One of North Sydney's best-known commercial buildings could become hundreds of new homes, with insurance giant Zurich Australia lodging a State Significant Development Application (SSDA) to transform 5 Blue Street into a mixed-use residential development above North Sydney Station.

Rather than demolishing the existing building and starting again, Zurich is proposing an adaptive reuse project that would convert the landmark office building into a 15-level residential development delivering 62 apartments, 86 affordable co-living dwellings, activated retail and significant upgrades to the Blue Street Plaza.

The proposal reflects a growing trend of commercial property owners repositioning ageing office assets into residential housing as Sydney grapples with housing supply shortages and changing workplace demand.

<img alt="Zurich" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0bba7d12-06dc-4375-aad7-238c94b21ac5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-22%20at%2010.42.05%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=NJl5oLAEBDGuPmY3RnyliKODjMc8lvRh" />

Located directly above North Sydney Metro and train station, the 3,051 sqm site occupies one of the most strategically positioned parcels of land on Sydney's Lower North Shore.

Designed by fjcstudio, the proposal seeks to retain and adapt much of the existing structure while creating a contemporary residential address that better connects with the public domain surrounding North Sydney Station.

The application proposes two basement levels, ground floor retail, affordable co-living accommodation across the podium levels, and apartments above, while preserving and enhancing the publicly accessible Blue Street Plaza.

Rather than pursuing maximum apartment numbers, Zurich has opted for a housing mix heavily weighted towards larger owner-occupier residences.

The proposal includes 62 build-to-sell apartments comprising 12 one-bedroom, 19 two-bedroom, 29 three-bedroom apartments and two premium penthouses. It also incorporates 86 affordable co-living dwellings, which would be managed in perpetuity by a Community Housing Provider.

That balance between traditional apartments and affordable housing reflects the NSW Government's push to increase housing diversity around major transport infrastructure.

The proposal has been lodged concurrently with a rezoning application, with Zurich arguing the site is ideally positioned to support additional housing given its immediate proximity to public transport, employment and services.

"The proposal aims to respond to the housing challenges facing Sydney through the delivery of diverse housing types in a highly accessible location," the design report by fjcstudio states. It also seeks to improve pedestrian amenity through upgrades to Blue Street Plaza while creating a high-performing residential building that responds to the surrounding context.

<img alt="Zurich" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="36082e15-c636-4481-bb68-5a5f6443fe39" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-22%20at%2010.41.36%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=5P6VD.fvmqjQfIG3TWWMRXxQWiQBjeFB" />

Rather than replacing the commercial building, fjcstudio has developed a design that works with the existing structural framework above the rail corridor, an approach that significantly reduces demolition while allowing the site to be repositioned as a mixed-use residential precinct.

The existing structural constraints have informed much of the building's design, including its relationship with Blue Street and surrounding public spaces.

The building has been designed as a slender tower rising above a clearly defined podium, with vertically expressed façades intended to reduce the perceived bulk while reinforcing North Sydney's emerging skyline.

According to fjcstudio, the architectural language responds directly to the surrounding commercial towers while maintaining a finer grain expression more closely aligned with the neighbouring Lavender Bay streetscape.

The tower incorporates articulated façade elements, landscaped podium edges and recessed upper levels to soften its appearance and improve pedestrian amenity below.

A significant component of the proposal is the revitalisation of Blue Street Plaza.

The existing public space has long served as one of the primary pedestrian connections between North Sydney Station, Greenwood Plaza and Blue Street, yet its role is expected to become even more important following the opening of Sydney Metro.

Zurich's proposal seeks to strengthen that role by improving landscaping, introducing new retail frontages, enhancing pedestrian permeability and creating more active edges throughout the day and evening.

Ground floor retail would wrap the plaza, while separate residential and co-living entries have been designed to improve wayfinding without reducing street activation.

Landscape design has been integrated throughout the podium and public realm, softening what is currently one of the most heavily urbanised parts of North Sydney.

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fjcstudio has carefully oriented apartments towards Sydney Harbour and the CBD while using privacy blades and articulated façades to minimise overlooking between neighbouring buildings.

Large framed openings along the western elevation maximise harbour outlooks, while the eastern apartments have been angled towards the south-east to improve privacy from neighbouring development.

The project forms part of the continuing transformation of North Sydney from a predominantly commercial CBD into a genuine mixed-use city centre.

Since the completion of Victoria Cross Metro Station, developers have increasingly shifted their attention towards residential projects capable of leveraging the area's unparalleled transport connectivity.

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FiveX recently lodged plans for a 61-storey, 490-apartment tower that would become one of the tallest residential buildings in North Sydney if approved.

Aqualand continues to expand its Lower North Shore presence following the completion of AURA on Walker Street and its recent St Leonards and Roseville proposals.

Developers are also progressing projects throughout Walker Street, Miller Street and the Victoria Cross precinct as demand for well-located owner-occupier apartments continues to strengthen.

Joel Robinson

First look: Zurich targets North Sydney office conversion with 148-unit proposal above Metro station

Busy developer Aqualand Prestige has formally taken the next step in its expansion across Sydney's Lower North Shore, lodging a State Significant Development Application (SSDA) for its long-held Archer Street site in Chatswood.

The application covers <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/51-55-archer-street-chatswood-nsw-2067">51-55 Archer Street</a>, a 1,767 sqm amalgamated site on the eastern edge of the Chatswood CBD, where the developer is seeking approval for a 45-level mixed-use tower delivering 114 apartments, including a significant affordable housing component, alongside retail, commercial space and six basement levels of parking.

The SSDA marks the latest milestone for a project Aqualand has been quietly progressing over the past two years. The developer first secured the site for its Aqualand Prestige platform before undertaking an alternative design excellence process with PTW Architects, ultimately avoiding a formal design competition through the Housing Delivery Authority pathway.

The proposal has evolved considerably from Aqualand's original concept. The revised scheme has been designed around larger owner-occupier product, with an unusually high proportion of three and four-bedroom apartments, targeting the more affluent buyer profile, and downsizer, emerging across the North Shore.

<img alt="Archer St" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0171204c-5811-41b5-9b09-2335d1b7c3d0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-22%20at%208.52.48%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=6YTuxfq.puZo7k2wbfgemcO5K3QfXYGQ" />

The 114-apartment mix comprises six studios, 27 one-bedroom apartments, 18 two-bedroom apartments, 50 three-bedroom residences and 13 four-bedroom homes. A quarter of the building will be dedicated to affordable housing, well above the mandated 15 per cent&nbsp;

PTW has structured the building vertically, with affordable housing across levels one to six, premium apartments through levels seven to 31, duplex skyhomes on klevels 32 to 43, a penthouse on level 44, and a rooftop plant level above. Six basement levels will provide resident parking and servicing.

The tower is proposed to reach approximately 154 metres, placing it among a growing collection of residential high-rises transforming Chatswood's skyline.

Rather than competing purely on height, PTW says the design has been driven by creating a slimmer tower capable of delivering significantly larger apartments.

"The primary objective of this project was to create a distinctive building that stands out from the recently approved or built structures in the Chatswood area," the design report states, noting the structural efficiency allows greater investment into apartment quality and resident amenity.

Residents would have access to more than 450 sqm of communal open space including landscaped gardens, swimming pool, rooftop entertaining areas, fitness spaces, community gardens, children's play areas and barbecue facilities.

A major focus of the design has been the public domain.

The ground plane has been opened up through landscaped terraces inspired by Willoughby's sandstone ridges, with native planting, public seating, artwork, retail activation and a series of gathering spaces intended to soften what has traditionally been a hard commercial streetscape.

The landscape strategy references Blue Gum forests once common throughout the area, while incorporating Indigenous storytelling, public art and lighting installations to strengthen the connection to Country.

Chatswood has been one of Sydney's busiest apartment markets over the past 12 months, with a steady pipeline of both new project launches and fresh development applications.

Hyecorp recently launched Celine, a 122-apartment development just along Archer Street, while Changfa and Huirong Group are progressing The Anderson, an 84-apartment project on Anderson Street.

Develotek recently secured approval for a 101-apartment tower on Pacific Highway, while Tian An LFD received the green light for Hammond Greens, its apartment development on the edge of the Chatswood Bowling Club.

Commercial property developer FiveX is also making its move into the residential market. Last month it lodged plans for a 61-storey tower with 490 apartments, which, if approved, would become one of the tallest residential buildings in Chatswood.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-fivex-targets-chatswood-skyline-with-61-storey-tower-after-north-sydney-plans">First look: FiveX targets Chatswood skyline with 61-storey tower after North Sydney plans</a>

Aqualand is also expanding its development pipeline following the launch of its luxury residential brand, Aqualand Prestige. The developer has delivered a string of high-end apartment projects across Sydney's affluent suburbs over the past decade, most recently AURA by Aqualand on Walker Street in North Sydney.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=30959 project_image_fid=292863]

It has since quietly assembled its next wave of projects.

Earlier this year Aqualand launched Boronia in Roseville, a boutique 111-apartment development on Larkin Street. The project is one of the first significant apartment developments to launch in the suburb ahead of what is expected to become one of Sydney's most active new housing precincts under the NSW Government's Low and Mid-Rise Housing reforms, which allow greater density around train stations.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152095 project_image_fid=373685]

The developer has also lodged plans for a two-tower, 413-apartment development on Herbert Street in nearby St Leonards, further strengthening its presence across the Lower North Shore.

Beyond that, Aqualand remains behind the final stage of Barangaroo, where plans will deliver a five-hectare mixed-use precinct comprising new homes, retail, hospitality and community facilities, alongside a new Metro entrance and more than two hectares of public open space, completing the Barangaroo precinct.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/central-barangaroo-development-takes-big-step-with-concept-proposal-approval">Central Barangaroo development takes big step with concept proposal approval</a>

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-aqualand-joins-st-leonards-apartment-party">First look: Aqualand joins St Leonards apartment party</a> 
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First look: Aqualand pushes ahead with Chatswood apartment tower as SSDA lodged for Archer Street

Mass timber is becoming an increasingly popular construction material in apartment developments, but Adelaide developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/otello">Otello</a> is taking the approach a step further.

At its new <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flowe-bowden-18-gibson-street-bowden-sa-5007">Flowe Bowden</a> development, the exposed cross-laminated timber (CLT) structure isn't just about reducing the building's environmental footprint. It also forms the foundation of a broader wellness strategy, influencing everything from indoor air quality and natural materials to the way residents move through and experience the building.

The 115-apartment mixed-use development, designed by Melbourne-based architecture practice Fieldwork, will occupy a prominent island site opposite Bowden Village Reserve, combining one, two and three-bedroom apartments with retail and a dedicated wellness destination.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152022 project_image_fid=375528]

Wellness isn't confined to a gym or shared resident facility at Flowe. Instead, Fieldwork embedded the concept into the building itself.

The development has been split into two residential wings connected by a naturally ventilated central breezeway, replacing traditional enclosed corridors with open-air walkways that improve natural light, encourage cross ventilation and create more opportunities for neighbourly interaction.

"Rather than treating wellness as something that only happens on the ground floor, our response integrates it throughout the building, which led us to ask what it really means to design a healthy building," Fieldwork Director Quino Holland said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152022 project_image_fid=375531]

The building's architecture also reflects Bowden's industrial heritage. The lower podium references the area's historic brick and sandstone buildings, while the upper levels transition to exposed CLT, allowing the timber structure to become a defining feature throughout the apartments and shared spaces.

The use of mass timber sits alongside a range of sustainability initiatives, including a fully electric, gas-free design, rooftop solar and a targeted 5 Star Green Star rating.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152022 project_image_fid=375524]

Inside the residences, the focus remains on natural, durable materials. Blackbutt engineered timber flooring, exposed CLT ceilings, porcelain surfaces and warm timber joinery create a calming interior palette, while low-VOC finishes and responsibly sourced materials have been selected to improve indoor air quality.

Kitchens have been designed as the centrepiece of each apartment, featuring porcelain island benchtops, timber-look cabinetry and brushed steel tapware, with layouts that maximise natural light and ventilation.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152022 project_image_fid=375530]

The more traditional interpretation of wellness comes in the form of Level Eleven, a two-storey wellness club spanning the ground floor, mezzanine and first floor.

The facility will include a gym, yoga and reformer Pilates studios, Finnish and infrared saunas, magnesium hot and cold plunge pools, and dedicated recovery spaces. Unlike many residential wellness facilities, Level Eleven will also operate commercially, allowing the broader Bowden community to access the venue while giving residents exclusive membership benefits.

The ground floor has also been designed around everyday living. A café overlooking Bowden Village Reserve will activate the street frontage, while a bike workshop with tool storage, co-working space and dog wash has been incorporated to support daily routines and encourage interaction between residents.

"Flowe brings together my two biggest passions, creating places and creating healthier lives," Otello founder Daniel Harris said.

"We wanted to create something Adelaide hasn't seen before, a genuinely healthy building, where the way you live is lifted without even trying."

Flowe is positioned directly opposite Bowden Village Reserve and within walking distance of Bowden Railway Station and the Adelaide Entertainment Centre, placing future residents just minutes from the Adelaide CBD while remaining connected to one of the city's most established urban renewal precincts.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152022]

Otello launches wellness-focused Flowe Bowden with Adelaide-first mass timber apartment design

Not all apartment amenities are immediately visible.

Swimming pools, gyms, rooftop terraces and residents' lounges have long featured on buyers' wishlists, but as the way Australians live has changed, so too have the features that make apartment living more convenient.

Increasingly, buyers are placing value on the practical aspects of day-to-day life. Fast internet, EV charging, secure bike storage, flexible workspaces and parcel management are becoming just as relevant as lifestyle amenities, reflecting changing habits and expectations.

Online shopping has been one of the biggest drivers of that shift.

Australians spent a record $82.6 billion shopping online in 2025, with almost one in every four retail dollars now spent digitally, making parcel deliveries a routine part of everyday life rather than an occasional convenience.

For apartment residents, however, receiving those deliveries isn't always straightforward.

Without someone home to accept a parcel, deliveries can be redirected to a nearby Post Office, left in building foyers or common areas, or require building management to temporarily store packages. As apartment living continues to grow across Australia's cities, parcel management has become an increasingly important consideration for both residents and developers.

Australia Post's Parcel Locker network is one response to that shift.

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/KPZ9j5FRdsQ?si=Qztc1dNP3ZvEIUhb" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>

Rather than relying on home delivery, eligible parcels can be directed to a nominated Parcel Locker, where they're securely stored until collected. Once a parcel arrives, residents receive a notification through the AusPost app or SMS and can retrieve it using a one-time code or QR code at a time that suits them.

The network has expanded to more than 1,500 locations nationwide, with Parcel Lockers positioned at Post Offices, shopping centres, supermarkets, transport hubs and, increasingly, within or alongside residential developments.

That growing presence reflects a broader change in how apartment buildings are being planned.

Developers are increasingly considering the operational side of apartment living alongside traditional lifestyle amenities. Just as secure mailrooms, bicycle storage and EV charging have become more common inclusions, parcel management is emerging as another feature that supports everyday convenience.

It also helps preserve the arrival experience within a building. Carefully designed lobbies and communal spaces can quickly become cluttered when deliveries accumulate, while secure parcel solutions reduce the likelihood of missed deliveries or parcels being left unattended.

For buyers comparing apartments, these everyday details are becoming part of the decision-making process.

Location, floorplans and finishes remain fundamental, but the features that simplify daily life are carrying greater weight than they once did. As online shopping continues to shape consumer behaviour, secure parcel delivery is increasingly becoming another amenity worth looking for.

Parcel delivery is joining the apartment amenity checklist

Inca Property Group has lodged a State Significant Development Application (SSDA) for Dawn, a 53-apartment oceanfront development overlooking Mona Vale Beach.

The proposal, at 35-39 Darley Street East, would replace an existing 18-apartment strata building with a new owner-occupier-focused development comprising 53 two and three-bedroom apartments, including nine affordable built-to-rent residences delivered under the State's infill affordable housing scheme.

Positioned on a 2,679 sqm elevated site around 280 metres from Mona Vale Beach, the development has been designed to maximise panoramic ocean views while responding to the site's sloping topography.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/inca-property-group">Inca Property Group</a> Managing Director Josh Thompson said the State Significant pathway provided greater certainty for projects of this scale.

"This State Significant pathway gives the team real certainty to progress <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/dawn-35-39-darley-street-east-mona-vale-nsw-2103">Dawn</a> through to completion," Thompson said.

"It allows us to acquire a one-off site, design it carefully and deliver the right offering for the suburb, assessed by the NSW Government's planning department."

The project is one of the first developments in the area to be assessed under the NSW Government's Low and Mid-Rise Housing policy, with the site sitting on the edge of the policy's designated inner area.

The proposal includes three basement levels providing 124 car spaces, alongside a range of resident amenities including a swimming pool, gym, sauna, wellness facilities and private plunge pools for selected ground-floor and penthouse apartments.

<img alt="Dawn" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="fc1a1daf-0ce4-4f12-9076-b1fa553c7a91" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-21%20at%208.42.11%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=4GZ9h.gpNkTljbxyAET8Jfhv51XUamDm" />

Thompson said Dawn had been designed specifically for owner-occupiers and downsizers, a buyer profile that has driven demand across Inca's recent Upper North Shore developments.

"The majority of buyers in our recent North Shore projects have been downsizers, and we are learning exactly what this market is looking for. Beyond the location itself, we have included resort-style amenities to deliver a genuine lifestyle offering," Thompson said.

Located within walking distance of Mona Vale Beach, the town centre, Mona Vale Golf Club and the Royal Motor Yacht Club, Dawn represents Inca's first Northern Beaches project following the sell-out of Tara on Park in Waitara and Ellis Residences, currently under construction in St Ives.

Construction will be undertaken by Inca's in-house construction arm, GOP Constructions.

Dawn is the latest major apartment proposal for Mona Vale, with the suburb emerging as one of the key beneficiaries of the NSW Government's new Low and Mid-Rise Housing policy.

New developer One Living, led by industry veteran Joseph Scuderi, recently secured a site on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, where it is planning around 140 apartments.

IPM is also planning its third project in Mona Vale, significantly increasing the scale of its previous developments with an 82-apartment proposal at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/159-167-darley-street-west-mona-vale-nsw-2103">159-167 Darley Street West</a>, opposite Bayview Golf Course and less than 800 metres from Mona Vale town centre.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/one-living-enters-sydneys-new-apartment-market-with-northern-beaches-site-acquisition">One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition</a>

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-ipm-plans-third-mona-vale-project">First look: IPM plans third Mona Vale project</a>

First look: Inca eyes Mona Vale with State Significant DA for Dawn apartments

Deflation

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<h1> </h1>
GUEST OBSERVER
Deflation refers to persistent and generalised price falls.
It occurred in the 1800s, 1930s and the last 20 years in Japan. Most people would see falling prices as good because they can buy more with their income. However, deflation can be good or bad depending on the circumstances.
In the period 1870-1895 in the US, deflation occurred against a background of strong economic growth, reflecting rapid productivity growth and technological innovation. This can be called “good deflation”. However, falling prices are not good if they are associated with falling wages, rising unemployment, falling asset prices and rising real debt burdens. For example, in the 1930s and more recently in Japan. This is “bad deflation”.
In the current environment of high debt levels, sustained deflation could cause big problems. Falling wages and prices would make it harder to service debts. Lower nominal growth will mean less growth in tax revenues making high public debt levels harder to pay off. And when prices fall people put off decisions to spend and invest, which could threaten economic growth. This could risk a debt deflation spiral of falling asset prices and falling incomes leading to rising debt burdens, increasing defaults, spurring more falls in asset prices, etc. There are good reasons why central banks want to avoid that.
As can be seen in the next chart, there are still more countries experiencing deflation than hyperinflation.
<h1><a href="/images/2016/05/31/chart-2.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></h1>
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<img src="/images/2016/05/31/chart-2.png" alt=""> Source: Thomson Reuters, AMP Capital
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The RBA eased this month because actual inflation has fallen below target and is likely to stay there for a while.
Cutting inflation targets would be foolish and make it harder to get inflation back up to target.
Low rates are helping the Australian economy and zero rates and quantitative easing have helped the US. Central banks are not out of ammo.
For investors, it’s likely to remain a low interest rate environment for some time to come.
This year has seen a growing concern that central banks are out of ammo when it comes to reinvigorating global growth and preventing deflation. And the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest rate cut has some fearing that it’s going down the same “failed path” as other major central banks. But is it really that bad? Have central banks really failed? Are they really out of ammo?
Why did the RBA ease again?
The latest RBA rate cut, which took the official cash rate to a record low of 1.75% percent, surprised many because recent economic data in Australia has been OK. But the reason for the cut is simple. Inflation has fallen well below the RBA’s 2-3 percent target, the weakness in prices was broad based and inflation is expected by the RBA to remain below target or at the low end of the target for some time.
<a href="/images/2016/05/31/chart-1.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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<img src="/images/2016/05/31/chart-1.png" alt=""> <div class="article-body">
Source: ABS, RBA, AMP Capital
Naturally, the RBA worried that if it didn’t provide more stimulus to the economy low inflation could become entrenched and could give way to deflation. With the $A pushing up towards $US0.80 prior to the cut and the Fed continuing to delay rate hikes, the RBA was no doubt also concerned that if it didn’t ease the $A would push even higher, putting more downwards pressure on inflation.
<h2>Why not just lower the inflation target?</h2>
Since the last RBA cut, some have said that the RBA should just lower its inflation target because it cannot fight falling global commodity prices and what’s wrong with very low inflation anyway. This reminds me of a similar argument back in 2007-08, when inflation had pushed above 4%, that the RBA should not worry but just raise its inflation target as it cannot fight rising global commodity prices. Such arguments are nonsense.
First, the whole point of having an inflation target is to anchor inflation expectations. If the target is just raised or lowered each time it looks like being seriously breached then those expectations - which workers use to form wage demands and companies use in setting wages and prices - will simply move up or down depending on which way the target is changed. And so inflationary or deflationary shocks from things like commodity prices will turn into permanent shifts up or down in inflation. Second, there are problems with allowing too-low inflation. Most central bank inflation targets are set at 2% or so because statistical measures of inflation tend to overstate actual inflation by 1-2% because statisticians have trouble actually adjusting for quality improvements and so some measured price rises really reflect quality improvements. In other words, 1.5% inflation could mean we are actually in deflation. And there are problems with deflation – see below.
<h2>How far will the RBA cut rates?</h2>
To the extent that the minutes from the RBA’s May meeting indicate the RBA had considered “waiting for more information”, it may choose to sit tight at its June meeting. However, given the downside risks to inflation, particularly with wages growth falling to a record low 2.1%, constrained growth and the still high $A more rate cuts are likely. We are allowing for two more rate cuts this year, taking the cash rate to 1.25% by year end.
<h2> </h2>
</div>
<div class="article-body">
<h2>What has been driving deflation?</h2>
Several factors have driven the plunge in global inflation and some countries dipping into deflation: commodity prices have been in a downtrend since 2011 as their supply surged; and the sub-par global recovery since 2009 means the world has plenty of spare capacity. Global economic activity is around 2.5% below potential. Excess capacity means companies lack pricing power and workers lack bargaining power.
<h2>But are rate cuts actually working?</h2>
Some worry that rate cuts have just made things worse by cutting into the spending power of retirees and forcing those nearing retirement to save more. However, there are several points to note in relation to this. First, the level of household deposits in banks in Australia at around $0.9 trillion is swamped by the level of household debt at $2.2 trillion. So the household sector is a huge net beneficiary of lower interest rates. Second, the responsiveness to changes in spending power for a family with a mortgage is far greater than for retirees. Third, the proof is in the pudding. The fall in interest rates has helped the economy rebalance as mining investment has collapsed: first via a pick-up in housing construction and more recently via growth in consumer spending of close to 3% per annum (pa). While those close to retirement may be saving more because of lower investment returns, the household saving rate overall has drifted down from 11% to around 8% since the first RBA rate cut in late 2011. And of course RBA rate cuts have helped push the $A lower. So overall, rate cuts do work.
<h2>Have non-traditional monetary policies failed?</h2>
This is a relevant question with many saying that zero interest rates and quantitative easing in developed countries have not worked. But actually in the US they have as growth there has been averaging around potential at 2% pa, unemployment has fallen from 10% to below 6%, wages look to be picking up and underlying inflation is close to the Fed’s 2% inflation target. Sure, the Eurozone and particularly Japan are less clear but this may be because they waited too long before acting by which time low inflation or deflation had become entrenched. The lesson from this is that central banks need to act quickly and not that non-traditional monetary policy doesn’t work.
<h2>Are central banks out of ammo?</h2>
This is a common concern. However, central banks are a long way from being unable to do anything: the Fed can reverse last year’s interest rate hike and launch another round of quantitative easing if needed; and both the ECB and Bank of Japan could expand their quantitative easing programs further both in terms of size and the type of assets. More negative interest rates are an option but central banks are wary of this after the adverse impact of Japan’s experience regarding negative rates.
The ultimate option is for central banks to provide direct financing of government spending or tax cuts using printed money. This is often referred to as “helicopter money”. Unlike quantitative easing, which requires banks to lend their newfound cash to borrowers who want to borrow, it would yield an almost guaranteed response as the recipients of government spending/tax cuts will spend at least some of it. It won’t add to government debt either. As the examples of Zimbabwe and the Weimar Republic demonstrate, such an approach would make no sense if supply is constrained relative to demand and inflation is already high and rising. But that is not the case now and deflation remains the main threat, not inflation.
Of course none of these are an issue for the RBA as it still has plenty of scope to cut interest rates if needed.
Ideally, central banks should be getting more help from governments in terms of fiscal stimulus and supply side reforms but there are all sorts of constraints around this.
<h2>Implications for investors?</h2>
There are a number of implications for investors. First, while the worst may be over in terms of commodity price falls so the threat from deflation may be receding globally, the risk remains thanks to spare capacity and low wages growth, so low interest rates will remain in place for some time. While the Fed may continue down its path of gradual rate hikes, elsewhere rates are likely to stay low and, in Australia, fall further. Australian term deposit rates at around 2% are at their lowest since the early 1950s. So don’t expect great returns from them.
Second, given the absence of significant monetary tightening, a 1994-style bond crash remains as distant as ever. The most likely outcome is just low returns from government bonds.
Third, the low interest rate environment means the chase for yield is likely to continue supporting commercial property, infrastructure and shares offering sustainable high dividends.
Finally, as can be seen in the next chart, low inflation is generally good for shares as it allows shares to trade on higher price to earnings multiples. But it would be preferable not to see low inflation slip into deflation as this could be bad for shares given it tends to go with poor growth and profits and as a result shares trade on lower PEs. The same would apply to assets like commercial property and infrastructure.
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<div class="article-body"><a href="/images/2016/05/31/chart-3.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<img src="/images/2016/05/31/chart-3.png" alt=""> Source: Global Financial Data, Bloomberg, AMP Capital
So, combined with the social damage that a bout of debt deflation could cause, I would much prefer to see central banks continue to do all they can to avoid deflation.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://plus.google.com/110172465327488162875?rel=author" target="_blank">SHANE OLIVER</a> is head of investment strategy and economics and chief economist at <a href="https://www.ampcapital.com.au/home" target="_blank">AMP Capital</a> and is responsible for AMP Capital's diversified investment funds.
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RBA rate cuts, inflation targets, deflation and are central banks out of ammo? AMP Capital's Shane Oliver

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Today we're laying a loose framework for the best investments during deflation. Why? Because deflationary signals have reared their ugly head as of late. Not to mention, many prominent investment managers have voiced their concern about the dreaded scenario. 
While inflation versus deflation has been the great debate over the past two years, the deflationistas have been boasting quite loudly as of late. We've detailed how David Gerstenhaber's global macro hedge fund Argonaut Capital thinks deflation is the greater risk. Additionally, Broyhill's Affinity hedge fund has been betting on deflation as of late. PIMCO's bond king Bill Gross has been buying treasuries in order to combat these fears. And for more, The Reformed Broker has a quick summary of the New York Times' deflation round-up as well. While investing during the dreaded 'D' word is not impossible, the options to preserve and grow capital are certainly limited. So, what is the best investment for deflation? Very broadly and in no particular order, here's some potential answers: Cash/US Dollar: The phrase "cash is king" is often cliche. It's not cliche during deflation, it's rule number one. Assuredly, cash is one of the few 'safe' investments you can make in this scenario. Over the normal course of investing, most investors focus on their return on capital. 
This time around, the focus is simply on return *of* capital. While many wouldn't consider this an investment, having physical cash notes saved and on hand can be crucial during extreme situations including: bank failures, a collapse in credit, or the government defaulting on its debt. Not to mention, the US dollar has been a strong performer during deflationary times. Holding the physical currency is easy enough, but those wishing to further their wager can play the PowerShares US Dollar Bullish Index (UUP). Pay Off Debt: Again while 'paying down debt' doesn't sound like an investment, it most definitely is during deflation. In a period where literally every single dollar matters, each dollar of debt can become crippling. Buy Long-Term Bonds: Alternative to cash, fixed income is also seen as an option for those who seek protection. While fixed income yields decline due to Federal Reserve easing in an effort to combat deflation, the underlying bond should appreciate (or at the very least, depreciate much less than equities). US Treasuries are highly coveted here as they are the safest and most in-demand. If one were to go the corporate bond route, seeking high quality bonds is preferred. The thesis behind this play is laid out by Broyhill's Affinity hedge fund in their presentations: ten reasons to buy bonds as well as their bet on long-term treasuries. The most logical wager here would be the iShares Barclays 20+ year Treasury (TLT). Short Equities: Traditional investments will start to suffer as underlying companies will see lower margins and losses. Not to mention, highly leveraged companies make ideal short selling targets and certain companies can face the risk of becoming insolvent. If your conviction is strong enough, you could simply short the S&amp;P 500 index (SPY). There is, however, one potential safe haven in equities (keyword being 'potential'), which brings us to the next investment: Buy High Quality Dividend Paying Stocks: Understand that during deflation, equities in general are one of the major investments to avoid. However, high quality stocks could be a potentially dim light in an otherwise dark scenario. While the majority of companies will lose pricing power and succumb to weak margins, large cap high quality companies that dominate their industries may be able to maintain pricing power. Not to mention, many of these stocks pay dividends which generate valuable cash during deflation. Seek companies with pristine balance sheets. GMO's Jeremy Grantham recently voiced concern about deflation and one of his few investment recommendations was to buy high quality stocks. For ideas, hedge fund T2 Partners recently issued a presentation on 3 large cap stocks. Sectors to look toward include healthcare, technology, and telecom as those have outperformed in Japan during their deflationary lost decade. Microsoft (MSFT) is one name that has been repeatedly mentioned by strategists and managers. Keep in mind though that despite being high quality blue-chip companies, these are still equities. As such, there is obviously inherent risk in owning them during deflation. Short Housing/Avoid Real Estate: In deflation, prices fall. As such, rent rather than own. Stand back and let the landlords watch the values of their properties plummet. You can short the iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate (IYR) for some exposure. Short Leverage: Deleveraging should be a big theme playing out in the future, environment notwithstanding. As mentioned earlier, short the equity of companies that have poor balance sheets and are highly levered. In deflation, leverage begins to unwind and currency plays can be found. A massive leveraged carry trade in the Yen has taken place over the years and as such would be unwound in deflation, thus benefiting the Yen. Long Technology: Regardless of environment, technology will advance and will be in demand. The technology sector was highlighted as one of the few areas to possible allocate capital in high quality equities. Companies that have strangleholds on their industry should have an advantage. A basket of technology stocks could be purchased via the technology exchange traded fund (XLK). However, that gives you exposure to a lot of companies and it's probably more preferable to single out high quality technology names with pristine balance sheets such as Microsoft (MSFT), Intel (INTC), and Cisco Systems (CSCO). Gold: Conventional wisdom says to avoid precious metals during deflation. During the Great Depression from 1929-1932, commodities in general crashed. However, in very extreme circumstances (emphasis on extreme), some have argued that gold can make sense when acting as currency. The majority of proponents for owning gold during deflation would cite its store of value or hedge against uncertainty. While gold can be played via the SPDR Gold Fund (GLD), many hedge funds advocate physical gold. That said, those doing so are mainly seeking inflationary protection. Buy TIPS: Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, or TIPS, serve as long-term protection from inflation. Buying TIPS during deflation? What's the point? This is an option if investors believe that deflation will eventually lead to inflation two or three years later. As policy makers attempt to combat deflation, the natural antidote is inflationary medicine. As such, investors looking further down the road can fend off these inflationary pressures with TIPS. And even if deflation persists for an extended period of time, TIPS still produce income via yield and investors can regain their bond's face value at maturity. This can be played via iShares Barclays TIPS Bond Fund (TIP) for those looking for an easy solution. That sums up some of the best ways to position a portfolio when confronted with deflation. Recent concern is duly warranted considering that deflation typically rears its ugly head after periods of prolonged globalization and global growth. Such growth leads to increased investment, a massive increase in production, and thus excess capacity all around the world. This excess capacity then brings forth lower prices. In deflation, companies suffer while the consumer is the real winner. The above present theoretical options of how to invest during such a scenario. Make no mistake though, investing during deflation can be quite difficult and painful. Back in August 2008 when the crisis was heating up, we penned a very broad outline of investment scenarios for inflation versus deflation. During the pinnacle of the crisis, it wasn't quite clear which situation would play out so it made sense to lay a framework for each context. (And arguably, it's still not entirely clear. Many have hypothesized that we'll see a compromise of views: deflation in the near-term and inflation in the long-term). A few months ago, inflation was all the rage. Now, deflation is the primary concern. Investors have been flip-flopping more frequently than politicians as of late. Regardless of outcome, it makes sense to be prepared for either environment. 
This article is reprinted from market folly, Monday 9 August 2010.
For more information, <a href="https://www.marketfolly.com" target="_blank">click here</a>. 
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