Roseville is poised for a wave of new apartment development following the NSW Government's rezoning of land around Roseville Station under its Transport Oriented Development program.

The new planning controls have unlocked significant development potential within walking distance of the station, with a number of sites expected to be amalgamated and redeveloped in the coming years as developers seek to take advantage of the increased density allowances.

One of the more restrained developments in the precinct, and set among the first to be delivered having commenced well before the recent changes, is Hyecorp's Juliet. The boutique apartment project is already well under construction and remains on track to welcome residents by the end of the year, offering a markedly different proposition to many of the larger-scale developments now likely to emerge across the suburb.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278194]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/juliet-roseville-64-pacific-highway-roseville-nsw-2069">Juliet</a> will comprise just&nbsp;34 one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments opposite Roseville Station. For Hyecorp, which has delivered projects across Sydney's Lower North Shore for more than three decades, Roseville presented a rare opportunity to address a growing gap in the market.

"<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/roseville-nsw-2069">Roseville</a> has long been one of the North Shore's most tightly held and desirable suburbs, offering a unique combination of village charm, established greenery, excellent transport connections, and proximity to some of Sydney's best schools and lifestyle amenities," Hyecorp said.

"We recognised a growing demand from local homeowners seeking to downsize without leaving the community they have built their lives around. The location presented a rare opportunity to create homes that cater specifically to that buyer profile."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278196]

The six-level development has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/pbd-architects">PBD Architects</a> as a collection of residences that feel more like homes than apartments. The brief centred generous floorplans, abundant natural light, quality finishes, and strong connections to outdoor space.

PBD Architects drew inspiration from Roseville's established garden suburb character, creating a building that sits comfortably within its surroundings rather than dominating them. The architecture incorporates natural materials, soft forms, layered landscaping, expansive balconies, and generous setbacks to strengthen the connection between residents and the suburb's leafy environment.

"The focus was on designing spacious, house-like residences for discerning owner-occupiers and downsizers who wanted to remain on the North Shore without compromising on comfort, privacy, or design," PBD said.&nbsp;

"Every apartment was to feel considered, timeless, and highly functional."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278195]

Inside, residences feature engineered timber flooring, stone kitchen benchtops and splashbacks, integrated Fisher &amp; Paykel appliances, ducted air conditioning, and large outdoor entertaining areas designed to take advantage of district and treetop views.

Residents will also have access to a rooftop barbecue and lounge area, alongside practical amenities including parcel lockers, EV charging capability, bicycle storage, a dog wash bay, and a basement car wash facility.

The majority of purchasers so far have been local owner-occupiers from Roseville, Lindfield, Chatswood, Killara, and the broader Upper North Shore, many of whom are transitioning from larger family homes.

"Buyers are looking for spacious, house-like apartments that allow them to downsize without feeling like they are sacrificing comfort or functionality," Hyecorp noted.

"They value large kitchens, generous living areas, ample storage, quality finishes, secure parking, lift access, and low-maintenance living."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278204]

Juliet sits directly opposite Roseville Train Station and within walking distance of Roseville Village, while Chatswood's retail and dining precinct is only minutes away. The development is also surrounded by some of Sydney's most established schools, including Roseville College, Ravenswood, Pymble Ladies' College, and Knox Grammar, as well as nearby parklands and golf courses.

Juliet is currently more than 75 per cent sold ahead of its anticipated completion in late 2026.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=7395]

Joel Robinson

Juliet to sit quietly amid Roseville apartment boom

Sherpa Property Group has unveiled the third instalment of its Flourish series, securing full approval for the two-tower, $500 million Flourish Soleira development in Palm Beach.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-1150-1154-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a> will rise from a prominent site in the commercial heart of Palm Beach, the long-time home of Cash Converters and a range of local retailers.

The project will introduce a new retail and dining precinct at ground level, beneath 286 apartments.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370959]

“We’re very committed to not only providing affordable residential offerings that are much needed in Palm Beach, but also delivering a vibrant new commercial heart that complements the extraordinary growth of the southern Gold Coast,” Sherpa Property Group founder Christie Leet said.

The development will sit under Sherpa's Flourish brand, which is aimed at providing a pathway into the beachside suburb for locals, first-home buyers and downsizers. In a move designed to assist first-home buyers entering the market, Sherpa has reserved all one and two-bedroom, one-bathroom apartments exclusively for eligible first-home buyers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370964]

“Our vision through Flourish is to create a vibrant retail and lifestyle focal point within the Palm Beach centre zone, delivering thriving communities underpinned by lifestyle-rich locations,” Leet said.

“So far, Flourish has been an incredible success, and we hope to carry this momentum as we progress the next two Flourish projects in Palm Beach.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=371430]

Located across 1150-1164 Gold Coast Highway and 3 Sixth Avenue, the development will comprise two towers. The northern tower will deliver 154 apartments, while the southern tower will add a further 132 residences, helping address ongoing demand for new apartments in the tightly held coastal suburb.

Flourish Soleira will also feature the most extensive rooftop amenity offering ever delivered in Palm Beach.

The two towers will be connected by a skybridge, with residents gaining access to a rooftop recreation deck featuring a full-width swimming pool, hot and cold plunge pools, wellness spaces, a gymnasium, private dining facilities, massage treatment rooms, barbecue areas, a basketball court, golf simulator, indoor and outdoor dining spaces, sun lounges and extensive landscaping.

LPS Group is expected to start construction later this year.

Sherpa is already well advanced on construction of its debut Flourish project, Flourish Amargo, located just around the corner from Soleira. Meanwhile, Flourish Oasis, positioned opposite Amargo, recently commenced construction and has nearly sold out its collection of 47 apartments.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150017]

Sherpa unveils $500m mixed-use Palm Beach precinct, Flourish Soleira

Are mortgage holders set to get a reprieve from the RBA in 2026?

Big Four bank NAB believes so. They are now expecting the next move from the RBA to be a cut, rather than a hike, which they had pencilled in for August. They are unsure of the timing of the cut however, they note in their latest&nbsp;NAB Economics RBA Watch.

NAB Chief Economist, Dr Sally Auld, said recent data suggests the economy has lost momentum and the outlook for rates has shifted, noting that the broader economic backdrop has changed since earlier in the year.

“The next move in the cash rate is likely to be down, but the timing is uncertain," Dr Auld said.

"In February, growth was above trend, the economy was operating above capacity and there was uncertainty over the restrictiveness of rates. None of these conditions exist today,” she outlined.

Dr Auld said recent data pointed to softer momentum across the economy while acknowledging that at the same time, uncertainty remains a key feature of the outlook.

“Both Q1 GDP data and the NAB business survey suggest momentum in the economy has slowed, meaning that growth has likely peaked for the cycle. That said, we are cognisant there is still considerable uncertainty around the outlook, both with respect to activity and inflation.”

Dr Auld said inflation risks and labour market outcomes would be important to watch.

“On the prices side, we are still forecasting above target core inflation through to mid-2027. Margins will compress and weaker labour market outcomes are a risk.”

She said tighter financial conditions are expected to weigh on housing and activity.

“Tighter financial conditions will be reflected in a slowing in house price growth and housing credit growth. In summary, we have greater conviction that the next move in rates is down, but less conviction on the timing.”

Mortgage relief? NAB forecasts RBA rate cut, not hike, after softer economic conditions

A local downsizer has splashed $6.5 million on a penthouse in Perifa's Alex &amp; Willow development in Crows Nest. 
&nbsp; 
The purchaser sold their long-held family home in the area before embarking on a six-month search for the right apartment. After inspecting a range of options across the Lower North Shore, the buyer returned to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/alex-willow-crows-nest-82-90-alexander-street-crows-nest-nsw-2065">Alex &amp; Willow</a>. 
&nbsp; 
The buyer profile reflects the project’s broader purchaser mix. <a>Alex &amp; Willow</a> has attracted predominantly local downsizers looking to transition from larger homes without compromising on space or quality, alongside a smaller cohort of upsizers and investors drawn to the project’s location and design credentials. 
&nbsp; 
The milestone sale comes as the project, developed by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/perifa">Perifa</a>&nbsp;and delivered by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/versatile-made-construction">Versatile Construction</a>, both part of Versatile Group, reaches 60 per cent sold.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6680 project_image_fid=371325] 
&nbsp; 
Eddie Mansour, Managing Partner of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/ray-white-projects">Ray White Projects</a>, said the result demonstrates not only a headline price but also depth of demand. 
&nbsp; 
“This is an exceptional outcome and a clear reflection of sustained buyer demand for premium, well-located downsizer product,” Mansour said.

“We’re seeing a consistent pattern of local homeowners selling family residences and reinvesting into high-quality apartments that allow them to remain within their community. Alex &amp; Willow has resonated strongly with this group because it offers genuine scale, thoughtful design and immediate proximity to the village.” 
&nbsp; 
The sale reflects a broader and consistent trend of local downsizers actively seeking high-quality, low-maintenance residences close to established village centres. Agents report that demand for this product type has remained resilient, particularly where developments offer a rare combination of scale, design quality and walkable amenity. 
&nbsp;&nbsp; 
Fabrizio Perilli, Managing Director of Perifa and Versatile Group, said the sale marks a defining moment for the project. 
&nbsp; 
“The penthouse sale is a strong endorsement of the quality we have delivered, alongside our partners, and the clear demand from local downsizers for premium, boutique residences in this location,” Perilli said.&nbsp; 
&nbsp; 
“Most importantly, we’re proud to see the Alex &amp; Willow community beginning to take shape. As we move closer to completion, we’re looking forward to welcoming residents and seeing the project come to life.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6680 project_image_fid=338516] 
&nbsp; 
Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/nettletontribe">Nettleton Tribe</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/richards-stanisich">Richards Stanisich</a>, Alex &amp; Willow is a boutique collection of generously sized two- and three-bedroom residences in the heart of Crows Nest village.&nbsp;

Completion is slated for early 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=6680]

Alex & Willow, Crows Nest penthouse sells off the plan for $6.5 million

Fresh from launching the first stage of its Wollongong precinct, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/keira-place-wollongong-120-122-smith-street-wollongong-nsw-2500">Keira Place</a>, builder-developer Urban Property Group has unveiled plans for the next phase of the masterplanned community.

Now on public exhibition through the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority pathway is a State Significant Development Application for a further 657 homes on the prominent gateway site opposite Beaton Park.

The proposal comprises three buildings, including two build-to-sell towers rising 25 and 30 storeys, delivering 391 apartments, alongside a 12-storey co-living building with 266 residences, making it one of the largest co-living proposals currently planned in regional New South Wales.

Of the apartments proposed in the build-to-sell towers, the majority, 310, are two-bedroom dwellings. The balance comprises 44 one-bedroom apartments and 37 three-bedroom residences. Apartment sizes range from around 50 sqm for one-bedroom homes to approximately 90 sqm for three-bedroom apartments.

<img alt="Smith St" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="19347059-1612-41a0-9c74-b86a657237f8" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-10%20at%2010.02.18%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sWXnaCcA.cIC6N8YT1dg5pJ2e1V3Z6z7" />

The submission says the proposal has evolved significantly from its original Housing Delivery Authority application following extensive consultation with the State Design Review Panel and Wollongong City Council.

The final scheme has been designed to align with the emerging vision for the Flinders Street Precinct, an area identified by Council as a future high-density mixed-use neighbourhood capable of accommodating substantial housing growth close to transport, employment and community infrastructure.

According to the design report prepared by COX Architecture, the development aims to "deliver a built outcome consistent with the future character of the Wollongong CBD while responding to the site's unique constraints and opportunities."

"Our vision for the next phase of the site evolution in Wollongong is grounded in three design pillars that guide the design response: place, natural environment and celebration," COX said.

"Inspired by its surroundings and grounded in the stories of place on Wodi Wodi Country, the design proposal acknowledges the established character of its setting while creating a unique and timeless identity that sits harmoniously within it.

"The design proposal responds to its specific site conditions, acknowledging the vegetation, climate, wind conditions and solar access of the site."

The architecture responds directly to the site's position between Wollongong's urban core and its natural landscape setting.

COX identified views towards Mount Keira and the Illawarra Escarpment as defining features of the site, while the upper levels of the towers will also capture expansive views across the city and out to the Pacific Ocean.

The design team has positioned the tallest buildings closer to the rail corridor, where overshadowing impacts can be better managed while establishing a landmark built form on the northern approach into the city.

<img alt="Smith St" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="79580d5b-500c-4ebf-9629-797146a4a694" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-10%20at%209.51.59%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=WbTB1EKSG.KDfsfz0F3wp1QVa2oCMGR5" />

Urban Property Group secured the 11,000 sqm Smith Street site in 2022 and has since progressed plans for the broader Keira Place precinct.

Construction recently commenced on the first stage of Keira Place, which will deliver 150 apartments across two residential buildings, including 27 affordable housing apartments and 18 specialist disability accommodation dwellings, alongside activated ground-floor retail and commercial space.

Urban Co-CEO Patrick Elias said the commencement of construction marked a significant milestone for Wollongong and reflected the developer's long-term commitment to regional cities.

"Today's groundbreaking is about turning approvals into homes and moving quickly to deliver much-needed housing in Wollongong's city centre," Elias said.

"Keira Place will provide a diverse mix of homes close to jobs, transport and services, while setting a high benchmark for quality, durability and consumer protection."

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/groundbreaking-marks-start-of-construction-at-keira-place-in-wollongong-cbd">Groundbreaking marks start of construction at Keira Place in Wollongong CBD</a>

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

Urban Property Group unveils trio of towers for next stage of new Wollongong precinct, Keira Place

Housing Correction

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There are several possible risks facing Australia's housing markets: a change in sentiment leading people to stop buying homes, the crackdown on investor lending, rising interest rates, and a glut of new homes to be absorbed. 
I heard Tapas Strickland of NAB note that he just can't see a meaningful housing correction coming looking at the fundamentals, and on today's evidence he will be proven right.
A couple of dozen lenders have dropped their mortgage rates since July 1 to entice homebuyers back into the market, and even by the end of July this was clearly working. 
Not only have homebuyers not shunned the market, they are coming back in droves, with the number of owner-occupier commitments excluding refinancing surging 4.5 per cent higher in July, with the trend result rising to the highest level since the financial crisis stimulus. 
<div id="post-body-3188059144906675382" class="post-body entry-content">
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 <div>Loans for the purchase of established dwellings jumped 5 per cent in July, and average loan sizes are gently trending to new highs too. </div>
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<div>As a result, owner-occupier commitments rose to a record high in July 2017, helping to offset a 7-month decline in investor loans, with total monthly housing finance still tracking at around $33 billion. </div>
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<div>First homebuyer incentives are also back in play from July 2017 forth, and the number of first homebuyer loans immediately rose to the highest level in 44 months.</div>
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 <div>The number of first homebuyer loans in New South Wales jumped to the highest level since 2012, while in Victoria the figure hit the highest level since 2013, consistently reflected in rocketing auction results in markets such as Geelong. </div>
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<div>In fact, my state level analysis, not posted here, shows that homebuyers in Victoria are by far the most ebullient of all states and territories, with new loan activity in New South Wales also rising.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Finally, as for the glut of new stock, there was upbeat news here too, with the number of homebuyers financing new dwellings accelerating to the highest level in 38 years. </div>
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 <div>New home sales are trending down, suggesting that the rate of construction will fall over the next few years, but on this evidence homebuyers will gladly mop up the new stock as it's released to the market (on the flip side, taxes will slow buyers from offshore investors, while domestic investors are finding it harder to access credit). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>A lot of people seem frustrated by this, but the housing juggernaut does not conform to ideologies, and for now it continues to power on. </div>
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<h3 class="post-title entry-title"><a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2017/09/home-loans-back-in-favour"> </a></h3>
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.
<h3 class="post-title entry-title"><a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2017/09/home-loans-back-in-favour"></a></h3>
His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.
<h3 class="post-title entry-title"><a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2017/09/home-loans-back-in-favour"></a></h3>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Home loans back in favour: Pete Wargent

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The correction in Australian dwelling prices that has been running since late 2017 is showing clearer signs of moderating in early 2019.
The CoreLogic home value index, covering the eight major capital cities, fell 0.4% in May to be down 8.4%yr. After tracking a 10% annualised pace of decline between Nov and March, price slippage has been running at a more moderate 6.7% annual pace over the last two months.
While that is a clear improvement it is still well short of stabilisation.
Prices nationally are now 10.7% below their Sep 2017 peak. The current price adjustment has now been running for 20mths putting, eclipsing the much shallower 2010-11 correction.
More major capital cities recorded price declines in May. The moderation in price falls continues to be slightly more pronounced in the Sydney and Melbourne markets.
The annual pace of declines in these markets improved for the first time since early 2017 but is still tracking a solid pace, –10.7%yr in Sydney and –9.9%yr in Melbourne with cumulative declines of 14.9% and 11.8% respectively.
Performances across other markets continue to be more varied. Perth's longer running correction accelerated again, prices down –1%mth, –8.8%yr. Brisbane, which was stable through 2018, has continued to see price slippage in 2019, prices down –0.5%yr, –2.3%yr. Adelaide remains an isolated area of calm amid the sea of red, prices nudging 0.2% higher in the month to be up 0.4%yr, essentially stable.
Across the smaller markets: Hobart is coming off its boom sharply with a second month of price declines paring annual price growth back to 3.4%yr, well down on the double digit pace nine months ago. Canberra has been steadier, prices dipped 0.2%, annual growth holding just under 2.5%yr.
The mining-dominated Darwin market is mirroring the difficult conditions in Perth, its long-running correction also re-accelerating with a 1.6% decline in the month taking prices down 8.6%yr to their lowest level in over 12yrs.
The dwelling type detail continues to show units outperforming houses slightly in recent months although both segments are showing a similar moderation in the pace of price declines.
The breakdown by tier shows a more pronounced moderation in price declines across properties in the top tier, albeit with this group coming from a weaker starting point. In Sydney, the three tiers have been tracking closely over the last 3mths. Bottom tiers are outperforming in Melbourne and Brisbane, with prices in these segments close to stabilisation.
The moderation in price declines is consistent with the improved tone from auction markets in recent months, with a notable lift post-election, the result meaning changes to the tax treatment of investor housing are now off the table.
With interest rates set to move lower, some relaxation in regulatory guidelines for loan assessments likely and increased Federal assistance for first home buyers, prospects for an eventual stabilisation in prices are looking considerably better, boding well for an eventual stabilisation in prices.
MATTHEW HASSAN is a senior economist for Westpac
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Matthew_Hassan-HHWHptmrw4

Price adjustment hits 20 month mark but correction continues to slow: Westpac's Matthew Hassan

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EXPERT OBSERVER
As the property downturn draws to an end, there are important lessons for policy-makers, lenders and investors to be learned. 
Labor’s loss has eliminated the number one risk to the property market and this, combined with the high likelihood of interest rate cuts by the RBA this year, the introduction of the First Home Loan Deposit Scheme and APRA’s proposal to remove the 7% ‘stress test’ replacing it with a 2.5% buffer, will support the bottoming of the Sydney and Melbourne markets by the end of the year and then a gradual recovery. 
There are six key lessons to be learned from the downturn and how to mitigate them to avoid another property crash in the future.
<ol>
<li>Despite claims by some experts it had been on the verge of collapse, the market remained viable, despite price falls. And, with a “good arsenal of tools” by the policy-makers, there should be no crash. In September last year, some experts warned of collapse due to ballooning household debt, compounded by sliding prices in Sydney and Melbourne, that would escalate to falls of 40 to 45% in the next 12 months. Not only has it not happened - and would not even if the Labor had won the election - but more importantly, policy-makers have taken measures to boost demand. The First Home Buyers Scheme (that could also be a larger-scale first home buyers’ grant, if needed) was introduced prior to the election by the Coalition and was adopted a few hours later by Labor. In addition, the flow-on effect of lower property prices on household wealth, consumer spending and also on dwelling commencements and, consequently, lower GDP, increases the likelihood of interest rate cuts to ‘almost certain’. APRA’s credit restrictions to reduce investor demand had eased and it was proposing lenders scrap the 7% ‘stress test’ requirement on home loans replacing it with a buffer of 2.5% on top of the interest rates. The important thing to remember here is that in the future don’t expect total collapse of the housing market in a US GFC-style meltdown. It is extremely unlikely, and policy-makers take actions when required. It’s equally important that decisions should not be made under the assumption that very extreme scenarios will take place, for example, following the 60 Minutes story in September 2018 in which it was reported there could be a 40% drop in Australia's house prices … this had an impact on sentiment and confidence to some extent. 
</li>
<li>A more aggressive monetary policy is required by the RBA. The RBA should have cut interest rates already and should not have made statements declaring the next move being upwards when there were so many economic indicators and key risk indicators that should have been taken note of, such as the strong connection between dwelling prices, household wealth and spending. An example of this is the stronger than expected fall in dwelling commencements, as published by RiskWise in December 2018, alongside an extended period of time when inflation was consistency well below target and wage growth was poor. 
</li>
<li>Investors amplify credit and dwelling price cycles contributing to financial stability risks. Therefore, any major reduction in investor activity has an impact on the demand of both existing and new properties. It is unrealistic to expect an increase in dwelling commencements when investor activity is significantly reduced. This is a key lesson for any policy-maker who proposes a policy with a major impact on investor demand, and the proposed taxation changes by Labor are a prime example for that. 
</li>
<li>Off-the-plan units mainly in high-supply areas carry a high level of risk. Since mid-2017, RiskWise has been warning that many areas subject to unit oversupply carry high risk of low demand and price reductions. This risk is very relevant to construction lenders, developers and obviously buyers, largely investors,” he said. Prime examples include the Brisbane CBD where, even as early as June 2016 in Statistical Area Level 4 (SA4) Brisbane Inner-City, price growth was -1.8% with 17,417 units in the pipeline, an addition of 24.5% to the current stock. A recent <a href="https://www.afr.com/business/banking-and-finance/off-the-plan-apartments-bomb-for-investors-20190404-p51aw4" target="_blank">analysis</a> by BIS Oxford Economics also demonstrates that two out of three Melbourne apartments sold off-the-plan over the past eight years made no price gains or lost money upon resale, despite a property boom and record immigration.  
</li>
<li>It’s important to listen to mainstream economists and research houses which provide accurate and up-to-date predictions. This was particularly the case from the end of 2017 when it was obvious property prices would materially decrease. The only question then was ‘by how much exactly?’ This is a key lesson, mainly for lenders and investors, as the majority of the assets that were purchased in the past couple of years experienced material price reductions, and many of them with negative or very little equity. Obviously, in some cases poor credit decisions have been made and some investors will need a number of years to see their property value increasing to the original purchase price. Mainstream leading economists and research houses shared with the media the results of their analysis – the same results they provide to their clients, in most cases lenders and investment funds. They have no incentive to mislead their clients and talk the market up or down. Any major policies must be constantly reviewed and their impact reassessed according to recent developments in the housing market. Eg Labor’s proposed changes to negative gearing did not have a visible reassessment process from when it was suggested in 2016, despite major changes in the property market. Policy-makers should have a proper process of challenge and feedback from mainstream bodies that research the market, especially if that research is saying the implications could be adverse. 
</li>
<li>Affordable areas show more resilience than the top end of the market </li>
</ol>
This can be demonstrated using CoreLogic’s latest Quarterly Economic Review from February which showed despite a 7% fall across Melbourne for the last three months of 2018, the bottom end enjoyed a 0.5% increase.
Also, in the past 12 months houses in the lucrative areas of the Eastern Suburbs of Sydney have fallen by 10.9% and the Inner-East in Melbourne by 18.8%.
Investors or owner-occupiers with low equity have to reconsider purchasing a property at the top end of the market as they could suffer from high volatility in the short term.
For example, if you plan to refinance or sell and move to another property in three to five years expecting strong capital growth, this could be significantly impacted by major economic events.
However, the lower end is by far less volatile and generally less subject to such strong market movements.
DORON PELEG is CEO of RiskWise Property Research.
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Six key lessons from the recent property downturn: Doron Peleg

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The Australian housing market will continue its downward correction on a national basis through 2018 and most of 2019, according to the CoreLogic-Moody’s Analytics Australian Home Value Index Forecast.
They see trends that will show a degree of diversity at the city and state levels. 
Sydney values, which Moodys predict will fall 5.1 percent this year, will only rise 0.6 percent in 2019.
National values are forecast to fall by 1.6% year on year in 2018, following a 9.5% gain in 2017.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/9/17/house-values.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
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In the rest of New South Wales outside of Sydney, demand has increased as areas show better affordability.
The Central Coast, which has benefitted from Sydney's soaring house prices, is forecast to escape the correction. 
Moody's sees a 3.6 percent rise in 2018 and eight percent in 2019.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/9/17/softer%20housing.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/9/17/softer%20housing.jpg" alt="">
The growth in house values in Melbourne is forecast to decelerate sharply - after a 12.5% rise in 2017 - to 0.3% in 2018, on the back of declines in inner Melbourne areas. 
Recovery is elusive in the near-term, with Melbourne house values forecast to fall 0.2% in 2019.
House values across Brisbane are forecast to see a mild 1.5% gain in 2018, with strength in West Brisbane and Inner Brisbane offsetting declines in South Brisbane. 
Despite stabilising commodity prices, house values in Perth – whose economy is very much tied to the mining industry -- will likely decline by 1.9% in 2018, followed by a further 0.5% retreat in 2019. However, a slow recovery is likely in 2020 as the local economy improves thanks to population growth.
Meanwhile Adelaide’s housing market will have a stable run, with values forecast to rise 1.5% in 2018, after a 4.9% gain in 2017. Hobart’s housing market is likely at the end of its bull run. 
While values are forecast to rise 11.3% in 2018, they will fall 0.3% in 2019. 
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Sydney house values to grow 0.6% in 2019: CoreLogic-Moody’s Analytics Australian Home Value Index Forecast

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The ARCO fund manager George Colman is warning of a "slow-motion property market crash" as credit gets harder to secure.
"Broadly speaking, we think that the game has changed in terms of consumer behaviour," he told The Australian Financial Review.
"Bank credit is creating a steep change."
Property borrowers moving from interest-only to the more expensive fixed-rate mortgages was another source of market stress, Colman suggests.
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Colman believes the economy now suffers from declining breadth after a years-long narrowing of focus on housing and related sectors.
"We might limp along," he says.
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Arco was formed in 2008 at the height of the global financial crisis by Mr Colman and Peter Whiting and the Melbourne-based investment management firm had $147 million of assets under management in its long-short Absolute Trust at the end of June.
The fund returned 6.5 per cent over the 2018 financial year.
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