<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/aura-by-aqualand-north-sydney-168-walker-street-north-sydney-nsw-2060">AURA</a>&nbsp;doesn’t just rise over North Sydney, it redefines it. Now in its final release, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/aqualand-australia">Aqualand</a>’s $1 billion architectural statement is not just complete, but already reshaping the way people live, connect and dine in this rapidly evolving harbourside CBD.

Positioned beside the new Victoria Cross Metro Station and boasting panoramic views across Sydney Harbour, Aura’s 386 residences crown a mixed-use precinct designed with unapologetic ambition. The curvaceous sandstone-inspired form by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/woods-bagot">Woods Bagot</a>, paired with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/richards-stanisich">Richard Stanisich</a>’s understated interiors, sets a design tone that’s both monumental and intimate.

At its peak, literally, the two penthouses so spectacular they command their own names; La Davina and Il Magnate. The residents are spread across the&nbsp;entire top floor, offering what many consider the most refined residences ever built in North Sydney. Designed by Richard and Kirsten Stanisich, each four-bedroom home is meticulously crafted to evoke calm, space, and permanence.&nbsp;

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/VB70993aG-I?si=adRBlXQliYmYvaSz" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>

The kitchens are fully wrapped in natural stone, with integrated Gaggenau appliances, Sub-Zero fridges, concealed sculleries, and even a zip hydro tap delivering boiling, chilled and sparkling water on demand. A linear stone fireplace anchors the open-plan living space, dividing lounge and dining zones with quiet sophistication.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=30959 project_image_fid=292861]

The master suite, meanwhile, feels more like a private retreat, complete with a custom stone makeup vanity, walk-through dressing area, and spa-inspired ensuite with heated stone floors, a freestanding Villeroy &amp; Boch tub, and timber veneer joinery throughout.

Kirsten Stanisich, Director of Richards Stanisich, said the penthouses offer incredible scale reflective of a single residence.&nbsp;

“We sought inspiration for these remarkable residences from the classic top-floor Parisian apartment," Stanisich said.

"We looked at what made these French apartments so elegant and found it really came down to their scale. It was ultimately this generosity of space that we used for the AURA penthouses, where we’ve designed considered rooms with deep large-scale proportions."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=30959 project_image_fid=310337]

Everyday living at Aura feels no less elevated. A dedicated 24-hour concierge, Technogym fitness centre, sky dining terraces, and a resort-style pool serve a lifestyle designed to rival luxury hotels.

At street level, Aqualand’s own hospitality arm, Etymon Projects, curates a precinct of LA-style bistros, Japanese fine dining, and local wine bars, all seamlessly integrated into the building’s sculptural podium.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=30959 project_image_fid=310337]

This final chapter, aptly dubbed The Finale, is more than a sales phase, it’s an invitation to two of the most exclusive apartments ever to be built in North Sydney.

With limited residences remaining, buyers can access curated incentives including stamp duty rebates, rental guarantees, legal fee coverage, and even $20,000 towards dining within the precinct.

From generous one-bedders to The Icons, two singular penthouses priced well into prestige territory, Aura’s offerings reflect a scale and calibre rarely seen in urban Sydney. And with move-in now immediate, this is no longer a promise of future luxury. It’s happening.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=30959]

Staff Writer

Aqualand unveils penthouse collection at AURA By Aqualand in North Sydney

There’s no sign of the development wave that began several years ago slowing along Old Burleigh Road.

Around 10 new apartment developments are either underway or preparing to launch along the 800-metre strip stretching from the southern edge of Surfers Paradise towards the heart of Broadbeach, collectively adding just shy of 1,000 new apartments to the beachfront corridor.

The latest plans propose a further 30 apartments to replace an original six-unit walk-up on a 658 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/20a-old-burleigh-road-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">20A Old Burleigh Road</a>. The 14-storey building has been designed by Ferro Chow Architecture, which recently joined the Elevation Architecture Group.

The developer behind the project is Geoffrey Booth, whose Future Liv In has focused on delivering rental accommodation across regional Australia.

<img alt="Old Burleigh Road" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="99d393e7-d404-43bc-80cb-6255c39b83d6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-01-05%20at%2012.28.44%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ZFT8F3mOny4M4ut.kFF3woC9WH9oR5gT" />

The Old Burleigh Road development will comprise 18 two-bedroom apartments, 10 three-bedroom apartments, and a single four-bedroom residence occupying the entirety of level 12. Above, the building will be crowned by a two-storey penthouse with its own private lift, several multi-purpose rooms, and two rooftop terraces — one featuring a puppy lawn and spa, the other offering a private swimming pool, sunset deck, and built-in barbecue.

Resident amenities will be located on the second level and include a pool with adjoining spa, cabana, and pool deck, along with an indoor residents’ lounge featuring a bar and an alfresco barbecue kitchen.

In the architectural statement submitted by Elevation Architecture, the project is referred to as “UMI”, which the firm says has been “inspired by the majestic hinterlands and shaped by the coastal climate”.

“It is an exemplar of how community living can still feel at one with nature, breathable, and deeply connected in place,” the architects noted.

They added that the site benefits from established building separation to adjoining towers, helping to maintain privacy, sunlight, and residential amenity, while still offering direct beach access within an urban setting.

“Drawing inspiration from the Gold Coast hinterlands and the region’s natural landscape, the podium and tower detail highlights the contrasting elements of treetop green and cliff-face peach. The vibrant texture and materiality shaped by time has a richness in depth and character.”

<img alt="Old Burleigh Road" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b3d6c923-a0ab-4d74-86da-177313447e8e" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-01-05%20at%2012.28.38%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=i2fygmoVQM6hWpbATTAW_yTitoMTrnI1" />

Old Burleigh Road has become a hotspot for developers, with the three-tower Jewel development kickstarting a wave of projects up and down the strip when it was completed in 2020.

Currently under construction and approaching completion is <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/faro-broadbeach-123-old-burleigh-road-broadbeach-qld-4218">FARO Broadbeach</a> by 5Point and Bottega, 21 large-scale half- and full-floor apartments. 5Point is also behind the recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/lumara-108-old-burleigh-road-broadbeach-qld-4218">Lumara</a>, another 37 apartments to add to the pipeline.

Luxury builder GRAYA is progressing construction on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/enclave-by-graya-118-old-burleigh-road-broadbeach-qld-4218">Enclave</a>, its first Gold Coast tower, while Polycell remains the most active developer on the street. They are preparing to launch <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/sandpiper-broadbeach-155-old-burleigh-road-broadbeach-qld-4218">Sandpiper</a>, a 50-storey redevelopment of the former Sandpiper Holiday Resort that will deliver around 200 apartments alongside extensive resident amenity. The group also has another 130-apartment project approved nearby, as does <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/dvb-approved-for-second-broadbeach-apartment-development">Dean Gallagher’s DVB Projects</a>.

Joel Robinson

First look: Old Burleigh Road apartment development wave continues

Sunshine Coast developer Habitat Development Group continues to position itself as one of the region’s largest new apartment developers.

Its latest project is in Maroochydore, where it is currently delivering <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-millwell-2-millwell-road-east-maroochydore-qld-4558">The Millwell</a>. Adjacent to the new 53-hectare Maroochydore City Centre project, Habitat is planning a further 180 apartments on a 3,468 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/132-136-aerodrome-road-maroochydore-qld-4558">132–136 Aerodrome Road</a>. The site was purchased with approval for a smaller 13-storey, 103-unit building.

Habitat will demolish the two existing retail centres, currently home to the Salvation Army Family Store and Neighbours Aid, and replace them with an 18-storey building featuring the significant rooftop amenities that have become a hallmark of Habitat developments in recent years. The rooftop will include both indoor and outdoor spaces, anchored by an infinity swimming pool.

<img alt="Maroochydore" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="ad434d07-666b-4614-b33e-530ad6a2d261" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-01-05%20at%2010.12.33%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=7pyLsPWKQuwv0us3_v.9DmbzEc2VZe9Z" />

There will be a mix of one- to four-bedroom apartments.

The Development Assessment Report, submitted to the Sunshine Coast Council, says the proposal&nbsp;is not speculative, but a response to both zoning intent and demonstrated housing need.

“The proposed development represents an appropriate and logical intensification of the site, consistent with the planning framework and the intended urban outcomes for the locality.”

Across the Sunshine Coast, councils are increasingly scrutinising not just height or yield, but whether new projects genuinely align with the long-term structure plans underpinning growth corridors. The&nbsp;ASTP Planning Report&nbsp;reinforces the approach, noting that the project has been shaped around site responsiveness rather than generic typology.

“The development has been designed to respond to the physical constraints and opportunities of the site, while delivering a high-quality residential outcome that integrates with the existing and emerging urban context.”

<img alt="Habitat" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3a03fc54-4ca5-4868-88d0-eeced70604e2" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-01-05%20at%2010.12.28%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=1pkK3lJrrZjkghTLBReM2zatcas4Nc4B" />

In mid-2025, Habitat, a developer that also builds its own projects, commenced construction on The Millwell, located just over one kilometre from the new proposal. The Millwell will comprise more than 200 apartments across two eight-storey buildings.

Habitat also has two projects on Lake Kawana in Birtinya: <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/st-clair-birtinya-930-931-waterside-retreat-birtinya-qld-4575">St Clair</a>, a 200-unit, two-building development launched last year and set to welcome buyers this year; and Esperance, a 175-apartment project currently progressing through the development approval process.

First look: Habitat continues to bolster Sunshine Coast apartment pipeline with Maroochydore development plans

John Camilleri, the breeder of legendary racehorse Winx, is set to deliver a landmark two-tower beachfront development that would redefine the Surfers Paradise skyline.

Camilleri, who spent around $100 million acquiring development sites across the Gold Coast in 2025, has lodged plans for two new towers on the dress-circle stretch of Garfield Terrace, just two days before Christmas.

In assembling the site, Camilleri's Celestino Developments has effectively acquired the 71 Garfield project by Iris Capital and AALTO by Weiya Holdings, creating an unrivalled <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/63-79-garfield-terrace-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">4,000 sqm beachfront holding along Garfield Terrace</a>.

The proposal comprises two residential towers of 55 and 48 storeys, linked by a dramatic skybridge which will home “exclusive VIP and wellness amenities.”

In total, the development would deliver 275 two-, three- and four-bedroom apartments across the two towers, rising above a shared landscaped podium that incorporates a central green space and a beachfront swimming pool stretching more than 90 metres.

<img alt="DBI" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="097900f3-6bef-4919-b168-b08f2f762876" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-30%20at%209.37.58%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=et0SpmcvaPPVrexI_zWi46BVFtZBxAzx" />

Architecture firm DBI, in documents submitted to Gold Coast City Council, said the project at 63–79 Garfield Terrace would “establish a new benchmark for beachfront residential living on the Gold Coast.”

"The project occupies a rare, uninterrupted oceanfront site and has been shaped by a design philosophy that merges architectural elegance with environmental responsiveness and a carefully curated lifestyle experience. Together, the 48-storey North Tower and 55-storey South Tower form a distinctive twin-tower composition whose dynamic silhouette will make a significant contribution to the Surfers Paradise skyline."

DBI said the architectural language draws inspiration from the fluidity and movement of the coastal landscape.

"Each tower is defined by organic, curving forms and continuous balcony ribbons that wrap the buildings, providing deep shading, enhancing environmental performance, and reinforcing the rhythmic, sculptural expression of the façade. These balcony forms also reduce the apparent mass of the towers while maintaining strong visual continuity from podium to summit. Sculpted reflective downturns run along the western spine of both towers, shifting and lifting as they extend upwards to frame service zones and open eastward to maximise ocean views."

<img alt="Garfield" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a2a00ce3-a0e9-45d6-b4b5-b7baed592ac5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-30%20at%209.53.40%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=DnruWV1dhLrtXOeElwekyd7vPq2gw55t" />

The project’s most striking feature is the skybridge at level 45, which will house executive lounges, formal dining spaces, wellness facilities and panoramic ocean-facing views.

“The skybridge enhances the identity of the development, promotes social interaction, and delivers a lifestyle experience not found elsewhere on the Gold Coast,” DBI added.

The podium will host an extensive suite of recreational amenities, including resident lounges, private dining rooms, a large open green lawn, and the signature 90-metre pool stretching along the beachfront. The pool is divided into lap, lounge and children’s zones.

The southern end of the podium will accommodate additional wellness facilities, including a gymnasium, plunge pools, treatment rooms and a dedicated yoga lawn.

<img alt="Garfield" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="ee1b4f25-231f-4804-83b1-a573a1481962" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-30%20at%209.55.47%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=zObzIA3D5w7EwqPsHjr2pKrA4vbB28zL" />

There will be 127 apartments in the North Tower and 148 in the South Tower, including multiple penthouses, while the Enderley Avenue and Oceanway frontages will be activated by a series of food and beverage tenancies.

Camilleri emerged as the most active site acquirer on the Gold Coast in 2025. He spent just over $30 million acquiring Pacific Point, a 10-level Surfers Paradise apartment block and an adjoining three-level duplex, from fellow racing identity and Aquis billionaire Tony Fung. Plans are now underway for a 93-apartment, 40-storey tower on the 1,682 sqm site.

He also paid $53.65 million for the 1,500 sqm Garfield Terrace site previously marketed as AALTO by Weiya Holdings, before acquiring the adjoining parcel from hotel billionaire Sam Arnaout’s Iris Capital, the developer behind V&amp;A Broadbeach.

First look exclusive: Billionaire Winx breeder’s bold two-tower Surfers Paradise play with 45th-storey skybridge

The Melbourne-based HLA Group is the latest developer to expand into South East Queensland, lodging plans for a unique mixed-use short-term accomodation and apartment building in Taringa, with the building design inspired by the Glasswing Butterfly.

The development application for 10 Morrow Street seeks approval for a total of 232 dwellings, comprising 116 residential apartments and 116 short-stay accommodation units. The build-to-sell residential component is made up of 31 one-bedroom apartments, 67 two-bedroom apartments, 17 three-bedroom apartments, and a single four-bedroom apartment, offering a diverse mix aimed at singles, couples, families, and downsizers.

<img alt="Taringa" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="33913cd4-9839-4456-b325-d35b3f8b4694" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.40.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=sLvc7jUrYzDwqPDZBPrXTosKHDSp.qrt" />

Designed by Ellivo Architects, the tower takes strong inspiration from nature, with the architectural language driven by one of Queensland’s most delicate species. As described in the planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council, Ellivo Architects state the design is “inspired by the elegance of the Glasswing butterfly," and mirrors the graceful sweep of its wings, a form that feels light, fluid, and alive.

“Lush subtropical greenery is throughtfull woven throughout, transforming the building into a sanctuary in the heart of the city.”

The proposal positions the building as more than a conventional residential tower, with Ellivo Architects describing 10 Morrow Street as “an urban oasis that blends short term accomodation with residential living. A destination for rest, relaxation, and renewal.”

<img alt="Taringa" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="84e9a0ff-464e-4973-bffe-5d5a8fe9f087" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.40.32%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dhX9eVgUaQE2TvCzJPhF8N8_hzYSKpyK" />

Formally, the building’s massing and floorplate are directly shaped by its butterfly inspiration. Ellivo explain that, “adopting the wings of the Glasswing Butterfly, the tower's plan is divided into four distinct quadrants, each shaped to mirror the wing's segmented geometry and taking the slender ‘veins’ up the facade of the tower.”

"This approach results in a sculpted tower form with articulated façades and a strong vertical expression."

<img alt="Taringa" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="5947011d-ff6c-4a57-bdc1-9072a472a79c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.40.29%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=nnGqd4WCZM8AOJZY.c3u49BO4LurKRhb" />

The Assessment Report by Human Habitats said the 19-storey tower capitalises on its strategic connectivity and prominence at the entrance of Taringa Village and adjoining the Taringa Station.

"The proposal offers a significant revitalisation of the subject site that integrates architectural excellence, innovation, and sustainable design to directly address long-standing connectivity and safety challenges, housing supply , and diversity together with enhanced streetscape activation and convenient access to major transport corridors."

HLA Group Australia is registered to South Yarra and is currently delivering Adamson No.5, just 15 luxury apartments that start from around $2 million.&nbsp;

The Butterfly Effect: Glasswing butterfly inspires Taringa apartment development

Home Prices

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EXPERT INSIGHT

Australian capital city average dwelling prices rose 2% in February according to CoreLogic and are up 2.6% on a year ago. This is their fastest monthly gain since 2003 and they have now surpassed their September 2017 record high by 0.7%.

Sydney dwelling prices rose a very strong 2.5%, resulting in five months of gains, and are up 2.8% on a year ago. Melbourne prices also rose 2.1%, resulting in four months of gains, but are down -1.3% on a year ago reflecting a -5.6% fall around mid-2020 through the various lockdowns.

Prices in other cities were all up strongly led by Hobart with prices up 2.5% in February and 8.7% through the year, followed by Canberra up 1.9%, Brisbane and Perth both up 1.5%, Adelaide up 0.8% and Darwin up 0.7%. Prices in Hobart, Canberra, Brisbane and Adelaide are all at record highs.

<img alt="" height="794" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/surging_house_prices_oliver.jpg" width="1200">

Regional dwelling prices rose 2.1% in February and 9.4% on a year ago with their relative strength reflecting lower levels of indebtedness and hence less vulnerability to the financial stresses caused by the pandemic driven economic downturn, less exposure to the slump in immigration and increased buyer interest as people seek to relocate from cities as part of a secular trend towards working from home and a greater focus on lifestyle.

Capital city house prices rose 2.3% in February and 3.6% over the last 12 months whereas unit prices lagged with a 1.1% gain in the month and a -0.1% fall on a year ago, with the relative underperformance likely reflecting an ongoing shift in lifestyle preferences towards houses as a result of more working from home and a lifestyle choice and as weak rental conditions made worse by the slump in immigration constrain the inner city unit markets in Sydney and Melbourne. Over the last 12 months unit rents fell -8.0% in Melbourne and -5.3% in Sydney, although there were further signs of stabilisation in February.

The strength in home prices is consistent with the surge in new housing finance commitments over recent months. This rose another 10.5% in January and is now up 44.3% from a year ago. First home buyer finance surged 10.1%mom - and is up a whopping 73% on a year ago - to a new record high although with owner occupier ex first home buyer finance up an even stronger 11.3%, the first home buyer share of new loans slipped from a record 25% to 24.9%. Investor finance is now also surging and rose 9.4%. The ongoing strength in finance commitments points to more solid house price gains in the months ahead although January’s 2% capital city rise may be hard to beat.

Auction clearances are now very strong and sales are running around pre coronavirus levels, although listings are still relatively low. Clearance rates are at levels consistent with 15% or so annual price gains!

What’s driving the surge in home prices?

The combination of reopening unleashing pent up demand, government incentives, the removal of responsible lending obligations, record low mortgage rates, the desire to "escape from the city" and relatively low property listings are all helping to push prices higher with an element of FOMO (or the “fear of missing out” creeping in too. This is after bank payment holidays and Government income support measures averted a sharp fall in prices that would otherwise have followed from the pandemic recession. The combination has more than offset the impact of weak inner city rental markets and the hit to immigration and has brought forward demand from first home buyers and owner occupiers, with investors now starting to jump in too.

Average capital city dwelling prices have now surpassed their September 2017 high, although this masks a wide divergence with: clear record highs in Brisbane, Adelaide, Hobart and Canberra and in average regional home prices; Sydney and Melbourne still down just over 1% from their 2017 highs; and Perth and Darwin remaining well down on their 2014 highs.  

<img alt="" height="806" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/average_prices_record_high_oliver.jpg" width="1200">

Outlook

Australian home prices are likely to rise another 5% to 10% this year and next being boosted by record low mortgage rates, government home buyer incentives and the recovery in the jobs market but the stop to immigration and weak rental markets will likely constrain price gains in inner city areas and units in Melbourne and Sydney. Outer suburbs, houses, smaller cities and regional areas will see relatively stronger gains in 2021.

The phasing down of government incentives and exhaustion of first home buyers will likely see first home buyer demand as a share of housing finance and overall demand peak in the months ahead but they will likely be replaced by rebounding investor demand. Possible increases in 4 year plus fixed rate mortgage rates flowing from the recent surge in bond yields will act as a bit of a dampener but likely only enough to see price growth settle around a 5-10% annual pace.

Shane Oliver is the Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital 
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The strength in home prices is consistent with the surge in new housing finance commitments over recent months

soliver

Housing finance commitments surged another 10.5% to start 2021: Shane Oliver

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EXPERT INSIGHT

The combination of reopening unleashing pent up demand, an avalanche of government incentives (including stamp duty concessions, various state support measures, HomeBuilder and an expansion of the First Home Loan Deposit Scheme), a further easing in lending standards on the way for early this year (with the removal of responsible lending obligations), record low mortgage rates, the desire to "escape from the city" helped along by ongoing bank payment holidays and Government income support measures averted a sharp fall in prices that would otherwise have followed from higher unemployment and underemployment, weak inner city rental markets and the hit to immigration and brought forward demand from first home buyers and owner occupiers. As a result property prices have turned up far earlier than I had been expecting and there appears to be a bit of FOMO (or the “fear of missing out”) creeping into some markets and pushing them higher.

At the current rate of increase average capital city dwelling prices will surpass their September 2017 record high by March, although this masks a wide divergence with: record highs already in Brisbane, Adelaide, Hobart and Canberra and in average regional home prices; Perth and Darwin remaining well down on their 2014 highs; and Sydney and Melbourne prices having been range bound since 2017.  

Outlook

Australian home prices are likely to continue to rise through 2021 being boosted by record low mortgage rates, government home buyer incentives and with the recovery in the economy expected to offset the phasing down of income support measures and bank payment holidays and some incentives. As a result average capital city home prices are expected to rise by around 5% through the year. While first home buyer incentives are likely to be reduced seeing a decline in first home buyer demand later in the year, investor interest is expected to pick up.

However, the outlook is widely divergent across cities, within cities and across units versus houses.

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The downside risks relate to: renewed coronavirus related lockdowns with the latest being in Perth although so far new case numbers seem to be getting kept down and vaccines should help head off this risk entirely later in the year; higher unemployment and underemployment and distressed sales as government income and bank support measures wind down although the risk on this front are rapidly diminishing; falling rents and high vacancy rates in inner city Melbourne and Sydney weighing on investors; a 100,000 per annum reduction in underlying dwelling demand flowing from the hit to immigration; and a pandemic/work from home driven “escape to the suburbs and regions” that is weighing on inner city/unit prices but pushing up outer suburban/house and regional prices.

It remains hard to see that the reversal in net immigration from around 240,000 people per annum to an expected net outflow of people this financial year (of -70,000) and next (of -20,000) won’t have a significant impact. The surge in population growth of around 150,000 people per annum taking it to around 375,000 people per annum due to higher immigration from the middle of the 2000s was the main factor explaining very expensive Australian housing over the last 15 years as the property market became chronically undersupplied. The collapse in population growth which is likely to result in a halving in underlying demand for housing this financial year and next at the same time that governments are intent on supporting housing construction via various initiatives including HomeBuilder is likely to weigh on prices at some point as chronic undersupply gives way to oversupply in some areas. Particularly with rate cuts and incentives pulling demand forward and mortgage rate reductions reaching the end of the road. This is particularly likely to weigh on unit rents and prices along with investor demand in Sydney and Melbourne.

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Inner city Melbourne and Sydney are the most vulnerable to the hit to immigration, but this may not become fully apparent for another six months or so. Outer suburban areas and houses in these cities are likely to continue seeing solid price gains reflecting the “escape from the city” phenomenon against a backdrop of very low mortgage rates. On average Sydney and Melbourne price gains are likely to be modest at around 2 to 3% through 2021.

Other cities and regional areas are likely to perform well reflecting lower levels of debt and less exposure to immigration and as such as likely to see rising average prices with record low mortgage rates dominating. Adelaide and Brisbane are playing catch up after years of underperformance compared to Sydney and Melbourne, Canberra is benefitting from strength in public sector employment and Perth and Darwin are starting to recover after bear markets ever since 2014 helped by the recovery in mining investment in WA. Expect average price gains of close to 10% in Adelaide, Brisbane, Perth, Darwin and regional areas and around 5 to 7% in Canberra and Hobart.

Basically, Sydney and Melbourne lead the longer term cycle and the other cities and regional prices follow. Right now, Brisbane, Adelaide, Hobart, Canberra and average regional dwelling prices are playing catch up after underperforming Sydney and Melbourne into 2017 and Perth and Darwin home prices are finally recovering from a multi-year bear market that went bust with the end of the mining investment boom. The surge in immigration played a big role in the outperformance of Sydney and Melbourne into 2017 and this is now going into reverse.

Outer suburban houses and dwellings in regional centres are likely to perform better than inner city units in most capital cities as a continuing trend to working from home and a greater focus on lifestyle dominates.

SHANE OLIVER is the Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital 
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Regional home prices outpacing the capital cities in 2021: Shane Oliver

<html><body>
The Melbourne apartment market has continued to see price growth at the start of 2021 following a strong run toward the back end of 2020.

The median apartment value was up 0.1 per cent, according to data analytics firm CoreLogic, following from 0.6 per cent gains in December and 0.7 per cent gains in November.

The gain sees the median apartment value hit $577,206. Apartment investors were given a boost over January, with unit rents holding firm having declined 7.8 per cent over the past year.

Urban has taken a look at five apartments blocks to secure under or around the median apartment value.

<h2>1. Collins &amp; Bates, Chadstone</h2>

Price: Two bedroom apartments starting from $520,000.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=3950]

In the 98 residence Collins &amp; Bates, you can secure a two bedroom apartment for well below Melbourne's median apartment value. Prices for two beds start from $520,000, with one bed apartments from $420,000. All three bedroom residences, which started from $1 million, are sold out.

Aultun Property Group are the developers behind Collins &amp; Bates. They had Point Architects design the residences and had C&amp;C Interiors handle the interiors which feature Caesar stone bench tops, porcelain splashbacks, Bosch appliances, wool carpets and engineered oak timber flooring.

<h2>2. Hurstmon, Malvern East</h2>

Price: One bedroom apartments starting from $449,000.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4807]

Landream's Hurstmon development, set for completion in early 2022, has one bedroom apartments available from as low as $449,000. Their two bedroom apartments are a step up, starting from $795,000.

Designed by Telha Clarke, the 39 residence development is surrounded by stately trees and lush, established gardens.

<h2>3. Verre, Preston</h2>

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7275]

Wolf&amp;Lamb's Verre development, set for completion in early 2022, has one, two and three bedroom residences on offer with prices ranging from $385,000 to $815,000.

The 57 residence complex has been designed by Chamberlain Architects.

<h2>4. Melbourne Grand, Melbourne</h2>

Price: Two bedroom apartments starting from $569,000.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=3490]

Winner of the HIA Victorian apartment complex of the year for 2020, the Melbourne Grand has its two bedroom apartments starting from $569,000, just below Melbourne's median apartment price.

The 652 unit project, developed by Central Equity, offers a range of one, two and three bedroom apartments priced from $489,000.

<h2>5. Volaire, West Melbourne</h2>

Price: Two bedroom apartments starting from $599,000.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=2407]

Just above Melbourne's median price are two bedroom apartments in the 159 apartment development Volaire. The CBUS Property-developed project spanning 10 levels has been designed by Hayball to pay homage to the site's industrial heritage with its architectural façade.

The triangular building features cantilevered balconies and occupies its own island site with a ground floor restaurant.

 
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Apartment investors were given a boost over January, with unit rents holding firm having declined 7.8 per cent over the past year.

Melbourne apartment median value up 0.1% in January: What you can buy for the new median 

<html><body>
<h2>EXPERT INSIGHT</h2>

The first indicators for 2021 – home prices and manufacturing activity – are exhibiting signs of economic strength, rather than weakness.

Home prices are rising across the country. In fact home prices only fell in two of the 88 regions in the past month. And over the past year all but 12 regions posted gains in home prices. The icing on the cake: data shows that in 39 of the 88 regions, home prices were at record highs at the end of 2020.

The outback regions of South Australia and the Northern Territory as well as the mid to far north coast regions of NSW were amongst those posting the strongest home price gains in December. The Sydney Eastern Suburbs (down 0.1 per cent) and Far West and Orana region of NSW (-0.4 per cent) were the only two regions to record falls in home prices in December.

Regional home prices continue to outpace capital cities and house prices are out-pacing apartment prices. Both reflect Covid-19 effects, especially the new reality that work can be done anywhere and at any time.

The manufacturing sector is expanding solidly. In fact many companies reported that “backlogs of work had risen simply due to a short-term inability to expand production capacity sufficiently to meet the recent surge in demand.” And further, “efforts to boost capacity were reflected in manufacturers taking on extra staff at a rate not seen for just over two years.”   

What do the figures show?  Home prices – December 2020

The CoreLogic Home Value Index of national home prices rose by 1.0 per cent in December to be 3.0 per cent higher over the year. 

In capital cities, prices rose by 0.9 per cent to be up 2.0 per cent over the year. House prices climbed 1.1 per cent, but apartment prices rose by just 0.2 per cent. House prices were up 2.6 per cent on a year ago and prices of apartments increased by 0.2 per cent.

In regional areas, home prices jumped 1.6 per cent with house prices up 1.7 per cent and apartment prices up by 1.1 per cent. Regional home prices were up 6.9 per cent on the year with houses lifting 7.1 per cent and apartments up 5.9 per cent.  

The average Australian capital city house price (median price) in December was $696,413 and the average unit price was $574,388.

Home prices were higher in all eight capital cities in December: Sydney (+0.7 per cent); Melbourne (+1.0 per cent); Brisbane (+1.1 per cent); Adelaide (+1.1 per cent); Perth (+1.1 per cent); Hobart (+0.7 per cent); Darwin (+2.3 per cent); Canberra (+0.6 per cent).

Home prices were higher than a year ago in seven of the eight capital cities in December: Sydney (+2.7 per cent); Melbourne (-1.3 per cent); Brisbane (+3.6 per cent); Adelaide (+5.9 per cent); Perth (+2.0 per cent); Hobart (+7.7 per cent); Darwin (+11.9 per cent); Canberra (+8.5 per cent).

Total returns on national dwellings rose by 6.6 per cent in the year to December with houses up 7.1 per cent and units up by 5.0 per cent on a year earlier. In contrast, the S&amp;P/ASX All Ordinaries Accumulation Index rose by 3.6 per cent over the year to December. 

What are the implications for investors?

Higher home prices boost household wealth and also serve to boost borrowing capacity. As such the lift in home prices is positive for consumer durables including demand for cars.

CoreLogic reports that annual home sales were around 8 per cent higher over 2020. CoreLogic notes: “More home sales implies more work for a range of industries including real estate professionals, removalists, conveyancers, financiers and building inspectors along with more spending on household goods such as home furnishings, white goods and appliances.”

The strength in manufacturing is positive for employment and related sectors such as retailing. The increases in input prices and selling prices need to be watched though.

Risks to the housing market – prices, sales and building – include policy mistakes, the scaledown of JobKeeper and JobSeeker, new waves of virus infection and the length of time that foreign borders stay closed.

CRAIG JAMES is the Chief Economist at CommSec
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Regional home prices continue to outpace capital cities and house prices are out-pacing apartment prices

cjames

Home prices hit record highs across half of Australia despite COVID-19: Craig James

<html><body>
Although values have been increasing for almost 4.5 years, homes continue to sell quite rapidly with a relatively low level of discounting occurring from vendors.
The vendor discount and time on market metrics are important measures of current market conditions. The vendor discounting metric looks at properties selling for less than their original list price and looks at the percentage difference from initial list price to ultimate sale price. 
The time on market metric shows the average number of days between when a property is first listed and when it ultimately sells. It’s important to note that each of these measures is based on private treaty sales and therefore excludes auctions.
In September 2016, the average days on market across the combined capital cities was recorded at 39 days. At the same time a year earlier the average days on market was a slightly lower 36 days. 
<div>
<h3>Average days on market, combined capital cities</h3>
<a href="/images/2016/11/23/2016-11-17--pp-image1.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/11/23/2016-11-17--pp-image1.png" alt="">
The second chart highlights the average days on market figure across each of the capital cities for each of the past 8 years in September. Over recent years homes have been selling much quicker in Sydney and Melbourne than they have across the other capital cities. Homes in Hobart and Canberra have seen fairly large falls in days on market over the past year which aligns with accelerating value growth. In Perth and Darwin homes have seen a large rise in the average days on market as selling conditions have become tougher and values have declined.
<h3>Average days on market, individual capital cities as at September </h3>
<a href="/images/2016/11/23/2016-11-17--image2.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/11/23/2016-11-17--image2.png" alt="">
In September 2016, the typical home which sold at a discount from its original listing price was discounted by -5.7 percent across the combined capital cities. In comparison, at the same time a year earlier the typical level of discounting was recorded at -6.0 percent. The lower level of discounting is reflective of more demand and fewer homes for sale but is also likely to reflect more realistic initial listing prices from vendors.
<h3>Average vendor discount, combined capital cities</h3>
<a href="/images/2016/11/23/2016-11-17--pp-image3.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/11/23/2016-11-17--pp-image3.png" alt="">
The final chart shows the discounting levels for each capital city in September over each of the past 8 years. Once again Sydney and Melbourne, along with Canberra, have been seeing low levels of discounting by vendors over recent years. In Sydney and Melbourne in particular this is indicative of strong housing demand which has led to many homes selling in excess of their initial list price. Despite only moderate growth in values over recent years Canberra has consistently recorded low levels of discounting. In Perth and Darwin as the housing market has wakened over recent years discounting levels have increased significantly.
<h3>Average vendor discount, individual capital cities as at September</h3>
<a href="/images/2016/11/23/2016-11-17--image4.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/11/23/2016-11-17--image4.png" alt="">
After combined capital city home values have been increasing for almost four and a half years (mainly in Sydney and Melbourne) the level of discounting and time on market remains extremely low. This is being driven by ongoing strong housing demand coupled with relatively low stock levels.  While these conditions persist it is difficult to see how home values in Sydney and Melbourne in particular, won’t continue to increase.
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.
</div>
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ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Homes are selling much quicker in Sydney and Melbourne: Cameron Kusher

<html><body>
There are four indicators to focus on to determine home price trends over the next six months, according to CBA analysis. 
Housing finance demand, auction clearance rates, foreign residential demand and consumer sentiment about price expectations will be key considerations across the market as CBA Global Markets Research forecasts prices are likely to continue to deflate from record highs.
“The evidence suggests that dwelling prices will continue to deflate in the very near term,” said CBA Senior Economist Gareth Aird.
“There will be significant variations between capital cities and indeed suburbs within the same cities, but the broader trend should be one of continuing mild price declines.”
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/15/1.jpg" alt="">
Source: Commbank Research
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/15/2.jpg" alt="">
Source: Commbank Research
What about interest rates?
As long as the downturn in the housing market remains divorced from the broader economy, which continues to perform relatively well, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will continue to signal that that cash rate is “more likely to go up than down”, Aird said.
Changes in mortgage rates impact the demand for credit, which is captured in the flow of new lending.
New lending is driven by the supply and demand for credit, Aird explained, and the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data indicated the flow of housing credit continues to fall and the pace of the decline has accelerated.
“Credit to investors has been trending down for the past one-and-a-half years, but it’s the shift downwards in lending to owner-occupiers that’s behind the recent acceleration,” he said.
Tighter lending standards have played a part, but they “are not the primary driver of the acceleration in the downward trend of housing finance”.
“Rather, the demand for credit has declined because momentum in the market has come off and household expectations of property price appreciation have declined.”
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/15/3.jpg" alt="">
Source: Commbank Research
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/15/8.jpg" alt="">
Source: Commbank Research 
Auction clearance rates
After strong gains in home sale prices in many parts of Australia over the past five years, the country’s auction clearance rate has been on a downward trend throughout 2018, dipping recently to between 40-45%.
“The latest auction clearance rates imply that dwelling prices in Sydney and Melbourne will weaken further over the very near term,” Aird said.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/15/5.jpg" alt="">
 
Source: Commbank Research
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/15/4.jpg" alt="">
Source: Commbank Research
Foreign demand
Foreign investment in Australian property has waned over the past two years, after a lift in state government-levied stamp duty to foreign investors and tighter capital controls out of China.
“The decline in foreign investor demand is consistent with a further easing in dwelling prices over the near term,” Aird said, and currently there’s “no evidence to suggest a rebound in foreign investor demand”.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/15/6.jpg" alt="">
Source: Commbank Research
Great expectations
Consumer sentiment surveys have proved to be a “useful near-term indicator of the annual change in dwelling prices”.
However, Aird explained the self-fulfilling aspect: “If households expect prices to weaken, then demand for credit will fall and prices will correct lower. The reverse is also true when households expect price growth to accelerate.”
Currently, house price expectation indicators point to dwelling prices continuing to deflate over the near term, he said.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/15/7.jpg" alt="">
Source: Commbank Research
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/15/9.jpg" alt="">
Source: Commbank Research
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/15/10.jpg" alt="">
Source: Commbank Research
</body></html>

j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

The top four indicators driving home prices across Australia: CBA

<html><body>
Perth’s property gloom may be nearing its end, with research group BIS Oxford Economics forecasting that home prices have bottomed out in WA’s capital city and will start to rise from 2018.
BIS modelling shows price of houses in Perth won’t change in 2017-18, but is expected to gain 3 per cent from 2018-20, the Perth Now reported.
The median house price in Perth is $540,000. 
If BIS forecasts are accurate, this would mean an increase at least $15,000 over the next three years.
<div>
CoreLogic's monthly hedonic index showed Perth home values rose 1.4 percent in June, although they were still down 1.7 percent year on year.
The median dwelling price was $484,000.
BIS analyst Angie Zigomanis said the excess housing supply was approaching a peak.
</div>
Perth’s median unit price will drop one per cent over the three years to $400,000, it said.
“Our view is that Perth’s median house price has, or will shortly, bottom out,” BIS analyst Angie Zigomanis said.
“Having said that, any recovery will still be very slow and by 2020, we are only expecting a 3 per cent rise from this low, which won’t even keep up with inflation.” 
</body></html>

jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Perth house prices likely to rise from 2018: BIS 

<html><body>
The rise in home prices is expected to moderate in 2017, especially Sydney and Melbourne, where prices will take a breather from their double-digit growth, according to a forecast by leading economists in the 2017 BusinessDay Scope survey. 
The CoreLogic measure for home price increase will grow by just 4.9 per cent in Sydney, while for Melbourne it will be 4.3 per cent, a far cry from the 15.5 per cent growth for Sydney and 13.7 per cent for Melbourne in 2016. 
The BusinessDay survey carried by The Sydney Morning Herald is made up of forecasts from 27 leading economists. Over time its average predictions have proved to be more accurate than those of any of its individual members.
Some forecasters expect home prices to fall — Nicki Hutley (Urbis Consulting), Stephen Koukoulas (Market Economics) and author, Professor Steve Keen -- while two expect no growth (Jakob Madsen of Monash University and Richard Robinson from the property specialist BIS Shrapnel), the report said.
The highest forecasts are for further growth of 12 percent -- Julie Toth of Australian Industry Group and Renee Fry-McKibbin of Australian National University -- for Sydney and Mardi Dungey (University of Tasmania) for Melbourne.
The range of housing investment forecasts is also wide, with the highest being a growth of 11 per cent (Neville Norman of the University of Melbourne) while the lowest is a slide of 5.5 pe cent (from the Housing Industry Association).  The average forecast is a low 1.9 percent growth. 
The general consensus also says the Reserve Bank won’t adjust interest rates at its first meeting for the year on Tuesday and has very little pressure to adjust them at any time during the year. 
Below is the results of the survey given to the economists.
<table style="width: 472px;" border="1" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Name
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
Company
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
Sydney home prices year to Dec (%)
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
Melbourne home prices year to Dec (%)
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Stephen Anthony
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
Industry Super
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
5.4
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
7.1
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Sally Auld
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
JP Morgan
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
-
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
-
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
David Bassanese
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
BetaShares
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
5
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
5
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Paul Bloxham
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
HSBC
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
5
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
3
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Michale Blythe
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
Commonwealth Bank
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
7
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
5
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Paul Dales
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
Capital Economics
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
8
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
10
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Besa Deda
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
Bank of Melbourne
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
6
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
4
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Bill Evans
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
Westpac
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
-
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
-
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Shane Oliver
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
AMP Capital
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
4
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
3
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Sun-Lin Ong
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
RBC Capital Markets
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
-
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
-
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Riki Polygenis
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
National Australia Bank
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
3.9
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
4.8
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Richard Yetsenga
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
ANZ Bank
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
-
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
-
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Janine Dixon
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
Victoria University
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
-
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
-
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Mardi Dungey
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
University of Tasmania
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
10
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
12
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Saul Eslake
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
University of Tasmania
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
 
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
-
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Renee Fry-McKibbin
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
Australian National University
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
12
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
10
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Steve Keen
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
Kingston University, London
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
0
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
-4
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Guay Lim
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
Melbourne Institute
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
6
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
4.5
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Jakob Madsen
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
Monash University
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
0
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
0
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Bill Mitchell
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
University of Newcastle
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
8
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
8
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Neville Norman
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
University of Melbourne
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
9
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
11
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Nicki Hutley
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
Urbis Consulting
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
-3
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
-5
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Stephen Koukoulas
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
Market Economics
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
-5
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
-6
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Richard Robinson
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
BIS Shrapnel
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
0
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
0
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Shane Garrett
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
Housing Industry Association
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
5
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
4.5
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Margaret McKenzie
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
ACTU
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
-
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
-
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Julie Toth
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
Australian Industry Group
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
12
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
10
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="2" valign="top" width="279">
Low
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
-5
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
-6
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="2" valign="top" width="279">
High
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
12
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
12
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AVERAGE
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4.9
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4.3
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Home price growth to take a breather in 2017, says survey of economists

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<div class="column">GUEST OBSERVER</div>
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<div class="column">The CoreLogic Home Value Index of capital city home prices rose by 1.0 per cent in September to stand 7.1 per cent higher over the year. Prices rose in all capital cities except Perth and Darwin. But regional prices were only up 1.4 per cent in the year to August (latest data).</div>
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<div class="column">Petrol: Today the national average wholesale (terminal gate) unleaded petrol price stands at 106.8 cents a litre, down 0.5 cents a litre over the week after falling by 0.9 cents in the previous week. Capital cities: MotorMouth records the following retail prices for capital cities today: Sydney 122.6c; Melbourne 125.7c; Brisbane 107.5c; Adelaide 116.1c; Perth 103.5c; Canberra 118.7c; Darwin 109.8c; Hobart 121.7
Manufacturing: The Performance of Manufacturing index rose by 2.9 points to 49.8 in September. A reading below 50.0 indicates that the sector is contracting. 
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<div class="column">It is clear that there is no single housing market. And for that matter, there is no single market for petrol. Housing prices are responding to the different population or demand influences as well as the different stages of the building cycle. Demand for homes in Sydney and Melbourne is supported by solid population growth while supply hasn’t caught up. Not yet, anyway – the process is underway. In contrast the increased supply of new homes in Perth is happening at a time of softening population growth. There have always been different cycles across the country and this time is no different.</div>
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<div class="column">Looking at the simple national dwelling price (capital cities and regions) on a three-month rolling average basis, home prices are up just 1 per cent over the past year. Looking over a 25-year period, annual price growth has averaged around 6 per cent. Over the last five years, annual growth was nearer to 3 percent.</div>
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<div class="column">The jury is still out on petrol prices. OPEC oil producers are seeking to limit production and support prices. But many doubt that the moves will be effective given significant global oil supplies and the lack of agreement to stem output outside of the OPEC grouping.</div>
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<div class="column">Manufacturers are being influenced by a range of positive and negative forces at present. The higher Aussie dollar isn’t helping producers but they are benefitting from the stronger demand now that Brexit and the election are out of the way.</div>
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<div class="column">What do the figures show?</div>
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<div class="column">Home prices</div>
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<div class="column">The CoreLogic Home Value Index of capital city home prices rose by 1.0 per cent in September and was up 7.1 per cent over the year.
In regional Australia, house prices fell 0.1 per cent in August and were just 1.4 per cent higher than a year ago.  (regional prices cover just houses and data is up to the end of August).  
In capital cities, house prices rose by 1.0 per cent in September while apartment prices rose by 1.2 per cent. House prices were up 7.3 per cent on a year ago and apartments were up by 6.1 per cent.  
 The average Australian capital city house price (median price based on settled sales over quarter) was $600,000 and the average unit price was $510,000.
 Dwelling prices rose in six of the eight capital cities in September: Canberra (up 2.4 per cent); Melbourne (up 2.3 per cent); Adelaide (up 2.1 per cent), Sydney (up 0.8 per cent); Brisbane and Hobart (both up 0.1 per cent). Prices fell most in Perth (down 2.5 per cent) followed by Darwin (down 2.2 per cent).  
 Home prices were higher than a year ago in six of the eight capital cities. Prices rose most in Sydney (up 10.2 per cent); followed by Melbourne and Canberra (both up 9.0 per cent); Hobart (up 8.7 per cent); Adelaide (up 6.5 per cent); and Brisbane (up 3.0 per cent). Prices fell in Darwin (down 6.0 per cent) and Perth (down by 7.0 per cent).  
Total returns on capital city dwellings in the year to September rose by 10.9 per cent with houses up 10.9 per cent on a year earlier and units up 10.6 per cent.  
Petrol prices
Today the national average wholesale (terminal gate) unleaded petrol price stands at 106.8 cents a litre, down 0.5 cents a litre over the week after falling by 0.9 cents in the previous week. The terminal gate diesel price stands at 104.2 cents a litre, up by 0.3 cents a litre after falling by 1.1 cents a litre over the previous week.  
Last week the key Singapore gasoline price rose by US$1.60 or 2.7 per cent to US$60.20 a barrel. In Australian dollar terms the Singapore gasoline price rose by $2.17 a barrel or 2.8 per cent to a 16-week high of $78.90 a barrel or 49.62 cents a litre.  
MotorMouth records the following retail prices for capital cities today: Sydney 122.6c; Melbourne 125.7c; Brisbane 107.5c; Adelaide 116.1c; Perth 103.5c; Canberra 118.7c; Darwin 109.8c; Hobart 121.7c.  
In the September quarter Australian petrol prices fell by between 2-3 per cent after lifting 5.9 per cent in the June quarter. As such, lower petrol prices are keeping downward pressure on the overall inflation rate.  
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Performance of Manufacturing.
The Performance of Manufacturing index rose by 2.9 points to 49.8 in August. A reading below 50.0 indicates that the sector is contracting. Before August the index had been above 50 for 13 months – the longest period of expansion since September 2006.  
AIG notes “Three of the seven activity sub-indexes in the Australian PMI® expanded in September after contracting in August. Production (52.6 points), deliveries (56.4 points) and sales (51.4 points) expanded and exports stabilised (50.0 points). Employment (46.7 points) and stocks (44.3 points) contracted again. New orders slipped into contraction (48.3 points).”  
“Comments from manufacturers in September indicate a steady improvement in demand and exports in some sectors after last month’s dip. Variability in the exchange rate and persisting oversupply in some markets is curbing activity. Margin pressures appear to be intensifying due to ongoing high input costs (particularly for imported inputs and energy). Lower government orders, the sharp fall-off in mining construction work and the completion of major infrastructure projects (with no imminent replacement projects in the pipeline) and wet weather in some locations has also dampened activity.”  
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What is the importance of the economic data? 
Weekly figures on petrol prices are compiled by ORIMA Research on behalf of the Australian Institute of Petroleum (AIP). National average retail prices are calculated as the weighted average of each State/Territory's metropolitan and non-metropolitan retail petrol prices, with the weights based on the number of registered petrol vehicles in each of these regions. AIP data for retail petrol prices is based on available market data supplied by MotorMouth. </div>
<div class="column">The CoreLogic Hedonic Australian Home Value Index is based on Australia’s biggest property database. Unlike the ABS Index, which excludes terraces, semi-detached homes and apartments, the CoreLogic Hedonic Index includes all properties. Home prices are an important driver of wealth and spending. The Australian Industry Group compiles the Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) each month. The Australian PMI is the Australian equivalent of the US ISM manufacturing gauge. The PMI is one of the timeliest economic indicators released in Australia. The PMI is useful not just in showing how the manufacturing sector is performing but in providing some sense about where it is heading. The key ‘forward looking’ components are orders and employment.
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
Petrol prices are likely to remain volatile, reflecting discounting cycles and the push and pull of global factors. But overall, prices are likely to remain affordable compared with previous years. As such, the price of petrol is not having a big impact on consumer spending – more of a benign influence.</div>
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<div class="column">There is a fair debate on the accuracy of home price data. The bottom line is that prices are moving at different speeds across the country depending on the usual supply-demand influences. Recent trends aren’t a cause for concern. Using averages of settled sales across the entire country, prices are barely growing in annual terms.</div>
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<div class="column">Latest data shows that the Australian economy remains in good shape. </div>
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<div class="column">Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>.</div>
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