<p>Developers and apartment buyers have a narrowing window of opportunity before Brisbane's Olympic infrastructure pipeline begins competing directly with residential construction, pushing up costs, tightening labour supply and making new projects increasingly difficult to deliver.</p>

<p>While Brisbane's apartment market continues to benefit from strong population growth and limited housing supply, industry research suggests the years leading up to 2027 could prove to be the most important period for developers looking to secure builders and buyers hoping to purchase before the next wave of price increases.</p>

<p>A new Colliers report, <em>Brisbane 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games: Creating Solutions</em>, highlights the scale of the challenge. While thousands of new homes are planned across South East Queensland, the Brisbane Olympic Athletes Village alone will deliver more than 10,500 beds during the Games before being converted into around 1,750 to 2,000 apartments. Equivalent to almost two years of typical inner-city apartment supply, the project will also absorb a significant share of the construction workforce and building materials.</p>

<p>The broader construction pipeline paints an even clearer picture.</p>

<p>Construction Skills Queensland's <em>Horizon 2032</em> report forecasts Queensland's annual construction pipeline will average $69 billion over the coming years before peaking at $75 billion in 2027-28. Demand for construction workers is expected to increase by 17 per cent to almost 150,000 people, with the industry facing an annual shortfall of around 19,000 workers that could blow out to as many as 35,000 during the peak construction period.</p>

<p>The Olympic venues, athletes village and supporting infrastructure will account for billions of dollars worth of work across South East Queensland through to 2032, creating intense competition for labour at a time when Australia's residential construction sector is already under pressure.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150489 project_image_fid=373834]</p>

<p>Colliers Queensland Residential Director Andrew Scriven said the convergence of these projects is creating a clear window of opportunity for both developers and buyers.</p>

<p>"From 2027 onwards, the market will shift dramatically," Scriven said.</p>

<p>"Labour will increasingly be locked into government-led infrastructure and Olympic projects, which means private residential developments will face higher costs and tighter margins. The developers who move now are the ones most likely to get projects off the ground."</p>

<p>Scriven said the same dynamic would also affect buyers, with fewer apartment projects expected to launch once construction capacity tightens.</p>

<p>"If you're looking to change your lifestyle over the next five years, now is your window of opportunity to buy."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150713 project_image_fid=373827]</p>

<p>Developers are already positioning themselves ahead of that window.</p>

<p>Following the success of Monarch at Toowong, Consolidated Properties is preparing to launch two new Brisbane apartment projects in the second half of 2026. They include <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/gloriette-30-bedivere-street-yeerongpilly-qld-4105">Gloriette</a> at Yeerongpilly Green, a 25-storey tower within one of Brisbane's key Olympic precincts, and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/castile-47-skyring-terrace-newstead-qld-4006">Castile</a>, a recently approved 25-storey riverfront development at 47 Skyring Terrace in Newstead.</p>

<p>Hutchinson Builders will deliver both projects, with early works already underway at Yeerongpilly and Newstead expected to commence later this year.</p>

<p>The timing comes as Brisbane's fundamentals continue to strengthen, with strong interstate migration, population growth and vacancy rates remaining below 1.5 per cent.</p>

<p>Colliers Queensland researcher Pragya Sharma said Greater Brisbane is forecast to require around 40,000 new apartments between 2021 and 2031.</p>

<p>"There's a real mismatch emerging between when housing is needed and when it will be feasible to build," Sharma said.</p>

<p>"As a result, the period leading up to 2027 presents a key window of opportunity for developers to secure approvals, funding and construction capacity, while buyers will have greater choice before supply constraints intensify."</p>


Colliers research outlines a critical pre-2027 window to start residential projects before labour squeeze: now is the time to buy

Joel Robinson

Developers, buyers on watch in South East Queensland ahead of construction crunch: Colliers

<p>It's taken less than nine months for developer Sherpa Property Group to sell out all 51 apartments in its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-oasis-palm-beach-7-9-sixth-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Oasis</a> development in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/palm-beach-qld-4221">Palm Beach</a>, over a year before its anticipated completion.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>Located at 7-9 Sixth Avenue, the $67 million development has resonated strongly with both local owner-occupiers and downsizers seeking high-quality apartments within walking distance of the beach, dining precincts and everyday amenities.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357458]</p>

<p>Christie Leet, Founder of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sherpa-property-group">Sherpa Group</a>, said the sell-out reflected both the strength of the Palm Beach market and the success of Sherpa's community-first approach to development.</p>

<p>"The sell-out of Oasis is a fantastic outcome and reinforces the strong demand we're seeing for thoughtfully designed apartments in lifestyle locations," Leet said.</p>

<p>"From the outset, our vision was to create a development that genuinely enhanced the Palm Beach community while providing residents with exceptional homes and wellness-focused amenities.</p>

<p>"We've been incredibly encouraged by the level of local support throughout the campaign, 72.5 per cent of buyers are locals, with a significant proportion of purchasers choosing Oasis as their future home rather than an investment."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357463]</p>

<p>Construction is now progressing following development approval, with trusted builder LPS Group delivering the project and completion anticipated in Q3 2027.</p>

<p>Oasis forms part of Sherpa Group's successful Flourish collection, which has become recognised for its focus on wellness, community and elevated coastal living.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357469]</p>

<p>Residents will have private access to a rooftop amenity space featuring a pool, gym, sauna, steam room, hot and cold plunge pools, spa and barbecue facilities.</p>

<p>"The success of Oasis demonstrates that buyers continue to prioritise quality, location and lifestyle," Leet said.</p>

<p>"We are proud to have delivered a project that has resonated so strongly with the market and look forward to bringing Oasis to life for our future residents."</p>

<p>Sherpa recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-palm-beach-1150-1160-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a>, its third instalment of the Flourish brand in Palm Beach following Flourish Oasis and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/amargo-6-12-sixth-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Amargo</a>.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=151449]</p>


Sherpa sells out Flourish Oasis in booming Palm Beach

<p>Urban Property Group's <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/la-vera-macquarie-park-94-talavera-road-macquarie-park-nsw-2113">La Vera</a> is leading the next phase of Macquarie Park's residential evolution, with the new apartment development set to become the first of several new apartment projects in the precinct to complete.</p>

<p>The 169-apartment building has now topped out ahead of its scheduled completion in the third quarter of 2026, as new residential investment continues to reshape one of Sydney's largest employment hubs into a true mixed-use precinct.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=368645]</p>

<p>Cox Architecture has designed La Vera to capture the best of its unique positioning on Talavera Road, orienting the building towards Lane Cove National Park.&nbsp;The building features a sculpted northern façade with flowing curves inspired by the surrounding landscape, while its city-facing elevation adopts a more structured architectural expression to maximise skyline views.</p>

<p>"The vision for the project was to conceive a building that adopted an organic and curvilinear form to the northern portion that faces the Lane Cove National Park," <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">Cox Architecture</a> Director Felipe Miranda said.</p>

<p>"The residents that reside in the northern portion of the building benefit by having beautifully crafted curved balconies that speak to the natural context and heighten the relationship of their internal living spaces to the external balconies."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=358802]</p>

<p>La Vera offers a diverse mix of one, two, three, and four-bedroom configurations, with prices currently starting from $740,000. Buyers so far have been a mix of Sydney-based investors,&nbsp;metro commuters, owner-occupiers and downsizers from surrounding North Shore suburbs.</p>

<p>Both investors and owner-occupiers have been drawn to La Vera's proximity to Macquarie University, Macquarie University Hospital, Macquarie Centre and the Sydney Metro, infrastructure that supports both strong rental demand and a convenient lifestyle for residents.</p>

<p>The apartments feature full-height glazing, timber flooring throughout living areas, stone kitchen benchtops, SMEG appliances, floor-to-ceiling bathroom tiling and ducted air conditioning.</p>

<p>Residents will have access to a rooftop recreation level featuring a swimming pool, sauna, barbecue facilities and landscaped relaxation areas, complemented by additional communal space at ground level. Many apartments enjoy uninterrupted views across Lane Cove National Park, reinforcing the project's connection to its natural setting.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=364551]</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a>, a family-owned developer and builder with nearly four decades of experience, holds a 4.5-star iCIRT rating and was Australia's first developer to introduce 10-Year Latent Defects Insurance (LDI). La Vera is the first apartment development in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/macquarie-park-nsw-2113">Macquarie Park</a> approved to offer the additional insurance protection, alongside a five-year warranty on SMEG appliances.</p>

<p>Urban Property Group CEO Patrick Elias said the additional protection reflects changing buyer expectations in the off the plan market.</p>

<p>"Consumers are a lot more weary and a lot more concerned in buying off the plan than they ever have been. Having LDI is a tool to portray the confidence that we have in our product, and a confidence we want buyers to share," Elias said.</p>

<p>Following completion of the building later this year, buyers will move into their apartments well before Christmas.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134951]</p>


La Vera closes in on completion as Macquarie Park continues residential transformation

<p>Brisbane developer Red &amp; Co's decision to include dual key apartments in its debut Gold Coast apartment development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/como-varsity-lakes-22-lake-street-varsity-lakes-qld-4227">COMO Varsity Lakes</a>, is proving to be one of the project's biggest drawcards, with buyers quickly snapping up the flexible residences.</p>

<p>More than half of the project's 36 dual key apartments have already sold, helping drive COMO beyond the 50 per cent sold mark within the first month of launch.</p>

<p>The strong response highlights growing demand for apartment designs that can adapt to changing lifestyles, with buyers increasingly looking for homes that accommodate multi-generational living, provide rental income opportunities or simply offer greater flexibility over time.</p>

<p>Located on the shores of Lake Orr, COMO will deliver 156 apartments across 16 levels, with the dual-key residences forming a limited release within the broader development.</p>

<p>Each combines a primary two-bedroom apartment with a fully self-contained studio on a single title, connected by a shared foyer and lockable internal door. The design allows owners to house ageing parents, adult children or guests while maintaining privacy, or lease the secondary residence to generate additional income.</p>

<p>Just 17 of the original 36 dual key apartments remain available.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=367096]</p>

<p>The innovative configuration combines two fully self-contained residences on a single title, typically comprising a primary two-bedroom apartment alongside a separate studio residence, connected via a shared foyer and lockable internal door.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The model is proving particularly attractive to owner occupiers navigating changing family dynamics and the realities of the current housing crisis.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=363511]</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/npa">NPA</a>&nbsp;CEO Andrew Erwin said dual key living was resonating strongly with modern buyers because it delivered both financial flexibility and practical lifestyle benefits.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“The housing crisis and rising cost of living are fundamentally changing how Australians think about home ownership,” Erwin said.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“Dual key apartments provide a genuine solution for families who want to stay connected while maintaining independence. Parents can help adult children save for a future home, ageing parents can remain nearby without moving into aged care, and owners still retain privacy and flexibility.</p>

<p>“Importantly, buyers are also recognising the financial advantages. It creates the opportunity to generate additional income from part of the home without the holding costs associated with owning a separate investment property.”&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=363509]</p>

<p>Unlike traditional dual occupancy arrangements, the residences operate under a single title, meaning owners only incur one set of body corporate fees, council rates and holding costs.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The secondary residence can also evolve over time - functioning as guest accommodation, a home office, creative studio or private retreat before later becoming an income-producing asset.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/red-co">Red &amp; Co</a>&nbsp;Director and Co-Founder David Laverty said the strong early sales reflected growing buyer urgency and changing priorities within the market.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“Securing more than half of COMO’s residences within such a short timeframe is an outstanding result and a clear endorsement of both the design and location,” Laverty said.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“Buyers are responding to the combination of location, connectivity and amenity, but ultimately it’s value relative to other East Coast markets that is driving enquiry.”&nbsp;</p>

<p>“We’re also seeing strong interest from owner occupiers looking for homes that can adapt with them over time. Flexibility has become one of the most important considerations for buyers in today’s market.”&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=363515]</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bda-architecture">BDA Architecture</a>, COMO features a mix of one-, two- and three-bedroom residences with 2.7-metre ceilings and larger-format floorplans aimed at owner occupiers, downsizers and lifestyle-focused buyers.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The development will feature an extensive rooftop recreation and wellness offering including a 25-metre lap pool, sundeck, barbecue and dining areas, gym, sauna, plunge baths, landscaped gardens, wellness spaces and rooftop pickleball and paddleball courts.</p>

<p>The remaining dual key apartments range from 137 sqm to 167 sqm and include generous three-bedroom layouts with separate self-contained studio accommodation and dual parking.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Erwin said the dual key concept represented a broader shift in how Australians would live in the future.</p>

<p>“People want homes that can evolve with their lives,” he said.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“A dual key apartment can suit a family today, support an ageing parent tomorrow, and potentially generate income later on. That adaptability is becoming incredibly valuable in the current environment.”</p>

<p>Prices currently range from $2,115,750 to $2,583,000.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135546]</p>


Inter-generational living drives demand for COMO’s dual key apartments as housing pressures reshape buyer priorities 

<p>Builder-developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/ceerose">Ceerose</a> has doubled down on its Leichhardt ambitions, lodging its second State Significant Development Application (SSDA) in the suburb in the last six months.</p>

<p>Their newest proposal seeks to transform a former industrial precinct into a new residential community centred around the adaptive reuse of one of the site's heritage warehouse buildings.</p>

<p>The new project, on a 6,930 sqm block at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/40-76-william-street-leichhardt-nsw-2040">40–76 William Street</a>, will bring more than 200 apartments to a suburb that has seen little to no new supply in recent years. It follows Ceerose's late 2025 SSDA for a mixed-use apartment project on nearby Parramatta Road, signalling the developer's growing investment in Sydney's Inner West.</p>

<p>Ceerose Founder Edward Doueihi told Apartments.com.au the developer’s long-standing presence in Leichhardt and the Inner West had given it a strong understanding of how the area has evolved and where its future opportunities lie.</p>

<p>“Ceerose has had a long-standing presence in Leichhardt and the Inner West, giving us a unique understanding of the area’s evolution and future potential,” Doueihi said.</p>

<p>“Having delivered projects throughout the region, we have witnessed the suburb’s transformation first-hand and understand the opportunities for its continued growth.”</p>

<p>Doueihi said that understanding also informed the planning process, with a comprehensive Stakeholder Engagement Outcomes Report prepared before the application was lodged.</p>

<p>The report identified the key issues and concerns raised by neighbouring residents and other stakeholders, allowing those matters to be considered and incorporated into the design where appropriate.</p>

<p>He said the delivery of additional housing would also play an important role in supporting the revitalisation of Norton Street and the Italian Forum.</p>

<p>“By increasing the local residential population, the development is expected to strengthen demand for local businesses, encourage further investment, and help restore the vibrancy that made the precinct a thriving destination in the early 2000s.”</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7258c54c-8167-479e-8361-2d5fca9915b4" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010B%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%202.jpg?VersionId=S9DQfxu_jpcB5LrAEYFUbyMzg5odW6i5" /></p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/woods-bagot">Woods Bagot</a>, the redevelopment would involve the demolition of four existing industrial buildings while retaining and adaptively reusing the site's most significant warehouse. The retained structure would anchor a new residential precinct comprising five interconnected buildings arranged around a large central landscaped courtyard, with heights stepping from five storeys along the surrounding residential streets to 11 storeys at the William Street corner.</p>

<p>According to the Architecture Design Report by Woods Bagot, the proposal "seeks to create a residential village centred around a generous green heart while celebrating the site's industrial heritage through the adaptive reuse of the existing warehouse building."</p>

<p>The development would comprise 203 apartments, with 188 proposed as build-to-sell residences, alongside 15 affordable housing apartments.</p>

<p>Rather than treating the retained warehouse as a standalone heritage object, Woods Bagot has sought to weave the site's industrial history throughout the masterplan. The proposal retains the north and west facades of the landmark corner warehouse, while new buildings reinterpret the site's brick-and-steel industrial language through their material palette and architectural expression.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="9e8c64c2-881b-49e1-8c90-6b6acaaa45b6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010C%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%203.jpg?VersionId=Qm8_8H_Xrg_sc4Mdjc59vlAcKF_5wRTb" /></p>

<p>The design is organised around what Woods Bagot describes as a "green heart", a landscaped communal open space that reinstates the leafy character removed when the site became an industrial storage facility. A new pedestrian laneway running through the site would improve permeability between William, North and Francis streets, linking residents through landscaped public spaces while activating the ground plane.</p>

<p>Residents would have access to communal gardens and shared recreation areas distributed throughout the development. Sustainability has also been prioritised, with the project targeting an average 7.9-star NatHERS rating. Proposed initiatives include rooftop solar generation, rainwater harvesting, passive solar design, naturally ventilated lobbies, extensive cross-ventilation and the reuse of existing building fabric to reduce embodied carbon.</p>

<p>The adaptive reuse strategy became a defining feature of the application after heritage investigations found only one of the site's industrial buildings could feasibly be retained. The Heritage Impact Statement concludes that preserving the key warehouse façades while referencing the site's industrial character throughout the new development provides an appropriate balance between renewal and conservation.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="efffafdb-594f-4e2b-a067-921fd51c05e1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010D%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%204.jpg?VersionId=DPmE4.k16YRt0i27hEZVtJAffarpvUfx" /></p>

<p>"Retention and adaptation of the site buildings has been explored but found not to be feasible except for the tallest building, whose street facades will be retained," the heritage report states.</p>

<p>"The proposed building will interpret the brick and steel character of the subject site, including reuse of some components and construction of a large 'sawtooth' structure in the proposed open space."</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3bfef2b5-83f5-40cd-9cab-767092f34266" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010E%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%205.jpg?VersionId=7asb3i_ql4ybbuJOUb5UHBEIy0Q9t.DF" /></p>

<p>The William Street site is located around 300 metres from Leichhardt North Light Rail station and a short walk to Norton Street's retail, dining and hospitality precinct. The surrounding area has increasingly become a focus for urban renewal given its proximity to public transport and the Parramatta Road corridor.</p>

<p>Doueihi founded Ceerose in 1998 and has grown the business to become one of Sydney's more active apartment developers in recent years, with completed projects including The Alex Collective in Alexandria, Abbie's Lane in Annandale, and the award-winning Munro House in Elizabeth Bay. They are currently delivering Belgravia, 17 luxury apartments in Potts Point.</p>


First look: Ceerose doubles down in Leichhardt with adaptive reuse of former warehouse site

Housing Finance

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<p>Earlier this week, housing finance data for August 2016 was released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). </p>
<p>Over the month there was $31.4 billion worth of housing finance commitments which was -1.0 percent lower over the month and -5.1 percent lower than it was at its peak in April 2015.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/10/13/chart-1-580x211.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<h1 class="title"> <img src="/images/2016/10/13/chart-1-580x211.jpg" alt="">
</h1>
<div class="entry">
<p>The $31.4 billion worth of commitments in August was split between $19.5 billion worth of commitments by owner occupiers and $11.9 billion in commitments to investors.</p>
<p>The value of lending to owner occupiers has fallen over two consecutive months while lending to investors has risen for the fourth consecutive month.  The value of lending to owner occupiers is now -8.6 percent lower than its peak in December 2015. </p>
<p>Investor lending remains well below its April 2015 peak, down -18.5 percent however, the recent rebound has seen the value of investor lending increase by 10.0 percent from its recent trough in April 2016.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/10/13/chart-2-580x210.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/10/13/chart-2-580x210.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The $19.5 billion worth of mortgage borrowing by owner occupiers was comprised of: $1.8 billion for construction of dwellings, $1.0 billion for purchase of new dwellings, $6.4 billion for refinancing of established dwellings and $10.2 billion for purchase of established dwellings. </p>
<p>The two largest components of owner occupier lending; refinancing and purchase of established dwellings, have both trended lower over recent months. </p>
<p>The value of refinance lending is -13.4 percent lower than its peak of $7.4 billion in December 2015 and purchase of established dwellings is -11.2 percent lower than its $11.5 billion peak in September 2015. </p>
<p>With an interest rate cut which wasn’t passed on in full by most lenders in August, there is a decent probability that refinance activity will increase over the coming months.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/10/13/chart-3-580x211.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/10/13/chart-3-580x211.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>For investors there was $11.9 billion in mortgage lending in August 2016, which was split between $0.9 billion in lending for construction and $11.1 billion for established housing. </p>
<p>The value of lending for construction was at its lowest level since September 2015 and down -49.5 percent from its recent peak of $1.7 billion in March 2016. </p>
<p>The $11.1 billion in lending for established housing has increased over four consecutive months and is at its highest level since August 2015. </p>
<p>Housing credit data also highlights the recent up-tick in investor mortgage lending with monthly investor credit data increasing over each of the five months to August 2016.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/10/13/chart-4-580x214.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/10/13/chart-4-580x214.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Focusing solely on new construction which includes owner occupier construction of dwellings, owner occupier purchase of new dwellings and investor lending for construction, there was $3.7 billion in lending in August 2016. </p>
<p>The $3.7 billion was the lowest value of lending for new housing since September 2015 with lending for new housing having trended lower since March 2016.  Based on this data, only 14.9 percent of the total value of housing finance commitments in August 2016 were for new housing. </p>
<p>Of the $3.7 billion, 23.1 percent of lending was to investors.</p>
<p>The trends ae emerging whereby demand from the investment segment is increasing again while owner occupier demand is slowing. Although investment demand is lifting, it is not expected to lift to the substantial levels recorded earlier in the current housing cycle. </p>
<p>The fading demand from owner occupiers reflects that many have already upgraded or downgraded in the current cycle as much as the fact that particularly in Sydney and Melbourne it is probably getting a little harder to justify a move in the context of significant transactional costs. </p>
<p>When owners look at the cost of upgrading and the market exit cost (agent commission etc) and entry costs (stamp duty) many are probably now considering a renovation as a better option than moving.</p>
<p>Housing market listings have increased in spring and over recent months auction volumes and clearance rates have also increased.  It will be interesting to see whether this translates into a lift in housing finance commitments over the coming months as the data becomes avaialable.</p>
<p><em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.</em></p>
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ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Investor housing demand rises as owner occupier fades: CoreLogic

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<div>GUEST OBSERVER</div>
<div> </div>
<div>I recently wrote here how it looked as though new home finance had shaped into quite a neat double top formation.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In November, finance for new owner-occupier purchases increased a bit, but overall the trendline does suggest that a second peak is forming. </div>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/23/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/01/23/A1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<p><br><span>The slight rebound ties in with the rebound in new home sales in the month, previously noted </span><a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2017/01/new-home-sales-rebound" target="_blank">here</a><span>.</span><br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Mainly investors buying new</span></strong><br><br><span>It's often said that investors mainly invest in established housing, with charts produced to prove it.</span><br><br></p>
<div>Of course, with the total dwelling stock only increasing by less than 2 per cent over the year to September 2016 to 9.76 million, it stands to reason that most investors will buy established - there just aren't that many new properties in any given year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>I have been more interested to know what percentage of the new housing stock was purchased by owner-occupiers, but nobody I have asked seems to know (or even care about) the answer.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The housing finance figures show that owner-occupiers financed the construction of only 68,200 homes and the purchase of just 31,490 dwellings. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>What the housing finance figures don't capture is that some owner-occupier buyers of new homes are cash buyers.<br><br>But nevertheless, it's clear that largely the buyers of new dwellings are investors, albeit many of them from overseas.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><em><span>PETE WARGENT </span>is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>. </em></div>
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New housing finance is topping out: Pete Wargent

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released lending finance data earlier today and when it is paired with the earlier housing finance data release, the figures provide insight into the value of mortgage lending over the month in each state and territory. </p>
<p>Over recent months investor demand for mortgages has been trending higher and this is being largely driven by resurgent investor demand in New South Wales and Victoria. </p>
<p>Of course the capital cities of these two states have consistently recorded the strongest value growth of all capital cities over the past five years and also have the lowest rental returns.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/25/chart-1-3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/01/25/chart-1-3.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The data analysed is based on the value of mortgage finance commitments. </p>
<p>Given this it is important to consider that more expensive markets (such as NSW) will tend to result in borrowers taking out larger mortgages whereas borrowers in more affordable markets will generally take out smaller mortgages.  More than half of all the mortgage lending to investors in November 2016 was lent in New South Wales and with a further 24.5 percent in Victoria, three quarters of all mortgage lending to investors occurred in the two most populous states.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/25/chart-2-3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/01/25/chart-2-3.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Looking only at new lending (that is excluding refinances) investors accounted for 56.7% of the value of lending in New South Wales in November 2016.  Looking over the past four years, the value of new lending to investors in New South Wales has been greater than new owner occupier lending for 42 of the past 48 months. </p>
<p>Victoria was previously seeing slightly more than 50% of new lending to investors but was recorded at 45.0% in November 2016.  Across the remaining states and territories, the proportion of total new lending to investors in November 2016 was recorded at: 39.7% in Queensland, 37.1% in South Australia, 31.0% in Western Australia, 26.1% in Tasmania, 40.3% in the Northern Territory and 38.7% in the Australian Capital Territory.</p>
<p>It’s clear that demand for mortgages from the investor segment is picking up, particularly in New South Wales and Victoria, which are proxies for Sydney and Melbourne respectively.  With a low cost of borrowing and many owner occupiers having seen substantial increases in housing equity in Sydney and Melbourne over the past 4.5 years it is easy to understand why investor demand is rising. </p>
<p>On the other side of things, you have a value growth phase that has now run for 4.5 years, largely focussed on two major cities and rental returns at historic low levels in these cities.  Investors should be considering the potential risks, especially as housing supply is responding and that the value growth phase is now quite mature.  While many have seen a substantial increase in the value of properties and may continue to do so, at some point growth will slow. </p>
<p>With record low yields, slow rental growth and additional housing supply entering the market over the coming years, if investors need to start relying on rental returns rather than increase in the asset value, boosting those returns is likely to prove difficult.</p>
<p><em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.</em></p>
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New lending to investors in NSW has accounted for more than half of all new lending for 42 of the past 48 months: Cameron Kusher

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>Total housing finance was lower as expected back in August at $30.67 billion in seasonally adjusted terms, well down from the peak of above $34 billion a year earlier.</p>
<p>The Reserve Bank of Australia posted some useful insights on household finances, financial stress (or rather the lack of it), and the impact of tighter lending standards on loan sizes.</p>
<p>The RBA doesn't always help itself when citing very old data, but made some handy insights on borrowing capacity, specifically noting how most loans are made significantly below borrowing capacity.</p>
<p>In the surveyed figures only about 13 per cent borrowed 90 per cent or more of the maximum amount potentially available, while some two-thirds borrowed only 70 per cent or less of their capacity (thereby implying that tighter lending standards only impact some borrowers).</p>
<p>This was to some extent borne out by the housing finance data, with average loan sizes having continued to rise for owner-occupiers to be significantly higher than a year earlier, including in all three of the most populous states.</p>
<p>The borrowers most likely to be materially impacted by tighter lending standards include portfolio investors, and this is also reflected in the totals for investment loans.</p>
<p>The monthly trend result for investment loans has fallen from $14 billion at the 2015 peak to $10 billion, suggesting that the best performing properties are likely to be those actively sought by homebuyers (and the worst, investment units designed primarily for leasing).</p>
<p>More interest-only loans were reset in the third quarter.</p>
<p>Non-banks have been picking up more business, as expected.</p>
<p>With construction loans and the number of new dwellings financed now in decline new supply will be dropping off in time.</p>
<p>First homebuyers continued to account for about 18 per cent of new home loans, partly driven by incentives.</p>
<p><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em></p>
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Housing finance squeezed in August: Pete Wargent

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<div>I took a look at the Housing Finance figures for December previously. In this post, I'll just add a few sundry thoughts.<br><br>There are always plenty of angles put forward for why the housing market must be struggling, or will be set to struggle in due course, true enough.<br><br>And indeed, some locations are struggling, no question about that - mainly comprising mining towns, or regions being heavily impacted by the ongoing collapse in mining investment.<br><br>Anecodotally, mortgage lending has also perhaps been a little bit slower in January. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>It was interesting to note, however, that the raw original data (without seasonal adjustments applied) recorded $35,961,746,000 of dwelling finance commitments in the month of December, an increase of $2.3 billion or +6.7 per cent from one year ago.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>I'm no incurable optimist, but there's not too much wrong with the health of the lending market on that evidence. In fact it was the highest figure ever recorded for a single month.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/02/15/A7.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<p><img src="/images/2016/02/15/A7.jpg" alt=""> </p>
<p><span><span>Refinancing is evidently a complicating factor, as you can see in the chart above, but the value of loans actually advanced in December was up by +24.6 percent to its highest ever level at $23.8 billion.</span></span><br><br><span>I noted on </span>Twitter<span> last week that the average loan size figures seemed to have gotten a little ahead of themselves, and sure enough there was a pullback in December to a somewhat more believable $377,600, althought this is still +11.2 per cent higher than one year ago, and the figure still looks rather overstated. </span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/02/15/A2.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2016/02/15/A2.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Construction continues</span></strong><br><br></p>
<div>Much has also been written about the imminent downturn in residential construction sector. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In one sense this is a truism since construction activity is also now tracking at its highest every level, and clearly this dynamic cannot continue in perpetuity. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, the most recent housing finance figures suggested that there is still a fair amount of juice in the tank. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The rolling annual value of commitments for investor construction, which is a handy indicator if not anything more concrete than that, is up by +27.6 percent from one year ago. The equivalent figure for owner-occupier purchase of new dwellings is up by +15.7 percent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/02/15/A4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/02/15/A4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>The number of commitments for new dwelling purchase also jumped in December to 3,579 in original terms, and you would have to go back a long, long way to find a stronger monthly result than that. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/02/15/A6.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2016/02/15/A6.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>Major renovation activity has been marginally improved in recent months from 2014 levels, but in reality this has been almost exclusively a Sydney trend through this cycle to date. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/02/15/A3.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2016/02/15/A3.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">First time buyers are active</span></strong><br><br><div>The latest figures showed an increase in first homebuyer owner-occupier activity of +4.6 percent to 15.1 percent of all loans written. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/02/15/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/02/15/A1.jpg" alt=""></div>
</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span><span>If you include first time buyer investors from industry surveys, the total figure for first time buyers is tracking around 50 per cent higher than this.</span><br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong><br><br><span>Overall, it is clear that there has been a behavioural shift between lenders and borrowers towards favouring owner-occupier mortgages over investment loans, the lines between which have become hopelessly blurred.</span><br><br><span>The headline figures show that in aggregate housing finance remained relentlessly strong through 2015, even if some mining regions are feeling the burn.</span><br><br><span>According to CoreLogic-RP Data Sydney posted Very solid preliminary auction clearance rate of 78.6 per cent from 469 auctions, well ahead of the preliminary clearance rate for Melbourne at 72.6 per cent.</span><br><br><span>Vendors seem a bit more realistic, and these are still relatively low volumes. Most signs point to a steady Sydney market in 2016.</span><br><br><span>Westpac's forecasts for economic growth from 2015 to 2017:</span></span></div>
<div><span><span> </span></span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/02/15/GROWTH.jpg" target="_blank"><span><span>Click to enlarge</span></span></a></div>
<div><span><span><img src="/images/2016/02/15/GROWTH.jpg" alt=""></span></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
<div><span><span> </span></span></div>
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Housing market in good health: Pete Wargent

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<div>At the headline level it was another spirited month for housing finance nationally, with the seasonally adjusted $32.6 billion in October being the sixth greatest month on record following a lending blitz through 2015.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Although owner-occupier commitments increased again in the month, investor finance continued to slump, dropping by 6.1%.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/12/9/HF1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/12/9/HF1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>The devil of this data series forever lies within the detail, with a number of sources indicating that there has been a level of jiggery-pokery with regards to the classification of loans between owner-occupiers and investors (since there is now a clear price incentive to opt for homebuyer loans).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The second chart below shows that owner-occupier commitments and refinancing have both increased solidly, while APRA's macroprudential measures have ensured that investor finance is now falling away quickly.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The net result was that total housing finance in trend terms remained flat in the month at $33.2 billion.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/12/9/HF2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/12/9/HF2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Whether or not housing markets can push forward in 2016 will depend upon the extent to which the growth in owner-occupier loans can offset declining investor lending. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Certainly we can see that the number of owner-occupier loans is trending up, but equally there is a chance that tightening mortgage rates could slow this sector of the market going forward.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/12/9/HF3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/12/9/HF3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">State versus state</span></strong><br><br><div>Skipping down to the state level we can see that the trend number of owner-occupier commitments is in decline in Western Australia, Tasmania, the Northern Territory, and Queensland, which is home to a significant number of declining regional markets in line with the resources investment collapse.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The trend in the number of owner-occupier commitments in the Australian Capital Territory has been stone dead flat for months.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The increase in the number of mortgages written has been driven purely by the two most populous states, New South Wales and Victoria. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/12/9/HF4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/12/9/HF4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Generally speaking the higher value loans are written in the capital cities, and as such the dollar value of owner-occupier commitments tends to be a better indicator of what is playing out in the capitals.<br><br>In terms of the trend <strong>value</strong> of owner-occupier commitments, both Western Australia and the Northern Territory are again in decline. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Brisbane market is faring relatively well at the present time, helping to nudge the aggregate value of owner-occupier commitments in Queensland steadily up, while Victoria and New South Wales in particular are rising fast.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In fact, trend monthly owner-occupier commitments in New South Wales have ripped up the chart to sit some 43 per cent higher over the year at more than $8 billion (awooga!).</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/12/9/HF5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/12/9/HF5.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>As noted, when it comes to housing finance the devil is always in the detail: more than $3 billion of the New South Wales monthly figure related to refinancing, and over the past year there has also been a slight uptick in finance for renovations.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/12/9/HF6.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/12/9/HF6.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><br></span></strong>
</div>
<div>Overall, there are many more different trends to cover than can be analysed in one blog post - it was a solid result nationally, and it all rather depends upon which market you are interested in.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>One thing that we can say with certainty is that the investor boom is a cooked goose for this cycle, with investor finance now down by 9.2 per cent year-on-year. In 2016, the homebuyer sector of the market will swim back into focus.</div>
<p> </p>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
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Investor boom is a cooked goose: Pete Wargent

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<div>Following APRA's actions to slow investor lending, annual credit growth in this sector has fallen very sharply over the past 9 months from 11 percent to 7 percent, with undoubtedly more declines to come.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Reserve Bank's Financial Aggregates figures for March showed that housing credit has continued to switch its focus towards homebuyers, with annual owner-occupier credit growth increasing to a 66-month high of 7.2 percent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The net result is that annual housing credit growth has gradually moderated to 7.2 percent, from a cyclical peak of 7.5 percent six months previously.</div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/05/02/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/05/02/A1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><br><span>Overall credit growth in the economy has also eased back to an annual pace of 6.2 per cent. </span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/05/02/A2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/05/02/A2.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Business and banking</span></strong></p>
<div>Business credit growth notched up a result of only 0.3 per cent growth for the month, with the annual pace of growth steady at 6.5 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This mirrors softening trends suggested elsewhere such as in the ABS lending finance data series, while initial and secondary capital raised on the securities exchange has also slowed in 2016.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/05/02/A4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/05/02/A4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The cost of business funding is at a record low, but research has shown that expected returns and hurdle rates can be a more important driver of business or project funding decisions.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In terms of bank lending and funding, although growth in term deposits has been understandably weak in the prevailing low interest rate environment, the growth in other bank deposits has been hugely strong.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Combined with equity raisings this means that banks will have few problems meeting their funding requirements in 2016, strong deposit growth and capital raised helping to offset any moderate rising in funding costs.</div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/05/02/a3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/05/02/a3.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p> </p>
<div>Bank funding costs declined significantly in 2015 in any event, and sit way below the levels seen in 2012 or during the financial crisis.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Housing and outstanding credit</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Although the pace of growth has slowed a notch, overall outstanding housing credit has continued to power higher to $1.55 trillion.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The composition of housing credit has shifted dramatically over the past eight months, with the investor share of outstanding credit having fallen by fully 3 per cent over that timeframe, a remarkably rapid shift in market dynamics exacerbated by loan reclassifications.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/05/02/A5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/05/02/A5.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>One other curious observation is how personal credit is actually now in decline. <br><br>One wonders whether this is related to the growth in the use of mortgage buffers and offset accounts, as it is certainly very unusual to see personal credit going backwards in Australia, even with mortgage repayments at such low levels for many existing homeowners.</div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/05/02/A6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/05/02/A6.jpg" alt=""></p>
<div>Total credit increased by 1.5 percent or $38 billion in the first quarter of 2016 to a grand total of $2.54 trillion.</div>
<p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Overall, the result was pretty much as expected on all fronts, with tightening measures restricting the annual growth in housing credit somewhat over the past six months to 7.2 per cent, and total credit growth a bit steadier at 6.4 percent.</span></p>
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Annual housing credit growth moderating: Pete Wargent

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<p>Each fortnight I update my chart of the titles registry figures for Queensland, although I don't post the results here all that often.</p>
<p>When figures aren't seasonally adjusted, it pays to be wary of drawing conclusions from individual weeks or months of data. </p>
<p>After all how many times have new home sales figures "peaked" in this cycle, or how may times has housing finance "tanked", or buying intentions "cratered", or consumer confidence been "smashed", and so on?</p>
<p>Every other month in each case, pretty much. </p>
<p>By drilling trendlines through the titles registry figures you can see that Queensland's mortgage and transfers market has ground its way through a long, slow recovery since bottoming around late 2011. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/15/QLD1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div id="post-body-8620627539950330204" class="post-body entry-content">
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/15/QLD1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>There was a blip in activity following APRA's initial salvo of macroprudential measures - and part of the increase in activity relates to a surge in multi-unit construction - but for now the uptrend in activity remains in place. </div>
<br><div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Brisbane land values rise</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Queensland Government updated its annual land valuations for 2017 last week, which showed a very wide range of outcomes across the state.<br><br>The post-2012 malaise continues apace across many of the resources regions.<br><br>There was more excruciating news for Gladstone which recorded another massive 20.6 per cent drop in median land values (although the Mayor kindly noted that residents shouldn't expect a reduction in their rates bill).<br><br>Over the past four years Gladstone land values have recorded losses of -5.4 per cent, -14.6 per cent, -4.8 per cent, and -20.6 per cent respectively.<br><br>Brutal, with land prices declining to just $113,000,<br><br>Dwelling prices have often seen drops of well over 50 per cent since 2012, and in many case rents have fallen by at least an equivalent amount.<br><br>The news wasn't much brighter in Mackay which racked up a third year of declines, and the Central Highlands saw land values fall for a fourth year, while Rockhampton saw land prices fall by 8.7 per cent from the preceding valuation date.<br><br>Townsville has also recorded moderate declines across the last five years.<br><br>There were bright spots, though, with the Gold Coast recording another year of recovery, and land prices notching up solid gains in Brisbane City Council (BCC), with the usual variances at the suburb level.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/15/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a><br><br><div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/15/A1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br>It is wise to exercise caution in interpreting suburb level median land values, not least because the Queensland Government rather likes to see those rateable land values rising for all-too-obvious reasons (though rates aren't based only on land valuations, the Government assures us!).<br><br>Changes in land use resulting from the BCC 2014 City Plan may also potentially skew the results in suburbs with increasing multi-unit development, for example.<br><br>Nevertheless, the figures are well worth a look, for the Valuer-General's figures logically cannot diverge too far from the reality over the long run.<br><br>Residential land values increased across some 132 Brisbane suburbs over the past year according to the 2017 report, although there were some declines in commercial and industrial valuations on the city fringe, according to the Valuer-General.<br><br>Over the past couple of years the greatest dollar value increases have largely been seen in the inner suburbs where land values are highest.<br><br>The following suburbs, for example, saw their median residential land values increase by $100,000 or more in only two years: New Farm, West End, Windsor, Wooloowin, Newmarket, Holland Park, Albion, Kedron, Annerley, Wilston, Carina Heights, and Carindale.<br><br>A vast wave of Chinese money has also seen Sunnybank and Sunnybank Hills notch outlandish increases in land values since 2014, the pocket known as Brisbane's "Little Asia".</div>
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<br>The largest two-year gains in percentage terms have been driven by a popular school catchment, however.<br><br>Suburbs located within the Mansfield State High School (SHS) catchment saw land prices rise by between 37 and 43 percent over the two-year period, including in the suburb of Mansfield itself, Wishart, Mackenzie, and Upper Mount Gravatt. </div>
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<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
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The good and the ugly behind Queensland's recovery: Pete Wargent

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<p><span>The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released housing finance data for July 2015 earlier this week.</span></p>
<p><span>Throughout July, there was $32.8 billion worth of housing finance commitments. This figure was comprised of $19.2 billion worth of commitments to owner occupiers and $13.6 billion in commitments to investors. Over the month, the total value of housing finance commitments increased by 1.5% to be 15.0% higher year-on-year.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/09/10/Chart-11.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/09/10/Chart-11.jpg" alt=""> </span></p>
<p><span><span>At $19.2 billion, owner occupier housing finance commitments increased by 2.2% over the month and were 13.9% higher year-on-year. Breaking the $19.2 billion into its components: $1.6 billion was for construction of dwellings, $1.1 billion was for the purchase of new dwellings, $6.2 billion was for refinances of established dwellings and $10.2 billion was for the purchase of established dwellings. Over the month, commitments for the construction of dwellings fell -1.5%, purchase of new dwellings rose 8.4%, refinances rose 3.3% and purchase of established dwellings rose 1.5%.  </span></span></p>
<p><span><span>Over the past 12 months the refinance segment has been the key driver of growth in the owner occupier lending segment with commitments up 23.7%. In comparison, year-on-year changes have been recorded at -7.6% for construction of dwellings, 15.4% for purchase of new dwellings and 12.6% for purchase of established dwellings. Recently growth in the owner occupier lending segment has been lacklustre, driven largely by refinances however, the 13.9% year-on-year rise in owner occupier housing finance commitments excluding refinances is the largest rise since February 2014.</span></span></p>
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<p><a href="/images/2015/09/10/Chart-21.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/09/10/Chart-21.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Turning to the investment segment of housing finance commitments, this has over recent years been a significant driver of new demand. In July 2015, investor housing finance commitments rose by 0.5% to be 16.5% higher year-on-year. If we look at the $13.6 billion in investment housing commitments across its components, $1.1 billion was for construction of new investment dwellings and $12.5 billion was for established homes. </p>
<p>Over the month, commitments for new construction rose 11.7% compared to a -0.4% fall in commitments for established homes. Year-on-year investor commitments for construction of new dwellings has increased by 81.5% compared to a 12.9% rise in the much larger segment for purchase of established investment homes.  The chart above shows the recent weakness in commitments for established homes and the ongoing rise in commitments for new construction.</p>
<p>It seems that there is a growing appetite for investment in off-the plan investment properties while demand for established investment stock is waning a little.  Despite the monthly rise in demand for investment lending, the rate of growth has started to ease as Australian authorised deposit-taking institutions (ADIs) tweak their lending policies in line with policy updates from APRA aimed at slowing growth in the pace of total investor housing credit.</p>
<p>Housing credit data for July 2015 showed that growth in owner occupier credit is ramping up while investor credit demand is potentially slowing. This release of housing finance data appears to support that notion. The ADIs will be hoping that they can entice additional activity from the owner occupier segment over the coming months as there is likely to be a slowdown in lending to the investment segment.</p>
<p>Housing finance data is continuing to rise however, it appears that growth is starting to tilt away from investors towards the owner occupier segment. Although regulators such as the Reserve Bank and APRA will be glad to see that exuberance from investment borrowers may be slowing, they will be very keen to monitor and ensure that any pick-up from owner occupier borrowers is not as a result of a relaxing of lending standards.</p>
<p>Both the housing credit and housing finance data will be closely monitored over the coming months in order to see if this transition continues. Specifically we will be watching whether housing credit can continue to increase its rate of growth and if new commitments continue to tilt away from investors towards owner occupiers and what impact that may have on housing finance demand.</p>
<p><em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/cameron-kusher/" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
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Housing finance commitments rise in July: Cameron Kusher

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<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Housing finance data for January 2016 shows that the value of housing finance commitments was recorded at $31.9 billion over the month. </span></p>
<p>Based on this figure, mortgage lending fell by -3.4 percent over the month.  Even though the data is seasonally adjusted, we often see falls in mortgage lending over January so perhaps we need not read too much into the fall, however, this is the largest January fall in lending since 2011.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/04/15/Chart-1-1-580x213.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/04/15/Chart-1-1-580x213.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Looking at the two major components of mortgage lending: owner occupier and investors both have recorded a fall over the month. In January there was $20.5 billion worth of finance commitments to owner occupiers and $11.4 billion in commitments to investors. The value of owner occupier commitments fell by -4.3 percent over the month but was 15.9 percent higher year-on-year.</p>
<p>Investor commitments fell by -1.6 percent in January and were -14.8 percent lower year-on-year. With investor demand having slowed over recent months, they now account for 35.6 percent of all mortgage commitments which is virtually right on its decade average after peaking at 43.3 percent of all housing finance commitments in May of last year.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/04/15/Chart-21-580x210.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/04/15/Chart-21-580x210.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Of the $20.5 billion in commitments to owner occupiers in January, $1.9 billion was for construction of dwellings, $1.2 billion was for purchase of new dwellings, $7.2 billion was for refinancing of established dwellings and $10.2 billion was for the purchase of other established dwellings.  Construction of dwellings was the only segment of lending to rise over the month (+0.7 percent) with falls in value of lending for purchase of new dwellings (-5.2 percent), refinancing established dwellings (-2.3 percent) and purchase of other established dwellings (-6.4 percent). </p>
<p>Despite monthly falls, year-on-year all segments have seen an increase in lending with construction of new dwellings rising 6.1 percent, purchase of new dwellings up 35.6 percent, refinances up 36.0 percent and purchase of other established dwellings having increased by 4.8 percent.  Although lending is up over the past year, there is a clear downwards trend in owner occupier lending, particularly for established dwellings, over recent months.  It will important to monitor whether this trend persists in coming months as it could point to slowing value growth.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/04/15/Chart-3-1-580x213.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/04/15/Chart-3-1-580x213.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Following intervention in the market by the regulator, we have seen a sharp slowdown in lending to the investment segment over the past 8 months.  As earlier mentioned, investors accounted for 43.3% of all housing finance commitments in May of last year with their proportion falling to 35.6% in January 2016.  Looking at the two components, in January 2016 there were $899 million worth of commitments for new construction and $10.5 billion worth of commitments for established housing stock. </p>
<p>Over the month, the value of commitments fell by -4.2% for new construction and by -1.4% for established housing stock.  Year-on-year the value of lending is 3.2% higher for new construction but -16.0% lower for established stock.  Much like the owner occupier chart, it shows that demand for established stock has eased and is trending lower, albeit at a slower pace.  In fact, the value of commitments for established investment stock is at its lowest level since April 2014.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/04/15/Chart-4-1-580x215.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/04/15/Chart-4-1-580x215.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The CoreLogic Mortgage Index which is published weekly and tracks mortgage activity across our proprietary platforms indicates that January was a weak month for housing finance commitments.  We would expect that housing finance commitments will rise in February and so far March also points to increasing demand.  However, mortgage demand remains lower than it was at the end of last year and lower than it was a year ago.  While housing finance commitments should increase from their January levels it is unlikely that demand will start to grow as strongly as it was in the early part of last year or late in 2015.</p>
<p>The constraints on investment lending have been extremely effective and have resulted in a swift and significant pull-back in demand, in fact the value of investment housing finance commitments in January was -20.0% lower than its April 2015 peak.  Although the CoreLogic Mortgage Index points to a rebound in demand over the coming months, we expect that growth in housing finance commitments will remain more subdued than what we saw over recent years. </p>
<p>Of course, the direction of housing finance will ultimately be determined by housing demand.  After demand weakened over the second half of 2015 we have seen stronger demand early in 2016 with much stronger auction clearance rates falling property listings in a number of cities and a rise in property transactions.</p>
<p><em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.</em></p>
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