There’s a quiet patch of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/hawthorn-vic-3122">Hawthorn</a>, between the bustle of Glenferrie Road and the curve of the Yarra, that rarely sees change, and even more rarely, new apartments. But that’s exactly where <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/pomeroy-pacific-quattro-corp">PQD</a> is planting Kooyongkoot: a deliberate, 18-residence answer to the question of what downsizers actually want.

“This is something this pocket of Hawthorn has never seen before,” says Fil Gacesa, head of sales at PQD. “<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/kooyongkoot-hawthorn-1-kooyongkoot-road-hawthorn-vic-3122">Kooyongkoot</a> will deliver just 18 large-scale apartments in the heart of Hawthorn. It is the true definition of resort-style living.”

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/59D7VxzltmM?si=1iCzRD7FRneKryfv" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>

That scale is central to the story. It’s what allows for two dedicated lift cores, short corridors, and a generous lightcourt that draws natural ventilation and sunlight into every residence. It’s also what makes room for the sort of amenity usually confined to high-density towers: a fully equipped wellness centre with infrared and traditional saunas, yoga and pilates studio, cold therapy shower, and treatment room. There’s a golf simulator, car and dog wash stations, and extensive storage too, not bolted on, but baked in from the start.

But more than the checklist, it’s the design intent that carries weight. “This project has been many years in the making,” says Mark Pomeroy, Director of PQD. “Not just in planning, but in listening, to what our buyers and the local community are looking for”.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355289]

That listening shows up in the materials, oak floors, natural stone, V-ZUG appliances, and in how space is handled. Penthouses feature private rooftop terraces with pools. Terraces and garden residences embrace outdoor connection. Inside, the layouts skew large and open, geared for hosting, not just housing.

Architecturally, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a>’s approach is grounded. There’s no reaching for spectacle here. Instead, the building offers a sculptural calm, anchored by landscaping from Eckersley Garden Architecture.&nbsp;

“We wanted to create spaces that feel expansive, serene, and meaningfully connected to daily life,” said founding partner Chris Stribley elsewhere.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355304]

That sentiment, calm, connection, echoes in the location itself. Kooyongkoot sits just a short stroll from Central Gardens, Fairview Park, and the Rivoli Cinema. Tram lines and schools are close, but the street is tucked, quiet, and leaf-lined.&nbsp;

“Residents of Kooyongkoot will be a short stroll from Fairview Park, Central Gardens, and the Glenferrie Road retail strip," Gacesa notes, "but you're also cocooned in this peaceful pocket behind extensive landscaping by Eckersley Garden Architecture.”

Kooyongkoot is set for completion in late 2026.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=102717]

Staff Writer

The project that said no to compromise: Inside Kooyongkoot, Hawthorn

When long-time Ivanhoe locals Graeme and Catherine, decided it was time to downsize, they weren’t necessarily in a rush.&nbsp;

Like many in their stage of life, they had started thinking about apartment living, but anticipated making the shift in two to three years.

That timeline changed when they visited <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/new-apartments/candela-ivanhoe-40-upper-heidelberg-road-ivanhoe">Candela</a>, a new boutique development by <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/developers/salter-brothers">Salter Brothers</a>. The project ticked all the boxes they were looking for: location, quality design, and long-term lifestyle benefits, which prompted them to bring their decision forward.

“It was the right place at the right time,” they said. “We knew immediately it ticked all the boxes, and we didn’t want to wait.”

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Their decision to downsize was driven by a combination of practical needs and lifestyle considerations. Their existing home, while much loved, had become increasingly difficult to maintain. It spanned multiple levels, included extensive front and back gardens, and was starting to show the wear that comes with age.&nbsp;

They were looking for a more manageable lifestyle, one with less upkeep and more freedom. A brand-new apartment with no maintenance requirements and the ability to simply “lock up and leave” gave them peace of mind and a greater sense of control over their future.

Financially, the purchase made sense as well. The available stamp duty savings, strong price-to-value offering, and timing of the settlement suited their plans, making the transition smoother and more cost-effective. The apartment's design and inclusions further supported their choice.

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The layout was both functional and flexible: three bedrooms, a butler’s pantry, a separate laundry, and a large open-plan living area. It gave them the freedom to host a family, accommodate guests, or set up a home office. The expansive balcony and elevated views added to the appeal, providing a sense of openness and connection to the outdoors.

“It just had a really good flow,” Catherine noted, something they found lacking in many other apartments they’d considered, particularly in the established market.

Candela’s boutique scale was another deciding factor. With a smaller number of residences and a top-floor penthouse position, the couple felt the development offered the privacy and space they were looking for, without feeling isolated.

“We liked that it wasn’t a huge development. It felt well-balanced, modern but still with a sense of community, not overwhelming,” they said.

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Equally important was the ability to remain in Ivanhoe, a suburb they know well and have deep roots in. After 46 years in the area, proximity to local parks, shops, and familiar faces mattered just as much as the apartment itself.

“We didn’t want to give up the community we’ve known for decades. Candela allowed us to upgrade our lifestyle while staying in the place we call home.”

With a Walk Score of 90, the village location supports a convenient, connected lifestyle. <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/ivanhoe-vic-3079">Ivanhoe</a> Station is just a eight-minute walk away, and the neighbourhood offers access to parks, cafes, restaurants, and schools along Upper Heidelberg Road, all within easy reach.

Beyond the apartment, the couple also saw value in the broader vision for Candela, one that integrates residential living with public spaces and local amenities.&nbsp;

The development introduces 58 new apartments as well as a mix of commercial and social spaces that integrate contemporary architecture with the suburb’s existing character.&nbsp;

At ground level, residents will find a charming café and a lifestyle wellness centre, perfect for unwinding and rejuvenating. Meanwhile, the rooftop garden offers a stunning vantage point for residents to enjoy breathtaking sunsets, host gatherings, or enjoy barbecues with family and friends. It's not just a place to live; it's a vibrant community where every moment is an opportunity to connect and create lasting memories.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=342]

Why Ivanhoe locals are choosing to downsize to Candela

Mark and Roy Makari are expanding their presence in Sydney’s South West with a second major proposal for Leppington, this time envisioning a 900-dwelling mixed-use development just 850 metres from their previously lodged tower trio on Fifth Avenue.

Project management and construction management firm Creative Vision filed the plans for the&nbsp;multi-building project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/230-rickard-road-leppington-nsw-2179">230 Rickard Road, Leppington</a>. The proposal seeks to establish a new focal point for the precinct through a high-density, transit-oriented development supported by diverse land uses.

According to the Scoping Report prepared for the Department of Planning, the scheme includes around 900 apartments across multiple towers, including 135 dwellings designated for affordable housing. A mix of market and subsidised apartments will be supported by ground-level activation through retail and office space, a childcare centre, and a hotel, forming a comprehensive urban precinct.

<img alt="Mixed Use Development 230 Rickard Rd Leppington" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="34797362-f3dc-4d84-8235-2657fc5f3bde" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Plan.png?VersionId=Uzckrz9tUpDQl5lX1_WMhjnv16bsr8wG" />

The Design Report by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/studiosc-0">Studio SC</a> notes that the project “intends to deliver a high-quality, high-density built form that supports the vision for the Leppington Town Centre, integrating mixed-use outcomes and public domain upgrades.” The development is expected to be delivered in stages, although a precise timeline is yet to be confirmed.

The project will be assessed through a future State Significant Development Application, with the Scoping Report indicating the team will seek design excellence via a competitive process or through an expert design review panel. Early massing diagrams suggest a series of mid- to high-rise buildings framing a central landscaped spine, with emphasis on pedestrian permeability and public space.

The planning documentation flags a strong sustainability agenda, stating that the development will “respond to the urban heat island effect, incorporate water sensitive urban design, and prioritise active transport”.

<img alt="Mixed Use Development 230 Rickard Rd Leppington" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="369d7b54-1279-4cde-88ec-dcb215594414" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Podium_1.png?VersionId=QArL7B2kkLt63vl5xvL0FNV_ardAlez4" />

The proposal follows in the footsteps of the Makaris’ nearby Fifth Avenue site, where they’ve submitted plans for three towers comprising nearly 500 apartments, with 10 per cent dedicated to affordable housing. That project features commercial podiums, a childcare centre, and a new public park that would occupy more than a third of the site.

Both developments are situated within walking distance of Leppington Train Station and fall under strategic precinct plans promoting higher density housing. The town centre is undergoing substantial transformation, driven by state government planning reforms aimed at fast-tracking housing delivery.

Together, the two projects represent a combined ambition of nearly 1,400 new homes across just under two kilometres of central Leppington.

First look: 900-home mixed-use precinct planned for Leppington

Leading Australian integrated property development group, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/aqualand-australia">Aqualand</a>, has released the signature penthouses crowning its landmark AURA by Aqualand precinct at 168 Walker Street in North Sydney, unveiling Il Magnate and La Divina as the largest and most luxurious penthouses in the suburb.

With prices anticipated to commence from $15 million, and each accompanied by a new Porsche Carrera 911 valued at over $500K, the residences mark the culmination of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/aura-by-aqualand-north-sydney-168-walker-street-north-sydney-nsw-2060">AURA by Aqualand</a>’s decade-long journey and the beginning of its final sales chapter. 
&nbsp; 
Their release follows more than $850 million in record-breaking residential sales and the building’s completion and occupation.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=30959 project_image_fid=358868]

The Richards Stanisich-designed 284 sqm Il Magnate and 224 sqm La Divina penthouses, collectively known as The Icons of AURA, are conceived as grand luxury homes rather than apartments, with expansive proportions, elevated materiality and curated identities that reflect their status as one-off residences.&nbsp;

Il Magnate features a grande master suite, complete with substantial walk-in dressing area and ensuite, three other bedrooms, second ensuite and another bathroom, powder room, open plan kitchen, scullery, substantial dining area and generous living room divided by a feature fireplace, and a multifunction wintergarden, which is ideal for a study and adjoining office breakout space. &nbsp;

Meanwhile, the La Divina residence offers the same amenities, sans the powder room, on a slightly smaller alternate floor plan configuration.

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Each occupies half of AURA by Aqualand’s topmost 28th level, comes with four secure car spaces and pairs sweeping Sydney Harbour panoramas with large-scale living spaces, refined detailing and a level of craftsmanship and amenity rarely offered in the North Shore market.&nbsp;

Penthouse residents will also receive Etymon’s ‘Black Key’ private concierge and lifestyle management service, an invitation only offering providing the ultimate in bespoke personalisation, including a range of everyday discrete services, from dinner party management, grocery deliveries, pet feeding or plants watered, dinners, snacks and coffee deliveries, event ticket sourcing, right up to organising travel visas and international airfares. Rarely seen in Australian properties, the service provides residents the benefits of living in a world-class luxury hotel-style home, akin to The Ritz, or the Waldorf Astoria.

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<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/richards-stanisich">Richards Stanisich</a>’s Director, Kirsten Stanisich, said the studio set out to craft residences that feel profoundly considered, contemporary and deeply connected to their setting.

“From the outset, we approached these penthouses with the sensibility of a grand Parisian residence - generous in scale, elegant in proportion and designed to feel more like a handcrafted home than an apartment," Stanisich said.

“Their elevated position and sweeping harbour outlook informed every decision, creating a rare connection between urban sophistication and natural calm. We shaped each space with expressive materiality, sculptural forms and bespoke detailing that invite touch and interaction.&nbsp;

“The result is a pair of residences defined by volume, light and an inherent softness - refined, flexible and deeply personal. These penthouses are unlike anything else in North Sydney, offering a sanctuary of true luxury framed by some of the city’s most remarkable views.”

For Aqualand’s Head of Sales &amp; Marketing, Alex Adams, the collaboration with Porsche underscores the shared ethos behind the residences.

“Aqualand’s collaboration with Porsche underpins both brand’s sharing an obsession with craftsmanship, design excellence, and enduring value," Adams said.

“Our penthouses are created for those who appreciate the finer details and expect the extraordinary at every touchpoint. Including a Porsche simply extends that experience beyond the residence - it’s a continuation of the lifestyle our buyers already live.”&nbsp;

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Aqualand’s Managing Director, Jin Lin, said the penthouses represent both the pinnacle of AURA by Aqualand and an important design benchmark for the company’s future pipeline.&nbsp;

“These stunning penthouses reflect the purest expression of Aqualand’s design ambition," Lin said.

“The unparalleled design intent makes them not only the glistening crown of AURA by Aqualand, but the crown of North Sydney itself. They’re essentially a thank you gift to a burgeoning community that deserves this level of quality and architectural consideration.&nbsp;

“We’re leveraging the unrivalled standard set here as the foundation for what comes next, including our upcoming Anderson Street, Chatswood; 15 Blue Street, North Sydney and Central Barangaroo projects. Purchasers of these penthouses will essentially be living inside the blueprint of Aqualand’s future.

“These landmark residences demonstrate how far North Sydney has evolved and the strength of demand for highly curated, bespoke luxury homes. They’re more than penthouses, they’re legacy residences.&nbsp;

“With AURA by Aqualand now a thriving new precinct with residents well and truly settled, and our in-house world-class lifestyle amenity activated, Il Magnate and La Divina represent a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to secure an extraordinary piece of North Sydney’s future.”

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=30959]

Joel Robinson

Aqualand launches North Sydney penthouses with free Porsche Carrera 911

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/bokarina-qld-4575">Bokarina</a> Beach has quietly evolved into one of the Sunshine Coast’s most complete coastal lifestyle precincts, defined not just by proximity to the ocean, but by how residential living, local retail and everyday amenity are stitched together.&nbsp;

Gardner Vaughan Group’s <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bask-bokarina-38-bokarina-boulevard-bokarina-qld-4575">Bask Bokarina</a> now represents the final residential chapter in that transformation.

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Over recent years, the Bokarina Beach precinct has taken shape as a walkable, community-oriented neighbourhood, anchored by beachfront access, Lake Kawana to the west, and a growing mix of cafés, specialty retail and public open space.&nbsp;

With Zinc Bokarina already delivered next door by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gardner-vaughan-group">Gardner Vaughan Group</a> (GVG), Bask is the last opportunity to buy a brand new apartment within the precinct, effectively rounding out a fully formed coastal village.

GVG has positioned Bask to strengthen that lifestyle framework. Ten ground-floor retail spaces are planned beneath the residences, extending Bokarina Boulevard’s existing activity and reinforcing the area’s everyday convenience, from casual dining and coffee to local services, within a short walk of the beach.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=141609 project_image_fid=333359]

The residential component comprises 135 apartments across two buildings, Mydas and Caretta, with a clear shift toward larger three- and four-bedroom layouts and penthouses. That mix reflects a maturing buyer profile in Bokarina, where demand is increasingly led by owner-occupiers and active downsizers seeking space, permanence, and connection to place rather than short-term coastal accommodation.

Design and amenity have followed the same logic. Residents will have access to a heated plunge pool, gym, private dining room with a full kitchen, landscaped communal gardens with barbecues and a firepit, and a shared herb and vegetable garden, facilities intended to support daily use rather than resort-style turnover. Pet-friendly features, including a dog wash bay, acknowledge both buyer expectations and the area’s dog-friendly beach, located around 250 metres from the site.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=141609 project_image_fid=333366]

“Bokarina has become one of the Sunshine Coast’s most desirable beachside communities, and Bask represents the very last chance to buy new in this location,” GVG Director Sam Gardner said.&nbsp;

“Our focus has been to create spacious, functional apartments that meet the needs of locals who want to downsize without compromise, as well as those seeking a full-time coastal retreat.”

Positioned between the Pacific Ocean and Lake Kawana, Bask apartments have been oriented to capture outlooks toward the water or the Glass House Mountains, reinforcing the project’s connection to its natural surroundings. With parks, beachfront paths, hospitals, retail and public transport already in place, Bask arrives at a point where the broader precinct is no longer emerging, but established.

Construction is expected to complete in Q3 this year, with apartments ready to move into this Spring.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=141609]

Bask to complete Bokarina’s Sunshine Coast lifestyle precinct as final apartments are released

Detached Housing

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Approvals for new detached houses across Australia have sagged to their lowest level since June 2013.
Building approvals in April 2019 indicate that the number of approvals for all categories of new dwelling fell by 4.7% during the month. New detached house approvals dropped by 2.9% while the volume of approvals for apartments/units saw a 7.2% fall. Total approvals are now down by 24.2% over the past year.
Since the beginning of the new home building downturn in late 2017, the bulk of the pain has been concentrated in the high density segment of the market. 
With today’s figures now showing detached house approvals at a 6-year low, it is ominous that the weakness in new home building is spreading to those parts of the market which are traditionally more resilient during downturns.
Obviously, these figures relate to the month immediately prior to the federal election and the political uncertainty which was then at play has contributed to the weaker results for April.
Now that there has been a clear conclusion to the federal election, a real opportunity exists to push home building activity back in the right direction. 
Many significant infrastructure projects have been announced by government over the past year. Speedily converting these announcements into real, visible activity on the ground would provide a major boost to the building industry, the wider economy and confidence more generally.
During April 2019, the number of approvals for new home rose in Queensland (+11.3%), followed by the ACT (+7.7%) and New South Wales (4.8%). 
The largest drop in new dwelling approvals affected Tasmania (-19.1%) followed by Victoria (-16.1%). There were also falls in new home approvals in Western Australia (-6.7%), South Australia (-3.3%) and the Northern Territory (-2.0%). 
SHANE GARRETT is Master Builders Australia’s Chief Economist
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Detached house approvals reach six year low: Shane Garrett

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
Australia’s home renovations sector enjoyed its busiest quarter in 14 years during the three months to September 2018.
While GDP grew by a fairly disappointing 0.3% during the September 2018 quarter, home renovations activity provided more cheer.
The volume of renovations work rose by 4.5% during the quarter alone and was 11.0% higher than a year ago.
Times have often been tough for Australia’s home renovations market over the past decade but today’s figures show that the market is now bigger than at any time since mid-2004.
While new home building scaled new records over recent years, the performance of renovations activity has been quite puzzling and had failed to replicate this strong performance.
The stronger position of the renovations market during the September 2018 quarter is linked to the fact that interest rates are very low and remarkably stable at this time.
The tightening of credit conditions have prevented many families from being able to move house over the past year. It seems that some of those have decided to renovate their existing home instead.
Australia’s home renovations industry may be an unintended beneficiary of the tougher lending policies.
Looking further out, we are almost certain to see further gains for home renovations.
More detached houses were built in late 1980s Australia than at any time before or since.
More and more of these will be begging for major renovations work in the coming years.
SHANE GARRETT is the MBA Chief Economist.
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Australia's home renovations had the busiest quarter in 14 years: Shane Garrett

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<div class="column">GUEST OBSERVER</div>
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<div class="column">Australian residential property price growth has continued to surpass expectations in recent quarters, suggesting more limited scope for further gains.</div>
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<div class="column">Consequently, NAB Economics has reduced its forecasts for detatched house price growth in 2016. Nationally, prices are now forecast to increase 2% in 2016 (from 3%), largely reflecting a slower pace of growth in Sydney and Melbourne.</div>
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 While price growth will slow, a sharp correction in prices is still not expected given supportive market fundamentals and continued foreign demand for new dwellings. Risks have increased, however, especially in the apartment market which has seen a sharp increase in construction activity.
House price strength not expected to continue.
In last week’s NAB Residential Property Survey, we cut our forecasts for house price growth in 2016. This was a reflection of both the stronger than expected growth seen in house prices to date, which appears increasingly unsustainable, and some tightening in financing conditions observed in the mortgage market (largely brought about by macroprudential changes and major banks’ reactions to higher capital requirements). 
<a href="/images/2015/11/5/Screen%20Shot%202015-11-06%20at%2012.45.13%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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For 2015, NAB Economics is expecting average national house price growth of 9.9%, which is much higher than expected earlier in the year. The rapid pace of house price growth has not been experienced uniformly across the market. Capital growth has been led by Sydney and Melbourne, with house price growth forecast to be 14.9% and 15.7% respectively over 2015.
 Modest gains in 2015 are also forecast for Brisbane (3.6%), while Adelaide will be up modestly. In Perth, house prices are expected to fall (-6.7%), with the slowdown in the mining sector and associated softening in population growth playing a negative role in the local market.
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In an environment where income growth continues to be modest, alongside lower population growth, the rates of house price growth seen in Sydney and Melbourne are unlikely to continue, suggesting more modest price gains in 2016. The ratio of median house prices to household disposable income has lifted considerably in these markets since the RBA commenced easing monetary policy in 2011, cutting the cash rate from 4.75% to 2% currently (Chart 2).
Additionally, regulatory changes to address risks in housing credit (particularly investor credit) have tightened conditions in the mortgage market, which is likely to have at least some impact on housing demand (even if only at the margin). However, the response from some corners claiming that these factors point to a sharp correction in house prices in the medium term, are extreme in our view. 
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One major reason for this is because housing affordability has not deteriorated as much as price to income ratios would suggest. A major drawback of these simple ratios is that they do not capture the offsetting (positive) impact from lower interest rates (smaller mortgage repayments) on housing affordability.
To capture the effects of lower interest rates, it is more informative to compare median house prices to the hypothetical borrowing capacity of the average household (in each respective state). This comparison suggests much less cause for concern, although continues to point to a somewhat overheated market in both Sydney and to a lesser extent Melbourne. 
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This result is broadly consistent with estimates of market (over)valuation produced by the IMF in their latest ‘Australia – Selected Issues’ report (published in September).
It is important to note that all property market valuation techniques have their shortfalls – such as being highly sensitive to the assumptions made – but can be a useful guide to market risk. The IMF concluded from their analysis that house prices in Australia were moderately higher than fundamentals, but less overvalued than ‘a comparison to historical or international averages would suggest.’ We would concur with this finding. 
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In addition to record low interest rates, a number of years of sluggish growth in housing supply (relative to demand), has helped to allay fears of a severe market correction – at least in certain markets. While measures of pent-up demand are highly sensitive to the assumptions used, simple measures such as rental vacancy rates suggest that pent-up demand is still supportive in some markets, especially Brisbane and Sydney. While new supply through apartments has come on line, new detached housing supply has not increased greatly for most markets relative to population (see below).
Having said that, population growth in Australia has been slowing in line with the winding down of the mining boom, although growth in the major eastern states has remained robust, supported by interstate flows. Foreign student arrivals are also expected to be strong, especially in these states, assisted by a more favourable AUD – which should be particularly beneficial for apartment demand. Overall, these trends suggest that slower population growth will imply weaker house price gains, but that the major eastern states should prove to be somewhat more resilient.
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In light of pent up demand and an environment of low interest rates , it would most likely require a substantial shock to the labour market and/or for interest rates to increase sharply to trigger significant declines in house prices – while there are risks, neither of these are anticipated in our forecasts. Rather, the most likely outcome would be a prolonged period of very subdued capital growth. A period of subdued capital growth would also be consistent with our expectation of a period of subdued rental growth. 
 
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Nevertheless, there are signs that elevated prices are discouraging home buyers and cooling the housing market. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute survey of consumer sentiment, for example, shows that households consider it to be a pretty poor time to buy a property. This sentiment has been reflected in market indicators, with the national clearance rate holding below 70% in the week ending 18 October (Sydney was at 66.6%). 
The forecast for average national house price growth in 2016 has been lowered to 2.3%, previously 3.0%, following an expected 9.9% for 2015. A strong supply response in the apartment sector (Chart 8), however, suggests a weaker outlook for this market, and greater reliance on foreign buyers and domestic investors adds a degree of unpredictability to the outlook. In 2016, the slowdown in average national house price growth to 2.3% is largely driven by a moderation in both Sydney and Melbourne prices growth (see Chart 2). NAB Economics expects house price growth to decelerate in Sydney to 1.2%, while price growth in Melbourne will ease to 3%. Brisbane is tipped to see the fastest house price growth (4.5%), and the Adelaide market is expected to improve (2.4%). Perth will remain weak, although price declines are forecast to ease (-1.2%). 
 
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<a href="/images/2015/11/5/Screen%20Shot%202015-11-06%20at%201.10.41%20PM.png" target="_blank"> Click to enlarge</a>
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Overall, our assessment is that the possibility of a sharp correction in the Australian housing market is remote, although continued rapid price growth in Sydney and Melbourne over the past 6 months suggests the risks have risen. While it would take a sharp deterioration in the labour market and/or a large increase in interest rates to trigger a severe decline in house prices, worsening affordability will most likely cap price growth going forward. 
Supply is also responding to higher prices - this may exert downward pressure on some segments of the market, although measures of pent-up demand (under-supply) vary across markets (e.g. still quite supportive for Sydney housing) and do not capture foreign demand. However, approvals for new apartments have been large in some areas (e.g. Melbourne CBD), which poses a risk in these segments. 
 
<a href="/images/2015/11/5/Screen%20Shot%202015-11-06%20at%201.11.46%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/11/5/Screen%20Shot%202015-11-06%20at%201.11.46%20PM.png" alt="" width="1246" height="344">
 
Alan Oster is group chief economist, National Australia Bank, and can be contacted <a href="https://business.nab.com.au/author/alan-oster/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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