Repeat buyers are one of the strongest measures of confidence in any apartment development.

At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/era-newcastle-west-124-126-bull-street-newcastle-west-nsw-2302">ERA</a> in Newcastle West, some purchasers are returning to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gwh">GWH</a> after living at the developer's One Apartments. Their decision to purchase again was driven by the quality of life they found after moving into their first GWH home.

Keith Wilton had spent years living in a house in East Maitland before deciding it was time for a change. Apartment living had always been on his radar, but he was selective about what he wanted.

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/FH_1EzB-1vs?si=XScVlP1ERsTDJoME" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>

"I had some boxes I wanted to tick," he says.

Keith points to the open-plan design, generous outdoor areas and considered inclusions as key reasons One Apartments worked for him.

“One of those things was a nice indoor open plan area, but also I wanted a nice outdoor open area that I could entertain on in summer or Christmases or birthdays,” he says.

He also found value in the smaller details, from integrated appliances to shared resident spaces including the pool, cinema and rooftop areas.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356818]

After comparing several developments, he chose One Apartments because of GWH's longstanding local reputation and his own experience working with the developer on a commercial project more than a decade earlier.

"I knew that they were local, that the quality of the build was going to be up there. I'd looked at other apartment complexes around and close by, and I just knew that here was a better decision location wise."

Today, Keith says the move has completely changed how he experiences Newcastle.

"I enjoy living in this location because it's more of a lifestyle change. That Newcastle city living where you can walk to restaurants and bars and even beaches and parks and even shopping across the road."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356828]

Beyond the location, he says it's the sense of community that has surprised him most.

"Everyone loves living here because they chose to live here, but everyone looks out for each other. It's a real great community feel here."

For Aimee and Lyle Goodman, the journey started almost by chance.

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/tsioMLcnjas?si=zq-ys3JuWpfa5hFv" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>

The couple happened to be having coffee in Newcastle when they noticed the site where One Apartments was about to begin construction.

"We were aware GWH was planning a development," Aimee says. "We made one phone call and things moved pretty quickly after that."

As busy business owners, they initially thought apartment living would simply reduce the maintenance that came with larger homes. Instead, it fundamentally changed how they spent time together.

"We actually catch up more as a family now," Aimee says.

"We've had homes with big yards and lots of space, but everyone ended up in different rooms. Here we'll have dinner together, the kids can play, and we spend far more quality time together."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356829]

Lyle says their confidence came from GWH's reputation within Newcastle's building industry.

"I know people who've worked across different apartment projects, and whenever GWH came up the feedback was always the same. They're rock solid. They're quality."

That confidence only grew throughout the buying process.

"One of the things that really impressed us with GWH was the whole process, was the communication," Lyle says. "It was consistent, it was regular, there was no problem if we had some weird questions, there was no problems in getting answers."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351104]

Aimee says one moment stood out.

"The project actually finished on time. We realised we needed to hurry up and sell our house because everything was happening exactly when they said it would."

The positive experience at One Apartments ultimately gave all three buyers the confidence to purchase again with GWH, this time at ERA.

Their confidence reflects what many buyers are seeking in today's apartment market. Location remains important, but so too does certainty around delivery, quality and long-term liveability.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356822]

ERA builds on those foundations with 280 one, two and three-bedroom apartments across two landmark towers in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/newcastle-west-nsw-2302">Newcastle West</a>.&nbsp;

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fk-australia">Fender Katsalidis</a>, the project will include more than 2,000 square metres of resident amenities, including a resort-style pool, gym, sauna, private cinema and rooftop entertaining spaces overlooking the harbour and coastline.&nbsp;

The development is also within walking distance of the Newcastle Interchange, Honeysuckle, Darby Street, the harbour foreshore, restaurants, retail and the city’s beaches, continuing the walkable lifestyle that existing GWH buyers say has transformed how they live.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356826]

For Keith, the appeal remains straightforward.

"You feel at home even before you've moved into your home."

For Aimee, the change is measured in time.

“I just felt like I had more time,” she says.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351102]

Construction at ERA is now underway, with more than half of the residences already sold and limited two and three-bedroom apartments remaining in the East Tower release. Priced from $980,000 for two-bedroom residences and $1.46 million for three-bedroom residences, buyers can secure an apartment with a 10 per cent deposit, with premium homes offering ocean views from Level 8 and harbour views from Level 10.

ERA is also backed by Resilience Insurance's 10-year Latent Defects Insurance policy, providing protection against structural or waterproofing defects for 10 years after completion. The project is anticipated to be completed in early 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135096]

Joel Robinson

From ONE to ERA: Why buyers are choosing GWH again in Newcastle West

Virgate Property Group is preparing to commence construction of Verdé, its new apartment development in Melbourne's Arts Precinct at Southbank, following a strong run of sales that has seen more than half of the project's 173 apartments secured.

Verdé has attracted a broad mix of first home buyers, owner-occupiers upgrading from nearby inner-city suburbs and investors, with younger owner-occupier couples aged between 28 and 45 accounting for the strongest enquiry. Many are already living in Southbank, South Melbourne, Albert Park, Port Melbourne, South Yarra and the CBD.

"Verdé is located in one of the most desirable pockets of southern Melbourne," Blair Property Group Director Darren Blair, who is managing sales at Verdé, said.

"It's within walking distance of the Arts Centre, Royal Botanic Gardens, Albert Park Lake, and Southbank's restaurants and retail. It's a great lifestyle location with strong amenity and liveability, which made it a very attractive choice for the project."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372549]

Virgate was already familiar with the precinct, having previously delivered the successful Domain House development in neighbouring South Melbourne. That experience gave the developer confidence to acquire the Coventry Street site and continue expanding its presence in Melbourne's inner south.

"We had been keeping an eye on the site and the broader precinct for a few months before deciding to move forward with the acquisition," Virgate said.

The project was ultimately secured in 2020 following feasibility studies, planning assessments and due diligence, with the brief centred on delivering "a high-quality, considered design that feels both refined and fit for purpose."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=314259]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bruce-henderson-architects">Bruce Henderson Architects</a>, Verdé comprises 173 one, two and three-bedroom apartments priced from $599,000. The architecture is distinguished by a faceted glass façade that responds to both the site's outlook and Melbourne's changing light conditions.

According to Bruce Henderson Architects, the coloured glazing gives the building a distinctive identity while also providing privacy and solar shading, with residences oriented to capture views across the bay, city skyline and surrounding parklands.

Inside, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/designoffice">DesignOffice</a> has created interiors focused on natural light, efficient planning and enduring materials. Apartments feature engineered oak flooring, natural stone benchtops, floor-to-ceiling glazing and SMEG appliances, while a restrained material palette aims to complement the expansive outlooks rather than compete with them.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372550]

Resident amenity has also been designed around everyday functionality rather than occasional use. Facilities include a concierge-serviced lobby, residents' lounge with fireplace, library and co-working space, gym, terrace garden with barbecue facilities, ground-floor café, and package delivery management.

The project's location continues to be one of its strongest drawcards. Positioned on Coventry Street, Verdé sits within walking distance of the National Gallery of Victoria, Arts Centre Melbourne, Royal Botanic Gardens and Albert Park Lake, while Southbank's dining precinct, Sturt Street trams and the new ANZAC Station are all nearby. The surrounding education catchment also includes Melbourne Grammar, Melbourne Girls Grammar, Mac.Robertson Girls' High School and several major university campuses.

The sales team says buyers have responded particularly well to the combination of location, design quality and long-term liveability.

"They're responding really positively to the quality of the design, premium resident amenities and the uninterrupted views. Many also appreciate the location and how connected it is to everything they need."

The ability to secure stamp duty savings before completion has also been a key factor for purchasers, alongside the opportunity to personalise finishes ahead of settlement.

With construction set to commence soon and more than half the apartments already sold, Verdé enters its next phase as one of the Arts Precinct's more established apartment developments, offering remaining buyers an opportunity to secure a residence before construction advances further. Expected completion is scheduled for late 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=4661]

Virgate's Verdé Southbank moves toward construction as sales fly past halfway stage

Downsizer-focused apartment development Kooyongkoot in Hawthorn has been recognised at the 2026 Better Future Melbourne Design Awards, taking home Gold and Silver awards in two categories.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/kooyongkoot-hawthorn-1-kooyongkoot-road-hawthorn-vic-3122">Kooyongkoot</a>, currently being delivered by developer PQD and designed by Cera Stribley, received Gold in the Interior Design – Proposed category and Silver in the Architecture – Proposed category.

The dual recognition reflects the design approach behind the boutique development on prestigious Kooyongkoot Road, where the focus has been on creating homes for downsizers seeking the space, quality and functionality of a detached house within a low-rise apartment building.

Rather than maximising apartment numbers, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/pqd">PQD</a> and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a> limited the development to just 18 residences, allowing for larger floorplans, greater privacy, generous landscaping and expansive communal spaces.&nbsp;The majority of the apartments also benefit from corner aspects, allowing for dual sources of natural light.

Now around 70 per cent complete and on track for completion in November 2026, Kooyongkoot will comprise a mix of garden residences, ter​race apartments, sub-penthouses, and is crowned by two half-floor penthouses with direct lift access and private rooftop terraces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355297]

The Silver Award for Architecture recognised the way the building responds to its prominent corner position at the ent​rance to Hawthorn's Scotch Hill precinct, one of Melbourne's most established residential neighbourhoods.

Rather than competing with the grand homes that line Kooyongkoot Road, the architectural approach focused on restraint and longevity, using curved brickwork, generous landscaping and carefully considered proportions to integrate with the existing streetscape.

"The form feels fluid and timeless, as though shaped by the landscape itself – architecture that belongs, rather than competes," said Chris Stribley, Co-Founder and Managing Principal of Cera Stribley.

The judging submission also highlighted practical innovations throughout the building, including lift cores servicing only nine homes each, a central landscaped lightcourt designed to bring daylight and ventilation into the building, and fully enclosed private storage rooms with lighting, power and shelving to better accommodate residents transitioning from larger family homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355293]

The Gold Award for Interior Design recognised the project's focus on long-term liveability rather than display-home aesthetics.

According to the awards submission, the interiors were designed from the inside out, prioritising how homes would function over decades of daily use through generous proportions, practical storage, durable natural materials and flexible layouts.

The specification includes natural stone throughout, upgraded acoustic glazing, V-ZUG appliances and fully enclosed storage rooms, alongside an amenity offering focused on wellness, entertainment and everyday convenience.&nbsp;

Residents will have access to a gym and yoga studio, a wellness centre featuring traditional and infrared saunas, a cold therapy shower and treatment room, as well as a residents' lounge and golf simulator/cinema room for entertainment.&nbsp;Kooyongkoot has also considered the everyday convenience of its residents by offering a private carwash and pet wash facilities on site as well as dedicated parcel lockers and oversized fully enclosed storage rooms.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355303]

The project's attention to detail has already resonated with buyers. Earlier this year, Kooyongkoot recorded one of Boroondara's highest apartment sales when an $8 million penthouse was purchased by a Melbourne CEO downsizing from a nearby family home.

"Every detail feels deliberate, from the overall design down to the smallest touches," the purchaser said.

"The level of quality and refinement is exceptional, but what really sold it was how liveable it felt... It felt like a place where everything had been considered, not just a luxury building."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355304]

Sustainability also formed a key part of both award submissions. Kooyongkoot is targeting a minimum 7.5-star NatHERS rating across all residences, supported by passive design principles, high-performance glazing, EV charging infrastructure, water reuse systems and a wellness model focused on lower-energy dry facilities rather than pools and large wet areas.

Located within walking distance of Scotch College, Methodist Ladies' College, Koo​yong Lawn Tennis Club, Aubur​n Village and Camberwell Junction, Kooyongkoot continues to target owner-occupiers looking to remain in Melbourne's inner east without compromising on space or quality. A limited selection of two, three and four-bedroom residences remains available, with prices starting from $1.9 million.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=102717]

Kooyongkoot wins Gold and Silver at Better Future Melbourne Design Awards

New apartment supply has become increasingly constrained across <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/parramatta-nsw-2150">Parramatta</a> in recent years, with fewer projects progressing through to completion as development conditions have become more challenging.

It makes <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/novm">NOVM</a>'s 2021-completed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/the-lennox-parramatta-12-phillip-street-parramatta-nsw-2150">The Lennox</a> one of the most recently completed residential towers on the Parramatta River, and among the newest apartment developments in Sydney's second CBD.

With the project largely completed before the sharp escalation in construction costs and inflation following the pandemic, The Lennox is now offering pricing that would be difficult to replicate in a comparable new development in Parramatta today, or across much of Western Sydney.

The majority of the 413 apartments at The Lennox sold before and shortly after completion. A limited release of the remaining apartments has recently been brought to market by capital partner <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/equitifund-group">Equitifund</a>, with entry-level pricing from $700,000 and two-bedroom apartments available from under $1 million.

Rising above the Parramatta River at 12 Phillip Street, The Lennox comprises one, two, three and four-bedroom apartments, appealing to first home buyers, young professionals, families, downsizers and interstate investors seeking a completed apartment in one of Australia's fastest-growing economic centres.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=372394]

Rather than positioning Parramatta as an alternative to Sydney's CBD, Equitifund believes the city has reached a point where it stands on its own merits.

"Parramatta is no longer simply an alternative to Sydney CBD, it's becoming a destination in its own right," Equitifund Executive Chairman Greg Huxley said.

"The Lennox captures that evolution with a level of quality and amenity that's difficult to match at its price point."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=953]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/marchese-partners">Marchese Partners</a>, the tower responds directly to its riverfront setting through expansive glazing and open-plan layouts that maximise views across the Parramatta River and city skyline. Interiors feature engineered timber flooring, stone benchtops, stainless steel appliances and floor-to-ceiling glazing, while generous balconies extend the living spaces outdoors.

Marchese Partners says the project was conceived to balance high-quality apartment living with practical, long-term functionality, pairing larger, efficient floorplans with amenities more commonly associated with five-star hotels.

That emphasis continues through the resident facilities, which include a 20-metre rooftop swimming pool, fully equipped gym and wellness spaces, full-time concierge, a residents' lounge, function room, private lifts, secure basement parking and rooftop communal areas overlooking the Parramatta River. Ground-floor boardwalk retail and dining further activate the riverfront and integrate the building into the surrounding public realm.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=925]

Australian housing and finance group Equitifund has secured the remaining apartments, believing there are few completed apartment opportunities in Parramatta that offer the same combination of location, amenity and pricing.

Equitifund National Sales Director Ben Hamblett says buyers are increasingly recognising that premium apartment living no longer needs to come with Sydney CBD pricing.

"The Lennox is where aspirational living becomes attainable," Hamblett said.

"Wake to river and mountain views, step into Sydney's Second CBD, and arrive home to resort-calibre amenities, all without the harbour price tag."

Hamblett says owner-occupiers are also attracted by the convenience of having Westfield Parramatta, Church Street's dining precinct, Parramatta Park, Riverside Theatres, Western Sydney University and major transport connections all within walking distance.

"At The Lennox, lifestyle is not an afterthought, it is the foundation."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=5374]

The Lennox places residents within walking distance of Parramatta Square, Westfield Parramatta, Church Street Eat Street, Parramatta Station, the ferry wharf, Light Rail, the future Sydney Metro West, Parramatta Park and CommBank Stadium, reinforcing Parramatta's position as one of Australia's most connected metropolitan centres outside Sydney's CBD.

Equitifund says buyers visiting the display suite consistently comment on the quality of the finishes, generous floorplans, river and skyline views, and the walkability of the location. The project has attracted a broad mix of local professionals, upsizers, downsizers, buyers relocating from Sydney's inner suburbs and interstate investors seeking long-term growth opportunities.

That demand aligns with Parramatta's continued evolution as an economic powerhouse. Equitifund Research and Market Insights specialist John Bekiaris says sustained population growth, infrastructure investment and expanding employment opportunities continue to support long-term housing demand across the city.

"Parramatta has evolved from a satellite city into one of Australia's most important economic centres. Population growth, infrastructure investment and employment are all supporting sustained long-term housing demand."

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=5743]

The apartment price gap drawing Sydney buyers west

A luxury beachfront apartment at Rainbow Bay has more than doubled in value since it sold off the plan six years ago, setting a new local apartment record in the process.

The three-bedroom apartment in the Flow development on Petrie Street, the first of four new projects locally by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects, has sold for $7.4 million, after originally selling for $3.27 million when the project launched in 2020.

The seventh-floor apartment, comprising 187 sqm of internal living space and a 54 sqm balcony overlooking Froggies Beach and Snapper Rocks, was purchased by a local family.

The transaction was negotiated by Pezet Matheson director Kerry Pezet and equates to more than $30,000 per sqm.

Pezet said the sale reflected the limited opportunities to buy into the boutique beachfront development.

"The sale highlights the rarity of opportunities within the boutique beachfront development, where residences seldom become available," Pezet said.

"Flow is one of the Gold Coast's most tightly held buildings. Buyers from our database move quickly when residences become available, and achieving an off-market sale at $7.4 million demonstrates the depth of demand for property of this calibre."

<img alt="Flow" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c585b206-2130-4eee-a50c-3f27c51a7c70" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-06%20at%208.33.25%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=m3pHRDV62Y3fvN.XQuQHq.52ilTWpRLf" />

Flow was the first of four luxury apartment developments delivered by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects at Rainbow Bay and was completed in 2023.

Positioned on the beachfront overlooking Snapper Rocks, the residence includes three bedrooms, three bathrooms, a powder room and views stretching north along the coastline towards Surfers Paradise.

Pezet Matheson Residential principal Mitchell Lambert said buyers continued to prioritise quality beachfront apartments in tightly held locations.

"Flow Residences offers a rare combination of elevated beachfront positioning, architectural excellence, comprehensive resident amenity and premium finishes, which is exactly what discerning purchasers are seeking," Lambert said.

"The transaction further reinforces Rainbow Bay's reputation as one of Australia's premier coastal lifestyle destinations, where limited supply and growing demand continue to support strong market performance."

Pezet Matheson originally marketed and sold out Flow off the plan, making the latest transaction a return to one of the project's original buyers.

Paul Gedoun is selling his third project, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/radia-rainbow-bay-271-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Radia Rainbow Bay</a>, after recently completing, and selling out, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/esprit-217-227-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Esprit</a>. He has plans for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/first-look-s-s-projects-proposes-88-apartment-wellness-tower-at-coolangattas-boundary-street">fourth building</a>, 88 apartments on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/209-213-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Boundary Street</a>.

Rainbow Bay apartment doubles in price since off the plan sale during pandemic

Home Prices

<html><body>
EXPERT INSIGHT

Australian capital city average dwelling prices rose 2% in February according to CoreLogic and are up 2.6% on a year ago. This is their fastest monthly gain since 2003 and they have now surpassed their September 2017 record high by 0.7%.

Sydney dwelling prices rose a very strong 2.5%, resulting in five months of gains, and are up 2.8% on a year ago. Melbourne prices also rose 2.1%, resulting in four months of gains, but are down -1.3% on a year ago reflecting a -5.6% fall around mid-2020 through the various lockdowns.

Prices in other cities were all up strongly led by Hobart with prices up 2.5% in February and 8.7% through the year, followed by Canberra up 1.9%, Brisbane and Perth both up 1.5%, Adelaide up 0.8% and Darwin up 0.7%. Prices in Hobart, Canberra, Brisbane and Adelaide are all at record highs.

<img alt="" height="794" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/surging_house_prices_oliver.jpg" width="1200">

Regional dwelling prices rose 2.1% in February and 9.4% on a year ago with their relative strength reflecting lower levels of indebtedness and hence less vulnerability to the financial stresses caused by the pandemic driven economic downturn, less exposure to the slump in immigration and increased buyer interest as people seek to relocate from cities as part of a secular trend towards working from home and a greater focus on lifestyle.

Capital city house prices rose 2.3% in February and 3.6% over the last 12 months whereas unit prices lagged with a 1.1% gain in the month and a -0.1% fall on a year ago, with the relative underperformance likely reflecting an ongoing shift in lifestyle preferences towards houses as a result of more working from home and a lifestyle choice and as weak rental conditions made worse by the slump in immigration constrain the inner city unit markets in Sydney and Melbourne. Over the last 12 months unit rents fell -8.0% in Melbourne and -5.3% in Sydney, although there were further signs of stabilisation in February.

The strength in home prices is consistent with the surge in new housing finance commitments over recent months. This rose another 10.5% in January and is now up 44.3% from a year ago. First home buyer finance surged 10.1%mom - and is up a whopping 73% on a year ago - to a new record high although with owner occupier ex first home buyer finance up an even stronger 11.3%, the first home buyer share of new loans slipped from a record 25% to 24.9%. Investor finance is now also surging and rose 9.4%. The ongoing strength in finance commitments points to more solid house price gains in the months ahead although January’s 2% capital city rise may be hard to beat.

Auction clearances are now very strong and sales are running around pre coronavirus levels, although listings are still relatively low. Clearance rates are at levels consistent with 15% or so annual price gains!

What’s driving the surge in home prices?

The combination of reopening unleashing pent up demand, government incentives, the removal of responsible lending obligations, record low mortgage rates, the desire to "escape from the city" and relatively low property listings are all helping to push prices higher with an element of FOMO (or the “fear of missing out” creeping in too. This is after bank payment holidays and Government income support measures averted a sharp fall in prices that would otherwise have followed from the pandemic recession. The combination has more than offset the impact of weak inner city rental markets and the hit to immigration and has brought forward demand from first home buyers and owner occupiers, with investors now starting to jump in too.

Average capital city dwelling prices have now surpassed their September 2017 high, although this masks a wide divergence with: clear record highs in Brisbane, Adelaide, Hobart and Canberra and in average regional home prices; Sydney and Melbourne still down just over 1% from their 2017 highs; and Perth and Darwin remaining well down on their 2014 highs.  

<img alt="" height="806" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/average_prices_record_high_oliver.jpg" width="1200">

Outlook

Australian home prices are likely to rise another 5% to 10% this year and next being boosted by record low mortgage rates, government home buyer incentives and the recovery in the jobs market but the stop to immigration and weak rental markets will likely constrain price gains in inner city areas and units in Melbourne and Sydney. Outer suburbs, houses, smaller cities and regional areas will see relatively stronger gains in 2021.

The phasing down of government incentives and exhaustion of first home buyers will likely see first home buyer demand as a share of housing finance and overall demand peak in the months ahead but they will likely be replaced by rebounding investor demand. Possible increases in 4 year plus fixed rate mortgage rates flowing from the recent surge in bond yields will act as a bit of a dampener but likely only enough to see price growth settle around a 5-10% annual pace.

Shane Oliver is the Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital 
</body></html>

The strength in home prices is consistent with the surge in new housing finance commitments over recent months

soliver

Housing finance commitments surged another 10.5% to start 2021: Shane Oliver

<html><body>
EXPERT INSIGHT

The combination of reopening unleashing pent up demand, an avalanche of government incentives (including stamp duty concessions, various state support measures, HomeBuilder and an expansion of the First Home Loan Deposit Scheme), a further easing in lending standards on the way for early this year (with the removal of responsible lending obligations), record low mortgage rates, the desire to "escape from the city" helped along by ongoing bank payment holidays and Government income support measures averted a sharp fall in prices that would otherwise have followed from higher unemployment and underemployment, weak inner city rental markets and the hit to immigration and brought forward demand from first home buyers and owner occupiers. As a result property prices have turned up far earlier than I had been expecting and there appears to be a bit of FOMO (or the “fear of missing out”) creeping into some markets and pushing them higher.

At the current rate of increase average capital city dwelling prices will surpass their September 2017 record high by March, although this masks a wide divergence with: record highs already in Brisbane, Adelaide, Hobart and Canberra and in average regional home prices; Perth and Darwin remaining well down on their 2014 highs; and Sydney and Melbourne prices having been range bound since 2017.  

Outlook

Australian home prices are likely to continue to rise through 2021 being boosted by record low mortgage rates, government home buyer incentives and with the recovery in the economy expected to offset the phasing down of income support measures and bank payment holidays and some incentives. As a result average capital city home prices are expected to rise by around 5% through the year. While first home buyer incentives are likely to be reduced seeing a decline in first home buyer demand later in the year, investor interest is expected to pick up.

However, the outlook is widely divergent across cities, within cities and across units versus houses.

<img alt="" height="355" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/amp_jan_2.png" width="545">

The downside risks relate to: renewed coronavirus related lockdowns with the latest being in Perth although so far new case numbers seem to be getting kept down and vaccines should help head off this risk entirely later in the year; higher unemployment and underemployment and distressed sales as government income and bank support measures wind down although the risk on this front are rapidly diminishing; falling rents and high vacancy rates in inner city Melbourne and Sydney weighing on investors; a 100,000 per annum reduction in underlying dwelling demand flowing from the hit to immigration; and a pandemic/work from home driven “escape to the suburbs and regions” that is weighing on inner city/unit prices but pushing up outer suburban/house and regional prices.

It remains hard to see that the reversal in net immigration from around 240,000 people per annum to an expected net outflow of people this financial year (of -70,000) and next (of -20,000) won’t have a significant impact. The surge in population growth of around 150,000 people per annum taking it to around 375,000 people per annum due to higher immigration from the middle of the 2000s was the main factor explaining very expensive Australian housing over the last 15 years as the property market became chronically undersupplied. The collapse in population growth which is likely to result in a halving in underlying demand for housing this financial year and next at the same time that governments are intent on supporting housing construction via various initiatives including HomeBuilder is likely to weigh on prices at some point as chronic undersupply gives way to oversupply in some areas. Particularly with rate cuts and incentives pulling demand forward and mortgage rate reductions reaching the end of the road. This is particularly likely to weigh on unit rents and prices along with investor demand in Sydney and Melbourne.

<img alt="" height="376" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/amp_jan_1.png" width="620">

Inner city Melbourne and Sydney are the most vulnerable to the hit to immigration, but this may not become fully apparent for another six months or so. Outer suburban areas and houses in these cities are likely to continue seeing solid price gains reflecting the “escape from the city” phenomenon against a backdrop of very low mortgage rates. On average Sydney and Melbourne price gains are likely to be modest at around 2 to 3% through 2021.

Other cities and regional areas are likely to perform well reflecting lower levels of debt and less exposure to immigration and as such as likely to see rising average prices with record low mortgage rates dominating. Adelaide and Brisbane are playing catch up after years of underperformance compared to Sydney and Melbourne, Canberra is benefitting from strength in public sector employment and Perth and Darwin are starting to recover after bear markets ever since 2014 helped by the recovery in mining investment in WA. Expect average price gains of close to 10% in Adelaide, Brisbane, Perth, Darwin and regional areas and around 5 to 7% in Canberra and Hobart.

Basically, Sydney and Melbourne lead the longer term cycle and the other cities and regional prices follow. Right now, Brisbane, Adelaide, Hobart, Canberra and average regional dwelling prices are playing catch up after underperforming Sydney and Melbourne into 2017 and Perth and Darwin home prices are finally recovering from a multi-year bear market that went bust with the end of the mining investment boom. The surge in immigration played a big role in the outperformance of Sydney and Melbourne into 2017 and this is now going into reverse.

Outer suburban houses and dwellings in regional centres are likely to perform better than inner city units in most capital cities as a continuing trend to working from home and a greater focus on lifestyle dominates.

SHANE OLIVER is the Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital 
</body></html>

Regional home prices outpacing the capital cities in 2021: Shane Oliver

<html><body>
The Melbourne apartment market has continued to see price growth at the start of 2021 following a strong run toward the back end of 2020.

The median apartment value was up 0.1 per cent, according to data analytics firm CoreLogic, following from 0.6 per cent gains in December and 0.7 per cent gains in November.

The gain sees the median apartment value hit $577,206. Apartment investors were given a boost over January, with unit rents holding firm having declined 7.8 per cent over the past year.

Urban has taken a look at five apartments blocks to secure under or around the median apartment value.

<h2>1. Collins &amp; Bates, Chadstone</h2>

Price: Two bedroom apartments starting from $520,000.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=3950]

In the 98 residence Collins &amp; Bates, you can secure a two bedroom apartment for well below Melbourne's median apartment value. Prices for two beds start from $520,000, with one bed apartments from $420,000. All three bedroom residences, which started from $1 million, are sold out.

Aultun Property Group are the developers behind Collins &amp; Bates. They had Point Architects design the residences and had C&amp;C Interiors handle the interiors which feature Caesar stone bench tops, porcelain splashbacks, Bosch appliances, wool carpets and engineered oak timber flooring.

<h2>2. Hurstmon, Malvern East</h2>

Price: One bedroom apartments starting from $449,000.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4807]

Landream's Hurstmon development, set for completion in early 2022, has one bedroom apartments available from as low as $449,000. Their two bedroom apartments are a step up, starting from $795,000.

Designed by Telha Clarke, the 39 residence development is surrounded by stately trees and lush, established gardens.

<h2>3. Verre, Preston</h2>

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7275]

Wolf&amp;Lamb's Verre development, set for completion in early 2022, has one, two and three bedroom residences on offer with prices ranging from $385,000 to $815,000.

The 57 residence complex has been designed by Chamberlain Architects.

<h2>4. Melbourne Grand, Melbourne</h2>

Price: Two bedroom apartments starting from $569,000.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=3490]

Winner of the HIA Victorian apartment complex of the year for 2020, the Melbourne Grand has its two bedroom apartments starting from $569,000, just below Melbourne's median apartment price.

The 652 unit project, developed by Central Equity, offers a range of one, two and three bedroom apartments priced from $489,000.

<h2>5. Volaire, West Melbourne</h2>

Price: Two bedroom apartments starting from $599,000.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=2407]

Just above Melbourne's median price are two bedroom apartments in the 159 apartment development Volaire. The CBUS Property-developed project spanning 10 levels has been designed by Hayball to pay homage to the site's industrial heritage with its architectural façade.

The triangular building features cantilevered balconies and occupies its own island site with a ground floor restaurant.

 
</body></html>

Apartment investors were given a boost over January, with unit rents holding firm having declined 7.8 per cent over the past year.

Melbourne apartment median value up 0.1% in January: What you can buy for the new median 

<html><body>
<h2>EXPERT INSIGHT</h2>

The first indicators for 2021 – home prices and manufacturing activity – are exhibiting signs of economic strength, rather than weakness.

Home prices are rising across the country. In fact home prices only fell in two of the 88 regions in the past month. And over the past year all but 12 regions posted gains in home prices. The icing on the cake: data shows that in 39 of the 88 regions, home prices were at record highs at the end of 2020.

The outback regions of South Australia and the Northern Territory as well as the mid to far north coast regions of NSW were amongst those posting the strongest home price gains in December. The Sydney Eastern Suburbs (down 0.1 per cent) and Far West and Orana region of NSW (-0.4 per cent) were the only two regions to record falls in home prices in December.

Regional home prices continue to outpace capital cities and house prices are out-pacing apartment prices. Both reflect Covid-19 effects, especially the new reality that work can be done anywhere and at any time.

The manufacturing sector is expanding solidly. In fact many companies reported that “backlogs of work had risen simply due to a short-term inability to expand production capacity sufficiently to meet the recent surge in demand.” And further, “efforts to boost capacity were reflected in manufacturers taking on extra staff at a rate not seen for just over two years.”   

What do the figures show?  Home prices – December 2020

The CoreLogic Home Value Index of national home prices rose by 1.0 per cent in December to be 3.0 per cent higher over the year. 

In capital cities, prices rose by 0.9 per cent to be up 2.0 per cent over the year. House prices climbed 1.1 per cent, but apartment prices rose by just 0.2 per cent. House prices were up 2.6 per cent on a year ago and prices of apartments increased by 0.2 per cent.

In regional areas, home prices jumped 1.6 per cent with house prices up 1.7 per cent and apartment prices up by 1.1 per cent. Regional home prices were up 6.9 per cent on the year with houses lifting 7.1 per cent and apartments up 5.9 per cent.  

The average Australian capital city house price (median price) in December was $696,413 and the average unit price was $574,388.

Home prices were higher in all eight capital cities in December: Sydney (+0.7 per cent); Melbourne (+1.0 per cent); Brisbane (+1.1 per cent); Adelaide (+1.1 per cent); Perth (+1.1 per cent); Hobart (+0.7 per cent); Darwin (+2.3 per cent); Canberra (+0.6 per cent).

Home prices were higher than a year ago in seven of the eight capital cities in December: Sydney (+2.7 per cent); Melbourne (-1.3 per cent); Brisbane (+3.6 per cent); Adelaide (+5.9 per cent); Perth (+2.0 per cent); Hobart (+7.7 per cent); Darwin (+11.9 per cent); Canberra (+8.5 per cent).

Total returns on national dwellings rose by 6.6 per cent in the year to December with houses up 7.1 per cent and units up by 5.0 per cent on a year earlier. In contrast, the S&amp;P/ASX All Ordinaries Accumulation Index rose by 3.6 per cent over the year to December. 

What are the implications for investors?

Higher home prices boost household wealth and also serve to boost borrowing capacity. As such the lift in home prices is positive for consumer durables including demand for cars.

CoreLogic reports that annual home sales were around 8 per cent higher over 2020. CoreLogic notes: “More home sales implies more work for a range of industries including real estate professionals, removalists, conveyancers, financiers and building inspectors along with more spending on household goods such as home furnishings, white goods and appliances.”

The strength in manufacturing is positive for employment and related sectors such as retailing. The increases in input prices and selling prices need to be watched though.

Risks to the housing market – prices, sales and building – include policy mistakes, the scaledown of JobKeeper and JobSeeker, new waves of virus infection and the length of time that foreign borders stay closed.

CRAIG JAMES is the Chief Economist at CommSec
</body></html>

Regional home prices continue to outpace capital cities and house prices are out-pacing apartment prices

cjames

Home prices hit record highs across half of Australia despite COVID-19: Craig James

<html><body>
Although values have been increasing for almost 4.5 years, homes continue to sell quite rapidly with a relatively low level of discounting occurring from vendors.
The vendor discount and time on market metrics are important measures of current market conditions. The vendor discounting metric looks at properties selling for less than their original list price and looks at the percentage difference from initial list price to ultimate sale price. 
The time on market metric shows the average number of days between when a property is first listed and when it ultimately sells. It’s important to note that each of these measures is based on private treaty sales and therefore excludes auctions.
In September 2016, the average days on market across the combined capital cities was recorded at 39 days. At the same time a year earlier the average days on market was a slightly lower 36 days. 
<div>
<h3>Average days on market, combined capital cities</h3>
<a href="/images/2016/11/23/2016-11-17--pp-image1.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/11/23/2016-11-17--pp-image1.png" alt="">
The second chart highlights the average days on market figure across each of the capital cities for each of the past 8 years in September. Over recent years homes have been selling much quicker in Sydney and Melbourne than they have across the other capital cities. Homes in Hobart and Canberra have seen fairly large falls in days on market over the past year which aligns with accelerating value growth. In Perth and Darwin homes have seen a large rise in the average days on market as selling conditions have become tougher and values have declined.
<h3>Average days on market, individual capital cities as at September </h3>
<a href="/images/2016/11/23/2016-11-17--image2.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/11/23/2016-11-17--image2.png" alt="">
In September 2016, the typical home which sold at a discount from its original listing price was discounted by -5.7 percent across the combined capital cities. In comparison, at the same time a year earlier the typical level of discounting was recorded at -6.0 percent. The lower level of discounting is reflective of more demand and fewer homes for sale but is also likely to reflect more realistic initial listing prices from vendors.
<h3>Average vendor discount, combined capital cities</h3>
<a href="/images/2016/11/23/2016-11-17--pp-image3.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/11/23/2016-11-17--pp-image3.png" alt="">
The final chart shows the discounting levels for each capital city in September over each of the past 8 years. Once again Sydney and Melbourne, along with Canberra, have been seeing low levels of discounting by vendors over recent years. In Sydney and Melbourne in particular this is indicative of strong housing demand which has led to many homes selling in excess of their initial list price. Despite only moderate growth in values over recent years Canberra has consistently recorded low levels of discounting. In Perth and Darwin as the housing market has wakened over recent years discounting levels have increased significantly.
<h3>Average vendor discount, individual capital cities as at September</h3>
<a href="/images/2016/11/23/2016-11-17--image4.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/11/23/2016-11-17--image4.png" alt="">
After combined capital city home values have been increasing for almost four and a half years (mainly in Sydney and Melbourne) the level of discounting and time on market remains extremely low. This is being driven by ongoing strong housing demand coupled with relatively low stock levels.  While these conditions persist it is difficult to see how home values in Sydney and Melbourne in particular, won’t continue to increase.
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.
</div>
</body></html>

ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Homes are selling much quicker in Sydney and Melbourne: Cameron Kusher

<html><body>
There are four indicators to focus on to determine home price trends over the next six months, according to CBA analysis. 
Housing finance demand, auction clearance rates, foreign residential demand and consumer sentiment about price expectations will be key considerations across the market as CBA Global Markets Research forecasts prices are likely to continue to deflate from record highs.
“The evidence suggests that dwelling prices will continue to deflate in the very near term,” said CBA Senior Economist Gareth Aird.
“There will be significant variations between capital cities and indeed suburbs within the same cities, but the broader trend should be one of continuing mild price declines.”
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/15/1.jpg" alt="">
Source: Commbank Research
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/15/2.jpg" alt="">
Source: Commbank Research
What about interest rates?
As long as the downturn in the housing market remains divorced from the broader economy, which continues to perform relatively well, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will continue to signal that that cash rate is “more likely to go up than down”, Aird said.
Changes in mortgage rates impact the demand for credit, which is captured in the flow of new lending.
New lending is driven by the supply and demand for credit, Aird explained, and the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data indicated the flow of housing credit continues to fall and the pace of the decline has accelerated.
“Credit to investors has been trending down for the past one-and-a-half years, but it’s the shift downwards in lending to owner-occupiers that’s behind the recent acceleration,” he said.
Tighter lending standards have played a part, but they “are not the primary driver of the acceleration in the downward trend of housing finance”.
“Rather, the demand for credit has declined because momentum in the market has come off and household expectations of property price appreciation have declined.”
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/15/3.jpg" alt="">
Source: Commbank Research
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/15/8.jpg" alt="">
Source: Commbank Research 
Auction clearance rates
After strong gains in home sale prices in many parts of Australia over the past five years, the country’s auction clearance rate has been on a downward trend throughout 2018, dipping recently to between 40-45%.
“The latest auction clearance rates imply that dwelling prices in Sydney and Melbourne will weaken further over the very near term,” Aird said.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/15/5.jpg" alt="">
 
Source: Commbank Research
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/15/4.jpg" alt="">
Source: Commbank Research
Foreign demand
Foreign investment in Australian property has waned over the past two years, after a lift in state government-levied stamp duty to foreign investors and tighter capital controls out of China.
“The decline in foreign investor demand is consistent with a further easing in dwelling prices over the near term,” Aird said, and currently there’s “no evidence to suggest a rebound in foreign investor demand”.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/15/6.jpg" alt="">
Source: Commbank Research
Great expectations
Consumer sentiment surveys have proved to be a “useful near-term indicator of the annual change in dwelling prices”.
However, Aird explained the self-fulfilling aspect: “If households expect prices to weaken, then demand for credit will fall and prices will correct lower. The reverse is also true when households expect price growth to accelerate.”
Currently, house price expectation indicators point to dwelling prices continuing to deflate over the near term, he said.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/15/7.jpg" alt="">
Source: Commbank Research
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/15/9.jpg" alt="">
Source: Commbank Research
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/15/10.jpg" alt="">
Source: Commbank Research
</body></html>

j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

The top four indicators driving home prices across Australia: CBA

<html><body>
Perth’s property gloom may be nearing its end, with research group BIS Oxford Economics forecasting that home prices have bottomed out in WA’s capital city and will start to rise from 2018.
BIS modelling shows price of houses in Perth won’t change in 2017-18, but is expected to gain 3 per cent from 2018-20, the Perth Now reported.
The median house price in Perth is $540,000. 
If BIS forecasts are accurate, this would mean an increase at least $15,000 over the next three years.
<div>
CoreLogic's monthly hedonic index showed Perth home values rose 1.4 percent in June, although they were still down 1.7 percent year on year.
The median dwelling price was $484,000.
BIS analyst Angie Zigomanis said the excess housing supply was approaching a peak.
</div>
Perth’s median unit price will drop one per cent over the three years to $400,000, it said.
“Our view is that Perth’s median house price has, or will shortly, bottom out,” BIS analyst Angie Zigomanis said.
“Having said that, any recovery will still be very slow and by 2020, we are only expecting a 3 per cent rise from this low, which won’t even keep up with inflation.” 
</body></html>

jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Perth house prices likely to rise from 2018: BIS 

<html><body>
The rise in home prices is expected to moderate in 2017, especially Sydney and Melbourne, where prices will take a breather from their double-digit growth, according to a forecast by leading economists in the 2017 BusinessDay Scope survey. 
The CoreLogic measure for home price increase will grow by just 4.9 per cent in Sydney, while for Melbourne it will be 4.3 per cent, a far cry from the 15.5 per cent growth for Sydney and 13.7 per cent for Melbourne in 2016. 
The BusinessDay survey carried by The Sydney Morning Herald is made up of forecasts from 27 leading economists. Over time its average predictions have proved to be more accurate than those of any of its individual members.
Some forecasters expect home prices to fall — Nicki Hutley (Urbis Consulting), Stephen Koukoulas (Market Economics) and author, Professor Steve Keen -- while two expect no growth (Jakob Madsen of Monash University and Richard Robinson from the property specialist BIS Shrapnel), the report said.
The highest forecasts are for further growth of 12 percent -- Julie Toth of Australian Industry Group and Renee Fry-McKibbin of Australian National University -- for Sydney and Mardi Dungey (University of Tasmania) for Melbourne.
The range of housing investment forecasts is also wide, with the highest being a growth of 11 per cent (Neville Norman of the University of Melbourne) while the lowest is a slide of 5.5 pe cent (from the Housing Industry Association).  The average forecast is a low 1.9 percent growth. 
The general consensus also says the Reserve Bank won’t adjust interest rates at its first meeting for the year on Tuesday and has very little pressure to adjust them at any time during the year. 
Below is the results of the survey given to the economists.
<table style="width: 472px;" border="1" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Name
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
Company
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
Sydney home prices year to Dec (%)
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
Melbourne home prices year to Dec (%)
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Stephen Anthony
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
Industry Super
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
5.4
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
7.1
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Sally Auld
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
JP Morgan
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
-
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
-
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
David Bassanese
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
BetaShares
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
5
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
5
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Paul Bloxham
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
HSBC
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
5
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
3
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Michale Blythe
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
Commonwealth Bank
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
7
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
5
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Paul Dales
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
Capital Economics
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
8
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
10
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Besa Deda
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
Bank of Melbourne
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
6
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
4
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Bill Evans
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
Westpac
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
-
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
-
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Shane Oliver
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
AMP Capital
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
4
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
3
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Sun-Lin Ong
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
RBC Capital Markets
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
-
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
-
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Riki Polygenis
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
National Australia Bank
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
3.9
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
4.8
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Richard Yetsenga
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
ANZ Bank
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
-
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
-
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Janine Dixon
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
Victoria University
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
-
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
-
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Mardi Dungey
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
University of Tasmania
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
10
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
12
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Saul Eslake
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
University of Tasmania
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
 
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
-
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Renee Fry-McKibbin
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
Australian National University
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
12
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
10
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Steve Keen
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
Kingston University, London
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
0
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
-4
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Guay Lim
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
Melbourne Institute
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
6
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
4.5
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Jakob Madsen
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
Monash University
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
0
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
0
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Bill Mitchell
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
University of Newcastle
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
8
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
8
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Neville Norman
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
University of Melbourne
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
9
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
11
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Nicki Hutley
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
Urbis Consulting
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
-3
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
-5
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Stephen Koukoulas
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
Market Economics
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
-5
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
-6
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Richard Robinson
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
BIS Shrapnel
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
0
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
0
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Shane Garrett
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
Housing Industry Association
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
5
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
4.5
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Margaret McKenzie
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
ACTU
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
-
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
-
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Julie Toth
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
Australian Industry Group
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
12
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
10
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="2" valign="top" width="279">
Low
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
-5
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
-6
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="2" valign="top" width="279">
High
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
12
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
12
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="2" valign="top" width="279">
AVERAGE
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
4.9
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
4.3
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
</body></html>

Home price growth to take a breather in 2017, says survey of economists

<html><body><div class="page" title="Page 1">
<div class="section">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">GUEST OBSERVER</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">The CoreLogic Home Value Index of capital city home prices rose by 1.0 per cent in September to stand 7.1 per cent higher over the year. Prices rose in all capital cities except Perth and Darwin. But regional prices were only up 1.4 per cent in the year to August (latest data).</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">Petrol: Today the national average wholesale (terminal gate) unleaded petrol price stands at 106.8 cents a litre, down 0.5 cents a litre over the week after falling by 0.9 cents in the previous week. Capital cities: MotorMouth records the following retail prices for capital cities today: Sydney 122.6c; Melbourne 125.7c; Brisbane 107.5c; Adelaide 116.1c; Perth 103.5c; Canberra 118.7c; Darwin 109.8c; Hobart 121.7
Manufacturing: The Performance of Manufacturing index rose by 2.9 points to 49.8 in September. A reading below 50.0 indicates that the sector is contracting. 
<div class="page" title="Page 1">
<div class="section">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">It is clear that there is no single housing market. And for that matter, there is no single market for petrol. Housing prices are responding to the different population or demand influences as well as the different stages of the building cycle. Demand for homes in Sydney and Melbourne is supported by solid population growth while supply hasn’t caught up. Not yet, anyway – the process is underway. In contrast the increased supply of new homes in Perth is happening at a time of softening population growth. There have always been different cycles across the country and this time is no different.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">Looking at the simple national dwelling price (capital cities and regions) on a three-month rolling average basis, home prices are up just 1 per cent over the past year. Looking over a 25-year period, annual price growth has averaged around 6 per cent. Over the last five years, annual growth was nearer to 3 percent.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">The jury is still out on petrol prices. OPEC oil producers are seeking to limit production and support prices. But many doubt that the moves will be effective given significant global oil supplies and the lack of agreement to stem output outside of the OPEC grouping.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">Manufacturers are being influenced by a range of positive and negative forces at present. The higher Aussie dollar isn’t helping producers but they are benefitting from the stronger demand now that Brexit and the election are out of the way.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">What do the figures show?</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column"><a href="/images/2016/10/04/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-04%20at%208.20.09%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="column"><img src="/images/2016/10/04/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-04%20at%208.20.09%20AM.png" alt=""></div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">Home prices</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">The CoreLogic Home Value Index of capital city home prices rose by 1.0 per cent in September and was up 7.1 per cent over the year.
In regional Australia, house prices fell 0.1 per cent in August and were just 1.4 per cent higher than a year ago.  (regional prices cover just houses and data is up to the end of August).  
In capital cities, house prices rose by 1.0 per cent in September while apartment prices rose by 1.2 per cent. House prices were up 7.3 per cent on a year ago and apartments were up by 6.1 per cent.  
 The average Australian capital city house price (median price based on settled sales over quarter) was $600,000 and the average unit price was $510,000.
 Dwelling prices rose in six of the eight capital cities in September: Canberra (up 2.4 per cent); Melbourne (up 2.3 per cent); Adelaide (up 2.1 per cent), Sydney (up 0.8 per cent); Brisbane and Hobart (both up 0.1 per cent). Prices fell most in Perth (down 2.5 per cent) followed by Darwin (down 2.2 per cent).  
 Home prices were higher than a year ago in six of the eight capital cities. Prices rose most in Sydney (up 10.2 per cent); followed by Melbourne and Canberra (both up 9.0 per cent); Hobart (up 8.7 per cent); Adelaide (up 6.5 per cent); and Brisbane (up 3.0 per cent). Prices fell in Darwin (down 6.0 per cent) and Perth (down by 7.0 per cent).  
Total returns on capital city dwellings in the year to September rose by 10.9 per cent with houses up 10.9 per cent on a year earlier and units up 10.6 per cent.  
Petrol prices
Today the national average wholesale (terminal gate) unleaded petrol price stands at 106.8 cents a litre, down 0.5 cents a litre over the week after falling by 0.9 cents in the previous week. The terminal gate diesel price stands at 104.2 cents a litre, up by 0.3 cents a litre after falling by 1.1 cents a litre over the previous week.  
Last week the key Singapore gasoline price rose by US$1.60 or 2.7 per cent to US$60.20 a barrel. In Australian dollar terms the Singapore gasoline price rose by $2.17 a barrel or 2.8 per cent to a 16-week high of $78.90 a barrel or 49.62 cents a litre.  
MotorMouth records the following retail prices for capital cities today: Sydney 122.6c; Melbourne 125.7c; Brisbane 107.5c; Adelaide 116.1c; Perth 103.5c; Canberra 118.7c; Darwin 109.8c; Hobart 121.7c.  
In the September quarter Australian petrol prices fell by between 2-3 per cent after lifting 5.9 per cent in the June quarter. As such, lower petrol prices are keeping downward pressure on the overall inflation rate.  
<a href="/images/2016/10/04/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-04%20at%208.18.35%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/04/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-04%20at%208.18.35%20AM.png" alt="">
Performance of Manufacturing.
The Performance of Manufacturing index rose by 2.9 points to 49.8 in August. A reading below 50.0 indicates that the sector is contracting. Before August the index had been above 50 for 13 months – the longest period of expansion since September 2006.  
AIG notes “Three of the seven activity sub-indexes in the Australian PMI® expanded in September after contracting in August. Production (52.6 points), deliveries (56.4 points) and sales (51.4 points) expanded and exports stabilised (50.0 points). Employment (46.7 points) and stocks (44.3 points) contracted again. New orders slipped into contraction (48.3 points).”  
“Comments from manufacturers in September indicate a steady improvement in demand and exports in some sectors after last month’s dip. Variability in the exchange rate and persisting oversupply in some markets is curbing activity. Margin pressures appear to be intensifying due to ongoing high input costs (particularly for imported inputs and energy). Lower government orders, the sharp fall-off in mining construction work and the completion of major infrastructure projects (with no imminent replacement projects in the pipeline) and wet weather in some locations has also dampened activity.”  
<div class="page" title="Page 3">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
What is the importance of the economic data? 
Weekly figures on petrol prices are compiled by ORIMA Research on behalf of the Australian Institute of Petroleum (AIP). National average retail prices are calculated as the weighted average of each State/Territory's metropolitan and non-metropolitan retail petrol prices, with the weights based on the number of registered petrol vehicles in each of these regions. AIP data for retail petrol prices is based on available market data supplied by MotorMouth. </div>
<div class="column">The CoreLogic Hedonic Australian Home Value Index is based on Australia’s biggest property database. Unlike the ABS Index, which excludes terraces, semi-detached homes and apartments, the CoreLogic Hedonic Index includes all properties. Home prices are an important driver of wealth and spending. The Australian Industry Group compiles the Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) each month. The Australian PMI is the Australian equivalent of the US ISM manufacturing gauge. The PMI is one of the timeliest economic indicators released in Australia. The PMI is useful not just in showing how the manufacturing sector is performing but in providing some sense about where it is heading. The key ‘forward looking’ components are orders and employment.
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
Petrol prices are likely to remain volatile, reflecting discounting cycles and the push and pull of global factors. But overall, prices are likely to remain affordable compared with previous years. As such, the price of petrol is not having a big impact on consumer spending – more of a benign influence.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">There is a fair debate on the accuracy of home price data. The bottom line is that prices are moving at different speeds across the country depending on the usual supply-demand influences. Recent trends aren’t a cause for concern. Using averages of settled sales across the entire country, prices are barely growing in annual terms.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">Latest data shows that the Australian economy remains in good shape. </div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column"><a href="/images/2016/10/04/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-04%20at%208.17.25%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="column"><img src="/images/2016/10/04/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-04%20at%208.17.25%20AM.png" alt=""></div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>.</div>
</div>
</div>
 
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div></body></html>

Home Prices

Editor's Picks

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News

Home Prices

Editor's Picks

Receive the latest news stories to your inbox

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News