<section data-scroll-anchor="false" data-testid="conversation-turn-5" data-turn="user" data-turn-id="e65dbe94-e3b6-47f7-b62a-9cbb30c9bf79" data-turn-id-container="e65dbe94-e3b6-47f7-b62a-9cbb30c9bf79" dir="auto">Time &amp; Place’s plans to transform the former David Jones factory building in Surry Hills into a mixed-use residential precinct have gone on exhibition through the NSW Government’s In-fill Affordable Housing pathway.</section>

<section data-scroll-anchor="false" data-testid="conversation-turn-6" data-turn="assistant" data-turn-id="request-WEB:f4d533b7-64a5-413d-86fd-5c99649c2b73-2" data-turn-id-container="request-WEB:f4d533b7-64a5-413d-86fd-5c99649c2b73-2" dir="auto">
<p data-end="577" data-start="264">The Marlborough House proposal, lodged for the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marlborough-house-47-97-marlborough-street-surry-hills-nsw-2010">47-97 Marlborough Street</a> site, would see the adaptive reuse of the heritage-listed warehouse building alongside the construction of new residential additions and a separate apartment building on the northern portion of the site.</p>

<p data-end="577" data-start="264">The proposal seeks approval for 172 apartments across three buildings, including 15 per cent affordable housing managed by a community housing provider for at least 15 years from occupation.</p>

<p data-end="577" data-start="264"><img alt="Marlborough" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="5d1d3c2a-bf13-47d6-a335-7c01102cdee1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.29.36%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=cjMYrbR.BLUlWH4dar0RVDDo0bG.u2YT" /></p>

<p><em>Interior view from the Northern Building Penthouse overlooking the park</em></p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p data-end="1070" data-start="809">The redevelopment is planned for the prominent 3,413 sqm site bounded by Marlborough Street, Goodlet Street and Lansdowne Street, directly opposite Eddie Ward Park and around 200 metres from the Surry Hills light rail stop.</p>

<p data-end="1246" data-start="1072">Time &amp; Place acquired the former David Jones building in 2024, marking the first time the property had changed hands in around 50 years.</p>

<p data-end="1483" data-start="1248">Designed by Wardle, the proposal centres around the adaptive reuse of the former David Jones factory, originally constructed between 1913 and 1935 in the Inter-War Chicagoesque architectural style.</p>

<p data-end="1854" data-start="1485">Wardle noted in its Architectural Design Report that the building “occupies a significant place in the industrial and cultural history of Surry Hills” and at its peak was “the largest department store manufacturing facility in Australia, employing over 800 people and fuelling the growth of Sydney’s fashion and retail industries.”</p>

<p data-end="2059" data-start="1856">The practice said the project positions itself “not as an isolated intervention, but as a contributor to the civic, social, and architectural grain of the precinct.”</p>

<p data-end="2318" data-start="2061">The proposal would deliver 75 apartments within the retained southern heritage building, 59 apartments within the central addition, and a further 38 apartments within the new northern building fronting Lansdowne Street.</p>

<p data-end="2486" data-start="2320">Planning documents show the scheme would comprise a mix of heritage apartments, new-build apartments, townhouses and penthouses.</p>

<p data-end="2486" data-start="2320"><img alt="Marlborough" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="57758518-40a3-4b83-958c-d06e96a2cffa" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.29.42%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=VerlX9ST5xgBi8.1_YRsqdWTJeT6ygjs" /><em>Interior View of the Heritage Building Apartment</em></p>

<p data-end="2814" data-start="2488">The development would also include a ground-floor retail tenancy on the corner of Marlborough and Lansdowne streets, rooftop communal open space, a landscaped pedestrian link along the western edge of the site, and basement parking accessed from Lansdowne Street via a car stacker system.</p>

<p data-end="3188" data-start="2816">&nbsp;</p>

<p data-end="3625" data-start="3404">The scheme emerged from a competitive design process run by Urbis, with Wardle ultimately selected as the winning architect ahead of FJC Studio, TZG, Architectus and Wilkinson Eyre.</p>

<p data-end="4003" data-start="3627">The Design Integrity Panel later described several aspects of the Wardle scheme as fundamental to the project, including “the stepped character of the new addition to the north of the site”, the landscaped western pedestrian link, and the “garden arrival” experience separating the original Marlborough House from the heritage addition.</p>

<p data-end="4149" data-start="4005">Wardle’s design heavily references the site’s industrial and heritage history, while also responding to the surrounding Surry Hills streetscape.</p>

<p data-end="4488" data-start="4151">The Architectural Design Report describes Surry Hills as “a finely grained neighbourhood with beautiful and expressive brickworks throughout the suburb,” with the proposal introducing a material palette intended to sit comfortably alongside the existing warehouse fabric and neighbouring terraces.</p>

<p data-end="4609" data-start="4490">The report also outlines the project’s relationship with Eddie Ward Park and the broader landscape context of the area.</p>

<p data-end="4894" data-start="4611">“Marlborough House occupies a site of deep cultural memory and the neighbouring Eddie Ward Park is of local ecological significance, where natural systems, topography, and stories have long shaped human experience,” Wardle noted in the report.</p>

<p data-end="5090" data-start="4896">The architects said the proposal sought to “rebind built form to Country” through landscape, materiality and the adaptive reuse of the heritage structure.</p>

<p data-end="5090" data-start="4896"><img alt="Marlborough House" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="9ae3f2f9-c85f-477a-a6f8-b43f6cb97c41" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.29.53%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=B.qUCLqRvJOR.n9CvYcTpaknIX9LuqKZ" /></p>

<p data-end="5304" data-start="5092">The project is also being progressed under the NSW Government’s in-fill affordable housing provisions, allowing developments that include affordable housing to access additional height and floor space incentives.</p>

<p data-end="5498" data-start="5306">Under the plans, 2,593 sqm of the project’s floor space would be dedicated to affordable housing, slightly exceeding the required 15 per cent threshold.</p>

<p data-end="6154" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="" data-start="5806">In its Design Excellence Strategy, Urbis said the project aimed to “sensitively adapt and enhance the heritage-listed building on site through alterations and additions that preserve its historical significance” while delivering “high-quality market and infill affordable housing development in Surry Hills.”</p>

<p>Time &amp; Place has been one of the most active developers nationally in the last 12 to 24 months. Late last year they completed&nbsp;The Queensbridge in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/southbank-vic-3006">Southbank</a>, a mixed-use tower with 353 apartments and a hotel. They are currently selling Park Modern, 246 apartments near the famous Botanic Gardens in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/south-melbourne-vic-3205">South Melbourne</a>, and have future projects, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-wilmot-173-burke-road-28-hope-street-glen-iris-vic-3146">The Wilmot</a>&nbsp;in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/glen-iris-vic-3146">Glen Iris</a>, the redevelopment of the Northcote Plaza, and another tower in South Melbourne.</p>

<p>The developer broke into Sydney just a few years ago with Two Tides in Manly. They have another project nearby, which is at the ultra-luxury end of the market on&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/shoreline-manly-beach-89-90-north-steyne-manly">North Steyne</a>, fronting the beach.</p>

<p>It is also continuing to work through the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-time-place-settles-on-design-for-the-chimes-potts-point-redevelopment">redevelopment of The Chimes building</a> on Macleay Street in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/potts-point-nsw-2011">Potts Point</a>, as well as a project on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/time-place-to-take-on-mosman-apartment-market">Mosman's Redan Street</a>.</p>
</section>


Joel Robinson

First look: Time & Place unveils Marlborough House redevelopment designs for former David Jones warehouse in Surry Hills

<p>The residential transformation of St Kilda Road is set to continue into with more new apartment plans for the sought-after boulevard.</p>

<p>Wing Tai Asia has lodged plans for a major residential tower at 464-466 St Kilda Road, replacing the former VACC House with an 18-storey mixed-use development designed around a retained heritage podium and a sculpted contemporary tower.</p>

<p>The proposal, prepared under Victoria’s Significant Residential Development with Affordable Housing pathway, would deliver 325 apartments and ground-floor retail across the prominent 4,653 sqm boulevard site in Melbourne’s St Kilda Road North Precinct.</p>

<p>The project centres on the adaptive reuse of the site’s heritage-listed VACC Building, an eight-storey office designed by Bernard Evans that has occupied the address for decades. Planning documents state the development would involve “carefully dismantling and conserving off-site the original metal fabric of the podium visible from St Kilda Road,” before reinstating it as the defining frontage of the new scheme.</p>

<p>Above the restored podium, Wing Tai is proposing a curvilinear residential tower. The scheme includes 172 one-bedroom apartments, 63 two-bedroom apartments, 66 three-bedroom apartments, and 24 four-bedroom apartments, alongside two ground-floor food and beverage tenancies fronting St Kilda Road.</p>

<p>The tower has been designed with substantial articulation and variable setbacks to minimise perceived bulk and maintain view corridors along the boulevard. Urbis, which prepared the planning report, said the design “has been significantly articulated through a curvilinear design” with “an interplay with materials, façade expression and depth” to create visual separation and visual interest.</p>

<p>The proposal also includes 254 basement car spaces, landscaped pedestrian links connecting St Kilda Road and Queens Lane, and a biophilic landscape strategy featuring canopy trees, raised planters, cascading greenery and a glass oculus pool overlooking the eastern frontage.</p>

<p>Planning documents confirm the $270.1 million development will contribute 3 per cent of project costs to the Social Housing Growth Fund as part of the application process.</p>

<p>Wing Tai acquired the St Kilda Road property in 2018 alongside Abacus Property Group for $95.38 million, before later consolidating ownership of the site. The property previously served as the Victorian Automobile Chamber of Commerce headquarters for around 60 years.</p>

<p data-end="345" data-start="110">The transformation of the St Kilda Rd boulevard is already beginning to materialise, with a number of high-profile projects recently completed, launched, or approaching launch as developers continue to back the long-term appeal of the precinct.</p>

<p data-end="689" data-start="347">Among the most notable recent completions is Louise by Samuel Property Group, just off the strip on Queens Lane, the same pocket Hirsch &amp; Faigen recently launched The Queensbury. Mirvac is too on the same street with The Albertine, which is approaching completion.</p>

<p data-end="689" data-start="347">Dexus recently secured approval for its slice of St Kilda Road, while Gurner also has approved plans for the precinct.</p>


Wing Tai unveils 325-apartment St Kilda Road tower on former VACC House site

<p>Malaysian developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/s-p-setia">SP Setia</a> is the latest to jump into St Leonards booming Transport Oriented Development precinct.</p>

<p>The developer, which has previously delivered Sapphire by the Gardens apartment development in Melbourne, identified the Atchison Street site in 2023. It filed a Scoping Report around 12 months ago, and now has revealed the designs for the new&nbsp;40-storey mixed-use tower.</p>

<p>The State Significant Development Application covers <a href="https://next-portal.urban.com.au/projects/14650/summary">20-22 Atchison Street</a>, a 1,374 sqm site positioned between St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, the project would deliver 181 apartments, above a four-storey commercial podium, five basement levels, and new public domain works along Mitchell Street. The apartment mix comprises 35 one-bedroom apartments, 39 one-bedroom-plus-study apartments, 85 two-bedroom apartments, and 22 three-bedroom residences.</p>

<p>The proposal has been lodged as a shop-top housing development under the NSW Government’s TOD planning pathway, which allows increased density around key transport infrastructure. The site sits within the recently rezoned Crows Nest Accelerated TOD Precinct.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b799673d-48e2-46b0-801a-0e33a9330100" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20site.png?VersionId=dPh0UfwfaHpbFL1R7H1cbZNbIW0CHbCC" /></p>

<p>SP Setia acquired the Atchison Street site as part of its continued expansion into the Australian apartment market. In comments made to City &amp; Country (The Edge Malaysia) in 2023, SP Setia President and CEO Datuk Choong Kai Wai described the acquisition as “a strategic move” aligned with the group’s post-pandemic market recovery strategy.</p>

<p>“Our target for this exceptional development is local and overseas buyers, including first-home buyers, downsizers and investors,” Choong said.</p>

<p>The tower has been designed as a slender vertical form rising from a mixed-use podium, with COX Architecture positioning the development as a response to the evolving St Leonards and Crows Nest skyline.</p>

<p>“The purpose of the project is to facilitate the delivery of high-quality housing at a strategically located site and deliver a built tower outcome that is consistent with the desired future character of St Leonards and aligns with the TOD controls,” the design report stated.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b1a85eee-76f7-436c-a6da-73ba827b9b13" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20entry.png?VersionId=dA9jHGPMcm.dDbwk4QfxqWiY5bfh3UVt" /></p>

<p>The podium would incorporate retail uses fronting Atchison Street, commercial tenancies, landscaped communal areas, and pedestrian improvements along Mitchell Street. Vehicle access and loading would be consolidated via Atchison Lane.</p>

<p>Residents would have access to more than 665 sqm of communal indoor and outdoor spaces, while the development proposes 96 parking spaces across five basement levels.</p>

<p>The proposal also includes a commitment for 10 per cent of residential floor space to be allocated toward affordable housing through a monetary contribution.</p>

<p>COX said the tower form responds directly to the emerging high-density character of the precinct while seeking to maximise solar access, cross ventilation, and outlook from apartments.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2163f85c-f63b-4be3-aafa-f8763976cec5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Article%20Feature%20Image%20%28Grid%29_5.png?VersionId=WiAmtIKJ6.ZQ41EtYEQ1fol7AeorKBlL" /></p>

<p>“The building is orientated towards north,” the Apartment Design Guide compliance report noted, adding that the tower’s slim form was driven by the constrained inner-urban site dimensions.</p>

<p>The design also incorporates landscaped setbacks and communal open space at podium level, intended to soften the interface with surrounding streets and improve pedestrian amenity.</p>

<p>The project adds to a growing wave of redevelopment proposals reshaping St Leonards and Crows Nest following the opening of the Sydney Metro City line and the NSW Government’s push for higher-density housing around major transport nodes.</p>

<p>Last week Stockland filed plans just down the road. They want to build a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/601-pacific-highway-st-leonards-nsw-2065">52-storey tower on Pacific Highway</a>.</p>

<p><em>Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">First look: Stockland plans 52-storey, 538-apartment St Leonards tower&nbsp;</a></em></p>


First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a> has revealed plans for a new mixed-use tower at 10 Dangar Street, Wickham, advancing a proposal that would reshape the southern gateway to Newcastle’s city centre with one of the city’s tallest residential buildings.</p>

<p>The State Significant Development proposal, now on exhibition, seeks approval for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bowline-10-dangar-street-wickham-nsw-2293">43-storey tower</a> immediately adjacent to the Newcastle Interchange. The project would deliver around 200 apartments, including 42 affordable housing dwellings, alongside 99 co-living units, a 171-room hotel, retail space, and new public domain integrated through the site.</p>

<p>The scheme marks a significant escalation of plans previously approved for the site. Urban Property Group took over the prominent 2,904 sqm parcel, where excavation and demolition had already commenced under an earlier consent for a 14-storey mixed-use development.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="58a96dd9-407f-4d20-86b4-94e4bfeef74b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20podium.png?VersionId=LGlf08pdFGAZDzvx_CXC4XakHNZRuEE0" /></p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/sjb-architects">SJB</a>, the tower has been conceived as a landmark transit-oriented development anchored to the Newcastle Interchange precinct. The proposal includes 245 build-to-sell apartments across a mix of one, two, and three-bedroom residences, as well as two penthouses. Fifteen apartments and one operational unit are earmarked for NDIS housing. The co-living component would add a further 99 units, while the podium would accommodate retail uses and hotel facilities.</p>

<p>SJB said the site presents “a valuable opportunity to anchor the precinct by setting the standard for design, active ground planes and character at the key southern gateway.”</p>

<p>The architecture responds directly to the site’s position beside major transport infrastructure and within one of Newcastle’s fastest-evolving urban renewal precincts. The tower form sits above a sculpted podium designed to frame new public spaces, including a through-site pedestrian link connecting Station Street to Hannell Street, landscaped plazas, and activated retail edges.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a7bd6ff0-f7db-4ce8-a6dc-ea56e72c6149" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20lanne.png?VersionId=xzf39VADyhj7zBQY2I9fx9vI62u2tuSb" /></p>

<p>The design report describes the project as part of the broader transition of Wickham into “a vibrant, high-quality mixed-use urban precinct” that leverages proximity to the station, open space, and regional connectivity.</p>

<p>A detailed public art strategy has also been prepared for the development. The strategy positions the project as “a transit-oriented development of state significance at the gateway to Newcastle’s city centre” and outlines a series of integrated artworks responding to Newcastle’s industrial and transport heritage.</p>

<p>Creative Road’s curatorial framework for the project, titled Unveil, draws on “stratified surfaces, carved volumes, and light-filled apertures” while referencing Newcastle’s transformation from an industrial city into a contemporary education and technology hub.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="77a882bb-14b1-4d28-99ff-9438e39508c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20site.png?VersionId=cevgo_vN0eKPK78P8YcEu3mKPLkpFqE7" /></p>

<p>The proposal is being advanced through the NSW Housing Delivery Authority pathway after being declared State Significant Development in June 2025. The accompanying scoping report states the development aims to “maximise the site’s proximity to the Newcastle Interchange by delivering transit-oriented development” while increasing housing supply and affordable housing provision within the Newcastle LGA.</p>

<p>Urban Property Group’s plans align with the long-term strategic vision established under the Wickham Master Plan, which identified the interchange precinct as suitable for substantial uplift in height and density. The current proposal would significantly intensify that vision, positioning the tower among the tallest developments proposed for Newcastle.</p>

<p>The site sits immediately north of the Newcastle Interchange, bounded by Dangar Street, Hannell Street, and Charles Street. It is surrounded by a rapidly growing cluster of residential towers and mixed-use projects that have emerged following the completion of the light rail and transport interchange.</p>


First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s latest tower at Wickham interchange

<p>Bottega House has completed settlement of a landmark riverfront site in Macquarie Street, St Lucia, representing its first major Brisbane development.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Positioned on the banks of the Brisbane River, the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/180-macquarie-street-st-lucia-qld-4067">premium site at 180 Macquarie Street</a> features uninterrupted river frontage in one of Brisbane’s most tightly held residential precincts.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The proposed development, currently under assessment with Brisbane City Council, has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/plus-studio">Plus Studio</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/mim-design">Mim Design</a> and will deliver a boutique collection of premium residences positioned specifically for owner occupiers and downsizers.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The residences are set to redefine luxury apartment living in the area, with a focus on architectural quality, refined finishes, landscape integration and elevated amenities including curated wellness facilities, resort-style pools and recreation spaces rarely seen in the local market.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Exclusive sales for the project will be led by Keenan &amp; Byrne, ahead of an anticipated launch later this year.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Bottega House Managing Director Nick Malloch said the project reflects the group’s ambition to deliver a highly curated residential offering within one of Brisbane’s most tightly held precincts.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“This is an incredibly rare riverfront opportunity and one we have approached with a long-term perspective,” Malloch said.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“Our vision from the outset was to create a boutique collection of residences that feel more like private homes than traditional apartments, with generous proportions, refined finishes and exceptional amenity throughout."</p>

<p>Malloch says there is a&nbsp;lack of premium owner-occupier stock of this quality in the market, particularly for downsizers wanting space, privacy and a true lifestyle offering without compromise.&nbsp;</p>

<p>"Demand is expected to be strong given the scarcity of premium riverfront opportunities of this nature within Brisbane’s inner-west."&nbsp;</p>


Bottega House secures landmark riverfront site in St Lucia 

House Prices

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<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">South Australia has headaches, not least in the form of Whyalla where the town's major employer is suspended from trading on the securities exchange having failed to guide its steelworks back to break even over recent years, despite continually cutting costs and capex, and having unveiled a recapitalisation proposal back in February that has now been rejected.  </span>
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<div>Steel company Arrium Limited (ASX: ARI), which employees thousands of workers and has an export port facility at Whyalla, has been stuck in a trading halt and has been suspended from official quotation, with the company staring down a possible bankruptcy or a likely voluntary administration and its last traded share price at only 2.2 cents.<br><br><div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/04/8/ARI.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div class="separator"><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Source: ASX</span></em></div>
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<div>It was announced to the ASX this week, in the euphemistically graceful way of these things, that the Chief Financial Officer of the company has resigned "to pursue other interests", while the company attempts to refinance its massive and unsecured $2.8 billion debt burden.<br><br>
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<div>Whyalla already felt the pain of OneSteel shedding jobs last year and further cuts were made by OneSteel this week, with approximately 1,000 jobs lost in Whyalla since the beginning of last year as South Australian unemployment spiked to a 14 year high. </div>
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<div>Given that Arrium employs about 10 per cent of Whyalla's working population, the potential closure of the steelworks could rip the local community apart, having a more devastating impact than the closure of Holden upon South Australia, potentially resulting in related job losses variously estimated at between 3,000 and 4,000 (Arrium has about 10,000 employees in total, and the possible closure of the steelworks itself would directly account for 1,100 jobs). </div>
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<div>These are desperate numbers for a town with a population of only 22,000, and any such closure would inevitably result in an exodus or population outflow from the region. Let's sincerely hope that doesn't happen, though at present the outlook seems bleak.<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Property market decimated</span></strong>
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<div>Median house prices have reportedly fallen sharply in Whyalla, while there have been few takers for attached dwellings, resulting in a crushing of unit prices.<br><br>
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<div>It was reported this week that more than a billion dollars has been wiped off the value of Whyalla's property market in recent years - from $2.7 billion to $1.5 billion - as homeowners flood the market with for sale boards (though quite how those figures are derived given that so few dwellings have actually transacted is open to question). </div>
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<div>This may sound like catastrophising, but vacancy rates are threatening to go through the roof, with scores of properties listed for rent in Whyalla and hundreds more in surrounding suburbs.<br><br>
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<div><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">SQM Research</span></em></div>
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<div>Note that the dynamics described above have transpired while Whyalla's official unemployment rate is still relatively speaking quite low, at 7.2 per cent  as at December 2015.</div>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Slow house sales</span></strong></div>
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<div>In truth it is very challenging to get an accurate read on housing market prices, since although there are now hundreds of properties listed for sale, comparatively very few of them have been selling. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Looking at some specific examples suggests that if outright panic isn't on the cards yet, it may not be that far off if Arrium does shut up shop. As noted above, hopefully this proves not to be the case. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>By way of one example, following a few false starts and 372 days - more than a year - on the market, this house finally sold for $140,000, 36.4 per cent less than it was originally listed for. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/04/8/Whyalla1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/04/8/Whyalla1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-4kOFesTsRMM/VwTu2Y5IziI/AAAAAAAAcRo/6n9VAIURjoYWNIwL4t2itTiVV4TXNfNXg/s1600/WHyalla2.jpg"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-4kOFesTsRMM/VwTu2Y5IziI/AAAAAAAAcRo/6n9VAIURjoYWNIwL4t2itTiVV4TXNfNXg/s640/WHyalla2.jpg" width="640" height="66"></a></div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-fKMid6N-oPE/VwTu2YeCZuI/AAAAAAAAcRw/atIfr41-xY4Ra78ibngGtjrLeb-mtfN6g/s1600/WHyalla3.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-fKMid6N-oPE/VwTu2YeCZuI/AAAAAAAAcRw/atIfr41-xY4Ra78ibngGtjrLeb-mtfN6g/s640/WHyalla3.jpg" width="640" height="82"></a></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Other examples suggest that prices may now be down by about a quarter over the last couple of years, but this statistic is essentially useless to individual prospective sellers, since it really all comes down to the asset in question and whether a willing buyer can be found.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>While Arrium's steelworks fate is not yet decided, unfortunately this is becoming an all too familar story with regards to these small towns and cities that are so heavily reliant on a small number of employers.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>No doubt it's great if you can buy at the beginning of a resources boom and nimbly sell before the peak, but if you miss the precise turning points these markets have the potential to become frightfully thin and illiquid, and there may be nobody to even rent your property to, let alone sell it.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Share indices</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Another related graphic from the RBA Chart Pack worth looking at is the Australian share price indices chart. Note that the y axis here is presented on a log scale - the swan dive in the resources index since its peak has been nothing short of breathtaking.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/04/8/australian-share-price-indices-small.gif" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/04/8/australian-share-price-indices-small.gif" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>To a certain extent the resources index has been reflected the fortunes of property markets in resources heavy regions, albeit not coterminously.<br><br>Sure, if you got in to the resources penny dreadfuls in 2000 and sold out in 2007 then you'd say that the resources minnows and micro-caps are the best thing since sliced bread, but over the longer term the self-sustaining industrials and financials triumph.<br><br>Yes, I get the counter-arguments, if you bought a house in Whyalla for $150,000 in 2000 today it "could" be worth double what you paid for it, assuming you can find a willing buyer (i.e. a "when to" investment rather than a "how to" investment).<br><br>That said, looking at actual resales of like-for-like properties shows that price performance has not been as smart as suggested by median prices (which are distorted by development).<br><br>Unfortunately many property investors hopped on to the mining boom bandwagon around 2012 egged on by seminar groups and promoters, and are somewhat more precariously placed as voluntary administration looms large for Arrium.<br><br>Don't get me wrong, I hailed from a depressed steel city myself, and the last thing anyone with a heart wants to see is a single job lost. But the steelworks is not viable, and it appears likely to close without government handouts, and as such the housing market is wobbly to say the least.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Whyalla wipeout on the brink (redux): Pete Wargent

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<p><span>yourtown are offering their first prize home since changing their name from BoysTown, a $2.18 million Sunshine Coast home.</span></p>
<p><span>Architecturally designed, the three-storey Alexandra Headland home has four bedrooms and three bathrooms.</span></p>
<p><span>The property has a sound proof media room, swimming pool, four car garage and a lift.</span></p>
<p><span>Winning the prize home also includes $155,285 of furniture and electrical and $1,500 travel voucher from Flight Centre.</span></p>
<p><span>yourtown CEO Tracy Adams says money raised from prize homes goes towards tackling the issues young people face, including unemployment, family and domestic violence and mental health.</span></p>
<p><span><a href="https://www.yourtown.com.au/lot">Tickets for the prize homes</a></span><span> cost $15 and are available until April 13 with the winner drawn April 15.</span></p>
<p><span>The first prize is the luxury home, second prize receives a $10,000 Flight Centre voucher, David Jones Gift Card or Harvey Norman gift card, and third receives $5,000 vouchers.</span></p>
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Three-storey Alexandra Headland home new yourtown prize

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<div>The December 2015 Residential Property Price Indexes figures confirmed the expected slowing in the final quarter of last year, although more timely private sector indices suggest that nationally prices began to rise again in the first quarter of 2016, perhaps by around +1.5 percent. Let's look through the macro trends from the 2015 figures in three concise parts.<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Part 1 - Market steadier in summer</span></strong><br><br>The total value  of dwelling stock increased only marginally to $5.9 trillion in the December quarter, rising by $482 billion or +8.9 per cent over the calendar year. This was broadly in line with capital city dwelling price growth of +8.7 per cent, plus a bit more reflecting the value of the new supply of new dwellings.<br><br>The total value of dwelling stock has increased by a third or $1.5 trillion since December 2011, now tallying 3.5 times the size of nominal GDP. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/03/23/R4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div> <img src="/images/2016/03/23/R4.jpg" alt="">
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<div>The weighted 8 capital city average indexes showed that both house and unit prices steadied in the last quarter of 2015, with house price growth (+9.3 per cent) outperforming the market attached dwellings (+6.7 per cent) over the course of the calendar year, a triumph for scarcity over affordability. </div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/03/23/R10.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/03/23/R10.jpg" alt=""></div>
<p> </p>
<div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Part 2 - City by city</span></strong><br><br>While Sydney showed the expected moderate final quarter correction and Darwin prices tumbled, Perth saw its prices increase by +0.5 per cent leading a number of commentators to call the bottom on Perth's market cycle and to project moderate gains for 2016.<br><br>Melbourne prices rose by +1.6 per cent to record strong growth of +9.6 per cent for the year, second only to another immense calendar year for Sydney at +13.9 per cent.<br><br>Canberra went on a tear with prices leaping by +2.8 per cent in the December quarter (for +6 per cent growth in 2015). while Hobart prices also spiked by +2.5 per cent for an annual result of +3.5 per cent, mirroring more timely reports from other private sector data providers.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The most steadily consistent performer has been Brisbane, notching up another solid +1.6 per cent increase for its 14th consecutive quarterly gain and a +4.2 per cent annual increase. Since June 2012 dwelling prices have increased steadily by +17.1 per cent in Brisbane. Adelaide has followed a very similar trajectory with somewhat more suppressed nominal price growth. </div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/03/23/R6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a><br><img src="/images/2016/03/23/R6.jpg" alt=""><br><br></p>
<div>Over the past three years the total value of Australia's dwelling stock has increased by $1.33 trillion, with New South Wales (+$682 billion), Victoria (+$377 billion) and Queensland (+$143 billion) accounting for the bulk of the increase. </div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/03/23/R1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/03/23/R1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>Since December 2008 growth in property prices has been driven overwhelmingly by Sydney (+79.8 per cent) and Melbourne (+53.5 per cent), while Brisbane has recorded considerably less price growth (+22.1 per cent) over this timeframe. In fact since that time both Darwin and Canberra have fared better, although the Top End is now in correction mode.</div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/03/23/R2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge </a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/03/23/R2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The ABS also now provides some interesting insights into the unstratified median price of established dwelling transfers, which also inferred a slowdown in Sydney house prices (in fact Sydney unit prices rose more than established house prices on this metric, jumping by +11.4 per cent to $685,000).<br><br>This data series is most instructive in depicting just how far Sydney and Melbourne house price growth has outpaced that of its respective regional market counterparts. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/03/23/R3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/03/23/R3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<p> </p>
<div>There are myriad ways to look at house price data, some of which involve inflation adjustments and carefully selected data points, while others use hedonic regression analysis, but the simple long run data from March 2002 shows the median transfer price of established houses to be as follows:</div>
<ul>
<li>Sydney up from $365,000 to $910,000</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Melbourne up from $241,000 to $621,000 </li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Brisbane up from $185,000 to $499,800 </li>
</ul>
<div class="separator">At the state level the mean dwelling prices tell a broadly similar story to the capital city narrative for the past year, with New South Wales (+$76,300) and Victoria (+$56,100) once again recording the greatest gains in calendar year 2015, while the ACT (+$35,000) and Queensland (+$17,600) also saw notable increases.</div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/03/23/R7.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/03/23/R7.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Part 3 - Supply response mixed</span></strong><br><br></p>
<div>Finally, the data denoting the total number of dwellings at the state level shows how New South Wales added just +7,400 dwellings to its total stock in the December quarter. Nationally the total number of dwellings increased solidly by +162,900 or +1.7 per cent in 2015 to 9.62 million, having now increased by +578,600 or +6.4 per cent since December 2011. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<span>Over the past four years, while the less densely populated territories of the Northern Territory (+10.2 per cent) and the ACT have added substantially to their stock of dwellings in percentage terms, the same has not been true everywhere. </span><br><br>Of the most populous states Western Australia (+8.9 per cent) and Victoria (+7.8 per cent) have co-ordinated the most material supply response as a percentage of established dwellings. However, the percentage increases in Queensland (+6.8 per cent) and in particular New South Wales (+4.6 per cent) have been less marked, reflected in their respective shallower gradients in the below chart. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/03/23/R8.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/03/23/R8.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>This seems likely to in part to reflect stock obsolescence and demolition in the larger capital cities, where older dwellings are often pulled down in order to make way for new apartment developments. However, in some locations there does remain an elevated volume of apartment construction in the pipeline, which you can doubtless see for yourself if you frequent the inner city hubs.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Overall this historical data reflected already known market trends with the restraints on investor lending propitious in tapering price growth towards the end of the calendar year. At the macro level we can expect price growth nationally in 2016 to be lower than the +8.7 per cent seen in 2015, with investor lending have been successfully curbed and more supply due to come online. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>House price growth has resumed in 2016 in parts of Brisbane and Melbourne, Sydney's market has become a <em>bona fide</em> dichotomy, with many of the inner ring suburbs firing, but the outer ring now recording funereal auction results. Naturally at the sub-regional level results are far more mixed and trends more nuanced.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
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Brisbane racks up 14th consecutive quarterly gain: Pete Wargent

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<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The RBA governor has welcomed moderation in house prices in some of the locations where they had been rising most rapidly.</span></p>
<p><span>In a speech, Stevens told an annual forum organised by ASIC, that bank balance sheets had been improving in recent years.</span></p>
<p><span>"On the topic of loan quality, the strengthening of lending standards for housing that resulted from the <span>actions of both APRA</span> and ASIC was timely," he advised. </span></p>
<p><span>"So often over the years, tighter standards tended to come too late and reinforced a downturn after it had begun."</span></p>
<p><span>Mr Stevens said the restraints on lending - primarily to investors - appeared to have come before a deterioration in measures of asset quality, such a default rates.</span></p>
<p><span>"Some moderation in house prices in some of the locations where they had been rising most rapidly, while not the direct objective of the supervisory measures, is also, in my judgement, helpful," he said.</span></p>
<p>To read the speech in full, click here.</p>
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

House price growth moderation helpful: RBA's Glenn Stevens

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<p><span>The Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index dipped 2.2 percent from 101.3 in Feb to 99.1 in March.</span></p>
<p><span>The softer read reflected weaker reads on ‘family finances vs a year ago’ and ‘time to buy a major item’ partially offset by improved expectations for the economy.</span></p>
<p><span>State divergences remain a strong theme across the survey detail with the ‘lukewarm’ national result reflecting a mix of much weaker reads across the ‘mining’ states and considerably stronger sentiment across the other major states.</span></p>
<p><span>Responses to additional questions on news recall showed lower recall on most topics compared to Dec – particularly news on ‘international conditions’ – with news assessed as less unfavourable as well though still predominantly negative overall.</span></p>
<p><span>Updates on the ‘wisest place for savings’ question show a sharp rise in risk aversion with a big drop in the proportion nominating ‘real estate’ and a corresponding rise in those favouring ‘deposits’ and ‘pay down debt’. The shift appears to stem from a combination of increased market volatility, unfavourable media coverage on property markets and potential changes to tax policy.</span></p>
<p><span>The mix resulted in a 20pt jump in the Westpac Risk Aversion Index to its highest level since Mar 2013.</span></p>
<p><span>CSI, our modified sentiment indicator that we favour as a guide to actual spending, posted a heavy 5.7 percent fall in Mar to be down 8 percent over Q1 as a whole. The Index suggests spending will lose momentum over the first half of 2016.</span></p>
<p><span>The sub-index on ‘time to buy a major item’ registered a sharp 6.6 percent fall in Mar to be 12pts below average. The Q4 national accounts suggest the pace of durables spending has already softened with the sub-index suggesting more subdued soft growth in early 2016.</span></p>
<p><span>The ‘time to buy a dwelling’ index increased 5.4 percent from 99.3 in Feb to 104.7 in Mar and continues to show signs of settling just above the 100 level. Assessments in NSW have improved from very weak levels.</span></p>
<p><span>The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer House Price Expectations Index also rebounded 9.8 percent in Mar to be just 5pts below its 10yr average. </span></p>
<p><span>Expectations continue to show increased volatility likely reflecting mixed actual conditions and uncertainty around the outlook for key policies affecting housing markets.</span></p>
<p><span>The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Unemployment Expectations Index edged up 1.3 percent in Mar, indicating a slightly poorer outlook for unemployment. The Index still points to an improvement in job loss fears compared to 2014 and most of 2015. However the tentative signs of a renewed deterioration in recent months bears watching closely. </span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/03/18/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-18%20at%203.20.41%20PM.png" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2016/03/18/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-18%20at%203.20.41%20PM.png" alt=""></span></p>
<p><span>As is often the case, ‘the devil was in the detail’ with the March Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment survey.</span></p>
<p><span>On the surface, the headline Index was just a touch lower in the month, essentially holding in line with average readings over the last 6mths. Likewise, the Westpac–Melbourne Institute Unemployment Expectations Index also deteriorated only slightly.</span></p>
<p><span>The detail however shows a much richer pattern of strength and weakness, and a more nuanced account of the factors currently influencing the consumer mood.</span></p>
<p><span>The dip in sentiment was driven by a sharp fall in assessments of ‘family finances vs a year ago’, and accompanied by a sharp rise in risk aversion indicated by responses to additional questions on the ‘wisest place for savings’.</span></p>
<p><span>Although both moves may prove to be temporary, these components have had a major bearing on consumers’ spending and savings decisions in the past. Indeed, this aspect of the survey points to a softer near term demand environment, particularly when compared to what now looks to have been a strong finish to 2015.</span></p>
<p><span>The detail around housing showed a more positive but still mixed situation.</span></p>
<p><span>Views on ‘time to buy a dwelling’ and house price expectations both look to have pulled out of last year’s abrupt slide at levels that are soft but not so soft as to suggest a ‘hard landing’ is on the way.</span></p>
<p><span>The main qualifier here is around investor housing with the survey showing a sharp drop in the proportion of consumers nominating real estate as the ‘wisest place for savings’. One of the main drivers appears to be uncertainty around potential changes to policies affecting residential investment – something that looks set to remain a factor through to the Federal election.</span></p>
<p><span>On the labour market, the main mystery still concerns the disconnect between consumer views and improvements now clearly being shown across a wide range of market metrics. While these have shown a marginal softening in recent months, consumers never really bought into 2015’s improvement.</span></p>
<p><span>We have several ideas as to why that may be but these are yet to be confirmed. In the meantime, the anxious consumer view on jobs remains a clear restraint on demand. </span></p>
<p><span><strong>The consumer mood: bogged down</strong></span></p>
<p><span>The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment dipped 2.2 percent in Mar from 101.3 in Feb to 99.1. The Index is back to around its average reading over the last 6mths.</span></p>
<p><span>The index continues to hold on to most of the gains seen since last year’s leadership change – it surged 8.3 percent through Oct-Nov and has only slipped back 2.5 percent from that high although technically we are now slightly back in the region where pessimists outnumber optimists.</span></p>
<p><span>Financial markets have maintained significant volatility since the last survey while finishing the month on an encouraging high.</span></p>
<p><span>Responses to additional questions on ‘news recall’ indicate that consumers were generally less focussed on ‘international conditions’ than in Dec, recall on this topic falling from 20 percent to 15.5% in Mar, although perceptions remained highly unfavourable.</span></p>
<p><span>The highest levels of news recall were for items on ‘budget and taxation’ (37.1 percent) and ‘economic conditions’ (36.7 percent). Perceptions of both topics were less unfavourable in Mar than in Dec. Respondents registered low recall rates on news on ‘interest rates’, ‘employment’ and ‘inflation’ although again perceptions were significantly less unfavourable than in Dec. </span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/03/21/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-18%20at%203.33.35%20PM.png" target="_blank" style="line-height: 1.3em;">Click to enlarge</a></p>
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<p><span>Three of the five component indexes fell in Mar. Notably, the sub-index on ‘finances vs a year ago’ fell 8.2 percent. The RBA has singled out this component as providing a useful guide to actual spending. As such, it would be of some concern that, having failed to lift following last year’s leadership change, the sub-index is down 5.9%yr. That said, the prudent approach to the sharp move in March is to assess the degree to which it is sustained in coming months.</span></p>
<p><span>The ‘finances, next 12mths’ sub-index edged up 0.2 percent. Views on the economy were more mixed, the ‘economy, next 12mths’ sub-index up 8.2 percent, the ‘economy, next 5yrs’ sub-index down 2.5 percent.</span></p>
<p><span>― The ‘time to buy a major item’ sub-index was on the weak side, falling 6.6 percent to be down 2.5 percent yr.</span></p>
<p><span>State divergences remain a strong theme across the survey detail. Indeed the ‘lukewarm’ results for sentiment overall are partly a matter of arithmetic: the ‘mining states’ account for 31% of consumers in Australia and while-ever sentiment across this group is stuck around 90 it’s difficult to generate a ‘strong’ national result. An index reading in the 110+ range, for example, would require sentiment reads in NSW and Vic to be pushing towards 120 or more. Viewed this way, middling consumer sentiment reads may be as good as it gets in 2016. </span></p>
<p style="line-height: 1.3em;"><a href="/images/2016/03/21/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-18%20at%203.44.10%20PM.png" target="_blank" style="line-height: 1.3em;">Click to enlarge</a></p>
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<p><span><img src="/images/2016/03/21/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-18%20at%203.44.10%20PM.png" alt=""></span></p>
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<p><span>Sentiment indicators: housing</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The ‘time to buy a dwelling’ index increased 5.4 percent from 99.3 in Feb to 104.7 in Mar. After </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">a sharp fall in 2015 H2, the national index continues to show signs of settling at a level just above 100. That puts it well below the long run average of 129 but above the lows seen during previous housing market corrections – these have seen sub-100 readings with sub-80 readings in major downturns.</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
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<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Notably, the state detail on ‘time to buy a dwelling’ shows buyer sentiment in NSW – the weakest state – is now 44 percent above its Sep low although it is still 19 percent below its level from a year ago.</span></div>
<div class="column"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></div>
<div class="column"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Markets are now emerging from the summer hiatus. However, most data releases still relate to the Dec-Jan period and are hence less reliable guides to trends. The main exception is around auction market activity, which is reported weekly and provides more robust information, albeit heavily skewed to parts of the Syd &amp; Melb markets.</span></div>
<div class="column">
<p><span>Auction clearance rates continue to show a firm start to 2016 compared to what was a very weak finish to 2015. Although underlying volumes are low (down 20% on Sep levels and –2.3%yr), both Syd and Melb clearance rates have been around 67-68% level, allowing for seasonal fluctuations. </span></p>
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<p> <a href="/images/2016/03/21/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-18%20at%203.49.01%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2016/03/21/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-18%20at%203.49.01%20PM.png" alt="" width="777" height="753"></span></p>
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<p><span>Sentiment indicators: house prices</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer House Price Expectations Index </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">rebounded 9.8% in Mar to be 16.6% above its Dec low but still 18.4% below its year ago level. At 120.9, the index is less than 5pts shy of its 10yr average.</span></p>
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<p><span>Just over 22 percent of consumers expect prices to decline in the year ahead, 33 percent expect no change, 38 percent expect gains of 0-10 percent and 6 percent expect 10%+ gains. State-wise, the main lift vs Feb was a more bullish view in NSW and a less pessimistic view in WA. That said, the state and sub-group detail continues to show volatile moves suggesting consumers may be struggling to get a firm handle on the price outlook. </span></p>
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<p><span>This volatility may derive from the uncertain outlook for policies affecting investor activity and the uneven picture presented by various price measures. The most timely price gauge – the CoreLogic RP Data series – has shown clear signs of stabilising after a weak Q4 with prices likely to finish up close to 2 percent in Q1. Other less timely measures are still reflecting last year’s weakness but get equal coverage in the media. </span></p>
<p><span>Viewing all the elements of housing sentiment by state – price expectations, buyer sentiment and investor sentiment – conditions overall appear weakest in Qld &amp; WA although by far the biggest deterioration vs a year ago is in NSW. </span></p>
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Volatility reflecting mixed conditions and uncertainty around policies affecting housing markets: Westpac-Melbourne Institute

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<p>House prices in Australia have outperformed apartments by a significant margin for long-term capital gain but the growth gap is narrowing, reflecting the increasing social acceptance of apartment living as demographic trends shift, according to John McGrath in a recent Switzer blog.</p>
<p>The claim is well supported by facts. House prices in Sydney rose by 11.5% in 2015 with apartments trailing by just a touch at 11.3%, according to RP Data. Across the five prime capital cities (Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane/Gold Coast, Adelaide and Perth), growth was exactly 8% for both property types.</p>
<p>Apartments are clearly not the poor cousin of houses when it comes to returns and part of the reason is that apartment living is becoming the preferred choice for a growing proportion of the population, he writes.</p>
<p>In fact, there’s a good chance apartments may replace the quarter-acre block as the new Australian dream because many are in localities that are close to work and social activities and come with perks such as gyms, pools and concierges, argues McGrath.</p>
<p>Changing demographics are also driving this trend. While the nuclear family is still dominant, an increasing number of Australians live in a couple relationship without children or by themselves – and neither need or want to live in a house.</p>
<p>By around 2030, childless couples (DINKS and Empty-Nesters) will become the most common family type in Australia – and lone person households (SINKS and older people) will become the fastest growing household type, according to the ABS.</p>
<p>Adding to this is increasing interest in apartments from investors due to affordability, as well as rising international demand. Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) restrictions mean overseas investors can only purchase new stock – typically apartments.</p>
<p>Apartment living is on the rise around the world – literally.  </p>
<p>In McGrath’s annual report, the tallest residential towers both in Australia and overseas were profiled. Many of them here at home are still in development with one of the highest, Australia 108 in Melbourne offering ‘cloud residences’ from Floor 71 up. The tallest residential tower in Sydney, Greenland Centre on Bathurst Street, is also currently under construction.</p>
<p>In conclusion, McGrath predicts that there will be larger apartments for young families, offering a home within a 20 minute radius of everything they need, such as schools, shops, jobs and transport.</p>
<p><strong>Tallest residential towers – Australia</strong></p>
<p><strong>235 metres</strong></p>
<p>Greenland Centre</p>
<p>115-119 Bathurst Street, Sydney</p>
<p><strong>249 metres</strong></p>
<p>Infinity Tower</p>
<p>43 Herschel Street, Brisbane</p>
<p><strong>254 metres</strong></p>
<p>Prima Pearl</p>
<p>35 Queensbridge Street, South Bank, Melbourne</p>
<p><strong>265 metres</strong></p>
<p>120 Collins Street, Melbourne</p>
<p><strong>297 metres</strong></p>
<p>Eureka Tower</p>
<p>Riverside Quay, South Bank, Melbourne</p>
<p><strong>319 metres</strong></p>
<p>Australia 108</p>
<p>70 Southbank Boulevard, Melbourne</p>
<p><strong>323 metres</strong></p>
<p>Q1, 9 Hamilton Avenue, Surfers Paradise, Gold Coast</p>
<p><strong>Tallest residential towers – International </strong></p>
<p><strong>339 metres</strong></p>
<p>Mercury City</p>
<p>1st Krasnogvardeysky Avenue, Moscow, Russia</p>
<p><strong>380 metres</strong></p>
<p>Elite Residence</p>
<p>Al Sofouh Road, Dubai, UAE</p>
<p><strong>382 metres</strong></p>
<p>Burj Mohammed Bin Rashid</p>
<p>Khalifa, Bin Zayed The 1st, Abu Dhabi, UAE</p>
<p><strong>393 metres</strong></p>
<p>23 Marina</p>
<p>568 Al Marsa, Dubai Marina, UAE</p>
<p><strong>414 metres</strong></p>
<p>Princess Tower</p>
<p>Al Marsa, Dubai Marina, UAE</p>
<p><strong>426 metres</strong></p>
<p>432 Park Avenue, New York, USA</p>
<p><strong>632 metres</strong></p>
<p>Shanghai Tower</p>
<p>Luijiazui Finance and Trade Zone, Pudong District, Shanghai, China</p>
<p><strong>828 metres</strong></p>
<p>Burj Khalifa</p>
<p>1 Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Blvd, Dubai, UAE</p>
<p><em>*Source: Household and Family Projections 2011 to 2036 (series II), released March 2015</em></p>
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prateek24-ezbwHMbNAk

Apartments may usurp houses as growth gap narrows: McGrath

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<p>The 2015 calendar year saw Sydney home values rise by a total of 11.5 percent, the latest NAB housing insights report has noted.</p>
<p>Strong economic conditions together with high rates of migration have driven the strength in the New South Wales housing market. </p>
<p>Sydney has recorded the highest rate of growth, with home values rising by a cumulative 42.1 percent over the past five years.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/03/10/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-10%20at%201.19.19%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
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<p>While growth in home values across Sydney has been substantial, the second half of 2015 has shown the first signs that Sydney’s strong run of capital gains is losing steam; the final quarter of 2015 saw auction clearance rates slip to the lowest levels since 2012 and home values were down by 2.3 percent over the quarter.</p>
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<p>The Sydney housing market has been undersupplied for a number of years, leading to a substantial accumulation of pent up demand. While the undersupply of housing – in conjunction with other factors including strong foreign demand and low interest rates – have been highly supportive of prices, a significant deterioration in affordability is likely to pose more of a constraint on price gains going forward. </p>
<p>NAB has lowered its expectation for house price growth to just 0.6 percent in 2016 (from 11.5% in 2015) </p>
<p>Additionally, a record large pipeline of residential buildings approved for construction is now (and will continue to) help to alleviate the pent up demand for housing that has accumulated over time, reducing a key source of support for the market. Similar to elsewhere, more subdued population growth and tighter credit conditions from prudential regulatory changes will likely slow demand, and may have a particularly large impact on Sydney given the large contribution from investors. </p>
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<p><img src="/images/2016/03/10/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-10%20at%201.21.18%20PM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>The NAB Property Survey showed that market sentiment weakened considerably in the last quarter of 2015, foreign demand eased off moderately, and participant’s expectations for price gains in the next 2 years were also heavily reduced. Consequently, NAB has lowered its expectation for house price growth to just 0.6 percent in 2016 (from 11.5 percent in 2015). Given the additional headwinds to the unit/apartment market, prices for this type of housing are expected to fall 0.6 percent in 2016.</p>
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po-LsXgBTHBmX

Sydney house values to increase by 0.6 percent, units to fall by 0.6 percent in 2016: NAB

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<div>Data from the Urban Development Institurte of Australia (UDIA) revaled that median lot prices in Sydney have increased by +49.4 percent in only the past three years. </div>
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<div>The increase in 2015 alone was $100,975 or +22.9 percent. to $440,725.</div>
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<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Sydney land prices up 50 percent in 3 years: Pete Wargent

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<p><span>House prices have fallen considerably in Port Hedland, Derby and Karratha over the past year, according to JLL's Residential Market Review for February.</span></p>
<p><span>The report said </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Port Hedland, once a rival to Sydney for prices; has seen the median house price fall by -29.0% over the past year to $576,000 and is expected to fall further. </span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">"Prices in Derby have fallen -29.3% to $290,000. Prices in Karratha have fallen -21.7% to $428,000," it said.</span></p>
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<p><span>"Broome, not affected by mining, has nevertheless seen house prices fall -10.6% to $539,000."</span></p>
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House prices fall in WA's Port Hedland, Derby and Karratha: JLL

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<p><span>Melbourne median house prices are up by 11.7 percent to $675,000 year on year, nearly matching Sydney according to JLL's Residential Market Report for February.</span></p>
<p><span>Apartment prices, according to the report, have increased more slowly, up by 6.9 percent to $506,000 year on year with the p</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">rice growth percentage in Melbourne exceeded Sydney in Q3 and Q4.</span></p>
<p><span> The report said the median house price was down in December, 2.2 percent month on month, up 0.7 percent quarter on quarter.</span></p>
<p><span>"The auction clearance rate at 13/12 was 64.7 percent, while the number of actual sales under auction was up 6.9 percent on the same period last year. </span></p>
<p><span>"However, strong demand continues in Melbourne, in contrast to Sydney, with an expectation of 4% growth on median house prices.</span></p>
<p><span>"The apartment market is oversupplied, with slower price increases. The number of new listings is down 4.1 percent on last year, with total listings also down 3.5 percent."</span></p>
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