Roseville is poised for a wave of new apartment development following the NSW Government's rezoning of land around Roseville Station under its Transport Oriented Development program.

The new planning controls have unlocked significant development potential within walking distance of the station, with a number of sites expected to be amalgamated and redeveloped in the coming years as developers seek to take advantage of the increased density allowances.

One of the more restrained developments in the precinct, and set among the first to be delivered having commenced well before the recent changes, is Hyecorp's Juliet. The boutique apartment project is already well under construction and remains on track to welcome residents by the end of the year, offering a markedly different proposition to many of the larger-scale developments now likely to emerge across the suburb.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278194]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/juliet-roseville-64-pacific-highway-roseville-nsw-2069">Juliet</a> will comprise just&nbsp;34 one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments opposite Roseville Station. For Hyecorp, which has delivered projects across Sydney's Lower North Shore for more than three decades, Roseville presented a rare opportunity to address a growing gap in the market.

"<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/roseville-nsw-2069">Roseville</a> has long been one of the North Shore's most tightly held and desirable suburbs, offering a unique combination of village charm, established greenery, excellent transport connections, and proximity to some of Sydney's best schools and lifestyle amenities," Hyecorp said.

"We recognised a growing demand from local homeowners seeking to downsize without leaving the community they have built their lives around. The location presented a rare opportunity to create homes that cater specifically to that buyer profile."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278196]

The six-level development has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/pbd-architects">PBD Architects</a> as a collection of residences that feel more like homes than apartments. The brief centred generous floorplans, abundant natural light, quality finishes, and strong connections to outdoor space.

PBD Architects drew inspiration from Roseville's established garden suburb character, creating a building that sits comfortably within its surroundings rather than dominating them. The architecture incorporates natural materials, soft forms, layered landscaping, expansive balconies, and generous setbacks to strengthen the connection between residents and the suburb's leafy environment.

"The focus was on designing spacious, house-like residences for discerning owner-occupiers and downsizers who wanted to remain on the North Shore without compromising on comfort, privacy, or design," PBD said.&nbsp;

"Every apartment was to feel considered, timeless, and highly functional."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278195]

Inside, residences feature engineered timber flooring, stone kitchen benchtops and splashbacks, integrated Fisher &amp; Paykel appliances, ducted air conditioning, and large outdoor entertaining areas designed to take advantage of district and treetop views.

Residents will also have access to a rooftop barbecue and lounge area, alongside practical amenities including parcel lockers, EV charging capability, bicycle storage, a dog wash bay, and a basement car wash facility.

The majority of purchasers so far have been local owner-occupiers from Roseville, Lindfield, Chatswood, Killara, and the broader Upper North Shore, many of whom are transitioning from larger family homes.

"Buyers are looking for spacious, house-like apartments that allow them to downsize without feeling like they are sacrificing comfort or functionality," Hyecorp noted.

"They value large kitchens, generous living areas, ample storage, quality finishes, secure parking, lift access, and low-maintenance living."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278204]

Juliet sits directly opposite Roseville Train Station and within walking distance of Roseville Village, while Chatswood's retail and dining precinct is only minutes away. The development is also surrounded by some of Sydney's most established schools, including Roseville College, Ravenswood, Pymble Ladies' College, and Knox Grammar, as well as nearby parklands and golf courses.

Juliet is currently more than 75 per cent sold ahead of its anticipated completion in late 2026.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=7395]

Joel Robinson

Juliet to sit quietly amid Roseville apartment boom

Sherpa Property Group has unveiled the third instalment of its Flourish series, securing full approval for the two-tower, $500 million Flourish Soleira development in Palm Beach.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-1150-1154-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a> will rise from a prominent site in the commercial heart of Palm Beach, the long-time home of Cash Converters and a range of local retailers.

The project will introduce a new retail and dining precinct at ground level, beneath 286 apartments.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370959]

“We’re very committed to not only providing affordable residential offerings that are much needed in Palm Beach, but also delivering a vibrant new commercial heart that complements the extraordinary growth of the southern Gold Coast,” Sherpa Property Group founder Christie Leet said.

The development will sit under Sherpa's Flourish brand, which is aimed at providing a pathway into the beachside suburb for locals, first-home buyers and downsizers. In a move designed to assist first-home buyers entering the market, Sherpa has reserved all one and two-bedroom, one-bathroom apartments exclusively for eligible first-home buyers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370964]

“Our vision through Flourish is to create a vibrant retail and lifestyle focal point within the Palm Beach centre zone, delivering thriving communities underpinned by lifestyle-rich locations,” Leet said.

“So far, Flourish has been an incredible success, and we hope to carry this momentum as we progress the next two Flourish projects in Palm Beach.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=371430]

Located across 1150-1164 Gold Coast Highway and 3 Sixth Avenue, the development will comprise two towers. The northern tower will deliver 154 apartments, while the southern tower will add a further 132 residences, helping address ongoing demand for new apartments in the tightly held coastal suburb.

Flourish Soleira will also feature the most extensive rooftop amenity offering ever delivered in Palm Beach.

The two towers will be connected by a skybridge, with residents gaining access to a rooftop recreation deck featuring a full-width swimming pool, hot and cold plunge pools, wellness spaces, a gymnasium, private dining facilities, massage treatment rooms, barbecue areas, a basketball court, golf simulator, indoor and outdoor dining spaces, sun lounges and extensive landscaping.

LPS Group is expected to start construction later this year.

Sherpa is already well advanced on construction of its debut Flourish project, Flourish Amargo, located just around the corner from Soleira. Meanwhile, Flourish Oasis, positioned opposite Amargo, recently commenced construction and has nearly sold out its collection of 47 apartments.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150017]

Sherpa unveils $500m mixed-use Palm Beach precinct, Flourish Soleira

Are mortgage holders set to get a reprieve from the RBA in 2026?

Big Four bank NAB believes so. They are now expecting the next move from the RBA to be a cut, rather than a hike, which they had pencilled in for August. They are unsure of the timing of the cut however, they note in their latest&nbsp;NAB Economics RBA Watch.

NAB Chief Economist, Dr Sally Auld, said recent data suggests the economy has lost momentum and the outlook for rates has shifted, noting that the broader economic backdrop has changed since earlier in the year.

“The next move in the cash rate is likely to be down, but the timing is uncertain," Dr Auld said.

"In February, growth was above trend, the economy was operating above capacity and there was uncertainty over the restrictiveness of rates. None of these conditions exist today,” she outlined.

Dr Auld said recent data pointed to softer momentum across the economy while acknowledging that at the same time, uncertainty remains a key feature of the outlook.

“Both Q1 GDP data and the NAB business survey suggest momentum in the economy has slowed, meaning that growth has likely peaked for the cycle. That said, we are cognisant there is still considerable uncertainty around the outlook, both with respect to activity and inflation.”

Dr Auld said inflation risks and labour market outcomes would be important to watch.

“On the prices side, we are still forecasting above target core inflation through to mid-2027. Margins will compress and weaker labour market outcomes are a risk.”

She said tighter financial conditions are expected to weigh on housing and activity.

“Tighter financial conditions will be reflected in a slowing in house price growth and housing credit growth. In summary, we have greater conviction that the next move in rates is down, but less conviction on the timing.”

Mortgage relief? NAB forecasts RBA rate cut, not hike, after softer economic conditions

A local downsizer has splashed $6.5 million on a penthouse in Perifa's Alex &amp; Willow development in Crows Nest. 
&nbsp; 
The purchaser sold their long-held family home in the area before embarking on a six-month search for the right apartment. After inspecting a range of options across the Lower North Shore, the buyer returned to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/alex-willow-crows-nest-82-90-alexander-street-crows-nest-nsw-2065">Alex &amp; Willow</a>. 
&nbsp; 
The buyer profile reflects the project’s broader purchaser mix. <a>Alex &amp; Willow</a> has attracted predominantly local downsizers looking to transition from larger homes without compromising on space or quality, alongside a smaller cohort of upsizers and investors drawn to the project’s location and design credentials. 
&nbsp; 
The milestone sale comes as the project, developed by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/perifa">Perifa</a>&nbsp;and delivered by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/versatile-made-construction">Versatile Construction</a>, both part of Versatile Group, reaches 60 per cent sold.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6680 project_image_fid=371325] 
&nbsp; 
Eddie Mansour, Managing Partner of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/ray-white-projects">Ray White Projects</a>, said the result demonstrates not only a headline price but also depth of demand. 
&nbsp; 
“This is an exceptional outcome and a clear reflection of sustained buyer demand for premium, well-located downsizer product,” Mansour said.

“We’re seeing a consistent pattern of local homeowners selling family residences and reinvesting into high-quality apartments that allow them to remain within their community. Alex &amp; Willow has resonated strongly with this group because it offers genuine scale, thoughtful design and immediate proximity to the village.” 
&nbsp; 
The sale reflects a broader and consistent trend of local downsizers actively seeking high-quality, low-maintenance residences close to established village centres. Agents report that demand for this product type has remained resilient, particularly where developments offer a rare combination of scale, design quality and walkable amenity. 
&nbsp;&nbsp; 
Fabrizio Perilli, Managing Director of Perifa and Versatile Group, said the sale marks a defining moment for the project. 
&nbsp; 
“The penthouse sale is a strong endorsement of the quality we have delivered, alongside our partners, and the clear demand from local downsizers for premium, boutique residences in this location,” Perilli said.&nbsp; 
&nbsp; 
“Most importantly, we’re proud to see the Alex &amp; Willow community beginning to take shape. As we move closer to completion, we’re looking forward to welcoming residents and seeing the project come to life.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6680 project_image_fid=338516] 
&nbsp; 
Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/nettletontribe">Nettleton Tribe</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/richards-stanisich">Richards Stanisich</a>, Alex &amp; Willow is a boutique collection of generously sized two- and three-bedroom residences in the heart of Crows Nest village.&nbsp;

Completion is slated for early 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=6680]

Alex & Willow, Crows Nest penthouse sells off the plan for $6.5 million

Fresh from launching the first stage of its Wollongong precinct, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/keira-place-wollongong-120-122-smith-street-wollongong-nsw-2500">Keira Place</a>, builder-developer Urban Property Group has unveiled plans for the next phase of the masterplanned community.

Now on public exhibition through the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority pathway is a State Significant Development Application for a further 657 homes on the prominent gateway site opposite Beaton Park.

The proposal comprises three buildings, including two build-to-sell towers rising 25 and 30 storeys, delivering 391 apartments, alongside a 12-storey co-living building with 266 residences, making it one of the largest co-living proposals currently planned in regional New South Wales.

Of the apartments proposed in the build-to-sell towers, the majority, 310, are two-bedroom dwellings. The balance comprises 44 one-bedroom apartments and 37 three-bedroom residences. Apartment sizes range from around 50 sqm for one-bedroom homes to approximately 90 sqm for three-bedroom apartments.

<img alt="Smith St" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="19347059-1612-41a0-9c74-b86a657237f8" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-10%20at%2010.02.18%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sWXnaCcA.cIC6N8YT1dg5pJ2e1V3Z6z7" />

The submission says the proposal has evolved significantly from its original Housing Delivery Authority application following extensive consultation with the State Design Review Panel and Wollongong City Council.

The final scheme has been designed to align with the emerging vision for the Flinders Street Precinct, an area identified by Council as a future high-density mixed-use neighbourhood capable of accommodating substantial housing growth close to transport, employment and community infrastructure.

According to the design report prepared by COX Architecture, the development aims to "deliver a built outcome consistent with the future character of the Wollongong CBD while responding to the site's unique constraints and opportunities."

"Our vision for the next phase of the site evolution in Wollongong is grounded in three design pillars that guide the design response: place, natural environment and celebration," COX said.

"Inspired by its surroundings and grounded in the stories of place on Wodi Wodi Country, the design proposal acknowledges the established character of its setting while creating a unique and timeless identity that sits harmoniously within it.

"The design proposal responds to its specific site conditions, acknowledging the vegetation, climate, wind conditions and solar access of the site."

The architecture responds directly to the site's position between Wollongong's urban core and its natural landscape setting.

COX identified views towards Mount Keira and the Illawarra Escarpment as defining features of the site, while the upper levels of the towers will also capture expansive views across the city and out to the Pacific Ocean.

The design team has positioned the tallest buildings closer to the rail corridor, where overshadowing impacts can be better managed while establishing a landmark built form on the northern approach into the city.

<img alt="Smith St" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="79580d5b-500c-4ebf-9629-797146a4a694" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-10%20at%209.51.59%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=WbTB1EKSG.KDfsfz0F3wp1QVa2oCMGR5" />

Urban Property Group secured the 11,000 sqm Smith Street site in 2022 and has since progressed plans for the broader Keira Place precinct.

Construction recently commenced on the first stage of Keira Place, which will deliver 150 apartments across two residential buildings, including 27 affordable housing apartments and 18 specialist disability accommodation dwellings, alongside activated ground-floor retail and commercial space.

Urban Co-CEO Patrick Elias said the commencement of construction marked a significant milestone for Wollongong and reflected the developer's long-term commitment to regional cities.

"Today's groundbreaking is about turning approvals into homes and moving quickly to deliver much-needed housing in Wollongong's city centre," Elias said.

"Keira Place will provide a diverse mix of homes close to jobs, transport and services, while setting a high benchmark for quality, durability and consumer protection."

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/groundbreaking-marks-start-of-construction-at-keira-place-in-wollongong-cbd">Groundbreaking marks start of construction at Keira Place in Wollongong CBD</a>

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

Urban Property Group unveils trio of towers for next stage of new Wollongong precinct, Keira Place

Consumer Finance

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The last time consumer prices fell by 1.9 per cent over a quarter – that is, over a three month period – was in 1931.
Back then it was the ‘C series index’ rather than the ‘consumer price index’. Just like today, those times – back in the late 1920s and early 1930s – were remarkable, being the time of a global depression. But fortunately policymakers today have responded differently to back then, applying significant fiscal and monetary stimulus to limit the length and severity of the economic downturn.
So prices are tipped to rebound in the current quarter. The last thing anyone wants to see is deflation – a sustained period of falling prices – because that could see the current economic downturn being extended.
Prices fell sharply in the June quarter for a number of reasons – principally, low rents, subsidised child care, free preschool and lower petrol prices. The best guide to underlying prices is the ‘trimmed mean’. This measure shows prices down 0.1 per cent in the quarter to be up 1.2 per cent over the year. So low annual inflation, not deflation.
In the current quarter – the September quarter – consumer prices are expected to lift from the lows. The headline rate of inflation is tipped to lift 1.4 per cent, pushing the annual growth rate up to 0.4 per cent. The annual trimmed mean is expected near 1.4 per cent.
While deflation is not expected to take hold, there is no room for complacency. Consumers should be given every encouragement to keep spending. If consumers start holding off on purchases on the hope of cheaper prices, then we will have a problem – a problem that would require more fiscal and monetary stimulus being applied.
The Reserve Bank has a long-run series on inflation back to 1922. Data can be found here:
<a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/inflation/measures-cpi" target="_blank">https://www.rba.gov.au/inflation/measures-cpi.html</a>
What do the figures show?
Overall result: The Consumer Price Index – the main measure of inflation in Australia – fell by 1.9 per cent in the June quarter (consensus: -2.0 per cent). It was the biggest ever quarterly fall for the CPI (since 1948). The last time consumer prices fell as much (C series index) was in September quarter 1931. In seasonally adjusted terms the CPI fell by 2.0 per cent in the June quarter. The annual rate of headline eased from a 5½-year high of 2.2 per cent to -0.3 per cent – the lowest result since September quarter 1997.
Underlying measures: The Reserve Bank monitors three measures to derive the underlying inflation rate. The trimmed mean fell by 0.1 per cent in the June quarter (1.2 per cent annual); the weighted median rose by 0.1 per cent (1.3 per cent annual) and the CPI less volatile items fell by 1.3 per cent (0.4 per cent annual). Overall, underlying inflation was flat in the quarter and rose by around 1.25 per cent over the year. Market goods and services less volatile items rose by 0.3 per cent in the quarter to be up 2.0 per cent on the year.
Capital cities: Sydney -2.3 per cent in the quarter (annual -1.0 per cent); Melbourne -0.8 per cent (+0.3 per cent); Brisbane -2.2 per cent (-1.0 per cent); Adelaide -1.0 per cent (+0.8 per cent); Perth -1.2 per cent (+0.1 per cent); Hobart -1.4 per cent (+1.3 per cent); Darwin -2.5 per cent (-1.8 per cent); Canberra -2.3 per cent (-0.6 per cent).
Main Negative Contributors:
The most significant price falls in the June quarter were child care (-95.0 per cent), automotive fuel (-19.3 per cent), preschool and primary education (-16.2 per cent) and rents (-1.3 per cent).
Child care: The ABS reported, “A fall of 95.0 per cent in child care was the main contributor due to free child care during the quarter. Excluding the impact of child care, this group would have risen 2.3 per cent.”
Housing: The ABS said, “Rents recorded the first quarterly fall since the series commenced in 1972. Weak rental market conditions as a result of COVID-19 lockdown restrictions and rising vacancy rates saw rents fall in most capital cities in the June quarter.”
The 2.5 per cent “fall in electricity was mainly driven by utility rebates in some capital cities to support households from the impacts of COVID-19.”
Automotive fuel: The ABS said, the “19.3 per cent fall in automotive fuel (was) due to low global demand resulting from COVID-19 restrictions. Automotive fuel fell in April (-15.9 per cent), and rose in May (+0.9 per cent) and June (+9.2 per cent)”
Education: The ABS said, “A fall of 16.2 per cent in preschool and primary education was the main contributor driven by free before and after school care and free preschool for term 2 in NSW, Victoria and Queensland.”
Food: the ABS said, “Falls of 1.4 per cent in vegetables and 1.1 per cent in beef and veal partially offset the rise this quarter. Improved weather conditions saw a range of fresh produce return to typical seasonal prices, while mince meat saw temporary discounts.”
Main Positive Contributors:
The most significant offsetting price falls June quarter were tobacco (+2.7 per cent), other non-durable household products (+4.5 per cent) and furniture (+3.8 per cent).
Furnishings, household equipment and services: the ABS said, “Rises of 3.8 per cent in furniture and 3.0 per cent in major household appliances partially offset the fall, due to strong demand for products such as home office furniture and fridges and freezers.”
Rises of 4.5 per cent in other non-durable household products and 6.2 per cent in cleaning and maintenance products were seen due to a reduction in specials and genuine price increases for toilet paper and cleaning products.
Recreation and culture: the ABS said, “A rise of 1.8 per cent in Audio, visual and computing equipment was due to strong demand for products such as TVs. This was the first quarterly rise in this series since 2015.”
Health: the ABS said, “falls of 0.5 per cent in pharmaceutical products and 0.2 per cent in medical and hospital services were the main contributors. The fall in pharmaceutical products was due to increases in the proportion of consumers who qualify for subsidies under the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS). The fall in medical and hospital services was due to a combination of increased bulk billing as well as a freeze on private health insurance premiums, which typically rise on 1 April each year.”
Food: the ABS said, “Rises of 0.8 per cent in take-away and fast foods, 3.8 per cent in fish and other seafood, 2.0 per cent in water, soft drinks and juices, and 6.1 per cent in other cereal products, were the main contributors this quarter. High demand saw a reduction in specials and genuine price increases on a range of long-life products such as canned tuna and canned meat, rice and pasta.” 
Prices of tradables: The tradables component of the ‘All groups CPI’ fell by 1.3 per cent in the June quarter to be down 0.5 per cent over the year.
Tradable goods component fell 1.3 per cent mainly due to automotive fuel (-19.3 per cent).
Tradable services component fell 1.9 per cent due to international holiday travel and accommodation (-2.0 per cent).
Prices of non-tradables: The non-tradables component of the ‘All groups CPI’ fell by 2.3 per cent in the June quarter to be down 0.2 per cent over the year.
Non-tradable goods component rose 0.2 per cent, due to tobacco products (+2.7 per cent).
Non-tradable services component fell 3.6 per cent, due to child care (-95.0 per cent).
In seasonally adjusted terms, the tradables component of the ‘All groups CPI’ fell 1.3 per cent and the non-tradables component fell 2.2 per cent.
Tradable goods are those items whose prices are largely determined on the world market. Non-tradable prices are more affected by domestic economic conditions.
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
The Reserve Bank sets interest rates with a view of keeping inflation between 2-3 per cent over an economic cycle. Inflation is well below the lower bound of the range at present. And the expectation is that inflation will remain contained for some time. As a result, interest rates will spend an extended period at generational lows.
Super-low rates is a great result for borrowers. But it represents on-going challenges for savers. The added complication that listed companies are expected to slash dividends when they report over the next month.
Businesses that want an inflation guide for setting selling prices or rents are best advised to use the ‘trimmed mean’. The Reserve Bank expects annual trimmed inflation to be 1.25-1.50 per cent through to mid-2022.
Does it feel like deflation? Does it feel like the biggest quarterly fall in prices in 89 years? If you were outfitting your home office with furniture and computers, probably not. If you are renting, with children in child care, and paid electricity bills and health insurance premiums in the past quarter, then you probably noticed a big drop in outlays. Similarly if you drive a fair bit – petrol prices slumped in the quarter.
But apart from Victoria, expect more ‘normal’ growth of consumer prices in the months ahead. Petrol prices have certainly lifted and the period of free child care has come to an end.
The inflation measure ‘market goods and services, excluding volatile items’, rose 0.3 per cent in the quarter and 2 per cent over the year. This measure gives a better sense of ‘normal’.
CRAIG JAMES is the Chief Economist at CommSec
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CPI fell for the first time since 1931: CommSec's Craig James

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The Consumer Price Index – the main measure of inflation in Australia – rose by 0.6 per cent in the June quarter, above expectations.
In seasonally adjusted terms the CPI rose by 0.7 per cent. The annual rate of headline inflation lifted from 1.3 per cent to 1.6 per cent. The Aussie dollar rose by almost a quarter of a cent against the greenback in response.
The Reserve Bank monitors three measures to derive the underlying inflation rate. The trimmed mean rose by 0.4 per cent in the June quarter (1.6 per cent annual); the weighted median rose by 0.4 per cent (1.2 per cent annual) and the CPI less volatile items rose by 0.3 per cent (1.5 per cent annual). Overall, underlying inflation rose by around 0.4 per cent in the quarter and by around 1.5 per cent over the year. Market goods and services less volatile items rose by 0.5 per cent in the quarter to be up 1.6 per cent on the year.
Automotive fuel (+10.2 per cent), medical and hospital services (+2.6 per cent) and international holiday travel (+2.7%) recorded the most significant price gains. The most significant offsetting price falls this quarter are fruit (-4.1 per cent), electricity (-1.7 per cent) and domestic travel (-1.5 per cent).
<h1>What does it all mean?</h1>
- Inflation remains contained. But we can never claim that the inflation dragon is dead, rather resting. Higher fuel prices can be passed through in terms of higher taxi and public transport fares as well as freight and courier prices. Weather events like the current drought in eastern Australia can push up prices of supermarket goods as well as café, restaurant and takeaway food prices. The high activity in infrastructure building can put upward pressure on construction sector wages, in turn lifting prices of newly-built dwellings.   
- Clearly fuel and food prices are volatile. Fuel lifted 10.2 per cent in the June quarter, but over the past month, petrol is down by 3 per cent.
- If we are looking where future inflation pulses can come from, fuel prices, weather events, administered prices (such as utilities and child care), the exchange rate, construction and wages are the things to watch.
- Headline inflation has averaged 1.7 per cent over the past five years and averaged 2.1 per cent over the past decade. So clearly inflation remains below ‘normal’ levels and certainly still below the Reserve Bank’s 2-3 per cent target band.
- The key underlying measures of inflation rose 0.3-0.5 per cent in the June quarter. Even if the latest results were annualised, inflation would be below the Reserve Bank’s 2-3 per cent inflation target.
- Wages are still growing at a slower pace than in the past. But wages are outpacing prices and have lifted from lows. And businesses can’t absorb higher costs forever. The next wage price index data is released on August 14. 
- The Reserve Bank has cut rates in quick succession. At the same time there are indications that economic momentum has improved since the election. The US Federal Reserve is poised to cut rates. So it is opportune that the RBA stays on the interest rate sidelines for now. But with inflation below the target band and likely to remain low, the Reserve Bank can cut rates further if it believed it would be successful in generating faster economic growth, higher wages and lower unemployment. 
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CRAIG JAMES is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>. 
 
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Inflation dragon still dozing: CommSec

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Australia's Consumer Price Index has risen 0.6 percent over the June quarter, slightly higher than expectations. 
The biggest drivers in the uptick of prices was fuel, up 10 percent.
International holiday travel and accomodation was up 2.7 percent, medical and hospital services was up 2.6 percent and tobacco was up 2.4 percent.
On the flip side, prices for fruit and vegetables were down 2.8 percent), domestic holiday travel and accommodation was down 1.5 per cent and electricity was down -1.7 per cent over the quarter.
"Inflation remains contained," noted CommSec chief economist Craig James.
"But we can never claim that the inflation dragon is dead, rather resting. 
"Higher fuel prices can be passed through in terms of higher taxi and public transport fares as well as freight and courier prices. 
"Weather events like the current drought in eastern Australia can push up prices of supermarket goods as well as café, restaurant and takeaway food prices. 
"The high activity in infrastructure building can put upward pressure on construction sector wages, in turn lifting prices of newly-built dwellings,' James advised.   
ABS chief economist Bruce Hockman said automotive fuel price rise of 10.2 per cent in the June quarter 2019 contributed to half of the 0.6 per cent rise this quarter.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/31/CPI%20quarterly%20change.jpg" alt="">
 
"Automotive fuel prices returned to levels recorded in late 2018 after falling 8.7 per cent in the March quarter 2019." The CPI rose 1.6 per cent through the year to the June quarter 2019, after increasing 1.3 per cent through the year to the March quarter. 
"Annual growth in the CPI continues to be subdued due to falls in a number of administered prices. Through the year, utility prices have fallen 0.2 per cent and child care has fallen 7.9 per cent following the introduction of the Child Care Subsidy package in July 2018."
Westpac had been <a href="/expert-insights/investing/cpi-forecast-to-rise-for-june-quarter-westpacs-justin-smirk">forecasting a 0.5% rise</a> in the June quarter CPI, taking the annual pace to a 1.5% rise from 1.3%.
"The June quarter tends to be a seasonally soft quarter with the ABS projecting a seasonal factor of 0.2ppt increase," Westpac's Justin Smirk said.
IFM economist Alex Joiner says the figures were a slight upside surprise, however it is inline with expectations on core measures.
ANU professor Ben Phillips says CPI for child care shows that since 2002 prices after subsidies up 69% or 14% (real terms). About -6% relative to incomes.
Darwin saw the biggest increase in inflation, up 0.8 percent, driven by a 14 percent rise in domestic holiday, travel and accomodation prices.
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

CPI rises 0.6 percent in June quarter 

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The main measure of consumer prices in Australia – and a key guide to the cost of living for families – is the Consumer Price Index. In the March quarter the CPI was unchanged in original terms, the lowest result in three years. And the annual rate of inflation eased from 1.8 per cent to a 2½-year low of 1.3 per cent. 
While the cost of living has slowed markedly in the latest quarter, this is a trend that has been operating for quite some time. Over the last five years, annual inflation has averaged just 1.74 per cent – the lowest equivalent result since late in 1963. If 20-year averages are used, you would have to go back to 1952 to find a lower outcome. 
While wage growth has slowed over time, so has inflation – and to a greater extent. Aussie consumers have rarely had it better. 
But while the CPI provides a broad gauge of the cost of living, in practice living costs will vary across demographic groups and across regional areas. It all depends on the relative importance of the good or service in your household budget. Clearly younger people purchase markedly different items to those purchases by aged pensioners. 
The other important point is that living costs should be tracked in relation to incomes. For instance if wages are growing at a faster rate than prices, purchasing power will have increased, and, more broadly, the standard of living. Of course the standard of living is more subjective and may include things like traffic congestion and access to medical services. 
The other complication is the time period for measurement. The cost of living may have improved in recent times, but that may have occurred after a long period where living costs were soaring. 
The bottom line is that purchasing power has continued to improve for Australian consumers. For average wage earners, wage growth has exceeded growth of prices over the past five years and over the past decade. Quite remarkably the prices of 26 of the 87 expenditure class items tracked by the ABS are actually lower now than a decade ago. Only 16 of 87 expenditure class items have recorded faster price increases than wages over the past decade.
Living cost indexes 
The Consumer Price Index measures “price inflation for the household sector as a whole”. But to measure purchasing power for different groups in the economy, the Bureau of Statistics compiles living cost indexes. The March quarter figures were issued yesterday. The living cost index (LCI) changes were: employees (flat; +1.4 per cent annual); aged pensioners (up 0.3 per cent; +1.4 per cent annual); self-funded retirees (down 0.2 per cent; +1.6 per cent annual); ‘other government transfer recipient households’ (up 0.2 per cent; +1.6 per cent annual); pensioner and beneficiary households (up 0.3 per cent; +1.6 per cent annual). 
Over the past decade, arguably employee households have had more to celebrate than other groups. The LCI for employees lifted by only 19.3 per cent, followed by self-funded retirees (up 22.8 per cent); age pensioners (up 23.8 per cent), pensioner and beneficiary households (up 25.1 per cent) and ‘other government transfer recipient households’ (up 26.1 per cent).
Prices and incomes
Over the past five years the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 8.3 per cent. And over the past decade, prices rose by 23.4 per cent. The main measure of wages is the wage price index. But data on the WPI is only available to December 2018. Still, the WPI has grown at a faster rate than prices over the past five and ten years. Wages have grown by 11.3 per cent over the past five years and grown by 30.9 per cent over the past decade. 
Using a different measure of wages – average ordinary time earnings for full-time adults – wages rose 11.7 per cent in the five years to November (December quarter) and lifted 38.6 per cent over the past decade. 
The maximum standard rate of the aged pension has lifted by 10 per cent over the past five years and increased by 53 per cent over the decade. The maximum partnered rate of the aged pension increase by 10 per cent over the past five years and increased by 38 per cent over the past decade. 
Cheaper prices 
Most Aussie consumers would be surprised at the breadth and depth of goods that have become cheaper over time. Together with items like clothes, shoes and electrical goods, cars are cheaper than a decade ago – down by over 9 per cent. And then there are staples like eggs (-0.8 per cent), bread (-0.9 per cent) and milk (-14.4 per cent).
Clothing, footwear, cars and a raft of electrical goods have become cheaper over time. In part, this is a global trend, reflecting more efficient production techniques for large scale manufactured goods. Consumers across the globe have benefitted from the greater availability of higher-quality/lower-priced goods. 
Internet purchases have also proven beneficial. Consumers can buy goods whenever they want and wherever they are. In economics, this can be explained as an expansion of supply or choice of goods – putting downward pressure on selling prices. Dearer prices
 When people bemoan the rising cost of living, they are primarily thinking about utilities, child care, education and medical services such as health insurance. The prices of these items have lifted notably over both the last five years and the past decade. 
The good news is that governments have been successful in reducing utility prices with both gas and electricity now cheaper than a year ago. Child care costs have also fallen over the past year. But health insurance fees have lifted by 4.1 per cent over the past year, well ahead of the rate of inflation.
What are the implications?
The conventional wisdom is that the cost of living is soaring. The reality is that the cost of living is growing at the slowest pace in a generation. Now while the cost of living is rising as it always does in a growing economy, annual inflation has actually eased – not just in the past five years but on far longer timeframes.
Our parents and grandparents would been accustomed to inflation rates near 2 per cent and indeed current-day inflation is more akin to that seen in the 1950s and 1960s. 
A raft of goods and services has become cheaper – not just over the past year but many items are cheaper than a decade ago. Thank technology, thank the efficiency and productivity of businesses across the globe.
While price growth has eased, so has wage growth. In a globalised world, businesses are finding it harder to lift prices of their finished products or services. So it is harder for companies to give out pay increases similar to those awarded a decade ago.
Importantly, incomes are growing at a faster pace than prices, so many goods and services have become more affordable.
In the globalised world, businesses needs to stand out. That is, businesses need to find that point of difference with their competitors or their ‘uncommon offering’. Aussie businesses not only can win more market share at home, they can tap into the global marketplace.
Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>.
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Inflation is at a 55-year low: CommSec's Craig James

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/83211/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
A contradiction is emerging between how consumers should be feeling and what the heads of companies expect them to do.
What we know about low wages growth and underemployment seems to suggest households would be tightening the purse strings but the sentiment of business leaders is very positive in sectors relying on consumer spending.
Wages are struggling to keep pace with the prices of the things we buy and average hours worked (per worker) have also been trending down or flat at best. This is not a picture of robust consumer finances.
On top of this retailers are facing the threat of competition from US giant Amazon. Yet according to our analysis of the outlook of leaders of Australia’s ASX 200 companies, positivity has increased.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/01/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-01%20at%208.36.49%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/09/01/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-01%20at%208.36.49%20AM.png" alt=""> 
The sentiment of business leaders has remained positive and improved over the past 12 months according to our analysis. The “polarity” score, which measures whether the sentiment is positive or negative, has increased from 0.11 to 0.15 (a statistically significant improvement).
We also looked at how subjective these statements were and found there’s been no significant increase in how opinionated these statements are.
Our findings also mirror other business confidence surveys and even the Reserve Bank of Australia’s own outlook, which also paints a buoyant picture. The RBA expects growth in the economy to strengthen gradually to be around 3% in the first half of 2018. The RBA expects wage growth to gradually pick up over the next year or two and for average hours worked to increase somewhat.
Similarly, the Westpac-AusChamber Actual Composite index strengthened in June 2017, rising 1.8 points to 65.0. This factored in a strengthening in the labour market, as manufacturing firms plan to hire more workers and manufacturing wages rise. And the NAB business confidence survey also reveals that business conditions and confidence are improving.
The positive outlook for economic growth according to the RBA is driven by resource exports notably iron ore and liquid natural gas (LNG) production, household consumption including retail sales, and non-mining business investment. The RBA also expects wage growth to soon pick up.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/01/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-01%20at%208.37.59%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/09/01/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-01%20at%208.37.59%20AM.png" alt=""> 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/01/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-01%20at%208.39.08%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/09/01/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-01%20at%208.39.08%20AM.png" alt=""> 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/01/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-01%20at%208.40.00%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/09/01/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-01%20at%208.40.00%20AM.png" alt="">
These drivers are reflected in our sentiment analysis. Business leaders in ASX categories relying on household spending, have stronger than average positive outlook on the future, with an average score of 0.18.
This was led by businesses like JB HiFi (0.41), TabCorp (0.23) and Flight Centre (0.18); and also consumer staples led by Ardent Leisure (0.50), Treasury Wine Estates (0.38) and Coca-Cola Amatil (0.18).
The outlook for manufacturing is also positive due to a range of factors such as infrastructure spending by governments, stronger world growth, and improved international competitiveness due to a lower currency, commercial construction and home building, according to the Westpac-AusChamber index. This is supported by our analysis which found stronger than average sentiment from business leaders in the materials sector (0.17), through companies such as Amcor (0.26).
But the outlook isn’t all positive among our business leaders. Sentiment was weaker than average in utilities (0.07) led by AGL (-0.03). This is hardly surprising given the high uncertainty around energy policy – AGL for example owns coal-fired power plants. Also sentiment was somewhat weaker (0.13) than average among industrial company leaders, the sentiment in Qantas’ outlook was negative (-0.03) and property/real estate company Lend Lease (0.09) was also weak.
Perhaps the gloomy slow wage growth and underemployment will catch up to the more positive sentiment on consumer goods and services in company reports. Or this contradiction might simply reflect the high uncertainty in the global environment.
Consumers certainly seem a little confused: the weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer confidence Index ticked up slightly last week but has jumped around in recent months. Certainly the positive sentiment from business leaders about consumer spending we see in company reports seems optimistic.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/ross-guest-13155" target="_blank">Ross Guest </a>is Professor of Economics and National Senior Teaching Fellow, Griffith University.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/ben-hachey-337155" target="_blank">Ben Hachey is</a> Honorary Associate, School of Information Technologies, University of Sydney.
Both are authors for <a href="https://theconversation.com/au" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>.
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