&nbsp;

A local Australian has spent a Lower North Shore record $15.1 million at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/elevate-hume-place-crows-nest-25-hume-street-crows-nest-nsw-2065">Elevate Hume Place</a>, the new TOD above the recently opened Crows Nest Metro Station.

The buyer amalgamated a penthouse and sub-penthouse to create the triplex apartment that will have five bedrooms, five bathrooms, a private rooftop pool, expansive terrace, and panoramic views of Sydney Harbour and skyline. The building is being created by burgeoning developer Third.i, alongside joint venture partner Phoenix Property Investors.

The buyer was drawn to Elevate’s unrivalled connectivity, situated directly above the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/crows-nest-nsw-2065">Crows Nest</a> Metro Station, and the vibrant lifestyle precinct that surrounds it. The Metro connects to the CBD in just seven minutes, and Chatswood in four.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=142550 project_image_fid=309367]

Designed by internationally acclaimed architects <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/woods-bagot">Woods Bagot</a>, Elevate draws inspiration from the ancient blue gum forests native to the area. The building is a Net Zero development, created in consultation with Indigenous communities and exceeding sustainability benchmarks. Interiors feature chevron-engineered timber flooring, natural stone benchtops, and premium Sub-Zero Wolf appliances, delivering timeless elegance and next-level comfort.

The exchange of the $15.1 million apartment, follows a recent $5 million sale, and over $30 million currently in expressions of interests. Interest in Elevate’s penthouse stock has surged, reflecting a strong appetite for ultra-luxury residences that combine design excellence with unmatched connectivity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=142550 project_image_fid=309369]

“We’re seeing a significant uptick in interest from local and international buyers who are prioritising connectivity, sustainability, and lifestyle,” said Callum Billinghurst, Head of Sales at Third.i Group.&nbsp;

“These recent sales are a testament to the vision behind Elevate. It’s not just about luxury finishes or panoramic views, it’s about creating homes that are deeply connected to the city and the community. Buyers are responding to that. They want to live somewhere that offers more than just a postcode, they want culture, convenience, and long-term value. Elevate delivers all of that, and more.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=142550 project_image_fid=297878]

As part of the Hume Place precinct, Elevate is transforming Crows Nest into Sydney’s most dynamic urban village. Elevate’s unique position directly above the metro, combined with its curated amenity offering, has made it a magnet for buyers seeking a future-proof investment and a vibrant urban lifestyle.

The next release at Elevate is expected later this year.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=142550]

“We’re seeing a significant uptick in interest from local and international buyers who are prioritising connectivity, sustainability, and lifestyle,” said Callum Billinghurst, Head of Sales at Third.i Group


Joel Robinson

Third.i & PPI set Lower North Shore apartment record with $15.1m sale at Elevate Hume Place penthouse amalgamation

Sydney developer Deicorp is set to officially open its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/hills-showground-village-castle-hill-2-mandala-parade-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Showground Village</a> precinct in Castle Hill.

NSW Premier Chris Minns will attend the opening on Sunday August 31, alongside&nbsp;Minister for Planning and Public Spaces Paul Scully, The Hills Shire Council Mayor Dr Michelle Byrne, Landcom CEO Alex Wendler, and Deicorp Founder Fouad Deiri.

Located just moments from Hills Showground Metro Station, the centre spans 9,500 sqm across four levels and features 26 specialty retailers as well as a 1,400 sqm public plaza, creating a new community meeting point for shopping, dining, fitness, and everyday convenience.&nbsp;

Showground Village forms part of the Hills Showground Station Precinct, an urban renewal initiative led by Landcom and Sydney Metro that will provide for around 2,300 new jobs over the next 20 years and around 9,000 new homes.&nbsp;

Deicorp was recently approved for another new development next door to Showground Village.

The new five residential buildings in the East Showgrounds Precinct, will see another 873 dwellings delivered, as well as&nbsp;3,500 sqm of open public space in the form of landscaped courtyards, a public park and communal outdoor recreational space including a playground, barbeque area, and outdoor seating.

“This approval will allow us to start construction on a range of beautifully designed, conveniently located apartments and create another vibrant, walkable and well-connected community,” said&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/deicorp" target="">Deicorp</a>&nbsp;Founder Fouad Deiri.

“These new homes will provide their residents with a seamless connection to jobs and services along Metro North West, and the new&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/hills-showground-village-castle-hill-2-mandala-parade-castle-hill" target="">Hills Showground Village</a>&nbsp;retail precinct currently under construction."

Deicorp has several thousand apartments in planning and under construction across Sydney, from Zetland and Five Dock to Crows Nest and Macquarie Park.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=133881]

Deicorp, NSW Premier officially open Showground Village, new retail and hospitality hub in Castle Hill

ASX-listed developer Cedar Woods is progressing its plans for its Southbank arts precinct site.&nbsp;

The developer has filed plans, which are now with the&nbsp;Department of Transport and Planning, for a new 20-level tower at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/141-151-sturt-street-southbank-vic-3006">141–151 Sturt Street</a>, a 2,718 sqm block opposite the Habitat Filter sculpture.

The proposal seeks to demolish the two-level&nbsp;commercial building, including a small supermarket and medical tenancies, and create a new building with 180 apartments and a focus on an&nbsp;active public realm and arts integration.

&nbsp;

<img alt="Southbank site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="76a72db6-91ef-43ae-827d-a9cfa72893d2" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Site.png?VersionId=DZgtB4K6BswVh0QtCs3iLjXaLp0CbcEb" />

&nbsp;

There will be a full mix of apartment configurations, including 28 studio apartments, 16 one-bedroom, 104 two-bedroom, and 32 three-bedroom units.

Retail, creative arts, and residential amenity functions are integrated across the lower levels. A food and drink tenancy is planned to front Dodds Street, while a retail tenancy fronting Sturt Street will be accessed via an elevated walkway. The first floor includes a substantial 734 sqm creative arts space, envisioned to support Melbourne’s growing cultural and digital industries.

Architecture firm <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a> has put together the plans. In their&nbsp;Urban Design Report they highlighted the project’s ambition to embed itself within Southbank’s evolving cultural fabric.

A central feature of the design is a through-block link connecting Sturt and Dodds Streets, landscaped with native plantings and embedded with universal access ramps.

“The ramp has been thoughtfully integrated as the primary access point, ensuring universal accessibility for all users,” the report noted, with the link offering “a direct response to the urban planning scheme of creating more green spaces within our communities”.

<img alt="Southbank podium" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="4d24b1b2-d69c-4a11-a11d-ec6df432221c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/podium.png?VersionId=geWoJyZDmPSLODZ_.PNJ0LvpOmyyCdpo" />

The building’s podium form responds to the mandatory height limits along Dodds Street and maintains a fine-grain interface to adjoining developments. Above the podium, the tower is articulated with recessed balconies and a focus on views toward the CBD and surrounding arts institutions. A communal rooftop recreation deck and indoor lounge are positioned on level four, adjoining seven apartments and providing over 900 sqm of resident amenity space.

Vehicle access and loading will be provided via Dodds Street, with 155 resident car spaces located across two basement levels and the first three above-ground floors. Bicycle storage is more generous, with 226 spaces distributed across resident, staff and visitor needs.

Rothelowman describes the architecture as “humanist,” with ground-level interfaces designed to encourage social interaction and provide a dignified entry for both residents and passers-by. “All street interfaces are crafted to invite and nurture human connections,” the design report states. “The façade transitions to a human scale, providing an approachable and engaging streetscape”.

Cedar Woods, while well-known for its large communities it develops outside of Australia's capital cities, they have recently developed in Melbourne's inner-ring before. They are approaching completion at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/88-leveson-north-melbourne-88-leveson-street-north-melbourne-vic-3051">88 Leveson</a>, just 15 townhouses in the heart of North Melbourne.

Cedar Woods progresses with new apartment plans in Southbank arts precinct

Brisbane developers Core Property Partners and Vector Property Australia has teamed up for Brisbane's newest apartment development.

The duo identified <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/east-brisbane-qld-4169">East Brisbane</a> as their preferred suburb, on the fringe of the Gabba Precinct, where they've just revealed BANKSII, 72 apartments opposite Raymond Park.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136432 project_image_fid=5481]

The one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments will sit in a glass-wrapped building that will also feature a rooftop with an&nbsp;infinity-edge pool, a BBQ area and alfresco dining spaces, sun lounges, and a sauna, as well as a resident-only gym and a ground-floor cafe.

Rhett Williams, Director of Vector Property Australia, said the project will lift the quality of the East Brisbane community and set a new benchmark.

"In Brisbane’s current property landscape, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/banksii-east-brisbane-169-wellington-road-east-brisbane-qld-4169">BANKSII</a> stands out through its emphasis on lifestyle-oriented living, connectivity and sophisticated design," Williams says.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136432 project_image_fid=5479]

The 10-level building has been designed by MAS Architecture. Their designs were inspired by the native Banksia flower, with the architecture and interiors reflecting the organic symmetry of its namesake flora. MAS has interpreted this throughout the building’s curved form, façade detailing and interior palette.&nbsp;

The building’s flowing geometry and natural tones are complemented by large balconies and floor-to-ceiling glazing, maximising cross-breezes, daylight and views over the city, parklands and river.

“Having a strong narrative for a building helps us architecturally,” MAS noted. "We can choose colours that come off that species of flowers. The trunk and the trees and the flower elements all are now visible in our joinery on the inside and in our architectural finishes on the outside."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136432 project_image_fid=5485]

Apartments will feature timber floors, soft porcelain tiles, brushed bronze fittings, and stone benchtops with warm veining.&nbsp;

Kitchens feature premium SMEG appliances and generous storage, while bathrooms have been designed as calming retreats with curved cabinetry and twin sinks in the master ensuites.

The building will feature a suite of rooftop and wellness amenities. Residents will have access to an infinity-edge pool, BBQ and alfresco dining areas, sun lounges and a rooftop sauna.&nbsp;

A residents-only gym will be located on the podium level, while a ground-floor café and landscaped laneway will further activate the site and improve neighbourhood connectivity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136432 project_image_fid=5488]

BANKSII will rise from a prime Wellington Road site, with the building oriented to overlook the adjacent Raymond Park and take in extensive city views. It is also on the doorstep of key&nbsp;lifestyle infrastructure, including the future Kangaroo Point Green Bridge, The Gabba stadium, and the planned Brisbane Live arena.&nbsp;

Public transport options, including ferry, bus and rail - including the future Cross River Rail Woolloongabba station - are all nearby, supporting a car-optional lifestyle just minutes from the CBD.

Williams said the team spent over a year searching for the ideal site before securing this location.

"We were attracted to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/east-brisbane-qld-4169">East Brisbane</a> as it is a vibrant and growing community that offers a perfect balance of urban convenience and natural beauty with the parklands and river on our doorstep.”

The project is part of the broader Woolloongabba Games precinct, which is undergoing significant investment in the lead-up to the 2032 Brisbane Olympics. This urban renewal, coupled with infrastructure upgrades, is expected to enhance long-term liveability and capital growth in the area.

Given the wide max of configurations, BANKSII is expected to suit everyone from first home buyers and investors to families and downsizers.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=136432]

BANKSII sales launch in booming East Brisbane apartment market

The Minns Labor Government will deliver Sydney’s first new heavy rail station in more than a decade – enabling up to 10,000 new homes by rezoning land around Woollahra and Edgecliff stations, right next to the CBD, to tackle the housing crisis and rebalance growth across the city.

Recent reports by the NSW Productivity Commission have warned that Sydney is losing twice as many young people as it is gaining, while also finding that Woollahra is the most feasible Local Government Area (LGA) in New South Wales to build new housing.

Despite this, housing approvals in Woollahra consistently lag well behind other LGAs, and the population has declined by 11 per cent over the past 50 years while Greater Sydney as a whole has grown by 74 per cent.

The new station that will be an eight-minute trip from Sydney CBD, will be located on the Eastern Suburbs train line in Woollahra, where a station build was started in the 1970s but never completed.

To enable the delivery of new homes the NSW Government will lead a rezoning of Woollahra and Edgecliff stations similar to other state led rezonings to allow additional homes to be built around the stations.

Affordable housing will also make up a proportion of development on the site with the final amount of affordable housing required, to be determined as part of the rezoning process.

The area surrounding the new station is within walking distance of major green and recreational space including Cooper, Trumper, Rushcutters Bay and Centennial Parks.

The Eastern Suburbs train line between Bondi Junction and Sydney CBD also has the lowest passenger usage rates during the AM peak of any line on the Sydney network, with only 43 per cent of operating capacity during the AM peak currently being utilised by passengers.

Sydney Water and Infrastructure NSW have confirmed there is capacity in the water and wastewater systems to accommodate the proposed 10,000 dwellings without major upgrades.

The rezoning is expected to take around two years and will further support the Government’s housing targets that rebalance the delivery of new homes around existing infrastructure.

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

Next stop Woollahra train station - delivering up to 10,000 new homes in the heart of Sydney

Houses

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None of the capital cities are at the peak of the housing market cycle, according to property valuation firm Herron Todd White’s December Month in Review.
“2017 was the year some of our hottest markets decided it was time to take a breather,” according to HTW’s report.
Sydney remains at the start of decline on the property clock, like November. Same for Melbourne, which remains at approaching the peak of market position.
Brisbane has risen one notch from start of recovery and joins the other capital cites of Adelaide, Hobart and Canberra at the rising market position.
Meanwhile, Perth has slipped one notch to reach the bottom of market cycle, joining Darwin, which is the only other capital city at the bottom.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/12/5/HTWHousesDec.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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However, HTW writes that there were "those sectors that continued to lay dormant while a few even outdid expectations”.
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Hot Sydney takes a breather, with house prices in decline: HTW December 2017 property clock

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Houses in Newcastle, the New South Wales Central Coast and Coffs Harbour are still at the peak of market, according to valuation firm Herron Todd White’s July property clock.
Houses in those three regions were at the top of HTW's property clock last month.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/13/Screen%20Shot%202017-07-13%20at%208.11.38%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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Herron Todd White said finding a property with a lazy $500,000 is becoming increasingly difficult in the NSW Central Coast region as a result of market value increases over the past two years. The analyst firm said There are still some areas where the owner- occupiers and investors are looking to buy at this level and can be accommodated, however the pool of stock is shrinking.
"We think most buys in the housing market will be found in the older suburbs at the northern end of the region," HTW said.
"Some parts of Blue Haven, San Remo, Gorokan, Toukley, Budgewoi and Charmhaven are still offering properties at or below the $500,000 mark.
"These properties are mostly single level, 2- or 3-bedroom bro or brick and tile homes, mostly with garaging on average size blocks of land. If villas or townhouses are being considered, then reasonably priced stock is available within Mardi and Watanobbi.
"The middle of the region includes suburbs like Bateau Bay, Killarney Vale, The Entrance and Long Jetty. While still available, properties with a $500,000 price tag are becoming rare and will mostly be limited to villas, townhouses and units.
"There are a few dwellings seen at this level, however these properties will be older style and most likely in need of renovations or repairs.
"Killarney Vale and Berkeley Vale are good, solid suburbs with equally good facilities.
"There is a good vibe in these locations for younger buyers and families.
"Buys at the $500,000 mark are becoming limited, yet they are still around and it’s our recommendation to look here.
"Expect an older dwelling with 3-bedrooms and room to improve. 
"With the Newcastle market running hot for a lengthy period of time, first home buyers and growing families are looking at alternative and cheaper options in outer suburbs and nearby towns. Medowie and Raymond Terrace are two of these areas both around 35 minutes drive from the Newcastle CBD.
"Half a million dollars will get you quite a bit more house and land compared to the inner suburbs of Newcastle and for growing families it is just not practical to live in a 2-bedroom unit when you can get a modern 4-bedroom house on 1000 square metres for the same price.
"Medowie’s two major economy drivers and employers are the nearby airport and RAAF base.
"A current expansion of the RAAF base and the proposed upgrade to an international airport have created more job opportunities and a subsequent high demand for property. The Bower Medowie subdivision which recently opened stage one sold out all 31 lots in 48 hours with some buyers camping out to ensure purchase. "
 
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Houses in Newcastle, NSW Central Coast and Coffs Harbour still at market peak: HTW

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Nationally, 8.0 percent of houses and 12.7 percent of units were resold at a loss over the September 2016 quarter, according to CoreLogic's latest Pain and Gain report.
The property data firm says that splitting this out across the capital cities and regional areas shows that for houses, 5.6 percent resold at a loss in the capital cities and 11.7 percent resold at a loss outside of the capital cities.
For units, 10.2 percent resold at a loss in the capital cities compared to 18.4 percent across regional areas of the country.
Sydney was the only major region nationally in which the proportion of units sold at a loss over the September 2016 quarter was lower than houses.
In many of the regions analysed the difference was significant with Melbourne, Brisbane, regional NT and the Australian Capital Territory recording a proportion of loss-making resales for units that was more than double that of houses.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/30/Corelogic-05.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/01/30/Corelogic-05.jpg" alt="">
The historical data indicates that it has been extremely rare for resales of houses to record a higher proportion of loss than units.
This is reflective of the fact that house values have typically increased at a more rapid pace than units.
It is also reflective of the fact that historically houses have recorded high buyer demand against a backdrop of constrained supply.
In a market like Sydney where more units have been built than houses over the past two decades - and the gap between house and unit prices is substantial - CoreLogic noted the trend had changed recently with units proving less likely to resell at a loss than houses.
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Units resold more often at a loss than houses everywhere but Sydney: CoreLogic Pain and Gain

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Despite a median house price of $706,000 and apartment price of $545,500, many of Melbourne’s desirable suburbs boast homes at $200,000-plus, the REIV pinpointing the inner north and south of the city.
Melbourne’s most affordable one-bedroom apartments are located in Carlton – which recorded a June median price of $207,750.
Carnegie, in Melbourne’s south-east, delivered a median for similar sized apartments of $292,500.
“Affordable property around Melbourne is not restricted to the outer suburbs," REIV chief Enzo Raimondo said. 
"Apartments allow first home buyers to get a foothold on the property ladder, especially in highly sought after areas such as Carlton,” he said. 
<a href="https://www.realestateview.com.au/portal/search?rm=search&amp;journeyplanner=0&amp;jpwkend=0&amp;jpday=1&amp;jpdate=1&amp;jpstime=0&amp;jpetime=0&amp;P=1&amp;ptr=r&amp;con=D&amp;portalview=residential&amp;portalsection=sold&amp;bs=12&amp;sub=Carlton+VIC+3053%2C+&amp;sur=bord&amp;pt=uni&amp;prl=0&amp;prh=300&amp;bel=0&amp;beh=0" target="_blank">Realestateview.com.au </a>sales show a strong student accommodation presence.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Carlton's $207,000 apartment median 

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Ipswich houses are now in a rising market timeframe, according to the HTW August 2015 property clock.
And Mackay houses are now deemed by the valuers as in decline.  
 
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mick.cee-iDmgDDAmu8

Ipswich houses rising while Mackay is in decline: HTW August 2015 property clock

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Capital gains growth has returned to the highest level since April last year, according to CoreLogic RP Data's August 2015 Housing Market and Economic Update.
The review found house capital gains over the last 12 months was 11.6% and units 7.2%.
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Annual property capital gain back to April 2014 highs: CoreLogic RP Data

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The latest capital city data relating to the average number of days it takes to sell a residential property shows that in May homes were selling at close to their fastest rate on record driven by record sales rates in Sydney and Melbourne.
Acacia Gardens in Sydney was the fastest sellling suburb for houses across Australia, according to CoreLogic RP Data's analyst Cameron Kusher.
Recent sales included a <a href="https://www.realestateview.com.au/Real-Estate/50-wilson-road-acacia-gardens/Property-Details-sold-residential-8548856" target="_blank">three bedroom brick home for $765,000</a>, set five minutes drive to Stanhope Village Centre and 10 minutes to Rouse Hill Town Centre.
<a href="/news">The median price is at a record $678,000</a> having been at $515,000 in early 2013.
The average time on market figure is measured by the difference between the initial listing date of a property for sale and the contract date.
CoreLogic RP Data notes if the days on market are short it is typically indicative of a seller’s market where homes are selling rapidly and buyers have little time to ponder a purchase decision.
When the average selling time starts to rise, buyers will typically have more scope to deliberate their decision and negotiate on the purchase price.
Short selling times will typically coincide with rising prices and long selling times will generally see less upwards price pressures.
The latest combined capital city data showed that homes were on average taking 37 days to sell. The rate of sale was close to a record low and across the two largest cities homes were selling at their fastest rate on record at 26 days in Sydney and 32 days in Melbourne. It is important to note that these figures are focussed solely on private treaty sales and don’t include properties sold at auction.
The suburb level data to April also highlights a rapid rate of sale across certain capital city suburbs.
"The chart highlights that the suburbs with the shortest days on market have much lower figures in Sydney and Melbourne relative to the remaining capital cities," he said.
'The other point to note is that in most cities it is either the more affordable of ‘middle’ priced suburbs where the rate of sale is quickest.
"It reflects the fact that those areas with the largest pool of buyers are typically going to achieve sales quicker," Cameron Kusher said.
<a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/resources/property-pulse/article-graphs-img/2015-07-20--01--houses-top5-capital-city-suburbs-shortest-days-on-market-April2015.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
Houses | Top 5 capital city suburbs with the shortest days on market, April 2015
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/resources/property-pulse/article-graphs-img/2015-07-20--01--houses-top5-capital-city-suburbs-shortest-days-on-market-April2015.jpg">
 
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Sold in 16 days - little known Acacia Gardens headlines Australia's fastest selling suburbs

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Melbourne house prices are tipped to fall 9%, while Sydney prices will climb further and then hold their value, analysis for an unpublished paper under review for the Economic Record has found.
It covers price forecasts for freestanding houses. 
Sydney prices would "continue to rise till the end of 2015 then start plateauing with no anticipated sharp falls".
But Melbourne prices could begin falling almost immediately, falling 9.2% in the year ahead, while Brisbane's prices will fall 8.1% and Perth's 5.2%, according to the analysis.
Adelaide, Hobart and Canberra will continue to climb slowly.
<div>The research by Abbas Valadkhani of Swinburne University, Ronald Ratti from the University of Western Sydney and Greg Costello from Curtin University looked at monthly house price data back to 1995.</div>
<div> </div>
<div id="adspot-300x250-pos3">"This doesn't predict every see-saw movement," Dr Valadkhani told Fairfax Media's economics editor Peter Martin.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"It only predicts the general direction of prices. If it could predict exact movements we would be multimillionaires and wouldn't need to work in academia. The actual prices could be a little bit above or a little bit below the trend we are predicting."</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The authors believe their model is the first to be updatable each month, possibly providing advance notice of turning points.</div>
Asked by Peter Martin why Sydney house prices would keep climbing and then plateau while Melbourne prices fell, Dr Valadkhani said the model didn't give reasons. However, its predictions were consistent with  continuing shortages and oversupply.
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