&nbsp;

A local Australian has spent a Lower North Shore record $15.1 million at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/elevate-hume-place-crows-nest-25-hume-street-crows-nest-nsw-2065">Elevate Hume Place</a>, the new TOD above the recently opened Crows Nest Metro Station.

The buyer amalgamated a penthouse and sub-penthouse to create the triplex apartment that will have five bedrooms, five bathrooms, a private rooftop pool, expansive terrace, and panoramic views of Sydney Harbour and skyline. The building is being created by burgeoning developer Third.i, alongside joint venture partner Phoenix Property Investors.

The buyer was drawn to Elevate’s unrivalled connectivity, situated directly above the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/crows-nest-nsw-2065">Crows Nest</a> Metro Station, and the vibrant lifestyle precinct that surrounds it. The Metro connects to the CBD in just seven minutes, and Chatswood in four.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=142550 project_image_fid=309367]

Designed by internationally acclaimed architects <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/woods-bagot">Woods Bagot</a>, Elevate draws inspiration from the ancient blue gum forests native to the area. The building is a Net Zero development, created in consultation with Indigenous communities and exceeding sustainability benchmarks. Interiors feature chevron-engineered timber flooring, natural stone benchtops, and premium Sub-Zero Wolf appliances, delivering timeless elegance and next-level comfort.

The exchange of the $15.1 million apartment, follows a recent $5 million sale, and over $30 million currently in expressions of interests. Interest in Elevate’s penthouse stock has surged, reflecting a strong appetite for ultra-luxury residences that combine design excellence with unmatched connectivity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=142550 project_image_fid=309369]

“We’re seeing a significant uptick in interest from local and international buyers who are prioritising connectivity, sustainability, and lifestyle,” said Callum Billinghurst, Head of Sales at Third.i Group.&nbsp;

“These recent sales are a testament to the vision behind Elevate. It’s not just about luxury finishes or panoramic views, it’s about creating homes that are deeply connected to the city and the community. Buyers are responding to that. They want to live somewhere that offers more than just a postcode, they want culture, convenience, and long-term value. Elevate delivers all of that, and more.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=142550 project_image_fid=297878]

As part of the Hume Place precinct, Elevate is transforming Crows Nest into Sydney’s most dynamic urban village. Elevate’s unique position directly above the metro, combined with its curated amenity offering, has made it a magnet for buyers seeking a future-proof investment and a vibrant urban lifestyle.

The next release at Elevate is expected later this year.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=142550]

“We’re seeing a significant uptick in interest from local and international buyers who are prioritising connectivity, sustainability, and lifestyle,” said Callum Billinghurst, Head of Sales at Third.i Group


Joel Robinson

Third.i & PPI set Lower North Shore apartment record with $15.1m sale at Elevate Hume Place penthouse amalgamation

Sydney developer Deicorp is set to officially open its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/hills-showground-village-castle-hill-2-mandala-parade-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Showground Village</a> precinct in Castle Hill.

NSW Premier Chris Minns will attend the opening on Sunday August 31, alongside&nbsp;Minister for Planning and Public Spaces Paul Scully, The Hills Shire Council Mayor Dr Michelle Byrne, Landcom CEO Alex Wendler, and Deicorp Founder Fouad Deiri.

Located just moments from Hills Showground Metro Station, the centre spans 9,500 sqm across four levels and features 26 specialty retailers as well as a 1,400 sqm public plaza, creating a new community meeting point for shopping, dining, fitness, and everyday convenience.&nbsp;

Showground Village forms part of the Hills Showground Station Precinct, an urban renewal initiative led by Landcom and Sydney Metro that will provide for around 2,300 new jobs over the next 20 years and around 9,000 new homes.&nbsp;

Deicorp was recently approved for another new development next door to Showground Village.

The new five residential buildings in the East Showgrounds Precinct, will see another 873 dwellings delivered, as well as&nbsp;3,500 sqm of open public space in the form of landscaped courtyards, a public park and communal outdoor recreational space including a playground, barbeque area, and outdoor seating.

“This approval will allow us to start construction on a range of beautifully designed, conveniently located apartments and create another vibrant, walkable and well-connected community,” said&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/deicorp" target="">Deicorp</a>&nbsp;Founder Fouad Deiri.

“These new homes will provide their residents with a seamless connection to jobs and services along Metro North West, and the new&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/hills-showground-village-castle-hill-2-mandala-parade-castle-hill" target="">Hills Showground Village</a>&nbsp;retail precinct currently under construction."

Deicorp has several thousand apartments in planning and under construction across Sydney, from Zetland and Five Dock to Crows Nest and Macquarie Park.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=133881]

Deicorp, NSW Premier officially open Showground Village, new retail and hospitality hub in Castle Hill

ASX-listed developer Cedar Woods is progressing its plans for its Southbank arts precinct site.&nbsp;

The developer has filed plans, which are now with the&nbsp;Department of Transport and Planning, for a new 20-level tower at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/141-151-sturt-street-southbank-vic-3006">141–151 Sturt Street</a>, a 2,718 sqm block opposite the Habitat Filter sculpture.

The proposal seeks to demolish the two-level&nbsp;commercial building, including a small supermarket and medical tenancies, and create a new building with 180 apartments and a focus on an&nbsp;active public realm and arts integration.

&nbsp;

<img alt="Southbank site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="76a72db6-91ef-43ae-827d-a9cfa72893d2" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Site.png?VersionId=DZgtB4K6BswVh0QtCs3iLjXaLp0CbcEb" />

&nbsp;

There will be a full mix of apartment configurations, including 28 studio apartments, 16 one-bedroom, 104 two-bedroom, and 32 three-bedroom units.

Retail, creative arts, and residential amenity functions are integrated across the lower levels. A food and drink tenancy is planned to front Dodds Street, while a retail tenancy fronting Sturt Street will be accessed via an elevated walkway. The first floor includes a substantial 734 sqm creative arts space, envisioned to support Melbourne’s growing cultural and digital industries.

Architecture firm <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a> has put together the plans. In their&nbsp;Urban Design Report they highlighted the project’s ambition to embed itself within Southbank’s evolving cultural fabric.

A central feature of the design is a through-block link connecting Sturt and Dodds Streets, landscaped with native plantings and embedded with universal access ramps.

“The ramp has been thoughtfully integrated as the primary access point, ensuring universal accessibility for all users,” the report noted, with the link offering “a direct response to the urban planning scheme of creating more green spaces within our communities”.

<img alt="Southbank podium" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="4d24b1b2-d69c-4a11-a11d-ec6df432221c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/podium.png?VersionId=geWoJyZDmPSLODZ_.PNJ0LvpOmyyCdpo" />

The building’s podium form responds to the mandatory height limits along Dodds Street and maintains a fine-grain interface to adjoining developments. Above the podium, the tower is articulated with recessed balconies and a focus on views toward the CBD and surrounding arts institutions. A communal rooftop recreation deck and indoor lounge are positioned on level four, adjoining seven apartments and providing over 900 sqm of resident amenity space.

Vehicle access and loading will be provided via Dodds Street, with 155 resident car spaces located across two basement levels and the first three above-ground floors. Bicycle storage is more generous, with 226 spaces distributed across resident, staff and visitor needs.

Rothelowman describes the architecture as “humanist,” with ground-level interfaces designed to encourage social interaction and provide a dignified entry for both residents and passers-by. “All street interfaces are crafted to invite and nurture human connections,” the design report states. “The façade transitions to a human scale, providing an approachable and engaging streetscape”.

Cedar Woods, while well-known for its large communities it develops outside of Australia's capital cities, they have recently developed in Melbourne's inner-ring before. They are approaching completion at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/88-leveson-north-melbourne-88-leveson-street-north-melbourne-vic-3051">88 Leveson</a>, just 15 townhouses in the heart of North Melbourne.

Cedar Woods progresses with new apartment plans in Southbank arts precinct

Brisbane developers Core Property Partners and Vector Property Australia has teamed up for Brisbane's newest apartment development.

The duo identified <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/east-brisbane-qld-4169">East Brisbane</a> as their preferred suburb, on the fringe of the Gabba Precinct, where they've just revealed BANKSII, 72 apartments opposite Raymond Park.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136432 project_image_fid=5481]

The one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments will sit in a glass-wrapped building that will also feature a rooftop with an&nbsp;infinity-edge pool, a BBQ area and alfresco dining spaces, sun lounges, and a sauna, as well as a resident-only gym and a ground-floor cafe.

Rhett Williams, Director of Vector Property Australia, said the project will lift the quality of the East Brisbane community and set a new benchmark.

"In Brisbane’s current property landscape, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/banksii-east-brisbane-169-wellington-road-east-brisbane-qld-4169">BANKSII</a> stands out through its emphasis on lifestyle-oriented living, connectivity and sophisticated design," Williams says.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136432 project_image_fid=5479]

The 10-level building has been designed by MAS Architecture. Their designs were inspired by the native Banksia flower, with the architecture and interiors reflecting the organic symmetry of its namesake flora. MAS has interpreted this throughout the building’s curved form, façade detailing and interior palette.&nbsp;

The building’s flowing geometry and natural tones are complemented by large balconies and floor-to-ceiling glazing, maximising cross-breezes, daylight and views over the city, parklands and river.

“Having a strong narrative for a building helps us architecturally,” MAS noted. "We can choose colours that come off that species of flowers. The trunk and the trees and the flower elements all are now visible in our joinery on the inside and in our architectural finishes on the outside."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136432 project_image_fid=5485]

Apartments will feature timber floors, soft porcelain tiles, brushed bronze fittings, and stone benchtops with warm veining.&nbsp;

Kitchens feature premium SMEG appliances and generous storage, while bathrooms have been designed as calming retreats with curved cabinetry and twin sinks in the master ensuites.

The building will feature a suite of rooftop and wellness amenities. Residents will have access to an infinity-edge pool, BBQ and alfresco dining areas, sun lounges and a rooftop sauna.&nbsp;

A residents-only gym will be located on the podium level, while a ground-floor café and landscaped laneway will further activate the site and improve neighbourhood connectivity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136432 project_image_fid=5488]

BANKSII will rise from a prime Wellington Road site, with the building oriented to overlook the adjacent Raymond Park and take in extensive city views. It is also on the doorstep of key&nbsp;lifestyle infrastructure, including the future Kangaroo Point Green Bridge, The Gabba stadium, and the planned Brisbane Live arena.&nbsp;

Public transport options, including ferry, bus and rail - including the future Cross River Rail Woolloongabba station - are all nearby, supporting a car-optional lifestyle just minutes from the CBD.

Williams said the team spent over a year searching for the ideal site before securing this location.

"We were attracted to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/east-brisbane-qld-4169">East Brisbane</a> as it is a vibrant and growing community that offers a perfect balance of urban convenience and natural beauty with the parklands and river on our doorstep.”

The project is part of the broader Woolloongabba Games precinct, which is undergoing significant investment in the lead-up to the 2032 Brisbane Olympics. This urban renewal, coupled with infrastructure upgrades, is expected to enhance long-term liveability and capital growth in the area.

Given the wide max of configurations, BANKSII is expected to suit everyone from first home buyers and investors to families and downsizers.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=136432]

BANKSII sales launch in booming East Brisbane apartment market

The Minns Labor Government will deliver Sydney’s first new heavy rail station in more than a decade – enabling up to 10,000 new homes by rezoning land around Woollahra and Edgecliff stations, right next to the CBD, to tackle the housing crisis and rebalance growth across the city.

Recent reports by the NSW Productivity Commission have warned that Sydney is losing twice as many young people as it is gaining, while also finding that Woollahra is the most feasible Local Government Area (LGA) in New South Wales to build new housing.

Despite this, housing approvals in Woollahra consistently lag well behind other LGAs, and the population has declined by 11 per cent over the past 50 years while Greater Sydney as a whole has grown by 74 per cent.

The new station that will be an eight-minute trip from Sydney CBD, will be located on the Eastern Suburbs train line in Woollahra, where a station build was started in the 1970s but never completed.

To enable the delivery of new homes the NSW Government will lead a rezoning of Woollahra and Edgecliff stations similar to other state led rezonings to allow additional homes to be built around the stations.

Affordable housing will also make up a proportion of development on the site with the final amount of affordable housing required, to be determined as part of the rezoning process.

The area surrounding the new station is within walking distance of major green and recreational space including Cooper, Trumper, Rushcutters Bay and Centennial Parks.

The Eastern Suburbs train line between Bondi Junction and Sydney CBD also has the lowest passenger usage rates during the AM peak of any line on the Sydney network, with only 43 per cent of operating capacity during the AM peak currently being utilised by passengers.

Sydney Water and Infrastructure NSW have confirmed there is capacity in the water and wastewater systems to accommodate the proposed 10,000 dwellings without major upgrades.

The rezoning is expected to take around two years and will further support the Government’s housing targets that rebalance the delivery of new homes around existing infrastructure.

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

Next stop Woollahra train station - delivering up to 10,000 new homes in the heart of Sydney

Housing Collapse

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The recent release of median housing sale prices across Australia by the Domain Group demonstrates different results for Eastern seaboard cities compared to the west and for apartments compared to houses.
The Domain data over the last year shows a collapse in Sydney house median prices of 9.9 percent compared to a median apartment reduction of 5.8 percent.
Apartments are now $350,000 cheaper than the median house and this is making apartments more affordable and therefore more attractive to more people in the market.
The interesting result from the Domain data is that Australia has two quite different profiles. The eastern seaboard cities are clearly having major drops in both housing and apartment median prices but Adelaide is amazingly seeing median house and apartment prices going up not down.
The big message for Sydney from the Domain data is that apartments have lost value at half the rate of houses. This seems to be driven by the fact that apartments are generally around $350,000 cheaper on average than a house. Clearly many Sydney families and couples are still looking to buy an apartment rather than a house due to its affordability.
Even during a time of major contraction in the housing markets the swing to apartment living is tracking well.
The Urban Taskforce is concerned that the large drop in the value of houses and apartments has been partly driven by the pre-election negative attitude to so called over development by politicians harnessing votes by championing a stop to growth.
Sydney is still growing and the housing industry needs a steady supply process to maintain jobs rather than a major drop partly driven by scaremongering at election time.
CHRIS JOHNSON is the Urban Taskforce CEO
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cjohnson-8xfqfuuCSq

Domain housing sales collapse applies more to houses than apartments: Chris Johnson

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GUEST OBSERVATION
This is an email McGrath sent to his estate agents on Tuesday.
There was a piece on 60 Minutes that was particularly misleading in my opinion and unsurprisingly melodramatic in its depiction of a property market that could shortly spiral out of control.  It’s simply not the case.
In fact, barring any macro-economic disaster like we saw when the GFC took us all by surprise, I believe the property market has seen most of the value declines it is going to see this cycle (in many markets there has been a 5% to 10% decline in values this year and I think we may see another 5% to 7% in some areas) and at the end of that there will either be a steady state period of market stability or even a small positive rebound back by a few percent.  I say this having now experienced five property cycles in my 35 years real estate career and each time, often at around this stage of the cycle, hearing the same old headline grabbing commentary by one of two so-called experts saying something like “the Australian property market is in a bubble and when it bursts will fall by 40% etc.!” Which of course has never happened and unless we see a total financial catastrophe engulf the entire world is never going to happen.  Two questions that I get asked when I have this discussion.  “Why then do they say this and why do you think they are they wrong?” So the first one is the easiest one. Generally speaking the sponsors of such theories are seeking self-promotion.  They put their views forward in some form of press release aimed to grab media attention (the 60 Minutes story was called 'Bricks and Slaughter!') and inevitably are looking to promote a book or attract eyeballs to their website.  Steve Keen predicted a 40% drop in 2010, Johnathan Tepper predicted a 30% to 50% drop in 2016. Of course, none have even been close to accurate.  In fact, they have been ridiculously inaccurate on every occasion. And why are they going to be wrong again this time?  Well firstly you would have to interrogate what would have to happen for their theory would have any validity whatsoever. Firstly, two out of three Australians own their own home or are living in a home with the owner and one in three are in a rented place. Of the 66% who own their home, half of these homes are fully paid off with no loan whatsoever. Just park that fact for the moment but it should make you feel that property is on a very solid footing. Next let’s look at the generational change occurring – where many Baby Boomers (aged 60 to 75 approximately) are assisting their children secure a first home and of course as the life cycle turns, many will also be leaving their often-considerable assets to their kids.  And in the main most Australians are wealthier than ever before through their property, other assets or indeed inheritance. Statistically, the average Australian is worth around $395,000 which is at record highs. Next, let’s look at the underlying factors that we are experiencing today that may affect property, negatively or positively. We are enjoying a robust economy, low levels of unemployment, record low interest rates and significant overseas immigration and investment. None of these are likely to change significantly into the future. After all, we are the lucky country. So, when you combine the strong levels of home ownership with the robust economic and social markers it’s easy to see why the negative pundits have consistently got it wrong. Australian real estate is one of the best investments on the planet and that isn’t changing. Now I do have concern with housing affordability however. Despite the average Australian being technically wealthier than ever before there is no doubt that the ability for many Australians to buy their own property and in many instances even rent their own property is challenging. And this situation needs to be addresses urgently by both the Governments (Federal and State) as well as the private sector. What has been and will continue to be most Australians’ best financial freedom strategy, residential property, does have another side which must be addressed. Every Australian should have a path to securing shelter for themselves and their family and this issue will need strong collaboration by both private and public sectors to ensure we achieve this.  And at McGrath we are in a great position to assist and influence positive outcomes in this space. And we will.
John McGrath is the founder of McGrath Estate Agents.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

60 Minutes property segment was misleading and melodramatic: John McGrath

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Martin North says 60 Minutes took the worst case from his four scenarios as the basis of the alarming segment which went to air last night on Channel 9.
"It is not my central scenario, rated only a 20 percent chance, as I made clear when interviewed," he said noting this caveat did not make it to the final cut.
North suggested a fall of 45 percent in home prices would be over three years or so, and require the US financial markets to react to rising US Fed rates.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/9/17/north-forecast.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/9/17/north-forecast.jpg" alt="">
"This creates a GFC 2.0." North, a finance sector analyst and principal Digital Finance Analytics, suggested.
The 60 Minutes reporter Tom Steinfort advised "several of the experts we interviewed for this story estimate it could be as much as 40 percent in Melbourne and Sydney, while even the most optimistic property analysts concede there will be a drop of at least 10-15 percent."
Steinfort says he's been spooked by the downturn, holding off his desired property purchase with fiancee Claudia Jukic.
His 60 Minutes report kicked off with a serious inaccuracy.
"For as long as most of us care to remember, or perhaps only as long as we want to remember, property prices in Australia have only gone in one direction, at least in our big cities," Steinfort claimed.
CoreLogic's Cameron Kusher recently wrote <a href="/expert-insights/buying/2018-housing-declines-hit-melbournes-inner-east-and-sydneys-hills-district-hardest-corelogic">a detailed research analysis tracking the current downturn</a> with three downturns since 2003.
North said the figures used in the program did not reflect his “central scenario” and that Channel Nine “chose not to cover” the more likely alternatives.
“My best call would be [property value falls] in the region of 15-20 per cent from top, over two to three years,” he said.
You can read North's full analysis <a href="http://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/updated-finance-and-property-scenarios-summary-findings/" target="_blank">here</a>. 
 
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

45 percent housing price collapse was least likely scenario: Martin North's 60 Minutes postscript

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<div>
Australia's housing is among the four riskiest markets in the world, according to Oxford Economics.
It has a strong prospect of falling prices posing a threat to economic activity, the research paper noted
The housing market dangers were "especially acute" in Sweden, Australia, Canada and Hong Kong, according to Oxford.
Weighing up a range of risk factors, including housing valuations compared to long-term averages, it noted all four valuations were very elevated.
It noted there has been a lengthy housing boom, debt levels were high and there was a significant share of floating rate debt, Oxford's lead economist Adam Slater wrote in a research note.
The risks were relatively limited in key markets including the US, Germany, France, China and Japan.
</div>
<div>
Overall edian OECD house price valuations are below the 2006-07 peak but are higher for the risky markets, according to Oxford.
<div id="article-inline-ad">"Historical experience suggests that high valuations – of 125 per cent or more of the long-term average – point to a 60 per cent chance of prices falling over the next five years," Mr Slater wrote.</div>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"This matters because house prices can have a big impact on economic activity, even if the link may have loosened in the G7 in recent years.</div>
<div>
"Looking across a range of housing risk indicators, property market dangers look concentrated in a number of smaller advanced economies and are less severe for the largest economies."
On a valuation index where the long-term average is 100, Australian housing is at 160, while Sweden is at 165, Canada at 173 and Hong Kong at 203.
</div>
<div>Slater wrote rising rates are not strictly necessary for prices to start falling (i.e. Sweden) and in the context of high valuations and debt, even modest increases (i.e. Canada and Hong Kong) "could be a problem."</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Oxford's assessment suggest Australian house prices have another risk factor, with an 82 per cent share of its mortgages held on floating rates.</div>
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Australia's housing among the four riskiest markets in the world, Oxford Economics

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Ray White agents across Australasia achieved $3.4 billion in sales during August, which was the same tally as July.
However it was down on last August.
The last month of winter in 2017 saw the headline sales figure for Australia and New Zealand come at $3.67 billion, which was up nine percent compared to 2016.
At the time it was noted August 2017 "had produced a better result than many might have expected."
This week Brian White noted "while well below the result last year, it supports our view that the market may well have now adjusted."
Brian White, chairman of real estate agency Ray White, said the majority of the market correction had already happened.
“There has been an adjustment and I believe that much of that adjustment has been made,” Mr White said.
“The speed of the growth in Sydney and Melbourne was unsustainable.
"We are experiencing a healthier market.”
Markets outside Sydney and Melbourne had been resilient. 
“Only an explosion in interest rates would pull the market down significantly,” he said.
State based figures were not available for August 2018.
But in August 2017 New South Wales sales had lifted 18 per cent year on year to $1.259 billion. Sales volume in Victoria jumped 30 per cent to $647 million.
In August 2017 Queensland’s sales came in at $696 million, just $2 million shy of the same time in 2016. Tasmania booked $10 million, while Western Australia reported $84 million and South Australian sales came in at $117 million.  Its New Zealand network reported $629 million in August 2017, down 13 per cent on the same period in 2016.
 
 
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Ray White see August 2018 sales dip

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<div class="cq-article-content-paras section">
House price falls in Sydney and Melbourne "will get worse before they get better", Deloitte Access Economics says.
The increasingly higher cost and lower availability of credit will generate a "mini-credit crunch."
"The nation's immigration intake will be cut – perhaps severely – thereby undercutting many of the 'most likely' forecasts underpinning the growth of domestic markets," the report says.
There would also be a "fear-of-fear-itself" momentum, the report adds.
</div>
<div class="cq-article-content-media section">"Lending is down, it's amidst its longest dry spell since the global financial crisis, and investor loans have dropped to a six-year low," the Deloitte report, reported in The Australian Financial Review, says.</div>
<div class="cq-article-content-media section"> </div>
<div class="cq-article-content-media section">"That says housing price falls – now infecting Melbourne – will get worse before they get better," said Deloitte adding they still expect a pretty benign construction cycle.</div>
<div class="cq-article-content-paras section">
"That benign nature owes much to what we don't see in the next couple of years.
"We don't see China falling over and Australian unemployment jumping. And we don't see global and local interest rates rising fast.
"That still sees the current downswing bottoming out in late 2019 but, thanks to continuing population gains, bottoming at levels that are solid compared with the depths plumbed in past cycles."
Deloitte’s latest Business Outlook report projects that state and federal budgets will be hit hard by falling house prices and commodity prices.
</div>
<div class="cq-article-content-paras section">
NSW will bear the brunt of the housing downturn because it has had the biggest rise in house prices among capital cities.
Expensive homes will struggle to sell but there will be "less damage at the lower end", which benefits from first home buyer concessions, the report says.
“House prices are essentially a function of how much people can borrow,” Deloitte economists led by Chris Richardson wrote in their 155-page quarterly report released today.
“Big banks are now running scared,” it suggests.
“Their sudden surge of caution means borrowers with the same characteristics would now get a smaller loan than they would have 18 months ago.”
They predict the current house price falls in Australia will “keep on keeping on”.
 
</div>
<div class="cq-article-content-paras section">
 
</div>
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House price falls in Sydney and Melbourne "will get worse before they get better"

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<div>GUEST OBSERVER</div>
<div>
 Australia has roughly “six weeks” to prevent a housing market collapse caused by the banks’ crackdown on foreign investment, a US-based security think tank has warned, according to a News Limited press report.   Quite clearly, you can tell from the website of the think tank, the International Strategic Studies Association, are not exactly experts in the field of Australian housing.   As I tweeted out yesterday, if we are truly six weeks away from a national housing crash, why are most leading indicators such as auction clearance rates and total real estate listings suggesting otherwise?   And surely we would also be already recording a significant rise in non-performing loans? The chart below shows that’s clearly not the case. Such loans, in fact, remain at low levels. <a href="/images/2016/09/15/e7a43fa6-d686-4b6d-b16d-d1e7f2464075.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
</div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/09/15/e7a43fa6-d686-4b6d-b16d-d1e7f2464075.png" alt="">   We pretty much have had from the time the national market started to rally in late 2012, a pile of market bears declaring the imminent crash of the Australian housing market. They are, what I call, the boys who cried wolf. And one thing they all have in their favor is a media circus who will give them all a front page and reporters who rarely check their credentials, qualifications or their previous track records, which too often leave little to be desired.   I guess, in the above story at least, News Limited, who had the 'exclusive', asked for a counter view. I am also pleased to say one very major television network opted out of taking the ‘story’ any further when they contacted the SQM Research office for its view.     More than this, I am convinced there is an industry of bear spruikers who earn a living preaching the end of the financial world, and for that matter, the demise of Australian housing. Take this example from Harry Dent -   a very public figure who has repeatedly made trips to Australia preaching the end of our housing market.  No wonder he enjoys coming out here.  You see, if you want to hire out Harry for a speaking engagement, the cost will be US$20,000 to US$40,000. Not bad for a day’s pay!   I’m sure if I were to dig deeper into a number of these very public bears, we would most certainly uncover a prosperous industry. That is, so-called experts making big dollars out of preaching doom.   Now, I have always said that I have no problem with those voicing the risks in the Australian housing market. There are indeed many risks, particularly those associated with the ever-rising level of household debt to GDP and what that would mean if our country just returned to ‘normal’ cash rate settings. That would indeed likely trigger a real rise in bad loans.  </div>
<div> </div>
<div>These risks need to be pointed out to all participants. That, along with particular risks within the housing market, such as a clear oversupply of Brisbane CBD apartments, as the elevated vacancy rate highlights.   And for that matter the ongoing collapse of the Perth rental market, particularly in the Perth CBD itself, where the vacancy rate is over 8 per cent.   But it’s when I see headline-grabbing stories like the one above, with no follow up investigation, that I feel the public are been taken for a ride by sections of the media and by 'experts' out to grab a headline and maybe a quick buck.   Sorry to say, the great Australian housing crash predicted by Harry Dent and other so-called experts in 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017 is far from a certainty.   There are many other ways our overvalued housing market may return to some sort of sense of fair value, which could include the very ‘boring’ scenario of underperformance for a very long time.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Louis Christopher is managing director, SQM Research and can be contacted <a href="https://sqmresearch.com.au" target="_blank">here</a>.</div>
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