<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/consolidated-properties">Consolidated Properties Group</a> (CPG) is approaching the launch of its latest Brisbane riverfront development, Castile, on the dress circle Skyring Terrace in Newstead.</p>

<p>VIP buyers are now being engaged, with a full public sales launch coming later this year.</p>

<p>Positioned as the final opportunity to secure a new absolute riverfront residence on the East bank of Newstead, Teneriffe or New Farm, Castile at 47 Skyring Terrace has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/woods-bagot">Woods Bagot</a> as a timeless addition to the Brisbane skyline.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150489 project_image_fid=371113]</p>

<p>The name Castile draws on themes of permanence, sophistication and legacy, reflecting a broader vision centred on enduring architecture and timelessness in the rarest of riverfront positions.&nbsp;</p>

<p>CPG Chairman and CEO Don O’Rorke said the project had been envisioned as a future Brisbane icon.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“With 47 metres of direct river frontage and never to be built out views, 47 Skyring Terrace is the definitive address on the Brisbane River,” O’Rorke said.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150489 project_image_fid=371114]</p>

<p>“Rather than following trend-based apartment design, Castile draws inspiration from Brisbane’s great heritage buildings, reinterpreting classical architecture into a contemporary riverfront landmark designed to stand proudly for the next 100 years,” he said.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The approved development will comprise 227 apartments across a 25-storey tower alongside a boutique six-storey riverfront building of just 12 residences.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Construction is scheduled to commence in September 2026.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150489]</p>


Joel Robinson

CPG unveils Castile Newstead ahead of upcoming sales launch

<p>Australia’s online shopping habits have shifted dramatically over the last decade. As eCommerce volumes surged, so too did the frustrations that came with traditional parcel delivery: missed deliveries, long Post Office queues, parcel theft and the challenge of being home during business hours.</p>

<p>Australia Post’s Parcel Lockers emerged as one of the more practical responses to that changing consumer behaviour.</p>

<p>What started as a relatively niche delivery option has evolved into a nationwide network of more than 1,400 self-service Parcel Lockers positioned at train stations, shopping centres, supermarkets and Post Offices across the country. The system allows Australians to send, collect and return parcels 24 hours a day, fundamentally changing how many people interact with deliveries.</p>

<p>The appeal is relatively straightforward: flexibility.</p>

<p>Instead of waiting at home for a delivery driver or rushing to a Post Office before closing time, users can direct eligible parcels to a Parcel Locker location of their choice. Once the parcel arrives, Australia Post sends a notification with a collection code or QR access through the AusPost app, allowing customers to retrieve their package at any time within the collection window.</p>

<p>For apartment residents in particular, the system has become increasingly valuable.</p>

<p>Higher-density living has created logistical challenges around deliveries, especially in buildings without concierge services or secure parcel rooms. Missed deliveries are common, while parcel theft has become an increasing concern as online shopping volumes continue to rise.</p>

<p>Australia Post itself has repeatedly highlighted the growing issue of “porch pirates” during peak shopping periods, encouraging customers to use Parcel Lockers as a safer alternative to unattended home deliveries.</p>

<p>That security aspect is one of the key reasons the Australia Post Parcel Locker network has grown so rapidly.</p>

<p>Parcel Lockers are positioned as secure, monitored collection points that reduce the risk of theft while also improving delivery efficiency for Australia Post. Instead of multiple redelivery attempts, parcels can be consolidated into a single secure destination.</p>

<p>The Parcel Lockers themselves are free to use through a MyPost account and support a range of parcel sizes up to 16 kilograms and dimensions of approximately 35 x 44 x 61 centimetres.</p>

<p>Beyond receiving parcels, the system has increasingly become integrated into the broader eCommerce ecosystem.</p>

<p>Customers can now use Parcel Lockers to return online purchases, while retailers have embraced the model as a way to improve delivery success rates and reduce friction in the shopping process. Australia Post has actively expanded partnerships with major retailers and promoted Parcel Lockers as part of a broader out-of-home strategy.</p>

<p>The timing of that expansion aligns with broader changes in Australian shopping behaviour.</p>

<p>The acceleration of online retail during and after the pandemic placed enormous pressure on delivery infrastructure. Parcel volumes reached record highs, particularly during Black Friday and Christmas periods, with Australia Post delivering more than 100 million parcels during peak festive seasons.</p>

<p>That growth forced logistics providers to rethink the “last mile” of delivery, widely regarded as the most expensive and operationally difficult stage of the process.</p>

<p>Parcel Locker systems have increasingly been viewed as part of the long-term solution.</p>

<p>The concept itself is not unique to Australia. Parcel Locker networks have become common globally, particularly across Europe and Asia, where dense urban environments and apartment living create similar logistical challenges. But Australia’s geography and suburban sprawl made adoption slower initially.</p>

<p>Now, however, the convenience factor is driving mainstream usage.</p>

<p>For commuters, Parcel Lockers near train stations allow parcels to be collected on the way home from work. For apartment dwellers, they remove the uncertainty around access and missed deliveries.</p>

<p>The rise of the AusPost app has also streamlined the experience, centralising notifications, tracking and Parcel Locker access into a single platform. Australia Post has increasingly pushed customers toward app-based delivery management, partly as a way to combat phishing scams and fake delivery notifications, which have become more sophisticated in recent years.</p>

<p>The Parcel Locker model is also beginning to influence property development itself.</p>

<p>Parcel management has become a growing consideration in apartment building design, particularly as online shopping becomes embedded in everyday life. Many new residential developments are now incorporating dedicated parcel rooms or Parcel Locker systems into foyers and communal spaces.</p>

<p>For developers, parcel management is increasingly viewed as part of the broader resident amenity offering, alongside gyms, wellness spaces and communal work areas.</p>

<p>That reflects a wider evolution in how residential buildings are designed.</p>

<p>Apartment buyers are placing greater emphasis on convenience, security and operational functionality, particularly in higher-density urban environments. Parcel delivery, once considered a minor operational detail, has become an increasingly important part of that equation.</p>

<p>Australia Post’s Parcel Locker network sits at the centre of that behavioural shift.</p>

<p>What began as a simple alternative delivery option has evolved into a key piece of infrastructure supporting Australia’s growing eCommerce economy and changing urban lifestyles.</p>

<p>And as online shopping continues to expand, the role of Parcel Lockers is likely to become even more embedded in how Australians live, shop and receive goods.</p>


How Australia Post Parcel Lockers changed parcel delivery convenience in Australia

<p>Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.</p>

<p>Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;</p>

<p>David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]</p>

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

<p>Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;</p>

<p>At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.</p>

<p>Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.</p>

<p>Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]</p>

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

<p>Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.</p>

<p>David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.</p>

<p>“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;</p>

<p>Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]</p>

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

<p>While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;</p>

<p>However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.</p>

<p>Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;</p>


Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.</p>

<p>The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.</p>

<p>Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.</p>

<p>“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.</p>

<p>“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”</p>

<p><img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" /></p>

<p>Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.</p>

<p>The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.</p>

<p>“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.</p>

<p>“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”</p>

<p><img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" /></p>

<p>Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.</p>

<p>“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.</p>

<p>The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.</p>

<p>“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”</p>

<p>The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.</p>

<p>The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.</p>


Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

<p>Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.</p>

<p>Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.</p>

<p>The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.</p>

<p>“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.</p>

<p>“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.</p>

<p>“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”</p>

<p>The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.</p>

<p>“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”</p>

<p>From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.</p>

<p>“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”</p>

<p>The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.</p>

<p>“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.</p>

<p>Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.</p>

<p>“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.</p>

<p>“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”</p>

<p>The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.</p>

<p>“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.</p>

<p>Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>


Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

Housing Finance

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<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Housing finance data for November 2015 was released this month by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed that on a seasonally adjusted basis, the value of housing finance commitments rose by 1.8% in November to $33.3 billion.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/01/18/Chart-1-1-580x208.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2016/01/18/Chart-1-1-580x208.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p>Looking at the different components of mortgage lending, it shows that the value of commitments to owner occupier non-first home buyers (subsequent buyers who are generally either upgrading or downgrading) is now greater than the value of commitments to investors. </p>
<p>With mortgage rates remaining low and competition from lenders being fierce, refinance activity continued to trend higher while demand from the first home buyer segment of the market remains quite weak.  As investment demand has faded, this demand has been replaced by demand from owner occupiers, mainly those upgrading or downgrading.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/01/18/Chart-2-1-580x207.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2016/01/18/Chart-2-1-580x207.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span>In November 2015 there was $21.8 billion worth of housing finance commitments to owner occupiers.  These commitments were split between $1.9 billion for construction of dwellings, $1.2 billion for purchase of new properties, $7.1 billion for refinances and the remaining $11.6 billion for purchase of established properties.  </span></p>
<p><span>A</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">s the chart shows, demand for new properties (construction and purchase of new) is fairly flat while refinance commitments and those for the purchase of established homes continues to rise strongly. Interestingly after its recent low of $17.6 billion in commitments in May 2015, the value of owner occupier commitments has increased by 23.3% to November 2015. </span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">If you look at the actual number of owner occupier housing finance commitments over the same period they have increased by a much lower 11.8%. This would suggest that although the number of commitments to owner occupiers is rising, the increase in the value of commitments is being exacerbated by borrowers taking out larger mortgages.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/01/18/Chart-3-580x210.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2016/01/18/Chart-3-580x210.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p>The value of investor housing finance commitments was recorded at $11.5 billion in November 2015.  Investor mortgage demand has fallen sharply since peaking at $14.2 billion in April 2015, down -18.7% to November 2015.  Although investor mortgage demand has slowed sharply over recent months, it actually rose by 0.7% over the month.</p>
<p>It is important to remember that the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority’s (APRA) guidelines aim to limit housing credit (total value of outstanding mortgages) to investors at 10% per annum.  Investor credit growth was recorded at 9.1% over the year to November 2015, comfortably within these guidelines.  Given this, it is no surprise we have seen a small bounce in investor mortgage demand and we may see further moderate increases over the coming months as lenders aim to grow investor credit at close to the 10% threshold.</p>
<p>Demand remains for mortgages despite the fact that banks have lifted mortgage rates independently of the Reserve Bank cash rate and have increased mortgage rates to investors. Understandably this has seen a slowing of demand from the investor segment of the market however, demand from owner occupiers is rising and currently filling the space. As previously mentioned demand from the investment segment may actually start to pick-up a little due to the fact investor credit growth is now comfortably below 10% per annum. </p>
<p>With home value growth in Sydney and Melbourne now showing signs of slowing it will be interesting to see over the coming months whether mortgage demand continues to grow. </p>
<p>If it does it may indicate that although demand in Sydney and Melbourne is slowing it is picking up elsewhere.</p>
<p><em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
</body></html>

ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Housing finance demand still growing, driven by owner occupier demand: Cameron Kusher

<html><body>
<p><span>The financial media had an arousing day extrapolating the January Housing Finance figures.</span></p>
<p><span>Although I didn't have time to read all of the articles, the headlines variously describing these data as confirming a housing downturn, a fall, a cooling, a sinking, and for reasons that weren't entirely clear, even "home loans dropping at their fastest rate in 7 years"!</span></p>
<p><span>In actual fact, home loan activity hit its highest level in 7 years last month, while the investor sector has slowed.</span></p>
<p><span>Whatevs, it's fairly typical for total dwelling finance to decline by 20 to 30 percent in January as Aussies focus on the beach or their Christmas turkey, so there is obviously a fair bit of reliance on how accurate or otherwise the seasonal adjustments prove to be.</span></p>
<p><span>Such data series tend to jump around a bit from month to month, so the important thing to do is follow the trend, and to observe the data in conjunction with other metrics.</span></p>
<p><span>The US nonfarm payroll figures represent a fine case in point, with a decline in average earnings of 3 cents in February variously intimated to be one of the biggest falls since Niagara, despite the fact that earnings had increased by 12 cents only in January.</span></p>
<p><span>Back to the housing figures, the original data showed total dwelling finance of $25 billion, which was only slightly higher than the total for the preceding January, underscoring the dampening of investor activity.</span></p>
<p><span>That said, the chart of original data below may simply be mimicking what happened to CoreLogic-RP Data's mortgage index, which observed platform events declining sharply for the same period before recovering strongly in more recent weeks.</span></p>
<p><br><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-5lbDdHSvarE/Vt_gJZwpUTI/AAAAAAAAbv8/XWUp4pI-wZs/s640/A3.jpg" width="640" height="344"><br><br><span>The most obvious explanation for the pullback is that the crackdown on investor finance has run interference on the pace of lending to that sector, as lenders continue to apply more rigorous criteria.</span><br><br><span>Certainly I've come across numerous examples of stymied demand relating to would-be investors who are needing to try several avenues in order to secure finance, and many are having to wait to secure loans (for example, needing time to save larger deposits, or to prove higher levels of serviceability).</span><br><br><span>With interest rate settings as low as they are, there is evidently an enormous pent up demand for investment loans, but APRA has quite sensibly decided not to let the investor sector get any further ahead of itself.</span><br><br><span>There is litte such weakness to be found in the owner-occupier lending sector, with the value of commitments in January well up on last year, and some +42.3 percent higher than the equivalent figure for January 2012.</span><br><br></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-cclSLOcaxcY/Vt_gJV7wfrI/AAAAAAAAbv4/sov-6_hRf8Q/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="356"></div>
<p><br><span>There has been a high volume of refinancing in recent weeks, which muddies the macro picture somewhat.</span><br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Construction boom set to peak</span></strong><br><br><span>The residential construction boom and its associated multiplier effect still has legs, but in reality the industry is already going like the clappers in Sydney and some other cities, to the extent that labour costs have spiked to reflect an industry operating at close to its full capacity.</span><br><br><span>This dynamic cannot continue in perpetuity - nor should it - and the downturn in the residential construction sector will likely begin to reveal itself at some point later in the calendar year.</span><br><br><span>While the data charted below are only indicative rather than definitive, they do appear to support the notion of an imminent peak.</span><br><br><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-L8_4S3F8M0E/Vt_gLG6bmyI/AAAAAAAAbwI/j2F3V_q7ICU/s640/A6.jpg" width="640" height="348"><br><br><span>Similarly the number of new dwellings financed is tracking at a historically high level, but also looks peaky.</span><br><br></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-BLyGNP_wCq0/Vt_gKf8ZhKI/AAAAAAAAbwA/Mb0ctNU9yT4/s640/A5.jpg" width="640" height="346"></div>
<p><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">First timers &amp; renovations</span></strong><br><br><span>First homebuyers accounted for only an estimated 15.1 percent of dwellings financed in January which is below the long run average, though the Australian Bureau of Statistics does note that this figure is only an estimate since some lenders are not yet reporting correctly.</span><br><br><span>Although conventional wisdom is that first homebuyers are inactive being priced out of the market, comprehensive surveys carried out by </span>Digital Finance Analytics<span> (DFA) have shown that many are opting to get onto the housing ladder as investors, as those of us active in the market are only too aware.</span><br><br><span>Actual first time buyer purchases have been tracking at around 13,000 per month in line with the long run average, with DFA surveys finding that many are using the "bank of Mum and Dad" (and some fortunate souls are buying for cash, thereby escaping being captured by the housing finance data entirely).</span><br><br><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-U-3JNA5yqVM/Vt_gKGkaAwI/AAAAAAAAbwE/b2EM0peyfWA/s640/A4.jpg" width="640" height="366"><br><br><span>Finally, it has taken a heck of a long time to get things moving but major renovations activity is at last picking up as households enjoy the wealth effect of cheaper mortgage repayments and rising dwelling prices.</span><br><br><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-28gyyeZ7js8/Vt_gJZoxSLI/AAAAAAAAbv0/O-qKsnqK880/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="352"><br><br><span>Sydney clearly leads the way in terms of renovation activity as one would expect. Outstanding research once gain by CoreLogic-RP Data featured on yesterday's national news showed that 18 of the top 20 suburbs with the highest percentage of home equity are unsurprisingly located in Sydney. The other two are in Melbourne.</span><br><br><span>The 20 suburbs and towns with the most depressed levels of home equity read like a list of yesterday's regional property hotspots, including but not limited to: Moranbah, Gladstone, Mackay, Whitsundays, Bundaberg, Mount Isa, Rockhampton, Whyalla, Greater Geraldton, and Muswellbrook.</span><br><br><span>Just as in regional New Zealand, the commodities crash has hit much of regional Australia hard.</span><br><br><span>Interestingly, we are presently in the midst of a commodity price mini-boom with oil prices rebounding and iron ore futures again hitting "limit up" during today's trade to hit their highest level since July 2015.</span><br><br><span>While this is potentially a welcome windfall for the budget, don't be headfaked by it - the resources construction collapse </span>still has a long, long way to run<span>, and the deleterious impacts will be felt across many regions for years to come.</span><br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong><br><br><span>Overall, it would be premature extrapolation to read too much in the January figures, even though the trend certainly points towards a considerably lower level of investor activity in 2016 than was the case at the mid-2015 peak.</span><br><br><span>As always, it also pays to recognise that there is one singular "housing market", since some markets are performing very strongly, helping to offset the poor perfomance in many resources regions.</span><br><br><span>News of a downturn would certainly be news to residents of Kingsford in Sydney, where an </span>unrenovated dump<span> on a 499.5 square metre plot sold for a an outrageous $3,065,000 on Saturday (this was more than $1 million over the reserve price, and note the price guide!), having previously fetched $1,015,000 back in March 2008, when many commentators were predicting a price correction.</span><br><br><span>Surry Hills, an inner Sydney suburb with a vacancy rate of just 1.1 per cent, has recorded a series of sprightly results, and doubtless there are plenty of other examples in the inner suburbs of Sydney. House prices in Brisbane are also rising, as I noted yesterday.</span></p>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
<p><span> </span></p>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Were the January housing figures really that bad? Pete Wargent

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<p>A pretty solid result for housing finance in May with seasonally adjusted total finance rising by 1.3 percent to just over $33 billion.  </p>
<p>Looking at the smoother trend figures, total housing finance has been fairly flat now for about two years, since macroprudential measures first kicked into gear. </p>
<p>The value of investors loans continues to moderate - with home loans by and large picking up the slack - and this rebalancing has manifested itself recently in rising rents in Sydney and Melbourne.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/12/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div id="post-body-7509613100154899672" class="post-body entry-content">
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/07/12/A1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div>First homebuyers accounted for 14 per cent of commitments in May, a slight rise. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>But the difference between the average loan size for first homebuyers at $318,000 and non first-homebuyers, which has surged again to $390,100, has blown out to its widest ever margin.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Even smoothing the figures for the last year shows the dichotomy, and it's making life challenging for first homebuyers. </div>
<div> </div>
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/12/A3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
</div>
<div class="post-body entry-content">
<br><div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/07/12/A3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div>Homebuyer commitments are trending higher in the two most populous states, largely offsetting corresponding declines in investor loans.</div>
<div> </div>
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/12/A2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
</div>
<div class="post-body entry-content">
<br><div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/07/12/A2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">New dwelling sales surge</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The number of new dwellings purchase by owner-occupiers has risen strongly to sit at close to the highest ever monthly level, matched only on one occasion during the days of financial crisis stimulus. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/12/A4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge </a></div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/07/12/A4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><span>It seems that developers in Queensland have successfully convinced more homebuyers to buy new.</span>
</div>
<div class="post-body entry-content"> </div>
<div class="post-body entry-content">
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/12/A5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a><br><br><div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/07/12/A5.jpg" alt=""></div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><br></span></strong><span>Lending for the construction of new dwellings was also strong, at its best level since early 2015.</span><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><br></span></strong>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Overall, a solid if unspectacular result, with the average loan size for non-first homebuyers blazing higher again to sit just a fraction below the 2015 record level of $390,700.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Investor loans continued to moderate as expected, and there will be a further slowing to come in the following months. </div>
<p> </p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
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Tough times for first homebuyers: Pete Wargent 

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<p class="p1">The seasonally adjusted number of home loans ticked down moderately by 0.5 percent to 54,468 in March 2017.</p>
<p class="p3">However the average loan size increased solidly, so combined with a modest 0.8 percent increase in investment lending to $13 billion total housing finance increased by 0.9 percent to $32 billion in the month. </p>
<p class="p3">Headlines variously and confusingly described the result as stronger, growing, dropping, and on the slide.</p>
<p class="p3">But at the national level at least, the trend has been pretty flat. </p>
<p class="p5"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/15/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p class="p5"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/05/15/A1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p class="p3">APRA only announced its latest round of curbs on interest-only lending at the end of the month of March, so the true impacts thereof will only be seen in the coming months.</p>
<p class="p3">However, the figures do suggest that lenders were already applying the brakes to investor loans to some extent before the regulatory announcement.</p>
<p class="p3">The average loan size for first homebuyers increased from $308,900 in February to $316,300 in March.</p>
<p class="p3">Meanwhile the average loan size for non-first homebuyers lifted from $360,600 to $375,800 in the month, though remaining some way below the record highs of 2015.</p>
<p class="p5"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/15/A3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p class="p5"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/05/15/A3.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p class="p3">The figures for new dwelling purchases by owner-occupiers were partly revised for 2012 and 2013, giving the below chart an altogether different feel than it had previously.</p>
<p class="p3">Some upbeat news for the housing market is that the number of new dwelling purchases by owner-occupiers has surged to the highest level since June 2007. </p>
<p class="p5"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/15/A4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p class="p5"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/05/15/A4.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p class="p3">Looking around the traps, both the number and value of home loans has continued to trend down in Western Australia. </p>
<p class="p5"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/15/A2.jpg" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: 12.16px;">Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p class="p5"><span style="font-size: 12.16px;"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/05/15/A2.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p class="p5"><span style="font-size: 12.16px;">I'll take a look at investor loans by state on Wednesday this week.</span></p>
<p class="p5"><strong style="font-size: 12.16px;">First homebuyers flounder</strong></p>
<p class="p3">The number of first homebuyer loans jumped by 20.5 percent to 7,946 in March from 6,596 in February, although this was largely a seasonal move.</p>
<p class="p3">The annual number of first homebuyers has trended steadily down since 2014, when the market had stabilised after the first homebuyer stimulus was withdrawn. </p>
<p class="p5"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/15/A5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p class="p5"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/05/15/A5.jpg" alt=""> </p>
<p class="p3">Many prospective first homebuyers in Sydney have opted to buy investment properties instead in the face of such a challenging market, and this is reflected in the decline in activity in New South Wales. </p>
<p class="p3"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/15/A6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p class="p3"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/05/15/A6.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p class="p3">The annual number of first homebuyers in Western Australia has also declined by 28 percent since October 2013 despite falling prices in the state's capital city, although there was perhaps the first hint of a bounce in March. </p>
<p class="p3"><strong>The wrap</strong></p>
<p class="p3">Overall this was a pretty solid result for housing finance in March, but since the figures pre-date APRA's latest round of curbs it will be more important to follow what plays out in the coming months. </p>
<p class="p3">Developers will be somewhat heartened to see the number of owner-occupier commitments to buy new dwellings rising close to their highest ever level in recent months. </p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
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Housing finance steady pre-APRA: Pete Wargent

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<div>Annual credit growth slowed to 4.5 per cent as at June 2018, well down from 5.4 per cent a year earlier, according to the Reserve Bank's latest Financial Aggregates. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Broad money growth fell to an anemic 1.9 per cent year-on-year in June - the lowest level since Bobby Brown was #1 in the Australian charts with Humpin' Around in September 1992 - a disagreeable image I'm sure you'll agree (and the credit aggregates weren't too flash either).</div>
<p> </p>
<div><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/--MhvxBg4fw4/W2AWC6XtIbI/AAAAAAAArSs/5Y5zgLbG2z4cn2rQlU91uA4FfacJWXP7QCLcBGAs/s640/RBA2.jpg" width="640" height="372" data-original-height="806" data-original-width="1384"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Personal credit shrank 1.3 per cent year-on-year, and the annual growth in business credit slowed to just 3.2 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Housing credit held up reasonably well at 5.6 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The monthly growth in mortgages was all driven by owner-occupiers, with total investment credit actually declining for only the third time since these records just before Bobby Brown. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>With more investors also now switching to paying down principal, investor credit as a share of total housing market outstanding loans fell to 33.5 per cent, which puts investor market share broadly back in line with the average level seen over the past 18 years since June 2000 of 33.2 per cent. </div>
<p> </p>
<div><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-j57Ykdonboo/W2AWC8rQffI/AAAAAAAArSo/igt0b2G41KgtCLYL9WArzYDP-iq1U03YwCEwYBhgL/s640/RBA1.jpg" width="640" height="350" data-original-height="797" data-original-width="1452"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Although housing credit as measured here is slowing, the APRA ADI figures also released today grew at a faster clip, implying in turn that non-ban lenders are picking up some of the slack. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Of of the larger players Westpac recorded solid growth in its home loan book, while Macquarie, Commonwealth Bank, and NAB notched higher totals for investment loans for the month of June.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In saying that, NAB's investor loan book has recorded only 2 per cent growth over the past year and CBA and ANZ are in negative territory, so there is potentially ample headroom for more investor lending to return forthwith (the 10 per cent growth cap has been shelved as redundant). </div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-B8BLQUx19Os/W2AcFelOndI/AAAAAAAArTE/dx-Gm0xyewsozM30UPyib3Pog-EQZBE8QCLcBGAs/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="374" data-original-height="802" data-original-width="1369"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Overall, housing credit still seems to be flowing freely enough, but the economy really needs to start generating household income growth to get things moving again. </div>
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Credit strangle continues for property investors: Pete Wargent

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<div>Total seasonally adjusted housing finance resumed its slowdown in declining by 1.6 per cent to $31.23 billion in June 2018, with slower mortgage processing times and tighter lending procedures biting.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>You might argue the toss over the classification of loans between investors and owner-occupiers, but the smoothed trend figures for total housing finance confirmed a continuing decline for an 11th consecutive month. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-CT5aAEtbmjw/W2q05bketOI/AAAAAAAArb8/ZXCZh6MCPWEoEEsvYPHSR8Bl7kV8ASOzQCLcBGAs/s1600/HF1.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-CT5aAEtbmjw/W2q05bketOI/AAAAAAAArb8/ZXCZh6MCPWEoEEsvYPHSR8Bl7kV8ASOzQCLcBGAs/s640/HF1.jpg" width="640" height="372" data-original-height="801" data-original-width="1378"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Housing finance tends to have a fairly good correlation with dwelling price action, though economists try a bit too hard on this point, curve-fitting charts with warped y-axes trying to prove a faultless correlation that doesn't quite exist. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>There are more factors at play, of course, as the residents of Hobart, Geelong, or indeed many suburbs of Brisbane would attest.<br><br>The share of the stock of outstanding loans pertaining to investors continued to decline on the ABS numbers, broadly mirroring what has been reported by the Reserve Bank. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong>State versus state (macropru hurts WA)</strong></div>
<div><strong> </strong></div>
<div>New South Wales has seen an ongoing trend decline in the number of owner-occupier commitments, with Queensland the only state to record an increase in the month of June (up 2.1 per cent). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Sydney's housing market downturn has now spanned 12 months, the same length of time as the 2008-9 downturn, and already longer than those seen in 1985, 1994-95 and 2015-16 respectively (hat tip to Cameron Kusher of CoreLogic for the stats). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>One of the consequences of macroprudential measures has been to hinder markets that are already struggling.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In Western Australia the number of home loans dropped to 4,602 in June, the lowest figure since May 1995 (when the population of the state was 1.7 million, compared to 2.6 million today, as highlighted by Shane Wright of the West Australian). </div>
<p> </p>
<div><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-PA8_Q5rUHWs/W2q05d2JAPI/AAAAAAAArb4/UpthfNlEW4Q-w52DCPEdAMvhVQAlfRUGACLcBGAs/s1600/HF2.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-PA8_Q5rUHWs/W2q05d2JAPI/AAAAAAAArb4/UpthfNlEW4Q-w52DCPEdAMvhVQAlfRUGACLcBGAs/s640/HF2.jpg" width="640" height="370" data-original-height="791" data-original-width="1361"></a></div>
<div>While some applications are clearly being knocked back, for borrowers of sound credit quality, there is robust competition from lenders.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Indeed, the average loan size remains 5.6 per cent higher than a year earlier. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>First homebuyers accounted for more than 18 per cent of owner-occupier commitments, a 6-year high, with the average loan size at $349,800 the highest figure recorded for any month to date. </div>
<p> </p>
<div><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-JkWsPF8C85A/W2q05TCi2uI/AAAAAAAArb0/2ViXbcb80kc1Krt7TcbgC-vp9HC5fGUowCLcBGAs/s1600/HF3.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-JkWsPF8C85A/W2q05TCi2uI/AAAAAAAArb0/2ViXbcb80kc1Krt7TcbgC-vp9HC5fGUowCLcBGAs/s640/HF3.jpg" width="640" height="370" data-original-height="804" data-original-width="1390"></a></div>
<p><br>There was a sharp 4.9 per cent drop in the number of commitments for new dwellings.<br><br><strong>Non-banks emerge</strong></p>
<div>A final point for today: Commonwealth Bank's release noted a loss of market share, a trend which is being echoed across the major banks.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The trend in non-bank lending on the other hand is benefitting entities such as Liberty Financial, Pepper, Firstmac, RESIMAC, and others.</div>
<p> </p>
<div><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6DEfTzpqOjI/W2q77TZr5WI/AAAAAAAArcY/6ZDWrIe6yX8wi-5Ep0d90bVnH5hBA_LjwCLcBGAs/s1600/HF4.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6DEfTzpqOjI/W2q77TZr5WI/AAAAAAAArcY/6ZDWrIe6yX8wi-5Ep0d90bVnH5hBA_LjwCLcBGAs/s640/HF4.jpg" width="640" height="378" data-original-height="792" data-original-width="1337"></a></div>
<p><strong>The wrap</strong><br><br>Soft housing finance result for June, and more softness is certainly expected for July.<br><br>How long the tightness in lending persists is unclear, but it's all pointing down at the moment.</p>
<p><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em></p>
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Housing finance resumes slowdown: Pete Wargent

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<p>Lending finance data for August 2015 was released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). </p>
<p>The latest data paired with the previously released housing finance commitments data shows that lending to investors has slowed sharply over recent months following the regulatory changes from APRA and the subsequent changes to lending policies from most mortgage lenders.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/10/13/Chart-13.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/10/13/Chart-13.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><span>The above chart shows the proportion of new lending to investors across each state and territory in August 2015.  Note that when we say new lending we exclude refinances as they are not associated with a new purchase of property.  New South Wales had the greatest proportion of new lending to investors over the month however, we have seen lending to this segment of the market slow across each state and territory.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/10/13/Chart-22.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/10/13/Chart-22.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p>Mortgage lending to investors peaked in May 2015 prior to most Australian ADI’s implementing changes to lending policies relating to investment mortgages.  At that time, the proportion of new lending to investors was much higher in each state and territory than it is currently.  In each state and territory there has been a significant decline in the value of new lending to investors between May and August of this year.  Across each state and territory the magnitude of the fall in investor lending has been recorded at: -10.5% in NSW, -14.0% in Vic, -15.2% in Qld, -17.0% in SA, -10.1% in WA, -10.0% in Tas, -35.6% in NT and -23.5% in ACT.</p>
<p>While new lending to investors has fallen away over recent months, there has been a rise in new lending to owner occupiers across some states and territories while others have seen falls across owner occupier lending too.  Between May 2015 and August 2015 the changes in the value of new lending to owner occupiers have been recorded at: +22.1% in NSW, +16.5% in Vic, +4.2% in Qld, +4.1% in SA, -2.4% in WA, -8.3% in Tas, -8.1% in NT and -10.8% in ACT.</p>
<p>As investor lending is slowing in NSW and Vic, lending to owner occupiers is generally picking-up which should help offset some of the slowdown in investment loans.  Elsewhere there has been no significant increase in owner occupier lending, or owner occupier lending has fallen; given this the data release may point to ongoing weaker housing market conditions outside of the two most populous states.</p>
<p>It’s important to note that this data only includes mortgage lending domestically.  What is not clear is to what extent the weakness in investor demand domestically over recent months is being offset by an uptick in demand from overseas.</p>
<p><em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/cameron-kusher/" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
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Sharp dip in investor housing demand since May: Cameron Kusher

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<div>Anyone who implies you that they have any genuine clarity around what is happening with Housing Finance data at the moment is telling you porkies, but since the September data was released today, let's at least see what we can deduce!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>At the margin there are evidently blurred lines between loans that are being classified as investor lending, and those which are determined to be owner-occupier approvals. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The figures reported for new investor lending dropped sharply in September to $12.3 billion on a seasonally adjusted basis, having pulled back from a record peak of above $14 billion in April. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>As sure as night follows day, however, with Australia's major lenders continuing to target high returns on equity (ROE) there will certainly be a strong push to promote owner-occupier lending (ask for a mortgage discount!), and this was once again in evidence with another 3 per cent seasonally adjusted surge in the value of commitments in September to more than $21 billion.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Thus while the monthly value of investor lending is now broadly flat year-on-year, the total value of owner-occupier commitments has leapt more than 23% higher.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/12/HF1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/11/12/HF1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Blurred lines</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Given the blurred lines in relation to loan classifications and refinancing right now, the most straightforward measure of housing market activity is simply to look at the aggregate value of housing finance. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>There was more than a slight suspicion that the rocketing value of owner-occupier commitments in the preceding month was partly a result of the mis-classification of refinancing as new lending.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>While this story remains somewhat unclear for now, the housing finance data showed another very strong month of lending in aggregate at a seasonally adjusted $33.4 billion, taking the trend estimate up to a fresh high.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/12/HF2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/11/12/HF2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Classification issues or no, given that total seasonally adjusted monthly housing finance breached $25 billion for the first time only two years previously in September 2013, a total result of $33.4 billion is a phenomenally high level of activity by any reckoning.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Ultimately, as pointed out by Reserve Bank Governor Stevens recently, borrowers can still source mortgage rates of close to 4 per cent despite the recent tightening on some investor loans, and there is still a good deal of appetite for borrowing where finance can be successfully sought.</div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Unintended consequences</span></strong><br><div> </div>
<div>Macroprudential measures taken to cool housing markets will inevitably have some unintended consequences, one of which may be that lenders demanding a high ROE target potential borrowers with existing equity, which in a curiously reflexive manner might skew lending towards markets which have already outperformed through the cycle.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>That is, cooling measures could accidentally spill fuel onto raging fires, since banks still have a desire to lend even in the face of stricter loan-to-value ratio (LVR) controls. </div>
<div>
<br>Certainly in London we saw the Pommie equivalent Mortgage Market Review (MMR) gum up UK market activity in aggregate, yet by the end of Q2 2014 the London housing market was blowing off in a spectacular starburst of bubbliness, recording its fastest annual rate of price growth in nearly three decades at +26 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Nor has the underlying problem remotely gone away since, with record low mortgage rates helping to thrust the average London house price considerably <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2015/10/average-london-house-price-500000" target="_blank">hig</a><span><a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2015/10/average-london-house-price-500000" target="_blank">her still to <span>£</span>500,000</a>, </span>and the latest <a href="https://www.cityam.com/228290/uk-house-prices-london-property-prices-to-rise-a-third-by-2019-as-demand-continues-to-outweigh-supply" target="_blank">forecasts</a> projecting another kamikaze 31 per cent boom in London house prices by 2019. </div>
<div>
<br>Commentary suggesting that Auckland house prices would be curbed by macroprudential measures also proved to be misguided, at least in the near term, with house prices thereafter bubbling up in rampant fashion towards the million dollar mark, although a reversal may at last now be falling due.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Another of the unintended consequences of macroprudential measures may be a premature end to Australia's residential building boom, with loans for the construction of new homes sinking almost right across the board over the past year, and investor loans for the construction of new residential properties having tanked by nearly a quarter.<br><br>Thirdly, tighter lending measures will almost certainly knock more budding first time buyers out of the market, with market share tumbling from 15.8 per cent to 15.4 per cent in the month, and first time investors or "rent-vestors" doubtless befalling a similar fate due to their lack of existing equity.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Granularity of markets</span></strong></div>
<div>
<br>In this context it will be interesting to see what happens to lending in Sydney and Melbourne over the year ahead, since there exists tentative evidence of similar patterns unfolding.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Of the 23 per cent boom in the value of monthly owner-occupier commitments over the past year, New South Wales has accounted for nearly two thirds of that increase, and Victoria one third.<br><br>The two most populous states - and home to the two capital cities which have overwhelmingly played host to the housing value growth through this cycle to date - have accounted for almost all of the increase in the value of lending.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/12/HF3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/11/12/HF3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Queensland is home to any number of regional markets which have floundered in contrast to their supposed hotspot status of 2012 - Moranbah, Dysart, Emerald, Bowen, Chinchilla, Roma, and Gladstone, to name but a few - so in this context the relatively moderate uptick in lending commitments at the state level can be no surprise.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Indeed the figures conversely augur well for housing market activity across the Greater Brisbane area given that the original data for Queensland in September showed solid total owner-occupier lending of $3.44 billion, taking lending volumes up to a 67 month high on a 12mMA basis.</div>
<br><div>As for the New South Wales figures in September, there has never been a month of home lending like it in Australia, with the original data busting out a +46.2% year-on-year increase in the value of lending to an astonishing $8.55 billion.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/12/HF4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/11/12/HF4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
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Investor lending cools: Pete Wargent

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<p>The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) has released its quarterly Authorised Deposit-taking Institution (ADI) property exposures data for the March 2016 quarter. </p>
<p>This data is really valuable as it provides additional insight into the mortgage market, including data which is not available from the monthly housing finance statistics.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/06/01/Chart-1-4-580x207.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/06/01/Chart-1-4-580x207.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The data initially focuses on outstanding total values and shows that at the end of the March 2016 quarter there was $906.7 billion outstanding to owner occupiers and $501.3 billion to investors.  While total lending continued to rise, up 8.7% year-on-year, it is interesting to see how the tilt away from investment lending has progressed.</p>
<p>Over the past 12 months, total investor lending has increased by just 0.1% with the total value of investor mortgage lending outstanding down -3.2% from its June 2015 quarter peak.  The data also indicates that investor credit growth now sits significantly below the APRA imposed 10% pa speed limit.  This could lead to a rebound in lending to investors over the coming quarters.  Total lending to owner occupiers has continued to increase and is up 14.0% year-on-year.  In terms of the total value of outstanding mortgages, owner occupiers account for 64.4% compared to 35.6% to investors.  The proportion of outstanding mortgages to investors has fallen sharply from its recent peak of 39.0% in June 2015.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/06/01/Chart-2-3-580x211.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/06/01/Chart-2-3-580x211.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Although the total value of outstanding mortgages is rising you can see that growth is generally slowing.  Mortgages with offset facilities account for a record-high 43.0% of all outstanding mortgages and the value of these mortgages has increased 20.4% year-on-year.  Interest-only mortgages account for 39.3% of total outstanding mortgages, with the value having increased by 9.6% year-on-year.  Reverse mortgages account for just 0.5% of all outstanding mortgages with the value of outstanding mortgages up 1.4% year-on-year.  Only 2.4% of the value of outstanding mortgages are for low-documentation loans and 0.1% are other non-standard loans.  Year-on-year the value of outstanding low-documentation mortgages is -16.5% lower and other non-standard mortgages are -4.0% lower.  In fact the total value of outstanding low-documentation and other non-standard mortgages is at a record low.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/06/01/Chart-3-3-580x208.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/06/01/Chart-3-3-580x208.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The average outstanding mortgage balance was recorded at $251,900 in March 2016, having increased by 4.8% year-on-year.  At the end of March 2016, the average outstanding balances across loan types were: $307,200 for loans with an offset, $334,400 for interest-only, $96,500 for reverse mortgages, $192,200 for low-documentation and $193,400 for other non-standard loans.  All loan types except for low-documentation (-1.1%) and other non-standard (-7.0%) have seen the average balance increase over the past year: offset (6.3%), interest-only (5.0%), reverse mortgages (2.4%).</p>
<p>To date, all data analysed has focused on total balances outstanding, the following data will focus specifically on quarterly new lending.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/06/01/Chart-4-2-580x208.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/06/01/Chart-4-2-580x208.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Over the March 2016 quarter there was $81.7 billion in new mortgage lending, which was the lowest quarterly value of new lending since the March 2014 quarter.  This figure comprises of $56.0 billion in lending to owner occupiers and $25.7 billion in lending to investors.  The value of new lending to owner occupiers has increased by 16.1% year-on-year while the value of investor lending is -25.5% lower year-on-year.  The value of new lending to investors is the lowest since the March 2013 quarter and is -37.7% lower from its peak over the June 2015 quarter.  The data indicates that there has been a significant pull-back in new lending to investors over recent quarters.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/06/01/Chart-5-1-580x207.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/06/01/Chart-5-1-580x207.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>With the value of new mortgage lending falling, the value of most loan types is now also falling.  Over the March 2016 quarter, 0.3% of new lending was for low documentation loans, 34.9% was for interest-only, 0.1% was for other non-standard loans, 46.5% was originated through third part channels and 3.8% of loans were approved outside of serviceability.  The value of new lending for low documentation mortgages was at a record low.  The value of new interest-only lending was the lowest since the March 2013 quarter.  The value of other non-standard lending was the lowest since the same quarter last year as was loans approved outside of serviceability.  The value of new mortgage lending by third parties was the lowest since the September 2014 quarter.</p>
<p>Higher loan to value ratio (LVR) lending is reducing meaning that borrowers are typically using larger deposits.  In fact, the value of new lending for LVRS above 90% in the March 2016 was the lowest since the March 2011 quarter and has fallen by -22.8% over the past year.  Lending for LVRs between 80% and 90% has increased by 2.7% year-on-year however, it has fallen over each of the past four quarters.  In fact, lending for LVRs above 80% represented 22.4% of all new lending in March 2016 which was its lowest proportion on record and well down from the peak in March 2009 where it accounted for 37.6% of all new lending.</p>
<p>The value of lending to investors is falling sharply as assessment criteria is tightened and investors are typically now charged a higher interest rate than owner occupiers.  Interest-only lending which APRA and the Reserve bank have previously sounded warnings about is also starting to fall and is now at its lowest level since March 2013.  Higher LVR lending which is associated with smaller deposits are also trending lower which indicates less risky lending.  The added benefit surrounding lower LVRs is that if a borrower has a deposit of more than 20% of the value of the property they can typically avoid lenders mortgage insurance (LMI).  New lending to loans outside of serviceability, low documentation loans and other non-standard loans has also been falling over recent quarters which is reflective of less risky lending practices being undertaken.  These emerging trends can only be positives for the stability and security of the Australian mortgage lending market.</p>
<p>Based on the data presented, it is apparent that tighter lending policies by lenders is having a noticeable impact on the mortgage market.</p>
<p><em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.</em></p>
<div class="sharedaddy sd-sharing-enabled"> </div>
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Tighter lending policies see a reduction in investor and riskier lending types: Cameron Kusher

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<div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Pouf!</span></strong><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><br></span></strong>In case it wasn't obvious, that was the sound of the mining construction boom vanishing into a cloud of coal dust.<br><br>Let's take a run through recent Lending Finance figures to see what we can learn.</div>
<div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Total lending softens again</span></strong><br><br>
</div>
<div>The data for January showed that total lending has pulled back a little from record highs in trend terms.<br><br>The seasonally adjusted lending finance result in September 2015 had been the highest in 7.5 years, but January saw another weaker month of lending recorded, in part due to the dampening of property investor loans.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In seasonally adjusted terms total lending was down by -2.9 per cent from December, with the trend inching down over the past four months from a high of $72.9 billion to $71.3 billion.<br><br>In trend terms total lending is now only +2.1 per cent higher than one year ago, and appears to be softening.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/03/14/A3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/03/14/A3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>One of the key narratives over the past six months or so has been that while property investor loans have been stymied, owner-occupier lending has by and large ramped up to take its place.<br><br>Indeed this has happened to the extent that APRA is now beginning to sense that some of these loan reclassifications might just be a bit fishy.<br><br>Owner-occupier commitments pulled back a bit in January, although major renovation activity is now increasing at last.<br><br><div>Yet overall trend owner-occupier housing commitments of $21.6 billion are an exceptionally strong +18.8 per cent higher than one year ago. </div>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Business lending pulled back by a seasonally adjusted -2.5 per cent in January, reflected by the commercial finance trend in the chart below, the softer figures in part reflecting a huge year-on-year decline in commercial loans to the mining sector, although agriculture finance has been rising solidly since 2013.<br><br>Lease finance, which represents only a small part of total lending finance, increased by 3.7 per cent in January.<br><br>Here's the summary chart, presented in trend terms:</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/03/14/A4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/03/14/A4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Industry &amp; state trends</span></strong><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><br></span></strong><span>Looking at commercial fixed loans by industry shows that with a couple of mega projects now dropping off the annualised data, commercial financing to the mining sector has shrunk by more than a quarter.</span><br><br><span>Fortunately for the economy at the national level, mining represents only a relatively small part of the total and a number of other industries have helped to pick up the slack, although this is unlikely to be much compensation for the struggling regions.</span><br><br><span>At the state level, Victoria (+13 per cent), Queensland (+11 per cent), and New South Wales (+8 per cent) have all enjoyed a solid uplift in commercial finance over the last year in rolling annual terms, but the other resources states of Western Australia and the Northern Territory have seen activity decline.</span>
</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/03/14/A6.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2016/03/14/A6.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Investor lending stymied</span></strong></div>
<div>
<br>As noted above, property investor lending has been dampened, to be replaced by a rise in home loan activity.<br><br>
</div>
<div>Nowhere has this been more so in evidence than in Sydney where home loan commitments have exploded higher, mirroring a corresponding decline in investor loans. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The property investor loans figures are not seasonally adjusted, and so are presented below on a rolling annual basis.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Lately the best performing states for property investment loans have been Queensland, Tasmania, and South Australia, not least because these states did not experience the great boom that New South Wales and Victoria did.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/03/14/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/03/14/A1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>On the other hand investor activity in the Northern Territory continues to plummet back to monthly volumes last seen five years ago. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The rolling annual total of property investor loans in the "Top End" has declined by 29.4 per cent in the past year alone, to now be down by 33.9 per cent from the September 2014 peak.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/03/14/A2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/03/14/A2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<span>There is a significant dwelling price correction in the post for Darwin, with rents also having fallen sharply.</span><br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong><br><br><div>Overall, January proved to be a softer month for lending, as might have been expected following on from Wednesday's housing finance data.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>These figures present further evidence of the conspicuous and precipitous decline in mining construction.<br><br>Total lending finance has eased over the past few months, although the headline figure remains strong enough in historical terms.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
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