For the first time in a long time, Australia's inflation story is starting to look more like a landing than a fight.

The latest Consumer Price Index figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed annual inflation eased to four per cent in May, down from 4.2 per cent in April. On the surface, that might not seem like a major move. Inflation remains above the Reserve Bank's target range and some categories continue to record stubborn price growth.

But the significance of this result lies less in where inflation sits today and more in what it means for where interest rates are likely heading next.

The biggest takeaway is that inflation continues to move in the right direction.

Markets had been bracing for another sticky result after a period where progress appeared to stall. Instead, headline inflation came in softer than expected, helped by falling fuel prices and easing transport costs. Annual transport inflation halved from 6.6 per cent in April to 3.3 per cent in May, while automotive fuel prices fell 11.9 per cent during the month following lower oil prices and the impact of reduced fuel excise measures.

While petrol prices don't solve Australia's affordability challenges, they are one of the most visible and immediate costs for consumers. Falling fuel costs feed through the economy quickly, helping ease pressure on household budgets and business operating expenses.

The ABS data also showed headline inflation is now sitting at its lowest annual level in several months, reinforcing the broader trend that price growth is gradually moderating.

That trend is important because it aligns with what many economists and lenders have been saying for the last month.

Prior to this week's inflation data, ANZ, NAB and Commonwealth Bank had all shifted their forecasts, now believing the Reserve Bank had likely reached the peak of the interest rate cycle. Following the May inflation release, ANZ reaffirmed that view.

In its latest economic update, ANZ said it expects quarterly trimmed mean inflation to come in at 3.7 per cent for the June quarter, slightly below the Reserve Bank's forecast of 3.8 per cent. Importantly, the bank said that outcome, when combined with slowing economic activity, "supports our view that the cash rate has peaked".

The Reserve Bank has spent the better part of three years attempting to bring inflation under control through higher interest rates. If Australia's major banks are correct and rates have now peaked, the conversation shifts from how much higher rates could go to when they might begin coming down.

Westpac's caution comes from underlying inflation. The trimmed mean, the measure most closely watched by the Reserve Bank, increased from 3.4 per cent to 3.6 per cent annually. Housing inflation remains elevated at 6.5 per cent, reflecting ongoing increases in rents, electricity costs and new dwelling construction.

Electricity prices remain particularly problematic, rising 21.1 per cent over the past year following the removal of government rebates.

Housing construction costs are also showing signs of renewed pressure. ANZ noted new dwelling costs rose 0.9 per cent in May and are now running at an annualised pace of 8.6 per cent over the past three months. Builders continue to face higher labour, fuel and material costs, a reminder that inflationary pressures have not completely disappeared.

Housing affordability has deteriorated largely because of higher interest rates rather than higher property prices alone. Even modest reductions in mortgage rates would improve borrowing capacity, increase buyer confidence and reduce repayment pressure on existing homeowners.

While August is far from a certainty, the latest inflation result has strengthened the view that the next move in rates is more likely to be down than up. For borrowers, buyers and the development sector, that alone represents a significant shift from the conversation that dominated much of the past two years.

Joel Robinson

The inflation result the property market was waiting for

Commercial property group FiveX is doubling down on its move into the residential space.

The group, founded by Joshua and Marko Berger more than five decades ago, has followed up its plans for a 39-storey tower on North Sydney's Alfred Street with a proposed 61-storey tower in Chatswood.

The new tower at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/815-pacific-highway-chatswood-nsw-2067">815 Pacific Highway</a>, which would be one of the tallest proposed in Chatswood in recent years, will comprise 490 apartments, 76 of which will be dedicated affordable housing and managed by Evolve Housing for a minimum of 15 years.

The project will replace the long-standing Panorama Building, originally known as the BMA Tower, a 14-storey office building completed in 1972 and designed by Hungarian-born architect Hugo Stossel. At the time of its completion, the building was the tallest structure in Chatswood and became a local landmark due to its distinctive curved form and external glass lift.

<img alt="FiveX" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="956bd299-3864-47a0-8ea6-162b5524c5d8" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-24%20at%201.02.03%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=EWx7teUr7RcYrI9mgRytwppwt5AdUDtb" />

fjcstudio is behind the designs. Its Architectural Design Report argues the ageing commercial building no longer reflects Chatswood's role as one of Sydney's key strategic centres and that the site is ideally positioned to support significantly higher residential density.

"The site is located at the heart of Chatswood, within the TOD accelerated rezoning area that supports higher density development around the new Metro station," the report states.

"The site's role within a walkable 400-metre radius catchment is where housing, employment, retail and community uses are encouraged to cluster in support of transit-oriented living."

<img alt="fjc" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="8d198f5e-cc71-4175-9357-be6ec7207473" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-24%20at%201.18.27%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=5WUFc3IYBPvhQMBUYLCsjJhzdcVeYodE" />

The proposal has undergone two rounds of review by the NSW State Design Review Panel, with the design evolving through an extensive assessment process focused on design excellence, public realm outcomes, residential amenity and the integration of affordable housing.

fjcstudio says the residential component provides a diverse mix of apartment typologies, supporting a broad demographic and contributing to housing supply in a highly accessible location close to major transport, employment and retail infrastructure.

The application follows FiveX's plans for a 39-storey tower at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/275-alfred-street-north-north-sydney-nsw-2060">275 Alfred Street</a>, which it <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/275-alfred-street-north-north-sydney-nsw-2060">submitted through the same NSW Government pathway</a> in December. That's for 184 apartments.

Recent activity in Chatswood includes Hyecorp launching its Archer Street project, Celine, and Develotek securing approval for a 34-storey tower.

First look: FiveX targets Chatswood skyline with 61-storey tower after North Sydney plans

Bridgewell Capital and SLD Development seem to be bullish on the Killara apartment market, filing plans for a second new development next to the Killara Golf Club.

The new plans are for 79 apartments across an amalgamated 4,989 sqm site on Buckingham Road.&nbsp;The project has been designed by BKA Architecture and is being assessed under the NSW Government's Low and Mid-Rise Housing and Infill Affordable Housing reforms. It is just 300 metres from&nbsp;Killara train station.

The majority of the apartments are three-bedrooms (46), with 23 two-bedroom apartments, seven one-beds, and three four-bedroom apartments. 17 of the apartments&nbsp;are proposed as affordable housing, representing 15 per cent of the project's gross floor area, allowing the development to access additional floor space and height incentives available under the NSW Housing SEPP.

There will be 131 resident and visitor car spaces, and more than&nbsp;1,450 sqm of communal open space. Landscaped areas would account for approximately 45 per cent of the site.

<img alt="Killara" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="75ef5ef7-a53b-4932-a8f1-38f63169eec9" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-24%20at%2011.04.00%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=d_lG1A1StDaMQilljy25Fr8SF1BnAmKE" />

The site currently contains three detached dwellings and occupies a prominent position on the eastern side of Buckingham Road, with frontage to an area that has already begun transitioning towards higher-density housing. Existing apartment buildings of up to six storeys surround the site, while the Killara Golf Club forms its southern boundary.

The application has been lodged as a State Significant Development due to the affordable housing component and the scale of the project.

According to the design report, the proposal has been shaped by the area's evolving planning framework, which is encouraging greater housing density around transport infrastructure.

"The site sits along a growth area anticipated to undergo transformation in line with broader trends across New South Wales, driven by the implementation of the Low and Mid-Rise and Transport-Oriented Development State Housing Policies," the report states.

"Being within 800 metres walking distance to Killara Train Station, the project seeks to provide high-quality apartments designed for various family sizes, located in a vibrant landscaped setting."

The Upper North Shore suburb has become one of the most closely watched testing grounds for the NSW Government's housing reforms. A number of developers have moved quickly to consolidate sites around railway stations across suburbs including Killara, Lindfield, Gordon and Roseville, where the new planning settings are creating opportunities for apartment developments that would previously have been difficult to achieve.

The likes of Aqualand, Hyecorp, Holdmark and Vermont Property Group have projects in the region.

Bridgewell has several developments in the pipeline. Last September they submitted plans for <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/bridgewell-capital-seeks-55-apartment-project-in-killara">55 new apartments</a> at&nbsp;23-25 Lorne Avenue in Killara, just the other side of Regimental Park from their new project. In May they filed for <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-bridgewell-plots-120-apartments-and-childcare-centre-in-maroubra-town-centre">120 apartments in Maroubra</a>.

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

First look: Bridgewell, SLD Development double down on Killara Golf Club

Sydney developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/central-element">Central Element</a>&nbsp;is doubling down in Drummoyne, lodging plans for a boutique apartment development on St Georges Crescent, only one-kilometre down the road from its first Drummoyne development, Bianca.

The new project at 15A-21 St Georges Crescent,&nbsp;a&nbsp;1,701sqm north-facing site overlooking Iron Cove, will have 45 apartmnts across 10 levels. Eight of the units will be dedicated to affordable housing.

The site sits within walking distance of Drummoyne Village, Birkenhead Point, ferry services and the Bay Run, and offers harbour views towards the Sydney Harbour Bridge and CBD skyline.

Designed by MHN Design Union, the development will deliver a mix of one, two and three-bedroom apartments, alongside resident amenity including a gym, landscaped communal open space and three levels of basement parking.

The project has been lodged under the NSW Government's Low and Mid-Rise Housing reforms, with Drummoyne Village identified as a town centre capable of accommodating additional housing supply.

Central Element acquired the site earlier this year as part of its continued expansion across Sydney's eastern suburbs, lower north shore and inner west.

The developer's current pipeline includes luxury apartment projects Pearl Bondi and a separate development on Lamrock Avenue in Bondi, a residential project in Barry Street, Neutral Bay, and a mixed-use seniors living community in Greenwich.

Central Element Managing Director Nathan Chivas said the project would address a shortage of new owner-occupier housing opportunities in Drummoyne.

"While we're seeing a significant shift across Canada Bay as major infrastructure investment, population growth and planning reform drive a new chapter for the region, in suburbs like Drummoyne there remains a genuine shortage of new boutique luxury housing opportunities for owner occupiers," Chivas said.

"Sites of this nature are increasingly difficult to secure, particularly those that combine a north-facing aspect with direct water outlook. Our St Georges Crescent project responds directly to the market demand, offering a level of exclusivity, outlook and lifestyle in the highly sought after suburb."

The development application has been lodged with the City of Canada Bay Council, with the project expected to launch to market in early 2027.

&nbsp;

Central Element seeks second Drummoyne apartment development

The NSW Government has unveiled plans that could deliver around 1,300 new homes across Nowra and Kiama, continuing its push to unlock housing in well-located regional centres along the South Coast.

The proposals, now on public exhibition, would pave the way for around 830 homes in Nowra and a further 450 homes in Kiama, while also introducing affordable housing requirements and increased building heights in key locations.

The larger of the two proposals is centred on Nowra, where the NSW Government is seeking to rezone land within the Mandalay and Riverfront precincts.

The Mandalay sub-precinct, located close to Shoalhaven Memorial Hospital, Nowra Library and the city's aquatic centre, could accommodate around 530 new homes. Around 30 per cent of housing delivered on Homes NSW-owned land would be dedicated to social and affordable housing, equating to roughly 100 homes. Building heights would increase from the current two-storey limit to between three and six storeys.

A separate rezoning proposal for the Nowra Riverfront Precinct would unlock a further 377 homes while creating stronger connections between the Shoalhaven River and the CBD. The plans include building heights ranging from five to 12 storeys, floor space ratios of up to 2:1 and a requirement for two per cent affordable housing.

Together, the two proposals would deliver more than 900 homes across the broader Nowra area, reinforcing the city's role as one of regional NSW's key growth centres.

The housing push builds on previous infrastructure commitments in the Shoalhaven, including government funding aimed at supporting thousands of future homes in West Nowra through upgrades to water and wastewater infrastructure.

Further north, the NSW Government is also progressing plans for the former Kiama Depot site, a two-hectare parcel near Kiama's town centre.

The rezoning proposal would transform the former industrial site into a residential community capable of delivering up to 450 homes. Buildings would range between six and eight storeys, with at least 10 per cent of homes allocated as affordable housing. The proposal also includes approximately 600 parking spaces and improved walking and cycling connections.

Planning Minister Paul Scully said the proposals are designed to increase housing supply in locations close to jobs, transport and services.

"For too long, families have struggled to find somewhere to live, and activating underutilised sites allows us to deliver the new homes these families need," Scully said.

"The Minns Labor Government is getting on with the job of unlocking well-located sites close to transport, jobs, and town centres and building the homes our communities need.

"These rezonings are about removing barriers to housing delivery and making sure land is put to better use so more people can find a place to call home within the communities they choose."

The latest rezonings form part of the Minns Government's broader strategy to accelerate housing delivery across NSW, particularly in established centres where existing infrastructure can support additional population growth.

Community consultation on the proposals is now underway, with feedback set to inform the final planning controls before the rezonings are determined.

Around 1,300 new homes earmarked for Nowra and Kiama as NSW Government pushes housing supply

Dwelling Vlaues

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
Throughout the 2018-19 financial year, 26.0% of all houses sold nationally were under $400,000 and 32.5% of all unit sales were under $400,000.
Despite the weakening housing market the share of house sales under $400,000 was virtually unchanged from a year ago, down from 26.3% the previous year while the share of unit sales under $400,000 increased from 31.0% over the 2017-18 financial year.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/15/sales%20national%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/15/sales%20national%201.jpg" alt="">
Source: CoreLogic 
Across the combined capital cities, 13.9% of house sales over the 2018-19 financial year were under $400,000 and 24.6% of unit sales were under this price point.
The share of house sales under $400,000 was virtually unchanged from the previous year, recorded at 13.8% while the share of unit sales was noticeably lower at 22.3%.
Despite house and unit values falling -8.7% and -5.9% respectively over the year, it is interesting to note that the share of unit sales under $400,000 has increased much more for units than houses.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/15/sales%20combined%20.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/15/sales%20combined%20.jpg" alt="">
Source: CoreLogic 
Across the combined regional markets, 42.8% of all house sales over the past financial year and 54.3% of all unit sales were under $400,000.
Unlike the combined capital cities, the combined regional markets have seen the share of sales under $400,000 record a sizeable decline compared to the previous financial year when 44.1% of house sales and 55.6% of unit sales were below $400,000.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/15/sales%20sydney.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/15/sales%20sydney.jpg" alt="">
Source: CoreLogic 
Over the 2018-19 financial year, 2.3% of all house sales in Sydney were below $400,000 compared to 2.0% over the previous financial year indicating a slight increase.
It was a similar story for units with 5.7% of all sales below $400,000 over the past year compared to 4.4% a year earlier.
Despite the recent declines in dwelling values in Sydney, there has not been any substantial increase in the share of sales below $400,000.
In regional NSW, the decline in dwelling values over the past year has been significant but not as large as that in Sydney.
At the end of the 2017-18 financial year, 29.3% of all house sales and 42.1% of all unit sales were under $400,000.
By the end or 2018-19, the share of sales under $400,000 had reduced to 28.5% for houses and 39.5% for units, indicating that falling dwelling values had led to no increase in the share of sales under $400,000.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/15/sales%20mel.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/15/sales%20mel.jpg" alt="">
Source: CoreLogic 
Although Melbourne dwelling value shave fallen throughout the 20181-9 financial year there has been a further decline in the share of houses and units selling below $400,000.
The share of houses selling for less than $400,000 fell from 3.6% over the 2017-18 financial year to 2.9% over the 2018-19 financial year.
It’s a similar story for units that recorded a fall in the share of sales under $400,000 from 21.9% to 21.2% over the past two financial years.
The ongoing increases in values across regional Vic has resulted in a further decline in the share of sales under $400,000.
Over the 2017-18 financial year, 61.9% of houses and 81.2% of units sold for less than $400,000.
A year later, 56.1% of house sales and 78.5% of unit sales were less than $400,000.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/15/sales%20brisbane%20.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/15/sales%20brisbane%20.jpg" alt="">
Source: CoreLogic 
Although Brisbane dwelling values have recorded a moderate fall over the past year, the share of house sales under $400,000 has reduced while the share of units selling under that price point has increased. Over the most recent financial year, 23.2% of houses and 53.5% of units sold for less than $400,000.
By comparison, over the 2017-18 financial year 25.0% of houses and 51.5% of units sold for less than $400,000.
The share of units selling under $400,000 was last as high as it is currently in 2012-13 financial year.
Despite ongoing falls in dwelling values across regional Qld, there has been virtually no change in the share of sales below $400,000 over the past two financial years.
The share of house sales under $400,000 has held firm, tracking from 41.6% of all sales to 41.7% between the 2017-18 and 2018-19 financial years.
The share of unit sales under $400,000 has increased marginally, from 55.8% to 56.0% over the past two financial years.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/15/sales%20adelaide.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/15/sales%20adelaide.jpg" alt="">
Source: CoreLogic 
Over the 2018-19, financial year houses and units in Adelaide have recorded a reduced share of sales occurring under $400,000.
For houses, the share of sales under $400,000 fell to 35.8% from 39.6% the previous financial year while for units the share fell from 67.9% to 66.1%.
Although overall values have drifted slightly lower over the year, it hasn’t led to an increased share in sales under $400,000.
Although the majority of house and unit sales in regional SA are under $400,000, both have seen a reduced share of sales over the past year.
In June 2018, 80.8% of all house sales and 91.6% of all unit sales were under $400,000 compared to 76.1% and 88.8% respectively in June 2019.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/15/sales%20perth%20.jpghttps://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/15/sales%20perth%20.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/15/sales%20perth%20.jpg" alt="">
Source: CoreLogic 
With ongoing value declines over recent years across Perth, the share of sales under $400,000 for houses and units has increased over the most recent financial year, rising to 31.2% of houses sold from 28.7% the previous year while for units the  share has risen to 55.0% from 50.2%.
The share of house sales under $400,000 in regional WA is relatively unchanged over the past two years falling from 64.7% to 64.5%.
For units, the share of sales under $400,000 has fallen from 83.4% to 78.8%.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/15/sales%20hobart%20.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/15/sales%20hobart%20.jpg" alt="">
Source: CoreLogic 
The ongoing rises in housing values in Hobart has led to a significant decline in sales under $400,000 in recent years.
The share of houses sold under $400,000 is at a record low having fallen from 43.0% over the 2017-18 financial year to 31.8% over the most recent year.
For units the share of sales under $400,000 has fallen from 65.9% to 57.8%.
Regional Tas has also seen a decline in sales under $400,000 as values have increased.
Over the 2017-18 financial year, 77.1% of house sales and 91.0% of unit sales were under $400,000.
By the end of the following financial year, these shares had fallen to 70.3% and 85.8% respectively.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/15/sales%20darwin%20.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/15/sales%20darwin%20.jpg" alt=""> 
Source: CoreLogic 
As dwelling values have continued to fall in Darwin there has been a significant increase in unit sales under $400,000 while any increase in the share for houses has been much more muted.
Over the 2017-18 financial year, 26.8% of house sales and 61.2% of unit sales were under $400,000 compared to 26.0% and 67.4% over the most recent financial year.
In regional NT, the share of sales under $400,000 has increased over the past financial year.
Over the 2018-19 financial year, the share of houses sold under $400,000 was recorded at 39.0% and 77.1% for units.
For the 2017-18 financial year the share of sales under $400,000 were recorded at 36.4% for houses and 74.1% for units.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/15/sales%20canberra%20.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/15/sales%20canberra%20.jpg" alt="">
Source: CoreLogic 
In Canberra, the share of sales under $400,000 has continued to trend lower as values have continued to climb (albeit at a slower pace).
Over the 2017-18 financial year, 6.8% of all house sales were under $400,000 compared to 5.0% over the most recent financial year.
For units, the share of sales under $400,000 reduced from 39.6% over the 2017-18 financial year to 36.0% in 2018-19.
The next financial year could look very different to what we have seen over the 2018-19 financial year. 
We’re only in mid-August and we’ve already seen interest rates reduced twice, serviceability floors on mortgages reduced and some recent rises in dwelling values in the largest capital cities.
While a significant rise in dwelling values isn’t expected, there is an expectation of a moderate increase in dwelling values, as a result the 2019-20 financial year is expected to see fewer sales under $400,000 than those recorded in 2018-19.
CAMERON KUSHER is the head of research for the Australian branch of CoreLogic.
Kusher regularly posts on the <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/news" target="_blank">CoreLogic website</a>.
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ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Despite falling dwelling values, there’s no big rise in sales under $400,000: Cameron Kusher

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/57114/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
Late last year a Productivity Commission report found including the family home in the means test for the age pension could deliver the government A$6 billion in much-needed revenue.
Despite this, in the lead-up to the federal election, both major parties shied away from reform. Neither was willing to consider rolling back preferential treatment of the family home. This includes capital gains tax exemptions, first home owner grants and the family home’s exemption from the pension means test.
Home ownership is an important source of emotional security, which offers a strong rationale for exempting the family home from the pension means test. But as the population ages and the government’s fiscal problems grow, there’s increasing policy interest in tapping into older people’s accumulated housing wealth to support retirement.
<h2>The case for means-testing the family home</h2>
Exempting owner-occupied housing from capital gains tax can have adverse equity and efficiency impacts. The family home exemption results in the payment of income support to those with substantial wealth tied up in their principal residence. Public funds are not therefore targeted at those in most need.
The exemption of housing assets in means tests advantages pensioners with most of their wealth stored in the family home relative to those with the same wealth holdings, but spread across a more diversified portfolio. Policymakers describe this as being “horizontally inequitable” – where people of similar origin and intelligence do not have equal access to wealth.
The current system also causes inefficiencies in housing markets. It encourages “empty nester” older households to live in houses that are large relative to their household size. For income-poor older Australians, this can have perverse consequences. Equity released from downsizing could generate income to help meet acute spending needs in old age.
At the same time, wealth portfolios dominated by housing leave owners over-exposed to house price risks that they cannot hedge. Means-testing the family home would cause future homebuyers to scale back their housing investments. As a result, they would be more likely to hold more balanced wealth portfolios.
<h2>The case against means-testing the family home</h2>
The problem is, older Australians choosing to downsize or access some sort of equity-release product face tax penalties under the current system.
The net proceeds on downsizing are an assessible asset that can reduce income-support payments, while stamp duty eats into the proceeds. And a lack of suitable housing options frustrates many would-be down-sizers who want to stay living in their local communities. Equity-release products also expose owners to investment and credit risks because interest rates are variable and house prices can fall.
Encouraging people to tap the value in their home instead of accessing welfare payments requires stable housing asset values and continuing high rates of home ownership. However, there is already clear evidence of declining rates of home ownership and increasing indebtedness. These trends are not restricted to young Australians; they are also evident among those approaching retirement.
And if in future we witness the sharp declines in house prices that many countries suffered during the global financial crisis, housing equity will prove to be an unreliable asset base for welfare needs.
<h2>Is there a pathway to reform?</h2>
The challenges facing older Australians who downsize or access home-equity products can be mitigated by the introduction of financial instruments or government-backed schemes that allow owners to hedge house price risks. Stamp-duty exemptions could reduce the financial costs of downsizing.
It also needs to be recognised that current pensioners made their home purchase and investment decisions on the basis of tax-transfer rules that were expected to remain in place. In light of this, grandfathering provisions would need to be part of any reform package. This would enable transitional arrangements, preventing major disruption in housing markets and the lives of current pensioners.
It is important to note if budget savings are the main motivation, the government should look at reforming housing tax concessions. These concessions are largely received by higher-income older home owners. Curbing these concessions would be a more equitable way of achieving budget savings while also improving the resilience and efficiency of housing markets.
Rachel Ong is deputy director, Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre, Curtin University and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/rachel-ong-113482" target="_blank">here.</a>
Gavin Wood is professor of Housing, RMIT University, and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/gavin-wood-113723" target="_blank">here</a>.
Both are authors for The Conversation.
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