Roseville is poised for a wave of new apartment development following the NSW Government's rezoning of land around Roseville Station under its Transport Oriented Development program.

The new planning controls have unlocked significant development potential within walking distance of the station, with a number of sites expected to be amalgamated and redeveloped in the coming years as developers seek to take advantage of the increased density allowances.

One of the more restrained developments in the precinct, and set among the first to be delivered having commenced well before the recent changes, is Hyecorp's Juliet. The boutique apartment project is already well under construction and remains on track to welcome residents by the end of the year, offering a markedly different proposition to many of the larger-scale developments now likely to emerge across the suburb.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278194]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/juliet-roseville-64-pacific-highway-roseville-nsw-2069">Juliet</a> will comprise just&nbsp;34 one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments opposite Roseville Station. For Hyecorp, which has delivered projects across Sydney's Lower North Shore for more than three decades, Roseville presented a rare opportunity to address a growing gap in the market.

"<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/roseville-nsw-2069">Roseville</a> has long been one of the North Shore's most tightly held and desirable suburbs, offering a unique combination of village charm, established greenery, excellent transport connections, and proximity to some of Sydney's best schools and lifestyle amenities," Hyecorp said.

"We recognised a growing demand from local homeowners seeking to downsize without leaving the community they have built their lives around. The location presented a rare opportunity to create homes that cater specifically to that buyer profile."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278196]

The six-level development has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/pbd-architects">PBD Architects</a> as a collection of residences that feel more like homes than apartments. The brief centred generous floorplans, abundant natural light, quality finishes, and strong connections to outdoor space.

PBD Architects drew inspiration from Roseville's established garden suburb character, creating a building that sits comfortably within its surroundings rather than dominating them. The architecture incorporates natural materials, soft forms, layered landscaping, expansive balconies, and generous setbacks to strengthen the connection between residents and the suburb's leafy environment.

"The focus was on designing spacious, house-like residences for discerning owner-occupiers and downsizers who wanted to remain on the North Shore without compromising on comfort, privacy, or design," PBD said.&nbsp;

"Every apartment was to feel considered, timeless, and highly functional."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278195]

Inside, residences feature engineered timber flooring, stone kitchen benchtops and splashbacks, integrated Fisher &amp; Paykel appliances, ducted air conditioning, and large outdoor entertaining areas designed to take advantage of district and treetop views.

Residents will also have access to a rooftop barbecue and lounge area, alongside practical amenities including parcel lockers, EV charging capability, bicycle storage, a dog wash bay, and a basement car wash facility.

The majority of purchasers so far have been local owner-occupiers from Roseville, Lindfield, Chatswood, Killara, and the broader Upper North Shore, many of whom are transitioning from larger family homes.

"Buyers are looking for spacious, house-like apartments that allow them to downsize without feeling like they are sacrificing comfort or functionality," Hyecorp noted.

"They value large kitchens, generous living areas, ample storage, quality finishes, secure parking, lift access, and low-maintenance living."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278204]

Juliet sits directly opposite Roseville Train Station and within walking distance of Roseville Village, while Chatswood's retail and dining precinct is only minutes away. The development is also surrounded by some of Sydney's most established schools, including Roseville College, Ravenswood, Pymble Ladies' College, and Knox Grammar, as well as nearby parklands and golf courses.

Juliet is currently more than 75 per cent sold ahead of its anticipated completion in late 2026.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=7395]

Joel Robinson

Juliet to sit quietly amid Roseville apartment boom

Sherpa Property Group has unveiled the third instalment of its Flourish series, securing full approval for the two-tower, $500 million Flourish Soleira development in Palm Beach.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-1150-1154-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a> will rise from a prominent site in the commercial heart of Palm Beach, the long-time home of Cash Converters and a range of local retailers.

The project will introduce a new retail and dining precinct at ground level, beneath 286 apartments.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370959]

“We’re very committed to not only providing affordable residential offerings that are much needed in Palm Beach, but also delivering a vibrant new commercial heart that complements the extraordinary growth of the southern Gold Coast,” Sherpa Property Group founder Christie Leet said.

The development will sit under Sherpa's Flourish brand, which is aimed at providing a pathway into the beachside suburb for locals, first-home buyers and downsizers. In a move designed to assist first-home buyers entering the market, Sherpa has reserved all one and two-bedroom, one-bathroom apartments exclusively for eligible first-home buyers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370964]

“Our vision through Flourish is to create a vibrant retail and lifestyle focal point within the Palm Beach centre zone, delivering thriving communities underpinned by lifestyle-rich locations,” Leet said.

“So far, Flourish has been an incredible success, and we hope to carry this momentum as we progress the next two Flourish projects in Palm Beach.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=371430]

Located across 1150-1164 Gold Coast Highway and 3 Sixth Avenue, the development will comprise two towers. The northern tower will deliver 154 apartments, while the southern tower will add a further 132 residences, helping address ongoing demand for new apartments in the tightly held coastal suburb.

Flourish Soleira will also feature the most extensive rooftop amenity offering ever delivered in Palm Beach.

The two towers will be connected by a skybridge, with residents gaining access to a rooftop recreation deck featuring a full-width swimming pool, hot and cold plunge pools, wellness spaces, a gymnasium, private dining facilities, massage treatment rooms, barbecue areas, a basketball court, golf simulator, indoor and outdoor dining spaces, sun lounges and extensive landscaping.

LPS Group is expected to start construction later this year.

Sherpa is already well advanced on construction of its debut Flourish project, Flourish Amargo, located just around the corner from Soleira. Meanwhile, Flourish Oasis, positioned opposite Amargo, recently commenced construction and has nearly sold out its collection of 47 apartments.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150017]

Sherpa unveils $500m mixed-use Palm Beach precinct, Flourish Soleira

Are mortgage holders set to get a reprieve from the RBA in 2026?

Big Four bank NAB believes so. They are now expecting the next move from the RBA to be a cut, rather than a hike, which they had pencilled in for August. They are unsure of the timing of the cut however, they note in their latest&nbsp;NAB Economics RBA Watch.

NAB Chief Economist, Dr Sally Auld, said recent data suggests the economy has lost momentum and the outlook for rates has shifted, noting that the broader economic backdrop has changed since earlier in the year.

“The next move in the cash rate is likely to be down, but the timing is uncertain," Dr Auld said.

"In February, growth was above trend, the economy was operating above capacity and there was uncertainty over the restrictiveness of rates. None of these conditions exist today,” she outlined.

Dr Auld said recent data pointed to softer momentum across the economy while acknowledging that at the same time, uncertainty remains a key feature of the outlook.

“Both Q1 GDP data and the NAB business survey suggest momentum in the economy has slowed, meaning that growth has likely peaked for the cycle. That said, we are cognisant there is still considerable uncertainty around the outlook, both with respect to activity and inflation.”

Dr Auld said inflation risks and labour market outcomes would be important to watch.

“On the prices side, we are still forecasting above target core inflation through to mid-2027. Margins will compress and weaker labour market outcomes are a risk.”

She said tighter financial conditions are expected to weigh on housing and activity.

“Tighter financial conditions will be reflected in a slowing in house price growth and housing credit growth. In summary, we have greater conviction that the next move in rates is down, but less conviction on the timing.”

Mortgage relief? NAB forecasts RBA rate cut, not hike, after softer economic conditions

A local downsizer has splashed $6.5 million on a penthouse in Perifa's Alex &amp; Willow development in Crows Nest. 
&nbsp; 
The purchaser sold their long-held family home in the area before embarking on a six-month search for the right apartment. After inspecting a range of options across the Lower North Shore, the buyer returned to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/alex-willow-crows-nest-82-90-alexander-street-crows-nest-nsw-2065">Alex &amp; Willow</a>. 
&nbsp; 
The buyer profile reflects the project’s broader purchaser mix. <a>Alex &amp; Willow</a> has attracted predominantly local downsizers looking to transition from larger homes without compromising on space or quality, alongside a smaller cohort of upsizers and investors drawn to the project’s location and design credentials. 
&nbsp; 
The milestone sale comes as the project, developed by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/perifa">Perifa</a>&nbsp;and delivered by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/versatile-made-construction">Versatile Construction</a>, both part of Versatile Group, reaches 60 per cent sold.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6680 project_image_fid=371325] 
&nbsp; 
Eddie Mansour, Managing Partner of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/ray-white-projects">Ray White Projects</a>, said the result demonstrates not only a headline price but also depth of demand. 
&nbsp; 
“This is an exceptional outcome and a clear reflection of sustained buyer demand for premium, well-located downsizer product,” Mansour said.

“We’re seeing a consistent pattern of local homeowners selling family residences and reinvesting into high-quality apartments that allow them to remain within their community. Alex &amp; Willow has resonated strongly with this group because it offers genuine scale, thoughtful design and immediate proximity to the village.” 
&nbsp; 
The sale reflects a broader and consistent trend of local downsizers actively seeking high-quality, low-maintenance residences close to established village centres. Agents report that demand for this product type has remained resilient, particularly where developments offer a rare combination of scale, design quality and walkable amenity. 
&nbsp;&nbsp; 
Fabrizio Perilli, Managing Director of Perifa and Versatile Group, said the sale marks a defining moment for the project. 
&nbsp; 
“The penthouse sale is a strong endorsement of the quality we have delivered, alongside our partners, and the clear demand from local downsizers for premium, boutique residences in this location,” Perilli said.&nbsp; 
&nbsp; 
“Most importantly, we’re proud to see the Alex &amp; Willow community beginning to take shape. As we move closer to completion, we’re looking forward to welcoming residents and seeing the project come to life.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6680 project_image_fid=338516] 
&nbsp; 
Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/nettletontribe">Nettleton Tribe</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/richards-stanisich">Richards Stanisich</a>, Alex &amp; Willow is a boutique collection of generously sized two- and three-bedroom residences in the heart of Crows Nest village.&nbsp;

Completion is slated for early 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=6680]

Alex & Willow, Crows Nest penthouse sells off the plan for $6.5 million

Fresh from launching the first stage of its Wollongong precinct, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/keira-place-wollongong-120-122-smith-street-wollongong-nsw-2500">Keira Place</a>, builder-developer Urban Property Group has unveiled plans for the next phase of the masterplanned community.

Now on public exhibition through the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority pathway is a State Significant Development Application for a further 657 homes on the prominent gateway site opposite Beaton Park.

The proposal comprises three buildings, including two build-to-sell towers rising 25 and 30 storeys, delivering 391 apartments, alongside a 12-storey co-living building with 266 residences, making it one of the largest co-living proposals currently planned in regional New South Wales.

Of the apartments proposed in the build-to-sell towers, the majority, 310, are two-bedroom dwellings. The balance comprises 44 one-bedroom apartments and 37 three-bedroom residences. Apartment sizes range from around 50 sqm for one-bedroom homes to approximately 90 sqm for three-bedroom apartments.

<img alt="Smith St" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="19347059-1612-41a0-9c74-b86a657237f8" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-10%20at%2010.02.18%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sWXnaCcA.cIC6N8YT1dg5pJ2e1V3Z6z7" />

The submission says the proposal has evolved significantly from its original Housing Delivery Authority application following extensive consultation with the State Design Review Panel and Wollongong City Council.

The final scheme has been designed to align with the emerging vision for the Flinders Street Precinct, an area identified by Council as a future high-density mixed-use neighbourhood capable of accommodating substantial housing growth close to transport, employment and community infrastructure.

According to the design report prepared by COX Architecture, the development aims to "deliver a built outcome consistent with the future character of the Wollongong CBD while responding to the site's unique constraints and opportunities."

"Our vision for the next phase of the site evolution in Wollongong is grounded in three design pillars that guide the design response: place, natural environment and celebration," COX said.

"Inspired by its surroundings and grounded in the stories of place on Wodi Wodi Country, the design proposal acknowledges the established character of its setting while creating a unique and timeless identity that sits harmoniously within it.

"The design proposal responds to its specific site conditions, acknowledging the vegetation, climate, wind conditions and solar access of the site."

The architecture responds directly to the site's position between Wollongong's urban core and its natural landscape setting.

COX identified views towards Mount Keira and the Illawarra Escarpment as defining features of the site, while the upper levels of the towers will also capture expansive views across the city and out to the Pacific Ocean.

The design team has positioned the tallest buildings closer to the rail corridor, where overshadowing impacts can be better managed while establishing a landmark built form on the northern approach into the city.

<img alt="Smith St" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="79580d5b-500c-4ebf-9629-797146a4a694" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-10%20at%209.51.59%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=WbTB1EKSG.KDfsfz0F3wp1QVa2oCMGR5" />

Urban Property Group secured the 11,000 sqm Smith Street site in 2022 and has since progressed plans for the broader Keira Place precinct.

Construction recently commenced on the first stage of Keira Place, which will deliver 150 apartments across two residential buildings, including 27 affordable housing apartments and 18 specialist disability accommodation dwellings, alongside activated ground-floor retail and commercial space.

Urban Co-CEO Patrick Elias said the commencement of construction marked a significant milestone for Wollongong and reflected the developer's long-term commitment to regional cities.

"Today's groundbreaking is about turning approvals into homes and moving quickly to deliver much-needed housing in Wollongong's city centre," Elias said.

"Keira Place will provide a diverse mix of homes close to jobs, transport and services, while setting a high benchmark for quality, durability and consumer protection."

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/groundbreaking-marks-start-of-construction-at-keira-place-in-wollongong-cbd">Groundbreaking marks start of construction at Keira Place in Wollongong CBD</a>

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

Urban Property Group unveils trio of towers for next stage of new Wollongong precinct, Keira Place

Dwelling Market

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
The CoreLogic Stratified Hedonic Index highlights the performance of the housing market across three segments. These three segments are: the 25% of most affordable dwellings, the 50% of dwellings representing the middle market and the 25% of most expensive dwellings. The analysis within this report is measuring the six month annualised change in dwelling values.
Nationally, from the market peak to the end of May 2019, the most affordable quarter has seen values fall by -1.4%, the middle of the market has seen values fall -6.6% and the top quarter has fallen by -11.6%. The -1.4% fall across the lower quartile is the largest since Sep-18, the -6.6% fall across the middle of the marketis slightly down on the previous month while the -11.6% fall across the top quartile is the second consecutive month in which falls have slowed and the smallest annual decline since Dec-18.
<ul>
<li>
Combined capital cities </li>
</ul>
Low quartile values are -5.1% lower over the year, middle market values have fallen -8.3% and top quartile is -12.4% lower. The -5.1% fall is the largest since September 2008 and the -12.4% fall is the smallest since December 2018.
<ul>
<li>
Combined regional markets </li>
</ul>
Values across the most affordable quarter of properties are -1.2% lower compared to a -1.6% fall across the middle of the market and a 6.7% fall across the top quartile (the largest fall since January 2012).
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/National20190617.PNG" alt="National20190617.PNG" width="713" height="237" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0bfdb83b-f326-4cbf-b15b-6c64474a89cb" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/National20190617.PNG">
 
<ul>
<li>
Sydney </li>
</ul>
The low quartile has recorded a value fall of -2.0% (smallest fall since Oct-18) compared to -11.9% across the middle of the market (smallest fall since Jan-19) and -12.5% across the top quartile (smallest fall since Nov-18).
<ul>
<li>
Regional NSW </li>
</ul>
Values across the most affordable quarter of properties are 0.6% lower (slowest growth since Nov-18), the middle of the market has recorded falls of -4.6% and the top quartile has recorded falls of -9.0%.
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/NSW20190617.PNG" alt="NSW20190617.PNG" width="734" height="244" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b39ee5af-7567-4a32-a842-77ce9fd854d0" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/NSW20190617.PNG">
 
<ul>
<li>
Melbourne </li>
</ul>
The -13.8% fall across the most expensive quarter of dwellings is the smallest since Nov-18 while the middle of the market has seen values fall -10.1% (smallest fall since Jan-19) and the most affordable quarter has recorded a value fall of -0.9% (smallest fall since Dec-18).
<ul>
<li>Regional Vic </li>
</ul>
The most affordable quarter of properties have increased in value by 0.8% while the middle of the market has increased by 1.2% (slowest rate of growth since Sep-16) and the top quartile has fallen by -6.4% (the largest fall since Feb-12).
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/VIC20190617.PNG" alt="VIC20190617.PNG" width="743" height="247" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="46974346-63a4-4781-aa20-b5807fc89b10" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/VIC20190617.PNG">
 
<ul>
<li>
Brisbane </li>
</ul>
Values have fallen by -0.7% across the most affordable quarter of dwellings compared to a -3.3% fall across the middle of the market (largest fall since Feb-12) and a -6.2% fall across the most expensive quarter of properties (largest fall since Jan-12).
<ul>
<li>
Regional Qld </li>
</ul>
The most expensive quarter of dwellings fell -3.5% compared to a 0.7% fall across the middle of the market and a -0.3% fall across the most affordable quarter of the market.
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/QLD.PNG" alt="QLD.PNG" width="763" height="251" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="699037bf-9816-488d-afb6-75030cf5eed7" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/QLD.PNG">
 
<ul>
<li>
Adelaide </li>
</ul>
The most affordable quarter of dwellings have recorded growth of 0.9% (strongest growth since May-18) while the middle of the market has recorded a 0.3% increase and the top quarter of properties have recorded a fall of -2.7%, their largest fall since Jan-13.
<ul>
<li>
Regional SA </li>
</ul>
The most affordable quarter of properties have increased by 0.3% over the past year (the strongest growth since Aug-18) compared to a 3.7% increase across the middle of the market and a 0.6% increase across the most affordable quarter of properties.
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/SA20190617.PNG" alt="SA20190617.PNG" width="718" height="239" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3f9d5da2-f1aa-45c7-80e9-b777ec1635bd" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/SA20190617.PNG">
 
<ul>
<li>
Perth </li>
</ul>
Values across the most affordable quarter of properties are -2.4% lower over the year compared to an -8.9% fall across the middle of the market and an -11.6% fall across the most expensive quarter of properties.
<ul>
<li>
Regional WA </li>
</ul>
The most affordable quarter of the market recorded a decline in values of -1.8% compared to -7.5% across the middle of the market and a -13.1% fall across the most expensive quarter, the largest fall since Jan-15.
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/WA20190617.PNG" alt="WA20190617.PNG" width="737" height="245" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="476168d8-b9aa-4c98-be7a-b3bacd3e5834" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/WA20190617.PNG">
 
<ul>
<li>
Hobart </li>
</ul>
The most affordable quarter of properties recorded a value increase of 4.6% over the year (the slowest rate of growth since Jun-16) compared to a 0.6% increase across the middle of the market (slowest growth since Jun-16) and a -0.5% fall across the most expensive properties (largest fall since Feb-15).
<ul>
<li>
Regional Tas </li>
</ul>
The most affordable quarter of properties recorded an 8.8% annual increase (strongest growth since Nov-18) while the middle of the market recorded growth of 3.8% and the most expensive quarter recorded 3.0% growth over the year.
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/TAS20190617.PNG" alt="TAS20190617.PNG" width="781" height="260" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="991bb60c-c24a-4e5b-9a3e-9e22a1c2764d" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/TAS20190617.PNG">
 
<ul>
<li>
Darwin </li>
</ul>
The most expensive quarter of properties across the city have fallen in value by -16.8% over the past year (largest fall since May-16) compared to a -17.0% fall across the middle of the market (largest fall on record) and a -14.6% fall across the most affordable quarter of the market (largest fall since Nov-18).
<ul>
<li>
Regional NT </li>
</ul>
The most affordable quarter of properties have recorded an increase of 11.3% over the past year, their largest increase since Apr-17 while the middle of the market has seen values rise 1.9% and the most expensive quarter of properties have fallen by -0.2%.
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/NT20190617.PNG" alt="NT20190617.PNG" width="786" height="261" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="69900538-8b47-43d2-82e5-390f94ceacb6" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/NT20190617.PNG">
 
<ul>
<li>
Canberra </li>
</ul>
The most expensive quarter of properties have recorded no change in value over the past year while the middle of the market has recorded growth of 0.7% (slowest growth since Aug-16) and the most affordable quarter has recorded value growth of 1.3% (slowest growth since Jun-16).
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Canberra20190617.PNG" alt="Canberra20190617.PNG" width="750" height="256" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="11bca82d-0807-4bca-bb2e-38b729584b6e" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Canberra20190617.PNG">
 
Over the past year, most capital cities and regional markets have been recording value declines. While values are broadly continuing to fall, the rate of these falls on a monthly basis has been slowing. After having seen much larger corrections than the other two segments (following a larger growth phase), the most expensive segment of the market is seeing its rate of decline slow.
This is a trend that has played out before whereby premium housing values fall the fastest initially but also sees the falls cease earlier than other market segments. It is still early days but with the housing market expected to trough in late 2019, the premium housing sector may find a floor first and start to show some level of recovery before the other segments.
CAMERON KUSHER is the head of research for the Australian branch of CoreLogic
Kusher regularly posts on the <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/news" target="_blank">CoreLogic website</a>.
</body></html>

ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Value declines on most expensive properties are slowing: Cameron Kusher

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVER
The ABS quarterly survey “Building Activity” provides detail on the non-residential building sector. Here we reassess conditions and prospects for the sector.
Hereafter ‘building’ refers to ‘non-residential building’.
<a href="/images/2016/10/31/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-31%20at%201.52.08%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a> <img src="/images/2016/10/31/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-31%20at%201.52.08%20PM.png" alt="">
In summary, private building activity weakened over the first half of 2016, puncturing a five year upswing. Our assessment remains that the near-term decline in private activity will be relatively modest, a view supported by the recent improvement in approvals and commencements.
By contrast, total building activity (which includes public works) is likely to be resilient. Notably, the public sector has loosened the purse strings, committing to much needed social infrastructure. Public building approvals and commencements have lifted sharply from their lows.
<a href="/images/2016/10/31/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-31%20at%201.54.02%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/31/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-31%20at%201.54.02%20PM.png" alt="">
State by state, conditions are varied and more nuanced than a mining / non-mining divide, as discussed below.
Activity: Real private building activity has weakened in 2016, falling by 4.2% in Q1, followed by a flat Q2. That follows a 31% expansion in the five years to end 2015, including a 7.8% increase in 2015. The level of activity in the Q4 2015 was 4.6% above the previous peak of end 2008, ahead of the GFC impacts.
<a href="/images/2016/10/31/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-31%20at%201.56.13%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/31/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-31%20at%201.56.13%20PM.png" alt="">
Public works in 2016 are in the beginnings of an upswing. Activity rebounded by 6.1% in Q1 and rose a further 11.9% in Q2. Prior to this, activity declined through 2011 to 2015, unwinding the 2009 fiscal stimulus package.
Total real building work was flat over the first half of 2016, with a 2.2% fall in March reversed by a 2.4% June, to be broadly unchanged from a year ago (+0.6%).
<a href="/images/2016/10/31/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-31%20at%201.57.56%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/31/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-31%20at%201.57.56%20PM.png" alt="">
Total commencements strengthened in 2015/16, increasing by 14% to $33.6bn, a rise of $4.1bn, largely reversing the 16% decline in 2014/15. In the June quarter, commencements were $8.5bn, in line with the annual pace.
The public sector led the way in 2015/16, with commencements up 41% to $8.8bn, (+$2.6bn), with rebounds in health, education and strength in social buildings more generally. This has public commencements at their highest level since 2011/12.
Private commencements also rose in 2015/16, +7%, following a 16% fall the year prior, centred on: retail; entertainment &amp;recreation; and accommodation.
The pipeline of work outstanding peaked at a relatively high level in mid-2014, at $27bn in total ($21bn for the private sector). The pipeline was progressively reduced, moderating to $19bn by the end of 2015 ($14bn private). Over the past half year, the overall pipeline of work stabilised, edging up to $20bn, while that for private projects edged lower, down to $13bn. 
<a href="/images/2016/10/31/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-31%20at%201.59.05%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/31/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-31%20at%201.59.05%20PM.png" alt="">
<div class="page" title="Page 2">
<div class="section">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
Commencements and approvals 
Private sector commencements were valued at $24.9bn in 2015/16, an increase of 7% on the year prior, +$1.6bn, partially reversing the 16% decline in 2014/15. The rebound was centred on: retail, +$0.9bn; entertainment &amp; recreation, +$0.7bn; and accommodation, $0.6bn.
<a href="/images/2016/10/31/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-31%20at%202.01.06%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/31/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-31%20at%202.01.06%20PM.png" alt="">
 
Private commercial building commencements (centred on retail and offices) have improved following a sharp fall in 2014/15. In 2015/16, commencements for the segment were valued at $11.0bn, +10% on the year before. That is below the 2013/14 outcome of $13.0bn and the earlier peak of $15.7bn in 2007/08. 
For retail, while consumer spending has been lacklustre at the national level, commencements are elevated supported by increased competition. In the office segment, commencements have stabilised at a low level, +6% in 2015/16, after falling sharply in 2014/15, down 39%. The outlook for offices is heavily influenced by the mining / non-mining growth divide.
<a href="/images/2016/10/31/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-31%20at%202.03.48%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/31/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-31%20at%202.03.48%20PM.png" alt="">
 
An area of strength is ‘social infrastructure’. Within this segment upswings are evident in accommodation (including hotels and student apartments) and aged care facilities, as well as strength in entertainment &amp; recreation, and a rebound in education. In 2015/16, commencements for social infrastructure rebounded by 9%, to $9.8bn, only 5% below the historic high of 2013/14 and up from $5.8bn in 2007/08. The segment now accounts for 40% of total private commencements. 
The more timely building approvals data, which is available to August, confirm that we are likely past the low point in this cycle. 
Private building approvals for the 12 months to August are 3% above those for the year before, reflecting gains in social infrastructure, +8%, and industrial, +17%. However, private building approvals remain 10% below the recent peak, which was for the year to February 2014.
<a href="/images/2016/10/31/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-31%20at%202.05.01%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/31/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-31%20at%202.05.01%20PM.png" alt="">
 
State-by-state 
Building conditions across the states are quite varied and the outlook is more divergent than is implied by a simple mining / non-mining growth divide. 
As at the national level, the importance of social infrastructure projects, a lift in public investment, and resilience in the retail sector add nuances to the state-by-state picture.
<a href="/images/2016/10/31/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-31%20at%202.06.31%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/31/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-31%20at%202.06.31%20PM.png" alt="">
 
The value of building work nationally grew by 2.3% over the year to the June quarter 2016, +$0.2bn (although in real terms, work was broadly flat, up 0.6%). By state, the value of building work made solid gains in NSW and Qld, as well as Tasmania, with largely offsetting falls in Victoria, WA and South Australia. 
Commencements strengthened in 2015/16, up $4.2bn nationally, a move that was centred on gains in Qld , as well as a strengthening of public works in the smaller states.
<a href="/images/2016/10/31/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-31%20at%202.08.03%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/31/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-31%20at%202.08.03%20PM.png" alt="">
 
In Qld, commencements rebounded partially in 2015/16, up $1.9bn, following a sharp fall in 2014/15. It was private social infrastructure, as well as public works, that led Qld commencements higher in 2015/16, including: accommodation, aged care facilities, education, and entertainment &amp; recreation. 
Public building commencements in the smaller states and in the territories jumped to $2.7bn in 2015/16, up $1.6bn on 2014/15. A partial rebound in NSW public commencements, +$0.7bn, was another mover in 2015/16. 
<a href="/images/2016/10/31/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-31%20at%202.09.10%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/31/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-31%20at%202.09.10%20PM.png" alt="">
<div class="page" title="Page 3">
<div class="section">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
On a state by state basis, current conditions and the near-term building outlook are, in summary: 
In NSW: real building work grew by 7% over the past year. This lift in activity was supported by reducing what was a sizeable pipeline of work outstanding. Near-term, the value of activity is vulnerable to a pull-back from current elevated levels, which are around 20% above commencements. Beyond that, the outlook is positive, reflecting the sound fundamentals for the state and expansionary state fiscal policy. 
In Victoria: real building work declined by 6% over the past year, partially reversing the upswing of the previous couple of years. An emerging stabilisation in activity is likely in coming quarters, ahead of an improvement, supported by the recent strengthening of commencements and approvals, and underpinned by positive fundamentals. 
In Qld: real building work rebounded over the past year, up 12%, following the softer tone evident since 2011 which was associated with the winding down of the mining investment boom. As noted above, commencements bounced back in 2015/16, up on private social infrastructure and public works. The modest lift in the work pipeline will be supportive of activity near-term. Further out, key will be whether some sizeable tourism projects receive the go ahead in response to rising demand, including from international visitors. 
In WA: real building work trended lower over the past year, down 7%, extending the downturn which emerged from the start of 2012 associated with the turning of the mining investment cycle. Conditions are likely to remain subdued as the state continues to feel the impacts from the mining investment downturn, notwithstanding stronger commencements in the June quarter, centred on retail.
<a href="/images/2016/10/31/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-31%20at%202.10.27%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/31/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-31%20at%202.10.27%20PM.png" alt="">
 
In South Australia: building work weakened over the past two years, including a 9% fall in the year to June 2016, as work on the Royal Adelaide Hospital was progressively completed. Conditions are set to turnaround in coming quarters, led by the public sector, with work progressing on the $0.23bn University of South Australia’s Health Innovation centre and the $0.2bn Adelaide University Medical and Nursing school. 
In Tasmania: building work has begun to recover, led by the public sector. This follows four years of subdued conditions which emerged after the impacts of the Federal government’s fiscal stimulus package of 2009/10. The value of building work for the 2015/16 financial year as a whole was 14% above the level of the year prior. There is further upside, supported by the now relatively sizeable work pipeline, which stands at $0.68bn currently, up from around $0.25bn a year earlier. The $0.7bn Royal Hobart hospital redevelopment is the largest project under construction and work on this has a good deal to run. 
Andrew Hanlan is senior economist for Westpac and can be contacted <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://au.linkedin.com/pub/andrew-hanlan/3/222/430" target="_blank">here</a>. 
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
 
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</body></html>

jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Private building activity weakened over first half of 2016: Westpac's Andrew Hanlan

<html><body>
Capital city transaction levels have continued to trend lower according to CoreLogic's latest Economic and Housing update.
According to CoreLogic the slide began after 2013 from a peak of around 35,000 sales and continues downward.
<a href="/images/2016/08/17/400_logic.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/08/17/400_logic.jpg" alt="">
</body></html>

Dwelling Market

Editor's Picks

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News

Dwelling Market

Editor's Picks

Receive the latest news stories to your inbox

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News