<section data-scroll-anchor="false" data-testid="conversation-turn-48" data-turn="assistant" data-turn-id="request-WEB:55d7c6ac-8e6d-4881-ad49-0ed9bf66d1cc-23" dir="auto">
Melbourne’s apartment market entered 2026 with renewed momentum, but the recovery is uneven, policy-driven, and increasingly shaped by constrained supply.

According to the RPM Apartments &amp; Townhomes Market Report (April 2026), apartments have begun to outperform detached housing on key metrics,yet that performance is occurring against a backdrop of falling approvals and a tightening development pipeline.

At the end of 2025, Melbourne unit values reached a three-year high of $656,500, recording quarterly growth of two per cent. That figure edged ahead of the 1.8 per cent growth recorded in the house market over the same period, marking a notable shift in relative performance. While modest in absolute terms, the outperformance is significant given the sustained dominance of houses through much of the previous cycle.

This shift has been driven in large part by policy. The federal government’s expanded five per cent Deposit Scheme has had a disproportionate impact on apartment demand, particularly in Melbourne where the $950,000 price cap captures a large share of medium- and high-density stock.

As RPM notes, the scheme “heavily favours medium and high-density dwellings,” effectively accelerating demand in the apartment sector.

The impact is most visible in buyer activity. Victoria recorded more than 43,000 new housing loans in Q4 2025, the highest quarterly volume since mid-2022 and one of the strongest results in over a decade. This lift was broad-based across all buyer types, with first home buyers, owner-occupiers and investors all returning to the market with greater confidence.

This surge in demand has flowed directly into apartment pricing, particularly in Melbourne’s middle and outer rings. Middle-ring unit values reached approximately $757,500, a four-year high, while outer-ring units climbed to a record $650,000. Quarterly growth of 2.9 per cent and 2.5 per cent respectively significantly outpaced both the inner ring (0.8 per cent) and the broader house market.

&nbsp;

<img alt="RPM" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="4628dde5-ad63-4b03-b18e-77d0f750e2aa" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-04-24%20at%209.23.32%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=ig6mqc7Oz7UaszRuzULrGtLPUxGf4NJC" />

&nbsp;

The divergence between apartments and houses is also being shaped by affordability. Detached housing remains out of reach for many buyers, pushing demand toward apartments as a more accessible entry point into well-located suburbs. This is particularly evident among first home buyers and downsizers, both of whom are increasingly prioritising location, amenity and lifestyle over land size.

At the same time, population growth continues to underpin demand. Victoria added more than 122,000 residents in the year to Q3 2025, with Melbourne attracting both overseas migrants and interstate movers, partly due to its relative affordability compared to other capitals.

&nbsp;

<img alt="Population" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="49e10567-a8b3-47c3-afbd-290f0bb62c49" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-04-24%20at%209.22.25%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=.2Drmko4TPh02X55JdF3mIC1EcG0ZfGl" />

However, the most critical factor shaping the apartment market is not demand, it is supply.

Apartment approvals across Greater Melbourne have fallen sharply, signalling a constrained pipeline of future stock. In Q4 2025, just 2,339 apartments were approved, down 20 per cent on the previous quarter and 47 per cent lower than the same period a year earlier. On an annual basis, 11,066 apartment approvals were recorded, an improvement on the previous year, but still well below medium- and long-term averages.

&nbsp;

<img alt="Apartment approvals" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="12f2e7bc-fe01-40c0-80b5-9e829b279d98" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-04-24%20at%209.21.56%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=5mnIXkXGoDgIJdAFhA0alm0cSKzEytqZ" />

This decline reflects a broader contraction cycle that has been underway since 2020. As RPM notes, “apartment approvals appear to be sliding back into a downward trend,” with developers increasingly focused on launching and completing existing projects rather than initiating new ones.

The reasons are well understood. Construction costs have risen more than 20 per cent since 2021, driven largely by labour shortages and material price escalation. At the same time, financing conditions have tightened, with lenders requiring higher contingencies and taking a more cautious approach to risk. Combined with recent interest rate rises, these factors have made feasibility more challenging, particularly for higher-density projects.

This dynamic is creating a disconnect in the market. Demand for apartments—particularly at the more affordable end—is strengthening, while the pipeline of new supply is weakening. In the short term, this may limit the number of new projects coming to market. Over the medium term, however, it is likely to support price resilience and potentially further outperformance relative to houses.

There are some signs of policy-driven supply response. The introduction of Victoria’s Mid-Rise Code, which streamlines approvals for four- to six-storey developments, is expected to improve delivery in well-serviced middle-ring locations. However, this is unlikely to materially offset the broader decline in apartment approvals in the near term.

Despite the positive momentum at the end of 2025, the outlook for 2026 has become more complex. Two interest rate rises early in the year have already impacted consumer confidence, while broader cost pressures, particularly energy and fuel, are feeding through to construction and development costs.

“Victoria’s built form market ended 2025 on a high, but early 2026 rate rises quickly reversed the momentum,” RPM notes.

The implication is that while apartments are currently outperforming houses, the trajectory of that outperformance will depend on how these competing forces evolve. Policy support and affordability are clearly working in favour of apartments, but constrained supply and rising costs are likely to shape the pace and nature of future growth.

What is increasingly clear is that apartments are playing a more central role in Melbourne’s housing market. As population growth continues and affordability pressures intensify, higher-density housing is becoming not just an alternative to detached homes, but a primary solution to the city’s housing needs.
</section>

Joel Robinson

Units lead Melbourne price growth as apartments outperform houses: RPM

Brunswick is set for some of its largest apartments ever delivered with the upcoming new development Frith &amp; Howarth, where the apartments are around 20 per cent larger than what has come before it in the sought-after suburb.

Developer Young Group focused its design on Frith &amp; Howarth around size and scale, but within a boutique building, to create a mini neighbourhood within the mid-rise development. There are just 24 apartments in the mid-rise building on Victoria Street, a short walk to Brunswick Station and the cafe and dining strip along Sydney Road.

“We spent hours comparing what’s currently on the market so we could offer genuine points of difference,” Young Group says, pointing to room sizing, storage, and functional planning as key drivers behind the design.

All of the two-bedroom apartments in the building have been snapped up, with just the large three- and four-bedroom apartments, with the biggest floorplans and best outlooks, remaining.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134317 project_image_fid=354139]

Apartments open directly into open-plan living zones where full-height glazing draws light deep into the apartment. Sliding doors extend the space outward to terraces, many oriented toward the adjacent park or back toward the city skyline.

Kitchens sit within this central space, anchored by sculptural island benches that reference the building’s faceted exterior language. Storage is integrated across multiple layers, overhead cabinetry, concealed joinery, and, in larger configurations, dedicated sculleries or butler’s pantries.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134317 project_image_fid=354137]

The penthouse is the largest ever offered in Brunswick. The penthouse measures nearly 400 sqm all-up, with 242 sqm of internal space complimented by a further 149 sqm of terraces.

It spans the whole top floor and has four bedrooms, four bathrooms, and parking for four cars.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134317 project_image_fid=354133]

Low maintenance resident amenity has been created in the form of a landscaped rooftop, complete with&nbsp;vegetable plots, outdoor cooking areas, and aflresco dining spaces, designed as a place for neighbours to gather outside of their homes.

“To enable connection with neighbours, generous rooftop gardens with communal spaces and outdoor cooking areas offer a chance to develop a sense of community,” says John Patrick, Principal of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/john-patrick-landscape-architects">John Patrick Landscape Architects</a>.&nbsp;

“Private open spaces with a selection of native and exotic plantings and gorgeous city views on the rooftop create a high-end aesthetic, with a low maintenance lifestyle. The perfect balance, so that residents can enjoy a serene living space.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134317 project_image_fid=354134]

Sustainability is embedded at both the building and apartment level. <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/frith-howarth-288-290-victoria-street-brunswick-vic-3056">Frith &amp; Howarth</a> is one of only a small number of all-electric residential developments in Brunswick, supported by solar infrastructure, EV-ready parking, and high-performance glazing. These measures sit alongside less visible systems such as rainwater reuse and high-grade insulation, reducing long-term operational costs while maintaining consistent internal conditions.

Positioned within walking distance of Brunswick Station, Route 96 trams, and established retail along Sydney Road and Barkly Square, the development balances access to transport with proximity to open space, a combination that has become increasingly difficult to secure in inner-city sites.

“These exquisite homes are nestled in a culturally diverse neighbourhood, with parklands and nature right on your doorstep,” says Young Group.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134317]

Frith & Howarth to deliver Brunswick’s largest apartments

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/prince-parade-by-mirvac-brunswick-701-park-street-brunswick-vic-3056">Prince &amp; Parade</a> in Brunswick is entering its final stages of construction, with the removal of the project’s last tower crane and the unveiling of the building’s full façade marking a significant milestone ahead of completion this coming spring.

The Park Street development, designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bates-smart">Bates Smart</a>&nbsp;and Mirvac Design with landscaping by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/jack-merlo">Jack Merlo</a>, is now largely structurally complete, with internal works progressing across the 169-apartment project opposite Princes Park.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/mirvac-construction">Mirvac Construction</a> Project Manager Sam Payne said the latest update reflects a transition from structure to refinement.

“Since our last update, all façade panels have been installed and the scaffolding and gantry has come down, unveiling the building in its full form for the very first time,” Payne said.

“A significant milestone was reached this month with the removal of our final tower crane, signalling the completion of major structural works and a pivotal step forward in the building’s transformation.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4802 project_image_fid=366856]

Apartments are now well advanced internally, with joinery completed to level eight and tiling to level six, alongside the delivery of a prototype apartment used to set the benchmark for the remaining residences.

This next phase coincides with the release of a completed furnished residence, styled by MCM House, and the introduction of private buyer tours, giving purchasers a clearer understanding of the finished product ahead of settlement.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/prince-parade-by-mirvac-brunswick-701-park-street-brunswick-vic-3056">Prince &amp; Parade</a> will comprise 169 one to four-bedroom apartments, with completion targeted for early spring. Interiors focus on natural materials and muted tones with two design schemes, while kitchens and bathrooms adopt a restrained palette anchored by stone, timber and textured finishes.

Bates Smart Director Jeffery Copolov said the project reflects a shared design direction centred on liveability and sustainability.

“Blending Mirvac and Bates Smart’s focus on wellness and sustainability, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/prince-parade-by-mirvac-brunswick-701-park-street-brunswick-vic-3056">Prince &amp; Parade</a> offers a new kind of conscious, elevated living in Melbourne’s inner north,” Copolov said.

<a href="https://www.urban.com.au/new-apartments/prince-parade-by-mirvac-brunswick-701-park-street-brunswick-vic-3056">Prince &amp; Parade</a> presents Mirvac's third parkside collaboration with&nbsp;<a href="https://www.urban.com.au/architects/bates-smart">Bates Smart</a>&nbsp;in Victoria.&nbsp;Their previous collaborations delivered two of the city’s landmark apartment buildings: The Melburnian opposite Kings Domain and The Eastbourne on Fitzroy Gardens.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4802 project_image_fid=366857]

A key focus of the development is its landscape-led amenity offering. The central courtyard, spanning around 600 sqm, will feature established trees and planting grown off-site, alongside communal lawns and seating areas designed for everyday use.

Development Manager James Gardner said the outdoor spaces are central to the project’s lifestyle positioning.

“<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/prince-parade-by-mirvac-brunswick-701-park-street-brunswick-vic-3056">Prince &amp; Parade</a> isn’t just a home, it’s a complete lifestyle offering, and the resident amenity is just one example of the elevated living experience the soon-to-be-complete building will be known for,” Gardner said.

The courtyard connects to a series of shared indoor and outdoor spaces, including a residents’ lounge, dining room, library and secondary west-facing garden area, designed as extensions of the apartments themselves.

Located directly opposite Princes Park and around four kilometres from the CBD, the development places residents within one of Melbourne’s most established inner-north precincts, with access to open space, transport and the retail and hospitality offerings of Brunswick and Carlton.

With façade works complete and landscaping and final finishes now underway, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/prince-parade-by-mirvac-brunswick-701-park-street-brunswick-vic-3056">Prince &amp; Parade</a> is moving into its most active construction phase, with permanent services and external works to be finalised in the coming months ahead of completion in spring.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=4802]

Mirvac’s latest landmark, Prince & Parade Brunswick, enters final construction phase

Boutique Perth developer ADC has unveiled its latest project.

The developer, which focuses on bringing apartments to some of Perth's most premium inner-city and riverside suburbs, has launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/mos-lane-mosman-park-46-manning-street-mosman-park-wa-6012">Mos Lane</a>, 68 luxury apartments and townhouses in the heart of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mosman-park-wa-6012">Mosman Park</a>.

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Alongside the one-, two-, three- and four-bedroom apartments, the development will also include five two-level townhomes and two luxe penthouses. ADC is also introducing a significant retail offering for residents through Mos Lane Village, which will feature a wellness studio, fish and chips shop, barber, and florist, adding a layer of amenity not typically found in the predominantly residential Mosman Park area.

Construction has already commenced on the project, which sits just a short walk from the Swan River, Mosman Park Bowls Club, and Mosman Park Golf Course.

House Agency Directors Tom House and Lachlan McDonald say they are fielding the majority of buyer interest from local downsizers, as well as buyers with a long-standing affinity for Mosman Park.
</section>

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364591]

Mos Lane will comprise two buildings; Samson House and Manning House, which have been designed by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/nelson-koo">Nelson + Koo</a>, an emerging design consultancy specialising in the masterplanning and design of mixed use places and spaces.

The two buildings adopt distinct architectural responses to their surroundings. Manning House references the strong roof forms of nearby homes, with floorplates oriented to maximise light and long-range views, while Samson House is organised around a central atrium designed to bring daylight deep into the building and create a greater sense of openness.

At ground level, the inclusion of five townhomes introduces a typology more commonly associated with Mosman Park’s established streets, each with private courtyards and direct frontage, offering a transition between traditional housing and apartment living.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364103]

Interiors have been led by Melbourne-based Hecker Guthrie, with an emphasis on practical, long-term liveability. Residences incorporate sculpted joinery, generous storage and flexible multi-purpose rooms that can adapt to changing household needs, whether for working from home, guest accommodation or additional living space.

Material selections draw on a restrained palette of textured stone, timber and neutral tones, with options for lighter or darker schemes. Detailing such as fluted glass, full-height joinery and integrated appliances is intended to balance functionality with a more refined residential finish.

Outdoor spaces are a consistent feature across the development, with balconies and terraces designed for dining and entertaining, and larger apartments incorporating outdoor kitchens. Orientation has been considered to allow residents to choose between morning or afternoon sun, while mature street trees and landscaped communal areas contribute to a softer streetscape.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364107]

Shared amenities are positioned to support both day-to-day convenience and occasional use. These include a private dining room with a caterer’s kitchen, alfresco entertaining areas, and a bookable guest suite for visiting friends and family. Additional practical features such as a resident workshop, storage facilities, car and pet wash areas, and concierge-style services for cleaning and dry-cleaning collection reflect a focus on usability.

Positioned between the Swan River and Cottesloe Beach, and within reach of schools such as Iona Presentation College and St Hilda’s Anglican School, the development is aimed at a broad buyer group, from downsizers seeking a lower-maintenance alternative to larger homes, through to local residents looking to remain in the area in a different housing format.

Mos Lane represents one of the more significant additions to Mosman Park’s limited pipeline, combining new housing supply with a village-style retail centre in a suburb where opportunities for large-scale redevelopment are relatively constrained.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=148957]

Living village precinct set for Mosman Park as ADC launches Mos Lane

An entity linked to I&amp;D Group Founder Ivan Filipović has filed plans for a new residential development at 188–202 Swan Street in Cremorne, targeting a prominent site within the tightly held Swan Street activity corridor.

The proposal seeks to redevelop the consolidated Swan Street landholding into a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/188-202-swan-street-cremorne-vic-3121">high-density mixed-use project</a>, replacing a series of existing commercial buildings with a significantly scaled residential outcome. The planning submission positions the development as a response to increasing demand for housing in well-connected inner-urban locations, particularly within established activity centres.

Plans outline the construction of a 14-storey building delivering 165 apartments above a four-level basement, alongside a ground-floor retail and commercial offering designed to activate the streetscape. A key feature of the scheme is a new north–south pedestrian link connecting Swan Street to Railway Place, intended to “enhance permeability and provide an active, publicly accessible connection through the site.”

<img alt="First Look: Plans lodged for Ivan Filipović-linked Cremorne apartment project on Swan Street" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7332a8f8-dd2b-483d-b86e-320658838c84" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/cremorne.png?VersionId=cXm8vAaRdHh.LpYVbecrRkjckgu9mtAF" />

The development will retain part of the existing built form at 198–200 Swan Street, while the remainder of the site will be cleared to accommodate the new structure. Basement levels will provide 196 car spaces and 113 bicycle spaces, with vehicle access from Railway Place. Communal amenity is distributed across the building, including a shared outdoor area on Level 1 and a rooftop terrace for residents.

Ground level uses include retail tenancies fronting Swan Street and the pedestrian link, a residential lobby, and a flexible commercial space positioned to support community-oriented uses. The planning report notes this space “could be offered as a flexible space within the development for community groups,” supporting short-term or longer-term occupancy arrangements.

<img alt="First Look: Plans lodged for Ivan Filipović-linked Cremorne apartment project on Swan Street" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="8208bf7b-cc67-485d-ad0f-1d73a74c907f" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/cremorne%20lane.png?VersionId=69ctjC0txXv0zCHy7qQUpJyGwvPAT7gw" />

The site sits within the Swan Street Major Activity Centre, surrounded by a mix of retail, hospitality, and emerging residential development, and directly opposite tram services along Swan Street. East Richmond Station is located to the south, providing strong rail connectivity, while the broader Cremorne precinct continues to evolve as a mixed-use hub.

I&amp;D Group, founded by Ivan Filipović, is regarded as one of Victoria’s largest formwork contractors, partnering with major construction firms across large-scale public and private developments. The Swan Street proposal signals a move into development-backed opportunities tied to strategic inner-city sites.

First Look: Plans lodged for Cremorne apartment project on Swan Street

Christmas

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A father of four children has bought them all an apartment for Christmas.
The Sunday Telegraph reported finance worker Majed Akil was afraid his adult children would never be able to save up a deposit on their own, so used his savings and equity in the family home to put down deposits on four apartments in Liverpool.
They are in the Coronation’s The Paper Mill project at Liverpool.
The four siblings are aged 19 to 30.
Two have taken over the mortgages with their partners.
The other units will be rented out until the younger two complete their university studies and are ready to move in.
“I wanted to give them a head start because I think it has become impossible for our kids to save $100,000 to $150,000,” Mr Akil said.
He bought the two bedroom units off the plan for between $487,000 and $546,000.
The similar apartments are on different floors.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Dad buys four kids an apartment each for Christmas in Coronation's The Paper Mill

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Ray White Bundoora seem to be the keenest agency scheduling auctions on the Saturday before Christmas.
The agency in north east Melbourne have four homes on their books for the 23rd of December, the only agency in the country with a handful of auctions set for that date.
Two of the properties are targeting developers.
One of the homes in Bundoora is set to be traded for the first time in over three decades. It last sold for $75,000 in 1984 and is now being marketed with a $690,000 to $740,000 auction guide.
Ray White Bundoora agent Olivia Wang said its a developer's dream or a perfect opportunity for an enthusiastic renovator.
The <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-vic-bundoora-127108046" target="_blank">three bedroom home</a> sits on a near 590 sqm corner parcel and has a rental appraisal of between $350 to $400 a week.
Another developer targeted <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-vic-preston-127056078" target="_blank">property is in Preston</a>, nine kilometres north of the Melbourne CBD.
Offered with an auction guide of $820,000 to $900,000 through Joe Torzillo, the current run down home on 560 sqm has three bedrooms and two living areas, with a kitchen still in original condition.
It last traded for $510,000 in 2009.
The closest home to the Ray White Bundoora office is a remodelled and renovated <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-vic-bundoora-127049446" target="_blank">Regan Court home</a> (top and below).
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/12/8/eve2.jpg" alt="">
Complete with swimming pool on its 635 sqm parcel, it is being marketed by Joe Torzillo with $820,000 to $900,000 hopes.
A <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-vic-mill+park-127068642" target="_blank">Mill Park home</a> north of Melbourne goes to auction on the same day, located in the sought-after Rivergum Estate.
Set on 625 sqm, the family home has four bedrooms, two bathrooms and a theatre room. It has a $950,000 to $1,045,000 guide through Vanya Kostur.
In NSW there is <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-unit-nsw-east+gosford-127084954" target="_blank">a Gosford district offering</a> at 3.30pm on Saturday December 23.
 
 
 
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Last minute pre-Christmas auctions ahead of Santa's visit

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In what is already shaping as a hotly contested retail high season, the early signs are not promising for consumer spending over Christmas 2017. The picture from November's Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment survey is one of income pressures, nervousness about the year ahead and consumers looking to keep Christmas spending on a tight rein. A repeat of 2016's 'tepid' Christmas spend looks likely.
November's Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment survey showed the consumer mood slipping back into slightly pessimistic territory after a brief moment of optimism in October (see <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/Article/29127" target="_blank">Consumer Sentiment Index back below 100)</a>. Responses to our annual question on Christmas spending underscore the lacklustre tone. The question asks if consumers expect to spend less, about the same, or more on Christmas gifts than last year. Just under a third of Australians expect to spend less on gifts this year than last, with 54% expecting to spend about the same and just 11% spending more – the lowest proportion since we began running this question in 2009.
The simplest summary measure of intentions is an index based on the net balance of responses, i.e. 100 + %more – %less. On this basis, the 2017 reading is 78, down 2.3% from 79.9 in 2016. This year's read is comparable to the 2009-13 period which saw five successive years of readings in the 77-79 range . While far from the disastrous, 66 reading in the depths of the GFC, the 2017 index is also a far cry from the most recent peak in 2015 (87.0) and the record high in 2007 (91). Overall, the 78 reading is broadly consistent with flat per capita growth in retail sales. Allowing for population gains, that points to aggregate retail sales growth of around 1.6%yr, in line with the current subdued pace and down on the 2% gain in 2016.
The survey detail offers few redeeming positives. The state responses show consumers in Vic and NSW are a little less inclined to restrain spending and Qlder's are less pessimistic than last year but those in SA and WA are tilting more towards cut backs (the latter a notable weak spot). Sub-group variations were also fairly minor although responses amongst those aged over 55, middle income earners and consumers with a mortgage show bigger pull backs vs a year ago.
The wider picture from Consumer Sentiment is of a similar lead-in to last year. That puts the Christmas 2017 in the 'middle of the pack' by long term historical standards but will clearly come as a disappointment for Australian retailers who have already endured a lacklustre, stop-start year for sales. 
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Christmas spending plans point to flat finish to a flat year: Matthew Hassan

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<div class="section">GUEST OBSERVER</div>
<div class="section"> </div>
<div class="section">With barely 30 shopping days left till Christmas, the latest signs from the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment survey point to a more downbeat holiday spend than a year ago but with plans still in slightly better shape than other 'post GFC' years. <div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
The November Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment survey included an additional question on plans for spending on Christmas gifts, asking: “will spend less, about the same, or more compared to last year?” The results show consumers taking a more restrained approach in 2016 with 34% planning to 'spend less’, 52% 'the same’ and 14% ‘more’. That compares to a 30%:53%:17% mix in 2015.
<a href="/images/2016/11/23/Screen%20Shot%202016-11-23%20at%209.05.31%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/11/23/Screen%20Shot%202016-11-23%20at%209.05.31%20AM.png" alt="">
 
The simplest summary measure of intentions is an index based on the net balance of responses, i.e. 100 + %more – %less. On this basis, the 2016 reading is 79.9, down from 87.0 in 2015. That in turn followed five successive years of readings in the 77-79 range, a disastrous 66 reading in the depths of the GFC and a record high 91 during the consumer boom in 2007.
<a href="/images/2016/11/23/Screen%20Shot%202016-11-23%20at%209.06.41%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/11/23/Screen%20Shot%202016-11-23%20at%209.06.41%20AM.png" alt="">
 
All up that places 2016's read down sharply on 2015 but still a touch above the lacklustre results over the previous five years. Going by the retail sales results in those years this looks to be roughly consistent with a 1.5-2%yr rise in per capita spending. With population growth tracking at 1.4%yr, total retail sales will likely be up about 3-31⁄2%yr – a 'so-so' year compared to the 5% gain in 2015.
<a href="/images/2016/11/23/Screen%20Shot%202016-11-23%20at%209.07.42%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/11/23/Screen%20Shot%202016-11-23%20at%209.07.42%20AM.png" alt="">
 
The survey detail shows the biggest cooling off vs a year ago has been in NSW, with spending plans notably firmer in Vic and improving marginally on last year for consumers in SA, Qld and WA. That said, spending plans in SA and the 'mining states' are still tracking at markedly weaker levels than in NSW and Vic. By sub-group, the biggest pull backs vs a year ago have been amongst 18-34 year old's, those on lower incomes and females. Those with annual incomes in the $60-100k were notably more positive, both compared to previous years and with other groups.
The picture from Consumer Sentiment more generally also shows a 'lukewarm' lead-in to the holiday period. Sentiment is tracking at similar levels to last year but with views around family finances notably softer.
<a href="/images/2016/11/23/Screen%20Shot%202016-11-23%20at%209.08.37%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/11/23/Screen%20Shot%202016-11-23%20at%209.08.37%20AM.png" alt="">
 
Casting our gaze back further, over the entire 42yr history of the survey, the sentiment lead-in to Christmas 2016 is in the middle of the pack – a long way above the bleak recession years in the early-90s and early-80s and deeply unsettled GFC year in 2008 but also a far cry from the 'golden' years in the mid-80s, the early to mid-2000s and the post GFC bounce in 2009. We will leave it to readers to draw parallels with weather patterns, cricket performances and the like. 
Matthew Hassan is senior economist with <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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