There’s a quiet patch of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/hawthorn-vic-3122">Hawthorn</a>, between the bustle of Glenferrie Road and the curve of the Yarra, that rarely sees change, and even more rarely, new apartments. But that’s exactly where <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/pomeroy-pacific-quattro-corp">PQD</a> is planting Kooyongkoot: a deliberate, 18-residence answer to the question of what downsizers actually want.

“This is something this pocket of Hawthorn has never seen before,” says Fil Gacesa, head of sales at PQD. “<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/kooyongkoot-hawthorn-1-kooyongkoot-road-hawthorn-vic-3122">Kooyongkoot</a> will deliver just 18 large-scale apartments in the heart of Hawthorn. It is the true definition of resort-style living.”

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/59D7VxzltmM?si=1iCzRD7FRneKryfv" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>

That scale is central to the story. It’s what allows for two dedicated lift cores, short corridors, and a generous lightcourt that draws natural ventilation and sunlight into every residence. It’s also what makes room for the sort of amenity usually confined to high-density towers: a fully equipped wellness centre with infrared and traditional saunas, yoga and pilates studio, cold therapy shower, and treatment room. There’s a golf simulator, car and dog wash stations, and extensive storage too, not bolted on, but baked in from the start.

But more than the checklist, it’s the design intent that carries weight. “This project has been many years in the making,” says Mark Pomeroy, Director of PQD. “Not just in planning, but in listening, to what our buyers and the local community are looking for”.

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That listening shows up in the materials, oak floors, natural stone, V-ZUG appliances, and in how space is handled. Penthouses feature private rooftop terraces with pools. Terraces and garden residences embrace outdoor connection. Inside, the layouts skew large and open, geared for hosting, not just housing.

Architecturally, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a>’s approach is grounded. There’s no reaching for spectacle here. Instead, the building offers a sculptural calm, anchored by landscaping from Eckersley Garden Architecture.&nbsp;

“We wanted to create spaces that feel expansive, serene, and meaningfully connected to daily life,” said founding partner Chris Stribley elsewhere.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355304]

That sentiment, calm, connection, echoes in the location itself. Kooyongkoot sits just a short stroll from Central Gardens, Fairview Park, and the Rivoli Cinema. Tram lines and schools are close, but the street is tucked, quiet, and leaf-lined.&nbsp;

“Residents of Kooyongkoot will be a short stroll from Fairview Park, Central Gardens, and the Glenferrie Road retail strip," Gacesa notes, "but you're also cocooned in this peaceful pocket behind extensive landscaping by Eckersley Garden Architecture.”

Kooyongkoot is set for completion in late 2026.

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Staff Writer

The project that said no to compromise: Inside Kooyongkoot, Hawthorn

When long-time Ivanhoe locals Graeme and Catherine, decided it was time to downsize, they weren’t necessarily in a rush.&nbsp;

Like many in their stage of life, they had started thinking about apartment living, but anticipated making the shift in two to three years.

That timeline changed when they visited <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/new-apartments/candela-ivanhoe-40-upper-heidelberg-road-ivanhoe">Candela</a>, a new boutique development by <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/developers/salter-brothers">Salter Brothers</a>. The project ticked all the boxes they were looking for: location, quality design, and long-term lifestyle benefits, which prompted them to bring their decision forward.

“It was the right place at the right time,” they said. “We knew immediately it ticked all the boxes, and we didn’t want to wait.”

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Their decision to downsize was driven by a combination of practical needs and lifestyle considerations. Their existing home, while much loved, had become increasingly difficult to maintain. It spanned multiple levels, included extensive front and back gardens, and was starting to show the wear that comes with age.&nbsp;

They were looking for a more manageable lifestyle, one with less upkeep and more freedom. A brand-new apartment with no maintenance requirements and the ability to simply “lock up and leave” gave them peace of mind and a greater sense of control over their future.

Financially, the purchase made sense as well. The available stamp duty savings, strong price-to-value offering, and timing of the settlement suited their plans, making the transition smoother and more cost-effective. The apartment's design and inclusions further supported their choice.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=342 project_image_fid=357493]

The layout was both functional and flexible: three bedrooms, a butler’s pantry, a separate laundry, and a large open-plan living area. It gave them the freedom to host a family, accommodate guests, or set up a home office. The expansive balcony and elevated views added to the appeal, providing a sense of openness and connection to the outdoors.

“It just had a really good flow,” Catherine noted, something they found lacking in many other apartments they’d considered, particularly in the established market.

Candela’s boutique scale was another deciding factor. With a smaller number of residences and a top-floor penthouse position, the couple felt the development offered the privacy and space they were looking for, without feeling isolated.

“We liked that it wasn’t a huge development. It felt well-balanced, modern but still with a sense of community, not overwhelming,” they said.

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Equally important was the ability to remain in Ivanhoe, a suburb they know well and have deep roots in. After 46 years in the area, proximity to local parks, shops, and familiar faces mattered just as much as the apartment itself.

“We didn’t want to give up the community we’ve known for decades. Candela allowed us to upgrade our lifestyle while staying in the place we call home.”

With a Walk Score of 90, the village location supports a convenient, connected lifestyle. <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/ivanhoe-vic-3079">Ivanhoe</a> Station is just a eight-minute walk away, and the neighbourhood offers access to parks, cafes, restaurants, and schools along Upper Heidelberg Road, all within easy reach.

Beyond the apartment, the couple also saw value in the broader vision for Candela, one that integrates residential living with public spaces and local amenities.&nbsp;

The development introduces 58 new apartments as well as a mix of commercial and social spaces that integrate contemporary architecture with the suburb’s existing character.&nbsp;

At ground level, residents will find a charming café and a lifestyle wellness centre, perfect for unwinding and rejuvenating. Meanwhile, the rooftop garden offers a stunning vantage point for residents to enjoy breathtaking sunsets, host gatherings, or enjoy barbecues with family and friends. It's not just a place to live; it's a vibrant community where every moment is an opportunity to connect and create lasting memories.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=342]

Why Ivanhoe locals are choosing to downsize to Candela

Mark and Roy Makari are expanding their presence in Sydney’s South West with a second major proposal for Leppington, this time envisioning a 900-dwelling mixed-use development just 850 metres from their previously lodged tower trio on Fifth Avenue.

Project management and construction management firm Creative Vision filed the plans for the&nbsp;multi-building project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/230-rickard-road-leppington-nsw-2179">230 Rickard Road, Leppington</a>. The proposal seeks to establish a new focal point for the precinct through a high-density, transit-oriented development supported by diverse land uses.

According to the Scoping Report prepared for the Department of Planning, the scheme includes around 900 apartments across multiple towers, including 135 dwellings designated for affordable housing. A mix of market and subsidised apartments will be supported by ground-level activation through retail and office space, a childcare centre, and a hotel, forming a comprehensive urban precinct.

<img alt="Mixed Use Development 230 Rickard Rd Leppington" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="34797362-f3dc-4d84-8235-2657fc5f3bde" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Plan.png?VersionId=Uzckrz9tUpDQl5lX1_WMhjnv16bsr8wG" />

The Design Report by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/studiosc-0">Studio SC</a> notes that the project “intends to deliver a high-quality, high-density built form that supports the vision for the Leppington Town Centre, integrating mixed-use outcomes and public domain upgrades.” The development is expected to be delivered in stages, although a precise timeline is yet to be confirmed.

The project will be assessed through a future State Significant Development Application, with the Scoping Report indicating the team will seek design excellence via a competitive process or through an expert design review panel. Early massing diagrams suggest a series of mid- to high-rise buildings framing a central landscaped spine, with emphasis on pedestrian permeability and public space.

The planning documentation flags a strong sustainability agenda, stating that the development will “respond to the urban heat island effect, incorporate water sensitive urban design, and prioritise active transport”.

<img alt="Mixed Use Development 230 Rickard Rd Leppington" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="369d7b54-1279-4cde-88ec-dcb215594414" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Podium_1.png?VersionId=QArL7B2kkLt63vl5xvL0FNV_ardAlez4" />

The proposal follows in the footsteps of the Makaris’ nearby Fifth Avenue site, where they’ve submitted plans for three towers comprising nearly 500 apartments, with 10 per cent dedicated to affordable housing. That project features commercial podiums, a childcare centre, and a new public park that would occupy more than a third of the site.

Both developments are situated within walking distance of Leppington Train Station and fall under strategic precinct plans promoting higher density housing. The town centre is undergoing substantial transformation, driven by state government planning reforms aimed at fast-tracking housing delivery.

Together, the two projects represent a combined ambition of nearly 1,400 new homes across just under two kilometres of central Leppington.

First look: 900-home mixed-use precinct planned for Leppington

Leading Australian integrated property development group, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/aqualand-australia">Aqualand</a>, has released the signature penthouses crowning its landmark AURA by Aqualand precinct at 168 Walker Street in North Sydney, unveiling Il Magnate and La Divina as the largest and most luxurious penthouses in the suburb.

With prices anticipated to commence from $15 million, and each accompanied by a new Porsche Carrera 911 valued at over $500K, the residences mark the culmination of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/aura-by-aqualand-north-sydney-168-walker-street-north-sydney-nsw-2060">AURA by Aqualand</a>’s decade-long journey and the beginning of its final sales chapter. 
&nbsp; 
Their release follows more than $850 million in record-breaking residential sales and the building’s completion and occupation.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=30959 project_image_fid=358868]

The Richards Stanisich-designed 284 sqm Il Magnate and 224 sqm La Divina penthouses, collectively known as The Icons of AURA, are conceived as grand luxury homes rather than apartments, with expansive proportions, elevated materiality and curated identities that reflect their status as one-off residences.&nbsp;

Il Magnate features a grande master suite, complete with substantial walk-in dressing area and ensuite, three other bedrooms, second ensuite and another bathroom, powder room, open plan kitchen, scullery, substantial dining area and generous living room divided by a feature fireplace, and a multifunction wintergarden, which is ideal for a study and adjoining office breakout space. &nbsp;

Meanwhile, the La Divina residence offers the same amenities, sans the powder room, on a slightly smaller alternate floor plan configuration.

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Each occupies half of AURA by Aqualand’s topmost 28th level, comes with four secure car spaces and pairs sweeping Sydney Harbour panoramas with large-scale living spaces, refined detailing and a level of craftsmanship and amenity rarely offered in the North Shore market.&nbsp;

Penthouse residents will also receive Etymon’s ‘Black Key’ private concierge and lifestyle management service, an invitation only offering providing the ultimate in bespoke personalisation, including a range of everyday discrete services, from dinner party management, grocery deliveries, pet feeding or plants watered, dinners, snacks and coffee deliveries, event ticket sourcing, right up to organising travel visas and international airfares. Rarely seen in Australian properties, the service provides residents the benefits of living in a world-class luxury hotel-style home, akin to The Ritz, or the Waldorf Astoria.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=30959 project_image_fid=358862]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/richards-stanisich">Richards Stanisich</a>’s Director, Kirsten Stanisich, said the studio set out to craft residences that feel profoundly considered, contemporary and deeply connected to their setting.

“From the outset, we approached these penthouses with the sensibility of a grand Parisian residence - generous in scale, elegant in proportion and designed to feel more like a handcrafted home than an apartment," Stanisich said.

“Their elevated position and sweeping harbour outlook informed every decision, creating a rare connection between urban sophistication and natural calm. We shaped each space with expressive materiality, sculptural forms and bespoke detailing that invite touch and interaction.&nbsp;

“The result is a pair of residences defined by volume, light and an inherent softness - refined, flexible and deeply personal. These penthouses are unlike anything else in North Sydney, offering a sanctuary of true luxury framed by some of the city’s most remarkable views.”

For Aqualand’s Head of Sales &amp; Marketing, Alex Adams, the collaboration with Porsche underscores the shared ethos behind the residences.

“Aqualand’s collaboration with Porsche underpins both brand’s sharing an obsession with craftsmanship, design excellence, and enduring value," Adams said.

“Our penthouses are created for those who appreciate the finer details and expect the extraordinary at every touchpoint. Including a Porsche simply extends that experience beyond the residence - it’s a continuation of the lifestyle our buyers already live.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=30959 project_image_fid=292862]

Aqualand’s Managing Director, Jin Lin, said the penthouses represent both the pinnacle of AURA by Aqualand and an important design benchmark for the company’s future pipeline.&nbsp;

“These stunning penthouses reflect the purest expression of Aqualand’s design ambition," Lin said.

“The unparalleled design intent makes them not only the glistening crown of AURA by Aqualand, but the crown of North Sydney itself. They’re essentially a thank you gift to a burgeoning community that deserves this level of quality and architectural consideration.&nbsp;

“We’re leveraging the unrivalled standard set here as the foundation for what comes next, including our upcoming Anderson Street, Chatswood; 15 Blue Street, North Sydney and Central Barangaroo projects. Purchasers of these penthouses will essentially be living inside the blueprint of Aqualand’s future.

“These landmark residences demonstrate how far North Sydney has evolved and the strength of demand for highly curated, bespoke luxury homes. They’re more than penthouses, they’re legacy residences.&nbsp;

“With AURA by Aqualand now a thriving new precinct with residents well and truly settled, and our in-house world-class lifestyle amenity activated, Il Magnate and La Divina represent a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to secure an extraordinary piece of North Sydney’s future.”

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Joel Robinson

Aqualand launches North Sydney penthouses with free Porsche Carrera 911

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/bokarina-qld-4575">Bokarina</a> Beach has quietly evolved into one of the Sunshine Coast’s most complete coastal lifestyle precincts, defined not just by proximity to the ocean, but by how residential living, local retail and everyday amenity are stitched together.&nbsp;

Gardner Vaughan Group’s <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bask-bokarina-38-bokarina-boulevard-bokarina-qld-4575">Bask Bokarina</a> now represents the final residential chapter in that transformation.

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Over recent years, the Bokarina Beach precinct has taken shape as a walkable, community-oriented neighbourhood, anchored by beachfront access, Lake Kawana to the west, and a growing mix of cafés, specialty retail and public open space.&nbsp;

With Zinc Bokarina already delivered next door by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gardner-vaughan-group">Gardner Vaughan Group</a> (GVG), Bask is the last opportunity to buy a brand new apartment within the precinct, effectively rounding out a fully formed coastal village.

GVG has positioned Bask to strengthen that lifestyle framework. Ten ground-floor retail spaces are planned beneath the residences, extending Bokarina Boulevard’s existing activity and reinforcing the area’s everyday convenience, from casual dining and coffee to local services, within a short walk of the beach.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=141609 project_image_fid=333359]

The residential component comprises 135 apartments across two buildings, Mydas and Caretta, with a clear shift toward larger three- and four-bedroom layouts and penthouses. That mix reflects a maturing buyer profile in Bokarina, where demand is increasingly led by owner-occupiers and active downsizers seeking space, permanence, and connection to place rather than short-term coastal accommodation.

Design and amenity have followed the same logic. Residents will have access to a heated plunge pool, gym, private dining room with a full kitchen, landscaped communal gardens with barbecues and a firepit, and a shared herb and vegetable garden, facilities intended to support daily use rather than resort-style turnover. Pet-friendly features, including a dog wash bay, acknowledge both buyer expectations and the area’s dog-friendly beach, located around 250 metres from the site.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=141609 project_image_fid=333366]

“Bokarina has become one of the Sunshine Coast’s most desirable beachside communities, and Bask represents the very last chance to buy new in this location,” GVG Director Sam Gardner said.&nbsp;

“Our focus has been to create spacious, functional apartments that meet the needs of locals who want to downsize without compromise, as well as those seeking a full-time coastal retreat.”

Positioned between the Pacific Ocean and Lake Kawana, Bask apartments have been oriented to capture outlooks toward the water or the Glass House Mountains, reinforcing the project’s connection to its natural surroundings. With parks, beachfront paths, hospitals, retail and public transport already in place, Bask arrives at a point where the broader precinct is no longer emerging, but established.

Construction is expected to complete in Q3 this year, with apartments ready to move into this Spring.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=141609]

Bask to complete Bokarina’s Sunshine Coast lifestyle precinct as final apartments are released

Housing Bubble

&nbsp;Australia&rsquo;s housing market is experiencing a peak growth rate, but experts say the current boom won&rsquo;t last forever.&nbsp;

In this month&rsquo;s Finder RBA Cash Rate Survey&trade;, 40 experts and economists weighed in on future cash rate moves and other issues relating to the state of the economy.&nbsp;

While all experts surveyed predict the cash rate to hold, nearly half of those who weighed in on property prices (47%, 16/34) believe Australia&rsquo;s current house price growth is unsustainable.

Property market growth surged at its fastest rate in 33 years in March, with national dwelling values also increasing by 6.2% over the past year according to CoreLogic.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6690 project_image_fid=27326]

Graham Cooke, head of consumer research at Finder, said that some experts are concerned a housing bubble is emerging.

&ldquo;Rock-bottom rates, government stimulus and a fear of missing out have really lit a fire under the belly of the market.&quot;

&ldquo;Listing numbers are unable to meet high buyer demand, keeping inventory levels low overall and adding to the sense of urgency among buyers. &quot;

&ldquo;We&rsquo;ve seen more borrowed for housing over the last six months than during any similar period in history &ndash; and economists have tipped us to borrow more over the next six.&quot;

&ldquo;It&rsquo;s unlikely we&#39;ll see any regulatory intervention from policymakers yet, but this might be a possibility down the track,&rdquo; Cooke said.&nbsp;

According to Mala Raghavan of the University of Tasmania, buyers may put themselves at risk by acting too hastily.&nbsp;

&ldquo;The recent uptick in buying behaviour largely appears to be due to the fear of missing out, and many buyers are rushing into the market without clear foresight of the impending risks.&quot;

&ldquo;When mortgage rates start rising, many households will risk being unable to service their loans, and could be vulnerable to foreclosures,&rdquo; she said.&nbsp;

Graham Cooke, head of consumer research at Finder, said that some experts are concerned a housing bubble is emerging

jordan_55689

1 in 2 experts say recent house price growth is “unsustainable”: Finder

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Sydney home owners can feel confident that their property values will hold up amid the gradual wind-down of the price boom.
There are two reasons. One is that economists are predicting values will fall. Given their track record of getting it wrong on real estate, we can be fairly sure values won’t decline.
The other reason is the historic precedent. Sydney has had big price booms before and when the bull run ended, there was no decline in values. Prices simply stopped growing.
I fully agree with the growing list of pundits calling the end to Sydney’s boom. I’ve been writing about it for the past 5-6 months.
On 21 May I wrote in this column: “It was inevitable that Sydney would run out of puff eventually and the most likely time for it to happen was in the third year of price growth – which means some time this year. It’s rare for major markets to sustain a boom for any longer than that. 
“I’ve just finished the research for the latest edition of The Price Predictor Index, examining market activity in suburbs and towns across the nation, and it indicates Sydney has begun a gradual fade.”
That view was subsequently confirmed by sales figures for the June Quarter, which continued the pattern seen in the March Quarter figures. It’s clear now that, in terms of sales activity, Sydney peaked in the December Quarter last year and has been on a gradual fade ever since.
But does this mean prices will collapse? Not if 2004 is any guide.
The preceding 2-3 years represent the last time Australia had a genuine national property boom. In 2002, six of the eight capital cities recorded double-digit growth in median house prices, including three (Sydney, Brisbane and Adelaide) where prices grew more than 20%. The national average rise was 18%, double the average rise in the past 12 months.
The following year was even more prolific. In 2003, all eight capital cities recorded growth of at least 13%. Five of capital cities grew more than 20% and the city average that year was a 19% rise.
The past 12 months, in comparison to those stellar years, have been rather tame, with only Sydney recording double-digit growth (although some research sources have Melbourne nudging above 10%). Media hysteria suggesting we have been in the midst of an unprecedented national boom lately is quite ludicrous when we consider the 2002-2003 scenario.
 The bottom line, however, is this: by 2004 the boom had run out of steam. Economists, journalists and other pontificators were routinely predicting a collapse in prices. But it didn’t happen. The growth subsided but there was no price decline.
Earlier this year I conducted a research exercise for a client, examining media coverage of real estate since the beginning of the 21st Century and comparing it to actual outcomes.
This revealed that reports of bubbles, unsustainably high property values and inevitable price collapse have occurred constantly in Australian media over the past 15 years.
Every economist complaining that property prices should fall because they don’t comply with their theory about where prices should be has been given airplay.
Every overseas spruiker seeking to drum up attention for a book launch or a seminar tour has gained massive publicity by forecasting that our property values were about to decline 40%, 50% or 60%. One was silly enough to predict a 90% drop in land values and media was silly enough to publish it.
None of them was right. Despite that relentless production line of doomsday headlines stretching across 15 years, there has been no Armageddon in Australian real estate.
So, now the chattering economists are at it again. No matter how many times they get it wrong on real estate, they will continue to step up for another bout of false profiteering. 
The boffins at Macquarie Bank have rolled out some very specific forecasts about something they call “Australian property prices”. They’re going to start falling in March next year. And the decline won’t be 5% or 6% or somewhere in the band from 5-10%, it will be exactly and precisely 7.5%.
Will they be proven accurate? Not a chance.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

The end is nigh for Sydney's property boom: Terry Ryder

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There is little doubt the Sydney auction market has started out a lot better in February, than it finished off last December.
At this stage, four weeks in, the positivity has been more evident from the auction clearance rate being on the rise, than prices making any advances.
February typically suffers none of the inbuilt end of year fatigue. Saturday's preliminary clearance sat at over 70 percent.
You never know, but prices could spurt again, especially if our fresh stock levels stay low after the upcoming early Easter break, and the banks begin to ease up on their lending.
It would not be a second wind for prices, because we've already seen that many times, just when the market seemed destined to head backwards.
Sydney is highly resilient when it comes to property price momentum, often catching forecasters out of step.
I was thinking of the contributing mix, intrinsic and not so, when I popped a few questions to Harry Dent, one of the world’s most controversial economic futurists.
He is currently touring Australia. Last time he toured in 2014, Dent's worst case scenario was for a post-China bubble burst impacting on Sydney with property prices possibly set to collapse by as much as 60 percent.
His controversial forecasts were labelled as scaremongering by many commentators including Chris Joye.
Dent's earlier 2011 crash forecast also saw the founder of wealth manager Yellow Brick Road Mark Bouris counter the claims. 
In 2011 on David Koch’s Sunrise program, Dent urged viewers to sell their homes before the 50 percent crash in prices arrived at their doorsteps after a China crash hits our shores.
He will be pursuing the same message this time around.
I told Dent that dwelling prices in Sydney now sit at around a $895,000 median, up from $610,000 in early 2014.
The median represents a significant 46 percent rise since Dent's last warning, and an 80 percent rise since his 2011 warning.
Pressed by me, Dent admits he was wrong through he sticks to the yet-to-occur outcome, merely adjusting the timing of his dire forecast.
"I was wrong, how about that," he said.
"I'm early."
Australia will burst whenever the China bubble bursts, he says.
Dent warns many won't see it coming, and adds that real estate, unlike the stockmarket, won't have any easy escape route, and its recovery will take much longer.
"This is not a normal bubble," he suggests noting the global real estate bubble had extended well beyond typical lengths.
He argues the global bubble has been caused by central banks printing money, not just low interest rates.
Dent says suggests central banks can't keep printing money for ever.
"What's not different is by every measure, is these are bubbles.
"Chinese real estate is a bubble.
"The Sydney real estate is a bubble." 
"Better to get out a little early," he will be telling his 2018 audiences.
This article was first published in the Saturday Daily Telegraph
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Harry Dent says he was early with his dire Sydney price collapse forecast

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Australian residential prices remained “40% overvalued” and the bubble is yet to burst, the international doomsday commentator Harry Dent has claimed.
Australia was going to lead the next global bust, he said.
Dent forecast “Australian prices would fall 50%” in the next downturn and he ranks Australia as the third most overpriced market in the world, coming in behind Hong Kong and China.
“Don’t take the ‘oh, we had a little crash and it’s over, time to buy again because we don’t want to miss out’,” Dent said.
“Real estate, mark my words, will in five, 10 or 15 years time never be better than this. The best cities, Sydney and Melbourne, are going to go down more than say Adelaide. Rich people will lose the most money,” he tipped.
Dent again claimed that Australians’ exposure to a weakening Chinese economy would be the primary trigger of the downturn.
“It’s going to be more pervasive,” he said ahead of his seminar tour to Sydney next month.
He said while Australia escaped the worst of the global financial crisis, it would not avoid the next global downturn, which would be worse than the 1929 depression.
Dent says the recent Reserve Bank of Australia rate cuts would only exacerbate the looming correction.
“Maybe we’re over-forecasting this, that’s possible, but there’s not much upside in real estate anywhere in the world left after a bubble this size,” Dent added.
“Your great Australian real estate bubble is going to burst … maybe I am wrong, maybe it’s 30 or 40%.
“But there’s no way real estate is going to go up much further … and there will be no soft landing,” he said.
When Dent was on his 2016 tour he forecast a 50% fall. However, Sydney prices rose by 75% after that forecast, followed by a 15% decline over the past two years. Dent gave his latest forecast to Martin North at Digital Finance Analytics, who noted that debt is higher than it’s ever been.
“Yet the Reserve Bank here is basically encouraging people to get into the market now to try and support the economy,” North said.
Dent’s latest doomsday claims have been slammed by mainstream property analysts.
“He has never been correct on the Australian housing market,” the boss of SQM Research Louis Christopher said yesterday.
“I am concerned for people who get hoodwinked into his seminars,” Christopher added.
Property economist Dr Andrew Wilson said Dent was a “discredited doomsayer”.
Wilson said that the bubble collapse claims were “click-bait”.
“And, as usual, outrageous predictions of steep and sustained house price declines will prove to be so much nonsense — as has clearly again been the case this year,” he said.
“With the prospect now of a lengthy period of relative certainty and predictability ahead, buyers and sellers will increasingly ignore the snake-oil salesmen and take advantage of the ongoing benefits of home ownership and investment,” Wilson said.
This article first appeared in The Sunday Telegraph. 
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Harry Dent is back predicting property prices will "fall 50%"

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EXPERT OBSERVER
There are two things that can happen to an asset price bubble. It can burst dramatically, or deflate slowly.
Which brings us to the Australian housing market.
Prices in Sydney and Melbourne continue to decline at a modest rate. The <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/research/monthly-indices" target="_blank">CoreLogic index</a> has Sydney prices down 6.1% for the last 12 months, and Melbourne down 3.4%.
This barely dents the huge increases in previous years and is consistent with “deflate slowly” scenario.
What could cause a pop?
<h2>Interest-only loans could do it</h2>
As I have <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-if-it-looks-like-a-bubble-and-sounds-like-a-bubble-75050" target="_blank">said here before</a>, one of the worries is interest-only loans.
Around A$360 billion of these loans are due to be rolled over over the next three years. If they are not, they will convert to principal-and-interest loans, which are much more expensive to maintain.
Given that only about 15% of loans currently issued are interest-only, down from 40% in recent times, that means a lot of people are starting to pay the more expensive principal and interest. For some, the jump in repayments will be as high as 40%.
That’s scary enough. But <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-minutes/2018/2018-10-02" target="_blank">this week’s minutes of the October Reserve Bank board</a> meeting point to another concerning possibility – an old-fashioned credit crunch.
The bank put it this way:
Members discussed the release of the interim report of the Royal Commission into Misconduct in the Banking, Superannuation and Financial Services Industry… Members observed that while the regulators had already overseen a tightening of lending standards, and a degree of tightening of lending standards had been implemented by banks in anticipation of the Commission’s findings, it was possible that banks could tighten lending conditions further given the issues raised in the report. Members noted that it would be important to monitor the future supply of credit to ensure that economic activity continued to be appropriately supported.
Translation: the banks have stopped lending as much, and might lend even less; this could be bad for the economy.
Could it blow up the housing market?
Well, possibly. Here’s how.
<h2>Here’s how it would happen</h2>
If the amount of housing credit available is significantly reduced, it is hard for people to buy properties.
That means it becomes hard for people to sell – or even move from one property to another. A market with fewer buyers and sellers in it (what economists call a “thin market”) means more volatile prices.
This turns the price someone gets from selling a property into more of a lottery. There’s a decent chance the seller gets much less than she thought.
Worse still, most people are highly leveraged in residential property – often putting down a deposit of just 10% to 20%.
<h2>Owners would get hit rather than their banks</h2>
All the drop in the selling price hits the owner, because the bank gets paid back no matter what.
So a 10% drop in price can wipe out all the seller’s equity in the property.
Even if the owner has paid down, say, half the loan, that’s a big hit.
It’s the prospect of this that causes people not to want to sell. If an owner can hold on, they will.
So which properties end up on the market? Precisely those of the people who really need to sell.
<h2>They would sell because they had to</h2>
Knowing this, and without much competition, buyers turn the screws, pushing down prices still further and exacerbating the problem.
Of course, for that to happen people need to sell.
Why might that be? There are are number of reasons. Their repayments could rise because of rates rising. Even without an official rise in the cash rate by the RBA, banks can, and recently have, raised rates because of their funding costs in money markets.
A borrower might need to change cities because of their job, or might lose their job and be unable to meet repayments. Or a borrower might have an unexpected expense, perhaps relating to health care. The list goes on.
<h2>We can’t be sure it won’t happen</h2>
It is hard to predict whether any of those things will happen to people in sufficient numbers to cause a meltdown.
But that’s the whole point – it is hard to be confident that it won’t happen.
And if it does occur then the consequences could be huge.
<h2>Game theory suggests it might</h2>
It might seem perverse that the big four banks could voluntarily cut back on lending and cause a collapse in prices that craters their own loan books. Yet that’s exactly the lesson from the work of <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/1994/press-release/">John Nash</a>, who won the 1994 Nobel Prize in economics for his work on game theory. In a strategic setting, what is best for the individual might not be best for the group.
If individual banks don’t cut back their lending but others do, they will get stuck with the worst loans.
Avoiding that fate might mean creating market conditions that hurt all existing loans.
It’s the paradox at the heart of game theory.
<h2>But I’m hoping for the best</h2>
I’m still betting on the residential property market deflating slowly, rather than popping.
But unfortunately you don’t need to get too creative to imagine scenarios that involve a very loud pop – for property owners, the banks and the economy more generally.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/105137/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-holden-118107" target="_blank">Richard Holden</a>, Professor of Economics and PLuS Alliance Fellow, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414" target="_blank">UNSW</a>
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-the-housing-market-might-deflate-but-it-might-pop-heres-how-105137" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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How the housing market might pop: Richard Holden

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Neither the Sydney nor Melbourne property market is going to crash, veteran estate agent John McGrath has blogged.
"There are too many fundamentals holding prices up, such as the undersupply, high population growth largely due to migration, very low interest rates, low unemployment and a strong economy," he told investor readers on the Switzer website.
But he agreed the cities were "seeing prices paring back."
He indicated just how far prices will fall "is a hard question to answer with any real accuracy," but added it was reasonable to rely on history for an indication of how low prices might go.
He cited recent research showing Australia has had six previous episodes of declining housing prices since 1980, with the peak-to-trough range of 2.5 percent to 8 percent.
McGrath cited the buying urgency has gone, competition was weaker, "there’s more homes for sale and much less risk of paying a premium at auction.
"We’re getting back to normal market conditions," he said adding it was good because market corrections prevent bubbles.
"We want a period of consolidation now to cement in the significant price gains of the boom.... Sydney house prices were up 67% and Melbourne house prices were up 40% since mid-2012 when the growth cycle began.
"So, even if they fall by 8%-10% or more, most home owners shouldn’t be concerned by this. 
"At the end of the day, the gains made during the boom will far outweigh any price falls we experience now," he said.
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Sydney and Melbourne property markets won't crash in 2018: John McGrath

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<h1>Vital Signs: five economic red flags to watch for in 2018</h1>
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/196084/original/file-20171123-6072-13xyzhk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="File 20171123 6072 13xyzhk.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1">
We don’t know for sure if any of these things could happen, but if they do we’re in for a wild ride in 2018. Image sourced from shutterstock.com <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-holden-118107" target="_blank">Richard Holden</a>, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414" target="_blank">UNSW</a>
Vital Signs is a weekly economic wrap from UNSW economics professor and Harvard PhD Richard Holden (@profholden). Vital Signs aims to contextualise weekly economic events and cut through the noise of the data affecting global economies.
This week: A break from weekly data to look forward to the year ahead.
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With a data-light week, and the end of 2017 looming, this is a good time to touch on five issues to watch out for in 2018.
<h2>1. Trump loses patience with NAFTA</h2>
US President Donald Trump has made clear his contempt for a variety of international agreements to which the US is a signatory. The North American Free Trade Agreement is certainly one of them. 2018 could be the time when Trump engineers either a renegotiation of NAFTA, or (scarily) a US exit from it.
Right now, the administration is trying to extract concessions from China and Mexico on the deal, and has set a March 2018 deadline for an agreement.
A US exit from NAFTA would be calamatous. The three economies have become heavily integrated since NAFTA began, and it’s almost hard to imagine what the US economy would look like without, for example, cheap goods and agricultural produce from Mexico.
<h2>2. We find out Australia had a housing bubble, because it bursts</h2>
Is there a bubble in the Australian housing market? I have consistently said that I don’t know, and I wouldn’t know how to prove it even if there was. But there are some troubling markers, including investment bank <a href="https://neo.ubs.com/shared/d1QtAq68bSw15m/?off_id=AC201709E304806129W1757731499&amp;ma=X47535154596E5669&amp;camp_id=EM%3AUNKW%3A2017-09%3A10%3AC" target="_blank">UBS’s report</a> warning about the potentially large number of so-called <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-liar-loans-undermine-sound-lending-practices-87073" target="_blank">“liar loans”</a>.
I’ll add one more marker that I haven’t heard discussed before. <a href="https://thejollyswagmen.com/new-blog/2017/11/15/28-liar-loans-peter-white" target="_blank">A respected mortgage industry insider said</a> the data in the UBS report doesn’t make sense, and that mortgage brokers aren’t encouraging people to falsify loan applications. But the same expert said any instances of bad behaviour are isolated, that statistics aren’t facts, and he rejected the idea that incentive payments to brokers encourage them to push bigger loans to borrowers. Basically, “believe me!”
2018 should give us a pretty good read on whether there will be a slow deflation of Sydney and Melbourne property prices (at least in real terms), or whether there will be an abrupt reduction in prices, a series of fire sales, and trouble for the banks. I think the balance of evidence now suggests the latter.
<h2>3. There’s a ‘take back’ of the Brexit vote</h2>
The UK will continue to negotiate its exit from the European Union, and 2018 will be both important and consequential. There is a very specific timeline for the UK’s exit – 11pm GMT, Friday March 29, 2019 to be exact.
The four big issues are: (i) what the UK owes the EU financially, (ii) the Northern Ireland border, (iii) what happens to UK citizens living in the EU, and EU citizens living in the UK, and (iv) the biggest of all – trade.
Theresa May – when not defending inappropriate behaviour from her male colleagues, or falling for sophomoric pranks when speaking in public – is sticking to her “hard Brexit” line. 2018 will show whether this is even vaguely possible. I strongly suspect not – and there are a whole host of interesting things that could happen.
One, May could easily lose the prime ministership. Two, there could end up being another vote to “take back” the Brexit vote. If you think that’s crazy then <a href="http://podcast.cnn.com/the-axe-files-david-axelrod/episode/all/1TFnFglOwOT80L/f3h850">listen to Tony Blair</a> discussing how it could happen.
All of this could cause major upheaval in financial markets. London remains a fundamentally important international capital market.
<h2>4. US financial regulation softens</h2>
Janet Yellen’s departure as US Federal Reserve Chair in February, and her replacement by Jay Powell, is unlikely to materially alter US monetary policy. Expect gradual rate rises throughout 2018.
What could differ – and not in a good way – is the Fed’s stance on financial regulation. Powell is thought to be more hostile to Dodd-Frank (as the regulatory response to the Great Recession is known) than Yellen. 2018 will be revealing in this regard, because the Trump White House is known to despise those regulations and there could be a concerted effort to remove them using whatever means available.
This would be dangerous and foolish, and lay the groundwork for the next financial crisis.
<h2>5. The European experiment fails</h2>
With a wave of populist sentiment across Europe, and German Chancellor Angela Merkel having a hard time forming a coalition, there is the slim but scary prospect of the EU essentially disintegrating. This could be the result of a sovereign default by a major country like Italy or Spain, that is too big to bail out. Or it could come from a German government that is no longer willing to support the European Central Bank the way it has to date.
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/87851/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">It could well be that none of the worrying scenarios outlined above actually occur. But any number of implicit and explicit deadlines make 2018 look like a more eventful year than most.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-holden-118107" target="_blank">Richard Holden</a>, Professor of Economics and PLuS Alliance Fellow, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414" target="_blank">UNSW</a>
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-five-economic-red-flags-to-watch-for-in-2018-87851" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Australia's troubling housing bubble markers rank among the five economic red flags for 2018: Richard Holden

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Despite the surge in prices in Sydney and Melbourne and the high indebtedness of Australian households, Aberdeen Asset Management said there was no housing bubble.
They initially said there was no housing bubble in 2015 and re-affirmed this view in a new research paper.
It was written by its Asia Pacific head of property research, Milan Khatri.
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"We don't believe that the Australian housing market is in a bubble, " Mr Khatri wrote.
"The usual features of bubble-type behaviour such as broad synchronisation of price gains across a country, lax bank lending policies, reduced scrutiny of end-buyers, and indiscriminate investor buying, mostly appear missing.
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<div>"Moreover, while housing supply is high by historic standards it is far from being excessive, and appears to have already peaked.</div>
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<div>"Certainly there may be pockets of the market where the dangers of oversupply are a real threat – such as CBD apartments – but any weakness is likely to be short-term in nature as new supply eventually falls back," he said.</div>
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<div>However Aberdeen does view house prices as being broadly overvalued close to 10 per cent with "low interest rates no doubt help[ing] to support current valuations".</div>
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The Fairfax Media report noted Khatri said Aberdeen did not believe the Australian market was overheated in the same way that markets like the US, Ireland and Spain were prior to the global financial crisis.
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Among the features that differentiated it from these markets were measures by authorities to prevent excessive lending on "loose terms"  through the restriction of high-risk loans like interest-only loans and reducing the pace of growth in investor lending to 10 per cent per annum.
He added that big price gains in Sydney and Melbourne reflected housing demand running ahead of supply while in other markets where price growth has been less pronounced supply and demand have been more in balance "with the exception of Brisbane".
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Pockets of dangerous oversupply, but no housing bubble: Aberdeen

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A common narrative on the Australian housing market is that it’s in a giant speculative bubble propelled by tax breaks, low interest rates and “liar loans” that have led to massive mortgage stress and that it’s all about to go bust, bringing down the banks and the economy with it. Recent signs of price falls – notably in Sydney – have added interest to such a view.
The trouble is we have been hearing the same for years. Calls for a property crash have been pumped out repeatedly since early last decade. In 2004, The Economist magazine described Australia as “America’s ugly sister” thanks in part to a “borrowing binge” and soaring property prices. At the time, the OECD estimated Australian housing was 51.8% overvalued. Property crash calls were wheeled out repeatedly after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) with one commentator losing a high-profile bet that prices could fall up to 40% and having to walk to the summit of Mount Kosciuszko as a result.
In 2010, a US newspaper, The Philadelphia Trumpet, warned “Pay close attention Australia. Los Angelification (referring to a 40% slump in LA home prices around the GFC) is coming to a city near you.” At the same time, a US fund manager was labelling Australian housing as a “time bomb”. Similar calls were made last year by a hedge fund researcher and a hedge fund: “The Australian property market is on the verge of blowing up on a spectacular scale...The feed-through effects will be immense... the economy will go into recession." Over the years these crash calls have even made it on to 60 Minutes and Four Corners.
The basic facts on Australian property are well known:
- It’s expensive relative to income, rents, its long-term trend (see the next chart) and by global standards.
- Affordability is poor – price to income ratios are very high and it’s a lot harder to save a sufficient deposit.
- The surge in prices has seen a surge in debt that has taken our household debt to income ratio to the high end of OECD countries, which exposes Australia to financial instability should households decide to cut their level of debt.
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These things arguably make residential property Australia’s Achilles heel. But as I have learned over the last 15 years, it’s a lot more complicated than the crash calls suggest.
First, it’s dangerous to generalise
While it’s common to refer to “the Australian property market”, only Sydney and Melbourne have seen sustained and rapid price gains in recent years.
On CoreLogic data over the last five years dwelling prices have risen at an average annualised rate of 11.4% per annum (pa) in Sydney and 9.4% pa in Melbourne but prices in Brisbane, Adelaide, Hobart and Canberra have risen by a benign 3 to 5% pa and prices have fallen in Perth and Darwin.
Australian cites basically swing around the national average with prices in one or two cities surging for a few years and then underperforming as poor affordability forces demand into other cities. This can be seen in the next chart with Sydney leading the cycle over the last 20 years and Perth lagging.
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Second, supply has not kept up with demand
Thanks mostly to an increase in net immigration, population growth since mid-last decade has averaged 368,000 people pa compared to 218,000 pa over the decade to 2005, which requires roughly an extra 55,000 homes per year.
Unfortunately, the supply of dwellings did not keep pace with the surge in population growth (see the next chart) so a massive shortfall built up driving high home prices. Thanks to the recent surge in unit supply this is now being worked off. But there is no broad based oversupply problem.
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Third, lending standards have been improving 
For all the talk about “liar loans", Australia has not seen anything like the deterioration in lending standards other countries saw prior to the GFC. 
Interest-only loans had been growing excessively but are not comparable to so-called NINJA (no income, no job, no asset) sub-prime and low-doc loans that surged in the US prior to the GFC. Interest-only and high loan to valuation loans have also been falling lately. 
And much of the increase in debt has gone to older, wealthier Australians, who are better able to service their loans. 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/10/18/Chart3.jpg" alt="">
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Fourth, the importance of tax breaks is exaggerated
A range of additional factors like tax breaks and foreign buyers have played a role but their importance is often exaggerated relative to the supply shortfall. While there is a case to reduce the capital gains tax discount (to remove a distortion in the tax system), negative gearing has long been a feature of the Australian tax system and if it’s the main driver of home price increases as some claim then what happened in Perth and Darwin?
Similarly, foreign buying has been concentrated in certain areas and so cannot explain high prices generally, particularly with foreign buying restricted to new properties.
 
Finally, the conditions for a crash are not in place
To get a housing crash – say a 20% average fall or more – we probably need much higher unemployment, much higher interest rates and/or a big oversupply. But it’s hard to see these.
There is no sign of recession and jobs data remains strong.
The RBA is likely to start raising interest rates next year, but it knows households are now more sensitive to higher rates &amp; will move only very gradually – like in the US – and won’t hike by more than it needs to to keep inflation on target.
Property oversupply will become a risk if the current construction boom continues for several years but with approvals to build new homes slowing this looks unlikely. Don’t get me wrong, none of this is to say that excessive house prices and debt levels are not posing a risk for Australia. But it’s a lot more complicated than commonly portrayed.
So where are we now?
That said, we continue to expect a slowing in the Sydney and Melbourne property markets, with evidence mounting that APRA’s measures to slow lending to investors and interest-only buyers (along with other measures, eg to slow foreign buying) are impacting. This is particularly the case in Sydney where price growth has stalled and auction clearance rates have fallen to near 60%. Expect prices to fall 5-10% (maybe less in Melbourne given strong population growth) over the next two years. This is like what occurred around 2005, 2008-09 &amp; 2012.
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By contrast, Perth and Darwin home prices are likely close to the bottom as mining investment is near the bottom. Hobart and increasingly Brisbane and Adelaide are likely to benefit from flow on or “refugee” demand from Sydney and Melbourne having lagged for many years.
Implications for investors
Housing has a long-term role to play in investment portfolios, but the combination of the strong gains in the last few years in Sydney and Melbourne, vulnerabilities around high household debt levels as official interest rates eventually start to rise and low net rental yields mean investors need to be careful. Sydney and Melbourne are least attractive in the short term. Best to focus on those cities and regional areas that have been left behind and where rental yields are higher.
Dr Shane Oliver
Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist AMP Capital
 
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