<p data-end="211" data-start="96">National developer Time &amp; Place appears to have settled on a design for its long-anticipated Potts Point project.</p>

<p data-end="430" data-start="213">After several years of back and forth with local council and the NSW Government, the developer, which has spent close to a decade targeting the former The Chimes site on Macleay Street, has now progressed its plans.</p>

<p data-end="645" data-start="432">Following a concept design submission last year by SJB, Time &amp; Place has lodged a full State Significant Development Application with the NSW Government, this time for a scheme designed by Kerry Hill Architects.</p>

<p data-end="645" data-start="432"><img alt="Time &amp; Place" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="504d2a27-d65f-4227-8189-1e35e3376e62" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-04-20%20at%209.38.24%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=_XqFKATYHF30KnVByPxhaI9UBzmkmfn7" /></p>

<p data-end="801" data-start="647">The 16-storey proposal includes 44 apartments, 21 of which will be build-to-sell. These will comprise 19 three-bedroom apartments and two four-bedroom penthouses.</p>

<p data-end="984" data-start="803">More than 50 per cent of the development will be dedicated to affordable housing, with 23 one- and two-bedroom apartments delivered in line with the NSW Government’s Housing SEPP.</p>

<p data-end="1068" data-start="986">Kerry Hill Architects said the proposal is driven by a strong response to place.</p>

<p data-end="1224" data-start="1070">“Our proposal for a new residential building for Potts Point in Sydney is driven by a deep consideration of place,” the practice said in its submission.</p>

<p data-end="1630" data-start="1226">“This operates on multiple levels, including a landscape approach that reinstates endemic flora of the Sydney peninsula and provides a ground-floor garden for residents, reconnecting the site to its pre-European history. A brick podium further strengthens this relationship to context, integrating planting and fine bronze detailing that references the predominant material language of Macleay Street.”</p>

<p data-end="1898" data-start="1632">The three-level podium will be topped by a communal resident space, featuring a covered pool designed to receive direct afternoon sun in winter, a neighbouring reflection pool, dining and event areas oriented to maximise sunset views, and an outdoor exercise zone.</p>

<p data-end="1898" data-start="1632"><img alt="Time &amp; Place" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="8d3eedc1-babb-44a3-bd96-d8a42f3adf1f" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-04-20%20at%209.37.48%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=Ii7.4dvqNatu5GQi6bhqNjAswrMB998." /></p>

<p data-end="2132" data-start="1900">The design also incorporates highly crafted shopfronts and a clearly defined residential entry to activate the street. Juliette balconies to the podium residences will provide passive surveillance and a strong sense of habitation.</p>

<p data-end="2225" data-start="2134">Above, the larger apartments are housed within a light-coloured masonry and bronze tower.</p>

<p data-end="2469" data-start="2227">“The tower steps back in a series of gently curved volumes that reference the rich Art Deco context of Macleay Street,” the architects said. “Carefully calibrated vertical fins frame the views while providing privacy and a sense of refuge.”</p>

<p><img alt="Time &amp; Place" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="6fab60f4-3140-4469-b47a-48c781e0a30b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-04-20%20at%209.28.44%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=e5XxrM3kzdASdKlcIACHAHbOSZhSKC9O" /></p>

<p>Time &amp; Place has been one of the most active developers nationally in the last 12 to 24 months. Late last year they completed&nbsp;The Queensbridge in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/southbank-vic-3006">Southbank</a>, a mixed-use tower with 353 apartments and a hotel. They are currently selling Park Modern, 246 apartments near the famous Botanic Gardens in South Melbourne.</p>

<p data-end="987" data-start="610">The developer has approval for The Burke, a mixed-use project in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/glen-iris-vic-3146">Glen Iris</a>&nbsp;being delivered in partnership with Woolworths. The 60 apartments, positioned above a new Woolworths supermarket, are expected to launch in the coming months. Time &amp; Place is also progressing plans for the redevelopment of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/northcote-vic-3070">Northcote</a>&nbsp;Plaza, and have recently submitted plans for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/vic/time-place-unveils-plans-22-storey-south-melbourne-tower">22-storey tower</a>, another in South Melbourne.</p>

<p data-end="1377" data-start="989">In&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/sydney-nsw">Sydney</a>, the developer has two projects in Manly: Two Tides, which is currently under construction, and an ultra high-end building on&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/shoreline-manly-beach-89-90-north-steyne-manly">North Steyne</a>, fronting the beach. It is also continuing to work through the redevelopment of The Chimes building on Macleay Street in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/potts-point-nsw-2011">Potts Point</a>, as well as Marlborough House, the redevelopment of the original David Jones warehouse building in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/surry-hills-nsw-2010">Surry Hills</a>.</p>


Joel Robinson

First look: Time & Place settles on design for The Chimes, Potts Point redevelopment

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/develotek">Develotek</a> is joining the likes of TOGA, Deicorp, and One Global Capital, betting on a boom in Five Dock ahead of the 2032 mooted opening of the Five Dock Metro Station.</p>

<p>Develotek, which is currently developing Bianca on the Drummoyne waterfront and has plans approved for a tower in Chatswood, has filed a State Significant Development Application for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/79-81-queens-road-five-dock-nsw-2046">two-building project in the evolving Kings Bay precinct</a>.</p>

<p>The buildings, one more boutique just five storeys and the other 26 storeys, will rise from an 3,158 sqm site across&nbsp;79–81 Queens Road and 2–8 Spencer Street, will home 134 one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments, above ground-floor retail and five basement levels of parking.</p>

<p>A key component of the proposal is the inclusion of 15 per cent of residential floor space as in-fill affordable housing, unlocking additional height and density under the Housing SEPP.</p>

<p><img alt="First Look: Develotek lodges State Significant shop top housing project in Five Dock precinct" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3ee31bf7-75ba-4bc5-b190-49885193219f" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/podium_2.png?VersionId=730UbrduuwK3C1sO28RHjiLPUPqXqjkh" /></p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/plus-studio">Plus Studio</a>, the scheme adopts a podium-and-tower configuration, with a five-storey street wall along Queens Road transitioning to a 26-storey tower set deeper into the site. The ground plane prioritises activation and permeability, with retail frontages and a new through-site link connecting Queens Road to Spencer Street.</p>

<p>At the upper levels, the tower façade has been conceived using a modular system to support prefabrication and reduce construction waste, while improving build efficiency. The splayed form draws on the geometry of surrounding industrial rooftops, reinterpreting the area’s heritage in a contemporary expression while also helping to reduce solar heat gain to east and west-facing apartments.</p>

<p>“This project aspires to transform a former industrial site into a connected, resilient and people-focused urban community, grounded in Country, shaped by history, and designed to enrich everyday life within the evolving Kings Bay Precinct,” said John Walsh, Principal at Plus Studio.</p>

<p>The proposal reflects the broader transformation of the Kings Bay Precinct under the Parramatta Road Corridor Urban Transformation Strategy, marking a shift from its industrial past to a higher-density, mixed-use urban neighbourhood.</p>

<p><img alt="First Look: Develotek lodges State Significant shop top housing project in Five Dock precinct" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="abde734c-1e31-4a97-a1d2-fa9bcf31c380" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/building%20podium.png?VersionId=fNUupP6u146yEytQT31kKVRxwtACgPpP" /></p>

<p>Develotek is emerging as an active participant in the state’s affordable housing-led uplift pathway. The developer recently secured approval for a 34-storey mixed-use tower in Chatswood, where it similarly leveraged the in-fill affordable housing provisions to increase scale and deliver a 101-unit scheme with dedicated affordable apartments.</p>

<p>Their entry into Five Dock places them alongside a growing list of developers targeting the suburb ahead of its anticipated transport uplift, with Sydney Metro set to extend into the area. Major players including TOGA, Deicorp, and One Global Capital are all progressing large-scale precinct-style developments nearby, collectively reshaping the low-rise industrial fabric into a higher-density mixed-use corridor.</p>

<p>The Five Dock site sits within the Kings Bay Precinct, a key renewal area under the Parramatta Road Corridor Urban Transformation Strategy, where planning controls support significant uplift tied to affordable housing delivery. The consolidated 3,158 sqm site is currently occupied by low-rise industrial uses, including warehouses and vehicle workshops, earmarked for transition.</p>


First Look: Develotek joins in Five Dock apartment boom

<p data-end="132" data-start="47">Ascot’s Racecourse Road continues to be a hive of activity for Brisbane developers.</p>

<p data-end="359" data-start="134">Following Fortis and GRAYA, which are both preparing new projects along the key strip connecting Kingsford Smith Drive and Eagle Farm Racecourse, local developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/skyhold">Skyhold</a> is the latest to lodge plans for its own development.</p>

<p data-end="510" data-start="361">The group is proposing One One Two Residences, a boutique project comprising just seven apartments, named after its address at 112 Racecourse Road.</p>

<p>The proposal outlines a five-storey building on an 810 sqm site. The built form slightly exceeds the four-storey expectation under the neighbourhood plan, aligning instead with the emerging character of the strip. As the planning report notes, “the locality is characterised by a transition toward medium-rise residential development, with a number of recent developments… above the stipulated height limits.”</p>

<p><img alt="First Look: Skyhold lodges plans for boutique Ascot apartments as Racecourse Road revival gathers pace" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="ec577631-8c51-4163-960e-e7b3a77d655b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Ascot.png?VersionId=iAzQ46D4Uu1UqiS0mVnlcy9jeFKBpJIj" /></p>

<p>Designed by 111 with landscape architecture by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/paul-bangay-garden-design">Paul Bangay Studio</a>, the scheme adopts a layered architectural approach with strong articulation and a subtropical response. Deep balconies, integrated planters, and a mix of masonry and textured finishes define the façade, while upper-level setbacks reduce perceived bulk. The architectural statement describes “a series of horizontally expressed layers, defined by deep balconies and a consistent robust material palette,” aimed at delivering a refined streetscape presence.</p>

<p>Apartments are configured as large-format residences, including multiple three-bedroom layouts and a full-floor penthouse, supported by ground-level parking. A rooftop terrace will provide communal amenities including a pool and landscaped recreation areas. The design prioritises privacy, natural ventilation, and greenery, with planting integrated across all levels to soften the building form and contribute to the public realm.</p>

<p><img alt="First Look: Skyhold lodges plans for boutique Ascot apartments as Racecourse Road revival gathers pace" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="1e1219bd-b45a-4d7f-bbc7-7207d7b2fc94" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Ascot%20entry.png?VersionId=JIoUOLMgQ5xWpEF0etEI3ffIoIVjD7gO" /></p>

<p>The proposal sits within the Racecourse Road precinct, a key mixed-use spine in Ascot that continues to attract renewed development interest.</p>

<p>Later this year national developer Fortis will launch its own boutique development, which, pending council approvals, will be 16 apartments designed by Koichi Takada Architects, just down the street.</p>

<p>“Racecourse Road is going through a massive revitalisation and we’re proud to be a part of that transformation,” said Fortis's QLD General Manager, Dan Boman.</p>

<p>Nearby, GRAYA is advancing its larger-scale The Gallery, a mixed-use shop-top housing project designed to act as a “catalytic project for Racecourse Road.”</p>


First Look: Racecourse Road, Hamilton revitalization to continue as Skyhold joins the party

<p>Twenty-five years after launching one of Australia’s most visionary and successful masterplanned beach communities - Casuarina on the Northern NSW Tweed Coast - developer Consolidated Properties Group has unveiled plans for an $800 million sister project located 10 kilometres south, at Cudgera Creek near the coastal town of Pottsville.</p>

<p>CPG has taken the wraps off Caldera, a 78-hectare masterplanned village that builds on the legacy of Casuarina and aims to help address Northern NSW’s coastal housing shortage via the delivery of 550 homes built in a sustainable manner and addressing affordability and housing diversity, while also focusing on architectural and ecological merit.</p>

<p>Caldera is being brought to life by the same creative team that delivered Casuarina, led by Consolidated Properties CEO and chairman Don O’Rorke, Hutchinson Builders chairman Scott Hutchinson and renowned urban designer Brian Toyota, of architectural practice Bureau Proberts.</p>

<p>CPG has lodged a rezoning application with Tweed Shire Council for the Caldera site, which has been designated since 1991 as the Dunloe Park Urban Release Area, the final land release area within the Pottsville locality and one of only four remaining growth areas along the entire Tweed coastal strip. Preliminary plans for Caldera feature a 13-hectare retail and commercial precinct at the core of the village, surrounded by meticulously planned residential areas comprising around 550 homesites.</p>

<p>The retail hub will be anchored by a Coles Supermarket and will offer 7000 sqm of retail and 23 commercial lots designed to serve the local community and bring together curated shopping, dining, gym, wellness, childcare, medical and other essential services.</p>

<p><img alt="Cons prop" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="fca7dc71-4b71-45b1-bb04-5a60bd7158d0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-04-20%20at%208.34.04%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=vAKwIvLuwmTKj6blHJRYIEeXS_8lCgUx" /></p>

<p>The project will create more than 1500 jobs over its development cycle, according to its economic modelling, and significantly address the shortage of employment land in the Tweed.</p>

<p>The residential areas will encourage a sense of community via a cohesive urban design that encourages walking, cycling, enhanced resident connectivity and reduced reliance on cars via bike paths and pedestrian-friendly streets.</p>

<p>Homesites will include a range of options from premium ridge-top homes to affordable housing options, ensuring a community that is inclusive of different income levels and designed to appeal to a wide demographic from baby boomers to families, singles and professionals. Architectural and planting covenants on home building will support the village’s built form and protect its character.</p>

<p>O’Rorke says CPG intends Caldera to be a model project delivered efficiently in a dedicated urban release area and ‘very much for this region and for this time’.</p>

<p>“Our vision for Caldera is to create a modern coastal village with its own unique northern NSW identity,” he said.</p>

<p>“Building on our legacy of Casuarina, 25 years on, this new village is designed to stand apart, offering the future of modern living, balancing the natural beauty of the region with contemporary amenities and convenience.</p>

<p>“Caldera will be more than just a place to live - it will be a welcoming, inclusive coastal village neighbouring Pottsville that invites visitors and embraces new residents. With its strong ties to the land, vibrant lifestyle and sense of place, Caldera will set a new standard for village living in Northern NSW.”</p>

<p><img alt="CPG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="9a5a7cf4-5f76-4ddf-bd05-c8fb77d0a787" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-04-20%20at%208.33.59%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=J1CzCGD7kE7fcAMd41V4pKAf_sI4L5Jv" /></p>

<p>The project’s centrepiece is environmental sustainability, with comprehensive wetlands protection measures and planting of native trees, parklands, village greens and communal grounds to enhance the natural beauty of the area.</p>

<p>CPG will also deliver a developer-funded wastewater treatment plant to ensure zero ocean outflows and provide high quality long-term infrastructure for Tweed Shire.</p>

<p>A key focus is wildlife management planning, including extensive conservation controls for the West Pottsville koala population, aligned with Tweed Shire Council’s Koala Plan of Management and designed to enhance koala habitat connectivity and future population growth.</p>

<p>Caldera will extend the existing koala corridor by connecting koala precincts west of the Pacific Highway with populations in the north and east precincts. A koala underpass will be created under Pottsville Road to complete the connection of this important corridor. Native tree plantings will expand essential koala food sources, while approximately eight kilometres of exclusion fencing will be constructed to safeguard the koalas from urban threats.</p>

<p>The Caldera site is nestled in the hills of Cudgera Creek and benefits from its rich natural surroundings including the Pottsville Wetland, Cudgera Creek Nature Reserve and nearby Pottsville Beach.</p>

<p>It takes its name from the surrounding Tweed Shield Volcano and Caldera, the vast bowl-shaped depression stretching from Byron Bay to the Queensland border that 20 million years ago was the world’s largest shield volcano and which has shaped the region’s striking landscape, with Mount Warning standing as one of its most iconic features.</p>

<p>The development is a joint venture between CPG and Pottsville Development Corporation, which made its first investment in Pottsville more than 45 years ago and is the developer of Black Rocks By the Sea, a masterplanned community now part of the fabric of Pottsville and which was the catalyst for the construction of a bridge across the Pottsville Estuary, providing direct access to the beach.</p>

<p>CPG’s $1.5 billion Casuarina Beach township, 10 kilometres to the north of Caldera, commenced construction in 2000 and has become the model for modern Australian, eco-sensitive beachside development.</p>


Consolidated Properties unveils $800m coastal village Caldera in Casuarina

<p data-end="184" data-start="92">Growing national developer Time &amp; Place has announced its fifth new apartment development.</p>

<p data-end="408" data-start="186">With two projects in Manly and two upcoming in Surry Hills and Potts Point, the developer, which expanded beyond Melbourne just a few years ago, is now heading to Mosman. It is planning 53 new apartments on Redan Street.</p>

<p data-end="553" data-start="410">The 3,233 sqm site, spanning <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/40-48-redan-street-mosman-nsw-2088">40–48 Redan Street</a> with frontage to Redan Lane, is located just under 400 metres from Spit Junction Town Centre. It is reported the developer paid around $100 million for the five-site amalgamation.</p>

<p data-end="762" data-start="555">Time &amp; Place, founded by Tim Price and backed by James Packer’s private investment firm NPACT, has submitted the project as a State Significant Development through the NSW Government’s Housing Delivery Authority pathway.</p>

<p data-end="918" data-start="764">Of the 53 apartments, 42 will be released to the market, with the remaining 11 allocated as affordable housing in line with NSW Government requirements.</p>

<p data-end="1241" data-start="920">fjc Studio has designed the building. In its Design Report, the architect said the diverse mix of dwelling types and sizes, including 11 two-bedroom affordable housing units, 40 three-bedroom apartments, and two four-bedroom residences, will support a broad demographic, including families, downsizers, and key workers.</p>

<p data-end="1519" data-start="1243">The development will rise to nine levels, a height encouraged by the NSW Government due to the site’s proximity to Spit Junction, which has been identified as a low- to mid-rise centre. Developments within a certain proximity to these centres are permitted increased height.</p>

<p data-end="1830" data-start="1521">fjc said the project “achieves an appropriate density outcome for its setting by balancing increased housing supply with strong amenity performance,” adding that it “makes a measurable contribution to NSW housing supply targets through the delivery of additional dwellings and dedicated affordable housing.”</p>

<p data-end="1898" data-start="1832">The new development will replace five existing two-storey homes.</p>

<p data-end="2218" data-start="1900">“By aligning with the objectives of the Housing SEPP and applying careful architectural and urban design principles, the development provides high-quality residential accommodation that integrates sensitively within its established Mosman context and delivers enduring benefits to residents and the wider community.”</p>

<p data-end="2293" data-start="2220">Mosman has become increasingly popular with developers in recent years.</p>

<p data-end="2616" data-start="2295">Developer Abadeen has been particularly active, with Mosman Residences currently on the market and under construction on Clifford Street. It also has an upcoming Burran Avenue project, comprising just three apartments on the Balmoral Slopes, and recently secured the Midas and Honeysuckle nursery site on Military Road.</p>

<p data-end="2729" data-start="2618">Prosker Property has a project on Redan Lane, just a few doors down from Time &amp; Place’s proposed development.</p>

<p data-end="2948" data-start="2731">Developers including Toohey Miller, DARE Property Group, and WINIM also have projects underway in the area. In 2024, a five-year target was set for the Mosman LGA to increase housing supply by 500 dwellings by 2029.</p>

<p>Time &amp; Place entered the Sydney market with Two Tides, its under construction Manly development. Given its sales success, it has secured another development in the area, more boutique, facing the beach on North Steyne.</p>

<p>They are hoping to launch their redevelopment of The Chimes in Potts Point this year, and next year will look to take to market Marlborough House, an adaptive re-use of the landmark David Jones warehouse in Surry Hills.</p>


Time & Place to take on Mosman apartment market

<p>Australia&#39;s inflation, a key metric in the RBA&#39;s future interest rate calls, rose 0.6 per cent over the March quarter, according to data released by the ABS.</p>

<p>The consumer price index (CPI)&nbsp;came in materially lower than what was forecasted across markets and broadly in line with the RBA&#39;s below market expectation.</p>

<p>Westpac was forecasting a one per cent lift in the CPI, with AMP Capital forecasting a 0.9 per cent rise.</p>

<p>The RBA&nbsp;say they will not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the two to three per cent range.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=27728]</p>

<p>For this to occur, wages growth will have to be materially higher than it is currently, which&nbsp;will require significant gains in employment and a return to a tight labour market, the RBA noted at its April board meeting.</p>

<p>The latest results will unlikely change the RBA&#39;s thinking that rates won&#39;t move until 2024 at the earliest.</p>

<p>CPI was 1.1 per cent up annually, compared to the forecasted 1.4 per cent.</p>

<p>New dwelling prices declined 0.1 per cent over the quarter, namely due to the impact of the Federal Government&#39;s HomeBuilder grant and similar grants by Western Australian and Tasmania state governments.</p>

<p>&quot;Without the offset from these grants, the price of new dwelling would have risen, reflecting increases in materials and labour prices in response to strong demand&quot;, head of prices statistics at the&nbsp;ABS&nbsp;Michelle&nbsp;Marquardt said.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>


The consumer price index (CPI) came in materially lower than what was forecasted across markets



RBA unlikely to advance interest rate moves after lower than expected inflation figures

<html><body>
<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>The consumer price index (CPI) for June 2017 was released earlier this week showed that over the quarter headline inflation was recorded at 0.2% which took inflation to just 1.9% over the year to June 2017. </p>
<p>Although annual headline CPI was temporarily within the Reserve Bank (RBA) target range of 2% to 3% over the March 2017, it has been below target for 10 of the past 11 quarters.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/04/chart-1-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/04/chart-1-1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Adjusting dwelling value growth for inflation provides valuable insight into the housing market’s performance.  With inflation currently at such a low level, adjusting for it is not resulting in any additional capital cities seeing value decline however, over the longer term it does highlight the significant under performance in terms of value growth for certain cities.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/04/chart-2-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/04/chart-2-1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>While in nominal terms capital city dwelling values declined in 2008 and then again in 2011-12, in real terms the declines were larger over these two periods and values also declined in 2004-05.  In nominal terms, values fell by -6.1% between March and December of 2008 and by -6.4% between September 2010 and June 2012.  In real terms, values fell by -2.6% between March 2004 and December 2005, by -8.3% between March and December 2008 and by -10.8% between September 2010 and December 2012.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/04/chart-3-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/04/chart-3-1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Since the value declines ceased at the end of 2008, only Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra have actually recorded real growth in dwelling values.  In all other cities, real dwelling values are currently lower than they were at the end of 2008 which is now almost nine years ago.  This data really highlights the uneven nature of growth across the capital city housing markets since the end of the financial crisis. It also shows that low mortgage rates alone are not the driver of the much stronger growth in Sydney and Melbourne.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/04/chart-4-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/04/chart-4-1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The above chart shows the change in real dwelling values across each capital city relative to their most recent market peaks.  The chart again shows that values are only above their previous peak in Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra.  Brisbane values are -9.3% lower than their peak in March 2008, Adelaide values peaked in June 2010 and are still -6.3% lower.  In Perth, the market peak was September 2007 and values are still -20.0% off their peak and in Hobart values are -11.2% lower than their peak which occurred in December 2007.  Finally, Darwin has seen the largest fall in real dwelling values, down -26.7% from its peak with the peak having occurred in September 2010.</p>
<p>The regularly reported nominal value data is valuable however, it is important and interesting to consider the impact of inflation on dwelling values from time-to-time.  As the data shows, outside of Sydney and Melbourne and to a lesser degree Canberra, dwelling value growth has been extremely weak for a number of years now.</p>
<p><span><span>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic. You can contact him </span><a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/" target="_blank">here</a><span>.</span> </span></p>
</body></html>

ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Since 2008, only Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra have seen ‘real’ growth in dwelling values

<html><body>
<div>Whoa, there! It seems that inflation has disappeared into a puff of dust!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Nothing like an outlying result to shake things up a bit, and today's Consumer Price Index (CPI) or inflation result for the March quarter was an absolute ripper!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Headline inflation printed negative at -0.2 percent. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This was miles below expectations and the second weakest reading in nearly two decades, taking the annual result all the way down to 1.3 percent (which is well below the target inflation range to 2 to 3 percent).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The falls were broad based, with six out of the eleven CPI groups recording declines.</div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/04/28/A6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/04/28/A6.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p> </p>
<div>More importantly, the "core" analytical series, which strips out outlying readings, notched an extraordinarily soft set of numbers to take the respective annual readings to a record low. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>I've diced the data up below to four decimal places, but all you really need to know is that the incredibly weak trimmed mean (0.2 per cent) and weighted median (0.1 per cent) inflation for the quarter have taken the annual readings down to exceptionally low levels at 1.7 per cent and only 1.4 per cent respectively.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/04/28/A5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/04/28/A5.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Non-tradables inflation, which is taken to be a reasonable proxy for domestic price pressures, fell to its lowest annual reading since some seventeen years ago in June 1999. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/04/28/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/04/28/A1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<p> </p>
<div>In the normal course of things this sort of result would make an interest rate cut a no-brainer.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>While markets are suddenly pricing a cut as soon as next week on Budget day as an each-way bet, it would nevertheless still be quite a surprise to see such a change of narrative from the Reserve Bank so soon. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>That said many analysts will now see June and August as potentially live meetings for rate cuts, which could take the cash rate down to a record low of just 1.50 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Generally it is said that easy monetary policy brings inflation in time, but if a lack of investment is the underlying problem then it is questionable whether more rate cuts alone will bring this to the party.</div>
<p><br><span>Anyway, what a result, and a game-changer, indeed!</span></p>
<div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Rental growth slowest since 1994</span></strong>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There isn't space here to run through all of the positive (education, medical services, pharmaceuticals) and negative (fuel, transport, holidays) contributors to inflation this quarter in detail, but we can see that rental growth has slowed to its lowest level since 1994. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>As you can see depicted in the chart below, the periods when investors were spooked out of the market (1985 to 1987, and 2008) were also precisely the periods when rents spiked.</div>
<div>
<br>Correspondingly the record surge in investor activity since 2012 in response to low interest rates - which Blind Freddy could have predicted - has led to near-record low levels of rental growth.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Rampant investor lending has now been successfully stymied so equilibrium should return in due course, as the construction boom also passes its peak. It's always interesting and strangely satisfying when markets work just as they should. </div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/04/28/A2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/04/28/A2.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p> </p>
<div>Rents have continued to rise modestly in most cities through this cycle, but Darwin (-4.4 per cent) and Perth (-4.4 per cent) are in significantly negative territory year-on-year. On the other hand rents kept rising in Sydney by another +2.3 per cent over the year to March.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/04/28/A4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/04/28/A4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Looking instead at annual rental growth we can see how Perth has gone from star pupil straight into detention, and now must work through its elevated vacancy rates before annual rental growth reverts to the mean.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/04/28/A3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/04/28/A3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>Rental growth was also negative in Canberra over the year to March (-0.6 per cent) but looks to be heading back into positive territory in the national's capital, while annual rental growth in Hobart increased to 1.4 per cent in the first quarter.</div>
<p><strong style="line-height: 1.3em;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<div>Well, well. A stunningly low inflation result which wrong-footed markets and puts interest rate cuts right back into the frame. Game on.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
</body></html>

pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Inflation show stopper: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released consumer price index (CPI) data for the September 2016 quarter last month. </p>
<p>According to the data, headline inflation increased by 0.7 percent over the quarter to be 1.3 percent higher over the year. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, underlying inflation was recorded at 0.3 percent over the quarter and 1.5 percent higher over the past 12 months. Both headline and underlying inflation have increased at a rate below the RBAs target range of 2 percent to 3 percent. </p>
<p>This would usually see the RBA cut interest rates to try and lift inflation however, the previous cuts in May and August, which had the same intent, have not successfully lifted inflation. </p>
<p>What those cuts did manage to do was re-energise growth in housing, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne. </p>
<p>For this reason there is some speculation as to whether the RBA will risk cutting interest rates again given concerns that a lower cash rate will fail to push the dollar lower and lift inflation but add further heat to an already strong housing market.</p>
<p>With the CPI data released, we can pair it with the CoreLogic home value index data to September 2016, in order to obtain an understanding of real growth in values. </p>
<p>Although headline value growth is lower than it was a year ago, so too is headline inflation which mean that real value growth, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne remains strong.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/10/31/CoreLogic%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/10/31/CoreLogic%201.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The above chart highlights the real and nominal changes in home values across each capital city over the 12 months to September 2016.  In both real and nominal terms values have fallen over the past year in both Perth and Darwin while they have increased across each of the remaining capital cities. </p>
<p>There’s also been evidence that along with Sydney and Melbourne, where growth has been strong for almost four years now, value growth has also picked up in other cities such as Adelaide, Hobart and Canberra.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/10/31/CoreLogic%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/10/31/CoreLogic%202.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>If you look at the compound annual change in real home values over the past five, ten and 15 years, the 15 year time-frame in most capital city provides the strongest performance. </p>
<p>The clear exception is in Sydney where the last five years have resulted in the strongest annual returns.  In contrast, across all other capital cities except for Perth and Hobart the past five years have recorded the weakest annual growth across each of the three time-frame. </p>
<p>This result really highlights the strength of the Sydney market over the past five years and its relative weakness over the 10 years preceding.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/10/31/CoreLogic%203.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/10/31/CoreLogic%203.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Since the end of 2008 (ie post GFC), growth in home values has significantly skewed towards the Sydney and Melbourne housing markets. </p>
<p>As highlighted in the above chart, when adjusted for inflation values are lower that they were at the end of 2008 in Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth, Hobart and Darwin. </p>
<p>Sydney and Melbourne have also seen a substantially greater increase in values relative to Canberra which was the only other capital city to have seen an increase in real home values.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/10/31/CoreLogic%204.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/10/31/CoreLogic%204.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Sydney and Melbourne are the only two capital cities in which real home values are now back above their previous peaks. </p>
<p>After peaking all the way back in the March 2004 quarter, real home values in Sydney are now 35.3 percent higher in Sydney and in Melbourne they are 17.2 percent higher than their September 2010 peak. </p>
<p>All other capital cities are still recording real home values below their previous peaks.  The magnitude of these declines are recorded at: -10.2% in Brisbane, -5.3 percent in Adelaide, -20.2 percent in Perth, -15.6 percent in Hobart, -23.8 percent in Darwin and -1.0 percent in Canberra. </p>
<p>In some of these cities, values peaked many years ago, as far back as 2007 in Perth and Hobart and 2008 in Brisbane.</p>
<p>Although interest rates are low and in real terms homes have been becoming more affordable outside of Sydney and Melbourne it still hasn’t proved to be enough to lure substantial demand and subsequent growth across the other capital cities. </p>
<p>What this highlights is the importance of employment, what sets Sydney and Melbourne apart, outside of more expensive housing prices, is the fact that they both have strong economies which are creating jobs. </p>
<p>Housing affordability alone is no longer enough to attract an increasing level of housing demand, you need a strong economy and the jobs that go along with those strong economic conditions.</p>
<p>Perth and Darwin in particular are well into a fairly substantial value decline phase which is appears set to continue.  Since their respective market peaks in September 2007 and September 2010, real home values are now -20.2 percent and -23.8 percent lower respectively.</p>
<p><em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.</em></p>
</body></html>

Home values now more than 20 percent down in Perth and Darwin

<html><body>
<div>A surprisingly soft inflation result, and one which puts further interest rate cuts right back in the frame, if indeed they ever snuck out of shot.<br><br>
</div>
<div>Headline CPI printed at 0.5% for the June quarter for an annual result of just 1.5%, well beneath the target range of inflation, thereby locking in the weakest run of inflation results we have seen in years.<br><br>Indeed the index numbers show that the headline result was weaker still, and only rounding took the headline figure up to 0.5% for the September quarter.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The soft result was influenced by the declining price of vegetables (!), telco quipment &amp; services, and perhaps more predictably, automotive fuel. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/10/29/Inflation1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/10/29/Inflation1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>Non tradables or domestic inflation came in at a soft 0.4% for the quarter and 2.6% for the year, suggesting that domestic price pressures are fairly subdued, while tradables inflation remained very soft. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/10/29/Inflation2.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/10/29/Inflation2.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<span>Despite the Aussie dollar having tanked all the way from above parity against the US dollar to around 71.3 cents after this release, there still seems to be little evidence of inflationary pressure.</span><br><br><span>This is generally viewed as a sign of weakness for the economy, with wages growth sundued and sentiment too weak to see the higher prices of imports to be passed on to consumers.</span><br><br><span>Most significantly of all the underlying measures of inflation - the trimmed mean and weighted median - both came in at just 0.3% for the quarter, for annual prints of  2.1 and 2.2% respectively.</span>
</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/10/29/Inflation3.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/10/29/Inflation3.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>These figures will be seen to add to the case for further interest rate cuts with inflation sinking towards the bottom end of the target range and unemployment remaining above 6%.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Futures markets are undecided about an interest rate cut on Melbourne Cup Day next week (62% chance), but hav priced in a high probability of the cash rate being dropped once again before the Christmas break.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
</div>
</body></html>

Veggie price decline influences inflation outcome: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<p><strong>EXPERT OBSERVATION</strong></p>
<p>The latest consumer price index (CPI) data released shows that Australia is in deflation, and over the quarter, national rents fell by -1.3 per cent, which was both the largest and first quarterly decline on record.</p>
<p>Nationally, the cost of renting is now back at levels last recorded in March 2017.</p>
<p>Despite falling rents throughout the quarter, the volume of rental searches on realestate.com.au is actually up 38.5 per cent.</p>
<p>Not only are people searching more, the volume of high-intent activity on the rental section of realestate.com.au is also up by 74.5 per cent over the same period.</p>
<p>The results are a clear indicator of how COVID-19 has changed the property market dynamic.</p>
<p>Rental rates are coming under pressure from multiple sources. We have virtually no migration, there is new stimulus encouraging purchasing from first home buyers who otherwise may have been renters, and then there's the fact that unemployment is rising, and younger people are most affected.</p>
<p>With a moratorium on rental evictions in place until September, the next quarter is unlikely to see rental CPI fall as severely. Thereafter it is likely rental rates will fall further and will take quite some time to recover to previous highs.</p>
<p>The high demand on realestate.com.au is likely due to the possibility of finding cheaper and or better rentals, as evidenced by the CPI data.</p>
<p><strong>Cameron Kusher</strong><em> is director of economic research at the REA Group</em></p>
</body></html>

j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Falling rental rates unlikely to bounce back soon: Cameron Kusher 

<html><body>
<p>The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 1.9 per cent in the June 2020 quarter, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.</p>
<p>"This was the largest quarterly fall in the 72 year history of the CPI,” chief economist for the ABS Bruce Hockman said.<span style="font-size: 12.16px;"> </span></p>
<p>The annual inflation rate was -0.3 per cent in the year to the June 2020 quarter.</p>
<p>"Since 1949, this was only the third time annual inflation has been negative. The previous times were in 1962 and 1997-98,” Hockman added.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/6401.0Media%20Release1June%202020/%24File/CPI_July_2020.svg" target="_blank"><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/7/29/CPI%20image.png" alt=""></a></p>
<p><span>The June quarter fall was mainly the result of free child care (-95 per cent), a significant fall in the price of automotive fuel (-19.3 per cent) and a fall in pre-school and primary education (-16.2 per cent), with free pre-school being provided in NSW, Victoria and Queensland.</span></p>
<p><span>"Excluding these three components, the CPI would have risen 0.1 per cent in the June quarter", Hockman said.</span></p>
</body></html>

Consumer Price Index falls 1.9% in June: Australian Bureau of Statistics

<html><body>
<p>EXPERT OBSERVATION<strong> </strong></p>
<p class="CSbulletlv1"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Inflation:</span> The Consumer Price Index – the main measure of inflation in Australia – rose by 0.3 per cent in the March quarter (consensus: 0.2 per cent). In seasonally adjusted terms the CPI rose by 0.4 per cent. The annual rate of headline inflation lifted from 1.8 per cent to 2.2 per cent – the strongest pace in 5½ years. </p>
<p class="CSbulletlv1"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Underlying measures:</span> The Reserve Bank monitors three measures to derive the underlying inflation rate. The trimmed mean rose by 0.5 per cent in the March quarter (1.8 per cent annual); the weighted median rose by 0.5 per cent (1.7 per cent annual) and the CPI less volatile items rose by 0.5 per cent (2.1 per cent annual). Overall, underlying inflation rose by around 0.5 per cent in the quarter and by around 1.7 per cent over the year. Market goods and services less volatile items rose by 0.3 per cent in the quarter to be up 2.1 per cent on the year.</p>
<p class="CSbulletlv1"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Main changes:</span> The most significant price rises in the March quarter were for food and non-alcoholic beverages (+1.9 per cent), alcohol and tobacco (+1.6 per cent), education (+2.6 per cent) and health (+1.7 per cent). The most significant offsetting price falls this quarter are automotive fuel (-6.0 per cent), domestic holiday travel and accommodation (-3.1 per cent) and international holiday travel and accommodation (-3.0 per cent).</p>
<h2>What does it all mean?</h2>
<p class="bullets">Aussies venturing out to buy essentials at supermarkets during the peak of the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis would’ve noticed that food had become more expensive. In fact, prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages surged by an annual growth rate of 3.2 per cent in the March quarter – the strongest rate in 5½ years – propelling overall headline consumer prices higher. Why? Supply shortages due to the drought and bushfires – fruit and vegetable prices lifted sharply. </p>
<p class="bullets">The Bureau of Statistics said, <em>“There were some price effects of COVID-19 apparent in the March quarter due to higher purchasing of certain products towards the end of the quarter, as restrictions came into effect. Most notably, rises were seen in, other non-durable household products (+3.4 per cent), which includes toilet paper; personal care products (+2.2 per cent), which includes soap and hand sanitiser; and other cereal products (+4.4 per cent), which includes rice and pasta.”</em></p>
<p class="bullets">The lift in grocery prices broadly aligns with Coles’ sales report today. The supermarket chain not only reported a record 12.9 per cent lift in sales to $9.2 billion during the March quarter, but it also announced that its grocery and food prices rose by 2.6 per cent during the quarter, or by 1.8 per cent excluding tobacco and fresh foods. Why? COVID-19 panic buying saw a surge in shopper demand so the company scaled-back promotional activity with consumers preferring to purchase smaller grocery pack sizes in the frenzy.</p>
<p class="bullets">But before anyone gets too excited about the headline annual inflation rate hitting the lower end of the Reserve Bank’s 2-3 per cent target band, the demand shock from the virus crisis is about to plunge Australia into the deflationary world, a world experienced by Japan and Europe in recent years. In fact, Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe warned last week that, <em>“it is quite likely that year-ended headline inflation will turn negative in June. If so, this would be the first time since the early 1960s that the price level has fallen over a full year.”</em></p>
<p class="bullets"> A sharp decline in crude oil and petrol prices, supportive government measures to cap and reduce prices - such as free childcare – tepid wage growth and weaker home rental prices are all likely to be disinflationary. Given the size of the housing cost basket within the consumer price index - around 23 per cent – falling home prices, higher vacancy rates and weaker rents could persist for the rest of 2020, weighing on consumer prices. </p>
<p class="bullets">Slow wage growth and falling prices of consumer goods – such as electronics, clothing and footwear – have been a feature of low-inflation for several years now. And businesses have been reluctant to pass on the rising cost of imported goods (due to the weaker Aussie dollar) amid consumer spending caution and intense competition. The huge impact of the economic shutdown will see deflation persist for a few quarters. In fact, Commonwealth Bank Group economists are forecasting the annual headline rate to fall to just 0.5 per cent in 2020 after turning negative in the June quarter. But the annual underlying inflation measure (trimmed mean) is estimated to hold up at 1.3 per cent in 2020.</p>
<p class="bullets"><strong>RYAN FELSMAN </strong><em>senior economist at CommSec</em></p>
</body></html>

Highest headline inflation in 5½ years: Ryan Felsman

<html><body>
<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>The Consumer Price Index – the main measure of inflation in Australia – rose by 0.5% in the September quarter, in line with expectations. In seasonally adjusted terms the CPI rose by 0.3%. The annual rate of headline inflation lifted from 1.6% to 1.7%. The Aussie dollar was unchanged against the greenback in response.</p>
<p>The Reserve Bank monitors three measures to derive the underlying inflation rate. The trimmed mean rose by 0.4% in the September quarter (1.6% annual); the weighted median rose by 0.3% (1.2% annual) and the CPI less volatile items rose by 0.8% (1.9% annual).</p>
<p>Overall, underlying inflation rose by around 0.5% in the quarter and by around 1.5% over the year. Market goods and services less volatile items rose by 0.8% in the quarter (biggest rise in almost four years) to be up 1.8% on the year.</p>
<p>International holiday travel (+6.1%), tobacco (+3.4%), property rates &amp; charges (+2.5%) and child care (+2.5%) recorded the most significant price gains. The most significant offsetting price falls this quarter are automotive fuel (-2.0%), fruit (-3.1%), and vegetables (-2.5%).</p>
<p><strong>What does it all mean?</strong></p>
<p>Inflation remains contained. The headline annual inflation rate has bottomed, but it is creeping, rather than leaping, towards the Reserve Bank’s 2-3% target band. That is more than we can say about ‘underlying inflation’ which solidly remains near 1.5%.</p>
<p>Headline inflation may be boosted by the drought effects on food prices in coming quarters. Higher home prices may serve to lift some price measures in the ‘Housing’ grouping. Wage growth may remain low but it is still outpacing prices. And with productivity growth near zero, the positive real wage growth may be applying some upward pressure on prices – especially in the services sector.</p>
<p>The Reserve Bank has indicated that rate cuts are still possible. But the language from the policymakers suggest that they are very reluctant rate cutters from here. Rates are low enough and the rate cuts have actually been having the opposite to the desired affect – spooking Aussie consumers. And there is evidence to support the ‘gentle turning point’ view of the Reserve Bank. Unemployment fell last month and home prices are again barrelling higher in Sydney and Melbourne. </p>
<p>The Reserve Bank is expected to wait until at least February 2020 to decide if more interest rate stimulus is required.</p>
<p><em><strong>Craig James</strong> is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>. </em></p>
</body></html>

jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Inflation rate creeps towards RBA target zone: CommSec

<html><body>
<p>CPI has risen in line with market expectations for September, according to the latest figures from the ABS.</p>
<p>The 0.5 per cent gains, described by many as "soft", were down from 0.6 per cent in the June quarter. </p>
<p><span>"Despite the price falls for fruit and vegetables this quarter, the drought is impacting on the prices for a range of food products," ABS chief economist Bruce Hockman advised.</span></p>
<p><span>"Prices rose this quarter for meat and seafood (+1.7 per cent), dairy and related products (+2.2 per cent) and bread and cereal products (+1.3 per cent)."</span><br><br><span>The CPI rose 1.7 per cent through the year to the September 2019 quarter. This follows a through the year rise of 1.6 per cent to the June 2019 quarter.</span></p>
<p><span>"Annual inflation remains subdued partly due to price rises for housing related expenses remaining low, and in some cases falling in annual terms. Prices for utilities (-0.3 per cent) and new dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers (-0.1 per cent) both fell slightly through the year to the September 2019 quarter, while rents (0.4 per cent) recorded only a small rise," Hockman noted.</span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/10/30/Headline%20CPI.jpg" alt=""><br><br>Source: James Foster @JFosterFM</span></p>
<p><span>The RBA prefer to measure core inflation, which eased to 1.4 per cent.</span></p>
<p><span>"No signs of an inflation breakout," Indeed APAC economist Callam Pickering suggested.</span></p>
<p>Westpac had forecasted 0.6 per cent in the September quarter, which even with that figure higher than the market forecasts, would be inline with their prediction for another rate cut before year end.</p>
<p>"While the RBA has been talking mostly about the unemployment rate in recent months, every CPI report is important for its forecasts which are updated just after the release," Westpac's Justin Smirk said.</p>
<p><span>"A core CPI reading in line with our expectations should keep markets pricing in a reasonable risk of another rate cut before year-end."</span></p>
<p>Alex Joiner, economist at IFM, said the figures were in line with RBA's data, which might give them another quarter to asses the data.</p>
<p>CommSec's Craig James says the headline inflation rate is creeping, rather than leaping, towards the Reserve Bank's two to three per cent target band.</p>
<p>"The Reserve Bank is expected to wait until at least February 2020 to decide if more interest rate stimulus is required," James said.</p>
<p class="bullets"> </p>
<p> </p>
<p>  </p>
<p> </p>
<p>  </p>
</body></html>

Cpi

Editor's Picks

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News

Cpi