IPM Property is progressing plans for its third development in Mona Vale in Sydney's Northern Beaches, and its latest will be the biggest yet.

IPM, led by Steven Sroba and Chris Webster, has filed a State Significant Development Application to the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority for 82 apartments on a prime 6,122 sqm site stretching across <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/159-167-darley-street-west-mona-vale-nsw-2103">159-167 Darley Street West</a>, opposite Bayview Golf Course and just under 800m from Mona Vale town centre.

They've had <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/pbd-architects">PBD Architects</a> draw up the plans for the three-building development which will offer a mix of 26 two-bedroom units and 56 three-beds with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/mim-design">Mim Design</a>.

According to the Design Report by PBD, the built form "responds to the site’s natural fall, solar orientation, and established vegetation, creating a layered architectural expression that balances scale, materiality, and landscape”.

<img alt="159-167 Darley Street West, Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="44040ed2-13c6-4f18-8326-a51467cb8532" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Mona%20vale%20pers.png?VersionId=4H1gEiyyCX2yT_fYV6kAdWaaVlCttC6P" />

The proposal aims to maximise passive design outcomes, with the site’s northern orientation supporting solar access and cross-ventilation. Building footprints have been shaped to preserve high-retention trees and accommodate an overland flow path, which runs diagonally through the rear of the site.

The development includes several sustainability initiatives, such as full electrification, EV charging provisions, and generous communal open spaces integrated across the ground and rooftop levels. As outlined in the planning documents, the buildings have been stepped in both plan and elevation to reduce bulk and provide separation to adjacent dwellings, in line with the Apartment Design Guide and local controls.

The project site falls just within the 800-metre radius covered by the NSW Government’s Low and Mid-Rise Housing Reforms, which entered their second stage in February 2025. These reforms introduce specific planning controls that significantly increase the potential for medium-density housing growth within 800 metres of the Mona Vale town centre.

<img alt="159-167 Darley Street West, Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="5df61e6d-0696-4c1e-81c2-8d3535228878" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/site_9.png?VersionId=vWjI2oCZhAkCPKv4xMEVLdVNkn.keD6_" />

IPM has been active in the local market for several years. Its recent projects include Maya on Bungan Street near the town centre, a 33-apartment development completed in late 2024, and Iluka on beachfront Golf Avenue, a boutique project of just 14 apartments. Iluka set a local record in 2021 when a full-floor, three-bedroom apartment sold off the plan for $4.775 million.

Nearby in Palm Beach, IPM is also delivering Snappermans, a collection of just five luxury apartments designed by Koichi Takada Architects, located steps from Pittwater. The developer has also recently completed Como Coogee, a 20-apartment development on Carrington Road.

Joel Robinson

First look: IPM plans third Mona Vale project

With demand for high-quality family homes in the inner west continuing to rise, young families are increasingly turning to new forms of multi-generational living.

At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/ashbury-terraces-ashbury-165-171-milton-street-ashbury-nsw-2193">Ashbury Terraces</a>, Nikki Pham and Danny Lai are among the growing number of residents choosing the precinct for its space, design integrity and strong sense of community.

For Nikki and Danny, purchasing a three-storey terrace was about securing a long-term home for their young family. Having spent most of their lives in the inner west, they first discovered the project while it was under construction.

“We walked past and had a look during the build and instantly felt the vibe. It had everything we were looking for,” said Nikki.

A return to green, open spaces was a major drawcard after living closer to the CBD.

“We like going for walks, and here it feels like a mini oasis while still being central to everything we need,” she said.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112253 project_image_fid=354944]

Inside, the couple were immediately drawn to the craftsmanship.&nbsp;

“I love the Calacatta marble and timber detailing. If I’d designed it myself, these are exactly the fittings and fixtures I would have picked,” Nikki said. “There’s actually very little I’d change.

“We’ve found the craftsmanship has been great and I believe the beautiful arches and curves, including on our stunning staircase, are all made by hand.”

Since moving in with their seven-month-old baby in mid-August, the family has been making the most of the amenities, especially the pool.&nbsp;

“We love using the shallow area with the baby. It’s great for kids, and the sunbeds are perfect when it’s not too hot,” Danny said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112253 project_image_fid=354939]

The home features kitchen, living and dining areas on the ground floor with courtyard access to the pool, two bedrooms and a study on the middle level, and a master suite on the top floor. The proximity to local parks, childcare, and schools also made it an easy choice.

Nikki has noticed the project is sparking interest from the extended families of new residents.&nbsp;

“Several of our neighbour’s parents have now bought here too. It’s ideal for multi-generational living because everyone has their own space but you’re still close by.”

<h2>A growing trend in the inner west</h2>

Aras Labutis, Head of Urban Transformations at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/coronation-property">Coronation Property</a>, said families like Nikki and Danny’s reflect a broader shift.

“Ashbury Terraces was designed for families at different life stages who want to stay connected to the inner west, including multi-generational households," Labutis said.

"Some terraces even include lifts, which make them ideal for older residents who want to remain independent while living close to children or grandchildren."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112253 project_image_fid=354936]

Recent ABS data shows around one in five Australian households is now multigenerational, following a 22 per cent rise in the five years to 2021.

“The demand we’re seeing aligns with broader national data showing ongoing growth in multi-generational living as families look for practical, long-term solutions in well-connected suburbs.”

&nbsp;

<h2>Milton Estate launches as the precinct’s next chapter</h2>

Following this strong response, Coronation is now registering expressions of interest for Milton Estate, the next evolution of the precinct. Strong sales and sustained interest in family-focused inner west homes have underpinned the decision to bring this next stage to market sooner than anticipated.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112253 project_image_fid=358839]

The new collection continues the same design principles, quality materials, heritage sensitivity and family-focused layouts, and its launch reflects demand from both local buyers and extended families who want to remain part of the growing community at Ashbury Terraces.

&nbsp;

<h2>A new neighbourhood taking shape</h2>

Designed by award-winning architects <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/sjb-architects">SJB</a>, and brought to life with landscaping by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/360-degrees-landscape">360 Degrees</a>, Ashbury Terraces comprises 136 residences across five low-rise buildings, supported by amenities including a pool, gym and landscaped communal spaces.

For Nikki and Danny, it already feels like a place to grow for years to come.

“We’ve found great childcare nearby, and Ashbury Primary and Trinity Grammar are within easy reach. There are other excellent public and private school options too,” Nikki said.

“It’s hard to find something like this in the Inner West,” she added. “It’s certainly unique in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/ashbury-nsw-2193">Ashbury</a>. We’ve got everything we need here and it already feels like home.”

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112253]

Staff Writer

Ashbury Terraces proves a perfect fit for growing families and multi-generational living

An exclusive collection of luxury Sky Homes featuring sweeping water views, each with their own private rooftop terrace and marina berth, are part of the latest release at Lewis Land’s visionary <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/harbour-shores-biggera-waters-564-oxley-drive-biggera-waters-qld-4216">Harbour Shores</a> masterplanned community.&nbsp;

The Sky Homes, which sit within the Signature Collection, have been designed by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bda-architecture">BDA Architecture</a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;feature contemporary light-filled coastal interiors, accented by natural textures of timber and stone. The homes range from 282 sqm to 367sqm and offer three bedrooms, three bathrooms, multiple living zones, three car parks, large private balconies, and their own rooftop terraces. &nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=113271 project_image_fid=359204]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/lewis-land-group">Lewis Land</a> Head of Development Michael Long said the three double-storey Sky Homes occupying the &nbsp;upper levels of The Waterline apartment building formed part of the masterplan’s Signature Collection of &nbsp;luxury residences. &nbsp;

“The exclusive Sky Homes are more than penthouses, they are double-storey homes featuring expansive living spaces and outdoor terraces,” Mr Long said.&nbsp;

“Located on levels five and six of The Waterline, each Sky Home includes its own private marina berth with direct Broadwater access and carefully curated high-end finishes throughout.”&nbsp;

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=113271 project_image_fid=359206]

The launch of The Signature Collection coincides with the milestone topping out of The Waterline, the first of three residential collections being delivered in the first stage of Harbour Shores.&nbsp;

Residents will also have access to a private pool and other resident-only amenities including a large &nbsp;lagoon pool, social clubhouse, tennis court, gym, yoga and sauna facilities. &nbsp;

Prices for the Sky Homes start from $3.65 million. &nbsp;

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=113271 project_image_fid=290031]

The Signature Collection also features The Residences, an exclusive release of six premium waterfront villas, positioned directly on the 1.2km waterfront boardwalk.&nbsp;

The Residences offer more than 350 sqm of contemporary living with premium finishes throughout and &nbsp;dining spaces that flow seamlessly to the outdoor entertaining area on the ground floor. Each have their own private plunge pool overlooking the water, and a private marina berth.

All villas include two secure car parks and residents have access to the extensive amenities within the broader precinct. Prices start from $3.05 million. &nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=113271 project_image_fid=290030]

Harbour Shores is a resort-style community focused on lifestyle and wellness where neighbourhoods &nbsp;are connected by extensive landscaping, green spaces and pedestrian networks, including a 1.2- kilometre waterfront boardwalk.&nbsp;

Boasting a 6 Star Green Star Communities V1.1 rating, the highest level of sustainability of any project &nbsp;on the Gold Coast, Harbour Shores will deliver more than 2,000 homes over the next decade.&nbsp;

Colliers is marketing Harbour Shores, and has seen significant demand from local owner-occupiers.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=113271]

Lewis Land unveils Harbour Shores’ double-storey sky homes with private marina berths

PERIFA's Rozelle Village in Sydney's Inner West is the first project to receive funding as part of the&nbsp;Minns Labor Government’s Pre-sale Finance Guarantee program, a programme aimed at fast tracking new homes across the state.

More than 225 new apartments, including 59 affordable homes, will now start construction sooner as part of the $285 million Rozelle Village revamp of the derelict former Balmain Leagues Club site on Victoria Road, which received state significant development approval last year under the Infill Affordable Housing pathway.

The mixed-use precinct also includes retail spaces, community facilities, and a public plaza.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=8142 project_image_fid=335]

The Guarantee is supporting 32 affordable homes off the plan, giving developer PERIFA confidence to secure construction finance and deliver much-needed homes in the Inner West.

This arrangement gives the developer time to lock in a community housing provider to purchase and manage the project’s affordable homes, with a guarantee the Government will buy the 32 units if the level of qualifying pre-sale requirements is not met prior to project completion expected in 2028.

Since the launch of the program in October, 31 expressions of interest have been received from developers across the state, with a third of these already invited to submit full applications.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=8142 project_image_fid=325]

In addition to the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/rozelle-village-rozelle-152-victoria-road-rozelle-nsw-2039">Rozelle Village</a> project, over $100 million worth of pre-sale commitment requests have been received and are currently under assessment. If approved, this support will unlock the construction of over 350 new homes across metropolitan Sydney and regional NSW.

Under the Pre-sale Finance Guarantee, the Government may commit to buy, off the plan, up to 50 per cent of homes in approved developments, valued at up to $2 million each. Support can range from $5 million to $50 million per project, the Guarantee then allows developers to achieve commercial construction finance.

Up to $1 billion in pre-sales over the next five years will be supported through the revolving fund, making sure more projects can move from approval to construction.

The challenge of meeting pre-sale requirements is one of the most common issues cited by stakeholders in securing finance, and has been outlined as a key hurdle for industry in the NSW Productivity and Equality Commission’s Review of housing supply challenges and policy options for New South Wales. Only developers and projects that meet strict criteria for credibility, capability, and capacity to deliver are approved and invited to participate in the program.

&nbsp;

Treasurer Daniel Mookhey said the program is a "smart use of the State's balance sheet."

“This is exactly what the $1 billion Pre-sale Finance Guarantee was designed to do - move approved projects from paper to construction," Mookhey said.

“By providing a targeted pre-sale guarantee, we’re giving the market the confidence it needs to secure finance and start construction, without the Government having to spend a dollar upfront."

Minister for Planning and Public Spaces Paul Scully said Rozelle Village is a great example of how Labor's housing reforms and initiatives are working together to deliver great results.

“The Pre-sale Finance Guarantee uses the Government’s strong credit standing to help bring to life prime housing developments, including sites like this one in Rozelle that sat dormant for years. It allows more new homes to be delivered faster, creating jobs, and easing housing pressure for families across NSW.

&nbsp;

“This project was approved under the Infill Affordable Housing Pathway to deliver 59 affordable homes and now, through the Pre-sale Finance Guarantee, we’re making sure those homes are built sooner.

“By removing planning and financial roadblocks, we’re giving developers and lenders certainty, boosting housing supply, and creating vibrant communities where people want to live which means more people in more new homes quicker.”

PERIFA Group Managing Director Fabrizio Perilli said Rozelle Village is set to become the Inner West’s most vibrant, mixed-use precinct catering to the local community and residents.

“The location provides excellent access to local employment and the critical Infrastructure that key workers rely on every day.&nbsp; Strong demand for our development is already evident, with pre-sales for market homes exceeding expectations. As the first developer to be accepted into the NSW Government Pre-Sale Finance Guarantee, we are now able to accelerate construction of these much-needed homes, while working to secure the right Community Housing Provider, ensuring long-term social impact and community benefit.”

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=8142]

Are more homes on the way? NSW Gov backs first project in Pre-Sale Finance Guarantee program

Fresh off completing Pienza Neutral Bay, developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/central-element">Central Element</a> is preparing its next move in the coveted Lower North Shore suburb.&nbsp;

Central Element (CE) has lodged plans for an eight-storey apartment building at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/54-64-barry-street-neutral-bay-nsw-2089">54–64 Barry Street</a>, a 1,659 sqm site just south of Military Road and the Neutral Bay town centre.

The $52 million development will involve the demolition of four detached homes across four lots to deliver 45 apartments, including eight affordable housing units to be managed by Bridge Housing. The mix will comprise six one-bedroom apartments, 24 two-beds, and 15 three-beds. The apartments will sit above three basement levels with 62 car parking spaces and 50 bicycle spaces.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/mhn-design-union">MHN Design Union</a> (MHNDU) has returned as architect following its work on Pienza, again shaping a mid-rise form with a clear street presence. The design features a lower four-storey podium element that responds to surrounding context, with upper levels recessed to reduce perceived bulk. Communal open space is proposed both at ground level and on the rooftop, the latter including an outdoor kitchen and swimming pool.

“The building has been designed with a lower four-storey element and with building materials commensurate with the character of the area,” Beam Planning noted in its submission to the North Sydney Council.

<img alt="Barry Street, Neutral Bay Nsw 2089" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3a28ab3a-b8ba-4476-81cd-e4a8bb84f3a7" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Barry-Street-Neutral-Bay-1327x742.png?VersionId=hlgvxszAWXIHgHtdR5HiwIKiSli2lLZV" />

Bridge Housing will manage the affordable units for a period of 15 years, as required under the Housing SEPP’s incentive provisions.

MHNDU’s design report further highlights the site's strategic location just 250 metres from key bus stops and 1.3 kilometres from North Sydney CBD, positioning it for transit-accessible housing supply. In their planning justification, the design team emphasised the site’s compatibility with emerging local character and scale.

Central Element has a solid apartment pipeline spread all over Sydney. They recently completed&nbsp;Pienza, 37 apartments just 500 metres away from the new project, and are currently building Ethos Chatswood, Ballamac House in Coogee, and Bianca on the harbour in Drummoyne.

They have plans for future projects in Mosman, Bondi Beach, Greenwich, Lavender Bay, along with a tower on the edge of Hyde Park.

First look: Central Element unveils second Neutral Bay apartment project

Consumer Finance

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The last time consumer prices fell by 1.9 per cent over a quarter – that is, over a three month period – was in 1931.
Back then it was the ‘C series index’ rather than the ‘consumer price index’. Just like today, those times – back in the late 1920s and early 1930s – were remarkable, being the time of a global depression. But fortunately policymakers today have responded differently to back then, applying significant fiscal and monetary stimulus to limit the length and severity of the economic downturn.
So prices are tipped to rebound in the current quarter. The last thing anyone wants to see is deflation – a sustained period of falling prices – because that could see the current economic downturn being extended.
Prices fell sharply in the June quarter for a number of reasons – principally, low rents, subsidised child care, free preschool and lower petrol prices. The best guide to underlying prices is the ‘trimmed mean’. This measure shows prices down 0.1 per cent in the quarter to be up 1.2 per cent over the year. So low annual inflation, not deflation.
In the current quarter – the September quarter – consumer prices are expected to lift from the lows. The headline rate of inflation is tipped to lift 1.4 per cent, pushing the annual growth rate up to 0.4 per cent. The annual trimmed mean is expected near 1.4 per cent.
While deflation is not expected to take hold, there is no room for complacency. Consumers should be given every encouragement to keep spending. If consumers start holding off on purchases on the hope of cheaper prices, then we will have a problem – a problem that would require more fiscal and monetary stimulus being applied.
The Reserve Bank has a long-run series on inflation back to 1922. Data can be found here:
<a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/inflation/measures-cpi" target="_blank">https://www.rba.gov.au/inflation/measures-cpi.html</a>
What do the figures show?
Overall result: The Consumer Price Index – the main measure of inflation in Australia – fell by 1.9 per cent in the June quarter (consensus: -2.0 per cent). It was the biggest ever quarterly fall for the CPI (since 1948). The last time consumer prices fell as much (C series index) was in September quarter 1931. In seasonally adjusted terms the CPI fell by 2.0 per cent in the June quarter. The annual rate of headline eased from a 5½-year high of 2.2 per cent to -0.3 per cent – the lowest result since September quarter 1997.
Underlying measures: The Reserve Bank monitors three measures to derive the underlying inflation rate. The trimmed mean fell by 0.1 per cent in the June quarter (1.2 per cent annual); the weighted median rose by 0.1 per cent (1.3 per cent annual) and the CPI less volatile items fell by 1.3 per cent (0.4 per cent annual). Overall, underlying inflation was flat in the quarter and rose by around 1.25 per cent over the year. Market goods and services less volatile items rose by 0.3 per cent in the quarter to be up 2.0 per cent on the year.
Capital cities: Sydney -2.3 per cent in the quarter (annual -1.0 per cent); Melbourne -0.8 per cent (+0.3 per cent); Brisbane -2.2 per cent (-1.0 per cent); Adelaide -1.0 per cent (+0.8 per cent); Perth -1.2 per cent (+0.1 per cent); Hobart -1.4 per cent (+1.3 per cent); Darwin -2.5 per cent (-1.8 per cent); Canberra -2.3 per cent (-0.6 per cent).
Main Negative Contributors:
The most significant price falls in the June quarter were child care (-95.0 per cent), automotive fuel (-19.3 per cent), preschool and primary education (-16.2 per cent) and rents (-1.3 per cent).
Child care: The ABS reported, “A fall of 95.0 per cent in child care was the main contributor due to free child care during the quarter. Excluding the impact of child care, this group would have risen 2.3 per cent.”
Housing: The ABS said, “Rents recorded the first quarterly fall since the series commenced in 1972. Weak rental market conditions as a result of COVID-19 lockdown restrictions and rising vacancy rates saw rents fall in most capital cities in the June quarter.”
The 2.5 per cent “fall in electricity was mainly driven by utility rebates in some capital cities to support households from the impacts of COVID-19.”
Automotive fuel: The ABS said, the “19.3 per cent fall in automotive fuel (was) due to low global demand resulting from COVID-19 restrictions. Automotive fuel fell in April (-15.9 per cent), and rose in May (+0.9 per cent) and June (+9.2 per cent)”
Education: The ABS said, “A fall of 16.2 per cent in preschool and primary education was the main contributor driven by free before and after school care and free preschool for term 2 in NSW, Victoria and Queensland.”
Food: the ABS said, “Falls of 1.4 per cent in vegetables and 1.1 per cent in beef and veal partially offset the rise this quarter. Improved weather conditions saw a range of fresh produce return to typical seasonal prices, while mince meat saw temporary discounts.”
Main Positive Contributors:
The most significant offsetting price falls June quarter were tobacco (+2.7 per cent), other non-durable household products (+4.5 per cent) and furniture (+3.8 per cent).
Furnishings, household equipment and services: the ABS said, “Rises of 3.8 per cent in furniture and 3.0 per cent in major household appliances partially offset the fall, due to strong demand for products such as home office furniture and fridges and freezers.”
Rises of 4.5 per cent in other non-durable household products and 6.2 per cent in cleaning and maintenance products were seen due to a reduction in specials and genuine price increases for toilet paper and cleaning products.
Recreation and culture: the ABS said, “A rise of 1.8 per cent in Audio, visual and computing equipment was due to strong demand for products such as TVs. This was the first quarterly rise in this series since 2015.”
Health: the ABS said, “falls of 0.5 per cent in pharmaceutical products and 0.2 per cent in medical and hospital services were the main contributors. The fall in pharmaceutical products was due to increases in the proportion of consumers who qualify for subsidies under the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS). The fall in medical and hospital services was due to a combination of increased bulk billing as well as a freeze on private health insurance premiums, which typically rise on 1 April each year.”
Food: the ABS said, “Rises of 0.8 per cent in take-away and fast foods, 3.8 per cent in fish and other seafood, 2.0 per cent in water, soft drinks and juices, and 6.1 per cent in other cereal products, were the main contributors this quarter. High demand saw a reduction in specials and genuine price increases on a range of long-life products such as canned tuna and canned meat, rice and pasta.” 
Prices of tradables: The tradables component of the ‘All groups CPI’ fell by 1.3 per cent in the June quarter to be down 0.5 per cent over the year.
Tradable goods component fell 1.3 per cent mainly due to automotive fuel (-19.3 per cent).
Tradable services component fell 1.9 per cent due to international holiday travel and accommodation (-2.0 per cent).
Prices of non-tradables: The non-tradables component of the ‘All groups CPI’ fell by 2.3 per cent in the June quarter to be down 0.2 per cent over the year.
Non-tradable goods component rose 0.2 per cent, due to tobacco products (+2.7 per cent).
Non-tradable services component fell 3.6 per cent, due to child care (-95.0 per cent).
In seasonally adjusted terms, the tradables component of the ‘All groups CPI’ fell 1.3 per cent and the non-tradables component fell 2.2 per cent.
Tradable goods are those items whose prices are largely determined on the world market. Non-tradable prices are more affected by domestic economic conditions.
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
The Reserve Bank sets interest rates with a view of keeping inflation between 2-3 per cent over an economic cycle. Inflation is well below the lower bound of the range at present. And the expectation is that inflation will remain contained for some time. As a result, interest rates will spend an extended period at generational lows.
Super-low rates is a great result for borrowers. But it represents on-going challenges for savers. The added complication that listed companies are expected to slash dividends when they report over the next month.
Businesses that want an inflation guide for setting selling prices or rents are best advised to use the ‘trimmed mean’. The Reserve Bank expects annual trimmed inflation to be 1.25-1.50 per cent through to mid-2022.
Does it feel like deflation? Does it feel like the biggest quarterly fall in prices in 89 years? If you were outfitting your home office with furniture and computers, probably not. If you are renting, with children in child care, and paid electricity bills and health insurance premiums in the past quarter, then you probably noticed a big drop in outlays. Similarly if you drive a fair bit – petrol prices slumped in the quarter.
But apart from Victoria, expect more ‘normal’ growth of consumer prices in the months ahead. Petrol prices have certainly lifted and the period of free child care has come to an end.
The inflation measure ‘market goods and services, excluding volatile items’, rose 0.3 per cent in the quarter and 2 per cent over the year. This measure gives a better sense of ‘normal’.
CRAIG JAMES is the Chief Economist at CommSec
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cjames-5S2v74qSNK

CPI fell for the first time since 1931: CommSec's Craig James

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The Consumer Price Index – the main measure of inflation in Australia – rose by 0.6 per cent in the June quarter, above expectations.
In seasonally adjusted terms the CPI rose by 0.7 per cent. The annual rate of headline inflation lifted from 1.3 per cent to 1.6 per cent. The Aussie dollar rose by almost a quarter of a cent against the greenback in response.
The Reserve Bank monitors three measures to derive the underlying inflation rate. The trimmed mean rose by 0.4 per cent in the June quarter (1.6 per cent annual); the weighted median rose by 0.4 per cent (1.2 per cent annual) and the CPI less volatile items rose by 0.3 per cent (1.5 per cent annual). Overall, underlying inflation rose by around 0.4 per cent in the quarter and by around 1.5 per cent over the year. Market goods and services less volatile items rose by 0.5 per cent in the quarter to be up 1.6 per cent on the year.
Automotive fuel (+10.2 per cent), medical and hospital services (+2.6 per cent) and international holiday travel (+2.7%) recorded the most significant price gains. The most significant offsetting price falls this quarter are fruit (-4.1 per cent), electricity (-1.7 per cent) and domestic travel (-1.5 per cent).
<h1>What does it all mean?</h1>
- Inflation remains contained. But we can never claim that the inflation dragon is dead, rather resting. Higher fuel prices can be passed through in terms of higher taxi and public transport fares as well as freight and courier prices. Weather events like the current drought in eastern Australia can push up prices of supermarket goods as well as café, restaurant and takeaway food prices. The high activity in infrastructure building can put upward pressure on construction sector wages, in turn lifting prices of newly-built dwellings.   
- Clearly fuel and food prices are volatile. Fuel lifted 10.2 per cent in the June quarter, but over the past month, petrol is down by 3 per cent.
- If we are looking where future inflation pulses can come from, fuel prices, weather events, administered prices (such as utilities and child care), the exchange rate, construction and wages are the things to watch.
- Headline inflation has averaged 1.7 per cent over the past five years and averaged 2.1 per cent over the past decade. So clearly inflation remains below ‘normal’ levels and certainly still below the Reserve Bank’s 2-3 per cent target band.
- The key underlying measures of inflation rose 0.3-0.5 per cent in the June quarter. Even if the latest results were annualised, inflation would be below the Reserve Bank’s 2-3 per cent inflation target.
- Wages are still growing at a slower pace than in the past. But wages are outpacing prices and have lifted from lows. And businesses can’t absorb higher costs forever. The next wage price index data is released on August 14. 
- The Reserve Bank has cut rates in quick succession. At the same time there are indications that economic momentum has improved since the election. The US Federal Reserve is poised to cut rates. So it is opportune that the RBA stays on the interest rate sidelines for now. But with inflation below the target band and likely to remain low, the Reserve Bank can cut rates further if it believed it would be successful in generating faster economic growth, higher wages and lower unemployment. 
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CRAIG JAMES is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>. 
 
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Inflation dragon still dozing: CommSec

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Australia's Consumer Price Index has risen 0.6 percent over the June quarter, slightly higher than expectations. 
The biggest drivers in the uptick of prices was fuel, up 10 percent.
International holiday travel and accomodation was up 2.7 percent, medical and hospital services was up 2.6 percent and tobacco was up 2.4 percent.
On the flip side, prices for fruit and vegetables were down 2.8 percent), domestic holiday travel and accommodation was down 1.5 per cent and electricity was down -1.7 per cent over the quarter.
"Inflation remains contained," noted CommSec chief economist Craig James.
"But we can never claim that the inflation dragon is dead, rather resting. 
"Higher fuel prices can be passed through in terms of higher taxi and public transport fares as well as freight and courier prices. 
"Weather events like the current drought in eastern Australia can push up prices of supermarket goods as well as café, restaurant and takeaway food prices. 
"The high activity in infrastructure building can put upward pressure on construction sector wages, in turn lifting prices of newly-built dwellings,' James advised.   
ABS chief economist Bruce Hockman said automotive fuel price rise of 10.2 per cent in the June quarter 2019 contributed to half of the 0.6 per cent rise this quarter.
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"Automotive fuel prices returned to levels recorded in late 2018 after falling 8.7 per cent in the March quarter 2019." The CPI rose 1.6 per cent through the year to the June quarter 2019, after increasing 1.3 per cent through the year to the March quarter. 
"Annual growth in the CPI continues to be subdued due to falls in a number of administered prices. Through the year, utility prices have fallen 0.2 per cent and child care has fallen 7.9 per cent following the introduction of the Child Care Subsidy package in July 2018."
Westpac had been <a href="/expert-insights/investing/cpi-forecast-to-rise-for-june-quarter-westpacs-justin-smirk">forecasting a 0.5% rise</a> in the June quarter CPI, taking the annual pace to a 1.5% rise from 1.3%.
"The June quarter tends to be a seasonally soft quarter with the ABS projecting a seasonal factor of 0.2ppt increase," Westpac's Justin Smirk said.
IFM economist Alex Joiner says the figures were a slight upside surprise, however it is inline with expectations on core measures.
ANU professor Ben Phillips says CPI for child care shows that since 2002 prices after subsidies up 69% or 14% (real terms). About -6% relative to incomes.
Darwin saw the biggest increase in inflation, up 0.8 percent, driven by a 14 percent rise in domestic holiday, travel and accomodation prices.
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

CPI rises 0.6 percent in June quarter 

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The main measure of consumer prices in Australia – and a key guide to the cost of living for families – is the Consumer Price Index. In the March quarter the CPI was unchanged in original terms, the lowest result in three years. And the annual rate of inflation eased from 1.8 per cent to a 2½-year low of 1.3 per cent. 
While the cost of living has slowed markedly in the latest quarter, this is a trend that has been operating for quite some time. Over the last five years, annual inflation has averaged just 1.74 per cent – the lowest equivalent result since late in 1963. If 20-year averages are used, you would have to go back to 1952 to find a lower outcome. 
While wage growth has slowed over time, so has inflation – and to a greater extent. Aussie consumers have rarely had it better. 
But while the CPI provides a broad gauge of the cost of living, in practice living costs will vary across demographic groups and across regional areas. It all depends on the relative importance of the good or service in your household budget. Clearly younger people purchase markedly different items to those purchases by aged pensioners. 
The other important point is that living costs should be tracked in relation to incomes. For instance if wages are growing at a faster rate than prices, purchasing power will have increased, and, more broadly, the standard of living. Of course the standard of living is more subjective and may include things like traffic congestion and access to medical services. 
The other complication is the time period for measurement. The cost of living may have improved in recent times, but that may have occurred after a long period where living costs were soaring. 
The bottom line is that purchasing power has continued to improve for Australian consumers. For average wage earners, wage growth has exceeded growth of prices over the past five years and over the past decade. Quite remarkably the prices of 26 of the 87 expenditure class items tracked by the ABS are actually lower now than a decade ago. Only 16 of 87 expenditure class items have recorded faster price increases than wages over the past decade.
Living cost indexes 
The Consumer Price Index measures “price inflation for the household sector as a whole”. But to measure purchasing power for different groups in the economy, the Bureau of Statistics compiles living cost indexes. The March quarter figures were issued yesterday. The living cost index (LCI) changes were: employees (flat; +1.4 per cent annual); aged pensioners (up 0.3 per cent; +1.4 per cent annual); self-funded retirees (down 0.2 per cent; +1.6 per cent annual); ‘other government transfer recipient households’ (up 0.2 per cent; +1.6 per cent annual); pensioner and beneficiary households (up 0.3 per cent; +1.6 per cent annual). 
Over the past decade, arguably employee households have had more to celebrate than other groups. The LCI for employees lifted by only 19.3 per cent, followed by self-funded retirees (up 22.8 per cent); age pensioners (up 23.8 per cent), pensioner and beneficiary households (up 25.1 per cent) and ‘other government transfer recipient households’ (up 26.1 per cent).
Prices and incomes
Over the past five years the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 8.3 per cent. And over the past decade, prices rose by 23.4 per cent. The main measure of wages is the wage price index. But data on the WPI is only available to December 2018. Still, the WPI has grown at a faster rate than prices over the past five and ten years. Wages have grown by 11.3 per cent over the past five years and grown by 30.9 per cent over the past decade. 
Using a different measure of wages – average ordinary time earnings for full-time adults – wages rose 11.7 per cent in the five years to November (December quarter) and lifted 38.6 per cent over the past decade. 
The maximum standard rate of the aged pension has lifted by 10 per cent over the past five years and increased by 53 per cent over the decade. The maximum partnered rate of the aged pension increase by 10 per cent over the past five years and increased by 38 per cent over the past decade. 
Cheaper prices 
Most Aussie consumers would be surprised at the breadth and depth of goods that have become cheaper over time. Together with items like clothes, shoes and electrical goods, cars are cheaper than a decade ago – down by over 9 per cent. And then there are staples like eggs (-0.8 per cent), bread (-0.9 per cent) and milk (-14.4 per cent).
Clothing, footwear, cars and a raft of electrical goods have become cheaper over time. In part, this is a global trend, reflecting more efficient production techniques for large scale manufactured goods. Consumers across the globe have benefitted from the greater availability of higher-quality/lower-priced goods. 
Internet purchases have also proven beneficial. Consumers can buy goods whenever they want and wherever they are. In economics, this can be explained as an expansion of supply or choice of goods – putting downward pressure on selling prices. Dearer prices
 When people bemoan the rising cost of living, they are primarily thinking about utilities, child care, education and medical services such as health insurance. The prices of these items have lifted notably over both the last five years and the past decade. 
The good news is that governments have been successful in reducing utility prices with both gas and electricity now cheaper than a year ago. Child care costs have also fallen over the past year. But health insurance fees have lifted by 4.1 per cent over the past year, well ahead of the rate of inflation.
What are the implications?
The conventional wisdom is that the cost of living is soaring. The reality is that the cost of living is growing at the slowest pace in a generation. Now while the cost of living is rising as it always does in a growing economy, annual inflation has actually eased – not just in the past five years but on far longer timeframes.
Our parents and grandparents would been accustomed to inflation rates near 2 per cent and indeed current-day inflation is more akin to that seen in the 1950s and 1960s. 
A raft of goods and services has become cheaper – not just over the past year but many items are cheaper than a decade ago. Thank technology, thank the efficiency and productivity of businesses across the globe.
While price growth has eased, so has wage growth. In a globalised world, businesses are finding it harder to lift prices of their finished products or services. So it is harder for companies to give out pay increases similar to those awarded a decade ago.
Importantly, incomes are growing at a faster pace than prices, so many goods and services have become more affordable.
In the globalised world, businesses needs to stand out. That is, businesses need to find that point of difference with their competitors or their ‘uncommon offering’. Aussie businesses not only can win more market share at home, they can tap into the global marketplace.
Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>.
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Inflation is at a 55-year low: CommSec's Craig James

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/83211/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
A contradiction is emerging between how consumers should be feeling and what the heads of companies expect them to do.
What we know about low wages growth and underemployment seems to suggest households would be tightening the purse strings but the sentiment of business leaders is very positive in sectors relying on consumer spending.
Wages are struggling to keep pace with the prices of the things we buy and average hours worked (per worker) have also been trending down or flat at best. This is not a picture of robust consumer finances.
On top of this retailers are facing the threat of competition from US giant Amazon. Yet according to our analysis of the outlook of leaders of Australia’s ASX 200 companies, positivity has increased.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/01/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-01%20at%208.36.49%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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The sentiment of business leaders has remained positive and improved over the past 12 months according to our analysis. The “polarity” score, which measures whether the sentiment is positive or negative, has increased from 0.11 to 0.15 (a statistically significant improvement).
We also looked at how subjective these statements were and found there’s been no significant increase in how opinionated these statements are.
Our findings also mirror other business confidence surveys and even the Reserve Bank of Australia’s own outlook, which also paints a buoyant picture. The RBA expects growth in the economy to strengthen gradually to be around 3% in the first half of 2018. The RBA expects wage growth to gradually pick up over the next year or two and for average hours worked to increase somewhat.
Similarly, the Westpac-AusChamber Actual Composite index strengthened in June 2017, rising 1.8 points to 65.0. This factored in a strengthening in the labour market, as manufacturing firms plan to hire more workers and manufacturing wages rise. And the NAB business confidence survey also reveals that business conditions and confidence are improving.
The positive outlook for economic growth according to the RBA is driven by resource exports notably iron ore and liquid natural gas (LNG) production, household consumption including retail sales, and non-mining business investment. The RBA also expects wage growth to soon pick up.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/01/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-01%20at%208.37.59%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/09/01/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-01%20at%208.37.59%20AM.png" alt=""> 
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<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/09/01/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-01%20at%208.39.08%20AM.png" alt=""> 
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These drivers are reflected in our sentiment analysis. Business leaders in ASX categories relying on household spending, have stronger than average positive outlook on the future, with an average score of 0.18.
This was led by businesses like JB HiFi (0.41), TabCorp (0.23) and Flight Centre (0.18); and also consumer staples led by Ardent Leisure (0.50), Treasury Wine Estates (0.38) and Coca-Cola Amatil (0.18).
The outlook for manufacturing is also positive due to a range of factors such as infrastructure spending by governments, stronger world growth, and improved international competitiveness due to a lower currency, commercial construction and home building, according to the Westpac-AusChamber index. This is supported by our analysis which found stronger than average sentiment from business leaders in the materials sector (0.17), through companies such as Amcor (0.26).
But the outlook isn’t all positive among our business leaders. Sentiment was weaker than average in utilities (0.07) led by AGL (-0.03). This is hardly surprising given the high uncertainty around energy policy – AGL for example owns coal-fired power plants. Also sentiment was somewhat weaker (0.13) than average among industrial company leaders, the sentiment in Qantas’ outlook was negative (-0.03) and property/real estate company Lend Lease (0.09) was also weak.
Perhaps the gloomy slow wage growth and underemployment will catch up to the more positive sentiment on consumer goods and services in company reports. Or this contradiction might simply reflect the high uncertainty in the global environment.
Consumers certainly seem a little confused: the weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer confidence Index ticked up slightly last week but has jumped around in recent months. Certainly the positive sentiment from business leaders about consumer spending we see in company reports seems optimistic.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/ross-guest-13155" target="_blank">Ross Guest </a>is Professor of Economics and National Senior Teaching Fellow, Griffith University.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/ben-hachey-337155" target="_blank">Ben Hachey is</a> Honorary Associate, School of Information Technologies, University of Sydney.
Both are authors for <a href="https://theconversation.com/au" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>.
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