One of North Sydney's best-known commercial buildings could become hundreds of new homes, with insurance giant Zurich Australia lodging a State Significant Development Application (SSDA) to transform 5 Blue Street into a mixed-use residential development above North Sydney Station.

Rather than demolishing the existing building and starting again, Zurich is proposing an adaptive reuse project that would convert the landmark office building into a 15-level residential development delivering 62 apartments, 86 affordable co-living dwellings, activated retail and significant upgrades to the Blue Street Plaza.

The proposal reflects a growing trend of commercial property owners repositioning ageing office assets into residential housing as Sydney grapples with housing supply shortages and changing workplace demand.

<img alt="Zurich" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0bba7d12-06dc-4375-aad7-238c94b21ac5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-22%20at%2010.42.05%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=NJl5oLAEBDGuPmY3RnyliKODjMc8lvRh" />

Located directly above North Sydney Metro and train station, the 3,051 sqm site occupies one of the most strategically positioned parcels of land on Sydney's Lower North Shore.

Designed by fjcstudio, the proposal seeks to retain and adapt much of the existing structure while creating a contemporary residential address that better connects with the public domain surrounding North Sydney Station.

The application proposes two basement levels, ground floor retail, affordable co-living accommodation across the podium levels, and apartments above, while preserving and enhancing the publicly accessible Blue Street Plaza.

Rather than pursuing maximum apartment numbers, Zurich has opted for a housing mix heavily weighted towards larger owner-occupier residences.

The proposal includes 62 build-to-sell apartments comprising 12 one-bedroom, 19 two-bedroom, 29 three-bedroom apartments and two premium penthouses. It also incorporates 86 affordable co-living dwellings, which would be managed in perpetuity by a Community Housing Provider.

That balance between traditional apartments and affordable housing reflects the NSW Government's push to increase housing diversity around major transport infrastructure.

The proposal has been lodged concurrently with a rezoning application, with Zurich arguing the site is ideally positioned to support additional housing given its immediate proximity to public transport, employment and services.

"The proposal aims to respond to the housing challenges facing Sydney through the delivery of diverse housing types in a highly accessible location," the design report by fjcstudio states. It also seeks to improve pedestrian amenity through upgrades to Blue Street Plaza while creating a high-performing residential building that responds to the surrounding context.

<img alt="Zurich" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="36082e15-c636-4481-bb68-5a5f6443fe39" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-22%20at%2010.41.36%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=5P6VD.fvmqjQfIG3TWWMRXxQWiQBjeFB" />

Rather than replacing the commercial building, fjcstudio has developed a design that works with the existing structural framework above the rail corridor, an approach that significantly reduces demolition while allowing the site to be repositioned as a mixed-use residential precinct.

The existing structural constraints have informed much of the building's design, including its relationship with Blue Street and surrounding public spaces.

The building has been designed as a slender tower rising above a clearly defined podium, with vertically expressed façades intended to reduce the perceived bulk while reinforcing North Sydney's emerging skyline.

According to fjcstudio, the architectural language responds directly to the surrounding commercial towers while maintaining a finer grain expression more closely aligned with the neighbouring Lavender Bay streetscape.

The tower incorporates articulated façade elements, landscaped podium edges and recessed upper levels to soften its appearance and improve pedestrian amenity below.

A significant component of the proposal is the revitalisation of Blue Street Plaza.

The existing public space has long served as one of the primary pedestrian connections between North Sydney Station, Greenwood Plaza and Blue Street, yet its role is expected to become even more important following the opening of Sydney Metro.

Zurich's proposal seeks to strengthen that role by improving landscaping, introducing new retail frontages, enhancing pedestrian permeability and creating more active edges throughout the day and evening.

Ground floor retail would wrap the plaza, while separate residential and co-living entries have been designed to improve wayfinding without reducing street activation.

Landscape design has been integrated throughout the podium and public realm, softening what is currently one of the most heavily urbanised parts of North Sydney.

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fjcstudio has carefully oriented apartments towards Sydney Harbour and the CBD while using privacy blades and articulated façades to minimise overlooking between neighbouring buildings.

Large framed openings along the western elevation maximise harbour outlooks, while the eastern apartments have been angled towards the south-east to improve privacy from neighbouring development.

The project forms part of the continuing transformation of North Sydney from a predominantly commercial CBD into a genuine mixed-use city centre.

Since the completion of Victoria Cross Metro Station, developers have increasingly shifted their attention towards residential projects capable of leveraging the area's unparalleled transport connectivity.

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FiveX recently lodged plans for a 61-storey, 490-apartment tower that would become one of the tallest residential buildings in North Sydney if approved.

Aqualand continues to expand its Lower North Shore presence following the completion of AURA on Walker Street and its recent St Leonards and Roseville proposals.

Developers are also progressing projects throughout Walker Street, Miller Street and the Victoria Cross precinct as demand for well-located owner-occupier apartments continues to strengthen.

Joel Robinson

First look: Zurich targets North Sydney office conversion with 148-unit proposal above Metro station

Busy developer Aqualand Prestige has formally taken the next step in its expansion across Sydney's Lower North Shore, lodging a State Significant Development Application (SSDA) for its long-held Archer Street site in Chatswood.

The application covers <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/51-55-archer-street-chatswood-nsw-2067">51-55 Archer Street</a>, a 1,767 sqm amalgamated site on the eastern edge of the Chatswood CBD, where the developer is seeking approval for a 45-level mixed-use tower delivering 114 apartments, including a significant affordable housing component, alongside retail, commercial space and six basement levels of parking.

The SSDA marks the latest milestone for a project Aqualand has been quietly progressing over the past two years. The developer first secured the site for its Aqualand Prestige platform before undertaking an alternative design excellence process with PTW Architects, ultimately avoiding a formal design competition through the Housing Delivery Authority pathway.

The proposal has evolved considerably from Aqualand's original concept. The revised scheme has been designed around larger owner-occupier product, with an unusually high proportion of three and four-bedroom apartments, targeting the more affluent buyer profile, and downsizer, emerging across the North Shore.

<img alt="Archer St" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0171204c-5811-41b5-9b09-2335d1b7c3d0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-22%20at%208.52.48%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=6YTuxfq.puZo7k2wbfgemcO5K3QfXYGQ" />

The 114-apartment mix comprises six studios, 27 one-bedroom apartments, 18 two-bedroom apartments, 50 three-bedroom residences and 13 four-bedroom homes. A quarter of the building will be dedicated to affordable housing, well above the mandated 15 per cent&nbsp;

PTW has structured the building vertically, with affordable housing across levels one to six, premium apartments through levels seven to 31, duplex skyhomes on klevels 32 to 43, a penthouse on level 44, and a rooftop plant level above. Six basement levels will provide resident parking and servicing.

The tower is proposed to reach approximately 154 metres, placing it among a growing collection of residential high-rises transforming Chatswood's skyline.

Rather than competing purely on height, PTW says the design has been driven by creating a slimmer tower capable of delivering significantly larger apartments.

"The primary objective of this project was to create a distinctive building that stands out from the recently approved or built structures in the Chatswood area," the design report states, noting the structural efficiency allows greater investment into apartment quality and resident amenity.

Residents would have access to more than 450 sqm of communal open space including landscaped gardens, swimming pool, rooftop entertaining areas, fitness spaces, community gardens, children's play areas and barbecue facilities.

A major focus of the design has been the public domain.

The ground plane has been opened up through landscaped terraces inspired by Willoughby's sandstone ridges, with native planting, public seating, artwork, retail activation and a series of gathering spaces intended to soften what has traditionally been a hard commercial streetscape.

The landscape strategy references Blue Gum forests once common throughout the area, while incorporating Indigenous storytelling, public art and lighting installations to strengthen the connection to Country.

Chatswood has been one of Sydney's busiest apartment markets over the past 12 months, with a steady pipeline of both new project launches and fresh development applications.

Hyecorp recently launched Celine, a 122-apartment development just along Archer Street, while Changfa and Huirong Group are progressing The Anderson, an 84-apartment project on Anderson Street.

Develotek recently secured approval for a 101-apartment tower on Pacific Highway, while Tian An LFD received the green light for Hammond Greens, its apartment development on the edge of the Chatswood Bowling Club.

Commercial property developer FiveX is also making its move into the residential market. Last month it lodged plans for a 61-storey tower with 490 apartments, which, if approved, would become one of the tallest residential buildings in Chatswood.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-fivex-targets-chatswood-skyline-with-61-storey-tower-after-north-sydney-plans">First look: FiveX targets Chatswood skyline with 61-storey tower after North Sydney plans</a>

Aqualand is also expanding its development pipeline following the launch of its luxury residential brand, Aqualand Prestige. The developer has delivered a string of high-end apartment projects across Sydney's affluent suburbs over the past decade, most recently AURA by Aqualand on Walker Street in North Sydney.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=30959 project_image_fid=292863]

It has since quietly assembled its next wave of projects.

Earlier this year Aqualand launched Boronia in Roseville, a boutique 111-apartment development on Larkin Street. The project is one of the first significant apartment developments to launch in the suburb ahead of what is expected to become one of Sydney's most active new housing precincts under the NSW Government's Low and Mid-Rise Housing reforms, which allow greater density around train stations.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152095 project_image_fid=373685]

The developer has also lodged plans for a two-tower, 413-apartment development on Herbert Street in nearby St Leonards, further strengthening its presence across the Lower North Shore.

Beyond that, Aqualand remains behind the final stage of Barangaroo, where plans will deliver a five-hectare mixed-use precinct comprising new homes, retail, hospitality and community facilities, alongside a new Metro entrance and more than two hectares of public open space, completing the Barangaroo precinct.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/central-barangaroo-development-takes-big-step-with-concept-proposal-approval">Central Barangaroo development takes big step with concept proposal approval</a>

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-aqualand-joins-st-leonards-apartment-party">First look: Aqualand joins St Leonards apartment party</a> 
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First look: Aqualand pushes ahead with Chatswood apartment tower as SSDA lodged for Archer Street

Mass timber is becoming an increasingly popular construction material in apartment developments, but Adelaide developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/otello">Otello</a> is taking the approach a step further.

At its new <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flowe-bowden-18-gibson-street-bowden-sa-5007">Flowe Bowden</a> development, the exposed cross-laminated timber (CLT) structure isn't just about reducing the building's environmental footprint. It also forms the foundation of a broader wellness strategy, influencing everything from indoor air quality and natural materials to the way residents move through and experience the building.

The 115-apartment mixed-use development, designed by Melbourne-based architecture practice Fieldwork, will occupy a prominent island site opposite Bowden Village Reserve, combining one, two and three-bedroom apartments with retail and a dedicated wellness destination.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152022 project_image_fid=375528]

Wellness isn't confined to a gym or shared resident facility at Flowe. Instead, Fieldwork embedded the concept into the building itself.

The development has been split into two residential wings connected by a naturally ventilated central breezeway, replacing traditional enclosed corridors with open-air walkways that improve natural light, encourage cross ventilation and create more opportunities for neighbourly interaction.

"Rather than treating wellness as something that only happens on the ground floor, our response integrates it throughout the building, which led us to ask what it really means to design a healthy building," Fieldwork Director Quino Holland said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152022 project_image_fid=375531]

The building's architecture also reflects Bowden's industrial heritage. The lower podium references the area's historic brick and sandstone buildings, while the upper levels transition to exposed CLT, allowing the timber structure to become a defining feature throughout the apartments and shared spaces.

The use of mass timber sits alongside a range of sustainability initiatives, including a fully electric, gas-free design, rooftop solar and a targeted 5 Star Green Star rating.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152022 project_image_fid=375524]

Inside the residences, the focus remains on natural, durable materials. Blackbutt engineered timber flooring, exposed CLT ceilings, porcelain surfaces and warm timber joinery create a calming interior palette, while low-VOC finishes and responsibly sourced materials have been selected to improve indoor air quality.

Kitchens have been designed as the centrepiece of each apartment, featuring porcelain island benchtops, timber-look cabinetry and brushed steel tapware, with layouts that maximise natural light and ventilation.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152022 project_image_fid=375530]

The more traditional interpretation of wellness comes in the form of Level Eleven, a two-storey wellness club spanning the ground floor, mezzanine and first floor.

The facility will include a gym, yoga and reformer Pilates studios, Finnish and infrared saunas, magnesium hot and cold plunge pools, and dedicated recovery spaces. Unlike many residential wellness facilities, Level Eleven will also operate commercially, allowing the broader Bowden community to access the venue while giving residents exclusive membership benefits.

The ground floor has also been designed around everyday living. A café overlooking Bowden Village Reserve will activate the street frontage, while a bike workshop with tool storage, co-working space and dog wash has been incorporated to support daily routines and encourage interaction between residents.

"Flowe brings together my two biggest passions, creating places and creating healthier lives," Otello founder Daniel Harris said.

"We wanted to create something Adelaide hasn't seen before, a genuinely healthy building, where the way you live is lifted without even trying."

Flowe is positioned directly opposite Bowden Village Reserve and within walking distance of Bowden Railway Station and the Adelaide Entertainment Centre, placing future residents just minutes from the Adelaide CBD while remaining connected to one of the city's most established urban renewal precincts.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152022]

Otello launches wellness-focused Flowe Bowden with Adelaide-first mass timber apartment design

Not all apartment amenities are immediately visible.

Swimming pools, gyms, rooftop terraces and residents' lounges have long featured on buyers' wishlists, but as the way Australians live has changed, so too have the features that make apartment living more convenient.

Increasingly, buyers are placing value on the practical aspects of day-to-day life. Fast internet, EV charging, secure bike storage, flexible workspaces and parcel management are becoming just as relevant as lifestyle amenities, reflecting changing habits and expectations.

Online shopping has been one of the biggest drivers of that shift.

Australians spent a record $82.6 billion shopping online in 2025, with almost one in every four retail dollars now spent digitally, making parcel deliveries a routine part of everyday life rather than an occasional convenience.

For apartment residents, however, receiving those deliveries isn't always straightforward.

Without someone home to accept a parcel, deliveries can be redirected to a nearby Post Office, left in building foyers or common areas, or require building management to temporarily store packages. As apartment living continues to grow across Australia's cities, parcel management has become an increasingly important consideration for both residents and developers.

Australia Post's Parcel Locker network is one response to that shift.

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/KPZ9j5FRdsQ?si=Qztc1dNP3ZvEIUhb" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>

Rather than relying on home delivery, eligible parcels can be directed to a nominated Parcel Locker, where they're securely stored until collected. Once a parcel arrives, residents receive a notification through the AusPost app or SMS and can retrieve it using a one-time code or QR code at a time that suits them.

The network has expanded to more than 1,500 locations nationwide, with Parcel Lockers positioned at Post Offices, shopping centres, supermarkets, transport hubs and, increasingly, within or alongside residential developments.

That growing presence reflects a broader change in how apartment buildings are being planned.

Developers are increasingly considering the operational side of apartment living alongside traditional lifestyle amenities. Just as secure mailrooms, bicycle storage and EV charging have become more common inclusions, parcel management is emerging as another feature that supports everyday convenience.

It also helps preserve the arrival experience within a building. Carefully designed lobbies and communal spaces can quickly become cluttered when deliveries accumulate, while secure parcel solutions reduce the likelihood of missed deliveries or parcels being left unattended.

For buyers comparing apartments, these everyday details are becoming part of the decision-making process.

Location, floorplans and finishes remain fundamental, but the features that simplify daily life are carrying greater weight than they once did. As online shopping continues to shape consumer behaviour, secure parcel delivery is increasingly becoming another amenity worth looking for.

Parcel delivery is joining the apartment amenity checklist

Inca Property Group has lodged a State Significant Development Application (SSDA) for Dawn, a 53-apartment oceanfront development overlooking Mona Vale Beach.

The proposal, at 35-39 Darley Street East, would replace an existing 18-apartment strata building with a new owner-occupier-focused development comprising 53 two and three-bedroom apartments, including nine affordable built-to-rent residences delivered under the State's infill affordable housing scheme.

Positioned on a 2,679 sqm elevated site around 280 metres from Mona Vale Beach, the development has been designed to maximise panoramic ocean views while responding to the site's sloping topography.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/inca-property-group">Inca Property Group</a> Managing Director Josh Thompson said the State Significant pathway provided greater certainty for projects of this scale.

"This State Significant pathway gives the team real certainty to progress <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/dawn-35-39-darley-street-east-mona-vale-nsw-2103">Dawn</a> through to completion," Thompson said.

"It allows us to acquire a one-off site, design it carefully and deliver the right offering for the suburb, assessed by the NSW Government's planning department."

The project is one of the first developments in the area to be assessed under the NSW Government's Low and Mid-Rise Housing policy, with the site sitting on the edge of the policy's designated inner area.

The proposal includes three basement levels providing 124 car spaces, alongside a range of resident amenities including a swimming pool, gym, sauna, wellness facilities and private plunge pools for selected ground-floor and penthouse apartments.

<img alt="Dawn" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="fc1a1daf-0ce4-4f12-9076-b1fa553c7a91" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-21%20at%208.42.11%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=4GZ9h.gpNkTljbxyAET8Jfhv51XUamDm" />

Thompson said Dawn had been designed specifically for owner-occupiers and downsizers, a buyer profile that has driven demand across Inca's recent Upper North Shore developments.

"The majority of buyers in our recent North Shore projects have been downsizers, and we are learning exactly what this market is looking for. Beyond the location itself, we have included resort-style amenities to deliver a genuine lifestyle offering," Thompson said.

Located within walking distance of Mona Vale Beach, the town centre, Mona Vale Golf Club and the Royal Motor Yacht Club, Dawn represents Inca's first Northern Beaches project following the sell-out of Tara on Park in Waitara and Ellis Residences, currently under construction in St Ives.

Construction will be undertaken by Inca's in-house construction arm, GOP Constructions.

Dawn is the latest major apartment proposal for Mona Vale, with the suburb emerging as one of the key beneficiaries of the NSW Government's new Low and Mid-Rise Housing policy.

New developer One Living, led by industry veteran Joseph Scuderi, recently secured a site on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, where it is planning around 140 apartments.

IPM is also planning its third project in Mona Vale, significantly increasing the scale of its previous developments with an 82-apartment proposal at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/159-167-darley-street-west-mona-vale-nsw-2103">159-167 Darley Street West</a>, opposite Bayview Golf Course and less than 800 metres from Mona Vale town centre.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/one-living-enters-sydneys-new-apartment-market-with-northern-beaches-site-acquisition">One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition</a>

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-ipm-plans-third-mona-vale-project">First look: IPM plans third Mona Vale project</a>

First look: Inca eyes Mona Vale with State Significant DA for Dawn apartments

Housing Bubble

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The UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index, designed to track the risk of housing bubbles in global financial centres, places Sydney as fifth riskiest.
Toronto tops the index in 2017, but all sub-indicators "point unequivocally" to elevated risk in the Sydney housing market.
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Sydney’s housing market has been overheating since the city became a target for Chinese investors several years ago, the index again noted.
"Low interest rates, rising wealth and exuberant expectations also buoyed local demand. 
"So valuations soared and pushed the market into bubble risk zone," it concluded. 
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Since 1980 the average real annual price rise in Sydney has been 3.5 percent, the highest among all select cities. 
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"Real prices again shot up 12 percent in the last four quarters and are now 60 percent higher than in 2012.
"Incomes increased by a meagre 2 percent in infation-adjusted terms. Tax breaks and interest-only loans are whitewashing the worsening affordability for the time being." 
According to the UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index, the bubble risk in select world cities has increased significantly over the last five years.
 Real house prices of those metropolises within the bubble-risk zone have climbed by almost 50% on average since 2011.
 In the other financial centres prices had only risen by roughly 15%. 
"This gap is grossly out of proportion to the differences in local economic growth and inflation rates," the report noted.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/29/UBSchart.jpg" target="_blank">Click here to enlarge</a>
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Bubble risk seems greatest in Toronto. 
Stockholm, Munich, Vancouver, Sydney, London and Hong Kong all remain in risk territory, with Amsterdam joining this group after falling into 'overvalued' territory last year. 
Valuations are stretched in Paris, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Zurich, Frankfurt, Tokyo and Geneva as well. 
In contrast, property markets in Boston, Singapore, New York and Milan seem fairly valued, while Chicago remains undervalued, just as it was last year.
Sydney ranked fourth most riskiest in the 2016 report which also advised “Sydney’s housing market had been overheating since the city became a target for Chinese investors several years ago."
The latest report noted in Munich, Toronto, Amsterdam, Sydney and Hong Kong, prices rose more than 10% in the last year alone.
"Annual price-increase rates of 10 percent correspond to a doubling of house prices every seven years, which is not sustainable.
"Never-the-less, the fear of missing out on further appreciation predominates among home buyers.
"After all, the price increases appear rational, for three reasons," it suggested. First, financing conditions in many cities are now more attractive than ever before, it noted. Second, the global increase in wealthy households seemingly creates constant demand for the most attractive residential areas. Third, building activity cannot keep pace with this demand.
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"Expectations tend to be prone to exaggerations in boom phases," the annual report advised.
It suggested the optimistic projections of the trends "created ever-greater price fantasies."
However, should sentiment change or interest rates increase, a correction is practically inevitable. 
"In the past, rising interest rates almost always triggered a crash in housing markets. 
"In addition, the dependence of prices on international ows of capital represents an incalculable risk. 
"Plus, once demand fell, even the low growth in supply would no longer provide an anchor," it concluded.
Vastly overvalued housing markets have historically been associated with a significantly heightened probability of correction and greater downside than housing markets whose prices developed more in line with the local economy, UBS advised.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Chinese buyers ensure Sydney remains a risky housing bubble: UBS global bubble index

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GUEST OBSERVER
Strong house price growth in Sydney and Melbourne in recent years largely reflects fundamentals.
Interest rates have been low, population growth and foreign demand have been strong and supply has been insufficient in these cities.
Tightened prudential settings and higher mortgage are expected to cool the Sydney and Melbourne housing markets in 2018.
Prices have risen most where housing supply is inadequate.
Australia has had a housing construction and price boom in recent years.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/01/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-01%20at%2010.41.44%20AM.png">Click to enlarge</a>
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Much of the boom reflects the central bank's use of its cash rate setting to manage the mining boom.
A high cash rate in the earlier period (4.75% in 2011), held back housing to make way for the mining boom.
Subsequent cash rate cuts (to 1.50%) drove a housing construction and price boom.
This has been mostly a good story.
The housing construction boom has helped to fill the growth gap left by falling mining investment and has reduced an accumulated housing undersupply.
Not many houses were built during the mining boom.
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The challenge has been that national housing prices have risen by 50% since mid-2012 and much of the rise has been driven by rising household debt.
This has reduced housing affordability and raised questions about whether Australia has a housing bubble. 
However, just because prices and housing debt have risen does not necessarily mean that there is a bubble.
The key question is whether the rise is in line with fundamentals? In our view, to a large degree, it has been.
Housing prices have risen very little in regions where housing demand has been weak, or supply has been boosted.
In contrast, where supply has not kept up with demand, house price growth has been strong.
For example, housing prices have only risen by 6% in Perth, 11% in Adelaide and 21% in Brisbane since 2012, where the mining retreat has had its biggest effects (Chars 25 &amp; 26). By contrast, Melbourne and Sydney prices have risen by 60% and 80%, respectively. In addition to low interest rates, demand for housing has been supported by migration (both international and domestic) and foreign investment: factors which have been strongest in Sydney and Melbourne.
Although supply has increased in the Sydney and Melbourne markets, it has still been insufficient to meet demand (Chart 27).
These fundamental factors largely explain the price boom and, as a result, we do not judge it to be a bubble.
It’s the distribution of debt that matters the most
Another element that could indicate a housing bubble would be misallocated lending.
If the lending that has driven the housing boom has been to households that may be unable to service it when interest rates rise, then this could cause a sharper fall in housing prices than otherwise, much as the sub-prime crisis did in the US last decade.
It is therefore the distribution of debt that matters most, rather than the aggregate level.
Although Australia has high household debt levels, in our view, they are high for fundamental reasons.
There is also strong evidence that the distribution of debt is fairly favourable and the institutional features of the mortgage market should help to ensure financial stability.
First, all of Australia's mortgages are full recourse loans. Second, Australia does not have sub- prime or low documentation loans.
Third, most of the household debt is held by higher income households (Chart 28). Fourth, although household debt is high when compared with other countries, this partly reflects differences in the tax system. In Australia, households are able to deduct the expenses related to investment properties from their broader income tax liabilities.
As a result, around one-quarter of household debt is investors that own rental properties. In many other countries, these rental properties are owned by the corporate sector.
Fifth, given the lack of tax deductibility of expenses on a first, owner-occupied, mortgage, households have an incentive to pay down their owner-occupied mortgages ahead of schedule.
As a result, the average mortgage in Australia is over 2.5 years pre-paid, which offers a significant buffer in the face of a negative income shock.
Finally, prudential settings have been tightened in Australia since late 2014, given concerns that authorities have had about the booming Sydney and Melbourne housing markets.
Tightened prudential settings make it unlikely that there has been a large enough mis-allocation of housing lending to be a systemic risk.
Overall, we expect housing price growth to slow in Sydney and Melbourne over the next couple of years, as new supply ramps up, the foreign bid pulls back (partly due to new state taxes on foreigners) and interest rates rise. 
<a href="https://www.about.hsbc.com.au/hsbc-in-australia/management-team" target="_blank">PAUL BLOXHAM</a> IS CHIEF ECONOMIST (AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND) FOR HSBC. 
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Housing boom not bubble: Paul Bloxham

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Australia needs to fix its “spectacular housing bubble” with tougher regulatory measures, according to Citigroup Inc’s chief economist Willem Buiter.
A shortage of housing and record-low interest rates has made Sydney the world’s second-most expensive property market. Home prices in Australia’s biggest city jumped 16 per cent in the 12 months through April, helping stoke record household debt which has also been cited as a concern by the central bank. 
“It had better be focused on immediately, to try and tether a soft housing landing,” Buiter was quoted by Bloomberg as saying. 
“Clearly if these things are not managed well they can be a trigger for a cyclical downturn.”
Michael Pascoe, the Fairfax Media columnist noted there had been "wildly disproportionate coverage" given to visiting Citi chief economist Willem Buiter. 
"Buiter has been forecasting a recession for a couple of years now," Pascoe said.
"If he keeps it up, odds are he will eventually be right.
"While waiting for that, it's bemusing that a visiting fireman who apparently is not very well informed about the Australian economy is taken so seriously and granted such wide coverage," Pascoe said.
Buiter's comments certainly add to the growing commentary over whether Australia has a property market bubble - where house prices are over-inflated compared to a benchmark - and when it might burst.
Property Observer has previously outlined four scenarios where this could happen, based on expert views.
In response to a tighter regulatory environment aimed at taking the heat of the east coast property market, the country’s biggest banks have made home loans for investors and interest-only mortgages more expensive relative to owner-occupier loans.
The Reserve Bank of Australia has cited the east-coast property markets and their impact on financial stability as a key concern. While it’s reluctant to cut the benchmark interest rate from the record low 1.5 per cent and stoke further price rises, lifting borrowing costs would place a greater burden on households saddled with debt already at 189 per cent of gross domestic product.
Buiter also warned that a downturn in China would hurt Australia more because of its dependence on commodity exports. He is forecasting a downturn in China, Bloomberg reported.
“The good news for Australia is of course that its performance is the best of any advanced economy,” he said. “You still have a little bit of monetary policy elbow room left and, as far as I can tell, a lot of fiscal elbow room left.”
Buiter urged the country to do more to boost its infrastructure pipeline, and ensure there was a long list of “shovel-ready” projects to cope with any downturn.
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Citi chief economist says immediate fix needed for 'property bubble'

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/74925/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
The b-word is doing the rounds, barely a decade after the United States house price bubble burst spectacularly, setting in motion a global financial crisis. As Australian real estate prices continue to break records, many wonder whether this is sustainable. 
Economists disagree on how to define a bubble, or even whether bubbles exist. Intuitively, a bubble (and this applies to any asset, not just real estate) exists when the price of an asset is over-inflated relative to some benchmark. And here’s the rub: no one can agree on what that benchmark should be.
The benchmark could be an estimate of the asset’s value based on a collection of variables that plausibly affect its supply, demand and price, so-called fundamentals. For houses, these fundamentals include population growth, tax policy, household size, household income, and many others. 
But economists cannot agree on what fundamentals determine an asset price, or how important each fundamental is. As well, the value of these fundamentals can only be estimated, not observed. It’s subjective to the point that someone will always be able to concoct a story based on fundamentals to rationalise why house prices are at the level they are.
Some economists propose alternative benchmarks to measure a bubble, such as historical long-run averages or an estimate of the underlying value of a trend. If asset prices are greater than these averages or the trend, then we have a bubble. However, this definition is too simplistic because the economy is dynamic, ever evolving, and both long-run averages, as well as trends, do change.
Price hikes and bubbles
It’s only when asset prices reach outrageous heights that a majority of people, economists included, agree that it is overpriced and due for a major correction (a bubble burst). Even then some economists will deny the existence of a bubble. 
One of the earliest examples of an asset price bubble was the frenzy in the market for Dutch tulip bulbs in the seventeenth century — the so-called “Tulipmania”. Although the data is patchy and many historians have not exercised great care in retelling the story, there’s little else to explain how prices for Witte Croonen bulbs rose 26-fold in January 1637 and fell to one-twentieth of their peak value in the first week of February.
Yet, well-respected scholar Peter Garber argued that:
"The wonderful tales from the tulipmania are catnip irresistible to those with a taste for crying bubble, even when the stories are so obviously untrue. So perfect are they for didactic use that financial moralizers will always find a ready market for them in a world filled with investors ever fearful of financial Armageddon."
Assuming bubbles are a significant gap between the observed asset price and some appropriate benchmark value, the mere existence of this gap begs the question of how it came about. The answers mostly rely on psychology, which is why many economists (looking to represent the world in a mathematical model) struggle with the concept.
Bubble frenzy
Bubbles are ultimately a confidence game, in which the vendor sells the asset to a buyer at a profit, with the latter hoping to do the same in the future. This game relies on a powerful narrative that captures people’s imagination and persuades them their turn will be different. 
As George Soros, the famous US-Hungarian multi-billionaire hedge fund manager once remarked:
"Bubbles don’t grow out of thin air. They have a solid basis in reality, but reality as distorted by a misconception."
This misconception is the consequence of human behaviour and traits that depart from the fully rational paradigm so often assumed in formal economics. Instead, as behavioural economists argue, people exhibit a number of biases.
These include, for example, the desire to find information that agrees with their existing beliefs (called confirmation bias) or the tendency to form decisions based on the most readily available information (called availability bias). People experience and seek to resolve their discomfort when they have two or more contradictory beliefs, ideas, or values and they also employ simple abstractions in thinking about complex problems and events (framing).
People are poor intuitive statisticians and care more about avoiding losses than about experiencing gains (called loss aversion). The list of flaws in human behaviour goes on. Moreover, humans, social animals that we are, compete with and emulate our peers, herd like sheep and act on rumours. 
Occasionally, all these traits and biases re-enforce each other and send the prices of houses, or shares or whatever, into the stratosphere.
Who’s afraid of a bubble?
The bubble itself is rarely a major cause for concern, although young Australian households looking to purchase their first home will disagree. The problem, of course, is that every bubble eventually pops and this correction is typically violent and painful, for two reasons. 
First, asset prices often fall faster than they rise, so the downward correction can destroy value in a very short space of time. And second, most bubbles are fuelled by debt, because the only way a bubble can expand in the later stages is if the demand for the asset is bolstered by debt.
This combination – high debt and falling asset prices – generates a vicious cycle in which distressed debtors scramble to repair their balance sheets and sell their asset. This in turn pushes the price of that asset even lower, causing further distress to similar owners of the asset, and so on.
The pain associated with a bursting bubble varies considerably. Sometimes economies rebound rather quickly from a burst bubble, as was the case after the breath-taking collapse of the dotcom bubble. 
However, housing bubbles are in a league of their own. Historically, they have always led to severe recessions, and there is no reason to believe this should change. The next time is not different.
The answers on how to deal with a bubble range from “nothing” to “whatever it takes”. The problem is that no-one (policy makers included) can reliably identify a bubble. 
If there is such a thing as a bubble, we will only know for sure when the bubble is already popping. Acting early to prevent a bubble expanding further is risky and unpopular. It’s a brave central banker who raises interest rates in anticipation of an increase in asset prices when the rest of the economy is humming along just fine, or even showing signs of weakness.
So, is Australia in the midst of a housing bubble? I will go out on a limb and answer in the affirmative. There are plenty of arguments why current house prices are exactly where they should be, based on the fundamentals.
But in my opinion these explanations do not pass the smell test: double digit increases in house prices, combined with unprecedentedly high household debt (more than 120 percent of GDP, the third highest in the world) and household debt servicing ratios (also the third highest in the world), make for a precarious situation. All it takes is a modest change in investor sentiment, a few interest rate hikes, or a noticeable increase in unemployment, and the whole scheme unravels. I hope I’m wrong, but history is on my side.
Timo Henckel is research associate, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Australian National University and author for The Conversation.
He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/timo-henckel-990" target="_blank">here.</a>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Are record-breaking real estate prices sustainable?

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Westpac chief executive Brian Hartzer has rejected speculation that there was a “housing bubble” while admitting that the market was stretched in some areas.
The CEO of the country’s second-largest bank repeated the same view he expressed before a parliamentary committee in March in an interview with The Weekend Australian ahead of the bank’s 200th anniversary.
“I would draw the distinction between a speculative bubble in prices and prices beyond what fundamentals would justify," Hartzer told the parliamentary committee.
He described the property market as “certainly complex”, with wide variations across regions, he told the newspaper. “Western Australia and Queensland are obviously having real challenges and we have some very unusual dynamics going on in the Sydney and Melbourne real estate markets.”
Hartzer said the bank did not believe there was a property bubble “in terms of people speculating on the value of properties going up and using leverage to do it”.
But he said high housing prices was more because of supply constraints than ­excessive demand, noting that “some of the fundamentals around value are looking pretty stretched in some parts of the market”. 
Westpac expects that supply issues could be solved by working with developers and state and local governments, which would reduce the pressure on the housing market and also lower “risk” over time.
Westpac recently said it was not worried by the latest note from the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority to tighten requirements for investor and interest-only loans as the bank had already taken action in the interest-only lending area.
“We have been clear in our communications around wanting an interest rate differential for ­interest-only loans to encourage people to move to principal and interest loans,” he said.
The bank recently raised variable home loan rate for owner occupiers by 0.08 percent to 5.49 percent per annum for customers with interest only loans and for investors with interest-only loans, by 0.28 percent to 5.96 percent per annum. 
Hartzer said the bank was already well below APRA’s 10 percent cap on investor lending, with its lending for investor loans at 5.9 percent of its total mortgage book at the time of its full-year ­results at the end of September last year.
He said the bank was celebrating its 200th anniversary at a time when the political system was “finely balanced” with the banks having become a “pretty convenient target” for criticism, including an opposition promising to hold a royal commission into the banking industry.
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Westpac CEO Hartzer says ‘no bubble’ in housing, but market stretched

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/75050/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
I didn’t think it was possible for there to be more focus on the Australian housing market than in 2016, but the last couple of weeks have proved me wrong.
ABS figures revealed that in the December quarter, across the eight major Australian cities, house prices rose 8.9 percent and apartment prices rose 4 percent. Those are stunning figures, particularly on the back of the huge rises of recent years.
This prompted renewed discussion about whether prices constituted a bubble. Many players weighed in, but former Liberal Party leader John Hewson put it most succinctly, saying on ABC’s Lateline:
“I think it’s a crisis, it is a bubble. I know people are hesitant in saying that, it is a bubble.”
In one sense it doesn’t really matter whether there is a housing bubble or not. Once buyers start believing there is and think it will burst, they have every incentive to wait to purchase. That dries up liquidity in the property market and sellers who need to sell are forced to take a steep discount. That justifies the buyers’ belief that prices are going to fall. And that, simply put, is how a bubble bursts.
Are we at that point yet? It’s hard to say, but given that a former Liberal Party leader, the ASIC chairperson, and the Secretary to the Treasury(among others) have said so recently, there is reason to think we might get there.
The most recent board minutes revealed the RBA was somewhat focused on housing as well. The minutes stated:
“Over recent months, conditions appeared to have strengthened in Sydney and had remained strong in Melbourne; these cities had continued to record brisk growth in housing prices, and auction clearance rates had remained high. Housing loan approvals and credit growth had picked up for investors, primarily in New South Wales and Victoria” and that this “continued to suggest that there had been a build-up of risks associated with the housing market.”
The minutes also noted a number of positive developments, from the terms of trade to the strength of our trading partners to business sentiment. The notable exception was the labour market which continued to confound understanding. The RBA noted that the key implication was that:
“Domestic wage pressures remained subdued and household income growth had been low, which, if it were to persist, would have implications for consumption growth and the risks posed by the level of household debt.”
It is difficult to assess the future path of the cash rate. The economy looks like it might be strengthening, and if business investment were finally to rebound, there would be a case for a rate rise. But with a weak labour market, a rise in rates would put the squeeze on those heavily indebted households. This could, in turn, detonate the property market. The nightmare scenario is that it has a big enough effect on bank balance sheets that they contract lending significantly, further hurting the property market.
This is the delicate tightrope the RBA is trying to walk.
The run-up in prices has put further focus on housing affordability. The Coalition have suggested they will announce a series of measures to address it in the budget. They are rumoured to be considering schemes like allowing first home buyers to access their superannuation – which is a very bad idea. It is another policy that fuels the demand side without addressing supply. I have said numerous times – including in my McKell Institute plan – that demand-side excesses such as negative gearing need to be curbed and the supply side needs to be encouraged.
The housing package might be the most interesting thing to look out for in the federal budget on May 9.
Richard Holden is professor of Economics and PLuS Alliance Fellow, UNSW and author for The Conversation.
He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-holden-118107" target="_blank">here</a>.
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If it looks like a bubble and sounds like a bubble…

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Westpac Banking Corp chief executive Brian Hartzer says the RBA faces a difficult challenge.
They had to, on the one hand, support parts of the economy with low interest rates, while avoiding a housing price bubble, he told The Australian Financial Review's Chanticleer column.
Hartzer advised he does not believe Australia is in the midst of a housing asset bubble.
He says there is no evidence in Westpac's housing lending data that investors are buying houses for a "quick flip" to another buyer.
But he says Michele Bullock's recent comments highlight the need for action by local and state governments to ease the barriers to new housing development.
He thinks there needs to be co-ordinated policy action to fill the demand supply gap.
Hartzer indicated he was not a surprise to Hartzer on why Chinese nationals would want to live in Australia and take advantage of the high quality standard of living, including the education system.
He says foreign investment has been a feature of Australia for many years and continues to support the financing of new unit developments which, in turn, helps to resolve the lack of supply in the residential market.
Hartzer thinks the capital controls in China will eventually have an impact on the amount of money being invested in the Australian housing market.
Fresh data shows foreign buyers were responsible for purchasing about 11 percent of NSW homes, with Chinese buyers accounting for 32 percent of these buyers.
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There's no housing bubble: Westpac chief Brian Hartzer

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A senior industry executive has brushed aside speculations about the risk of an Australian housing bubble, saying it is based on overseas analysis and doesn’t apply to the country's unique market.
Ray Ellis, chief executive of First National Real Estate said the Organisation for Economic Cooperation &amp; Development’s recent assertion that Australian house prices may represent a threat to the economy is similar to much of the foreign commentary we’ve heard before.
"it fails to fully appreciate the nature of our economy, how Australians invest, and where they want to live," he said.
The OECD recently warned that a potential hard landing in the property market could morph into a recession fuelled by record high household debt and the control wielded by big banks.
Its latest report cautioned that “a fall in house prices and or demand could have significant macroeconomic implications. Specifically, the market may not ease gently but develop into a rout on prices and demand with significant macroeconomic implications”.
But Ellis was of a different view. 
“Australia is the only country in the world where nearly 40 per cent of its population wants to live in two capital cities that together comprise less than 0.3 per cent of the country’s landmass,” he said. 
“Historic low interest rates have combined with overall positive economic conditions, and a national preference for housing investment over shares, to drive up house prices in Sydney and Melbourne. However, this is not the case across regional Australia and in Perth where house prices are still falling.”
First National says that unless there is a sharp increase in interest rates or a sudden rise in unemployment, the chances of a housing prices crash is low.
“Both scenarios are unlikely,” he said.
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) preference would in fact be for further cuts to official interest rates if that didn’t increase the risk of further inflating house prices. While rates will eventually have to rise, that’s clearly not the RBA’s choice while inflation remains below target and the country is not at full employment. And, with 1.1 per cent economic growth announced last week, a significant increase in unemployment is also unlikely, said the media release.
Ellis concluded that in reality, Australia has no oversupply of property, with data showing new construction approvals are trending downwards. Meanwhile, a tightening of lending standards by banks contrasts with the conditions that led to housing bubbles bursting in many countries following the Global Financial Crisis.
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OECD housing bubble warning unwarranted: First National CEO

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Commenator Alan Kohler has written that the demand for Sydney and Melbourne property is real, not speculative.
He says it was prompted by super-low interest rates, the global trend to urbanisation, the well-heeled baby-boomers downsizing to make up for inadequate superannuation and China’s capital outflow.
<div id="story-description">
The Australian columnist noted high prices in the east coast mainland cities "remain a problem because the boom turns out not to have been a bubble."
"Prices have inconveniently not fallen 30-40 per cent as predicted by the bubbleists.
</div>
"If it were a bubble there wouldn’t be a problem because ­prices would collapse, and policymakers would be dealing with the economic fallout of that event — recession and unemployment — rather than unaffordable housing.
"But regrettably it seems that the demand for Sydney and Melbourne property is real, not speculative, prompted by super-low interest rates, the global trend to urbanisation, well-heeled baby-boomers downsizing to make up for inadequate superannuation and China’s capital outflow."
He noted in the absence of a curative crash, there has been a series of well-meaning attempts to propose a solution:
1. The Labor Party’s election plan last year was to stop negative gearing for established houses and only allow deductions for new ones, but the Coalition naturally said that was the worst idea ever conceived throughout all of history. Labor lost, the Coalition won, so that’s out.
2. The Weekend Australian’s Bernard Salt suggested that millennials stop eating smashed avocado for breakfast and save more, which didn’t go down well, the counterargument being that you’d have to eat cornflakes for breakfast, lunch and dinner for 1000 years to save a deposit for a place in Sydney.
3. Barnaby Joyce has now proposed moving to Tamworth, where he lives, or even Charleville (population 3728, about 800km west of Brisbane) which also didn’t go down well.
4. This week, Scott Morrison reported back from an all-expenses-paid fact-finding mission to London that the solution is, as the Treasurer’s always suspected, more supply.
"As someone tweeted — that was money well spent, wasn’t it?"
Looking at Australian housing approvals, he noted house starts have not changed for 35 years - and the rate of apartment approvals has quadrupled.
"Last year more than 200,000 dwellings were started.
"The idea that the problem is a shortage of supply is, as Trump would say, fake news."
Kohler did warn there seems to be a glut looming, not a shortage, and bankers are getting worried about settlement risk.
He concluded the real solution was already being implemented by families, especially in Sydney and Melbourne, helping the kids buy a house. 
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Alan Kohler says there is no property bubble, just real demand

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The Reserve Bank of Australia will need the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority to reign in home lending once again, or lift interest rates, or do both to avert a dangerous housing bubble, says housing expert Louis Christopher in his newly released Christopher’s Housing Boom and Bust Report 2017.
Under one scenario house prices in Sydney could rise up to 16 percent, the other scenario shows prices could rise as high as 18 percent.
Louis Christopher, the managing director of SQM Research calculated the housing market is currently at its second most overvalued point on record and now, given a combination of factors including loose monetary policy, strong population growth and booming local economies, prices in Sydney and Melbourne will be rising from this very lofty valuation point.
SQM Research forecasts an acceleration of dwelling price rises in Sydney and Melbourne with Sydney dwelling prices forecasted to rise 11 percent to 16 percent for the 2017 calendar year, while Melbourne is forecasted to rise by 10 percent to 15 percent.
The capital city average forecast is for dwelling prices to rise 6 percent to 10 percent. 
The forecasts assume a stable interest rate environment, a stable exchange rate and no further home lending restrictions by APRA.
If lending rates are cut again by the RBA, Sydney and Melbourne prices could rise by up to 18 percent for the year as forecasted by SQM’s “Scenario 2 outlook”.
The Scenario 2 outlook has three drivers such as a 0.25 percent cut in rates during mid-2017, APRA takes 'more action' after mid-2017 and the Aussie dollar ranges between US70-80 cents.
“The end of 2017 will see both Sydney and Melbourne markets dangerously overvalued and paving the way for a possible correction in 2018,” Christopher said.
“The authorities need to take action sooner rather than later. Failure to do so will result in double digit national housing price growth in 2017 driven by out-of-control Sydney and Melbourne housing markets.
“The problem this time round is tapping on APRA’s shoulders once again could be a little more complicated as it will need to involve restricting owner occupied credit growth – something which the banks will be more reluctant to do. And given the recent announcement of the 7% interest rate servicing test, APRA may well feel reluctant to take further action.”
<a href="/images/2016/11/01/Housing%20bubble.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/11/01/Housing%20bubble.jpg" alt="">
Elsewhere in the nation, the housing market is expected to be mixed, with Perth and Darwin prices expected to fall again.
However, it is likely 2017 will be the last year of price falls generated by the mining downturn for these cities.
Behind Sydney and Melbourne, Hobart is expected to be the next fastest growing city, with Hobart dwelling prices forecasted to rise 7 percent to 12 percent.
Brisbane is forecasted to rise 3 percent to 7 percent with the market been held back by an existing oversupply situation of dwellings which is covered in detail in the report.
Meanwhile, Canberra has now entered into a slow housing recovery with prices also expected to rise 3 percent to 7 percent.
Adelaide is expected to rise a modest 2 percent to 4 percent for next year.
Louis Christopher’s Housing Boom and Bust Report this year also has a full breakdown of every postcode in the country covering current market statistics and its inaugural postcode investor ratings.
The full report can be found on <a href="https://www.sqmresearch.com.au">www.sqmresearch.com.au</a>  for $59.95.
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