A landmark former orphanage site in Surrey Hills could be transformed into a new residential community under plans lodged by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/antipodean-land-developments">Antipodean Land Developments</a> that would deliver 76 apartments and townhouses while restoring some of the suburb's most significant heritage buildings.

The burgeoninng Melbourne-based developer has submitted plans for the 9,158 sqm site at 1 Kent Road and 24 Durham Road, home to the former St Joseph's Home for Destitute Children, a historic institutional complex dating back to the late 19th century. The proposal seeks to adaptively reuse several heritage buildings while introducing two new four-storey residential buildings set within extensive landscaped grounds.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/woods-bagot">Woods Bagot</a> and Kerstin Thompson Architects, the project has been conceived as a contemporary residential village embedded within a restored heritage precinct. The development team describes the design approach as "The Village in the Garden," with new buildings positioned among mature landscaping by OCULUS and significant heritage structures.

<img alt="First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="44ec8c1b-c0b6-44ae-859e-5811b3e6a023" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Untitled%20design%20%281%29.png?VersionId=p.p1_KFh4iQoV4nisdnPfQBAsWNi7m79" />

The proposal would deliver 76 dwellings comprising a mix of apartments and duplex-style residences, significantly increasing housing supply on one of the largest privately held residential landholdings in Surrey Hills. The development includes 127 car spaces, 24 bicycle spaces and more than 1,000 sqm of communal amenity, with the existing chapel building earmarked for conversion into resident facilities.

According to the planning submission, the project centres on the restoration and adaptive reuse of the site's most significant heritage assets, including the original c.1889 St Joseph's building, the chapel designed by architect Augustus Andrew Fritsch, and the historic brick perimeter walls and entry gates. The proposal also incorporates the retention of other contributory buildings including the former infirmary and school building.

Tract Consultants, in the planning report accompanying the application, said the scheme had been shaped through extensive heritage analysis and design development.

"The shared vision for the Site by the project team has culminated in a scheme which successfully breathes life back into a historic site while delivering upon the objectives of Victoria's Housing Statement in a carefully curated and contextually responsive manner."

<img alt="First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7263b7d8-95ea-400f-9531-6ca7d22c3c33" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Untitled%20design%20%282%29.png?VersionId=4cR1tiWOsDpgxEOwZi5vVFcyvvOsYkIE" />

The proposal is being assessed under Victoria's Significant Residential Development with Affordable Housing pathway. As part of the application, three per cent of the project's residential development cost would be contributed to the Social Housing Growth Fund. The development would also provide a diverse mix of one, two and three-bedroom residences targeting a broader range of buyers than typically found in Surrey Hills' detached housing market.

Sustainability initiatives include an anticipated 66 per cent BESS score, natural cross-ventilation to 80 per cent of apartments, 28 per cent deep soil landscaping and a canopy cover outcome exceeding local planning requirements. The proposal also sets aside more than 1,083 sqm for communal indoor and outdoor resident amenity spaces.

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Planning documents describe the property as one of the largest underutilised residential sites in Surrey Hills, arguing it presents a rare opportunity to introduce "missing middle" housing in an established inner-eastern suburb while preserving and revitalising a significant heritage precinct.

Antipodean Land Developments has built a reputation for design-focused residential projects across Melbourne, particularly in the medium-density sector. Previous developments include Neighbourhood in Brunswick East, delivered with Breathe Architecture, and Balfe Park Lane, designed by Kerstin Thompson Architects.

They've been very active in site acquisition as they build out their future development pipeline. They recently launched Thornubury House, 45 apartments above a mix of commercial, retail, and food and beverage tenancies, and have plans for a boutique project in Fitzroy and another <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/vic/antipodean-plan-apartments-for-deepdenes-missing-middle-on-whitehorse-road">"missing middle" project</a> on Deepdene's Whitehorse Road.

Joel Robinson

First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills

Developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/auyin-property-development">Auyin</a> is the latest to turn to the Victorian Government's Development Facilitation Program in an effort to secure approval for its long-planned, mixed-use project in Elsternwick.

In 2018, Auyin lodged plans with Glen Eira City Council for a 14-storey building, however Council approved a reduced eight-storey scheme. A subsequent VCAT appeal in 2019 upheld the eight-storey height limit.

The project was later amended to nine storeys, but Auyin is now seeking to revive something closer to its original vision. The developer argues that the planning context has evolved significantly over the past decade, particularly within the Elsternwick Activity Centre, where higher-density development has increasingly been encouraged along Glen Huntly Road.

The proposal would transform the 1,239 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/7-12-horne-street-elsternwick-vic-3185">7-15 Horne Street</a>, opposite Elsternwick Railway Station, into a 13-storey residential and retail development designed by CBG Architects, with 40 apartments

The site currently comprises three commercial properties.

<img alt="First look: 13-storey mixed-use tower planned for Elsternwick activity centre" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="5f465dd4-509b-4082-a669-0253b313914b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/elsternwick%20podium.png?VersionId=72frWi0SmQ5AVJ3ARRhX5ILUYObhTm7x" />

The proposed apartment mix comprises 25 two-bedroom and 15 three-bedroom residences above 200 sqm of retail space at ground level. Residents would have access to a 90 sqm wellness facility, a 351 sqm communal indoor and outdoor terrace on the third level, and extensive landscaped areas throughout the development. A publicly accessible 135 sqm plaza would be created on the north-east corner of the site, providing seating, landscaping, and a new gathering space adjoining Horne Street.

The design adopts a four-storey podium that references the finer-grain character of the surrounding streetscape, with the upper tower recessed behind generous setbacks on all boundaries.

<img alt="First look: 13-storey mixed-use tower planned for Elsternwick activity centre" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e637e763-2abc-4c34-a0aa-5c7ad36fae18" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/elsternwick%20open.png?VersionId=J1AoOpZgTyaF.KeeFSX6lMjEScX8KKRi" />

A key element of the proposal is the reconfiguration and widening of the surrounding laneways. Vehicle access would be retained from Lois Lane, with upgraded pedestrian connections linking Ross Street and Horne Street. The development would provide 58 residential car spaces, two retail car spaces, and 52 bicycle spaces across two basement levels and ground-floor facilities.

Architecturally, the building draws inspiration from the established character of Elsternwick Village. The façade combines dark charcoal brickwork, textured concrete, bronze-toned metal detailing, and extensive planting integrated into podium and tower levels. The design also incorporates a chamfered corner treatment and publicly accessible plaza intended to strengthen pedestrian activity around the station precinct.

Elsternwick's last new development completion was&nbsp;EVA Elsternwick by Pitard late last year. <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/milieu-property">Milieu</a> is working away on its nature-led neighbourhood, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/elsternwick-gardens-by-milieu-8-gordon-street-elsternwick-vic-3185">Elsternwick Gardens</a>, on Gordon Street, with its first stage expected to complete next year.

First look: Auyin seeks mixed-use apartment project in growing Elsternwick Activity Centre

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/otium-parkdale-123-125-como-parade-east-parkdale-vic-3195">Otium Parkdale</a>, the 13-residence boutique development by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/huxtable-property">Huxtable Property</a>, has entered its final stages of delivery, with completion expected within the coming month and more than half of the residences sold.

The Como Parade East project is nearing the finish line at a time when opportunities to purchase new apartments in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/parkdale-vic-3195">Parkdale</a> remain exceptionally limited. Fewer than 10 per cent of dwellings in the bayside suburb are apartments, making developments like Otium a relatively rare addition to a market traditionally dominated by detached housing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134974 project_image_fid=5427]

The three-level development comprises 13 residences, including ten two-bedroom apartments and three larger three-bedroom homes, all positioned above a secure basement car park.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/almeida-architects">Almeida Architects</a> with a strong connection to its coastal surroundings, Otium combines red brick, exposed concrete and dark metal detailing with integrated landscaping and greenery. Expansive glazing, generous balconies and terraces have been incorporated throughout the design to maximise natural light and reinforce indoor-outdoor living.

Inside, the residences feature engineered European oak flooring, natural and reconstituted stone benchtops, Bosch kitchen appliances, ducted heating and cooling, lift access and secure entry systems. The larger three-bedroom residences on the upper level have been designed with house-like proportions, while the two-bedroom apartments prioritise functionality, flexibility and low-maintenance living.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134974 project_image_fid=5421]

The project is now in its final stages, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/labco">Labco</a> completing the remaining landscaping and external finishing works following the completion of the residences' interiors.

Otium's location within the heart of Parkdale continues to underpin its appeal. Residents will be just steps from local cafés, restaurants, shops and the newly elevated Parkdale Station, while the beach is less than a kilometre away.

With the project tracking ahead of schedule, buyers can currently secure a residence with a five per cent deposit and benefit from settlement terms of up to eight months. The advanced stage of construction also provides buyers with the opportunity to walk through the near-complete residences and experience the quality and finishes firsthand ahead of completion.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134974]

Otium Parkdale enters final month before completion as rare apartment opportunity nears sellout

A new boutique apartment development is entering the market in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/chermside-qld-4032">Chermside</a>, with Brisbane-based developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/ausdev">Ausdev</a> bringing 33 residences to a well-connected pocket of Brisbane's north.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/parkdrive-apartments-chermside-25-sammells-drive-chermside-qld-4032">Parkdrive Apartments</a>, at 25 Sammells Drive, will comprise a mix of one- and two-bedroom residences positioned within walking distance of Westfield Chermside, The Prince Charles Hospital, and Bradbury Park.

Established in 1989, Ausdev has a long-standing presence across both development and construction, with Parkdrive Apartments representing its latest residential project in Brisbane's northern suburbs.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152125 project_image_fid=363778]

The development has been designed around open-plan living and natural light, with residences featuring stone benchtops, timber cabinetry, BOSCH appliances, and private balconies that extend the living areas outdoors.

Kitchens are positioned as the centrepiece of the homes, incorporating natural material palettes and integrated appliances, while bathrooms have been designed with a focus on functionality and understated finishes.

Residents will have access to a communal barbecue and entertaining area on Level 3, providing shared outdoor space within the development. Secure parking and lift access are also incorporated into the building.

The project will deliver a limited collection of 33 apartments, with one-bedroom residences priced from $749,000.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152125 project_image_fid=363782]

Beyond the building itself, the location places residents within easy reach of several of Chermside's key amenities. Bradbury Park is around 350 metres away, while Westfield Chermside is approximately 1.3 kilometres from the site. The Prince Charles Hospital is located within 750 metres, and the Chermside Bus Interchange is around 1.5 kilometres away, providing connections across Brisbane.

Parkdrive Apartments adds to the growing residential pipeline in Chermside, a suburb that continues to evolve as a major retail, healthcare, and transport hub for Brisbane's north.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152125]

Ausdev introduces boutique Parkdrive Apartments to Chermside's growing centre

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/skymark-group">Skymark</a>'s boutique Cronulla development Solis has secured a 10-year Latent Defects Insurance policy through Resilience Insurance, providing buyers of the 16-residence building on Ewos Parade with structural and waterproofing protection that extends a decade beyond the building's completion.

Currently under construction and due for completion in late 2027, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/solis-cronulla-8-ewos-parade-cronulla-nsw-2230">Solis</a> is one of a small number of new developments in the Sutherland Shire to carry Resilience LDI coverage, a distinction that carries increasing weight as buyer confidence in the off-the-plan sector continues to be shaped by how developers stand behind their product.

Latent Defects Insurance, which entered the Australian market in 2022 when Resilience Insurance was approved to offer the cover, protects buyers against major structural or waterproofing defects for ten years post-completion. Unlike traditional statutory warranties, it operates as a first-resort policy, if a covered defect arises, the insurer responds directly, without the buyer needing to pursue the builder or developer through a lengthy claims process.

Resilience Insurance CEO Corey Nugent has noted that the product addresses something fundamental to the new apartment market.

"The overarching feedback from prospective buyers in the new development space is that they want more confidence and assurances around the quality of the build," Nugent says.

"Resilience Insurance Latent Defects Insurance not only gives them complete peace of mind for 10 years, but it shows the developer they are buying from is standing by their product."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150499 project_image_fid=370898]

For Solis, the Resilience LDI policy adds a meaningful layer of accountability to an already considered project. The development comprises nine two-bedroom and seven three-bedroom residences, including one dual-level three-bedroom apartment, across a five-storey building on Ewos Parade, positioned between Shelly Beach and South Cronulla.

Garden apartments connect directly to private landscaped courtyards, while upper-level homes capture beach views to the east from level four and above.&nbsp;

All 16 residences include at least one balcony or courtyard, and select apartments on the upper floors feature bar areas and secondary flexible living spaces.

Hiba Sander, Managing Director of Skymark, says Solis offers a rare balance, nestled between the quiet beauty of secluded beaches and the lively charm of South Cronulla's esplanade.

"It's a place to choose your pace and live gracefully, seaside'," Sander says.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150499 project_image_fid=370900]

The architecture, designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ida-design-group">IDA Design Group</a>'s Michael Trinh, draws from the natural erosion patterns of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/cronulla-nsw-2230">Cronulla</a>'s sandstone headlands, translating the organic forms of the coastline into soft curves, pavilion-style massing, and a material palette chosen for longevity in a salt-tinged environment.&nbsp;

Textured natural stone, soft renders, and timber-look battens reference the tones of the surrounding cliffs, while the building has been oriented to maximise natural light and passive ventilation, with primary living spaces facing north and east to capture morning sun and sea breezes.

"At Solis, our aim was to create architecture that feels quietly confident, grounded in natural materials like stone and timber, and elevated by light and landscape," Trinh says.&nbsp;

"The buildings are designed to sit gently within their coastal surrounds, with expansive glazing and abundant greenery creating a seamless dialogue between inside and out."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150499 project_image_fid=370897]

Interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/hot-black">Hot Black</a> carry the same material language through to every room. Kitchens feature integrated Gaggenau appliances, sculpted stone benchtops, and Lo &amp; Co joinery, while bathrooms feature natural stone, timber, and brushed metal finishes.&nbsp;

Hot Black Founder and Design Director Sophie Safrin describes the intent as one of considered restraint: "At Solis, every detail has been thoughtfully considered to create a timeless coastal retreat, calm, refined, and effortlessly liveable. From natural finishes to seamless indoor-outdoor flow, Solis offers a quiet elegance that's deeply connected to its surroundings.

The landscape, designed by Julian Brady of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/sitedesignstudios">Site Design Studios</a>, treats green space as an integral part of the resident experience rather than an afterthought.&nbsp;

"Gentle curves and layered native plantings mirror the ebb and flow of the ocean," Julian Brady says, "creating a serene connection between architecture and place."&nbsp;

Coco Republic has provided bespoke furniture packages tailored to the project's coastal palette.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150499 project_image_fid=370899]

Skymark has an established track record in the Sutherland Shire, with a portfolio spanning Cronulla, Woolooware and Burraneer that includes Isla, Sylva, Bask, Shells, Sula and Mist. Securing LDI on Solis reflects a broader shift in how the developer is positioning its buildings to buyers, at a time when Resilience Insurance expects the policy to become mandatory in New South Wales by 2028.

Sales at Solis are launching soon through Ray White Projects, with an official event scheduled for 11 June. Enquire for more information.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150499]

Skymark takes out 10-year Resilience Insurance LDI at Solis Cronulla

Finder.com.au

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A panelist of experts in Finder's RBA survey are divided about honeymoon rates for home loan borrowers. 
Nearly 90 percent of experts in the Finder survey expect the next cash rate move to be in an upward direction. All 30 members of the RBA survey predicted a September rate hold.
Finder.com.au insights manager Graham Cooke said the cash rate is likely to remain at 1.5 percent for the remainder of the year, and part of 2019.
“It’s widely believed the cash rate will remain stagnant for some time now, but this hasn’t stopped lenders from lifting rates independently of the Reserve Bank, which we witnessed late last week.
“Westpac and Suncorp were among the first banks to increase home loan rates in response to offshore funding pressures, and many are keeping an eagle eye on the market for further announcements to come,” he said. 
Nearly 40 percent of survey respondents expect a rate rise in the second quarter of 2019, while 25 percent think rates will rise in the fourth quarter of 2019.
There were 20 percent that think rates will hold until 2020.
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Here’s what the experts had to say: 
Jordan Eliseo, ABC Bullion: ​"The RBA will hold interest rates at 1.50% at their next meeting, continuing a run of stability that now dates back over 2 years. Consumer confidence has been hit by the recent political chaos in Canberra, and job growth in the economy will likely slow down in the lead up to the next election, but the RBA is still reticent to cut, despite numerous headwinds the economy is facing." 
Tim Nelson, AGL Energy: ​"RBA has stated that it continues to expect inflation to be around 21⁄4 per cent over the next couple of years as above-trend GDP growth reduces spare capacity in the labour market and there is an associated pick-up in wages growth." 
Shane Oliver, AMP Capital: ​"While economic growth picked up a notch in the first half of the year its premature to start raising rates as uncertainty remains around the outlook for consumer spending, the housing cycle both in terms of construction and home prices has now turned down, and wages growth and inflation remain low. So remaining on hold makes sense and this is likely to remain the case for some time to come." 
Alison Booth, ANU: ​"Fundamentals have not changed sufficiently to warrant changing the cash rate." 
Richard Robinson, BIS Oxford Economics: ​"inflation and wages growth is low." 
Paul Dales, Capital Economics:​ "The RBA is patiently waiting to see if the unemployment rate falls as it is hoping and inflation rises back to the 2-3% target rate. I suspect it will be waiting for a long time yet." 
Saul Eslake, Corinna Economic Advisory: ​"The RBA has made it clear that although it thinks the next move in interest rates will most likely be up, it is in no hurry to act on that inclination. And nothing has happened since the last meeting to have prompted them to change that view." 
Peter Gilmore, Gateway Bank: ​"The economic fundamentals remain largely unchanged." Mark Brimble, Griffith Uni:​ "No reason to move with inherent weakness in the economy 
exacerbated by political and regulatory uncertainty both domestically and internationally." 
Peter Haller, Heritage Bank: ​"There is no reason for the RBA to change rates at the present time." 
Paul Bloxham , HSBC Bank Australia Limited​: "Inflation is still below the target band." 
Alex Joiner, IFM Investors: ​"The RBA finds itself between a rock and a hard place, the economy does not as yet justify higher policy rates, but equally it can not foster any better conditions that might see inflation accelerate more quickly because of the financial stability constraints it has, rightly in my view, it has also chosen to focus on." 
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Michael Witts, ING Bank: ​"Despite the increase in mortgage rates from one of the majors, this is unlikely to alter the RBA stance." 
Leanne Pilkington, Laing+Simmons:​ "There’s no compelling reason for the RBA to adjust the official cash rate at this time. Of greater interest is the approach the banks are taking with their lending terms. Some are cutting fixed rates in an attempt to build market share. Honeymoon interest rate deals are in vogue to attract first home buyer attention, but it’s necessary to crunch repayment numbers based on the actual rate you’ll be paying once the honeymoon is over. There’s significant rate movement irrespective of the RBA at the moment." 
Nicholas Gruen, Lateral Economics:​ "That's what they keep saying they'll do." 
Mathew Tiller, LJ Hooker:​ "No major changes to economic conditions over the past months will see RBA hold the cash rate steady. In addition banks and lenders continue to change their interest rates independently of the RBA." 
Michael Yardney, Metropole Property Strategists: ​"There is no reason to alter interest rates. Our weakening housing markets, low inflation rate and soft wages growth suggest no rise in rates is imminent in the medium term. If anything this would dampen already sluggish consumer confidence which has already taken a hit over the last month." 
Mark Crosby, Monash University: ​"The RBA has signalled its intent to hold rates for some months yet, though it is good to see some discussion about whether the current inflation target remains appropriate." 
Dr Andrew Wilson, My Housing Market:​ "Macro environment relatively unchanged although out of cycle rate rises will be closely monitored by RBA if the level of increases impacts already constrained consumption." 
Alan Oster, NAB: ​"The RBA has stated that for the time being, they wish to be a source of stability and confidence in the economy. Rates are low and supporting economic growth which should see employment continue to grow and the unemployment rate decline further. At present there appears to be some degree of spare capacity in the labour market with relatively weak wages growth and inflation only just around the bottom of the RBA’s target band. The RBA is likely to continue this on this track until it is convinced spare capacity has fallen, wages growth is lifting and inflation rising more generally. This is only expected to occur gradually." 
Jonathan Chancellor, Property Observer:​ "The central bank doesn't need to make any move." 
Matthew Peter, QIC:​ "While the RBA is clearly on hold for the time being, the market is not pricing a rate hike until 2020. But with growth picking up, the labour market tightening and 
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the AUD heading to US70c, the RBA will surprise markets with a rate hike, probably as soon as the June quarter of 2019." 
Noel Whittaker, QUT:​ "No reason to move either way." Nerida Conisbee, REA Group: ​"The next move is still likely to be an increase but for now, the 
economy is not strong enough to start increasing." 
Christine Williams, Smarter Property Investing Pty Ltd:​ "We have had a positive effect re unemployment , now under 6% together with a strong outlook in the job sector, both with full time and part time positions. I feel this needs to stay on an upward trend [for] least 1 more quarter before the Reserve Bank increases rates." 
Janu Chan, St.George Bank: ​"Ongoing low inflation and expectations it will stay low for some time allows the RBA room to leave rates on hold." 
Brian Parker, Sunsuper:​ "Still plenty of labour market slack, and wage and price inflation not picking up anywhere near fast enough to prompt higher rates." 
Richard Holden, UNSW:​ "They should cut but they can't. [the] labor market is weak. Inflation is low." 
Clement Tisdell, UQ-School of Economics:​ "The Australian economy is not overheated. Demand pull inflation is not at work. Cost push could become a problem. Private interest rates are liable to increase." 
Other participants:​ Bill Evans, Westpac. 
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Very few predictions for rate rise before 2019: Finder

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Australia’s top economists were united in forecasting the cash rate would be held at the July cash rate meeting.
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Here’s what the experts had to say: 
Jordan Eliseo, ABC Bullion: ​"The RBA's view on monetary policy is clearly changing, with a more dovish tone at the very least pushing back the timeframe for rate hikes, if not already opening the door to an eventual rate cut, which is still our base case in the coming months. Growth figures and employment levels are still reasonable though, so they'll continue to take a "wait and see" approach for now." 
Tim Nelson, AGL Energy:​ "No change in underlying data from previous month." 
Shane Oliver, AMP Capital: ​"There is no strong case to move either way just now. Signs that mining investment may bottoming, strengthening non-mining investment, surging infrastructure spending and rising export volumes all argue against a rate cut but peaking housing investment, uncertainty around consumer spending, continuing weak wages growth and inflation, falling Sydney and Melbourne property prices, tightening bank lending standards and global uncertainty around trade all argue against a hike. So it’s best for the RBA to remain on hold - for the 23rd month in a row." 
Alison Booth, ANU:​ "Fundamentals don't yet warrant any change."
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Malcolm Wood, Baillieu Holst: ​"Inflation at low-end of band; housing market rolling over; consumption uncertainties." 
Richard Robinson, BIS Oxford Economics:​ "There are no inflationary pressures, while house prices are now undergoing an orderly and much needed downward adjustment." 
Paul Dales, Capital Economics: ​"There are still very few signs that inflation is going to rise back to the middle of the RBA's 2-3% target. And more recently, the RBA is becoming more concerned about the hit to the economy from the global trade dispute and domestic Banking Royal Commission." 
Saul Eslake, Corinna Economic Advisory Pty Ltd: ​"The RBA will not have changed its overall view of the outlook for the Australian economy sufficiently to warrant either raising or lowering the cash rate. Economic growth (Q1 GDP) was a bit stronger than the RBA had been anticipating at the last meeting - and is arguably now back to its 'trend' pace. But the RBA's commentary on prospects for wages growth seems to have become a bit more pessimistic." 
Tim Moore, CUA (Credit Union Australia): ​"Until we see a strong trend in unemployment dropping toward the magic 5% level, we will continue to see low level inflation and low wage growth, therefore the RBA remaining on the sidelines. Whilst the RBA have clearly communicated their next move to be up, they have also caveated this with comment that they do not see this anytime soon." 
Peter Gilmore, Gateway Bank Ltd:​ "Key economic fundamentals are still short of the levels the RBA traditionally needs to trigger a rise." 
Peter Haller, Heritage Bank:​ "There is no justification for a rate change at the present time." Shane Garrett, Housing Industry Association:​ "No grounds for monetary intervention in the short term."
Alex Joiner, IFM Investors: ​"Despite good headline economic growth data the RBA clearly requires better wages growth to underpin what is still a weak inflationary pulse, consumer spending and household balance sheets." 
Michael Witts, ING:​ "No change on the horizon from the RBA, the next move will be up built a long way away." 
Leanne Pilkington, Laing+Simmons: ​"The hold pattern remains appropriate in the current climate. Global economic forces, the widening wage gap between older and younger working Australians, and outcomes of the Banking Royal Commission might all impact the RBA’s outlook in the near term, but for now it’s important that interest rates remain steady." 
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Stephen Koukoulas, Market Economics​: "It has told the market it will be on hold until it has more economic information."
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John Caelli, ME: ​"The RBA has indicated they are in no rush to change policy." 
Michael Yardney, Metropole Property Strategists:​ "The RBA will hold interest rates steady because there has been no change to the economic outlook since last month. In fact rates are unlikely to rise until wages rise and that seems quite some way off." 
Mark Crosby, Monash University: ​"RBA has signalled that it will hold for the next few meetings, unless a significant shock hits the economy." 
Dr Andrew Wilson, My Housing Market:​ "There remains no clear case for change, particularly given clearly weakening Sydney and Melbourne housing markets, continuing mixed local economic data and concerns over the global economy and rising trade barriers.” 
Alan Oster, NAB:​ "Waiting regarding data on wages and the consumer. Need lower unemployment rate. Inflation no pressure yet." 
Matthew Peter, QIC:​ "Philip Lowe has made it quite clear that the Bank will not be raising rates while annual wage growth languishes around 2%. He also has made it clear that there is no chance of a rate cut while household debt and house price remain elevated. The RBA can't cut and they can't hike." 
Nerida Conisbee, REA Group: ​"Businesses are confident but consumers aren't. Until this turns around, I think it is unlikely we will see an interest rate rise." 
Christine Williams, Smarter Property Investing:​ "As much as the housing market has seemed to retract slightly there has been no major impact on the buying pool within the $500-$850K range. This range suits most first home buyers. Our unemployment rate has reduced slightly with the national rate around 6%. Whilst we are at this rate I doubt interest rates will move." 
Janu Chan, St.George Bank:​ "Ongoing strong conditions in the business sector and the high level of public infrastructure spending will support economic activity and employment growth. However, there is ongoing spare capacity in the labour market and wage growth and inflation is expected to remain low." 
Brian Parker, Sunsuper: ​"Growth is improving, but not fast enough to deliver the much needed improvement in labour force underutilisation and wages growth." 
Clement Tisdell, UQ-School of Economics: ​"No significant change in Australia's economic situation."
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Mark Brimble:​ "We're not likely to see a movement for a long time, and the direct of that movement will depend on international markets so it's too early to tell which way it will go."
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Australia's top economists united in RBA rate hold: Finder survey

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Over 40 percent of Finder.com.au experts and economists forecasted a five to six percent price fall in Sydney by the end of 2018
Some of the panellists of the June RBA cash rate survey suggested there could be even bigger falls in the harbour city. 
14 percent predicted falls over six percent.
Only seven percent forecasted rising property prices in Sydney.
23 percent of panellists suggested there will be falls of over six percent in Brisbane over the year.
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Melbourne was forecast for a less extreme price drop with 50% of experts and economists expecting values to dip between ​3% and 4%​. 
Finder.com.au insights manager Graham Cooke says homebuyers may want to consider purchasing in a cooled market. 
“For those mulling over buying their first property, this year could be a good time to snap up a bargain if prices do take a tumble. 
“With some heat removed from the market, cheaper dwelling prices could be a first home buyer’s ticket into the property market. 
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“A cheaper price tag means they’ll have a smaller deposit, meaning they can jump onto the property ladder sooner,” he says. 
The analysis shows Brisbane, Perth and Darwin housing prices are also tipped to fall this year, with no experts or economists indicating a rise in Darwin. 
Brisbane housing price are most likely to plummet with 23% of respondents forecasting a fall of over 6%, which is the greatest predicted fall among the capital cities. 
“This is also good news for those looking to buy in Brisbane, but things won’t be as peachy for sellers in the Sunshine State,” Mr Cooke says. 
On the other hand, Adelaide and Hobart were identified as growth markets among the panel with 55% of respondents estimating 1-2% growth in Adelaide, while a combined 72% are forecasting Hobart prices to lift by 1-2% or 3-4%. 
“The quieter cities of Adelaide and Hobart could be hot spots for investors wanting to unlock capital growth, or for homebuyers looking to put their property on the market,” he says.
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Here’s what the Finder.com.au experts had to say: 
Jordan Eliseo, ABC Bullion: ​"The RBA will keep rates steady at their upcoming meeting, though we remain convinced the next move will be an interest rate cut. Local economic data remains soft at best, whilst fears over house price declines, and a more subdued environment for private sector credit growth continue to build, fuelled by some of the more troubling revelations from the Banking Royal Commission. The positive narrative around accelerating global growth is also starting to fade, with political uncertainty in Italy (and by extension Europe) unlikely to help." 
Tim Nelson, AGL Energy:​ "Previous meeting indicated that there wasn't a strong case for near-term adjustment." 
Shane Oliver, AMP Capital: ​"Basically nothing has changed. Signs of stronger investment, booming infrastructure spending, strong export volumes and the RBA’s own forecasts argue against a cut but uncertainty around consumer spending, the slowing Sydney and Melbourne property markets, tightening bank lending standards and the slowing Sydney and Melbourne property markets argue against a hike. So no case to move!" 
Alison Booth, ANU: ​"Fundamentals haven’t yet changed sufficiently to warrant altering the interest-rate." 
John Hewson, ANU: ​"No clear evidence to support a tightening especially given household debt." 
Jonathan Chancellor, Property Observer:​ "The RBA won't be wanting to use its lever quite yet, as the economy is in a challenging state of transition. " 
Malcolm Wood, Baillieu Holst:​ "Sluggish domestic economic data and inflation at the low end of the target range." 
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Paul Dales, Capital Economics:​ "Economic conditions are not strong enough to warrant higher rates and the RBA is becoming concerned that the Banking Royal Commission will result in some households and businesses finding it harder to get credit. The RBA won't want to raise the price of credit at the same time." 
Saul Eslake, Corinna Economic Advisory: ​"Data releases since the last Board meeting are unlikely to have changed the Board's belief that it will be some time before spare capacity in the labour market has declined sufficiently, and economic growth picked up sufficiently, to warrant taking the first step back towards more 'normal' monetary policy settings." 
Peter Gilmore, Gateway Bank Ltd: ​"Some of the fundamentals are beginning to show signs of lining up, but it's still too soon to move." 
Mark Brimble, Griffith Uni: ​"Nothing has sufficiently changed." Peter Haller, Heritage Bank:​ "Market conditions do not warrant a change. The RBA is 
comfortably on hold for the foreseeable future." 
Shane Garrett, Housing Industry Association: ​"The economy is gathering pace in some areas without generating an increase in inflation - this means that no change in the RBA's cash rate is warranted for the moment." 
Alex Joiner, IFM Investors: ​"There's been no shift in the economic outlook - this is particularly true in the labour market where spare capacity remains and therefore no meaningful acceleration of wages growth should be expected. In this way population growth remaining strong is a double-edged sword for the RBA in so far as it supports economic growth but keeps the unemployment rate from declining. Indeed the RBA does not expect full employment to be achieved over its forecast horizon." 
Michael Witts, ING:​ "The RBA has indicated that rates will remain on hold for an extended period." 
Leanne Pilkington, Laing+Simmons:​ "The housing market, from a number of key indicator perspectives, has peaked. Prices in select pockets are easing, clearance rates have dropped, and residential building approvals for April showed a 5% decline, which is more pronounced than most expected. So we’re seeing the market correct at the moment, but in a sustainable, soft-landing way. Raising interest rates prematurely could jeopardise this soft landing, so we expect the RBA to continue the hold pattern." 
Mathew Tiller, LJ Hooker:​ "There has been no material change in indicators since last month. Property price growth continues to moderate which will be welcome by the RBA. Investor demand has eased with owner occupiers and first home buyers coming back into the market to fill the gap." 
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Stephen Koukoulas, Market Economics:​ "It remains the case that the RBA is downplaying the news of falling house prices, rising unemployment rate, weak wages and inflation. It should cut rates but it won't." 
John Caelli, ME: ​"The RBA will want to see inflation and wages improve and lower unemployment before making any changes." 
Michael Yardney, Metropole: ​"There's no reason to change rates. Jobs growth rebounded strongly last month but not enough to stop the jobless rate rising to a 9 month high of 5.6% keeping wages pressure low and rates won't rise until wages start growing." 
Mark Crosby, Monash University: ​"The RBA is likely to remain on hold for the next few months unless wages growth and inflation strengthen. Moderation in asset price growth also lessens the probability of a rate rise." 
Jacqueline Dearle, Mortgage Choice: ​"The RBA's decision to hold would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy, home loan demand remaining stable, and achieving the inflation target over time." 
Dr Andrew Wilson, My Housing Market: ​"Most recent relevant economic data continues to support steady rates and the Banks conservative stance on monetary policy. Rising spectre of a tariff enhanced-trade war however may require action to lower the AUD which would mean lower official rates.” 
Alan Oster, NAB: ​"Watching for signs of better wages and labour market outcomes. Inflation still low." 
Matthew Peter, QIC:​ "The rosy global economic backdrop is coming under pressure. Slowing growth momentum, Italian political chaos, uncertainty over Korea, and emerging-market instability in the face of rising interest rates and USD are eroding confidence in the global economy. Domestically, we have the Banking Royal Commission casting a shadow over credit growth. In the face of rising uncertainties, RBA will have not have to think twice before remaining on hold." 
Noel Whittaker, QUT: ​"There is no compelling reason to increase them – and they certainly won't be reducing them." 
Nerida Conisbee, REA Group:​ "The economy still isn't growing fast enough for the RBA to start moving rates upwards to slow it down." 
Christine Williams, Smarter Property Investing: ​"Employment has stabilized. APRA's recommendations have been accepted and rolled out to all major funders." 
Janu Chan, St.George Bank:​ "Low inflation, ongoing spare capacity, downside risks to housing and the household sector suggests RBA will remain on hold for some time.” 
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Clement Tisdell, UQ-School of Economics:​ "The statements of the bank." 
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House prices to tumble in 2018, but two cities may buck the trend: Finder

<html><body>The cash rate is likely to remain untouched at the next board meeting tomorrow (01/04/2018), but increased rates from the US Federal Reserve may trigger out-of-cycle rate hikes within the Australian lending market, according to <a href="https://finder.us9.list-manage.com/track/click?u=cc5e9bce699fa1d71a67cf499&amp;id=3dd987276e&amp;e=58cd8ffd03" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">finder.com.au</a> research. When asked to predict the cash rate decision for May 2018, 97% (29/30) members of the <a href="https://finder.us9.list-manage.com/track/click?u=cc5e9bce699fa1d71a67cf499&amp;id=c608319a35&amp;e=58cd8ffd03" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">finder.com.au RBA survey</a> forecast no change. Experts and economists believe a mixed economic climate and low inflation are the main catalysts behind this expected monetary policy decision.  Eighty-seven percent of economists who weighed in on the direction of the next rate move believe the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will push the cash rate upwards. Economists were also asked to indicate exactly when the next cash rate change may happen.  Graham Cooke, Insights Manager at finder.com.au, says the estimated time of a rate movement is creeping forward. “Of the seventeen economists who specified a date for an upward rate movement, fourteen of them (82%) don't expect this to happen until 2019.” “We could be looking at a stagnant cash rate for the rest of the year, at least,” he says. An Australian online bank recently lifted interest rates out-of-cycle for owner-occupiers and investors, citing increased funding costs as a result of rising US interest rates. When asked about this, most panellists (14, 78%) from the survey are expecting other banks to follow suit. “Increased international lending costs may force banks to increase rates for home loan customers out-of-cycle, even if the cash rate doesn’t budge. “The days of super-low interest may be over for borrowers sooner than expected. “Brace yourself for out-of-cycle rate hikes, especially if the US Federal Reserve lifts rates again,” Mr Cooke says. When considering the broader economic outlook, household debt was pinpointed as an area of concern in finder’s Economic Sentiment Tracker. Of the 17 panellists who participated, none had a positive outlook for household debt.  In fact, 53% of respondents reported a negative outlook on household debt. “With household debt at an all-time high, this does not bode well for stressed borrowers,” Mr Cooke says. On the other hand, the highest percentage of positive sentiment was given to employment (60%) followed by wage growth (35%) and housing affordability (21%). “This optimism for future employment has likely been fostered by government support. “Employment was a key part of the 2017-18 budget with a focus on helping disadvantaged members of society such as parents, Indigenous Australians and older people, find employment opportunities. “Initiatives such as ParentsNext and Closing the Gap are two examples of this, and it’s likely employment and job creation will remain a central theme in the 2018-19 budget, due to be released next Tuesday (08/05/2018),” Mr Cooke says. Here’s what our experts had to say: Jordan Eliseo, ABC Bullion (Hold): "The RBA will keep the cash rate steady at 1.50% at their next meeting. Inflation is soft, property prices are easing, and employment growth looks to be slowing down, so we are still of a view that the next move will be a cut, though this will take some time to come through." Shane Oliver, AMP Capital (Hold): "Strong business conditions and employment, rising non-mining investment, strong global growth and the RBA's own forecasts argue against a cut but low inflation and wages growth, risks around the outlook for consumer spending, the slowing Sydney and Melbourne property markets and tightening bank lending standards argue against a hike. So the RBA is likely to remain on hold." Alison Booth, ANU (Hold): " The fundamentals do not yet justify a change." John Hewson, ANU (Hold): "Economy still mixed Household debt constraint" Malcolm Wood, Baillieu Holst (Hold): "Muddle-through economy, inflation at low end of target band" Paul Dales, Capital Economics (Hold): "Economic growth and inflation still aren't strong enough to warrant higher interest rates" Michael Blythe, CBA (Hold): "Inflation is low, the downtrend in unemployment appears to have stalled and the RBA is emphasising ‘patience’." Saul Eslake, Corinna Economic Advisory (Hold): "None of the data released since the last meeting, nor anything else that has occurred since then, will have altered the RBA's assessment of the economic outlook sufficiently to prompt a change in its view that current monetary policy settings are appropriate for the time being." Peter Gilmore, Gateway Bank (Hold): "The RBA knows that pressure from home price rises is beginning to stabilise, however, it's still too soon to move on the cash rate with so many borrowers heavily exposed to rising rates and inflation still low." Mark Brimble, Griffith Uni (Hold): "Insufficient traction or momentum in the economy to consider any tightening for the year" Shane Garrett, Housing Industry Association (Hold): "No real inflationary pressures, strong jobs market." Alex Joiner, IFM Investors (Hold): "The economy is tracking along the RBA's own projections, however, private demand is picking up only gradually and consequently inflationary pressures remain modest. Further strong labour market outcomes have not as yet prompted a discernible acceleration of broad-based wages growth that would underpin an inflationary pulse. The RBA has little cause to shift its policy stance as a result. " Michael Witts, ING Bank (Hold): "Month on month no significant changes to require changes in policy rate." Leanne Pilkington, Laing+Simmons (Hold): "The fundamentals have remained relatively static, meaning the RBA has no impetus to adjust interest rates at this time. There’s a strong argument to leave the cash rate unchanged for the foreseeable future given stagnant house prices, the marked drop in investor lending and other macro challenges to the economy, especially when the banks cannot be trusted not to hike rates independently." Mathew Tiller, LJ Hooker (Hold): "Inflation and wages growth remain too soft to see any movement in the cash rate." John Caelli, ME (Hold): "The RBA will want to see inflation and wages improve and lower unemployment before making any changes." Michael Yardney, Metropole Property Strategists (Hold): "RBA  Governor Philip Lowe has warned the next shift in the official cash rate will be up rather than down, but there is no reason for this to occur until there is a pick up in economic growth and wages. Both of these are likely to be gradual so there is no case for any near-term change in policy." Mark Crosby, Monash University (Hold): "The RBA have signaled that they will keep rates at low levels for a while longer, but that the next move is likely to be upwards." Jacqueline Dearle, Mortgage Choice (Hold): "When the economy can better absorb the impact of an increase and inflation is at 2% or near that target level, Gov Lowe will lift the rate." Dr Andrew Wilson, My Housing Market (Increase): "Latest data remains neutral for the current setting environment with ABS March quarter CPI still clearly underwhelming. Predictable end to APRA market manipulation reflects generally moderated housing market activity so RBA can concentrate on main macro game." Alan Oster, NAB (Hold): "Too early to change. Waiting on data regarding wages and unemployment." Matthew Peter, QIC (Hold): "After the tepid March quarter CPI report and the ongoing slowdown in the housing market, the RBA can park monetary policy into 2019." Noel Whittaker, QUT (Hold): "Won't drop them - property prices flat - why move." Nerida Conisbee, REA Group (Hold): "Although momentum seems to be slowly building in the Australian economy, it still isn't at a point where interest rates will start to increase. We are now running at quite a different speed to large parts of the rest of the world - our time will come but it is taking lot longer than expected." Christine Williams, Smarter Property Investing P/L (Hold): "Even with unemployment reducing and the positiveness within the business sector, and the slowing of the housing market in many states I feel with the Royal Commission at is peak and the findings that have been released the RBA Reserve Bank would be very courageous to increase interest rates at the present." Janu Chan, St.George Bank (Hold): "The RBA has explicitly stated that the next move is likely to be up, but given that spare capacity remains in the labour market, wage growth continues to be subdued and inflation pressure muted a hike is not likely to occur for some time." Brian Parker, Sunsuper (Hold): "Nothing in the recent data to force them to adjust rates one way or the other.  Still enough labour market slack to keep them from raising rates, and they've made it clear they would be very reluctant to ease at this point."</body></html>

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Increased international lending costs may force banks to increase rates for home loan customers out-of-cycle

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<div>Most market onlookers believe the cash rate will remain static at the April board meeting, but just two 25-basis-point rate rises is all it could take before some ‘risky’ mortgage holders lose grip of their repayments, according to new finder.com.au research.</div>
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Thirty one of the 32 (97%) panellists from the finder.com.au RBA survey are expecting the rate to remain on hold, with one respondent (Mark Crosby from Monash University) forecasting a rise to 1.75%. Eighty-three percent (24 of 29) of experts and economists believe the next rate move will be an increase, while the remainder of the panel believe the Reserve Bank will stay in the cutting cycle. Finder’s new Economic Sentiment Tracker, which was introduced to the survey last month, has found household debt to be the number one area of concern for the majority (55%) of panellists. Graham Cooke, insights manager at finder.com.au, says household debt is still a struggle for many Australians.
“Mortgage repayments are king of household debt, but other costs like personal loans and credit card repayments also comprise a large chunk of household debt — and they roll in like clockwork.
“Running costs like electricity and gas can also quickly deplete household savings,” he says.
Employment is viewed with optimism among the experts and economists (65%) while the panellists mostly felt neutral (50%) or negative (15%) about the nation’s wage growth.
Thirty percent of panellists expressed negative sentiment toward cost of living.
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UBS Wealth Management Australia recently released a report saying 18% of the home loan market included fraudulent details on their applications. With this in mind, panelists were asked how many 25-basis-point rate increases it would take before mortgage holders started defaulting.
In response to this, 56% of experts believe up to two rate increases could cause the “risky” end of the market to default on their repayments.
Thirty-nine percent think two cash rate increases would be enough to throw homeowners into default, while a further 17% said just one rate increase would put fraudulent borrowers in a precarious position.
According to recent data, Sydney’s auction clearance rates (ACR) have fallen from 73.7% in August 2017 to 63.8% on March 2018, hitting a low of 57.5% in February 2018.
Panellists were asked if clearance rates will fall below 50% in 2018. Most respondents (13 of the 20 who opted in to this question) said they don’t expect to see Sydney ACRs fall below 50%.
“We’ve seen some correction in the Sydney market, with some experts indicating the market may continue to slow and we may see an average clearance rate around the 55% mark,” Mr Cooke says.
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Here’s what the experts had to say: 
Jordan Eliseo, ABC Bullion (Hold):"The RBA will continue with their current monetary policy settings, though recent data will have dented their confidence regarding the outlook for employment, inflation and overall economic growth. We remain of the view that their next move will be a cut to the cash rate, particularly if house price weakness continues, but this will take time to play out."
Tim Nelson, AGL Energy (Hold):"No material changes to outlook since March. "
Shane Oliver, AMP Capital (Hold):"High business confidence, strong jobs growth and the RBA's own growth and inflation forecasts argue against a rate cut, but risks around consumer spending, weak wages growth and inflation, the slowing Sydney and Melbourne property markets and the still too high $A argue against a rate hike."
Alison Booth, ANU (Hold): "The fundamentals don’t want any change."
John Hewson, ANU (Hold):"[The RBA] simply can't move given level of household debt. The economy is still mixed."
Malcolm Wood, Baillieu Holst (Hold):"Inflation below target range, Moderate growth, global volatility."
Paul Dales, Capital Economics (Hold):"There are still no real signs that inflation is heading back up to the middle of the 2-3% target range, so interest rates need to stay low to give it a bit of a boost."
Saul Eslake, Corinna Economic Advisory (Hold):"Nothing has materially changed since the RBA last stated that current monetary policy settings were (in its opinion) appropriate. There’s been no new data on price or wage inflation; and the most recent labour force data suggests that the margin of spare capacity in the labour market remains unchanged, despite ongoing strong employment growth (because most of the new jobs are going to new entrants to the labour force). And the RBA has repeatedly made it clear that it feels under no pressure to follow other central banks in hiking rates."
Peter Gilmore, Gateway Bank (Hold): "The RBA is still concerned about low wages growth and household debt levels."
Mark Brimble, Griffith University (Hold): "Volatility and uncertainty are key factors in the global context and the Australian economy continues to show lackluster performance."
Shane Garrett, Housing Industry Association (Hold):"The current economic environment of strong job creation and fairly weak price pressures does not merit a change in monetary policy from the RBA at this time."
Alex Joiner , IFM Investors (Hold):"There is no material change in the outlook. The labour market continues to perform well however economic activity nor consumer price/wages inflation justifies a near term adjustment of policy."
Michael Witts, ING (Hold):"The RBA will keep rates unchanged as it is looking for the economy to gather further momentum."
Leanne Pilkington, Laing+Simmons (Hold):“The residential housing market, and the economy generally, requires the steady interest rate environment to continue. Employment growth has been encouraging but tempered by flattened wage growth, while house price growth is also subdued and clearance rates are solid if unspectacular. It amounts to a prudent case of the RBA leaving rates as is."
Nicholas Gruen, Lateral Economics (Hold): "The economy has spare capacity and the bank doesn't want to cut – even though for a long time it should have."
Mathew Tiller, LJ Hooker (Hold):"The global economy has continued to show signs of improvement, despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. In Australia, the economy remains on a steady footing with business confidence and employment improving. However, this is yet to flow through the increased wages or consumer prices. Housing markets across the country continue to remain active with listings numbers increasing and auction clearance rates sitting just below the long-term average. More properties on the market for sale has provided more choice for buyers and when combined with the moderation of investor demand has led to a slowdown in price growth. In weighing up these variables, it is likely that the RBA will keep the cash rate at the record low of 1.50% over the short-term."
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Marie Mortimer, loans.com.au (Hold):"We are speaking to a lot of borrowers who are refinancing with loans.com.au for a cheaper rate than traditional lenders because they are conscious of their household budget. The RBA are also aware of the impact on a rate rise to household budgets and we believe that rates will remain on hold in the short term due to the relatively low inflation rate and weak economic sentiment." 
Stephen Koukoulas, Market Economics (Hold): "The RBA is unable to get away from its obsession with non-existant financial instability. It should be cutting rates" 
John Caelli, ME (Hold): "The RBA has flagged they are in no hurry in increasing rates. They want to see inflation increase, a pick-up in wages and lower unemployment before they consider putting up rates again." 
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Michael Yardney, Metropole (Hold):"Despite an increasing divergence with overseas rates, the RBA will keep official rates at their historic low of 1.5% because of spare capacity in our employment markets. While the Australian economy added 17,500 jobs in February, strong population growth and increased labour-force participation meant the official unemployment rate crept up a notch from 5.5% to 5.6%."
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Mark Crosby, Monash University (Increase):"Despite ‘The Donald’s’ attempts to trash the world economy, the case for the RBA raising is now very strong." 
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Christopher Schade, MyState (Hold): "With wages growth subdued and inflation well contained; there is no need for the RBA to rush to raise rates. We would not be surprised to see the RBA on hold for much, if not all of CY 2018." 
Alan Oster, nab (Hold): "No increase until we get better wages and more consumer activity." Jonathan Chancellor, Property Observer (Hold): "More time and confidence is needed before any rate rise."
Matthew Peter, QIC (Hold): "No inflation to speak of, tepid growth, slowing housing market and an unsettled global outlook give the RBA more than enough reasons to remain on hold." 
Noel Whittaker, QUT (Hold):"Housing not rising - markets wobbly - no reason to move." Nerida Conisbee, REA Group (Hold): "Economy still isn't strong enough." 
Christine Williams, Smarter Property Investing (Hold):"Unemployment figures have reduced slightly across most states, however individual debt has increased per capita. Banks are continuing to tighten their policy to be in line with responsible lending with owner occupier and investment property loans, thus reducing their overall risk in the property segment." 
Besa Deda, St George Bank (Hold):“The inflation outlook does not warrant a near term rate increase from the RBA.” 
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Brian Parker, Sunsuper (Hold): "Labour market and inflation developments aren't robust enough to warrant any near term tightening, and the RBA is clearly unwilling to ease to boost growth. On hold for a long time!" 
Clement Tisdell, UQ-School of Economics (Hold):"No reason for a change." 
Bill Evans, Westpac (Hold):"Unlike the “immediate” Trump fiscal stimulus the AustralianGovernment is adopting a more structured, cautious approach."
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No RBA change says Finder.com.au experts

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Each of Finder.com.au's 33 experts predicted a cash rate hold at today's 2.30 RBA announcement.
Here’s what some of them had to say:
Jordan Eliseo, ABC Bullion (Hold): ​"There remains no compelling reason for the RBA to move the dial when it comes to interest rates. Employment data, business conditions and overall growth figures are solid, though there seems no obvious catalyst to turn around record low wage growth, whilst a slowing property market will inevitably weigh on confidence. We remain of the view that the next move in rates will be a reduction."
Tim Nelson, AGL Energy (Hold): ​"RBA has stated that the process of inflation returning to target will be gradual."
Shane Oliver, AMP Capital (Hold):​ "High levels of business confidence, strong jobs growth and the RBA’s forecasts for stronger growth and inflation point to eventual rate hikes. But against this, continuing very weak wages growth, sub-target inflation, the $A remaining too high and uncertainty around the outlook for consumer spending all argue for rates to remain on hold or even fall. So on balance it makes sense to continue to leave interest rates on hold."
Alison L Booth, ANU (Hold):​ "The fundamentals have remained fairly steady."
Malcolm Wood, Baillieu Holst (Hold):​ "Inflation below target band; mixed indicators."
Richard Robinson, BIS Oxford Economics (Hold):​ "Price and wages inflation still low, so no pressures yet. RBA has a large buffer between rising US rates and local rates, so there is no hurry to raise rates. Although A$ is still a bit high for RBA's comfort, the Bank is still reluctant to cut rates, because it fears it would re-ignite property prices."
Paul Dales, Capital Economics (Hold): ​"The RBA has said that there is not a strong case for a near-term adjustment in interest rates (i.e. a hike) as inflation is going to rise to the 2-3% target only slowly."
Michael Blythe, CBA (Hold): ​"RBA is emphasising patience and gradualism with respect to rates."
Saul Eslake, Corinna Economic Advisory (Hold): ​"Nothing has happened since the February meeting (and the publication of the February SoMP) to prompt the RBA to change its evaluation of the appropriateness of current monetary policy settings."
Peter Gilmore, Gateway Bank (Hold): ​"Still insufficient wages and price growth to force the RBA's hand."
Scott Morgan, Greater Bank (Hold):​ "Economic data does not yet support a shift"
Shane Garrett, Housing Industry Association (Hold): ​"Inflation and economic growth do not require intervention." Alex Joiner, IFM Investors (Hold): ​"There is no economic reason to shift rates and the outlook has not been altered by any deviation in the recent solid data flow."
Andrew Wilson, Independent economist (Hold):​ "We are experiencing a benign environment for interest rate movements either up or down. After APRA regulations restricting the availability of loans to investors, we actually saw rates for owner occupier loans fall – the difference between owner occupier and investor loans is now smaller than ever. APRA are starting to make noises that they are satisfied that the market has stabilised. We’re likely to see a flat year for interest rates."
Michael Witts, ING (Hold): ​"The RBA is happy for the current momentum in the economy to continue to run. Inflation remains under control and wages inflation is yet to emerge." Leanne Pilkington, Laing+Simmons (Hold):​ "The current interest rate remains appropriate and the fact that the banks themselves are applying tighter lending criteria to their customers demonstrates the potential impact a rate rise too soon may have. It’s a precarious position requiring a steady low environment in the near term."
Nicholas Gruen, Lateral Economics (Hold): ​"It has flagged that it's not in a hurry to raise rates." Mathew Tiller, LJ Hooker (Hold):​ "No discernible change from last month. Employment continue to remain strong, however, wage growth and inflation remain soft. Property markets have seen prices begin to soften, thanks to an increase in listings and a moderation in investor demand." John Caelli, ME (Hold): ​"The RBA has already indicated it will hold the cash rate until key economic indicators improve."
Michael Yardney, Metropole Property Strategists (Hold): ​"While overseas interest rates are likely to rise in the next few months, the RBA Governor has made it clear that Australian rates don't need to be in lock step with overseas rates. There is currently no reason to change rates to either stimulate or slow down our economy."
Mark Crosby, Monash University (Hold):​ "At this point the RBA would be close to raising rates, but probably still waiting for overseas rises to occur and monitoring of financial markets after this happens."
Christopher Schade, MyState Bank (Hold): ​"While the economic outlook has if anything improved in recent times, the economy is far from over-heating, inflation remains well contained, and the Australian dollar arguably remains a tad high. The Reserve Bank will leave rates at their current highly accommodative level for at least the next few months to allow the economy to continue to gather momentum. A rate hike will likely become a more serious consideration later in the year."
Alan Oster, NAB (Hold):​ "Wages data is too weak."
Jonathan Chancellor, Property Observer (Hold): ​"The central bank will be cautiously content with how things are faring, with no need to change the cash rate."
Noel Whittaker, QUT (Hold): ​"Property prices falling – our dollar weakening – no reason to move."
Nathan McMullen, RAMS (Hold): ​"Inflation is within tolerance." Nerida Conisbee, REA Group (Hold): ​"Economy still not strong enough to start increasing."
Janu Chan, St.George Bank (Hold):​ "The next move is more than likely to be higher, and the RBA sees progress towards employment and inflation goals. However, spare capacity still exists within the domestic economy and will therefore hold off from raising interest rates for some time.”
Clement Tisdell, UQ-School of Economics (Hold):​ "Wage growth slow. Exchange rate needs to be lowered somewhat."
Other participants:​ Bill Evans - Westpac (Hold), Stephen Koukoulas - Market Economics (Hold), Paul Bloxham - HSBC Bank Australia Limited (Hold), John Hewson -ANU (Hold).
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

RBA on hold: March's unanimous forecast among tipsters

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The cash rate may have been held for seven consecutive months, but this hasn’t prevented lenders from lifting mortgage rates independently of the Reserve Bank.
There have been 11 lenders including two of the big four banks announcing rate hikes this month, according to finder.com.au, Australia’s most visited comparison website.
A new analysis by finder.com.au reveals 11 lenders have declared rate rises for both variable and fixed home loans in March 2017.
Of the big four banks, ANZ, NAB and Westpac have announced rate changes this year.
While ANZ and NAB announced changes earlier this year, Westpac soon followed suit announcing rate changes just this month.
In March alone, NAB announced further changes with increases to its interest rates from 0.07 percent - 0.25 percent for variable rate home loans, while Westpac also raised its variable rates from 0.03 percent - 0.28 percent.
Despite increasing its variable rate, NAB implemented a new incentive for first home buyers by introducing its lowest home loan fixed rate of 2 years at 3.69 percent per annum.
Westpac is also providing a grace period until the 17th June by waiving the switching fee for interest-only home loans changing to principal and interest repayments. 
The average rate rise for owner-occupier loans in March 2017 across the big four that have adjusted rates (including NAB and Westpac) is 0.05 percent.
Taking this into account, a borrower with an average home loan of $357,200 with an average variable rate of 4.75 percent would need to pay an extra $11 per month if rates rose to 4.80 percent.
This amounts to $3,881 over 30 years.
Graham Cooke, Insights Manager at finder.com.au, says whether it’s to increase flexibility or boost profit margins, banks are under fire to manage stakeholder expectations while also dealing with the risk of an overheated property market.
For investor loans, more stringent regulations imposed by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) to curb investor lending may be prompting banks to up interest rates.
"Given recent rate increases, both owner occupiers and investors need to prepare for higher loan costs.
"It’s sensible to factor in 2-3 percent on top of your current mortgage repayments so you can cope with unexpected rate rises,” he says.
Variable home loan rate changes for March 2017
<table border="1" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="67">
Lender
</td>
<td valign="top" width="81">
Change
</td>
<td valign="top" width="166">
Loans affected
 
</td>
<td valign="top" width="78">
Date effective
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="56">
NAB
</td>
<td width="70">
Up 0.07% - 0.25%
</td>
<td width="156">
Variable Rate Home Loans (owner occupier + investor)
</td>
<td width="68">
24 Mar
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="56">
Westpac
</td>
<td width="70">
Up 0.03% - 0.28%
</td>
<td width="156">
Variable Rate Home Loans (owner occupier + investor and principal &amp; interest + interest only)
</td>
<td width="68">
24 Mar
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="56">
Bankwest
</td>
<td width="70">
Up 0.15%
</td>
<td width="156">
Complete Home Loan Package - Variable (investor), Premium Select Home Loan - Variable (investor) Equaliser Home Loan - Variable (investor)
</td>
<td width="68">
15 Mar
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="56">
Beyond Bank
</td>
<td width="70">
Up 0.10%
</td>
<td width="156">
Low Rate Special Home Loan - Variable (owner occupier)
</td>
<td width="68">
7 Mar
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="56">
Heritage Bank
</td>
<td width="70">
Up 0.10% - 0.11%
</td>
<td width="156">
Advantage Package Home Loan - Variable (owner occupier)
</td>
<td width="68">
14 Mar
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="56">
Illawarra Credit Union
</td>
<td width="70">
Up 0.05% - 0.15%
</td>
<td width="156">
Variable Lite &amp; Variable Home Loans (owner occupier)
</td>
<td width="68">
1 Mar
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="56">
IMB
</td>
<td width="70">
Up 0.05%
</td>
<td width="156">
Accelerator Home Loan - Variable (owner occupier)
</td>
<td width="68">
13 Mar
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="56">
Macquarie Bank
</td>
<td width="70">
Up to 0.05%
</td>
<td width="156">
Basic Home Loan - Variable LVR &lt;=80%, LVR &lt;=90% (owner occupier + investor), Offset Package Home Loan - Variable LVR &lt;=80%, LVR &lt;=90% (owner occupier + investor)
</td>
<td width="68">
6 Mar
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="56">
Macquarie Bank
</td>
<td width="70">
Down 0.05 - 0.10%
</td>
<td width="156">
Basic Home Loan - Variable LVR &lt;=90% (owner occupier), Offset Package Home Loan - Variable LVR &lt;=90% (owner occupier)
</td>
<td width="68">
6 Mar
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="56">
MOVE
</td>
<td width="70">
Up 0.30%
</td>
<td width="156">
Wealth Builder - Variable (investor), Flexi Home Credit - Variable
</td>
<td width="68">
1 Mar
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="56">
People's Choice Credit Union
</td>
<td width="70">
Up 0.19%
</td>
<td width="156">
Basic Home Loan - Variable (owner occupier)
</td>
<td width="68">
15 Mar
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="56">
Western City
</td>
<td width="70">
Up 0.05% - 0.15%
</td>
<td width="156">
Variable Lite &amp; Variable Home Loans (owner occupier)
</td>
<td width="68">
1 Mar
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
 
Fixed home loan rate changes for March 2017
<table style="width: 392px; height: 476px;" border="1" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="67">
Lender
</td>
<td valign="top" width="81">
Change
</td>
<td valign="top" width="166">
Loans affected
 
</td>
<td valign="top" width="79">
Date effective
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="56">
Bankwest
</td>
<td width="70">
Up 0.15%
</td>
<td width="156">
Complete Home Loan Package - 2, 3, 4, 5 Years Fixed (investor), Fixed Rate Home Loan - 2, 3, 4, 5 Years Fixed (investor)
</td>
<td width="68">
15 Mar
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="56">
Beyond Bank
</td>
<td width="70">
Up 0.05% - 0.10%
</td>
<td width="156">
Fixed Rate Home Loan - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 Years Fixed (owner occupier), Total Home Loan Package - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 Years Fixed (owner occupier)
</td>
<td width="68">
7 Mar
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="56">
Heritage Bank
</td>
<td width="70">
Up 0.10%
</td>
<td width="156">
Fixed Rate Home Loan - 1,2,3 (owner occupier + investor), Advantage Package Fixed Rate Home Loan - 1,2,3 (owner occupier + investor)
</td>
<td width="68">
9 Mar
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="56">
IMB
</td>
<td width="70">
Up 0.10%
</td>
<td width="156">
Platinum Package - 2 &amp; 3 Years Fixed rate (owner occupier + investor), Fixed Rate Home Loan - 2 &amp; 3 Years Fixed Rate (owner occupier + investor)
</td>
<td width="68">
6 Mar
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="56">
MOVE
</td>
<td width="70">
Down 0.06%
</td>
<td width="156">
Lockit Home Loan - 1 Year Fixed rate
</td>
<td width="68">
1 Mar
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="56">
People's Choice Credit Union
</td>
<td width="70">
Up 0.05%
</td>
<td width="156">
Home Loan Package - 3 Years Fixed (owner occupier)
</td>
<td width="68">
15 Mar
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
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Out-of-cycle rate hikes shake up the Australian home loan market

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One third of Australians spend over five years saving for a deposit, according to new research commissioned by finder.com.au.
The 2,006 person survey also found the majority of people take 3.7 years to save a deposit on average.
Would-be home buyers from Queensland and New South Wales take nearly four years, or 47 months, to save for a home deposit on average, the highest across the states and territories.
Home buyers in Victoria come in at third place, taking an average of 45 months to save for a deposit.
The median apartment price nationally is $545,000 and most borrowers need a minimum 10 percent deposit, the equivalent to $54,500.
<a href="/images/2016/11/02/State%20by%20state%20breakdown.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/11/02/State%20by%20state%20breakdown.jpg" alt="" width="401" height="460">
Men take slightly longer than women to save for a deposit, according to finder.com.au money expert Bessie Hassan.
On average, women take 43 months (3.6 years) to save for a deposit, while men take 45 months (3.8 years).
Over 11% of Aussies have saved for 10 years or more to have enough funds to complete a deposit.
Prospective home buyers in South Australia take the least time to save for a home deposit, with almost three quarters (72.27%) taking under five years.
“With interest rates at a historic low of 1.5%, first home buyers are madly saving to pursue the Australian dream and break into the property market," Bessie said.
“Although saving for a deposit can require financial discipline and personal sacrifices, it’s not unattainable.
“Set yourself a savings goal and come up with actionable ways to achieve your goal.
"For example, you can boost your savings by cutting back on unnecessary costs such as entertainment or travel expenses, or by consolidating any existing personal debt that you have,” Hassan said.
<a href="/images/2016/11/02/Generation%20breakdown.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/11/02/Generation%20breakdown.jpg" alt="" width="404" height="459">
“For a full documentation loan, however, you should aim to save at least 20% of the purchase price so you don’t have to pay lenders mortgage insurance,” she says.
There are a range of other costs to account for when it comes to buying real estate including legal fees, inspection costs, stamp duty, home loan application or establishment fees, and insurance.
“It’s definitely not a short-term goal for most.
"You have to trim expenses and make sacrifices for many years.
“The next generation of home buyers should be realistic about the length of time it takes to save a deposit as well as the financial commitment required to hold and maintain a property.
“As well as a deposit and upfront costs of purchasing a property, there are also several ongoing charges including periodic mortgage repayments, repairs and maintenance, cleaning, and taxes,” she says.
 
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