The residential transformation of St Kilda Road is set to continue into with more new apartment plans for the sought-after boulevard.

Wing Tai Asia has lodged plans for a major residential tower at 464-466 St Kilda Road, replacing the former VACC House with an 18-storey mixed-use development designed around a retained heritage podium and a sculpted contemporary tower.

The proposal, prepared under Victoria’s Significant Residential Development with Affordable Housing pathway, would deliver 325 apartments and ground-floor retail across the prominent 4,653 sqm boulevard site in Melbourne’s St Kilda Road North Precinct.

The project centres on the adaptive reuse of the site’s heritage-listed VACC Building, an eight-storey office designed by Bernard Evans that has occupied the address for decades. Planning documents state the development would involve “carefully dismantling and conserving off-site the original metal fabric of the podium visible from St Kilda Road,” before reinstating it as the defining frontage of the new scheme.

Above the restored podium, Wing Tai is proposing a curvilinear residential tower. The scheme includes 172 one-bedroom apartments, 63 two-bedroom apartments, 66 three-bedroom apartments, and 24 four-bedroom apartments, alongside two ground-floor food and beverage tenancies fronting St Kilda Road.

The tower has been designed with substantial articulation and variable setbacks to minimise perceived bulk and maintain view corridors along the boulevard. Urbis, which prepared the planning report, said the design “has been significantly articulated through a curvilinear design” with “an interplay with materials, façade expression and depth” to create visual separation and visual interest.

The proposal also includes 254 basement car spaces, landscaped pedestrian links connecting St Kilda Road and Queens Lane, and a biophilic landscape strategy featuring canopy trees, raised planters, cascading greenery and a glass oculus pool overlooking the eastern frontage.

Planning documents confirm the $270.1 million development will contribute 3 per cent of project costs to the Social Housing Growth Fund as part of the application process.

Wing Tai acquired the St Kilda Road property in 2018 alongside Abacus Property Group for $95.38 million, before later consolidating ownership of the site. The property previously served as the Victorian Automobile Chamber of Commerce headquarters for around 60 years.

The transformation of the St Kilda Rd boulevard is already beginning to materialise, with a number of high-profile projects recently completed, launched, or approaching launch as developers continue to back the long-term appeal of the precinct.

Among the most notable recent completions is Louise by Samuel Property Group, just off the strip on Queens Lane, the same pocket Hirsch &amp; Faigen recently launched The Queensbury. Mirvac is too on the same street with The Albertine, which is approaching completion.

Dexus recently secured approval for its slice of St Kilda Road, while Gurner also has approved plans for the precinct.

Joel Robinson

Wing Tai unveils 325-apartment St Kilda Road tower on former VACC House site

Malaysian developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/s-p-setia">SP Setia</a> is the latest to jump into St Leonards booming Transport Oriented Development precinct.

The developer, which has previously delivered Sapphire by the Gardens apartment development in Melbourne, identified the Atchison Street site in 2023. It filed a Scoping Report around 12 months ago, and now has revealed the designs for the new&nbsp;40-storey mixed-use tower.

The State Significant Development Application covers <a href="https://next-portal.urban.com.au/projects/14650/summary">20-22 Atchison Street</a>, a 1,374 sqm site positioned between St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, the project would deliver 181 apartments, above a four-storey commercial podium, five basement levels, and new public domain works along Mitchell Street. The apartment mix comprises 35 one-bedroom apartments, 39 one-bedroom-plus-study apartments, 85 two-bedroom apartments, and 22 three-bedroom residences.

The proposal has been lodged as a shop-top housing development under the NSW Government’s TOD planning pathway, which allows increased density around key transport infrastructure. The site sits within the recently rezoned Crows Nest Accelerated TOD Precinct.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b799673d-48e2-46b0-801a-0e33a9330100" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20site.png?VersionId=dPh0UfwfaHpbFL1R7H1cbZNbIW0CHbCC" />

SP Setia acquired the Atchison Street site as part of its continued expansion into the Australian apartment market. In comments made to City &amp; Country (The Edge Malaysia) in 2023, SP Setia President and CEO Datuk Choong Kai Wai described the acquisition as “a strategic move” aligned with the group’s post-pandemic market recovery strategy.

“Our target for this exceptional development is local and overseas buyers, including first-home buyers, downsizers and investors,” Choong said.

The tower has been designed as a slender vertical form rising from a mixed-use podium, with COX Architecture positioning the development as a response to the evolving St Leonards and Crows Nest skyline.

“The purpose of the project is to facilitate the delivery of high-quality housing at a strategically located site and deliver a built tower outcome that is consistent with the desired future character of St Leonards and aligns with the TOD controls,” the design report stated.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b1a85eee-76f7-436c-a6da-73ba827b9b13" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20entry.png?VersionId=dA9jHGPMcm.dDbwk4QfxqWiY5bfh3UVt" />

The podium would incorporate retail uses fronting Atchison Street, commercial tenancies, landscaped communal areas, and pedestrian improvements along Mitchell Street. Vehicle access and loading would be consolidated via Atchison Lane.

Residents would have access to more than 665 sqm of communal indoor and outdoor spaces, while the development proposes 96 parking spaces across five basement levels.

The proposal also includes a commitment for 10 per cent of residential floor space to be allocated toward affordable housing through a monetary contribution.

COX said the tower form responds directly to the emerging high-density character of the precinct while seeking to maximise solar access, cross ventilation, and outlook from apartments.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2163f85c-f63b-4be3-aafa-f8763976cec5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Article%20Feature%20Image%20%28Grid%29_5.png?VersionId=WiAmtIKJ6.ZQ41EtYEQ1fol7AeorKBlL" />

“The building is orientated towards north,” the Apartment Design Guide compliance report noted, adding that the tower’s slim form was driven by the constrained inner-urban site dimensions.

The design also incorporates landscaped setbacks and communal open space at podium level, intended to soften the interface with surrounding streets and improve pedestrian amenity.

The project adds to a growing wave of redevelopment proposals reshaping St Leonards and Crows Nest following the opening of the Sydney Metro City line and the NSW Government’s push for higher-density housing around major transport nodes.

Last week Stockland filed plans just down the road. They want to build a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/601-pacific-highway-st-leonards-nsw-2065">52-storey tower on Pacific Highway</a>.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">First look: Stockland plans 52-storey, 538-apartment St Leonards tower&nbsp;</a>

First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a> has revealed plans for a new mixed-use tower at 10 Dangar Street, Wickham, advancing a proposal that would reshape the southern gateway to Newcastle’s city centre with one of the city’s tallest residential buildings.

The State Significant Development proposal, now on exhibition, seeks approval for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bowline-10-dangar-street-wickham-nsw-2293">43-storey tower</a> immediately adjacent to the Newcastle Interchange. The project would deliver around 200 apartments, including 42 affordable housing dwellings, alongside 99 co-living units, a 171-room hotel, retail space, and new public domain integrated through the site.

The scheme marks a significant escalation of plans previously approved for the site. Urban Property Group took over the prominent 2,904 sqm parcel, where excavation and demolition had already commenced under an earlier consent for a 14-storey mixed-use development.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="58a96dd9-407f-4d20-86b4-94e4bfeef74b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20podium.png?VersionId=LGlf08pdFGAZDzvx_CXC4XakHNZRuEE0" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/sjb-architects">SJB</a>, the tower has been conceived as a landmark transit-oriented development anchored to the Newcastle Interchange precinct. The proposal includes 245 build-to-sell apartments across a mix of one, two, and three-bedroom residences, as well as two penthouses. Fifteen apartments and one operational unit are earmarked for NDIS housing. The co-living component would add a further 99 units, while the podium would accommodate retail uses and hotel facilities.

SJB said the site presents “a valuable opportunity to anchor the precinct by setting the standard for design, active ground planes and character at the key southern gateway.”

The architecture responds directly to the site’s position beside major transport infrastructure and within one of Newcastle’s fastest-evolving urban renewal precincts. The tower form sits above a sculpted podium designed to frame new public spaces, including a through-site pedestrian link connecting Station Street to Hannell Street, landscaped plazas, and activated retail edges.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a7bd6ff0-f7db-4ce8-a6dc-ea56e72c6149" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20lanne.png?VersionId=xzf39VADyhj7zBQY2I9fx9vI62u2tuSb" />

The design report describes the project as part of the broader transition of Wickham into “a vibrant, high-quality mixed-use urban precinct” that leverages proximity to the station, open space, and regional connectivity.

A detailed public art strategy has also been prepared for the development. The strategy positions the project as “a transit-oriented development of state significance at the gateway to Newcastle’s city centre” and outlines a series of integrated artworks responding to Newcastle’s industrial and transport heritage.

Creative Road’s curatorial framework for the project, titled Unveil, draws on “stratified surfaces, carved volumes, and light-filled apertures” while referencing Newcastle’s transformation from an industrial city into a contemporary education and technology hub.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="77a882bb-14b1-4d28-99ff-9438e39508c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20site.png?VersionId=cevgo_vN0eKPK78P8YcEu3mKPLkpFqE7" />

The proposal is being advanced through the NSW Housing Delivery Authority pathway after being declared State Significant Development in June 2025. The accompanying scoping report states the development aims to “maximise the site’s proximity to the Newcastle Interchange by delivering transit-oriented development” while increasing housing supply and affordable housing provision within the Newcastle LGA.

Urban Property Group’s plans align with the long-term strategic vision established under the Wickham Master Plan, which identified the interchange precinct as suitable for substantial uplift in height and density. The current proposal would significantly intensify that vision, positioning the tower among the tallest developments proposed for Newcastle.

The site sits immediately north of the Newcastle Interchange, bounded by Dangar Street, Hannell Street, and Charles Street. It is surrounded by a rapidly growing cluster of residential towers and mixed-use projects that have emerged following the completion of the light rail and transport interchange.

First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s latest tower at Wickham interchange

Bottega House has completed settlement of a landmark riverfront site in Macquarie Street, St Lucia, representing its first major Brisbane development.&nbsp;

Positioned on the banks of the Brisbane River, the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/180-macquarie-street-st-lucia-qld-4067">premium site at 180 Macquarie Street</a> features uninterrupted river frontage in one of Brisbane’s most tightly held residential precincts.&nbsp;

The proposed development, currently under assessment with Brisbane City Council, has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/plus-studio">Plus Studio</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/mim-design">Mim Design</a> and will deliver a boutique collection of premium residences positioned specifically for owner occupiers and downsizers.&nbsp;

The residences are set to redefine luxury apartment living in the area, with a focus on architectural quality, refined finishes, landscape integration and elevated amenities including curated wellness facilities, resort-style pools and recreation spaces rarely seen in the local market.&nbsp;

Exclusive sales for the project will be led by Keenan &amp; Byrne, ahead of an anticipated launch later this year.&nbsp;

Bottega House Managing Director Nick Malloch said the project reflects the group’s ambition to deliver a highly curated residential offering within one of Brisbane’s most tightly held precincts.&nbsp;

“This is an incredibly rare riverfront opportunity and one we have approached with a long-term perspective,” Malloch said.&nbsp;

“Our vision from the outset was to create a boutique collection of residences that feel more like private homes than traditional apartments, with generous proportions, refined finishes and exceptional amenity throughout."

Malloch says there is a&nbsp;lack of premium owner-occupier stock of this quality in the market, particularly for downsizers wanting space, privacy and a true lifestyle offering without compromise.&nbsp;

"Demand is expected to be strong given the scarcity of premium riverfront opportunities of this nature within Brisbane’s inner-west."&nbsp;

Bottega House secures landmark riverfront site in St Lucia 

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The arrival of the first piling rig officially marks the commencement of construction at SIERA’s new beachside apartment development, Exhale, in Northcliffe.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/exhale-surfers-paradise-8-enderley-avenue-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Exhale</a>, a glass-encased tower featuring 54 large-scale apartments at 8 Enderley Avenue, is SIERA’s third Gold Coast development. It follows the recently completed PIPIS Bilinga beachfront project, which achieved suburb-record prices, and the soon-to-be-completed Chevron Island development, Tapestry.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359603]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/siera">SIERA</a> Founder and Managing Director Brent Thompson said the arrival of the piling rig represented a significant milestone for the development, which is scheduled for completion in late 2028.

Over the next month, around 260 piles are expected to be installed as work progresses on the basement structure. The building is anticipated to rise above ground level early next year, before unveiling its sculptural glass curtain wall, developed in collaboration with specialist façade engineers.

“The façade was designed to maximise panoramic coastal views while creating a distinctive architectural identity,” Thompson said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=355935]

Designed by BDA Architecture, Exhale will comprise just 54 two- and three-bedroom residences across 26 levels, a level of low-density living rarely delivered in this beachside pocket between Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach.

The project has been conceived as a resident-only building, with no short-stay accommodation permitted. SIERA says the model is intended to appeal to long-term owner-occupiers rather than transient holiday demand.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=361052]

Residences have been designed with large-format layouts and expansive glazing, with most apartments featuring more than 30 metres of glass frontage to maximise natural light and ocean views.

The amenity offering spans two levels and centres on wellness and lifestyle, including a heated magnesium pool, sauna, yoga and Pilates studio, gymnasium, private dining facilities, cinema lounge, and dedicated surfcraft storage.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359607]

More than half of the apartments have already sold. SIERA has also opened a sales gallery for Exhale at its Chevron Island commercial premises, near its Tapestry tower and the site of its second Chevron Island apartment development, which is slated to launch in early 2027.
</section>
</section>

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112661]

SIERA kicks off construction at Northcliffe tower Exhale

Home Values

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Combined capital city home values have increased substantially since the financial crisis in 2008 however, this is largely being driven by Sydney and Melbourne with value growth muted in most other capital cities.
As the financial crisis hit in 2007/08, Australia’s combined capital city housing markets experienced a -6.1% decline in home values between March and December 2008.  Due to aggressive interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank (RBA) and the introduction of the boost to the First Home Owners Grant, further home value declines were averted.  In fact, home values began to rise across two cycles; from December 2008 and in June 2016, 7.5 years later, combined capital city home values are now 54.9 percent higher.
The first chart highlights the increases in home values over the past 7.5 years.  What is immediately noticeable is that the increases have been all about Sydney (87.9 percent) and Melbourne (71.8 percent).  In fact, most other capital cities have recorded growth which is around or below the rate of inflation.
<div>
<h3>Total change in capital city dwelling values December 2008 to June 2016</h3>
<a href="/images/2016/07/19/2016-07-15--image1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/07/19/2016-07-15--image1.jpg" alt="">
From December 2008, combined capital city home values increased until October 2010, rising by 21.8 percent. 
Official interest rates were first increased coming out of the financial crisis in October 2009, rising by 175 basis points to November 2010.  The boost to the First Home Buyers Grant was partially removed in September 2009 and completely removed after December 31 2010.  These combined factors saw the rate of value growth slow, followed by a decline in dwelling values. 
The second chart highlights that from December 2008 to October 2010 dwelling values rose in all cities with Sydney, Melbourne and Darwin the standouts.  Despite very low interest rates, Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth and Hobart recorded little value growth over this period.
<h3>Total change in capital city dwelling values December 2008 to October 2010</h3>
<a href="/images/2016/07/19/2016-07-15--image2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/07/19/2016-07-15--image2.jpg" alt="">
Between October 2010 and May 2012 as stimulus was removed from the housing market, combined capital city home values fell by -7.4 percent.  Darwin, Melbourne and Brisbane recorded the largest falls over the period.  Looking back at this period it is clear that low interest rates and first home buyer incentives stimulated the market and, as they were removed, demand was shown to be fragile. 
In October 2010, official interest rates were recorded at 4.75 percent and by May 2012 they had fallen by 100 basis points to 3.75 percent.
<h3>Total change in capital city dwelling values October 2010  to May 2012</h3>
<a href="/images/2016/07/19/2016-07-15--image3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/07/19/2016-07-15--image3.jpg" alt="">
From May 2012 to June 2016, combined capital city home values have increased by 37.3 percent while official interest rates fell by 200 basis points to 1.75 percent.  Although home values have increased over the period, Sydney and Melbourne have recorded a substantially higher rate of value growth than all other capital cities. 
<h3>Total change in capital city dwelling values May 2012 to June 2016</h3>
<a href="/images/2016/07/19/2016-07-15--image4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/07/19/2016-07-15--image4.jpg" alt="">
The data indicates that since the financial crisis the capital city housing market could be described as being extremely interest rate sensitive.  Digging deeper into the data shows that in reality it is only Sydney and Melbourne that have really responded to the stimulus of low interest rates.  The relative strength of the Sydney and Melbourne economies and the much greater employment growth has clearly assisted drive housing values higher in these cities.
Until the economic performance improves outside of Sydney and Melbourne it seems unlikely that sustainable growth will return in these areas despite the extremely low interest rates which are set to potentially move even lower over the coming months.  For Sydney and Melbourne although affordability is increasingly becoming stretched home owners have experienced a substantial increase in equity. 
With historically weak rental markets and record low yields it will be interesting to see if investors and upgraders in the two largest capital cities continue to show a thirst for housing in these cities given the growth phase has now been running for more than four years.
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.
 
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ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Home value growth remains all about Sydney and Melbourne: Cameron Kusher

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Home values fell in the March quarter for the first time in two and a half years, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics' index of dwelling values across the eight capital cities.
The inxex fell 0.2 percent in the three months to March.
The December quarter had seen it plateau.
It was the first decline since the September quarter of 2012, when the index also fell 0.2 percent. 
The bigger dip were attached dwellings - apartments, townhouses and semi-detached homes - that fell 0.8 percent over the quarter.
In Sydney attached dwelling values fell 0.6 percent over the quarter, following a 0.8 percent decline in December.
Melbourne apartments fell 1.3 percent. 
Prices rose in Brisbane by 0.7 percent, Hobart (2.3 percent) and Darwin, where they gained 0.1 percent - the first increase after five quarters of decline. 
The national capital city weighted average index for prices of established houses was unchanged, however there was a 0.6 percent fall in Sydney house prices - the second quarterly fall after the December quarter's 2.1 percent decline.
The ABS data suggested Melbourne prices rose 1.4 percent and Brisbane houses increased 0.2 percent. Houses in Adelaide (0.6 percent) and Hobart (0.9 percent) also rose.
They fell 1.8 percent in Perth, 2.8 per cent in Darwin - their seventh consecutive quarterly decline - while there was a 0.1 percent dip in Canberra.
The total number of residential dwellings rose to 9,661,500 in the quarter from 9,622,500 in December.
The value of housing stock rose less than 1 percent to $5.93 trillion from $5.91 trillion.
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Apartment prices dip in March quarter: ABS

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Despite expectations of steady income and jobs growth in Melbourne, house values are forecast to decline more than 6 percent from the end of 2016 through to early 2020.
However, the declines are likely to be confined mostly to apartments in comparison with detached dwellings, according to CoreLogic-Moody’s Analytics Australia Home Value Index Forecast.
House values in Melbourne reached a new high in April, but the outlook was described as "less positive."
The current momentum will enable values to gain 7.1 percent this year, but the effects of high levels of incoming supply—200,000 dwellings approved for construction from 2013 to 2015—will depress house values through to 2020. 
CoreLogic-Moody’s Analytics Australia Home Value Index Forecast, suggested house values nationwide are expected to rise 6 percent this year and 4.1% in 2017.
Much of this rise will be driven by continued gains in Sydney, where values are forecast to rise 7.3 percent this year, or about half the 14.9 percent rise in 2015.
Melbourne’s market is nearing a peak and could be entering a slump because of high incoming supply.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Melbourne apartments to bear brunt of price downturn: CoreLogic Moody's

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<div>Residential listings fell across the country during May with vendors lifting asking prices 0.5 percent to 1 percent during the month, according to SQM Research.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Research from SQM found property listings in Sydney fell by 6.2 percent during the month, but are 16.9 percent higher compared to May 2015.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/06/09/sqm1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div>
<img src="/images/2016/06/09/sqm1.jpg" alt=""> SQM Research managing director Louis Christopher said Hobart recorded a 6.1 percent decline in listings for the month, with sale listings are also now down by 11.8 percentage points for the year, which SQM believes indicates a strengthening housing market in Tasmania. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>"Melbourne also recorded yearly falls with listings down 6.4 percent from this time last year (May 2015)," he said.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"It’s possible the interest rate cut at the beginning of the month may have already led to an increase in buyer confidence, leading to higher absorption rates for listed properties.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"Certainly, it seems that vendors were a little more confident during the month with vendor asking prices rising across most cities. From a forecasting perspective we are pleased that our 2016 forecasts made in October last year, seem to be on target for all cities."</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"Year-on-year results reveal Melbourne median asking prices have risen 13.4 percent for houses and 6.4 percent for units compared to this time last year. Canberra has also experienced yearly changes with median asking prices for houses climbing 10.4 percent and 0.2 percent for units.</div>
<div> </div>
<div> Median Asking Prices                 <a href="/images/2016/06/09/682e5bf4-41d9-49b3-abe0-abbbcec1b6b2.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div>
<img src="/images/2016/06/09/682e5bf4-41d9-49b3-abe0-abbbcec1b6b2.png" alt=""> Source: <a href="https://sqmresearch.us5.list-manage.com/track/click?u=9badbd870addb4af72206c2eb&amp;id=f6c78f3bcf&amp;e=0aab96dc54" target="_blank">www.sqmresearch.com.au</a>  
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May residential prices up, listings down: SQM

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Despite the recent slowdown, housing finance data highlights that investor activity in the housing market is starting to rise again and when you look at total returns from housing it’s no surprise.
<div>
The CoreLogic RP Data Accumulation Index which has been published since June 2009 highlights the total returns from residential property.  The total returns include both the increase in values as well as gross rental returns.  
The first chart shows the annual change in the total returns (accumulation) index over time. While combined capital city home values recorded longer and deeper falls during 2011-12, total returns were negative for only a short period of time thanks to the uplift from rental yields. More recently you can see that the annual change in total returns across the combined capital cities has remained quite strong.
<h3>Combined capital city annual changes in total returns for houses and units</h3>
<a href="/images/2016/06/09/2016-06-06--img1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/06/09/2016-06-06--img1.jpg" alt="">
 Over the 12 months to May 2016, combined capital city home values have increased by 10.0 percent while total returns have been recorded at a higher 13.9 percent. Looking at the individual capital cities, all cities except for Perth have recorded positive total returns over the past year. Sydney and Melbourne which have been the most active investment markets have seen the highest total returns at 16.9 percent and 17.5 percent respectively over the past twelve months. It should be noted that gross rental returns in both of these cities are now at record lows highlighting that the majority of these returns have come via an increase in home values.
<h3>Annual change in capital city total returns, 12 months to May 2016</h3>
<a href="/images/2016/06/09/2016-06-06--img2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/06/09/2016-06-06--img2.jpg" alt="">
The third chart highlights the total returns over the past five years across all capital cities. Again, Sydney in particular, has seen far superior total returns compared to all other capital cities. 
Melbourne has also experienced relatively strong total returns over the past five years. 
Again this highlights why these two cities in particular have remained so popular with investors. In all other capital cities returns from residential property have been positive.  In many of these cities the total returns have been driven more so by the rental returns rather than the capital growth which has been the key driver in Sydney and Melbourne.
<h3>5 year total change in total returns, to May 2016</h3>
<a href="/images/2016/06/09/2016-06-06--img3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/06/09/2016-06-06--img3.jpg" alt="">
Despite the recent rebound in value growth, the mature capital growth cycle and record low rental returns in Sydney and Melbourne, total returns are unlikely to be as strong in these cities over the coming years. A more balanced investment approach which focusses on moderate capital growth and relatively strong rental returns is likely to be a superior housing investment profile over the coming years. 
This data also highlights why housing investment has been so popular. In a low interest rate and subsequently low return environment housing has, over recent years, offered attractive returns. Whether this continues to be the case remains to be seen.
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.
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Total property returns show why housing investment remains so popular: CoreLogic

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Capital city home values in Sydney are up 12.7 percent year on year according to CoreLogic RP Data, with a 7.8 percent year to date change.
Home values in Melbourne are up 12.8 percent, Brisbane 7.2 percent and Adelaide 5 percent.
Prices fell in Perth 3.8 percent
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Home values in Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide up year on year: CoreLogic RP Data

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The rate of home value growth continue to moderate as housing market conditions cool in Sydney and Melbourne, whilst the remaining capital cities recorded small value increases to moderate declines, according to the CoreLogic RP Data March Home Value Index.
During March, capital city dwelling values recorded a subtle lift, rising by 0.2 percent to take capital city home values 1.6 percent higher over the first quarter of 2016. The quarterly increase in home values was broad based across the nation’s capitals, with Perth (-0.9 percent) and Brisbane (-0.1 percent) the only two cities to record negative movements in dwelling values over the past three months.
“The March quarter rise in capital city dwelling values is in stark contrast to the first quarter of 2015, when values increased by 3.0 percent, which is almost double the current pace of quarterly growth. However, compared with the final quarter of 2015, when capital city dwelling values were down 1.4 percent, the housing market has shown a modest rebound in growth which is well below the strong capital gains recorded over the first half of 2015,” CoreLogic RP Data head of research Tim Lawless said.
“The annual pace of home value appreciation across Australia’s capital cities highlights the slowing growth trend,” he said.
Following the March results, the annual rate of capital growth across the capital cities has now reached its lowest point in 31 months, with dwelling values rising by 6.4 percent over the past twelve months across the combined capitals. Furthermore, no Australian capital city has recorded an annual growth rate in the double digits over the past twelve months. Melbourne remains the capital city with the strongest annual growth, with dwelling values increasing by 9.8 percent over the past twelve months.
Lawless said, “The housing market has been losing momentum since July last year, when capital city dwelling values were increasing at the annual rate of 11.1 percent.”
Perth and Darwin are the only two capital cities where home values are trending lower on an annual basis, down 2.0 percent and 1.8 percent respectively. However, Lawless noted the moderation in the rate of capital growth in the Sydney market has been the most pronounced, with annual dwelling value growth more than halving to 7.4 percent per annum, from a high of 18.4 percent per annum in July last year. 
The Melbourne market has been much more resilient, with annual growth in dwelling values slipping below the 10 percent mark for the first time since May last year, to reach 9.8 percent at the end of March 2016. 
The current growth cycle has been running since values troughed in May 2012. Through to March 2016, capital city dwelling values have risen by a cumulative 32.2 percent. Over the cycle to date, Sydney home values have seen the most significant level of appreciation, with dwelling values 49.2 percent higher since values started rising, followed by Melbourne at 35.7 percent cumulative growth.
Darwin and Perth moved through their respective cyclical market peaks more than a year ago, with Darwin home values peaking in May 2014, whilst Perth’s housing market peaked in December 2014. Since then, both Darwin and Perth home values have fallen by a total of 4.6 percent.
According to the March results, most capital cities continue to see the detached housing sector outperform the unit market. Over the past twelve months, house values rose by 6.6 percent compared with a 4.7 percent increase in unit values.
“The over performance by detached housing relative to units can most likely be attributed to the more efficient release of higher density housing supply together with an ongoing shortage of strategically located vacant land and new detached housing stock,” Lawless said.
The largest performance gap between houses and units is evident in Melbourne, where higher unit supply appears to be weighing on the rate of value growth. Melbourne house values were up 10.7 per cent over the past twelve months, whilst unit values are only 2.5 percent higher over the past year.
According to Lawless, “The CoreLogic December 2015 Pain and Gain report released last week showed 19.5 percent of all Melbourne council area units were resold at a gross loss, meaning, nearly one fifth of all apartments that resold over the last three months of 2015 did so at a price lower than what they were previously purchased for. Such a high proportion of loss making resales is a likely indicator of negative equity developing in this precinct as a result of supply outstripping demand.”
With the pace of capital gains slowing, the compression of rental yields has also eased, with capital city yields experiencing a small increase from their previous record lows. Every capital city has seen a deterioration in the rental yield profile over the past twelve months, with gross rental yields reducing from 3.7 percent across the combined capitals twelve months ago, to 3.5 percent at the end of March this year.
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Melbourne continues to show the lowest gross rental yields, with houses averaging 2.9 per cent (which is still a record low) and unit yields averaging 4.1 per cent (up from 4.0 per cent).
Lawless said, “A low rental yield scenario in Melbourne and Sydney is likely to act as a further dampener to investment demand in these markets, as the prospects for capital gains become less certain.
“We’re likely to see many investors turn towards other housing markets where the outlook for capital gains is stronger, housing is more affordable and the yield profile is healthier.”
Other market indicators are pointing towards a continued moderation in the rate of value growth,” Lawless said.
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Listing numbers have been trending higher, with the number of capital city homes currently being advertised for sale almost 8.5 per cent higher than a year ago. The most substantial lift in residential property listings has been in Sydney, where listing numbers are now 19.2 per cent higher than at the same time last year.
“Higher listing numbers means buyers have more choice and vendors may need to adjust their price expectations in light of the increase in available housing stock.”
“Additionally, housing finance figures are showing a trend towards fewer new mortgage commitments. Based on seasonally adjusted data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics to January, the value of owner occupier new mortgage commitments is down 7.6 per cent from last year’s peak, whilst the value of investor loans is 20.0 per cent lower compared to last year’s peak. Strict prudential supervision from APRA, as well as a potential rise in mortgage rates mooted for later this year due to higher lender funding costs, are likely to add to a further slowdown in credit growth during 2016.
“The lower number of housing finance commitments is also reflected in a slowdown in the number of homes transacting. For the twelve months to March 2016, an estimated 299,100 dwellings were sold across the capital cities, which is 9.9 per cent lower than the previous twelve month period. The number of homes sold across Sydney over the past twelve months is 18 per cent lower than a year ago, while Melbourne transaction numbers are 9.7 per cent lower year-on-year,” Mr Lawless said.
"Overall, no indicators have emerged to suggest that dwelling values are starting to show sharp declines in any of the capital cities. Perth and Darwin are the only cities to record negative value movements over the past year, and the declines from their recent peak which was more than twelve months ago have been modest at just 4.6 per cent. Sydney and Melbourne growth rates are moderating after a strong cycle of growth, while other cities are recording minimal shifts higher and lower.”
“Recent forecasts released collaboratively by CoreLogic RP Data and Moodys Analytics, reinforced a controlled slowdown in the Australian housing market was underway. Based on the forecasts, which factor in a series of short run indicators and long run macroeconomic scenarios, we are likely to see Sydney and Melbourne dwelling values continue to rise, at least on average over the 2016 and 2017 calendar year, however growth rates are likely to be substantially lower than what has been recorded over previous years, while some of the underperforming capitals, such as Brisbane, Canberra and Hobart may see some acceleration in their rates of capital gain by 2017.
 
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Annual rate of housing market capital gains slips to slowest pace in 31 months: CoreLogic RP Data

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Residential property values in Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide increased this week to the last, according to CoreLogic RP Data, who found values stayed flat in Brisbane and increased 0.1 percent in Perth.
Melbourne property has had a year to date change so far of 3.7 percent.
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Residential property values in Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide: CoreLogic RP Data

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According to the just-launched CoreLogic-Moody’s Analytics Australian Forecast Home Value Index, home values are forecast to continue rising solidly in Sydney and Melbourne over the next decade. 
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<div>It sees annual price growth of more than +5 per cent returning for Perth by 2017, but subdued growth for Adelaide over the next two years, while Darwin prices are expected to decline in 2016.</div>
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<div>Of the capital cities, Brisbane is forecast to fare best over the next two years with home value growth of around +12 per cent.</div>
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PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>. 
His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.
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10 year home price forecast for Sydney: Pete Wargent

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Over the 10 years to January 2016, home values across the combined capital cities have increased by a total 72.0% which is well short of values doubling over the decade. 
If we look at the split between houses and units, house values are 73.1% higher compared to a 64.3% increase in unit values.
Although combined capital city home values haven’t doubled over the past decade, the previous decade was quite a different story. Between January 1996 and January 2006 combined capital city home values increased by 151.7% with house values up 159.6% and unit values 110.1% higher. Based on this data, the most recent decade of capital city home value growth has been half that of the previous decade. 
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At a combined capital city level, the index is weighted so it is therefore heavily influenced by the performance of the larger capital cities. Taking a look at value growth over the past decade across individual capital cities shows a diversity in results.
Melbourne is the only capital city housing market where home values doubled over the past decade. In fact, many cities are a long way from having doubled with values in Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth, Hobart and Canberra having all increased by less than 50% over the past decade. Home values in Sydney and Darwin have each recorded increases of more than 75% over the past decade however, they too fell well short of seeing values double over the decade.
Over the previous decade (10 years to January 2006) home values more than doubled across each capital city (note that Hobart values are for houses only and data is not available for Darwin). 
In fact, value growth over the previous decade was more than three times greater than over the most recent decade in Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth, Hobart and Canberra while nationally it was more than double the rate of value growth over the past 10 years. Even Sydney and Melbourne recorded much stronger home value growth over the previous decade compared to the past decade. 
Looking at value growth over the five years to January 2016, it looks unlikely that by the time January 2021 rolls around that home values would have doubled over the decade in any of the capital cities. Over the past five years, Sydney and Melbourne are the only capital cities in which home values have increased by more than 10% with values lower in Hobart and Darwin.
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While there was a time when home values doubled over a 10 year period the data suggests that the days of such rapid value rises are behind us. It’s important to remember that in recent times we have had record low mortgage rates yet that has failed to spark any substantial home value growth outside of Sydney and Melbourne. 
With little wage growth and ongoing economic uncertainty it is clear that in most areas of the country there are limits to what people can pay for housing. Subsequently there has been little impetus for any significant value growth outside of the two largest capital cities. Even in Sydney and Melbourne value growth has been substantially lower over the past decade than over the previous decade.
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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