&nbsp;

Developer GURNER™ Group has revealed $1.65 billion in residential sales nationally across the 12 months to December 2025, driven largely by the continued momentum of its Docklands wellness-focused precinct, Elysium Fields.

The sales result was generated across seven projects in Victoria and New South Wales, headlined by Elysium Fields, GURNER™’s $2.75 billion mixed-use precinct planned for Harbour Esplanade in Docklands.

The project has recorded more than $500 million in sales across the first three towers, equating to around 580 apartments sold.

The first tower, Helios, has now sold out of its 240 private residences, with GURNER™ preparing to release a premium penthouse collection comprising 15 three-bedroom penthouses in coming weeks.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370975]

Elysium Fields is being developed on the long-held 20,000 sqm Docklands site at 208-226 Harbour Esplanade, which had remained undeveloped for more than two decades prior to GURNER™ taking over the project around four years ago.

Construction has now commenced across four towers ranging between 18 and 30 storeys, with Hamilton Marino and Maxcon appointed as builders.

Once complete, the precinct is expected to comprise around 1,100 residences, alongside retail, hospitality and public realm uses integrated throughout the site.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370981]

Designed by Fraser &amp; Partners in collaboration with GURNER™ Design House, the project has been positioned around the developer’s broader focus on wellness-led residential living.

“We don’t sell apartments. We create a true luxury lifestyle that simply doesn’t exist elsewhere in the market today,” Founder and Executive Chairman Tim Gurner said.

“To deliver that requires an extraordinary level of detail, coordination and discipline across multiple verticals, from design and hospitality through to wellness and service.”

“We’ve always believed that living extends far beyond the physical residence. It’s about how you feel the moment you arrive, how you live day-to-day, and the ecosystem that supports that.” 
[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370977]

The project’s design places a heavy focus on landscaping, wellness amenities and biophilic design principles.

Plans include around 3,700 sqm of landscaped gardens and open space throughout the precinct, alongside a retail and dining offering spanning approximately 5,000 sqm.

The broader public realm strategy centres around what GURNER™ describes as the “Path of Life”, an urban forest and landscaped pedestrian environment intended to connect the various buildings and wellness spaces across the precinct.

The apartments themselves will incorporate a range of wellness-focused inclusions, including purified air and water systems, circadian lighting, antimicrobial surfaces, and optional in-home wellness upgrades.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370980]

Gurner said the company’s experience through its Saint Haven wellness clubs had directly informed the residential offering now being incorporated into Elysium Fields.

“We’re seeing a clear global shift toward longevity, performance and proactive health,” Gurner said.

“Our role is to deliver that in a way that feels seamless, highly private and beautifully resolved within the environments we create.”

A large component of the wellness offering is planned through the resident amenity and health facilities proposed within the precinct.

That includes plans for bathing and recovery facilities spread throughout the towers, incorporating mineral pools, saunas, steam rooms, flotation therapy, red light therapy and wellness lounges.

The developer is also seeking approvals for what it describes as a “reverse ageing medical clinic” within the precinct.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370978]

According to project information released by the group, the proposed facility would include cryotherapy, IV infusion therapy, infrared and dry saunas, PEMF beds, MRIs, DEXA scans, brain scans and blood analysis services.

Within the first tower, Helios, residents will also have access to a dedicated amenity offering known as the Sky Private Club.

The upper 15 levels of the building will include private lounges, dining spaces, rooftop amenities and optional private wellness studios integrated within residences.

The Helios tower itself comprises 260 apartments ranging between 60 sqm and 300 sqm, including a collection of penthouses.

That includes a planned two-storey penthouse spanning around 600 sqm with uninterrupted bay views.

The Elysium Fields precinct is being delivered in partnership with Digital Harbour Holdings, a consortium that includes the Liberman family, which controls the development rights across the Docklands site.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370979]

The sales result comes as GURNER™ continues expanding its national development pipeline beyond Victoria.

“We have a strong pipeline across Australia and are now focused on scaling into key markets including New South Wales and Queensland, while continuing to build on our Melbourne base,” Gurner said.

“We currently have more than $3 billion in the market, growing to over $5 billion by October, and expect to materially outperform last year in the 2026 calendar year.”

The result also reflects the continued strength of the upper-end apartment market in Melbourne, particularly for owner-occupier-focused product with large-scale amenity and lifestyle offerings.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=144441]

Record result anchored by the Group’s “utopian” Elysium Fields precinct – defying market headwinds in Docklands.

Joel Robinson

Elysium Fields drive Gurner to $1.65 billion in apartment sales over 2025

National Australia Bank (NAB) will fund <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/palmera-residences-gold-coast-18-garfield-terrace-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Palmera</a>, a $1 billion, 52-level luxury residential tower being developed by Central Equity in one of the Gold Coast’s most tightly held coastal locations at Northcliffe.

The project, launched recently by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/central-equity">Central Equity</a>, one of Victoria’s largest private residential developers, comes at a time when construction funding for large residential developments has become increasingly competitive as lenders tighten exposure to the sector.

Multiplex has been appointed the builder, and construction is now underway.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365784]

Since its first project, Central Equity has delivered more than 85 residential developments with a combined end value exceeding $8 billion.

Palmera reflects Central Equity’s growing focus on the Gold Coast luxury apartment market and continues a relationship between Central Equity and NAB that dates back to the late 1980s, when the bank funded one of Melbourne’s earliest inner-city residential towers at a time when high-rise apartment living in the CBD was largely unproven.

“NAB’s funding of Central Equity’s $36 million CBD development in the late 1980’s to the financing of the billion-dollar tower today highlights the long-term relationship between the two organisations in delivering major residential projects” said Central Equity Founder and Chairman Eddie Kutner.

He said NAB’s early support was instrumental in helping establish the company’s development model.

“When we commenced our first residential tower in the late 1980s the concept of funding off-the-plan apartments was still largely untested in Australia,” Kutner said.

“NAB recognised the opportunity early and supported the project when others were uncertain. That relationship has now continued for more than 37 years across many developments.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365771]

Central Equity was established in 1987 when Melbourne’s CBD and Southbank precinct were still dominated by warehouses and commercial buildings. Fewer than 100 residents lived in Southbank at the time, and large-scale residential development in the inner city was not widely considered.

Recognising changing demographics and lifestyle preferences, the company began developing high-rise residential projects designed to bring permanent residents into the city centre.

Central Equity has provided accommodation for approximately 40,000 residents across Melbourne’s CBD and Southbank, while also incorporating supporting infrastructure including essential lifestyle facilities like retail spaces, childcare facilities and neighbourhood activity centres.

Central Equity has spent many years assembling the Palmera development site on the corner of Garfield Terrace and Frederick Street in Northcliffe, creating a supersite of around 3,300 sqm.

The developer said the Palmera apartment tower reflects its long-term view of the Gold Coast as a growing and increasingly diversified economy.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365768]

Supported by infrastructure including the light rail network, major road upgrades expanded education, hospital and medical facilities and continued expansion at the Gold Coast Airport with more internation and domestic flights.

Positioned in the tightly held Northcliffe precinct, the 52-level tower will deliver 347 apartments, targeting buyers seeking a high-end coastal lifestyle, from downsizers to interstate investors.

Designed by Marchese Partners with interiors by DBI, Palmera has been conceived as a next-generation residential offering, featuring a collection of oversized apartments, with premium three-bedroom residences offering sweeping northern views stretching from Surfers Paradise through to Burleigh Heads.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=108274]

NAB funds $1 billion Surfers Paradise apartment development, Palmera

Two years after completing one of the newest developments in North Sydney, developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/aqualand-australia">Aqualand</a> is turning its attention to the rapidly evolving St Leonards apartment market.

The developer, which completed AURA by Aqualand on North Sydney's Walker Street, has lodged plans for a 5,918 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/33-37-herbert-street-st-leonards-nsw-2065">33-37 Herbert Street, St Leonards,</a> seeking approval for a pair of residential towers rising above a shared podium opposite Royal North Shore Hospital.

The proposal forms part of the broader transformation underway across the St Leonards-Crows Nest precinct, where former industrial and commercial sites are increasingly being redeveloped into high-density mixed-use projects tied to major transport infrastructure.

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2cc428cf-fe70-4cac-9cd5-264ad53af62c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.56%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=otKSnHtbjAvAddOnovyXQMgcAwE6DMe1" />

According to the planning documents, the site sits “within the St Leonards–Crows Nest Strategic Centre, identified by the NSW Government as a key area for accommodating future jobs and housing across Sydney.”

The proposal has been designed by fjcstudio, formerly FJMT Studio, and is being progressed through the State Significant Development pathway due to its scale and affordable housing provision.

The scheme would comprise 413 apartments, including 46 affordable housing units, alongside retail and commercial uses fronting Herbert Street. The project would also include communal open space, landscaping, a swimming pool, gymnasium, children’s play areas and podium-level resident amenities.

Planning documents show the development would consist of a part-13, part-39 storey tower form positioned above a four-storey podium.

“The development comprises a unified podium that activates the street interface, and two setback towers to accommodate new housing supply while maintaining an appropriate human scale at ground level,” fjcstudio noted in its Design Report.

The northern and southern towers have been shaped to respond to the surrounding skyline while also limiting overshadowing impacts to nearby public open space, particularly Talus Reserve.

The design report said the differing tower heights were intended to “contribute to a varied skyline while responding to the surrounding built form context and solar access considerations.”

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="36da62dc-ff9e-41f2-a7e3-7be38373751c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.45%E2%80%AFAM_0.png?VersionId=Mo6Rp2r.XRLTzIfg_PEEpw8NepDH8UBs" />

The site sits directly opposite Royal North Shore Hospital and within walking distance of both St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.

While the site itself sits just outside the formal Crows Nest Transport Oriented Development boundary, the planning documents repeatedly reference its alignment with the broader TOD objectives reshaping the Lower North Shore.

“The site is located adjacent to St Leonards Station and in close proximity to Crows Nest Metro which is within the Crows Nest Transit Orientated Development Accelerated Precinct which has been identified by the NSW Government to support housing delivery,” the Design Verification Statement noted.

According to fjcstudio, the project has been designed to respond to the broader transition occurring across St Leonards, where increasing residential density is being concentrated around transport infrastructure and employment hubs.

“The broader precinct is undergoing significant change, with a mix of existing mid-rise buildings and newer high-density developments,” the report stated.

“Recent and approved projects indicate a consistent shift toward taller built form, typically organised as tower-and-podium typologies with more active ground levels.”

The proposal includes close to 6,000 sqm of retail and commercial space across the ground floor and podium levels, designed to create a more activated street edge along Herbert Street.

Aqualand’s plans would also introduce a landscaped podium shared between the two towers, with communal open space in the form of a podium rooftop designed to support resident interaction and improve urban greening outcomes. The scheme would also introduce pocket parks at the northern and southern ends of the site, including a landscaped area at the corner of Herbert and Ella streets designed to improve pedestrian amenity and soften the streetscape.

&nbsp;

The proposal is being progressed through the NSW Government’s Housing Delivery Authority pathway, which was introduced to accelerate housing supply across the state. The application was declared State Significant Development in April 2025 following an expression of interest process.

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="faf6d97d-2671-454f-b85a-fe1c6a7be608" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.49%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=diVd28OBVr5.YV.7prrOz.uAanwwwm7a" />

St Leonards has been particularly active with new developments in recent weeks. Developer SP Setia’s <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-sp-setia-targets-st-leonards-skyline-with-40-storey-tod-tower">plans for a new 42-storey tower</a> recently went on exhibition through the same pathway, while <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">Stockland’s 52-storey tower proposal</a> was also recently unveiled.

Aside from the St Leonards project, which is expected to take around nine months to move through the approvals process ahead of a potential 2027 launch, Aqualand is also preparing to launch Boronia, a new apartment project in Roseville comprising around 111 apartments on Larkin Street.

The developer also has approvals in place for the next stage of the Barangaroo precinct, which will feature new residential, retail, hospitality and community uses, alongside a new metro entry across the five-hectare site.

More than 50 new retail destinations are planned for Central Barangaroo, alongside a 270-metre-long boulevard connecting Hickson Park to Nawi Cove. Together with Harbour Park, more than 50 per cent of the precinct will comprise public open space and parkland.

First look: Aqualand joins St Leonards apartment party

<section data-scroll-anchor="false" data-testid="conversation-turn-5" data-turn="user" data-turn-id="e65dbe94-e3b6-47f7-b62a-9cbb30c9bf79" data-turn-id-container="e65dbe94-e3b6-47f7-b62a-9cbb30c9bf79" dir="auto">Time &amp; Place’s plans to transform the former David Jones factory building in Surry Hills into a mixed-use residential precinct have gone on exhibition through the NSW Government’s In-fill Affordable Housing pathway.</section>

<section data-scroll-anchor="false" data-testid="conversation-turn-6" data-turn="assistant" data-turn-id="request-WEB:f4d533b7-64a5-413d-86fd-5c99649c2b73-2" data-turn-id-container="request-WEB:f4d533b7-64a5-413d-86fd-5c99649c2b73-2" dir="auto">
The Marlborough House proposal, lodged for the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marlborough-house-47-97-marlborough-street-surry-hills-nsw-2010">47-97 Marlborough Street</a> site, would see the adaptive reuse of the heritage-listed warehouse building alongside the construction of new residential additions and a separate apartment building on the northern portion of the site.

The proposal seeks approval for 172 apartments across three buildings, including 15 per cent affordable housing managed by a community housing provider for at least 15 years from occupation.

<img alt="Marlborough" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="5d1d3c2a-bf13-47d6-a335-7c01102cdee1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.29.36%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=cjMYrbR.BLUlWH4dar0RVDDo0bG.u2YT" />

Interior view from the Northern Building Penthouse overlooking the park

&nbsp;

The redevelopment is planned for the prominent 3,413 sqm site bounded by Marlborough Street, Goodlet Street and Lansdowne Street, directly opposite Eddie Ward Park and around 200 metres from the Surry Hills light rail stop.

Time &amp; Place acquired the former David Jones building in 2024, marking the first time the property had changed hands in around 50 years.

Designed by Wardle, the proposal centres around the adaptive reuse of the former David Jones factory, originally constructed between 1913 and 1935 in the Inter-War Chicagoesque architectural style.

Wardle noted in its Architectural Design Report that the building “occupies a significant place in the industrial and cultural history of Surry Hills” and at its peak was “the largest department store manufacturing facility in Australia, employing over 800 people and fuelling the growth of Sydney’s fashion and retail industries.”

The practice said the project positions itself “not as an isolated intervention, but as a contributor to the civic, social, and architectural grain of the precinct.”

The proposal would deliver 75 apartments within the retained southern heritage building, 59 apartments within the central addition, and a further 38 apartments within the new northern building fronting Lansdowne Street.

Planning documents show the scheme would comprise a mix of heritage apartments, new-build apartments, townhouses and penthouses.

<img alt="Marlborough" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="57758518-40a3-4b83-958c-d06e96a2cffa" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.29.42%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=VerlX9ST5xgBi8.1_YRsqdWTJeT6ygjs" />Interior View of the Heritage Building Apartment

The development would also include a ground-floor retail tenancy on the corner of Marlborough and Lansdowne streets, rooftop communal open space, a landscaped pedestrian link along the western edge of the site, and basement parking accessed from Lansdowne Street via a car stacker system.

&nbsp;

The scheme emerged from a competitive design process run by Urbis, with Wardle ultimately selected as the winning architect ahead of FJC Studio, TZG, Architectus and Wilkinson Eyre.

The Design Integrity Panel later described several aspects of the Wardle scheme as fundamental to the project, including “the stepped character of the new addition to the north of the site”, the landscaped western pedestrian link, and the “garden arrival” experience separating the original Marlborough House from the heritage addition.

Wardle’s design heavily references the site’s industrial and heritage history, while also responding to the surrounding Surry Hills streetscape.

The Architectural Design Report describes Surry Hills as “a finely grained neighbourhood with beautiful and expressive brickworks throughout the suburb,” with the proposal introducing a material palette intended to sit comfortably alongside the existing warehouse fabric and neighbouring terraces.

The report also outlines the project’s relationship with Eddie Ward Park and the broader landscape context of the area.

“Marlborough House occupies a site of deep cultural memory and the neighbouring Eddie Ward Park is of local ecological significance, where natural systems, topography, and stories have long shaped human experience,” Wardle noted in the report.

The architects said the proposal sought to “rebind built form to Country” through landscape, materiality and the adaptive reuse of the heritage structure.

<img alt="Marlborough House" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="9ae3f2f9-c85f-477a-a6f8-b43f6cb97c41" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.29.53%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=B.qUCLqRvJOR.n9CvYcTpaknIX9LuqKZ" />

The project is also being progressed under the NSW Government’s in-fill affordable housing provisions, allowing developments that include affordable housing to access additional height and floor space incentives.

Under the plans, 2,593 sqm of the project’s floor space would be dedicated to affordable housing, slightly exceeding the required 15 per cent threshold.

In its Design Excellence Strategy, Urbis said the project aimed to “sensitively adapt and enhance the heritage-listed building on site through alterations and additions that preserve its historical significance” while delivering “high-quality market and infill affordable housing development in Surry Hills.”

Time &amp; Place has been one of the most active developers nationally in the last 12 to 24 months. Late last year they completed&nbsp;The Queensbridge in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/southbank-vic-3006">Southbank</a>, a mixed-use tower with 353 apartments and a hotel. They are currently selling Park Modern, 246 apartments near the famous Botanic Gardens in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/south-melbourne-vic-3205">South Melbourne</a>, and have future projects, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-wilmot-173-burke-road-28-hope-street-glen-iris-vic-3146">The Wilmot</a>&nbsp;in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/glen-iris-vic-3146">Glen Iris</a>, the redevelopment of the Northcote Plaza, and another tower in South Melbourne.

The developer broke into Sydney just a few years ago with Two Tides in Manly. They have another project nearby, which is at the ultra-luxury end of the market on&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/shoreline-manly-beach-89-90-north-steyne-manly">North Steyne</a>, fronting the beach.

It is also continuing to work through the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-time-place-settles-on-design-for-the-chimes-potts-point-redevelopment">redevelopment of The Chimes building</a> on Macleay Street in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/potts-point-nsw-2011">Potts Point</a>, as well as a project on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/time-place-to-take-on-mosman-apartment-market">Mosman's Redan Street</a>.
</section>

First look: Time & Place unveils Marlborough House redevelopment designs for former David Jones warehouse in Surry Hills

The residential transformation of St Kilda Road is set to continue into with more new apartment plans for the sought-after boulevard.

Wing Tai Asia has lodged plans for a major residential tower at 464-466 St Kilda Road, replacing the former VACC House with an 18-storey mixed-use development designed around a retained heritage podium and a sculpted contemporary tower.

The proposal, prepared under Victoria’s Significant Residential Development with Affordable Housing pathway, would deliver 325 apartments and ground-floor retail across the prominent 4,653 sqm boulevard site in Melbourne’s St Kilda Road North Precinct.

The project centres on the adaptive reuse of the site’s heritage-listed VACC Building, an eight-storey office designed by Bernard Evans that has occupied the address for decades. Planning documents state the development would involve “carefully dismantling and conserving off-site the original metal fabric of the podium visible from St Kilda Road,” before reinstating it as the defining frontage of the new scheme.

Above the restored podium, Wing Tai is proposing a curvilinear residential tower. The scheme includes 172 one-bedroom apartments, 63 two-bedroom apartments, 66 three-bedroom apartments, and 24 four-bedroom apartments, alongside two ground-floor food and beverage tenancies fronting St Kilda Road.

The tower has been designed with substantial articulation and variable setbacks to minimise perceived bulk and maintain view corridors along the boulevard. Urbis, which prepared the planning report, said the design “has been significantly articulated through a curvilinear design” with “an interplay with materials, façade expression and depth” to create visual separation and visual interest.

The proposal also includes 254 basement car spaces, landscaped pedestrian links connecting St Kilda Road and Queens Lane, and a biophilic landscape strategy featuring canopy trees, raised planters, cascading greenery and a glass oculus pool overlooking the eastern frontage.

Planning documents confirm the $270.1 million development will contribute 3 per cent of project costs to the Social Housing Growth Fund as part of the application process.

Wing Tai acquired the St Kilda Road property in 2018 alongside Abacus Property Group for $95.38 million, before later consolidating ownership of the site. The property previously served as the Victorian Automobile Chamber of Commerce headquarters for around 60 years.

The transformation of the St Kilda Rd boulevard is already beginning to materialise, with a number of high-profile projects recently completed, launched, or approaching launch as developers continue to back the long-term appeal of the precinct.

Among the most notable recent completions is Louise by Samuel Property Group, just off the strip on Queens Lane, the same pocket Hirsch &amp; Faigen recently launched The Queensbury. Mirvac is too on the same street with The Albertine, which is approaching completion.

Dexus recently secured approval for its slice of St Kilda Road, while Gurner also has approved plans for the precinct.

Wing Tai unveils 325-apartment St Kilda Road tower on former VACC House site

Cameron Kusher

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Many Australian’s would like to live in the inner city areas of their capital city where the amenities are most abundant, but sadly the cost of housing is generally restrictive.
According to the RP Data Home Value Index results for July 2014, combined capital city home values increased by 10.2% over the 12 month period. The greatest annual increases in values have been recorded in Sydney (14.8%) and Melbourne (11.0%). In all other capital cities the total value growth over the past year has been less than 7%.
A familiar trend we are witnessing across most cities is that demand for housing is particularly strong across the inner city areas of the city. With mortgage rates low, buyers are battling it out to purchase those homes close to the city centre. Of course areas closer to the CBD tend to be much more expensive than those areas further away. Inner city suburbs are also generally better serviced by both essential and desirable amenities such as: schools, medical services, shopping centres, social amenity, roads and public transport infrastructure.
In certain capital cities the cost of housing is restrictive in these areas due to a high level of demand which has pushed housing costs out of the reach of many perspective buyers. Coupled with high demand is inherently low levels of supply; it is much more challenging to release new detached close to the city due to the limited availability of developable land. Of course there remain alternative options such as units however even units in certain cities have restrictive price points.
Looking at those suburbs with the most affordable median value within a 10 kilometre radius of the CBD across the cities we can see a large divergence in results. For example, in Sydney <a href="/news">Wolli Creek</a> has the lowest median house value at $710,303 (not very affordable) and in Melbourne the most affordable suburb is <a href="/news">Bellfield </a>at $533,252. In most other capital cities, except for Darwin the starting point for a house is significantly lower. Of course, in many cities these areas are less desirable than other inner city suburbs however, they remain close to the city and potentially have scope for urban renewal over the coming years.
Turning to the unit markets, home values are typically much more affordable closer to the city centre than they are for houses. Again, this doesn’t mean that they are affordable or practical for everyone. It is also interesting to note that the divergence in results from city-to-city. For example <a href="/news">Kilburn</a> is the fifth most affordable suburb for houses in Adelaide with a median of $349,925. The most affordable suburb for units in Sydney’s inner city is <a href="/news">Eastlakes </a>with a median of $452,776 which is significantly higher than the median house value of Kilburn. Nevertheless, the median value of units is much lower than the median house values across most cities. No wonder we are seeing such a rise in inner city unit construction with so much demand and a lower price point compared to comparable houses.
RP Data anticipates that home values in inner-city areas are likely to continue to increase, particularly as mortgage rates remain at such low levels. As a result more and more potential buyers are likely to be priced out of the inner city housing market. This creates some good opportunities for other areas of the city to see increased demand.
If buyers can’t afford to purchase a home within the inner city, they will most likely look to those locations that tick as many of the inner city boxes, just at a lower price point than the inner city areas. Given this, suburbs with features such as: quality public transport connections, abundant retail and social amenity, quality schools and medical amenity will likely see renewed interest as inner city buyers look to these more affordable alternatives.
<img src="https://image.e.rpdata.com/lib/fe591570776d03757d17/m/7/2014-08-15--most-affordable-inner-suburbs.jpg">
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ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Australia's most affordable inner city suburbs

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Rising home values across most capital city regions has meant that it’s now becoming even more difficult to find capital city homes under $400,000.
Across the combined capital cities, 28% of homes sold over the 12 months to June 2014 were priced below $400,000. In regional areas, the figure was a much higher at 63.9%. Over the past decade, the property market experienced a substantial reduction in housing under $400,000. 10 years ago, 69.3% of capital city home sales and 86.4% of regional home sales were below $400,000.
Over the three months to June 2014, the combined capital city median house price was $550,000 while the median unit price was $475,000. Given the median is the middle sale price over the period, this indicates that over the three month period, an equal number of homes sold above this figure.
<img src="/images/2014/08/28/kusher-aug-28-one.jpg" alt="">
A rise in capital city home values of 10.1% over the 12 months to June 2014 indicates the difficulty being experienced by price-sensitive purchasers looking to enter the housing market - this is most felt in Sydney and Melbourne where home values have increased by 15.4% and 9.4% respectively over the year to June.  
And while properties in Australia’s regional areas may be more affordable, the downside is a lack of employment.  Recent employment data from Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) confirmed that across most states, unemployment is lower in the capital cities than in regional markets. The exceptions are Queensland where the unemployment rate is 6.4% in both Brisbane and regional Queensland, and in SA where Adelaide’s unemployment rate is 6.8% compared to 6.4% in regional SA. Although housing might be much more affordable outside of capital cities, job prospects are not as strong.
If we consider the growth in home values and the selling prices of homes, it indicates a shortening supply of more affordable homes.
Looking at the proportion of capital city homes selling below $400,000 over the 12 months to June 1999, in each city the vast majority of homes sold within that price point.  
Five years on, the June 2004 results show a decline in home sales under $400,000. Despite the decline, Sydney houses were the only city and property type with less than half of all sales occurring under $400,000. According to the RP Data Home Value Index, combined capital city home values increased by a total of 87.9% over the five years to June 2004.
Between June 2004 - 2009, combined capital city home values increased by a total of 27.4%.  Although overall value growth was much more moderate than the previous five years, a sharp decline in sales of homes under $400,000 was recorded by June 2009.  Less than half of all house sales in Sydney, Brisbane, Perth, Darwin and Canberra were below $400,000 over the year. In each city a majority of unit sales were under $400,000.
Over the 12 months to June 2014, Hobart was the only city with a majority of house sales under $400,000.  Within the unit market, a majority of sales in Brisbane, Adelaide and Hobart were below $400,000.  According to the RP Data July Home Value Index results, combined capital city home values increased by a total of 22.1% over the five years to June 2014.
Although home value growth has moderated over each of the past two five year periods, the supply of homes selling at lower price points (i.e. less than $400,000) has also fallen.  
Housing is Australia’s single largest asset class and for most people, it’s where they store the majority of their wealth. For those who don’t own their home, it’s a very different story.
In a rising market where home values are increasing, all this is great news for those that own a home but makes entering the housing market more difficult for those that don’t.
Affordable housing is the way that most first time buyers enter the market.  With the supply of affordable homes within capital cities shortening significantly, the prospects for first home buyers entering the market are also diminishing. Based on these conditions, we’re expecting the typical age of first home buyers to increase and first home buyer purchasing to remain at below average levels.
<img src="/images/2014/08/28/kusher-aug-28-two.jpg" alt="">
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The rapidly shrinking pool of affordable housing

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The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) released their quarterly Authorised Deposit-taking Institution (ADI) Property Exposures data for June 2014 yesterday.
The data always provides a valuable insight into current and historic mortgage lending by ADIs. This quarter’s data showed some very interesting trends.
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3648" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Chart-11.jpg" alt="Chart 1" width="500" height="181">
Based on the value of all outstanding mortgages by households to Australian ADI’s, there $811.7 billion outstanding to owner occupiers (66.2%) at the end of June 2014 and $413.5 billion to investors (33.8%). Over the 12 months to June 2014, the total value of outstanding mortgages to owner occupiers has increased by 7.5% compared to a 10.9% rise in outstanding credit to investors.
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3649" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Chart-21.jpg" alt="Chart 2" width="500" height="181">
At the end of June 2014, 36.0% of loans outstanding had an offset facility, up from 34.0% a year earlier. 35.7% of all outstanding mortgages were interest-only which was the highest on record and up from 34.3% a year earlier. 
Just 0.2% of all outstanding mortgages were reverse mortgages and 2.9% were low documentation which was down from 3.9% a year earlier. Other non-standard loans accounted for just 0.1% of all outstanding mortgages.
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3650" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Chart-31.jpg" alt="Chart 3" width="500" height="180">
The average balance on all outstanding mortgages at the end of June 2014 was $237,200.  The average balance has increased by 3.2% over the past year.  Loans with an offset facility ($282,900) and interest-only mortgages ($299,000) have much higher average outstanding loan balances.  It is interesting to note that the annual growth in average outstanding loan balances has been much more moderate for mortgages with an offset and interest-only mortgages at 1.6% and 1.8% respectively.  Encouragingly, the data also indicates that outstanding balances are reducing for low documentation and other non-standard loans as they become less common.  Over the past year the average balance has fallen by -3.5% for low-documentation loans and by 5.9% for other non-standard loans.
Turning the focus to new loans written over the June quarter, 62.1% of lending was to owner occupiers and a record high 37.9% was to investors.  Compared to the June 2013 quarter, owner occupier lending is up 2.0% and investment lending is 14.4% higher.
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3651" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Chart-41.jpg" alt="Chart 4" width="500" height="179">
Over the quarter, 0.7% of new loans approved were low-documentation, 43.2% were interest only, 0.2% were other non-standard loans, 43.0% were third party originated loans and 3.7% were loans approved outside of serviceability.  The 43.2% of new loans which were interest only was a record high, interest only loans tend to be (but not always) reflective of lending for investment purposes. 
The ADIs seem to be increasing the usage of their broker channels with the 43.0% of loans originated by third parties the highest proportion since June 2008.  Although only 3.7% of loans were approved outside of serviceability over the June quarter, this was the highest proportion on record. 
This may indicate that there has been some relaxation of lending standards over the quarter, however it is difficult to conclude any firm conclusions.  Nevertheless it is something to keep an eye on over the coming few quarters.
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3652" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Chart-51.jpg" alt="Chart 5" width="500" height="183">
Looking at the loan to value ratios (LVR) of loans written over the June quarter, 24.0% of new loans had an LVR of less than 60%, 42.2% of loans had an LVR of between 60% and 80%, 21.3% had an LVR of between 80% and 90% and 12.5% had an LVR of 90% or more. The 12.5% of new loans with an LVR of more than 90% is the lowest proportion since June 2011. This suggests there are proportionally less high-risk mortgages being written.
The data has certainly shifted quite significantly over the past quarter and year. There is definitely a significant level of activity by investors and clearly ADIs appear happy to lend to them.  The rise in the proportion of new loans written outside of serviceability is a potential concern. However, it is positive to see that the proportion of loans with an LVR of 90% or more falling.  The high level of interest only lending is also a cause for concern.  Of course interest rates are currently very low but such a high level of interest only lending in light of low interest rates may cause some issues when rates eventually start to rise.
As we have mentioned previously, the high proportion of investment lending is our biggest cause for concern in the current market. The lure of strong capital growth in Sydney and Melbourne is attracting the attention of investors as risk-free investments offer very low returns. 
Of course, that growth in values won’t continue forever and once it slows or values fall our chief concern remains that many investors may look to exit the asset class.  Should this occur, inner city unit markets (where investor activity is most prevalent) could see a more significant drop in values than they otherwise would have as investors exit at a time when demand also falls.  This scenario could have greater repercussions for the overall market, not just the inner city areas.
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The high proportion of investment lending remains our biggest cause for concern

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Australia’s million dollar property club hit new heights this year in what can only be described as an explosion in the number of suburbs nationally with a median value in excess of $1 million over the past year.
Sales data to June 2014 confirmed that there are now 417 suburbs nationally which boast a median value of $1 million or more, up from a healthy 312 for this time in 2013.
While Sydney claimed majority market share to make it to the million dollar club with 22 suburbs ranked in the top performing list out of 25, while Perth had two suburbs and Melbourne had just one.
<img src="/images/2014/08/21/rp-data-aug-21-one.png" alt="">
RP Data’s July combined capital city home values index shows that values increased by 10.2% over the 12 months to July 2014. As a result of robust growth, the cost of housing has increased and subsequently, there was a significant increase in the number of suburbs with a median value of $1 million or more.
As at June 2014, there were 397 suburbs nationally with a median house value of $1 million or more and 20 suburbs for units. The 417 total suburbs with a median value of $1 million or more is the highest number over the past five years.  
The number of suburbs with a million dollar price tag for houses increased by 104 over the past year while for units; the number is up by five. New South Wales in particular recorded the most substantial increases in million dollar suburbs over the past year.  
The number of New South Wales suburbs with a median value of $1 million or more is up 42% over the year.  Across the other states, there’s been a 24% rise in Victoria, 25% rise in Queensland, 44% rise in South Australia, 22% rise in Western Australia, no change in the Northern Territory and a -11% fall in the Australian Capital Territory. Tasmania has zero suburbs with a median value of $1 million or more.  
The large rise in the number of suburbs with a median value of $1 million or more in New South Wales is reflective of the strong home value growth in the Sydney over the past year.  
Over the 12 months to July 2014, Sydney home values have increased by 14.8%. Proportionately, Sydney suburbs comprise 61% of all $million plus suburbs nationally followed by Melbourne at 14% and Perth at 12%.
Of most significance from today’s million dollar findings, is the rise in the number of suburbs with a median value of more than $2 million. Last year 37 suburbs had a median value of $2 million or more while in June of this year, the number of suburbs had increased to 42.
Clearly, low mortgage rates are creating a surge in market activity. This encourages people to look to upgrading to bigger homes and in more ideal locations. We’re seeing a large slice of this activity taking place within the higher-end of the housing market and as a result, propelling home values higher and into the million dollar realm.
Looking at the suburbs with the highest national median value, Sydney’s <a href="/news">Point Piper</a> remains as the nation’s most expensive housing market.  As at June 2014, houses in Point Piper had a median value of almost $5.7 million. <a href="/news">Woolwich </a>in Sydney was not far behind with a median value of $5.5 million.
Of the 25 suburbs with the highest median value, all suburbs listed were for houses rather than units.  Twenty two of the 25 suburbs listed were in Sydney with one in Melbourne and two in Perth.  
<img src="/images/2014/08/21/rp-data-aug-21-two.png" alt="">
The results show that higher values, particularly in Sydney is becoming more prevalent.  With mortgage rates low and tipped to remain low we would expect that in 12 months’ time we will have even more suburbs with a median value of $1 million or more.  Although we anticipate the rate of value growth is likely to slow over the coming year, we do expect further increases.
A rise in suburbs with a million dollar plus price tag is great for those who own a home in these areas. For those that don’t, it highlights that these buyers have fewer housing options and continue to be pushed further away from the city centre where most of these homes in excess of $1 million are located. 
Photo courtesy of Wikimedia Commons.
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Australia's top 25 most expensive suburbs: RP Data

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Looking at where the most affordable dwellings are within 10 kilometres of each city’s CBD, RP Data’s research analyst Cameron Kusher paints an intriguing picture of each state and territory’s apartment markets.
The list, which spans from Sydney’s cheapest, <a href="/news">Wolli Creek</a> for a $710,303 median house price, to Hobart’s <a href="/news">Clarendon Vale</a>, for a $159,159 median house price, includes the five most affordable suburbs for houses and units within each capital city.
Kusher notes that investors and owner occupiers may be surprised by the data, which suggests affordable inner city options exist.
“We’re witnessing a familiar trend across most cities where demand for housing is particularly strong across the inner city areas of the city,” said Kusher.
“With low mortgage rates, buyers are battling it out to purchase homes close to the city centres - of course areas closer to the CBD tend to be much more expensive than those areas further away.
“Inner city suburbs are also generally better serviced by both essential and desirable amenities such as schools, medical services, shopping centres, social amenity, roads and public transport infrastructure,” he said.
He explained that in Sydney and Melbourne the cost of housing remains expensive, even on this cheapest list, due to high demand and low supply. While units are an alternative to houses for some to access the market, there are still restrictive price points.
He also noted that the cheaper areas that emerged on the list are often seen as less desirable, but are in urban renewal areas. For this reason, he suggests that home values may increase as mortgage rates remain low and buyers are priced out of houses.
“This scenario creates good opportunity for other city areas - if buyers can’t afford to purchase a home within the inner city, they will most likely look to those locations that tick as many of the inner city boxes, just at a lower price point than the inner city areas,” he said.
“Given this, suburbs featuring quality public transport connections, abundant retail and social amenity, quality schools and medical amenity will likely see renewed interest as inner city buyers look to these more affordable alternatives.”
See over page for the city by city breakdown.
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The most affordable inner city suburbs: RP Data’s city by city reveal

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The total value of housing finance commitments increased by 1.0% in June 2014. 
The total value of housing finance commitment is 15.6% higher year-on-year.  Meanwhile the number of housing finance commitments to owner occupiers has increased by 0.2% over the month and has increased by just 2.4% over the 2013/14 financial year.
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3581" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Chart-1.jpg" alt="Chart 1" width="500" height="179">
The total value of housing finance commitments continues to trend higher however; the strength of the investment segment has waned over recent months. 
Over the month the owner occupier segment fuelled the increase with refinances up 1.6% and non-refinances up 1.9% while investment lending fell by -0.3%.It was the first time investment lending has fallen over consecutive months since December 2012. 
Year on year, the value of housing finance commitments is 15.6% higher with owner occupier refinances up 14.8%, owner occupier non-refinances up 9.4% and investment loans rising 23.8%.
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3582" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Chart-2.jpg" alt="Chart 2" width="500" height="181">
As a proportion of total lending, the level of lending for investment purposes remains inflated on an historic basis although it has eased slightly. 
Owner occupier non-refinance commitments accounted for 43.4% of total lending in June compared to 18.1% to owner occupiers for refinances and 38.5% for investors. 
Although investment lending has eased it continues to hover at around its highest levels since late 2003. Remember 2003 was the final days of the housing boom in both Sydney and Melbourne which commenced in 2001.
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3583" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Chart-3.jpg" alt="Chart 3" width="500" height="181">
The number of housing finance commitments to owner occupiers increased by 0.2% over the month and was 2.4% higher year on year. 
The year-on-year increase is the slowest rate of increase since February 2013.  This indicates that although demand for housing demand has increased, the rate of growth in this demand is slowing. 
Looking at the more detailed components, refinance commitments are -0.7% lower over the month and 5.1% higher year on year.  Non-refinance commitments have increased by 0.6% over the month and are 1.2% higher year-on-year.
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3584" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Chart-4.jpg" alt="Chart 4" width="500" height="182">
The number of owner occupier housing finance commitments can be further broken down in to the type of commitments the finance is for.  The three categories we analyse here are: construction of dwellings, purchase of new dwellings and purchase of established dwellings (excluding refinances). 
Over the month, construction of dwellings rose by 1.1%, purchase of new dwellings was 4.6% higher and purchase of established dwellings edged just 0.1% higher. 
Year on year, the market strength has been associated with construction of new dwellings (+17.0%) rather than purchase of new dwellings (-2.1%) and purchase of established dwellings (-1.7%).  In fact the number of owner occupier finance commitments for construction of new homes is at its highest level since February 2010.
Keep in mind that in June 2014, 17.9% of these non-refinance commitments were for construction of dwellings, 8.2% were for purchase of new dwellings and 73.9% were for purchase of established dwellings.
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3585" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Chart-5.jpg" alt="Chart 5" width="500" height="179">
The number of owner occupier housing finance commitments for first home buyers fell by -3.6% in June 2014 and are -6.2% lower year-on-year.
First home buyers continue to play little role in the market, accounting for just 13.2% of total owner occupier housing finance commitments in June. 
Interestingly the average loan size for first home buyers is increasing.  As home values rise they need to borrow a greater amount, this is highlighted by the 7.1% year-on-year rise which is the largest since December 2009.
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3586" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Fianl-chart.jpg" alt="Fianl chart" width="500" height="272">
RP Data’s Mortgage Index (RMI) which provides a lead indicator to the number of owner occupier housing finance commitments indicates that there is likely to be a lift in July.  Activity levels were 6.7% higher in July 2014 compared to June suggesting a likely rise in housing finance commitments over the coming month.
The data shows that while demand for housing finance is holding, we are potentially seeing a slowdown in demand from the investment segment.  Meanwhile demand for owner occupiers is steady, albeit the rate of growth is slowing with the strongest increases arising for those constructing their own home. 
Spring will be the real test for the market from here, investment activity remains elevated, auction volumes and results have been strong throughout winter and we wait to see if this momentum continues for the remainder of the year.  Particularly given that although values are continuing to increase, they are doing so at a more moderate pace than they were throughout late 2013 and early 2014.
Although mortgage demand has picked-up over the past two years, it is important to note that the number of finance commitments remain well below 2009 and much lower than activity levels prior to the financial crisis.
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Housing finance data reveals possible slowdown in investment demand

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The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released building approvals data for June 2014 last week.
National dwelling approvals fell by 5.0% over the month with house approvals falling by -2.6% and unit approvals down -8.4%.  Despite the fall in approvals over the month, a significant number of dwelling approvals remain in the pipeline.  Note that dwelling approvals have now fallen over four of the past five months.
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3549" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Chart-14.jpg" alt="Chart 1" width="500" height="182">
Year on year, dwelling approvals are 16.0% higher in June 2014 than in June 2013. 
House approvals have increased by 12.2% year-on-year while unit approvals have surged by a greater 22.0%. The greater rise in unit approvals compared with house approvals reflects changing lifestyle patterns and greater acceptance of higher density living.  However, a recent analysis we have undertaken indicates units are less likely to be ultimately completed than houses. 
Although the pipeline is strong, it is reasonable to expect that not all of these units will ultimately be constructed.
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3550" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Chart-24.jpg" alt="Chart 2" width="500" height="179">
The month to month dwelling approvals data is quite volatile, given this it is worthwhile looking at the annual number of approvals. 
Over the 12 months to June 2014 there were 108,598 house approvals and 85,067 unit approvals.  With a total of 193,667 dwelling approvals over the year there has been a 20.7% increase in approvals year on year. 
Total annual dwelling approvals are now at their highest level since October 1994.
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3551" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Chart-35.jpg" alt="Chart 3" width="500" height="180">
Focussing on dwelling approvals, across the combined capital city housing markets there were 144,278 approvals over the 2013/14 financial year.  This was an increase of 25.5% over the year and the highest number of annual approvals on record. 
Both Sydney and Perth have also recorded their highest ever number of dwelling approvals over the past year. Over the year there were 69,973 houses approved for construction (+21.3% over the year) and 74,305 unit approvals (+29.8%).
Most individual capital cities have recorded an increase in dwelling approvals over the year with the largest increases recorded in Brisbane (47.1%), Sydney (30.6%), Adelaide (30.4%) and Perth (27.6%).  Darwin was the only city where approvals were lower over the year, down -3.7%. 
Comparatively the annual increase in dwelling approvals has been much lower in Hobart (12.9%), Melbourne (13.9%) and Canberra (22.6%).  Sydney and Melbourne alone have accounted for almost 58% of all capital city dwelling approvals over the year.
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3552" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Chart-43.jpg" alt="Chart 4" width="500" height="180">
As noted earlier, there have been more unit approvals across the combined capital cities than house approvals. 
Over recent years around 98% of house approvals have ended up as completions compared to only 86% of unit approvals.  While units are increasing in popularity there is much less certainty about their ultimate construction than there is for houses. 
Across the cities Sydney had 68.8% of approvals for units and in the remaining cities the figures were: Melbourne (52.9%), Brisbane (56.0%), Adelaide (32.3%), Perth (23.8%), Hobart (11.2%), Darwin (58.7%) and Canberra (61.9%).
Despite the monthly fall, the pipeline of dwellings approved for construction is significant.  It is important to note that over the past five months, dwelling approvals have fallen on four occasions.  This may indicate that the sector has moved through the peak levels of dwelling approvals. 
The strong pipeline of unit approvals, particularly in capital cities, also carries a risk as units are less likely to be ultimately constructed than houses.
Nevertheless, the Reserve Bank stated that with low interest rates they didn’t just want to see higher house prices but also a construction response.  This certainly seems to be how the current conditions are playing out and with population growth recently starting to slow we may start to see an improvement in the alignment between home construction and population growth.
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Unit approvals surge, but uncertainty remains over their construction

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Since the onset of the global financial crisis, migration between Australia’s states and territories has slowed.  
Demographic data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) shows that overseas migrants arriving in the country’s mining states is easing, with most preferring to settle in New South Wales and Victoria.
Over the 12 months to December 2013, there were 235,797 net overseas migrants to Australia while the rate of natural increase was recorded at 160,357.  At a national level, interstate migration cancels itself however, looking at each state you can see that over recent years there are far fewer people moving between the states and territories.
By way of net migration, New South Wales continues to lose residents at a slower rate, while Victoria is the only state where there is a significant rise in the cross border inflow of residents.  
The mining states of Queensland and Western Australia have each seen a fall in both net interstate and net overseas migration over the year. This is a flow on from the slowdown in mining construction activity where activity on these projects move from construction to production which is resulting in lower worker demand.
New South Wales is still seeing a net outflow of residents from the state with a net 11,219 residents leaving the state in 2013.  Over the past 20 years, the outflow of residents has averaged a much higher 18,391 persons.  While the state is seeing some outflow to other states it is well and truly making up for it via the 71,446 net overseas migrants over the year.
<img src="/images/2014/07/31/kusher-july-31-one.gif" alt=""> 
Victoria has recorded an annual average net loss of citizens to other state and territories of 2,278 residents over the past 20 years. Victoria is now attracting a record number of net interstate migrants, with 7,528 new residents moving from other states last year.  Victoria also attracts a significant 62,337 net overseas migrants.
<img src="/images/2014/07/31/kusher-july-31-two.gif" alt=""> 
In Queensland the net inflow of residents from other states and territories is close to a record low. During 2013, Queensland’s net interstate migration was recorded at 6,897 persons compared to a 20 year average of 22,743 per annum. Although Queensland attracted 37,355 net overseas migrants, it is a sharp fall from the 46,161 at the same time in 2012.
<img src="/images/2014/07/31/kusher-july-31-three.gif" alt="">
South Australia has historically shown a much more stable level of population growth. Over the 2013 calendar year, South Australia lost a net figure of 3,994 residents to other states which was slightly higher than the average net loss of 3,263 residents over the past 20 years. Over the 12 months to December 2013, South Australia recorded net overseas migration of 11,872 residents which was slightly higher than the 11,203 over the same period the previous year.
<img src="/images/2014/07/31/kusher-july-31-four.gif" alt="">
Western Australia has seen a downturn in both net interstate and net overseas migration over the past year. Compared to the 20 year average net interstate migration, WA migration is still above average however; it has fallen by -56% over the year to 4,800 persons in 2013. Net overseas migration has also fallen from 56,580 in December 2012 to 45,401 persons in December 2013. 
<img src="/images/2014/07/31/kusher-july-31-five.gif" alt="">
Historically, residents have migrated from New South Wales and Victoria to Queensland and to a lesser degree Western Australia. Since the onset of the financial crisis the outflow of citizens to Queensland and Western Australia has slowed with fewer residents leaving New South Wales and Victoria.  
The sea change phenomenon was a big driver of this migration before the financial crisis. It now seems that when someone has secure employment, particularly in New South Wales and Victoria, they are less inclined to trade that in and move interstate.
With unemployment rising nationally and demand for workers in the resources sector slowing we would expect this trend to continue over the coming year.  In fact the net loss of residents from New South Wales may reduce further and the net gain of residents in Victoria may increase.
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Interstate movements remain low, but Victoria attracting a record number of interstate migrants

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According to the RP Data-Rismark Home Value Index, combined capital city home values fell by -0.2% over the second quarter of 2014. 
With the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) releasing their Consumer Price Index (CPI) data last week, we can see that in ‘real’ terms home values across the combined capitals fell by -0.7% over the second quarter of the year.
CPI is important to consider because raw or nominal figures don’t adjust for the impact of inflation. At a headline level, combined capital city home values have increased by 10.1% over the 2013/14 financial year.  The latest CPI data showed that inflation was recorded at 0.5% over the second quarter and at an annual rate of 3.0% throughout the 2013/14 financial year.
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3530" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Chart-13.jpg" alt="Chart 1" width="500" height="176">
Focusing on the ‘real’ home value growth across individual capital cities we can see some significant variation in value growth, with values actually falling over the year in some cities. 
The above chart details the annual change in capital city home values both in terms of raw change and inflation-adjusted changes.  Although according to the RP Data-Rismark Home Value Index, dwelling values have risen over the year across all cities, when you adjust for inflation values are lower in real terms in Adelaide, Hobart and Canberra.  Not to mention that growth in most other cities starts to look a lot more moderate.
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3531" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Chart-23.jpg" alt="Chart 2" width="500" height="181">
Home values have been rising across the combined capital cities since June 2012 following falls over most of the previous two years.  Across the individual capital cities the timing and magnitude of the falls has varied greatly however, with values rising across the board, home values generally remain well below their previous peak (in real terms) across the capitals. 
In non-inflation adjusted terms home values are higher than their previous peak in: Sydney, Melbourne, Canberra and Perth.  Once you account for inflation, Sydney is the only city where values are currently higher than their previous peak.
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3532" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Chart-34.jpg" alt="Chart 3" width="500" height="289">
The above table highlights the previous quarter in which home values peaked in inflation adjusted terms, the maximum falls in values and the difference in values from the previous peak to June 2014. As you can see, the previous peaks vary dramatically across each city.  
As already mentioned, Sydney is the only city where real values are now higher than their previous peak although it’s important to note that Sydney’s previous peak was all the way back in the first quarter of 2004.  Perth’s market peaked in September 2007 and values are still -9.9% lower, Hobart peaked in December 2007 and values are currently -18.8% lower and Brisbane peaked in March 2008 with values currently -14.5% lower than that level. Across all other capital cities values are below their peak however, the real peak in values occurred following the financial crisis.
It is important to consider the impact of inflation because it highlights the real purchasing power. 
In most cities, despite extremely low mortgage rates and value growth throughout the past two years, values still remain well below their peaks.  For home owners this means the real capital gain from residential property have been quite poor in recent years outside of Sydney and Melbourne.  For people who don’t yet own a home it means that you should be able to purchase relatively more for you money now than you could at the market peak.
The data also shows that interest rates are not necessarily the main driver of why values are currently rising.  If that were the case you would probably expect cities where values peaked much longer ago like Brisbane, Perth and Hobart to have recorded stronger levels of growth. 
Mortgage rates are but one consideration for the home buyer and obviously considerations such as employment, cost of living and housing demand driven through population growth are equal as important of a consideration as mortgage rates when considering whether to purchase or not.
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Inflation adjusted home values are still lower than their previous peak

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The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released housing finance data for May 2014 recently, with the data showing owner occupier housing finance commitments flat over the month.
The data also showed that the total value of housing finance commitments was -0.8% lower over the month.  Although this may be concerning, the number of housing finance commitments remain high and even if we have reached the summit, the RBA would probably be happy were commitments to remain at these current levels.
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3485" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Chart-12.jpg" alt="Chart 1" width="500" height="181">
Over the month of May there were 52,092 owner occupier housing finance commitments, 17,463 of which were refinances and 34,630 which were non-refinances or new loans.
Refinance commitments were 2.1% higher over the month and are 10.1% higher year-on-year. New loan commitments were -1.0% lower in May and are only 2.0% higher over the month. 
Refinance commitments are at their highest level since April 2008 while new loan commitments are -2.5% lower than their recent peak in November 2013. Although owner occupier housing finance commitments are higher over the year they do seem to be at or very close to a peak.
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3486" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Chart-22.jpg" alt="Chart 2" width="500" height="184">
In May, there was $27.5 billion worth of housing finance commitments which was slightly lower than the all-time peak of $27.7 billion the previous month. 
Over the month, owner occupier refinance commitments were up 0.8%, owner occupier new loans were -1.4% lower and investment finance commitments were -0.9% lower. 
Despite weaker results over the month, year on year there have been some significant increases with owner occupier refinances 17.7% higher, owner occupier new loans 8.3% higher and investment loans up 23.8%.  Again the rate of increase has definitely slowed of late potentially pointing to a peak.
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3487" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Chart-33.jpg" alt="Chart 3" width="500" height="182">
Looking at how much housing lending each component is attracting, the data shows that in May 2014, 42.9% of lending was to owner occupiers for new loans, 18.0% was for refinances by owner occupiers and 39.1% is for investment purposes. 
As a proportion of total lending in May, owner occupier non-refinance commitments are at their lowest level on record while refinances are at their highest level since July 2013 and investment lending remains at around its highest level since late 2003.
The pick-up in investment and refinance lending has caused the proportional fall in owner occupier non-refinance lending.  If we exclude lending for refinances, 52.4% of lending over the month was for owner occupiers while 47.6% was for investors. This was equal to the second highest level of lending for investment purposes, behind the 49.0% of all loans to investors in October 2003.
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3489" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Housing-investors-by-state.jpg" alt="Housing investors by state" width="500" height="185">
Lending finance data released by the ABS on Monday for May 2014 revealed that investor activity is significantly higher in New South Wales than in all other states. Nevertheless, New South Wales (29.9%), Victoria (22.5%), Queensland (7.8%) and South Australia (2.1%) have each recorded a year-on-year rise in investment lending. 
Investment housing finance commitments account for an historic high 46.9% of all housing finance commitments in New South Wales and elsewhere the proportions are recorded at: Victoria (39.1%), Queensland (34.4%), South Australia (31.5%), Western Australia (31.0%), Tasmania (13.8%), Northern Territory (40.2%) and the Australia Capital Territory (33.9%). 
The data shows that although investment levels are generally rising, it is much more exacerbated in New South Wales and Victoria which are of course proxies for rising investment in Sydney and Melbourne.
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3488" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Chart-42.jpg" alt="Chart 4" width="500" height="184">
Interestingly when we track the annual change in the value of housing finance commitments, excluding refinances to reflect home sales we can see that it correlates closely with the annual change in combined capital city home values. 
The recent slower rate of growth in capital city home values is happening in concert with a slowdown in the growth in housing finance commitments.
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3490" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Chart-52.jpg" alt="Chart 5" width="500" height="181">
The housing finance data also shows that first home buyers continue to play only a minor role in the housing market. 
In May, the number of owner occupier first home buyer commitments was up 17.1% over the month however, as a proportion of total owner occupier lending activity it remains quite low at just 12.6%.
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3491" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Chart-63.jpg" alt="Chart 6" width="500" height="187">
Across the individual states, the level of activity by first home buyers remains very low in the three largest states (New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland).  Elsewhere the percentage of owner occupier housing finance commitments for first home buyers is lower now than at the same time last year except in Tasmania and the Northern Territory.
Looking ahead, the RP Data Mortgage Index (RMI) indicates a slowing of demand for mortgages in June.  With value growth seemingly having peaked and transaction volumes lower than they were late in 2013 we anticipate that demand for housing finance is likely to remain at fairly similar levels to those current over the coming months.  The real test from here will be throughout the spring selling season when housing demand typically escalates.
With affordability factors anticipated to slow the rate of value growth we may also see slightly lower levels of mortgage demand.  As we have noted plenty of times previously, rental yields are generally low which suggests that most investors are seeking capital growth.  This is further highlighted by the high levels of investment activity in New South Wales and Victoria with Sydney and Melbourne having recorded the greatest increases in home values across the capital cities over the past year. 
The test will be once the value growth in the market abates what then happens with all these investor owned properties?  Do they wait it out for the next growth phase or do they exit the market and move to a more liquid asset class? 
Only time will tell but it is certainly something which lenders and regulators should be considering with such a high level of investment lending currently taking place.
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Cameron Kusher

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