inflation helping keep interest rates low for longer. 
Implications for investors 
There are several implications for investors: 
Firstly, over the very long term residential property adjusted for costs has provided a similar return to Australian shares.
Its low correlation with shares, lower volatility but lower liquidity makes it a good portfolio diversifier with shares. So there is clearly a role for property in investors’ portfolios. 
<a href="/images/2016/10/13/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-13%20at%209.23.09%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/13/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-13%20at%209.23.09%20AM.png" alt="">
<div class="page" title="Page 2">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
Secondly, there remains a case to be cautious regarding housing as an investment destination for now. It is expensive on all metrics and offers very low income (rental) yields compared to other growth assets. This means a housing investor is more dependent on capital growth. 
Thirdly, these comments relate to housing in aggregate and right now it’s dangerous to generalise. Apartments in parts of Sydney &amp; Melbourne are probably least attractive but for those who want to look around there are pockets of value. 
Finally, investors need to allow for the fact that they likely already have a high exposure to Australian housing. As a share of household wealth its nearly 60%. Once allowance is made for exposure via Australian shares it’s even higher. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://plus.google.com/110172465327488162875?rel=author" target="_blank">SHANE OLIVER</a> is head of investment strategy and economics and chief economist at <a href="https://www.ampcapital.com.au/home" target="_blank">AMP Capital</a> and is responsible for AMP Capital's diversified investment funds.
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div></body></html>

The Australian housing market - Shane Oliver on the surging unit supply, the economy and what it all means for investors

<html><body>
Houses in Dubbo, the NSW Central Coast and Newcastle remain at the top of the latest property clock from analyst firm Herron Todd White.
All three locations were at the peak of the market cycle in September and remain so in October.
Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide houses are in a rising market.
Gold Coast houses are approaching the peak of the market.
<a href="/images/2016/10/11/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-11%20at%2010.48.05%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/11/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-11%20at%2010.48.05%20AM.png" alt="" width="749" height="453">
<div class="page" title="Page 10">
<div class="section">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
According to Herron Todd White the price point which most favoured within the Newcastle patch for the 30 to 40 age group of second home buyers and upsizers is between $500k - $700k.
"This demographic of families is purchasing their next home within the price point of approximately $500,000 to $700,000 which will purchase the extra bedroom and second bathroom within the desirable 20 minutes of the Newcastle CBD," HTW said.
"Specifically it is the well performing suburbs of Hamilton, Mayfield, Lambton, Adamstown and Charlestown where capital growth for 2016 is between 5.3 percent and 10.5 percent. 
<div class="page" title="Page 10">
<div class="section">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
"There is a combination of factors as to why this price point and demographic is the most active, which also goes hand in hand with why the Newcastle property market is at peak levels.
"Investors are continuing to experience difficulty entering the market due to lending restrictions, even though there is con dence in property growth. First home buyers are having very little success securing a property as the lower end of the market is also in high demand from the same 30 to 40 years age group of buyers who have the skills and experience to extend and renovate."
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</body></html>

Dubbo, Newcastle and NSW Central Coast houses at market peak: HTW

<html><body>
Finance commentator and Channel 7's Sunrise breakfast host, David Koch has offered six signs which show the housing market could be about to change.
"The recent Reserve Board minutes showed it was quite comfortable with the state of the property market," he told the Telegraph.
"Some international commentators however are predicting an imminent crash in values."
He said that rather than speculate, the more important thing is to understand the major signals which could points to a change in the property market.
1. Rising interest rates
"Borrowing money has never been cheaper," David says.
Record low interest rates have meant property buyers have been borrowing more for less.
But this period of easy money can lead to a financially deadly "debt trap" for those who overdo it.
A rise in interest rates on a four percent home loan doesn't sound much until you realise it would mean a 50 percent jump in repayments.
2. Rising unemployment 
With 25 consecutive years of positive economic growth, the job market has been pretty solid and unemployment has been relatively low.
That has been good news for the property market because stable employment gives buyers the confidence to get into the market or trade up.
If the economy slows, the job market deteriorates, unemployment rises, incomes become uncertain, confidence falls and property prices suffer.
3. Falling auction clearance rates
Auction clearance rates are a regular, consistent barometer of a property market health.
It's an indicator on the balance between buyers and sellers, which is the fundamental supply and demand foundation of all property markets.
The higher the clearance rate, the healthier the market as it indicates there are plenty of buyers competing for stock on the market. 
4. Rising vacancy rates
Investors buy property for both capital growth and income from rents.
The key to making an investment property stack up financially is they must have tenants paying rent.
Rising property vacancy rates means there aren't enough tenants to go around so investors will either have to slash their rents to attract tenants or sell the property.
5. Falling rental yields
Linked to increasing rental vacancy rates.
A property is valued on the rental income it can produce and its capital growth prospects from rising values.
If vacancy rates rise, landlords will have to lower their rents to attract tenants or the property will be vacant and earn no income.
6. Above-average construction numbers
 Property is about demand and supply.
If construction outstrips demand then values will fall as sellers compete to attract buyers.
That's the current concern about the Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane inner-city home unit market.
A huge amount of construction is under way and there are fears that when these developments are finished, there will be an oversupply and values will fall.
</body></html>

Housing Market

Editor's Picks

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News

Housing Market

Editor's Picks

Receive the latest news stories to your inbox

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News