Developers and apartment buyers have a narrowing window of opportunity before Brisbane's Olympic infrastructure pipeline begins competing directly with residential construction, pushing up costs, tightening labour supply and making new projects increasingly difficult to deliver.

While Brisbane's apartment market continues to benefit from strong population growth and limited housing supply, industry research suggests the years leading up to 2027 could prove to be the most important period for developers looking to secure builders and buyers hoping to purchase before the next wave of price increases.

A new Colliers report, Brisbane 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games: Creating Solutions, highlights the scale of the challenge. While thousands of new homes are planned across South East Queensland, the Brisbane Olympic Athletes Village alone will deliver more than 10,500 beds during the Games before being converted into around 1,750 to 2,000 apartments. Equivalent to almost two years of typical inner-city apartment supply, the project will also absorb a significant share of the construction workforce and building materials.

The broader construction pipeline paints an even clearer picture.

Construction Skills Queensland's Horizon 2032 report forecasts Queensland's annual construction pipeline will average $69 billion over the coming years before peaking at $75 billion in 2027-28. Demand for construction workers is expected to increase by 17 per cent to almost 150,000 people, with the industry facing an annual shortfall of around 19,000 workers that could blow out to as many as 35,000 during the peak construction period.

The Olympic venues, athletes village and supporting infrastructure will account for billions of dollars worth of work across South East Queensland through to 2032, creating intense competition for labour at a time when Australia's residential construction sector is already under pressure.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150489 project_image_fid=373834]

Colliers Queensland Residential Director Andrew Scriven said the convergence of these projects is creating a clear window of opportunity for both developers and buyers.

"From 2027 onwards, the market will shift dramatically," Scriven said.

"Labour will increasingly be locked into government-led infrastructure and Olympic projects, which means private residential developments will face higher costs and tighter margins. The developers who move now are the ones most likely to get projects off the ground."

Scriven said the same dynamic would also affect buyers, with fewer apartment projects expected to launch once construction capacity tightens.

"If you're looking to change your lifestyle over the next five years, now is your window of opportunity to buy."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150713 project_image_fid=373827]

Developers are already positioning themselves ahead of that window.

Following the success of Monarch at Toowong, Consolidated Properties is preparing to launch two new Brisbane apartment projects in the second half of 2026. They include <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/gloriette-30-bedivere-street-yeerongpilly-qld-4105">Gloriette</a> at Yeerongpilly Green, a 25-storey tower within one of Brisbane's key Olympic precincts, and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/castile-47-skyring-terrace-newstead-qld-4006">Castile</a>, a recently approved 25-storey riverfront development at 47 Skyring Terrace in Newstead.

Hutchinson Builders will deliver both projects, with early works already underway at Yeerongpilly and Newstead expected to commence later this year.

The timing comes as Brisbane's fundamentals continue to strengthen, with strong interstate migration, population growth and vacancy rates remaining below 1.5 per cent.

Colliers Queensland researcher Pragya Sharma said Greater Brisbane is forecast to require around 40,000 new apartments between 2021 and 2031.

"There's a real mismatch emerging between when housing is needed and when it will be feasible to build," Sharma said.

"As a result, the period leading up to 2027 presents a key window of opportunity for developers to secure approvals, funding and construction capacity, while buyers will have greater choice before supply constraints intensify."

Colliers research outlines a critical pre-2027 window to start residential projects before labour squeeze: now is the time to buy

Joel Robinson

Developers, buyers on watch in South East Queensland ahead of construction crunch: Colliers

It's taken less than nine months for developer Sherpa Property Group to sell out all 51 apartments in its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-oasis-palm-beach-7-9-sixth-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Oasis</a> development in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/palm-beach-qld-4221">Palm Beach</a>, over a year before its anticipated completion.

&nbsp;

Located at 7-9 Sixth Avenue, the $67 million development has resonated strongly with both local owner-occupiers and downsizers seeking high-quality apartments within walking distance of the beach, dining precincts and everyday amenities.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357458]

Christie Leet, Founder of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sherpa-property-group">Sherpa Group</a>, said the sell-out reflected both the strength of the Palm Beach market and the success of Sherpa's community-first approach to development.

"The sell-out of Oasis is a fantastic outcome and reinforces the strong demand we're seeing for thoughtfully designed apartments in lifestyle locations," Leet said.

"From the outset, our vision was to create a development that genuinely enhanced the Palm Beach community while providing residents with exceptional homes and wellness-focused amenities.

"We've been incredibly encouraged by the level of local support throughout the campaign, 72.5 per cent of buyers are locals, with a significant proportion of purchasers choosing Oasis as their future home rather than an investment."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357463]

Construction is now progressing following development approval, with trusted builder LPS Group delivering the project and completion anticipated in Q3 2027.

Oasis forms part of Sherpa Group's successful Flourish collection, which has become recognised for its focus on wellness, community and elevated coastal living.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357469]

Residents will have private access to a rooftop amenity space featuring a pool, gym, sauna, steam room, hot and cold plunge pools, spa and barbecue facilities.

"The success of Oasis demonstrates that buyers continue to prioritise quality, location and lifestyle," Leet said.

"We are proud to have delivered a project that has resonated so strongly with the market and look forward to bringing Oasis to life for our future residents."

Sherpa recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-palm-beach-1150-1160-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a>, its third instalment of the Flourish brand in Palm Beach following Flourish Oasis and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/amargo-6-12-sixth-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Amargo</a>.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=151449]

Sherpa sells out Flourish Oasis in booming Palm Beach

Urban Property Group's <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/la-vera-macquarie-park-94-talavera-road-macquarie-park-nsw-2113">La Vera</a> is leading the next phase of Macquarie Park's residential evolution, with the new apartment development set to become the first of several new apartment projects in the precinct to complete.

The 169-apartment building has now topped out ahead of its scheduled completion in the third quarter of 2026, as new residential investment continues to reshape one of Sydney's largest employment hubs into a true mixed-use precinct.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=368645]

Cox Architecture has designed La Vera to capture the best of its unique positioning on Talavera Road, orienting the building towards Lane Cove National Park.&nbsp;The building features a sculpted northern façade with flowing curves inspired by the surrounding landscape, while its city-facing elevation adopts a more structured architectural expression to maximise skyline views.

"The vision for the project was to conceive a building that adopted an organic and curvilinear form to the northern portion that faces the Lane Cove National Park," <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">Cox Architecture</a> Director Felipe Miranda said.

"The residents that reside in the northern portion of the building benefit by having beautifully crafted curved balconies that speak to the natural context and heighten the relationship of their internal living spaces to the external balconies."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=358802]

La Vera offers a diverse mix of one, two, three, and four-bedroom configurations, with prices currently starting from $740,000. Buyers so far have been a mix of Sydney-based investors,&nbsp;metro commuters, owner-occupiers and downsizers from surrounding North Shore suburbs.

Both investors and owner-occupiers have been drawn to La Vera's proximity to Macquarie University, Macquarie University Hospital, Macquarie Centre and the Sydney Metro, infrastructure that supports both strong rental demand and a convenient lifestyle for residents.

The apartments feature full-height glazing, timber flooring throughout living areas, stone kitchen benchtops, SMEG appliances, floor-to-ceiling bathroom tiling and ducted air conditioning.

Residents will have access to a rooftop recreation level featuring a swimming pool, sauna, barbecue facilities and landscaped relaxation areas, complemented by additional communal space at ground level. Many apartments enjoy uninterrupted views across Lane Cove National Park, reinforcing the project's connection to its natural setting.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=364551]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a>, a family-owned developer and builder with nearly four decades of experience, holds a 4.5-star iCIRT rating and was Australia's first developer to introduce 10-Year Latent Defects Insurance (LDI). La Vera is the first apartment development in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/macquarie-park-nsw-2113">Macquarie Park</a> approved to offer the additional insurance protection, alongside a five-year warranty on SMEG appliances.

Urban Property Group CEO Patrick Elias said the additional protection reflects changing buyer expectations in the off the plan market.

"Consumers are a lot more weary and a lot more concerned in buying off the plan than they ever have been. Having LDI is a tool to portray the confidence that we have in our product, and a confidence we want buyers to share," Elias said.

Following completion of the building later this year, buyers will move into their apartments well before Christmas.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134951]

La Vera closes in on completion as Macquarie Park continues residential transformation

Brisbane developer Red &amp; Co's decision to include dual key apartments in its debut Gold Coast apartment development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/como-varsity-lakes-22-lake-street-varsity-lakes-qld-4227">COMO Varsity Lakes</a>, is proving to be one of the project's biggest drawcards, with buyers quickly snapping up the flexible residences.

More than half of the project's 36 dual key apartments have already sold, helping drive COMO beyond the 50 per cent sold mark within the first month of launch.

The strong response highlights growing demand for apartment designs that can adapt to changing lifestyles, with buyers increasingly looking for homes that accommodate multi-generational living, provide rental income opportunities or simply offer greater flexibility over time.

Located on the shores of Lake Orr, COMO will deliver 156 apartments across 16 levels, with the dual-key residences forming a limited release within the broader development.

Each combines a primary two-bedroom apartment with a fully self-contained studio on a single title, connected by a shared foyer and lockable internal door. The design allows owners to house ageing parents, adult children or guests while maintaining privacy, or lease the secondary residence to generate additional income.

Just 17 of the original 36 dual key apartments remain available.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=367096]

The innovative configuration combines two fully self-contained residences on a single title, typically comprising a primary two-bedroom apartment alongside a separate studio residence, connected via a shared foyer and lockable internal door.&nbsp;

The model is proving particularly attractive to owner occupiers navigating changing family dynamics and the realities of the current housing crisis.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=363511]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/npa">NPA</a>&nbsp;CEO Andrew Erwin said dual key living was resonating strongly with modern buyers because it delivered both financial flexibility and practical lifestyle benefits.&nbsp;

“The housing crisis and rising cost of living are fundamentally changing how Australians think about home ownership,” Erwin said.&nbsp;

“Dual key apartments provide a genuine solution for families who want to stay connected while maintaining independence. Parents can help adult children save for a future home, ageing parents can remain nearby without moving into aged care, and owners still retain privacy and flexibility.

“Importantly, buyers are also recognising the financial advantages. It creates the opportunity to generate additional income from part of the home without the holding costs associated with owning a separate investment property.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=363509]

Unlike traditional dual occupancy arrangements, the residences operate under a single title, meaning owners only incur one set of body corporate fees, council rates and holding costs.&nbsp;

The secondary residence can also evolve over time - functioning as guest accommodation, a home office, creative studio or private retreat before later becoming an income-producing asset.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/red-co">Red &amp; Co</a>&nbsp;Director and Co-Founder David Laverty said the strong early sales reflected growing buyer urgency and changing priorities within the market.&nbsp;

“Securing more than half of COMO’s residences within such a short timeframe is an outstanding result and a clear endorsement of both the design and location,” Laverty said.&nbsp;

“Buyers are responding to the combination of location, connectivity and amenity, but ultimately it’s value relative to other East Coast markets that is driving enquiry.”&nbsp;

“We’re also seeing strong interest from owner occupiers looking for homes that can adapt with them over time. Flexibility has become one of the most important considerations for buyers in today’s market.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=363515]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bda-architecture">BDA Architecture</a>, COMO features a mix of one-, two- and three-bedroom residences with 2.7-metre ceilings and larger-format floorplans aimed at owner occupiers, downsizers and lifestyle-focused buyers.&nbsp;

The development will feature an extensive rooftop recreation and wellness offering including a 25-metre lap pool, sundeck, barbecue and dining areas, gym, sauna, plunge baths, landscaped gardens, wellness spaces and rooftop pickleball and paddleball courts.

The remaining dual key apartments range from 137 sqm to 167 sqm and include generous three-bedroom layouts with separate self-contained studio accommodation and dual parking.&nbsp;

Erwin said the dual key concept represented a broader shift in how Australians would live in the future.

“People want homes that can evolve with their lives,” he said.&nbsp;

“A dual key apartment can suit a family today, support an ageing parent tomorrow, and potentially generate income later on. That adaptability is becoming incredibly valuable in the current environment.”

Prices currently range from $2,115,750 to $2,583,000.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135546]

Inter-generational living drives demand for COMO’s dual key apartments as housing pressures reshape buyer priorities 

Builder-developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/ceerose">Ceerose</a> has doubled down on its Leichhardt ambitions, lodging its second State Significant Development Application (SSDA) in the suburb in the last six months.

Their newest proposal seeks to transform a former industrial precinct into a new residential community centred around the adaptive reuse of one of the site's heritage warehouse buildings.

The new project, on a 6,930 sqm block at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/40-76-william-street-leichhardt-nsw-2040">40–76 William Street</a>, will bring more than 200 apartments to a suburb that has seen little to no new supply in recent years. It follows Ceerose's late 2025 SSDA for a mixed-use apartment project on nearby Parramatta Road, signalling the developer's growing investment in Sydney's Inner West.

Ceerose Founder Edward Doueihi told Apartments.com.au the developer’s long-standing presence in Leichhardt and the Inner West had given it a strong understanding of how the area has evolved and where its future opportunities lie.

“Ceerose has had a long-standing presence in Leichhardt and the Inner West, giving us a unique understanding of the area’s evolution and future potential,” Doueihi said.

“Having delivered projects throughout the region, we have witnessed the suburb’s transformation first-hand and understand the opportunities for its continued growth.”

Doueihi said that understanding also informed the planning process, with a comprehensive Stakeholder Engagement Outcomes Report prepared before the application was lodged.

The report identified the key issues and concerns raised by neighbouring residents and other stakeholders, allowing those matters to be considered and incorporated into the design where appropriate.

He said the delivery of additional housing would also play an important role in supporting the revitalisation of Norton Street and the Italian Forum.

“By increasing the local residential population, the development is expected to strengthen demand for local businesses, encourage further investment, and help restore the vibrancy that made the precinct a thriving destination in the early 2000s.”

<img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7258c54c-8167-479e-8361-2d5fca9915b4" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010B%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%202.jpg?VersionId=S9DQfxu_jpcB5LrAEYFUbyMzg5odW6i5" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/woods-bagot">Woods Bagot</a>, the redevelopment would involve the demolition of four existing industrial buildings while retaining and adaptively reusing the site's most significant warehouse. The retained structure would anchor a new residential precinct comprising five interconnected buildings arranged around a large central landscaped courtyard, with heights stepping from five storeys along the surrounding residential streets to 11 storeys at the William Street corner.

According to the Architecture Design Report by Woods Bagot, the proposal "seeks to create a residential village centred around a generous green heart while celebrating the site's industrial heritage through the adaptive reuse of the existing warehouse building."

The development would comprise 203 apartments, with 188 proposed as build-to-sell residences, alongside 15 affordable housing apartments.

Rather than treating the retained warehouse as a standalone heritage object, Woods Bagot has sought to weave the site's industrial history throughout the masterplan. The proposal retains the north and west facades of the landmark corner warehouse, while new buildings reinterpret the site's brick-and-steel industrial language through their material palette and architectural expression.

<img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="9e8c64c2-881b-49e1-8c90-6b6acaaa45b6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010C%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%203.jpg?VersionId=Qm8_8H_Xrg_sc4Mdjc59vlAcKF_5wRTb" />

The design is organised around what Woods Bagot describes as a "green heart", a landscaped communal open space that reinstates the leafy character removed when the site became an industrial storage facility. A new pedestrian laneway running through the site would improve permeability between William, North and Francis streets, linking residents through landscaped public spaces while activating the ground plane.

Residents would have access to communal gardens and shared recreation areas distributed throughout the development. Sustainability has also been prioritised, with the project targeting an average 7.9-star NatHERS rating. Proposed initiatives include rooftop solar generation, rainwater harvesting, passive solar design, naturally ventilated lobbies, extensive cross-ventilation and the reuse of existing building fabric to reduce embodied carbon.

The adaptive reuse strategy became a defining feature of the application after heritage investigations found only one of the site's industrial buildings could feasibly be retained. The Heritage Impact Statement concludes that preserving the key warehouse façades while referencing the site's industrial character throughout the new development provides an appropriate balance between renewal and conservation.

<img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="efffafdb-594f-4e2b-a067-921fd51c05e1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010D%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%204.jpg?VersionId=DPmE4.k16YRt0i27hEZVtJAffarpvUfx" />

"Retention and adaptation of the site buildings has been explored but found not to be feasible except for the tallest building, whose street facades will be retained," the heritage report states.

"The proposed building will interpret the brick and steel character of the subject site, including reuse of some components and construction of a large 'sawtooth' structure in the proposed open space."

<img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3bfef2b5-83f5-40cd-9cab-767092f34266" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010E%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%205.jpg?VersionId=7asb3i_ql4ybbuJOUb5UHBEIy0Q9t.DF" />

The William Street site is located around 300 metres from Leichhardt North Light Rail station and a short walk to Norton Street's retail, dining and hospitality precinct. The surrounding area has increasingly become a focus for urban renewal given its proximity to public transport and the Parramatta Road corridor.

Doueihi founded Ceerose in 1998 and has grown the business to become one of Sydney's more active apartment developers in recent years, with completed projects including The Alex Collective in Alexandria, Abbie's Lane in Annandale, and the award-winning Munro House in Elizabeth Bay. They are currently delivering Belgravia, 17 luxury apartments in Potts Point.

First look: Ceerose doubles down in Leichhardt with adaptive reuse of former warehouse site

Housing Finance

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Earlier this week, housing finance data for August 2016 was released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). 
Over the month there was $31.4 billion worth of housing finance commitments which was -1.0 percent lower over the month and -5.1 percent lower than it was at its peak in April 2015.
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The $31.4 billion worth of commitments in August was split between $19.5 billion worth of commitments by owner occupiers and $11.9 billion in commitments to investors.
The value of lending to owner occupiers has fallen over two consecutive months while lending to investors has risen for the fourth consecutive month.  The value of lending to owner occupiers is now -8.6 percent lower than its peak in December 2015. 
Investor lending remains well below its April 2015 peak, down -18.5 percent however, the recent rebound has seen the value of investor lending increase by 10.0 percent from its recent trough in April 2016.
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The $19.5 billion worth of mortgage borrowing by owner occupiers was comprised of: $1.8 billion for construction of dwellings, $1.0 billion for purchase of new dwellings, $6.4 billion for refinancing of established dwellings and $10.2 billion for purchase of established dwellings. 
The two largest components of owner occupier lending; refinancing and purchase of established dwellings, have both trended lower over recent months. 
The value of refinance lending is -13.4 percent lower than its peak of $7.4 billion in December 2015 and purchase of established dwellings is -11.2 percent lower than its $11.5 billion peak in September 2015. 
With an interest rate cut which wasn’t passed on in full by most lenders in August, there is a decent probability that refinance activity will increase over the coming months.
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For investors there was $11.9 billion in mortgage lending in August 2016, which was split between $0.9 billion in lending for construction and $11.1 billion for established housing. 
The value of lending for construction was at its lowest level since September 2015 and down -49.5 percent from its recent peak of $1.7 billion in March 2016. 
The $11.1 billion in lending for established housing has increased over four consecutive months and is at its highest level since August 2015. 
Housing credit data also highlights the recent up-tick in investor mortgage lending with monthly investor credit data increasing over each of the five months to August 2016.
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Focusing solely on new construction which includes owner occupier construction of dwellings, owner occupier purchase of new dwellings and investor lending for construction, there was $3.7 billion in lending in August 2016. 
The $3.7 billion was the lowest value of lending for new housing since September 2015 with lending for new housing having trended lower since March 2016.  Based on this data, only 14.9 percent of the total value of housing finance commitments in August 2016 were for new housing. 
Of the $3.7 billion, 23.1 percent of lending was to investors.
The trends ae emerging whereby demand from the investment segment is increasing again while owner occupier demand is slowing. Although investment demand is lifting, it is not expected to lift to the substantial levels recorded earlier in the current housing cycle. 
The fading demand from owner occupiers reflects that many have already upgraded or downgraded in the current cycle as much as the fact that particularly in Sydney and Melbourne it is probably getting a little harder to justify a move in the context of significant transactional costs. 
When owners look at the cost of upgrading and the market exit cost (agent commission etc) and entry costs (stamp duty) many are probably now considering a renovation as a better option than moving.
Housing market listings have increased in spring and over recent months auction volumes and clearance rates have also increased.  It will be interesting to see whether this translates into a lift in housing finance commitments over the coming months as the data becomes avaialable.
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.
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ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Investor housing demand rises as owner occupier fades: CoreLogic

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GUEST OBSERVER
The value of housing finance commitments stabilised in August following a sharp fall the previous month. Recent strength in investor finance appears to be waning. 
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Housing finance commitments for the construction of new houses weakened sharply, suggesting building approvals may be nearing a peak. Overall though, the level of activity in the housing market is strong and there is a significant backlog of work.
The value of housing finance commitments stabilised in August, rising by 0.2 percent m/m in August following a 2.7 percent m/m fall the previous month.
In annual terms, the value of housing finance continues to fall, with commitments down 6.3 percent y/y in August. The number of housing finance commitments fell by 3 percent m/m.
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Owner-occupied finance excluding refinancing rose by 0.2 percent m/m, with a larger 0.6 percent m/m increase for upgraders. Finance for first home buyers fell by 1.2 percent m/m.
Interestingly, investor finance growth moderated for the second consecutive month, rising by 0.1 percent m/m in August compared with 0.5% m/m in July.
In trend terms, housing finance broadly appears to be rolling over (see Figure 1). This is surprising given that other data flow on the housing market has been somewhat stronger. House prices have continued to rise, auction clearance rates remain elevated, and building approvals are around record levels.
Tighter surveyed lending conditions for developers are continuing to weigh on finance for construction of new housing, which fell sharply in August, suggesting building approvals may be close to peaking (see Figure 2).
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That said, there is a record backlog of work which will continue to support growth in construction activity over the coming year. 
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Jo Masters is senior economist, ANZ and can be contacted <a href="https://www.anz.com/personal/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Value of housing finance commitments stabilised in August: ANZ's Jo Masters

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The thinking behind yesterday's RBA cash rate decision is illustrated by today's RBA chart pack.
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5 insights from the RBA on the Australian housing market: RBA chart pack

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<div class="section">Australian housing finance approvals were materially weaker than expected in July with much of the detail also on the weak side, investor loans about the only exception.</div>
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<div class="section">The total number of owner occupier loans fell 4.2 percent, well below the consensus forecast for a 1.5 percent decline.</div>
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Ex refinance the picture was even weaker with a 6.1 percent fall, the largest monthly decline since May last year.
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Approvals can be choppy month to month but moves tend to be in the ±3 percent range. 
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Our estimates (using ABS seasonal factors) suggest seasonally adjusted owner occupier approvals ex refi were down 3-4 percent in NSW, Vic and Qld with, somewhat surprisingly, WA the only state to record a rise (+2.7 percent/mth). 
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Note that the sum of these estimates across the big five states is firmer than the published national number (down about 2 percent rather than 6 percent). 
The value of housing finance approvals to investors rose 0.5 percent, building on a 3.3 percent gain in June to be up 9.2 percent since April. 
The sharp slowdown associated with the tightening in lending criteria and increases in borrowing rates for investor loans late last year has now clearly run its course. 
With loan 'supply' now, arguably, less constrained (particularly given that investor credit growth is tracking at 4.5 percent/yr, well below the regulator's 10 percent ceiling) and some of the uncertainty around potential tax changes easing activity looks to be firming again.
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For the total value of housing finance approvals, the rise in investor loans partially offset the weakness in owner occupiers with the total value ex refi down a milder 2.2 percent/mth. The total value of approvals ex refi is down on a year ago, mainly reflecting last year's pull back in investor loans. 
The July fall in owner occupier approvals is a little puzzling given the May interest rate cut and a range of other indicators suggesting both buyer sentiment and market conditions have firmed somewhat in recent months. 
It may reflect the tail end of earlier weakness (finance approvals tend to respond to rate moves and sentiment shifts with a 2-3mth lag). There may also be some statistical 'noise' in the monthly data.
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Overall, given the better reads coming from other market indicators and the divergence between investor and owner occupier loans we would tend to take the July finance approvals figure with a grain of salt and look to coming months to confirm whether a new weakening is coming through. 
Matthew Hassan is senior economist with <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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July fall in owner occupier approvals is a little puzzling: Westpac's Matthew Hassan

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GUEST OBSERVER
Australian housing finance were materially weaker than expected in July with much of the detail also on the weak side, investor loans about the only exception.
The total number of owner occupier loans fell 4.2 percent, well below the consensus forecast for a 1.5 percent decline. 
Ex refinance the picture was even weaker with a 6.1 percent fall, the largest monthly decline since May last year.
Approvals can be choppy month to month but moves tend to be in the ±3 percent range.
Our estimates (using ABS seasonal factors) suggest seasonally adjusted owner occupier approvals ex refi were down 3-4% in NSW, Vic and Qld with, somewhat surprisingly, WA the only state to record a rise (+2.7%mth).
Note that the sum of these estimates across the big five states is firmer than the published national number (down about 2% rather than 6%).
Details 
Owner–occupiers (no.)              –4.2%mth, 1.8%yr
– ex-financing (no.)                  –6.1%mth, –2.7%yr      
Construction of dwellings (no.)  –4.9%mth, –3.9%yr
Purchase of newly built dwellings (no.)  –3.3%mth, 8.4%yr        
Value of loans:
Owner-occupiers ($bn)        –3.1%mth, 2.3%yr
Investors ($bn)                    0.5%mth, –9.3%yr
Total ($bn)                         –1.8%mth, –2.4%yr
Total ex refi ($bn)                –2.2%mth, –5.4%yr
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July Australian housing finance figures weaker than expected: Westpac's Matthew Hassan

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GUEST OBSERVER
The June housing finance report was a mixed bag with the headline number of owner occupier approvals undershooting expectations slightly but most of the detail more positive.
The number of approvals owner occupiers rose 1.2 percent in June, below expectations of a 2.3 percent gain. However ex refi, ‘new’ approvals were more in line with a 2.1 percent gain.
The value of housing finance approvals to investors was up 3.2 percent mth – although there was not a consensus forecast on this component it was probably a touch better than expected.
Both segments appear to have responded positively to May’s interest rate cut although broader market measures such as auction clearance rates point to a firming in demand rather than a sharp pick up.
The detail also showed solid gains 2 percent+ for construction-related finance approvals. Details  Owner–occupiers (no.)   1.2%mth, 6.7%yr           – ex-financing (no.)        2.1%mth, 3.8%yr               
Construction of dwellings (no.)               2.1%mth, 1.1%yr      Purchase of newly built dwellings (no.)   2.7%mth, 19.6%yr                       
Value of loans:             
Owner-occupiers ($bn)   1.8%mth, 9.4%yr    Investors ($bn)              3.2%mth, –13.1%yr       Total ($bn)                    2.3%mth, 0%yr  Total ex refi ($bn)          2.8%mth, -3.4%yr      
Matthew Hassan is senior economist with <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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June Australia housing finance approvals: Westpac's Matthew Hassan

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New South Wales has the best performing economy nationwide according to the State of States July 2016 report from CommSec Research.
The report, which compares indicators against decade averages, found both NSW and Victoria, which came in second, are keeping a lead of other states and territories.
The ACT economy improved over the quarter and held onto third spot - it is top ranked on housing finance and third ranked on economic growth, unemployment and population growth. 
The report said while the Northern Territory economy has held onto fourth place, there is now little separating South Australia in fifth (previously seventh) from the ‘top end’ economy.
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"The Queensland economy has moved down one rung from fifth to sixth," it said.
"NSW has retained its top rankings on population growth, equipment investment, retail trade, and dwelling starts and added economic growth. But NSW drifted to second spot on unemployment. NSW improved to third ranked on construction work and drifted to third on housing finance (previously second).
"Victoria is ranked second on a number of indicators (economic growth, population growth, retail trade, business investment, construction work and housing finance). Victoria has moved from second ranked to fourth ranked on unemployment.
"The Northern Territory is losing momentum, and as key resource projects are completed, activity levels will slow further unless a lift in investment takes place. Slow population growth, weak demand for housing loans and a sharp fall in equipment investment will constrain economic momentum.
"The South Australian job market has improved in the past year and in particular the past quarter. If the positive trend continues, then there is scope for an improvement in retail spending.
"Queensland has slipped down the rankings to just above Western Australia, and Tasmania. Encouragingly, the lower Australian dollar will support agricultural exports and more importantly the tourism sector in coming months.
"Western Australia continues to slip in the performance rankings, having moved from top spot (July 2014) to seventh in two years. Slower population growth and higher unemployment will constrain activity in the housing market."
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The report also noted in ACT, Victoria, NSW, South Australia and Queensland trend housing finance commitments are above decade averages. 
 
 
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NSW still on top, WA falls to seventh: CommSec's State of the States July 2016

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GUEST OBSERVER
Housing finance approvals continue to point to subdued conditions in April with a further softening in investor activity.
The headline figure – the number of owner occupier finance approvals – posted a 1.7 percent rise, more or less in line with expectations (market +2.5 percent, Westpac 2 percent).
The detail was a touch softer including additional data on the value of investor loans.
Ex refinance, the number of new owner occupier loans was up just 1.1 percent, only reversing part of March’s 1.5 percent decline. Overall, the monthly moves are slow and suggest owner occupier demand is drifting around rather than strengthening or weakening.
Within the owner occupier segment, the number of loans of housing-related loans posted a solid rise but are still down significantly on a year ago (+4 percent mth, –5.9 percent yr on a combined basis).
By state, gains were a bit firmer in Vic and Qld but softer in the other main states.
The value of investor loans fell 5 percent to be down over 20 percent yr.
Notably, the weakness in the investor segment outweighed the gain in owner-occupiers with the total value of loans ex refi down 3.7 percent mth, 9.2 percent yr.
Overall, the numbers suggest conditions remained soft in April ahead of the RBA’s May rate cut.
The Bank’s moves should draw more buyers into the market although that will take a few months to become apparent in finance approvals and may continue to be offset by weak investor activity. Details  Owner–occupiers (no.)   1.7%mth, 4.6%yr          
– ex-financing (no.)        1.1%mth, 0.7%yr          
Construction of dwellings (no.)               4.4%mth, –5.6%yr        
Purchase of newly built dwellings (no.)   3.3%mth, –6.7%yr        
Value of loans:             
Owner-occupiers ($bn)   0.1%mth, 7.8%yr          
Investors ($bn)              –5%mth, –20.8%yr       
Total ($bn)                    –1.8%mth, –4.4%yr      
Total ex refi ($bn)          –3.7%mth, –9.2%yr                      
 
Matthew Hassan is senior economist with <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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Number of owner occupier housing finance approvals up in April: Westpac's Matthew Hassan

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The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) has released its quarterly Authorised Deposit-taking Institution (ADI) property exposures data for the March 2016 quarter. 
This data is really valuable as it provides additional insight into the mortgage market, including data which is not available from the monthly housing finance statistics.
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The data initially focuses on outstanding total values and shows that at the end of the March 2016 quarter there was $906.7 billion outstanding to owner occupiers and $501.3 billion to investors.  While total lending continued to rise, up 8.7% year-on-year, it is interesting to see how the tilt away from investment lending has progressed.
Over the past 12 months, total investor lending has increased by just 0.1% with the total value of investor mortgage lending outstanding down -3.2% from its June 2015 quarter peak.  The data also indicates that investor credit growth now sits significantly below the APRA imposed 10% pa speed limit.  This could lead to a rebound in lending to investors over the coming quarters.  Total lending to owner occupiers has continued to increase and is up 14.0% year-on-year.  In terms of the total value of outstanding mortgages, owner occupiers account for 64.4% compared to 35.6% to investors.  The proportion of outstanding mortgages to investors has fallen sharply from its recent peak of 39.0% in June 2015.
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Although the total value of outstanding mortgages is rising you can see that growth is generally slowing.  Mortgages with offset facilities account for a record-high 43.0% of all outstanding mortgages and the value of these mortgages has increased 20.4% year-on-year.  Interest-only mortgages account for 39.3% of total outstanding mortgages, with the value having increased by 9.6% year-on-year.  Reverse mortgages account for just 0.5% of all outstanding mortgages with the value of outstanding mortgages up 1.4% year-on-year.  Only 2.4% of the value of outstanding mortgages are for low-documentation loans and 0.1% are other non-standard loans.  Year-on-year the value of outstanding low-documentation mortgages is -16.5% lower and other non-standard mortgages are -4.0% lower.  In fact the total value of outstanding low-documentation and other non-standard mortgages is at a record low.
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The average outstanding mortgage balance was recorded at $251,900 in March 2016, having increased by 4.8% year-on-year.  At the end of March 2016, the average outstanding balances across loan types were: $307,200 for loans with an offset, $334,400 for interest-only, $96,500 for reverse mortgages, $192,200 for low-documentation and $193,400 for other non-standard loans.  All loan types except for low-documentation (-1.1%) and other non-standard (-7.0%) have seen the average balance increase over the past year: offset (6.3%), interest-only (5.0%), reverse mortgages (2.4%).
To date, all data analysed has focused on total balances outstanding, the following data will focus specifically on quarterly new lending.
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Over the March 2016 quarter there was $81.7 billion in new mortgage lending, which was the lowest quarterly value of new lending since the March 2014 quarter.  This figure comprises of $56.0 billion in lending to owner occupiers and $25.7 billion in lending to investors.  The value of new lending to owner occupiers has increased by 16.1% year-on-year while the value of investor lending is -25.5% lower year-on-year.  The value of new lending to investors is the lowest since the March 2013 quarter and is -37.7% lower from its peak over the June 2015 quarter.  The data indicates that there has been a significant pull-back in new lending to investors over recent quarters.
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With the value of new mortgage lending falling, the value of most loan types is now also falling.  Over the March 2016 quarter, 0.3% of new lending was for low documentation loans, 34.9% was for interest-only, 0.1% was for other non-standard loans, 46.5% was originated through third part channels and 3.8% of loans were approved outside of serviceability.  The value of new lending for low documentation mortgages was at a record low.  The value of new interest-only lending was the lowest since the March 2013 quarter.  The value of other non-standard lending was the lowest since the same quarter last year as was loans approved outside of serviceability.  The value of new mortgage lending by third parties was the lowest since the September 2014 quarter.
Higher loan to value ratio (LVR) lending is reducing meaning that borrowers are typically using larger deposits.  In fact, the value of new lending for LVRS above 90% in the March 2016 was the lowest since the March 2011 quarter and has fallen by -22.8% over the past year.  Lending for LVRs between 80% and 90% has increased by 2.7% year-on-year however, it has fallen over each of the past four quarters.  In fact, lending for LVRs above 80% represented 22.4% of all new lending in March 2016 which was its lowest proportion on record and well down from the peak in March 2009 where it accounted for 37.6% of all new lending.
The value of lending to investors is falling sharply as assessment criteria is tightened and investors are typically now charged a higher interest rate than owner occupiers.  Interest-only lending which APRA and the Reserve bank have previously sounded warnings about is also starting to fall and is now at its lowest level since March 2013.  Higher LVR lending which is associated with smaller deposits are also trending lower which indicates less risky lending.  The added benefit surrounding lower LVRs is that if a borrower has a deposit of more than 20% of the value of the property they can typically avoid lenders mortgage insurance (LMI).  New lending to loans outside of serviceability, low documentation loans and other non-standard loans has also been falling over recent quarters which is reflective of less risky lending practices being undertaken.  These emerging trends can only be positives for the stability and security of the Australian mortgage lending market.
Based on the data presented, it is apparent that tighter lending policies by lenders is having a noticeable impact on the mortgage market.
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.
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Tighter lending policies see a reduction in investor and riskier lending types: Cameron Kusher

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GUEST OBSERVER
The March housing finance approvals came in largely in line with expectations, with essentially steady owner occupier activity and a slight firming in the value of investor loans.
The number of owner occupier finance approvals dipped 0.9 percent mth in line with Westpac’s –1 percent call. Ex refi, the number of ‘new loans’ was a bit softer, down 1.6 percent mth.
Note that the abrupt slowdown in Australia’s housing markets in the second half of last year was mainly driven by a rapid cooling in investor activity following a tightening in credit conditions and rates for investor loans in response to a tightening in prudential guidelines and increased capital targets from regulators. Owner occupier activity was a lot steadier through this period with the number of loans still growth in annual terms, up 3.8 percent yr.
Accordingly there continues to be more focus on the investor lending numbers in the finance approvals data. Although these are not included in the headline figure on the number of approvals, the value of investor loans is recorded and included in estimates of the 'total value' of housing loans. For March the value of investor loans was up 1.5 percent mth after a 3.1 percent gain in February.
Though still down 13 percent yr, investor activity has clearly firmed a touch in early 2016. This may account for the firmer tone in other housing market indicators such as auction clearance rates and price growth. Buyer sentiment lifted following the RBA's rate cut in May but remains at a subdued level compared to previous years. Notably, the pick up in price growth in April appears to have accelerated in May with the month to date figures from CoreLogic RP Data showing surprisingly strong gains.
Elsewhere in the finance approvals detail, construction-related finance approvals were again weak, down 5.9 percent mth and 11.7 percent over the last 3mths. Within this segment, finance approvals for the purchase of newly built dwellings, which covers owner occupier purchases of 'off the plan' units, are down 11.1 percent mth and 23 percent since Dec. Although this could reflect shifts in demand it may also be an indication that buyers of 'off the plan' units more broadly are starting to encounter financing difficulties.
Approvals were a mixed bag by state. Owner occupier approvals ex refi were down across the board but showed slightly bigger falls in NSW (–2.2 percent), Vic (–2.7 percent) and Qld (–2.5 percent). Note that only owner occupier state figures are available at this stage with investor data due out May 13.
Matthew Hassan is senior economist with <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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