A landmark former orphanage site in Surrey Hills could be transformed into a new residential community under plans lodged by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/antipodean-land-developments">Antipodean Land Developments</a> that would deliver 76 apartments and townhouses while restoring some of the suburb's most significant heritage buildings.

The burgeoninng Melbourne-based developer has submitted plans for the 9,158 sqm site at 1 Kent Road and 24 Durham Road, home to the former St Joseph's Home for Destitute Children, a historic institutional complex dating back to the late 19th century. The proposal seeks to adaptively reuse several heritage buildings while introducing two new four-storey residential buildings set within extensive landscaped grounds.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/woods-bagot">Woods Bagot</a> and Kerstin Thompson Architects, the project has been conceived as a contemporary residential village embedded within a restored heritage precinct. The development team describes the design approach as "The Village in the Garden," with new buildings positioned among mature landscaping by OCULUS and significant heritage structures.

<img alt="First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="44ec8c1b-c0b6-44ae-859e-5811b3e6a023" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Untitled%20design%20%281%29.png?VersionId=p.p1_KFh4iQoV4nisdnPfQBAsWNi7m79" />

The proposal would deliver 76 dwellings comprising a mix of apartments and duplex-style residences, significantly increasing housing supply on one of the largest privately held residential landholdings in Surrey Hills. The development includes 127 car spaces, 24 bicycle spaces and more than 1,000 sqm of communal amenity, with the existing chapel building earmarked for conversion into resident facilities.

According to the planning submission, the project centres on the restoration and adaptive reuse of the site's most significant heritage assets, including the original c.1889 St Joseph's building, the chapel designed by architect Augustus Andrew Fritsch, and the historic brick perimeter walls and entry gates. The proposal also incorporates the retention of other contributory buildings including the former infirmary and school building.

Tract Consultants, in the planning report accompanying the application, said the scheme had been shaped through extensive heritage analysis and design development.

"The shared vision for the Site by the project team has culminated in a scheme which successfully breathes life back into a historic site while delivering upon the objectives of Victoria's Housing Statement in a carefully curated and contextually responsive manner."

<img alt="First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7263b7d8-95ea-400f-9531-6ca7d22c3c33" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Untitled%20design%20%282%29.png?VersionId=4cR1tiWOsDpgxEOwZi5vVFcyvvOsYkIE" />

The proposal is being assessed under Victoria's Significant Residential Development with Affordable Housing pathway. As part of the application, three per cent of the project's residential development cost would be contributed to the Social Housing Growth Fund. The development would also provide a diverse mix of one, two and three-bedroom residences targeting a broader range of buyers than typically found in Surrey Hills' detached housing market.

Sustainability initiatives include an anticipated 66 per cent BESS score, natural cross-ventilation to 80 per cent of apartments, 28 per cent deep soil landscaping and a canopy cover outcome exceeding local planning requirements. The proposal also sets aside more than 1,083 sqm for communal indoor and outdoor resident amenity spaces.

<img alt="First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="33fad46f-fe26-4d0a-acfd-6b776e1c6a3d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Untitled%20design.png?VersionId=D9F6WVSyYCtGvSUmith35LRp6R7PQkw_" />

Planning documents describe the property as one of the largest underutilised residential sites in Surrey Hills, arguing it presents a rare opportunity to introduce "missing middle" housing in an established inner-eastern suburb while preserving and revitalising a significant heritage precinct.

Antipodean Land Developments has built a reputation for design-focused residential projects across Melbourne, particularly in the medium-density sector. Previous developments include Neighbourhood in Brunswick East, delivered with Breathe Architecture, and Balfe Park Lane, designed by Kerstin Thompson Architects.

They've been very active in site acquisition as they build out their future development pipeline. They recently launched Thornubury House, 45 apartments above a mix of commercial, retail, and food and beverage tenancies, and have plans for a boutique project in Fitzroy and another <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/vic/antipodean-plan-apartments-for-deepdenes-missing-middle-on-whitehorse-road">"missing middle" project</a> on Deepdene's Whitehorse Road.

Joel Robinson

First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills

Developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/auyin-property-development">Auyin</a> is the latest to turn to the Victorian Government's Development Facilitation Program in an effort to secure approval for its long-planned, mixed-use project in Elsternwick.

In 2018, Auyin lodged plans with Glen Eira City Council for a 14-storey building, however Council approved a reduced eight-storey scheme. A subsequent VCAT appeal in 2019 upheld the eight-storey height limit.

The project was later amended to nine storeys, but Auyin is now seeking to revive something closer to its original vision. The developer argues that the planning context has evolved significantly over the past decade, particularly within the Elsternwick Activity Centre, where higher-density development has increasingly been encouraged along Glen Huntly Road.

The proposal would transform the 1,239 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/7-12-horne-street-elsternwick-vic-3185">7-15 Horne Street</a>, opposite Elsternwick Railway Station, into a 13-storey residential and retail development designed by CBG Architects, with 40 apartments

The site currently comprises three commercial properties.

<img alt="First look: 13-storey mixed-use tower planned for Elsternwick activity centre" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="5f465dd4-509b-4082-a669-0253b313914b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/elsternwick%20podium.png?VersionId=72frWi0SmQ5AVJ3ARRhX5ILUYObhTm7x" />

The proposed apartment mix comprises 25 two-bedroom and 15 three-bedroom residences above 200 sqm of retail space at ground level. Residents would have access to a 90 sqm wellness facility, a 351 sqm communal indoor and outdoor terrace on the third level, and extensive landscaped areas throughout the development. A publicly accessible 135 sqm plaza would be created on the north-east corner of the site, providing seating, landscaping, and a new gathering space adjoining Horne Street.

The design adopts a four-storey podium that references the finer-grain character of the surrounding streetscape, with the upper tower recessed behind generous setbacks on all boundaries.

<img alt="First look: 13-storey mixed-use tower planned for Elsternwick activity centre" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e637e763-2abc-4c34-a0aa-5c7ad36fae18" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/elsternwick%20open.png?VersionId=J1AoOpZgTyaF.KeeFSX6lMjEScX8KKRi" />

A key element of the proposal is the reconfiguration and widening of the surrounding laneways. Vehicle access would be retained from Lois Lane, with upgraded pedestrian connections linking Ross Street and Horne Street. The development would provide 58 residential car spaces, two retail car spaces, and 52 bicycle spaces across two basement levels and ground-floor facilities.

Architecturally, the building draws inspiration from the established character of Elsternwick Village. The façade combines dark charcoal brickwork, textured concrete, bronze-toned metal detailing, and extensive planting integrated into podium and tower levels. The design also incorporates a chamfered corner treatment and publicly accessible plaza intended to strengthen pedestrian activity around the station precinct.

Elsternwick's last new development completion was&nbsp;EVA Elsternwick by Pitard late last year. <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/milieu-property">Milieu</a> is working away on its nature-led neighbourhood, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/elsternwick-gardens-by-milieu-8-gordon-street-elsternwick-vic-3185">Elsternwick Gardens</a>, on Gordon Street, with its first stage expected to complete next year.

First look: Auyin seeks mixed-use apartment project in growing Elsternwick Activity Centre

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/otium-parkdale-123-125-como-parade-east-parkdale-vic-3195">Otium Parkdale</a>, the 13-residence boutique development by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/huxtable-property">Huxtable Property</a>, has entered its final stages of delivery, with completion expected within the coming month and more than half of the residences sold.

The Como Parade East project is nearing the finish line at a time when opportunities to purchase new apartments in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/parkdale-vic-3195">Parkdale</a> remain exceptionally limited. Fewer than 10 per cent of dwellings in the bayside suburb are apartments, making developments like Otium a relatively rare addition to a market traditionally dominated by detached housing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134974 project_image_fid=5427]

The three-level development comprises 13 residences, including ten two-bedroom apartments and three larger three-bedroom homes, all positioned above a secure basement car park.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/almeida-architects">Almeida Architects</a> with a strong connection to its coastal surroundings, Otium combines red brick, exposed concrete and dark metal detailing with integrated landscaping and greenery. Expansive glazing, generous balconies and terraces have been incorporated throughout the design to maximise natural light and reinforce indoor-outdoor living.

Inside, the residences feature engineered European oak flooring, natural and reconstituted stone benchtops, Bosch kitchen appliances, ducted heating and cooling, lift access and secure entry systems. The larger three-bedroom residences on the upper level have been designed with house-like proportions, while the two-bedroom apartments prioritise functionality, flexibility and low-maintenance living.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134974 project_image_fid=5421]

The project is now in its final stages, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/labco">Labco</a> completing the remaining landscaping and external finishing works following the completion of the residences' interiors.

Otium's location within the heart of Parkdale continues to underpin its appeal. Residents will be just steps from local cafés, restaurants, shops and the newly elevated Parkdale Station, while the beach is less than a kilometre away.

With the project tracking ahead of schedule, buyers can currently secure a residence with a five per cent deposit and benefit from settlement terms of up to eight months. The advanced stage of construction also provides buyers with the opportunity to walk through the near-complete residences and experience the quality and finishes firsthand ahead of completion.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134974]

Otium Parkdale enters final month before completion as rare apartment opportunity nears sellout

A new boutique apartment development is entering the market in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/chermside-qld-4032">Chermside</a>, with Brisbane-based developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/ausdev">Ausdev</a> bringing 33 residences to a well-connected pocket of Brisbane's north.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/parkdrive-apartments-chermside-25-sammells-drive-chermside-qld-4032">Parkdrive Apartments</a>, at 25 Sammells Drive, will comprise a mix of one- and two-bedroom residences positioned within walking distance of Westfield Chermside, The Prince Charles Hospital, and Bradbury Park.

Established in 1989, Ausdev has a long-standing presence across both development and construction, with Parkdrive Apartments representing its latest residential project in Brisbane's northern suburbs.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152125 project_image_fid=363778]

The development has been designed around open-plan living and natural light, with residences featuring stone benchtops, timber cabinetry, BOSCH appliances, and private balconies that extend the living areas outdoors.

Kitchens are positioned as the centrepiece of the homes, incorporating natural material palettes and integrated appliances, while bathrooms have been designed with a focus on functionality and understated finishes.

Residents will have access to a communal barbecue and entertaining area on Level 3, providing shared outdoor space within the development. Secure parking and lift access are also incorporated into the building.

The project will deliver a limited collection of 33 apartments, with one-bedroom residences priced from $749,000.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152125 project_image_fid=363782]

Beyond the building itself, the location places residents within easy reach of several of Chermside's key amenities. Bradbury Park is around 350 metres away, while Westfield Chermside is approximately 1.3 kilometres from the site. The Prince Charles Hospital is located within 750 metres, and the Chermside Bus Interchange is around 1.5 kilometres away, providing connections across Brisbane.

Parkdrive Apartments adds to the growing residential pipeline in Chermside, a suburb that continues to evolve as a major retail, healthcare, and transport hub for Brisbane's north.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152125]

Ausdev introduces boutique Parkdrive Apartments to Chermside's growing centre

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/skymark-group">Skymark</a>'s boutique Cronulla development Solis has secured a 10-year Latent Defects Insurance policy through Resilience Insurance, providing buyers of the 16-residence building on Ewos Parade with structural and waterproofing protection that extends a decade beyond the building's completion.

Currently under construction and due for completion in late 2027, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/solis-cronulla-8-ewos-parade-cronulla-nsw-2230">Solis</a> is one of a small number of new developments in the Sutherland Shire to carry Resilience LDI coverage, a distinction that carries increasing weight as buyer confidence in the off-the-plan sector continues to be shaped by how developers stand behind their product.

Latent Defects Insurance, which entered the Australian market in 2022 when Resilience Insurance was approved to offer the cover, protects buyers against major structural or waterproofing defects for ten years post-completion. Unlike traditional statutory warranties, it operates as a first-resort policy, if a covered defect arises, the insurer responds directly, without the buyer needing to pursue the builder or developer through a lengthy claims process.

Resilience Insurance CEO Corey Nugent has noted that the product addresses something fundamental to the new apartment market.

"The overarching feedback from prospective buyers in the new development space is that they want more confidence and assurances around the quality of the build," Nugent says.

"Resilience Insurance Latent Defects Insurance not only gives them complete peace of mind for 10 years, but it shows the developer they are buying from is standing by their product."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150499 project_image_fid=370898]

For Solis, the Resilience LDI policy adds a meaningful layer of accountability to an already considered project. The development comprises nine two-bedroom and seven three-bedroom residences, including one dual-level three-bedroom apartment, across a five-storey building on Ewos Parade, positioned between Shelly Beach and South Cronulla.

Garden apartments connect directly to private landscaped courtyards, while upper-level homes capture beach views to the east from level four and above.&nbsp;

All 16 residences include at least one balcony or courtyard, and select apartments on the upper floors feature bar areas and secondary flexible living spaces.

Hiba Sander, Managing Director of Skymark, says Solis offers a rare balance, nestled between the quiet beauty of secluded beaches and the lively charm of South Cronulla's esplanade.

"It's a place to choose your pace and live gracefully, seaside'," Sander says.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150499 project_image_fid=370900]

The architecture, designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ida-design-group">IDA Design Group</a>'s Michael Trinh, draws from the natural erosion patterns of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/cronulla-nsw-2230">Cronulla</a>'s sandstone headlands, translating the organic forms of the coastline into soft curves, pavilion-style massing, and a material palette chosen for longevity in a salt-tinged environment.&nbsp;

Textured natural stone, soft renders, and timber-look battens reference the tones of the surrounding cliffs, while the building has been oriented to maximise natural light and passive ventilation, with primary living spaces facing north and east to capture morning sun and sea breezes.

"At Solis, our aim was to create architecture that feels quietly confident, grounded in natural materials like stone and timber, and elevated by light and landscape," Trinh says.&nbsp;

"The buildings are designed to sit gently within their coastal surrounds, with expansive glazing and abundant greenery creating a seamless dialogue between inside and out."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150499 project_image_fid=370897]

Interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/hot-black">Hot Black</a> carry the same material language through to every room. Kitchens feature integrated Gaggenau appliances, sculpted stone benchtops, and Lo &amp; Co joinery, while bathrooms feature natural stone, timber, and brushed metal finishes.&nbsp;

Hot Black Founder and Design Director Sophie Safrin describes the intent as one of considered restraint: "At Solis, every detail has been thoughtfully considered to create a timeless coastal retreat, calm, refined, and effortlessly liveable. From natural finishes to seamless indoor-outdoor flow, Solis offers a quiet elegance that's deeply connected to its surroundings.

The landscape, designed by Julian Brady of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/sitedesignstudios">Site Design Studios</a>, treats green space as an integral part of the resident experience rather than an afterthought.&nbsp;

"Gentle curves and layered native plantings mirror the ebb and flow of the ocean," Julian Brady says, "creating a serene connection between architecture and place."&nbsp;

Coco Republic has provided bespoke furniture packages tailored to the project's coastal palette.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150499 project_image_fid=370899]

Skymark has an established track record in the Sutherland Shire, with a portfolio spanning Cronulla, Woolooware and Burraneer that includes Isla, Sylva, Bask, Shells, Sula and Mist. Securing LDI on Solis reflects a broader shift in how the developer is positioning its buildings to buyers, at a time when Resilience Insurance expects the policy to become mandatory in New South Wales by 2028.

Sales at Solis are launching soon through Ray White Projects, with an official event scheduled for 11 June. Enquire for more information.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150499]

Skymark takes out 10-year Resilience Insurance LDI at Solis Cronulla

Finder.com.au

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The decline in house prices over the last year and a half has seen positive sentiment for housing affordability reach a 13 month high, according to Finder's RBA Survey.
REA Group chief economist Nerida Conisbee said that due to positive sentiment trending upward for employment and stronger numbers reported in March a rate cut won't happen this month, but it's coming.
"While the likelihood of a cut is increasing, this month is still too early," Conisbee said. “If economic data continues to deteriorate, then we will likely see movement in the second half of the year," Conisbee said. 
Click here to enlarge.
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This feeling is shared by many on the panel with nearly all (35/36) experts and economists forecasting the cash rate to be held at 1.50% on Tuesday (2 April 2019) for the 29th consecutive meeting. Economist Stephen Koukoulas from Market Economics had predicted a cut today. "The economy has slowed, with the per capita GDP recession in the second half of last year probably continuing into 2019.  “Inflation is low and with the household sector under pressure from falling house prices, some policy stimulus is needed," Koukoulas said. Seventy-six per cent of those surveyed expect the next rate change, whenever it does happen, to be a decrease. This belief is consistent with the 75% who held this prediction last month.
 
 
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Housing affordability reaches 13-month high: Finder RBA Survey

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Experts and economist in the Finder RBA Cash Rate Survey have predicted there are more price falls to come across the country over 2019.
Sydney and Melbourne units, which have gone on relatively unnoticed in comparison to the major capitals declining housing market, are set to fair the worst.
The experts believe Sydney units will decline 7.7% across 2019, with Melbourne just behind at 7.6%.
Declines of this magnitude will see Sydney units drop to around $54,000 to a new median of $650,000. Melbourne's new median would be $509,000 after a $42,000 drop.
There's no better news for the Sydney and Melbourne housing markets, which are predicted to continue to fall.
Sydney's houses are to see a further 6.2% decline, the equivalent to nearly $58,000, according to the Finder survey.
Melbourne will fare slightly worse, with 6.5% declines predicted, bringing their median down by $49,000.
The only capital city predicted to have property prices increase this year is Hobart, with houses set to rise in value by 1.4%, the equivalent of a $6,500 increase.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/4/2/Finder1.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge</a>.
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Graham Cooke, insights manager at Finder, said the cooling market could be just what some first-time buyers need to get on the property ladder. “With the highest median house and unit price in the country, it’s not surprising that Sydney is expected to be hit hardest by the property downturn. “If the predictions hold true, Melbourne and Sydney property still have another 6 to 8 per cent to drop this year. This means $60,000 more knocked off the average property price in Sydney.   
“While this makes it harder for existing homeowners to build up equity, it could make Sydney an attractive market for first-time buyers with a deposit saved,” Cooke said. Cooke said those thinking of getting into the property market over the next few years may be wise to hold out until prices have dropped further.  “Right now, there’s no need to jump on the first property you like. Use this time to save for your upfront costs.  “Look for value before you plunk down your deposit. Buying at the right time could potentially save you tens of thousands,” he said. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Sydney prices to tumble a further $60,000 by 2020: Finder's RBA Survey

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One in three experts in Finder's RBA Cash Rate Survey believe the Royal Commission will result in fewer home loans with the big banks.
Six of 18 respondents said the big four will see their home loan counts decline, with smaller lenders getting a bigger slice.
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Graham Cooke, insights manager at Finder, said the impact could be far-reaching. 
“A third of our experts think that consumers will move away from the big four due to trust issues and stricter lending conditions. 
“As a result, what we can expect to see is more borrowers turning to smaller and online lenders, which typically offer lower rates to lure in new customers. They often also tend to have easy-to-use platforms which can mean faster application and approval, lower fees and more personalised customer service than larger lenders.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/subscribe" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/2/Subscriber%20strip%20ad.jpg" alt=""></a>
“Some of the poor behaviour detailed in the Royal Commission may actually lead more consumers to think twice about the big guys,” Cooke said. 
Cooke said despite the Royal Commission findings, the home loan market is great for buyers with housing prices easing. 
“With house prices tumbling, and rates at all-time lows, the outlook for housing affordability is strong. 
“It’s a great time for borrowers to consider their options and get a good deal. Remember, these days if you’re rate doesn’t have a 3 in front of it, you could be doing better,” he said. 
Every expert predicted a rate hold in today's RBA cash rate announcement, but now 75% of respondents <a href="/expert-insights/finance/rate-cuts-forecast-by-finder-rba-survey-experts">expect the next move to be a cut</a>. 
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Here’s what Finder's experts had to say: 
Nicholas Frappell, ABC Bullion: ​"Chances of a cut have grown, but the domestic outlook remains reasonably good employment wise and so far consumer spending remains okay despite sinking property prices on the east coast." 
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Shane Oliver, AMP Capital:​ "Things aren’t yet weak enough to push the RBA to cut but they aren’t strong enough to push it to hike either." 
Alison Booth, ANU:​ "The fundamentals do not warrant any rate changes." John Hewson, ANU:​ "Insufficient evidence yet of a slowing economy." Malcolm Wood, Baillieu: ​"Labour market still robust; inflation below target." 
Tim Moore, CUA: ​“On the balance of the economic data in Australia, the RBA have clearly communicated that the risks are balanced therefore the trajectory of the cash rate from here will depend on how both downside and upside risks play out with the key hurdle to a rate cut being employment and inflation. I expect neither cash rate move in the near term." 
Trent Wiltshire, Domain:​ “The RBA has stated the outlook for the cash rate is more balanced, rather than the hiking bias seen throughout 2018. But the RBA is still keen to avoid cutting rates, so will keep the cash rate on hold.” 
Debra Landgrebe, Gateway Bank:​ "This is a watching brief, as GDP growth is slower than expected, unemployment is expected to tick up, despite the January jobs report being stronger than expected. This means that quantitative easing may be required. GDP growth is feeling the effect of property prices falling and low wage growth, which is dampening consumer spending more than expected." 
Mark Brimble, Griffith Uni:​ "Bias is moving toward rate reduction, and while there is a case for this in my view, the RBA is likely to want to hold position for now." 
Peter Haller, Heritage Bank:​ "The RBA has clearly stated it is on hold for the time being." Tim Reardon, Housing Industry Association:​ "Insufficient data to conclude that the poor results from end 2018 will be long lived."
Alex Joiner, IFM Investors: ​"The RBA emphasised that it does not think it will need to move on rates, in either direction, in the short term. I’d agree with this sentiment. While some indicators have softened, importantly the labour market has held up well and while this continues to be the case, the RBA has time to assess the remainder of the economy and wait for the better wages and inflation metrics it desires to emerge." 
Michael Witts, ING: ​"Their recent comments suggest the outlook for rates is finely balanced." 
Peter Boehm, KVB Kunlun:​ "The overall direction of interest rates appears to be at a crossroads. For now, I expect rates to stay on hold but recent mixed economic data (in particular the slowing of the housing market) not to mention what's happening internationally (political unrest, trade wars, strains on international relationships) is adding a fair degree of volatility to the economic and financial landscape, which may well last during the course of 2019. For this reason, the RBA may take a conservative approach to rate setting, erring on the side of caution. This caution may manifest itself in a rate drop, meaning, in part, the economy is not as solid as we would like. The next couple of months, leading up to the general election, will be telling."
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Leanne Pilkington, Laing+Simmons: ​"There’s somewhat of a stand-off in the housing market at the moment. The level of buyer interest is encouraging but reduced accessibility to finance is having a dampening impact on transactional activity. While this issue runs deeper than merely the cost of finance, a hold pattern remains the prudent course for the RBA in the current climate." 
Nicholas Gruen, Lateral Economics: ​"The bank will see no need to move." 
Mathew Tiller, LJ Hooker:​ "Despite a deterioration in the outlook for the Australian and global economies, recent employment data shows that there are some economic bright spots. This means it remains too early for the RBA to shift rates just yet." 
John Caelli, ME Bank: ​"The Reserve Bank recently moved their interest rate outlook to neutral territory, so it is likely they will hold rates for the near future. With growth and inflation forecasts downgraded, the focus will be on the housing market and unemployment for signs of stress." 
Michael Yardney, Metropole Property Strategists: ​"The RBA has acknowledged that our economy is weaker and the likelihood that the next movement in rates is down. However, it is hoping for employment growth to buoy our economy and it is likely to wait a month or two and see how our property markets are faring before acting." 
Mark Crosby, Monash University:​ "RBA held off raising rates with house prices rising for 3 years. It would be staggering if they cut after 12 months of falls, given a generally stable economy." 
Jacqueline Dearle, Mortgage Choice:​ "I predict the RBA to hold the rate in March and beyond until it has a better handle on what’s really happening locally with consumers and because there are no major external drivers, such as the Fed, to shift. In February, the Fed left the key interest rate unchanged and said it would be patient in the face of a mounting set of risks, including slowing growth in China and Europe, Brexit, ongoing trade negotiations and the effects of the five-week U.S. government shutdown. Back in Australia, the RBA’s prediction of 3% economic growth this year (and 2.75% growth next year), may be too optimistic, say some economists. Softer growth numbers mean higher unemployment, which would suggest a rate cut down the track. The RBA will be keeping a keen eye on the housing market, especially the key markets of Sydney and Melbourne. With the housing adjustment threatening to spill over into the wider economy, the (negative) wealth effect may increase consumer desire to save and curb consumer spending, which in turn impacts retail and the wider economy. As we have seen this month, there are a lot of moving parts with the Australian dollar, which is sensitive to global economic uncertainties. Looking ahead, we will ideally see credit flow to borrowers to support the housing market, an increase in residential construction, and property investors encouraged to get back into the market." 
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Dr Andrew Wilson, My Housing Market: ​"Waiting for December quarter GDP data to be released March 6. If there is another weaker than expected result, the odds will narrow for a pre-Budget, pre Federal Election cut in April or May. Although recent wage data was reasonable (not good, not bad), RBA has conditioned the market to now expect a long-needed cut. This cut will attempt to revive consumption, which is now likely to also be impacted by continuing weaker housing markets." 
Alan Oster, NAB: ​"RBA still watching the economy, the consumer and wages."
Andrew Reeve-Parker, NW Advice Pty Limited: ​"Sufficient economic activity is balancing housing market concerns."
Jonathan Chancellor, Property Observer: ​"Holding is the bank's inclination." 
Noel Whittaker, QUT:​ "There is no way they will raise them and a drop would be premature." 
Nerida Conisbee, REA Group: ​"Although the case is building for the next move to be a cut, I think that on balance, the data coming out is still too mixed. Unemployment is still very low even though we are still not seeing this flow through to consumer sentiment." 
Janu Chan, St.George Bank: ​"The RBA has recently shifted toward a more neutral stance, and acknowledged that downside risks have increased. It however, is maintaining its central view that the unemployment rate will gradually fall. While the debate has shifted away from the next move being a hike, the RBA doesn't appear to be ready to cut rates either. " 
Clement Allan Tisdell, The University of Queensland: ​"Comments of the Governor of the RBA lead me to believe the cash rate will be held." 
Richard Holden, UNSW: ​"[The RBA is] waiting for new inflation numbers before they make a move." 
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Other participants: ​Bill Evans, Westpac. 
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Can the big banks bounce back? What the experts say on the rate hold

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Over 75 percent of experts who take part in Finder's RBA cash rate survey now believe the next cash rate movement will be a cut.
It was only three months ago that nearly 80% of the panel said the next move would be a hike in rates.  
All 31 experts and economists in Finder’s RBA cash rate survey are expecting a hold at 1.50% on Tuesday.
In the survey, some experts (9/17) forecasted the cash rate would drop to 1.00% before the year is out. 
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Graham Cooke, insights manager at Finder, said August and November were the most popular months for a forecasted cut. “Last month, I said the drop to 40% (of economists who believe the next rate move will be upwards) was the most dramatic I had seen in four years of running this survey.
"This month, that drama is elevated with just one in four believing this to be the case. “With the housing market continuing to tumble, and other global and international economic factors looking grim, experts seem to be sure we’re looking at at least one cut in 2019, if not two,” Cooke said.  Dr Andrew Wilson, chief economist at My Housing Market, said an easing of of the cash rate is overdue. "Although recent wage data was reasonable – not good, not bad – RBA has conditioned the market to now expect a long-needed cut," Wilson said.
“This cut will attempt to revive consumption, which is now likely to also be impacted by continuing weaker housing markets." Finder’s Economic Sentiment Tracker, which gauges five key indicators – housing affordability, employment, wage growth, cost of living and household debt – has also seen a significant shift.
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This month’s tracker set three all-time marks, one positive and two negative. Positive economic sentiment in housing affordability reached its highest level recorded, while positive sentiment for employment and wage growth dropped to their lowest levels. Cooke said the economic sentiment and rate cut predictions signal good news for would-be mortgage holders, but a different story for savers. “Potential first home buyers with a deposit saved are in an overwhelmingly advantageous position in this market. But it doesn’t all start and end with a purchase – any buyer needs to be taking a long-term view with their finances, and be shopping around online for the best possible home loan rate and features. “As for savers, anybody who relies on their savings as a form of income, such as retirees, may soon be making far less interest on their nest egg – so now is the time to take action,” he said. Cooke said savers need a new plan of attack if rates do indeed drop as forecast. “Savers should start to plan for these cuts by looking into term deposits and considering researching different types of investment opportunities,” he said.
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Rate cuts forecast by Finder RBA survey experts

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Experts and economists in Finder.com.au's RBA Cash Rate Survey are predicting further drops of $50,000-$60,000 in Melbourne and Sydney.
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When asked for their housing price predictions, experts forecast 6% falls still to come in Australia’s eastern capitals of Sydney and Melbourne by the end of 2019.
Graham Cooke, insights manager at Finder, said now is a great time to be in the market if you’re lucky enough to have a deposit saved. 
“A 6.3 percent drop in Sydney would see average house prices dip a further $58,000, while a 6.6 per cent drop in Melbourne this time would mean a fall of more than $49,000," Cooke said.
“Remarkably, should these price drops eventuate as forecast, this would make Sydney and Melbourne property the cheapest it has been in four years,” he said. 
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Cooke said prospective buyers should use this speculation to their advantage.
 “If you’re buying in a falling market, negotiate to the point where you think it will turn. 
“In other words, bargain for at least 6 per cent under the asking price in Sydney, or 7 per cent in Melbourne,” Cooke said. 
Cooke said property owners in Adelaide and Hobart have reason to celebrate.
“Interestingly, experts predicted property prices in both Adelaide and Hobart to grow, so it could be worthwhile considering investment opportunities in these cities,” Cooke said. 
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House prices to keep falling in eastern capitals: Finder's RBA survey

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11 percent of home borrowers will be seeking new lenders this year, according to a new research revealed by Finder.
Their survey of 2,010 revealed that 56 percent of Australians are "sick of paying too much for financial products and pledging to switch at least one this year."
Aussies are most likely to switch phone providers, with 3.5 million looking to ditch their telco this year.
Finder's survey revealed "parents are twice as likely (14%) to consider switching a home loan than those without kids (7%)."
"Australians are least likely to shop around for super funds. Just 7% admit they will look for a better deal in 2019."
"Health insurance (17%), car insurance (16%), energy plans (16%) and broadband internet (14%) round out the top five switches that Aussies will be pursuing in 2019," according to the researchers.
Angus Kidman, editor-in-chief at Finder, says “Cost-cutting is the main reason householders will jump ship, and it can result in huge savings.
Generation Y (those aged 24-38) are much more inclined to switch, with 70% keen to find a better deal in 2019, compared to just 41% of Baby Boomers (those aged 59 and above).
Kidman said “More Australians are shopping around than ever before and they’re looking for the best deals."
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Just 11 percent of Australians are set to refinance their home loans in 2019: Finder

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Sydney and Melbourne should prepare for a big drop in housing value, according to finder.com.au.
Finder asked experts and economists to weigh in on ANZ Bank forecasting a 15-20% fall from peak house prices in Sydney and Melbourne.
The majority of experts surveyed (15/21, or 71%) said they agreed with ANZ’s assessment.
Graham Cooke, Insights Manager at finder.com.au, said that economists’ predictions of drops in the property market have become more dramatic.
“ANZ’s suggested 15% drop would see $145,500 and $118,500 wiped off the average house price in Sydney and Melbourne respectively," said Cooke. 
“A 20% drop would see nearly $200,000 disappear from the equity of Sydney homeowners,” Cooke said.
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Interestingly, economists were evenly split as to whether the housing downturn would result in more or fewer renovation projects.
“There is however solid agreement that there’ll be fewer new homes built in 2019,” Cooke said.
The Finder Survey showed that two-thirds of experts (14/21, or 66%) expect less construction, with 38% of experts predicting there’ll be at least a 10% drop in construction of new homes in 2019.
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Sydney house values could plummet by nearly $194,000: Finder

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The RBA survey of experts from Finder.com.au has seen 94 percent say tightening lending practices could negatively effect the economy.
Anticipating a tightening of lending practices following the Royal Commission, 80% of the twenty experts and economists polled in the survey​ say that it will be increasingly difficult for small businesses to access credit. 
Half the experts predict businesses to turn to smaller lenders rather than relying on the big four banks. 
Graham Cooke, insights manager at finder.com.au, said the increased scrutiny from the Royal Commission on the larger institutions means now is the time for smaller lenders to shine.
“Increased oversight creates stricter lending criteria which usually means the smaller players can’t access cash as easily. 
“There is a big opportunity here for smaller lenders to gain an edge over the big banks due to the increasingly competitive market.”
All 32 members of the survey predicted a rate hold today, while the confidence in the next cash rate being a hike has waned since September.
Of the 27 expert responses, only 21 (78%) predicted a rise, down from 88% in September.
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Six experts (22%) are predicting a rate cut, with four citing a final cash rate of 1%.
Cooke said for the first time, Finder analysis shows one in four economists saying there will be no rise until 2020.
“This will be good news for mortgage holders who will already have taken a financial hit from increasing energy and petrol prices.
“If we don’t see any movement until 2020, this will represent an unprecedented 29 months with a static cash rate.”
Dr Andrew Wilson, chief economist at My Housing Market, said the RBA may be tangled in a web of its own design. 
“Drums are beating louder for a cut, but the RBA have somewhat painted themselves into a corner with recent consistent statements that the next move is likely to be up. 
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“Ordinary inflation data, unions marching in the streets demanding higher wages, stock market crumbling and housing markets tanking. If the next wages index remains benign, then a louder cut chorus will be heard,” Wilson said. 
 
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Tightening lending practices could negatively effect economy: Finder's RBA survey

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One in four economists in Finder's RBA survey say that there won't be a cash rate rise until 2020. 
In September nearly 90 percent of experts predicted the next cash rate movement to be a rise. Now that number has dropped to below 80 percent.
There are six experts who are predicting a rate cut as the RBA's next cash rate move.
Dr Andrew Wilson, chief economist from My Housing Market said the RBA may be tangled in a web of its own design.
“Drums are beating louder for a cut, but the RBA have somewhat painted themselves into a corner with recent consistent statements that the next move is likely to be up," Wilson said.
“Ordinary inflation data, unions marching in the streets demanding higher wages, stock market crumbling and housing markets tanking."
"If the next wages index remains benign, then a louder cut chorus will be heard,” Wilson said.
Graham Cooke, insights manager at Finder, said it would be good news for mortgage holders if rates don't move until 2020.
“This will be good news for mortgage holders who will already have taken a financial hit from increasing energy and petrol prices," he said.
“If we don’t see any movement until 2020, this will represent an unprecedented 29 months with a static cash rate.”
Here's what the experts had to say:
Alan Oster, NAB: "Still waiting to see what happens to wages and the consumer."
Alex Joiner, IFM Investors: "Inflation data for the third quarter came in slightly weaker than the market expected and decelerated again away from the bottom of the RBA’s target band. This is broadly in line with the Bank’s expectation however underscores that despite good economic growth the inflationary pulse in the economy is weak. In the absence of either a material pick up in wage growth and inflation the RBA simply has no reason to alter its currently policy path."
Alison Booth, ANU: "The fundamentals have not yet altered enough to warrant any change."
Brian Parker, Sunsuper: "Enough downside risks to the economic outlook and to inflation to keep RBA on hold."
Christine Williams, Smarter Property Investing: "Employment has reduced slightly. Housing pricing has slowed and or reduced slightly from an investor perspective. My opinion due to the impact of stamp duty payable for investor purchases."
Clement Tisdell, UQ-School of Economics: "No major changes in the economy that would warrant a change. These days, this rate is more a signalling device than anything else."
Dr Andrew Wilson, My Housing Market: "Drums are beating louder for a cut but RBA have somewhat painted themselves into a corner with recent consistent statements that next move likely to be up. Ordinary inflation data, unions marching in the streets demanding higher wages, stock market crumbling and housing markets tanking. If the next wages index remains benign then a louder cut chorus will be heard - clock ticking.”
Geordan Murray, HIA: "Inflationary pressures are still below the target band and there is still excess capacity in the labour market, so rates are likely to be left on hold. It will be interesting to see what the RBA make the latest update to the labour force figures which showed the national unemployment rate dropped to 5.0 per cent, with rates in NSW and Victoria are 4.4 and 4.5 per cent, respectively. Housing credit growth is continuing to slow and home prices in Sydney and Melbourne are easing, it will be interesting to see what the RBA makes of these developments in the context of their earlier concerns about the risks posed by these two markets."
Janu Chan, St.George Bank: "Low inflation and slow wage growth continue to point to scope for the RBA to leave the cash rate on hold."
John Caelli, ME: "The RBA are still looking for further falls in unemployment and higher inflation. Current settings are considered appropriate to support this."
John Hewson, ANU: "Uncertain data - economy slowing."
Jonathan Chancellor, Property Observer: "We are only starting to see serious shocks in the property market. And if it escalates the accompanying uncertainly will trigger a drag on the wider economy too. The RBA will be watching closely. Its prior modelling found increases in uncertainty can trigger a downturn characterised by lower employment growth, weaker retail sales growth, and a fall in consumer confidence."
Jordan Eliseo, ABC Bullion: "When assessing the economy as a whole, its a mixed scorecard for the RBA. They will be pleased with recent developments in the labour market, though persistently low inflation, and continued falls in the housing market are obvious areas of concern. On balance, there is no immediate case to move rates in either direction, hence the likelihood that they'll remain stuck at 1.5%."
Leanne Pilkington, Laing+Simmons: "We can’t see any reason for a Cup Day surprise this year. The subdued housing market, particularly the major markets of Sydney and Melbourne, combined with a weak inflation rate beneath the target range should continue to keep rates low in the short to medium term."
Malcolm Wood, Baillieu: "While the RBA is bullish on growth, the housing downturn and inflation below target will lead them to leave rates on hold."
Marcel Thieliant, Capital Economics: "While the unemployment rate is now close to the RBA's estimate of the natural unemployment, the RBA will want to see more evidence that wage growth is picking up. What's more, the RBA will want to see how the housing downturn is affecting consumer spending, to what extent the Royal Commission is restraining credit growth, and whether the trade war is restraining export growth."
Mark Brimble, Griffith Uni: "The economy remains delicately poised. With increasing fuel prices and lending rates, credit availability declining and asset prices easing, both sentiment and activity are vulnerable."
Mark Crosby, Monash University: "The RBA has signalled it will be holding rates steady this year and into early 2019."
Mathew Tiller, LJ Hooker: "There was no discernible change in domestic economic indicators over the past month, ensuring that the RBA will hold the cash rate steady in November. A number of global economic developments may yet have an impact on the outlook for the Australian economy. That’s said, there is little chance of a change in the official cash rate in the short term, especially given the ongoing soft inflation numbers and the slowdown in the housing market; due to higher interest rates and tighter lending restrictions by the banks."
Matthew Peter, QIC: "Rising risks to the global economy, the domestic housing downturn and modest underlying inflation mean that the RBA is in no hurry to raise rates. However, a robust economy, strong employment growth and a falling unemployment rate mean that the RBA will not want to postpone normalising the cash rate indefinitely and will pull the trigger on a first rate hike in the second half of 2019."
Michael Witts, ING Bank: "The economy is unfolding as the RBA has anticipated therefore no action required by the RBA."
Michael Yardney, Metropole Property Strategists: "The RBA must be a little worried with the current crisis in consumer confidence. If anything it may want to err on the side of caution and lower rates, but it is likely to take a wait and see approach."
Nerida Conisbee, REA Group: "There has been some great economic news lately, particularly that unemployment has hit 5%. While this is the rate at which the RBA believes will kick start wages growth and inflation, this is yet to happen. As such, rates are likely to stay on hold this month."
Nicholas Gruen, Lateral Economics: "They've telegraphed it for ages."
Noel Whittaker, QUT: "No reason to raise or lower. $ is down, property prices are falling and the economy is OK." Peter Boehm, KVB Kunlun: "There are no economic or financial reasons to move rates at this stage."
Peter Gilmore, Gateway Bank: "Although unemployment has fallen, consumer confidence will be shaken by the house price and stock market falls."
Peter Haller, Heritage Bank Limited: "There is no economic case for changing the cash rate at this point in time."
Saul Eslake, Corinna Economic Advisory: "Although most recently reported economic growth figures were 'above trend', and the unemployment rate is 5% - the level traditionally regarded as signifying 'full employment' - the above trend growth is unlikely to be sustained in the near-term, the unemployment figure was probably 'rogue', there is still a lot of spare capacity in the labour market by other measures, the RBA itself has started to 'wonder out loud' that unemployment probably needs to be lower for longer than history suggests before wages growth starts to pick up - and, most importantly of all, the latest CPI data show 'underlying' inflation still running below the RBA's target range."
Shane Oliver, AMP Capital: "The fall in the official unemployment rate to 5% helped by above trend economic growth is good news. But the slide in home prices in Sydney and Melbourne risks accelerating as banks tighten lending standards which in turn threatens consumer spending and wider economic growth and inflation and wages growth remain low. Against this backdrop, it remains appropriate for the RBA to leave rates on hold."
Stephen Koukoulas, Market Economics: "RBA is continuing to ignore its inflation target otherwise it would be cutting."
Tim Nelson, Griffith University: "RBA believes current state of monetary policy is acting to gradually reduce unemployment with inflation in check. "
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One in four economists say no rate rise until 2020: Finder

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Experts and economists in Finder.com.au's RBA survey were divided when asked about honeymoon rates.
The temporary low rates on home loans split opinion.
Just over 40 percent said honeymoon rates were bad for borrowers, with the majority of this group indicating such offers encourage customers to take on more debt than they can afford.
The same amount of respondents to the survey felt honeymoon rates were good for consumers, with the majority favouring cost savings.
The remaining 20 percent were on the fence about introductory rates, including Mark Crosby from Monash University.
“It depends whether borrowers have the capacity to make additional repayments in these early years," Crosby said.
"If so [honeymoon rate loans] are a very good deal."
Finder.com.au insights manager Graham Cooke said honeymoon rates can be useful for borrowers as long as they understood the terms involved.
“Often the honeymoon rate is one percentage point below the standard rate, which is why honeymoon rates can be suitable for first home buyers looking to keep their repayments down within the introductory period.
“Honeymoon rates can be a great way for first home buyers to get a foot on the ladder, but they need to be prepared for higher interest costs once the temporary rate expires.
“As we expect some rate rises over the next two years, borrowers need to be comfortable with paying a rate that’s at least two percentage points higher than the current revert rate,” he said.
 
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