<p>Mark and Roy Makari are expanding their presence in Sydney’s South West with a second major proposal for Leppington, this time envisioning a 900-dwelling mixed-use development just 850 metres from their previously lodged tower trio on Fifth Avenue.</p>

<p>The latest application seeks approval for a multi-building project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/230-rickard-road-leppington-nsw-2179">230 Rickard Road, Leppington</a>. The proposal seeks to establish a new focal point for the precinct through a high-density, transit-oriented development supported by diverse land uses.</p>

<p>According to the Scoping Report prepared for the Department of Planning, the scheme includes around 900 apartments across multiple towers, including 135 dwellings designated for affordable housing. A mix of market and subsidised apartments will be supported by ground-level activation through retail and office space, a childcare centre, and a hotel, forming a comprehensive urban precinct.</p>

<p><img alt="Mixed Use Development 230 Rickard Rd Leppington" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="34797362-f3dc-4d84-8235-2657fc5f3bde" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Plan.png?VersionId=Uzckrz9tUpDQl5lX1_WMhjnv16bsr8wG" /></p>

<p>The Design Report by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/studiosc-0">Studio SC</a> notes that the project “intends to deliver a high-quality, high-density built form that supports the vision for the Leppington Town Centre, integrating mixed-use outcomes and public domain upgrades.” The development is expected to be delivered in stages, although a precise timeline is yet to be confirmed.</p>

<p>The project will be assessed through a future State Significant Development Application, with the Scoping Report indicating the team will seek design excellence via a competitive process or through an expert design review panel. Early massing diagrams suggest a series of mid- to high-rise buildings framing a central landscaped spine, with emphasis on pedestrian permeability and public space.</p>

<p>The planning documentation flags a strong sustainability agenda, stating that the development will “respond to the urban heat island effect, incorporate water sensitive urban design, and prioritise active transport”.</p>

<p><img alt="Mixed Use Development 230 Rickard Rd Leppington" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="369d7b54-1279-4cde-88ec-dcb215594414" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Podium_1.png?VersionId=QArL7B2kkLt63vl5xvL0FNV_ardAlez4" /></p>

<p>The proposal follows in the footsteps of the Makaris’ nearby Fifth Avenue site, where they’ve submitted plans for three towers comprising nearly 500 apartments, with 10 per cent dedicated to affordable housing. That project features commercial podiums, a childcare centre, and a new public park that would occupy more than a third of the site.</p>

<p>Both developments are situated within walking distance of Leppington Train Station and fall under strategic precinct plans promoting higher density housing. The town centre is undergoing substantial transformation, driven by state government planning reforms aimed at fast-tracking housing delivery.</p>

<p>Together, the two projects represent a combined ambition of nearly 1,400 new homes across just under two kilometres of central Leppington.</p>


Staff Writer

First look: 900-home mixed-use precinct planned for Leppington

<p>Leading Australian integrated property development group, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/aqualand-australia">Aqualand</a>, has released the signature penthouses crowning its landmark AURA by Aqualand precinct at 168 Walker Street in North Sydney, unveiling Il Magnate and La Divina as the largest and most luxurious penthouses in the suburb.</p>

<p>With prices anticipated to commence from $15 million, and each accompanied by a new Porsche Carrera 911 valued at over $500K, the residences mark the culmination of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/aura-by-aqualand-north-sydney-168-walker-street-north-sydney-nsw-2060">AURA by Aqualand</a>’s decade-long journey and the beginning of its final sales chapter.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
Their release follows more than $850 million in record-breaking residential sales and the building’s completion and occupation.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=30959 project_image_fid=358868]</p>

<p>The Richards Stanisich-designed 284 sqm Il Magnate and 224 sqm La Divina penthouses, collectively known as The Icons of AURA, are conceived as grand luxury homes rather than apartments, with expansive proportions, elevated materiality and curated identities that reflect their status as one-off residences.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Il Magnate features a grande master suite, complete with substantial walk-in dressing area and ensuite, three other bedrooms, second ensuite and another bathroom, powder room, open plan kitchen, scullery, substantial dining area and generous living room divided by a feature fireplace, and a multifunction wintergarden, which is ideal for a study and adjoining office breakout space. &nbsp;</p>

<p>Meanwhile, the La Divina residence offers the same amenities, sans the powder room, on a slightly smaller alternate floor plan configuration.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=30959 project_image_fid=358863]</p>

<p>Each occupies half of AURA by Aqualand’s topmost 28th level, comes with four secure car spaces and pairs sweeping Sydney Harbour panoramas with large-scale living spaces, refined detailing and a level of craftsmanship and amenity rarely offered in the North Shore market.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Penthouse residents will also receive Etymon’s ‘Black Key’ private concierge and lifestyle management service, an invitation only offering providing the ultimate in bespoke personalisation, including a range of everyday discrete services, from dinner party management, grocery deliveries, pet feeding or plants watered, dinners, snacks and coffee deliveries, event ticket sourcing, right up to organising travel visas and international airfares. Rarely seen in Australian properties, the service provides residents the benefits of living in a world-class luxury hotel-style home, akin to The Ritz, or the Waldorf Astoria.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=30959 project_image_fid=358862]</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/richards-stanisich">Richards Stanisich</a>’s Director, Kirsten Stanisich, said the studio set out to craft residences that feel profoundly considered, contemporary and deeply connected to their setting.</p>

<p>“From the outset, we approached these penthouses with the sensibility of a grand Parisian residence - generous in scale, elegant in proportion and designed to feel more like a handcrafted home than an apartment," Stanisich said.</p>

<p>“Their elevated position and sweeping harbour outlook informed every decision, creating a rare connection between urban sophistication and natural calm. We shaped each space with expressive materiality, sculptural forms and bespoke detailing that invite touch and interaction.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“The result is a pair of residences defined by volume, light and an inherent softness - refined, flexible and deeply personal. These penthouses are unlike anything else in North Sydney, offering a sanctuary of true luxury framed by some of the city’s most remarkable views.”</p>

<p>For Aqualand’s Head of Sales &amp; Marketing, Alex Adams, the collaboration with Porsche underscores the shared ethos behind the residences.</p>

<p>“Aqualand’s collaboration with Porsche underpins both brand’s sharing an obsession with craftsmanship, design excellence, and enduring value," Adams said.</p>

<p>“Our penthouses are created for those who appreciate the finer details and expect the extraordinary at every touchpoint. Including a Porsche simply extends that experience beyond the residence - it’s a continuation of the lifestyle our buyers already live.”&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=30959 project_image_fid=292862]</p>

<p>Aqualand’s Managing Director, Jin Lin, said the penthouses represent both the pinnacle of AURA by Aqualand and an important design benchmark for the company’s future pipeline.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“These stunning penthouses reflect the purest expression of Aqualand’s design ambition," Lin said.</p>

<p>“The unparalleled design intent makes them not only the glistening crown of AURA by Aqualand, but the crown of North Sydney itself. They’re essentially a thank you gift to a burgeoning community that deserves this level of quality and architectural consideration.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“We’re leveraging the unrivalled standard set here as the foundation for what comes next, including our upcoming Anderson Street, Chatswood; 15 Blue Street, North Sydney and Central Barangaroo projects. Purchasers of these penthouses will essentially be living inside the blueprint of Aqualand’s future.</p>

<p>“These landmark residences demonstrate how far North Sydney has evolved and the strength of demand for highly curated, bespoke luxury homes. They’re more than penthouses, they’re legacy residences.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“With AURA by Aqualand now a thriving new precinct with residents well and truly settled, and our in-house world-class lifestyle amenity activated, Il Magnate and La Divina represent a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to secure an extraordinary piece of North Sydney’s future.”</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=30959]</p>


Joel Robinson

Aqualand launches North Sydney penthouses with free Porsche Carrera 911

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/bokarina-qld-4575">Bokarina</a> Beach has quietly evolved into one of the Sunshine Coast’s most complete coastal lifestyle precincts, defined not just by proximity to the ocean, but by how residential living, local retail and everyday amenity are stitched together.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Gardner Vaughan Group’s <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bask-bokarina-38-bokarina-boulevard-bokarina-qld-4575">Bask Bokarina</a> now represents the final residential chapter in that transformation.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=141609 project_image_fid=333360]</p>

<p>Over recent years, the Bokarina Beach precinct has taken shape as a walkable, community-oriented neighbourhood, anchored by beachfront access, Lake Kawana to the west, and a growing mix of cafés, specialty retail and public open space.&nbsp;</p>

<p>With Zinc Bokarina already delivered next door by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gardner-vaughan-group">Gardner Vaughan Group</a> (GVG), Bask is the last opportunity to buy a brand new apartment within the precinct, effectively rounding out a fully formed coastal village.</p>

<p>GVG has positioned Bask to strengthen that lifestyle framework. Nine ground-floor retail spaces are planned beneath the residences, extending Bokarina Boulevard’s existing activity and reinforcing the area’s everyday convenience, from casual dining and coffee to local services, within a short walk of the beach.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=141609 project_image_fid=333359]</p>

<p>The residential component comprises 135 apartments across two buildings, Mydas and Caretta, with a clear shift toward larger three- and four-bedroom layouts and penthouses. That mix reflects a maturing buyer profile in Bokarina, where demand is increasingly led by owner-occupiers and active downsizers seeking space, permanence, and connection to place rather than short-term coastal accommodation.</p>

<p>Design and amenity have followed the same logic. Residents will have access to a heated plunge pool, gym, private dining room with a full kitchen, landscaped communal gardens with barbecues and a firepit, and a shared herb and vegetable garden, facilities intended to support daily use rather than resort-style turnover. Pet-friendly features, including a dog wash bay, acknowledge both buyer expectations and the area’s dog-friendly beach, located around 250 metres from the site.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=141609 project_image_fid=333366]</p>

<p>“Bokarina has become one of the Sunshine Coast’s most desirable beachside communities, and Bask represents the very last chance to buy new in this location,” GVG Director Sam Gardner said.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“Our focus has been to create spacious, functional apartments that meet the needs of locals who want to downsize without compromise, as well as those seeking a full-time coastal retreat.”</p>

<p>Positioned between the Pacific Ocean and Lake Kawana, Bask apartments have been oriented to capture outlooks toward the water or the Glass House Mountains, reinforcing the project’s connection to its natural surroundings. With parks, beachfront paths, hospitals, retail and public transport already in place, Bask arrives at a point where the broader precinct is no longer emerging, but established.</p>

<p>Construction is expected to complete in Q3 this year, with apartments ready to move into this Spring.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=141609]</p>


Bask to complete Bokarina’s Sunshine Coast lifestyle precinct as final apartments are released

<p>Property development giant <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/avid-property-group">AVID Property Group</a> is approaching completion, and sell-out, of its Surry Hills apartment development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-rathbone-23-47-flinders-street-surry-hills-nsw-2010">The Rathbone</a>.</p>

<p>The Flinders St project has sold well over half of its 32 apartments, which will sit above two retail spaces.</p>

<p>Now hitting the market are the final 14 one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments, which start from $1.15 million. AVID is targeting a mid-2026 completion.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=5947 project_image_fid=51208]</p>

<p>AVID General Manager New South Wales Danny Boubli said as more apartments are introduced to increase housing options in inner-city areas, homebuyers are searching for a &nbsp;sense of belonging in addition to location, convenience and value.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“There are very few opportunities for new developments in Surry Hills, and since acquiring the site, we’ve even seen one early purchaser merge two apartments plans together, reflecting the demand for a spacious, premium offering in a prime location,” Boubli said.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“Demand has been strong since we launched to market – we don’t see these final apartments staying on the market for long.”&nbsp;</p>

<p>Architectural firm Studio SC has designed the building which pays homage to the former 1900s Rathbone Terraces that once sat on the 990 sqm island site.</p>

<p>Boubil said the team has made every effort to create "truly liveable apartments", through&nbsp;functional floor plans, security, storage, and the inclusion of quality fittings.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=5947 project_image_fid=51207]</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>Sustainable design has also been implemented throughout the development, with natural light flooding each apartment, ventilation throughout, extensive landscaping and where possible, materials with a high level of recycled content and low volatile organic compound paints have been used. &nbsp;</p>

<p>Apartments range in size from 57 sqm for the one-bedrooms to the large-scale 165 sqm three-beds which are priced at $2,575,000.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=5947]</p>


AVID launches final apartments at The Rathbone, Surry Hills

<p>A wave of investment, renewal and precinct growth continues to shape the northern edge of Macquarie Park, where daily life is supported by a rare combination of university activity, corporate employment, major retail, and expansive green corridors. It’s this convergence of amenity and connectivity underpins the setting for <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a>’s <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/la-vera-94-talavera-road-macquarie-park-nsw-2113">La Vera</a>, which has now topped out and is tracking toward completion in mid-2026.</p>

<p>Within this pocket of the precinct, residents move easily between the area’s key anchors. Macquarie Centre, home to more than 360 retailers, fresh food offerings, dining and entertainment, sits at the heart of local convenience and functions as a major transport interchange. The Metro, T1 rail line and extensive bus network place much of Sydney within quick reach, while surrounding arterial links support direct access to neighbouring districts.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=5829]</p>

<p>Green space remains a defining feature of the immediate environment. Lane Cove National Park stretches along the northern boundary of the precinct, offering bushland trails, cycling routes and quiet riverfront pockets. Shrimptons Creek and the campus grounds of Macquarie University extend these recreational networks, softening the urban setting and creating a daily connection to nature that informs the project’s architectural response.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">Cox Architecture</a> have shaped La Vera around these contrasts. The building’s northern elevation adopts an organic, curvilinear form that mirrors the natural topography of the national park. Three sculpted forms soften the tower’s profile and encourage a stronger transition between indoor living areas, balconies and the broader landscape.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=223737]</p>

<p>Cox Director Felipe Miranda says the building’s outlook played a central role in the design process.</p>

<p>“The vision for the project was to conceive a building that adopted an organic and curvilinear form to the northern portion that faces the Lane Cove National Park… The residents that reside in the northern portion of the building benefit by having beautifully crafted curved balconies that speak to the natural context and heighten the relationship of their internal living spaces to the external balconies,” Felipe Miranda of Cox Architecture said.</p>

<p>Toward the city-facing side, the design shifts to a more urban expression. A gridded facade and extensive glazing capture CBD views, creating a dual strategy that blends ecological outlooks with metropolitan orientation.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=5827]</p>

<p>La Vera delivers 169 residences across one- to four-bedroom layouts, reflecting the needs of young families, downsizers, first-home buyers and investors seeking long-term certainty within a high-amenity location. From the project, residents can walk to Macquarie University, Macquarie Hospital and nearby corporate offices, reach national park trails within minutes, and enjoy retail and dining without relying on a car.</p>

<p>The project is delivered by Urban Property Group, a 4.5-star iCIRT-rated developer-builder with more than three decades of experience. The company has become a leader in adopting 10-Year Latent Defects Insurance (LDI), first introduced on its Parq Bexley development and now embedded into its pipeline.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=223727]</p>

<p>La Vera is the first development in Macquarie Park approved to offer this 10-year LDI policy, adding another layer of protection for purchasers and reinforcing the transparency of the construction process.</p>

<p>Urban Property Group CEO Patrick Elias says this assurance has become increasingly important for buyers navigating the off-the-plan market.</p>

<p>“Consumers are a lot more weary and a lot more concerned in buying off the plan than they ever have been… Having LDI is a tool to portray the confidence that we have in our product, and a confidence we want buyers to share,” Urban Property Group CEO Patrick Elias said.</p>

<p>Urban Property Group's in-house construction team is forecasting a mid-2026 completion, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/home789">HOME789</a> appointed as the project marketer.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134951]</p>


La Vera delivers a nature-connected address within Macquarie Park’s core

Dwelling Construction

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<div>One of the most notable aspects of this building approvals boom has been that it has been focussed on the building of high density housing to an unprecedented extent.</div>
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<div>If you want capital growth from property then I suggest that you should be wary of high rise stock since proportionately far too much of it is has been approved.</div>
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<div>Approvals in most instances do now seem to be pulling back, but the approvals pipeline has seen 4+ storey dwellings pushed through this cycle to date in unprecedented volumes.</div>
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<div>In August the number of approvals pulled back in Victoria from 1,766 to as the new <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2015/09/building-approvals-boom-passes-peak" target="_blank">levy</a> takes effect, but the 12mMA trendline tells its own story...</div>
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<div><span>In Queensland the number of 4+ storey dwelling approvals at 895 in August was well below the extraordinarily high volumes approved in 7 of the preceding 9 months, and the trendline peak now seems to be in...</span></div>
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<div><span>Being home to the largest capital city, New South Wales has typically approved the greatest number of high rise apartments, although here too approvals fell from an elevated 3,431 to 1,887 in August...</span></div>
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<div>Overall it seems that the great flood of approvals of high rise apartments is now easing as developers take note of the looming oversupply.</div>
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<div>The problem with the highest density tower blocks for investors is simply that there is no inherent scarcity value. </div>
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<div>Pass.</div>
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<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

The high rise apartment glut: Pete Wargent

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<p><span>The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released building approvals data for July 2015 earlier this week. According to the data there were 19,298 dwelling approvals over the month which represents an increase of 4.2% over the month and a year-on-year rise of 13.4%. Monthly dwelling approvals reached a record high of 20,260 approvals in March 2015 and the July 2015 result represents the fifth largest monthly number of dwelling approvals on record.</span></p>
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<p>Over the month there were more unit approvals than house approvals. In fact it was only the seventh time on record that there were more units approved over the month than houses, five of which have happened in 2015. Although unit approvals outnumbered house approvals over the month it is important to note that they tend to be much more volatile than house approvals and are ultimately less likely to be built than houses (approximately 85% of all unit approvals proceed through to a completion historically). Although this is the case, particularly for larger unit development, the economic benefit is extended over a longer period because they take much longer to complete.</p>
<p>In July 2015 there were 9,479 houses and 9,819 unit approvals over the month. House approvals fell by -2.6% in July and were -2.1% lower year-on-year.  Meanwhile, unit approvals increased by 11.7% in July (following a fall of -13.3% in June) and were 33.8% higher year-on-year.  On an annual basis there has been a record high 224,121 approvals to July 2015. To put the recent ramp-up in approvals into perspective, three years ago there were just 148,449 approvals over the year.</p>
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<p><span>As the number of approvals has increased, the greatest rise has occurred across the multi-unit segment. Over the past 12 months a record high 48.3% of all approvals were for units. If you look just at the capital city markets 55.7% of all dwelling approvals were for units.  </span></p>
<p><span>The rise in unit approvals is reflective of changing lifestyle patterns with more and more people preferring to live closer to the city centre and along transport spines where most of these units are located. It also shows that developers are enjoying a level of confidence by seeking approvals for a record high number of units.  </span></p>
<p><span>Another factor contributing to the rise in higher density dwelling approvals is changes in town planning policies where governments are aiming to maximise existing transport infrastructure by allowing higher densities along existing and planned transport corridors and mixed use precincts.</span></p>
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<p>If we look at the types of units that are being approved it is interesting to note the sharp rise in high-rise approvals, that is units in a block of four or more storeys.  Over the past 12 months, a record high 63.4% of all unit approvals were within high-rise projects while a record low 26.2% of approvals were terrace and townhouses and a record low 4.9% of approvals were for units in a one or two storey block. Again, these figures just go to show the heightened level of developer confidence particularly when you consider the relative level of risk associated with high rise development.</p>
<p>The number of dwelling approvals remains high albeit it is slightly lower than recent record highs. Strength in the approvals figures are becoming increasingly reliant on the multi-unit sector which tend to be much more volatile than house approvals. With many banks, credit unions and building societies tightening their lending criteria it will be interesting to see over the coming months if this flows into approvals and causes developer confidence to wane.</p>
<p>No matter what happens with approvals over the coming months and years there is a strong pipeline of new construction, much of which is high-rise and will extend out over a number of years.  Furthermore, with population growth slowing we should see a better relationship between housing supply and housing demand.  This is already being seen by the fact that capital city rental rates are increasing at an historic low rate currently.</p>
<p><em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/cameron-kusher/" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
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Rise in unit approvals drives rebound: Cameron Kusher

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<div>Total construction work done declined by a further 1.9 percent in the June 2016 quarter to $47.8 billion, to be 7.9 percent lower over the year. </div>
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<div>The result was driven by another 5.1 percent decline in engineering construction in the quarter - largely mining related - to leave this component down by 24.9 percent year-on-year.</div>
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<div>The building boom, on the other hand, continues apace. </div>
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<div>Although there has been a solid increase in alterations and additions (major renovations) lately, record building activity through this cycle has been overwhelmingly been driven by "other residential" building, specifically units, apartments, and townhouses.  </div>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Mining cliff now 4 years old</span></strong></div>
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<div>Next month it will be fully four years since the so-termed "mining cliff" began. </div>
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<div>Interestingly engineering construction work done increased in the June 2016 quarter in Queensland, where most of the retracement has already taken place, while activity has actually trended up strongly in New South Wales and Victoria over the past year. </div>
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<div>I've long been warning that Western Australia would have to take its medicine sooner or later, and the reality check kicked in this quarter, with engineering construction crashing down to be some 48 per cent lower than one year ago. </div>
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<div>These figures confirm what has no doubt been obvious on the ground for some time - that the local economy is doing it tough as it passes through this painful slowdown period.</div>
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<div>Engineering construction work done has also fallen substantially in the Northern Territory over the last six quarters, including by a further 28 per cent over the past year, with only the massive Ichthys LNG project is holding this result aloft.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator">The good news is that the decline in engineering construction is now thought to be around 80 percent complete, meaning that sooner or later this will stop being such a drag on the economy. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">In fact, in New South Wales, Victoria, and now Queensland, it already has. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Record building boom continues</span></strong></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">The building boom and its associated multiplier effect has largely benefited the largest capital cities.</div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/08/25/A4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/08/25/A4.jpg" alt=""></p>
<div>New house building, while still increasing steadily in Victoria, Queensland, and South Australia, appears to have peaked for this cycle nationally.</div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/08/25/A5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/08/25/A5.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>On the other hand the value of construction work done on attached dwellings was still tracking at record levels in the June quarter. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/08/25/A6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/08/25/A6.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong><br><br>Residential building activity was still running at full pelt through the second quarter of the year, pushing up building costs in cities such as Sydney.<br><br>The Housing Industry Association (HIA) announced today that it believes that new home building will now decline for the next three years, with annual commencements falling from a peak of over 232,500 dwellings to 166,500 in 2018/19, with some downside risks to the forecast.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The good news is that engineering construction will have already stopped falling significantly over the next 18 months.<br><br>Ichthys aside, most of the project-driven declines have now washed through the figures outside Western Australia.<br><br>Analysts expect to see moderate GDP growth in the second quarter of calendar year 2016 with net exports not making much of a contribution this time around.<br><br>On balance, though, the planned hand-off has been pulled off very well, with Australia now getting close to the bottom of its mining cliff.<br><br>Although resources regions have felt the pain, the largest capital cities have by and large pulled through relatively unscathed. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Record building boom continues: Pete Wargent

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<h3 class="post-title entry-title"> </h3>
<div id="post-body-2781265956150443664" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>Australia's GDP increased to $1.67 trillion in financial year 2016, measured in seasonally adjusted Chain Volume Measures terms, now tracking at just above $420 billion per quarter.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Following on from yesterday's post, a quick look here at industry gross value added (GVA).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Having accounted for just over 5 per cent of industry GVA three decades ago, mining's share has swelled to 8.9 percent as export volumes begin to ramp up.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Finance and insurance also now accounts for 8.9 per cent of industry GVA, up from just 4.9 per cent in 1986.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>You can click on the chart to expand it (or use the touch screen, if you have one of those, of course).</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/09/28/GVA.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/09/28/GVA.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div class="separator"> </div>
<div>On the other hand, manufacturing is shrinking as a share of the pie, declining from a share of 11.1 percent at the beginning of this chart to just 5.8 percent in 2016.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Construction wind-down</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The latest figures show that the contribution of construction to GDP has remained solid at 7.6 per cent, tracking at around $32 billion per quarter.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>A decade ago construction was contributing only $13 to $14 billion per quarter. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This suggests that the planned 'hand-off' from resources to residential construction was generally a success between 2012 and 2016. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, this does also mean that as residential construction eventually winds down there will be quite a hole in domestic demand to be plugged by something other than rising mining export volumes.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Given the respective skill-sets of all those construction workers, tradies, and project managers, the answer should be: infrastructure and non-residential construction, as I looked at in a bit more detail here. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Indeed, the unprecedented stamp duty windfall from Sydney's property boom is already funding a range of infrastructure projects in Sydney and New South Wales. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>But what about the gaping gulf left behind in the resources regions? </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Troubling, and this may be leading to an exodus of regional workers. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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When construction winds down: Pete Wargent

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<div>EXPERT OBSERVER</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Less than a month ago, one report suggested Australia might have the 'world's worst management' of the virus, and yet now it has transpired that our results are among the very best in the world, alongside New Zealand. </div>
<div>
<br>Whether that's by luck or by judgement - or most likely a bit of both - may only be known in the fullness of time.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>As to how this is impacting real estate searches, there are three main factors to bear in mind.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Firstly, there are now record low mortgage rates for new borrowers, from just over 2 per cent, and these look set to persist for<em> at least </em>three years. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Secondly, there's now some potential return for a return of the cobweb effect we saw before the election last year, which may kill new supply, at least in tightly held or blue chip areas. </div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-muLpbzV0YMk/XqeSHzYsCkI/AAAAAAAA1bQ/UiIENyW0HFITZfYPgrsz7LRQGKmXAASWgCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/COBWEB.jpg" width="640" height="402" data-original-height="676" data-original-width="1073"></div>
<br>Dwelling starts look set to slump to around a 70-year low, and while plenty of aged listings remain on the market, quality new listings are now rather thin.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>For example, Real Estate reported that there was just one new apartment listing in Coogee over the course of a week, which is exasperating for anyone wanting for take advantage of the slowdown.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And thirdly - a point I've alluded to previously - while Canada, the US, and many developed European and Asian countries have grappled with the spread of the virus, the two countries which are emerging with enhanced reputations as the most desirable to live appear to be New Zealand and Australia. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-FCrTsrhS1A8/XqeB4-FGTkI/AAAAAAAA1a0/FNk2h5mGer4YoMzTOD_POJsFl6E9LiKcgCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/BB.jpg" width="640" height="448" data-original-height="517" data-original-width="738"></div>
<p><br><span>A 'Lucky Country' indeed.</span></p>
<p><span><strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em> is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em></span></p>
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Dwelling starts look set to slump to new low: Pete Wargent

Significant slowdown in dwelling commencements this quarter: Cameron Kusher

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<div>After years of under-building from about 2005 forth in Sydney, between July 2012 and April 2016 a vastly improved 163,500 dwelling approvals have been recorded for the Greater Sydney region (inclusive of the Central Coast and the Blue Mountains) and the Illawarra.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>As Australia's densest capital city, Sydney approvals today are mostly of the attached or dwelling multi-unit type. </div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/08/16/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/08/16/A1.jpg" alt=""> </p>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>There has been report after report concerned with the record number of units and apartments under construction.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Yet to date vacancy rates have barely budged at the city level, and apartment rents have kept rising.<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Bottleneck</span></strong>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The reason for this - and indeed the reason that so many dwellings are under construction - as I've looked at previously <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2016/07/making-sense-of-australias-super-duper" target="_blank">here</a>, is that multi-unit dwellings generally take considerably longer to proceed from approval, to commencement, and then to completion (perhaps up to several years from start to finish) than detached houses on greenfield sites, at typically just a matter of months. </div>
<div>As a result, over the year to April 2016, after accounting for demolitions there were just 11,937 net detached dwelling completions, and 18,370 multi-unit dwellings. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Not only has this rate of net completions after accounting for demolitions not been making up for the years of under-building, it has barely even been keeping pace with <em><strong>current</strong></em> annual Greater Sydney population growth of an estimated 83,500 per annum.<br><br>This is particularly so given that so many small apartments are being built, typically housing only two persons (not to mention those apartments left vacant by offshore investors), contributing to a mismatch of supply increasingly characterised by a surfeit of high rise apartment stock.<br><br>It's worth noting that this completions data doesn't easily capture the addition of granny flats, but the point still stands - completions in Sydney just haven't been that high...to date.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/08/16/A3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/08/16/A3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<p> </p>
<div>From July 2012 to April 2016, after accounting for demolitions, there were net dwelling completions of only 101,300, just 62 percent of the number of dwelling approvals over the same time period. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The population of Greater Sydney increased by somewhere in the region of 307,000 heads over that time, so it's a little wonder that population growth has been absorbing new supply.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This dynamic is finally about to change, though, as the record pipeline of new apartments under construction begins to come online, although the industry being stretched to full capacity will inevitably see construction costs rising henceforth. </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Local Government Authorities (LGAs)</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>At the LGA level we can see that up to April 2016 there have been few regions that have really been hammering out unduly high net dwelling completions. </div>
<div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/08/16/A1-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/08/16/A1-1.jpg" alt=""></div>
</div>
<div>However, looking at the LGA dwelling approvals figures split out by financial year helps to identify the areas at risk of emerging oversupply (as well as certain upmarket localities such as Manly, Mosman, and Woollahra, where the total stock of dwellings has remained all but fixed).<br><br>
</div>
<div>The City of Sydney LGA covers a large central area of 25 square kilometres and comprises a great many hugely popular suburbs, and in that context its 13,700 approvals from July 2012 represent relatively slim pickings. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, the volume of dwelling approvals - especially for apartments - in certain other areas is abnormally high in historical terms, in turn suggesting an elevated level of risk: Blacktown, Parramatta, the Hills District, Liverpool, and to some extent Camden and Ryde.<br><br>The Canada Bay approvals figures don't really capture the volume of building that has already taken place at Wentworth Point and some surrounding suburbs.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/08/16/A3-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/08/16/A3-1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<p><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Case study: Parra</span></strong></p>
<div class="separator">I don't quite have the space here (read: can't be bothered) to discuss apartment supply in detail across every Sydney LGA, but a quick look at the Parramatta data is instructive. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Parramatta has seen several years of abnormally high apartment approvals figures, yet until relatively recently net dwelling completions had not lifted too dramatically.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">This rapidly changed in September 2015 as a slew of new projects began to come onstream, and there is plenty more to come in the pipeline, with yet another 3,339 multi-unit dwellings approved over the 12 months to April 2016. Wow-wee!</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/08/16/A2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/08/16/A2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>I took a drive around Parramatta a fortnight or so ago, and the amount of building still underway is really quite eye-popping. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This may result in valuation challenges at settlement for off-the-plan apartment purchases, rising vacancy rates, declining rents, and widespread instances of weak capital growth over the coming years (by which, of course, I mean negative).</div>
<div>
<br><em>Caveat emptor!</em><br><br>Regular readers may recall I spent a joy-filled afternoon driving around looking at a number of apartment construction hotspots recently, and I wrote a bit about it.<br><br>
</div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Sydney's construction pipeline: Pete Wargent

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<div id="post-body-3241568079110976919" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>Australia's construction boom hit "peak apartments" in the March 2016 quarter the latest Building Activity data from the ABS showed, with developers now beginning to crunch their way through the record number of dwellings approved but not yet commenced. </div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/07/18/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/07/18/A1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Total quarterly commencements accordingly rose to a record high of 59,684.<br><br>Attached dwelling commencements - townhouses, units, and apartments - were up by 21 per cent from the first quarter of calendar year 2015, leading to just shy of 230,000 dwellings commenced in the year to March 2016, also a record.<br><br><div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/07/18/A1-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/07/18/A1-1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br>As you can see in the chart above, annual house commencements have already passed their peak for this cycle, with Sydney in particular constructing fewer detached dwellings through the cycle as the harbour city becomes more dense - building up, not out - while on the other hand Melbourne continues its heroic sprawl.  </div>
<div> </div>
<a href="/images/2016/07/18/A6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
</div>
<div class="post-body entry-content">
<img src="/images/2016/07/18/A6.jpg" alt=""><br><br><div>Annual attached dwelling commencements are now at their highest ever level.</div>
<br><a href="/images/2016/07/18/A5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
</div>
<div class="post-body entry-content">
<img src="/images/2016/07/18/A5.jpg" alt=""><br><br><div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Completions slower to come online</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The curious aspect of this cycle is that with so many of the commencements being multi-unit developments, the supply has been considerably slower to come online.<br><br>Why? Because on average it's much faster to build a house on a shovel-ready block of greenfield land (perhaps only a few months) than it is to deliver a block of apartments on a brownfield site, which could chew up a period of several years from approval to completion. <br><br>The outcome of this is an epic supply bottleneck.<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Bottleneck!</span></strong><br><br>There are now more dwellings stuck in the "under construction" phase than we have ever witnessed before: a thunderous total of 218,262 dwellings, more than 150,000 of which are attached dwellings.<br><br>If you can see a lot of cranes on the city horizon, this is why!<br><br>
</div>
<div>A record 74,530 of the dwelling units under construction are located in New South Wales (including more than 56,000 attached dwellings), 67,748 are in Victoria (nearly 48,000 of which are attached dwellings), and 39,816 are in Queensland (more than 31,000 of which are attached dwellings, an eye-popping ratio).<br><br>In other words, lots and lots of apartment projects are underway but not yet finished.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Indeed, completions have been so slow to come online that actual dwelling completions have declined for the past four quarters on the bounce, from 49,733 in the first quarter of last calendar year to just 45,619 in the first quarter of this year.</div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/07/18/A2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/07/18/A2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div>This huge lag between record approvals and completion helps to explain why super-strong population growth in the two most populous capital cities has to date continued to outpace and absorb dwelling supply. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Annual attached dwelling completions in NSW (22,400) and VIC (23,000) not only remain below previous peaks, but are also tracking way behind the romping pace of state population growth of 106,000 and 109,000 per annum respectively.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/07/18/A3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/07/18/A3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div>
<em>The Australian</em> recently reported an estimated year's oversupply of dwelling based upon an assumption of 47,000 net additions to the dwelling stock per quarter. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Yet reported vacancy rates in Sydney and Melbourne - even if the figures are arguably incomplete - have actually declined, the slowdown in rental price growth as much reflective of the number of <em>investors</em> in the market through this cycle as the number of physical dwellings.<br><br>Because the record high volume of units and apartments under construction are slower to come online than houses, the assumptions reported by <em>The Australian</em> have been over-egged when compared to the number of actual completions by some 85,000 dwellings. </div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/07/18/A4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/07/18/A4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Moreover these assumptions overlook that up to 25,000 commencements per annum simply replace existing stock, as pointed out by the good Prof. Philips of the ANU.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/07/18/PHILLIPS.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/07/18/PHILLIPS.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">The picture is complicated somewhat further by the addition of granny flats which are not well captured by the data, but after accounting for demolitions the new supply has so far had a relatively muted impact in Sydney and Melbourne.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>What has transpired to date is localised bursts of oversupply, not nothing too dramatic at the macro level.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">There are more than 150,000 units, townhouses, and apartments now under construction in Australia, easily the highest figure on record, so construction activity will remain at or close to full capacity for some time yet. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Attached dwellings can take a long period of time to complete, so to date at least the impact of new supply hasn't been all that great. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">But what is Australia going to do with all these new high-rise dwellings during a period when its post mining-boom economy isn't supporting such high levels of immigration? </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Mr. Turnbull does have a plan. And like most of Australia's cunning plans these days, it involves tapping demand from China. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">It's only been a fortnight since the new "streamlined" student visa rules kicked in, but early anecdotal indications suggest that the plan might just be working. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/07/18/VISAS.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/07/18/VISAS.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Making sense of Australia's super-duper construction boom: Pete Wargent

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>An extraordinary amount of construction work has occurred in Australia over the past five years. In fact work done in both NSW and Victoria soared by over 40 per cent from 2014 to 2019. But now work flows are adjusting to more balanced supply-demand metrics.</p>
<p>Residential work peaked around 18 months ago and is now down 15 per cent from the highs.</p>
<p>Commercial work hit record highs in the September quarter but eased in the December quarter. Still, on the work yet to be done, commercial work will test record highs in the next year while residential work softens – at least for the next six months. Bushfire reconstruction work will slowly pick up over 2020.</p>
<p>Construction-dependent firms won’t be short of work in 2020, but businesses may have to travel a bit further to tap into the opportunities. The good news is that price pressures are well contained. In fact building costs (residential and commercial) are rising at the slowest annual pace in around seven years.</p>
<p>The data hasn’t been updated since mid-January, but the latest reading showed $144 billion of construction work still to be completed. Engineering work totals $74 billion with around $38 billion of residential work and a record $32 billion of commercial work.</p>
<p><strong>What do the figures show?</strong><br><em>Construction work done – December quarter</em></p>
<p>Construction work done fell by 3.0 per cent in the December quarter – the fifth fall in six quarters. The value of construction work done is down by 7.4 per cent on a year ago.</p>
<p>Public sector construction work rose by 0.7 per cent in the quarter after a 3.6 per cent lift in the September quarter.</p>
<p>Private sector activity fell by 4.2 per cent in the December quarter – the fourth successive quarterly fall.</p>
<p>Construction work fell across six states and territories in the December quarter: NSW (down 4.6 per cent); Victoria (down 2.8 per cent); Queensland (down 3.4 per cent); South Australia (down 5.4 per cent); Western Australia (down 2.9 per cent); Tasmania (down 6.6 per cent); Northern Territory (up 0.6 per cent); ACT (up 1.5 per cent).</p>
<p>Engineering work fell by 1.5 per cent in the December quarter – the sixth straight decline. Work done is down by 8.0 per cent over the year.</p>
<p>Commercial (non-residential) building fell by 3.4 per cent in the December quarter after rising 7.5 per cent in the September quarter. Work done is up 3.3 per cent on the year.</p>
<p>Residential building fell by 4.6 per cent in the December quarter – the sixth straight decline. Work done is down 12.8 per cent over the year – the biggest annual fall in 18 years.</p>
<p>Alterations &amp; additions fell by 1.3 per cent in the quarter to be down by 5.8 per cent over the year. And new residential work fell by 5.1 per cent over the quarter and by 13.7 per cent over the year to December</p>
<p>Construction costs rose by 0.2 per cent in the December quarter, with building costs up 0.1 per cent and engineering costs up by 0.3 per cent.</p>
<p>Over the year, construction costs rose by 1.2 per cent (slowest pace in three years) with building costs up 0.7 per cent (slowest pace in seven years) and engineering costs up by 1.9 per cent (slowest in 2½ years).</p>
<p><strong>Bushfires</strong></p>
<p>The ABS noted: “Bushfires resulted in minor disruption to data collection activities during the December 2019 quarter in New South Wales, Victoria and the Australian Capital Territory. Quality assurance undertaken by the ABS confirmed that these disruptions did not result in any impacts to Construction activity statistics. Whilst it is expected that bushfire rebuilding and recovery activity will have some impact on future Construction activity estimates this activity is not yet present in the December estimates.”</p>
<p><strong>What are the implications for interest rates and investors?</strong></p>
<p>There is still plenty of construction work to go around. In fact some firms like Monadelphous continue to highlight the difficulty in attracting and retaining good skilled workers for engineering projects.</p>
<p>In terms of the outlook for home building, the Housing Industry Association said “We estimate the industry commenced construction on 174,770 homes in 2019, and we are forecasting for activity to rise only marginally (by 0.6 per cent) in 2020.”</p>
<p>The fall in residential work in the December quarter means that dwelling investment will be drag on economic growth in the December quarter. We will get another piece of the ‘GDP puzzle’ tomorrow with business investment data. The data will likely show an easing of building/construction investment by Aussie businesses.</p>
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