<p>The residential transformation of St Kilda Road is set to continue into with more new apartment plans for the sought-after boulevard.</p>

<p>Wing Tai Asia has lodged plans for a major residential tower at 464-466 St Kilda Road, replacing the former VACC House with an 18-storey mixed-use development designed around a retained heritage podium and a sculpted contemporary tower.</p>

<p>The proposal, prepared under Victoria’s Significant Residential Development with Affordable Housing pathway, would deliver 325 apartments and ground-floor retail across the prominent 4,653 sqm boulevard site in Melbourne’s St Kilda Road North Precinct.</p>

<p>The project centres on the adaptive reuse of the site’s heritage-listed VACC Building, an eight-storey office designed by Bernard Evans that has occupied the address for decades. Planning documents state the development would involve “carefully dismantling and conserving off-site the original metal fabric of the podium visible from St Kilda Road,” before reinstating it as the defining frontage of the new scheme.</p>

<p>Above the restored podium, Wing Tai is proposing a curvilinear residential tower. The scheme includes 172 one-bedroom apartments, 63 two-bedroom apartments, 66 three-bedroom apartments, and 24 four-bedroom apartments, alongside two ground-floor food and beverage tenancies fronting St Kilda Road.</p>

<p>The tower has been designed with substantial articulation and variable setbacks to minimise perceived bulk and maintain view corridors along the boulevard. Urbis, which prepared the planning report, said the design “has been significantly articulated through a curvilinear design” with “an interplay with materials, façade expression and depth” to create visual separation and visual interest.</p>

<p>The proposal also includes 254 basement car spaces, landscaped pedestrian links connecting St Kilda Road and Queens Lane, and a biophilic landscape strategy featuring canopy trees, raised planters, cascading greenery and a glass oculus pool overlooking the eastern frontage.</p>

<p>Planning documents confirm the $270.1 million development will contribute 3 per cent of project costs to the Social Housing Growth Fund as part of the application process.</p>

<p>Wing Tai acquired the St Kilda Road property in 2018 alongside Abacus Property Group for $95.38 million, before later consolidating ownership of the site. The property previously served as the Victorian Automobile Chamber of Commerce headquarters for around 60 years.</p>

<p data-end="345" data-start="110">The transformation of the St Kilda Rd boulevard is already beginning to materialise, with a number of high-profile projects recently completed, launched, or approaching launch as developers continue to back the long-term appeal of the precinct.</p>

<p data-end="689" data-start="347">Among the most notable recent completions is Louise by Samuel Property Group, just off the strip on Queens Lane, the same pocket Hirsch &amp; Faigen recently launched The Queensbury. Mirvac is too on the same street with The Albertine, which is approaching completion.</p>

<p data-end="689" data-start="347">Dexus recently secured approval for its slice of St Kilda Road, while Gurner also has approved plans for the precinct.</p>


Joel Robinson

Wing Tai unveils 325-apartment St Kilda Road tower on former VACC House site

<p>Malaysian developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/s-p-setia">SP Setia</a> is the latest to jump into St Leonards booming Transport Oriented Development precinct.</p>

<p>The developer, which has previously delivered Sapphire by the Gardens apartment development in Melbourne, identified the Atchison Street site in 2023. It filed a Scoping Report around 12 months ago, and now has revealed the designs for the new&nbsp;40-storey mixed-use tower.</p>

<p>The State Significant Development Application covers <a href="https://next-portal.urban.com.au/projects/14650/summary">20-22 Atchison Street</a>, a 1,374 sqm site positioned between St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, the project would deliver 181 apartments, above a four-storey commercial podium, five basement levels, and new public domain works along Mitchell Street. The apartment mix comprises 35 one-bedroom apartments, 39 one-bedroom-plus-study apartments, 85 two-bedroom apartments, and 22 three-bedroom residences.</p>

<p>The proposal has been lodged as a shop-top housing development under the NSW Government’s TOD planning pathway, which allows increased density around key transport infrastructure. The site sits within the recently rezoned Crows Nest Accelerated TOD Precinct.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b799673d-48e2-46b0-801a-0e33a9330100" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20site.png?VersionId=dPh0UfwfaHpbFL1R7H1cbZNbIW0CHbCC" /></p>

<p>SP Setia acquired the Atchison Street site as part of its continued expansion into the Australian apartment market. In comments made to City &amp; Country (The Edge Malaysia) in 2023, SP Setia President and CEO Datuk Choong Kai Wai described the acquisition as “a strategic move” aligned with the group’s post-pandemic market recovery strategy.</p>

<p>“Our target for this exceptional development is local and overseas buyers, including first-home buyers, downsizers and investors,” Choong said.</p>

<p>The tower has been designed as a slender vertical form rising from a mixed-use podium, with COX Architecture positioning the development as a response to the evolving St Leonards and Crows Nest skyline.</p>

<p>“The purpose of the project is to facilitate the delivery of high-quality housing at a strategically located site and deliver a built tower outcome that is consistent with the desired future character of St Leonards and aligns with the TOD controls,” the design report stated.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b1a85eee-76f7-436c-a6da-73ba827b9b13" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20entry.png?VersionId=dA9jHGPMcm.dDbwk4QfxqWiY5bfh3UVt" /></p>

<p>The podium would incorporate retail uses fronting Atchison Street, commercial tenancies, landscaped communal areas, and pedestrian improvements along Mitchell Street. Vehicle access and loading would be consolidated via Atchison Lane.</p>

<p>Residents would have access to more than 665 sqm of communal indoor and outdoor spaces, while the development proposes 96 parking spaces across five basement levels.</p>

<p>The proposal also includes a commitment for 10 per cent of residential floor space to be allocated toward affordable housing through a monetary contribution.</p>

<p>COX said the tower form responds directly to the emerging high-density character of the precinct while seeking to maximise solar access, cross ventilation, and outlook from apartments.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2163f85c-f63b-4be3-aafa-f8763976cec5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Article%20Feature%20Image%20%28Grid%29_5.png?VersionId=WiAmtIKJ6.ZQ41EtYEQ1fol7AeorKBlL" /></p>

<p>“The building is orientated towards north,” the Apartment Design Guide compliance report noted, adding that the tower’s slim form was driven by the constrained inner-urban site dimensions.</p>

<p>The design also incorporates landscaped setbacks and communal open space at podium level, intended to soften the interface with surrounding streets and improve pedestrian amenity.</p>

<p>The project adds to a growing wave of redevelopment proposals reshaping St Leonards and Crows Nest following the opening of the Sydney Metro City line and the NSW Government’s push for higher-density housing around major transport nodes.</p>

<p>Last week Stockland filed plans just down the road. They want to build a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/601-pacific-highway-st-leonards-nsw-2065">52-storey tower on Pacific Highway</a>.</p>

<p><em>Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">First look: Stockland plans 52-storey, 538-apartment St Leonards tower&nbsp;</a></em></p>


First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a> has revealed plans for a new mixed-use tower at 10 Dangar Street, Wickham, advancing a proposal that would reshape the southern gateway to Newcastle’s city centre with one of the city’s tallest residential buildings.</p>

<p>The State Significant Development proposal, now on exhibition, seeks approval for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bowline-10-dangar-street-wickham-nsw-2293">43-storey tower</a> immediately adjacent to the Newcastle Interchange. The project would deliver around 200 apartments, including 42 affordable housing dwellings, alongside 99 co-living units, a 171-room hotel, retail space, and new public domain integrated through the site.</p>

<p>The scheme marks a significant escalation of plans previously approved for the site. Urban Property Group took over the prominent 2,904 sqm parcel, where excavation and demolition had already commenced under an earlier consent for a 14-storey mixed-use development.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="58a96dd9-407f-4d20-86b4-94e4bfeef74b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20podium.png?VersionId=LGlf08pdFGAZDzvx_CXC4XakHNZRuEE0" /></p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/sjb-architects">SJB</a>, the tower has been conceived as a landmark transit-oriented development anchored to the Newcastle Interchange precinct. The proposal includes 245 build-to-sell apartments across a mix of one, two, and three-bedroom residences, as well as two penthouses. Fifteen apartments and one operational unit are earmarked for NDIS housing. The co-living component would add a further 99 units, while the podium would accommodate retail uses and hotel facilities.</p>

<p>SJB said the site presents “a valuable opportunity to anchor the precinct by setting the standard for design, active ground planes and character at the key southern gateway.”</p>

<p>The architecture responds directly to the site’s position beside major transport infrastructure and within one of Newcastle’s fastest-evolving urban renewal precincts. The tower form sits above a sculpted podium designed to frame new public spaces, including a through-site pedestrian link connecting Station Street to Hannell Street, landscaped plazas, and activated retail edges.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a7bd6ff0-f7db-4ce8-a6dc-ea56e72c6149" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20lanne.png?VersionId=xzf39VADyhj7zBQY2I9fx9vI62u2tuSb" /></p>

<p>The design report describes the project as part of the broader transition of Wickham into “a vibrant, high-quality mixed-use urban precinct” that leverages proximity to the station, open space, and regional connectivity.</p>

<p>A detailed public art strategy has also been prepared for the development. The strategy positions the project as “a transit-oriented development of state significance at the gateway to Newcastle’s city centre” and outlines a series of integrated artworks responding to Newcastle’s industrial and transport heritage.</p>

<p>Creative Road’s curatorial framework for the project, titled Unveil, draws on “stratified surfaces, carved volumes, and light-filled apertures” while referencing Newcastle’s transformation from an industrial city into a contemporary education and technology hub.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="77a882bb-14b1-4d28-99ff-9438e39508c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20site.png?VersionId=cevgo_vN0eKPK78P8YcEu3mKPLkpFqE7" /></p>

<p>The proposal is being advanced through the NSW Housing Delivery Authority pathway after being declared State Significant Development in June 2025. The accompanying scoping report states the development aims to “maximise the site’s proximity to the Newcastle Interchange by delivering transit-oriented development” while increasing housing supply and affordable housing provision within the Newcastle LGA.</p>

<p>Urban Property Group’s plans align with the long-term strategic vision established under the Wickham Master Plan, which identified the interchange precinct as suitable for substantial uplift in height and density. The current proposal would significantly intensify that vision, positioning the tower among the tallest developments proposed for Newcastle.</p>

<p>The site sits immediately north of the Newcastle Interchange, bounded by Dangar Street, Hannell Street, and Charles Street. It is surrounded by a rapidly growing cluster of residential towers and mixed-use projects that have emerged following the completion of the light rail and transport interchange.</p>


First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s latest tower at Wickham interchange

<p>Bottega House has completed settlement of a landmark riverfront site in Macquarie Street, St Lucia, representing its first major Brisbane development.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Positioned on the banks of the Brisbane River, the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/180-macquarie-street-st-lucia-qld-4067">premium site at 180 Macquarie Street</a> features uninterrupted river frontage in one of Brisbane’s most tightly held residential precincts.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The proposed development, currently under assessment with Brisbane City Council, has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/plus-studio">Plus Studio</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/mim-design">Mim Design</a> and will deliver a boutique collection of premium residences positioned specifically for owner occupiers and downsizers.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The residences are set to redefine luxury apartment living in the area, with a focus on architectural quality, refined finishes, landscape integration and elevated amenities including curated wellness facilities, resort-style pools and recreation spaces rarely seen in the local market.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Exclusive sales for the project will be led by Keenan &amp; Byrne, ahead of an anticipated launch later this year.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Bottega House Managing Director Nick Malloch said the project reflects the group’s ambition to deliver a highly curated residential offering within one of Brisbane’s most tightly held precincts.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“This is an incredibly rare riverfront opportunity and one we have approached with a long-term perspective,” Malloch said.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“Our vision from the outset was to create a boutique collection of residences that feel more like private homes than traditional apartments, with generous proportions, refined finishes and exceptional amenity throughout."</p>

<p>Malloch says there is a&nbsp;lack of premium owner-occupier stock of this quality in the market, particularly for downsizers wanting space, privacy and a true lifestyle offering without compromise.&nbsp;</p>

<p>"Demand is expected to be strong given the scarcity of premium riverfront opportunities of this nature within Brisbane’s inner-west."&nbsp;</p>


Bottega House secures landmark riverfront site in St Lucia 

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<p data-end="157" data-start="0">The arrival of the first piling rig officially marks the commencement of construction at SIERA’s new beachside apartment development, Exhale, in Northcliffe.</p>

<p data-end="459" data-start="159"><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/exhale-surfers-paradise-8-enderley-avenue-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Exhale</a>, a glass-encased tower featuring 54 large-scale apartments at 8 Enderley Avenue, is SIERA’s third Gold Coast development. It follows the recently completed PIPIS Bilinga beachfront project, which achieved suburb-record prices, and the soon-to-be-completed Chevron Island development, Tapestry.</p>

<p data-end="459" data-start="159">[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359603]</p>

<p data-end="651" data-start="461"><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/siera">SIERA</a> Founder and Managing Director Brent Thompson said the arrival of the piling rig represented a significant milestone for the development, which is scheduled for completion in late 2028.</p>

<p data-end="950" data-start="653">Over the next month, around 260 piles are expected to be installed as work progresses on the basement structure. The building is anticipated to rise above ground level early next year, before unveiling its sculptural glass curtain wall, developed in collaboration with specialist façade engineers.</p>

<p data-end="1081" data-start="952">“The façade was designed to maximise panoramic coastal views while creating a distinctive architectural identity,” Thompson said.</p>

<p data-end="1081" data-start="952">[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=355935]</p>

<p data-end="1307" data-start="1083">Designed by BDA Architecture, Exhale will comprise just 54 two- and three-bedroom residences across 26 levels, a level of low-density living rarely delivered in this beachside pocket between Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach.</p>

<p data-end="1522" data-start="1309">The project has been conceived as a resident-only building, with no short-stay accommodation permitted. SIERA says the model is intended to appeal to long-term owner-occupiers rather than transient holiday demand.</p>

<p data-end="1522" data-start="1309">[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=361052]</p>

<p data-end="1714" data-start="1524">Residences have been designed with large-format layouts and expansive glazing, with most apartments featuring more than 30 metres of glass frontage to maximise natural light and ocean views.</p>

<p data-end="1945" data-start="1716">The amenity offering spans two levels and centres on wellness and lifestyle, including a heated magnesium pool, sauna, yoga and Pilates studio, gymnasium, private dining facilities, cinema lounge, and dedicated surfcraft storage.</p>

<p data-end="1945" data-start="1716">[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359607]</p>

<p data-end="2220" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="" data-start="1947">More than half of the apartments have already sold. SIERA has also opened a sales gallery for Exhale at its Chevron Island commercial premises, near its Tapestry tower and the site of its second Chevron Island apartment development, which is slated to launch in early 2027.</p>
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<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112661]</p>


SIERA kicks off construction at Northcliffe tower Exhale

Dwelling Values

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<div>
<p>Fairly in line with market forecasts dwelling prices rose by +2.0 percent in the June 2016 quarter according to the ABS with Sydney (+2.8 percent),  Melbourne (+2.7 percent), and Brisbane (+1.1 percent).</p>
<p>Of the smaller capitals, Canberra also showed a solid increase of +2.2 percent. </p>
<p>The ABS indexes run back to September 2003 with the median house price (+98 percent) and attached dwelling price (+93 percent) having increased since that time. </p>
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<div align="justify">This latest move takes the total value of residential dwellings to beyond $6 trillion, an increase of +$1.6 trillion or +36 per cent since June 2012.</div>
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<div><span style="font-size: xx-small;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;"><span><span style="color: #7f7f7f;"><img src="/images/2016/09/23/A1.jpg" alt=""></span></span></span></span></div>
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<div align="justify">The market is now accelerating in the third quarter according to Alan Oster, Chief Economist of National Australia Bank (you see what I did there?).</div>
<div align="justify"> </div>
<div align="justify">Auction clearance rates have again approached record highs again in Sydney, and Oster predicts a substantial +4 percent gain in the harbour city for Q3, as well as +3.5 percent for Melbourne. </div>
<div align="justify"> </div>
<div align="justify">Large capital cities lead</div>
<div align="justify"> </div>
<div align="justify">House prices rose by +3.2 percent in Sydney in the June quarter, with attached dwelling prices showing a much steadier trajectory (both up and down) through the course of this cycle in rising by a further +2.0 percent. </div>
<div align="justify"> </div>
<div align="justify">After six months of house price declines Sydney's all dwellings index hit a fresh all-time high, being +83.7 percent higher than in December 2008.</div>
<div align="justify"> </div>
<div align="justify">Brisbane notched up its sixteenth consecutive quarterly gain with prices rising by +1.1 percent.</div>
<div align="justify"> </div>
<div align="justify">Since Q3 2012 prices in Brisbane have recorded a studious recovery to rise by +18 percent, while Adelaide (+13 percent) and Hobart (+13 percent) have followed a similar, if slightly more subdued, trajectory. </div>
<div align="justify"> </div>
<div align="justify">In the resources capitals prices have declined since the beginning of 2015 (click charts to expand).</div>
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<div align="justify"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">State versus state</span></strong></div>
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<div align="justify">At the state level over the year to June the mean price has continued to rise in New South Wales (+$35,400), Victoria (+$31,100), Queensland (+$10,100), and South Australia (+$16,800). </div>
<div align="justify"> </div>
<div align="justify">On the other hand the median price in Western Australia has retraced by $37,300 with a notable collapse having taken place up in the Pilbara, and there was also a decline in the Northern Territory mean price of $20,500. </div>
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<div align="justify">The total value of dwelling stock has increased significantly over the past four years in New South Wales (+$819 billion), Victoria ($+453 billion), and Queensland (+$169 billion).</div>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Supply response</span></strong></div>
<div align="justify"> </div>
<div align="justify">Finally, the total number of residential dwellings increased by +46,900 in Victoria and +40,600 in New South Wales over the 2016 financial year. </div>
<div align="justify"> </div>
<div align="justify">There are now more than 9.7 million dwellings in Australia.</div>
<div align="justify"> </div>
<div align="justify">Over the past four years Victoria (+7.9 percent) has been far more successful at increasing the total size of its dwelling stock than New South Wales (+4.9 percent). </div>
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<div align="justify">From a lower base the uplift has been considerably more pronounced in the Northern Territory (+10.4 percent) and the ACT (+10.4 percent).</div>
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<div align="justify"><a href="/images/2016/09/23/A6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div align="justify"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div align="justify"> </div>
<div align="justify">Overall, there were solid price gains in Q2 which generally matched market expectations.</div>
<div align="justify"> </div>
<div align="justify">The ABS figures are retrospective, so market participants will be watching the market closely to see whether recent gains are sustained.</div>
<div align="justify"> </div>
<div align="justify">In the 2015 calendar year in part due to cooling macroprudential regulatory measures the Sydney auction market softened considerably in the lead up to Christmas, before limping over the line. </div>
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<div align="justify">There are still a dozen weekends to go yet this year. </div>
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<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Capital city prices rose in Q2: Pete Wargent

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>The housing market is gradually responding to higher mortgage rates, tighter credit policies and affordability challenges, with the quarterly trend in capital gains moderating relative to early 2017.</p>
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<p>The July 2017 CoreLogic Home Value Index results recorded a 1.5% rise in dwelling values across the combined capital cities for the month.  Most individual capital cities recorded a rise, however, a 3.1% gain in Melbourne was a significant driver for the strong monthly result across the combined capitals.</p>
<p>The latest housing market results highlight the diversity of housing market conditions, with dwelling values down over the month in Brisbane (-0.6%), Perth (-1.3%) and Darwin (-1.2%).</p>
<h3>Index results as at July 31, 2017</h3>
<p>Click to enlarge</p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/02/2017-08-01--indices.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The recent bounce in capital gains may be partially due to a recovery from the seasonal slump in values recorded in April and May. However, other factors, such as stamp duty concessions for first home buyers in New South Wales and Victoria, may also be having a positive impact on market demand.</p>
<p>It’s still too early to measure the effect of first home buyer incentives, which went live on July 1st. However historically, the first time buyer segment has been very responsive to stimulus measures.</p>
<p>Despite the higher month-on-month capital gains in June and July, the quarterly trend rate of growth has clearly reduced.  The rolling quarterly pace of capital gains across the combined capitals has fallen from 3.6% in February earlier this year to reach 2.2% at the end of July. </p>
<p>The slowdown in growth conditions is most evident across the hottest markets, with the quarterly growth trend reducing from 5.0% in Sydney earlier this year to 2.2% at the end of last month.  Melbourne growth conditions have also slowed, though to a lesser extent, with growth easing from a 2017 quarterly peak of 5.5% to 4.2%.</p>
<p>The divergence in growth rates between Sydney and Melbourne is also evident in auction clearance rates.  Sydney’s clearance rate has been below 70% for seven of the past eight weeks, while Melbourne auction clearance rates have consistently held around the mid 70% range. </p>
<p>Melbourne appears to be benefitting from consistently high population growth which is creating strong demand for housing, as well as consistently high jobs growth and more affordable housing options relative to Sydney.</p>
<p>At the other end of the growth spectrum, Perth and Darwin have continued to see dwelling values slip lower over the month, taking the cumulative decline to 10.2% in Perth and 14.5% in Darwin since both markets peaked in 2014.</p>
<p>The ease in the rate of decline has been most visible in Perth, providing a signal that the Western Australian capital may be approaching the bottom of the downturn; listing numbers have been falling across Perth which is a positive sign of improving conditions, and transaction numbers have found a new floor at around 2,500 sales per month.</p>
<p><span class="s1">TIM LAWLESS</span><span class="s2"><em> heads up the CoreLogic RP Data research and analytics team and can be contacted<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/timlawless/" target="_blank"> here.</a></em></span></p>
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tlawless-5VLUrbAk9s

Housing market is gradually responding to higher mortgage rates

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>Almost half of Australia’s SA4 sub-regions have recorded a rise in dwelling values over the past twelve months.</p>
<p>With housing values falling across four of the eight capital cities over the past twelve months, it’s easy to forget there are some housing markets around the country that are actually seeing relatively healthy and sustainable growth conditions.  An analysis of Australia’s 88 SA4 sub-regions shows almost half (42) of them have recorded some level of growth in housing values over the past twelve months.  </p>
<p>Half of these regions have recorded a higher rate of annual capital gain relative to their five year average rate of growth, suggesting some acceleration in market conditions over the past twelve months.  In fact, 31 (35%) of the SA4 sub-regions across Australia have recorded an improvement in their rate of capital gain over the past 12 months relative to their five year average rate of growth.  </p>
<p>Regional areas of the country are much more likely to be showing positive growth conditions, with 57% of all regional areas recording a rise in dwelling values over the past twelve months, while only 39% of the capital city sub-regions recorded a rise in values. </p>
<p><strong>The ‘healthier’ conditions across the regional markets can probably be attributed to a range of factors including:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>More sustainable growth conditions during the growth phase – most regional areas of Australia have seen relatively sedate housing market conditions compared with the heroic gains across Sydney and Melbourne.  The more sustainable history of price growth has kept a lid on housing affordability and made these markets attractive to migrants, particularly those areas where economic conditions are buoyant. </li>
<li>A ripple of demand has been emanating from the largest capitals towards the satellite cities where housing is generally more affordable and lifestyle factors can be appealing.</li>
<li>Many coastal and lifestyle markets have benefited from a rise in buyer demand, either from those looking for a new residence, second home or investment option.</li>
<li>Many of the hard hit mining regions have now levelled out and are now showing some growth.</li>
</ul>
<p>Some of the capital cities are also showing a broad base to rising values as well. In Brisbane, seven of the nine SA4 sub-regions have seen a rise in values over the past year and in Adelaide three of the four SA4 sub-regions have recorded an annual gain. The opposite is true in markets where growth conditions were previously much stronger; only one of Sydney’s 15 SA4 sub-regions (Central Coast) has recorded an annual rise in dwelling values while in Melbourne only four out of nine SA4 regions have recorded an annual rise.</p>
<p>The sub-region data highlights the diversity across Australia’s housing markets.  While conditions are broadly slowing, especially around Sydney and Melbourne, many areas of the country are benefitting from a history of more sustainable growth rates, improving demand and reasonably strong economic conditions.</p>
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<p><em><span class="s1">Tim Lawless</span><span class="s2"><em> heads up the CoreLogic RP Data research and analytics team<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/timlawless/" target="_blank"><br></a></em></span></em></p>
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The regions where dwelling values are still rising: Tim Lawless

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<p>With the national housing market having experienced more than four years of ongoing value rises, affordability in certain areas is deteriorating and sales that were once considered to be at the top end of the market are now becoming more common. </p>
<p>With housing becoming more expensive, there has been a substantial rise in the number of homes selling for, or in excess of, $2 million.</p>
<p>When the current growth phase commenced in June 2012, there had been 4,103 dwelling sales of at least $2 million with these sales spread across 884 suburbs (if they have achieved this for houses and units they have been counted twice).  Over the 12 months to March 2016, there had been 11,648 house and unit sales at a price of at least $2 million with these sales recorded across 1,437 suburbs.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/07/26/Chart-1-1-580x198.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/07/26/Chart-1-1-580x198.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Looking at the number of sales of at least $2 million, the 11,668 sales were comprised of 10,184 houses and 1,464 units.  Note that the recent dip in sales is likely to be due to the preliminary nature of recent sales data.  Before the financial crisis, the number of sales at or above $2 million peaked at 6,146 sales over the 12 months to February 2008.  They then fell to a low of 3,321 sales in June 2009.  It took until November 2013 for the number of sales of at least $2 million to eclipse their pre-financial crisis level indicating that the premium housing segment was hit particularly hard during the downturn.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/07/26/Chart-2-2-580x196.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/07/26/Chart-2-2-580x196.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>While the previous analysis looked at the number of sales of at least $2 million, the second chart looks at the number of suburbs that had at least one sale over the year at or above this price point.</p>
<p>Over the past year, 1,139 suburbs had a house sale at or above $2 million and 298 suburbs had a unit sale at that price point.  If we compare this to the pre-financial crisis peak there were 1,193 suburbs that had a sale within this price point before the financial crisis with this figure falling as low as 815 suburbs over the year to June 2009. </p>
<p>It took until August 2014 for the number of suburbs with a sale at or above $2 million to eclipse the pre-financial crisis level.  With 1,437 suburbs nationally having at least one sale of at least $2 million over the past year it further highlights that housing is becoming less affordable in more suburbs.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/07/26/Chart-3-2-580x197.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/07/26/Chart-3-2-580x197.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>It is particularly evident of the deteriorating affordability of housing when you look at the number of suburbs with a sale price at or in excess of $2 million over time in NSW and Vic.  As the above chart shows, particularly in NSW and to a lesser extent in Vic, there has been a significant increase in the number of suburbs with sales of at least $2 million over recent years.  This is reflective of housing prices being pushed higher, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne, as home values rise and competition for well-located housing increases.</p>
<p>As home values continue to rise, there will continue to be some bracket creep, with the number of homes selling at $2 million or higher likely to rise further.  We would anticipate an increasing number of sales at or above $2 million over the coming years, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne.  Of course the rising prevalence of sales at this price point is systemic of the deteriorating housing affordability and increasing cost of purchasing a home.</p>
<p> <em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.</em></p>
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ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

The $2 million dollar dwelling sales surge: Cameron Kusher

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<p>Four times per year we get the unbridled pleasure of the official residential property price indexes.</p>
<div>Here, then, is a 60-second overview of the June 2017 quarter figures. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The total value of Australia's dwelling stock rose by +$631 billion or +10.4 per cent to $6.72 trillion in the 2017 financial year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>That now represents a +53 per cent increase in dwelling stock value from the $4.4 trillion recorded at the end of 2011. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>I'd take the data series back further, but since it only begins in Q3 of that calendar year, I can't.</div>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/21/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/09/21/A1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The annual stock value gains were mainly driven by the two most populous states. New South Wales (+$336 billion) and Victoria (+$215 billion) accounted for some 87 per cent of the total increase. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/21/Aus%20Dwelling%20Stock.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div>Detached houses have outperformed attached dwellings on average since 2003, reflecting rising land values and a relative scarcity of this dwelling type in the thriving, landlocked suburbs of Sydney and Melbourne.</div>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/21/A3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/09/21/A3.jpg" alt=""></div>
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<div>Over the June 2017 quarter the attached dwellings index performed strongly, however, helped along by the +11.7 per cent year-on-year gain for attached dwellings in Sydney (with the harbour city retaining a healthy weighting for that dwelling type). </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">City by city</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>There were strong quarterly residential price index gains in June 2017 for Sydney (+2.3 per cent) and Melbourne (+3 per cent), with those two capital cities recording a twin +13.8 per cent annual increase. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Reserve Bank of Australia noted in its September Board Minutes released today that Sydney market conditions had eased in recent months, as reflected in softer auction clearance results and various other timelier measures. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Annual price growth in Hobart notched up a pacy +12.4 per cent - with more to come later in the year - while there was steadier price growth in Canberra, Adelaide, and Brisbane. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Perth and Darwin recorded further declines, but the pace of decline has slowed, and more timely measures suggest that conditions appear to be levelling out somewhat in these resources capitals. </div>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/21/Resi%20Price.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/09/21/Resi%20Price.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p> </p>
<div>The mean dwelling price in Australia increased by $51,700 or +8.2 per cent in FY2017, to hit a record high of $679,100.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In New South Wales, the mean dwelling price rose to $903,700, possibly helped along by the sale of Sydney's most expensive house in the second quarter of the calendar year (the 'Elaine' estate in Point Piper, which transacted for a lazy $75 million or so - punchy). </div>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/21/A4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/09/21/A4.jpg" alt=""></div>
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<div>Finally, the number of dwellings increased by +2 per cent or +190,500 over the financial year to 9,906,100.<br><br>That's now well ahead of the rate of the official population growth, as the supply response hits its straps. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>There was a substantial increase of +2.35 per cent in Queensland's dwelling stock in FY2017, or +45,500 additional dwellings, reflecting the high volume of apartment completions in inner city Brisbane and elsewhere. The state population probably gr<span>ew by <span>~</span>75,000 over th</span>e same period. </div>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/21/A5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/09/21/A5.jpg" alt=""></div>
<p> </p>
<div>In absolute terms there was a robust uplift in the total dwelling stock of New South Wales (+50,900) and Victoria (+53,500), although in Victoria's case even this record rate of new dwelling construction is not keeping up with rollicking population growth.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>As always, the interesting stuff is in the detail, but the overview shows that Melbourne's housing market was still powering along in the second quarter of 2017, while Hobart will glide into top gear in the latter half of the calendar year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
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Australia's mean dwelling price rises 8 percent to $679,100

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>Those who find Sydney a tad rich don’t have to go too far to find major markets with greater affordability and good growth prospects.</p>
<p>Newcastle has a rising economy, a strong property market and appears to be settling into a sustained period of growth.</p>
<p>The city, about 160km north of Sydney, presents an appealing formula for property investors: relatively affordable prices, an overall solid growth record and major impetus from economic activity in and around the city.</p>
<p>It has delivered steady price rises over the past three years and in the past 12 months several Newcastle suburbs have recorded double-digit median price growth. There’s more to come, I think.</p>
<p>Key projects keeping the Newcastle economy strong include the CBD revitalisation, residential construction, upgrades to transport infrastructure and expansion of the Newcastle port.</p>
<p>Newcastle is already the world’s biggest coal export port and major upgrades to export facilities occur regularly. A $1 billion upgrade to the Newcastle Airport and RAAF Base is also under way.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">The airport – where the runway is shared with the RAAF Base Williamtown – is already a major employer, with around 3,000 military and civilian personnel working at the base.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">Newcastle is Australia’s seventh largest city and one of its oldest. It has a busy harbour, many beaches and plenty of elegant historic buildings. Despite its reputation as an industrial city, Newcastle is ranked the sixth most visited place in Australia, attracting 9.6 million visitors per year.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">It thrives as part of the Hunter Region, which is the largest economic base in NSW outside of Sydney. The Hunter region is also well known for its primary industries, notably equine breeding and winemaking. It’s also a key area for mining and power generation.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">But in recent years, much of Newcastle’s employment growth has been experienced within the services sector, especially in health and the tertiary education sector.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">Generally, Hotspotting regards Newcastle as one of Australia’s most under-rated markets. It has strong prospects as an affordable alternative to Sydney, offering an attractive beach lifestyle, proximity to the Hunter Valley and to Port Stephens, plus solid job prospects in a growing economy.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">The impetus of the State Government’s Urban Renewal Strategy for Newcastle has become clearly evident; building activity has been rising for the past 3-4 years – especially with unit construction – as the city strives towards higher-density living to cater for population growth.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">Over 100,000 new dwellings will be needed in the Lower Hunter region by 2031, according to the NSW State Government.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">The affordability of Newcastle relative to Sydney is shown in the median house prices in the Mayfield suburbs ($445,000 to $484,000), Shortland ($380,000), Wallsend ($415,000) and Waratah ($500,000), as well as the median unit prices in New Lambton and Waratah (both $380,000), and Adamstown ($405,000).</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">There are good prospects for real estate in Newcastle, based on extensive spending on infrastructure and property developments.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">Newcastle has recently been the beneficiary of investment activity, largely stimulated by the $6.55 billion State Government investment mandate covering projects such as the new light rail system on Hunter Street, the transport interchange at Wickham and construction of the Newcastle City University Campus.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">A June 2016 map of Newcastle building activity showed 28 residential projects with a combined value of $1.6 billion in the construction pipeline, with more proposals in planning. Around 3,000 apartments will be added to the city’s housing stock as a result, including 1,200 in the west end.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">Work on revitalising the CBD began in December 2014, with the $73 million transport interchange at Wickham expected to open late in 2017. The interchange will integrate trains, buses, taxis, light rail, cyclists and car drop-off and pick-ups, alongside a light rail service from Wickham to the beach.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">The Hunter Street Mall is also receiving a serious makeover, transforming the CBD into 50 percent residential and 50 percent commercial/retail. Included in the plans are an “eat street”, an entertainment precinct and around 500 apartments.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">The State Government plans to move sections of Newcastle University into the CBD to help revitalise the inner-city.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">Key projections for the university over the coming decade include increasing its student numbers to 40,000, making it one of the top three regional universities in Australia.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">Construction has started on the $95 million NewSpace campus, with the NSW Government contributing $25 million towards the cost. By 2020, the university expects to have moved its business, law and creative arts faculties entirely to the CBD.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">All this activity is helping to keep the Newcastle economy vibrant, providing a strong underpinning to a growth property market.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy"><span>T</span><em>erry Ryder is the founder of </em><a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/"><span class="s2"><em>hotspotting.com.au</em></span></a><em>. You can  </em><a href="mailto:%20%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'%3E%20%3C!--%20var%20prefix%20=%20'ma'%20+%20'il'%20+%20'to';%20var%20path%20=%20'hr'%20+%20'ef'%20+%20'=';%20var%20addy38821%20=%20'ryder'%20+%20'@';%20addy38821%20=%20addy38821%20+%20'hotspotting'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'com'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'au';%20document.write('%3Ca%20'%20+%20path%20+%20'/''%20+%20prefix%20+%20':'%20+%20addy38821%20+%20'/'%3E');%20document.write(addy38821);%20document.write('%3C//a%3E');%20//--%3E/n%20%3C/script%3E%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'%3E%20%3C!--%20document.write('%3Cspan%20style=/'display:%20none;/'%3E');%20//--%3E%20%3C/script%3EThis%20email%20address%20is%20being%20protected%20from%20spambots.%20You%20need%20JavaScript%20enabled%20to%20view%20it.%20%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'%3E%20%3C!--%20document.write('%3C/');%20document.write('span%3E');%20//--%3E%20%3C/script%3E"><span class="s2"><em>email him</em></span></a><em> or follow him on </em><a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting"><span class="s2"><em>Twitter.</em></span></a></p>
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Housing affordability and price growth prospects in Newcastle

<html><body><p>Across Brisbane, dwelling values have risen 0.9% from the onset of the pandemic in March through to November, with dwelling values now at a record high, according to the latest CoreLogic data.

Despite the recent uplift in the dwelling market across Brisbane, unit values remain 8.9% lower over the decade.

Most Queensland dwelling markets are in upswing. Grouping Queensland into 19 sub-markets, 17 have seen dwelling value increases since the onset of COVID-19. The Brisbane Inner City and Brisbane West markets were the only dwelling markets to see a fall in values during the period.

The Melbourne rental market has been particularly impacted by the pandemic. This may also end up impacting property values, and CoreLogic data suggests larger dwelling value declines are correlated with declines in rent values.
"Nationally, housing market values did not see the large decline anticipated at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Housing values fell just 1.9% between March and September before moving into a recovery trend, increasing 0.4% nationally through October and 0.8% in November," Eliza Owen, CoreLogic’s Head of Research Australia said.

"Relative to previous housing market downturns, the current decline through to November seems relatively mild, with dwelling values just 0.7% below the pre-COVID levels. There are numerous factors which have contributed to the prevention of a larger downturn in dwelling values including the institutional, coordinated response to the pandemic, which have seen low borrowing costs, added incentives for first home buyers and the extension of mortgage repayment deferrals limiting forced sales."

"Despite an initial slump in housing finance through the beginning of the year due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the year to October saw a remarkable 14.5% lift in the volume of finance secured for the purchase of property, according to ABS lending indicators."

"The post-COVID mortgage lending boost was driven by owner-occupiers including changeover buyers such as upsizers and downsizers, as well as buyers getting into the property market for the first time."

"Money lent to first home buyers saw the fastest growth rate at 35.1% in the year to October, accounting for 22.1% of lending, up from 18.8% in the year prior. Meanwhile, investor mortgage lending increased less than 1% in the same period. There are several factors that contributed to this growth in first home buyer activity, including generational trends, monetary and fiscal incentives and lower dwelling values and competition," she concluded.</p></body></html>

Across Brisbane, dwelling values have risen 0.9% from the onset of the pandemic in March through to November, with dwelling values now at a record high, according to the latest CoreLogic data.

urban.com.au

Brisbane property market on the upswing, barring the inner-city and West

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<p>The HomeBuilder scheme announced in early June is intended to boost activity in the construction sector.</p>
<p>Dwelling construction is expected to see a lagged decline in activity off the back of COVID-19, as the recently recovering trend in dwelling approvals began to slip in April, led by a decline in unit approvals.</p>
<p>However, the $25,000 incentive for building a new home, or renovating an established one, comes with a set of extensive eligibility criteria.</p>
<p>Part of the eligibility for the renovation component of the scheme is that properties must be owner-occupied, and not exceed more than $1.5 million in value.</p>
<p><strong>So where are the most owner-occupied properties under $1.5 million? </strong></p>
<p>Using CoreLogic’s extensive property database, we have put together a count of properties by region. The count of properties are those that we estimate are owner-occupied, and have a high confidence valuation of less than $1.5 million.</p>
<p>The top and bottom 10 regions by number of these properties is listed below.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/6/9/PP%20CL%20JUNE%2011.JPG" alt=""></p>
<p>The list also includes the median dwelling value for all properties across the region of measurement (not just the owner-occupied properties valued below 1.5 million), and a rough estimate of the portion of all family households that are below the $200,000 income limit for the HomeBuilder scheme.</p>
<p>These additional data points are not factored into the count of properties generated, but provide some context around typical market values and household income.</p>
<p><strong>What to make of the data</strong></p>
<p>The data suggests that the highest number of owner-occupied properties is located in the Melbourne - South East region, which spans from Mount Waverly out to Bunyip. In fact, there are four Melbourne regions that have over 100,000 owner-occupied properties estimated to be valued under $1.5 million.</p>
<p>These regions represent the fringe of the metropolitan area, and include some relatively low income areas compared to the inner-city regions of Melbourne.</p>
<p>The Perth - North West region has the second highest volume of properties. The Perth - North West region spans from part of Glendalough, up to the Yeal Nature Reserve in the north. The ‘Bottom 10’ list of regions reflects one of two characteristics.</p>
<p>For Sydney’s Northern Beaches and Eastern Suburbs, many properties surpass the $1.5 million property value cap to qualify for a renovation grant. For parts of outback and regional Australia, there is just a low population of dwellings.</p>
<p>Even where dwellings fall well below the $1.5 million threshold for a renovation grant, many of these owner occupiers will not take up the homebuilder incentive for renovations.</p>
<p>In fact, CoreLogic estimates there are about 4.4 million owner-occupied properties across Australia with a high confidence valuation below $1.5 million, but the federal government estimates the scheme may only support about 7,000 renovations.</p>
<p>While part of this is the income cap put on the scheme, it is also due to the high value of renovations that is set in the eligibility criteria. The renovations qualifying for the HomeBuilder Scheme must be worth between $150,000 and $750,000.</p>
<p>For areas where dwelling prices and incomes are relatively low, this may lead to owners over-capitalising on renovations, where they cannot recoup the cost of upgrades to the property.</p>
<p><strong>ELIZA OWEN</strong> <em>is CoreLogic's <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/news/early-market-indicators-show-first-signs-housing-market-slowdown?utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=newsletter&amp;utm_campaign=20200420_propertypulse" target="_blank">head of research</a></em></p>
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HomeBuilder, where are the most owneroccupied dwellings below $1.5 million? CoreLogic's Eliza Owen

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<p><span>EXPERT OBSERVER</span></p>
<p><span>National dwelling values are currently -8.2% lower than their peak, the largest decline in values any time over the past 30 years. </span></p>
<p><span>Throughout the period from May 1989 to May 2019, national dwelling values have been at an historic high for 56.8% of that time.</span></p>
<p>There is a significant difference in the figures throughout the capital cities and rest of state regions.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/6/20/corelogic%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: </p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/20/corelogic%201.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Source: CoreLogic</p>
<p>In fact, the national figures are at historic highs for a greater share of time than any of the individual regions have been.</p>
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<p><span>As at May 2019, dwelling values across the combined capital cities have fallen by -10.1% from their September 2017 peak. The -10.1% fall is the deepest correction throughout any period since May 1989. Since May 1989, the combined capital city index has been at an historic high for 51.0% of the months.</span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/6/20/corelogic%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: </p>
<p><span><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/20/corelogic%202.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p>Source: CoreLogic</p>
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<p><span>The combined regional market index has seen a more </span>moderate decline than the capital cities with values currently -3.0% lower than their peak. Over the 30 years since May 1989, the combined regional market index has been recorded at a peak for just over half of the months (51.2%).</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/6/20/corelogic%203.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: </p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/20/corelogic%203.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Source: CoreLogic</p>
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<p><span>Between May 1989 and May 2019, Sydney dwelling values have sat at historic highs for 44.9% of the time. The current downturn in Sydney is the deepest of any over that period with values currently -14.9% lower than their peak. The current downturn is plotting unchartered territory with prior downturns generally shorter and not particularly deep.</span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/6/20/corelogic%20sydney%20.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: </p>
<p><span><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/20/corelogic%20sydney%20.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p>Source: CoreLogic</p>
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<p><span>Regional NSW dwelling values, as at May 2019, were -4.9% </span>lower than their peak. The last time they were further away from their peak was January 2013. Over the 30 years from May 1989, regional NSW dwelling values have been recorded at historic highs for only 38.2% of the time. As the chart shows, there have been fairly regular periods in which values have fallen across the region.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/6/20/corelogic%20regional%20nsw.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: </p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/20/corelogic%20regional%20nsw.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Source: CoreLogic</p>
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<p><span>Melbourne dwelling values are currently -11.1% lower than their previous peak which is their deepest correction any time since 1980. While the city has seen a number of corrections since May 1989, they have generally been shallow with a quick recovery, the exception was the 1989 downturn where dwelling </span>values didn’t recover until 1997. Over the past 30 years, values have been at an historic high for 44.9% of the time.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/6/20/corelogic%20mel%20.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: </p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/20/corelogic%20mel%20.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Source: CoreLogic</p>
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<p><span>Over the past 30 years, dwelling values in regional Vic have been at historic highs for 47.4% of the time. Dwelling values are currently -1.1% lower than their previous peak with the falls occurring over recent months. Interestingly, values have been at historic highs over the past 30 years more regularly than those in Melbourne.</span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/6/20/corelogic%20regional%20vic.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: </p>
<p><span><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/20/corelogic%20regional%20vic.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p>Source: CoreLogic</p>
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<p><span>Brisbane dwelling values are currently -2.4% lower than their April 2019 peak. The correction to-date is fairly moderate compared to the other downturns experienced over the past 30 years. </span>Over the 30 year period, dwelling values have been recorded at their peak for 49.3% of months.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/6/20/corelogic%20brisbane.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: </p>
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<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p><span><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/20/corelogic%20brisbane.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p>Source: CoreLogic</p>
<p><span>Dwelling values in regional Qld have spent only 40.4% of their time at historic highs over the past 30 years. Although values have been at their peak fairly rarely, it is largely due to two corrections between 1994 and 1999 and the current correction which has been ongoing since 2008. Although values recorded a peak to trough fall of -12.6% by October 2012, values are yet to return to their 2008 peak and remain -5.3% lower as at May 2019.</span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/6/20/corelogic%20regional%20qld%20.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: </p>
<p><span><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/20/corelogic%20regional%20qld%20.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p>Source: CoreLogic</p>
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<p><span>Adelaide dwelling values have begun falling over recent months and as at May 2019 they were slightly below their previous peak(-0.5%). Over the past 25years,dwelling values in Adelaide have been at historic highs for 53.8% of the time. Adelaide has seen some downturns over the past 25 years however, they have typically been fairly shallow and not taken particularly long to recover.</span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/6/20/corelogic%20adelaide.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: </p>
<p><span><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/20/corelogic%20adelaide.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p>Source: CoreLogic</p>
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<p><span>In regional SA dwelling value have been below their previous peak since April 2015 and are currently -3.0% lower. The regional SA market has seen lots of short periods of value falls over the past 25 years resulting in values being at historic highs for just 32.2% of the time.</span></p>
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<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/6/20/corelogic%20regional%20sa.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: </p>
<p><span><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/20/corelogic%20regional%20sa.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p>Source: CoreLogic</p>
<p><span>Over the past 30 years, dwelling values have been at their peak for 38.5% of the time. The current decline is the deepest </span>of any over the past 30 years, -19.2% lower. There have been a number of corrections over this timeframe however, they have mostly been quite small. The current downturn is showing no signs of ending as yet and has been ongoing since the middle of 2014.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/6/20/CORELOGIC%20PERTH%20.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: </p>
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<p><span><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/20/CORELOGIC%20PERTH%20.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p>Source: CoreLogic</p>
<p><span>The current housing downturn in regional WA has seen values </span>fall by -32.5% from their peak in January 2008 (more than a decade ago). There is no evidence as yet that the declines are ending. As a result of the ongoing declining values, regional WA values have only been at historic highs for 32.1% of the time over the past three decades.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/6/20/CORELOGIC%20REGIONAL%20WA.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: </p>
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<p><span><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/20/CORELOGIC%20REGIONAL%20WA.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p>Source: CoreLogic</p>
<p><span>Following strong growth in values over recent years, Hobart </span>dwelling values have fallen by a cumulative -1.3% over the past two months. Throughout the past 30 years, Hobart dwelling values have been at an historic high for just 37.7% of the time. There have been many small downturns over the period and two quite large ones which ran for a number of years despite peak to trough falls during these downturns being less than 10%.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/6/20/CORELOGIC%20HOBART%20.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: </p>
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<p><span><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/20/CORELOGIC%20HOBART%20.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p>Source: CoreLogic</p>
<p><span>Regional Tas is the only major region of the country in which </span>values are currently at their historic high. Until the past few years there had been an ongoing deep correction in values occurring. Over the past three decades, values have been at historic highs 35.7% of the time.</p>
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<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/6/20/CORELOGIC%20REGIONAL%20TAS%20.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: </p>
<p><span><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/20/CORELOGIC%20REGIONAL%20TAS%20.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p>Source: CoreLogic</p>
<p><span>Darwin dwelling values last peaked in 2014 and they are </span>currently 29.5% lower than this peak. This is the largest and deepest correction seen in Darwin although there isn’t a  particularly long data history. Over the past 18 years, values have been at record highs for just 25.3% of the time.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/6/20/CORELOGIC%20DARWIN.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: </p>
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<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/20/CORELOGIC%20DARWIN.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Source: CoreLogic</p>
<p>Values in regional NT are volatile due to few properties, as a result values have been at a peak just 28.6% of the time over the past 18 years. Regional NT values last peaked in 2010 and they are currently -8.1% lower.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/6/20/CORELOGIC%20REGIONAL%20NT.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: </p>
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<p><span><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/20/CORELOGIC%20REGIONAL%20NT.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p>Source: CoreLogic</p>
<p><span>Dwelling values in Canberra are currently slightly lower than their peak after a decline of -0.2% in May 2019. Over the past </span>25 years, dwelling values in Canberra have been at historic highs 38.2% of the time. Over the period there have been four major downturns with the 1994 downturn running until 1999 and the 2010 downturn running until 2015. The other two downturns were reasonably short and sharp.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/6/20/CORELOGIC%20CANBERRA.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: </p>
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<p><span><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/20/CORELOGIC%20CANBERRA.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p>Source: CoreLogic</p>
<p><span>The results may well be viewed as somewhat surprising.<br></span></p>
<p><span>In that, there is a sense that property values seem to be rising more often than not yet across the individual regions the majority have seen values below their previous peak more often than not.</span></p>
<p><span>When downturns have occurred they are often small and</span><span>values return to previous peaks fairly quickly. The current downturn for a number of regions is unprecedented in terms of the magnitude and length of declines. Given this it could be a number of years after values begin to recover until they return</span><span>to their previous highs.</span></p>
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<p><em><span>CAMERON KUSHER </span> is the head of research for the Australian branch of CoreLogic</em></p>
<p><em>Kusher regularly posts on the <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/news" target="_blank">CoreLogic website</a>.</em></p>
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How often have values been at their peak? Cameron Kusher

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>Dwelling value drops of -7.2% over the year to April 2019 highlights just how easy it can be to forget the diversity across property market performance as some regions continue to deliver solid growth conditions while others drag averages lower.</p>
<p>Over the 12 months to April 2019, Adelaide, Hobart and Canberra were the only capital cities in which dwelling values haven’t fallen. Although value declines have been prevalent, there are certain SA2 regions which have significantly outperformed the broad capital city and equally many regions have significantly underperformed.</p>
<p><strong> Sydney:</strong> With dwelling values having fallen by -10.9% over the year to April 2019, only two SA2 regions, both of which are located in the Blue Mountains, have recorded annual growth. A further region of the Blue Mountains has recorded one of the most moderate declines along with two regions on the Northern Beaches. In terms of the Sydney regions with the greatest value declines, SA2 regions in the Inner South West are prevalent on the list.</p>
<p><strong>Melbourne:</strong> Over the 12 months to April 2019, dwelling values have reduced by 10.0%. Only two SA2 regions have recorded a rise in values and the five regions with the strongest annual change were located close to the city centre, demonstrating some strength in the established unit market. On the other hand, the five regions that have recorded the greatest annual fall were all located in Melbourne’s Inner East.</p>
<p><strong> Brisbane:</strong> Dwelling values are down marginally over the past year, having fallen by -1.9%. The top five SA2 regions with the strongest value growth over the past year are all located in the west of the city and are either within or towards Ipswich. The regions with the largest value falls are much more varied with some emphasis around areas with a mix of residential and industrial land uses featuring on the list.</p>
<p><strong>Adelaide:</strong> Over the past year, dwelling values have continued to rise (marginally) up 0.3% over the year. The strongest performing regions are all located either within the Central and Hills region or the North region of the city. The regions with the largest annual value falls are more mixed, with two situated in the Central and Hills region, two in the North and one in the South.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/5/9/May%209%20Property%20Pulse%202.JPG" target="_blank">Click</a> to enlarge.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/5/9/May%209%20Property%20Pulse%202.JPG" alt=""></p>
<p><strong>Perth:</strong> Dwelling values have been falling since mid 2014 and have declined by a further -8.3% over the 12 months to April 2019. Given this it is no surprise only one SA2 region of the city has recorded an increase in values over the year. The regions with the most moderate declines were all located in either the North West or North East of the city. Conversely, the 5 regions with the largest value falls over the past year were all in either Perth’s South West or Mandurah highlighting a fairly distinct area in which the largest falls are occurring.</p>
<p><strong>Hobart:</strong> Values have increased by 3.8% over the past year which is the largest annual increase of all capital cities. The areas with the strongest value growth over the year are quite diverse both geographically and based on the value of dwellings however, 3 are situated in the North East. The list includes some of the most affordable and most expensive regions of the city. Four of the five regions with the most moderate value change over the year are located in the city centre and are some of the most expensive regions of the city.</p>
<p><strong>Darwin:</strong> Dwelling values have been falling since mid2015 and have declined by a further -7.1% over the past year. With such weak conditions only one region of the city (Wagaman) recorded an increase in values. The regions with the most moderate value declines were typically amongst the more expensive areas of the city. Conversely, the areas in which value falls were greatest were generally located close to the city centre however, highlighting the ongoing weakness across the inner city apartment sector.</p>
<p><strong>Canberra: </strong>Over the 12 months to April 2019, dwelling values in Canberra have risen by 2.5%. Four of the five regions with the greatest value increase over the past year were located in the northern area of the city around Belconnen and Gungahlin. Meanwhile three of the five weakest markets over the year were also in the north of the city while some of the weakest performers were amongst the most affordable regions of the city. With dwelling values falling broadly across the capital cities, there are still some precincts where values are continuing to trend higher, although the list of positive growth areas has shrunk over the past year.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/5/9/May%209%20Property%20Pulse.JPG" target="_blank">Click</a> to enlarge.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/5/9/May%209%20Property%20Pulse.JPG" alt=""></p>
<p>Looking to the data there is some suggestion that in individual cities certain geographic areas and value points are more likely to still be seeing values increase than others.</p>
<p><em><span>CAMERON KUSHER</span> is the head of research for the Australian branch of CoreLogic</em></p>
<p><em>Kusher regularly posts on the <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/taxonomy/corelogic-people/cameron-kusher" target="_blank">CoreLogic website</a>.</em></p>
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