<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/broadbeach-qld-4218">Broadbeach</a> offers plenty of reasons to live vertically, but moving from a substantial family home into an apartment can expose the compromises of high-density living. Privacy, room for guests and usable living space tend to matter more when an apartment is intended as a permanent home rather than an occasional coastal base.

A typical residential floor at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-eveleigh-broadbeach-7-9-surf-parade-broadbeach-qld-4218">The Eveleigh</a>, on Surf Parade,&nbsp;contains just four apartments. The 94-residence development by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/hirsch-faigen">Hirsch &amp; Faigen</a> is predominantly made up of expansive three-bedroom homes, with a limited collection of half-floor penthouses above.

Across the apartment floors, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a> has used the relatively limited number of residences to give each home greater access to natural light and outlook. Living spaces extend towards full-height glazing, while a series of bay windows frame selected views across the Pacific Ocean, city and hinterland rather than treating the building edge as a continuous wall of glass.

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[smartcode_project:default project_id=149670 project_image_fid=360965]

“The apartment floors deliver a collection of homes that embrace controlled outlook via a series of bay windows deliberately framing moments of view,” Rothelowman Director Kim Lowman said.

From outside, those projecting forms contribute to the tower’s faceted profile. Strong horizontal and vertical elements establish its proportions, while the changing position of the sun alters the light, shadow and reflection across the façade throughout the day.

The same attention moves inside the apartments, where the material palette combines warm timber, natural stone, metallic detailing and softer curved forms. Kitchens sit within the main living zone, with stone island benches, integrated joinery and European appliances, before the living areas extend towards the glazing and the outlook.

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[smartcode_project:default project_id=149670 project_image_fid=360981]

Three genuine bedrooms provide room to accommodate family and guests, while two secure car spaces and storage address some of the practical considerations that can become more noticeable when moving from a larger home. Feedback from the display suite has centred on the warmth and restraint of the interiors, with buyers commenting that the residences feel like homes rather than conventional coastal apartments.

A limited collection of half-floor penthouses occupies the upper levels, increasing the scale of the living spaces and adding private balconies and elevated finishes. From this position, the outlook extends between the ocean and hinterland.

Outside the private residences, The Eveleigh separates its shared spaces between the podium and rooftop. The podium is centred on wellness, with subtropical landscaping surrounding a swimming pool and pool terrace, yoga garden, private gymnasium, sauna and hot and cold plunge facilities. Landscaped retreats and pavilions provide additional places to sit away from the main recreation areas.

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[smartcode_project:default project_id=149670 project_image_fid=360966]

Higher in the building, a rooftop pavilion and private dining suite sit alongside resident lounge, barbecue and outdoor dining areas, opening towards panoramic views across the ocean, city and hinterland.

“Buyers are no longer just looking for an apartment, but a lifestyle where they can relax, reset, and enjoy a balanced way of living,” Hirsch &amp; Faigen Director of Sales Matt George said.

Interest to date has come from established owner-occupiers and interstate lifestyle purchasers, including buyers planning a future move to the Gold Coast. Many are coming from larger homes and want to reduce ongoing maintenance without giving up space for family and guests, privacy, two car spaces or the ability to entertain at home.

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[smartcode_project:default project_id=149670 project_image_fid=360969]

Much of that daily life can also take place beyond the building without requiring a drive. Kurrawa Beach and Pratten Park are an easy walk from Surf Parade, while Pacific Fair, Oracle Boulevard, The Oasis, restaurants, cafés, entertainment and public transport are also within walking distance.

The Eveleigh is Hirsch &amp; Faigen's fourth Gold Coast development since entering the market in 2021, following The Hemingway at Palm Beach, The Emerson at Kirra and Yves at Mermaid Beach. Each of the preceding projects sold out before completion.

“Broadbeach had been on our radar throughout our time operating on the Gold Coast,” the developer said. “Following our projects in Palm Beach, Kirra and Mermaid Beach, Broadbeach represented the natural next step for the business.”

The Surf Parade site brought together proximity to the beach, protected coastal outlooks and walkability to dining, shopping and recreation. Hirsch &amp; Faigen also identified the street as an emerging premium residential address, with enough separation from Broadbeach's busier destinations to retain a quieter environment at home.

The Eveleigh is now under construction by Maxcon, with completion forecast for mid-2028. Three-bedroom residences are currently available from $2.87 million.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=149670]

Joel Robinson

The Eveleigh brings house-like apartments to Broadbeach

A long-stalled Campbelltown development site is back in play, with new plans for 139 apartments set to supersede a mixed-use scheme approved almost a decade ago but never built.

The new proposal for 28 Cordeaux Street would deliver 116 market and 23 affordable apartments in a part 14-storey building, bringing a substantial new project into a Campbelltown market where new apartment supply remains limited.

Plans have been filed over the 3,092 sqm corner site at Moore-Oxley Street, around 600 metres from Campbelltown Railway Station and the city-centre retail core.

The site already carries a mixed-use residential approval dating to 2016. Doroch Architects has now been engaged on a larger replacement scheme, which is progressing as a State Significant Development Application following a Housing Delivery Authority determination in August 2025.

The apartment mix comprises 39 one-bedroom, 72 two-bedroom and 28 three-bedroom residences. Two-bedroom apartments make up just over half of the project, while three-bedroom homes account for 20 per cent.

<img alt="First look: New 139-apartment plans revive long-stalled Campbelltown city centre site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="136dd5b9-3791-4da6-9e31-76f533f5b4de" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Campbelltown%20da2.png?VersionId=LgOSy9nwf5u.MGswBBwaGGxuX8QpHSl_" />

Of the 139 apartments, 23 will be delivered as affordable housing under the in-fill affordable housing provisions of the Housing SEPP. The affordable component represents 15 per cent of the residential gross floor area and will be managed by a registered Community Housing Provider.

Doroch has sought to break the scale of the building into two distinct elements, with a masonry podium of around four storeys establishing the street edge before the residential tower steps back above.

The corner position has shaped that approach. Cordeaux Street faces toward the commercial and civic centre, while Moore-Oxley Street leads into the lower-scale residential neighbourhood to the south, and the design verification report describes the site as "bridging the commercial core to the north and established residential areas to the south."

The podium will be expressed predominantly in face brick, while the upper levels shift to brushed and grooved concrete cladding with darker metal detailing. Recessed sections, deep balcony edges and landscaping break down the upper form, with an approximately 11.8-metre setback to the northern boundary addressing the adjoining St Peters Anglican School.

<img alt="First look: New 139-apartment plans revive long-stalled Campbelltown city centre site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c8b3d2d3-c561-4bfc-a5d9-a68c0c10dac1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Campbelltown%20da1.png?VersionId=AeAEyJU02Gk2k5noUj2StziCvdQ7fW4B" />

Campbelltown has been starved of new residential developments in the last decade.

The only other notable development set to come to market this year is ALAND's Queen Square, a mixed-use precinct on over two hectares that will comprise apartments above a vibrant ground-level retail and hospitality dining precinct.

First look: New 139-apartment plans revive long-stalled Campbelltown city centre site

First Look: Sherlock Construction pitches apartments for low-rise Deception Bay

Queensland builder-developer MAYD has revealed the first look at its major North Kirra beachfront development, lodging amended plans that reduce the number of apartments and increase the proportion of larger residences.

The project is planned across a substantial 4,742 sqm amalgamated site spanning seven lots at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/2-6-pacific-parade-bilinga-qld-4225">2-6 Pacific Parade</a> and 27-33 Golden Four Drive in Bilin​ga, directly opposite Nor​th Kirra Beach.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mayd-group">MAYD</a> secured the site for $32.5 million in 2025, in what was one of the Gold Coast's largest property transactions of the year.

The development will be delivered across two stages, with the first stage carrying an estimated gross realisation value of around $360 million.

The latest amendments seek to reduce the overall apartment count and shift the project further toward the owner-occupier market, with larger residences designed for buyers wanting considerably more space than traditionally offered in a beachfront apartment.

The residential mix will include townhomes, oversized two-bedroom apartments, substantial three-bedroom residences and four-bedroom homes.

MAYD has appointed Cera Stribley to lead the architecture and interiors, with the Melbourne-based design practice drawing on the beachfront setting through a series of ocean-facing terraces and heavily landscaped balconies.

Strong horizontal forms and curved balconies will define the exterior, with subtropical landscaping integrated throughout the building to soften the built form and increase the connection between the residences and the beachfront.

The project will also include an extensive collection of resident wellness and lifestyle facilities, continuing the broader shift across the Gold Coast's luxury apartment market toward larger homes supported by resort-style amenity.

<img alt="MAYD" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1bcbb05-e659-4b47-8bd4-1e595315e2ad" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%202.05.03%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=jj0XEud1X1DuLt7_KyElhjMdZGOXmLHP" />

MAYD Founder Todd Mould said North Kirra was increasingly appealing to buyers attracted to the more established, lower-density character of the southern Gold Coast.

"North Kirra presents one of the most compelling luxury residential opportunities currently emerging in Australia, combining absolute beachfront with the character and authenticity that buyers are increasingly seeking, and the same sense of tight-knit community that defined Burleigh and Currumbin perhaps 10 or 15 years ago," Mould said.

"With Gold Coast Airport on its doorstep, it also offers a level of accessibility that broadens its appeal across almost every market demographic."

The project comes as the southern Gold Coast continues to attract an increasing share of high-end apartment development and buyer activity.

Kirra in particular has emerged as one of the region's more tightly held beachfront markets, with its relatively low-density character, established surf and hospitality scene and proximity to Gold Coast Airport differentiating it from the higher-density markets further north.

Mould said those characteristics had informed the approach MAYD and Cera Stribley had taken to the project.

"We've worked closely with Cera Stribley to create a vision that is deeply connected to its surroundings," he said.

"Inspired by the coastline itself, the architecture has been shaped around space, privacy and resort-style living, creating a collection of homes that reflects the next generation of luxury on the southern Gold Coast."

MOTIV Managing Director Carly Cottam, who has been appointed to market the project, said buyer attention had continued to move south along the Gold Coast.

"Purchasers who may once have defaulted to Broadbeach, Main Beach or Surfers Paradise are increasingly recognising the value of a genuine beachfront location that offers lower density, strong amenity and a more established sense of community," Cottam said.

"Kirra has a powerful combination of growing demand and genuine scarcity. Beachfront supply is inherently constrained, the area remains relatively low density, and buyers are increasingly placing a premium on locations that feel established, uncrowded and authentic rather than heavily developed."

Cottam said the proximity to Gold Coast Airport was also proving increasingly important for interstate and second-home buyers.

"Being minutes from Gold Coast Airport makes it particularly compelling for interstate buyers, frequent travellers and second-home purchasers who can access an authentic coastal lifestyle almost immediately after stepping off a flight."

The acquisition takes MAYD's active development portfolio to more than $500 million, with the North Kirra project representing one of its largest undertakings to date.

MAYD is targeting an early 2027 launch.

First look at MAYD's North Kirra mixed-use precinct

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Castle Hill, the longtime hub of the Hills District, has been one of the major beneficiaries of Sydney's Metro expansion, with improved connectivity helping drive continued population growth, development and buyer demand across the Hills District.

But despite that growth, the suburb has seen relatively few major new apartment projects brought to market over the past 18 months.

Hills District developer Reve Group is looking to fill that gap with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nova-r-ve-castle-hill-2-garthowen-crescent-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Nova Rêve</a>, a major new mixed-use precinct on the corner of Garthowen Crescent and Old Castle Hill Road, a short walk from Castle Hill Metro Station and Castle Towers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377679]

The project will comprise three residential towers alongside a hotel, restaurants, cafes and a skybar, more than 1,600 sqm of ground-floor retail and almost an acre of landscaped gardens.

It represents the largest project undertaken by Reve Group, the development arm of the Kassis family, which has been building across the Hills District for more than 30 years through Kassis Homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377675]

Nova Rêve also represents a significant step up from the family's first apartment development, Grand Rêve, which was delivered nearby on Garthowen Crescent.

Grand Rêve introduced larger, house-like apartment layouts and premium inclusions including Wolf and Sub-Zero appliances to the Castle Hill market.

Nova Rêve takes that approach to a precinct scale, combining the residential component with hospitality, retail and substantial public and resident landscaping.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377685]

Reve Group Managing Director Sam Kassis said the project reflected the family's three decades of building in the Hills, which has evolved from trophy homes on quarter-acre blocks to larger-scale apartment development.

"Grand Rêve was our first apartment project here and it showed us what this pocket of Castle Hill could be. Nova Rêve is the refinement of that idea: not just apartments, but a place the whole suburb can use," Kassis said.

A key part of that approach is the hotel, which has been designed to operate as an amenity for the wider Castle Hill community rather than solely hotel guests.

It will include restaurants, cafes, skybars and all-day dining, alongside conference and event facilities catering to business functions, community groups and private events.

At ground level, more than 1,600 sqm of shops and cafes will open onto the surrounding streets and landscaped areas.

Almost an acre of gardens designed by Land and Form Studios will run through the precinct, incorporating pathways, seating, barbecue areas and children's play spaces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377680]

Reve Group's Romio Georges said creating an active ground plane had been central to the planning of Nova Rêve.

"There are gardens with pathways, barbecues, seating and play areas, shops and cafes opening onto the street, and a hotel with restaurants and a skybar that anyone in Castle Hill can walk into," Georges said.

The project's elevated position on one of Sydney's highest ridgelines will also provide apartments with outlooks toward the Sydney skyline, surrounding parkland and the Blue Mountains.

More than 80 per cent of the apartments will occupy corner positions, with Turner responsible for both the architecture and interiors.

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Nova Rêve arrives as Reve Group bets on Castle Hill's next growth phase

Dwelling Approvals

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Home building approvals started the year on a positive note, with an increase of 2.5 percent during January in seasonally-adjusted terms.
Master Builders Australia's chief economist Shane Garrett said the rise in approvals during January follows a run of weak results during the back end of last year.
"Higher density housing in particular has lost a lot of ground over the past 12 months,” he said. 
“During January, the number of approvals for new detached houses rose by 1.9% with a stronger increase of 3.8% on the apartment/units side of the market,” Garrett said. 
“Despite the welcome increase in approvals during January, we are still down by almost 30% compared with this time last year,” he said. 
“The ongoing difficulties in the flow of credit and concerns about the direction of housing policy post-election are having negative effects on home building activity,” Garrett added. 
“Construction is the economy’s largest provider of full-time jobs and the upcoming round of federal, state and territory budgets provides a real opportunity to get us back onto the right track,” he said. 
During January, WA saw the largest increase in total new home approvals (+28.8%), followed by Tasmania (+15.4%) and NSW (+12.0%). 
The largest reductions affected the ACT (-19.8%) and the NT (-8.0%). Approvals also declined in Victoria (-7.9%), Queensland (-3.5%) and SA (-1.5%) during the month.
The raw figures announced by the ABS may be weak. 
In January, dwelling approvals decline 3.2 percent in trend terms.
Approvals for townhouses and apartments fell just over eight percent in trend terms, with private sector housing decline 0.4 percent.
 
 
 
 
 
 
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Home approval boost in January, but trending lower

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Housing weakness in late 2019 was clearly not confined to just turnover and prices with new dwelling approvals sliding sharply into year end – down 26% between Sep and Dec, the last month marking the lowest level for monthly approvals since June 2013. For Q4 as a whole, approvals were down 10.9%qtr and 23.7%yr.
Approvals are now signalling an unambiguous further weakening that will clearly see declining new dwelling investment detract from Australia’s growth in 2019. Westpac expects new dwelling investment to decline 8% in the year with a further 5% contraction in 2020.
The composition of the approvals decline points to downside risks to this outlook. Units continue to drive the cycle with a further 18.8% drop in Dec to be down 38%yr. Within this segment, ‘high rise’ approvals look to be down a further 16% in the month and by over a third in Q4 as a whole. That is outpacing our assumed path of a cumulative 40% decline by the end of 2019, suggesting weakness may be more pronounced and/or 'front loaded'.
More importantly, there continues to be significant weakness in other segments as well – medium density approvals down over 10% in the month and private detached house approvals down –2.2%mth, –11.3%yr. The shorter ‘lags’ on non high rise work means these declines will likely impact activity through the first three quarters of 2019.
The state breakdown shows weakness spread across the major eastern states: NSW –8.1%mth, –21%yr; and Vic –8.1%mth, –23%yr; and Qld –5.8%mth, –29.7%yr. WA posted a slight gain but is also down 30%yr.
The total value of renovation approvals rose 3.1% to be about flat on a year ago but with a modest uptrend in place. While the rise is mild, it is coming across all the major states.
The total value of non res building approvals fell 9.8% to be down about 15%yr. Latest monthly reads have been choppy around a flat trend, albeit with better gains for NSW and Vic and, by sector, for education-related building in the public sector.
Overall the December approvals update clearly challenges the RBA's view from the November Statement on Monetary Policy that "... dwelling investment is expected to decline gradually" and suggests that, as well as incorporating the weaker starting point from the Q3 national accounts, its revised forecasts to be released in Friday's February Statement on Monetary Policy will also need to materially lower the near term outlook for dwelling investment.
Even if the Reserve Bank maintains its view that the negative 'wealth effect' spillovers from falling house prices will be limited, there is a clear ‘real economy’ negative coming through via new dwelling investment.
MATTHEW HASSAN is a senior economist at Westpac
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Matthew_Hassan-HHWHptmrw4

A clear ‘real economy’ negative coming through via new dwelling investment: Matthew Hassan

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Dwelling approvals continued to fall nationwide in December, according to figures released by the ABS.
Approvals declined over 8.4 percent in December, bringing the seasonally adjusted annual decline to 22 percent.
The annual decline has been driven by apartment approvals, which have now gone back 38 percent over the 12 months to December 2018.
House approvals have declined 11 percent in that time period.
In trends terms, dwelling approvals have now fallen for 14 straight months, down 39 percent from the November 2017 peak.
It's the fourth consecutive quarterly decline, according to economist <a href="http://jamesfostermacro.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">James Foster</a>.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/2/4/ABS-Dwellings.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge</a>.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/2/4/ABS-Dwellings.jpg" alt="">
Daniel Rossi, director of construction at the ABS, said the series is now at its lowest level since June 2013.
"The trend for the total dwelling approvals series has continued to decline over the past year," Ross said.
Economist Lindsay David said building approvals for both Sydney and Melbourne are moving in line with his anticipated 97% fall from the peak.
David said the figures were "recessionary".
Building approvals is always a volatile data set, but the trend is lower and has been for some time.
 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/2/4/Approvals1.jpg" alt="">
Far and away the state with the biggest dwelling approval decline was the Australian Capital Territory where approvals declined over 21 percent.
The ACT was followed by Queensland (6.5 percent), New South Wales (5 percent) and Western Australia (3.8 percent).
South Australia and Victoria registered small declines, while the Northern Territory and Tasmania saw small increases in their dwelling approvals.
"Absolutely horrible building data approvals", economist Stephen Koukoulas tweeted.
Economic data feed AlertFX.com had predicted a 2.1 percent increase in dwelling approvals.
The AUD has reacted negatively to the approvals news, pulling back 20 points in the market.
 
 
 
 
 
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Apartments drive dwelling approval decline back to 2013 levels

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ABS dwelling approvals data have shown a 9.1 percent drop in November.
According to the latest figures Westpac suggest its takes the total decline over the year to 32.8 percent.
The decrease in November was driven by townhouses and apartments, which declined nearly 18 percent, bringing the yearly total decline to 28 percent.
Housing approvals dropped just 2.6 percent in November, a total of 6.4 percent down on the year.
"We are seeing a second leg lower in approvals following a strong and extended upswing," Westpac economist Andrew Hanlan said.
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"The pull-back in approvals from historic highs is against the backdrop: of softer demand, notably from investors (domestic and international); additional supply coming onto the market; and tighter lending conditions.
"High rise developments, which have been a key driver of this cycle, are correcting lower with further falls ahead as suggested by weaker site purchases by property developers.
"The cooling of the housing market will weigh on the economic outlook for 2019, including a likely trend decline in new home building activity," Hanlan said.
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Justin Lokhorst, director of construction statistics at the ABS, said the trend for total dwellings has been steadily declining over the past twelve months.
Relative to Q2, dwelling approvals were hit the hardest in South Australia (-31%) and Western Australia (23.7%).
New South Wales recorded a -19.7% decline, closely followed by Queensland at -19.2%
Victoria, the centre of Australia’s population boom, is now down -11.1% relative to Q2.
Tasmania is an island of strength, with approvals up in the month (+30.6%) and higher since the June quarter (+37.6%).
Diwa Hopkins, an economist at the Housing Institute of Australia, said new home approvals fell to reach their lowest level since August 2013.
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“This weak result shows just how much the current credit squeeze is weighing on the home building sector," Hopkins said.
“The credit squeeze is happening at the behest of the banks’ own lending practices which have been tightened above and beyond APRA’s requirements. 
“HIA research has found that the time taken to gain approval for a loan to build a new home has blown out from around two weeks to more than two months.
Hopkins described APRA’s decision to lift its 30 per cent cap on banks’ interest-only lending as a "welcome development", however suggested more needs to be done to mitigate the growing risks of a hard-landing in the housing market.
“Policy makers and lenders alike need to be cognisant that ordinary home buyers are now facing blow- outs in loan processing times and also much greater rates of flat-out loan rejection. Today’s results show how this is weighing substantially on the new home building sector. 
“We’ve long been anticipating the current downturn in new home building, but there is a risk it could develop more quickly and strongly than expected. 
“In particular policy makers and lenders will need to respond judiciously to the pending release of the Banking Royal Commission’s recommendations,” Hopkins said.
 
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Apartments drive dwelling approval November decline:

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Dwelling building approvals fell an as expected 1.5% in October, with unit approvals down 5.4%.
The trend in alterations and additions is falling at around 0.1% a month.
The trend in non-residential approvals is also falling.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/12/4/Approvals1.jpg" alt="">
The downtrend in dwelling building approvals and in the value of alternations and additions points to gradual decline in dwelling investment over the year ahead.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/12/4/Approvals2.jpg" alt="">
Meanwhile in other data released today
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<li class="x_MsoListParagraph">September quarter business indicators were on the soft side with company profits up 1.9%qoq (against market expectations for a 2.4% gain), the wages bill rising just 0.9%qoq (and don’t forget this allows for wages and employment growth), sales volumes slowing to just 0.1%qoq and flat inventories pointing to a detraction from growth of 0.3 percentage points.</li>
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Taken together this points to a bit of a softening in growth after a few stronger quarters and suggests downside risks to our September GDP growth forecast of 0.6%qoq, although there is data on net exports and public demand to be released tomorrow. 
Finally
<ul type="disc">
<li class="x_MsoListParagraph">ANZ jobs ads fell 0.3% in November with annual growth slowing to 2.3%yoy pointing to softer jobs growth ahead.</li>
<li class="x_MsoListParagraph">The Melbourne Institute’s Inflation Gauge for November basically stalled with headline inflation slowing to 1.6%yoy and underlying inflation slowing to just 1.3%yoy suggesting that inflation may be actually slowing this quarter.</li>
</ul>
Implications for interest rates
Along with CoreLogic data showing ongoing falls in house prices, today’s data adds to our expectation that RBA rate hikes are at least two years away and that there is rising risk that the next move by the RBA will be a rate cut rather than a rate hike.
SHANE OLIVER is Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital.
 
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soliver-smf6LQXgW9

Unit approvals lead building approvals decline in October: Shane Oliver

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Dwelling approvals declined 1.5% in October, in line with the consensus forecast but with both the headline and detail a touch better than we had been expecting.
Approvals remain locked in a clear downtrend but this month's update eases some of the downside risks that had been emerging around non high rise approvals in particular.
Recall that the September approvals report showed a solid headline rise (+5.5% revised up from +3.3% previously) that concealed a much weaker underlying picture.
All of the monthly gain was due to a jump in Vic high rise approvals – excluding this segment, approvals were down 7.5% (since revised to –4.5%).
Moreover, that weak underlying picture followed a sharp 14% drop in approvals over July-August.
Going into the October update we were expecting headline approvals to reconnect with this clear downtrend. Instead the decline is somewhat milder and detail mixed rather than weak.
Private detached house approvals rose 2.7% in October with the previous month's fall pared back to from –2.7% to –1.5%.
The decline in this segment from June's peak is now a much milder 3.5% vs the 7.3% fall presented in September.
Private units posted a 4.8% drop, continuing a volatile run: +13% in September; –23% in August; and –7% in July.
Most of this is due to ‘high rise’ approvals which dropped 40% over July-August, spiked 60% in September and dropped back 40% again in October.
Forward indicators continue to point to a weak outlook for this segment, site purchases in particular.
For the month of October, a strong rise in 'medium density' unit approvals provided a material offset, this small segment up about 25% in the month, reversing a similar sized decline in September.
All states recorded declines in October, Vic showing less of a pull back than might have been expected (–2.6%mth, –13.7%yr) given last month's high rise spike; and SA notably weaker (–17%mth, –24.8%yr).
Across the other majors: NSW approvals were down –0.5%mth, –16.5%yr; Qld –1.1%mth, –13.3%yr; and WA –0.1%mth, –23.1%yr.
The total value of renovation approvals edged up 0.5% but are still down 10%yr with the trend showing no real direction.
The total value of non res building approvals rose 4% but were still down 25%yr.
While trends remain very difficult to discern, recent weakness has been most pronounced across offices.
By state, weakness over the last 3mths has centred on Qld and WA rather than NSW and Vic.
Overall, the October approvals report is weak but not quite as weak as we had feared.
While the detail eases some of the downside risks to the outlook our view remains that residential building will see a significant 5% decline in 2019.
MATTHEW HASSAN is a senior economist at Westpac
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Australian dwelling approvals, another soft month: Matthew Hassan

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
Dwelling approvals rose 3.3% in September, reversing part of the 13% slide over the previous two months but with the monthly move a touch below the consensus expectations of a 3.8% rise.
Despite this, the detail was weak. The monthly gain centred on the famously volatile high rise unit segment, which had fallen sharply over the previous two months. The September high rise bounce was also heavily concentrated in Victoria. Approvals outside of this narrow state segment were significantly weaker (our estimates suggest total dwelling approvals ex Vic high rise were down about 7.5%).
Private detached house approvals declined 2.7% to be down 7.3% since June – a significant shift for what is usually a more stable segment.
Private units in total posted a 9.2% bounce, retracing some of the 20% decline over the previous two months. With-in this, ‘high rise’ approvals jumped 40-50% although this looks to be exaggerated by seasonal adjustment. A sharp fall in 'medium density' partially offset the gain.
By state, the Vic recorded an outsized 30.5% gain but was softer ex high rise (we estimate down 2.3% in seasonally adjusted terms). The other major states recorded big falls, NSW down 6.8%, Qld down 10.5% and WA down 19%.
The total value of renovations edged up 0.8%, the slight trend decline over the first half of the year showing signs of leveling out. Notably, trend approvals in NSW and Vic are down 7.6% since the start of the year.
The total value of non res building approvals declined 3.8%. Trends remain difficult to pick out due to high volatility but the segment looks to be tracking lower in most states.
Overall, the headline gain in dwelling approvals this month is a 'head fake'. Excluding a sharp spike in Vic high rise, something that is very unlikely to sustain, reveals a fairly broad based picture of weakness. Tightening credit conditions are clearly impacting both residential and non residential sectors. The pace of decline remains hard to pin-point but building activity is more clearly tracking towards a contraction in activity heading into 2019.
Matthew Hassan is a Senior Economist for Westpac
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Australian dwelling approvals had an unconvincing bounce: Matthew Hassan

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
Dwelling approvals came in slightly below expectations in April with a 5% fall vs consensus forecasts of a 3% decline. Annual growth slowed to 5.2%yr. The detail was mostly on the soft side.
Private detached house approvals were flat in the month but supported by an abnormally large 20% jump in WA which was coming off very weak reads in February-March. We suspect this relates more to processing issues than conditions on the ground which are still not conducive to a pick-up in the west (Perth house prices still declining and rental vacancy rates above 5%). Ex WA, private detached house approvals were much softer, down 6.7%.
Private units were the main driver of the headline decline, posting a sharp 11.5% drop in the April month. Our estimates indicate high rise unit approvals were down over 20%. While extreme volatility makes this sub-segment hard to read, the monthly series looks to be shaping into a second leg lower, as indicated by site purchase data over the past year. That said, it will still take some time to confirm. ‘Medium density’ approvals also declined sharply, by around 6%mth.
By state, the pull back in units was concentrated in Vic (–8.4%mth but still up 25.8%yr). NSW posted a decent 5% gain and Qld nudged up 1.2% but in both cases approvals are still down on a year ago. Approvals have firmed slightly in SA but are showing clear trends lower in both WA (despite this month's jump) and Tasmania.
The value of renovation approvals dipped 0.3% after a 6.5% drop last month. Although approvals are still up 16%yr the monthly trend has swung into a clear decline.
The value of non-res building approvals fell 4%mth to be down nearly 20%yr. The dominant driver continues to be a sharp fall back in the previously very strong office segment with the slowdown concentrated in NSW and Vic.
The latest Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) annual report has also been released with data confirming the slump in foreign residential purchases. It shows a dramatic 67% drop in FIRB approvals to just 13.2k in 2016-17 from just over 40k in 2015-16. Note that these counts include purchases of existing properties and developer 'off the plan’ approvals, the latter counting projects with multiple properties as a single approval. Our estimates suggest the underlying number of new properties purchased via FIRB approvals saw an even bigger fall, from 52k in 2015-16 to 13.5k in 2016-17. Note that the full impact on activity may take time to come through as developers may still be selling properties in projects that obtained FIRB approval in previous years. More generally, the wider foreign buyer share of total market activity looks to have shrunk from 10-15% to 3-4%.
Overall the April data-flow is broadly in line with our expectations that approvals are tilting towards taking another leg lower through 2018 with the main impact on new dwelling construction coming in 2019.
Matthew Hassan is senior economist with <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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Private units the main driver of dwelling approval decline: Westpac

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
The February 2018 data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) shows NSW housing approvals flattening while Victorian approvals are higher.
NSW approved 5673 new dwellings in trend terms in February 2018 which is similar to January but well down on the July 2016 high point of 6,800.
The smaller state of Victoria approved almost 1,000 more dwellings in February with 6,577 approvals. Clearly Victoria is firing in the new dwelling market.
Victoria’s success has been mainly through their strong house market with 3,353 approvals compared to 2,471 house approvals in NSW. The NSW house approvals have been consistent over the last few years with 2,432 approvals in July 2016.
The NSW apartment market seems to have flattened with 3,202 approvals in February 2018 similar to the January approvals of 3,183. The current approvals for apartments, however, are well down on the July 2016 high point of 4,368 approvals.
The current flattening of housing approval numbers in NSW reflects the uncertain environment created by tighter bank lending and the potential for future levies for affordable housing by councils and the removal of the infrastructure contribution cap.
With a state election less than a year away there is a growing concern about over development being expressed by political candidates to gain the support of residents unhappy about the rate of change.
It is important that politicians at state and local level get behind the Greater Sydney Region Plan that defines the need for 725,000 new homes over a 20 year period.
The plan for A Metropolis of Three Cities sets the agenda for where the cities growth should go and this independent plan produced by the Greater Sydney Commission needs the support of all political parties.
The Urban Taskforce is keen to work with the NSW Government and the Greater Sydney Commission to ensure that housing supply targets are met.
See below graph based on ABS figures
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/4/4/approvals.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/4/4/approvals.jpg" alt="">
CHRIS JOHNSON is the Urban Taskforce CEO.
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NSW housing approvals flat, fall behind Victoria: Chris Johnson

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Guest Observer
Dwelling approvals rose by 17.1 per cent in January after declining by a downwardly revised 20.6 per cent in December (previously -20.0 per cent).
It was the strongest monthly increase in over four years. The annual value of commercial building approvals stands at record highs of $47.4 billion.
What does it all mean?
Commercial building approvals reached record highs in dollar terms at $47.4 billion in January. Strong growth in tourism and high occupancy rates are likely encouraging activity in the CBD hotels sector. High demand for warehousing from growing online retailing may also be supporting industrial commercial developments. Office sentiment also remains elevated according to the latest NAB commercial property survey.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/3/6/commercial%20building.jpg" alt="">
Apartment approvals remain volatile, especially in Melbourne. This is to be expected during the summer ‘low’ season. Victorian dwelling approvals are up by 22.5 per cent over the year, reflecting the underlying strength of the economy and nation-leading population growth.
But it’s Queensland that leads the nation in total building approvals with an annual growth rate of 24.5 per cent. Much has been made of a potential apartment supply glut in Brisbane. Apartment approvals have rebounded, almost doubling over the year to January.
Overall dwelling investment may have peaked, but detached house building activity remains healthy. House approvals are up by 5.9 per cent over the year to January, despite some seasonal weakness, especially in Queensland
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What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
The housing market is continuing to rebalance across the country. Prices are cooling in Sydney and Melbourne and investor demand has subsided in the face of lending restrictions.
Commercial property building has reached record highs. This could provide support for building commencements, especially with residential construction softening from record high levels. Of course, approvals need to translate into starts, though commercial property building activity sentiment is positive.
Apartment supply remains in focus. Seasonal volatility makes it difficult to get a read on council approvals – especially in Sydney and Melbourne. Nevertheless, concerns still persist about a supply glut of inner Brisbane (i.e. West End) and suburban (i.e. Chermside) high rise unit blocks. Still, Queensland is leading the country in jobs growth and interstate migration is strengthening.
Ryan Felsman is a senior economist at CommSec.
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