<section data-scroll-anchor="false" data-testid="conversation-turn-48" data-turn="assistant" data-turn-id="request-WEB:55d7c6ac-8e6d-4881-ad49-0ed9bf66d1cc-23" dir="auto">
Melbourne’s apartment market entered 2026 with renewed momentum, but the recovery is uneven, policy-driven, and increasingly shaped by constrained supply.

According to the RPM Apartments &amp; Townhomes Market Report (April 2026), apartments have begun to outperform detached housing on key metrics,yet that performance is occurring against a backdrop of falling approvals and a tightening development pipeline.

At the end of 2025, Melbourne unit values reached a three-year high of $656,500, recording quarterly growth of two per cent. That figure edged ahead of the 1.8 per cent growth recorded in the house market over the same period, marking a notable shift in relative performance. While modest in absolute terms, the outperformance is significant given the sustained dominance of houses through much of the previous cycle.

This shift has been driven in large part by policy. The federal government’s expanded five per cent Deposit Scheme has had a disproportionate impact on apartment demand, particularly in Melbourne where the $950,000 price cap captures a large share of medium- and high-density stock.

As RPM notes, the scheme “heavily favours medium and high-density dwellings,” effectively accelerating demand in the apartment sector.

The impact is most visible in buyer activity. Victoria recorded more than 43,000 new housing loans in Q4 2025, the highest quarterly volume since mid-2022 and one of the strongest results in over a decade. This lift was broad-based across all buyer types, with first home buyers, owner-occupiers and investors all returning to the market with greater confidence.

This surge in demand has flowed directly into apartment pricing, particularly in Melbourne’s middle and outer rings. Middle-ring unit values reached approximately $757,500, a four-year high, while outer-ring units climbed to a record $650,000. Quarterly growth of 2.9 per cent and 2.5 per cent respectively significantly outpaced both the inner ring (0.8 per cent) and the broader house market.

&nbsp;

<img alt="RPM" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="4628dde5-ad63-4b03-b18e-77d0f750e2aa" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-04-24%20at%209.23.32%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=ig6mqc7Oz7UaszRuzULrGtLPUxGf4NJC" />

&nbsp;

The divergence between apartments and houses is also being shaped by affordability. Detached housing remains out of reach for many buyers, pushing demand toward apartments as a more accessible entry point into well-located suburbs. This is particularly evident among first home buyers and downsizers, both of whom are increasingly prioritising location, amenity and lifestyle over land size.

At the same time, population growth continues to underpin demand. Victoria added more than 122,000 residents in the year to Q3 2025, with Melbourne attracting both overseas migrants and interstate movers, partly due to its relative affordability compared to other capitals.

&nbsp;

<img alt="Population" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="49e10567-a8b3-47c3-afbd-290f0bb62c49" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-04-24%20at%209.22.25%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=.2Drmko4TPh02X55JdF3mIC1EcG0ZfGl" />

However, the most critical factor shaping the apartment market is not demand, it is supply.

Apartment approvals across Greater Melbourne have fallen sharply, signalling a constrained pipeline of future stock. In Q4 2025, just 2,339 apartments were approved, down 20 per cent on the previous quarter and 47 per cent lower than the same period a year earlier. On an annual basis, 11,066 apartment approvals were recorded, an improvement on the previous year, but still well below medium- and long-term averages.

&nbsp;

<img alt="Apartment approvals" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="12f2e7bc-fe01-40c0-80b5-9e829b279d98" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-04-24%20at%209.21.56%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=5mnIXkXGoDgIJdAFhA0alm0cSKzEytqZ" />

This decline reflects a broader contraction cycle that has been underway since 2020. As RPM notes, “apartment approvals appear to be sliding back into a downward trend,” with developers increasingly focused on launching and completing existing projects rather than initiating new ones.

The reasons are well understood. Construction costs have risen more than 20 per cent since 2021, driven largely by labour shortages and material price escalation. At the same time, financing conditions have tightened, with lenders requiring higher contingencies and taking a more cautious approach to risk. Combined with recent interest rate rises, these factors have made feasibility more challenging, particularly for higher-density projects.

This dynamic is creating a disconnect in the market. Demand for apartments—particularly at the more affordable end—is strengthening, while the pipeline of new supply is weakening. In the short term, this may limit the number of new projects coming to market. Over the medium term, however, it is likely to support price resilience and potentially further outperformance relative to houses.

There are some signs of policy-driven supply response. The introduction of Victoria’s Mid-Rise Code, which streamlines approvals for four- to six-storey developments, is expected to improve delivery in well-serviced middle-ring locations. However, this is unlikely to materially offset the broader decline in apartment approvals in the near term.

Despite the positive momentum at the end of 2025, the outlook for 2026 has become more complex. Two interest rate rises early in the year have already impacted consumer confidence, while broader cost pressures, particularly energy and fuel, are feeding through to construction and development costs.

“Victoria’s built form market ended 2025 on a high, but early 2026 rate rises quickly reversed the momentum,” RPM notes.

The implication is that while apartments are currently outperforming houses, the trajectory of that outperformance will depend on how these competing forces evolve. Policy support and affordability are clearly working in favour of apartments, but constrained supply and rising costs are likely to shape the pace and nature of future growth.

What is increasingly clear is that apartments are playing a more central role in Melbourne’s housing market. As population growth continues and affordability pressures intensify, higher-density housing is becoming not just an alternative to detached homes, but a primary solution to the city’s housing needs.
</section>

Joel Robinson

Units lead Melbourne price growth as apartments outperform houses: RPM

Brunswick is set for some of its largest apartments ever delivered with the upcoming new development Frith &amp; Howarth, where the apartments are around 20 per cent larger than what has come before it in the sought-after suburb.

Developer Young Group focused its design on Frith &amp; Howarth around size and scale, but within a boutique building, to create a mini neighbourhood within the mid-rise development. There are just 24 apartments in the mid-rise building on Victoria Street, a short walk to Brunswick Station and the cafe and dining strip along Sydney Road.

“We spent hours comparing what’s currently on the market so we could offer genuine points of difference,” Young Group says, pointing to room sizing, storage, and functional planning as key drivers behind the design.

All of the two-bedroom apartments in the building have been snapped up, with just the large three- and four-bedroom apartments, with the biggest floorplans and best outlooks, remaining.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134317 project_image_fid=354139]

Apartments open directly into open-plan living zones where full-height glazing draws light deep into the apartment. Sliding doors extend the space outward to terraces, many oriented toward the adjacent park or back toward the city skyline.

Kitchens sit within this central space, anchored by sculptural island benches that reference the building’s faceted exterior language. Storage is integrated across multiple layers, overhead cabinetry, concealed joinery, and, in larger configurations, dedicated sculleries or butler’s pantries.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134317 project_image_fid=354137]

The penthouse is the largest ever offered in Brunswick. The penthouse measures nearly 400 sqm all-up, with 242 sqm of internal space complimented by a further 149 sqm of terraces.

It spans the whole top floor and has four bedrooms, four bathrooms, and parking for four cars.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134317 project_image_fid=354133]

Low maintenance resident amenity has been created in the form of a landscaped rooftop, complete with&nbsp;vegetable plots, outdoor cooking areas, and aflresco dining spaces, designed as a place for neighbours to gather outside of their homes.

“To enable connection with neighbours, generous rooftop gardens with communal spaces and outdoor cooking areas offer a chance to develop a sense of community,” says John Patrick, Principal of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/john-patrick-landscape-architects">John Patrick Landscape Architects</a>.&nbsp;

“Private open spaces with a selection of native and exotic plantings and gorgeous city views on the rooftop create a high-end aesthetic, with a low maintenance lifestyle. The perfect balance, so that residents can enjoy a serene living space.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134317 project_image_fid=354134]

Sustainability is embedded at both the building and apartment level. <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/frith-howarth-288-290-victoria-street-brunswick-vic-3056">Frith &amp; Howarth</a> is one of only a small number of all-electric residential developments in Brunswick, supported by solar infrastructure, EV-ready parking, and high-performance glazing. These measures sit alongside less visible systems such as rainwater reuse and high-grade insulation, reducing long-term operational costs while maintaining consistent internal conditions.

Positioned within walking distance of Brunswick Station, Route 96 trams, and established retail along Sydney Road and Barkly Square, the development balances access to transport with proximity to open space, a combination that has become increasingly difficult to secure in inner-city sites.

“These exquisite homes are nestled in a culturally diverse neighbourhood, with parklands and nature right on your doorstep,” says Young Group.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134317]

Frith & Howarth to deliver Brunswick’s largest apartments

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/prince-parade-by-mirvac-brunswick-701-park-street-brunswick-vic-3056">Prince &amp; Parade</a> in Brunswick is entering its final stages of construction, with the removal of the project’s last tower crane and the unveiling of the building’s full façade marking a significant milestone ahead of completion this coming spring.

The Park Street development, designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bates-smart">Bates Smart</a>&nbsp;and Mirvac Design with landscaping by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/jack-merlo">Jack Merlo</a>, is now largely structurally complete, with internal works progressing across the 169-apartment project opposite Princes Park.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/mirvac-construction">Mirvac Construction</a> Project Manager Sam Payne said the latest update reflects a transition from structure to refinement.

“Since our last update, all façade panels have been installed and the scaffolding and gantry has come down, unveiling the building in its full form for the very first time,” Payne said.

“A significant milestone was reached this month with the removal of our final tower crane, signalling the completion of major structural works and a pivotal step forward in the building’s transformation.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4802 project_image_fid=366856]

Apartments are now well advanced internally, with joinery completed to level eight and tiling to level six, alongside the delivery of a prototype apartment used to set the benchmark for the remaining residences.

This next phase coincides with the release of a completed furnished residence, styled by MCM House, and the introduction of private buyer tours, giving purchasers a clearer understanding of the finished product ahead of settlement.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/prince-parade-by-mirvac-brunswick-701-park-street-brunswick-vic-3056">Prince &amp; Parade</a> will comprise 169 one to four-bedroom apartments, with completion targeted for early spring. Interiors focus on natural materials and muted tones with two design schemes, while kitchens and bathrooms adopt a restrained palette anchored by stone, timber and textured finishes.

Bates Smart Director Jeffery Copolov said the project reflects a shared design direction centred on liveability and sustainability.

“Blending Mirvac and Bates Smart’s focus on wellness and sustainability, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/prince-parade-by-mirvac-brunswick-701-park-street-brunswick-vic-3056">Prince &amp; Parade</a> offers a new kind of conscious, elevated living in Melbourne’s inner north,” Copolov said.

<a href="https://www.urban.com.au/new-apartments/prince-parade-by-mirvac-brunswick-701-park-street-brunswick-vic-3056">Prince &amp; Parade</a> presents Mirvac's third parkside collaboration with&nbsp;<a href="https://www.urban.com.au/architects/bates-smart">Bates Smart</a>&nbsp;in Victoria.&nbsp;Their previous collaborations delivered two of the city’s landmark apartment buildings: The Melburnian opposite Kings Domain and The Eastbourne on Fitzroy Gardens.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4802 project_image_fid=366857]

A key focus of the development is its landscape-led amenity offering. The central courtyard, spanning around 600 sqm, will feature established trees and planting grown off-site, alongside communal lawns and seating areas designed for everyday use.

Development Manager James Gardner said the outdoor spaces are central to the project’s lifestyle positioning.

“<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/prince-parade-by-mirvac-brunswick-701-park-street-brunswick-vic-3056">Prince &amp; Parade</a> isn’t just a home, it’s a complete lifestyle offering, and the resident amenity is just one example of the elevated living experience the soon-to-be-complete building will be known for,” Gardner said.

The courtyard connects to a series of shared indoor and outdoor spaces, including a residents’ lounge, dining room, library and secondary west-facing garden area, designed as extensions of the apartments themselves.

Located directly opposite Princes Park and around four kilometres from the CBD, the development places residents within one of Melbourne’s most established inner-north precincts, with access to open space, transport and the retail and hospitality offerings of Brunswick and Carlton.

With façade works complete and landscaping and final finishes now underway, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/prince-parade-by-mirvac-brunswick-701-park-street-brunswick-vic-3056">Prince &amp; Parade</a> is moving into its most active construction phase, with permanent services and external works to be finalised in the coming months ahead of completion in spring.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=4802]

Mirvac’s latest landmark, Prince & Parade Brunswick, enters final construction phase

Boutique Perth developer ADC has unveiled its latest project.

The developer, which focuses on bringing apartments to some of Perth's most premium inner-city and riverside suburbs, has launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/mos-lane-mosman-park-46-manning-street-mosman-park-wa-6012">Mos Lane</a>, 68 luxury apartments and townhouses in the heart of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mosman-park-wa-6012">Mosman Park</a>.

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Alongside the one-, two-, three- and four-bedroom apartments, the development will also include five two-level townhomes and two luxe penthouses. ADC is also introducing a significant retail offering for residents through Mos Lane Village, which will feature a wellness studio, fish and chips shop, barber, and florist, adding a layer of amenity not typically found in the predominantly residential Mosman Park area.

Construction has already commenced on the project, which sits just a short walk from the Swan River, Mosman Park Bowls Club, and Mosman Park Golf Course.

House Agency Directors Tom House and Lachlan McDonald say they are fielding the majority of buyer interest from local downsizers, as well as buyers with a long-standing affinity for Mosman Park.
</section>

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364591]

Mos Lane will comprise two buildings; Samson House and Manning House, which have been designed by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/nelson-koo">Nelson + Koo</a>, an emerging design consultancy specialising in the masterplanning and design of mixed use places and spaces.

The two buildings adopt distinct architectural responses to their surroundings. Manning House references the strong roof forms of nearby homes, with floorplates oriented to maximise light and long-range views, while Samson House is organised around a central atrium designed to bring daylight deep into the building and create a greater sense of openness.

At ground level, the inclusion of five townhomes introduces a typology more commonly associated with Mosman Park’s established streets, each with private courtyards and direct frontage, offering a transition between traditional housing and apartment living.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364103]

Interiors have been led by Melbourne-based Hecker Guthrie, with an emphasis on practical, long-term liveability. Residences incorporate sculpted joinery, generous storage and flexible multi-purpose rooms that can adapt to changing household needs, whether for working from home, guest accommodation or additional living space.

Material selections draw on a restrained palette of textured stone, timber and neutral tones, with options for lighter or darker schemes. Detailing such as fluted glass, full-height joinery and integrated appliances is intended to balance functionality with a more refined residential finish.

Outdoor spaces are a consistent feature across the development, with balconies and terraces designed for dining and entertaining, and larger apartments incorporating outdoor kitchens. Orientation has been considered to allow residents to choose between morning or afternoon sun, while mature street trees and landscaped communal areas contribute to a softer streetscape.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364107]

Shared amenities are positioned to support both day-to-day convenience and occasional use. These include a private dining room with a caterer’s kitchen, alfresco entertaining areas, and a bookable guest suite for visiting friends and family. Additional practical features such as a resident workshop, storage facilities, car and pet wash areas, and concierge-style services for cleaning and dry-cleaning collection reflect a focus on usability.

Positioned between the Swan River and Cottesloe Beach, and within reach of schools such as Iona Presentation College and St Hilda’s Anglican School, the development is aimed at a broad buyer group, from downsizers seeking a lower-maintenance alternative to larger homes, through to local residents looking to remain in the area in a different housing format.

Mos Lane represents one of the more significant additions to Mosman Park’s limited pipeline, combining new housing supply with a village-style retail centre in a suburb where opportunities for large-scale redevelopment are relatively constrained.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=148957]

Living village precinct set for Mosman Park as ADC launches Mos Lane

An entity linked to I&amp;D Group Founder Ivan Filipović has filed plans for a new residential development at 188–202 Swan Street in Cremorne, targeting a prominent site within the tightly held Swan Street activity corridor.

The proposal seeks to redevelop the consolidated Swan Street landholding into a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/188-202-swan-street-cremorne-vic-3121">high-density mixed-use project</a>, replacing a series of existing commercial buildings with a significantly scaled residential outcome. The planning submission positions the development as a response to increasing demand for housing in well-connected inner-urban locations, particularly within established activity centres.

Plans outline the construction of a 14-storey building delivering 165 apartments above a four-level basement, alongside a ground-floor retail and commercial offering designed to activate the streetscape. A key feature of the scheme is a new north–south pedestrian link connecting Swan Street to Railway Place, intended to “enhance permeability and provide an active, publicly accessible connection through the site.”

<img alt="First Look: Plans lodged for Ivan Filipović-linked Cremorne apartment project on Swan Street" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7332a8f8-dd2b-483d-b86e-320658838c84" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/cremorne.png?VersionId=cXm8vAaRdHh.LpYVbecrRkjckgu9mtAF" />

The development will retain part of the existing built form at 198–200 Swan Street, while the remainder of the site will be cleared to accommodate the new structure. Basement levels will provide 196 car spaces and 113 bicycle spaces, with vehicle access from Railway Place. Communal amenity is distributed across the building, including a shared outdoor area on Level 1 and a rooftop terrace for residents.

Ground level uses include retail tenancies fronting Swan Street and the pedestrian link, a residential lobby, and a flexible commercial space positioned to support community-oriented uses. The planning report notes this space “could be offered as a flexible space within the development for community groups,” supporting short-term or longer-term occupancy arrangements.

<img alt="First Look: Plans lodged for Ivan Filipović-linked Cremorne apartment project on Swan Street" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="8208bf7b-cc67-485d-ad0f-1d73a74c907f" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/cremorne%20lane.png?VersionId=69ctjC0txXv0zCHy7qQUpJyGwvPAT7gw" />

The site sits within the Swan Street Major Activity Centre, surrounded by a mix of retail, hospitality, and emerging residential development, and directly opposite tram services along Swan Street. East Richmond Station is located to the south, providing strong rail connectivity, while the broader Cremorne precinct continues to evolve as a mixed-use hub.

I&amp;D Group, founded by Ivan Filipović, is regarded as one of Victoria’s largest formwork contractors, partnering with major construction firms across large-scale public and private developments. The Swan Street proposal signals a move into development-backed opportunities tied to strategic inner-city sites.

First Look: Plans lodged for Cremorne apartment project on Swan Street

Household Finance

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The latest ratios of household finances highlight that the ratio of debt to disposable income is at a record high however, the value of household assets is also at a record high level.
With record low interest rates, the ratio of interest payments to disposable income is the lowest it has been since early 2003.
The ratio of household and housing debt to disposable incomes are each at historic highs of 186.3 percent and 133.8 percent respectively with the ratios increasing by 3.4 percent and 4.3 percent over the past year; 
Over the period from 1988 to 2015 standard variable mortgage rates have fallen dramatically and that has surely contributed to household’s preparedness to take on more debt.
<a href="/images/2016/03/31/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-31%20at%201.11.34%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/03/31/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-31%20at%201.11.34%20PM.png" alt="">
 
Over recent years the ratio of interest payments to disposable income has been falling with the ratios for households and housing now sitting at their lowest levels since 2003. The higher ratio of interest payments currently compare to 1988 when interest rates were substantially higher.
This is reflective of the much higher cost for household assets, particularly the cost of residential housing.
The data shows that although households have significant debt, particularly for housing, the value of the assets they hold is substantial. The ratio of household debt to disposable income is currently 186.3 percent however, the ratio of household assets to disposable income 862.8 percent, the highest it has ever been.
Similarly, the ratio of housing debt to disposable income is 133.8 percent however; the ratio of housing assets to disposable income is 471.3 percent.
What is interesting is that the ratio of household assets to disposable income is still lower than its previous peak in December 2007 at 476.2% percent, however, it is nudging back up towards its previous record high.
The value of household assets is significantly greater than the value of the debt. Based on this data, the ratio of household debt to assets is 21.6 percent and the ratio of housing debt to housing assets is 28.4 percent.
<a href="/images/2016/03/31/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-31%20at%201.16.17%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/03/31/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-31%20at%201.16.17%20PM.png" alt="">
 
Australian households are heavily indebted due largely to residential housing and while high; the value of the assets held is much greater than the debt. It’s important to consider that this is a national view.
Across different regions the ratios are likely to be substantially different. Furthermore, lower interest rates and a fairly strong labour market over recent decades have contributed to a willingness to borrow. Should either of these factors to change it could lead to a dramatic deterioration in the value of these assets while of course the debt would remain.
Importantly, mortgage arrears remain low and the Reserve Bank has reported that the typical mortgage holder is currently more than two years ahead on their mortgage repayments. This coupled with higher rates of household savings provide a potential buffer if unemployment were to rise sharply or interest rates began to increase.
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.
 
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ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Household and housing debt reach new record highs: CoreLogic RP Data's Cameron Kusher

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Large inflows of relatively young migrants have supported population growth and increased the share of the population aged 25–34 over the 2010s (Graph 2).[1] Despite this, the population has continued to grow older on average because the large baby boomer generation have begun to move into the 65 and over category and because of the ongoing trend increase in life expectancy. By contrast, people aged 35–54 have made only a very modest contribution to growth in the population, unlike in prior decades when the baby boomers moved through this age group. As a result, the number of people at retirement age per 100 working-age people (those aged between 15 and 64) has risen from around 20 to 25 over the past decade and is expected to rise further over the next decade.
<div> </div>
<img src="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2020/mar/images/graph-0320-8-02.svg" alt="Graph 2: Changes in Population Age Segments" width="620" height="539">
Alongside these demographic developments over the past decade, there have been noticeable changes in key economic indicators for the household sector. Disposable income grew at a reasonably strong pace over the 1990s and 2000s, but income growth has been subdued over the 2010s (Graph 3). Growth in household consumption has also slowed. The saving ratio increased noticeably starting from the mid 2000s, but has declined more recently. A range of structural and cyclical factors have contributed to these trends. These include: the global financial crisis; the mining boom and its unwinding; higher levels of household debt; weakness in non-labour income; growth in household income tax revenue; and the recent downturn in the housing market.[2] Considering the contribution demographics have made to these trends, alongside these other factors, can help us further understand developments to date and how they might evolve in the future.
<div> </div>
<img src="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2020/mar/images/graph-0320-8-03.svg" alt="Graph 3: Household Consumption and Income" width="620" height="500">
This article uses an Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) dataset that combines household-level information from the Household Expenditure Survey (HES) and the Survey of Income and Housing (SIH) with the national accounts to explore what effect demographic changes are likely to have had on household consumption and income over recent decades.[3] In this dataset, the relevant household information, such as age, is grouped according to a designated ‘household reference person’.[4] This dataset is broadly representative of the Australian household sector and includes persons living in non-private dwellings (such as nursing homes) and persons in very remote communities, who are often out-of-scope in micro datasets.[5]Consistent with the changes in the aggregate population, the share of households with reference persons' aged 55 and above in this dataset has increased from around one-third in 2004 to nearly half in 2018. The descriptive statistics offered by these data do not allow demographic effects to be isolated from other variations between households that may have been correlated with age. Nonetheless, they allow an examination of the average differences between households of different ages and how those differences contribute to the aggregate household sector and economy.
Income and consumption tend to decline with age …
Some portion of the slowing in consumption growth over the past decade is likely to be due to the ageing of the population. This is because the distribution of average household consumption by age in Australia follows a hump-shaped pattern: spending generally increases through the working life of a household, rising noticeably for households aged 35–54 in the stage of their life where many households support children and then declines once they retire. The decline in consumption is particularly pronounced for households aged 65 and over (Graph 4).[6] The reasons for a reduction in average spending for the 65 and above category would vary by household, but some likely explanations include a reduction in income as people enter retirement (discussed further below), lower weekly expenses (such as transport and eating out) after exit from the workforce, no longer needing to support children and actual or perceived inadequate savings for retirement.[7] The decline in the consumption of older households is not as large when incorporating social transfers provided by the government (discussed further below).
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<img src="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2020/mar/images/graph-0320-8-04.svg" alt="Graph 4: Real Household Consumption" width="620" height="519">
The ageing of the population is also likely to have made some contribution to the slowing in income growth over the past decade. Similar to the distribution of consumption by age, household income generally increases through the working life of a household and then declines as they approach retirement (Graph 5). Households aged 65 and above typically have lower levels of income than those aged 25–54, and around 40 per cent of households 65 and over are in the lowest income quintile.[8] However, these older households are typically wealthier; only 25 per cent are also in the lowest two wealth quintiles.
<div> </div>
<img src="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2020/mar/images/graph-0320-8-05.svg" alt="Graph 5: Real Household Income" width="620" height="536">
However, stronger income growth over the past decade has supported higher consumption growth for older households
The impact of the growing number of older households on aggregate consumption has been partly mitigated by a shift in the shape of the lifetime consumption distribution over the past decade. Average consumption per household aged 55 years and above has grown nearly twice as fast as the average of other households (Graph 6). In 2017/18, households aged 55–64 consumed more on average ($123,000) than those aged 35–44 ($111,000), although less than those aged 45–55 ($128,000). Stronger consumption growth for older households has partly reflected stronger growth in their incomes, compared with other age groups. Changes in household composition (such as children staying at home for longer or increased life expectancy) may be another contributing factor to consumption growth per household.
By contrast, the youngest households (those aged 24 and below) on average saw no growth at all in their consumption and a decline in their real income in the six years following the global financial crisis. The smaller share of the population comprised of these households, relative to prior decades, means that the effect on aggregate consumption has been smaller than it otherwise would have been.
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<img src="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2020/mar/images/graph-0320-8-06.svg" alt="Graph 6: Real Household Consumption" width="620" height="505">
Aggregate growth in household disposable income has slowed noticeably over the past decade and has been lower than consumption growth for most of the past five years. But, as noted above, income growth across the age distribution has varied. Income growth was stronger for older households than for younger ones (Graph 7).[9] For example, households aged 15–24 had more disposable income than households aged 65 and over in 2003/04, but in 2017/18 earned about the same, and they still had significantly less wealth. As in the case of consumption, stronger growth in older households' incomes has reduced the effect of the ageing population on aggregate income.
For households aged 55–64 years, a key driver of stronger growth in overall income relative to other households has been strong growth in labour income. This has been supported by increased participation in the labour force, mainly by women. The female participation rate for those aged 55–64 years has increased from around 30 per cent in 1999 to a little more than 60 per cent in 2020.[10] For households aged 65 and above, growth in income over the past 15 years has also been supported by strong growth in non-labour sources of income such as financial income, rental income and social assistance income.[11]
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<img src="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2020/mar/images/graph-0320-8-07.svg" alt="Graph 7: Household Real Income Growth by Age" width="620" height="577">
Financial income has grown more strongly than any other source of household income over the past 15 years. All age groups have benefited, but older households benefited the most because they hold more financial wealth, on average. Total financial returns for households over this period would be even larger if capital gains were included, but financial income in the national accounts excludes capital gains. This understates the total financial returns of households, particularly for older households because they receive the largest share of their income from financial wealth.
Older households save less of their current income than younger households
Households across most age groups increased their rate of saving in the mid 2000s, likely driven by precautionary motives, lower expectations for future income growth and declines in wealth.[12] Over the following six years, households aged 35–44 years increased their rate of saving further while the rate of saving for older and younger households was relatively unchanged (Graph 8). While older households generally save less than younger households, older households still had positive savings over the past 15 years, on average.
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<img src="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2020/mar/images/graph-0320-8-08.svg" alt="Graph 8: Household Saving Ratio" width="620" height="516">
Since 2015/16, the aggregate saving rate in Australia has declined, as disposable income growth has been weaker than consumption growth. While distributional data on saving are not available for the past couple of years, historical experience suggests that demographics are likely to have contributed in some part to the further decline in the saving rate since 2016, as the share of older households, who save less, has increased. The relative increase in the saving rates of younger households over this time has mitigated this effect on the aggregate saving rate. A simple scenario that uses 2015/16 saving per household and population shares from 2003/04 suggests that in the absence of changes in demographics over this time, the saving rate would have been 1 percentage point higher in 2015/16. As the population continues to age this may weigh further on the saving rate.
Superannuation has also supported consumption by older households
Superannuation has played an important role in households' choices for smoothing consumption as they approach and enter retirement, giving them the option of drawing down their superannuation to fund spending above their income. The drawdown of super has supported older households to consume more on average (Graph 9).
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<img src="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2020/mar/images/graph-0320-8-09.svg" alt="Graph 9: Household Finances" width="620" height="593">
Growth in household consumption has been supported by strong growth in asset prices, particularly for older households
Past research has identified a relationship between household wealth and consumption.[13] Net wealth has increased for all age groups, although the largest gains in dollar terms have accrued to older households (Graph 10). The average Australian household's wealth – under the definitions in the national accounts – increased in nominal terms from around $500,000 in 2004 to close to $1.1 million in 2015/16. The average wealth of households aged 15–34 increased by around $90,000 over this period, while for households aged 55 and above it increased by $630,000. Older households have accumulated considerably more wealth than households of the same age in the past, consistent with the increase in their consumption.[14]
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<img src="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2020/mar/images/graph-0320-8-10.svg" alt="Graph 10: Net Wealth by Age" width="620" height="439">
Housing wealth increased strongly from 2003/04 to 2017/18, but debt owed by households grew even more strongly. While households aged 65 and above hold the least debt on average, these households (and those aged 55–64) have also seen a trend increase in the average housing debt per household relative to households of their age in the past, meaning that older households are now approaching or in retirement with more debt, on average (Graph 11).
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<img src="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2020/mar/images/graph-0320-8-11.svg" alt="Graph 11: Real Household Debt" width="620" height="552">
The growth in housing wealth and debt in part reflects increased ownership of investment properties by older households. For older households, housing debt is roughly evenly split between owner-occupied and other properties, while for households aged 54 and below housing debt is largely for the property they live in. Data from the Australian Taxation Office indicate that increased ownership of investment properties over the past two decades has been driven by those aged 50 and above (Graph 12).
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<img src="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2020/mar/images/graph-0320-8-12.svg" alt="Graph 12: Residential Rental Properties" width="620" height="539">
Social welfare has also supported consumption by older households
Households across all age groups are supported by sizeable social transfers from the state. Consideration of these public transfers gives a more complete picture of the set of resources available to households and helps explain the relatively resilient private consumption of older households because private income and consumption has been supplemented by support from the state.
Social assistance income provided to households aged 65 and above has increased around 30 per cent in real terms over the period 2003/04 to 2017/18 (Graph 13). Pension income has grown in excess of both the consumer price index and the wage price index since 2003, partly reflecting a number of policy changes.[15] Social assistance income declined a little in 2017/18 for older households, on average. This seems to reflect, at least in part, a larger share of part pensions.
Growth in nominal social assistance income has been subdued for all other households since 2003/04; in real terms, it has declined a little. The typical household aged 64 and below receives no social assistance income from the state. While unemployment benefits did increase a little towards the end of the mining boom, these only account for 15 per cent of social assistance.
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<img src="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2020/mar/images/graph-0320-8-13.svg" alt="Graph 13: Social Assistance Income by Age" width="620" height="556">
Once other transfers, such as child care and education benefits (for example, subsidies for education), are included, the social welfare benefits are a little more evenly distributed across age groups in nominal dollar terms (Graph 14). These ‘transfers in kind’ also include aged care and benefits received through the National Disability Insurance Scheme. Social transfers in kind are captured by measures of government spending and are not included in household consumption growth. Total spending on these transfers has grown significantly over the past 15 years, which has been an important driver of growth in public consumption and economic activity.
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<img src="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2020/mar/images/graph-0320-8-14.svg" alt="Graph 14: Social Welfare Benefits by Age" width="620" height="497">
Conclusions and considerations for the outlook
Australia, as in many countries, is experiencing large demographic shifts. Some portion of the slowing in aggregate consumption and household disposable income growth over the past decade is likely because of demographic changes as more households have moved into a stage of their lives where they earnt and spent less, on average. These effects have been smaller than what previous patterns of household spending would suggest because older households are spending more than in the past. This expenditure has been supported by relatively strong growth in income, large increases in wealth and withdrawals from superannuation.
Over the coming decade, a further strong increase in the share of households aged 65 and above is expected. Further impacts on consumption and income are likely, although these are likely to happen over a number of years. The increase in young overseas migrants over the past decade should support the share of the population that are of working age over the coming decade. This has made Australia relatively well placed, compared with many other advanced economies, to adjust to the effects of an ageing population.
TOMAS COKIS AND KATE MCLOUGHLIN are staff at the RBA
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