<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/consolidated-properties">Consolidated Properties Group</a> (CPG) is approaching the launch of its latest Brisbane riverfront development, Castile, on the dress circle Skyring Terrace in Newstead.</p>

<p>VIP buyers are now being engaged, with a full public sales launch coming later this year.</p>

<p>Positioned as the final opportunity to secure a new absolute riverfront residence on the East bank of Newstead, Teneriffe or New Farm, Castile at 47 Skyring Terrace has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/woods-bagot">Woods Bagot</a> as a timeless addition to the Brisbane skyline.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150489 project_image_fid=371113]</p>

<p>The name Castile draws on themes of permanence, sophistication and legacy, reflecting a broader vision centred on enduring architecture and timelessness in the rarest of riverfront positions.&nbsp;</p>

<p>CPG Chairman and CEO Don O’Rorke said the project had been envisioned as a future Brisbane icon.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“With 47 metres of direct river frontage and never to be built out views, 47 Skyring Terrace is the definitive address on the Brisbane River,” O’Rorke said.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150489 project_image_fid=371114]</p>

<p>“Rather than following trend-based apartment design, Castile draws inspiration from Brisbane’s great heritage buildings, reinterpreting classical architecture into a contemporary riverfront landmark designed to stand proudly for the next 100 years,” he said.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The approved development will comprise 227 apartments across a 25-storey tower alongside a boutique six-storey riverfront building of just 12 residences.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Construction is scheduled to commence in September 2026.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150489]</p>


Joel Robinson

CPG unveils Castile Newstead ahead of upcoming sales launch

<p>Australia’s online shopping habits have shifted dramatically over the last decade. As eCommerce volumes surged, so too did the frustrations that came with traditional parcel delivery: missed deliveries, long Post Office queues, parcel theft and the challenge of being home during business hours.</p>

<p>Australia Post’s Parcel Lockers emerged as one of the more practical responses to that changing consumer behaviour.</p>

<p>What started as a relatively niche delivery option has evolved into a nationwide network of more than 1,400 self-service Parcel Lockers positioned at train stations, shopping centres, supermarkets and Post Offices across the country. The system allows Australians to send, collect and return parcels 24 hours a day, fundamentally changing how many people interact with deliveries.</p>

<p>The appeal is relatively straightforward: flexibility.</p>

<p>Instead of waiting at home for a delivery driver or rushing to a Post Office before closing time, users can direct eligible parcels to a Parcel Locker location of their choice. Once the parcel arrives, Australia Post sends a notification with a collection code or QR access through the AusPost app, allowing customers to retrieve their package at any time within the collection window.</p>

<p>For apartment residents in particular, the system has become increasingly valuable.</p>

<p>Higher-density living has created logistical challenges around deliveries, especially in buildings without concierge services or secure parcel rooms. Missed deliveries are common, while parcel theft has become an increasing concern as online shopping volumes continue to rise.</p>

<p>Australia Post itself has repeatedly highlighted the growing issue of “porch pirates” during peak shopping periods, encouraging customers to use Parcel Lockers as a safer alternative to unattended home deliveries.</p>

<p>That security aspect is one of the key reasons the Australia Post Parcel Locker network has grown so rapidly.</p>

<p>Parcel Lockers are positioned as secure, monitored collection points that reduce the risk of theft while also improving delivery efficiency for Australia Post. Instead of multiple redelivery attempts, parcels can be consolidated into a single secure destination.</p>

<p>The Parcel Lockers themselves are free to use through a MyPost account and support a range of parcel sizes up to 16 kilograms and dimensions of approximately 35 x 44 x 61 centimetres.</p>

<p>Beyond receiving parcels, the system has increasingly become integrated into the broader eCommerce ecosystem.</p>

<p>Customers can now use Parcel Lockers to return online purchases, while retailers have embraced the model as a way to improve delivery success rates and reduce friction in the shopping process. Australia Post has actively expanded partnerships with major retailers and promoted Parcel Lockers as part of a broader out-of-home strategy.</p>

<p>The timing of that expansion aligns with broader changes in Australian shopping behaviour.</p>

<p>The acceleration of online retail during and after the pandemic placed enormous pressure on delivery infrastructure. Parcel volumes reached record highs, particularly during Black Friday and Christmas periods, with Australia Post delivering more than 100 million parcels during peak festive seasons.</p>

<p>That growth forced logistics providers to rethink the “last mile” of delivery, widely regarded as the most expensive and operationally difficult stage of the process.</p>

<p>Parcel Locker systems have increasingly been viewed as part of the long-term solution.</p>

<p>The concept itself is not unique to Australia. Parcel Locker networks have become common globally, particularly across Europe and Asia, where dense urban environments and apartment living create similar logistical challenges. But Australia’s geography and suburban sprawl made adoption slower initially.</p>

<p>Now, however, the convenience factor is driving mainstream usage.</p>

<p>For commuters, Parcel Lockers near train stations allow parcels to be collected on the way home from work. For apartment dwellers, they remove the uncertainty around access and missed deliveries.</p>

<p>The rise of the AusPost app has also streamlined the experience, centralising notifications, tracking and Parcel Locker access into a single platform. Australia Post has increasingly pushed customers toward app-based delivery management, partly as a way to combat phishing scams and fake delivery notifications, which have become more sophisticated in recent years.</p>

<p>The Parcel Locker model is also beginning to influence property development itself.</p>

<p>Parcel management has become a growing consideration in apartment building design, particularly as online shopping becomes embedded in everyday life. Many new residential developments are now incorporating dedicated parcel rooms or Parcel Locker systems into foyers and communal spaces.</p>

<p>For developers, parcel management is increasingly viewed as part of the broader resident amenity offering, alongside gyms, wellness spaces and communal work areas.</p>

<p>That reflects a wider evolution in how residential buildings are designed.</p>

<p>Apartment buyers are placing greater emphasis on convenience, security and operational functionality, particularly in higher-density urban environments. Parcel delivery, once considered a minor operational detail, has become an increasingly important part of that equation.</p>

<p>Australia Post’s Parcel Locker network sits at the centre of that behavioural shift.</p>

<p>What began as a simple alternative delivery option has evolved into a key piece of infrastructure supporting Australia’s growing eCommerce economy and changing urban lifestyles.</p>

<p>And as online shopping continues to expand, the role of Parcel Lockers is likely to become even more embedded in how Australians live, shop and receive goods.</p>


How Australia Post Parcel Lockers changed parcel delivery convenience in Australia

<p>Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.</p>

<p>Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;</p>

<p>David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]</p>

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

<p>Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;</p>

<p>At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.</p>

<p>Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.</p>

<p>Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]</p>

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

<p>Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.</p>

<p>David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.</p>

<p>“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;</p>

<p>Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]</p>

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

<p>While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;</p>

<p>However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.</p>

<p>Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;</p>


Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.</p>

<p>The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.</p>

<p>Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.</p>

<p>“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.</p>

<p>“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”</p>

<p><img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" /></p>

<p>Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.</p>

<p>The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.</p>

<p>“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.</p>

<p>“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”</p>

<p><img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" /></p>

<p>Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.</p>

<p>“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.</p>

<p>The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.</p>

<p>“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”</p>

<p>The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.</p>

<p>The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.</p>


Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

<p>Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.</p>

<p>Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.</p>

<p>The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.</p>

<p>“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.</p>

<p>“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.</p>

<p>“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”</p>

<p>The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.</p>

<p>“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”</p>

<p>From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.</p>

<p>“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”</p>

<p>The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.</p>

<p>“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.</p>

<p>Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.</p>

<p>“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.</p>

<p>“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”</p>

<p>The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.</p>

<p>“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.</p>

<p>Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>


Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

Housing Finance

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<div>I took a look at the Housing Finance figures for December previously. In this post, I'll just add a few sundry thoughts.<br><br>There are always plenty of angles put forward for why the housing market must be struggling, or will be set to struggle in due course, true enough.<br><br>And indeed, some locations are struggling, no question about that - mainly comprising mining towns, or regions being heavily impacted by the ongoing collapse in mining investment.<br><br>Anecodotally, mortgage lending has also perhaps been a little bit slower in January. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>It was interesting to note, however, that the raw original data (without seasonal adjustments applied) recorded $35,961,746,000 of dwelling finance commitments in the month of December, an increase of $2.3 billion or +6.7 per cent from one year ago.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>I'm no incurable optimist, but there's not too much wrong with the health of the lending market on that evidence. In fact it was the highest figure ever recorded for a single month.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/02/15/A7.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<p><img src="/images/2016/02/15/A7.jpg" alt=""> </p>
<p><span><span>Refinancing is evidently a complicating factor, as you can see in the chart above, but the value of loans actually advanced in December was up by +24.6 percent to its highest ever level at $23.8 billion.</span></span><br><br><span>I noted on </span>Twitter<span> last week that the average loan size figures seemed to have gotten a little ahead of themselves, and sure enough there was a pullback in December to a somewhat more believable $377,600, althought this is still +11.2 per cent higher than one year ago, and the figure still looks rather overstated. </span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/02/15/A2.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2016/02/15/A2.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Construction continues</span></strong><br><br></p>
<div>Much has also been written about the imminent downturn in residential construction sector. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In one sense this is a truism since construction activity is also now tracking at its highest every level, and clearly this dynamic cannot continue in perpetuity. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, the most recent housing finance figures suggested that there is still a fair amount of juice in the tank. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The rolling annual value of commitments for investor construction, which is a handy indicator if not anything more concrete than that, is up by +27.6 percent from one year ago. The equivalent figure for owner-occupier purchase of new dwellings is up by +15.7 percent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/02/15/A4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/02/15/A4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>The number of commitments for new dwelling purchase also jumped in December to 3,579 in original terms, and you would have to go back a long, long way to find a stronger monthly result than that. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/02/15/A6.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2016/02/15/A6.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>Major renovation activity has been marginally improved in recent months from 2014 levels, but in reality this has been almost exclusively a Sydney trend through this cycle to date. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/02/15/A3.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2016/02/15/A3.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">First time buyers are active</span></strong><br><br><div>The latest figures showed an increase in first homebuyer owner-occupier activity of +4.6 percent to 15.1 percent of all loans written. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/02/15/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/02/15/A1.jpg" alt=""></div>
</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span><span>If you include first time buyer investors from industry surveys, the total figure for first time buyers is tracking around 50 per cent higher than this.</span><br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong><br><br><span>Overall, it is clear that there has been a behavioural shift between lenders and borrowers towards favouring owner-occupier mortgages over investment loans, the lines between which have become hopelessly blurred.</span><br><br><span>The headline figures show that in aggregate housing finance remained relentlessly strong through 2015, even if some mining regions are feeling the burn.</span><br><br><span>According to CoreLogic-RP Data Sydney posted Very solid preliminary auction clearance rate of 78.6 per cent from 469 auctions, well ahead of the preliminary clearance rate for Melbourne at 72.6 per cent.</span><br><br><span>Vendors seem a bit more realistic, and these are still relatively low volumes. Most signs point to a steady Sydney market in 2016.</span><br><br><span>Westpac's forecasts for economic growth from 2015 to 2017:</span></span></div>
<div><span><span> </span></span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/02/15/GROWTH.jpg" target="_blank"><span><span>Click to enlarge</span></span></a></div>
<div><span><span><img src="/images/2016/02/15/GROWTH.jpg" alt=""></span></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
<div><span><span> </span></span></div>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Housing market in good health: Pete Wargent

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<p><span>Australian households are saddled with more debt in relation to the size of the economy than any other country, according to a new report published by LF Economics.  </span></p>
<p><span>In a piece written for <em>The Guardian</em>, Philip Soos from LF Economics said Australia's household sector has accumulated massive unconsolidated debt compared with other countries and as of the third quarter of 2015 has become the world's most indebted household sector relative to GDP.</span></p>
<p><span>"Denmark long held this unholy accomplishment, but has been slowly deleveraging over the last several years as its housing bubble peaked and burst during the GFC," he said.</span></p>
<p><span>"The latest debt-financed boom in Sydney and Melbourne<a class=" u-underline" href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/jul/23/sydney-house-prices-jump-22-in-one-year-to-reach-1m-median-report-says" data-link-name="in body link" data-component="in-body-link"> </a>has resulted in Australia now overtaking Denmark, a comparison of official figures from Australia and Denmark has shown.</span></p>
<p><span>"Australia has around $2 trillion in unconsolidated household debt relative to $1.6 trillion in GDP. Australia’s ratio is 123.08%, while Denmark’s fell slightly to 122.99% in the third quarter of 2015, a marginal difference of 9 basis points. Although Denmark holds the record in terms of peak debt of 140.14% in the last quarter of 2009, as Australia continues to leverage and Denmark deleverages the current gap between the two will widen."</span></p>
<p><span>He said a</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">part from Switzerland, which with Denmark has a negative interest rate, no other country is close in terms of having such extreme household sector debts. </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The UK ratio is 85.9% while in the US it is 79.1%.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/01/19/CYue0tBUsAADkVH.jpg-large.jpeg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2016/01/19/CYue0tBUsAADkVH.jpg-large.jpeg" alt=""></span></p>
<p>Soos, <em>the co-author of Bubble Economics: Australian Land Speculation 1830-2013 and co-founder of <a class=" u-underline" href="https://www.lfeconomics.com/" data-link-name="in body link" data-component="in-body-link">LF Economics</a>, says o</em><span>ver the last two decades, Australia has been beset by rampant housing price inflation.</span></p>
<div id="dfp-ad--inline1" class="js-ad-slot ad-slot ad-slot--dfp ad-slot--inline ad-slot--inline1" data-link-name="ad slot inline1" data-test-id="ad-slot-inline1" data-name="inline1" data-mobile="1,1|300,250" data-mobile-landscape="1,1|300,250" data-tablet="1,1|300,250" data-node-uid="27">
<div class="ad-slot__label" data-test-id="ad-slot-label">
<span>"Since 1996, prices have outpaced fundamentals such as inflation, incomes, construction costs, rents and GDP, making it difficult for potential first home buyers to enter the market "</span><a class=" u-underline" href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/jan/14/melbourne-rent-hits-record-high-as-agents-report-high-demand" target="_blank" data-link-name="in body link" data-component="in-body-link">while lower income households and marginal groups struggle to afford decent shelter.</a>"</div>
</div>
<p>He calculates between 1996 and 2015, housing prices (adjusted for inflation and quality) have boomed by 141%, "without a large and obvious downturn."</p>
<p>"Contrary to the analyses of the vested interests, the data clearly establishes Australia is in the midst of the largest housing bubble on record," he concludes.</p>
<p><span>"Only a couple of housing market metrics is needed to identify a bubble, and are now considered commonplace: nominal price to inflation, price to income and price to rent. </span></p>
<p><span>"On all three, Australia is both historically and internationally at or near the top."</span></p>
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po-LsXgBTHBmX

Soos in The Guardian: How Australian households became the most indebted in the world

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>How are Australia’s states and territories performing? Each quarter CommSec attempts to find out by analysing eight key indicators: economic growth; retail spending; equipment investment; unemployment; construction work done; population growth; housing finance and dwelling commencements.</p>
<p>Just as the Reserve Bank uses long-term averages to determine the level of ‘normal’ interest rates; we have done the same with key economic indicators. For each state and territory, latest readings for the key indicators were compared with decade averages – that is, against the ‘normal’ performance.</p>
<p>NSW has retained top spot as the best performing economy, edging a little further ahead of Victoria. Both states are maintaining a healthy lead over the other states and territories.</p>
<p>The big change over the past quarter has been the lift of the ACT economy to equal third position alongside the Northern Territory. Western Australia has dropped from fourth to fifth. But there is little to separate the ACT and the Northern Territory in the second grouping of economies. In the third grouping of state and territory economies, Queensland is sixth ranked, ahead of the South Australia (seventh) and Tasmania (eighth).</p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/01/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-27%20at%209.38.04%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/01/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-27%20at%209.38.04%20AM.png" alt="" width="749" height="620"></p>
<p>NSW has retained its top rankings on population growth, retail trade, dwelling starts and housing finance but now adds unemployment and equipment investment to the list. NSW is still fourth-ranked on construction work done and fifth ranked on economic growth.</p>
<p>Victoria has lost a little ground on NSW but is solidly in second spot on the economic performance rankings. Victoria’s main strengths are population growth and housing finance (second ranked) and dwelling starts and retail trade (third ranked on each indicator).</p>
<p>The Northern Territory remains the third ranked economy, but now shares that position with the other territory – the Australian Capital Territory.</p>
<p>Northern Territory is top ranked on construction work done and is second ranked on economic growth, business investment and unemployment. But the ‘top end’ economy is last ranked on population growth and housing finance.</p>
<p>The ACT economy lifted to equal third courtesy of improved rankings on equipment investment and dwelling starts. The ACT is also third ranked on economic growth, population growth and housing finance. Western Australia is in fifth spot on the economic performance rankings. <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">While top ranked on economic growth, it is bottom ranked on equipment investment and unemployment.</span></p>
<p>Queensland is now in sixth position on the economic performance table. Best rankings are retail trade and dwelling starts (fourth ranked on each indicator). South Australia remains in seventh spot on the economic performance rankings.</p>
<p>South Australia does best on population growth and housing finance (both fourth ranked) but is seventh or eighth on three indicators. Tasmania remains at the bottom of the Australian economic performance table. Tasmania is third ranked on unemployment (previously first) and weakened from third to sixth on housing finance.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/01/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-27%20at%209.42.20%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/01/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-27%20at%209.42.20%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Ideally gross state product (GSP) would be used to assess broad economic growth. But the data isn’t available quarterly. Rather, state final demand (household and business spending) is added to exports less imports to act as a proxy for GSP.</p>
<p>Exclusion of the trade sector would provide an incorrect assessment of growth for economies such as Western Australia and Queensland. The only major change in the rankings since the last quarter has been at the top of the leader-board with Western Australia now on top from Northern Territory.</p>
<p>Now while economic growth has slowed in both economies over the past year, the current level of economic activity is still higher than the ‘normal’ or decade-average level of output in percentage terms than the comparison for other economies.</p>
<p>Western Australian output is just under 19 per cent higher than the decade average level of output, from Northern Territory (18.1 per cent), ACT (up 11.6 per cent), Victoria (up 10.8 per cent) and NSW (up 10.1 per cent).</p>
<p>At the other end of the scale, economic activity in Tasmania in the September quarter was just 1.6 per cent above its decade average, while South Australian activity was higher by 8 per cent and Queensland economic activity up by 9.2 per cent.</p>
<p>Victoria now has the fastest annual economic growth rate in the nation, up by 3.4 per cent on a year ago, ahead of ACT with 2.6 per cent and Tasmania (2.3 per cent). By contrast, the Northern Territory economy is down 13.9 per cent on a year ago, while Western Australian economic activity is down 1.6 per cent on a year ago with the Queensland economy down 0.2 per cent on a year ago.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/01/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-27%20at%209.44.56%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/01/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-27%20at%209.44.56%20AM.png" alt="" width="807" height="337"></p>
<p>The measure used was real (inflation-adjusted) retail trade in trend terms with September quarter data the latest available. NSW has held on to the top spot on the retail rankings from Western Australia and Victoria with spending in the September quarter 17.0 per cent above decade-average levels. Solid activity in the housing sector, lower unemployment and higher home prices are supporting spending.</p>
<p>Spending in Western Australia was 14.3 per cent above decade-average levels with a legacy of the mining boom – higher income levels – supporting spending. Spending in Victoria was up 13.8 per cent on the decade average followed by Queensland (up 11.5 per cent).</p>
<p>In fifth spot was the Northern Territory with spending 10.5 per cent above decade averages. Tasmania continues to record the weakest result on retail spending, up 6.8 per cent on the decade average, just below South Australia with 6.9 per cent growth and the ACT with 8.3 per cent growth.</p>
<p>If monthly retail trade was assessed instead to calculate the rankings (November data available), the rankings would be slightly different with Victoria in second spot and South Australia in eighth position. In terms of annual growth of real retail trade, Victoria is strongest, up 4.0 per cent, from NSW, up 3.7 per cent, and South Australia, up 3.6 per cent.</p>
<p>And looking at monthly retail trade, the strongest annual growth is again in Victoria (up 5.8 per cent) from Tasmania (up 4.8 per cent) and NSW (up 4.7 per cent).</p>
<p>NSW is now on top on equipment investment from the Northern Territory, further highlighting the transition in the economy after the resources boom. Equipment spending in the September quarter was just under 5 per cent above ‘normal’ – or decade-average levels.</p>
<p>In the June quarter Northern Territory equipment spending was 20.2 per cent above decade-averages. Now spending is up by just 1.5 per cent. South Australia has held onto third spot, up 1.2 per cent above decade-average levels, followed by ACT (up 0.2 per cent). By contrast, other states and territories had equipment spending below decade averages in the September quarter.</p>
<p>Weakest was Western Australia (down 30.5 per cent) followed by Tasmania (down 17.0 per cent) and Queensland (down 10.1 per cent). Equipment spending in Victoria was down on decade average levels, but just by 1.5 per cent. On a shorter-run analysis, equipment investment in the September quarter was higher than a year ago in only three of the state and territory economies (last quarter, five states and territories had equipment spending up on a year ago).</p>
<p>Equipment investment is up the most on a year ago in the ACT (up 12.6 per cent), followed by Tasmania (up 7.8 per cent) and Victoria (up 2.7 per cent). By contrast new equipment investment in the Northern Territory was down 30.6 per cent on a year ago while spending in Western Australia was down 30.1 per cent with Queensland down 10.3 per cent.<br><br></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/01/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-27%20at%209.47.32%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/01/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-27%20at%209.47.32%20AM.png" alt="" width="757" height="302"></p>
<p>Which state or territory has the strongest job market in the nation? It is not an easy question to answer. The lowest trend unemployment rate in Australia can be found in the Northern Territory at 4.1 per cent from NSW and the ACT at 5.2 per cent. But the ACT jobless rate is over 44 per cent above its decade average. And Northern Territory’s jobless rate is 0.7 per cent above its decade average (“normal”) jobless rate.</p>
<p>However the NSW jobless rate is actually 2.4 per cent lower than the decade average. In further comparing current jobless rates in each state and territory with their respective decade averages, Tasmania follows NSW and Northern Territory, its 6.6 per cent jobless rate is 8.7 per cent above the decade average.</p>
<p>In Victoria, unemployment stands at 5.9 per cent, up 9.0 per cent on its decade average of 5.4 per cent. At the other end of the scale is Western Australia. Trend unemployment stands at 6.4 per cent, 47.8 per cent higher than the 4.3 per cent ‘normal’ or decade-average. Next weakest is the ACT – as noted above the trend unemployment rate is 44.4 per cent above the decade average.</p>
<p>South Australia’s jobless rate is 28 per cent above the decade average, while Queensland is mid pack – its 5.9 per cent jobless rate is up 12.5 per cent on the ‘normal’ level. Unemployment rates in NSW, Victoria, Queensland, South Australia and Northern Territory have all eased in trend terms in the past three months.</p>
<p>The measure used for analysis was the total real value of residential, commercial and engineering work actually completed in trend terms in the September quarter. In five of the states and territories, construction work was higher than decade averages.</p>
<p>Leading the way was the Northern Territory with construction work done almost 117 per cent above its decade average with activity associated with the gas projects providing solid support. Next strongest was Western Australia (up 35.1 per cent) while construction work done in Victoria was up by 17.2 per cent on ‘normal’ levels in trend terms. Construction work done in both economies was well up on a year ago in the September quarter.</p>
<p>NSW is fourth ranked with construction work 7.2 per cent above decade averages. Tasmania is fifth ranked with construction work 0.7 per cent above ‘normal’ levels. In Queensland, overall new construction work completed in the September quarter was almost 19 per cent below the decade average, weaker than the 11 per cent decline recorded in the June quarter.</p>
<p>Next weakest to Queensland was the ACT where construction work was 12.1 per cent below decade averages, followed by South Australia (down 1.6 per cent). In terms of annual growth rates, Western Australian construction work done in the September quarter was up 13.3 per cent on a year ago, followed by Victoria, up 11.5 per cent. Other economies had construction work lower than a year ago, led by Queensland, down by 30.5 per cent – the biggest annual decline in records going back over 26 years.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/01/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-27%20at%209.49.58%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/01/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-27%20at%209.49.58%20AM.png" alt="" width="698" height="299"></p>
<p>The measure used was the trend number of dwelling commencements (starts) with the comparison made to the decade-average level of starts. Starts are driven in part by population growth and housing finance and can affect retail trade, unemployment and overall economic growth. However any over-building or under-building in previous years can affect the current level of starts.</p>
<p>The outlook for home building remains strong over the next year but a slowdown can be expected later in 2016 as the surge in the supply of new homes meets pent-up demand. The slowdown in population growth will also restrain future home building. NSW retains the mantle of the strongest in the nation for new home construction, with starts almost 72 per cent above decade averages.</p>
<p>In addition, in the September quarter the number of dwellings started was 24.6 per cent higher than a year earlier. The ACT has replaced Victoria in second spot, with starts 48.2 per cent above decade averages. Victorian starts are 38.3 per cent above decade averages and Queensland starts are up 26.7 per cent. At the other end of the scale, South Australian dwelling starts were 3.0 per cent below decade averages.</p>
<p>And in the September quarter starts were down 2.6 per cent on a year earlier. Next weakest was Northern Territory (down 2.8 per cent from decade highs) from Tasmania (up 12.6 per cent on the decade average) and Western Australia (up 16.1 per cent on the decade average). In terms of annual growth, the ACT is strongest with dwelling starts at record highs in trend terms in the September quarter, up 44.3 per cent on a year ago.</p>
<p>In the June quarter, NSW was alone in recording a fall in real wages. However in the September quarter, wage growth in all states and territories was above that of consumer prices.</p>
<p>Strongest real wage growth was again recorded in the Northern Territory with wages 2.0 percentage points (pp) higher than consumer prices. Wage growth was second highest in the nation while inflation was the lowest. Real wage growth was next highest in three economies – Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania – with wages 1.2pp above consumer prices (inflation).</p>
<p>At the other end of the scale, NSW wage growth of 2.2 per cent was just above the 1.9 per cent annual growth of prices. Despite that, retail spending still remains firm in NSW. Real wages remains only modestly positive in Queensland (+0.5pp) and Western Australia (+0.9pp).</p>
<p>Turning to home prices, in December four of the capital cities had positive annual growth of home prices. Back in June, similarly four of Australia’s capital cities had home prices higher than a year earlier. Strongest growth in home prices was in Sydney (up 11.5 per cent) followed by Melbourne (up 11.2 per cent) and then there was a fair gap to the other capital cities. Next strongest were Brisbane and Canberra with prices in both cities up 4.1 per cent on a year ago. Home prices were lower than a year ago in Perth (down 3.7 per cent), Darwin (down 3.6 per cent), Hobart (down 0.7 per cent), and Adelaide (down 0.1 per cent).</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/01/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-27%20at%209.53.11%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/01/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-27%20at%209.53.11%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Currently we look at eight indicators to get the broadest assessment of economic performance. If we added new motor vehicle registrations to the list the only change in the overall economic rankings would be the ACT taking third position on its own.</p>
<p>NSW has a solid grip on the top ranking of economic performance. Unemployment has improved while population growth is above long-term averages, thus providing solid momentum to the economy.</p>
<p>Victoria also still has a strong grip on the second ranking but hasn’t been able to narrow the gap with NSW. Victoria still has the strongest population growth in the nation, underpinning retail and housing activity.</p>
<p>The ACT has been the big improver in the rankings and a sharp lift in dwelling starts is a clear reason for the improvement. Stronger housing activity will support the job market and retail spending over 2016.</p>
<p>The Northern Territory will face challenges in the next few years as key resource projects are either completed or near completion. Slow population growth, weak demand for housing loans and a sharp fall in dwelling starts will constrain economic momentum. Western Australia continues to slip in the performance rankings, having relinquished top spot in October 2014.</p>
<p>Slower population growth and higher unemployment will constrain activity in the housing market. Queensland remains in the third tier of economies alongside South Australia and Tasmania. Encouragingly, however, unemployment has fallen to two-year lows in trend terms.</p>
<p>And dwelling starts have lifted to 7½ year highs. The South Australian job market has improved in the past eight months. If the positive trend continues, then there is scope for an improvement in retail spending. The Tasmanian economy continues to struggle for momentum. In October, trend unemployment had fallen to near 4-year lows. While unemployment has lifted in the past two months, real wage growth remains healthy.</p>
<p><em>Craig James is chief economist, CommSec and Savanth Sebastian is economist, CommSec. Both can be contacted <a href="https://www.commsec.com.au/" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
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CommSec's State of the States shows NSW as best performing economy: Craig James

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<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Housing finance data for November 2015 was released this month by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed that on a seasonally adjusted basis, the value of housing finance commitments rose by 1.8% in November to $33.3 billion.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/01/18/Chart-1-1-580x208.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2016/01/18/Chart-1-1-580x208.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p>Looking at the different components of mortgage lending, it shows that the value of commitments to owner occupier non-first home buyers (subsequent buyers who are generally either upgrading or downgrading) is now greater than the value of commitments to investors. </p>
<p>With mortgage rates remaining low and competition from lenders being fierce, refinance activity continued to trend higher while demand from the first home buyer segment of the market remains quite weak.  As investment demand has faded, this demand has been replaced by demand from owner occupiers, mainly those upgrading or downgrading.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/01/18/Chart-2-1-580x207.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2016/01/18/Chart-2-1-580x207.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span>In November 2015 there was $21.8 billion worth of housing finance commitments to owner occupiers.  These commitments were split between $1.9 billion for construction of dwellings, $1.2 billion for purchase of new properties, $7.1 billion for refinances and the remaining $11.6 billion for purchase of established properties.  </span></p>
<p><span>A</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">s the chart shows, demand for new properties (construction and purchase of new) is fairly flat while refinance commitments and those for the purchase of established homes continues to rise strongly. Interestingly after its recent low of $17.6 billion in commitments in May 2015, the value of owner occupier commitments has increased by 23.3% to November 2015. </span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">If you look at the actual number of owner occupier housing finance commitments over the same period they have increased by a much lower 11.8%. This would suggest that although the number of commitments to owner occupiers is rising, the increase in the value of commitments is being exacerbated by borrowers taking out larger mortgages.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/01/18/Chart-3-580x210.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2016/01/18/Chart-3-580x210.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p>The value of investor housing finance commitments was recorded at $11.5 billion in November 2015.  Investor mortgage demand has fallen sharply since peaking at $14.2 billion in April 2015, down -18.7% to November 2015.  Although investor mortgage demand has slowed sharply over recent months, it actually rose by 0.7% over the month.</p>
<p>It is important to remember that the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority’s (APRA) guidelines aim to limit housing credit (total value of outstanding mortgages) to investors at 10% per annum.  Investor credit growth was recorded at 9.1% over the year to November 2015, comfortably within these guidelines.  Given this, it is no surprise we have seen a small bounce in investor mortgage demand and we may see further moderate increases over the coming months as lenders aim to grow investor credit at close to the 10% threshold.</p>
<p>Demand remains for mortgages despite the fact that banks have lifted mortgage rates independently of the Reserve Bank cash rate and have increased mortgage rates to investors. Understandably this has seen a slowing of demand from the investor segment of the market however, demand from owner occupiers is rising and currently filling the space. As previously mentioned demand from the investment segment may actually start to pick-up a little due to the fact investor credit growth is now comfortably below 10% per annum. </p>
<p>With home value growth in Sydney and Melbourne now showing signs of slowing it will be interesting to see over the coming months whether mortgage demand continues to grow. </p>
<p>If it does it may indicate that although demand in Sydney and Melbourne is slowing it is picking up elsewhere.</p>
<p><em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
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Housing finance demand still growing, driven by owner occupier demand: Cameron Kusher

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<div class="stream-item-header">The latest housing finance figures are out and CoreLogic <span>RP Data's senior research analyst Cameron Kusher has tweeted the value of housing commitments by components.</span>
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<span>Cameron </span>quickly highlighted the growth in the investors six month average on his twitter page <a href="https://twitter.com/cmkusher" target="_blank">@cmkusher</a>
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<div class="stream-item-header"><span> </span></div>
<div class="stream-item-header"><span><em>Property Observer</em> will be covering it all in greater detail as the commentary flows.</span></div>
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<div class="stream-item-header"><a href="/images/2016/01/15/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-15%20at%2012.40.12%20pm.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="stream-item-header"><img src="/images/2016/01/15/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-15%20at%2012.40.12%20pm.png" alt="" width="609" height="209"></div>
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Tweet of the day: Cameron Kusher talks housing figures 

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<div>At the headline level it was another spirited month for housing finance nationally, with the seasonally adjusted $32.6 billion in October being the sixth greatest month on record following a lending blitz through 2015.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Although owner-occupier commitments increased again in the month, investor finance continued to slump, dropping by 6.1%.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/12/9/HF1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/12/9/HF1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>The devil of this data series forever lies within the detail, with a number of sources indicating that there has been a level of jiggery-pokery with regards to the classification of loans between owner-occupiers and investors (since there is now a clear price incentive to opt for homebuyer loans).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The second chart below shows that owner-occupier commitments and refinancing have both increased solidly, while APRA's macroprudential measures have ensured that investor finance is now falling away quickly.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The net result was that total housing finance in trend terms remained flat in the month at $33.2 billion.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/12/9/HF2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/12/9/HF2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Whether or not housing markets can push forward in 2016 will depend upon the extent to which the growth in owner-occupier loans can offset declining investor lending. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Certainly we can see that the number of owner-occupier loans is trending up, but equally there is a chance that tightening mortgage rates could slow this sector of the market going forward.</div>
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<div><a href="/images/2015/12/9/HF3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/12/9/HF3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">State versus state</span></strong><br><br><div>Skipping down to the state level we can see that the trend number of owner-occupier commitments is in decline in Western Australia, Tasmania, the Northern Territory, and Queensland, which is home to a significant number of declining regional markets in line with the resources investment collapse.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The trend in the number of owner-occupier commitments in the Australian Capital Territory has been stone dead flat for months.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The increase in the number of mortgages written has been driven purely by the two most populous states, New South Wales and Victoria. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/12/9/HF4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/12/9/HF4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Generally speaking the higher value loans are written in the capital cities, and as such the dollar value of owner-occupier commitments tends to be a better indicator of what is playing out in the capitals.<br><br>In terms of the trend <strong>value</strong> of owner-occupier commitments, both Western Australia and the Northern Territory are again in decline. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Brisbane market is faring relatively well at the present time, helping to nudge the aggregate value of owner-occupier commitments in Queensland steadily up, while Victoria and New South Wales in particular are rising fast.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In fact, trend monthly owner-occupier commitments in New South Wales have ripped up the chart to sit some 43 per cent higher over the year at more than $8 billion (awooga!).</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/12/9/HF5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/12/9/HF5.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>As noted, when it comes to housing finance the devil is always in the detail: more than $3 billion of the New South Wales monthly figure related to refinancing, and over the past year there has also been a slight uptick in finance for renovations.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/12/9/HF6.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/12/9/HF6.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
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<div> </div>
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<div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><br></span></strong>
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<div>Overall, there are many more different trends to cover than can be analysed in one blog post - it was a solid result nationally, and it all rather depends upon which market you are interested in.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>One thing that we can say with certainty is that the investor boom is a cooked goose for this cycle, with investor finance now down by 9.2 per cent year-on-year. In 2016, the homebuyer sector of the market will swim back into focus.</div>
<p> </p>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Investor boom is a cooked goose: Pete Wargent

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>Australian housing finance approvals to owner occupiers posted a smaller than expected 0.5% decline in Oct – industry data had been pointing to a 1-1.5% decline.<span> </span></p>
<p>The detail was on the soft side though. Ex refinance, the number of owner occupier loans declined 1.2%mth, more in line with expectations.</p>
<p>The value of investor loans also declined sharply by -6.1% to be down 13.8% since August and 9.7%yr – the value of loans in this segment are back at June 2014 levels.<span> </span></p>
<p>Given the regulatory restraint being applied to investor lending and the indirect spillover boost this appears to be giving to owner occupier loans, the best gauge of broader market conditions is the combined total value of loans.</p>
<p>This declined 2.7% in Oct (ex refi) to be off 5.6% in two months. Annual growth is still positive but at 4.4%yr is much weaker than the strong double-digit growth rates averaged over the three years to August and the slowest annual pace since August 2012.<span> </span></p>
<p>In effect the housing market slowdown that has been apparent in buyer sentiment and auction markets is now showing through more clearly in the finance aggregates.</p>
<p>The state detail in today’s release is for owner occupier loans only and as such provides little additional insight into relative state performances. The investor loan split on Friday will allow for a clearer assessment.</p>
<p><span><br>Details</span> <br>Owner–occupiers (no.)   -0.5%mth, 6.3%yr  <br><span>– ex-financing (no.)        -1.2%mth, 4.1%yr         </span><span>                       </span></p>
<p>Construction of dwellings (no.)   -0.4%mth, -9.7%yr        <br><span>Purchase of newly built dwellings (no.)   -1.6%mth, 8.9%yr         </span><span>                       </span></p>
<p>Value of loans:             </p>
<p>Owner-occupiers ($bn)  0.4%mth, 21.2%yr  <br><span>Investors ($bn)  -6.1%mth, -9.2%yr        <br></span><span>Total ($bn)  -2%mth, 8.4%yr<br></span><span>Total ex refi ($bn)  -2.7%mth, 4.4%yr  </span></p>
<p><span> </span></p>
<p><span><em><span>Matthew Hassan</span> is senior economist with <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.</em></span></p>
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Owner occupier housing finance approvals down 0.77%: Westpac's Matthew Hassan

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<div>Anyone who implies you that they have any genuine clarity around what is happening with Housing Finance data at the moment is telling you porkies, but since the September data was released today, let's at least see what we can deduce!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>At the margin there are evidently blurred lines between loans that are being classified as investor lending, and those which are determined to be owner-occupier approvals. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The figures reported for new investor lending dropped sharply in September to $12.3 billion on a seasonally adjusted basis, having pulled back from a record peak of above $14 billion in April. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>As sure as night follows day, however, with Australia's major lenders continuing to target high returns on equity (ROE) there will certainly be a strong push to promote owner-occupier lending (ask for a mortgage discount!), and this was once again in evidence with another 3 per cent seasonally adjusted surge in the value of commitments in September to more than $21 billion.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Thus while the monthly value of investor lending is now broadly flat year-on-year, the total value of owner-occupier commitments has leapt more than 23% higher.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/12/HF1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/11/12/HF1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Blurred lines</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Given the blurred lines in relation to loan classifications and refinancing right now, the most straightforward measure of housing market activity is simply to look at the aggregate value of housing finance. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>There was more than a slight suspicion that the rocketing value of owner-occupier commitments in the preceding month was partly a result of the mis-classification of refinancing as new lending.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>While this story remains somewhat unclear for now, the housing finance data showed another very strong month of lending in aggregate at a seasonally adjusted $33.4 billion, taking the trend estimate up to a fresh high.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/12/HF2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/11/12/HF2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Classification issues or no, given that total seasonally adjusted monthly housing finance breached $25 billion for the first time only two years previously in September 2013, a total result of $33.4 billion is a phenomenally high level of activity by any reckoning.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Ultimately, as pointed out by Reserve Bank Governor Stevens recently, borrowers can still source mortgage rates of close to 4 per cent despite the recent tightening on some investor loans, and there is still a good deal of appetite for borrowing where finance can be successfully sought.</div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Unintended consequences</span></strong><br><div> </div>
<div>Macroprudential measures taken to cool housing markets will inevitably have some unintended consequences, one of which may be that lenders demanding a high ROE target potential borrowers with existing equity, which in a curiously reflexive manner might skew lending towards markets which have already outperformed through the cycle.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>That is, cooling measures could accidentally spill fuel onto raging fires, since banks still have a desire to lend even in the face of stricter loan-to-value ratio (LVR) controls. </div>
<div>
<br>Certainly in London we saw the Pommie equivalent Mortgage Market Review (MMR) gum up UK market activity in aggregate, yet by the end of Q2 2014 the London housing market was blowing off in a spectacular starburst of bubbliness, recording its fastest annual rate of price growth in nearly three decades at +26 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Nor has the underlying problem remotely gone away since, with record low mortgage rates helping to thrust the average London house price considerably <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2015/10/average-london-house-price-500000" target="_blank">hig</a><span><a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2015/10/average-london-house-price-500000" target="_blank">her still to <span>£</span>500,000</a>, </span>and the latest <a href="https://www.cityam.com/228290/uk-house-prices-london-property-prices-to-rise-a-third-by-2019-as-demand-continues-to-outweigh-supply" target="_blank">forecasts</a> projecting another kamikaze 31 per cent boom in London house prices by 2019. </div>
<div>
<br>Commentary suggesting that Auckland house prices would be curbed by macroprudential measures also proved to be misguided, at least in the near term, with house prices thereafter bubbling up in rampant fashion towards the million dollar mark, although a reversal may at last now be falling due.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Another of the unintended consequences of macroprudential measures may be a premature end to Australia's residential building boom, with loans for the construction of new homes sinking almost right across the board over the past year, and investor loans for the construction of new residential properties having tanked by nearly a quarter.<br><br>Thirdly, tighter lending measures will almost certainly knock more budding first time buyers out of the market, with market share tumbling from 15.8 per cent to 15.4 per cent in the month, and first time investors or "rent-vestors" doubtless befalling a similar fate due to their lack of existing equity.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Granularity of markets</span></strong></div>
<div>
<br>In this context it will be interesting to see what happens to lending in Sydney and Melbourne over the year ahead, since there exists tentative evidence of similar patterns unfolding.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Of the 23 per cent boom in the value of monthly owner-occupier commitments over the past year, New South Wales has accounted for nearly two thirds of that increase, and Victoria one third.<br><br>The two most populous states - and home to the two capital cities which have overwhelmingly played host to the housing value growth through this cycle to date - have accounted for almost all of the increase in the value of lending.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/12/HF3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/11/12/HF3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Queensland is home to any number of regional markets which have floundered in contrast to their supposed hotspot status of 2012 - Moranbah, Dysart, Emerald, Bowen, Chinchilla, Roma, and Gladstone, to name but a few - so in this context the relatively moderate uptick in lending commitments at the state level can be no surprise.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Indeed the figures conversely augur well for housing market activity across the Greater Brisbane area given that the original data for Queensland in September showed solid total owner-occupier lending of $3.44 billion, taking lending volumes up to a 67 month high on a 12mMA basis.</div>
<br><div>As for the New South Wales figures in September, there has never been a month of home lending like it in Australia, with the original data busting out a +46.2% year-on-year increase in the value of lending to an astonishing $8.55 billion.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/12/HF4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/11/12/HF4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
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Investor lending cools: Pete Wargent

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<p>Lending finance data for August 2015 was released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). </p>
<p>The latest data paired with the previously released housing finance commitments data shows that lending to investors has slowed sharply over recent months following the regulatory changes from APRA and the subsequent changes to lending policies from most mortgage lenders.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/10/13/Chart-13.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/10/13/Chart-13.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><span>The above chart shows the proportion of new lending to investors across each state and territory in August 2015.  Note that when we say new lending we exclude refinances as they are not associated with a new purchase of property.  New South Wales had the greatest proportion of new lending to investors over the month however, we have seen lending to this segment of the market slow across each state and territory.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/10/13/Chart-22.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/10/13/Chart-22.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p>Mortgage lending to investors peaked in May 2015 prior to most Australian ADI’s implementing changes to lending policies relating to investment mortgages.  At that time, the proportion of new lending to investors was much higher in each state and territory than it is currently.  In each state and territory there has been a significant decline in the value of new lending to investors between May and August of this year.  Across each state and territory the magnitude of the fall in investor lending has been recorded at: -10.5% in NSW, -14.0% in Vic, -15.2% in Qld, -17.0% in SA, -10.1% in WA, -10.0% in Tas, -35.6% in NT and -23.5% in ACT.</p>
<p>While new lending to investors has fallen away over recent months, there has been a rise in new lending to owner occupiers across some states and territories while others have seen falls across owner occupier lending too.  Between May 2015 and August 2015 the changes in the value of new lending to owner occupiers have been recorded at: +22.1% in NSW, +16.5% in Vic, +4.2% in Qld, +4.1% in SA, -2.4% in WA, -8.3% in Tas, -8.1% in NT and -10.8% in ACT.</p>
<p>As investor lending is slowing in NSW and Vic, lending to owner occupiers is generally picking-up which should help offset some of the slowdown in investment loans.  Elsewhere there has been no significant increase in owner occupier lending, or owner occupier lending has fallen; given this the data release may point to ongoing weaker housing market conditions outside of the two most populous states.</p>
<p>It’s important to note that this data only includes mortgage lending domestically.  What is not clear is to what extent the weakness in investor demand domestically over recent months is being offset by an uptick in demand from overseas.</p>
<p><em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/cameron-kusher/" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
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Sharp dip in investor housing demand since May: Cameron Kusher

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<p><img src="/images/2015/11/NEW_RAMS_LOGO.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p> </p>
<p>From house hunting to arranging finance, there’s a lot to learn the first time you buy a property. Each step presents challenges and many first-timers fall into the same traps. Here are nine common mistakes and how to avoid them.  </p>
<ul>
<li><span>Over-stretching your budget – Once you’ve crunched the numbers on how much you can afford, stick to that sum. Don’t over-spend, even on a property you love. </span></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><span>Rushing in – If you’ve been looking for a while, it can be tempting to compromise on important details because you’re frustrated with searching. But beware of hasty decisions you may regret later. Review your checklist of features and reassess what you really want. </span></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><span>Getting too picky – At the other end of the spectrum, you should be prepared to make some sacrifices, especially if other features you desire can be added later. </span></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><span>Failing to research – Get to know how much homes in your search area cost but also learn about future changes that may affect values, such as proposed land rezoning or roads that may be built nearby. Factor this information into your decisions. </span></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><span>Not getting inspection reports – Structural reports and pest inspection can reveal otherwise hidden problems. Knowing about these upfront allows you to budget accordingly and maybe negotiate on price.</span></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><span>Forgetting extra costs – In addition to the property price, you may have other costs such as the cost of title searches, solicitor fees, removalists and potentially upfront repairs. Ensure you’ve saved enough to cover those and other charges. </span></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>
<span>Failing to arrange finance – You may think you know how much you can borrow, but does the bank agree? </span><span><em>Speak to your lender about seeking pre-approval for a loan early in your house hunting process. </em></span><span>This provides comfort that you’ll have the money when you need it. </span>
</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><span>Job hopping – Recent or frequent job changes may make lenders reluctant to extend finance. If possible, this is something to keep in mind.</span></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><span>Not reading the fine print – Sale and mortgage contracts are long and complicated but their contents are important. Read them in detail and have a lawyer explain what they mean.</span></li>
</ul>
<p><em>Quick tip: To avoid mistakes, plan ahead, do your research and stay focused on your goal.</em></p>
<p><em> </em></p>
<p><span>TO FIND OUT HOW RAMS CAN HELP EASE YOU THROUGH THE PROCESS, GET IN TOUCH WITH YOUR LOCAL RAMS HOME LOAN EXPERT OR DROP IN FOR YOUR <a href="https://ad.doubleclick.net/ddm/clk/297184357;124281889;y" target="_blank">FREE FIRST HOME BUYERS’ GUIDE</a>.</span></p>
<p>For more great property advice and tips on buying your first home from RAMS subscribe to <a href="https://ad.doubleclick.net/ddm/clk/297184562;124283881;q" target="_blank">The Great Australian Dream property series</a>.</p>
<p><span>For your free </span><em>Property Observer</em><span> eBook from RAMS, <em>12 tips for first-time buyers</em>, </span><span>covering</span><span> </span><span>everything</span><span> you need to know when it comes to purchasing property, click here.</span></p>
<p><em>Disclaimer: Information in this material is general and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and you should consider whether it is appropriate for you. You should also obtain independent professional advice relevant to your financial circumstances.</em></p>
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