Lower North Shore developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/abadeen-group">Abadeen</a> has secured development approval for its ultra-luxury residential project on the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/34-burran-avenue-mosman-nsw-2088">dress circle Burran Avenue</a>.

The project, just&nbsp;50 metres from Balmoral Beach within Mosman’s prestigious Golden Triangle, will commence construction in early 2026,&nbsp;following the successful completion of its nearby Hampden Mosman project.

Lodged in April 2025 and approved in September 2025, the development will comprise three whole-floor residences, each designed to capture panoramic harbour views through Sydney Heads.

<img alt="34 Burran Avenue, Mosman" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7f4c7816-0ac8-4ef7-be0a-8ef23b693b68" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/BURRAN%20EV01%20R04%20option%201%20%281%29.jpg?VersionId=gVzI8pT6_K59Nhzaz0FLEvY6Kj9Kc8Fg" />

Set on an elevated 550 sqm corner site at the junction of Burran Avenue and Stanton Road, the building has been designed to sit within Balmoral’s natural slope. The façade mixes stone and metal cladding with angular forms, while oversized terraces and full-height sliding doors create a connection between interior living spaces and outdoor entertaining areas.

The delivery team from Abadeen’s Hampden Mosman project, which includes construction company Reform Projects and interiors company Mathieson, has been retained to bring the same level of execution and craftsmanship to Burran Avenue.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/platform-architects">Platform Architects</a> has been appointed project architect, bringing extensive experience from recent luxury residential projects in Manly, Fairlight and Freshwater.

&nbsp;

Justin Brown, Executive Chairman and Founder of Abadeen, said sites of this calibre, this close to Balmoral, are incredibly rare.

“Burran Avenue is an extraordinary site; its location, its scale and its outlook make it truly one of a kind. Receiving DA approval marks an exciting milestone for Abadeen."

"We’re proud to be moving forward with an exceptional team to deliver a project that will set a new standard for ultra-luxury living on Sydney’s Lower North Shore. Construction is planned to commence in early 2026, and interest is already strong from discerning local buyers who recognise the uniqueness of this address."

Brown anticipates prices will set new Mosman benchmarks above $20 million. Sales are expected to launch in March 2026.

Joel Robinson

Abadeen approved for Mosman's priciest apartments

Lifestyle developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gurner">GURNER™ Group</a>, in partnership with Costa Property Group, has announced plans to reimagine Cunningham Pier in Geelong, one of Victoria's most recognisable heritage landmarks.

The announcement follows the City of Greater Geelong’s release of its Draft Geelong Waterfront Master Plan, which seeks to revitalise the waterfront with new energy, tourism, and investment. GURNER and Costa Property Group’s vision aligns with the Council’s ambitions to create a vibrant, connected, and economically powerful precinct for the community.&nbsp;

The future of Cunningham Pier will draw inspiration from Sydney Harbour’s luxury waterfront residences through to Dubai’s sculptural pier-edge towers, blending architectural excellence with &nbsp;resort-style living, hospitality, and public amenity.&nbsp;

The concept, described as “Saint Moritz on the Sea”, is envisioned to include:&nbsp;

<ul>
	<li>Six-star hotel accommodation and services&nbsp;</li>
	<li>World-class restaurants, bars, and public spaces&nbsp;</li>
	<li>High-end residential offerings&nbsp;</li>
	<li>Entertainment and cultural venues&nbsp;</li>
	<li>Potential cruise ship port facilities, integrating Geelong into the global travel network&nbsp;</li>
</ul>

The transformative project aims to become a magnet for tourism, investment, and innovation, while &nbsp;ensuring continued public access and connection to Corio Bay’s pristine waterfront.&nbsp;

Cunningham Pier has been operated by Costa Property Group for more than 15 years, with the City of Greater Geelong expressing strong support for strategic commercial partnerships that unlock &nbsp;tourism-led economic development for the region’s fast-growing population.&nbsp;

Tim Gurner, Founder &amp; Executive Chairman, GURNER™ Group, said the project is a "once-in-a-generation opportunity to put Geelong on the global map," adding that their version will be of what icons like the Opera House, Story Bridge or Empire State Building have done for other great cities.

“We’ll be working hand-in-hand with the Mayor, Council, the local community, and State Government to deliver something truly iconic that positions Geelong on the world stage. This project brings together everything we’ve built our brand on – world-class design, hospitality, &nbsp;lifestyle, and experience – all in one place. From six-star hotels and restaurants to the possibility of a &nbsp;new cruise ship terminal and luxury residences, the vision is extraordinary.”&nbsp;

City of Greater Geelong&nbsp;Mayor Stretch Kontelj said he welcomes the "bold and inspiring vision reimagining our beloved Cunnigham Pier as a global destination."

"This ambitious plan and the opening of Nyaal Banyul Geelong Convention and Event Centre next year have the potential to take our already world-class waterfront to even greater heights.”

Sydney Harbour, Dubai pier towers, to influence Gurner's Cunningham Pier, Geelong development

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bates-smart">Bates Smart</a> is one of Melbourne's longest standing architecture firms.

Founded in Melbourne in 1853 by Joseph Reed, the firm began as Reed &amp; Barnes and has evolved through various partnerships before adopting the Bates Smart name in the 20th century. With a continuous presence spanning more than 170 years, the practice has played a pivotal role in shaping Melbourne’s architectural identity.

In the 19th century, Bates Smart designed several of Melbourne’s enduring landmarks, including the Royal Exhibition Building (1880), a UNESCO World Heritage site, and the Melbourne Town Hall. The firm’s influence continued into the 20th century with notable works such as Ici House (1958), considered Melbourne’s first modern skyscraper and a milestone in post-war Australian architecture.

One of their landmark designs was&nbsp;The First Church of Christ, Scientist, at 336-340 St Kilda Road. The building, which is listed on the Victorian Heritage Register, was designed by Bates, Peeble and Smart with construction completed in 1922. Architecturally, the building is significant as a rare example of early twentieth century classicism applied to a religious building. Historically, the building is significant as the first church of the Christian Science movement.

Melbourne developer Time &amp; Place decided to bring Bates Smart back to the area to design their next residential apartment project, Park Modern.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=138453 project_image_fid=2138]

<a href="https://www.urban.com.au/new-apartments/park-modern-south-melbourne-1-middleton-lane-south-melbourne-vic-3205">Park Modern</a>, on one of the largest island sites on the Melbourne CBD fringe, bordered by Dorcas Street, Wells Street, and Middleton Lane, will comprise two sculptural towers. It is being positioned as a design-forward response to evolving owner-occupier preferences in the Domain precinct.

Tim Price, Director at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/time-place">Time &amp; Place</a>, says&nbsp;Bates Smart have got a footprint on this city, probably like no other architect.

"It’s a really nice kind of next chapter story, that they created from a design perspective so long ago," Price told Apartments.com.au.

Park Modern will be the third time Time &amp; Place has worked with Bates Smart, having successfully designed and delivered Collins House and Opera on St Kilda Road together.

The brief focused on creating a built form that would feel contextually appropriate while offering a contemporary evolution of inner-city apartment living.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=138453 project_image_fid=2137]

The focus for Park Modern is squarely on owner-occupiers.

“It’s not always about downsizing," Price says.

"Sometimes it’s just about creating a space which is easily maintained, lock up and leave, reflecting people’s aspirations, whether they’re entertainers, big dining room spaces, big open terraces, they’re important parts of any design consideration.”

The building includes a mix of one, two and three-bedroom apartments, as well as penthouses, with layouts and floor plans designed to suit a broad demographic. The architecture has been shaped to capture&nbsp;view corridors to the Botanic Gardens, Port Phillip Bay and the CBD skyline.

Each apartment has been oriented to maximise natural light and provide a clear outlook, elements often cited by owner-occupiers as key criteria.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=138453 project_image_fid=351806]

Rather than defaulting to a generic luxury offering, the amenity strategy at Park Modern reflects specific insights into how residents want to live. The ground floor will include co-working areas, wellness facilities, and a concierge-led lobby that blends indoor and outdoor design cues.

“Wellness has become a more thoughtful consideration, not just gyms or lap pools, but things like magnesium plunge pools, saunas, daybeds, and studio spaces for Pilates and the regular cardio workout,” says Price.

One notable inclusion is a substantial porte-cochère, a covered vehicle drop-off zone integrated into the site plan. It’s a feature rarely seen in inner-urban developments and speaks to the team’s emphasis on ease of arrival and departure for residents and guests.

A display suite for Park Modern is now open by appointment, giving prospective buyers an early look at the project.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=138453]

100 years on, Bates Smart returns to South Melbourne's Domain Precinct to design Park Modern

One of the most significant beachfront projects ever proposed for the small suburb of Miami on the Gold Coast, has taken a major step forward.&nbsp;Monaco Property Group has secured approval for <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nalu-miami-122-marine-parade-qld-4220">NALU</a>, a $500 million development comprising just 45 ultra-luxury residences on the iconic former Nobby’s Outlook site.

Acquired by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/monaco-property-group">Monaco Property Group</a> in 2024 for $70 million, the rare 7,238 sqm Marine Parade parcel boasts more than 80 metres of uninterrupted ocean frontage.

With approvals now secured, Monaco Property Group will move NALU into its delivery phase. The project has been designed by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bda-architecture">BDA Architecture</a>, who collaborated with&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/ldg-landscape-architecture">LDG Landscape Architecture</a> and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/tom-mark-henry">Tom Mark Henry Interiors</a>&nbsp;to create the low-rise building, its landscaping, and interiors.

<img alt="NALU" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3fdf578e-7cc4-4b17-bbc2-ba853522a5d8" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/122_Marine_Parade_002.jpg?VersionId=zFhJWVzX0jmCO.5iIIxNELImHesTjWS4" />

Residences will range from 237 sqm layouts to beachfront homes exceeding 1,400 sqm.

At the heart of the project is a 2,200 sqm lifestyle precinct with a bathhouse, fitness centre and resort-style pool, elevated by a concierge service.

Jonathan Grasso, Co-Founder of Monaco Property Group, said the council approval marks an exciting milestone for NALU, which will launch in Q1 2026.

“The project will now progress toward construction, working alongside our world-class collaborators to bring NALU to life," Grasso said.

“Our vision is to create a legacy project for the Gold Coast, one that not only honours the history of the site but also elevates its future, setting a new standard for coastal living in Australia. NALU embodies the pinnacle of design and location and will stand as an enduring icon of prestige and liveability.”

<img alt="NALU" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="6ae8545b-87ca-4dea-90ed-ac273ec6515d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Image7.jpg?VersionId=Wnmie4bu3x2WQonnG4Pwmh39NdZVKeOV" />

Originally developed in the 1970s as Nobby’s Outlook and later refurbished in 2019 as Nalu, the property has long held a place in the local community’s coastal identity. The new vision will build on this legacy, creating luxury residences that capture ocean views while fostering a lifestyle defined by wellness, connection, and ease.&nbsp;

Beyond its residential offering, NALU will deliver significant economic benefits to the Gold Coast through job creation and opportunities for local suppliers and contractors. Construction is anticipated to commence in early 2026, with completion expected in Q3 2028.

Monaco Property Group approved for $500 million NALU apartments on Miami beach

The most elevated residential tower in Palm Beach, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/corallo-palm-beach-5-palm-beach-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Corallo</a>, has officially launched this week, however only a handful of buyers will have an opportunity to buy in to the 17-storey project.

The $200 million mixed-use project includes ground floor dining and retail and is considered so valuable its developer, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/changfa-group">Changfa Group</a>, will be staging its release of one-, two- and three-bedroom apartments and penthouses to the market.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112194 project_image_fid=806]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/colliers">Colliers</a> International, Director, David Higgins, said the development’s location just metres from the beach on the corner of Palm Beach Avenue and the Gold Coast Highway influenced the sculptural design by the acclaimed Plus Architecture studio.

“<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/palm-beach-qld-4221">Palm Beach</a> locals understand the rare opportunity here at Corallo, particularly being the tallest building in the suburb and its proximity to the beach and local restaurants, and they’ve represented the bulk of pre-launch enquiries,” Higgins said.

“The orientation of the apartments captures views of the coastline from Surfers Paradise to Currumbin, and the diversity of floor plans and apartment types provide an exceptional level of choice.

“The first release includes just 59 one-, two and three-bedroom apartments and two half-floor penthouses, with flexible use designed to appeal to both owner-occupiers and investors."

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112194 project_image_fid=799]

In addition to the ground floor amenity, residents will also have access to a private dedicated wellness level offering 734 sqm of resort-style amenities including a pool, cold plunge, wet deck, steam room, sauna, gym, day bed, fire pit, barbecue area, dining area and yoga/stretch deck.

The project is located within walking distance of Tallebudgera Creek, Burleigh Heads village, Currumbin Alley and Palm Beach Currumbin High School. The Gold Coast Airport is under 10 minutes away.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112194 project_image_fid=814]

Higgins said Palm Beach remained a hotly contested suburb for home buyers, with prices doubling in the past five years.

“What makes Corallo so appealing to the local market is the diversity of apartment types and pricing, with one-bedroom apartments starting from $841,000 and two-bedroom apartments starting from $1.34 million,” he said.

“The ground floor retail and dining offering will further expand on Palm Beach’s village atmosphere and create a meeting place for locals, and those opportunities for connection are highly valued.”

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112194 project_image_fid=807]

The on-site sales display, which includes a fully fitted kitchen, bathroom and bedroom, will be open until early works commence in Q1 2026. Each residence at Corallo will feature premium finishes including natural stone, artisanal brickwork, and warm copper accents.

Changfa Group has a two-decade history of delivering premium developments in Australia and internationally, having recently completed its collection of premium townhomes at Lyra, Hope Island, as well as apartment projects in Leichhardt, Carlingford, and Chatswood in New South Wales.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112194]

$200 million Corallo Palm Beach launches with limited apartment release

Housing Bubble

&nbsp;Australia&rsquo;s housing market is experiencing a peak growth rate, but experts say the current boom won&rsquo;t last forever.&nbsp;

In this month&rsquo;s Finder RBA Cash Rate Survey&trade;, 40 experts and economists weighed in on future cash rate moves and other issues relating to the state of the economy.&nbsp;

While all experts surveyed predict the cash rate to hold, nearly half of those who weighed in on property prices (47%, 16/34) believe Australia&rsquo;s current house price growth is unsustainable.

Property market growth surged at its fastest rate in 33 years in March, with national dwelling values also increasing by 6.2% over the past year according to CoreLogic.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6690 project_image_fid=27326]

Graham Cooke, head of consumer research at Finder, said that some experts are concerned a housing bubble is emerging.

&ldquo;Rock-bottom rates, government stimulus and a fear of missing out have really lit a fire under the belly of the market.&quot;

&ldquo;Listing numbers are unable to meet high buyer demand, keeping inventory levels low overall and adding to the sense of urgency among buyers. &quot;

&ldquo;We&rsquo;ve seen more borrowed for housing over the last six months than during any similar period in history &ndash; and economists have tipped us to borrow more over the next six.&quot;

&ldquo;It&rsquo;s unlikely we&#39;ll see any regulatory intervention from policymakers yet, but this might be a possibility down the track,&rdquo; Cooke said.&nbsp;

According to Mala Raghavan of the University of Tasmania, buyers may put themselves at risk by acting too hastily.&nbsp;

&ldquo;The recent uptick in buying behaviour largely appears to be due to the fear of missing out, and many buyers are rushing into the market without clear foresight of the impending risks.&quot;

&ldquo;When mortgage rates start rising, many households will risk being unable to service their loans, and could be vulnerable to foreclosures,&rdquo; she said.&nbsp;

Graham Cooke, head of consumer research at Finder, said that some experts are concerned a housing bubble is emerging

jordan_55689

1 in 2 experts say recent house price growth is “unsustainable”: Finder

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Sydney home owners can feel confident that their property values will hold up amid the gradual wind-down of the price boom.
There are two reasons. One is that economists are predicting values will fall. Given their track record of getting it wrong on real estate, we can be fairly sure values won’t decline.
The other reason is the historic precedent. Sydney has had big price booms before and when the bull run ended, there was no decline in values. Prices simply stopped growing.
I fully agree with the growing list of pundits calling the end to Sydney’s boom. I’ve been writing about it for the past 5-6 months.
On 21 May I wrote in this column: “It was inevitable that Sydney would run out of puff eventually and the most likely time for it to happen was in the third year of price growth – which means some time this year. It’s rare for major markets to sustain a boom for any longer than that. 
“I’ve just finished the research for the latest edition of The Price Predictor Index, examining market activity in suburbs and towns across the nation, and it indicates Sydney has begun a gradual fade.”
That view was subsequently confirmed by sales figures for the June Quarter, which continued the pattern seen in the March Quarter figures. It’s clear now that, in terms of sales activity, Sydney peaked in the December Quarter last year and has been on a gradual fade ever since.
But does this mean prices will collapse? Not if 2004 is any guide.
The preceding 2-3 years represent the last time Australia had a genuine national property boom. In 2002, six of the eight capital cities recorded double-digit growth in median house prices, including three (Sydney, Brisbane and Adelaide) where prices grew more than 20%. The national average rise was 18%, double the average rise in the past 12 months.
The following year was even more prolific. In 2003, all eight capital cities recorded growth of at least 13%. Five of capital cities grew more than 20% and the city average that year was a 19% rise.
The past 12 months, in comparison to those stellar years, have been rather tame, with only Sydney recording double-digit growth (although some research sources have Melbourne nudging above 10%). Media hysteria suggesting we have been in the midst of an unprecedented national boom lately is quite ludicrous when we consider the 2002-2003 scenario.
 The bottom line, however, is this: by 2004 the boom had run out of steam. Economists, journalists and other pontificators were routinely predicting a collapse in prices. But it didn’t happen. The growth subsided but there was no price decline.
Earlier this year I conducted a research exercise for a client, examining media coverage of real estate since the beginning of the 21st Century and comparing it to actual outcomes.
This revealed that reports of bubbles, unsustainably high property values and inevitable price collapse have occurred constantly in Australian media over the past 15 years.
Every economist complaining that property prices should fall because they don’t comply with their theory about where prices should be has been given airplay.
Every overseas spruiker seeking to drum up attention for a book launch or a seminar tour has gained massive publicity by forecasting that our property values were about to decline 40%, 50% or 60%. One was silly enough to predict a 90% drop in land values and media was silly enough to publish it.
None of them was right. Despite that relentless production line of doomsday headlines stretching across 15 years, there has been no Armageddon in Australian real estate.
So, now the chattering economists are at it again. No matter how many times they get it wrong on real estate, they will continue to step up for another bout of false profiteering. 
The boffins at Macquarie Bank have rolled out some very specific forecasts about something they call “Australian property prices”. They’re going to start falling in March next year. And the decline won’t be 5% or 6% or somewhere in the band from 5-10%, it will be exactly and precisely 7.5%.
Will they be proven accurate? Not a chance.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

The end is nigh for Sydney's property boom: Terry Ryder

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There is little doubt the Sydney auction market has started out a lot better in February, than it finished off last December.
At this stage, four weeks in, the positivity has been more evident from the auction clearance rate being on the rise, than prices making any advances.
February typically suffers none of the inbuilt end of year fatigue. Saturday's preliminary clearance sat at over 70 percent.
You never know, but prices could spurt again, especially if our fresh stock levels stay low after the upcoming early Easter break, and the banks begin to ease up on their lending.
It would not be a second wind for prices, because we've already seen that many times, just when the market seemed destined to head backwards.
Sydney is highly resilient when it comes to property price momentum, often catching forecasters out of step.
I was thinking of the contributing mix, intrinsic and not so, when I popped a few questions to Harry Dent, one of the world’s most controversial economic futurists.
He is currently touring Australia. Last time he toured in 2014, Dent's worst case scenario was for a post-China bubble burst impacting on Sydney with property prices possibly set to collapse by as much as 60 percent.
His controversial forecasts were labelled as scaremongering by many commentators including Chris Joye.
Dent's earlier 2011 crash forecast also saw the founder of wealth manager Yellow Brick Road Mark Bouris counter the claims. 
In 2011 on David Koch’s Sunrise program, Dent urged viewers to sell their homes before the 50 percent crash in prices arrived at their doorsteps after a China crash hits our shores.
He will be pursuing the same message this time around.
I told Dent that dwelling prices in Sydney now sit at around a $895,000 median, up from $610,000 in early 2014.
The median represents a significant 46 percent rise since Dent's last warning, and an 80 percent rise since his 2011 warning.
Pressed by me, Dent admits he was wrong through he sticks to the yet-to-occur outcome, merely adjusting the timing of his dire forecast.
"I was wrong, how about that," he said.
"I'm early."
Australia will burst whenever the China bubble bursts, he says.
Dent warns many won't see it coming, and adds that real estate, unlike the stockmarket, won't have any easy escape route, and its recovery will take much longer.
"This is not a normal bubble," he suggests noting the global real estate bubble had extended well beyond typical lengths.
He argues the global bubble has been caused by central banks printing money, not just low interest rates.
Dent says suggests central banks can't keep printing money for ever.
"What's not different is by every measure, is these are bubbles.
"Chinese real estate is a bubble.
"The Sydney real estate is a bubble." 
"Better to get out a little early," he will be telling his 2018 audiences.
This article was first published in the Saturday Daily Telegraph
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Harry Dent says he was early with his dire Sydney price collapse forecast

<html><body>
Australian residential prices remained “40% overvalued” and the bubble is yet to burst, the international doomsday commentator Harry Dent has claimed.
Australia was going to lead the next global bust, he said.
Dent forecast “Australian prices would fall 50%” in the next downturn and he ranks Australia as the third most overpriced market in the world, coming in behind Hong Kong and China.
“Don’t take the ‘oh, we had a little crash and it’s over, time to buy again because we don’t want to miss out’,” Dent said.
“Real estate, mark my words, will in five, 10 or 15 years time never be better than this. The best cities, Sydney and Melbourne, are going to go down more than say Adelaide. Rich people will lose the most money,” he tipped.
Dent again claimed that Australians’ exposure to a weakening Chinese economy would be the primary trigger of the downturn.
“It’s going to be more pervasive,” he said ahead of his seminar tour to Sydney next month.
He said while Australia escaped the worst of the global financial crisis, it would not avoid the next global downturn, which would be worse than the 1929 depression.
Dent says the recent Reserve Bank of Australia rate cuts would only exacerbate the looming correction.
“Maybe we’re over-forecasting this, that’s possible, but there’s not much upside in real estate anywhere in the world left after a bubble this size,” Dent added.
“Your great Australian real estate bubble is going to burst … maybe I am wrong, maybe it’s 30 or 40%.
“But there’s no way real estate is going to go up much further … and there will be no soft landing,” he said.
When Dent was on his 2016 tour he forecast a 50% fall. However, Sydney prices rose by 75% after that forecast, followed by a 15% decline over the past two years. Dent gave his latest forecast to Martin North at Digital Finance Analytics, who noted that debt is higher than it’s ever been.
“Yet the Reserve Bank here is basically encouraging people to get into the market now to try and support the economy,” North said.
Dent’s latest doomsday claims have been slammed by mainstream property analysts.
“He has never been correct on the Australian housing market,” the boss of SQM Research Louis Christopher said yesterday.
“I am concerned for people who get hoodwinked into his seminars,” Christopher added.
Property economist Dr Andrew Wilson said Dent was a “discredited doomsayer”.
Wilson said that the bubble collapse claims were “click-bait”.
“And, as usual, outrageous predictions of steep and sustained house price declines will prove to be so much nonsense — as has clearly again been the case this year,” he said.
“With the prospect now of a lengthy period of relative certainty and predictability ahead, buyers and sellers will increasingly ignore the snake-oil salesmen and take advantage of the ongoing benefits of home ownership and investment,” Wilson said.
This article first appeared in The Sunday Telegraph. 
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Harry Dent is back predicting property prices will "fall 50%"

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EXPERT OBSERVER
There are two things that can happen to an asset price bubble. It can burst dramatically, or deflate slowly.
Which brings us to the Australian housing market.
Prices in Sydney and Melbourne continue to decline at a modest rate. The <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/research/monthly-indices" target="_blank">CoreLogic index</a> has Sydney prices down 6.1% for the last 12 months, and Melbourne down 3.4%.
This barely dents the huge increases in previous years and is consistent with “deflate slowly” scenario.
What could cause a pop?
<h2>Interest-only loans could do it</h2>
As I have <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-if-it-looks-like-a-bubble-and-sounds-like-a-bubble-75050" target="_blank">said here before</a>, one of the worries is interest-only loans.
Around A$360 billion of these loans are due to be rolled over over the next three years. If they are not, they will convert to principal-and-interest loans, which are much more expensive to maintain.
Given that only about 15% of loans currently issued are interest-only, down from 40% in recent times, that means a lot of people are starting to pay the more expensive principal and interest. For some, the jump in repayments will be as high as 40%.
That’s scary enough. But <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-minutes/2018/2018-10-02" target="_blank">this week’s minutes of the October Reserve Bank board</a> meeting point to another concerning possibility – an old-fashioned credit crunch.
The bank put it this way:
Members discussed the release of the interim report of the Royal Commission into Misconduct in the Banking, Superannuation and Financial Services Industry… Members observed that while the regulators had already overseen a tightening of lending standards, and a degree of tightening of lending standards had been implemented by banks in anticipation of the Commission’s findings, it was possible that banks could tighten lending conditions further given the issues raised in the report. Members noted that it would be important to monitor the future supply of credit to ensure that economic activity continued to be appropriately supported.
Translation: the banks have stopped lending as much, and might lend even less; this could be bad for the economy.
Could it blow up the housing market?
Well, possibly. Here’s how.
<h2>Here’s how it would happen</h2>
If the amount of housing credit available is significantly reduced, it is hard for people to buy properties.
That means it becomes hard for people to sell – or even move from one property to another. A market with fewer buyers and sellers in it (what economists call a “thin market”) means more volatile prices.
This turns the price someone gets from selling a property into more of a lottery. There’s a decent chance the seller gets much less than she thought.
Worse still, most people are highly leveraged in residential property – often putting down a deposit of just 10% to 20%.
<h2>Owners would get hit rather than their banks</h2>
All the drop in the selling price hits the owner, because the bank gets paid back no matter what.
So a 10% drop in price can wipe out all the seller’s equity in the property.
Even if the owner has paid down, say, half the loan, that’s a big hit.
It’s the prospect of this that causes people not to want to sell. If an owner can hold on, they will.
So which properties end up on the market? Precisely those of the people who really need to sell.
<h2>They would sell because they had to</h2>
Knowing this, and without much competition, buyers turn the screws, pushing down prices still further and exacerbating the problem.
Of course, for that to happen people need to sell.
Why might that be? There are are number of reasons. Their repayments could rise because of rates rising. Even without an official rise in the cash rate by the RBA, banks can, and recently have, raised rates because of their funding costs in money markets.
A borrower might need to change cities because of their job, or might lose their job and be unable to meet repayments. Or a borrower might have an unexpected expense, perhaps relating to health care. The list goes on.
<h2>We can’t be sure it won’t happen</h2>
It is hard to predict whether any of those things will happen to people in sufficient numbers to cause a meltdown.
But that’s the whole point – it is hard to be confident that it won’t happen.
And if it does occur then the consequences could be huge.
<h2>Game theory suggests it might</h2>
It might seem perverse that the big four banks could voluntarily cut back on lending and cause a collapse in prices that craters their own loan books. Yet that’s exactly the lesson from the work of <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/1994/press-release/">John Nash</a>, who won the 1994 Nobel Prize in economics for his work on game theory. In a strategic setting, what is best for the individual might not be best for the group.
If individual banks don’t cut back their lending but others do, they will get stuck with the worst loans.
Avoiding that fate might mean creating market conditions that hurt all existing loans.
It’s the paradox at the heart of game theory.
<h2>But I’m hoping for the best</h2>
I’m still betting on the residential property market deflating slowly, rather than popping.
But unfortunately you don’t need to get too creative to imagine scenarios that involve a very loud pop – for property owners, the banks and the economy more generally.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/105137/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-holden-118107" target="_blank">Richard Holden</a>, Professor of Economics and PLuS Alliance Fellow, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414" target="_blank">UNSW</a>
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-the-housing-market-might-deflate-but-it-might-pop-heres-how-105137" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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How the housing market might pop: Richard Holden

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Neither the Sydney nor Melbourne property market is going to crash, veteran estate agent John McGrath has blogged.
"There are too many fundamentals holding prices up, such as the undersupply, high population growth largely due to migration, very low interest rates, low unemployment and a strong economy," he told investor readers on the Switzer website.
But he agreed the cities were "seeing prices paring back."
He indicated just how far prices will fall "is a hard question to answer with any real accuracy," but added it was reasonable to rely on history for an indication of how low prices might go.
He cited recent research showing Australia has had six previous episodes of declining housing prices since 1980, with the peak-to-trough range of 2.5 percent to 8 percent.
McGrath cited the buying urgency has gone, competition was weaker, "there’s more homes for sale and much less risk of paying a premium at auction.
"We’re getting back to normal market conditions," he said adding it was good because market corrections prevent bubbles.
"We want a period of consolidation now to cement in the significant price gains of the boom.... Sydney house prices were up 67% and Melbourne house prices were up 40% since mid-2012 when the growth cycle began.
"So, even if they fall by 8%-10% or more, most home owners shouldn’t be concerned by this. 
"At the end of the day, the gains made during the boom will far outweigh any price falls we experience now," he said.
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Sydney and Melbourne property markets won't crash in 2018: John McGrath

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<h1>Vital Signs: five economic red flags to watch for in 2018</h1>
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/196084/original/file-20171123-6072-13xyzhk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="File 20171123 6072 13xyzhk.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1">
We don’t know for sure if any of these things could happen, but if they do we’re in for a wild ride in 2018. Image sourced from shutterstock.com <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-holden-118107" target="_blank">Richard Holden</a>, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414" target="_blank">UNSW</a>
Vital Signs is a weekly economic wrap from UNSW economics professor and Harvard PhD Richard Holden (@profholden). Vital Signs aims to contextualise weekly economic events and cut through the noise of the data affecting global economies.
This week: A break from weekly data to look forward to the year ahead.
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With a data-light week, and the end of 2017 looming, this is a good time to touch on five issues to watch out for in 2018.
<h2>1. Trump loses patience with NAFTA</h2>
US President Donald Trump has made clear his contempt for a variety of international agreements to which the US is a signatory. The North American Free Trade Agreement is certainly one of them. 2018 could be the time when Trump engineers either a renegotiation of NAFTA, or (scarily) a US exit from it.
Right now, the administration is trying to extract concessions from China and Mexico on the deal, and has set a March 2018 deadline for an agreement.
A US exit from NAFTA would be calamatous. The three economies have become heavily integrated since NAFTA began, and it’s almost hard to imagine what the US economy would look like without, for example, cheap goods and agricultural produce from Mexico.
<h2>2. We find out Australia had a housing bubble, because it bursts</h2>
Is there a bubble in the Australian housing market? I have consistently said that I don’t know, and I wouldn’t know how to prove it even if there was. But there are some troubling markers, including investment bank <a href="https://neo.ubs.com/shared/d1QtAq68bSw15m/?off_id=AC201709E304806129W1757731499&amp;ma=X47535154596E5669&amp;camp_id=EM%3AUNKW%3A2017-09%3A10%3AC" target="_blank">UBS’s report</a> warning about the potentially large number of so-called <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-liar-loans-undermine-sound-lending-practices-87073" target="_blank">“liar loans”</a>.
I’ll add one more marker that I haven’t heard discussed before. <a href="https://thejollyswagmen.com/new-blog/2017/11/15/28-liar-loans-peter-white" target="_blank">A respected mortgage industry insider said</a> the data in the UBS report doesn’t make sense, and that mortgage brokers aren’t encouraging people to falsify loan applications. But the same expert said any instances of bad behaviour are isolated, that statistics aren’t facts, and he rejected the idea that incentive payments to brokers encourage them to push bigger loans to borrowers. Basically, “believe me!”
2018 should give us a pretty good read on whether there will be a slow deflation of Sydney and Melbourne property prices (at least in real terms), or whether there will be an abrupt reduction in prices, a series of fire sales, and trouble for the banks. I think the balance of evidence now suggests the latter.
<h2>3. There’s a ‘take back’ of the Brexit vote</h2>
The UK will continue to negotiate its exit from the European Union, and 2018 will be both important and consequential. There is a very specific timeline for the UK’s exit – 11pm GMT, Friday March 29, 2019 to be exact.
The four big issues are: (i) what the UK owes the EU financially, (ii) the Northern Ireland border, (iii) what happens to UK citizens living in the EU, and EU citizens living in the UK, and (iv) the biggest of all – trade.
Theresa May – when not defending inappropriate behaviour from her male colleagues, or falling for sophomoric pranks when speaking in public – is sticking to her “hard Brexit” line. 2018 will show whether this is even vaguely possible. I strongly suspect not – and there are a whole host of interesting things that could happen.
One, May could easily lose the prime ministership. Two, there could end up being another vote to “take back” the Brexit vote. If you think that’s crazy then <a href="http://podcast.cnn.com/the-axe-files-david-axelrod/episode/all/1TFnFglOwOT80L/f3h850">listen to Tony Blair</a> discussing how it could happen.
All of this could cause major upheaval in financial markets. London remains a fundamentally important international capital market.
<h2>4. US financial regulation softens</h2>
Janet Yellen’s departure as US Federal Reserve Chair in February, and her replacement by Jay Powell, is unlikely to materially alter US monetary policy. Expect gradual rate rises throughout 2018.
What could differ – and not in a good way – is the Fed’s stance on financial regulation. Powell is thought to be more hostile to Dodd-Frank (as the regulatory response to the Great Recession is known) than Yellen. 2018 will be revealing in this regard, because the Trump White House is known to despise those regulations and there could be a concerted effort to remove them using whatever means available.
This would be dangerous and foolish, and lay the groundwork for the next financial crisis.
<h2>5. The European experiment fails</h2>
With a wave of populist sentiment across Europe, and German Chancellor Angela Merkel having a hard time forming a coalition, there is the slim but scary prospect of the EU essentially disintegrating. This could be the result of a sovereign default by a major country like Italy or Spain, that is too big to bail out. Or it could come from a German government that is no longer willing to support the European Central Bank the way it has to date.
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/87851/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">It could well be that none of the worrying scenarios outlined above actually occur. But any number of implicit and explicit deadlines make 2018 look like a more eventful year than most.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-holden-118107" target="_blank">Richard Holden</a>, Professor of Economics and PLuS Alliance Fellow, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414" target="_blank">UNSW</a>
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-five-economic-red-flags-to-watch-for-in-2018-87851" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Australia's troubling housing bubble markers rank among the five economic red flags for 2018: Richard Holden

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Despite the surge in prices in Sydney and Melbourne and the high indebtedness of Australian households, Aberdeen Asset Management said there was no housing bubble.
They initially said there was no housing bubble in 2015 and re-affirmed this view in a new research paper.
It was written by its Asia Pacific head of property research, Milan Khatri.
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"We don't believe that the Australian housing market is in a bubble, " Mr Khatri wrote.
"The usual features of bubble-type behaviour such as broad synchronisation of price gains across a country, lax bank lending policies, reduced scrutiny of end-buyers, and indiscriminate investor buying, mostly appear missing.
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<div>"Moreover, while housing supply is high by historic standards it is far from being excessive, and appears to have already peaked.</div>
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<div>"Certainly there may be pockets of the market where the dangers of oversupply are a real threat – such as CBD apartments – but any weakness is likely to be short-term in nature as new supply eventually falls back," he said.</div>
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<div>However Aberdeen does view house prices as being broadly overvalued close to 10 per cent with "low interest rates no doubt help[ing] to support current valuations".</div>
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The Fairfax Media report noted Khatri said Aberdeen did not believe the Australian market was overheated in the same way that markets like the US, Ireland and Spain were prior to the global financial crisis.
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Among the features that differentiated it from these markets were measures by authorities to prevent excessive lending on "loose terms"  through the restriction of high-risk loans like interest-only loans and reducing the pace of growth in investor lending to 10 per cent per annum.
He added that big price gains in Sydney and Melbourne reflected housing demand running ahead of supply while in other markets where price growth has been less pronounced supply and demand have been more in balance "with the exception of Brisbane".
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Pockets of dangerous oversupply, but no housing bubble: Aberdeen

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A common narrative on the Australian housing market is that it’s in a giant speculative bubble propelled by tax breaks, low interest rates and “liar loans” that have led to massive mortgage stress and that it’s all about to go bust, bringing down the banks and the economy with it. Recent signs of price falls – notably in Sydney – have added interest to such a view.
The trouble is we have been hearing the same for years. Calls for a property crash have been pumped out repeatedly since early last decade. In 2004, The Economist magazine described Australia as “America’s ugly sister” thanks in part to a “borrowing binge” and soaring property prices. At the time, the OECD estimated Australian housing was 51.8% overvalued. Property crash calls were wheeled out repeatedly after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) with one commentator losing a high-profile bet that prices could fall up to 40% and having to walk to the summit of Mount Kosciuszko as a result.
In 2010, a US newspaper, The Philadelphia Trumpet, warned “Pay close attention Australia. Los Angelification (referring to a 40% slump in LA home prices around the GFC) is coming to a city near you.” At the same time, a US fund manager was labelling Australian housing as a “time bomb”. Similar calls were made last year by a hedge fund researcher and a hedge fund: “The Australian property market is on the verge of blowing up on a spectacular scale...The feed-through effects will be immense... the economy will go into recession." Over the years these crash calls have even made it on to 60 Minutes and Four Corners.
The basic facts on Australian property are well known:
- It’s expensive relative to income, rents, its long-term trend (see the next chart) and by global standards.
- Affordability is poor – price to income ratios are very high and it’s a lot harder to save a sufficient deposit.
- The surge in prices has seen a surge in debt that has taken our household debt to income ratio to the high end of OECD countries, which exposes Australia to financial instability should households decide to cut their level of debt.
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These things arguably make residential property Australia’s Achilles heel. But as I have learned over the last 15 years, it’s a lot more complicated than the crash calls suggest.
First, it’s dangerous to generalise
While it’s common to refer to “the Australian property market”, only Sydney and Melbourne have seen sustained and rapid price gains in recent years.
On CoreLogic data over the last five years dwelling prices have risen at an average annualised rate of 11.4% per annum (pa) in Sydney and 9.4% pa in Melbourne but prices in Brisbane, Adelaide, Hobart and Canberra have risen by a benign 3 to 5% pa and prices have fallen in Perth and Darwin.
Australian cites basically swing around the national average with prices in one or two cities surging for a few years and then underperforming as poor affordability forces demand into other cities. This can be seen in the next chart with Sydney leading the cycle over the last 20 years and Perth lagging.
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Second, supply has not kept up with demand
Thanks mostly to an increase in net immigration, population growth since mid-last decade has averaged 368,000 people pa compared to 218,000 pa over the decade to 2005, which requires roughly an extra 55,000 homes per year.
Unfortunately, the supply of dwellings did not keep pace with the surge in population growth (see the next chart) so a massive shortfall built up driving high home prices. Thanks to the recent surge in unit supply this is now being worked off. But there is no broad based oversupply problem.
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Third, lending standards have been improving 
For all the talk about “liar loans", Australia has not seen anything like the deterioration in lending standards other countries saw prior to the GFC. 
Interest-only loans had been growing excessively but are not comparable to so-called NINJA (no income, no job, no asset) sub-prime and low-doc loans that surged in the US prior to the GFC. Interest-only and high loan to valuation loans have also been falling lately. 
And much of the increase in debt has gone to older, wealthier Australians, who are better able to service their loans. 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/10/18/Chart3.jpg" alt="">
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Fourth, the importance of tax breaks is exaggerated
A range of additional factors like tax breaks and foreign buyers have played a role but their importance is often exaggerated relative to the supply shortfall. While there is a case to reduce the capital gains tax discount (to remove a distortion in the tax system), negative gearing has long been a feature of the Australian tax system and if it’s the main driver of home price increases as some claim then what happened in Perth and Darwin?
Similarly, foreign buying has been concentrated in certain areas and so cannot explain high prices generally, particularly with foreign buying restricted to new properties.
 
Finally, the conditions for a crash are not in place
To get a housing crash – say a 20% average fall or more – we probably need much higher unemployment, much higher interest rates and/or a big oversupply. But it’s hard to see these.
There is no sign of recession and jobs data remains strong.
The RBA is likely to start raising interest rates next year, but it knows households are now more sensitive to higher rates &amp; will move only very gradually – like in the US – and won’t hike by more than it needs to to keep inflation on target.
Property oversupply will become a risk if the current construction boom continues for several years but with approvals to build new homes slowing this looks unlikely. Don’t get me wrong, none of this is to say that excessive house prices and debt levels are not posing a risk for Australia. But it’s a lot more complicated than commonly portrayed.
So where are we now?
That said, we continue to expect a slowing in the Sydney and Melbourne property markets, with evidence mounting that APRA’s measures to slow lending to investors and interest-only buyers (along with other measures, eg to slow foreign buying) are impacting. This is particularly the case in Sydney where price growth has stalled and auction clearance rates have fallen to near 60%. Expect prices to fall 5-10% (maybe less in Melbourne given strong population growth) over the next two years. This is like what occurred around 2005, 2008-09 &amp; 2012.
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By contrast, Perth and Darwin home prices are likely close to the bottom as mining investment is near the bottom. Hobart and increasingly Brisbane and Adelaide are likely to benefit from flow on or “refugee” demand from Sydney and Melbourne having lagged for many years.
Implications for investors
Housing has a long-term role to play in investment portfolios, but the combination of the strong gains in the last few years in Sydney and Melbourne, vulnerabilities around high household debt levels as official interest rates eventually start to rise and low net rental yields mean investors need to be careful. Sydney and Melbourne are least attractive in the short term. Best to focus on those cities and regional areas that have been left behind and where rental yields are higher.
Dr Shane Oliver
Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist AMP Capital
 
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