<section data-scroll-anchor="false" data-testid="conversation-turn-48" data-turn="assistant" data-turn-id="request-WEB:55d7c6ac-8e6d-4881-ad49-0ed9bf66d1cc-23" dir="auto">
Melbourne’s apartment market entered 2026 with renewed momentum, but the recovery is uneven, policy-driven, and increasingly shaped by constrained supply.

According to the RPM Apartments &amp; Townhomes Market Report (April 2026), apartments have begun to outperform detached housing on key metrics,yet that performance is occurring against a backdrop of falling approvals and a tightening development pipeline.

At the end of 2025, Melbourne unit values reached a three-year high of $656,500, recording quarterly growth of two per cent. That figure edged ahead of the 1.8 per cent growth recorded in the house market over the same period, marking a notable shift in relative performance. While modest in absolute terms, the outperformance is significant given the sustained dominance of houses through much of the previous cycle.

This shift has been driven in large part by policy. The federal government’s expanded five per cent Deposit Scheme has had a disproportionate impact on apartment demand, particularly in Melbourne where the $950,000 price cap captures a large share of medium- and high-density stock.

As RPM notes, the scheme “heavily favours medium and high-density dwellings,” effectively accelerating demand in the apartment sector.

The impact is most visible in buyer activity. Victoria recorded more than 43,000 new housing loans in Q4 2025, the highest quarterly volume since mid-2022 and one of the strongest results in over a decade. This lift was broad-based across all buyer types, with first home buyers, owner-occupiers and investors all returning to the market with greater confidence.

This surge in demand has flowed directly into apartment pricing, particularly in Melbourne’s middle and outer rings. Middle-ring unit values reached approximately $757,500, a four-year high, while outer-ring units climbed to a record $650,000. Quarterly growth of 2.9 per cent and 2.5 per cent respectively significantly outpaced both the inner ring (0.8 per cent) and the broader house market.

&nbsp;

<img alt="RPM" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="4628dde5-ad63-4b03-b18e-77d0f750e2aa" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-04-24%20at%209.23.32%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=ig6mqc7Oz7UaszRuzULrGtLPUxGf4NJC" />

&nbsp;

The divergence between apartments and houses is also being shaped by affordability. Detached housing remains out of reach for many buyers, pushing demand toward apartments as a more accessible entry point into well-located suburbs. This is particularly evident among first home buyers and downsizers, both of whom are increasingly prioritising location, amenity and lifestyle over land size.

At the same time, population growth continues to underpin demand. Victoria added more than 122,000 residents in the year to Q3 2025, with Melbourne attracting both overseas migrants and interstate movers, partly due to its relative affordability compared to other capitals.

&nbsp;

<img alt="Population" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="49e10567-a8b3-47c3-afbd-290f0bb62c49" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-04-24%20at%209.22.25%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=.2Drmko4TPh02X55JdF3mIC1EcG0ZfGl" />

However, the most critical factor shaping the apartment market is not demand, it is supply.

Apartment approvals across Greater Melbourne have fallen sharply, signalling a constrained pipeline of future stock. In Q4 2025, just 2,339 apartments were approved, down 20 per cent on the previous quarter and 47 per cent lower than the same period a year earlier. On an annual basis, 11,066 apartment approvals were recorded, an improvement on the previous year, but still well below medium- and long-term averages.

&nbsp;

<img alt="Apartment approvals" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="12f2e7bc-fe01-40c0-80b5-9e829b279d98" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-04-24%20at%209.21.56%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=5mnIXkXGoDgIJdAFhA0alm0cSKzEytqZ" />

This decline reflects a broader contraction cycle that has been underway since 2020. As RPM notes, “apartment approvals appear to be sliding back into a downward trend,” with developers increasingly focused on launching and completing existing projects rather than initiating new ones.

The reasons are well understood. Construction costs have risen more than 20 per cent since 2021, driven largely by labour shortages and material price escalation. At the same time, financing conditions have tightened, with lenders requiring higher contingencies and taking a more cautious approach to risk. Combined with recent interest rate rises, these factors have made feasibility more challenging, particularly for higher-density projects.

This dynamic is creating a disconnect in the market. Demand for apartments—particularly at the more affordable end—is strengthening, while the pipeline of new supply is weakening. In the short term, this may limit the number of new projects coming to market. Over the medium term, however, it is likely to support price resilience and potentially further outperformance relative to houses.

There are some signs of policy-driven supply response. The introduction of Victoria’s Mid-Rise Code, which streamlines approvals for four- to six-storey developments, is expected to improve delivery in well-serviced middle-ring locations. However, this is unlikely to materially offset the broader decline in apartment approvals in the near term.

Despite the positive momentum at the end of 2025, the outlook for 2026 has become more complex. Two interest rate rises early in the year have already impacted consumer confidence, while broader cost pressures, particularly energy and fuel, are feeding through to construction and development costs.

“Victoria’s built form market ended 2025 on a high, but early 2026 rate rises quickly reversed the momentum,” RPM notes.

The implication is that while apartments are currently outperforming houses, the trajectory of that outperformance will depend on how these competing forces evolve. Policy support and affordability are clearly working in favour of apartments, but constrained supply and rising costs are likely to shape the pace and nature of future growth.

What is increasingly clear is that apartments are playing a more central role in Melbourne’s housing market. As population growth continues and affordability pressures intensify, higher-density housing is becoming not just an alternative to detached homes, but a primary solution to the city’s housing needs.
</section>

Joel Robinson

Units lead Melbourne price growth as apartments outperform houses: RPM

Brunswick is set for some of its largest apartments ever delivered with the upcoming new development Frith &amp; Howarth, where the apartments are around 20 per cent larger than what has come before it in the sought-after suburb.

Developer Young Group focused its design on Frith &amp; Howarth around size and scale, but within a boutique building, to create a mini neighbourhood within the mid-rise development. There are just 24 apartments in the mid-rise building on Victoria Street, a short walk to Brunswick Station and the cafe and dining strip along Sydney Road.

“We spent hours comparing what’s currently on the market so we could offer genuine points of difference,” Young Group says, pointing to room sizing, storage, and functional planning as key drivers behind the design.

All of the two-bedroom apartments in the building have been snapped up, with just the large three- and four-bedroom apartments, with the biggest floorplans and best outlooks, remaining.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134317 project_image_fid=354139]

Apartments open directly into open-plan living zones where full-height glazing draws light deep into the apartment. Sliding doors extend the space outward to terraces, many oriented toward the adjacent park or back toward the city skyline.

Kitchens sit within this central space, anchored by sculptural island benches that reference the building’s faceted exterior language. Storage is integrated across multiple layers, overhead cabinetry, concealed joinery, and, in larger configurations, dedicated sculleries or butler’s pantries.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134317 project_image_fid=354137]

The penthouse is the largest ever offered in Brunswick. The penthouse measures nearly 400 sqm all-up, with 242 sqm of internal space complimented by a further 149 sqm of terraces.

It spans the whole top floor and has four bedrooms, four bathrooms, and parking for four cars.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134317 project_image_fid=354133]

Low maintenance resident amenity has been created in the form of a landscaped rooftop, complete with&nbsp;vegetable plots, outdoor cooking areas, and aflresco dining spaces, designed as a place for neighbours to gather outside of their homes.

“To enable connection with neighbours, generous rooftop gardens with communal spaces and outdoor cooking areas offer a chance to develop a sense of community,” says John Patrick, Principal of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/john-patrick-landscape-architects">John Patrick Landscape Architects</a>.&nbsp;

“Private open spaces with a selection of native and exotic plantings and gorgeous city views on the rooftop create a high-end aesthetic, with a low maintenance lifestyle. The perfect balance, so that residents can enjoy a serene living space.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134317 project_image_fid=354134]

Sustainability is embedded at both the building and apartment level. <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/frith-howarth-288-290-victoria-street-brunswick-vic-3056">Frith &amp; Howarth</a> is one of only a small number of all-electric residential developments in Brunswick, supported by solar infrastructure, EV-ready parking, and high-performance glazing. These measures sit alongside less visible systems such as rainwater reuse and high-grade insulation, reducing long-term operational costs while maintaining consistent internal conditions.

Positioned within walking distance of Brunswick Station, Route 96 trams, and established retail along Sydney Road and Barkly Square, the development balances access to transport with proximity to open space, a combination that has become increasingly difficult to secure in inner-city sites.

“These exquisite homes are nestled in a culturally diverse neighbourhood, with parklands and nature right on your doorstep,” says Young Group.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134317]

Frith & Howarth to deliver Brunswick’s largest apartments

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/prince-parade-by-mirvac-brunswick-701-park-street-brunswick-vic-3056">Prince &amp; Parade</a> in Brunswick is entering its final stages of construction, with the removal of the project’s last tower crane and the unveiling of the building’s full façade marking a significant milestone ahead of completion this coming spring.

The Park Street development, designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bates-smart">Bates Smart</a>&nbsp;and Mirvac Design with landscaping by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/jack-merlo">Jack Merlo</a>, is now largely structurally complete, with internal works progressing across the 169-apartment project opposite Princes Park.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/mirvac-construction">Mirvac Construction</a> Project Manager Sam Payne said the latest update reflects a transition from structure to refinement.

“Since our last update, all façade panels have been installed and the scaffolding and gantry has come down, unveiling the building in its full form for the very first time,” Payne said.

“A significant milestone was reached this month with the removal of our final tower crane, signalling the completion of major structural works and a pivotal step forward in the building’s transformation.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4802 project_image_fid=366856]

Apartments are now well advanced internally, with joinery completed to level eight and tiling to level six, alongside the delivery of a prototype apartment used to set the benchmark for the remaining residences.

This next phase coincides with the release of a completed furnished residence, styled by MCM House, and the introduction of private buyer tours, giving purchasers a clearer understanding of the finished product ahead of settlement.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/prince-parade-by-mirvac-brunswick-701-park-street-brunswick-vic-3056">Prince &amp; Parade</a> will comprise 169 one to four-bedroom apartments, with completion targeted for early spring. Interiors focus on natural materials and muted tones with two design schemes, while kitchens and bathrooms adopt a restrained palette anchored by stone, timber and textured finishes.

Bates Smart Director Jeffery Copolov said the project reflects a shared design direction centred on liveability and sustainability.

“Blending Mirvac and Bates Smart’s focus on wellness and sustainability, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/prince-parade-by-mirvac-brunswick-701-park-street-brunswick-vic-3056">Prince &amp; Parade</a> offers a new kind of conscious, elevated living in Melbourne’s inner north,” Copolov said.

<a href="https://www.urban.com.au/new-apartments/prince-parade-by-mirvac-brunswick-701-park-street-brunswick-vic-3056">Prince &amp; Parade</a> presents Mirvac's third parkside collaboration with&nbsp;<a href="https://www.urban.com.au/architects/bates-smart">Bates Smart</a>&nbsp;in Victoria.&nbsp;Their previous collaborations delivered two of the city’s landmark apartment buildings: The Melburnian opposite Kings Domain and The Eastbourne on Fitzroy Gardens.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4802 project_image_fid=366857]

A key focus of the development is its landscape-led amenity offering. The central courtyard, spanning around 600 sqm, will feature established trees and planting grown off-site, alongside communal lawns and seating areas designed for everyday use.

Development Manager James Gardner said the outdoor spaces are central to the project’s lifestyle positioning.

“<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/prince-parade-by-mirvac-brunswick-701-park-street-brunswick-vic-3056">Prince &amp; Parade</a> isn’t just a home, it’s a complete lifestyle offering, and the resident amenity is just one example of the elevated living experience the soon-to-be-complete building will be known for,” Gardner said.

The courtyard connects to a series of shared indoor and outdoor spaces, including a residents’ lounge, dining room, library and secondary west-facing garden area, designed as extensions of the apartments themselves.

Located directly opposite Princes Park and around four kilometres from the CBD, the development places residents within one of Melbourne’s most established inner-north precincts, with access to open space, transport and the retail and hospitality offerings of Brunswick and Carlton.

With façade works complete and landscaping and final finishes now underway, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/prince-parade-by-mirvac-brunswick-701-park-street-brunswick-vic-3056">Prince &amp; Parade</a> is moving into its most active construction phase, with permanent services and external works to be finalised in the coming months ahead of completion in spring.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=4802]

Mirvac’s latest landmark, Prince & Parade Brunswick, enters final construction phase

Boutique Perth developer ADC has unveiled its latest project.

The developer, which focuses on bringing apartments to some of Perth's most premium inner-city and riverside suburbs, has launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/mos-lane-mosman-park-46-manning-street-mosman-park-wa-6012">Mos Lane</a>, 68 luxury apartments and townhouses in the heart of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mosman-park-wa-6012">Mosman Park</a>.

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Alongside the one-, two-, three- and four-bedroom apartments, the development will also include five two-level townhomes and two luxe penthouses. ADC is also introducing a significant retail offering for residents through Mos Lane Village, which will feature a wellness studio, fish and chips shop, barber, and florist, adding a layer of amenity not typically found in the predominantly residential Mosman Park area.

Construction has already commenced on the project, which sits just a short walk from the Swan River, Mosman Park Bowls Club, and Mosman Park Golf Course.

House Agency Directors Tom House and Lachlan McDonald say they are fielding the majority of buyer interest from local downsizers, as well as buyers with a long-standing affinity for Mosman Park.
</section>

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364591]

Mos Lane will comprise two buildings; Samson House and Manning House, which have been designed by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/nelson-koo">Nelson + Koo</a>, an emerging design consultancy specialising in the masterplanning and design of mixed use places and spaces.

The two buildings adopt distinct architectural responses to their surroundings. Manning House references the strong roof forms of nearby homes, with floorplates oriented to maximise light and long-range views, while Samson House is organised around a central atrium designed to bring daylight deep into the building and create a greater sense of openness.

At ground level, the inclusion of five townhomes introduces a typology more commonly associated with Mosman Park’s established streets, each with private courtyards and direct frontage, offering a transition between traditional housing and apartment living.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364103]

Interiors have been led by Melbourne-based Hecker Guthrie, with an emphasis on practical, long-term liveability. Residences incorporate sculpted joinery, generous storage and flexible multi-purpose rooms that can adapt to changing household needs, whether for working from home, guest accommodation or additional living space.

Material selections draw on a restrained palette of textured stone, timber and neutral tones, with options for lighter or darker schemes. Detailing such as fluted glass, full-height joinery and integrated appliances is intended to balance functionality with a more refined residential finish.

Outdoor spaces are a consistent feature across the development, with balconies and terraces designed for dining and entertaining, and larger apartments incorporating outdoor kitchens. Orientation has been considered to allow residents to choose between morning or afternoon sun, while mature street trees and landscaped communal areas contribute to a softer streetscape.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364107]

Shared amenities are positioned to support both day-to-day convenience and occasional use. These include a private dining room with a caterer’s kitchen, alfresco entertaining areas, and a bookable guest suite for visiting friends and family. Additional practical features such as a resident workshop, storage facilities, car and pet wash areas, and concierge-style services for cleaning and dry-cleaning collection reflect a focus on usability.

Positioned between the Swan River and Cottesloe Beach, and within reach of schools such as Iona Presentation College and St Hilda’s Anglican School, the development is aimed at a broad buyer group, from downsizers seeking a lower-maintenance alternative to larger homes, through to local residents looking to remain in the area in a different housing format.

Mos Lane represents one of the more significant additions to Mosman Park’s limited pipeline, combining new housing supply with a village-style retail centre in a suburb where opportunities for large-scale redevelopment are relatively constrained.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=148957]

Living village precinct set for Mosman Park as ADC launches Mos Lane

An entity linked to I&amp;D Group Founder Ivan Filipović has filed plans for a new residential development at 188–202 Swan Street in Cremorne, targeting a prominent site within the tightly held Swan Street activity corridor.

The proposal seeks to redevelop the consolidated Swan Street landholding into a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/188-202-swan-street-cremorne-vic-3121">high-density mixed-use project</a>, replacing a series of existing commercial buildings with a significantly scaled residential outcome. The planning submission positions the development as a response to increasing demand for housing in well-connected inner-urban locations, particularly within established activity centres.

Plans outline the construction of a 14-storey building delivering 165 apartments above a four-level basement, alongside a ground-floor retail and commercial offering designed to activate the streetscape. A key feature of the scheme is a new north–south pedestrian link connecting Swan Street to Railway Place, intended to “enhance permeability and provide an active, publicly accessible connection through the site.”

<img alt="First Look: Plans lodged for Ivan Filipović-linked Cremorne apartment project on Swan Street" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7332a8f8-dd2b-483d-b86e-320658838c84" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/cremorne.png?VersionId=cXm8vAaRdHh.LpYVbecrRkjckgu9mtAF" />

The development will retain part of the existing built form at 198–200 Swan Street, while the remainder of the site will be cleared to accommodate the new structure. Basement levels will provide 196 car spaces and 113 bicycle spaces, with vehicle access from Railway Place. Communal amenity is distributed across the building, including a shared outdoor area on Level 1 and a rooftop terrace for residents.

Ground level uses include retail tenancies fronting Swan Street and the pedestrian link, a residential lobby, and a flexible commercial space positioned to support community-oriented uses. The planning report notes this space “could be offered as a flexible space within the development for community groups,” supporting short-term or longer-term occupancy arrangements.

<img alt="First Look: Plans lodged for Ivan Filipović-linked Cremorne apartment project on Swan Street" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="8208bf7b-cc67-485d-ad0f-1d73a74c907f" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/cremorne%20lane.png?VersionId=69ctjC0txXv0zCHy7qQUpJyGwvPAT7gw" />

The site sits within the Swan Street Major Activity Centre, surrounded by a mix of retail, hospitality, and emerging residential development, and directly opposite tram services along Swan Street. East Richmond Station is located to the south, providing strong rail connectivity, while the broader Cremorne precinct continues to evolve as a mixed-use hub.

I&amp;D Group, founded by Ivan Filipović, is regarded as one of Victoria’s largest formwork contractors, partnering with major construction firms across large-scale public and private developments. The Swan Street proposal signals a move into development-backed opportunities tied to strategic inner-city sites.

First Look: Plans lodged for Cremorne apartment project on Swan Street

Housing Collapse

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The recent release of median housing sale prices across Australia by the Domain Group demonstrates different results for Eastern seaboard cities compared to the west and for apartments compared to houses.
The Domain data over the last year shows a collapse in Sydney house median prices of 9.9 percent compared to a median apartment reduction of 5.8 percent.
Apartments are now $350,000 cheaper than the median house and this is making apartments more affordable and therefore more attractive to more people in the market.
The interesting result from the Domain data is that Australia has two quite different profiles. The eastern seaboard cities are clearly having major drops in both housing and apartment median prices but Adelaide is amazingly seeing median house and apartment prices going up not down.
The big message for Sydney from the Domain data is that apartments have lost value at half the rate of houses. This seems to be driven by the fact that apartments are generally around $350,000 cheaper on average than a house. Clearly many Sydney families and couples are still looking to buy an apartment rather than a house due to its affordability.
Even during a time of major contraction in the housing markets the swing to apartment living is tracking well.
The Urban Taskforce is concerned that the large drop in the value of houses and apartments has been partly driven by the pre-election negative attitude to so called over development by politicians harnessing votes by championing a stop to growth.
Sydney is still growing and the housing industry needs a steady supply process to maintain jobs rather than a major drop partly driven by scaremongering at election time.
CHRIS JOHNSON is the Urban Taskforce CEO
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cjohnson-8xfqfuuCSq

Domain housing sales collapse applies more to houses than apartments: Chris Johnson

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GUEST OBSERVATION
This is an email McGrath sent to his estate agents on Tuesday.
There was a piece on 60 Minutes that was particularly misleading in my opinion and unsurprisingly melodramatic in its depiction of a property market that could shortly spiral out of control.  It’s simply not the case.
In fact, barring any macro-economic disaster like we saw when the GFC took us all by surprise, I believe the property market has seen most of the value declines it is going to see this cycle (in many markets there has been a 5% to 10% decline in values this year and I think we may see another 5% to 7% in some areas) and at the end of that there will either be a steady state period of market stability or even a small positive rebound back by a few percent.  I say this having now experienced five property cycles in my 35 years real estate career and each time, often at around this stage of the cycle, hearing the same old headline grabbing commentary by one of two so-called experts saying something like “the Australian property market is in a bubble and when it bursts will fall by 40% etc.!” Which of course has never happened and unless we see a total financial catastrophe engulf the entire world is never going to happen.  Two questions that I get asked when I have this discussion.  “Why then do they say this and why do you think they are they wrong?” So the first one is the easiest one. Generally speaking the sponsors of such theories are seeking self-promotion.  They put their views forward in some form of press release aimed to grab media attention (the 60 Minutes story was called 'Bricks and Slaughter!') and inevitably are looking to promote a book or attract eyeballs to their website.  Steve Keen predicted a 40% drop in 2010, Johnathan Tepper predicted a 30% to 50% drop in 2016. Of course, none have even been close to accurate.  In fact, they have been ridiculously inaccurate on every occasion. And why are they going to be wrong again this time?  Well firstly you would have to interrogate what would have to happen for their theory would have any validity whatsoever. Firstly, two out of three Australians own their own home or are living in a home with the owner and one in three are in a rented place. Of the 66% who own their home, half of these homes are fully paid off with no loan whatsoever. Just park that fact for the moment but it should make you feel that property is on a very solid footing. Next let’s look at the generational change occurring – where many Baby Boomers (aged 60 to 75 approximately) are assisting their children secure a first home and of course as the life cycle turns, many will also be leaving their often-considerable assets to their kids.  And in the main most Australians are wealthier than ever before through their property, other assets or indeed inheritance. Statistically, the average Australian is worth around $395,000 which is at record highs. Next, let’s look at the underlying factors that we are experiencing today that may affect property, negatively or positively. We are enjoying a robust economy, low levels of unemployment, record low interest rates and significant overseas immigration and investment. None of these are likely to change significantly into the future. After all, we are the lucky country. So, when you combine the strong levels of home ownership with the robust economic and social markers it’s easy to see why the negative pundits have consistently got it wrong. Australian real estate is one of the best investments on the planet and that isn’t changing. Now I do have concern with housing affordability however. Despite the average Australian being technically wealthier than ever before there is no doubt that the ability for many Australians to buy their own property and in many instances even rent their own property is challenging. And this situation needs to be addresses urgently by both the Governments (Federal and State) as well as the private sector. What has been and will continue to be most Australians’ best financial freedom strategy, residential property, does have another side which must be addressed. Every Australian should have a path to securing shelter for themselves and their family and this issue will need strong collaboration by both private and public sectors to ensure we achieve this.  And at McGrath we are in a great position to assist and influence positive outcomes in this space. And we will.
John McGrath is the founder of McGrath Estate Agents.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

60 Minutes property segment was misleading and melodramatic: John McGrath

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Martin North says 60 Minutes took the worst case from his four scenarios as the basis of the alarming segment which went to air last night on Channel 9.
"It is not my central scenario, rated only a 20 percent chance, as I made clear when interviewed," he said noting this caveat did not make it to the final cut.
North suggested a fall of 45 percent in home prices would be over three years or so, and require the US financial markets to react to rising US Fed rates.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/9/17/north-forecast.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/9/17/north-forecast.jpg" alt="">
"This creates a GFC 2.0." North, a finance sector analyst and principal Digital Finance Analytics, suggested.
The 60 Minutes reporter Tom Steinfort advised "several of the experts we interviewed for this story estimate it could be as much as 40 percent in Melbourne and Sydney, while even the most optimistic property analysts concede there will be a drop of at least 10-15 percent."
Steinfort says he's been spooked by the downturn, holding off his desired property purchase with fiancee Claudia Jukic.
His 60 Minutes report kicked off with a serious inaccuracy.
"For as long as most of us care to remember, or perhaps only as long as we want to remember, property prices in Australia have only gone in one direction, at least in our big cities," Steinfort claimed.
CoreLogic's Cameron Kusher recently wrote <a href="/expert-insights/buying/2018-housing-declines-hit-melbournes-inner-east-and-sydneys-hills-district-hardest-corelogic">a detailed research analysis tracking the current downturn</a> with three downturns since 2003.
North said the figures used in the program did not reflect his “central scenario” and that Channel Nine “chose not to cover” the more likely alternatives.
“My best call would be [property value falls] in the region of 15-20 per cent from top, over two to three years,” he said.
You can read North's full analysis <a href="http://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/updated-finance-and-property-scenarios-summary-findings/" target="_blank">here</a>. 
 
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

45 percent housing price collapse was least likely scenario: Martin North's 60 Minutes postscript

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<div>
Australia's housing is among the four riskiest markets in the world, according to Oxford Economics.
It has a strong prospect of falling prices posing a threat to economic activity, the research paper noted
The housing market dangers were "especially acute" in Sweden, Australia, Canada and Hong Kong, according to Oxford.
Weighing up a range of risk factors, including housing valuations compared to long-term averages, it noted all four valuations were very elevated.
It noted there has been a lengthy housing boom, debt levels were high and there was a significant share of floating rate debt, Oxford's lead economist Adam Slater wrote in a research note.
The risks were relatively limited in key markets including the US, Germany, France, China and Japan.
</div>
<div>
Overall edian OECD house price valuations are below the 2006-07 peak but are higher for the risky markets, according to Oxford.
<div id="article-inline-ad">"Historical experience suggests that high valuations – of 125 per cent or more of the long-term average – point to a 60 per cent chance of prices falling over the next five years," Mr Slater wrote.</div>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"This matters because house prices can have a big impact on economic activity, even if the link may have loosened in the G7 in recent years.</div>
<div>
"Looking across a range of housing risk indicators, property market dangers look concentrated in a number of smaller advanced economies and are less severe for the largest economies."
On a valuation index where the long-term average is 100, Australian housing is at 160, while Sweden is at 165, Canada at 173 and Hong Kong at 203.
</div>
<div>Slater wrote rising rates are not strictly necessary for prices to start falling (i.e. Sweden) and in the context of high valuations and debt, even modest increases (i.e. Canada and Hong Kong) "could be a problem."</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Oxford's assessment suggest Australian house prices have another risk factor, with an 82 per cent share of its mortgages held on floating rates.</div>
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Australia's housing among the four riskiest markets in the world, Oxford Economics

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Ray White agents across Australasia achieved $3.4 billion in sales during August, which was the same tally as July.
However it was down on last August.
The last month of winter in 2017 saw the headline sales figure for Australia and New Zealand come at $3.67 billion, which was up nine percent compared to 2016.
At the time it was noted August 2017 "had produced a better result than many might have expected."
This week Brian White noted "while well below the result last year, it supports our view that the market may well have now adjusted."
Brian White, chairman of real estate agency Ray White, said the majority of the market correction had already happened.
“There has been an adjustment and I believe that much of that adjustment has been made,” Mr White said.
“The speed of the growth in Sydney and Melbourne was unsustainable.
"We are experiencing a healthier market.”
Markets outside Sydney and Melbourne had been resilient. 
“Only an explosion in interest rates would pull the market down significantly,” he said.
State based figures were not available for August 2018.
But in August 2017 New South Wales sales had lifted 18 per cent year on year to $1.259 billion. Sales volume in Victoria jumped 30 per cent to $647 million.
In August 2017 Queensland’s sales came in at $696 million, just $2 million shy of the same time in 2016. Tasmania booked $10 million, while Western Australia reported $84 million and South Australian sales came in at $117 million.  Its New Zealand network reported $629 million in August 2017, down 13 per cent on the same period in 2016.
 
 
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Ray White see August 2018 sales dip

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House price falls in Sydney and Melbourne "will get worse before they get better", Deloitte Access Economics says.
The increasingly higher cost and lower availability of credit will generate a "mini-credit crunch."
"The nation's immigration intake will be cut – perhaps severely – thereby undercutting many of the 'most likely' forecasts underpinning the growth of domestic markets," the report says.
There would also be a "fear-of-fear-itself" momentum, the report adds.
</div>
<div class="cq-article-content-media section">"Lending is down, it's amidst its longest dry spell since the global financial crisis, and investor loans have dropped to a six-year low," the Deloitte report, reported in The Australian Financial Review, says.</div>
<div class="cq-article-content-media section"> </div>
<div class="cq-article-content-media section">"That says housing price falls – now infecting Melbourne – will get worse before they get better," said Deloitte adding they still expect a pretty benign construction cycle.</div>
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"That benign nature owes much to what we don't see in the next couple of years.
"We don't see China falling over and Australian unemployment jumping. And we don't see global and local interest rates rising fast.
"That still sees the current downswing bottoming out in late 2019 but, thanks to continuing population gains, bottoming at levels that are solid compared with the depths plumbed in past cycles."
Deloitte’s latest Business Outlook report projects that state and federal budgets will be hit hard by falling house prices and commodity prices.
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NSW will bear the brunt of the housing downturn because it has had the biggest rise in house prices among capital cities.
Expensive homes will struggle to sell but there will be "less damage at the lower end", which benefits from first home buyer concessions, the report says.
“House prices are essentially a function of how much people can borrow,” Deloitte economists led by Chris Richardson wrote in their 155-page quarterly report released today.
“Big banks are now running scared,” it suggests.
“Their sudden surge of caution means borrowers with the same characteristics would now get a smaller loan than they would have 18 months ago.”
They predict the current house price falls in Australia will “keep on keeping on”.
 
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House price falls in Sydney and Melbourne "will get worse before they get better"

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<div>GUEST OBSERVER</div>
<div>
 Australia has roughly “six weeks” to prevent a housing market collapse caused by the banks’ crackdown on foreign investment, a US-based security think tank has warned, according to a News Limited press report.   Quite clearly, you can tell from the website of the think tank, the International Strategic Studies Association, are not exactly experts in the field of Australian housing.   As I tweeted out yesterday, if we are truly six weeks away from a national housing crash, why are most leading indicators such as auction clearance rates and total real estate listings suggesting otherwise?   And surely we would also be already recording a significant rise in non-performing loans? The chart below shows that’s clearly not the case. Such loans, in fact, remain at low levels. <a href="/images/2016/09/15/e7a43fa6-d686-4b6d-b16d-d1e7f2464075.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
</div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/09/15/e7a43fa6-d686-4b6d-b16d-d1e7f2464075.png" alt="">   We pretty much have had from the time the national market started to rally in late 2012, a pile of market bears declaring the imminent crash of the Australian housing market. They are, what I call, the boys who cried wolf. And one thing they all have in their favor is a media circus who will give them all a front page and reporters who rarely check their credentials, qualifications or their previous track records, which too often leave little to be desired.   I guess, in the above story at least, News Limited, who had the 'exclusive', asked for a counter view. I am also pleased to say one very major television network opted out of taking the ‘story’ any further when they contacted the SQM Research office for its view.     More than this, I am convinced there is an industry of bear spruikers who earn a living preaching the end of the financial world, and for that matter, the demise of Australian housing. Take this example from Harry Dent -   a very public figure who has repeatedly made trips to Australia preaching the end of our housing market.  No wonder he enjoys coming out here.  You see, if you want to hire out Harry for a speaking engagement, the cost will be US$20,000 to US$40,000. Not bad for a day’s pay!   I’m sure if I were to dig deeper into a number of these very public bears, we would most certainly uncover a prosperous industry. That is, so-called experts making big dollars out of preaching doom.   Now, I have always said that I have no problem with those voicing the risks in the Australian housing market. There are indeed many risks, particularly those associated with the ever-rising level of household debt to GDP and what that would mean if our country just returned to ‘normal’ cash rate settings. That would indeed likely trigger a real rise in bad loans.  </div>
<div> </div>
<div>These risks need to be pointed out to all participants. That, along with particular risks within the housing market, such as a clear oversupply of Brisbane CBD apartments, as the elevated vacancy rate highlights.   And for that matter the ongoing collapse of the Perth rental market, particularly in the Perth CBD itself, where the vacancy rate is over 8 per cent.   But it’s when I see headline-grabbing stories like the one above, with no follow up investigation, that I feel the public are been taken for a ride by sections of the media and by 'experts' out to grab a headline and maybe a quick buck.   Sorry to say, the great Australian housing crash predicted by Harry Dent and other so-called experts in 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017 is far from a certainty.   There are many other ways our overvalued housing market may return to some sort of sense of fair value, which could include the very ‘boring’ scenario of underperformance for a very long time.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Louis Christopher is managing director, SQM Research and can be contacted <a href="https://sqmresearch.com.au" target="_blank">here</a>.</div>
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