Prolific developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/deicorp">Deicorp</a> has secured an $11.6 million sale in its recently launched Lower North Shore apartment development,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/falcon-alexander-crows-nest-8-alexander-street-crows-nest-nsw-2065">Falcon &amp; Alexander</a>.

A family from the Upper North Shore, with three children studying at university, amalgamated two residences to create a 333 sqm spread on the 21st level of the Crows Nest building that is currently under construction.

The apartment will now have four bedrooms, two living areas, and a dedicated study, delivering the scale and functionality typically associated with a freestanding family home.

The apartment will have a&nbsp;50-metre frontage, offering uninterrupted, never-to-be-built-out views stretching across the Sydney Harbour Bridge, Barangaroo, Sydney Harbour and through to the Heads.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135323 project_image_fid=351935]

Deicorp Founder Fouad Deiri OAM said the amalgamated residence shows a clear shift in buyer preferences, particularly among downsizers and family owner-occupiers.

“We’re seeing strong demand from buyers who still want space, separation and flexibility, but without the maintenance and travel time that comes with a large suburban home," Deiri said.

"This residence shows how apartment living can genuinely replace a house when it’s designed with scale, outlook and liveability in mind."

Designed for entertaining and everyday family living, the residence will feature a statement kitchen with a butler’s pantry, expansive living and dining zones, and an outdoor barbecue and entertaining setting, all framed by panoramic harbour views.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135323 project_image_fid=351939]

Positioned just a five-minute walk from the new <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/crows-nest-nsw-2065">Crows Nest</a> Metro station, Falcon &amp; Alexander is conceived as a vertical village, with residences arranged around a central atrium and shared gardens, alongside premium resident amenities and boutique retail and dining at ground level. The project will also include a boutique 100-room hotel.

Designed by award-winning architects <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/turner-studio">TURNER</a>, the project will deliver 188 apartments. One-, two- and three-bedroom apartments are available, starting from $1.3 million.

Construction is currently underway and is scheduled to be completed in 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135323]

Joel Robinson

Deicorp secures $11.6 million sale at Falcon & Alexander, Crows Nest

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sekisui-house-australia">Sekisui House Australia</a> recently welcomed residents into Uno and Duo, marking the completion of the penultimate stage of its $1.2 billion West Village precinct in Brisbane's West End.

There are only two opportunities remaining in the two-tower stage known as The Allere Collection. Duo is fully sold out, but two penthouses have just been released in the sister tower Uno.

The sprawling penthouses, measuring upward of nearly 350 sqm, have been designed by renowned architecture firm Rothelowman to focus on multi-generational living. One penthouse has four bedrooms, the other five, as well as several living areas. A second entry to the apartments make them ideal for those with several generations living under one roof, allowing for greater independence and flexibility within the same home, an increasingly sought-after feature among extended families looking to remain connected without compromising privacy.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=114215 project_image_fid=5703]

Built by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/hutchinson-builders">Hutchinson Builders</a>, one of the best in the construction game, Duo forms part of a connected, pet-friendly vertical community that brings together two architecturally aligned towers with shared rooftop amenity.

Rothelowman Principal Jeff Brown previously described the design philosophy as centred on connection.

“When thinking of ways to nourish a soul one needs connection to self, to nature and to community,” Brown said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=114215 project_image_fid=204874]

That ethos is expressed through Duo’s rooftop offering, which includes a pool and heated spa framed by mature planting, a private dining room and residents’ lounge, and BBQ facilities. On the lower levels, residents have access to&nbsp;work-from-home spaces, a workshop, and a pet parlour.

The rooftop captures views across the Brisbane River and back toward the city skyline, positioning it as both a retreat and a social anchor for residents.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=114215 project_image_fid=364091]

Owners in Duo also have access to Uno’s rooftop amenities, effectively doubling the shared facilities within the community. At Uno, residents can use a second rooftop pool, additional private dining and entertaining areas, a teppanyaki grill, and the Paw Pavilion, an off-leash space designed for residents’ dogs. The reciprocal access reinforces the project’s “vertical neighbourhood” model, where common areas are intended to extend the footprint of each apartment.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=114215 project_image_fid=5710]

The Allere Collection sits within West Village, a 2.6-hectare mixed-use precinct just 800 metres from the Brisbane CBD. Delivered progressively since 2016 on the former Peters Ice Cream factory site, the masterplan now integrates heritage buildings, retail and dining, health and wellness providers, and open green space into an established inner-west address.

Sekisui has released the final stage of the development, Callista on Park, set to be completed in Q2 next year. With the first release now 95 per cent sold out, limited large-scale three- and four-bedroom residences remain, priced from $2.6 million.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=114215]

Allere Collection residents move in as multi-award winning West Village enters its final chapter

Construction is underway at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/yarraville-green-42-stephen-street-yarraville-vic-3013">Yarraville Green</a>, the boutique residential development by <a>Excelon Projects</a> on Stephen Street in Yarraville, following the appointment of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/balmain-co">Balmain &amp; Co</a> as builder.

The milestone marks a significant step forward for the 53-residence project, designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/six-degrees-architects">Six Degrees Architects</a> with landscape architecture by Simone Bliss Landscape Architects, conceived around a strong focus on community, craftsmanship and connection to nature.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/excelon-projects">Excelon Projects</a>’ vision brings together 41 one, two and three-bedroom apartments and 12 townhomes arranged around a central landscaped garden, prioritising liveability in a low-rise, low-density format.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144913 project_image_fid=297728]

Open-air corridors, a light-filled lobby and generous setbacks are intended to enhance day-to-day comfort while reinforcing the development’s community-oriented design approach.

Car parking has been located underground to prioritise shared green space and pedestrian movement through the site, allowing the landscaped garden to form the central organising element of the development.

Interiors incorporate custom pieces by Melbourne makers including leadlight pendants by Adadaz, hand-turned timber door handles by Auburn Woodturning, and blown-glass lighting by Ruth Allen, embedding a layer of local craftsmanship throughout the homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144913 project_image_fid=297736]

Sustainability has also informed the design approach, with Yarraville Green targeting an average 7-star NatHERS energy rating. Passive design measures such as cross-ventilation and thermal mass aim to reduce reliance on mechanical heating and cooling, while rooftop solar panels will supply power to common areas and harvested rainwater will be reused for landscape irrigation.

Positioned along the quiet, tree-lined Stephen Street, Yarraville Green sits between Yarraville and Seddon villages, placing residents within walking distance of cafés, dining, boutique retail and the Sun Theatre.

Seddon Station is also a short walk away, ideal for residents seeking an inner-west address with strong amenity and transport connections.

Completion of Yarraville Green is anticipated in 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=144913]

Balmain & Co appointed builder as construction begins at Excelon Projects’ Yarraville Green

A long-stalled Mermaid Beach development site opposite Pacific Fair, previously earmarked for a twin-tower project, is set for a fresh development push with plans for a major mixed-use residential tower.&nbsp;

Billionaire garbo Ian Malouf's development company, REMI Residences, is proposing Project Elegance, a 44-storey tower with over 270 residential apartments and 88 short-term accomodation units at&nbsp;2065 Gold Coast Highway, Mermaid Beach, on the corner of Mermaid Avenue.

Malouf paid $23.76 million for the 3,783 sqm site in 2022, six years after it traded for $34.1 million when it was bought by Hubei United Investment Group.

 
<img alt="First Look: REMI Developments plans major mixed-use tower with 360 apartments at stalled Mermaid Beach site" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" data-widget="image" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Mermaid%20Beach%20da%20podium.png?VersionId=yRYSSPItvCA5ZeQ49LlwkQYVn7OhEqIC" /><img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" draggable="true" height="15" role="presentation" src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAPABAP///wAAACH5BAEKAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAICRAEAOw==" title="Click and drag to move" width="15" />

&nbsp;

The design statement by DKO says Project Elegance "represents a holistic response to its coastal and urban context. It draws upon site, climate, and landscape to create a composed architectural outcome that prioritises occupant experience, public interface, and long-term viability via vibrant and active uses."

They say the subject site&nbsp;occupies a distinctive island parcel with three street frontages and prominent visual exposure to passing visitors.

"This unique position allows the development to form a panoramic dialogue with water and city, setting the foundation for a climate-responsive, site-specific architectural expression.&nbsp;The podium base, inspired by the region’s sandstone headlands and coastal setting, and adopts a sculpted and grounded character that provides a stable counterpoint to the slender tower above."

&nbsp;

<img alt="First Look: REMI Developments plans major mixed-use tower with 360 apartments at stalled Mermaid Beach site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="4f088e10-6493-49d4-83cd-10fc039318ac" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Mermaid%20Beach%20da%20tower.png?VersionId=Sbglj0tNBqyvY5V_DlVH.bvjXi8kBbfl" />

Residents and guests would have access to multiple communal recreation levels. Plans include a shared recreation deck on level six, with a pool and three padel courts. There will be a residential-only pool on level seven, and an upper-level communal space only accessible by those buyers towards the top of the tower.

&nbsp;

Ground-floor commercial spaces are proposed to operate between 5am and midnight, contributing to an activated street frontage along the busy Gold Coast Highway corridor.

The site sits within the High Density Residential zone and a Light Rail Urban Renewal Area, where planning policy encourages higher-density development close to transport infrastructure and services. The planning report states the project aims to “ensure the efficient reuse of this centrally located property” and support the transformation of inner-city areas into “more vibrant, compact, interesting, connected and active” precincts.

&nbsp;

The proposal marks the latest attempt to unlock the high-profile parcel, which previously carried approval for the “Elegance” twin-tower development, a project that included more than 500 apartments but ultimately stalled after sales activity ceased in 2019.

REMI Developments has been increasingly active in the Gold Coast property market, with the Malouf-led group positioning itself around premium residential and lifestyle-focused projects as the region continues to attract both interstate buyers and international interest.

Malouf is one of Australia's most impressive entrepreneurs, having sold his waste business fore more than $500 million, having started only with a small truck at 18 years old.

First Look: Billionaire Ian Malouf plans Mermaid Beach tower

A State Significant Development proposal from Ecove Group could see two high-rise residential towers developed above an ALDI-anchored retail podium in Gordon.

The 28-storey towers, dubbed Eight 10, would become the tallest in the sleepy Upper North Shore suburb, which has been stirred by changes to the Low to Mid-Rise Housing Policy aimed at triggering greater density around transport hubs.

Ecove Group’s plans for 810 Pacific Highway, a 2,357 sqm site around 400 metres from Gordon railway station, include 180 apartments, 39 of which would be dedicated as affordable housing.

Architecture firm PBD said in its Design Report the site "presents an exciting opportunity to positively contributes to the surrounding context, enhances the overall urban experience."

<img alt="First Look: Ecove lodges State Significant Development plans for dual-tower “Eight 10” project at 810 Pacific Highway, Gordon" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e50141fa-fb0b-44b3-bf9b-c6d87b993c3b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Eight%2010%20podium.png?VersionId=YTgQPBxNnmQwr6x2AJSpVZ1COqa.9oLQ" />

The site previously received approval for a development comprising 56 apartments above retail in 2018.

PBD noted in its report that the planning&nbsp;context for the site has "evolved significantly since the original consent was issued."

In April 2024, the Department of Planning, Housing and Infrastructure (DPHI) identified the site as being located within a Transport Oriented Development (TOD) precinct. In parallel, Ku-ring-gai Council progressed a preferred planning framework for Gordon Town Centre, including proposed amendments to the Ku-ring-gai Local Environmental Plan 2015 (KLEP 2015).

<img alt="First Look: Ecove lodges State Significant Development plans for dual-tower “Eight 10” project at 810 Pacific Highway, Gordon" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="cf65fb26-a163-41ea-a4d3-8ddbeabd67e4" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Eight%2010%20MAP.png?VersionId=vrQJzXSg3xRH.APBmtth5mA2adPmUPjc" />

PBD said the proposed development "responds to the amended KLEP 2015 and, in addition, seeks to utilise the floor space ratio and height incentives available under Chapter 2, Part 2, Division 1 of the State Environmental Planning Policy (Housing) 2021."

Late last year the first project in Gordon through the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority was approved. That was for 106 apartments across two connected seven to eight-storey buildings.

Ecove plans 28-storey apartment towers in Gordon

Housing Bubble

&nbsp;Australia&rsquo;s housing market is experiencing a peak growth rate, but experts say the current boom won&rsquo;t last forever.&nbsp;

In this month&rsquo;s Finder RBA Cash Rate Survey&trade;, 40 experts and economists weighed in on future cash rate moves and other issues relating to the state of the economy.&nbsp;

While all experts surveyed predict the cash rate to hold, nearly half of those who weighed in on property prices (47%, 16/34) believe Australia&rsquo;s current house price growth is unsustainable.

Property market growth surged at its fastest rate in 33 years in March, with national dwelling values also increasing by 6.2% over the past year according to CoreLogic.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6690 project_image_fid=27326]

Graham Cooke, head of consumer research at Finder, said that some experts are concerned a housing bubble is emerging.

&ldquo;Rock-bottom rates, government stimulus and a fear of missing out have really lit a fire under the belly of the market.&quot;

&ldquo;Listing numbers are unable to meet high buyer demand, keeping inventory levels low overall and adding to the sense of urgency among buyers. &quot;

&ldquo;We&rsquo;ve seen more borrowed for housing over the last six months than during any similar period in history &ndash; and economists have tipped us to borrow more over the next six.&quot;

&ldquo;It&rsquo;s unlikely we&#39;ll see any regulatory intervention from policymakers yet, but this might be a possibility down the track,&rdquo; Cooke said.&nbsp;

According to Mala Raghavan of the University of Tasmania, buyers may put themselves at risk by acting too hastily.&nbsp;

&ldquo;The recent uptick in buying behaviour largely appears to be due to the fear of missing out, and many buyers are rushing into the market without clear foresight of the impending risks.&quot;

&ldquo;When mortgage rates start rising, many households will risk being unable to service their loans, and could be vulnerable to foreclosures,&rdquo; she said.&nbsp;

Graham Cooke, head of consumer research at Finder, said that some experts are concerned a housing bubble is emerging

jordan_55689

1 in 2 experts say recent house price growth is “unsustainable”: Finder

<html><body>
Sydney home owners can feel confident that their property values will hold up amid the gradual wind-down of the price boom.
There are two reasons. One is that economists are predicting values will fall. Given their track record of getting it wrong on real estate, we can be fairly sure values won’t decline.
The other reason is the historic precedent. Sydney has had big price booms before and when the bull run ended, there was no decline in values. Prices simply stopped growing.
I fully agree with the growing list of pundits calling the end to Sydney’s boom. I’ve been writing about it for the past 5-6 months.
On 21 May I wrote in this column: “It was inevitable that Sydney would run out of puff eventually and the most likely time for it to happen was in the third year of price growth – which means some time this year. It’s rare for major markets to sustain a boom for any longer than that. 
“I’ve just finished the research for the latest edition of The Price Predictor Index, examining market activity in suburbs and towns across the nation, and it indicates Sydney has begun a gradual fade.”
That view was subsequently confirmed by sales figures for the June Quarter, which continued the pattern seen in the March Quarter figures. It’s clear now that, in terms of sales activity, Sydney peaked in the December Quarter last year and has been on a gradual fade ever since.
But does this mean prices will collapse? Not if 2004 is any guide.
The preceding 2-3 years represent the last time Australia had a genuine national property boom. In 2002, six of the eight capital cities recorded double-digit growth in median house prices, including three (Sydney, Brisbane and Adelaide) where prices grew more than 20%. The national average rise was 18%, double the average rise in the past 12 months.
The following year was even more prolific. In 2003, all eight capital cities recorded growth of at least 13%. Five of capital cities grew more than 20% and the city average that year was a 19% rise.
The past 12 months, in comparison to those stellar years, have been rather tame, with only Sydney recording double-digit growth (although some research sources have Melbourne nudging above 10%). Media hysteria suggesting we have been in the midst of an unprecedented national boom lately is quite ludicrous when we consider the 2002-2003 scenario.
 The bottom line, however, is this: by 2004 the boom had run out of steam. Economists, journalists and other pontificators were routinely predicting a collapse in prices. But it didn’t happen. The growth subsided but there was no price decline.
Earlier this year I conducted a research exercise for a client, examining media coverage of real estate since the beginning of the 21st Century and comparing it to actual outcomes.
This revealed that reports of bubbles, unsustainably high property values and inevitable price collapse have occurred constantly in Australian media over the past 15 years.
Every economist complaining that property prices should fall because they don’t comply with their theory about where prices should be has been given airplay.
Every overseas spruiker seeking to drum up attention for a book launch or a seminar tour has gained massive publicity by forecasting that our property values were about to decline 40%, 50% or 60%. One was silly enough to predict a 90% drop in land values and media was silly enough to publish it.
None of them was right. Despite that relentless production line of doomsday headlines stretching across 15 years, there has been no Armageddon in Australian real estate.
So, now the chattering economists are at it again. No matter how many times they get it wrong on real estate, they will continue to step up for another bout of false profiteering. 
The boffins at Macquarie Bank have rolled out some very specific forecasts about something they call “Australian property prices”. They’re going to start falling in March next year. And the decline won’t be 5% or 6% or somewhere in the band from 5-10%, it will be exactly and precisely 7.5%.
Will they be proven accurate? Not a chance.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
</body></html>

terryryder-YECXbqmri2

The end is nigh for Sydney's property boom: Terry Ryder

<html><body>
There is little doubt the Sydney auction market has started out a lot better in February, than it finished off last December.
At this stage, four weeks in, the positivity has been more evident from the auction clearance rate being on the rise, than prices making any advances.
February typically suffers none of the inbuilt end of year fatigue. Saturday's preliminary clearance sat at over 70 percent.
You never know, but prices could spurt again, especially if our fresh stock levels stay low after the upcoming early Easter break, and the banks begin to ease up on their lending.
It would not be a second wind for prices, because we've already seen that many times, just when the market seemed destined to head backwards.
Sydney is highly resilient when it comes to property price momentum, often catching forecasters out of step.
I was thinking of the contributing mix, intrinsic and not so, when I popped a few questions to Harry Dent, one of the world’s most controversial economic futurists.
He is currently touring Australia. Last time he toured in 2014, Dent's worst case scenario was for a post-China bubble burst impacting on Sydney with property prices possibly set to collapse by as much as 60 percent.
His controversial forecasts were labelled as scaremongering by many commentators including Chris Joye.
Dent's earlier 2011 crash forecast also saw the founder of wealth manager Yellow Brick Road Mark Bouris counter the claims. 
In 2011 on David Koch’s Sunrise program, Dent urged viewers to sell their homes before the 50 percent crash in prices arrived at their doorsteps after a China crash hits our shores.
He will be pursuing the same message this time around.
I told Dent that dwelling prices in Sydney now sit at around a $895,000 median, up from $610,000 in early 2014.
The median represents a significant 46 percent rise since Dent's last warning, and an 80 percent rise since his 2011 warning.
Pressed by me, Dent admits he was wrong through he sticks to the yet-to-occur outcome, merely adjusting the timing of his dire forecast.
"I was wrong, how about that," he said.
"I'm early."
Australia will burst whenever the China bubble bursts, he says.
Dent warns many won't see it coming, and adds that real estate, unlike the stockmarket, won't have any easy escape route, and its recovery will take much longer.
"This is not a normal bubble," he suggests noting the global real estate bubble had extended well beyond typical lengths.
He argues the global bubble has been caused by central banks printing money, not just low interest rates.
Dent says suggests central banks can't keep printing money for ever.
"What's not different is by every measure, is these are bubbles.
"Chinese real estate is a bubble.
"The Sydney real estate is a bubble." 
"Better to get out a little early," he will be telling his 2018 audiences.
This article was first published in the Saturday Daily Telegraph
</body></html>

jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Harry Dent says he was early with his dire Sydney price collapse forecast

<html><body>
Australian residential prices remained “40% overvalued” and the bubble is yet to burst, the international doomsday commentator Harry Dent has claimed.
Australia was going to lead the next global bust, he said.
Dent forecast “Australian prices would fall 50%” in the next downturn and he ranks Australia as the third most overpriced market in the world, coming in behind Hong Kong and China.
“Don’t take the ‘oh, we had a little crash and it’s over, time to buy again because we don’t want to miss out’,” Dent said.
“Real estate, mark my words, will in five, 10 or 15 years time never be better than this. The best cities, Sydney and Melbourne, are going to go down more than say Adelaide. Rich people will lose the most money,” he tipped.
Dent again claimed that Australians’ exposure to a weakening Chinese economy would be the primary trigger of the downturn.
“It’s going to be more pervasive,” he said ahead of his seminar tour to Sydney next month.
He said while Australia escaped the worst of the global financial crisis, it would not avoid the next global downturn, which would be worse than the 1929 depression.
Dent says the recent Reserve Bank of Australia rate cuts would only exacerbate the looming correction.
“Maybe we’re over-forecasting this, that’s possible, but there’s not much upside in real estate anywhere in the world left after a bubble this size,” Dent added.
“Your great Australian real estate bubble is going to burst … maybe I am wrong, maybe it’s 30 or 40%.
“But there’s no way real estate is going to go up much further … and there will be no soft landing,” he said.
When Dent was on his 2016 tour he forecast a 50% fall. However, Sydney prices rose by 75% after that forecast, followed by a 15% decline over the past two years. Dent gave his latest forecast to Martin North at Digital Finance Analytics, who noted that debt is higher than it’s ever been.
“Yet the Reserve Bank here is basically encouraging people to get into the market now to try and support the economy,” North said.
Dent’s latest doomsday claims have been slammed by mainstream property analysts.
“He has never been correct on the Australian housing market,” the boss of SQM Research Louis Christopher said yesterday.
“I am concerned for people who get hoodwinked into his seminars,” Christopher added.
Property economist Dr Andrew Wilson said Dent was a “discredited doomsayer”.
Wilson said that the bubble collapse claims were “click-bait”.
“And, as usual, outrageous predictions of steep and sustained house price declines will prove to be so much nonsense — as has clearly again been the case this year,” he said.
“With the prospect now of a lengthy period of relative certainty and predictability ahead, buyers and sellers will increasingly ignore the snake-oil salesmen and take advantage of the ongoing benefits of home ownership and investment,” Wilson said.
This article first appeared in The Sunday Telegraph. 
</body></html>

j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Harry Dent is back predicting property prices will "fall 50%"

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
There are two things that can happen to an asset price bubble. It can burst dramatically, or deflate slowly.
Which brings us to the Australian housing market.
Prices in Sydney and Melbourne continue to decline at a modest rate. The <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/research/monthly-indices" target="_blank">CoreLogic index</a> has Sydney prices down 6.1% for the last 12 months, and Melbourne down 3.4%.
This barely dents the huge increases in previous years and is consistent with “deflate slowly” scenario.
What could cause a pop?
<h2>Interest-only loans could do it</h2>
As I have <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-if-it-looks-like-a-bubble-and-sounds-like-a-bubble-75050" target="_blank">said here before</a>, one of the worries is interest-only loans.
Around A$360 billion of these loans are due to be rolled over over the next three years. If they are not, they will convert to principal-and-interest loans, which are much more expensive to maintain.
Given that only about 15% of loans currently issued are interest-only, down from 40% in recent times, that means a lot of people are starting to pay the more expensive principal and interest. For some, the jump in repayments will be as high as 40%.
That’s scary enough. But <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-minutes/2018/2018-10-02" target="_blank">this week’s minutes of the October Reserve Bank board</a> meeting point to another concerning possibility – an old-fashioned credit crunch.
The bank put it this way:
Members discussed the release of the interim report of the Royal Commission into Misconduct in the Banking, Superannuation and Financial Services Industry… Members observed that while the regulators had already overseen a tightening of lending standards, and a degree of tightening of lending standards had been implemented by banks in anticipation of the Commission’s findings, it was possible that banks could tighten lending conditions further given the issues raised in the report. Members noted that it would be important to monitor the future supply of credit to ensure that economic activity continued to be appropriately supported.
Translation: the banks have stopped lending as much, and might lend even less; this could be bad for the economy.
Could it blow up the housing market?
Well, possibly. Here’s how.
<h2>Here’s how it would happen</h2>
If the amount of housing credit available is significantly reduced, it is hard for people to buy properties.
That means it becomes hard for people to sell – or even move from one property to another. A market with fewer buyers and sellers in it (what economists call a “thin market”) means more volatile prices.
This turns the price someone gets from selling a property into more of a lottery. There’s a decent chance the seller gets much less than she thought.
Worse still, most people are highly leveraged in residential property – often putting down a deposit of just 10% to 20%.
<h2>Owners would get hit rather than their banks</h2>
All the drop in the selling price hits the owner, because the bank gets paid back no matter what.
So a 10% drop in price can wipe out all the seller’s equity in the property.
Even if the owner has paid down, say, half the loan, that’s a big hit.
It’s the prospect of this that causes people not to want to sell. If an owner can hold on, they will.
So which properties end up on the market? Precisely those of the people who really need to sell.
<h2>They would sell because they had to</h2>
Knowing this, and without much competition, buyers turn the screws, pushing down prices still further and exacerbating the problem.
Of course, for that to happen people need to sell.
Why might that be? There are are number of reasons. Their repayments could rise because of rates rising. Even without an official rise in the cash rate by the RBA, banks can, and recently have, raised rates because of their funding costs in money markets.
A borrower might need to change cities because of their job, or might lose their job and be unable to meet repayments. Or a borrower might have an unexpected expense, perhaps relating to health care. The list goes on.
<h2>We can’t be sure it won’t happen</h2>
It is hard to predict whether any of those things will happen to people in sufficient numbers to cause a meltdown.
But that’s the whole point – it is hard to be confident that it won’t happen.
And if it does occur then the consequences could be huge.
<h2>Game theory suggests it might</h2>
It might seem perverse that the big four banks could voluntarily cut back on lending and cause a collapse in prices that craters their own loan books. Yet that’s exactly the lesson from the work of <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/1994/press-release/">John Nash</a>, who won the 1994 Nobel Prize in economics for his work on game theory. In a strategic setting, what is best for the individual might not be best for the group.
If individual banks don’t cut back their lending but others do, they will get stuck with the worst loans.
Avoiding that fate might mean creating market conditions that hurt all existing loans.
It’s the paradox at the heart of game theory.
<h2>But I’m hoping for the best</h2>
I’m still betting on the residential property market deflating slowly, rather than popping.
But unfortunately you don’t need to get too creative to imagine scenarios that involve a very loud pop – for property owners, the banks and the economy more generally.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/105137/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-holden-118107" target="_blank">Richard Holden</a>, Professor of Economics and PLuS Alliance Fellow, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414" target="_blank">UNSW</a>
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-the-housing-market-might-deflate-but-it-might-pop-heres-how-105137" target="_blank">original article</a>.
</body></html>

rh-YsoTT2xMuQ

How the housing market might pop: Richard Holden

<html><body>
Neither the Sydney nor Melbourne property market is going to crash, veteran estate agent John McGrath has blogged.
"There are too many fundamentals holding prices up, such as the undersupply, high population growth largely due to migration, very low interest rates, low unemployment and a strong economy," he told investor readers on the Switzer website.
But he agreed the cities were "seeing prices paring back."
He indicated just how far prices will fall "is a hard question to answer with any real accuracy," but added it was reasonable to rely on history for an indication of how low prices might go.
He cited recent research showing Australia has had six previous episodes of declining housing prices since 1980, with the peak-to-trough range of 2.5 percent to 8 percent.
McGrath cited the buying urgency has gone, competition was weaker, "there’s more homes for sale and much less risk of paying a premium at auction.
"We’re getting back to normal market conditions," he said adding it was good because market corrections prevent bubbles.
"We want a period of consolidation now to cement in the significant price gains of the boom.... Sydney house prices were up 67% and Melbourne house prices were up 40% since mid-2012 when the growth cycle began.
"So, even if they fall by 8%-10% or more, most home owners shouldn’t be concerned by this. 
"At the end of the day, the gains made during the boom will far outweigh any price falls we experience now," he said.
</body></html>

Sydney and Melbourne property markets won't crash in 2018: John McGrath

<html><body>
<h1>Vital Signs: five economic red flags to watch for in 2018</h1>
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/196084/original/file-20171123-6072-13xyzhk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="File 20171123 6072 13xyzhk.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1">
We don’t know for sure if any of these things could happen, but if they do we’re in for a wild ride in 2018. Image sourced from shutterstock.com <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-holden-118107" target="_blank">Richard Holden</a>, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414" target="_blank">UNSW</a>
Vital Signs is a weekly economic wrap from UNSW economics professor and Harvard PhD Richard Holden (@profholden). Vital Signs aims to contextualise weekly economic events and cut through the noise of the data affecting global economies.
This week: A break from weekly data to look forward to the year ahead.
<hr>
With a data-light week, and the end of 2017 looming, this is a good time to touch on five issues to watch out for in 2018.
<h2>1. Trump loses patience with NAFTA</h2>
US President Donald Trump has made clear his contempt for a variety of international agreements to which the US is a signatory. The North American Free Trade Agreement is certainly one of them. 2018 could be the time when Trump engineers either a renegotiation of NAFTA, or (scarily) a US exit from it.
Right now, the administration is trying to extract concessions from China and Mexico on the deal, and has set a March 2018 deadline for an agreement.
A US exit from NAFTA would be calamatous. The three economies have become heavily integrated since NAFTA began, and it’s almost hard to imagine what the US economy would look like without, for example, cheap goods and agricultural produce from Mexico.
<h2>2. We find out Australia had a housing bubble, because it bursts</h2>
Is there a bubble in the Australian housing market? I have consistently said that I don’t know, and I wouldn’t know how to prove it even if there was. But there are some troubling markers, including investment bank <a href="https://neo.ubs.com/shared/d1QtAq68bSw15m/?off_id=AC201709E304806129W1757731499&amp;ma=X47535154596E5669&amp;camp_id=EM%3AUNKW%3A2017-09%3A10%3AC" target="_blank">UBS’s report</a> warning about the potentially large number of so-called <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-liar-loans-undermine-sound-lending-practices-87073" target="_blank">“liar loans”</a>.
I’ll add one more marker that I haven’t heard discussed before. <a href="https://thejollyswagmen.com/new-blog/2017/11/15/28-liar-loans-peter-white" target="_blank">A respected mortgage industry insider said</a> the data in the UBS report doesn’t make sense, and that mortgage brokers aren’t encouraging people to falsify loan applications. But the same expert said any instances of bad behaviour are isolated, that statistics aren’t facts, and he rejected the idea that incentive payments to brokers encourage them to push bigger loans to borrowers. Basically, “believe me!”
2018 should give us a pretty good read on whether there will be a slow deflation of Sydney and Melbourne property prices (at least in real terms), or whether there will be an abrupt reduction in prices, a series of fire sales, and trouble for the banks. I think the balance of evidence now suggests the latter.
<h2>3. There’s a ‘take back’ of the Brexit vote</h2>
The UK will continue to negotiate its exit from the European Union, and 2018 will be both important and consequential. There is a very specific timeline for the UK’s exit – 11pm GMT, Friday March 29, 2019 to be exact.
The four big issues are: (i) what the UK owes the EU financially, (ii) the Northern Ireland border, (iii) what happens to UK citizens living in the EU, and EU citizens living in the UK, and (iv) the biggest of all – trade.
Theresa May – when not defending inappropriate behaviour from her male colleagues, or falling for sophomoric pranks when speaking in public – is sticking to her “hard Brexit” line. 2018 will show whether this is even vaguely possible. I strongly suspect not – and there are a whole host of interesting things that could happen.
One, May could easily lose the prime ministership. Two, there could end up being another vote to “take back” the Brexit vote. If you think that’s crazy then <a href="http://podcast.cnn.com/the-axe-files-david-axelrod/episode/all/1TFnFglOwOT80L/f3h850">listen to Tony Blair</a> discussing how it could happen.
All of this could cause major upheaval in financial markets. London remains a fundamentally important international capital market.
<h2>4. US financial regulation softens</h2>
Janet Yellen’s departure as US Federal Reserve Chair in February, and her replacement by Jay Powell, is unlikely to materially alter US monetary policy. Expect gradual rate rises throughout 2018.
What could differ – and not in a good way – is the Fed’s stance on financial regulation. Powell is thought to be more hostile to Dodd-Frank (as the regulatory response to the Great Recession is known) than Yellen. 2018 will be revealing in this regard, because the Trump White House is known to despise those regulations and there could be a concerted effort to remove them using whatever means available.
This would be dangerous and foolish, and lay the groundwork for the next financial crisis.
<h2>5. The European experiment fails</h2>
With a wave of populist sentiment across Europe, and German Chancellor Angela Merkel having a hard time forming a coalition, there is the slim but scary prospect of the EU essentially disintegrating. This could be the result of a sovereign default by a major country like Italy or Spain, that is too big to bail out. Or it could come from a German government that is no longer willing to support the European Central Bank the way it has to date.
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/87851/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">It could well be that none of the worrying scenarios outlined above actually occur. But any number of implicit and explicit deadlines make 2018 look like a more eventful year than most.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-holden-118107" target="_blank">Richard Holden</a>, Professor of Economics and PLuS Alliance Fellow, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414" target="_blank">UNSW</a>
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-five-economic-red-flags-to-watch-for-in-2018-87851" target="_blank">original article</a>.
</body></html>

Australia's troubling housing bubble markers rank among the five economic red flags for 2018: Richard Holden

<html><body><div class="cq-article-content-paras section">
Despite the surge in prices in Sydney and Melbourne and the high indebtedness of Australian households, Aberdeen Asset Management said there was no housing bubble.
They initially said there was no housing bubble in 2015 and re-affirmed this view in a new research paper.
It was written by its Asia Pacific head of property research, Milan Khatri.
<div>
"We don't believe that the Australian housing market is in a bubble, " Mr Khatri wrote.
"The usual features of bubble-type behaviour such as broad synchronisation of price gains across a country, lax bank lending policies, reduced scrutiny of end-buyers, and indiscriminate investor buying, mostly appear missing.
</div>
<div>"Moreover, while housing supply is high by historic standards it is far from being excessive, and appears to have already peaked.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"Certainly there may be pockets of the market where the dangers of oversupply are a real threat – such as CBD apartments – but any weakness is likely to be short-term in nature as new supply eventually falls back," he said.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>However Aberdeen does view house prices as being broadly overvalued close to 10 per cent with "low interest rates no doubt help[ing] to support current valuations".</div>
<div>
The Fairfax Media report noted Khatri said Aberdeen did not believe the Australian market was overheated in the same way that markets like the US, Ireland and Spain were prior to the global financial crisis.
</div>
<div>
Among the features that differentiated it from these markets were measures by authorities to prevent excessive lending on "loose terms"  through the restriction of high-risk loans like interest-only loans and reducing the pace of growth in investor lending to 10 per cent per annum.
He added that big price gains in Sydney and Melbourne reflected housing demand running ahead of supply while in other markets where price growth has been less pronounced supply and demand have been more in balance "with the exception of Brisbane".
</div>
<div class="cq-article-content-media section"> </div>
</div></body></html>

Pockets of dangerous oversupply, but no housing bubble: Aberdeen

<html><body>
<div class="page" title="Page 1">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
A common narrative on the Australian housing market is that it’s in a giant speculative bubble propelled by tax breaks, low interest rates and “liar loans” that have led to massive mortgage stress and that it’s all about to go bust, bringing down the banks and the economy with it. Recent signs of price falls – notably in Sydney – have added interest to such a view.
The trouble is we have been hearing the same for years. Calls for a property crash have been pumped out repeatedly since early last decade. In 2004, The Economist magazine described Australia as “America’s ugly sister” thanks in part to a “borrowing binge” and soaring property prices. At the time, the OECD estimated Australian housing was 51.8% overvalued. Property crash calls were wheeled out repeatedly after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) with one commentator losing a high-profile bet that prices could fall up to 40% and having to walk to the summit of Mount Kosciuszko as a result.
In 2010, a US newspaper, The Philadelphia Trumpet, warned “Pay close attention Australia. Los Angelification (referring to a 40% slump in LA home prices around the GFC) is coming to a city near you.” At the same time, a US fund manager was labelling Australian housing as a “time bomb”. Similar calls were made last year by a hedge fund researcher and a hedge fund: “The Australian property market is on the verge of blowing up on a spectacular scale...The feed-through effects will be immense... the economy will go into recession." Over the years these crash calls have even made it on to 60 Minutes and Four Corners.
The basic facts on Australian property are well known:
- It’s expensive relative to income, rents, its long-term trend (see the next chart) and by global standards.
- Affordability is poor – price to income ratios are very high and it’s a lot harder to save a sufficient deposit.
- The surge in prices has seen a surge in debt that has taken our household debt to income ratio to the high end of OECD countries, which exposes Australia to financial instability should households decide to cut their level of debt.
</div>
<div class="column">
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/10/18/Chart0.jpg" alt="">
 
These things arguably make residential property Australia’s Achilles heel. But as I have learned over the last 15 years, it’s a lot more complicated than the crash calls suggest.
First, it’s dangerous to generalise
While it’s common to refer to “the Australian property market”, only Sydney and Melbourne have seen sustained and rapid price gains in recent years.
On CoreLogic data over the last five years dwelling prices have risen at an average annualised rate of 11.4% per annum (pa) in Sydney and 9.4% pa in Melbourne but prices in Brisbane, Adelaide, Hobart and Canberra have risen by a benign 3 to 5% pa and prices have fallen in Perth and Darwin.
Australian cites basically swing around the national average with prices in one or two cities surging for a few years and then underperforming as poor affordability forces demand into other cities. This can be seen in the next chart with Sydney leading the cycle over the last 20 years and Perth lagging.
</div>
</div>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/10/18/Chart1.jpg" alt="">
</div>
</div>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
Second, supply has not kept up with demand
Thanks mostly to an increase in net immigration, population growth since mid-last decade has averaged 368,000 people pa compared to 218,000 pa over the decade to 2005, which requires roughly an extra 55,000 homes per year.
Unfortunately, the supply of dwellings did not keep pace with the surge in population growth (see the next chart) so a massive shortfall built up driving high home prices. Thanks to the recent surge in unit supply this is now being worked off. But there is no broad based oversupply problem.
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="page" title="Page 2">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/10/18/Chart2.jpg" alt="">
<div class="page" title="Page 2">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
Third, lending standards have been improving 
For all the talk about “liar loans", Australia has not seen anything like the deterioration in lending standards other countries saw prior to the GFC. 
Interest-only loans had been growing excessively but are not comparable to so-called NINJA (no income, no job, no asset) sub-prime and low-doc loans that surged in the US prior to the GFC. Interest-only and high loan to valuation loans have also been falling lately. 
And much of the increase in debt has gone to older, wealthier Australians, who are better able to service their loans. 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/10/18/Chart3.jpg" alt="">
</div>
</div>
</div>
Fourth, the importance of tax breaks is exaggerated
A range of additional factors like tax breaks and foreign buyers have played a role but their importance is often exaggerated relative to the supply shortfall. While there is a case to reduce the capital gains tax discount (to remove a distortion in the tax system), negative gearing has long been a feature of the Australian tax system and if it’s the main driver of home price increases as some claim then what happened in Perth and Darwin?
Similarly, foreign buying has been concentrated in certain areas and so cannot explain high prices generally, particularly with foreign buying restricted to new properties.
 
Finally, the conditions for a crash are not in place
To get a housing crash – say a 20% average fall or more – we probably need much higher unemployment, much higher interest rates and/or a big oversupply. But it’s hard to see these.
There is no sign of recession and jobs data remains strong.
The RBA is likely to start raising interest rates next year, but it knows households are now more sensitive to higher rates &amp; will move only very gradually – like in the US – and won’t hike by more than it needs to to keep inflation on target.
Property oversupply will become a risk if the current construction boom continues for several years but with approvals to build new homes slowing this looks unlikely. Don’t get me wrong, none of this is to say that excessive house prices and debt levels are not posing a risk for Australia. But it’s a lot more complicated than commonly portrayed.
So where are we now?
That said, we continue to expect a slowing in the Sydney and Melbourne property markets, with evidence mounting that APRA’s measures to slow lending to investors and interest-only buyers (along with other measures, eg to slow foreign buying) are impacting. This is particularly the case in Sydney where price growth has stalled and auction clearance rates have fallen to near 60%. Expect prices to fall 5-10% (maybe less in Melbourne given strong population growth) over the next two years. This is like what occurred around 2005, 2008-09 &amp; 2012.
</div>
<div class="column">
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/10/18/Chart5.jpg" alt="">
By contrast, Perth and Darwin home prices are likely close to the bottom as mining investment is near the bottom. Hobart and increasingly Brisbane and Adelaide are likely to benefit from flow on or “refugee” demand from Sydney and Melbourne having lagged for many years.
Implications for investors
Housing has a long-term role to play in investment portfolios, but the combination of the strong gains in the last few years in Sydney and Melbourne, vulnerabilities around high household debt levels as official interest rates eventually start to rise and low net rental yields mean investors need to be careful. Sydney and Melbourne are least attractive in the short term. Best to focus on those cities and regional areas that have been left behind and where rental yields are higher.
Dr Shane Oliver
Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist AMP Capital
 
</div>
</div>
<div class="section">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
 
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
 
</div>
</div>
</div>
</body></html>

Housing Bubble

Editor's Picks

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News

Housing Bubble

Editor's Picks

Receive the latest news stories to your inbox

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News