Not all apartment amenities are immediately visible.

Swimming pools, gyms, rooftop terraces and residents' lounges have long featured on buyers' wishlists, but as the way Australians live has changed, so too have the features that make apartment living more convenient.

Increasingly, buyers are placing value on the practical aspects of day-to-day life. Fast internet, EV charging, secure bike storage, flexible workspaces and parcel management are becoming just as relevant as lifestyle amenities, reflecting changing habits and expectations.

Online shopping has been one of the biggest drivers of that shift.

Australians spent a record $82.6 billion shopping online in 2025, with almost one in every four retail dollars now spent digitally, making parcel deliveries a routine part of everyday life rather than an occasional convenience.

For apartment residents, however, receiving those deliveries isn't always straightforward.

Without someone home to accept a parcel, deliveries can be redirected to a nearby Post Office, left in building foyers or common areas, or require building management to temporarily store packages. As apartment living continues to grow across Australia's cities, parcel management has become an increasingly important consideration for both residents and developers.

Australia Post's Parcel Locker network is one response to that shift.

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/KPZ9j5FRdsQ?si=Qztc1dNP3ZvEIUhb" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>

Rather than relying on home delivery, eligible parcels can be directed to a nominated Parcel Locker, where they're securely stored until collected. Once a parcel arrives, residents receive a notification through the AusPost app or SMS and can retrieve it using a one-time code or QR code at a time that suits them.

The network has expanded to more than 1,500 locations nationwide, with Parcel Lockers positioned at Post Offices, shopping centres, supermarkets, transport hubs and, increasingly, within or alongside residential developments.

That growing presence reflects a broader change in how apartment buildings are being planned.

Developers are increasingly considering the operational side of apartment living alongside traditional lifestyle amenities. Just as secure mailrooms, bicycle storage and EV charging have become more common inclusions, parcel management is emerging as another feature that supports everyday convenience.

It also helps preserve the arrival experience within a building. Carefully designed lobbies and communal spaces can quickly become cluttered when deliveries accumulate, while secure parcel solutions reduce the likelihood of missed deliveries or parcels being left unattended.

For buyers comparing apartments, these everyday details are becoming part of the decision-making process.

Location, floorplans and finishes remain fundamental, but the features that simplify daily life are carrying greater weight than they once did. As online shopping continues to shape consumer behaviour, secure parcel delivery is increasingly becoming another amenity worth looking for.

Joel Robinson

Parcel delivery is joining the apartment amenity checklist

Inca Property Group has lodged a State Significant Development Application (SSDA) for Dawn, a 53-apartment oceanfront development overlooking Mona Vale Beach.

The proposal, at 35-39 Darley Street East, would replace an existing 18-apartment strata building with a new owner-occupier-focused development comprising 53 two and three-bedroom apartments, including nine affordable built-to-rent residences delivered under the State's infill affordable housing scheme.

Positioned on a 2,679 sqm elevated site around 280 metres from Mona Vale Beach, the development has been designed to maximise panoramic ocean views while responding to the site's sloping topography.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/inca-property-group">Inca Property Group</a> Managing Director Josh Thompson said the State Significant pathway provided greater certainty for projects of this scale.

"This State Significant pathway gives the team real certainty to progress <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/dawn-35-39-darley-street-east-mona-vale-nsw-2103">Dawn</a> through to completion," Thompson said.

"It allows us to acquire a one-off site, design it carefully and deliver the right offering for the suburb, assessed by the NSW Government's planning department."

The project is one of the first developments in the area to be assessed under the NSW Government's Low and Mid-Rise Housing policy, with the site sitting on the edge of the policy's designated inner area.

The proposal includes three basement levels providing 124 car spaces, alongside a range of resident amenities including a swimming pool, gym, sauna, wellness facilities and private plunge pools for selected ground-floor and penthouse apartments.

<img alt="Dawn" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="fc1a1daf-0ce4-4f12-9076-b1fa553c7a91" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-21%20at%208.42.11%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=4GZ9h.gpNkTljbxyAET8Jfhv51XUamDm" />

Thompson said Dawn had been designed specifically for owner-occupiers and downsizers, a buyer profile that has driven demand across Inca's recent Upper North Shore developments.

"The majority of buyers in our recent North Shore projects have been downsizers, and we are learning exactly what this market is looking for. Beyond the location itself, we have included resort-style amenities to deliver a genuine lifestyle offering," Thompson said.

Located within walking distance of Mona Vale Beach, the town centre, Mona Vale Golf Club and the Royal Motor Yacht Club, Dawn represents Inca's first Northern Beaches project following the sell-out of Tara on Park in Waitara and Ellis Residences, currently under construction in St Ives.

Construction will be undertaken by Inca's in-house construction arm, GOP Constructions.

Dawn is the latest major apartment proposal for Mona Vale, with the suburb emerging as one of the key beneficiaries of the NSW Government's new Low and Mid-Rise Housing policy.

New developer One Living, led by industry veteran Joseph Scuderi, recently secured a site on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, where it is planning around 140 apartments.

IPM is also planning its third project in Mona Vale, significantly increasing the scale of its previous developments with an 82-apartment proposal at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/159-167-darley-street-west-mona-vale-nsw-2103">159-167 Darley Street West</a>, opposite Bayview Golf Course and less than 800 metres from Mona Vale town centre.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/one-living-enters-sydneys-new-apartment-market-with-northern-beaches-site-acquisition">One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition</a>

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-ipm-plans-third-mona-vale-project">First look: IPM plans third Mona Vale project</a>

First look: Inca eyes Mona Vale with State Significant DA for Dawn apartments

Seasoned Victorian apartment developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/central-equity">Central Equity</a> has logged more than $400 million in sales in its luxury apartment project Palmera Residences at Northcliffe on the Gold Coast.&nbsp;

Central Equity Director Karl Kutner said the sales result reflected a combination of location, product quality and delivery certainty with the project already under construction by building powerhouse Multiplex.&nbsp;

"Surpassing $400 million in sales since launch is a significant milestone and an outstanding endorsement of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/palmera-residences-gold-coast-18-garfield-terrace-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Palmera Residences</a>,” he said.&nbsp;

"We believe one of the key reasons for this strong result is the confidence purchasers have in knowing the project is under construction with Multiplex. Buyers are increasingly looking for certainty. They want to know that the project they commit to today will be delivered by an experienced team with a proven track record."&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365782]

Kutner said it was clear there was still high demand for luxury projects that offered certainty of delivery.&nbsp;

“We are in a market where many residential developments have faced delays due to rising construction costs, labour shortages and financing challenges,” said Kutner.&nbsp;

"But having construction underway has provided our buyers with resounding confidence backed by more than 40 years of development delivery by Central Equity combined with construction by one of Australia's most respected construction companies."&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365785]

Central Equity is one of Australia's most experienced privately-owned property developers. Over more than four decades, the company has delivered in excess of 85 residential developments including 10,000 apartments and many thousands of stand alone homes.&nbsp;

Located on Garfield Terrace at Northcliffe, between Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach, Palmera Residences occupies one of the Gold Coast's most sought after beachside locations. The development has been designed to appeal to owner occupiers seeking premium residences that combine generous living spaces and resort style amenities.&nbsp;

Palmera Residences will feature an exceptional collection of resort style amenities, including two swimming pools: a generously sized family pool with safe shallow zones for relaxed recreation, and a 20 metre lap pool positioned to maximise all day sunlight.&nbsp;

Residents will also enjoy exclusive access to wellness and recreational facilities including a magnesium pool, sauna, yoga studio, expansive fitted gymnasium, resident lounge, outdoor BBQ’s&nbsp;and indoor and outdoor dining areas, together with a dedicated concierge and luxurious hotel inspired entrance foyer.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365767]

A unique feature at Palmera Residences has been designed to enhance the Gold Coast lifestyle which includes both indoor and outdoor gymnasium facilities, together with thoughtfully designed indoor and outdoor dining and entertaining areas. A corner café has also been incorporated to provide residents with a destination for their everyday needs.&nbsp;

Kutner said buyer demand had been broad based with purchasers attracted from interstate as well as throughout South East Queensland.&nbsp;

"We're seeing strong interest from owner occupiers, lifestyle buyers and people relocating to the Gold Coast. Many purchasers have been searching for a premium beachside residence where quality, design and delivery are equally important."&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365771]

Kutner said the sales milestone was an important achievement, but the focus remained firmly on delivering an exceptional development.&nbsp;

"While reaching $400 million in sales is an important milestone, our priority remains delivering a project that exceeds purchaser expectations,” he said.&nbsp;

"Palmera Residences has been designed to become one of the Gold Coast's landmark residential addresses, and we look forward to welcoming our purchasers to their new homes."&nbsp;

There are a limited number of residences remaining in selected configurations with pricing from $2,950,000 to $8,950,000. Palmera Residences is also crowned by expansive penthouses with wrap around views.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=108274]

Construction certainty and strong buyer demand drive major sales result for luxury Gold Coast development

Palmera Residences fly out the door as sales pass $400 million

National property developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/goldfields-group">Goldfields</a> has appointed BINAH as its construction partner for Quartet, its new Brisbane apartment development in the undersupplied suburb of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/milton-qld-4064">Milton</a>.

Located just two kilometres from the Brisbane CBD and moments from key 2032 Olympic precincts, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/quartet-milton-33-manning-street-milton-qld-4064">Quartet</a> will deliver 131 one, two, three, and four-bedroom apartments priced from $1 million to $4.2 million, combining elevated design with a wellness-focused lifestyle offering.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108736 project_image_fid=368000]

Goldfields’ Chief Executive Officer, Lachlan Thompson, said the appointment of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/binah-constructions">BINAH</a> marked an important milestone for the project.&nbsp;

“Bringing BINAH on board as our construction partner will allow us to bring our vision for Quartet forward with a team that has a proven track record of delivering high-quality residential projects,” Thompson said.&nbsp;

“We’ve taken a considered approach to progressing the site because we wanted to deliver the whole package. Buyers ultimately back great developers, great projects and great builders, and with Quartet, we’ve made sure all three line up.

“People want certainty, they want to know the project will be built, that the homes will be delivered as promised, and that the developer stands behind the quality of what they create. That’s something Goldfields has built its reputation on over many years.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108736 project_image_fid=367993]

BINAH’s Managing Director, Khalil Hafza, said the company was proud to be partnering with Goldfields to deliver Quartet.&nbsp;

“Quartet is an exciting project to bring to life, particularly given the level of detail in the residences and the extensive rooftop amenity planned for the building,” Mr Hafza said.&nbsp;

“Our focus is on delivering a high-quality build that brings that design vision to life and creates homes residents will enjoy for many years.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108736 project_image_fid=367999]

The facilities at Quartet have been feared towards the roof, with a&nbsp;25 metre lap pool, spa, sauna and cold plunge, and a communal barbecue area and alfresco.

Town planning was designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a> and brought to life by Melbourne-based architecture firm Cera Stribley.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/cera-stribley">Cera Stribley</a> Co-Founder and Managing Principal, Dom Cerantonio, said the project responds to both its riverside setting and Brisbane’s evolving urban character.&nbsp;

“Quartet has been designed to sit comfortably within its riverside context, offering a refined take on urban living through well-planned, generously proportioned residences that will stand the test of time,” Mr Cerantonio said.&nbsp;

“An emphasis on natural light, natural textures and carefully selected finishes from timber and marble to premium appliances, creates calm, considered interiors designed for comfort and long-term liveability.”&nbsp;

Construction of Quartet will commence in July 2026, with completion anticipated in Q4 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=108736]

Construction to commence on 131-residence tower designed around wellness-focused living

Goldfields appoints BINAH for Quartet apartments in Milton

The first partnership between national developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/fortis">Fortis</a> and Adelaide-based developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/otello">Otello</a> has made a strong start, with the pair securing $21 million in unconditional sales at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/one-four-four-hutt-adelaide-144-hutt-street-adelaide-sa-5000">One Four Four Hutt</a>&nbsp;on the edge of the Adelaide CBD.

Over a third of apartments have been snapped up in the boutique 44-apartment project on the corner of Hutt Stret and Wakefield Road. Local downsizers and owner-occupiers wanting to remain in Adelaide's tightly-held southeast quarter have been the most prominent purchasers.

The DKO-designed, mixed-use development is one of the few new apartment projects in the precinct, an area where new housing supply has remained limited despite continued demand from buyers wanting to stay close to the CBD, Victoria Park and Adelaide's established east-end amenities.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151233 project_image_fid=375378]

Fortis Head of Development SA Arthur Dendrinos said the early sales reflected both the strength of the local owner-occupier market and confidence in the Hutt Street location.

"The level of early commitment reflects the confidence local buyers have in the Hutt Street precinct," Dendrinos said.

"Many purchasers are long-term east-end residents who love the area and want to stay connected to the neighbourhood. They recognise the value of a well-designed, well-located development.

"Our partnership with Otello has been central to this success, and the number of unconditional sales at this stage only strengthens our confidence in the South Australian market."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151233 project_image_fid=375379]

Otello Director Daniel Harris said the sales result also highlighted the lack of new apartment opportunities within the Hutt Street precinct.

"One Four Four Hutt has clearly resonated with buyers, with strong early sales reflecting both the appeal of the Hutt Street corridor and the lifestyle on offer," Harris said.

"The activated ground-floor retail has also been a key drawcard, with purchasers responding to the vision of a more vibrant and connected streetscape, not just the residences themselves."

One Four Four Hutt will deliver 44 one, two and three-bedroom apartments, alongside a collection of penthouses, above a ground-floor retail offering designed to further activate the Hutt Street precinct.

Construction is scheduled to commence in the third quarter of this year, with completion anticipated in 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=151233]

Fortis Head of Development SA Arthur Dendrinos said the early sales reflected both the strength of the local owner-occupier market and confidence in the Hutt Street location.

Fortis makes Adelaide debut with Otello as One Four Four Hutt records strong early sales

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EXPERT OBSERVER
For the seventh quarter in a row inflation has underperformed market expectations with the headline CPI lifting 0.4% in the quarter compared to an median expectation of 0.5% qtr.
Westpac’s forecast was for 0.4% qtr.
Interestingly the mix of sectors prices was broadly as we had expected with some small downside and upside surprises but the overall print was slightly to the downside of our expectations.
At two decimal places the CPI rose 0.36% in the quarter while our forecast was 0.42%.
Following the December quarter CPI Westpac argued that searching for inflation in the Australian economy has been a fruitless as Vladimir and Estragon’s wait for Godot.
We are now looking at the play having a record run with the ABS for while there may be some anecdotal hints that inflation is around, the ABS is yet to report its appearance in any solid form in the CPI Survey.
Core inflation came in as expected rising 0.5% qtr (0.46% at two decimal places so a soft 0.5%) suggesting that Australian forecasters, as a group, are broadly getting the core inflation pulse corrected but continue to underestimate the deflationary pulse that is hitting certain sectors leading to greater than usual discounting (or less than usual post sales repricing) in those sectors.
The six month annualised pace of headline inflation printed 1.6%yr, down from 2.2%yr in Q1 and the recent peak of 2.5%yr in Q4 2017.
For core inflation, the six month annualised pace is now 2.0%yr from 2.0%yr in Q1, 1.7%yr in Q4 2017and 2.0%yr in Q3.
With core inflation just at the bottom of the RBA’s target band, inflation remains well contained at a very modest pace. This would leave the RBA quite comfortable with the current stance of monetary policy.
Without a doubt the Australian economy remains locked in a low inflation environment. Sectors that are experiencing some inflation –particularly tobacco and auto fuel then to a lesser extent, housing, health and education – are mostly being offset by the disinflationary pressure of the competitive squeeze in consumer goods. There are no signs we are about to experience a broader upswing in prices that you would normally expect to see at this late stage of an economic recovery.
Breaking it down a bit further prices came in broadly as expected with a mix of upside and downside surprises. However, given that the two decimal place print from the CPI was just 0.36%, compared to our forecast for 0.42%, then overall there was a very modest downside surprise in the survey.
Food prices were a touch softer than expected falling 0.4% vs our –0.2% forecast with a larger than expected fall in fruit &amp; vegetables (–2.7% vs –0.5%). Alcohol &amp; tobacco was stronger than expected (1.6% vs 0.6% expected) with a robust 2.8% rise in tobacco prices.
Clothing &amp; footwear came in as expected with a 1.3% seasonal re-pricing while housing costs were close to expectations rising 0.2% vs 0.1% expected. However the mix was very interesting with rents flat (0.2% expected), dwelling purchase rose 0.8% (vs. 0.5% expected) while the fall in utilities was great than expected (–1.2% vs –0.9% expected).
An area where the downside pressure appear to be significant was the smaller than expected seasonal re-pricing for household contents &amp; services (0.3% vs 0.8% expected) while health rose just 1.9% vs. the 2.6% expected this is despite a smaller than expected fall in pharmaceutical (–1.0% vs –1.6%)
Tradables rose 0.5% in the June quarter. Tradables goods rose 0.4% mainly due to automotive fuel (+6.9%qtr), audio, visual &amp; computing media and services (+3.0%qtr), garments for women (+2.2%qtr), and glassware, tableware &amp; household utensils (+3.5%qtr). The tradable services component rose 1.3%qtr due to international holiday travel and accommodation (+1.3%qtr) in response to peak period pricing for Europe and America. Tradables represent approximately 35% of the CPI.
Non-tradables rose 0.3% in the June quarter. Non-tradables goods rose 0.7%, mainly due to tobacco (+2.8%qtr), new dwelling purchases by owner occupiers (+0.8%qtr) and takeaway and fast foods (+0.8%qtr). The non-tradable services component rose 0.2%, mainly due to medical and hospital services (+3.1%qtr) and child care (+1.0%qtr). Non-tradables represent approximately 65% of the CPI.
Low inflation remains embedded in the economy.
We have seen inflationary expectations drift a little higher (we suspect rising fuel prices and until this year, rising power bills are responsible for this) but despite this the ABS CPI Survey again revealed little to suggest that the Australian economy is about to break out of its low inflation trap.
Through 2017, the big story was the rise in energy bills, particularly for electricity but also gas. However, in late 2018 there was a significant change in the wholesale electricity market as the expansion of renewable generation exceeded expectations, and power storage facilities enter commercial application, driving down wholesale prices. Some modest discounting of power bills has been reported and we are expecting this to continue through the remainder of 2018 and into 2019 which was a key reason for the recent downgrade to our inflation profile, for both headline and core, out to the end of 2019.
We will provide a full update on our forecasts in the CPI Economic Bulletin but at this stage, given that the run of soft updates that point to the Australian economy being in a low inflation trap, the risks to these forecasts still lie to the downside.
Justin Smirk is a commodity analyst for Westpac
</body></html>

j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

CPI inflation is below expectations for the seventh quarter running: Justin Smirk

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Australia’s inflation target is to keep annual consumer price inflation between 2 and 3 per cent, on average, over time, a Reserve Bank of Australian discussion paper re-affirmed last week.
The measure of consumer price inflation is the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is deemed is a suitable measure because it captures price changes for the goods and services that households buy, is independently produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, is publicly available and does not get revised.
Since the early 1990s, the rate of CPI inflation – also known as ‘headline inflation’ – has, on average, been within the target range and expectations of inflation have been consistent with the target.
The Reserve Bank also closely monitors ‘underlying’ inflation, which excludes items that have particularly low or high inflation rates (either frequently or in a given quarter).
This allows the Reserve Bank to look through any temporary factors that are affecting the CPI and to assess broader inflation pressures.
Underlying inflation has averaged around the same as headline inflation since the early 1990s. Low and stable inflation has reduced uncertainty in the economy and has underpinned economic growth.
  
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/3/16/I1.jpg" alt="">
The paper noted the inflation target provides a framework to guide a central bank’s policy decisions and to ensure accountability in its management of the economy.
The Reserve Bank adopted the inflation target in the early 1990s, as did various central banks around the world, with other central banks following suit over the subsequent decade.
In 1996, the Reserve Bank and the Government agreed on the importance of the inflation target and formalised this agreement in the Statement on the Conduct of Monetary Policy (which is typically updated following a change of government or Reserve Bank Governor).
The Reserve Bank uses an inflation target to help achieve its goals of price stability, full employment, and prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.
The paper noted this was because price stability – which means low and stable inflation – contributes to sustainable economic growth.
"Targeting inflation of 2 to 3 per cent avoids the many costs to the economy from inflation that is too high or too low," it noted.
If inflation is too high:
<ul>
<li>
Consumers’ purchasing power – the real value of money – is reduced. If prices are increasing faster than people’s nominal incomes, they will be able to afford fewer goods and services than before.
</li>
<li>
Workers may then seek larger wage increases to compensate for the effects of higher inflation on their purchasing power. In turn, higher wage growth raises firms’ costs, which may lead firms to raise prices further and/or reduce the number of workers they employ.
</li>
<li>
Spending and investment decisions may be distorted. This is because high inflation can influence when households make purchases or businesses make investment decisions. For example, if households expect higher inflation, they may make purchases sooner than originally planned to avoid paying more.
</li>
<li>
Returns on investment may be lower. Inflation influences investment decisions because a higher inflation rate will reduce the real return on the investment. Inflation can also affect the real interest paid by borrowers to lenders. For example, if inflation turns out to be higher than expected when the loan was agreed, the lender will get less than they had planned because inflation reduces the purchasing power of the interest earnings they receive.
</li>
<li>
Businesses need to update their prices more frequently and consumers spend more time comparing prices. This increases their uncertainty about the economy, which may discourage spending and investment and reduce economic growth.
</li>
<li>
A country’s international competitiveness may be lowered. If inflation is higher in one country, then the goods and services it produces will become more expensive compared with other countries (unless its currency depreciates). For more on exchange rates, see <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/education/resources/explainers/exchange-rates-and-the-australian-economy">Explainer: Exchange Rates and the Australian Economy</a>.
</li>
</ul>
If inflation is too low:
<ul>
<li>
Consumers may delay purchases if they expect prices to fall. As a result, falling prices – a situation called ‘deflation’ – can lead to lower spending. Businesses could respond by laying off workers or reducing wages which, in turn, places further downward pressure on demand and prices.
</li>
<li>
Businesses facing difficult conditions may find it hard to reduce the real wages of their employees and may resort to laying off workers instead. This is because businesses that need to decrease their real wages usually choose to allow their nominal wages to grow at a rate that is below the general rate of inflation, and if inflation is very low this is more difficult to do.
</li>
</ul>
<div class="box">
A real value is a dollar value – also known as a nominal value – less the effects of inflation.
The difference between real and nominal values can be shown using income as an example. Suppose that a worker earned $100 last year and $105 this year. The worker has received a 5 per cent increase in nominal income. Also suppose that the inflation rate is 2 per cent over the same period. If we subtract the rate of inflation from the growth in the worker’s nominal income, then the worker’s real (or inflation-adjusted) income has increased by 3 per cent. This means that the worker can buy 3 per cent more goods and services than before. In other words, their purchasing power has increased by 3 per cent. This and some other examples are shown below.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/3/16/I2.jpg" alt="">
Monetary policy aims to keep inflation between 2 and 3 per cent, on average, over time, in support of the Reserve Bank's goals of price stability and full employment. Assessing the current and expected rate of inflation against the inflation target helps the Reserve Bank in making monetary policy decisions. When inflation is above the target, this can be a sign that the economy is overheating. When inflation is below the target, this can be a sign that there is spare capacity in the economy.
The cash rate is then used to dampen or stimulate economic activity so that inflation is consistent with the target. If inflation is expected to be higher than the target for a prolonged period, the Reserve Bank would typically increase the cash rate. If inflation is expected to be lower than the target for a sustained period, the Reserve Bank would typically lower the cash rate. Changes in the cash rate take time to affect the economy.
The discussion paper noted that was why the Reserve Bank looks to what inflation is forecast to be in the future when deciding on the level of the cash rate today. 
When deciding if monetary policy should respond to inflation – both current and expected – the Reserve Bank Board distinguishes between temporary and persistent changes in inflation.
<div>If inflation is expected to be:</div>
<div><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/3/16/I3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="image-graph">Temporary changes in inflation may be caused by things like supply disruptions or seasonal sales, while persistent changes in inflation arise from things like a sustained increase in wage growth across the community. The Reserve Bank ‘looks through’ temporary changes in inflation when setting monetary policy. However, if households and businesses expect a change in inflation to be longer lasting, it can have a bigger effect on their behaviour and consequently become more important to monetary policy decisions.
Why target 2 to 3 per cent?
The 2 to 3 per cent target range is sufficiently low that inflation at this level does not significantly influence people’s economic decisions. This target range was set in the early 1990s when inflation of around 2 to 3 per cent had already been achieved. It was decided that inflation should be kept at around that rate, given the fact that the lowest average inflation rate experienced by other countries had, over many years, been a little over 2 per cent. At these levels of inflation an economy can achieve sustainable growth in output and employment.A higher inflation target could increase uncertainty and costs in the economy. A lower inflation target, on the other hand, is costly to achieve.For example:<ol>
<li>The reduction in growth in spending and investment required to keep inflation at a lower target would lower output growth and increase unemployment.</li>
<li>Having inflation much lower than 2 to 3 per cent over the medium term can limit the ability of monetary policy to stimulate demand. For example, in response to a sharp decline in aggregate demand, it may be the case that monetary policy should be set such that real interest rates become negative. Having a very low inflation target (so that actual inflation is close to zero) makes it more difficult to reduce real interest rates to such levels.</li>
<li>Businesses that need to decrease their real wages and prices in response to negative events usually choose to allow their nominal wages and prices to grow at a rate that is below the general rate of inflation; if inflation is very low, there is less room for a business’s wages or prices to grow at a rate below inflation.</li>
</ol>In addition, the inflation target must be high enough to account for measurement bias in the CPI. The CPI is upwardly biased because it is calculated with a fixed basket of goods and services which is only updated once a year; until 2017 it was updated only once every few years.A fixed basket does not take into account that households will adjust their spending patterns to buy less of items with relatively higher inflation rates and buy more of items that are becoming relatively cheaper. Consequently, the price of the basket of goods and services that they actually consume will increase by less than the price of the fixed basket. The Reserve Bank’s inflation target is flexible. This means that inflation does not need to be in the target range at all times, but on average, over time. Inflation can be affected by temporary influences, such as supply disruptions or a tax change, which monetary policy should not respond to.Furthermore, having a flexible inflation target allows the Reserve Bank to consider its broader objectives of employment and financial stability. </div>
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Understanding the RBA's inflation target: Economics 101 

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Recent history suggests downside risk to the December quarter CPI but due to forecast bias. Also we note there is no clear relationship between the Australian and NZ CPI.
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As we noted in our preview, <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2018/January/er20180126AusCPIQ4Preview.pdf" target="_blank">'Australian Q4 CPI preview'</a> there are clear downside risks to the December quarter CPI.
<h4>Sept Qtr CPI: 0.6%qtr</h4>
<h4>Dec Qtr CPI forecasts; WBC f/c: 0.8%qtr, Mkt f/c: 0.7%qtr, Range: 0.4%qtr to 1.4%qtr</h4>
 <img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/Eco_Bulletin_Charts/Slide45.JPG" alt="">
Through the last four quarters Australian forecasters have overestimated the quarterly rise in the CPI by just under 0.2ppts (average of 0.175 at three decimal places). 
It appears that Australian forecasters have been slow to react to the disinflationary pulse that has hit the economy for at least a year now. With a median forecast of 0.7%qtr for the December quarter, there is a clear risk that the CPI will undershoot expectations yet again.
<img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/Eco_Bulletin_Charts/Slide48.JPG" alt="">
Westpac has left its quarterly forecast for the CPI at 0.8%qtr as that is the best estimate we can get from the partials we have even when we allow for some further disinflationary pressure in consumer goods space. 
However, in our mind the risks are asymmetric to the downside.
<img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/Eco_Bulletin_Charts/Slide47.JPG" alt="">
But what of the New Zealand CPI? Didn’t the December print come in at 0.1%qtr against a median expectation of 0.4%qtr? Doesn’t that highlight a significant downside risk to the Australian CPI?
Our research suggests there is very little correlation in the quarterly change in the NZ CPI and the Australian CPI. Nor is there any correlation between the forecasting errors for the NZ and Australian CPIs.
<img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/Eco_Bulletin_Charts/Slide52.JPG" alt="">
So while the ongoing disinflationary pressure in the Australian economy points to a downside risk to both Westpac’s and the market's forecast for the December quarter CPI, we would caution against using the New Zealand CPI as an argument.
Justin Smirk is ‎senior economist, Westpac Group and can be contacted <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/about-westpac/westpac-group/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Downside risk to the December quarter CPI: Westpac's Justin Smirk

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GUEST OBSERVER
New weights could lower the pace of headline inflation by up to 0.4ppt (–0.3ppt core) by end 2018.
Every five years or so the ABS revises the weights in the CPI based on its detailed household expenditure survey. This brings the CPI up-to-date with the latest spending patterns associated with changing technology and individual preferences as well as correcting a substitution bias that emerges over time as spending tends to rise (fall) for items where relative prices have declined (risen).
There is also a drift in the share of the expenditure classes in the CPI towards those that are rising more rapidly and away from the expenditure classes where prices are falling. 
The ABS has estimated that historically, this substitution bias is worth around ¼ of a percentage point on the annual rate of inflation at each re-weighting. 
The ABS is set to re-weight the CPI (the 17th CPI) with the release of the 2017 December Quarter CPI. However, we concur with a recent comment from RBA that looking at the historical impact of re-weighting the CPI may not provide a reliable guide to the upcoming re-weighting. 
Using our bottom-up approach for forecasting inflation out to 2018 and applying our estimate of the revision to the weights we find that our headline inflation forecast is 0.4ppt lower by the December quarter 2018 compared to our existing forecast. We also found that the re-weighting lowers our core inflation forecast by 0.3ppt. 
A big part of this revision to our forecast is due to the lowering of the weight for tobacco in the CPI from our implicit estimate for December 2017 (before re-weighting) of 4.2% to 2.5%. At the 2011 reweighting tobacco’s weight was 2.3%.
As our revised weights are estimated from the best information we have on hand we will do another update post the release of the latest Household Expenditure Survey. However, as we can’t fully replicate the ABS’s methodology will not complete a formal review of our forecasts until the ABS releases the new weights.   
Until then what we can say is that the downside risk to the inflation outlook is somewhat greater than the historical estimate of 0.2ppt and could be as large as 0.4ppt.
Justin Smirk is ‎senior economist, Westpac Group and can be contacted <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/about-westpac/westpac-group/">here</a>.
 
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Upcoming CPI re-weighting to lower inflation: Justin Smirk

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GUEST OBSERVER
The consumer price index (CPI) for June 2017 was released earlier this week showed that over the quarter headline inflation was recorded at 0.2% which took inflation to just 1.9% over the year to June 2017. 
Although annual headline CPI was temporarily within the Reserve Bank (RBA) target range of 2% to 3% over the March 2017, it has been below target for 10 of the past 11 quarters.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/04/chart-1-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/04/chart-1-1.jpg" alt="">
Adjusting dwelling value growth for inflation provides valuable insight into the housing market’s performance.  With inflation currently at such a low level, adjusting for it is not resulting in any additional capital cities seeing value decline however, over the longer term it does highlight the significant under performance in terms of value growth for certain cities.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/04/chart-2-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/04/chart-2-1.jpg" alt="">
While in nominal terms capital city dwelling values declined in 2008 and then again in 2011-12, in real terms the declines were larger over these two periods and values also declined in 2004-05.  In nominal terms, values fell by -6.1% between March and December of 2008 and by -6.4% between September 2010 and June 2012.  In real terms, values fell by -2.6% between March 2004 and December 2005, by -8.3% between March and December 2008 and by -10.8% between September 2010 and December 2012.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/04/chart-3-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/04/chart-3-1.jpg" alt="">
Since the value declines ceased at the end of 2008, only Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra have actually recorded real growth in dwelling values.  In all other cities, real dwelling values are currently lower than they were at the end of 2008 which is now almost nine years ago.  This data really highlights the uneven nature of growth across the capital city housing markets since the end of the financial crisis. It also shows that low mortgage rates alone are not the driver of the much stronger growth in Sydney and Melbourne.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/04/chart-4-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/04/chart-4-1.jpg" alt="">
The above chart shows the change in real dwelling values across each capital city relative to their most recent market peaks.  The chart again shows that values are only above their previous peak in Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra.  Brisbane values are -9.3% lower than their peak in March 2008, Adelaide values peaked in June 2010 and are still -6.3% lower.  In Perth, the market peak was September 2007 and values are still -20.0% off their peak and in Hobart values are -11.2% lower than their peak which occurred in December 2007.  Finally, Darwin has seen the largest fall in real dwelling values, down -26.7% from its peak with the peak having occurred in September 2010.
The regularly reported nominal value data is valuable however, it is important and interesting to consider the impact of inflation on dwelling values from time-to-time.  As the data shows, outside of Sydney and Melbourne and to a lesser degree Canberra, dwelling value growth has been extremely weak for a number of years now.
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/" target="_blank">here</a>. 
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ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Since 2008, only Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra have seen ‘real’ growth in dwelling values

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GUEST OBSERVER
The Q4 CPI printed 0.5 percent compared to Westpac’s forecast for 0.6 percent.
The market median was also 0.6 percent. The annual rate is now 2.1 percent/yr compare to 1.5yr in Q4, 1.3 percent/yr in Q3 and 1.0 percent/yr in Q2. The June quarter was the lowest rate of annual inflation since June 1999.
The core measures, which are seasonally adjusted and exclude extreme moves, rose 0.4 percent on average compared to the market’s expectation of 0.5 percent rise.
Westpac’s forecast was also 0.5 percent. In the quarter, the trimmed mean gained 0.48 percent while the weighted median lifted 0.38 percent, both on the softer side of expectations highlighting just how modest the broader inflation picture is outside a few isolated sectors. The annual pace of the average of the core measures is now 1.8% from 1.5%yr in Q4 and Q3.
The six month annualised pace of core inflation came in 1.8%yr, a modest lift from the 1.6%yr pace in Q1, making this the eighth quarter in a row the six month pace has been below the bottom of the target ban. Our current forecasts do not see the six month annualised pace of core inflation returning to the band till the March quarter 2018.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/27/Screen%20Shot%202017-04-27%20at%208.25.59%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/04/27/Screen%20Shot%202017-04-27%20at%208.25.59%20AM.png" alt="">
As always there were surprises in the quarter even from the components we have some data on but this time they were quite modest. Our forecast 0.6%qtr was based on large contribution from power bills, auto fuels and the usual seasonal bump in health care, domestic travel and education being partially offset by falling fruit &amp; vegetables, seasonal discounting for clothing, footwear and household contents plus the steady decline in audio visual &amp; computing prices.
What stood out compared to our forecasts was the stronger rise in dwelling prices (1.0%qtr vs 0.5%qtr expected) but this was the only significant upside surprise. Food prices overall fell –0.2% (0.0% expected) while household contents &amp; services were down 1.0% (1.0% expected), health costs rose just 2.0% (2.6% expected), car prices continue to fall (–0.5% vs 0.5% expected) and a surprising 1.9% fall in holiday travel (+0.9% expected) due to an unexpected fall in domestic travel costs.
The March quarter continues the run of softer inflation prints as the competitive margin squeeze appears to remain in place. Dwelling costs have lifted a bit (we don’t know if that is due to the inclusion of attached dwellings prices) and rising power bills are coming through but rent inflation remains very modest. So even with inflationary expectations drifting back towards the long-run average (we suspect fuel and power bills are responsible for this) there is little in this release to suggest that inflation is gathering any momentum. 
Our preliminary estimate for the core measures for Q2 2017 is 0.5%qtr/1.7%yr holding inflation below the bottom of the RBA’s target band. 
Fuel prices and rising power bills does not change the fact competitive pressures continue to prevent inflation from accelerating.
Rising fuel prices were there, as was the usual seasonal bump in education and health as well as the jump in power bills. And we did see a bit of a lift in dwelling prices (which now includes attached dwellings) associated with strong jumps in Sydney and Brisbane which added to the expected lift in electricity prices. However, as we noted in our preview, there was clear risk that the recent appreciation in the AUD, along with intense competition in the retail space, would limit the upside risks and, in fact, could present some downside risks to our forecasts.
In the end this came through with falling prices for clothing &amp; footwear household contents &amp; services, car prices, audio visual &amp; computing &amp; international travel.
ABS estimates small negative seasonality in the March quarter.
The ABS analysis points to some seasonality in the March quarter CPI with the seasonally adjusted estimate rising 0.55% a percentage point up on the headline 0.45% estimate.
After trimming the core measures rose 0.4 percent/qtr.
The core measures, which are seasonally adjusted and exclude extreme moves, rose 0.4% on average compared to the market’s expectation for 0.5% rise. Westpac’s forecast was also 0.5%. In the quarter, the trimmed mean gained 0.48% while the weighted median lifted 0.38% highlighting just how modest the broader inflation picture is outside a few isolated sectors. The annual pace of the average of the core measures is now 1.8% from 1.5%yr in Q4 and Q3.
The six month annualised pace of core inflation came in 1.8%yr, a modest lift from the 1.6%yr pace in Q1, making this the eighth quarter in a row the six month pace has been below the bottom of the target ban. Our current forecasts do not see the six month annualised pace of core inflation returning to the band till the March quarter 2018.
For a broader core inflation measure, more in line with some international measures, all groups excluding food &amp; energy rose 0.3%qtr/1.5%yr.
Competition is holding back traded goods inflation as the AUD appreciation lowers import prices.
As always there were surprises in the quarter even from the components we have some data on but this time they were quite modest. Our forecast 0.6%qtr was based on large contribution from power bills, auto fuels and the usual seasonal bump in health care, domestic travel and education being partially offset by falling fruit &amp; vegetables, seasonal discounting for clothing, footwear and household contents plus the steady decline in audio visual &amp; computing prices.
In the quarter, the ABS reported a 0.2% decline in food prices with falling fruit &amp; vegetables prices (–1.9% we expected –2.1%) adding to a broader than expected weakness. The rise in auto fuel was much as we expected (5.7%) as were the gains in tobacco &amp; alcohol (1.1%). However, traded goods prices continue to fall overall as clothing &amp; footwear fell 1.5% (our forecast was –1.9%), household contents fell 1.0% (forecast was –0.6%), car prices fell 0.3% (forecast was –0.5%) while the seasonal lift in domestic holiday travel did not happen. In fact domestic holiday cost fell (–0.3% vs 4.0% forecast) compared to the rise that the BITRE data was suggesting.
All up traded prices fell 0.2% in Q1 but due to base effects the annual pace lifted to 1.3%yr from 0.1%yr. We would argue that this soft pace of traded price inflation highlights just how competitive the retail space has become and how retailers have very little ability to pass on any upstream price pressures.
Non-traded prices lifted less than 1.0% in the quarter.
Housing is a key factor underpinning the momentum in core and non-traded inflation. The 0.8% rise in Q1 was much as expected (0.7% forecast) but the composition was interesting. Dwelling purchases gained 1.0% with outsized gains in Sydney and Brisbane (1.3% and 1.9% respectively) adding to the steady 1.0% gain in Melbourne. There has been something of a turnaround in Perth with a 0.2% rise in Q4 but prices fell 0.8% in Q1. We also have to note that we don’t know what impact the inclusion of attached dwelling prices have had on this series. Rents continue to move very gradually higher with a 0.1% gain in the quarter.
Rising energy bills are starting to appear in the CPI with a 2.2% rise in utilities bills in Q1; we had forecast a 2.4% rise. We expect that power bills inflation with gather some momentum through 2017 and there is a clear risk this could extend into 2018.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/27/Screen%20Shot%202017-04-27%20at%208.27.08%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/04/27/Screen%20Shot%202017-04-27%20at%208.27.08%20AM.png" alt="">
Holding back the pace of non-traded price gains was a more modest 3.1% rise in education (3.8% was expected) and a 2.0% gain in health (2.6% expected). The Federal Government has been targeting rising health costs and the Q1 lift in pharmaceutical in particular was smaller than it has been in recent years (4.9% vs 5.7% expected).
Non-traded prices rose 0.9% lifting the annual pace to 2.6%yr from 2.1%yr. Rising housing costs are key to this and without the constraints on education and health non-traded inflation would be rising at a more rapid pace placing some upwards pressure on core inflation. 
Looking forward housing remains key as other price pressures remain subdued and the AUD pass through is restrained.
The March quarter was another soft update on inflation. Competitive margin squeeze remains in some consumer sectors while the gains for health and education have been more modest than expect. Dwelling costs have gathered momentum adding to the pressure from power bills but rents inflation is holding a 22yr low. So despite the recent rise in inflationary expectations towards the long run average, the March CPI update suggests that inflation remains well contained.
Our preliminary estimate for the core measures for Q2 2017 is 0.5%qtr/1.7%yr holding inflation below the bottom of the RBA’s target band. Our projections do not see core inflation return to the band until September quarter 2018 while headline inflation is set to ease back below the band by early 2018. 
 
Justin Smirk is ‎senior economist, Westpac Group and can be contacted <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/about-westpac/westpac-group/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Rent inflation is holding a 22yr low: Justin Smirk

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According to the ABS, consumer inflation in Australia has risen by 63% since 1998, according to Gareth Aird, an economist for CBA.
Over that same period, national dwelling prices have lifted by ~300% (chart 1).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/20/Chart%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/20/Chart%201.jpg" alt="">
Looking at the more recent past, dwelling prices have lifted by 44% since QI 2013 while headline inflation has only risen by 8% (chart 2).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/20/Chart%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/20/Chart%202.jpg" alt="">
For all intents and purposes, dwelling prices are excluded from the CPI.
In a technical sense, “new dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers” is included.
But this is simply the cost of new homes excluding land (i.e. it is basically a residential construction cost index).
In reality it’s not a representative measure of dwelling prices because it doesn’t take into account the primary driver of changes in the price of a dwelling – which is of course the price of land.
Growth in the new homes ex-land component of the CPI bears no resemblance to changes in dwelling prices (chart 3).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/20/Chart%203.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/20/Chart%203.jpg" alt="">
And yet this component of the CPI is worth a non-trivial 8.7% of the total basket.
According to the ABS, land prices are excluded from the CPI because they don’t fit the definition of a consumption good.
The ABS states that, “the CPI only includes goods and services that are purchased by households for consumption.
A consumption good or service is one from which households directly derive utility or satisfaction.
Any business–related purchases by households are excluded from the basket, as are those items that have a significant savings or investment component, such as land and capital goods.”
Here one could reasonably argue that purchasing a home to live in has aspects of both investment and consumption as utility and satisfaction are derived from home ownership.
We continue: the ABS also states that, “the principal purpose of the CPI has been to measure inflation faced by households to support the operation of macroeconomic policy decision making.”
Our emphasis is on “inflation faced by households” because clearly based on the exclusion of land prices in the CPI the ABS does not consider dwelling price rises to be “inflation faced by households”.
That is true for households who own a home.
But for aspiring home owners dwelling prices are part of the inflation that they face.
Their exclusion from the CPI therefore makes it an inaccurate measure of the type of living costs that they face.
The RBA supports the exclusion of land prices in the CPI and according to the central bank, “the purchase of existing housing represents a transfer within the household sector (which means that there is zero net expenditure by the household sector in these transactions)”.
Very true. But then rent is also effectively a transfer within the household sector from tenant to landlord and rent is included in the CPI.
Land is not the only component of the cost of home ownership that is excluded from the CPI.
Mortgage interest payments are also not in the consumer basket (they were included prior to 1998).
And there is no estimate of imputed rent (i.e. owner-occupiers are effectively renting properties from themselves).
This simply leaves “rent” as being the main component of the CPI that picks up changes in the cost of having a roof over one’s head, notwithstanding the ‘residential construction cost index’ component.
This would be fine if households were completely indifferent between renting and purchasing a home (i.e. if they were perfect substitutes).
But this is simply not the case.
Here we want to point out that we are not arguing for the inclusion of dwelling prices in the CPI.
Rather, we are questioning the basis for their exclusion given nothing in the CPI as it currently stands fairly picks up changes in the cost of purchasing a dwelling to live in.
For illustrative purposes, it’s very easy to construct a CPI that includes changes in dwelling prices.
Here we construct a modified CPI (called CPIH) whereby dwelling prices account for 10% of the basket – roughly equivalent in size to the “new dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers” component of the CPI.
We use the ABS residential price index as the measure of changes in dwelling prices to construct our new CPIH. The results are telling, but unsurprising.
The inclusion of dwelling prices in CPIH, even just accounting for 10% of the basket, pushes up the annual change significantly since 1998.
The annual change in CPIH is, on average, 55bps higher than the annual change in CPI (chart 4).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/20/Chart%204.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/20/Chart%204.jpg" alt="">
The point of this exercise is to highlight how the exclusion of dwelling prices from the CPI has masked the uplift in the cost of living for households who don’t own a dwelling but aspire to purchase one.
For them, the cost of living has risen by more than is implied by the CPI. This is, to an extent, very much a question of generational equity.
Real wages growth has generally been positive over the past five years despite falling nominal wages growth as CPI inflation has been trending down (chart 5).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/20/Chart%205.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/20/Chart%205.jpg" alt="">
But if we deflate nominal wages growth by a measure of inflation that includes dwelling prices (i.e. CPIH) the picture looks quite different (chart 6).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/20/Chart%206.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/20/Chart%206.jpg" alt="">
Deflating wages growth by CPIH more accurately captures real wage changes for those who aspire to own a home.
These individuals (or households) are generally below 35.
To put it another way, younger people, who are less likely to own a dwelling, have faced a greater deterioration in real wages than is implied by deflating nominal wages by the CPI.
This is because the single biggest purchase they are yet to make is not included in the CPI. And it has, of course, been rising much, much quicker than the CPI itself.
There is a monetary policy, inflation and dwelling price nexus.
The RBA’s mandate is to maintain price stability, full employment and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.
To achieve this, the Bank has an ‘inflation target’ and seeks to keep consumer price inflation in the economy, as measured by the CPI, in the 2–3% range on average, over the medium term.
Interest rates have needed to be on a long-run downward trend for the RBA to meet its inflation target as the neutral rate has fallen (charts 7 and 8).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/20/Chart%207.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/20/Chart%207.jpg" alt="">
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/20/Chart%208.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/20/Chart%208.jpg" alt="">
Throughout that period, Australia’s stock of debt has risen as a share of income, mainly driven by the household sector (chart 9).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/20/Chart%209.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/20/Chart%209.jpg" alt="">
Most of that debt has been going into bricks and mortar and dwelling prices have therefore risen faster than income.
But as discussed above, none of this has been captured in the CPI.
Back in 1997, the RBA argued against the inclusion of land in the CPI in its submission to the 13th Series CPI review.
And they also argued against including a mortgage interest component in the CPI because, “the interest charges as measured tend to distort the signal offered by the CPI of inflationary trends, by incorporating the policy responses to those trends.”
In other words, if the RBA cut (increased) rates then interest charges would fall (rise) thereby having the opposite intended impact by pushing down (up) on CPI inflation.
But including dwelling prices in the CPI would assist the RBA in hitting its inflation target.
Lowering (raising) interest rates has an immediate positive (negative) impact on the price of the very thing not included in the CPI – dwelling prices.
The hangover in Australia from pushing interest rates lower over an extended period of time to hit an inflation target has been a huge accumulation of debt and very high dwelling prices.
A raft of other policy decisions have also played their part.
The interest rate lever has helped to smooth out the business cycle.
But as we sit close to the lower bound in rates, and with debt a share of income at a record high, it seems futile to chase inflation any lower via more monetary policy stimulus unless the housing market falters and the appetite for additional debt cools.
A suite of policy reforms could help here.
When Governor Lowe appeared before the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics in late February he stated that, “the main effect (of another rate cut) would be more borrowing for housing, pushing up housing prices.” Touché!
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What if dwelling prices were included in the CPI?: Gareth Aird

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GUEST OBSERVER
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released consumer price index (CPI) data for the September 2016 quarter last month. 
According to the data, headline inflation increased by 0.7 percent over the quarter to be 1.3 percent higher over the year. 
Meanwhile, underlying inflation was recorded at 0.3 percent over the quarter and 1.5 percent higher over the past 12 months. Both headline and underlying inflation have increased at a rate below the RBAs target range of 2 percent to 3 percent. 
This would usually see the RBA cut interest rates to try and lift inflation however, the previous cuts in May and August, which had the same intent, have not successfully lifted inflation. 
What those cuts did manage to do was re-energise growth in housing, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne. 
For this reason there is some speculation as to whether the RBA will risk cutting interest rates again given concerns that a lower cash rate will fail to push the dollar lower and lift inflation but add further heat to an already strong housing market.
With the CPI data released, we can pair it with the CoreLogic home value index data to September 2016, in order to obtain an understanding of real growth in values. 
Although headline value growth is lower than it was a year ago, so too is headline inflation which mean that real value growth, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne remains strong.
<a href="/images/2016/10/31/CoreLogic%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/31/CoreLogic%201.jpg" alt="">
The above chart highlights the real and nominal changes in home values across each capital city over the 12 months to September 2016.  In both real and nominal terms values have fallen over the past year in both Perth and Darwin while they have increased across each of the remaining capital cities. 
There’s also been evidence that along with Sydney and Melbourne, where growth has been strong for almost four years now, value growth has also picked up in other cities such as Adelaide, Hobart and Canberra.
<a href="/images/2016/10/31/CoreLogic%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/31/CoreLogic%202.jpg" alt="">
If you look at the compound annual change in real home values over the past five, ten and 15 years, the 15 year time-frame in most capital city provides the strongest performance. 
The clear exception is in Sydney where the last five years have resulted in the strongest annual returns.  In contrast, across all other capital cities except for Perth and Hobart the past five years have recorded the weakest annual growth across each of the three time-frame. 
This result really highlights the strength of the Sydney market over the past five years and its relative weakness over the 10 years preceding.
<a href="/images/2016/10/31/CoreLogic%203.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/31/CoreLogic%203.jpg" alt="">
Since the end of 2008 (ie post GFC), growth in home values has significantly skewed towards the Sydney and Melbourne housing markets. 
As highlighted in the above chart, when adjusted for inflation values are lower that they were at the end of 2008 in Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth, Hobart and Darwin. 
Sydney and Melbourne have also seen a substantially greater increase in values relative to Canberra which was the only other capital city to have seen an increase in real home values.
<a href="/images/2016/10/31/CoreLogic%204.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/31/CoreLogic%204.jpg" alt="">
Sydney and Melbourne are the only two capital cities in which real home values are now back above their previous peaks. 
After peaking all the way back in the March 2004 quarter, real home values in Sydney are now 35.3 percent higher in Sydney and in Melbourne they are 17.2 percent higher than their September 2010 peak. 
All other capital cities are still recording real home values below their previous peaks.  The magnitude of these declines are recorded at: -10.2% in Brisbane, -5.3 percent in Adelaide, -20.2 percent in Perth, -15.6 percent in Hobart, -23.8 percent in Darwin and -1.0 percent in Canberra. 
In some of these cities, values peaked many years ago, as far back as 2007 in Perth and Hobart and 2008 in Brisbane.
Although interest rates are low and in real terms homes have been becoming more affordable outside of Sydney and Melbourne it still hasn’t proved to be enough to lure substantial demand and subsequent growth across the other capital cities. 
What this highlights is the importance of employment, what sets Sydney and Melbourne apart, outside of more expensive housing prices, is the fact that they both have strong economies which are creating jobs. 
Housing affordability alone is no longer enough to attract an increasing level of housing demand, you need a strong economy and the jobs that go along with those strong economic conditions.
Perth and Darwin in particular are well into a fairly substantial value decline phase which is appears set to continue.  Since their respective market peaks in September 2007 and September 2010, real home values are now -20.2 percent and -23.8 percent lower respectively.
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.
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Home values now more than 20 percent down in Perth and Darwin

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GUEST OBSERVER
Australian consumer price data for Q3 2016 indicates that while inflation remains below the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target band, there are signs of stronger price growth, indicating we may be near the inflation low for this cycle. This provides mixed signals for Australian commercial property.  For the retail sector, the data indicate both tradeable and non-tradeable goods inflation appears to have stabilised, suggesting improved pricing may support retail sales growth. However, this is likely to be limited by soft wages growth and ongoing competition in the supermarket and apparel sectors. Stronger inflation may also put upward pressure on bond yields, limiting demand for Australian commercial real estate and A-REITs. However, thecommercial real estate bond yield spread remains very large andAustralian commercial real estate continues to look attractive compared to many overseas markets, suggesting investment demand should remain solid.
<a href="/images/2016/10/27/unnamed.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/27/unnamed.jpg" alt="">
 
What happened?
Consumer price data for Q3 2016 was released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). Theheadline inflation data show annual growth of 1.3%, up from 1.0% in June and price growth over the quarter rose to 0.7% from 0.4% in June. The growth was stronger than expected with the consensus estimates at 0.5% quarter on quarter (QoQ) and 1.1% year on year (YoY)
The headline figure includes some items with volatile pricing, so the RBA tends to keep a closer eye on measures of ‘core’ inflation such as the Trimmed Mean and Weighted Median. These rose by an average of 1.5% over the year. At 1.5%, the figure remains below the RBA’s target range of 2%-3%, the low price pressure being a factor in the RBA’s decision to cut the cash rate to 1.5% in August. The market, as indicated by ASX 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures, was yesterday pricing in the chance of another rate cut at next Tuesday’s RBA meeting at just 16%. The low core inflation data may increase the odds of another rate cut, however, emerging signs of price growth in some areas may temper this.
Unlike previous quarters in 2016, price growth across the various categories was generally positive (Figure 1). 
<a href="/images/2016/10/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-27%20at%208.28.08%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-27%20at%208.28.08%20AM.png" alt="">
While most price growth continues to appear in non-discretionary categories such as health andeducation there was also growth in a number of ‘retail’ categories including appliances, furnishings andapparel. The strongest price growth was in the alcohol and tobacco category and was largely due to tobacco tax increases. Food price growth picked up on a surge in fruit and vegetable prices, up 11.6% QoQ. Falling utility prices had been dampening overall CPI increases, however in Q3 utility costs had their strongest increase since the end of carbon pricing with electricity costs rising 5.4% QoQ (Figure 2).
<a href="/images/2016/10/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-27%20at%208.29.17%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-27%20at%208.29.17%20AM.png" alt="">
Tradeable and non-tradeable goods price growth appears to have stabilised after several quarters of slowing growth (Figure 3).
<a href="/images/2016/10/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-27%20at%208.30.11%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-27%20at%208.30.11%20AM.png" alt="">
Tradeable goods price growth was 0.7% over the year. Still low, though it had averaged zero growth over the previous six quarters. Tradeable goods inflation is usually correlated with changes in the Australian dollar (AUD), however, this relationship has broken down recently (Figure 4). 
<a href="/images/2016/10/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-27%20at%208.31.08%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-27%20at%208.31.08%20AM.png" alt="">
The break appears correlated to the relatively soft petrol prices, which now appear to be stabilising (Figure 5). 
<a href="/images/2016/10/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-27%20at%208.32.49%20AM.png" target="_blank"> Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-27%20at%208.32.49%20AM.png" alt="">
Weak apparel price growth also contributed to low tradeable goods inflation. While apparel price pressure is still soft, the 1.2% YoY growth recorded this quarter is the strongest since March 2012. The soft growth is likely due to increased price competition from new international retailers such as H&amp;M, UNIQLO and Zara as well as increased use of mobile technology for price comparison.
What does it mean?
Retail
Areas of increased competition such as apparel and supermarkets have contributed to weaker retail price growth though there are signs prices are stabilising. Sectors with stronger price growth, such as household goods, are continuing to benefit from the strong east coast housing market and small business tax deductions. This suggests the downward pressure on moving annual turnover growth will begin to dissipate and sales growth improve (Figure 6).  
<a href="/images/2016/10/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-27%20at%208.33.45%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-27%20at%208.33.45%20AM.png" alt="">
That said, the upside is likely to be limited by factors such as weak income growth. Employment data, released last week, show a spike in part-time employment.  This is part of a continuing trend associated with the end of the mining boom and is correlated with relatively weak wages growth (Figure 7).
<a href="/images/2016/10/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-27%20at%208.34.42%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-27%20at%208.34.42%20AM.png" alt="">
Investment demand
A low inflation, soft economic growth environment has resulted in very low interest rates across the globe. This led to a global hunt for yield and relatively strong demand for Australian commercial property. Therelatively wide property income – bond yield spread has supported the demand for Australian commercialproperty. Whilst today’s data suggest we may be near the low point for inflation in this cycle and put upward pressure on bond yields, they would need to increase significantly before Australian commercial real estate begins to look relatively expensive (Figure 8).
<a href="/images/2016/10/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-27%20at%208.35.42%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-27%20at%208.35.42%20AM.png" alt="">
In addition, Australian commercial real estate appears relatively attractive compared to many overseas markets, which should also support ongoing demand from international investors. 
A-REIT performance has been linked to changes in bond yields. Figure 9 indicates the increase in theS&amp;P/ASX 200 A-REIT index has been correlated with the fall in bond yields since 2011. If bond yields continue to increase from their recent lows, this is likely to limit A-REIT stock price growth.
<a href="/images/2016/10/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-27%20at%208.36.43%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-27%20at%208.36.43%20AM.png" alt="">
John Sears is national director, research, Cushman and Wakefield and can be contacted <a href="https://www.cushmanwakefield.com.au/en-gb/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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CPI and the impact on commercial property: John Sears

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GUEST OBSERVER
September quarter inflation was slightly higher than expected at 0.7 percent quarter on quarter or 1.3 percent year on year (up from 1 percent yoy).
However, this was driven by sharp price rises for only a handful of items with fruit and vegetables up 11.6 percent/qoq, electricity prices up 5.4 percent/qoq, tobacco prices up 2.3 percent/qoq and property rates and charges up 4 percent/qoq.
Underlying inflation was actually lower than expected at 0.3 percent/qoq or 1.5 percent/yoy. Deflationary pressures remain significant across a range of areas with clothing prices up only 1.2 percent/yoy, rents up just 0.7 percent/yoy, household appliances up only 1.3 percent/yoy, motor vehicle prices down 1.6 percent/yoy and ongoing weakness in prices for recreation and culture (up 0.6 percent/yoy). 
Both tradeable and non-tradable inflation remain weak at 0.7 percent/yoy and 1.7 percent/yoy respectively.
<a href="/images/2016/10/27/image004.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge </a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/27/image004.png" alt="">
Source: ABS, AMP Capital
 
Implications for the RBA 
While it’s a close call, the September quarter inflation result was probably not low enough overall to trigger another rate cut from the RBA at next week’s Board meeting. Both headline and underlying inflation are in line with the RBA’s inflation forecasts and the rise in headline inflation may reduce the short term downside threat to inflation expectations and at the same time economic growth in Australia looks reasonable with the worst of the mining investment slump behind us and a rise in commodity prices set to boost growth in national income. As such, the RBA can afford to be patient in waiting for inflation to head back to target and thereby avoid the risk of adding to financial instability (read a further acceleration in Sydney and Melbourne home price gains) with another rate cut for now.
However, inflation is still very low, it’s not clear that it has bottomed yet and the $A remains uncomfortably high so it’s premature to close the door on another rate cut.
Overall, we think that the RBA will leave rates on hold when it meets again next week, but that another cut (more likely next year) cannot be ruled out.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://plus.google.com/110172465327488162875?rel=author" target="_blank">SHANE OLIVER</a> is head of investment strategy and economics and chief economist at <a href="https://www.ampcapital.com.au/home" target="_blank">AMP Capital</a> and is responsible for AMP Capital's diversified investment funds.
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