Developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/bottega-property-group">Bottega House</a> has secured council approval for its first Brisbane project - a $270 million luxury residential development on an absolute riverfront site in leafy St Lucia.&nbsp;

The 15-storey project, known as <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/st-lucia-by-bottega-house-180-macquarie-street-st-lucia-qld-4067">St Lucia by Bottega House</a> , will occupy a prime north-facing site at 178-180 Macquarie Street, directly fronting the Brisbane River in the established inner-west suburb known for its rowing clubs, golf courses and sprawling University of Queensland campus.&nbsp;

St Lucia by Bottega House will feature a suite of amenities including dedicated wellness spaces, a mineral pool and cold plunge. The project has been positioned to attract affluent owner-occupiers seeking high-quality, house-sized apartments.&nbsp;

Bottega House has been set up by co-directors Nick Malloch, Louis Mennes and Craig Marsh.

Malloch said the project drew inspiration from its Brisbane River setting and leafy inner-west surrounds, while responding to the demands of discerning locals looking to transition from freestanding homes into apartment living.&nbsp;

"With an expansive river frontage and lush green surrounds, we knew we had to create something special that reflects the natural beauty of the location while offering residents masterfully crafted homes," said Malloch.&nbsp;

"Our intent was to complement the project's quiet, private setting by introducing residences that offer a calm retreat and sanctuary from the everyday. The result is a harmonious blend of architecture, interiors and amenity that emphasises wellbeing, comfort and beauty without excess."&nbsp;

Malloch added that project consultants had been carefully selected in alignment with Bottega House's commitment to care, quality and attention to detail. The design team includes architects <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/plus-studio">Plus Studio</a>, interiors practice <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/mim-design">Mim Design</a> and landscaping by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/urbis">Urbis</a>.&nbsp;

Three-bedroom apartments are expected to start around $5 millio. Selling agents Keenan &amp; Byrne said the pricing strategy for the project was anticipated to achieve upwards of $25,500 per square metre.&nbsp;

The project's development approval this week follows the success of Bottega House's inaugural Queensland project - a 22-storey collection of full-floor sky homes at Broadbeach on the Gold Coast which included the sale of a two-storey penthouse at a record price for a beachside residence.&nbsp;

St Lucia by Bottega House is expected to launch to market in November, with construction anticipated to be completed mid 2029.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=151826]

Joel Robinson

Bottega House to make Brisbane debut with St Lucia riverfront apartment development

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sherpa-property-group">Sherpa Property Group</a> is advancing its affordable apartment model into Brisbane with the acquisition of another site at Cordelia Street in South Brisbane for $27 million.

Sherpa, which has a $1.7 billion pipeline across Southeast Queensland, intends to bring a cohort of apartments exclusively for first homebuyers into its proposed 186-apartment project to be built at 2 Cordelia Street.

The Sherpa model has already been incredibly well received from their Gold Coast projects, where Sherpa Group set aside a number of apartments exclusively for first homebuyers.

The new $320 million project marks Sherpa Group's second development in Brisbane, following its $255 million Symphony project, also on Cordelia Street, which is currently under construction.

Symphony will deliver 146 apartments across 28 levels, offering a mix of one, two and three-bedroom apartments. With 114 already sold, construction by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/lps-group">LPS Group</a> is scheduled for completion in 2028.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7574 project_image_fid=351654]

Sherpa Founder, Christie Leet, said the company was excited to be venturing into Brisbane for its second residential project.

“We’re big believers in the future of Brisbane as we lead into the 2032 Olympics and beyond,” Leet said.

“The success of Symphony has guided us into what will be our second project and we look forward to submitting our plans with council soon so we can deliver yet another quality project to the inner city residential market.

“Our Flourish model has been very well received both in Brisbane and the Gold Coast, and we’re excited to be able to offer some of these apartments again exclusively to first homebuyers to help get them into the property market.

“The model has been extraordinarily well received in our previous projects and it is something we are committed to moving forward.”

2 Cordelia Street will be designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/hal-architects">HAL Architects</a> &amp; Finegrain and will include Sherpa’s signature residential amenities including pool, gym, recreation, wellness and work from home spaces.

The project will feature ground-floor commercial space, creating a vibrant amenity for residents and the surrounding community.

A development application will be lodged with Brisbane City Council in August on the code compliant site and will be launched to the market early 2027.

Sherpa acquires new site for second Brisbane apartment tower

One of North Sydney's best-known commercial buildings could become hundreds of new homes, with insurance giant Zurich Australia lodging a State Significant Development Application (SSDA) to transform 5 Blue Street into a mixed-use residential development above North Sydney Station.

Rather than demolishing the existing building and starting again, Zurich is proposing an adaptive reuse project that would convert the landmark office building into a 15-level residential development delivering 62 apartments, 86 affordable co-living dwellings, activated retail and significant upgrades to the Blue Street Plaza.

The proposal reflects a growing trend of commercial property owners repositioning ageing office assets into residential housing as Sydney grapples with housing supply shortages and changing workplace demand.

<img alt="Zurich" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0bba7d12-06dc-4375-aad7-238c94b21ac5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-22%20at%2010.42.05%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=NJl5oLAEBDGuPmY3RnyliKODjMc8lvRh" />

Located directly above North Sydney Metro and train station, the 3,051 sqm site occupies one of the most strategically positioned parcels of land on Sydney's Lower North Shore.

Designed by fjcstudio, the proposal seeks to retain and adapt much of the existing structure while creating a contemporary residential address that better connects with the public domain surrounding North Sydney Station.

The application proposes two basement levels, ground floor retail, affordable co-living accommodation across the podium levels, and apartments above, while preserving and enhancing the publicly accessible Blue Street Plaza.

Rather than pursuing maximum apartment numbers, Zurich has opted for a housing mix heavily weighted towards larger owner-occupier residences.

The proposal includes 62 build-to-sell apartments comprising 12 one-bedroom, 19 two-bedroom, 29 three-bedroom apartments and two premium penthouses. It also incorporates 86 affordable co-living dwellings, which would be managed in perpetuity by a Community Housing Provider.

That balance between traditional apartments and affordable housing reflects the NSW Government's push to increase housing diversity around major transport infrastructure.

The proposal has been lodged concurrently with a rezoning application, with Zurich arguing the site is ideally positioned to support additional housing given its immediate proximity to public transport, employment and services.

"The proposal aims to respond to the housing challenges facing Sydney through the delivery of diverse housing types in a highly accessible location," the design report by fjcstudio states. It also seeks to improve pedestrian amenity through upgrades to Blue Street Plaza while creating a high-performing residential building that responds to the surrounding context.

<img alt="Zurich" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="36082e15-c636-4481-bb68-5a5f6443fe39" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-22%20at%2010.41.36%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=5P6VD.fvmqjQfIG3TWWMRXxQWiQBjeFB" />

Rather than replacing the commercial building, fjcstudio has developed a design that works with the existing structural framework above the rail corridor, an approach that significantly reduces demolition while allowing the site to be repositioned as a mixed-use residential precinct.

The existing structural constraints have informed much of the building's design, including its relationship with Blue Street and surrounding public spaces.

The building has been designed as a slender tower rising above a clearly defined podium, with vertically expressed façades intended to reduce the perceived bulk while reinforcing North Sydney's emerging skyline.

According to fjcstudio, the architectural language responds directly to the surrounding commercial towers while maintaining a finer grain expression more closely aligned with the neighbouring Lavender Bay streetscape.

The tower incorporates articulated façade elements, landscaped podium edges and recessed upper levels to soften its appearance and improve pedestrian amenity below.

A significant component of the proposal is the revitalisation of Blue Street Plaza.

The existing public space has long served as one of the primary pedestrian connections between North Sydney Station, Greenwood Plaza and Blue Street, yet its role is expected to become even more important following the opening of Sydney Metro.

Zurich's proposal seeks to strengthen that role by improving landscaping, introducing new retail frontages, enhancing pedestrian permeability and creating more active edges throughout the day and evening.

Ground floor retail would wrap the plaza, while separate residential and co-living entries have been designed to improve wayfinding without reducing street activation.

Landscape design has been integrated throughout the podium and public realm, softening what is currently one of the most heavily urbanised parts of North Sydney.

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fjcstudio has carefully oriented apartments towards Sydney Harbour and the CBD while using privacy blades and articulated façades to minimise overlooking between neighbouring buildings.

Large framed openings along the western elevation maximise harbour outlooks, while the eastern apartments have been angled towards the south-east to improve privacy from neighbouring development.

The project forms part of the continuing transformation of North Sydney from a predominantly commercial CBD into a genuine mixed-use city centre.

Since the completion of Victoria Cross Metro Station, developers have increasingly shifted their attention towards residential projects capable of leveraging the area's unparalleled transport connectivity.

&nbsp;

FiveX recently lodged plans for a 61-storey, 490-apartment tower that would become one of the tallest residential buildings in North Sydney if approved.

Aqualand continues to expand its Lower North Shore presence following the completion of AURA on Walker Street and its recent St Leonards and Roseville proposals.

Developers are also progressing projects throughout Walker Street, Miller Street and the Victoria Cross precinct as demand for well-located owner-occupier apartments continues to strengthen.

First look: Zurich targets North Sydney office conversion with 148-unit proposal above Metro station

Busy developer Aqualand Prestige has formally taken the next step in its expansion across Sydney's Lower North Shore, lodging a State Significant Development Application (SSDA) for its long-held Archer Street site in Chatswood.

The application covers <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/51-55-archer-street-chatswood-nsw-2067">51-55 Archer Street</a>, a 1,767 sqm amalgamated site on the eastern edge of the Chatswood CBD, where the developer is seeking approval for a 45-level mixed-use tower delivering 114 apartments, including a significant affordable housing component, alongside retail, commercial space and six basement levels of parking.

The SSDA marks the latest milestone for a project Aqualand has been quietly progressing over the past two years. The developer first secured the site for its Aqualand Prestige platform before undertaking an alternative design excellence process with PTW Architects, ultimately avoiding a formal design competition through the Housing Delivery Authority pathway.

The proposal has evolved considerably from Aqualand's original concept. The revised scheme has been designed around larger owner-occupier product, with an unusually high proportion of three and four-bedroom apartments, targeting the more affluent buyer profile, and downsizer, emerging across the North Shore.

<img alt="Archer St" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0171204c-5811-41b5-9b09-2335d1b7c3d0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-22%20at%208.52.48%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=6YTuxfq.puZo7k2wbfgemcO5K3QfXYGQ" />

The 114-apartment mix comprises six studios, 27 one-bedroom apartments, 18 two-bedroom apartments, 50 three-bedroom residences and 13 four-bedroom homes. A quarter of the building will be dedicated to affordable housing, well above the mandated 15 per cent&nbsp;

PTW has structured the building vertically, with affordable housing across levels one to six, premium apartments through levels seven to 31, duplex skyhomes on klevels 32 to 43, a penthouse on level 44, and a rooftop plant level above. Six basement levels will provide resident parking and servicing.

The tower is proposed to reach approximately 154 metres, placing it among a growing collection of residential high-rises transforming Chatswood's skyline.

Rather than competing purely on height, PTW says the design has been driven by creating a slimmer tower capable of delivering significantly larger apartments.

"The primary objective of this project was to create a distinctive building that stands out from the recently approved or built structures in the Chatswood area," the design report states, noting the structural efficiency allows greater investment into apartment quality and resident amenity.

Residents would have access to more than 450 sqm of communal open space including landscaped gardens, swimming pool, rooftop entertaining areas, fitness spaces, community gardens, children's play areas and barbecue facilities.

A major focus of the design has been the public domain.

The ground plane has been opened up through landscaped terraces inspired by Willoughby's sandstone ridges, with native planting, public seating, artwork, retail activation and a series of gathering spaces intended to soften what has traditionally been a hard commercial streetscape.

The landscape strategy references Blue Gum forests once common throughout the area, while incorporating Indigenous storytelling, public art and lighting installations to strengthen the connection to Country.

Chatswood has been one of Sydney's busiest apartment markets over the past 12 months, with a steady pipeline of both new project launches and fresh development applications.

Hyecorp recently launched Celine, a 122-apartment development just along Archer Street, while Changfa and Huirong Group are progressing The Anderson, an 84-apartment project on Anderson Street.

Develotek recently secured approval for a 101-apartment tower on Pacific Highway, while Tian An LFD received the green light for Hammond Greens, its apartment development on the edge of the Chatswood Bowling Club.

Commercial property developer FiveX is also making its move into the residential market. Last month it lodged plans for a 61-storey tower with 490 apartments, which, if approved, would become one of the tallest residential buildings in Chatswood.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-fivex-targets-chatswood-skyline-with-61-storey-tower-after-north-sydney-plans">First look: FiveX targets Chatswood skyline with 61-storey tower after North Sydney plans</a>

Aqualand is also expanding its development pipeline following the launch of its luxury residential brand, Aqualand Prestige. The developer has delivered a string of high-end apartment projects across Sydney's affluent suburbs over the past decade, most recently AURA by Aqualand on Walker Street in North Sydney.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=30959 project_image_fid=292863]

It has since quietly assembled its next wave of projects.

Earlier this year Aqualand launched Boronia in Roseville, a boutique 111-apartment development on Larkin Street. The project is one of the first significant apartment developments to launch in the suburb ahead of what is expected to become one of Sydney's most active new housing precincts under the NSW Government's Low and Mid-Rise Housing reforms, which allow greater density around train stations.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152095 project_image_fid=373685]

The developer has also lodged plans for a two-tower, 413-apartment development on Herbert Street in nearby St Leonards, further strengthening its presence across the Lower North Shore.

Beyond that, Aqualand remains behind the final stage of Barangaroo, where plans will deliver a five-hectare mixed-use precinct comprising new homes, retail, hospitality and community facilities, alongside a new Metro entrance and more than two hectares of public open space, completing the Barangaroo precinct.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/central-barangaroo-development-takes-big-step-with-concept-proposal-approval">Central Barangaroo development takes big step with concept proposal approval</a>

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-aqualand-joins-st-leonards-apartment-party">First look: Aqualand joins St Leonards apartment party</a> 
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First look: Aqualand pushes ahead with Chatswood apartment tower as SSDA lodged for Archer Street

Mass timber is becoming an increasingly popular construction material in apartment developments, but Adelaide developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/otello">Otello</a> is taking the approach a step further.

At its new <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flowe-bowden-18-gibson-street-bowden-sa-5007">Flowe Bowden</a> development, the exposed cross-laminated timber (CLT) structure isn't just about reducing the building's environmental footprint. It also forms the foundation of a broader wellness strategy, influencing everything from indoor air quality and natural materials to the way residents move through and experience the building.

The 115-apartment mixed-use development, designed by Melbourne-based architecture practice Fieldwork, will occupy a prominent island site opposite Bowden Village Reserve, combining one, two and three-bedroom apartments with retail and a dedicated wellness destination.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152022 project_image_fid=375528]

Wellness isn't confined to a gym or shared resident facility at Flowe. Instead, Fieldwork embedded the concept into the building itself.

The development has been split into two residential wings connected by a naturally ventilated central breezeway, replacing traditional enclosed corridors with open-air walkways that improve natural light, encourage cross ventilation and create more opportunities for neighbourly interaction.

"Rather than treating wellness as something that only happens on the ground floor, our response integrates it throughout the building, which led us to ask what it really means to design a healthy building," Fieldwork Director Quino Holland said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152022 project_image_fid=375531]

The building's architecture also reflects Bowden's industrial heritage. The lower podium references the area's historic brick and sandstone buildings, while the upper levels transition to exposed CLT, allowing the timber structure to become a defining feature throughout the apartments and shared spaces.

The use of mass timber sits alongside a range of sustainability initiatives, including a fully electric, gas-free design, rooftop solar and a targeted 5 Star Green Star rating.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152022 project_image_fid=375524]

Inside the residences, the focus remains on natural, durable materials. Blackbutt engineered timber flooring, exposed CLT ceilings, porcelain surfaces and warm timber joinery create a calming interior palette, while low-VOC finishes and responsibly sourced materials have been selected to improve indoor air quality.

Kitchens have been designed as the centrepiece of each apartment, featuring porcelain island benchtops, timber-look cabinetry and brushed steel tapware, with layouts that maximise natural light and ventilation.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152022 project_image_fid=375530]

The more traditional interpretation of wellness comes in the form of Level Eleven, a two-storey wellness club spanning the ground floor, mezzanine and first floor.

The facility will include a gym, yoga and reformer Pilates studios, Finnish and infrared saunas, magnesium hot and cold plunge pools, and dedicated recovery spaces. Unlike many residential wellness facilities, Level Eleven will also operate commercially, allowing the broader Bowden community to access the venue while giving residents exclusive membership benefits.

The ground floor has also been designed around everyday living. A café overlooking Bowden Village Reserve will activate the street frontage, while a bike workshop with tool storage, co-working space and dog wash has been incorporated to support daily routines and encourage interaction between residents.

"Flowe brings together my two biggest passions, creating places and creating healthier lives," Otello founder Daniel Harris said.

"We wanted to create something Adelaide hasn't seen before, a genuinely healthy building, where the way you live is lifted without even trying."

Flowe is positioned directly opposite Bowden Village Reserve and within walking distance of Bowden Railway Station and the Adelaide Entertainment Centre, placing future residents just minutes from the Adelaide CBD while remaining connected to one of the city's most established urban renewal precincts.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152022]

Otello launches wellness-focused Flowe Bowden with Adelaide-first mass timber apartment design

Chinese Economy

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GUEST OBSERVATION
When former Trade Minister Andrew Robb took to the ABC’s <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-12/andrew-robb-blames-coalition-leaders-for-toxic-china-relations/10891384" target="_blank">AM program</a> to sound off about a “toxic” relationship between Australia and China, he exposed a rippling debate about how to manage an increasingly comlex foreign and security policy challenge.
Long gone are the days of the John Howard formula that <a href="https://pmtranscripts.pmc.gov.au/release/transcript-10335" target="_blank">Australia did not have to choose</a> between its history, meaning America, and its geography, meaning China. Choices are no longer binary.
While the Robb word “toxic” may be an exaggeration, stresses in Australia-China relations are such it is clear we have entered a new and more challenging phase.
For a start, China is undergoing what is, arguably, the most testing moment of an economic transformation that began in 1978 at the third plenary of the 11th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party. This is when <a href="https://theconversation.com/world-politics-explainer-deng-xiaopings-rise-to-power-103032" target="_blank">Deng Xiaoping re-emerged</a> to initiate one of the more remarkable economic shifts of the modern era.
Apart from a hiatus caused by the Tienanmen uprising in 1989, and an economic soft-landing in the mid-1990s, China has bounded ahead economically, and has seemed unstoppable – until now.
China’s economy and political system has encountered the sort of difficulties that were inevitable. Put simply, an investment driven – as opposed to consumer-led – model is running its course, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-24/china-deleveraging-is-dead-as-34-trillion-debt-habit-roars-back" target="_blank">piling up massive government and bank debt in the process</a>.
China risks becoming caught in a <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-01-13/xi-s-leading-china-s-economy-into-the-middle-income-trap" target="_blank">“middle income trap”</a> in which a developing country, having enacted the easier reforms, gets stuck in second gear in its effort to push ahead with its economic transformation.
You can only build so many road, bridges, fast trains, airports, ports and housing developments. Many of the latter have become “ghost cities”.
At this month’s National People’s Congress, the annual session of China’s “parliament”, Premier Li Keqiang gave what was, by Chinese standards for these sort of cheerleading events, an <a href="https://www.latimes.com/world/la-fg-china-economy-growth-20190305-story" target="_blank">unusually downbeat assessment of challenges ahead</a>.
China, Li said, faces difficulties “of a kind rarely seen in many years”.
What is undeniable is that China’s economy is faltering, its ability to create millions of new jobs annually to employ a restless population is being stretched, and its management of a continuing economic transformation has come under unusual stress. <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45899310" target="_blank">US-China trade tensions</a> are not helping.
In counterpoint to the need for a more dynamic economic environment, its leadership, under President Xi Jinping, is asserting even tighter political controls when it should be giving freer rein to its entrepreneurial class.
This is the central contradiction of a model that has delivered what is the most extraordinary event in world economic history since the industrial revolution. But that model clearly has its limitations compared with those, say, of neighbouring Japan, South Korea and Taiwan.
From an Australian perspective, a slowing and, perhaps more to the point, anxious China is not good news. While economists might argue that a slowdown and thus the need for Beijing to stimulate its economy by ramping up infrastructure projects will benefit iron ore and coal exporters, <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-29/china-not-house-price-downturn-the-major-risk-deloitte/10750342" target="_blank">economic pressures more generally should be concerning</a>.
A Chinese regime that feels itself under stress from within and without may prove to be more cantankerous, and unpredictable. Australian policymakers should be mindful of the consequences of China getting through this difficult stage without mishap.
Of course, forests have been felled publishing predictions China would be unable to maintain its remarkable transformation since early glimmers of an opening to the outside world appeared in 1978, two years after Mao Zedong’s death.
This brings us back to Andrew Robb’s observation about a “toxic” relationship between Beijing and Canberra. Referring to the shelving of a plan to develop a health precinct in China to match that of the Texas Medical Centre – the world’s largest medical facility – Robb said central government officials had kyboshed the arrangement due to ongoing tensions with Australia.
Australian medical professionals would have helped establish the facility. Robb said Landbridge (the company for which Robb was consulting) was told in no uncertain terms by the seniors officials that unfortunately the relationship between Australia and China had become so toxic that this would be put in the bin.
Leaving aside Robb’s own chagrin at losing a lucrative consultancy, what is the fair judgement about the state of Australia-China relations?
And, what of Robb’s criticism of sections of the Australian security establishment, notably the Australian Strategic Policy Institute? He accused ASPI, a hothouse of China negativity, of being “a mouthpiece of the US security agencies and its defence industry”.
Given ASPI’s hawkish views on China more generally, Robb has a point.
His assessment is correct that China-Australia relations were off-track when the decision was made to scupper the Landbridge-proposed medical facility. But it is also the true that by the end of last year the relationship had been “reset”.
Foreign Minister <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-and-china-push-the-reset-button-on-an-important-relationship-106428" target="_blank">Marise Payne went to China in November</a> for what was described as a cordial exchange. This followed a two-year freeze in relations during which no senior Australian official was welcomed in Beijing.
China had made no secret of its displeasure over speeches delivered over time by both then <a href="https://www.malcolmturnbull.com.au/media/keynote-address-at-the-16th-iiss-asia-security-summit-shangri-la-dialogue" target="_blank">Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull</a> and then <a href="https://foreignminister.gov.au/speeches/Pages/2017/jb_sp_170313a.aspx" target="_blank">Foreign Minister Julie Bishop</a> in which they had criticised Beijing’s expansionist activities in the South China Sea, and, in Bishop’s case, China’s political model.
Turnbull compounded the situation when he misappropriated an expression attributed to Mao in proclaiming the People’s Republic on October 1, 1949. Australia had “stood up”, Turnbull said, when unveiling laws designed to curb foreign interference in Australian domestic affairs.
Next day, Turnbull made things worse by <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-09/malcolm-turnbull-says-he-will-stand-up-for-australia/9243274" target="_blank">repeating Mao’s words in Mandarin</a> in his description of legislation that was clearly aimed at Chinese influence.
So what of Robb’s comments? Whatever toxicity existed between Canberra and Beijing seems to have dissipated somewhat. However, real risks remain in management of what is Australia’s most challenging relationship.
It is no good pretending otherwise. China is not a benign power. It will seek to get away with what it can. It resists abiding by a roadmap for a rules-based international order, as we understand it. It will use cyber technology ruthlessly to advance its interests by dubious means, on occasions. It will “disappear” foreign nationals of those countries which incur its displeasure. It will invest in agents of influence in the Australian system. This includes universities.
All this requires a level of vigilance on the part of the security agencies, and, possibly, a new White Paper aimed specifically at just how Australia might manage a complex relationship that is likely to become, more, not less, complicated.
Bear in mind <a href="https://dfat.gov.au/trade/resources/Documents/chin.pdf" target="_blank">one in three export dollars</a> depends on a functioning relationship with China.
This is an unsatisfactory situation, but it is the reality.
On the other hand, no purpose is served by yielding to a Canberra security establishment whose machinations risk chilling a relationship that needs to be warmed up, not cooled down.
Former ambassador to China, Stephen Fitzgerald, proffered some good advice this week when he said in a <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/troy-bramston/why-canberra-must-reset-its-relationship-with-china/news-story/ab9403cb437c2f53b68ca760609908c8" target="_blank">newspaper interview</a> that Australia needed to deepen its engagement with China rather than draw back, since, unlike the US, we are “living in a Chinese world”.
That, whether we like it or not, is the case.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/113545/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
Tony Walker, Adjunct Professor, School of Communications, La Trobe University
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/chinese-australia-relations-may-not-be-toxic-but-they-do-need-to-keep-warming-up-113545" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Chinese-Australia relations may not be ‘toxic’, but they do need to keep warming up

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Chinese infrastructure investment in Australia has rarely left the headlines lately. It’s reported that telecommunications giant Huawei will likely be banned from building Australia’s 5G network on national security grounds. Hong Kong-based company CK Infrastructure’s bid to buy APA Group’s gas pipeline network is also proving controversial.
Scrutiny of the national security implications of infrastructure has been upgraded. The new Critical Infrastructure Centre is assisting the Foreign Investment Review Board in this. Though not made explicit, the main focus is China.
Greater scrutiny of investment projects is welcome, especially if community and environmental concerns are also considered. However, Australia could benefit from the availability of Chinese infrastructure financing.
Australia’s north has significant infrastructure needs. And in the major Australian cities, public transport systems are inadequate, leading to ever-longer commuting times. China also possesses world-class expertise in high-speed rail, which could be harnessed to better connect cities on the eastern seaboard.
Given the state of relations with China and Australia’s pressing infrastructure needs, the Australian government must develop a clear strategy for Chinese infrastructure investment. Instead of passively scrutinising bids, the government should proactively identify worthwhile projects and engage Chinese counterparts to finance and implement them.
Belt and Road isn’t just a political ploy
A proactive approach could benefit Australia because Chinese infrastructure investment is not as strategically directed as many assume. This is clear if we examine the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) – the centrepiece of China’s global infrastructure financing spree.
The Australian government, on security officials’ advice, has not joined the BRI. However, Belt and Road is not a carefully planned “grand strategy”. It is largely driven by the diverse activities of state-owned enterprises competing for projects and financing.
President Xi Jinping has undoubtedly used the BRI to signal China’s rise to “great power” status. But its main drivers are domestic and commercial. At its core, the BRI is an effort to alleviate China’s industrial overcapacity problem in key sectors, such as steel, glass, cement and aluminium.
Overcapacity has worsened since the global financial crisis, as Beijing sought to maintain growth by encouraging an infrastructure construction boom. State-owned enterprises (SOEs) spearheaded this. After profitable domestic opportunities had dried up, international expansion became attractive, to keep SOEs working and to find more productive outlets for China’s huge foreign currency reserves.
The BRI’s implementation has reflected competition, lobbying and compromises among ministries, provinces and SOEs. Its masterplan document – “Vision and Actions on Jointly Building Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st Century Maritime Silk Road” – is a case in point. It contains 50 “priority areas”. These cover virtually every governmental and non-governmental activity, showing little actual prioritisation.
Early statements suggested a BRI focus on Central and Southeast Asia. But since 2015 the initiative has been formally opened to all countries. This was again due to intense lobbying from provinces, SOEs and some foreign governments. All are keen to get some of the action, suggesting little strategic direction.
The vague and loose Belt and Road plan has enabled considerable scope for interests within the Chinese party-state to use it for their own, economically motivated, agendas, with little consideration for Beijing’s wider diplomatic objectives. This has generated a rather chaotic, “bottom-up” process for selecting and funding projects.
Belt and Road project ideas usually emerge from state-owned enterprises’ in-country subsidiaries. After spotting an opportunity, they try to build support in the recipient government. Occasionally, this includes bribing officials. They also often seek to obtain the local Chinese embassy’s support to improve lobbying back home.
Once agreement with the recipient government is reached, the SOE or the recipient government applies for financing from China’s policy or commercial banks. The banks determine whether to extend credit after assessing repayment capacity. The central government’s involvement is typically limited to the National Development and Reform Commission’s formal approval.
Australia still needs to manage the risks
Chinese infrastructure projects are not risk-free. The potential for misuse of key infrastructure to serve Chinese strategic agendas is clearly the Australian government’s foremost concern. But there are more immediate issues too.
Chinese banks’ lending standards are well below world “best practice”. They give limited consideration to social, environmental and labour protections when awarding financing to projects.
Tough competition between Chinese companies means they have strong incentives to cut corners and promote projects that recipients do not need. The latter can be saddled with unnecessary infrastructure and potentially unsustainable debt. Furthermore, Chinese central agencies’ capacity to regulate SOEs’ offshore activities is weak, so they cannot be relied upon to manage these problems.
Closer scrutiny of investment proposals is, therefore, clearly necessary. So, too, is tight regulation of project implementation. Australian regulators should also ensure Chinese projects adequately resolve social, environmental and labour concerns.
The fragmented nature of Chinese investments provides opportunities, however, for selective engagement that could serve the wider public interest. This should form part of a clear Australian strategy towards China based on a nuanced analysis of both the threats and opportunities of this multifaceted relationship.
Shahar Hameiri, Associate Professor of International Politics, The University of Queensland
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-driving-chinese-infrastructure-investment-overseas-and-how-can-we-make-the-most-of-it-98697" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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What's driving Chinese infrastructure investment overseas and how can we make the most of it?

The risks and opportunities of our deepening economic ties with China: RBA's Philip Lowe

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This year the Chinese Communist Party will tackle some of it’s biggest economic hurdles.
In 2017, we saw the consolidation of China’s power and influence globally, and of Communist Party leader Xi Jinping’s power nationally. This year, the party will try to use this to tackle some of its biggest economic hurdles such as financial risk, environmental pollution and maintaining social cohesion.
A first and overriding priority will be managing and preventing major financial risks within the Chinese economy. China will continue to clean up and tighten controls over its financial sector.
Beijing has already banned risk-laden <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2017/11/02/cryptocurrency-exchanges-officially-dead-in-china/#79cae9a2a839" target="_blank">Bitcoin from its financial system</a>, and <a href="http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-12/25/c_136851284.htm" target="_blank">the government says</a> it will maintain a “proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy” for 2018.
This is in line with moves earlier in 2017 to curb credit growth and consolidate the country’s <a href="https://www.caixinglobal.com/2017-11-27/financial-regulators-seek-to-tame-chinas-15-trillion-wild-west-101176493" target="_blank">100 trillion yuan (US$15 trillion) financial services asset-management industry</a> under a single regulatory umbrella.
Regulators have also issued <a href="http://www.scmp.com/news/china/economy/article/2124964/china-issues-new-code-conduct-tame-overseas-investors" target="_blank">a 36-point code of conduct</a> for the country’s private enterprises to follow when investing overseas. This is part of a move to clip the wings of China’s most aggressive global deal makers, firms like HNA Group and Fosun International. These businesses responded enthusiastically to the government’s “going out” policy to link China to the rest of the global economy, launched at the beginning of the century.
On the one hand, China has banned investments in gambling and “sensitive” industries and restricted investments in property, hotel, film and sports. But projects linked to China’s ambitious Belt and Road initiative <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-18/china-further-limits-overseas-investment-in-push-to-reduce-risk" target="_blank">are actively encouraged</a>. So 2018 should see a continuation of China’s expanding economic influence globally through infrastructure and other major projects.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201458/original/file-20180110-48505-14mg7t0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201458/original/file-20180110-48505-14mg7t0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Beijing’s agenda is clear and the message from the centre is tightly controlled. How Hwee Young/AAP
<h2>Tackling pollution, of all kinds</h2>
In line with the party’s focus on stability and risk minimisation is a clear determination to move away from high-speed growth to high-quality growth. “Quality” here means an economy that is cleaner and more user friendly.
The government is trying to reduce pollution. Measures to close down polluting factories and make local officials more accountable for environmental damage <a href="https://cen.acs.org/articles/95/i26/China-looks-restore-blue-skies" target="_blank">are starting to make a difference</a>.
A major component of the shift to a cleaner economy is China’s determination to free itself <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-trade-coal/china-oct-coal-imports-fall-to-21-28-million-tonnes-on-air-pollution-campaign-idUSKBN1D80FG" target="_blank">from any reliance upon carbon imports</a>. This has potentially major implications for the Australian economy, which has done so well over the past few decades largely because of its commodity exports to China.
China is also no longer willing to accept imports of Australian waste, leaving Australia with the question of how else to deal with <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-10/china-ban-on-foreign-rubbish-leaves-recycling-industry-in-a-mess/9243184" target="_blank">its accumulating stockpiles</a>.
Social stability for economic and political stability
In an unusual move during last year’s annual end-of-year economic convention, the government <a href="http://www.scmp.com/news/china/economy/article/2125135/big-picture-chinas-most-important-economic-meeting-year" target="_blank">detailed concerns from the wider public</a> on issues such as online scams, sex discrimination in the workplace and a lack of kindergarten services in certain regions. This reflects the party’s concern with social cohesion.
Maintaining a harmonious society has long been a concern of China’s leaders. In 2018, the anti-poverty campaign - one of Xi Jinping’s pet projects - will accelerate, with millions of rural poor being relocated <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jan/07/china-move-millions-people-homes-anti-poverty-drive" target="_blank">to new housing with water and power</a>. This will not only boost GDP and economic growth figures, it’s also aimed at promoting support for the party and its leaders.
Chinese leadership’s emphasis on social harmony extends to supporting the party in its policy endeavours. A series of recent measures have been aimed at strengthening party organisations in <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-ngos/china-to-strengthen-communist-partys-role-in-non-govt-bodies-idUSKCN10X07C" target="_blank">business and civil society organisations</a>.
In line with existing provisions <a href="http://www.fdi.gov.cn/1800000121_39_4814_0_7" target="_blank">in China’s Company Law</a>, these measures seek to ensure that all organisations in China (local and foreign, commercial and non-profit) make room within the organisation for the operations of a Communist Party cell. This allows the party to monitor and influence the operations of any organisation.
The rolling out of a social credit system is also aimed at monitoring and influencing the behaviour of <a href="http://www.wired.co.uk/article/chinese-government-social-credit-score-privacy-invasion" target="_blank">both organisations and individuals</a>. It operates by awarding social credit points for good social behaviour, whether it be corporate philanthropy or an individual picking up rubbish on the kerbside. It also deducts points for bad behaviour, such as traffic law violations, failing to pay bills on time or domestic violence. There are even <a href="http://www.scmp.com/news/china/economy/article/2095876/new-credit-rating-system-gives-china-big-carrot-even-bigger-stick" target="_blank">“blacklists”</a> for the worst offenders.
Beijing’s agenda is clear and the message from the centre is tightly controlled. But the messiness and the unknowns will lie in its local implementation.
China has always struggled, and always will struggle, with the question of how to balance direction from a central government with local implementation for local circumstances.
For example, a recent decree requiring all local areas to move away from coal fired heating, towards natural gas, hit a snag when thousands of houses and schools were <a href="http://www.scmp.com/news/china/policies-politics/article/2124800/why-chinas-winter-fuel-crisis-cold-hard-lesson-law" target="_blank">left without heating in freezing conditions</a> in northern China. It forced authorities to back-track on implementing the policy.
The key for the government will be to strike a balance between reform and preserving stability. Aggressive reforms will be duly countered by other policies if they are seen as posing risks to economic stability.
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/89911/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">If successful, China’s reforms will allow its economy to take the lead in adapting to a dynamic world. But the sheer size of its ambitions (both global and local) also contains the risk that failures, if they occur, could have devastating impacts.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/alice-de-jonge-118840" target="_blank">Alice de Jonge</a>, Senior Lecturer, International Law; Asian Business Law, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/monash-university-1065" target="_blank">Monash University</a>
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-we-can-expect-from-chinas-economy-in-2018-89911" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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What we can expect from China's economy in 2018

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GUEST OBSERVER
There was little change in most of China’s key monthly indicators in May. ‘Old economy’ measures, such as industrial production and fixed asset investment were flat or slightly higher (in real terms), while real retail sales were marginally weaker.
As we suggested last month, these indicators suggest slightly softer economic conditions in Q2, compared with the relatively strong rate in Q1. Our forecasts remain unchanged, with China’s economy to grow by 6.5% in 2017, before slowing to 6.25% next year and 6.0% in 2019. China’s industrial production grew by 6.5% yoy in May – unchanged from the rate recorded in April. Construction related heavy industrial sectors (such as crude steel and cement ) saw much weaker growth. China’s fixed asset investment recorded slightly weaker growth in May – at around 7.9% yoy (from 8.3% in April). That said, weaker inflation trends for investment goods meant that real fixed asset investment was slightly higher (1.5% in May, up from 0.9% in April). Real estate investment has remained comparatively strong, however we continue to anticipate a slowdown in construction activity this year – given tighter financial and policy constraints – which should flow through to industrial production and demand for Australian commodity exports. China’s trade balance edged slightly higher in May – to US$40.8 billion (from US$38.0 billion in April). Both imports and exports were higher month-on-month (with the increase in exports stronger). Commodity prices have had a major impact on import values (and likely export values as well given producer price trends) – with values likely to slow across the second half of the year – in line with weaker commodity price forecasts. Growth in retail sales was unchanged in May – with nominal sales rising by 10.7% yoy. The uptick in inflation during the month meant that real retail sales were slightly weaker – albeit stronger than the growth across most of 2016. Consumer confidence pushed higher in April – up to 113.4 points (the highest level recorded since June 2007). Chinese monetary policy remained comparatively stable in across May and early June – with the 7 day Shibor trading in a narrow range of just under 9 basis points around the 2.9% mark. This represents around 40 basis points of tightening since the start of the year. Our monetary policy views are unchanged – we believe that the PBoC has a tightening bias, but will be cautious in doing so, in an attempt to manage the risks associated with the country’s high corporate debt levels.
China’s industrial production grew by 6.5% yoy in May – unchanged from the rate recorded in April. This was stronger than market expectations (6.4% in the Bloomberg poll and 6.3% in the Thomson Reuters poll) and higher than the trend seen across much of the past two years.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/19/3a.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/06/19/3a.png" width="700" height="474"> Construction related heavy industrial sectors saw much weaker growth – with crude steel output rising by just 1.8% yoy to 72.3 million tonnes (down from record production levels in April), while cement production rose by just 0.5% yoy. In contrast, motor vehicle production was stronger – up by 4.1% yoy in May (compared with 0.3% in April), while growth in electricity output eased to 5.0% yoy (from 5.4% previously). There were mixed trends in China’s main industrial surveys in May. The official NBS PMI survey was unchanged at 51.2 points. In contrast, the Caixin Markit PMI fell further – down to a slightly negative 49.6 points (from 50.3 points in April).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/19/3b.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/06/19/3b.png" width="700" height="482">
China’s fixed asset investment recorded slightly weaker growth in May – at around 7.9% yoy (from 8.3% in April). That said, the decline in prices for investment goods probably outpaced the fall in nominal investment – given recent trends in producer prices and commodity markets – meaning that real fixed asset investment has trended slightly higher. Our estimate suggests real investment grew by 1.5% in May, up from 0.9% in April.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/19/4a.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/06/19/4a.png" width="700" height="468"> Private sector investment edged slightly higher in May – rising by 6.6% yoy(on a three month moving average basis) – albeit this remains below the growth rate of early 2016 (prior to the plunge mid-year). In contrast, investment by state owned enterprises dipped to 12.2% yoy (3mma), from 13.7% previously. Despite measures designed to cool the sector, investment in real estate has continued to grow strongly – rising by 8.8% yoy (3mma) in May – down from 9.3% last month. Manufacturing investment was slightly stronger – at 5.3% yoy (3mma) from 4.8% previously. Efforts by authorities at central and local levels to control property prices (including larger down payments, higher lending rates and purchasing restrictions) are yet to show widespread results. Month-on-month prices rose by 0.5% for new builds and 0.7% for existing properties in April (both stronger than March) according to NBS data. That said, unofficial data for May (released by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences) suggests that prices in some key cities – including Beijing and Tianjin – may have fallen in May. New residential construction starts recorded weaker growth in May – at 8.4% yoy (down from 16.6% in April) – although it is unclear if this a slowing trend or merely volatility in the data. On a three month moving average basis, the slowdown was less pronounced – at 15.1% yoy (down from 17.5%). We continue to anticipate a slowdown in construction activity this year – given tighter financial and policy constraints – which should flow through industrial production and demand for Australian commodity exports.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/19/4b.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/06/19/4b.png" width="700" height="474">
China’s trade balance edged slightly higher in May – to US$40.8 billion (from US$38.0 billion in April). Both imports and exports were higher month-on-month (with the increase in exports stronger). China’s imports were stronger in May – at US$150.2 billion (compared with US$142 billion in April) – with this representing a year-on-year increase of 14.6%. This increase was in part driven by commodity price trends – with the RBA Index of Commodity Prices increasing by 29% yoy in May. This means that import values are likely to slow across the second half of the year – in line with forecasts of weaker commodity price growth.
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<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/06/19/5b.png" width="700" height="491">
 In contrast, the overall volume of imports has increased more modestly. While import values have risen by around 19% in the first five months of the year, our estimate of volumes is just 6.4% higher. Trends continue to diverge when it comes to the import volumes of key commodities. Coal imports recorded strong year-on-year growth – at almost 17% – although the May level was 18% below last November’s peak. The surge in coal imports – particularly across the second half of last year – was driven by government policy that constrained domestic supply, and there remains considerable uncertainty around the longer term – with both domestic demand and supply falling (the latter through enforced mine closures). Crude oil imports rose by 15% yoy in May, while iron ore imports rose by 5.5% yoy – despite iron ore stocks reaching record levels in May (while prices for ore continued to fall). Copper imports fell by 9.3% yoy – a trend evident for the past nine months.
The value of China’s exports rose in May – totalling US$191.0 billion (from US$180 billion in March) – an increase of 8.7% yoy.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/19/6a.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/06/19/6a.png" width="700" height="473"> The confidence of exporters has remained relatively flat in recent months – despite the uptick in export values – with the new export orders measure in the NBS PMI survey at 50.7 points in May (up from 50.6 points previously) – below the near five year high of 51.0 points in March. Exports to China’s major trading partners continue to show diverging trends. There was strong growth for the United States – up by 11.7% yoy – and the European Union (9.7% yoy), while exports to other East Asian markets fell by 2.0% yoy. This result continues to be influenced by the historic distortion in Hong Kong-China trade data. Exports to non-Hong Kong Asia rose by 4.1% yoy in May – led by increases in trade with South Korea, Vietnam and Indonesia – while exports to Hong Kong fell by 10.6% yoy. So far this year, there has been a close correlation between the trade values reported by both China and Hong Kong customs – for the first time since 2010. In the first four months of 2017, the total difference between the two totalled RMB 1.9 million, compared with RMB 13.7 billion in the same period of 2016, RMB 12 billion in 2015 and RMB 24.6 billion in 2014. In part this discrepancy reflected capital outflows disguised as trade activity – through methods such as false invoicing – something that Chinese authorities have clamped down on more recently. That said, the overstated historical exports paints a more negative view on current trade data. While Chinese data suggests that exports to Hong Kong fell by over 15% yoy in April, Hong Kong customs data recorded an increase of 4.3% yoy.
Growth in retail sales was unchanged in May – with nominal sales rising by 10.7% yoy. The uptick in inflation (see below) during the month meant that real retail sales were slightly weaker – at around 9.4% yoy (down from 9.7% previously) – although this rate was stronger than the growth recorded across most of 2016.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/19/7a.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/06/19/7a.png" width="700" height="483"> Despite real sales dipping below 10% last month, consumer confidence pushed higher in April – up to 113.4 points (the highest level recorded since June 2007). China’s headline inflation edged slightly higher in May – with the Consumer Price Index pushing up to 1.5% yoy (from 1.2% in April). Food prices have continued to contract – contributing to the recent weakness in inflation trends. Aggregate food prices fell by 1.6% yoy in May (compared with 3.5% in April and 4.4% in March). Prices for meat &amp; poultry, eggs and fresh vegetables fell year-on-year – albeit vegetables decline was smaller in May – at 6.3% yoy versus 22% in April. In contrast, the stronger trend for non-food prices has continued, with the index rising by 2.3% yoy in May (compared with 2.4% in April) – more than double the rate recorded a year ago. Fuel prices have been a major contributor, with double digit growth for the past six months (10.2% yoy in May).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/19/7b.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/06/19/7b.png" width="700" height="500"> The acceleration in producer prices has already started to slow – with the producer price index increasing by 5.5% yoy in May (down from 6.4% previously). Commodity prices flowing through the industrial sector has a major influence – with growth in the RBA Index of Commodity Prices slowing to 29% yoy in May (compared with 36% in April). The overall index is below late 2016 peaks and has trended lower, meaning that producer price growth is likely to be less significant in coming months.
Credit issuance data was not available at the time of writing. Chinese monetary policy remained comparatively stable in across May and early June – with the 7 day Shibor trading in a narrow range of just under 9 basis points around the 2.9% mark. This represents around 40 basis points of tightening since the start of the year.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/19/8.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/06/19/8.png" width="700" height="519"> The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) kept the rates for the Standing Lending Facility, Medium Term Lending Facility and 7 day reverse repos on hold during the past month, while it marginally increased liquidity in May (via open market operations) – by around RMB 20 billion (compared with RMB 210 billion in April). Our monetary policy views are unchanged – we believe that the PBoC has a tightening bias, but will be cautious in doing so, in an attempt to manage the risks associated with the country’s high corporate debt levels.
<a href="https://business.nab.com.au/author/gerard-burg/" target="_blank">Gerard Burg</a> is a Senior Economist - Asia at NAB Group Economics
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China residential construction starts slower: Gerard Burg

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2016 was a watershed moment for China’s commercial real estate market, heralding the next phase of its transformation into one of the major global destinations for property investors and developers, according to Real Capital Analytics.
While development remains a prominent feature of its property market, higher deal volumes for standing assets are a sign of the maturity and depth of China’s investment market.
The confidence of Chinese developers has risen yet again.
The historic peak of land sales by volume was 2013 and 2016 came close second with $417.5b (RMB 2.8t) transacted.
In line with the growing demand, land prices have spiked.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/08/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-08%20at%201.27.05%20pm.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/08/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-08%20at%201.27.05%20pm.jpg" alt="">
The sharp price growth has been particularly obvious in Tier 1 cities with 19% growth since 2013.
Land values in Tier 1.5 and 2 cities have risen significantly too, by 61% and 49%, respectively.
China became the Asia Pacific region’s largest investment market for income-producing real estate for the first time, overtaking Japan and Australia.
This is a very prominent milestone in the development of the Chinese real estate market.
As highlighted earlier in the report, a total of $36.5b of real estate, excluding development sites, changed hands in China in 2016.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/08/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-08%20at%201.27.13%20pm.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/08/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-08%20at%201.27.13%20pm.jpg" alt="">
China also claimed another record in 2016 as the Asia Pacific region’s top destination for foreign investors, who completed $10.2b of transactions there last year.
The value of transactions by foreign investors has doubled over the last five years.
The largest foreign investment in China, as well as the largest single asset office transaction in the world, was ARA AM’s purchase of Shanghai Century Link for $3.0b in Q4’16.
Another facet of China’s robust growth is the expansion of Chinese real estate investors and developers abroad.
RCA data shows that $34.7b was invested abroad by Chinese investors in 2016.
This is 245% above the 10-year average and 51% higher than 2015.
However, the strong growth does not come without its challenges.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/08/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-08%20at%201.27.21%20pm.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/08/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-08%20at%201.27.21%20pm.jpg" alt="">
Speculation about new capital control rules squeezing the pipeline of Chinese outbound capital is causing some concern among market participants both in China and internationally.
It is reasonable to expect that Chinese outbound capital will slow down somewhat in 2017.
Still, investment and development activity within China’s borders is set to stride into 2017 and beyond.
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China's real estate market continues to mature as confidence rises

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GUEST OBSERVER
China records a comparatively strong finish to 2016, but Trump trade uncertainty adds downside risk to our moderate easing forecast for 2017.
China’s official national accounts data recorded a modest pickup in growth in Q4, with the economy expanding by 6.8% yoy (up from 6.7% recorded in each of the first three quarters). For the full year, growth was the slowest since 1990, but remains in line with a soft landing, as the growth model gradually shifts towards domestic consumption. 
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<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/01/24/Screen%20Shot%202017-01-24%20at%2012.39.51%20PM.png" alt="">
NAB’s forecasts for Chinese economic growth are unchanged – at 6.5% in 2017 and 6.25% in 2018. That said, we continue to note risks to these forecasts – most recently the uncertainty regarding US trade policy under the Trump administration, the high levels of corporate sector debt and risks of price bubbles in real estate markets (despite recent cooling in price growth).
China’s industrial production growth was marginally softer in December – at 6.0% yoy (compared with 6.2% yoy in November) – essentially remaining around recent trend levels. Recent trends in PMI surveys point to improved conditions for manufacturers since the midpoint of 2015.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/24/Screen%20Shot%202017-01-24%20at%2012.41.01%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/01/24/Screen%20Shot%202017-01-24%20at%2012.41.01%20PM.png" alt="">
China’s fixed asset investment slowed considerably in December, despite real estate and manufacturing recording stronger growth. Construction activity is yet to show clear signs of slowing – with a fresh surge in construction starts in December – despite weakening house price and sales trends.
China’s trade surplus narrowed again in December, with import values recording a stronger month-on-month increase than exports. Commodity prices have surged in recent months – contributing to the rising trend in import values – with coal and iron ore prices remaining elevated. 
Export values fell in year-on-year terms, however the sizeable discrepancy between Hong Kong and Chinese trade data (due to unauthorised capital outflows disguised as trade activity in late 2015) makes underlying trends in trade flows extremely difficult to ascertain.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/24/Screen%20Shot%202017-01-24%20at%2012.42.07%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/01/24/Screen%20Shot%202017-01-24%20at%2012.42.07%20PM.png" alt="">
Growth in retail sales edged slightly higher in December, but stronger retail price inflation has kept real sales below 10% yoy.
China’s credit expanded strongly in 2016 – with new aggregate financing totalling RMB 17.7 trillion (an increase of almost 15% from 2015). This was the largest expansion on record (exceeding the previous peak in 2013). Managing the growth of China’s already considerable debt pile – comparable to higher debt advanced economy levels – remains a key challenge for Chinese authorities in 2017 and beyond. 
China’s official national accounts data recorded a modest pickup in growth in Q4, with the economy expanding by 6.8% yoy (up from 6.7% recorded in each of the first three quarters). This growth rate was slightly stronger than market expectations (at 6.7% in the Bloomberg survey).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/24/Screen%20Shot%202017-01-24%20at%2012.43.10%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/01/24/Screen%20Shot%202017-01-24%20at%2012.43.10%20PM.png" alt="">
For the full year, growth was the slowest since 1990, but remains in line with a soft landing, as the growth model gradually shifts towards domestic consumption.
The economic influence of the mid-year construction boom appears to have faded, with an acceleration in service sector growth across Q3 and Q4 – with services growing by 8.1% yoy (up from 7.8% in Q3). That said, property sales may have contributed to this trend – we will be looking closely at non-real estate and non-financial services data when this is released in the next few days.
NAB’s forecasts for Chinese economic growth are unchanged – we anticipate a slight easing in growth over the next two years, to average 6.5% in 2017 and 6.25% in 2018. That said, we continue to note risks to these forecasts – most recently the uncertainty regarding US trade policy under the Trump administration, the high levels of corporate sector debt and risks of price bubbles in real estate markets (despite recent cooling in price growth).
China’s industrial production growth was marginally softer in December – at 6.0% yoy (compared with 6.2% yoy in November) – essentially remaining around recent trend levels. This growth rate was below market expectations (at 6.2% yoy in the Bloomberg survey).
There was slower growth in construction related industrial products – with crude steel output rising by 3.2% yoy (down from 5.0% in November) and cement production falling by 1.2% yoy (compared with growth of 3.7% yoy previously). That said, at 67.2 million tonnes, crude steel output is not far below recent peaks.
Trends were more mixed in other industrial sectors. Motor vehicle output rose by 12.7% yoy (down from 17.8% yoy in November), electricity output was largely unchanged at 6.9%, and coal output was down 3.0% yoy. That said, coal production has risen considerably in recent months, following the easing of government imposed restrictions.
There was a slight divergence in trends in China’s main industrial surveys in December. The official NBS PMI survey was slightly softer, at 51.4 points (from 51.7 points in November) – albeit this level was the highest in over two years. In contrast, the Caixin Markit PMI pushed higher, to 51.9 points – the strongest reading since January 2013. Recent trends in these surveys point to improved conditions for manufacturers since the midpoint of 2015.
China’s fixed asset investment slowed considerably in December – with growth at 6.3% yoy (down from 8.3% yoy in November). The growth in state-owned enterprise investment – which surged across the middle of the year – slowed to 13.2% yoy (on a three month moving average basis) (down from 17.7% in November), while private sector investment has somewhat recovered from weak levels – at 5.0% yoy 3mma in December (from 4.3% previously).
Key sectors for fixed asset investment – such as real estate and manufacturing – recorded stronger investment growth in December – up by 10.0% yoy and 7.2% yoy respectively (on a three month moving average basis).
With real estate investment holding up, construction activity is yet to show clear signs of slowing – with a fresh surge in construction starts in December. Residential construction starts rose by 14.4% yoy (three month moving average) – up from -0.1% yoy in November, despite weakening house price and sales trends.
Official Chinese new house price data shows rose by 13.7% yoy nationally (compared with a peak of 14.0% yoy in November) – but just 0.6% month- on-month – the slowest rate of increase since February, and well below the 1.7% yoy peak across September and October. Growth in house sales has slowed – at 13.6% yoy 3mma in December (down from a recent peak of 38.8% in April) but the volume of sales has remained strong.
This suggests that it is still too early to know if policy restrictions introduced by a range of local governments are having a significant effect on the broader real estate sector – although recent price trends are encouraging. 
China’s trade surplus narrowed again in December, with import values recording a stronger month-on-month increase than exports. Overall, the surplus was US$40.8 billion (compared with US$44.2 billion in November).
China’s imports rose moderately in December – up by 3.1% yoy to US$168.6 billion (compared with US$149.3 billion in November). This result was in line with market expectations, with respondents to the Bloomberg survey anticipating a 3.0% yoy increase.
Commodity prices have surged in recent months – contributing to the rising trend in import values. The RBA Index of Commodity Prices rose by 42% yoy in December, with coal and iron ore prices remaining elevated. In contrast, import volumes rose comparatively modestly, up by 1.2% yoy (according to China Customs data).
Despite easing policy measures that restricted domestic coal production (which led to global coal prices falling from recent peaks), coal imports remained strong in December – up 52% yoy. We expect imports to decline in coming months, as domestic shipments pick up.
Other key commodities exhibited mixed trends. Crude oil imports rose by 9.6% yoy, while both iron ore and copper imports fell in December – down by 7.6% yoy and 7.7% yoy respectively. 
The value of China’s exports rose considerably month-on-month, to US$209.4 billion in December, but was well below the levels of a year earlier – down 6.1% yoy. This result was weaker than market expectations (at -4.0% in the Bloomberg survey), but may be subject to underlying data errors.
The confidence of exporters has remained relatively stable in recent months – with the new export order measure of the NBS PMI survey at 50.1 points (from 50.3 points in November) – a relatively neutral outcome.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/24/Screen%20Shot%202017-01-24%20at%2012.44.10%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/01/24/Screen%20Shot%202017-01-24%20at%2012.44.10%20PM.png" alt="">
Once again, the trends for exports by major trading partners were quite mixed – with steep falls in Asia contrasting with growth in the value of shipments to the United States. Exports to the US rose by 5.1% yoy (compared with 7.3% last month). Exports to the European Union fell by 4.7% yoy, while the value of exports to East Asia dropped by almost 14% yoy. 
Unauthorised capital outflows (disguised as trade flows) in late 2015 are distorting trade data. Exports to non-Hong Kong East Asia rose by 1.3% yoy in December, while exports to Hong Kong fell by over 26% yoy. The disparity between Hong Kong Customs and China Customs data was particularly stark in December 2015 – with Hong Kong reporting imports of just US$23.7 billion compared with China’s report exports of US$45.9 billion.
This discrepancy is larger than the year-on-year fall in exports for December 2016 – making underlying trends in trade flows extremely difficult to ascertain. 
Growth in retail sales edged slightly higher in December – increasing by 10.9% yoy (compared with 10.8% previously). Retail price inflation has been moving higher in recent months – resulting in weaker growth in real sales. Retail prices rose by 1.5% yoy – unchanged from last month – meaning that real retail sales growth was 9.3% yoy in December (up from 9.2% previously).
Consumer confidence was marginally weaker in December – at 108.4 points (down from 108.6 points) however this remains well within positive territory, and well above the neutral levels recorded in the early part of 2016.
China’s headline inflation was marginally softer in December – with the Consumer Price Index increasing by 2.1% yoy (compared with 2.3%% in November). 
Food price inflation was comparatively modest in December, with aggregate prices increasing by 2.4% yoy (down from 4.0% previously). This softer trend reflected much weaker price growth for fresh vegetables – at 2.6% yoy (compared with almost 16% last month). 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/24/Screen%20Shot%202017-01-24%20at%2012.45.30%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/01/24/Screen%20Shot%202017-01-24%20at%2012.45.30%20PM.png" alt="">
Non-food prices have continued to track higher in recent months, with prices rising by 2.0% yoy in December (up from 1.8% in November) – the strongest increase since November 2011. Fuel prices, utility costs and residence costs have all trended higher since the middle of the year.
Producer prices jumped in December – rising by 5.5% yoy (compared with 3.3% previously) – the strongest increase since September 2011. Commodity price trends had a major influence – with December 2015 marking the trough of the recent cycle. The RBA Index of Commodity Prices surged by 42% yoy in December (up from 27% in November). 
China’s credit expanded strongly in 2016 – with new aggregate financing totalling RMB 17.7 trillion (an increase of almost 15% from 2015). This was the largest expansion on record (exceeding the previous peak in 2013). The largest share of new credit was issued in the first half of the year.
Bank loans accounted for around two-thirds of China’s new credit in 2016 – totalling RMB 11.9 trillion. This level was around 11.8% larger than the previous year. Almost 60% of new bank credit was issued in the first half, while Chinese firms continued to pay down foreign denominated debt across the year.
Major components of the shadow banking sector – trust and entrusted loans – accounted for the second largest share of new credit at just over RMB 3.0 trillion. There was strong growth in shadow banking loans – particularly in the second half of the year – following on from two years of weaker activity due to regulatory pressures.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/24/Screen%20Shot%202017-01-24%20at%2012.46.46%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/01/24/Screen%20Shot%202017-01-24%20at%2012.46.46%20PM.png" alt="">
Corporate bonds also accounted for a significant share of new credit – at RMB 3.0 trillion, however growth in new net corporate bond issuance was minimal – at just 2.1% in 2016. While growth in corporate bonds was strong in the first half of the year, second half issuance was considerably weaker year-on-year.
Managing the growth of China’s already considerable debt pile – comparable to higher debt advanced economy levels – remains a key challenge for the Chinese authorities in 2017 and beyond. 
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Gerard Burg is an economist, on Asia, at the National Australia Bank. 
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Trump trade uncertainty adds downside risk to Chinese forecast: NAB's Gerard Burg

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/69895/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
Foreign reserves at the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), China’s central bank, fell for the fifth consecutive month in November, dropping by US$69.1 billion to US$3.1 trillion. This is a level not seen since 2011, with reserves shrinking more than US$500 billion this year alone.
The Chinese government has moved to clamp down on capital flight, by introducing restrictions on foreign investment and curbing gold imports. But it could go further as the yuan stares down its worst year since 2005, making it harder for Chinese companies to borrow and repay debt. 
The decline in China’s foreign reserves is not a blip, but has roots that go deep and could affect the ability of Chinese consumers and companies to be our customers. So the introduction of currency controls, especially if China revisits the quotas for Chinese individuals to spend on foreign goods or travel, is something to watch. 
<h2>Why China is bleeding foreign exchange</h2>
The story goes back to August 2015, when China devalued the yuan in an apparent attempt to boost exports and growth. The devaluation probably would not have drawn so much attention if not for the fact that it appeared to trigger a huge outflow of capital from China. 
It all has to do with historical patterns of borrowing by Chinese companies (and some wealthy individuals). During the boom years of export-and-investment-led economic growth, investing in China offered a good return (especially compared to what was available in Western economies). China’s shadow banking system grew and flourished – offering even greater returns to Chinese firms and individuals. 
At the time it made sense to borrow at near-zero rates in the US and Europe, convert the money to yuan and invest in China. But the Chinese government brought this trade undone when it devalued the yuan back in August 2015. Borrowing in US dollars then selling those dollars to buy yuan-denominated assets no longer works. 
It is now happening in reverse – yuan-denominated assets are being sold at record rates to buy US dollars in order to pay back old loans before it becomes too late. This outward flow of yuan generates downward pressure on the Chinese currency, which recently fell to its lowest levels in years. This is creating a feedback loop. 
Before 2015, the PBoC bought dollars from Chinese companies that earned export income, printing lots of new yuan to do so. This money then circulated within the Chinese banking system and supplied the credit for China’s huge expansion. 
But now the PBoC is selling down its reserves of US dollars to prop up the yuan. This also places pressure on Chinese banks, and may force the PBoC to allow banks to free up more of their available capital. These deteriorating conditions in the banking sector, along with China’s fast-rising private-sector debt, increase the cost of capital and put further pressure on foreign exchange reserves. 
<h2>The economy isn’t helping</h2>
Further adding to the pressure since 2015 has been Chinese government encouragement for local companies to “go global”. Often such investments have been supported by subsidised loans or grants from China’s Export-Import Bank (China Exim Bank). At the same time, foreign investment into China has dwindled as labour and other costs have risen. 
Both of these phenomena have been part of the Chinese government’s overall strategy of internationalisation, while moving away from an economy dependent on exports and towards an economy based much more on services and domestic consumption. The problem is, however, that the hoped-for rise in domestic consumption has not eventuated at anything like the rate necessary. 
A crackdown on luxury consumption – seen as a sign of corruption by senior Communist Party members and officials – has further detracted from the desired growth in domestic consumption. 
<h2>What all this means for us</h2>
Even with the restrictions put in place, there isn’t a total yuan lockdown. It is hard to prevent the movement of yuan out of China through the offshore yuan market. The Chinese banking authorities have fewer ways of preventing such transfers, especially as the government pushes the yuan as an alternative to traditional US dollar settlements. 
But it’s likely China and its people will be much less able to afford direct purchases of Australian goods (iron ore, coal) and services (education, tourism) in the near future. This does not mean that Chinese demand for Australian goods will fall, but things might have to change. 
It means that instead of just “selling stuff” to China, Australia needs to engage with the Chinese economy – to understand what that economy really needs. Australia has know-how and technology in health care, education, agriculture and energy that China needs and wants.
With the limitations of Chinese currency and investment controls, Australia may need to be more generous in its willingness to transfer some of that technology and know-how. For its part, China has to be much better at ensuring that the intellectual property involved in such transfers and the returns from them are properly protected. This could be the start of something brand new.
Alice de Jonge is senior lecturer, International Law; Asian Business Law, Monash University and author for The Conversation. She can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/alice-de-jonge-118840" target="_blank">here</a>.
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