<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/consolidated-properties">Consolidated Properties Group</a> (CPG) is approaching the launch of its latest Brisbane riverfront development, Castile, on the dress circle Skyring Terrace in Newstead.</p>

<p>VIP buyers are now being engaged, with a full public sales launch coming later this year.</p>

<p>Positioned as the final opportunity to secure a new absolute riverfront residence on the East bank of Newstead, Teneriffe or New Farm, Castile at 47 Skyring Terrace has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/woods-bagot">Woods Bagot</a> as a timeless addition to the Brisbane skyline.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150489 project_image_fid=371113]</p>

<p>The name Castile draws on themes of permanence, sophistication and legacy, reflecting a broader vision centred on enduring architecture and timelessness in the rarest of riverfront positions.&nbsp;</p>

<p>CPG Chairman and CEO Don O’Rorke said the project had been envisioned as a future Brisbane icon.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“With 47 metres of direct river frontage and never to be built out views, 47 Skyring Terrace is the definitive address on the Brisbane River,” O’Rorke said.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150489 project_image_fid=371114]</p>

<p>“Rather than following trend-based apartment design, Castile draws inspiration from Brisbane’s great heritage buildings, reinterpreting classical architecture into a contemporary riverfront landmark designed to stand proudly for the next 100 years,” he said.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The approved development will comprise 227 apartments across a 25-storey tower alongside a boutique six-storey riverfront building of just 12 residences.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Construction is scheduled to commence in September 2026.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150489]</p>


Joel Robinson

CPG unveils Castile Newstead ahead of upcoming sales launch

<p>Australia’s online shopping habits have shifted dramatically over the last decade. As eCommerce volumes surged, so too did the frustrations that came with traditional parcel delivery: missed deliveries, long Post Office queues, parcel theft and the challenge of being home during business hours.</p>

<p>Australia Post’s Parcel Lockers emerged as one of the more practical responses to that changing consumer behaviour.</p>

<p>What started as a relatively niche delivery option has evolved into a nationwide network of more than 1,400 self-service Parcel Lockers positioned at train stations, shopping centres, supermarkets and Post Offices across the country. The system allows Australians to send, collect and return parcels 24 hours a day, fundamentally changing how many people interact with deliveries.</p>

<p>The appeal is relatively straightforward: flexibility.</p>

<p>Instead of waiting at home for a delivery driver or rushing to a Post Office before closing time, users can direct eligible parcels to a Parcel Locker location of their choice. Once the parcel arrives, Australia Post sends a notification with a collection code or QR access through the AusPost app, allowing customers to retrieve their package at any time within the collection window.</p>

<p>For apartment residents in particular, the system has become increasingly valuable.</p>

<p>Higher-density living has created logistical challenges around deliveries, especially in buildings without concierge services or secure parcel rooms. Missed deliveries are common, while parcel theft has become an increasing concern as online shopping volumes continue to rise.</p>

<p>Australia Post itself has repeatedly highlighted the growing issue of “porch pirates” during peak shopping periods, encouraging customers to use Parcel Lockers as a safer alternative to unattended home deliveries.</p>

<p>That security aspect is one of the key reasons the Australia Post Parcel Locker network has grown so rapidly.</p>

<p>Parcel Lockers are positioned as secure, monitored collection points that reduce the risk of theft while also improving delivery efficiency for Australia Post. Instead of multiple redelivery attempts, parcels can be consolidated into a single secure destination.</p>

<p>The Parcel Lockers themselves are free to use through a MyPost account and support a range of parcel sizes up to 16 kilograms and dimensions of approximately 35 x 44 x 61 centimetres.</p>

<p>Beyond receiving parcels, the system has increasingly become integrated into the broader eCommerce ecosystem.</p>

<p>Customers can now use Parcel Lockers to return online purchases, while retailers have embraced the model as a way to improve delivery success rates and reduce friction in the shopping process. Australia Post has actively expanded partnerships with major retailers and promoted Parcel Lockers as part of a broader out-of-home strategy.</p>

<p>The timing of that expansion aligns with broader changes in Australian shopping behaviour.</p>

<p>The acceleration of online retail during and after the pandemic placed enormous pressure on delivery infrastructure. Parcel volumes reached record highs, particularly during Black Friday and Christmas periods, with Australia Post delivering more than 100 million parcels during peak festive seasons.</p>

<p>That growth forced logistics providers to rethink the “last mile” of delivery, widely regarded as the most expensive and operationally difficult stage of the process.</p>

<p>Parcel Locker systems have increasingly been viewed as part of the long-term solution.</p>

<p>The concept itself is not unique to Australia. Parcel Locker networks have become common globally, particularly across Europe and Asia, where dense urban environments and apartment living create similar logistical challenges. But Australia’s geography and suburban sprawl made adoption slower initially.</p>

<p>Now, however, the convenience factor is driving mainstream usage.</p>

<p>For commuters, Parcel Lockers near train stations allow parcels to be collected on the way home from work. For apartment dwellers, they remove the uncertainty around access and missed deliveries.</p>

<p>The rise of the AusPost app has also streamlined the experience, centralising notifications, tracking and Parcel Locker access into a single platform. Australia Post has increasingly pushed customers toward app-based delivery management, partly as a way to combat phishing scams and fake delivery notifications, which have become more sophisticated in recent years.</p>

<p>The Parcel Locker model is also beginning to influence property development itself.</p>

<p>Parcel management has become a growing consideration in apartment building design, particularly as online shopping becomes embedded in everyday life. Many new residential developments are now incorporating dedicated parcel rooms or Parcel Locker systems into foyers and communal spaces.</p>

<p>For developers, parcel management is increasingly viewed as part of the broader resident amenity offering, alongside gyms, wellness spaces and communal work areas.</p>

<p>That reflects a wider evolution in how residential buildings are designed.</p>

<p>Apartment buyers are placing greater emphasis on convenience, security and operational functionality, particularly in higher-density urban environments. Parcel delivery, once considered a minor operational detail, has become an increasingly important part of that equation.</p>

<p>Australia Post’s Parcel Locker network sits at the centre of that behavioural shift.</p>

<p>What began as a simple alternative delivery option has evolved into a key piece of infrastructure supporting Australia’s growing eCommerce economy and changing urban lifestyles.</p>

<p>And as online shopping continues to expand, the role of Parcel Lockers is likely to become even more embedded in how Australians live, shop and receive goods.</p>


How Australia Post Parcel Lockers changed parcel delivery convenience in Australia

<p>Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.</p>

<p>Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;</p>

<p>David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]</p>

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

<p>Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;</p>

<p>At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.</p>

<p>Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.</p>

<p>Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]</p>

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

<p>Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.</p>

<p>David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.</p>

<p>“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;</p>

<p>Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]</p>

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

<p>While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;</p>

<p>However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.</p>

<p>Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;</p>


Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.</p>

<p>The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.</p>

<p>Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.</p>

<p>“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.</p>

<p>“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”</p>

<p><img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" /></p>

<p>Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.</p>

<p>The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.</p>

<p>“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.</p>

<p>“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”</p>

<p><img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" /></p>

<p>Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.</p>

<p>“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.</p>

<p>The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.</p>

<p>“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”</p>

<p>The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.</p>

<p>The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.</p>


Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

<p>Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.</p>

<p>Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.</p>

<p>The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.</p>

<p>“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.</p>

<p>“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.</p>

<p>“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”</p>

<p>The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.</p>

<p>“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”</p>

<p>From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.</p>

<p>“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”</p>

<p>The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.</p>

<p>“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.</p>

<p>Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.</p>

<p>“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.</p>

<p>“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”</p>

<p>The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.</p>

<p>“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.</p>

<p>Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>


Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

Housing Finance

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<p>Earlier this week, housing finance data for August 2016 was released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). </p>
<p>Over the month there was $31.4 billion worth of housing finance commitments which was -1.0 percent lower over the month and -5.1 percent lower than it was at its peak in April 2015.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/10/13/chart-1-580x211.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<h1 class="title"> <img src="/images/2016/10/13/chart-1-580x211.jpg" alt="">
</h1>
<div class="entry">
<p>The $31.4 billion worth of commitments in August was split between $19.5 billion worth of commitments by owner occupiers and $11.9 billion in commitments to investors.</p>
<p>The value of lending to owner occupiers has fallen over two consecutive months while lending to investors has risen for the fourth consecutive month.  The value of lending to owner occupiers is now -8.6 percent lower than its peak in December 2015. </p>
<p>Investor lending remains well below its April 2015 peak, down -18.5 percent however, the recent rebound has seen the value of investor lending increase by 10.0 percent from its recent trough in April 2016.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/10/13/chart-2-580x210.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/10/13/chart-2-580x210.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The $19.5 billion worth of mortgage borrowing by owner occupiers was comprised of: $1.8 billion for construction of dwellings, $1.0 billion for purchase of new dwellings, $6.4 billion for refinancing of established dwellings and $10.2 billion for purchase of established dwellings. </p>
<p>The two largest components of owner occupier lending; refinancing and purchase of established dwellings, have both trended lower over recent months. </p>
<p>The value of refinance lending is -13.4 percent lower than its peak of $7.4 billion in December 2015 and purchase of established dwellings is -11.2 percent lower than its $11.5 billion peak in September 2015. </p>
<p>With an interest rate cut which wasn’t passed on in full by most lenders in August, there is a decent probability that refinance activity will increase over the coming months.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/10/13/chart-3-580x211.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/10/13/chart-3-580x211.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>For investors there was $11.9 billion in mortgage lending in August 2016, which was split between $0.9 billion in lending for construction and $11.1 billion for established housing. </p>
<p>The value of lending for construction was at its lowest level since September 2015 and down -49.5 percent from its recent peak of $1.7 billion in March 2016. </p>
<p>The $11.1 billion in lending for established housing has increased over four consecutive months and is at its highest level since August 2015. </p>
<p>Housing credit data also highlights the recent up-tick in investor mortgage lending with monthly investor credit data increasing over each of the five months to August 2016.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/10/13/chart-4-580x214.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/10/13/chart-4-580x214.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Focusing solely on new construction which includes owner occupier construction of dwellings, owner occupier purchase of new dwellings and investor lending for construction, there was $3.7 billion in lending in August 2016. </p>
<p>The $3.7 billion was the lowest value of lending for new housing since September 2015 with lending for new housing having trended lower since March 2016.  Based on this data, only 14.9 percent of the total value of housing finance commitments in August 2016 were for new housing. </p>
<p>Of the $3.7 billion, 23.1 percent of lending was to investors.</p>
<p>The trends ae emerging whereby demand from the investment segment is increasing again while owner occupier demand is slowing. Although investment demand is lifting, it is not expected to lift to the substantial levels recorded earlier in the current housing cycle. </p>
<p>The fading demand from owner occupiers reflects that many have already upgraded or downgraded in the current cycle as much as the fact that particularly in Sydney and Melbourne it is probably getting a little harder to justify a move in the context of significant transactional costs. </p>
<p>When owners look at the cost of upgrading and the market exit cost (agent commission etc) and entry costs (stamp duty) many are probably now considering a renovation as a better option than moving.</p>
<p>Housing market listings have increased in spring and over recent months auction volumes and clearance rates have also increased.  It will be interesting to see whether this translates into a lift in housing finance commitments over the coming months as the data becomes avaialable.</p>
<p><em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.</em></p>
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ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Investor housing demand rises as owner occupier fades: CoreLogic

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<div>GUEST OBSERVER</div>
<div> </div>
<div>I recently wrote here how it looked as though new home finance had shaped into quite a neat double top formation.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In November, finance for new owner-occupier purchases increased a bit, but overall the trendline does suggest that a second peak is forming. </div>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/23/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/01/23/A1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<p><br><span>The slight rebound ties in with the rebound in new home sales in the month, previously noted </span><a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2017/01/new-home-sales-rebound" target="_blank">here</a><span>.</span><br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Mainly investors buying new</span></strong><br><br><span>It's often said that investors mainly invest in established housing, with charts produced to prove it.</span><br><br></p>
<div>Of course, with the total dwelling stock only increasing by less than 2 per cent over the year to September 2016 to 9.76 million, it stands to reason that most investors will buy established - there just aren't that many new properties in any given year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>I have been more interested to know what percentage of the new housing stock was purchased by owner-occupiers, but nobody I have asked seems to know (or even care about) the answer.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The housing finance figures show that owner-occupiers financed the construction of only 68,200 homes and the purchase of just 31,490 dwellings. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>What the housing finance figures don't capture is that some owner-occupier buyers of new homes are cash buyers.<br><br>But nevertheless, it's clear that largely the buyers of new dwellings are investors, albeit many of them from overseas.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><em><span>PETE WARGENT </span>is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>. </em></div>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

New housing finance is topping out: Pete Wargent

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released lending finance data earlier today and when it is paired with the earlier housing finance data release, the figures provide insight into the value of mortgage lending over the month in each state and territory. </p>
<p>Over recent months investor demand for mortgages has been trending higher and this is being largely driven by resurgent investor demand in New South Wales and Victoria. </p>
<p>Of course the capital cities of these two states have consistently recorded the strongest value growth of all capital cities over the past five years and also have the lowest rental returns.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/25/chart-1-3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/01/25/chart-1-3.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The data analysed is based on the value of mortgage finance commitments. </p>
<p>Given this it is important to consider that more expensive markets (such as NSW) will tend to result in borrowers taking out larger mortgages whereas borrowers in more affordable markets will generally take out smaller mortgages.  More than half of all the mortgage lending to investors in November 2016 was lent in New South Wales and with a further 24.5 percent in Victoria, three quarters of all mortgage lending to investors occurred in the two most populous states.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/25/chart-2-3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/01/25/chart-2-3.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Looking only at new lending (that is excluding refinances) investors accounted for 56.7% of the value of lending in New South Wales in November 2016.  Looking over the past four years, the value of new lending to investors in New South Wales has been greater than new owner occupier lending for 42 of the past 48 months. </p>
<p>Victoria was previously seeing slightly more than 50% of new lending to investors but was recorded at 45.0% in November 2016.  Across the remaining states and territories, the proportion of total new lending to investors in November 2016 was recorded at: 39.7% in Queensland, 37.1% in South Australia, 31.0% in Western Australia, 26.1% in Tasmania, 40.3% in the Northern Territory and 38.7% in the Australian Capital Territory.</p>
<p>It’s clear that demand for mortgages from the investor segment is picking up, particularly in New South Wales and Victoria, which are proxies for Sydney and Melbourne respectively.  With a low cost of borrowing and many owner occupiers having seen substantial increases in housing equity in Sydney and Melbourne over the past 4.5 years it is easy to understand why investor demand is rising. </p>
<p>On the other side of things, you have a value growth phase that has now run for 4.5 years, largely focussed on two major cities and rental returns at historic low levels in these cities.  Investors should be considering the potential risks, especially as housing supply is responding and that the value growth phase is now quite mature.  While many have seen a substantial increase in the value of properties and may continue to do so, at some point growth will slow. </p>
<p>With record low yields, slow rental growth and additional housing supply entering the market over the coming years, if investors need to start relying on rental returns rather than increase in the asset value, boosting those returns is likely to prove difficult.</p>
<p><em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.</em></p>
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New lending to investors in NSW has accounted for more than half of all new lending for 42 of the past 48 months: Cameron Kusher

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>Total housing finance was lower as expected back in August at $30.67 billion in seasonally adjusted terms, well down from the peak of above $34 billion a year earlier.</p>
<p>The Reserve Bank of Australia posted some useful insights on household finances, financial stress (or rather the lack of it), and the impact of tighter lending standards on loan sizes.</p>
<p>The RBA doesn't always help itself when citing very old data, but made some handy insights on borrowing capacity, specifically noting how most loans are made significantly below borrowing capacity.</p>
<p>In the surveyed figures only about 13 per cent borrowed 90 per cent or more of the maximum amount potentially available, while some two-thirds borrowed only 70 per cent or less of their capacity (thereby implying that tighter lending standards only impact some borrowers).</p>
<p>This was to some extent borne out by the housing finance data, with average loan sizes having continued to rise for owner-occupiers to be significantly higher than a year earlier, including in all three of the most populous states.</p>
<p>The borrowers most likely to be materially impacted by tighter lending standards include portfolio investors, and this is also reflected in the totals for investment loans.</p>
<p>The monthly trend result for investment loans has fallen from $14 billion at the 2015 peak to $10 billion, suggesting that the best performing properties are likely to be those actively sought by homebuyers (and the worst, investment units designed primarily for leasing).</p>
<p>More interest-only loans were reset in the third quarter.</p>
<p>Non-banks have been picking up more business, as expected.</p>
<p>With construction loans and the number of new dwellings financed now in decline new supply will be dropping off in time.</p>
<p>First homebuyers continued to account for about 18 per cent of new home loans, partly driven by incentives.</p>
<p><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em></p>
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Housing finance squeezed in August: Pete Wargent

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<div>I took a look at the Housing Finance figures for December previously. In this post, I'll just add a few sundry thoughts.<br><br>There are always plenty of angles put forward for why the housing market must be struggling, or will be set to struggle in due course, true enough.<br><br>And indeed, some locations are struggling, no question about that - mainly comprising mining towns, or regions being heavily impacted by the ongoing collapse in mining investment.<br><br>Anecodotally, mortgage lending has also perhaps been a little bit slower in January. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>It was interesting to note, however, that the raw original data (without seasonal adjustments applied) recorded $35,961,746,000 of dwelling finance commitments in the month of December, an increase of $2.3 billion or +6.7 per cent from one year ago.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>I'm no incurable optimist, but there's not too much wrong with the health of the lending market on that evidence. In fact it was the highest figure ever recorded for a single month.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/02/15/A7.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<p><img src="/images/2016/02/15/A7.jpg" alt=""> </p>
<p><span><span>Refinancing is evidently a complicating factor, as you can see in the chart above, but the value of loans actually advanced in December was up by +24.6 percent to its highest ever level at $23.8 billion.</span></span><br><br><span>I noted on </span>Twitter<span> last week that the average loan size figures seemed to have gotten a little ahead of themselves, and sure enough there was a pullback in December to a somewhat more believable $377,600, althought this is still +11.2 per cent higher than one year ago, and the figure still looks rather overstated. </span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/02/15/A2.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2016/02/15/A2.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Construction continues</span></strong><br><br></p>
<div>Much has also been written about the imminent downturn in residential construction sector. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In one sense this is a truism since construction activity is also now tracking at its highest every level, and clearly this dynamic cannot continue in perpetuity. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, the most recent housing finance figures suggested that there is still a fair amount of juice in the tank. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The rolling annual value of commitments for investor construction, which is a handy indicator if not anything more concrete than that, is up by +27.6 percent from one year ago. The equivalent figure for owner-occupier purchase of new dwellings is up by +15.7 percent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/02/15/A4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/02/15/A4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>The number of commitments for new dwelling purchase also jumped in December to 3,579 in original terms, and you would have to go back a long, long way to find a stronger monthly result than that. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/02/15/A6.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2016/02/15/A6.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>Major renovation activity has been marginally improved in recent months from 2014 levels, but in reality this has been almost exclusively a Sydney trend through this cycle to date. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/02/15/A3.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2016/02/15/A3.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">First time buyers are active</span></strong><br><br><div>The latest figures showed an increase in first homebuyer owner-occupier activity of +4.6 percent to 15.1 percent of all loans written. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/02/15/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/02/15/A1.jpg" alt=""></div>
</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span><span>If you include first time buyer investors from industry surveys, the total figure for first time buyers is tracking around 50 per cent higher than this.</span><br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong><br><br><span>Overall, it is clear that there has been a behavioural shift between lenders and borrowers towards favouring owner-occupier mortgages over investment loans, the lines between which have become hopelessly blurred.</span><br><br><span>The headline figures show that in aggregate housing finance remained relentlessly strong through 2015, even if some mining regions are feeling the burn.</span><br><br><span>According to CoreLogic-RP Data Sydney posted Very solid preliminary auction clearance rate of 78.6 per cent from 469 auctions, well ahead of the preliminary clearance rate for Melbourne at 72.6 per cent.</span><br><br><span>Vendors seem a bit more realistic, and these are still relatively low volumes. Most signs point to a steady Sydney market in 2016.</span><br><br><span>Westpac's forecasts for economic growth from 2015 to 2017:</span></span></div>
<div><span><span> </span></span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/02/15/GROWTH.jpg" target="_blank"><span><span>Click to enlarge</span></span></a></div>
<div><span><span><img src="/images/2016/02/15/GROWTH.jpg" alt=""></span></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Housing market in good health: Pete Wargent

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<div>At the headline level it was another spirited month for housing finance nationally, with the seasonally adjusted $32.6 billion in October being the sixth greatest month on record following a lending blitz through 2015.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Although owner-occupier commitments increased again in the month, investor finance continued to slump, dropping by 6.1%.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/12/9/HF1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/12/9/HF1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>The devil of this data series forever lies within the detail, with a number of sources indicating that there has been a level of jiggery-pokery with regards to the classification of loans between owner-occupiers and investors (since there is now a clear price incentive to opt for homebuyer loans).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The second chart below shows that owner-occupier commitments and refinancing have both increased solidly, while APRA's macroprudential measures have ensured that investor finance is now falling away quickly.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The net result was that total housing finance in trend terms remained flat in the month at $33.2 billion.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/12/9/HF2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/12/9/HF2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Whether or not housing markets can push forward in 2016 will depend upon the extent to which the growth in owner-occupier loans can offset declining investor lending. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Certainly we can see that the number of owner-occupier loans is trending up, but equally there is a chance that tightening mortgage rates could slow this sector of the market going forward.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/12/9/HF3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/12/9/HF3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">State versus state</span></strong><br><br><div>Skipping down to the state level we can see that the trend number of owner-occupier commitments is in decline in Western Australia, Tasmania, the Northern Territory, and Queensland, which is home to a significant number of declining regional markets in line with the resources investment collapse.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The trend in the number of owner-occupier commitments in the Australian Capital Territory has been stone dead flat for months.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The increase in the number of mortgages written has been driven purely by the two most populous states, New South Wales and Victoria. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/12/9/HF4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/12/9/HF4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Generally speaking the higher value loans are written in the capital cities, and as such the dollar value of owner-occupier commitments tends to be a better indicator of what is playing out in the capitals.<br><br>In terms of the trend <strong>value</strong> of owner-occupier commitments, both Western Australia and the Northern Territory are again in decline. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Brisbane market is faring relatively well at the present time, helping to nudge the aggregate value of owner-occupier commitments in Queensland steadily up, while Victoria and New South Wales in particular are rising fast.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In fact, trend monthly owner-occupier commitments in New South Wales have ripped up the chart to sit some 43 per cent higher over the year at more than $8 billion (awooga!).</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/12/9/HF5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/12/9/HF5.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>As noted, when it comes to housing finance the devil is always in the detail: more than $3 billion of the New South Wales monthly figure related to refinancing, and over the past year there has also been a slight uptick in finance for renovations.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/12/9/HF6.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/12/9/HF6.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><br></span></strong>
</div>
<div>Overall, there are many more different trends to cover than can be analysed in one blog post - it was a solid result nationally, and it all rather depends upon which market you are interested in.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>One thing that we can say with certainty is that the investor boom is a cooked goose for this cycle, with investor finance now down by 9.2 per cent year-on-year. In 2016, the homebuyer sector of the market will swim back into focus.</div>
<p> </p>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Investor boom is a cooked goose: Pete Wargent

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<div>Following APRA's actions to slow investor lending, annual credit growth in this sector has fallen very sharply over the past 9 months from 11 percent to 7 percent, with undoubtedly more declines to come.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Reserve Bank's Financial Aggregates figures for March showed that housing credit has continued to switch its focus towards homebuyers, with annual owner-occupier credit growth increasing to a 66-month high of 7.2 percent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The net result is that annual housing credit growth has gradually moderated to 7.2 percent, from a cyclical peak of 7.5 percent six months previously.</div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/05/02/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/05/02/A1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><br><span>Overall credit growth in the economy has also eased back to an annual pace of 6.2 per cent. </span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/05/02/A2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/05/02/A2.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Business and banking</span></strong></p>
<div>Business credit growth notched up a result of only 0.3 per cent growth for the month, with the annual pace of growth steady at 6.5 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This mirrors softening trends suggested elsewhere such as in the ABS lending finance data series, while initial and secondary capital raised on the securities exchange has also slowed in 2016.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/05/02/A4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/05/02/A4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The cost of business funding is at a record low, but research has shown that expected returns and hurdle rates can be a more important driver of business or project funding decisions.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In terms of bank lending and funding, although growth in term deposits has been understandably weak in the prevailing low interest rate environment, the growth in other bank deposits has been hugely strong.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Combined with equity raisings this means that banks will have few problems meeting their funding requirements in 2016, strong deposit growth and capital raised helping to offset any moderate rising in funding costs.</div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/05/02/a3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/05/02/a3.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p> </p>
<div>Bank funding costs declined significantly in 2015 in any event, and sit way below the levels seen in 2012 or during the financial crisis.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Housing and outstanding credit</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Although the pace of growth has slowed a notch, overall outstanding housing credit has continued to power higher to $1.55 trillion.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The composition of housing credit has shifted dramatically over the past eight months, with the investor share of outstanding credit having fallen by fully 3 per cent over that timeframe, a remarkably rapid shift in market dynamics exacerbated by loan reclassifications.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/05/02/A5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/05/02/A5.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>One other curious observation is how personal credit is actually now in decline. <br><br>One wonders whether this is related to the growth in the use of mortgage buffers and offset accounts, as it is certainly very unusual to see personal credit going backwards in Australia, even with mortgage repayments at such low levels for many existing homeowners.</div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/05/02/A6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/05/02/A6.jpg" alt=""></p>
<div>Total credit increased by 1.5 percent or $38 billion in the first quarter of 2016 to a grand total of $2.54 trillion.</div>
<p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Overall, the result was pretty much as expected on all fronts, with tightening measures restricting the annual growth in housing credit somewhat over the past six months to 7.2 per cent, and total credit growth a bit steadier at 6.4 percent.</span></p>
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Annual housing credit growth moderating: Pete Wargent

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<p>Each fortnight I update my chart of the titles registry figures for Queensland, although I don't post the results here all that often.</p>
<p>When figures aren't seasonally adjusted, it pays to be wary of drawing conclusions from individual weeks or months of data. </p>
<p>After all how many times have new home sales figures "peaked" in this cycle, or how may times has housing finance "tanked", or buying intentions "cratered", or consumer confidence been "smashed", and so on?</p>
<p>Every other month in each case, pretty much. </p>
<p>By drilling trendlines through the titles registry figures you can see that Queensland's mortgage and transfers market has ground its way through a long, slow recovery since bottoming around late 2011. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/15/QLD1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div id="post-body-8620627539950330204" class="post-body entry-content">
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/15/QLD1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>There was a blip in activity following APRA's initial salvo of macroprudential measures - and part of the increase in activity relates to a surge in multi-unit construction - but for now the uptrend in activity remains in place. </div>
<br><div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Brisbane land values rise</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Queensland Government updated its annual land valuations for 2017 last week, which showed a very wide range of outcomes across the state.<br><br>The post-2012 malaise continues apace across many of the resources regions.<br><br>There was more excruciating news for Gladstone which recorded another massive 20.6 per cent drop in median land values (although the Mayor kindly noted that residents shouldn't expect a reduction in their rates bill).<br><br>Over the past four years Gladstone land values have recorded losses of -5.4 per cent, -14.6 per cent, -4.8 per cent, and -20.6 per cent respectively.<br><br>Brutal, with land prices declining to just $113,000,<br><br>Dwelling prices have often seen drops of well over 50 per cent since 2012, and in many case rents have fallen by at least an equivalent amount.<br><br>The news wasn't much brighter in Mackay which racked up a third year of declines, and the Central Highlands saw land values fall for a fourth year, while Rockhampton saw land prices fall by 8.7 per cent from the preceding valuation date.<br><br>Townsville has also recorded moderate declines across the last five years.<br><br>There were bright spots, though, with the Gold Coast recording another year of recovery, and land prices notching up solid gains in Brisbane City Council (BCC), with the usual variances at the suburb level.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/15/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a><br><br><div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/15/A1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br>It is wise to exercise caution in interpreting suburb level median land values, not least because the Queensland Government rather likes to see those rateable land values rising for all-too-obvious reasons (though rates aren't based only on land valuations, the Government assures us!).<br><br>Changes in land use resulting from the BCC 2014 City Plan may also potentially skew the results in suburbs with increasing multi-unit development, for example.<br><br>Nevertheless, the figures are well worth a look, for the Valuer-General's figures logically cannot diverge too far from the reality over the long run.<br><br>Residential land values increased across some 132 Brisbane suburbs over the past year according to the 2017 report, although there were some declines in commercial and industrial valuations on the city fringe, according to the Valuer-General.<br><br>Over the past couple of years the greatest dollar value increases have largely been seen in the inner suburbs where land values are highest.<br><br>The following suburbs, for example, saw their median residential land values increase by $100,000 or more in only two years: New Farm, West End, Windsor, Wooloowin, Newmarket, Holland Park, Albion, Kedron, Annerley, Wilston, Carina Heights, and Carindale.<br><br>A vast wave of Chinese money has also seen Sunnybank and Sunnybank Hills notch outlandish increases in land values since 2014, the pocket known as Brisbane's "Little Asia".</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/15/A2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a><br><br><div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/15/A2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br>The largest two-year gains in percentage terms have been driven by a popular school catchment, however.<br><br>Suburbs located within the Mansfield State High School (SHS) catchment saw land prices rise by between 37 and 43 percent over the two-year period, including in the suburb of Mansfield itself, Wishart, Mackenzie, and Upper Mount Gravatt. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
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The good and the ugly behind Queensland's recovery: Pete Wargent

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<p><span>The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released housing finance data for July 2015 earlier this week.</span></p>
<p><span>Throughout July, there was $32.8 billion worth of housing finance commitments. This figure was comprised of $19.2 billion worth of commitments to owner occupiers and $13.6 billion in commitments to investors. Over the month, the total value of housing finance commitments increased by 1.5% to be 15.0% higher year-on-year.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/09/10/Chart-11.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/09/10/Chart-11.jpg" alt=""> </span></p>
<p><span><span>At $19.2 billion, owner occupier housing finance commitments increased by 2.2% over the month and were 13.9% higher year-on-year. Breaking the $19.2 billion into its components: $1.6 billion was for construction of dwellings, $1.1 billion was for the purchase of new dwellings, $6.2 billion was for refinances of established dwellings and $10.2 billion was for the purchase of established dwellings. Over the month, commitments for the construction of dwellings fell -1.5%, purchase of new dwellings rose 8.4%, refinances rose 3.3% and purchase of established dwellings rose 1.5%.  </span></span></p>
<p><span><span>Over the past 12 months the refinance segment has been the key driver of growth in the owner occupier lending segment with commitments up 23.7%. In comparison, year-on-year changes have been recorded at -7.6% for construction of dwellings, 15.4% for purchase of new dwellings and 12.6% for purchase of established dwellings. Recently growth in the owner occupier lending segment has been lacklustre, driven largely by refinances however, the 13.9% year-on-year rise in owner occupier housing finance commitments excluding refinances is the largest rise since February 2014.</span></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/09/10/Chart-21.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/09/10/Chart-21.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Turning to the investment segment of housing finance commitments, this has over recent years been a significant driver of new demand. In July 2015, investor housing finance commitments rose by 0.5% to be 16.5% higher year-on-year. If we look at the $13.6 billion in investment housing commitments across its components, $1.1 billion was for construction of new investment dwellings and $12.5 billion was for established homes. </p>
<p>Over the month, commitments for new construction rose 11.7% compared to a -0.4% fall in commitments for established homes. Year-on-year investor commitments for construction of new dwellings has increased by 81.5% compared to a 12.9% rise in the much larger segment for purchase of established investment homes.  The chart above shows the recent weakness in commitments for established homes and the ongoing rise in commitments for new construction.</p>
<p>It seems that there is a growing appetite for investment in off-the plan investment properties while demand for established investment stock is waning a little.  Despite the monthly rise in demand for investment lending, the rate of growth has started to ease as Australian authorised deposit-taking institutions (ADIs) tweak their lending policies in line with policy updates from APRA aimed at slowing growth in the pace of total investor housing credit.</p>
<p>Housing credit data for July 2015 showed that growth in owner occupier credit is ramping up while investor credit demand is potentially slowing. This release of housing finance data appears to support that notion. The ADIs will be hoping that they can entice additional activity from the owner occupier segment over the coming months as there is likely to be a slowdown in lending to the investment segment.</p>
<p>Housing finance data is continuing to rise however, it appears that growth is starting to tilt away from investors towards the owner occupier segment. Although regulators such as the Reserve Bank and APRA will be glad to see that exuberance from investment borrowers may be slowing, they will be very keen to monitor and ensure that any pick-up from owner occupier borrowers is not as a result of a relaxing of lending standards.</p>
<p>Both the housing credit and housing finance data will be closely monitored over the coming months in order to see if this transition continues. Specifically we will be watching whether housing credit can continue to increase its rate of growth and if new commitments continue to tilt away from investors towards owner occupiers and what impact that may have on housing finance demand.</p>
<p><em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/cameron-kusher/" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
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Housing finance commitments rise in July: Cameron Kusher

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<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Housing finance data for January 2016 shows that the value of housing finance commitments was recorded at $31.9 billion over the month. </span></p>
<p>Based on this figure, mortgage lending fell by -3.4 percent over the month.  Even though the data is seasonally adjusted, we often see falls in mortgage lending over January so perhaps we need not read too much into the fall, however, this is the largest January fall in lending since 2011.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/04/15/Chart-1-1-580x213.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/04/15/Chart-1-1-580x213.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Looking at the two major components of mortgage lending: owner occupier and investors both have recorded a fall over the month. In January there was $20.5 billion worth of finance commitments to owner occupiers and $11.4 billion in commitments to investors. The value of owner occupier commitments fell by -4.3 percent over the month but was 15.9 percent higher year-on-year.</p>
<p>Investor commitments fell by -1.6 percent in January and were -14.8 percent lower year-on-year. With investor demand having slowed over recent months, they now account for 35.6 percent of all mortgage commitments which is virtually right on its decade average after peaking at 43.3 percent of all housing finance commitments in May of last year.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/04/15/Chart-21-580x210.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/04/15/Chart-21-580x210.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Of the $20.5 billion in commitments to owner occupiers in January, $1.9 billion was for construction of dwellings, $1.2 billion was for purchase of new dwellings, $7.2 billion was for refinancing of established dwellings and $10.2 billion was for the purchase of other established dwellings.  Construction of dwellings was the only segment of lending to rise over the month (+0.7 percent) with falls in value of lending for purchase of new dwellings (-5.2 percent), refinancing established dwellings (-2.3 percent) and purchase of other established dwellings (-6.4 percent). </p>
<p>Despite monthly falls, year-on-year all segments have seen an increase in lending with construction of new dwellings rising 6.1 percent, purchase of new dwellings up 35.6 percent, refinances up 36.0 percent and purchase of other established dwellings having increased by 4.8 percent.  Although lending is up over the past year, there is a clear downwards trend in owner occupier lending, particularly for established dwellings, over recent months.  It will important to monitor whether this trend persists in coming months as it could point to slowing value growth.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/04/15/Chart-3-1-580x213.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/04/15/Chart-3-1-580x213.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Following intervention in the market by the regulator, we have seen a sharp slowdown in lending to the investment segment over the past 8 months.  As earlier mentioned, investors accounted for 43.3% of all housing finance commitments in May of last year with their proportion falling to 35.6% in January 2016.  Looking at the two components, in January 2016 there were $899 million worth of commitments for new construction and $10.5 billion worth of commitments for established housing stock. </p>
<p>Over the month, the value of commitments fell by -4.2% for new construction and by -1.4% for established housing stock.  Year-on-year the value of lending is 3.2% higher for new construction but -16.0% lower for established stock.  Much like the owner occupier chart, it shows that demand for established stock has eased and is trending lower, albeit at a slower pace.  In fact, the value of commitments for established investment stock is at its lowest level since April 2014.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/04/15/Chart-4-1-580x215.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/04/15/Chart-4-1-580x215.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The CoreLogic Mortgage Index which is published weekly and tracks mortgage activity across our proprietary platforms indicates that January was a weak month for housing finance commitments.  We would expect that housing finance commitments will rise in February and so far March also points to increasing demand.  However, mortgage demand remains lower than it was at the end of last year and lower than it was a year ago.  While housing finance commitments should increase from their January levels it is unlikely that demand will start to grow as strongly as it was in the early part of last year or late in 2015.</p>
<p>The constraints on investment lending have been extremely effective and have resulted in a swift and significant pull-back in demand, in fact the value of investment housing finance commitments in January was -20.0% lower than its April 2015 peak.  Although the CoreLogic Mortgage Index points to a rebound in demand over the coming months, we expect that growth in housing finance commitments will remain more subdued than what we saw over recent years. </p>
<p>Of course, the direction of housing finance will ultimately be determined by housing demand.  After demand weakened over the second half of 2015 we have seen stronger demand early in 2016 with much stronger auction clearance rates falling property listings in a number of cities and a rise in property transactions.</p>
<p><em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.</em></p>
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