Repeat buyers are one of the strongest measures of confidence in any apartment development.

At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/era-newcastle-west-124-126-bull-street-newcastle-west-nsw-2302">ERA</a> in Newcastle West, some purchasers are returning to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gwh">GWH</a> after living at the developer's One Apartments. Their decision to purchase again was driven by the quality of life they found after moving into their first GWH home.

Keith Wilton had spent years living in a house in East Maitland before deciding it was time for a change. Apartment living had always been on his radar, but he was selective about what he wanted.

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/FH_1EzB-1vs?si=XScVlP1ERsTDJoME" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>

"I had some boxes I wanted to tick," he says.

Keith points to the open-plan design, generous outdoor areas and considered inclusions as key reasons One Apartments worked for him.

“One of those things was a nice indoor open plan area, but also I wanted a nice outdoor open area that I could entertain on in summer or Christmases or birthdays,” he says.

He also found value in the smaller details, from integrated appliances to shared resident spaces including the pool, cinema and rooftop areas.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356818]

After comparing several developments, he chose One Apartments because of GWH's longstanding local reputation and his own experience working with the developer on a commercial project more than a decade earlier.

"I knew that they were local, that the quality of the build was going to be up there. I'd looked at other apartment complexes around and close by, and I just knew that here was a better decision location wise."

Today, Keith says the move has completely changed how he experiences Newcastle.

"I enjoy living in this location because it's more of a lifestyle change. That Newcastle city living where you can walk to restaurants and bars and even beaches and parks and even shopping across the road."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356828]

Beyond the location, he says it's the sense of community that has surprised him most.

"Everyone loves living here because they chose to live here, but everyone looks out for each other. It's a real great community feel here."

For Aimee and Lyle Goodman, the journey started almost by chance.

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/tsioMLcnjas?si=zq-ys3JuWpfa5hFv" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>

The couple happened to be having coffee in Newcastle when they noticed the site where One Apartments was about to begin construction.

"We were aware GWH was planning a development," Aimee says. "We made one phone call and things moved pretty quickly after that."

As busy business owners, they initially thought apartment living would simply reduce the maintenance that came with larger homes. Instead, it fundamentally changed how they spent time together.

"We actually catch up more as a family now," Aimee says.

"We've had homes with big yards and lots of space, but everyone ended up in different rooms. Here we'll have dinner together, the kids can play, and we spend far more quality time together."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356829]

Lyle says their confidence came from GWH's reputation within Newcastle's building industry.

"I know people who've worked across different apartment projects, and whenever GWH came up the feedback was always the same. They're rock solid. They're quality."

That confidence only grew throughout the buying process.

"One of the things that really impressed us with GWH was the whole process, was the communication," Lyle says. "It was consistent, it was regular, there was no problem if we had some weird questions, there was no problems in getting answers."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351104]

Aimee says one moment stood out.

"The project actually finished on time. We realised we needed to hurry up and sell our house because everything was happening exactly when they said it would."

The positive experience at One Apartments ultimately gave all three buyers the confidence to purchase again with GWH, this time at ERA.

Their confidence reflects what many buyers are seeking in today's apartment market. Location remains important, but so too does certainty around delivery, quality and long-term liveability.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356822]

ERA builds on those foundations with 280 one, two and three-bedroom apartments across two landmark towers in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/newcastle-west-nsw-2302">Newcastle West</a>.&nbsp;

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fk-australia">Fender Katsalidis</a>, the project will include more than 2,000 square metres of resident amenities, including a resort-style pool, gym, sauna, private cinema and rooftop entertaining spaces overlooking the harbour and coastline.&nbsp;

The development is also within walking distance of the Newcastle Interchange, Honeysuckle, Darby Street, the harbour foreshore, restaurants, retail and the city’s beaches, continuing the walkable lifestyle that existing GWH buyers say has transformed how they live.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356826]

For Keith, the appeal remains straightforward.

"You feel at home even before you've moved into your home."

For Aimee, the change is measured in time.

“I just felt like I had more time,” she says.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351102]

Construction at ERA is now underway, with more than half of the residences already sold and limited two and three-bedroom apartments remaining in the East Tower release. Priced from $980,000 for two-bedroom residences and $1.46 million for three-bedroom residences, buyers can secure an apartment with a 10 per cent deposit, with premium homes offering ocean views from Level 8 and harbour views from Level 10.

ERA is also backed by Resilience Insurance's 10-year Latent Defects Insurance policy, providing protection against structural or waterproofing defects for 10 years after completion. The project is anticipated to be completed in early 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135096]

Joel Robinson

From ONE to ERA: Why buyers are choosing GWH again in Newcastle West

Virgate Property Group is preparing to commence construction of Verdé, its new apartment development in Melbourne's Arts Precinct at Southbank, following a strong run of sales that has seen more than half of the project's 173 apartments secured.

Verdé has attracted a broad mix of first home buyers, owner-occupiers upgrading from nearby inner-city suburbs and investors, with younger owner-occupier couples aged between 28 and 45 accounting for the strongest enquiry. Many are already living in Southbank, South Melbourne, Albert Park, Port Melbourne, South Yarra and the CBD.

"Verdé is located in one of the most desirable pockets of southern Melbourne," Blair Property Group Director Darren Blair, who is managing sales at Verdé, said.

"It's within walking distance of the Arts Centre, Royal Botanic Gardens, Albert Park Lake, and Southbank's restaurants and retail. It's a great lifestyle location with strong amenity and liveability, which made it a very attractive choice for the project."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372549]

Virgate was already familiar with the precinct, having previously delivered the successful Domain House development in neighbouring South Melbourne. That experience gave the developer confidence to acquire the Coventry Street site and continue expanding its presence in Melbourne's inner south.

"We had been keeping an eye on the site and the broader precinct for a few months before deciding to move forward with the acquisition," Virgate said.

The project was ultimately secured in 2020 following feasibility studies, planning assessments and due diligence, with the brief centred on delivering "a high-quality, considered design that feels both refined and fit for purpose."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=314259]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bruce-henderson-architects">Bruce Henderson Architects</a>, Verdé comprises 173 one, two and three-bedroom apartments priced from $599,000. The architecture is distinguished by a faceted glass façade that responds to both the site's outlook and Melbourne's changing light conditions.

According to Bruce Henderson Architects, the coloured glazing gives the building a distinctive identity while also providing privacy and solar shading, with residences oriented to capture views across the bay, city skyline and surrounding parklands.

Inside, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/designoffice">DesignOffice</a> has created interiors focused on natural light, efficient planning and enduring materials. Apartments feature engineered oak flooring, natural stone benchtops, floor-to-ceiling glazing and SMEG appliances, while a restrained material palette aims to complement the expansive outlooks rather than compete with them.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372550]

Resident amenity has also been designed around everyday functionality rather than occasional use. Facilities include a concierge-serviced lobby, residents' lounge with fireplace, library and co-working space, gym, terrace garden with barbecue facilities, ground-floor café, and package delivery management.

The project's location continues to be one of its strongest drawcards. Positioned on Coventry Street, Verdé sits within walking distance of the National Gallery of Victoria, Arts Centre Melbourne, Royal Botanic Gardens and Albert Park Lake, while Southbank's dining precinct, Sturt Street trams and the new ANZAC Station are all nearby. The surrounding education catchment also includes Melbourne Grammar, Melbourne Girls Grammar, Mac.Robertson Girls' High School and several major university campuses.

The sales team says buyers have responded particularly well to the combination of location, design quality and long-term liveability.

"They're responding really positively to the quality of the design, premium resident amenities and the uninterrupted views. Many also appreciate the location and how connected it is to everything they need."

The ability to secure stamp duty savings before completion has also been a key factor for purchasers, alongside the opportunity to personalise finishes ahead of settlement.

With construction set to commence soon and more than half the apartments already sold, Verdé enters its next phase as one of the Arts Precinct's more established apartment developments, offering remaining buyers an opportunity to secure a residence before construction advances further. Expected completion is scheduled for late 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=4661]

Virgate's Verdé Southbank moves toward construction as sales fly past halfway stage

Downsizer-focused apartment development Kooyongkoot in Hawthorn has been recognised at the 2026 Better Future Melbourne Design Awards, taking home Gold and Silver awards in two categories.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/kooyongkoot-hawthorn-1-kooyongkoot-road-hawthorn-vic-3122">Kooyongkoot</a>, currently being delivered by developer PQD and designed by Cera Stribley, received Gold in the Interior Design – Proposed category and Silver in the Architecture – Proposed category.

The dual recognition reflects the design approach behind the boutique development on prestigious Kooyongkoot Road, where the focus has been on creating homes for downsizers seeking the space, quality and functionality of a detached house within a low-rise apartment building.

Rather than maximising apartment numbers, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/pqd">PQD</a> and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a> limited the development to just 18 residences, allowing for larger floorplans, greater privacy, generous landscaping and expansive communal spaces.&nbsp;The majority of the apartments also benefit from corner aspects, allowing for dual sources of natural light.

Now around 70 per cent complete and on track for completion in November 2026, Kooyongkoot will comprise a mix of garden residences, ter​race apartments, sub-penthouses, and is crowned by two half-floor penthouses with direct lift access and private rooftop terraces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355297]

The Silver Award for Architecture recognised the way the building responds to its prominent corner position at the ent​rance to Hawthorn's Scotch Hill precinct, one of Melbourne's most established residential neighbourhoods.

Rather than competing with the grand homes that line Kooyongkoot Road, the architectural approach focused on restraint and longevity, using curved brickwork, generous landscaping and carefully considered proportions to integrate with the existing streetscape.

"The form feels fluid and timeless, as though shaped by the landscape itself – architecture that belongs, rather than competes," said Chris Stribley, Co-Founder and Managing Principal of Cera Stribley.

The judging submission also highlighted practical innovations throughout the building, including lift cores servicing only nine homes each, a central landscaped lightcourt designed to bring daylight and ventilation into the building, and fully enclosed private storage rooms with lighting, power and shelving to better accommodate residents transitioning from larger family homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355293]

The Gold Award for Interior Design recognised the project's focus on long-term liveability rather than display-home aesthetics.

According to the awards submission, the interiors were designed from the inside out, prioritising how homes would function over decades of daily use through generous proportions, practical storage, durable natural materials and flexible layouts.

The specification includes natural stone throughout, upgraded acoustic glazing, V-ZUG appliances and fully enclosed storage rooms, alongside an amenity offering focused on wellness, entertainment and everyday convenience.&nbsp;

Residents will have access to a gym and yoga studio, a wellness centre featuring traditional and infrared saunas, a cold therapy shower and treatment room, as well as a residents' lounge and golf simulator/cinema room for entertainment.&nbsp;Kooyongkoot has also considered the everyday convenience of its residents by offering a private carwash and pet wash facilities on site as well as dedicated parcel lockers and oversized fully enclosed storage rooms.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355303]

The project's attention to detail has already resonated with buyers. Earlier this year, Kooyongkoot recorded one of Boroondara's highest apartment sales when an $8 million penthouse was purchased by a Melbourne CEO downsizing from a nearby family home.

"Every detail feels deliberate, from the overall design down to the smallest touches," the purchaser said.

"The level of quality and refinement is exceptional, but what really sold it was how liveable it felt... It felt like a place where everything had been considered, not just a luxury building."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355304]

Sustainability also formed a key part of both award submissions. Kooyongkoot is targeting a minimum 7.5-star NatHERS rating across all residences, supported by passive design principles, high-performance glazing, EV charging infrastructure, water reuse systems and a wellness model focused on lower-energy dry facilities rather than pools and large wet areas.

Located within walking distance of Scotch College, Methodist Ladies' College, Koo​yong Lawn Tennis Club, Aubur​n Village and Camberwell Junction, Kooyongkoot continues to target owner-occupiers looking to remain in Melbourne's inner east without compromising on space or quality. A limited selection of two, three and four-bedroom residences remains available, with prices starting from $1.9 million.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=102717]

Kooyongkoot wins Gold and Silver at Better Future Melbourne Design Awards

New apartment supply has become increasingly constrained across <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/parramatta-nsw-2150">Parramatta</a> in recent years, with fewer projects progressing through to completion as development conditions have become more challenging.

It makes <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/novm">NOVM</a>'s 2021-completed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/the-lennox-parramatta-12-phillip-street-parramatta-nsw-2150">The Lennox</a> one of the most recently completed residential towers on the Parramatta River, and among the newest apartment developments in Sydney's second CBD.

With the project largely completed before the sharp escalation in construction costs and inflation following the pandemic, The Lennox is now offering pricing that would be difficult to replicate in a comparable new development in Parramatta today, or across much of Western Sydney.

The majority of the 413 apartments at The Lennox sold before and shortly after completion. A limited release of the remaining apartments has recently been brought to market by capital partner <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/equitifund-group">Equitifund</a>, with entry-level pricing from $700,000 and two-bedroom apartments available from under $1 million.

Rising above the Parramatta River at 12 Phillip Street, The Lennox comprises one, two, three and four-bedroom apartments, appealing to first home buyers, young professionals, families, downsizers and interstate investors seeking a completed apartment in one of Australia's fastest-growing economic centres.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=372394]

Rather than positioning Parramatta as an alternative to Sydney's CBD, Equitifund believes the city has reached a point where it stands on its own merits.

"Parramatta is no longer simply an alternative to Sydney CBD, it's becoming a destination in its own right," Equitifund Executive Chairman Greg Huxley said.

"The Lennox captures that evolution with a level of quality and amenity that's difficult to match at its price point."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=953]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/marchese-partners">Marchese Partners</a>, the tower responds directly to its riverfront setting through expansive glazing and open-plan layouts that maximise views across the Parramatta River and city skyline. Interiors feature engineered timber flooring, stone benchtops, stainless steel appliances and floor-to-ceiling glazing, while generous balconies extend the living spaces outdoors.

Marchese Partners says the project was conceived to balance high-quality apartment living with practical, long-term functionality, pairing larger, efficient floorplans with amenities more commonly associated with five-star hotels.

That emphasis continues through the resident facilities, which include a 20-metre rooftop swimming pool, fully equipped gym and wellness spaces, full-time concierge, a residents' lounge, function room, private lifts, secure basement parking and rooftop communal areas overlooking the Parramatta River. Ground-floor boardwalk retail and dining further activate the riverfront and integrate the building into the surrounding public realm.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=925]

Australian housing and finance group Equitifund has secured the remaining apartments, believing there are few completed apartment opportunities in Parramatta that offer the same combination of location, amenity and pricing.

Equitifund National Sales Director Ben Hamblett says buyers are increasingly recognising that premium apartment living no longer needs to come with Sydney CBD pricing.

"The Lennox is where aspirational living becomes attainable," Hamblett said.

"Wake to river and mountain views, step into Sydney's Second CBD, and arrive home to resort-calibre amenities, all without the harbour price tag."

Hamblett says owner-occupiers are also attracted by the convenience of having Westfield Parramatta, Church Street's dining precinct, Parramatta Park, Riverside Theatres, Western Sydney University and major transport connections all within walking distance.

"At The Lennox, lifestyle is not an afterthought, it is the foundation."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=5374]

The Lennox places residents within walking distance of Parramatta Square, Westfield Parramatta, Church Street Eat Street, Parramatta Station, the ferry wharf, Light Rail, the future Sydney Metro West, Parramatta Park and CommBank Stadium, reinforcing Parramatta's position as one of Australia's most connected metropolitan centres outside Sydney's CBD.

Equitifund says buyers visiting the display suite consistently comment on the quality of the finishes, generous floorplans, river and skyline views, and the walkability of the location. The project has attracted a broad mix of local professionals, upsizers, downsizers, buyers relocating from Sydney's inner suburbs and interstate investors seeking long-term growth opportunities.

That demand aligns with Parramatta's continued evolution as an economic powerhouse. Equitifund Research and Market Insights specialist John Bekiaris says sustained population growth, infrastructure investment and expanding employment opportunities continue to support long-term housing demand across the city.

"Parramatta has evolved from a satellite city into one of Australia's most important economic centres. Population growth, infrastructure investment and employment are all supporting sustained long-term housing demand."

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=5743]

The apartment price gap drawing Sydney buyers west

A luxury beachfront apartment at Rainbow Bay has more than doubled in value since it sold off the plan six years ago, setting a new local apartment record in the process.

The three-bedroom apartment in the Flow development on Petrie Street, the first of four new projects locally by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects, has sold for $7.4 million, after originally selling for $3.27 million when the project launched in 2020.

The seventh-floor apartment, comprising 187 sqm of internal living space and a 54 sqm balcony overlooking Froggies Beach and Snapper Rocks, was purchased by a local family.

The transaction was negotiated by Pezet Matheson director Kerry Pezet and equates to more than $30,000 per sqm.

Pezet said the sale reflected the limited opportunities to buy into the boutique beachfront development.

"The sale highlights the rarity of opportunities within the boutique beachfront development, where residences seldom become available," Pezet said.

"Flow is one of the Gold Coast's most tightly held buildings. Buyers from our database move quickly when residences become available, and achieving an off-market sale at $7.4 million demonstrates the depth of demand for property of this calibre."

<img alt="Flow" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c585b206-2130-4eee-a50c-3f27c51a7c70" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-06%20at%208.33.25%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=m3pHRDV62Y3fvN.XQuQHq.52ilTWpRLf" />

Flow was the first of four luxury apartment developments delivered by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects at Rainbow Bay and was completed in 2023.

Positioned on the beachfront overlooking Snapper Rocks, the residence includes three bedrooms, three bathrooms, a powder room and views stretching north along the coastline towards Surfers Paradise.

Pezet Matheson Residential principal Mitchell Lambert said buyers continued to prioritise quality beachfront apartments in tightly held locations.

"Flow Residences offers a rare combination of elevated beachfront positioning, architectural excellence, comprehensive resident amenity and premium finishes, which is exactly what discerning purchasers are seeking," Lambert said.

"The transaction further reinforces Rainbow Bay's reputation as one of Australia's premier coastal lifestyle destinations, where limited supply and growing demand continue to support strong market performance."

Pezet Matheson originally marketed and sold out Flow off the plan, making the latest transaction a return to one of the project's original buyers.

Paul Gedoun is selling his third project, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/radia-rainbow-bay-271-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Radia Rainbow Bay</a>, after recently completing, and selling out, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/esprit-217-227-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Esprit</a>. He has plans for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/first-look-s-s-projects-proposes-88-apartment-wellness-tower-at-coolangattas-boundary-street">fourth building</a>, 88 apartments on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/209-213-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Boundary Street</a>.

Rainbow Bay apartment doubles in price since off the plan sale during pandemic

<html><body>
CBA, the nation's largest mortgage lender, is axing residential and commercial loans for self managed super funds (SMSF).
The bank will be withdrawing its SMSF lending product, SuperGear, from October 12.
Westpac Group, the nation's second largest mortgage lender, already pulled out of the sector in July.
But the Australian Financial Review said the move had shocked mortgage brokers and financial advisers. 
"We are seeing the writing on the wall for leveraged SMSFs," said Sally Tindall, director of research for RateCity, which monitors rates for financial service products. 
"This calls into question the viability of the leveraged SMSF sector."
"CBA has decided to withdraw its SMSF lending product that allows SMSF trusts to purchase both residentially and commercially secured properties," a spokesman said.
"This is part of our strategy to become a simpler, better bank.
"We are streamlining our product portfolio and have decided to discontinue SuperGear."
The bank said it will be writing to customers who hold a SuperGear loan outlining the changes.
It will continue to support existing loan accounts.
Regulators fear problems arising from SMSF investors leveraging their superannuation to invest in a single residential property because of the lack of diversification and increasing dangers of loss in a falling property market where it is difficult to find tenants. 
A key finding of the David Murray-led financial system inquiry in 2014 was that leverage should be banned in superannuation funds to mitigate the risk of financial instability.
The government rejected his advice.
Nearly $700 billion is held in SMSF funds by more than one million investors.
During the past four years the number of members investing in property has increased from about 3.6% to 6.9% of SMSF fund assets.
</body></html>

j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Leveraged SMSF sector in doubt as CBA scraps SMSF lending

<html><body>
Australia’s property market isn't going to crash, according to the Commonwealth Bank economist Gareth Aird.
Nor even a hard landing, but something not too dissimilar to the corrections of 2010 and 1989, he said.
But he has forecast that house prices in Sydney and Melbourne will continue declining until the end of next year.
“We (CBA) see the peak to trough being around 10% in Sydney and a little less in Melbourne (8.8%)," he told Business Insider.
Click <a href="https://edge.alluremedia.com.au/uploads/businessinsider/2018/09/CBA1.jpg" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge
<div>
<img src="https://edge.alluremedia.com.au/uploads/businessinsider/2018/09/CBA1.jpg" alt="">Source: Commonwealth Bank
</div>
Aird’s model is calculated as a function of the four variables listed below.
1. Annual changes in mortgage rates (1 year advanced);
2. The annual change in the flow of credit (six months advanced);
3. Auction clearance rates (four months advanced);
and 4. The house price expectations index from the Westpac/Melbourne Insitute consumer sentiment survey (2 months advanced).
He concedes that “predicting property prices can look foolish retrospectively”.
However, the chart below shows that the four leading indicators outlined above track actual movements in house prices “very well”.
<div>
<img src="https://edge.alluremedia.com.au/uploads/businessinsider/2018/09/CBA2.jpg" alt="">Source: Commonwealth Bank
</div>
“Clearly, we can’t forecast auction clearance rates or the household perception around the future path of dwelling prices.”
CBA’s base case is that Sydney home prices will decline by 5% annually in 2018 — a relatively mild assessment given the latest weekly data from CoreLogic Sydney house prices are currently 5.9% lower than this time last year.
That would take overall declines from Sydney’s July 2017 peak to around 7.5%.
“For Melbourne, prices would be down by around 5% from their November 2017 peak,” Aird said.
“Nationally, we think prices will end the year down by around 3% with a roughly similar outcome likely in 2019."
Aird noted the broader economy outside of housing is still performing well, along with the continued strength in Australia’s labour market.
He expects the unemployment rate will decline further which lowers the risk of mortgage defaults.
There’s Australian rate of population growth, he added.
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CBA's Gareth Aird forecasts 10 percent decline in Sydney house prices into 2019

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
The Commonwealth Bank of Australia reported its full year results last week.
<div>Cash profit for FY2018 of $9.41 billion was down 4.7 per cent. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>But overall this remained a solid underlying result with a fully franked dividend of $4.31 per share heading the way of investors (up 2 cents or +0.5 per cent...thanks!). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Increased funding costs impacted net interest margins adversely as expected.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, the group more than made these costs back in the financial year through changes in the funding mix and the repricing of investor and interest-only loans.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In fact, the net interest margin was up 5bps over FY2018 to 2.15 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Group loan impairment expense was also very low, at just 15bps.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Note that the Group will adopt AASB 9 from 1 July 2018, and therefore total provisions will increase to reflect forward-looking factors as required by the standard (this adjustment will will pushed through opening retained earnings and therefore will have no impact on the current year income statement). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>'As if' earnings</div>
<div> </div>
<div>A number of one-off items including the $700 million AUSTRAC penalty reduced the statutory NPAT and cash NPAT.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Excluding one-off items, cash profit was up by 3.7 per cent to above $10 billion.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>From the slide deck</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There were so may great slides in the full year preso that's it's impossible to know where to start, but here are just a select few. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>90+ day home loan arrears were notably up a bit year-on-year from 0.6 per cent to 0.7 per cent. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Click to enlarge</div>
<div> </div>
 
<div><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-NikJ1XTC2aM/W2obenRu8FI/AAAAAAAAra0/Bu_BuRukzkwr3D1deQO6h0gvC7zNKaT1ACLcBGAs/s640/CBA1.jpg" width="640" height="510" data-original-height="646" data-original-width="810"></div>
 
<div>(Source: ASX: CBA)</div>
 
<div>The year-on-year increase in arrears was mainly due to Western Australia and the Northern Territory, with changes elsewhere relatively benign. </div>
 
<div><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-BPTlAOXy52Q/W2obesMjuDI/AAAAAAAAraw/-PYHhx5N81AQ0yr6tGOyTwhmdVcTyqm9gCLcBGAs/s640/CBA3.jpg" width="640" height="374" data-original-height="738" data-original-width="1257"></div>
 
<div>The switching of interest-only (IO) loans peaked in September 2017. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>There is still plenty of scheduled IO expiry over the next two financial years, however, with the blue bars arguably representing the loans most at risk of arrears (being IO loans to investors). </div>
 
<div><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-oV4exYg2jIY/W2obf3MIo_I/AAAAAAAAra8/NGaVAzwTFF8L3X27_sdVCv1GdNukH2T6wCLcBGAs/s640/CBA4.jpg" width="640" height="276" data-original-height="643" data-original-width="1490"></div>
 Home loan repayments in advance remain popular, though not for all borrowers. 
<div><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-zmTCKRUK6YA/W2ocvV3VTBI/AAAAAAAArbY/bIkgLBE06_Ak3f32pJmK2CLHaDUB__-mgCLcBGAs/s640/CBA7.jpg" width="640" height="330" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="1454"></div>
 
<div>Finally, CBA optimistically notes that outside recessions or global financial crises modern housing downturns generally only last about 8 months on average (so on that basis, this one should be about done).</div>
 
<div><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-baZfqx1F2yk/W2obgIOcIrI/AAAAAAAArbE/cfkEW3UjyasvCcohNfaoPV3nTBFD9zsgwCLcBGAs/s640/CBA6.jpg" width="640" height="330" data-original-height="796" data-original-width="1536"></div>
 PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.
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WA home loan arrears still problematic for CBA: Pete Wargent

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The Commonwealth Bank of Australia has posted a full-year cash profit of $9.233 billion, down some 4.8 percent.
The last time the bank posted a weaker profit was in 2009.
The result includes $400 million in regulatory costs. The decline was mostly driven by a $700 million penalty paid to AUSTRAC after it breached anti-money laundering laws.
CEO Matt Comyn said the results concluded what had been "a difficult 12 months" for the bank.
"I wanted to start by thanking all of our people right throughout the business who have worked incredibly hard in challenging circumstances to deliver a result of $9.2 billion, which at a headline level is down 4.8 percent, although there has been a number of one-off items that have impacted the result, including a couple of large penalties that we have resolved," said Comyn.
"If you strip some of those out, actually the result looks more from an underlying perspective up 3.7 percent."
Comyn said he recognised the impact the bank's mistakes were having on customers.
<div data-module="video" data-class="video-js video-js--network" data-param-page-name="finance:finance:home:default" data-video="5778774177001" data-category-name="MSNVideo_Cat" data-category-value="ausydney" data-sticky-enabled="false" data-sticky-target-selector=".layout__utility" data-show-description="data-show-description">
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<div id="player_vl6eu" lang="en-au" data-param-page-name="finance:finance:home:default" data-param-video-name-prefix="finance|" data-param-ad-unit="finance/web" data-video-id="5778774177001" data-player="H190EXsjW" data-account="664969388001" data-embed="default">"We just have to recognise we have not done a good enough job for our customers. We got some things wrong. We have made mistakes," said Comyn.</div>
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</div>
"We absolutely need to make sure we do not make them again. And a big part of my job of course is making sure we are a simpler and better bank for our customers, working closely with any customers who have not had a good experience, but most importantly making sure that those sorts of issues do not recur.
"Ultimately it is going to be something that our customers need to decide, and I am very comfortable, and feel very accountable, for ensuring that we deliver great experience and outcomes for our customers over the long term."
The Commonwealth Bank board declared a full year, fully franked dividend of $4.31.
It noted switching from interest-only mortgages was stressing some borrowers.
The number of home loan borrowers late on repayments spiked, but Comyn said customers have been able to get payments back on track by paring back their spending elsewhere.
CBA advised a 10 basis point increase in the number of customers more than 90 days late on their home loan repayments - from 0.60 per cent to 0.70 per cent of borrowers. 
<div>
Comyn said he did not expect the arrears levels would deteriorate further and that "over time, the customers adjust to the new payments".
Analysts asked Mr Comyn about the rising arrears during the results briefing, with Macquarie's Victor German observing the number is a "historical leading indicator for deteriorating credit quality". 
CBA is the largest mortgage lender in Australia, with 1.5 million home loan accounts with a total balance of $374 billion.
Of these, 64 per cent of borrowers are owner occupiers. 
Some 30 per cent of CBA mortgage customers are on interest-only loans, down from 39 per cent a year ago. 
</div>
<div>Around 27 per cent of CBA's interest only borrowers are expected to switch to principal and interest loans in FY2019 with the bank writing to interest only borrowers 12 months before their loans reset to warn them of the changes.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The AFR noted the briefing was advised 79 per cent of customers coming to the end of an interst only period have an opportunity to extend the interest-only terms for a further year. </div>
<div>
CBA said the uptick in mortgage arrears reflects "pockets of stress" in the economy, mostly in Western Australia, where the bank saw "continued softness in outer metro and regional" areas rather than mining towns, and in the Northern Territory, where its small book was hit by rising unemployment as resource projects were completed.
</div>
 
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CBA profit dips for first time in decade as mortgage arrears spike

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<div>
CBA, the nation's largest residential property lender, is set to cease its low documentation products.
The bank is removing low doc products for all home owner, investment loan and line of credit applications.
</div>
<div>
<div id="article-inline-ad">Low doc were aimed at self-employed and small business owners who may not have access to the financial statements and tax returns usually required when applying for a home loan.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"From September we will be streamlining our suite of products to deliver a simplified and competitive range," the spokesman told The Australian Financial Review.</div>
</div>
<div>
<div>
Other products to be removed include the one-year guaranteed rate, seven-year fixed rate, 12 month discounted variable rate, rate saver, three-year special rate saver and no fee loans.
</div>
<div>The changes, to start September 29, follow a decision to spin off its wealth management and mortgage broking business along with overhauling the way it rewards mortgage brokers to emphasise "value rather than volumes."</div>
</div>
<div>
Brokers account for about 43 per cent of CBA's mortgage flows, compared with ANZ's 56 per cent, Westpac's 46 per cent and National Australia Bank's 42 per cent, according to recent independent analysis by Morgan Stanley.
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CBA to stop low doc loans

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New Zealand businessman Sir Ralph Norris is selling his luxury Darling Point garden duplex seeing as he's now spending more time in his home country.
The former CBA chief, who earlier this year stepped down as the boss at Fletcher Building, paid $5.15 million in 2006, the same year he was appointed a distinguished companion of the New Zealand Order of Merit.
He bought it from the rag trading Gazal family.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/5/31/NORRIS2.jpg" alt="">
The <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/%20https:/www.realestate.com.au/property-apartment-nsw-darling+point-128467602" target="_blank">Darling Point duplex</a> has three bedrooms and three bathrooms.
It has views from Rushcutters Bay to the city skyline.
Every room opens to the wrap-around landscaped alfresco spaces. The entry level with second living area opens to a heated swimming pool.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/5/31/NORRIS3.jpg" alt="">
Ballard Property agents Mark Lowe and Amanda Cook have a June 23 auction.
They describe it as a first-class entertainer.
Norris took the top job at CBA in 2006.
 
 
 
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Former CBA chief lists Darling Point duplex

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Matt Comyn has been promoted internally to be named Commonwealth Bank's new chief executive.
The 20 year Commonwealth Bank veteran, who had been head of the retailing banking arm, will replace Ian Narev in April.
Narev announced last August he was to step down from the position.
It comes after a series of money-laundering scandals hit the retail banking arm.
Comyn is set for a bumper pay day, and will earn $2.2 million a year, with potential bonuses taking his yearly salary up to closer to $8.4 million.
One of Comyn's responsibilities as head of retail banking was the rollout of the ATM machines which were central to the money-laundering charges.
Commonwealth Bank chair Catherine Livingstone released a statement to the ASX, citing Comyn's mix of attributes as key to his appointment.
"His mandate is to continue to make the necessary changes to ensure CBA remains a leading bank with an unwavering focus on its customers and delivering outcomes for our shareholders, while achieving the highest operational standards unequivocally fulfilling our regulatory responsibilities," Livingstone said.
"Matt's appointment will enable a smooth transition to new leadership, as CBA responds to the current regulatory processes and legal proceedings, accelerating the related changes and improvements already underway."
 
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Matt Comyn, the Commonwealth Bank veteran made new chief executive

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Western Australia has the most problem home loans in Australia for the country’s largest mortgage lender, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
While home loans in WA only account for 16 per cent of the total for the bank, the proportion of loans that are 90 days or more behind in repayments jumped by a quarter from close to 1 per cent in December, the bank's results for the year to June showed.
WA has a 1.23 per cent arrears rate in home loans, twice the national average, reported The Australian Financial Review.
The state’s housing market is still feeling the shocks from the end of the mining boom. Perth house prices fell 1.8 per cent to a near-five-year low of $555,788 in the June quarter even as unit prices rose 1.1 per cent to $377,823, data from Domain show.
CBA had a 25.2 per cent share of the country's total home loan market as of June.
Though the bank reported a better-than-expected $9.9 billion profit for the year to June its retail banking expenses rose 5 per cent to $699 million, mainly due to sluggish conditions in the largest two resource-dependent states.
Expenses rose in that category "as a result of higher arrears and losses for home loans and consumer finance, predominantly in WA and Queensland", the bank said.
CBA’s total home loan balance rose 7 per cent from a year earlier to $485.9 billion driven by strong growth in retail banking, New Zealand and its Bankwest unit, it said.
At the same time, the bank’s exposure to Sydney’s apartment market has grown. While apartment developments accounted for 36 per cent of its total $12.3 billion residential book, Sydney made up 61 per cent – or $2.8 billion – of that. 
The bank’s exposure to the Melbourne apartment market was $900 million, while Brisbane at $300 million and Perth with $200 million were way behind.
"Weighting to Sydney [is] increasing as exposures to other capital cities reducing proportionally quicker," the bank said.
Over the six months to June, CBA reduced the value of its apartment development exposure by $700 million, or 14 per cent, to $4.5 billion.
The bank said it had a "lower" portfolio loan-to-value ratio of 59 per cent.
 
 
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

WA home loan arrears twice of national rate: CBA

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The Minutes of the August Board meeting were a low key affair, as anticipated.
There has been plenty of communication from the RBA over the past two weeks including the August Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP) and RBA Governor Philip Lowe’s appearance before the House of Representations Standing Committee on Economics.
In that context, today’s Minutes were unlikely to contain any major surprises.
On Friday, the Governor endorsed market pricing that the next move in rates is up when he said, “the current market pricing implies a greater probability of a rate rise than a rate reduction, I think they are reasonable assumptions and I don't want to dissuade them.”
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/15/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-15%20at%201.12.37%20pm.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/15/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-15%20at%201.12.37%20pm.jpg" alt="">
This view was backed up in today’s Minutes as the Board dropped their reference from the July Minutes around developments in the labour market continuing to warrant careful monitoring.
For the record, in the July Minutes it was stated that: “the outlook for growth and inflation meant that developments in the labour and housing markets continued to warrant careful monitoring.”
In the August Minutes that statement was tweaked to, “members regarded conditions in the housing market and household balance sheets as continuing to warrant careful monitoring”. This is a less dovish stance.
But we don’t think it materially changes the outlook for rates; it simply validates current market pricing.
The Board continues to sound relatively upbeat on recent developments in the global economy.
In particular, it was noted that, “economic conditions had strengthened over the prior year and the improvement had broadened beyond international trade.”
A gradual increase in global inflation is forecast despite wage growth and core inflation remaining “subdued” as labour market have tightened.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/15/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-15%20at%201.12.46%20pm.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/15/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-15%20at%201.12.46%20pm.jpg" alt="">
The Bank’s assessment of the domestic economy contained nothing new compared with the August SMP.
But on the outlook for inflation, the Board noted that some forthcoming ABS rejigging with the CPI weightings will lead to slightly lower reported inflation from Q4 2017.
This information was incorporated into the RBA’s latest inflation forecasts and doesn’t appear to have meaningfully impacted their numbers.
On housing, the Board suggested that, “conditions had eased since late 2016” in Sydney in Melbourne.
We are not as convinced as the Board.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/15/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-15%20at%201.12.57%20pm.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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In our view there is very little evidence that conditions in the Sydney and Melbourne housing markets have cooled. In fact, after a seasonal slump in prices in May, the annual growth rates of dwelling prices have accelerated in Australia’s two largest cities.
From a monetary policy perspective, today’s Minutes were never going to be the most important event on the domestic economic this week.
Updates on wages {Wage Price Index (16/8) and Average Weekly Earnings (17/8)} and employment (17/8) are more significant.
There has been some genuine strength in the monthly employment reports over the past four months which means there has been a gradual tightening in the labour market.
But it remains to be seen if it will generate any lift in wages growth.
As a result, the data to come over the next 48 hours is particularly important.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/15/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-15%20at%201.13.06%20pm.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/15/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-15%20at%201.13.06%20pm.jpg" alt="">
From our vantage point, we think that we are still some way from labour market slack being eroded sufficiently to put genuine upward pressure on wages.
As a result, we see policy on hold until deep into 2018.
Gareth Aird is a senior economist at the <a href="https://www.commbank.com.au" target="_blank">Commonwealth Bank</a>.
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Cash rate to stay steady this year and into next: CBA's Gareth Aird

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Australia is experiencing a long-running residential construction upturn, beginning around mid-2012.
Residential construction tends to be very sensitive to interest rates.
So falling interest rates from late 2011, combined with strong population growth, increased foreign demand and pent up demand from underbuilding in previous years meant that a boom was inevitable.
This building boom came at a very beneficial time and helped to offset some of the negative effects from the decline in business investment as the mining construction boom wound down.
The leading indicators of building activity suggest that the current residential construction boom has peaked.
So in this note we take a look at how the economy has benefited from the latest construction cycle and how it’s likely to fair as activity slows.
A typical residential construction upturn has both direct and second-round benefits.
The direct benefits include the additional building activity as well as the jobs created to undertake the additional building work.
Second-round benefits include additional spending elsewhere in the economy as a result of this new construction employment.
For example, spending on furnishings and household appliances for use in the new dwellings.
And then the additional employment as a result of this spending.
In terms of the direct benefits, residential construction upturns since the late 1970’s have on average contributed 2.2 ppts to GDP (chart 1).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/15/Chart-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/15/Chart-1.jpg" alt="">
The latest cycle has added 1.6 ppts.
Upturns also contribute to jobs growth. Employment in residential construction, has expanded by 38%, or by 31.2k jobs since 2012 (chart 2).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/15/Chart-2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/15/Chart-2.jpg" alt="">
This is well above the 6.4% growth rate for total employment over the same time frame.
These jobs have been concentrated in NSW, Victoria and Queensland where the bulk of the residential construction has taken place (chart 3).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/15/Chart-3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/15/Chart-3.jpg" alt="">
Other building construction jobs, which may include some workers employed in residential construction, have also expanded strongly over the latest residential construction upturn, with 38k extra jobs.
Jobs in construction services have also grown a little faster than total employment growth. Although this includes jobs related to all types of construction activity.
This expansion (and likely contraction) in residential construction jobs is much smaller than the rise in mining sector jobs during the mining boom.
We discuss this more in the next section.
The ABS has estimated that every $1m spent on residential construction generates 17 jobs on a full-time equivalent basis.
This includes jobs in the construction industry as well as the additional jobs outside the industry created as a result of flow on spending.
Spending on dwelling construction has risen by $6.2bn over the cycle so far.
So according to these multiplier effects approximately 105k jobs in total have been added to the economy.
The ABS has also estimated other second round benefits.
For instance, for every $1 spent on residential construction, $1.31 worth of spending is generated elsewhere in the economy.
One area where we have seen this extra spending show up is in the category of household furnishing and fittings including household equipment, floor coverings, household appliances and tools.
Since the latest residential construction boom began, spending in these categories has lifted by 17.5% compared to 10.7% for total household consumption spending (chart 4).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/15/Chart-4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/15/Chart-4.jpg" alt="">
This has been a positive for the retail sector which has faced many headwinds in recent years.
Other beneficiaries of residential construction booms are the State governments who collect stamp duty revenues.
The NSW, Victorian and Queensland State governments have all had solid growth in stamp duty revenues from the sale of residential properties.
Large house prices gains, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne, and decent turnover has also boosted stamp duty revenues.
In NSW, for example, stamp duty revenues have more than doubled over the past six years and now make up 32% of tax revenues compared to 22% in 2010/11.
We think the latest residential construction cycle has peaked. Residential building approvals peaked in August last year and have fallen by around 10% since then (chart 5).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/15/Chart-5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/15/Chart-5.jpg" alt="">
However the pipeline of activity remains at record highs which means we are likely to see another quarter or two of growth in construction work done (chart 6).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/15/Chart-6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/15/Chart-6.jpg" alt="">
We also saw a weather-related fall in residential construction activity in Q1.
This means that we are also due some payback in Q2.
However we think the downturn in the latest residential construction cycle will be gradual, and we expect an extended plateau where residential construction activity remains at a high level over 2017 and into 2018.
This is because a much larger share of approvals have been for multi-units than in previous booms (chart 7).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/15/Chart-7.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/15/Chart-7.jpg" alt="">
Multi-units have a much longer build time, averaging 6 quarters, compared to 2-3 quarters for detached houses.
Indeed some high rise apartments can take 2-3 years or more to build.
This prolongs the construction cycle.
On average, residential construction downturns have subtracted 1.5 ppts from growth.
Our forecasts running to the June quarter 2019 have dwelling construction subtracting just 0.5 ppts from growth.
The smaller subtraction from growth than average reflects the fact the upturn was a little smaller.
Also, strong population growth has lifted underlying housing demand.
We estimate that underlying demand now sits at 185k compared to 155k in mid-2012 at the start of the boom.
This means that the “normal” level of construction activity necessary to meet demand is higher than it was a start of the upturn.
We also expect renovation activity to pick up.
The fact that interest rate are likely to remain low for quite some time is also a factor behind our forecasts for a relatively shallow downturn.
We expect the RBA will leave the cash rate on hold until late 2018.
And that the tightening cycle from there on will be fairly cautious.
In terms of the number of dwelling commencements we expect a slowing to 200k in 2017/18 down from 217k in 2016/17.
And then a further decline to 185k in 2018/19.
For employment, we expect that job losses will occur fairly gradually alongside the gradual decline in activity.
This will help the labour market better absorb these workers.
There are a number of other reasons to expect that the disruption from the downturn in residential construction jobs to be minimal.
Firstly, the jobs downturn will be largest in NSW, Victoria and Queensland, the States where the lion’s share of building activity and gains in residential construction jobs have taken place.
These States all have decent population growth.
And two out of three of these States, NSW and Victoria have strong jobs markets. In NSW the unemployment rate is under 5%, and at a level consistent with full employment.
In Victoria, employment has been growing a solid pace and well above the national average.
Employment growth has also picked up in Queensland in recent months.
Secondly, both NSW and Victoria have also seen a lift in non-residential building approvals (chart 8).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/15/Chart-8.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/15/Chart-8.jpg" alt="">
So additional employment in the non-residential sector may provide a partial offset to some of the jobs losses in residential construction.
In fact the ABS estimates show that the multiplier effects from non-residential construction activity are even larger than for residential construction.
They estimate that $1m spent on non-residential construction generates 24 jobs on a full-time equivalent basis.
And for every $1 spent on non-residential construction, $1.47 worth of spending is generated elsewhere in the economy.
Thirdly, all three of these States have a large pipeline of infrastructure spending still to come from their respective State governments which should also add to jobs growth, especially construction.
The Federal government is also planning a large amount of infrastructure spending over the next 10 years which will also boost employment across the country.
Renovation activity should also provide an offset to lower new residential construction activity.
Renovations usually account for a little above 40% of residential construction activity.
However the share is now very low by historical standards (chart 9).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/15/Chart-9.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/15/Chart-9.jpg" alt="">
Current rates of spending on renovation activity also look low relative to house price growth (chart 10).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/15/Chart-10.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/15/Chart-10.jpg" alt="">
Strong house price growth usually encourages more spending on renovations.
There should be some catch up in renovation spending over the next few years.
Comparing to the recent ramp up and then decline in mining sector jobs, the decline in residential construction jobs will be much smaller.
Mining employment trended higher over a nine year period, rising from around 80k in 2003 to reach a peak of around 275k in mid-2012.
Since the peak of the mining boom around 50k jobs have been lost.
Although more jobs losses are likely as the construction of LNG facilities wind down.
These jobs losses have been concentrated in WA and Queensland. Queensland has had a construction boom and growing tourism sector to help offset lost mining jobs and activity.
But for WA there has been little in the way of other growth drivers to take the place of mining.
As a result economic conditions have been very soft for a number of years in WA.
In terms of the retail sector, a return to more normal growth rates for spending on household furnishings, furniture, appliances and other goods, would be another headwind for the retail sector to contend with.
Kristina Clifton is an economist with the <a href="https://www.commbank.com.au/" target="_blank">Commonwealth Bank</a>.
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